Taking a shot at the roster
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Mar 27, 2007 
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Brian Cashman and Joe Torre don’t plan to decide on a roster until Friday. Here is what I would do:
Infielders (7): Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez, Doug Mientkiewicz, Miguel Cairo, Josh Phelps.
Outfielders (4): Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, Melky Cabrera.
Catchers (2): Jorge Posada, Todd Pratt.
Starting pitchers (5): Mike Mussina, Carl Pavano, Andy Pettitte, Kei Igawa, Darrell Rasner.
Relief pitchers (7): Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, Mike Myers, Scott Proctor, Luis Vizcaino, Ron Villone, Brian Bruney.
Explanations: I’m not sold on Phelps because he has a big swing with a hitch and how will that work coming off the bench? But Phillips could clear waivers and you can’t ignore what Phelps has done. … Cairo was on the team when he signed, case closed. … Pratt is the classic “Torre loves experience” choice. Plus he could get a big hit once in a while and I’m not sure Nieves will do that. … Rasner would be the long man/spot starter until the Wanger gets back. … I take Villone because he proved himself last season before they wore him out. You option Henn and take the chance on Villone. $2.5 million is spare change to the Yankees. … Bruney makes it because they don’t need a long man early on and he has regained his slider.
so is karstens officially on the dl?
You keep Henn and DFA Villone. Henn is lefty who throws in the mid 90s. They don’t grow on trees and he’s ready. Villone is cooked.
um, i’m no huge henn fan, but you have seen villone pitch this spring, right pete? ron villone, that’s who we’re talking about, right?
Hey Pete, just wondering:
With Nieves out of options and a lot younger than Pratt (29 compared to 40 i think) why not go with Nieves who’s better defensively, especially with no heir apparent to Posada? I know Torre loves the experience factor, but who really cares how well the backup catcher hits?
Any way Bean gets in? I think he deserves it. But if you’re carrying two lefties, and Bruney should be in, and Mo, Farnie, the Proctor-ologist and Vizcaino are set, well there’s no room for the big boy huh.
Would he be on the short list of call ups if someone like Rasner or Bruney gets sent down early?
Villone was lousy last spring too. How did he do in May, June and July? Spring training statistics are MEANINGLESS for veteran players. Give him a shot and if he fails, look at Henn. He’s the next to last guy in the bullpen anyway.
I think Joe would rather gouge his eyes out with a rusty spoon than take Colter Bean to New York.
spring statistics are MEANINGLESS for veteran players, but matsui’s spring leads you to believe he’s poised for a big year, you made note of a-rod’s spring numbers when he had only one extra-base hit, and mo’s spring leads you to believe he’ll be great for another 3-4 years.
huh.
Forget about Villone’s spring, what about his career? He had some good months for the Yankees, some bad months afterward (so we know we can’t rely on him to make it to the playoffs) and, most importantly, the career stats of a below-average pitcher. And plus he’s old!
Hennnnn!
Picking Villone over Henn is just choosing veteraness over talent. Bad way to run a ballclub.
Nieves is very replaceable.Last year Yankees played roster snafu to get Nieves and Koy Hill through waivers and they both suck.Ben Davis is better than Nieves
what does Torre have against Bean?
I agree with you Pete on Villone….why not take a chance. If he cant get it together, release him and call up Henn. Henn will get his chance.
Hey Peter:
I agree on 96% of the final roster you drew up. I wouldn’t take Villone over Henn, but I think Torre and Cash will. The point where I disagree is on Rasner. Why do you think he’ll get the nod over Karstens? Do you know something I don’t know?
I would have to agree with Peter on Villone. Putting it in basics, Henn has one option left and the Yanks are going to use it. Put Villone on the roster and see how it turns out. If he bombs come May/June, DFA him and bring up Henn. Villone proved last year – at least for him – it took him longer than most to cook and prep for the season. If he doesn’t come around by May/June, you got Henn. (Not that that’s a serious upgrade or anything).
“I agree with you Pete on Villone….why not take a chance. If he cant get it together, release him and call up Henn. Henn will get his chance.”
well, it’s $2.5M to take that chance. still worth it?
