The Abreu factor on A-Rod
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jun 11, 2007 
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The Yankees have hit Bobby Abreu third and Alex Rodriguez fourth 37 times this season.
In those games, A-Rod is 51 of 146 (.349) with 19 homers and 55 RBI.
In every other game, A-Rod is 19 of 84 (.226) with five homers and 8 RBI.
That’s a fairly significant difference. Rodriguez has said several times this season how much he loves hitting behind Abreu because he sees so many pitches from on deck.
The Yankees have tried Hideki Matsui, Jason Giambi and Derek Jeter in front of Rodriguez. But clearly something clicks with Abreu.
Makes you wonder, can they keep those two together next season?
Can’t argue with results.
Yes they can, and I think they will keep A-Rod. Maybe stats like yours above (and A-Rod’s own words) are a campaign for Abreu…….
How about Abreu’s numbers when he bats in front of A-Rod vs anywhere else in the lineup?
… yes they can – keep them together, that is to say… (not can argue with results)
Doesnt Abreu have a team option? And A Rod is under contract for 3 more yrs.
So I would think its pretty solid. As long as they tack on an extension to A Rod which I cant see them not doing.
Where are all the guys who wanted Abreu traded 3 weeks ago?
They disappear just like all the Season is Over trolls?
Meanwhile Today Buster “Rabbit” Olney Chat
[quote]http://proxy.espn.go.com/chat/chatESPN?event_id=16143
Sam (Spokane, WA): Does Teixeira end up in the Bronx?
SportsNation Buster Olney: Sam: Not a chance before he becomes a free agent, unless Brian Cashman is stripped of power and George Steinbrenner starts making deals himself.
Chad (Bethesda, MD): Whats goin on with the Teixeira rumors? I feel the Rangers should/will trade him for young arms…If the O’s continue to struggle, would they still go after him? I dont know if trading Cabrera or anyother pitchers for him is sucha good idea…
SportsNation Buster Olney: Chad: Here’s what executives with other teams believe is the major problem for Jon Daniels — because Teixeira is considered to be the best and most valuable player in the organization, there is going to be an expectation from the fan base, and from Tom Hicks, that the Rangers should get a huge return for Teixeira. But because Tex is represented by Boras, and is 16 months away from becoming a free agent who will probably demand a contract north of $100 million, the Rangers probably won’t get close to getting a huge package of players. If they get two B-plus/A-minus prospects, they would be doing very, very well. Now, the Dodgers’ need for a middle-of-the-order hitter is acute right now, and maybe that will put the pressure on them (or the Angels) to offer up a package like Billingsley/Loney; for the Angels, maybe Saunders/Wood. But it’s hard to imagine them getting more than that, we’ll see. The Orioles and Rangers are not a good match, because the O’s aren’t a playoff contender and they won’t give up their young pitching to get Teixeira, only to see him walk away after next year.
Mike P. (Watertown MA): What would it take for the Red Sox to get Saltalamacchia from the Braves?
SportsNation Buster Olney: Mike P: That conversation has to start with either Lester or Ellsbury, from the Braves’ perspective .Good left-handed hitting catchers are very rare….
[/quote]
B- and A- Prospects in order to get Texiera.
What do you guys think of this:
http://www.waswatching.com/arc.....eu_my.html
Clearly contradicts what Peter argued earlier in the season, and what he continues to argue now. I’m not sure, qualitatively the results that Peter speaks of seem to be there, but this seems to say otherwise.
I never jumped on the dump Abreu bandwagon as I knew he would come out of it and get back to what he does best.
The Yankees would be dumb to let him go after this season. Sign him for 2 more years. He is a great player to have on the team. Not only for his hitting, but for his clubhouse presence. You really won’t meet a nicer guy. He brings a nice relaxed vibe.
One thing to consider with a possible Texiera trade, the Yankees can dangle the $10million the Rangers still pay A-Rod and release them from it and pay it themselves. Just sayin’.
if you people think a-rod is isnt opting out – youre dead wrong . its all about the money with baseball players . i would want abreu back at 10-12 mill / yr not 16 mill .
Abreu has a $16 million option ($2 million buyout) next year. If he ends the year in line with his career averages, it may look like a good deal. Of course there are a million variables in play until then.
The funny thing is that a few weeks ago the thought of picking up Bobby’s option was laughable. Now it’s plausible.
You’re out of your mind if you think Cashman is trading prospects for anything other than pitching.
