Iggy and Dice-K look a lot alike so far
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Mar 26, 2007 
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really wouldn’t surprise me if Igawa ends up having a better season then Matsuzaka.
THANK YOU! Is that not what I just said? lol
Do you think the Sox would be interested in trading them?
When I was in Tampa for Igawa’s first start, I was interviewed by a few guys from a Japanese Television show. After they stoped filming, we were just talking about baseball, and one of the men told me that he believed Igawa was just as good as Matsuzaka, if not better. Perhaps he was right?
Let’s not get carried away. I think Igawa has a chance to be better than we’ve been inclined to believe, BUT the scouts slot him to be a 4 or 5 pitcher, while they slot Dice-K to be 1 or 2. They may both end up being #3′s, depending on how they adjust. Or not. Clearly, they are both in an adjustment period. And Igawa did win the equivalent of the Cy Young in Japan, and he did lead his league in strikeouts. He’s not chopped liver. But Dice-K has been, in Japan, the more consistently better pitcher.
I just don’t want to get on this rollercoaster ride, and I don’t want to get caught up in which one of these guys is better, each and every time they pitch.
It is interesting looking at the two sets of spring stats, though.
This is really interesting to me. Supposedly, Mats’ “stuff” is more conducive to success in MLB. On the other hand, few pitchers have better “stuff” than Josh Beckett.
Yeh but if you watched these two guys theres a very different story being told..
hitters flat out look fearful facing matsuzaka, i dont see that with igawa. igawa also is having a lot more control issues.
Kay had a comment today describing how igawas changeup keeps going in on righties.. thats a recipe for disaster IMO.
having said all that, i think igawa will be a great #4 or #5, and thats all we should expect out of him and no one will be disappointed. Trying to compare him next to matsuzaka will just disappoint everyone
Not sure I agree, Josh.
A change that moves in (and obviously down) on righties is very tough to hit. If set up properly by hard stuff, the change dips under the bat handle and creates a lot of weak outs.
brockdc,
What distinguishes Matsuzaka from Beckett is his superior ability with regard to breaking balls.
“really wouldn’t surprise me if Igawa ends up having a better season then Matsuzaka.”
Barring injury, I would eat my shoe if that happened.
I am usually VERY positive when it comes to the Yankees. However, with Igawa, here is what I see:
He is fooling a lot of guys with his off-speed stuff right now. The batters aren’t taking things serious, he is facing a lot of scrubs, etc. Once the season comes around, the book will be out on his off-speed junk and they will start bashing it. In turn, he is going to get wild and start walking more guys than he strikes out which is the point where he is useless. If he can keep up a good K/BB rate and can somehow make his changeup stop moving IN to right-handed hitters, he will be an OK middle of the pack pitcher. I don’t see ANY way that he will be as good as Dice-K. Just by the eyeball test that is.
Josh: How do you know hitters look fearful against Matsuzaka? Based on what?
First, this is a very limited sample size.
Second, they’re really not that close, even based on this sample.
Igawa: 1.47 WHIP, 1.58 K/BB
Matsuzaka: 0.91 WHIP, 2.71 K/BB
Someone has been very lucky so far when it comes to runs surrendered.
I had watched Igawa pitch when he was playing for Hanshin Tigers. I can’t say he’s as good as Matsuzaka or will be as good, but Igawa was the ace for Hanshin Tigers (equivalent to RedSox as far as popularity is concerned) for the last 5,6 years, and his stuff is certainly a lot better than what he showed during the Spring Training.
No offense, unless the guy is throwing at your head, or looks like Kyle “Haymaker” Farnsworth, I don’t think our roid head baseball players are afraid of a tiny Japanese man they barely know.
Sure DMat projects better than Kei at this point, and that may well end up being the case.
But DMat has a lot more pressure on him to be that extraordinary pitcher that everybody is saying he will be. I can’t remember this much hype on a player before, and he’s in Boston no less, baseball’s most obsessive city. Wait till that first routine flyball scrapes off the Green Monster. He won’t believe it.
Meanwhile, Igawa is kind of flying in under the radar, and nobody is throwing out wild expectations on him. We’ll see.
Joe, depends what he means by better. If you mean in terms of wins, its not far fetched considering Dice-K could b opposing #2-3 guys while Igawa is opposing Steve Trachsel.
