Today in The Journal News
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jul 10, 2007 
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The Yankees had a mediocre first half. Here’s a breakdown.
But Phil Hughes is on the comeback trail, having pitched for Class A Tampa last night.
Shea “The ship be sinking” Hillenbrand was released by the Angels yesterday. So no trade needed, he’s there for the taking if the Yanks want him. I don’t necessarily think he’s the best option for this team but I could live with him as a right-handed bat off the bench, he can also play both infield corner positions. The bench sorely needs an upgrade.
Who knows, Hillenbrand could be this year’s Shane Spencer/Glenallen Hill.
Peter:
Is there a tentative date for Hugh’s return to the Bronx? How many rehab starts are they thinking about? Also, is there a chance that he would NOT be called up, in lieu of someone else being called up… perhaps from Trenton? Thanks.
I anticipate Hughes will be back pitching for the major league Yankees on July 26th in Kansas City. That would allow starts in double A and Triple A. However, the Yankees will need a 6th starter on July 21st due to a doubleheader with Tampa, but that would a bit of a rush to get him here.
Pete, the David Hasselhoff of baseball? Ouch. But I liked reading your description of the team.
Is it possible that the Yankees’ 8-23 record in 1-2 run games is evidence that Torre manages poorly in close-and-late situations?
I think it just means the players aren’t executing this year as they have in the past. It might be the injuries, it might be that extra year of life that starts to slow you down. With Torre at the helm, and I’m not talking his early years alone, the Yankees had been pretty darn good in close and late games. This year, too many negatives are coming together at the same time so far – too many worst-case scenarios.
I’m not delusional, but there is an entire second half of baseball left and stranger things have happened. I’m just hoping for a bit of “correction” on the negatives and some better baseball, perhaps make things more competitive. Then we’ll see what happens.
can someone please tell me about this arod story i keep hearin about on espn radio im confused
Pete, Phil Hughes turned 21 on June 24th.
I think the Yankees will surprise us and be sellers if they are not within something like 7 games of the wild card by July 31. It makes no sense to trade young pitchers (unless we can get players useful for more than this year without giving up any of our top 5 prospects) to attempt to rescue a team that has such a dim hope of making the postseason. Our best chance to reload might be in taking advantage of the needs of teams closer to contention this year. Cashman might be on the hunt for some position-playing prospects in exchange for Yankee veterans (the latter of whom will involve partial contract payments).
I know, the Yankees haven’t been out of a playoff race since 1992, so it’s hard to imagine them becoming sellers in late July. But this year, it might make sense. What I’d hate to see is us making a Kazmir-like trade just to fall short of the playoffs.
Was checking out some minor league stats this morning…Noticed that the trio of “prospects” we got from the D-Backs for Randy isn’t exactly lighting things up down on the farm. Steven Jackson is pitching to the tune of a 6.06 ERA; whereas Russ Ohlendorf has a 5.19 ERA and Alberto Gonzalez is hitting a meager .220. I realize a lot of people defend Cashman on this one simply because he got rid of Johnson. However, I think you have to seriously question whether Cashman got the best deal available to him when he pulled the trigger on this trade. Given that the Padres were also interested in obtaining Johnson at the time (and possibly other teams as well), I honestly think he could have done better. For example, I would have taken Linebrink from the Padres over the trio from the D-Backs, hands down. Just my two cents…
Mike & Mike
‘At what point do you think the Yankees are going to try and initiate some sort of discussion, with Rodriguez, to extend his contract and not give him a chance to opt out at the end of the year?’
Buster Olney
‘I wouldn’t be surprised if they brought it up at the end of the year, but I don’t think they have much hope internally that anything like thats going to happen. Because heres the deal: we know his agent, Scott Boras, loves to create leverage in his negotiations & theres no doubt the way that the mechanics need to work for that to happen, Alex Rodriguez is not going to agree to an extension with the Yankees. Hes going to opt out of that contract. Unless he just decides, look I just love playing for the Yankees so much I am just going to stick with my 3 years, 81 million dollars. But, keep in mind, to do that he would have to walk away from guaranteed money, anywhere between 120-160 million dollars above the 81 million dollars. We know Scott Boras clients typically don’t do that.’
He then discusses that the Giants and Angels are going to go hard for ARod.
‘We talked to Yankees executives, privately they tell you, look it probably doesn’t look to good for us resigning this guy, it just doesn’t seem to be in the cards the way this is playing out.’
1. for a 210 million dollar payroll the yanks had a terrible first half
2. a-rod is gone
3. pitching is where its at . phil of the future .
Just watched Bronx is Burning. Thanks to Dr. Acula for the webcast link. It was entertaining, but the most intersting part was the backstory between Jackson and Bob Ward.
Heard a joke on t.v. last night. “His ears are so big, it’s like a buffet for Mike Tyson.” So I cracked up when I saw Martin’s ears.
Hope the team can come back from the break focused, they did last year. It just seems like whenever this team gets on a roll, the off day kills the momementum.
I think a lot of us fans were not only disappointed in the losses, but in how the team beat themselves in most of them. They look like they’re in a good place now and if they play like they did over the weekend that’s all you can ask for.
If Alex opts out he’s gone. No way will the Yankee re-sign him after he cost them 30 million.
Wil Nieves needs more playing time.
I am sorry but whoever says that there is no chance AROD returns is just wrong. He is having the best season of his career in New York, and even if he is offered slightly less money by the Yanks, the amount he can make from endorsements in the New York market will trump anything anyone else can offer.