He’ll go the low rent route on offense. Like Abreu last yr. Trade non prospects. If he trades legit prospects it will be for pitching.
I had a feeling the numbers wouldn’t support the theory that Abreu helps ARod by letting him see more pitches, just because Giambi and Jeter are also patient hitters. But hey, like I said, you can prove any theory with success. Abreu is a high OBP guy who takes pitches, and ARod hits for average and power. That’s a combination for success. If ARod gets enthusiastic over Abreu’s approach to hitting, more power to him.
I love the people who say they’d love Abreu back but at 10 instead of 16.
Who cares?
Are you paying it? Is it effecting ANYTHING the Yanks do in helping the team?
Of course not. They’re paying Pavano 10 mill to stay away. They’re payign Clemens a mil a start.
Salary doesnt matter to the Yanks. They’re not the Royals and this isnt the NBA or NFL with a cap.
Abreu and A Rod will definitely still be together next year, that Angel team is going to be unstoppable
Salary does matter to the Yankees. If it didn’t, they wouldn’t be working so hard to reduce the payroll or bother having any budgets.
Salary matters for three reasons: One, they are spending a billion dollars of their own money to build a new ballpark. They don’t have an unlimited supply of money. It has to come from somewhere and if they can reduce the salary by 50 million dollars, that’s 10 years worth of bond payments toward the stadium.
Two, the Yankees are tired of subsidizing their opponents through excessive amounts of luxury tax payments. The more the Yankees pay, the more bad teams get to keep their own players. That hurts the Yankees.
Three, it limits their in season options if they need to make deals. If they are overpaying at certain positions (Giambi’s contract, for example), it makes it tough to acquire solid, in season options when needed.
Its why they are so determined to build their future pitching staff via the farm system. It saves them a ton of money. No organization, even the Yankees, can afford to keep blowing the millions of dollars the Yankees have blown on pitching the last several years.
I hope that they keep A-Rod around for years to come, but it is going to be a crazy, annoying, drawn out ridiculous process when he opts out and looks for a longer and more lucrative contract than the three years he has remaining.
Abreu-wise, I think the Yankees would be just fine looking elsewhere and YES, there is a big difference between 10 and 16 million dollars. Just because they CAN afford to do it doesn’t mean the Yankees should. Would you erase Carl Pavano if you could? I would. The Yankees are trying to get away from the unnecessary big spending. Why not pour that $6 million in to the farm and look for someone younger and cheaper for RF? Likewise, saving that kind of money allows the Yankees flexibility when there is a Free Agent that simply cannot be passed up…like Johann Santana.
You’re wrong. salary doesnt matter.
Length of contracts matter.
They dont want to be locked into any Giambi type 7 yr deals.
But one or 2 yr deals or even 3 doesnt matter.
Example
Giving Pettitte the 2 yr deal. Price doesnt matter. Same with Clemens. Abreu at one y 16 is better than someone else at 8 yrs 130mill.
The Yanks dont care about the amount. They care about the length. Flexibility is all that matters to them.
SJ44…you are wise beyond your years (even though I have no idea how old you are).
Personally, I have grown to hate the ridiculous amounts of money they have been spending on FAs of late.
Carl Pavano was a hot commodity when he was an FA and there were plenty of teams after him. The fact that he got hurt 100 times is not the Yankees fault and is simply bad luck.
But wouldn’t it have been nice to have been able to bring up a prospect and save that $$? The Yankees didn’t have that option when they signed Carl. Now, they are on a fast track towards affording themselves that option in the future.
Saving money. The Yankees. Are you joking, Larry?
You think anything would stop them from bidding on someone like Santana if he was available and for free?
They can afford to make mistakes like Pavano and Henson and Karsay and whoever because they are the Yankees. Its one of their big advantages they have to use.
A normal team that had Pavano wouldnt be able to go out and fix it with a Clemens. Or a Pettitte. They’d be stuck til the contract ran out.
No bad contract the Yanks sign effects them. Business doesnt change. And as Yank fans we should all be grateful.
Is it smart to have 3-4 bad deals on the books? Obviously not but it happens to everyone. Look at how many teams were begging Pavano to sign up. You have to minimize the bad deals and keep incorporating young ie cheap players onto the team. Ie Cano, Melky, Wang, Hughes, Clippard, etc.
Stay flexibile.
So when does a deal “matter”? If Damon had signed a 3-year deal instead of a 4-year deal, would his deal no longer “matter”?
Jake, you are babbling.
