Sorting out the Boston bullpen
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jan 25, 2007 
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Gordon Edes of the Boston Globe adds up the numbers: The Red Sox have nine relievers under Major League contract and nine other relievers on the 40-man roster.
It should be quite a competition in spring training figuring that all out.
Relief pitching is one area of the game, I believe, where past performance is not a great indicator. Outside of closers, trying to predict how relievers will perform from year to year is very difficult.
There are so many variables in terms of how often they’re used, who they’re used against, etc.
Boston could have the best bullpen in the division or the worst. Nobody knows.
Exactly Pete, so why should Cashman get props for acquiring a steady stream of relief pitchers? And why would they make Humberto into one?
who cares, boston sucks and they need more than just a bunch of relief pitchers
“Outside of closers, trying to predict how relievers will perform from year to year is very difficult.”
I’d say: “Outside of Mariano Rivera, trying to predict how relievers will perform from year to year is very difficult.”
We’ve been spoiled with arguably the two greatest relievers in history (Mo and Goose, unless I’m forgetting someone), but even most top flight closers have a short shelf life (think Gagne and Foulke just in recent years).
Well, the general rule of thumb is that the more innings your starters pitch, the better your relievers’ stats will be. Look at Cliff Politte in 2005. He posted a 2.00 ERA and every starter dominated that season. In 2006, the starters for the most part struggled and Politte did so badly that I don’t think he’s even with the team anymore.
There are notable exceptions to this rule, of course. Closers tend not to fall under this rule of thumb (Chris Ray, Danys Baez in 2005), and guys like Rafael Soriano and Bob Howry still did well despite being on mediocre teams last season. But for the most part, a starting rotation that can eat innings will usually result in a better bullpen.
Boston is going to rely on a rotation of Schilling, Beckett, Matsuzaka, Wakefield, and Papelbon. Every single one has a major question mark. Everyone in that bullpen has question marks as well. Anyone feel like flipping a coin? I think that’s what Francona will end up doing.
Wang, Moose, Pettitte, Pavano, and Igawa all carry a major question mark as well, and none of them have the upside of Matsuzka.
For them to even have a “good bullpen” they would need career years from 3-5 guys. They have no consistency there now. No sure thing. No guy even with a decent track record.
When you are asking Pineiro to be your closer and you have championship aspirations you’re playing with fire.
With what is currently on the roster- “…the best bullpen in the league” now that is a stretch Pete…they might be adequate, or they might stink…is more accurate.
What question mark does Wang have?
asburyboss… he said best bullpen in the division, not league. Tampa Bay and Orioles bullpens aren’t good which leaves 2 teams to be better than. It is quite a possibility that they could have the best, or competitive-worthy, BP
Bostons hope rides with their starting rotation. If Matsuzaka is a bust, they aren’t going anywhere.
They will only have the best bullpen in the league if every other bullpen fails utterly and has a rash of injuries while each member of Boston’s bullpen pulls off a minor miracle.
It’s a lot like saying that the Royals could either come in first place in their division, or be the worst team in baseball.
I like the Yankees bullpen and would take it over Boston any day, and if we land Clemens we’ll have the better rotation as well.
2 things, Rich:
1. How is Chien-Ming Wang a question mark, and what more does Moose have to do to prove he has something left in the tank?
2. Do the Red Sox have nearly the amount of reliable pitching depth that the Yankees (Hughes, Sanchez, Ohlendorf) have right now?
I’m not sure what point you’re trying to prove, Rich, considering I didn’t compare the Red Sox to the Yankees at all. But whatever.
Swo, I agree that Moose and Andy both have question marks not because I don’t think they have something left in the tank but because they both have histories of injuries. The last three seasons Moose has missed time with injuries, and no one really knows if Andy will make it the whole season. They’re both phenomenal pitchers, I just don’t know that their arms will hold up.
I see no reason why the RS could have the “best” bullpen in the division.
We’re spoiled as Yankee Fans becuse of players like Mo. But what is Mo? He’s a failed starter. Who knows what Pinero can do in that role. He coudl end up being a steal. remember this is a guy that was linked to the Yanks last year, so talent evaluators on both teams see somthing in him that we don’t.
Finally, No, I don’t think Pinero is the next Mo.
Moose missed time due to injuries last year, and still put up 15 wins and could easily have had 18-20 if he had run support. He consistently wins 15 games with a decent ERA, even with injuries. I think we can safely count on him.
Wang is not a question mark. He came in second for the Cy Young, pitched consistently well, and won 19 games. He’s not a strike out pitcher, but he gets his ground ball outs CONSISTENTLY.
The bullpen’s a crap shoot for everyone. Even Mariano has question marks — he missed some time last season, plus he’s just getting older. I agree with Pete that for most relief pitchers, last year’s performance is no guarantee how the guy’s gonna pitch this year, both positively and negatively.