And if the Yankees don’t make the playoffs this year his four years with the Yankees will be looked at as a complete failure due to a total of one playoff series win.
And with how much money AROD already has, I am sure he cares about winning now much more than he did at any other point in his career, and despite the Yankees play this year, no team has a better chance to win the World Series year in and year out than the Yankees.
Toronto released Victor Zambrano yesterday after an apparently premature or unsuccessful comeback from his second Tommy John surgery.
Might the pitching obsessed Yankees check out his medicals and/or have him examined to see if there is any point in acquiring him cheap (Sportsline lists him at $500K this year), let him rehab some more and see what he’s like next year?
Please stop
the whether A-Rod
will opt out
discussion.
Come up
with something more original
to waste your time on.
2015 Yankees are going to suck
“And with how much money AROD already has, I am sure he cares about winning now much more than he did at any other point in his career, and despite the Yankees play this year, no team has a better chance to win the World Series year in and year out than the Yankees.”
i think the Angels have an equal chance of winning the WS over the next 3-5 years.
“the amount he can make from endorsements in the New York market will trump anything anyone else can offer”
The market that you are in usually has no direct corelation with the amount of money you make in endorsements. If you are a star/MVP player like ARod you don’t need the big market to increase your endorsements. Just look at Lebron for an example out of Cleveland. Large market teams can have an affect if they make the player bigger, but I feel as though this is not the case with ARod and NY, maybe even the exact opposite since he is not the face of NY (Jeter, Mo, Posada, even Pettitte and Clemens now)
‘And if the Yankees don’t make the playoffs this year his four years with the Yankees will be looked at as a complete failure due to a total of one playoff series win.’
This is very true. But when looking back at his numbers in New York it will be very hard for any person to blame ARod for not making the playoffs, or winning the World Series.
‘and despite the Yankees play this year, no team has a better chance to win the World Series year in and year out than the Yankees.’
I think if he decided to go to the Angels, Mets, Cubs, and/or Red Sox he would have just as good of a chance to win as with the Yankees.
The all star game is going to be very strange without Mo there
I think the Yankees will make a hard run at A-Rod just before the option comes up. There is the huge advantage of taking advantage of Ranger Bucks (to the tune of $30M) and the fact that the opportunity to establish himself as a real anchor of a totally remade Yankee team opening a new stadium.
This team is going to be unrecognizable in 2 years with the new pitching coming up, a remade outfield, no Giambi albatross, etc. To have a real identity the Yankees would definitely benefit from the left side of the outfield filling the luxury boxes and selling the 4 million tickets they have sold during A-Rod’s years.
To pass Barry Bonds and spend the final half of his career as a Yankee would put A-Rod on the Mount Rushmore of greats. I’m not sure the Halos, ChiSox, or other squads offer that same opportunity. (Clearly I’m biased though).
Finally, this could be Steinbrenner’s final coup as an owner. A gargantuan offer securing the best player of his generation would be historic. Let’s hope we get it done!!!
Jennifer,
I know what you mean. Too bad there’s a very good chance that Papelbon won’t be batting. I think that some of the Yankees would pay handsomely to have the NL all-stars throw at Pap for showing up players on the mound.
Wasn’t it nice when Alex was just playing ball and there was zero talk about his contract? I wonder if Alex wearing a suit on the field last night stirred the slumbering scribes and talking heads.
As for those who think that the Yankees have a run over the next few years, haven’t you heard? Detroit is the new dynasty…blah blah blah…Beckett, Dice-K, Okajima, and Buckholz will anchor Boston for the next decade…blah blah blah…
‘This is very true. But when looking back at his numbers in New York it will be very hard for any person to blame ARod for not making the playoffs, or winning the World Series.’
Guess we have to ignore all the bad press he received for disappearing at the plate in previous playoff appearances, particularly when he had way better numbers during the regular season.
So yeah, I can put some blame there just like I can blame Clemens for showing up out of shape when he had months to workout and should have been in top physical condition when he reported.
there’s no doubt in my mind that the angels , red sox and tigers all have a huge advantage over the yanks over the next few years with their core of young players especialy with their youthful pitching . remeber when the yanks won ? nice core of young players complimented by quality veterans ? i think we can all see that cashman realizes these things and is trying to do something about it . here’s the problem , the yanks are trying to win now while building a depleted farm system . the two normally cant happen at the same time . so i say sell what they can during the trade-deadline and play the young guys as much as they can .
A quote from Papelbon re: number of Sox at the game
“We still take up half the room,� Papelbon said. LEE JENKINS
I respect his arm, but that’s just about it.
“Guess we have to ignore all the bad press he received for disappearing at the plate in previous playoff appearances, particularly when he had way better numbers during the regular season.
So yeah, I can put some blame there…”
You, my friend, are why ARod is going to opt out
“So yeah, I can put some blame there just like I can blame Clemens for showing up out of shape when he had months to workout and should have been in top physical condition when he reported.”
???
where is this coming from?
Is it really true that for the Yankees to win a Wild Card-worthy 95 games this year, they need to play at a 69% clip for the rest of the year?
Does that really mean no more than 24 more losses?
Put me in the camp of thinking there is a very good chance they are sellers at the deadline for various reasons.
First, they have some significant decisions to make re: Rivera, Posada and Arod. When Arod opts out (which he will), they are going to have to think long and hard about re-signing him.