Clemens and Pettitte are pitchers with proven track records in NY. They are also older and not interested in long contracts.
Outfield is a position with tremendous depth across the league. There are pleny of OFs that are as good or better than Abreu and are younger and are probably cheaper.
The idea is to find flexibility with the farm and pitching staff (which is at a premium for all teams now) and then fill in the more plentiful holes (like 1B, OF).
Even the Yankees have their limits.
Exhibit A) Not getting Carlos Beltran because they traded and signed for Randy Johnson.
200 Million is the limit and now the Yankees are working to go below that.
A 4 yr deal for Damon isnt a killer. A 7 yr deal for Damon would have been a killer.
You’re not going to sign free agents nowadays for less than 4 yrs if they’re talents like a Damon. Cashman did a great job there. You’re paying for the flexibility. So you give him an extra 2 mill a yr instead of the extra 2 yrs. It pays off because you can give that money up. It doesnt matter.
Even pitchers today are getting 5 yr deals. Injury disasters like AJ Burnett get 5 yrs. The mistakes teams make in Free Agency are only going to get worse. Thats why you need a farm system that is top of the line especially stocked with pitching.
So you’re not taking chances on 7 yr deals for pitchers ala Zito and Ryan. Not every team could recover from a bad contract length wise. They wont be able to sign anyone for yrs. If Ryans elbow is shot, the Jays are shot for yrs.
What Free Agent out there are you going to get thats cheaper in RF next yr than Abreu?
You’re going to have to go to 6-7 yrs on Ichiro, Jones, Dye, Hunter, etc.
That zaps any flexibility. But Abreu at one yr for 16 mill is nothing. You may say hes worth 10 but who knows and more importantly who cares? Its better than being locked into long term deals.
I’m sure the Yanks would have liked Giambis contract a little more if it was 4 yrs instead of 7. Even if they had to pay more on avg for those 4 yrs.
The Yankees not signing Beltran was one of the biggest mistakes of the post 2001 teams.
How many chances do you get to have a star in their 20′s during free agency?
Especially a proven playoff guy who wanted to play in NY?
You dont think some team out there would have given Pettitte a 4yr deal if he asked for it???
Its part of what Cashmans doing. Small deals. More money. More flexibility for future. Not be locked into anything. He also gets the bonus of getting 2 pitchers who he knows are NY tough.
Then again they should never have let Andy go in the first place. Ridiculous.
Not sure I’m buying Arod is great just because Abreu is hitting in front of him. I think the stats are kinda out of whack cause Arod had a crazy April. I think he was just going to hit no matter who was in front of him then. Don’t get me wrong I think Abreu helps but not as much as stats say.
I think part of the reason for the A-Rod is great when Abreu is doing has to do with the fact that there is someone on base when Alex comes up so they have to pitch to him more carefully and if they make the slighted mistake Alex will make them pay. If Alex is first up or there is no one base they can pitch around him more and because he’s would be anxious to get something started he may not be as selective.
There are two recent times that Abreu walked to load the bases and Alex coming up, one ended in a grand slam and the other ended in a sac fly. There was no where to put Alex so they had to pitch to him with great results on our end.
Anthony CA,
Years ago I had an argument over a Rob Neyer column, wherein Neyer argued that the reason why the Expos were competing (I forget the season, but it was one of their last ones when they were somewhat competitive, even under the threat of contraction), was because they were getting more hitters on base through BBs.
I argued that this is the type of statistical analysis that I disliked, because you could actually go and pour through the data (and maybe set-up more precise tests) that would allow one to determine if and when the extra base runners (which had been walked) actually WERE scoring at even a similar clip as previous years (since arguably, scoring at a same clip when on base means more runs since you have more baserunners).
In essence, I hate simplistic statistical analysis and prefer to actually look through the data instead of averaging things out.
I think we can all agree that Abreu has been hot in the 10 games the Yankees have played in June:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....yerId=3537
I’ll use those at bats to figure out how many pitches Abreu is seeing batting ahead of A-Rod and A-Rod’s production.
(see next post, so this is not too long a post).
June 1st (Yanks win 9-5 against Boston)
Abreu batted 7th, so he was not in front of A-Rod.
