Today in The Journal News
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Mar 15, 2007 
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The Yankees demoted Phil Franchise but he walked away with a purpose, knowing what he needs to do to come back.
Big outing for Kei Igawa tonight in that he will be compared to Jeff Karstens, who has made a serious run at the rotation.
Could the Yankees put Igawa in the pen and use Karstens as a starter? That’s a question nobody needs to answer yet, not with so much time before a fifth starter is needed. But it’s a question that will get asked more if Igawa looks shaky tonight against the Braves.
We also need to see if Carl Pavano is actually on the roster come April 2. He could well be hurt or traded by then.
Pete,
How about another possibility. What if Igawa starts the year at AAA? Both Irabu and El Duque started their Yankee careers at AAA to get accustomed to this level of baseball.
I don’t think its impossible to see Igawa face the same fate if he continues to struggle. It would also open the door for the Yankees to take another bullpen arm (Britton or Bruney) north.
They already have a lefty in Andy in the rotation, so its not imperative they keep Igawa in the rotation if he is still struggling.
Thoughts?
How about trading Pavano with Karstens pitching so well now. I know that Torre and the FO have been saying that they need Carl this year, but if he performs well the rest of the spring, wouldn’t they be able to get some quality prospects for him, and let Karstens fill his spot on the rotation?
Igawa cost a lot of money.
he ain’t going to no AAA
If the Yanks want to “give him away” maybe there would be takers for Pavs, but Cash ain’t ready to pull that trigger yet.
I don’t see any club giving up good prospects for a pitcher that hasn’t pitched in two years and who has yet to shake the “malingerer” label. Certainly not yet – - he’s pitched maybe 6 innings of ST ball. We are stuck with Carl for now. If he has value it’s only to the Yanks at this point, given their investment in him. He has MLB experience and might be able to gut out a MLB replacement level season. Maybe. But that’s it.
At the time, Irabu and El Duque also cost big money. I am not saying he is going to spend the entire season at AAA. I am saying he could start at AAA to get his sea legs under him.
I wouldn’t trade Pavano. If he pitches well, why trade him? They have paid the guy $20 million and have gotten nothing in return. If he can pitch well, the Yankees should be the beneficiaries of that effort.
This is a guy who has won World Series and playoff games. That can’t be discounted.
As far as the prospects you may get in return, the system is already overloaded with pitching prospects. Right now, the Yankees need a 4th starter who can win at the ML level. If Pavano shows he is back to his 2003-2004 form, I say keep him. He is only 31 years old and his arm is younger than that seeing that he hasn’t pitched in two years. I wouldn’t give up on him yet.
Contreras cost more, it would be to acclomate, extended spring training….
Brian, I was all for trading Pavano when his value went up, but for now, we do need him. If Karstens continues to impress, he belongs in the rotation. I liked his quiet and professional demeanor and consistent good pitching and I like the potential to repeat or improve on that with a fresh start this year.
With Igawa struggling to adjust, and there are adjustments, not just normal ST fine tuning (different mound, ball, etc.. on top of new league, hitters..). We may/do need Karstens and Pavano healthy and in the rotation.
But like Pete said, plenty of time before we’ll need 5 starters. Really, plenty of time before we even need 4.
I like SJ44′s suggestion, bring up an extra reliever and let Igawa get more consistent work in AAA until we need 5 starters. At that time, determine who those last 2 should be. Karstens could very well start in AAA as well to keep working consistently since we won’t need a #5 for another month or more.
You have to remember, being in AAA for pitchers is sometimes just about getting consistent starts in the early weeks.
and remember how detrimental the lack of consistent work was last year to Jared Wright and Shaun Chacon…..
Completely agree Chris. April is a funny month. Lots of off days, bad weather, its tough for pitchers (especially starters) to get into a groove.
That’s why I like the idea of carrying an extra arm (especially a flame thrower like Bruney or Britton) in the bullpen in April. Sometimes, you steal a couple of early wins with a guy throwing 96 on a cold April day in the middle innings.
We also have to remember most of Igawa’s starts in Japan have come in domes. In addition to the adjustments he has to make playing in the states, he also has to deal with weather issues.
JMO but, its too much to expect for him to make all of these adjustments in such a short timeframe. I would let him start in AAA and ease him into the workload.