On balance, I like the Yankees better. But I’m a Yankees fan. It seems like while the Yankees have a few guys that will need to show some stuff in spring training, it looks like Boston has a bunch of spaghetti, their gonna throw it and see what sticks.
Pineiro pitched in releif last season, and he wasn’t that impressive in that role. Was he a passable releiver? Yes. Was he closer material? I don’t think so. But only time will tell that.
I’m not saying Peter is “wrong” — I know you guys don’t like that — but I’ll say definitively that no, the Red Sox, under no circumstances, can have the best bullpen in the division (unless they clone Mo, K-Rod and Nathan and stick them in there).
Even if the guys in their ‘pen DO have career years (which they won’t because they’re so old) they still wouldn’t have the best ‘pen.
And this is even with Papelbon as a closer (which he won’t be).
Brendan Donnelly is still a decent reliever, but past his prime. J.C. Romero throws hard, but he can’t get out righties and he was awful last year. No one knows what Hideki Okajima will do. Julian Tavarez didn’t begin pitching well until he became a starter. Timlin is cooked. Hansen was obviously a vastly overrated college pitcher. And Pineiro had a nightmare of a season last year. If Pineiro really becomes their closer, then the Red Sox are in trouble.
I don’t think they have one sure thing in their bullpen right now. Nor is anyone anything more than average.
I think their bullpen is going to kill them again this year, and I would say it’s only one step above the Rays’, but well behind the O’s, Blue Jays’ and Yankees’.
Two years ago Wang sat out, what, two months with a shoulder injury. Last year he pitched substantially more innings than he did in any previous year. Between the two, you have to think there is a reasonable possibility that he will sit for a while this year with an arm injury. That’s the question mark. Not how well he will pitch, but how often.
Wang Fan, you know what would be interesting to know? How many pitches Wang actually threw last year. See, normally an insane increase like Wang had last year would raise red flags (he threw almost 100 more innings than he ever had before).
But since Wang needs so few pitches to get through innings, I wonder if his “total pitches thrown” total is less severe than the innings total.
I don’t have time to look it up and go through gamelogs, but I wonder how Wang compares (as far as how many pitches he threw) to other guys who pitched more than 200 innings.
Be careful on assessments related to Hansen – how much time has he had in the minors – he was rushed last year due to injuries. Don’t be surprosed if he becomes effective with addtional seasoning. He needed more time in AAA, he’ll get it this year, and likely won’t make the bigs until later in the season.
http://www.rotoauthority.com/2.....g_r_1.html
Rotoauthority claims the redsox will have the best starting pitching in the AL with an era of 3.86 and the yanks are in second with an era of 3.9. I think their is so many question marks on both of the starting staffs that it is nearly impossible to predict the era for those two teams. Wang can get injured or not repeat his stelar preformance last yr. Moose and Pettitte are big injury risks. Pavano is pretty much guaranteed to get injured and Igawa may very well pitch up to Cashmans expectations and only be a number five guy at best. Then, you have to factor in whether or not the yanks or redsox get clemens. You have to take into account if Hughes, Sanchez or Clippard come up and how they do. The redsox rotation has even more question marks: Will papelbon stay healthy and be as good a starter as he was a closer (very doubtful) Will Daisuke be the second coming of pedro or the second coming of Irabu? Is schilling going to fall apart? Is wake too old to be effective? Is Beckett going to be the beckett of 2006 or the beckett of 2005? And where does Lester play into all of this? Trying to predict the success of these staffs, you might as well just flip a coin. The starting pitchers of either can either be the best in the league or mediocre at best.
The yanks definitely have the bullpen edge – no question about that.
Wang’s extremely low K rates present the risk that his ERA last season was an outlier, plus he sustained a small rotator cuff tear in 2005.
Moose has been on the DL for three consecutive seasons.
waswatching.com posts that in a survery of over 10,00 Japanese people about which Japanese baseball player will do the best (Between Ichiro, Daisuke, Igawa, Matsui, jOjima, and Iguchi) only 250 people voted for Igawa – that is not very good. 2000 People voted for Matsui but Ichiro and Daisuke both got about 35 percent of the vote. GREAT! And these are from people that have probably seen Igawa and Daisuke pitch.
Wang threw a total of 3040 pitches in 2006. That was actually only two more pitches than Mussina tossed. Moose, however, only pitched 197.1 innings as compared to Wang’s 218, roughly a ten percent difference.
Wang’s 218 innings placed him 5th in the AL for most number of innings pitched. However, his 3040 pitches were only good for 28th place in the AL.
Clearly, Wang is getting outs more efficiently than most AL starters, which, if this continues, should hold down the wear and tear on his arm.
I like the Yankees young pitching prospects a lot, but until they perform at the ML level, their effectiveness is based on projections.