Even if they want to, it takes two to make a deal. If he wants to move on, he will, regardless of the year he is having.
At the same time, Rivera and Posada need to be re-signed and I doubt you will be seeing hometown discounts for any of these players.
When an organization wastes the kind of money they have wasted on the likes of Igawa, Pavano and Giambi, plus giving Mussina 26 million more guaranteed dollars, I doubt guys like Posada, Rivera and Arod are going to look to “take it easy” on the Yankees.
There is another reason why they may be sellers at the deadline that nobody talks about. They are going to have some issues with the 40 man roster when all these guys come off the DL and with some of the younger players in the off-season.
If they don’t begin to trim some guys, they are going to expose some awfully good prospects in the Rule 5 draft in the off-season. I don’t think they want to do that, especially with the rebuilding job that awaits, this off-season.
Its why it wouldn’t surprise me to see Cashman move guys like Abreu and Farnsworth, perhaps even Vizcaino or Bruney, at the deadline for lower level prospects. This way, he gives himself some cover on the 40 man roster in the off-season.
YankSox,
You can absolutely make more money in a bigger market. Lebron James for example has a provision in his Nike contract that earns him much more money if he decides to play for the Knicks or Lakers so your point is completely wrong.
“Guess we have to ignore all the bad press he received for disappearing at the plate in previous playoff appearances, particularly when he had way better numbers during the regular season.”
i noticed that Yankee fans love to harp on A-Rod’s postseason shortcomings, but at the same time they also love to complain about Cashman trading Sheffield.
postseasons with Yankees:
A-Rod: .241/.368/.430 3 HR, 8 RBI
Sheffield: .259/.341/.383 2 HR, 10 RBI
you can’t have it both ways.
because Sheffield was WORSE in the playoffs than A-Rod.
Welcome back, SJ44.
Question: Very, very hypothetical. If the Yankees go on a tear in the next 3-4 weeks and Boston maintains, say 500 or just over, and the Yankees look like they have a shot at the division, what then?
Do they keep Abreu & Farnsworth, or still try to move them?
I think they should resist doing anything other than possibly getting a more serviceable back-up catcher even if they’re in the hunt, UNLESS Cashman can pull off some kind of coup for a Teixeira-type. And by coup, I mean a virtual something-for-nothing deal a la the Abreu deal last year. Because I still think you should not mortgage the future to salvage this year, EVEN IF they move into a contending position.
Hello Bloggers.. My #1 concern now is not the team but upper management! Can someone tell me why the heck Brian Cashman still has a job?? This team has no shot at Baltimore let alone Boston! This is the fault of idiots like Steinbrenner and Cashman. Why the heck did they bring in Clemmens?? He is older then dirt and could care less about winning let alone the Yankees. The team needs a big yard sale! Get rid of jokers like Jeter and Arod for some young talent and pitching! It could be that easy but these morons are too blind to see it!
Is big Stein still alive? If so, the Yankees won’t be sellers.
“There is another reason why they may be sellers at the deadline that nobody talks about. They are going to have some issues with the 40 man roster when all these guys come off the DL and with some of the younger players in the off-season.”
this is a good point.
but they could probably just DFA Mientkiewicz if they felt the season was over. i think they will also trade a reliever. not sure which one or where, but there are too many relievers on the team right now. someone has to go.
“The team needs a big yard sale! Get rid of jokers like Jeter and Arod for some young talent and pitching!”
ok, i thought this was a serious poster up to here.
beat it, troll.
Johnny Mac,
Thats ignorant. Steinbrenner and Cashman must be idiots because they have only won 4 world series. That may be the reason Cashman still has a job if you are wondering.
And “getting rid of jokers like Arod and Jeter” does not even merit any response.
Get rid of Jeter andA-rod? And you’re calling them jokers?
Re: the Arod opting out thing. Who know what he’s going to do. Everyone makes the point of Boras going for the money, and how that will make Arod opt out to test the market. I don’t buy the whole ‘Arod has more than enough money’ argument. If any of us are offered a substatial raise with more job security, possibly in a friendlier work enviroment, we’d all jump at it. But the fact of the matter is, if he opts out, he’s either taking the yankees out of the mix, which, as we all know, Boras won’t want to do, if only for bidding up the other suitors, or giving up an additional $30 mil if he ends up going back to the Yankees. The way I read it is if he opts out, he’s not coming back to the Yanks. Also, without the Yanks in the market, I don’t think he makes as much as he could if, say, he played out his contract, doesn’t sign an extention, then bargains fresh. That would keep the Yankees in the running, which increases offers all around.
I’d imagine Arod signs an extention or plays out the rest of this contract. Let’s face it, who’s going to offer more money on their own than the Yankees best offer + $30 mill?
‘Lebron James for example has a provision in his Nike contract that earns him much more money if he decides to play for the Knicks or Lakers so your point is completely wrong.’
Show me details where it says this.
Doreen,
Thanks. Summer vacation to the Stadium to see the Twins and Angels series. Aside from the weather (which was broiling!), good times all around.
Obviously, if they make a run things can change.
However, for that to happen, we are going to have to see guys like Damon, Cano, Abreu, Mussina, Farnsworth and Pettitte (to name a few) return to last year’s form. Not going to be easy, IMO. That’s why I believe they have to be realistic about this season.
When you look at the team objectively, the question has to be, is there enough there to not only make a run, but to win this year?