For the record, not only did Igawa win the equivalent of the Japanese Cy Young that year, but he was also the recipient of the Japanese MVP that year also.
it’s a sad and unfair life; it’s better to expect little and aim low:
DMat will win 23-26 games, and Iggy may be 10-12 games.
Peter –
I just have a question about the Yanks Far East imports. Given the history between China and Japan, especially during WWII, how is the working relationship between Wang and Matsui and Igawa? Similarly, I wonder how this is playing out in their home countries. Do fans in those countries root just for their countrymen, and how do they react in Taiwan when, say, Matsui makes a big play when Wang is pitching? Given that you co-authored a book about Wang, I wonder if you have any insight.
No one’s looked fearful against Matsuzaka from what I’ve seen on the 2 games on ESPN. There haven’t really been any decent swings on his pitches. Only hard hit balls were foul and a potential home run by Adam Dunn was blown back by the wind. It still took him 100 pitches to get through 5 innings against the Reds.
Beckett has +stuff, but it’s not hard to tee off on him when the only pitch he can get over in some games is his fast ball.
Igawa froze Howard with one of his high breaking pitches to strike him out. Howard’s not exactly a srub. I don’t like the pitches up there, they’ll definitely get hit a long way, but at least Igawa can fool people.
Igawa just doesn’t look comfortable or fully confident yet. His change-up is moving away during his bullpen sessions, but not during games, according to the bullpen catcher. Hopefully he fixes his control/mechanics before he gets shelled.
If you watch Igawa pitch and then watch Dice-K, it really isn’t close at all. I realize you are trying to spin it to be (which is fine I guess, you are trying to please Yankee fans) but come on Pete, have you even watched Dice-K pitch so far? Igawa has trouble throwing his fastball for strikes. Dice-K regulary throws 5 pitches for strikes at any time in the count. If Igawa can do that he wouldn’t be a #5 starter. Pete, don’t put unfair expectations on Igawa by comparing him to Dice-K, then comparing their “Spring Training” stats, REALLY silly.
Good question, Joe from Long Island. I’ve wondered that myself.
Jews are friends with Germans. Why can’t the Japanese and the Chinese do the same?
“Joe, depends what he means by better. If you mean in terms of wins, its not far fetched considering Dice-K could b opposing #2-3 guys while Igawa is opposing Steve Trachsel.”
do you think opponents’ rotations tend to line up after the season is a few weeks old? i’d be shocked if this were true.
Tell me you’re not comparing spring training stats and suggesting it means something. I know you’re smarter than that.
How dare you disrespect the greatest pitcher of our generation by comparing him to Igawa. Haha, i agree Pete, they might end up being very similar. D-Mat got to the market 1st and had the WBC is mainly why he was twice as expensive.
pete,
i’m a huge fan of your stuff, but you’re out of your damned mind if you really think these guys are going to have similar seasons. that’s laughable. at best.
@Ross
Igawa faced: Tigers (AL Champs), Braves, Phillies, Pirates
Mats faced: Boston College, Marlins, Pirates, Dodgers(rain shortened), Orioles
Who faced scrubs?
@Hawke
You might be correct in calling it luck if the 19K’s werent there, but K’s connotate skill, not luck. Matsuzaka’s sexy sizzling FB may be nice to watch, but I’ll take the K with a changeup if the batter is heading to the bench after.
I don’t post too often (okay, like never) but I love the blog. So go vote for Pete’s blog on the SI website. I tried to cut and past the address below and above. This blog was waaay ahead a few days ago but now it is getting roughed up.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....am=yankees
My apologies if anyone else has posted on this already. I think Pete has too much class to ask us to vote (and you should vote often…)
Overall, I think batters can adapt to Igawa better than they can to Matsuzaka. In the beginning, they will have similar growing pains, but I think in the long run, Mats will have better long term sucess.
im sure pete knows a lot more than all of you guys.
that is a very good point ty.
i personally think igawa would be effective in the bullpen because hitters won’t have as much time to figure him out…
Kasey:
Where did I saw they would have the same seasons? I simply compared their spring-training statistics.