SJ44,
The Yankees should trade Pavano because he is a high injury risk, he probably won’t be that good even if he pitches a full season, and we may get some decent players in return if we get rid of him while he is healthy.
We should not trade him in the spring, but after he (hopefully) has some decent regular season starts. That way his trade value will shoot up and we will buy time to figure out who will replace him.
Considering that both Mussina and Pettitte have missed time the last two seasons due to injury and Igawa is such an unknown quantity, I can’t see why they would trade Pavano. The Yankees are going to need more starting pitching (we’ve had something of revolving door rotation since 2004), not less this season. Are people laboring under the belief that Mussina and Pettitte will pitch injury free this year? If so, why? We shouldn’t expect 200 IP from Pavano this season, but he’s more valuable to the Yankees than a few more pitching prospects (we’ve got plenty of those for once).
If Pavano is such a risk, what makes anyone think the Yankees can get anything of value for him? Its the classic case of selling low. That’s why I don’t see him being traded. Cashman isn’t selling low right now. Would make no sense.
If he pitches well, why trade him? Right now, the Yankees aren’t getting anything of value for Carl Pavano and, frankly, they need him. As has been written, Moose and Andy aren’t locks to go through the season injury free and its pretty clear neither Hughes nor Ohlendorf are ready yet.
Best case scenario for the Yankees is for Pavano to pitch well. At that time, if a few other things fall into place, it would give them options.
Conversely, given the high cost of pitching right now, if he is pitching well, his $10 million per season is a bargain in this marketplace.
“This is a guy who has won World Series and playoff games. That can’t be discounted.”
… and let’s not forget whom he shut down in that World Series….
If he can return to anywhere near that form, it’s better than Gil Mesche and Ted Lilly for the same money they’re getting right now. Injury risk of course, but how many pitchers aren’t these days? If nothing else, he’s DUE to be healthy for a year.
Trade him WHEN we sign Clemens….
SJ44 – I may be wrong, but I think Igawa has a ML contract and cannot be sent to AAA unless he agrees to it, which he wouldn’t.
As for Pavano, you are right about selling low. Fact is, he’s a league average pitcher when healthy, and he isn’t often healthy. Hopefully he’s pitching effectively a month into the season so his value will be raised and we can trade him there. Just saving the $22M owed to him would be enough reason to trade him in my opinion. That money can be better used elsewhere.
Taylor, I disagree, why wouldn’t he agree to it? He clearly needs some work, and I’m sure would rather get that work than sit around for a month in the majors. Further, he most likely does (and should) have the mentality of a minor leaguer who just made it to the big leagues, “whatever the team wants me to do/thinks is best…..”
He’s not some proven major leaguer who can get away with just saying no (like Giambi did..). Further, I’m pretty sure he actually can be sent down until he has more time in the league (that was why Giambi could say no).
I have feeling most Yankees Fans and Ny Media wants Igawa to fail as starter in the big leagues. Why is that? Is it because He doesn’t the stuff as Matsuzaka. Please, Give him a chance to succeed and layoff him.
[...] As Peter Abraham noted, all eyes will be on Kei Igawa this afternoon. If he can’t show some command and effectiveness today, the Yanks may consider long and hard giving Karstens a rotation spot. He’s certainly earned it. [...]
As well as Karstens is pitching, it sounds like Joe might opt to go with 11 pitchers. That should open an extra spot for another 1st baseman in the first couple of weeks. it will be a “competition” for Philip, Menky, Phelps.
Also, Todd Pratt had a nice hit yesterday late in the game. With Nieves out for a few more days, Pratt has a solid chance of nailing down the backup catcher role.
Igawa may get some AAA time because, if my memory is correct, the Yankees won’t need a 5th starter until the first week of May. Considering that Mussina, Pettitte, and Wang will probably pitch on regular rest, the Yankees need a way to keep the back half of the rotation from getting rusty. Maybe Igawa “tweaks” something and pitches extended spring training to start the season?
Can you believe that Karstens right now is much better pitcher than Top pitching Phil Hughes? Karstens doesn’t have the Stuff like Hughes but He throws strikes and changes speeds.Also, He can He can throw his changeup and curveball over the plate.
As I said Kei Igawa is as ready as anyone. He is not going to AAA.