From the Yankees perspective, they don’t have the luxury to think emotionally about that question. They have to be brutally honest with themselves and smart decisions will have to follow after an honest answer to that question.
I think the objective viewpoint is, no, they aren’t good enough to win this year. Couple that with the need to shed some players and salaries in an attempt to not only re-sign some crucial cogs but to be able to attract free agents, this just may be the year they are sellers.
They also have 40 man roster issues and need to find out if kids like Hughes and Ramirez and others are really guys they can count on for next year.
Its especially important to know about the younger players if they entertain any thoughts of re-signing Arod. For the numbers it will take to re-sign him, if they are successful, they are going to have to save in other areas. The pitching staff just may be that area.
Only way to know for sure is to pitch some of the younger guys in the second half and see what happens.
There has been some talk that Ohlendorf is being viewed as an option in the bullpen if they shed a few bodies. He is about a week away from returning from his injury.
Either way, I think its going to be a very interesting second half of the season. The Yankees have some TOUGH decisions to make in the coming weeks. Decisions that will go a long way into shaping next year’s team more than anything else.
Hopefully, they make the right decisions.
“The way I read it is if he opts out, he’s not coming back to the Yanks. ”
agreed. this is ONLY thing we do know.
we don’t know anything else.
YanksSox,
Read it and weap. And don’t argue with me anymore please because I know what I am talking about.
http://blogs.ohio.com/cavalier.....e_rec.html
A-Rod may opt out, sure. That is a possibility. But don’t count on the Yankees not re-signing him.
Most of you forget that Baseball is a business. Steinbrenner is interested in making a profit. Having unknown players on a team doesn’t make you money.
A-Rod makes a lot of money for the Yankees. They can afford to pay A-Rod more, being they were getting a bargain so far with Texas paying 9 million of his salary thus far.
A-Rod also understand legacy. Him finishing with the Yankees is better for his legacy. Also better for his endorsement deals. A-Rod isn’t dumb and knows there is life after he takes off the uniform. Finishing his career with the Yankees is beneficial to him.
A-Rod will remain a Yankee till he can’t play anymore.
Expect to see a 6 – 8 year extension on his contract.
Calling Jeter a joker is just plain dumb. Also Cashman wasent the GM for all 4 championships
One thing some of you are missing when using the endorsement angle…Derek Jeter.
Jeter makes more in endorsements than any player in baseball. He is also the face of the franchise. Some say (correctly so, IMO) he is the face of MLB today.
Even if Arod were to re-sign with the Yankees, he isn’t going to make more money in endorsements than Jeter. Especially with the tabloid issues of this season.
In fact, one could argue, going to Anaheim (which is the LA market) is better from an endorsement perspective for Arod.
Who is he competing with for endorsement dollars in LA? Kobe and that’s it. No NFL team, and no baseball players cutting into the endorsement end of things as he has with Jeter in NY.
Fact is, if its an issue of the best place for endorsement revenue, its LA, hands down for Arod.
I don’t think Boras will allow A Rod to take a Yankee extension if it means he loses his trump card, the opt out clauses over the next few years. Only reconcilitation for 2008 is for the Yankees to offer to pay Rod another $5M for 2008. This is on top of his current contract so Texas will still be on the hook.
I think that bridges the gap and A Rod comes back for one more year, but all bets are off for the 2008 year end option.
By the way, Tom Hicks has to be the worst negotiator in history. He gave Boras everything and heck even the Yankees took it to him getting Hicks to pay 1/3 of his salary to play for the Yankees.
how bad is kei igawa ? and i dont mean bad in a good way .
From Skinny Mike link
‘I have recently learned from different sources that the Nike contract does have a location bonus. It is not a huge one, one that doubles his deal or would make the difference between signing a max contract or signing for the mid-level exception.’
This is my exact point. Yes, you were right he would make slightly more money from an endorsement in New York, but not enough to sway his decision to stay in New York.
I am sorry I can’t argue with you anymore. Discussion over the fairy tale is going to end with ARod in New York and breaking 800 homers with the Yankees.
Its not hands down when u look at the season A Rod is having. If he can get the yankees into the playoffs and resign with the team I think he can compete with Jeter. A rod is a much better player and people not in NY also really love him. New York is the mecca for baseball
Sorry to disappoint you paddy. Guess you can complain to Pete about it and he can ban me if he chooses.
SJ44- It is great to see you back. I for one look forward to reading your posts..
I know that you have a pretty good knowledge of the minor leaguers and international guys. Pete posted a few days ago about the Yankees international signings – anything we should know about any of these guys? – or did we lose out on any big names?
Thanks in advance
How could one look forward to reading the depressing stuff SJ44 throws out there everyday? It makes one want to bash his ehad against a brick wall and thats only when you make it halfway thru the ten thousand word essay on why Nieves is a bad backup catcher.
First things first, baseball is business. Arod is going to opt-out and get the richest contract in baseball. Whether that’s with the Angel, Yankees, or whoever. If it’s with the Yankees, you know the Angels’ Moreno is going to throw a number out there that will make Steinbrenner choke on his turtleneck. Arod Inc. is going to get his money somewhere and I doubt he cares where. Like Tori Hunter said, “it’s not about the money, it’s about not being stupid.”
I love this notion that the Yanks will be sellers at the deadline. Who they going to trade? They have guys with full no trade clauses. They’re not going to move guys like Rivera and Posada. They’re not going to move Jeter or A Rod. Damon and Abreu are almost untradeable especially since they won’t eat any money. Matsui has a no trade clause.