BTW – Abreu was 4-2 that day, with 1BB (A-Rod 3-1, with 1 BB).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....038;full=1
1st at bat – 4 pitches, double to left
2nd at bat – 6 pitches, Base on balls
3rd at bat – 5 pitches, double to deep center
4th at bat – 5 pitches, K
5th at bat – 1 pitch, ground out to first
AVG of pitches seen: 4.2 per at bat (21/5)
June 2nd (Yanks lose 11-6 to Boston)
Abreu batted 1st, so he was not in front of A-Rod
BTW – Abreu was 4-2 that day, with 1BB (A-Rod was 2-0 with 2 BB).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....038;full=1
1st at bat – 4 pitches, line out to left
2nd at bat – 2 pitches, single to center
3rd at bat – 3 pitches, single to left
4th at bat – 6 pitches, K
5th at bat – 6 pitches, BB
AVG of pitches seen: 4.6 per at bat (23/5)
June 3rd (Yanks win 6-5 against Boston)
Abreu batted 3rd, so A-Rod was on the on-deck circle for each of Abreu’s ABs.
BTW – Abreu was 4-2 with 1 BB that day (A-Rod was 5-2).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....038;full=1
1st at bat – 3 pitches – flyout to left (NOTE: Abreu was the 3rd out of that inning. A-Rod opened the next inning with a pop-up to 2B).
2nd at bat – 5 pitches – double to deep left (NOTE: next A-Rod struck out on 5 pitches)
3rd at bat – 5 pitches, BB (Note: next A-Rod got on base with an infield single on 2 pitches)
4th at bat – 5 pitches, single to left (Note: Boston changed pitchers after Abreu singled, A-Rod popped out on 6 pitches)
5th at bat – 6 pitches, K (off of Papelbon) (NOTE: next A-Rod hit a HR off of Papelbon on the 3rd pitch).
AVG of pitches seen: 4.8 per at bat (24/5)
June 4rd (Yanks lose 6-4 against the ChiSox)
Abreu batted 3rd, so A-Rod was on the on-deck circle for each of Abreu’s ABs.
BTW – Abreu was 2-1 with 2 BB that day (A-Rod was 4-1).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....038;full=1
1st at bat – 6 pitches – double to center (NOTE: A-ROD struck out on 6 pitches)
2nd at bat – 6 pitches – BB (NOTE: A-Rod struck out on 4 pitches)
3rd at bat – 5 pitches, ground out to 2nd (NOTE: A-Rod proceeded to hit a 2B to deep left on 2 pitches)
4th at bat – 5 pitches, BB (NOTE: A-Rod grounded out to 2B).
AVG of pitches seen per at bat: 5.5 per at bat (22/4).
June 5th (Yanks win 7-3 against ChiSox)
Abreu batted 3rd, so A-Rod was on the on-deck circle for each of Abreu’s ABs.
BTW – Abreu was 4-2 with 1 BB that day (A-Rod was 5-3).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....038;full=1
1st at bat – 5 pitches, BB (Note: A-Rod flied out to center on 2 pitches)
2nd at bat – 6 pitches, single to left (Note: A-Rod ground into a DP on the first pitch)
3rd at bat – 1 pitch, single to right (Note: A-Rod hit a 2B to deep center on 6 pitches)
4th at bat – 3 pitches, fielders choice to pitcher (Note: A-Rod singled to right on 4 pitches)
5th at bat – 5 pitches, ground out to 2B (Note: A-Rod homered to left on 5 pitches)
AVG of pitches seen per at bat: 4 per at bat (20/5).
June 6th (Yanks win 5-1 vs. ChiSox)
Abreu batted 3rd, so A-Rod was on the on-deck circle for each of Abreu’s ABs.
BTW – Abreu was 3-1 with 1 BB that day (A-Rod was 4-2).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....038;full=1
1st at bat – 5 pitches, K (Note: A-Rod also struck out on 5 pitches)
2nd at bat – 5 pitches, BB (Note: A-Rod singled on 2 pitches)
3rd at bat – 6 pitches, K (Note: A-Rod also struck out on 5 pitches)
4th at bat – 6 pitches, HR (Note: A-Rod singled on 2 pitches)
AVG of pitches seen per at bat: 5.5 per at bat (22/4).
June 7th (Yanks win 10-3 vs. ChiSox)
Abreu batted 3rd, so A-Rod was on the on-deck circle for each of Abreu’s ABs.
BTW – Abreu was 4-2 with 1 BB that day (A-Rod was 4-2, with 1 BB).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
1st at bat – 4 pitches, fly out to left (If I’m reading the ESPN data correctly, if not, 3 pitches –Abreu was the 3rd out of that inning. A-Rod opened up the next inning and was safe on an error after 3 pitches).