Greg, I don’t think that’s the case at all. No true fan wants anyone in a Yankee uniform to fail. All I can speak for is myself, but I certainly don’t want the guy to fail. I also feel that with the time he would be dormant in the majors, he’d be better off and more likely to succeed with some time in AAA to continue to adjust to everything. He also has said he typically starts off slow, which I’m sure would be made worse by colder environments.
Why not give him time that we can afford to give him to get ready?
Regarding the Matsuzaka comparison, you’d have to be a Yankee HATER, not fan to wish Igawa fails and Matsuzaka succeeds. I for one, hope “Dice-K” is “Dice KRAP.” HE’S A RED SOCK!!
And it would be a small, sweet victory if we got a guy from Japan for half the price and he worked out better for us (not expecting him to be capable of being more successful, but maybe he can meet our expectations better than Matsuzaka can meet Boston, and the world’s expectations of him…).
Greg, on Hughes/Karstens, I agree. I can believe it because of what we saw of Karstens last year and Hughes’ age/experience. Obviously Hughes will surpass him in the not-so-distant future, his upside is much much higher. But right now, Karstens is more ready.
I hate the Redsox. I’m diehard Yankees fan.. That’s feeling I got when Ny Media, and some of the Yankees Fans thinks that Igawa will be a bust and fails big time.
Deric, as ready as anyone? Have you seen the guy pitch in MLB? All you have to do is listen to Torre and Gator to realize he has some adjustments to make beyond the normal ST fine tuning.
You guys need to get it out of your head that AAA this early in the season is a bad thing or a slap in the face. It’s a chance to get some work in, not much different than a re-hab stint. You’d rather he sit around and go backwards in from progress he makes in ST?
Greg, I get what you’re saying, I just hope it’s skepticism more than actually wanting him to fail…..
It probably just comes down to the people who fail to realize the money we spent on him wasn’t really big money, even though it seems to be. If we signed Gil Mesche, people would probably still have similar criticisms because they don’t understand the market, and basic economics.
Igawa is NOT as ready as everyone else. Not even close. AAA is not a slap in the face. Its a reality if he continues to struggle because they won’t just keep him on the roster to get his brains beat in.
Conteras, El Duque and Irabu all spent time in AAA before coming up to the big club. His contract does not preclude him from being sent down because he doesn’t have any accrued service time, as was the case with Giambi.
IMO, if he doesn’t pitch better in the next two weeks, he will start the year at AAA to get regular work. As it stands now, he won’t get regular work in the Bronx once the season starts because they are keeping Wang, Moose and Pettitte on turn.
If they feel he needs the work, he will be in Scranton to start the season.
this is why it’s so convenient to have the triple-a team in nearby scranton instead of 7 hours farther west. it’s not like the yanks are sending someone to siberia. they can virtually commute on the day they’re pitching while working out under guidry’s watchful eyes the other four days (if the yanks are home).
by the way, scranton’s going to be loaded this season.
Here’s a question (for Pete or anyone else in the know), if Hughes comes up and is effective (say in June) and is here to stay, does that mean the Yankees step out of the Clemens race? Or does Cash continue to seek Clemens no matter what?
FWIW, I don’t think Hughes is going to be here in June. He is on a 180 innings limit and, frankly, he needs time in AAA to continue his growth.
JMO but, I think they persue Clemens regardless of any situation. Its pretty clear they cleared enough money off the decks to accomodate him and, with Randy Johnson gone, they will probably be more agreeable to having Clemens only be around for the games he pitches.
If Johnson was still here, that would be a big problem in the locker room. Now, everything is in place for them to make a run at Roger. The ball is now in Roger’s court as to where he wants to go.
I don’t think you ever tell Clemens you don’t need him until he needs a walker. He can only help. Even if Hughes comes up and is huge for us, someone will be hurt and if not, someone will get bumped for the Rocket.
Equally important, if he wants to pitch, Steinbrenner will not allow him to do so in BOSTON. No way we bow out of that race.
Someone mentioned the Yankee payroll in one of the threads yesterday… did you guys hear Cashman say it’s already down to the $165M range? Down what, $40M from 2 years ago…
Definitely gives us plenty of flexibility.
Chris,
It also brings up an interesting issue re: “Underdog”. When he opts out (and he will, IMO) can the Yankees afford him? Let’s remember, any deal he gets is multiplied higher because of the Yankees being up against the luxury tax threshold. Cashman clearly wants more payroll flexibility now and in the future.