Put Villone on the roster and see how it turns out. If he bombs come May/June, DFA him and bring up Henn”
again, you are flushing $2.5M down the toilet if that happens
“Villone was lousy last spring too. How did he do in May, June and July? ”
ah, the Tanyon Sturtze school of roster management: letting a small sample outweigh the entire body of work that is Villone’s career.
Villone pitched great in May-July, but i think the question to be answered this spring was if Torre destroyed his arm in August.
he’s done. stick a fork in him.
If you guys were Torre and you could only save Villone (over Henn) or Phillips (over Phelps), who would you fight for?
Pete, you know I love you man, but you are on crack. Villone has never in his life been a good pitcher. He sports career numbers:
4.78 ERA
1.493 WHIP
7.16 K/9
1.48 K/BB
Those are decent numbers for a 5th starter on a second place ballclub. They are certainly not the numbers of a $2.5 million relief pitcher. Do you honestly want to pay Ron Villone to come into a ballgame and give up a run every other inning he pitches? That’s what his ERA means from a relief standpoint. On the Pirates, maybe. On the Yankees…huh?
Again, love you brother. Say no to crack (and Ron Villone).
i think they had an understanding with villone (he turned down a 2 year deal someplace else) and he was always going to make the team, the probably just didn’t want to make a 40 man roster move until they lost Phelps or Phillips. Not a great idea to go back on gentleman’s agreements. I’m just hoping and its looking this way that Bruney going to make the the team outta camp. after the way he pitched last year the stuff he has and he’s pitched well after slow start he could be great and i don’t wanna mess with his head.
Let Joe run Villone in the ground before they bring up Henn b/c then he can’t run him into the ground in 07. By 08 that mission will probably be accomplished though.
Villone is cooked. Man, between wanting the Yanks to get Leiber and keep Villone, I’m starting to think you have Dice-K Fever, Pete. Both ideas make the Yankees worse.
“I would have to agree with Peter on Villone. Putting it in basics, Henn has one option left and the Yanks are going to use it. Put Villone on the roster and see how it turns out. If he bombs come May/June, DFA him and bring up Henn.”
—-
I don’t understand why people like to say things like these – “Let’s wait for him to cost us a few games in the standings, which may be important when all is said and done, before we get rid of him.”
I would take Henn over Villone. But why is it Henn vs. Villone? Britton hasn’t pitched very well lately, but he too should be in the mix. This is about taking the best 12 pitchers (who are ready for the big leagues) with you when you break camp; this shouldn’t be about taking a pitcher with a LONG history of mediocrity just because of the fact that he throws left-handed.
Villone doesn’t belong on the roster in any way, shape, or form. And the bigger problem for me is that if he does go north and compiles a 1.50 ERA in 10 April innings, Torre will see that as reason to keep him around the full year as his ERA inevitably creeps up to his career norm.
Enough of this “Torre abused him” stuff – he is what he is. If you spread out 45 Villone appearances over 162 games, he’ll end up with an ERA around 4.80-5.00. It’s not like he showed in a previous baseball life that he is some sort of good pitcher if you use him sparingly, afterall.
I’d also take Henn over Villone. Henn’s paid his dues in the minors – he seems to have found his niche as a relieve (anyone have his AAA stats as a RP last year? They were much better than as a SP). If you go to baseball-reference.com – Villone’s career numbers are far from overwhelming – the only reason he’s stuck around this long is because he’s left-handed.
One guy who never gets brought up is Alberto Gonzalez. He came over in the Unit trade. He’s got the tools and glove to be a solid MLB utility man. I know they signed Cairo first – but I almost feel the Yanks need to start giving more of these “reserve” spots to their younger players. It gives them more flexibility especially if things don’t work out.
As for the pen overall – the Yanks are playing from one of their biggest strengths. They have the arms plus Bean, Beam, Cox, Britton are all down in AAA if and when someone gets hurt. Also, watch out for Humberto Sanchez – he’s been hurt all spring. But I’ve read his future forecasts as a starter or a reliever. Once he gets healthy (late April? May?), Sanchez could contribute to the pen by mid-season. I like having young power arms in the mix for the playoffs – especially ones that teams don’t have extensive scouting reports on. (see Mo Rivera 1995, K-Rod 2002, Wainright 2006, Jaret Wright – though he started in 1995, Livan 1997 – etc).