2nd at bat – 3 pitches, single to left (Note: A-rod singled to left on 4 pitches)
3rd at bat – 7 pitches, ground out to first (Note: A-Rod ground out to 3rd on 1 pitch)
4th at bat – 5 pitches, double to deep right (Note: A-Rod was next IBB).
5th at bat – 5 pitches, BB (Note: A-Rod next hit a HR on 2 pitches).
AVG of pitches seen per at bat: 4.8 per at bat (24/5). NOTE: If Abreu’s first turn was 3 pitches, then it was 4.6 (23/5).
June 8th (Yanks win 5-4 vs. Pirates)
Abreu batted 3rd, so A-Rod was on the on-deck circle for each of Abreu’s ABs.
BTW – Abreu was 5-1 that day (A-Rod was 4-0).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....038;full=1
1st at bat – 3 pitches, fly out to left (Note: A-Rod struck out on 6 pitches)
2nd at bat – 4 pitches, fly out to SS (Note: Abreu was the last out of that inning. A-Rod opened up the next inning with a ground out to pitcher after 4 pitches).
3rd at bat – 2 pitches, line out to let (Note: Abreu was the last out of that inning. A-Rod opened up the next inning with a fly out to left on 6 pitches)
4th at bat – 5 pitches, single to right (Note: A-Rod was then HBP by a new pitcher, Salomon Torres).
5th at bat – 5 pitches, K (Note: A-Rod flew out to right on 3 pitches)
AVG of pitches seen per at bat: 3.8 per at bat (19/5).
June 9th (Yanks win 9-3 vs. Pirates)
Abreu batted 3rd, so A-Rod was on the on-deck circle for each of Abreu’s ABs.
BTW – Abreu was 4-2, with 1 BB that day (A-Rod was 1-0, with 2 BB).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....038;full=1
1st at bat – 1 pitch, ground out to pitcher (Note: A-Rod ground out to 3rd on 4 pitches)
2nd at bat – 4 pitches, ground out to 2B (Note: A-Rod walked on 6 pitches)
3rd at bat – 3 pitches, single to left (Note: A-Rod walked on 5 pitches)
4th at bat – 2 pitches, single to right (Note: A-Rod hit a sac fly on his first pitch)
5th at bat – 8 pitches, BB (Note: A-Rod was HBP on 2 pitches)
AVG of pitches seen: 3.6 per at bat (18/5)
June 10th (Yanks win 13-6 vs. Pirates)
Abreu batted 3rd, so A-Rod was on the on-deck circle for each of Abreu’s ABs.
BTW – Abreu was 4-4, with 1 BB that day (A-Rod was 3-2, with 2 BB).
Abreu’s at bats show he saw these many pitches:
1st at bat – 9 pitches, triple to deep center (Note: A-Rod walked on 8 pitches)
2nd at bat – 7 pitches, single to left (Note: A-Rod walked on 6 pitches)
3rd at bat – 5 pitches, single to right center (Note: The Pirates changed pitchers after Abreu’s AB. A-Rod HRed on the 3rd pitch from J Sharpless)
4th at bat – 8 pitches, BB (Note: A-Rod HRed on the first pitch he saw)
5th at bat – 6 pitches, 2B to deep left center (Note: A-Rod flied out right)
AVG of pitches seen: 7 per AB (35/5)
COMMENTS: 1. Abreu, who is clearly on a tear, has been seeing a LOT of pitches (4.2, 4.6, 4.8, 5.5., 4, 5.5., 4.8, 3.8., 3.6, 7), mostly with A-Rod behind him;
2. While I wouldn’t go as far as saying that A-Rod has directly benefited from long at bats by Abreu (he might have on his 5th at bat of June 3rd, his 3rd at bat on June 4th, his 5th at bat on June 5th, his 2nd and 4th at on June 6th, his 5th at bat on June 7th, and particularly in the 1st, 2nd and 4th at bat of June 10th), he certainly IS getting to see a lot of pitches in the last 8 games, with Abreu ahead of him.
3. Seeing as how A-Rod CLEARLY benefited from long Abreu at bats on June 10th, his statement that he was getting to see more pitches is both true in the last 8 games and PARTICULARLY TRUE on June 10th.
Well, Abreu hitting sure doesn’t hurt A-Rod, and apparently A-ROD himself thinks that Abreu helps him, so it’s kind of a mind over matter thing, anyway, isn’t it? Who really cares, as long as it continues?