This is a team that can make a run and even if they can’t pass teams they have to look to next year. I wonder what Boston fans said last yr when the team was down in the dumps. SHould they have traded Ortiz, Manny, Schilling and Varitek so they can get “prospects”?
Things can change in an instant in baseball. And I’d love to know any rebuilding team with prospects ever won anything besides the marlins in ’03. And look how they turned out after. You really think 4 million people are going to the Bronx if they take the payroll down to 70 mill and retool?
Its not the greatest of years for international prospects.
The Yankees signed (by far) the best position propsect in DeLeon. He’s only 16 but he has some serious talent. In DeLeon and Montero, the Yankees got the two best Latin American position prospects the past two seasons.
When I was watching Hughes pitch last night, the rumor around the ballpark was that they were very close to signing Carmen Angelini, their 10th round draft pick.
He was a first round talent who dropped because he told everybody he was sticking with his commitment to Rice.
If the Yankees can reel him in, that would be a real coup. He can really play.
On the promotion front, Juan Miranda (first base) is really hitting the cover off the ball since his promotion to Trenton. He may be a guy that ends up in the first base mix for next season. It will be interesting to follow his progress the rest of the season.
Its a good thing Paddy D is back, I loooove reading his posts. They are so informative and insightful.
I don’t understand why people complain about SJ44. Your ‘complaint’ posts are far worse to read and bring nothing to the blog.
Good point YanksSox, complaining messages are just annoying. I for one welcome SJ44 back to the big board.
SJ44 is the A Rod of the blog, love him or hate him, he is the best the board has to offer. I happen to know that Peter is working behind the scenes to lock in SJ’s services for another year.
Back to baseball, SJ44 if you would be so kind, could you give us an updated prospect ranking for pitchers and also for position players?
SJ44
Are you planning on opting out of your contract, or are you going to sign an extension for the next 3 years?
lol Jeff
and lets hope there’s some truth to the Angelini rumors.
“Damon and Abreu are almost untradeable especially since they won’t eat any money. ”
who said they won’t eat any money?
Abreu’s NTC is a bigger obstacle, but i think he would waive it for the right team. it’s obvious the Yankees won’t be picking up his option next year, so his best bet might be to go to the NL and try to restore his market value.
i don’t think the Yankees CAN trade Damon b/c i don’t see who would take him, but i think the Yankees would definitely eat some money in the right deal. that goes for guys like Farnsworth too.
but overall, you’re point it correct. the yankees won’t really be “sellers” b/c they have nothing to sell. the stuff they don’t need, no one wants. the stuff that people want, they need.
as far a ball players are concerned , it’s all about the money .
If hypothetically we were sellers, we can eliminate many players: guys with no trade clauses (A Rod, Jeter, Posada, Mo, Abreu, Mussina, Giambi), too expensive (Rocket) or too good to trade (Wang).
That leaves this short list of tradable parts sorted by value:
Melky, Proctor, Cano, Pettitte, Matsui, Farnsworth
It wouldn’t be fair for me to discuss my contractual status when you have guys such as Arod, Rivera, Posada and even Joe Torre unclear as to their future plans.
I am just going to play it out this season and see what happens.
I think there is a 3rd option with A-Rod that no one is discussing – a sign and trade. Let me play this out:
The Yanks offer A-Rod an extension immediately after the season. He turns it down and tell them he intends to opt-out. The Yankees then tell him to work out a deal with whomever he likes, then they will sign him to that deal as an extension on his current contract and trade him to that team for _____. This way his new team gets $30M in free money from Hicks in exchange for some prospects or whatever…and the Yanks get at least some compensation for losing A-Rod.
There’s $30M in free money on the table…I find it hard to believe that between Cashman and Boras they won’t find a way to take advantage of that. (This of course assumes that if A-Rod is traded Hicks owes the $$$ to A-Rod’s new team under his existing deal).
“If hypothetically we were sellers, we can eliminate many players: guys with no trade clauses (A Rod, Jeter, Posada, Mo, Abreu, Mussina, Giambi), too expensive (Rocket) or too good to trade (Wang). ”
you are automatically assuming that someone with a NTC would refuse to waive it though. we don’t know that.
what is holding Abreu here during a losing season? would Mussina accept a trade to the Phillies or Mets? he might. would Matsui accept a trade to the Dodgers? he might. i’m not saying they should trade him, but you never know.
someone might take Myers. they won’t give up much, but he could be decent in the NL, he’s not signed beyond next year, and he barely makes anything.
Damon does not have a NTC, but his trade value is pretty low right now.
i think someone would take Farnsworth, with the Yankees kicking in money of course.
yeah, i agree there’s not much to trade, but maybe Cashman will get creative and surprise us.
“The Yankees then tell him to work out a deal with whomever he likes, then they will sign him to that deal as an extension on his current contract and trade him to that team for _. This way his new team gets $30M in free money from Hicks in exchange for some prospects or whatever…and the Yanks get at least some compensation for losing A-Rod.”
this is called tampering and it is against the rules.
as long as a-rod is still under contract, he can’t talk to other teams.
it’s a nice idea, but it’s not realistic.