At $16 million per year (what the Yankees are paying him), he is a bargain. If he has a big season, his new deal is going to top $20 million per year for 5-8 years, IMO.
Its funny to say but, he may be out of the Yankees price range in terms of what they are attempting to do with the payroll right now.
Ror that reason, I firmly believe this is his last year in NY, regardless of results. Its why I am hoping he has a big year (never underestimate any player’s hunger on the last year of their contracts, which is basically where Underdog is at right now), and the team wins the World Series.
I’d hate to see him leave because I think he is a great player. However, the economics, more than the fan/media climate, makes me think this is his last year in New York.
For the sake of discussion – let’s pretend!
This is a good situation to be in so do not take this for complaining – but let’s play GM for a day.
Igawa and Pavano are mediocre.
You have an effective long reliever/emergency starter Karstens in the pen.
Hughes in AAA (who is dominating after 2 to 3 months of adjustment)
and Clemens on the way.
What do you do with Igawa?
and what do you do with Pavano?
Remember, Karstens is making $300k. Igawa cost $46 mil.
Also, do you bring Hughes up?
Just switch Karstens to the starter role?
Spend $15 mil on half a year of Clemens if Karstens and Hughes are impressive?
Demote Igawa to AAA at $46 mil?
SJ44
I guess that depends on how things work in the baseball contracts world. Is an extension an entirely new contract or is it just an add on to an exisiting one? If it’s the latter, then Hicks is hooked until 2010 and then the Yanks are responsible for anything after that. If it’s an entirely new contract, then the Yankees are paying the full amount. Anyone out there familiar with extensions?
you won’t hear this said by torre until opening day but karstens is already the No. 4 starter. anyone who watched him pitch last night can see this is a big league pitcher. his evolution over the past year is remarkable.
the other two guys need to get their houses in order. but karstens belongs in the rotation right now.
SJ44, I agree with Sunny615. I’m not sure either, but I would think they could work the contract extension however they want, thus keeping Texas’ money in the mix. So, if he wants to stay and the Yankees want him to stay, we’ll have the Payroll flexibility to keep him. We’ll pay him 16M for 3 years, then maybe 20 or so for 3 more.. so really only incresing the payroll by $4M for those years. Even if it’s a new contract, still only pushes us up by $4M compared to what we’re paying now…
kerouac, I haven’t seen him pitch this spring, but I get that feeling too… When we saw him last year, it was late in the season and he was fatigued (minor leaguer, not used to the innings), and he still did well. I like the kid and could see him being a solid #4 or 5 starter right now, eventually maye even a #3 with Mussina type consistency..
No, it would be a new contract. If Underdog opts out, he is a free agent. His present contract would be null and void.
Its an entirely new deal and he would be a free agent, able to negotiate with anybody. It won’t be an extension to the present deal.
SJ44, I mean if he gets an extension, using the opt-out as leverage (the threat of using it), but not actually exercising it.
SJ44, I mean if he gets an extension, using the opt-out as leverage (the threat of using it), but not actually exercising it.
chris, we think alike. karstens is a positive development in an area where the yankees have the most questions this spring. i hope some other starters step up the way he has. not that i’m worried about the front 3. they’re on pace, i guess, working at their own speed as veterans should.
chris, we think alike. karstens is a positive development in an area where the yankees have the most questions this spring. i hope some other starters step up the way he has. not that i’m worried about the front 3. they’re on pace, i guess, working at their own speed as veterans should.
chris, we think alike. karstens is a positive development in an area where the yankees have the most questions this spring. i hope some other starters step up the way he has. not that i’m worried about the front 3. they’re on pace, i guess, working at their own speed as veterans should.
sorry about the repeats. my computer was slow and it fooled me. guess i’m still in spring training, too.
Kei Igawa may still need some time to adjust, but that doesn’t mean that Jeff Karstens would be the no.4 starter. Some people here are too high on Karstens based on small sample size. He is not Moose, not even close.
Of course he’s not Moose. I said hopefully he’ll develop that type of consistency, I did not say he was that caliber, nor that he’ll even be that caliber. Moose is still and always has been an Ace caliber pitcher. I’m speaking only of consistency that I “HOPE” he can achieve.