The Yankee lineup is very symbionic. That is, they feed off each other. It looks like it’s just Abreu and A-Rod, but really, it’s up and down the lineup. The only guys who seem really immune to it are Jeter and Posada. The Yankees’ game is patience at the plate, forcing the opposing pitching to throw a lot of pitches. Between walks and hits, they end up scoring their runs. Throw in a HR, and they put the game away. BUT if one little thing is off, it affects the entire lineup. Damon and Abreu are key. Very key. When they are clicking, being patient, getting on base, either by hit or walk, they Yankees are unstoppable. But if Damon and Abreu are slumping, the other guys press, thinking they have to make up for those guys. And it’s a vicious cycle.
I don’t know what the Yankees will do if Giambi gets healthy this season. What they have right now is working very, very well. I love Melky in CF. I love that someone (probably Jeter) said something to him when he came in on a ball and caught it one day after messing up a similar play, and Melky grinned. I love his arm. Damon really can’t play out there anymore. I appreciate that he plays hurt and gives 110% of the 75% he has left in him, but it’s not a good thing. With Melky out there, opposing teams are starting to think twice about taking the extra base. As an everyday player, Melky is a better hitter. The 4th outfielder “experiment” did not work. I’ve never played, so I don’t know, but the preparation must be so different, the pressure to perform so different, when you’re not playing everyday. It takes a very special person — a Miguel Cairo – to be able to do this successfully. Melky needs to play everyday to be effective offensively. I think he’s exciting enough of a player, has enough energy, to give him the chance to be THE centerfielder for the NY Yankees.
I think the Yankees will work out a deal with A-Rod. I think he will be the exception to the long-term contract rule. I’m not sure what they’ll do about Abreu. I’m guessing that one’s a “play-it-by-ear” kind of thing — unless Abreu keeps on being the player they got last year.
Relief pitching is the biggest question for the Yankees. The starting staff will be fine. They are for the first time this year, set for 4 pitchers. The rhythm will develop. Clippard will be fine and they will not have to rush Hughes back. Proctor is the guy who needs to step up and throw strikes. He will be the 8th inning guy if he does. If they can get something better for Farnsworth, I think they will. It does not good to throw 95 mph if you can’t locate. It’s just laughable. Bruney will be okay. I really think Vizcaino will be fine. The entire beginning of this season messed up the bullpen, but if the offense can keep it up, it will give Torre the opportunity to work out the best combination of relief pitchers.
“And Roger Clemens will pound the table!”
If Arod opts out – it’s all moot anyway.
A-Rod is going to stay in NY. There is no better place to play, the NY Post notwithstanding. The lows can be pretty low (the booing of last season). But the highs more than make up for it. There is nowhere where he will get the attention that NY affords him, postive and also negative. And the money won’t be too bad, either.
Wrong Jake. You don’t understand what you are talking about.
You only get short term contracts with free agents who are either over 32 or getting their second bite of the free agent apple.
In other words, Non-Type A free agents.
Type A free agents aren’t signing 2-3 year contracts. ThE Yankees have always gone aggressively after Type A FA’s since 2001. Guys like, Pavano, Giambi, Mussina.
You can’t short those players years because other clubs will offer more years/money. Barry Zito last year as an example.
The only way you gain flexibility is develop your own pitching. If 3-4 of your starters and your closer can be homegrown (for example), you save money, which can be applied to the right Type A free agents down the line.
Its why Cashman is trying to gain payroll flexibility. Payroll does matter and the facts bear it out.
Look at it another way…..With Chamberlain and Kennedy now in AA, if they continue to develop at this rate. its not impossible to see the following rotation (with their ages) in 2009:
Wang (28)
Hughes (22)
Chamberlain (23)
Kennedy (24)
Johan Santana (I think he will be 31 in 2009). He is a FA after 2008.
By having three younger guys, and lower salaried guys, in the rotation, along with Wang in only his second arbitration year, the Yankees can be aggressive in going after Santana.
If they waste money on Zambrano or some other FA, because they are unable to develop their own pitching, that’s when you get into trouble.
i agree with you 100% SJ … i’m tired of this cashman bashing … the man knows what hes doing, i can’t remember a time when the yankees farm system is this loaded with talent. (hes done this in just a few years) people dont realize that signings and trades like johnson, sheffield, giambi were all steinbrenners doing … cash took the reins in 05 and we’ve seen the payroll go down a little without hurting the team … not to mention one of the best farm systems in all of baseball … by filling in your staff and roster with home grown players you can lower the payroll and then spend alot of money on a type A free agent (santana teixera ichiro)
SJ44 —
You are 100% correct, in my opinion. Pitching is the key – both on the field and financially. If the Yankees continue to trade for, draft and develop their pitchers, that frees up money for the other “loose parts,” but it also keeps them out of the luxury tax range. It can be a self-perpetuating strategy. Part is scouting, part is development, and part is luck, but it’s the right track.