Or how about this one? The Yankees talk to AROD before the trade deadline when it is clear the Yankees wont make the playoffs. He tells them he wants to be a Yankee but also wants to play in the postseason and earn more money. They trade him to a contender for the remainder of the season for some great prospects, and then after the season he opts out and we resign him for whatever he wants. Then we still have AROD and just for letting another team borrow him when he would do us no good anyways, we also have a couple stud prospects.
As far as prospects, I hate ranking them because rankings can be so fluid.
Safe to say, the pitchers dominate my Top Five: Chamberlain, Kennedy, Horne, David Robertson and Jeff Marquez.
I don’t count the short season guys like Betances and McAllister because they have to show they can do it for a full season. However, both those kids have really high ceilings and are excellent prospects.
In the past month, the positive has been the emergence of some position players to the mix.
Juan Miranda and Colin Curtis were promoted to Trenton a few weeks ago. Curtis hasn’t really hit yet (although he did homer yesterday) but, his defense has been outstanding.
Since he has only been in the organization for a year, to be in AA right now is impressive.
Miranda has had an excellent season. He is a little more advanced (due to his experience on the Cuban National Team) as some other prospects. That’s why I could see him in the mix for the first base spot, or being a highly sought after prospect in trades (if the Yankees acquire an all star calibur first baseman) because he hits with power and has an excellent glove. I really like him as a prospect.
Two other guys, Austin Jackson (CF) and David Robertson (RHP) were promoted to Tampa recently.
Jackson has been tearing the cover off the ball since his promotion. He’s hitting over .400 and his showing his athleticism in CF. The residual effect of that is its making Tabata a better hitter, since Jackson is hitting ahead of Tabata and is on base during many of Tabata’s AB’s. He’s hitting over .400 since Jackson’s arrival and is up to .317 for the season. Jackson (20) and Tabata (19) are two of the youngest position players in the Florida State League this year. The fact both are playing well is a really good sign.
Robertson, IMO, is the best unknown pitcher in the Yankee system. The Trenton guys have gotten all the ink and rightfully so. However, Robertson has been unhittable all year. His ERA was under 1 in Charleston and he hasn’t allowed a run in 8 innings in Tampa.
He really should be in Trenton but, that staff is so loaded, he can’t get on the roster. But, he is going to be a guy that can help the Yankees. Perhaps as soon as next season, if things shake out a certain way in the Bronx.
He throws 92-94 and has probably the best slider in the organization. Nobody can seem to get the fat part of the bat on it.
He isn’t big (only about 5-11) and some folks tend to downgrade short pitchers. But, he can throw and he usually pitches two innings out of the bullpen in his appearances.
He’s one guy I really hope the Yankees hold onto and give a fair shot to make the team next year. He was the second best college closer in the country last year at Alabama and he can definitely make the jump sooner than most.
Of all the guys I have seen this year, he is, by far, the biggest surprise. I had no idea he was as good as he is.
Why would any team give up prospects for Arod knowing that they can get him for nothing in the off-season?
I don’t see any team, like the Angels for example, looking to trade for a guy who will most likely be on the open market in the off-season.
Arod has repeatedly said he won’t agree to a trade during the season.
The reality is, unless he changes his mind, the Yankees aren’t in a great position. They need him more than he needs them, he has the leverage and he’s going to use it.
There are really only two choices for the Yankees. Pay him when he opts out, or watch him go somewhere. There is no third option, IMO.
Skinny, I just don’t see that happenning. First of all the trade deadline is the end of July, I just don’t see the Yankees conceding by then. Secondly, what team would give up great prospects for a rental? I don’t see it.
Kevin, I like the way you are thinking re a sign and trade. Not sure of the legality, but Boras could find a way.
Does anyone think there is something that precludes the Yankees to signing A Rod to a 2nd contract for $5-$8M a year on top of the next 3 years contract? It keeps the Texas money coming and keeps A Rod in NY. I don’t think there is precedent in signing a player to a 2nd contract concurrent to the first, anyone know?
1. A team would consider giving up prospects for a rental because its not just any rental, its AROD, who could easily push any team over the top.
2. People keep saying that the Yankees are not in a great position but thats stupid. They have the guy under contract right now, he has said he wants to stay in New York, and the Yankees have more money to pay him than any other team. How does that leave them in a bad position?
SJ, thanks for the analysis. Glad to hear a few position prospects at OF and 1B are coming around, hopefully that catcher Cervelli is still looking good too.
We’ll have to keep an eye on Robertson, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see a guy like that go in a trade. Hopefully Cash continues to have control over keeping prospects. Cash is lucky that there is a leadership void with the Yankees right now, but he cares about protecting the future. We’re all lucky for that.
Skinny I agree with your 2nd point, the Yankees are in as good a position to have A Rod on the team as anyone, need-wise, money-wise and relationship-wise regardless of the Daily News BS article today.
Once the trade deadline passes, you can’t trade anybody unless they pass through waivers. No way Arod makes it through waivers.
Since he has said as recently as last week (when Joel Sherman asked him) he has no intentions of approving a trade during the season, talk of trading him is irrelevent. He isn’t going anywhere during the season.
The Yankees are in a tough spot with him for several reasons:
1. They already pay an obscene amount of luxury tax money to MLB. Paying Arod 25-30 million a year increases their payment and puts them in a rough spot. One could argue that, because of their luxury tax situation, the Yankees can’t pay him the most amount of money. In fact, I think if he stays in NY, it will be for less money than he would have gotten on the open market.