All I’m saying, is he has a quiet demeanor and SEEMS to have the potential to be consistently “good,” not great. That’s why I said a #3/4 starter over his career with no projection of being a #1 or 2 as Moose has been.
And yes, I acknowledge the sample size is small, thus the use of words such as “could see..” and “maybe…”
Chris,
Yes, he could leverage it into an extension. However, for him to do so, he would still have to be paid market rate (Boras isn’t leaving money on the table) and that still could be too rich for the Yankees blood at this time.
My hope is, he has a monster season and makes these decisions tough because it would mean the team would have a very successful season.
I hope so too.
I still disagree that it would be too rich for Yankees blood. Especially if we can keep the Texas money in play, but even if we can’t.. You have to keep in mind we’re already paying him $16M as part of the $165M payroll, so adding another 4 or even another 8 or 9M isn’t going to push us anywhere we can’t afford to be…
karstens has been pitching well since last summer when he won his final 10 minor league decisions, then showed some guts and guile with the yanks in august and september.
he’s a positive story, a guy who may be overachieving, or perhaps someone who is breaking through the barrier to become a quality addition to this staff. i root for guys like this. karstens is what spring training used to be all about before big contracts started dictating roster decisions.
I get your point. However, if you project him to be a no.3 starter, it is probably too high on him. He hasn’t proved much so far beyound the AA level. He has only pitched 73.2 innings in AAA, not even a full season. What I wanted to say was don’t jump to a conclusion just based on 2 or 3 spring training starts.
It’s so hard to predict how a pitcher would perform especially young pitchers. If you look at Jeff Karstens, he just doesn’t have the kind of stuff that is needed to succeed in the big league. His K/BB and K/9 beyond the AAA level could be a warning sign. He walked more while striking out less.
I don’t disagree Deric, I’m more hoping/rooting, than projecting..
It would be nice to see a young kid overperform rather than underperform, as we’ve gotten so accustomed to some of our high dollar veteran free agents do over the past few years.
Chris NY – I totally agree in regard to the minimal effect an extra 8 or 9 mil would have. Let’s all keep in mind that the point of lowering the payroll commitments wasn’t simply to lower the payroll in general, but to provide flexibility. What is “flexibility” if it’s not an opportunity to spend towards needs? Didn’t I even read at some point that Cashman himself said that by saving money now it allows us to “spend it where we need it”? Something to that effect anyway – correct me if I am wrong.
That having been said, if “U-Dog” hits the open market, I can’t see the Yankees just turning their backs and letting him walk away if he produces this year and honestly wants to remain in NY. It’s really no different than any one of our players hitting their contract year when they are in their prime – they become a free agent and test the waters, regardless of their desire to remain a Yankee. It’s a business ploy, pure and simple. If U-Dog’s value is still in keeping with the market after the results of his 2007 campaign, he’d be a fool not to use the opt-out clause to his advantage. Trust me, I’d be more than happy to have a $25M paycheck coming to me each year from bwetween two teams, but this is about relativity to market value. Plus, there’s no way a greedy and tenacious jackass like Boras lets U-Dog NOT work that clause.
With the third base market pickings looking slim (somebody suggested Mike Lowell the other day??? WTF??? LOL), and a promising talent like Marcos Vechionacci still a couple years away – I say there’s no way the Yanks let U-Dog leave. Just my opinion, of course.
There’s nothing that says the Yanks can’t negotiate an extension with underdog and keep the current contract in force before he opts out and voids. They could even agree to lower the short term outlay while adding years. Whether that would eliminate Texas’ obligations is likely treated in the original deal. I don’t think that’s been discussed or is known, but it’s at least possible that they’d still be on the hook.
On this 5th starter thing, take a look at the schedule. Barring rainouts, keeping everyone on 4 days rest – and it’s pretty unlikely anybody’d go on 3 days right out of the chute – a 5th starter will be required no later than April 8 – the Yanks have 8 straight days on the schedule from the 4th through the 11th. Won’t be needed again until the 21st in Boston, but it’s easy to imagine Torre going earlier in this stretch of games with the #5 so they don’t have to pitch in Boston after a long layoff. The #5 will go at least twice in an unbroken stretch of 13 games from 4/17 thru 4/29. So however it sets up, there’s one early start and then things get pretty normalized mid April.