“You might be correct in calling it luck if the 19K’s werent there, but K’s connotate skill, not luck. Matsuzaka’s sexy sizzling FB may be nice to watch, but I’ll take the K with a changeup if the batter is heading to the bench after.”
doesn’t matsuzaka have 19 K’s as well?
this conversation boggles my mind. seriously? we’re seriously comparing igawa to matsuzaka? i have a feeling anyone who thinks the two will have similar seasons is going to have egg all over their face come may. it may not even take that long.
lord knows i’ve said some colossally stupid stuff on this blog, but this comparison is absolutely ludicrous.
igawa may (MAY) be an effective #4 or #5 starter. maybe. how many “finesse” pitchers do you know who have had success pitching up in the zone? you can probably count them on one hand. matsuzaka has a bigger arsenal, more velocity and better control. don’t kid yourselves. the yankees may well win the world series this season, but there’s not a snowball’s chance in hell igawa and matsuzaka turn out to be similar pitchers.
“im sure pete knows a lot more than all of you guys.”
no disrespect meant to Pete at all, but why would you be sure of this?
pete,
the headline itself suggests the two are similar.
but, my posts on this topic have been more inteded for those who continue to insist that the two will have similar seasons, or are similarly talented.
by the way, steve phillips thinks the mariners have a shot at the AL west crown. hope springs eternal here in the northwest.
I don’t think Pete was saying that Igawa is as good as D-Mat (and I’m going to keep using that nickname not Dice-K because the Sox fans hate it), he was just pointing out something interesting. Especially considering the way people around here always throw him under the bus for his spring training starts. I don’t understand some of the negativity here from supposed Yankee fans, if anyone has constant reason to be optimistic it’s us, so why is it that people on this blog only seem to think spring training stats matter when they’re bad?
I love how so many people who have never watched Matsuzaka thrown a pitch that counted think he’s great. Based on everybody I have spoken to, I think he will be good. But go back to when Kaz Matsui came to the Mets and find one person who thought he wouldn’t work out. You can’t.
ESPN the Magazine called him “Next” and SI did the same. He was lousy.
Until we see these guys – or any rookie – in the heat of competition against good lineups, it’s all speculation.
We have seen him in the WBC, but you’re right that it involves speculation.
Joe from Long Island,
Besides, MLB was huge even before any of our own broke into the scene! We root for anyone who deserves respect. The only difference is that we adore Wang like we personally gave birth to him while we cheer for others in a more civilized manner. And as media coverage goes, everyone gets their share of the headlines. Well, I’ll admit, we get 4 or 5 times more on Wang than on other players…
ahem, I know we Taiwanese fans and media sound a lot like in-laws from hell sometimes, but luckily, even the most uneducated in baseball know that it’s no boxing match.
The love/hate relationship of Taiwan vs Japan is nothing compared to Mainland China vs Japan (or Korea vs any country). Besides, what’s politic got to do with a nice beer and a good game?
99ers March 26th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
it’s a sad and unfair life; it’s better to expect little and aim low:
DMat will win 23-26 games, and Iggy may be 10-12 games.
Uh, you’re kidding right? Already forecasting that many wins for this guy? Are you forgetting that Johan Santana, who has PROVED he is one of the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now (if not the most) only had 19 wins last year? Sure, the Red S*x have a better offense, but you are already guaranteeing that some rookie with no MLB experience will be better than Santana? (Or Wang, for that matter?)
Anyone who thinks that Iggy is on Dice-K’s level is in for a rude awakening. Dice-K can do things that most SPs can only dream of. Igawa needs to have everything working to truly dominate. Matsuzaka is good enough that he can get by without having all that much that day.
Peter, I love this blog, but posts like this are what make me nervous about Igawa’s season. If he posts a 4.50 ERA, will people call him a dissapointment? I’d consider that an excellent season. But Dice-K should be pitching 3.50 ball, and I just really hope people quit it with the comparisons.
Iggy was brought in to shore up the back end. Matsuzaka was brought here to dominate. If you can’t see that by the difference in their fastballs, quality of their pitches, or pure movement, I don’t know what to tell you. This is one Yankees fan who can admit that Dice-K truly is that good, and that Igawa should not be compared to him. The Yankees are the better team on paper, but Matsuzaka is the better pitcher in any realm.
Keep putting it to them Pete. These fools dont know jack. My favorite post was “DMat will win 23-26 games.” LOL
JLB,
Stop embarassig yourself.
Check me if I am wrong, but I think the stats appear even because of one poor outing by Matsuzaka while Igawa has consistently walked a lot of batters, and while he has shown improvement as the spring wears on, he has struggled at some point in every game. Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has been consistently outstanding, with that one exception. Again, I am stating this from memory and may be incorrect. In any case, while spring stats are not terribly meaningful, from what I have observed, Matsuzaka has great stuff and terrific control. Igawa seems far less accomplished.