If they pay Arod 30 million a year, the Yankees pitching staff for 2008 could contain 6-7 rookies on it. How would Arod react to that when he can go to an established team in Anaheim? This is when being so far over the luxury tax threshold kills the Yankees. Lots of dead money on that payroll and its going to hurt them when it comes to the Arod negotiations, IMO.
2. Everybody says they “want to stay in….” wherever they are before becoming a FA. Nobody is going to say, “I want out”, especially in NY because it hurts their bargaining position. So, I wouldn’t take what he says as an indication of anything.
3. The Yankees have Posada and Rivera to sign, significant holes on the team to fill, and Jeter’s contract coming up soon. If they go for, say, 30 million a year for Arod, how does that impact the Posada and Rivera negotiations, the attempts to fill the holes on the team, and Jeter’s future situation? Its not an easy puzzle, that’s for sure.
It’s not tampering if the Yankees agree to it. And even if it was the only way tampering could be enforced would be if the Yankees complained about it…which they wouldn’t.
The real problem would be the timeline…a deal would have to be worked out before his opt-out date…or perhaps the Yanks could agree to extend that date.
SJ44,
Dont you think they Yankees would let Posada and/or Mariano (two players getting old) go before they let go of the best player in baseball history in the prime of his career. To think that they Yankees wont make resigning Arod their number 1 priority is just nonsense. Yes they have loyalty to Posada and Mariano but as you have said, this is a business and if you have to allocate money, it deserves to go to AROD.
If anything the question should be how they will bring some of the others back not how they will bring AROD back. And with so much money coming off the books after ’08 (Giambi, Moose, Damon (?), Pettite) I think Steinbrenner would suck it up for a year.
SJ44
I’m not quite sure that there will be as many decisions about the 40 man as you might think. As I see it there are only 3 people on the 60 day disabled list that might come back (Hughes, Karstens and Rasner). Both Mientkiewicz and Giambi are on the 15 day.
If you get to the end of July/early August and it looks like the team is going nowhere this year – they can clear spots on the 40 man just by DFA’ing Myers and Villone. On the other hand, if they are in the race and trying to add players, then I would think that the Colter Bean, TJ Beam and Chris Basak’s of the world might be looking for new teams.
On another topic, everytime I look at the 40 man roster something jumps out at me – this time it is that Britton and Bruney are 5 years younger than Scott Proctor (and Colter Bean, for that matter), and 2 years younger than Sean Henn. I don’t know that it is important, I just noticed it.
SJ44
Your points about the luxury tax are very well taken. However, yuu are ignoring the significant amounts of payroll the Yanks will shed by the start of the 2009 season.
Giambi – $20 mil
Moose – $11 mil
Pettite – $16 mil
Clemens – $17 mil
Abreu – $16 mil
Pavano – $10 mil
Farns – $ 5 mil
________
Total: $ 95 million off the books by 09.
Also, we already have Mo and Posada on the books…and they won’t be getting more than a marginal salary increase. Wang and Cano will be getting major raises, but not $95 mil in raises.
Even if we signed A-Rod to $30/mil a year we would still be way under $200 mil by 2009.
The real beauty of developing our own pitching will be realized shortly…we are going to have a TREMENDOUS amount of payroll flexibility starting around 2009-2010.
Well put Kevin M.
SJ44 has the tendency to be very pessimistic (especially about AROD coming back) when the situation really is pretty good for the Yanks. Ultimately, we are in control unless he simply wants to get out of NY. If he wants to stay in NY he is obviously ours, and if he just wants the most money, he is stil probably ours.
And by 2010 all the fools that have been bashing Cashman this year will be calling him a genius.
There is a reason why if you pay attention you are starting to see some quotes from other GM’s around baseball saying that what the Yankees are doing by investing heavily in their farm system the rest of baseball is in serious trouble. Except for the Red Sox…who are smartly adopting the identical strategy to the Yankees.
Our only problem is it will take a year or two for this to start working…as the Hughes, Chamberlain’s, Horne’s, Betance’s and Tabata’s finally make it to the show.
Lets not forget the new Yankee Stadium and what it will do to Luxary Tax in 2009.
Money isn’t a problem and won’t be a problem for awhile.
It’s all up to A-Rod if he wants to stay or not.
Not pessimistic, just realistic. I don’t think its a slam dunk Arod is back and I don’t think the Yankees are going to break the bank to keep him. If he does come back, it will be for less money than what’s on the open market. Its why everyone says (correctly so, IMO), if he opts out, he’s gone. I don’t see the Yankees keeping him in that situation.
IMO, their next huge plunge into free agency is going to be Johan Santana. That’s a guy they would give huge money to but, that’s not until after 2008.
They will probably make runs at Ichiro and/or Hunter this off-season. But, IMO, the BIG run will be at Santana after next season.
Adding Santana to a staff that could include Hughes, Wang, Chamberlain and Kennedy, could make them great for the next 6-8 years. I think they would go in that direction before they just give Arod a blank check. Just my opinion on the situation.
Arod? No doubt they want him but, that has to cut both ways. If the only way they can have him is to give him 200+ million dollars over the next 8 years, I don’t see them doing it.
If Arod wants to take less to stay, they will certainly look to make it happen. But, its going to take a compromise on Arod’s part and, when you think about it, why should he? If he has a chance to cash in again, he’s going to go for it.
If he just wants to go to the highest bidder, IMO, its not going to be the Yankees.