Agreed with Peter.
You take the 2.5 million chance on Villone and option Henn to the minors. Did you forget? We are the Yankees……2.5 million is pocket change.
Villone has great career numbers in the first half. Let’s capitalize on that, if he goes sour in the second half, just bring up Henn.
What is the big deal? We ARE talking about SEAN HENN here……not Cy Young.
Michael:
Very simply, you did miss something. Karstens left his last start on Sunday after only 2 innings and will be shut down for a while to heal whatever elbow problems he has. Thankfully the tests came back negative. That’s why Rasner over Karstens. Karstens may be DL’d to give his elbow a rest.
On the Villone note, Villone does go against Cashman’s goal of “younger, deeper, cheaper”
I’d take Henn over Villone….But ,Torre will have boat load of relievers for April(not needing 5th starter really). Torre won’t use all of them (unless we have entered a parallel universe). So let Villone rot on the bench or have to through his arm off again while Henn gets ready for later season run in minors. Like Pete said chump change, for Villone.
Sure $2.5MM is spare change for the Yankees. Let’s see if Gabe White wants $1.75MM to come back because we can afford it. And I bet Doug Glanville is around if Melky gets hurt, and we can afford to throw $3MM at him for a few months of help. Like i said, chump change.
Pete, reality check: Ron Villone is cooked. On top of being cooked, he wasn’t particularly good in the first place. the only thing he had going for him on this roster is his perceived ability to fill the long reliever role. If you actually trust him at this point to come in for 3+ innings and give up less than 3 runs, you’re crazy.
the contradictions in your posts on a day-to-day basis are hilarious. one day spring stats mean nothing, the next they are an indicator of an entire season.
If you had it your way we’d have Villone, Phillips, Lieber, and no Farnsworth. All I can say is thank god you don’t run this team.
Nieves and Henn. All other things equal, they are younger, more athletic, and cheaper, which I thought was the idea. 2.5M is 2.5M, particularly if you are looking at pretty much no additional value for it. And Ron Villone with his wheels off, rusting in the dooryard after the all star break is pretty much no additional value.
We need right-handed pop, we had the lowest average in the game against southpaws last year….254…
I.E. Phelps better make the team or heads will rolllllLlll!!L!L!LL!Ll111
” “Let’s wait for him to cost us a few games in the standings, which may be important when all is said and done, before we get rid of him.â€?”
It’s 162 games. If Villone is going to be horrible, I don’t think they’ll wait until game #158 to get rid of him.
“I would take Henn over Villone. But why is it Henn vs. Villone?”
Because the Yankees want another lefty in the bullpen to face Left Handed batters or lineups. Britton is a RHP.
“this shouldn’t be about taking a pitcher with a LONG history of mediocrity just because of the fact that he throws left-handed.”
The fact is, left handed pitchers fare better against left handed batters. Villone proved very useful last summer and I bet everyone here wasn’t whining like this during his months of effectiveness. He at the very least deserves another look. Even if he starts to fall off by the end of summer, trade him and bring up Henn. Villone is not going to be the long man. That will be Karsten’s role when his elbow stops hurting. Villone will be a one inning guy/maybe two. With Vizciano, Farns, Proctor, Myers, Bruney, and of course Mo, I don’t see Villone going 4 innings. It’s called depth for a reason.
“We need right-handed pop, we had the lowest average in the game against southpaws last year….254…”
This is why you need at least two left handed pitchers in the bullpen.
I don’t understand the reticence over saying the team should take Phelps over Phillips. We already have a better defensive infield utility man in Cairo, and Phelps has a longer history of hitting better than Phillips. I would’ve given Phelps the job before spring training.
Also, I take Britton over Villone, and I don’t look back. Britton had a successful season in 2006, facing AL East lineups.
Villone looks cooked, completely and totally done.
I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again – we need a defensive firstbaseman, not a masher at the #9 spot. If Phelps is the difference maker in our lineup, we’ve got bigger troubles than Henn vs Villone. With the slew of ground ball pitchers in the rotation, the number of runs saved is more of a plus than getting output from the nine hole.