Pete- you are 100% correct when it comes to Mats and Kei. There is no way to see what they will do this season but if spring training stats mean anything at all, the 2 have done near identical work this March. I mean, they were comparing Irabu to Nolan Ryan when the Yanks signed him. Bobby Valentine said Kaz Matsuo would be gret. Look what happened. He says Mats will be great but if he turns out to be like his last prediction, he is nothing special.
I’m a Yankee fan, but that’s one sick rotation: Schilling (Mr. Big Gamer), DMat (Mr. Cy Young 2007), and Beckett (Come Back Kid of the Year 2007).
I’m doing my part and getting out my voodoo dolls. I hope you are doing the same.
Iggy is a finesse pitcher and Dice K is a power pitcher. That’s what I’ve read, anyhow. Finesse pitchers in MLB get less respect than power pitchers. You gotta have a big fastball or nasty slider or the scouts call you a “soft tosser” or “crafty” or a “sinkerballer” or whatever other derogatory term is currently in vogue. Gotta say a well placed heater is the best pitch in baseball, no question. But look at Beckett and Randy Johnson when they’re off – the slider doesn’t slide and the fastball is a little up and they get rocked. David Cone used to be a flame thrower, but he was at his best when he lost a few mph off the heater and had to learn to pitch. Nobody had a bigger heart or will to win or more success than Coney even when he had nothing.
So sit back, suspend your bias, understand that comparing Dice-K to Iggy is “apples to oranges” and let’s just see who turns out to be more effective by the end of the season. Effectiveness is the only thing that matters.
Igawa, Cy Young, you heard it here first!!!
Well said, Murphydog. Can I add one question?
Out of the 4 active pitchers who have either passed 300 wins or are on the doorstep, how many are “fireballers?”
Clemens, yes.
Glavine, no.
Maddux, no.
The Big Eunuch, yes.
So 50%. Take that as you will.
Oh, and by the way, 5th place on the active wins list is held by none other than our own Mike Mussina at 239. He’s hardly a power pitcher, either.
ERA). Should he remain healthy between now and April 2, it appears he will be starting on Opening Day after 643 days on the sidelines.
I guess John Heyman is reading your blog.
BTW Mussina was a flamethrower earlier in his career.
The way I picture it, Pete is kicking back in his hotel room, enjoying a cold one (or two) and loving the “debate” that is being had over Dice-K and The Kei Man.
He’s probably wondering what he can post tomorrow that will be the equivalent of poking the bee’s nest that is in YankeeFanLand.
Now everybody go vote for Pete’s LoHud blog on the SI site. We are catching up but there is much work to do.
And for the money (See Pete’s original post), Kei will be worth it and Dice-K.. probably not so much.
That website again:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....am=yankees
God I Love Spring Training.
Honestly, I haven’t seen either of these guys pitch yet, as I do not have YES. But I have heard Igawa compared to Jimmy Key, circa early 90′s. If he’s anywhere in THE NEIGHBORHOOD of Key, I’ll be thrilled.
Well, SOMEBODY is going to look like a fool if Igawa gets lit up and Dice-K dominates.
What does 300 win pitchers have to do with Kei Igawa? That might be the most trivial counter debate I’ve ever seen. Are you trying to say that Igawa will last longer than Matsuzaka? Because I don’t think anyone knows that.
However, anyone who has watched Igawa’s starts knows that he’s gotten away with pitches. He has not spotted his pitchers on a regular basis, and has hardly overpowered hitters. Matsuzaka, on the other hand, has looked thoroughly dominant.
Spring training stats don’t paint any sort of complete picture. Matsuzaka has looked much better this spring, and rightfully so, he’s a better pitcher. I really hope people wouldn’t even attempt to compare them, because the talent level isn’t even similar.
And why do people here still attempt to use wins to demonstrate a pitchers worth? It has long been proven that wins are just as much about factors outside of a pitchers control as they are of those he can. I’ll take ERA+, WHIP, K/BB, K/9, and BABIP any day over wins. Sure wins are what matter, but they don’t prove worth or performance. Those others are much better at doing that, and they are basic stats.