The Yankees are finally using their financial muscle intelligently. They are investing again in the farm system and clearing the salary decks at the ML level to give the team more options.
They will still aggressively go after the RIGHT Type A Free Agents. They weren’t going to pay Barry Zito 128 million dollars because he isn’t that type of pitcher. Even though they could have used him this season. That’s smart, IMO.
Salary matters because, if it didn’t, they wouldn’t have traded Gary Sheffield and Randy Johnson because it weakens them THIS year.
However, by clearing the decks, salary-wise, it gives them numerous options now and in the future.
One option is, paying above the slot for draft choices. They have done it the last two years and will do it again t his year. That’s how you get a Top Three talent, like Brackman, at #30.
They also drafted a kid, Chris Carpenter from Kent State, in the later rounds and I bet they pay him above the slot and sign him. He is an elite arm who has been hurt. That would constitute another steal.
Watch when its time to sign undrafted Latin American prospects later in the summer. Like last year, they will also be aggressive in that area. That’s how kids like Jose Tabata and Francisco Cervelli were signed and they are proving to be prospects to watch.
With the parent club, its clear the Yankees are moving salary with an eye on Santana and/or a guy like Teixeira. Younger free agents, who have a lot more tread left on their tires.
I also believe they will do whatever they can to move Giambi or Damon in the off-season. Even if it means eating some money, especially in the case of Giambi. They need the salary space.
You could make a pretty strong argument that the Giambi deal in the worst deal the Yankees have made because of the players they couldn’t sign (like Beltran) and the on and off field distractions/weaknesses he brings to the table.
He’s a great guy. However, that contract, and the fact that he can no longer play first base, KILLS this team. Physically, he can’t play up to the numbers.
Cashman knows what he is doing. The key, as in any business plan in which you change patterns, he has to be given the opportunity to see the entire plan through.
If he is given that time, I believe time will show his decisionmaking in some key areas will be proven correct.
Jake,
Nice having someone on this blog with an opinion that they can at least argue and justify.
That being said payroll matters to an extent. They couldn’t go out and get Beltran because of the luxary tax hit. That really hurt this current team b/c Bernie declined even greater during the 05 season and they were forced to offer Damon a four year deal when every knew he only had 2 years left in that terrible arm. If payroll didn’t matter they would have Beltran gliding through center instead of Damon hobbling through it.
SJ, I think they are trying to build a home grown staff for some of your reasons but also just b/c they are tired of taking risk with other teams pitchers. They are realizing it’s a crap shoot when I player finally reaches free agency and they want to get ahead of that curve and have pitchers that pitch while they are still young. The average pitcher hitting the market is over 27 and has a ton of innings on their arm. Cashman is trying to limit the pitchers innings in the minors while getting them work so that they can be successful for those 4-5 years before they hit free agency and then he has an inside track on resigning them.
Cashman has his plan in place and it is going to work. I just hope he gets the time to follow it through. The thing that is going to happen is Cashman is going to get fired, the new guy will want to make a splash, trade away the farm and get a team that is competitive for 2 years. Instead of 10 years like would happen if Cashman stays in place for 3 more years. It is going to take 3 years of patience Yankee fans.
SJ,
I didn’t read what you wrote before I typed but good idea.
Jake was right to an extent. The one or two year deals they are offering are to be competitive at the moment. Good players are taking them instead of trying to get more out of the market such as Moose, Pettitte, and Clemens b/c they want to win. Paying them a little extra doesn’t really matter in the scheme of things b/c its not hurting flexibility. They will probably not hesitate to pay Mo or Posada a little extra over 2 years rather than pay them over 3 or 4 years. The team doesn’t mind paying above market value but they don’t want to be paying that beyond the point where servicibility ends.
Nick,
They are good bridge deals to make up for the utter lack of concern for the farm system from 2001-2004.
Its also worth noting these deals were able to be made in large part because of Joe Torre still being the manager of the team.
There is no way Mussina, Clemens and Pettitte are here if not for Torre still being the manager.
Its fortunate for Cashman he’s been able to patch it together. However, they can’t make the same mistake again (ignoring the farm system) and expect to find stop gap solutions.