Theres no downside to taking Villone right now. Henn has options. He gets more work in the minors and refines his stuff and if Villone doesnt workout he can come up.
I never would have resigned Villone in the first place. Someone would have signed him and Yanks would have gotten an extra draft pick in the Supplemental round. With this year’s draft class a strong one, that would have been beneficial. Henn deserved a shot, and if they weren’t comfortable with him, most of the righties in the pen have great stats against lefies anyway, making a 2nd lefty in the pen not as important.
Doesn’t it make more sense to do the reverse of what you’re suggesting? Villone is signed to a minor league deal. Henn has an option. Start with Villone (who has looked far less impressive) in SWB and Henn in the Bronx. If Henn proves ineffective, option him down and call up Villone. Worst case scenario, Henn stinks up the joint and gets replaced. Best case scenario, Henn is lights out, you get the better reliever on the roster and you save $2.5 mill.
Andy Phillips
sample size 2006: 94 games
Offense:
G: 110
AB: 246
R: 30
H: 59
HR: 7
RBI: 29
SO: 3
AVG: .240
OBP: .281
SLG: .394
OPS: .675
Defense:
Range Factor: 9.60
Zone Rating: .867
Josh Phelps
based off 2005 stats x 2: (only played 47 games with TB in 2005)
Offense:
G: 94
AB: 316
R: 42
H: 84
HR: 10
RBI: 52
SO: 96
AVG: .265
OBP: .328
SLG: .424
OPS: .752
Defense:
(note: last played 1B consistently was in 2004 (Cle/Tor) (only played 1 game at 1B in 2005 for the DRays) so extrapolated from career stats: 31 games started x 3.)
Range Factor: 8.59
Zone Rating: .744
the sample sizes are small considering they’re rookies, but Phelps has the edge on offense and Phillip has a bigger edge on defense and range. So what’s more important? Offense or defense? What would the 1996-2000 yankees want?
Pete,
Is this who you would bring up? Or is this who you’re predicting will be brought up?
-Saucy
Greg – problem with that scenario is that if the Yankees option him, Villone has the right to become a free agent and leave. So it’s either play him or release him. There is no option on Villone.
He’s signed to a minor league deal though, isn’t he? Doesn’t that mean he wouldn’t have to be optioned since he isn’t technically on the big league team? I could just be misunderstanding the way a minor league deal works.
I agree on Phelps over Phillips.
I TOTALLY disagree on Villone over Henn. You gotta take Henn.
Also, Pratt is a DEFENSIVE liability. He can’t make a throw to 2nd base. You gotta go Nieves.
“Villone has great career numbers in the first half. Let’s capitalize on that, if he goes sour in the second half, just bring up Henn.”
define “great”:
career 1st half ERA: 4.44
career 2nd half ERA: 5.09
“The fact is, left handed pitchers fare better against left handed batters. ”
Villone career vs. lefthanders: .241/.349/.360 .709 OPS
Vizcaino career vs. lefthander: .229/.310/.400 .710 OPS
no need to carry Villone.
sunny615,
Are those strikeout numbers correct? Andy only struck out 3 times in 246 at bats?
Greg:
Normally yes, but his contract specifically allows him to become a free agent if he doesn’t make the major league roster.
Sorry mel – Phillips has 56 Strikeouts and 3 stolen bases.
At the same time tho – in 2006 Villone’s stats before the All star break were 3-1 with a 2.26 ERA in 36 appearances.
Over the last three seasons, Villone has compiled a 2.58 ERA before the All-Star break and a 6.23 mark following it.
Thanks, sunny. That was a pretty eye-popping statistic. lol.
I would have taken Phillips over Phelps, sight unseen based on what Phelps was a couple of years ago. However, Josh is a better looking player than he was when he washed out a few years ago. He has better bat control (although still a long swing) and he just seems more coordinated. He looks more comforatble at 1B. Also, he has handled his ABs very well when only getting a handful of chances. That’s an important skill since the backup righty isn’t going to get regualar ABs.
I’m not making this judgement based on his results because spring numbers are next to meaningless. He just looks like he has matured physically in the minors and fits this role.
I do hope Phillips clears waivers.
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