Hey Pete,
Earlier today you said:
“The Yankees will meet today to try and pick their pitching staff and select a starter for Opening Day.”
Any news on that? Have Henn, Bruney, Rasner, etc… made the team? Is Pavano the definite Opening Day starter?
Love your blog, btw…
rainbowtrout March 26th, 2007 at 10:42 pm
“Well, SOMEBODY is going to look like a fool if Igawa gets lit up and Dice-K dominates.”
Not really, because Igawa was brought in with low expectations. It is expected that Matsusaka will dominate. So the only ones with a chance of looking the fool are the ones that paid $103 million for a “guaranteed” #1 or #2. The Yankees have taken the stance of “we’ll see what happens” with Igawa from day one.
“What does 300 win pitchers have to do with Kei Igawa?”
The only reason I put that info out there was to show that being a power pitcher doesn’t guarantee that you are better than a finesse pitcher. That’s all. Just pointing out that it’s about 50-50 right now with the active wins leaders. It really didn’t have all that much to do with Igawa, other than to follow up on Murphydog’s point that velocity isn’t everything.
“And why do people here still attempt to use wins to demonstrate a pitchers worth?”
Are you saying a pitcher who has had a successful enough career to reach, or even approach, 300 wins can not be deemed better than the pitcher who dropped out of sight after 3-4 seasons, but was hyped as maybe “one of the best ever?” In the short term, you are probably right to say wins aren’t that important. But over a whole career, a pitcher who won a lot of games has to be considered as a great pitcher.
Joe from Long Island,
Kei and Wang are getting alone alright. They are communcating through a language mechine. Some Japanese and Taiwanese reporters are also helping out.
Now, they are sharing the same goal. Kei is looking forward to a pitching duel with Dice-K. Wang vs Dice-K will be a battle for “the best Asian pitcher ever�. They have seen each other in 2004 Olympics. They will see each other again this year. Wow!
What is this obsession and fear with Dice-K and all things Red Sox on this blog? I’m not quite sure what everyone is arguing about. The Red Sox have a pitcher from Japan that is probably going to be better than our pitcher from Japan. Why not compare our aces vs their aces and the other premier teams in the AL? Or Paps vs Mariano. That seems more vital to our chances. I mean, are Dice-K, Beckett and Schilling better than Wang, Moose and Andy?
(As a side question, I’m kind of old school and don’t know much about VORP and PETCOA or whatever it’s called – how close are their pre-season player projections to what really happens in season?)
Pete is an excellent blogger. He knows what buttons to push, and has managed to keep people interested in off-season nonsense. I mean, he has us all talking about nothing when we should be watching the Knicks or Rangers.
D-Mat and Igawa will have a Nomo affect where the hitters take longer to figure them out than it takes for them to figure out the hitters. Expect both of them to have good first halves and then mediocre second halves. Just a guess but seems to be a trend. I would say they will be as good as there ever going to be this year b4 every team gets there scouts on them and figure out what they have.
Griffey said D-Mat was pretty good and that he didn’t miss much. If he has good stuff+location he should be tough. Igawa as well.
who’s your vote for Cy Spring this year?
“but that’s one sick rotation: Schilling (Mr. Big Gamer), DMat (Mr. Cy Young 2007), and Beckett (Come Back Kid of the Year 2007)”
Puh-leeze. Am I the only one who thinks that only a Red Sox fan would say things that obnoxiously stupid and obviously biased about their starting rotation?
pete,
i can’t speak for the others, but i’ve seen matsuzaka this spring via mlb.tv. nasty, NASTY stuff. i’ve also seen igawa. the same can not be said for kei.
No, it doesn’t take a biased Red Sox fan to say that. The Red Sox rotation has the potential to be excellent this season. They have 3 potential aces in Schilling, Matsuzaka, and Beckett, although there are major questions regarding Schilling and Beckett. But I think it’s obvious that rotation has as much, if not more, potential than any staff in the game.
The Yankees best aspect right now is their pitching depth. No other team can match that right now.
what a surprise.
I meant annointing Beckett (Comeback Kid) and D-Mat (Cy Young 2007). Obnoxious and ridiculous.
I meant annointing Beckett (Comeback Kid) and D-Mat (Cy Young 2007). Obnoxious and ridiculous – although obviously taking to heart the talking heads analysis at ESPN.
http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/.....t_id=15140
from Jerry Crasnick of Espn
Steiny (NYC): What are your early World Series predictions?