That’s the fear I have if they panic after this season and go back to the “spending stupid” ways, as I call them.
SMALL SAMPLE SIZE ALERT!!! Those “stats” are basically meaningless.
i always forget about dellin betances when the subject of what the future rotation will look like. this kid is a beast his last year of high school he had a .17 ERA 100 K’s in 41 and 2/3 innings … he’ll be in short season ball this year for the first time. he throws a knee buckling curve and a mid to high 90′s fastball. hes going to be something special.
hughes
wang
chamberlain
kennedy
betances
i can’t wait for the future !
Projecting 19 yr old pitchers with one yr of minor league ball on their resume?
Impossible.
If we get 2 pitchers from this group to be #2 type starters we’re way ahead of the game.
Its amazing the Yankees have been so good for so long with the farm system as barren as it was.
Utterly amazing they have won so much and got nothing from their system.
That seems to be changing. Thank God.
With the Yanks money and resources they should dominate the draft and the Latin American free agent market. They should be stocking their system with top tier talent.
No question about it. Its really amazing they survived 2005, the low point, in terms of the lack of talent in the farm system and injuries, yet managed to still win the division.
Who can forget those “memorable” Sean Henn, Tim Redding, and Darrel May starts in 2005?
If Jeff Karstans didn’t get hurt this year, they would have had the perfect long man/swing guy this team has lacked since the Mendoza days.
His injury really created a domino effect throughout the system this year. Had he not gotten hurt coming out of the spring, and later in the season, I believe they would have 5-6 more wins right now. His loss really hurt them because he is a guy who can fill a couple of roles, was pitching GREAT coming out of ST, and has the ability to keep the team in games.
The good news is, barring any injuries, this is the last year they will have to juggle the farm system.
There are so many quality arms throughout the system now, some on the fast track (Kennedy and Chamberlain), if they don’t do anything stupid, one could argue its the deepest farm system in baseball, pitching-wise, beginning next season.
I see the Yankees not picking up Abreu’s option, however I think they will do something similar to what they did with Moose and still sign him as a FA. The Yanks would be nuts to let A-Rod opt out, they’ve got to sign him to an extension. One question, if they sign him to an extension, does Texas still pick up their part of his salary for the next 3 years?
YanksFan,
Yeah, an extension means they add on to the contract so the initial contract still stand they basically are agreeing to a contract that will kick in after the current one.
Abreu is really only a 14M guy next year 16M-2M(buyout) so he is not that expensive. I don’t know about picking it up, he has a lot of year left to justify it. I’m not sold on Hunter, Ichiro, or Jones either though so I guess it is wait and see
I complete agree with Jake on the flexibility for the future over an extra couple million for the short term argument. The important thing to realize is would you rather have Abreu next year FOR CERTAIN at 16 million or would you rather run the risk of having to find another free agent RF who can put up the approx numbers Abreu will put or worry about replacing from within the farm system. From what I can tell, there isn’t really anybody from our farm system who would be able to approximate Abreu’s #’s next year and I dont know who are FA’s next year besides Dye whom I dont think is nearly as good as Abreu. So our only options are either to get worse at RF next year, pick up Abreu’s option at 16M or gamble that he would be willing to take less and if he doesnt be screwed at RF. I think our best option is to not worry about whether he gets paid 16M or 10M and just make sure to have someone in RF who can hit like he is capable of.
SJ, you mentioned the Yank’s draftpick Chris Carpenter and how he could turn out great. From what I’ve read the guy has a great arm but has no idea where the ball is going once it leaves his hand. Hopefully nardi can straighten him out, cause his fastball touches 98.
IMO i dont see arod getting an extension … he will either not opt out and finish his three years on his contract or opt out and the yanks give him a new contract. if he gets a new contract then the rangers dont have to pay anything else.
Doreen I agree with you that Alex and Bobby are symbiotic on this lineup. Alex offers the protection while Bobby offers the patience allowing Alex to time the pitches better. Alex is a great hitter but like he says it’s only beneficial to have someone who sees that many pitches ahead of him. And Bobby sees great pitching because as Joe says A-Rod’s a dangerous hitter and the attitude of the league is do not let A-Rod beat you.
I really hope we resign Alex no matter what because we cant afford to lose the one power threat we have in our lineup.
WATCH OUT HERE COMES THE YANKEES , AND THEY’RE GETTING STRONGER!!!!!!
yeah Yankee fans! Watch out for them Yankees!