On the overall payroll, the actual number typically varies significantly from the “stated” (typically from the USA Today database) number, as the latter includes prorated signing bonuses, doesn’t account for other team contribution on traded players. And the comparison of Cash’s $165 mm to the $200+ of 2 years ago is comparing those 2 different numbers. I think Cash is understating – you can see the numbers for each player at Cot’s Contracts – I think Pete lists a link. And Karstens would make closer to $400 K – the new minimum is $380.
“Taylor, I disagree, why wouldn’t he agree to it? He clearly needs some work, and I’m sure would rather get that work than sit around for a month in the majors. Further, he most likely does (and should) have the mentality of a minor leaguer who just made it to the big leagues, “whatever the team wants me to do/thinks is best…..â€?
He’s not some proven major leaguer who can get away with just saying no (like Giambi did..). Further, I’m pretty sure he actually can be sent down until he has more time in the league (that was why Giambi could say no).”
Why wouldn’t he agree to it? Because he wants to pitch in the majors, not AAA. It’s as simple as that. I think there was a reason he wanted a ML contract, and that was it.
As for him having the right to say no to going down to AAA, if memory serves me right he signed a contract that said he would be in the majors – but then again, I might be wrong about that. I’m far from sure.
One problem with sending Igawa to AAA in favor of Karstens is that if Karstens continues to pitch well, what is Igawa’s role with the team? (Not really a “problem” but you get the point). Would the Yankees really want to have spent $46M on a guy they are going to put in AAA and then move to the bullpen right away, without a chance of being in the starting rotation?
Igawa seems to be improving in each start, and I expect that to continue. If anything, it should not be a Kartens vs. Igawa for the 5th spot in the rotation, but instead of a 3 way race with Pavano also in it for the last 4 and 5 spot.
And Deric, where you to go back to Wang’s Minors numbers he wasn’t so “projectable” either. Guess that’s why the game is more interesting than the stats. In statistics, the Bell curve only accounts for 80% of the group – so 1 in 5 are outside the average projection.
Wanting to pitch in the majors doesn’t mean Igawa’s not willing to do whatever it takes to do so successfully and respecting the wishes of his employer, the team that made that dream possible. Either way, it’s been discussed on here and I’m pretty sure it’s a moot point, he wouldn’t have a choice if they chose to send him down for a couple weeks. Keep in mind, that’s all we’re talking about is a couple weeks to get some work in and adjust.
I agree, it would be a good “problem” to have, to have Karstens AND Pavano AND Igawa doing well enough to have to decide what to do with one of them… Not really sure what the answer would be, or if one of the 3 would be effective out of the pen… but would be great if that decision had to be made, and could mean a trade, but seems like that’s a long way off.
i’m rooting for igawa to pitch well and take the fifth slot. pavano’s the wild-card in this deck, big contract or not. he’s a week behind, got tired in the third inning of his last start (by torre’s admission) and might not be ready by opening day.
igawa also offers bullpen flexibility in april if he’s the fifth starter. when pavano’s ready, by joe’s estimation, then he goes into the rotation and either karstie or igawa gets temporarily bumped.
this three-way thing for two spots won’t work itself out for a couple more months. what happens tonight with igawa is just another step in the process.
and I agree it’s a 3-way race, not giving Pavano anything he doesn’t have to earn. If it’s close, the bigger contracts of Igawa and Pavano will give them the nod over Karstens (have to justify the spending), so Karstens has a tougher battle than they do, and the reality is, he’s younger and may be more effective as a long reliever than either of the other two, if that’s eventually the decision that has to be made.
Let’s just hope that ALL SIX starters get ready in time and perform well enough and healthy enough for these things to really become “problems….”
don;t forget rassie. he could pitch well in columbus and be an option if pettitte or moose need some time off.
can we get a refund on Igawa?
kerouac,
JFYI The Yankees are no longer associated with Columbus.
sorry. senior moment. i mentioned scranton earlier. then columbus later.
Why is Villone still on the team. You only need one lefty specialist. I prefer having Bruney who was great for the Yanks down the stretch last year.
trade bait?
a journal or a diary, those thoughts…
are inherently private. posting it online seemed to me tantamount to telling every detail of your finances or your sex life to every random stranger you come across.the first few blogs i looked at seemed to be mostly unsubstantiated random thoughts…