Jerry Crasnick: Steiny,
My early World Series prediction is Boston over Atlanta. (And no, this isn’t East Coast, ESPN bias). I just like the Red Sox rotation and the move of Papelbon back to closer. In the NL, I just don’t think the Mets have the starting pitching, barring an in-season trade or two. It was either Atlanta or the Dodgers, and I decided to go with the Braves.
What’s a suprise Angel? And I agree on Beckett, but I disagree on Matsuzaka. He is truly that good, and every computer projection I have read has him being that good. When considering how accurate they have been in projecting Japanese pitchers in the past, and after watching him pitch, I truly believe in the kid. Throw in the fact that he’s just 26, and that’s a scary proposition for any Yankees fan.
The thing about Beckett is that he has about as much talent as anyone. Luckily, he has not put it all together thus far. It’s like a time bomb, I pray he doesn’t put it together any time soon. But don’t kid yourself, he has an incredible upside.
I expect Schilling to fall off somewhat. Being that he is a power pitcher and that his weight is increasing, I see a decline coming.
The Sox rotation has potential, it’s also got a low floor. Schilling hasn’t been great in the reg. season. Beckett’s been hammered when he can’t get a breaking pitch over, not to mention blister issues. Wakefield is prone to those nightmare starts if his knuckleball is off.
I can’t say much for Matsuzaka, because he’s looked very good, not quite dominating. 104 pitches for 5 innings, 0 hits, 5 walks, 6Ks, against the Reds today. If he turns in a game like that against the Yankees and we feast on their shoddy middle relief (so long as our staff’s kept us in it). The Reds had few if any good cuts at his stuff, but if he’s out of the game by the 6th will it matter?
Mike, what other Japanese pitchers have you seen projections for in the past? Just curious because there haven’t been too many in recent memory worth actually projecting. All of the projections that I have seen have Matsuzaka being above-average, but not dominant. I am sure that he will have his days where he makes free-swinging teams look silly, but I am anxious to see how he matches up with lineups that have a decent amount of plate discipline (and no the Pirates don’t count). The ‘eyeball test’ (only for conversational value) says that he throws a flat 93 mph fastball, with a few different breaking pitches. Far from ‘nasty, NASTY.’
if we’re talking potential, the red sox have the best staff in baseball, bar none. will it actually shake out that way? who knows. but certainly, the red sox staff has the POTENTIAL to be incredibly dominant. i think beckett will be a little better than last year and schilling a bit worse. wakefield probably the same. matsuzaka is going to be very, very good. and i think they get clemens in june to fill out that 5th starter spot.
i think both the yankees and the red sox will be there in october. not sure who the wild card will be, though.
one thing i wish people would stop is the “we’ve won the division nine straight years, number 10 is a gimme” crap. nothing is guaranteed. ask the atlanta braves how successful you’ll be resting on past laurels.
David Staba of Niagara Falls Reporter picks the Yankees 3rd to win the Al east. Another clueless Yankees hater
http://www.niagarafallsreporte.....27.07.html
AL EAST
The Yankees still have a tremendous lineup, as well as a fragile rotation, a closer in danger of revealing his mortality in Mariano Rivera and an acidic clubhouse chemistry more likely to yield punches exchanged by Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez than a World Championship. By July, Joe Torre will wish George Steinbrenner had fired him last fa
Predicted finish:
Toronto
Boston
N.Y. Yankees
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Kasey, inside info on Clemens or have you been drinking at McMenamin’s with ‘Gloomy’ again?
Joe from Long Island:
In case you haven’t noticed. Taiwan was ruled by Japan during WWII. Furhermore, Taiwanese was fighting on the Japanese side. I don’t think there’s ever a problem between Taiwan and Japan.
Gloomy, are you sure you’re really a Yankees fan? I haven’t heard you say one positive thing about this team yet in a post.
And the amount of love that you gush on the Blowsox is ridiculous since I mean, I am sorry, but even with Papelbon back as closer I can’t see how you can legitimately just award the Red Sox with the World Series title. They still have a terrible bullpen. I mean it’s just wretched. Guys like Joel Pineiro aren’t going to magically start dominating out of the blue– it just doesn’t happen–and no matter how good your closer is, you have to be able to carry the game to that closer in order to win it. No matter how good the (overhyped) rotation is, the starters can’t do that alone. And that’s just one of a multitude of reasons you need a good bullpen, which I am sure you know.