My point is simply that we have to be realists about the fragility of the Yankees’ rotation.
Thanks for the research, Mr. Vegas.
I dont understand why Doug Mientkiewicz is part of a platoon at first. If you look at his splits, he bats pretty much the same against lefties (780 OPS) as he does against righties (760 OPS.) Last yr, he had a better batting average against righties at 286 than lefties at 274 but for his career he hits lefties better. Why are we playing phelps or phillips against lefties if Mienky hits better than either of them against both lefties and righties?
A pitcher’s delivery and/or pre-existing injuries are at least as likely to account for any injuries as his IP or the aggregate number of pitches he has thrown.
Also, pitchers often sustain injuries by overthrowing in high stress situations, which again, measures of IP or aggregate pitches miss.
Its a good question Dave, its probably because they want to keep an extra right handed bat in the lineup to mix things up once in a while. I’ll say this, if healthy I’d take Wang, Mussina, Pettite over Matsuzaka, Schilling, and Beckett. I’d also choose Papelbon and Wakefield over Igawa and Pavano. But with health being an issue, its hard to really see whose going to be the more dominant team. We’ll have to wait and see.
MeYanksFan…Mo is not a failed starter.
Id probably rather have an extra arm in the pen knowing that Mienky can hit against lefties. Maybe keeping Britton, Bruney and Rasner all on the yanks instead of one of them going to AAA.
Be careful on assessments related to Hansen – how much time has he had in the minors – he was rushed last year due to injuries. Don’t be surprosed if he becomes effective with addtional seasoning.
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The reason I call Hansen overrated is because people said that he would come out of college and step right onto a big-league field. That he was so polished he could help a team immediately. That turns out to be untrue. And the fact that even a supporter mentions that he needs more seasoning is just further proof that he was overrated coming out of college.
In addition to being more raw than advertised, his stuff isn’t anywhere NEAR what we heard about. We heard about a 97-mile-an-hour fastball and a devastating slider. The fastball was more 93 (and straight) and his slider didn’t have great break and he couldn’t always throw it for strikes.
Since his BAA goes up 60 points when he faces a lefty, it says he has to add another pitch and stop relying on that four-seam fastball.
He COULD end up being very good, but he simply isn’t the guy people thought he was coming out of college.
If that’s true Stormy, makes me glad the Yankees picked Cox instead of Hansen in 2005. Everyone was making fun of Steinbrenner for not wanting to offer Hansen a major-league contract right out of the draft, but it looks like the big ole Boss still had a few good decision in him after all.
everyone assume that Minky will platoon at 1B with whatever RH bat sticks, but who definitively knows that for sure? why couldnt both Phillips and Phelps stink up the joint and Minky wins the job outright during spring training? isnt that what spring training is for?
noone knows what could happen between now and opening day, but I’m positively sure noone is pointing out numbers here that the organization hasnt seen…
and that means Torre/Cash and the rest of the crew are well aware of what Minky has done against lefties, and i’m not going to assume anything at this point anymore until we’re about week into the season and we get a good view on how Torre views his players’ roles.
Guys:
I am not saying Boston will have the best bullpen. I’m saying that they have 18 relievers coming to camp, so who knows what they will have? At this time last year, did anybody know what Papelbon would be? Or Proctor? Of course not.
I know from experience, redsox fans talked about papelbon last off season like we talk up Hughes right now. They were literally that enthusiastic and optimistic about him – probably because they are redsox fans and talk up everything but I think they actually did think he would dominate in the closer role which he did.
The major, glaring problem in the redsox bullpen isnt as much a lack of talent (although that is also somewhat apparent) but that there is no clear closer among the bunch. And they may go thru the whole season with papelbon starting and not find someone to close down the game which would be a pretty bad situation to be in (especially if they make the playoffs.) I dont know for sure that the boston bullpen will be bad but if now one fills out that closer roll and does so well, every single close game for the redsox next season will be a rollercoaster after the starter comes out.
The Red Sox may not have the best bullpen heading into spring training, but they certainly have the biggest.
As a Red Sox fan, the bullpen is my biggest concern. It is a total wild card from top to bottom. There is potential there. There is young potential that could get better, veterans coming off poor years, and starters trying to be closers.
The most disconcerting part of the pen is that there is noone that I KNOW will do the job he is called upon to do next year. There are only, I HOPES. And that is not a comfortable feeling.
The Yankees picked Henry instead of Hansen. Cox was picked after the Sox drafted Hansen. Hansen would appear to have a higher upside than Cox because he throws much harder.
Pitching in relief in Seattle when they are 30 games out of it and theres no pressure is a tad different than closing in Fenway Park.
Hansons problem is he doesnt have the plus slider he had at St Johns. So hes throwing fastballs. Straight fastballs.