More importantly though, you simply can’t dominate the AL East let alone any division without a good bullpen. This holds especially true against a team like the Yankees, who, as a team, are extraordinarily talented at racking up a pitcher’s pitch count. Do you even remember how many pitches were thrown in that 5 game series last August? I don’t, because it was RIDICULOUS. But I’ll tell you that just on the day of the doubleheader alone, both teams combined to throw 783 pitches and used 20 pitchers. Wow.
And wait, who won that contest? … We did. With a crappier rotation than we have now. And our pitching in general has only gotten better since then (I am not going to even touch upon how incredible our farm system is right now pitching-wise). In general though, Mo is better than Pap until proven otherwise, especially sicne it has yet to be shown that he can’t even pitch a full season in the closer role. Remember: he got shut down. And as I have said ad infinitum here, our bullpen will remain better this year (barring a disaster like Ron Villone making the team). ‘Nuff said.
In addition to all this, as I mentioned, the Blowsox’s rotation is ridiculously overrated. Yes, Schilling has the potential to be clutch and is probably the most dependable starter in their rotation after his performance last season. But he’s also extraordinarily fat and old and on his way out of Boston. So I don’t know how much attention his comeback year last year deserves when projecting his 2007 performance. 40 years old…240 plus pounds…Several thousand donut? Yeah, that just SCREAMS World Series. He reminds me of David Wells two years ago, who had a great season for Boston. Last year…not so much. I expect Schilling to do the same.
On a side note though, I don’t like the guy, not for any personal reason–I don’t know him–but after watching him lead two different teams to World Series titles that should have been ours, I despise him. Yeah, sue me, I am a Yankees fan and I don’t like anybody that beat us. I respect his skill, his career, and what he’s done for the game but you know what? Damn him and the bloody sock. Also, going back to at least semi-objective statements, in 4 games vs. the NYY last year he posted a 4.18 ERA, definitely not what I would call “dominant.”
Now going to Beckett, ok yeah, in theory Beckett’s due for a bounceback year considering how good his stuff is and the fact that he’s 26. But he’s still a National League pitcher in the AL East, and it’s pretty freaking clear he doesn’t know how to pitch to an AL team full of big bats that aren’t afraid of a fastball… case in point–a minimum 5 plus ERA to almost every team in the AL East, including a 9 plus ERA to none other than the New York Yankees.
And Dice-k?
Please.
Beckett was supposed to rock last year (as was a guy named AJ Burnett for the Blue Jays) and he at least had played in the MLB for a couple of seasons, albeit in an increasingly inferior league. Give me a break here, Dice-K’s not going to be the next Pedro for Boston. I don’t care what PECOTA says. He’s not going to be a true #1 or #2 this year by a long shot. He will have moments of brilliance, but he’s also going to get LIT UP at times. Expect Dice-K to underwhelm and our good ol’ Kei to exceed all expectations (at the very least, Jaret Wright).
I am really way too lazy to go on, but I really don’t see how a team that clearly has the potential to perform so badly can easily just be said to win it all. The Yankees are not without flaws either, but the team has only gotten better since last year, and we were able to handily beast the Red Sox with a lesser team last year.
As far as the division goes:
New York
Boston
Toronto
Tampa Bay
Baltimore
Igawa will be a better buy than dice k at the end of the season !
I guess Igawa’s not “the Japanese Jared Wright” after all, eh Pete? Hope you learned a lesson from not trashing guys based on two spring training starts.
correction – learned a lesson not to trash guys based on two ST starts. And now you’ve gone in the other direction, suggesting he’s as good as Matsuzaka, again based on spring training stats! Sheesh.
rbizzler,
mcmenamin’s has a delicious burger called the neon burger. they’ve got another one with egg on it that i’ve heard is great.
no inside info on clemens. i just think that’s how it plays out. i’ve listed my reasons several times.
i think dice-k’s 5 no hit innings has just pushed the comparison off the charts for me. i think igawa’s gonna be good, but dice-k… he may pitch lights out, especially first time around the league…
5 no hit innings with 5 walks and 104 pitches, almost Jaret Wright like. The jury’s still out on this one.
Pete you bash everyone for talking about pitches that don’t count, then you go comparing their spring training stats, a whole bunch of numbers that don’t count. Pot, Kettle, Black.
“if we’re talking potential, the red sox have the best staff in baseball, bar none.”
Kasey, how can you say this? A rotation of Schilling, Dice-K, Beckett, Wakefield, and Tavarez is so easily the best rotation in baseball? You need to get your credentials checked. I don’t think that potential is so easily ahead of that of the rotations in LA(NL), AZ, SD, Detroit, or even *gasp* the Yankees. That Sox rotation has as many questions as any other. Schilling and Wakefield both have their AARP cards, and neither has been dominant in a couple years now. Plus, they have both had major injury issues the last two years. Dice-K has not thrown a major league pitch so to say hands down that he’s going to be great is completely unfounded at this point, and Beckett- well, long ball issues, health issues, mind issues. Let’s not even talk about Tavarez. Meanwhile the Yankees have three guys who could also anchor a staff if everything breaks right in Pettitte, Moose, and Wang. Hell, Pavano once anchored a major league staff, and quite well, too, so he’s got this ‘potential’ you speak of. Bottom line is the Sox are getting incredibly hyped up because every damn ESPN columnist is a biased Sox fan. All I see is the same rotation, plus one guy who’s never thrown a major league pitch, that led their team to a third place finish last year. Hardly a group I would crown best potential in baseball bar none.
I think they are both going to have their great games and both going to have their struggles. Obviously Dice K has the better stuff but can he make the adjustments. Hes not a power pitcher here like he was in Japan and hitters here will feast on that 92mph fastball if he insists on leaving it up.
No, Mike. My lack of surprise is in Kasey talking up the Red Sox yet again. Its a bit of deja vu.
Personally, I prefer to let the season play out before annointing players the second coming of Nolan Ryan or Babe Ruth. I have no reason to believe that D-Mat won’t be that good, but I think a lot of the ESPN/Fox Sports etc hype is a little premature.
Where’s everyone getting 92 and 93 MPH from? In his last 2 starts I’ve seen him work around 95. And his breaking stuff has been far from flat, it’s been plain old nasty. If this kid were on the Yankees, this conversation would be completely different from you guys.
Yo Rich anytime you want to have a real debate you let me know. Until then keep a sock in it. Plus I have read your comments here, you’re no Einstein buddy.
Okay people. Mike from Matsuzaka Watch here. I’ve been watching both Igawa and Matsuzaka for 3+ years now. I’ve seen the good and the bad of both of them. Matsuzaka is one of the top 5-10 pitchers in the world. Igawa will be a solid Major League pitcher, who occasionally baffles lineups and occasionally walks the ballpark. Matsuzaka is incredibly consistent and works a dynamite change and slider against his plus fastball. He is not a flam thrower as much as he is a pitcher with multiple plus tools and a bulldog mentality on the mound. Igawa has a good fastball and an excellent change. His other pitches are iffy. The change is effective because he knows how and when to throw it. His problem is not “stuff” but rather consistency with location.
Anyone who thinks Igawa is in the same conversation as Matsuzaka clearly hasn’t seen enough of either of them to know. That said, Igawa will be better than many people thought. The thing is, so will Matsuzaka.
This is insane. Igawa has a 1.47 WHIP to Dice-K’s .93!!! I suppose their lines look pretty similar in the sense that both lines are a set of numbers.
Igawa has allowed 25 base runners to Matsuzaka’s 16, and Matsuzaka has pitched 2/3 of an inning MORE!
Igawa hasn’t been close to the pitcher Matsuzaka has been. Give me a BREAK.
Mike from Matsuzaka Watch:
Judging from your blog, you clearly cannot stop GUSHING about Matsuzaka being the baseball equivalent of Roger Federer, how can we trust your overly optimistic opinion of him???
cliu…
Do a little more reading. I like to make it rosy, but in fact there is plenty of sound analysis there. Enough that Baseball Prospectus invited me to write for them about Japanese Baseball this season. I am done trying to convince people though. You can watch for yourself this season and we’ll talk later.
You are so racist.
“The Yankees best aspect right now is their pitching depth. No other team can match that right now.”
Um, Did Mike really say that?
As of today folks….
Sox team ERA: 3.21 (3rd best in MLB)
Yankee team ERA: 4.83 (25th of 30)
Just thought you’d like to know, for those Yankee fans too lazy to pull out the newspaper and look up the actual stats.