Yes, they have a lot of money coming off the books after 2008. But, they still have to field a 2008 team and if the Arod contract makes it difficult for them to do what they want to do in that regard, I don’t think they will re-sign him.
As great as he has been this year, they are still under .500 and not close to a playoff spot right now. Goes to show you it takes more than one great player having a great year to win. Perhaps the Yankees feel the money would be better served spread throughout the team rather than on one guy.
As far as Posada and Rivera are concerned, one could argue quite successfully they have been the most underpaid guys on the team the past several years, given their contributions to the team.
They have watched millions wasted on lesser players and this is their last chance to cash in bigtime. They aren’t granting hometown discounts to the Yankees and I don’t think the Yankees are going to walk away from them in order to sign Arod.
Bernie Williams, as much a “True Yankee” as anybody, didn’t offer any hometown discounts when he signed his last multi-year deal. I don’t see Posada and Rivera doing anything differently, and they shouldn’t, IMO.
The Yankees will let Arod walk before they turn away from Rivera and Posada. They can replace one player. They can’t replace two and I don’t see the Yankees turning away from Posada and Rivera.
Imagine that clubhouse, led by Jeter, if the Yankees turned Posada and Rivera away to sign Arod? Not gonna happen, IMO.
I normally agree with SJ44, but for him to say no team would give up prospects this season for Arod (if he waived his no trade–a big if, I know) as a rental is just not true. The Angels, The Dodgers, The Padres and possibly even a team like The Tigers would all pony up to trade for a 1/2 season of Arod in the hopes he gets them the World Series.
The major hurdle is him waiving his no trade and Cashman flying up the white flag (which he won’t do). Those two things most likely won’t happen so trading him is moot, but if they did happen, there would be a lot of buyers at the table looking to get a ring.
While I understand Boras takes everyone to free agency, I also think Boras knows he can put a gun to the Yankees head and he has his leverage to renegotiate by threatening to opt out.
If the Yanks come up with the extension dollars it is because of that leverage.
He’s basically a free agent with the Yankees having the right of first refusal/first chance to negotiate. If the Yankees decide Arod at 30 million is worth it to keep, I think they’ll make that offer.
Next years team is a mess without Arod, not to mention how depressing it would be to have the final year in the old stadium be a major bust. Imagine Arod coming into next years All Star game at the Stadium as a Giant or an Angel. Yes, he’d get booed out of the building, but it should and I think won’t, ever come to that.
With no offensive free agents out there to replace Arod (and don’t give me all the aging free agent CF’s, we shouldn’t touch any of them), you’d be going into a season with Matsui or Posada as your power threat. I don’t count on another Giambi comeback — the roids have destroyed his ligaments as they do and he can’t be relied on.
Arod has a ton of leverage without ever opting out. The Yankees have to extend him or run the risk of putting out the worst lineup they have put out in years filled with players who are currently failing for them this season.
If he wants to be a Yankee, he’ll be a Yankee and if the Yankees let him walk to another team and replace him with Mike Lowell or Pedro Feliz at 3b, it will be nothing short of a complete catastrophe. Yeah, the dynasty teams had Brosius at 3b, but they also had Bernie, O’Neil, Tino, Jeter, Knobby (to and extent), Posada in their prime, not to mention the clutch vets that filled out the rosters like Justice, Chilli Davis, Straw, Raines, etc…My point is those teams may not have had Griffey or Bonds, but they were stacked with talent. Letting Arod goes does nothing but hurt the Yankees and the Yankees must attempt to extend him before he opts out.
If they don’t, they are just plain stupid.
SJ 44 – you are absolutely kidding yourself if you think it’s a choice between signing A-Rod vs. Mo and Posada.
Here’s a guess at what your 2009 Yanks might look like:
Starting Pitching:
Wang ($10 mil), Hughes ($1 mil), Joba ($.5 mil), Horne (.5 mil) and Kennedy/Sanchez ($.5 mil).
Total: $12.5 mil
Relief Pitching:
Mo ($13 mil), Proctor ($2 mil), Bruney ($2 mil), Henn ($1 mil), Britton ($1 mil), Veteran Lefty ($5 mil), Whelan/Cox/Ramirez ($.5 mil).
Total: $ 15.5 mil
Infield:
1B Teixera – $15 mil
2b Cano – $8 mil
SS Jeter – $21 mil
3B ARod – $30 mil
C Posada – $13 mil
Total: $87 million (Or, of Miranda/Duncan can play first, drop $15 million in salary).
Outfield/DH:
RF Tabata – $.5 mil
CF Hunter – $15 mil
LF Matsui – $13 mil
DH Damon – $13 mil
Total: $31.5 mil
Bench: Melky ($2 mil), Basak (.5 mil), Backup C ($2 mil), Veteran Backup ($1 mil)
Total: $5.5 mil
Total team payroll: $ 152 million – and that’s assuming we sign Texeira and Hunter as FA’s!
With that payroll we could sign Santana for $30 mil and STILL only be at $182 million for the entire team.
So please don’t tell us we can’t afford A-Rod at $30 mil per….becuase we easily easily can.
Hopefully everyone can see the value in what Cash has been doing by growing his own pitching.
Sorry, the outfield payroll would be $41.5, my mistake, but the point remains.
SJ,
I am very excited about Action Jackson. If he continues his good play the Yanks could have quite a nice outfield in a few years with Jackson, Tabata, Cabrera and Gardener.
Reportedly Ichiro is close to signing a 5 year extension with the M’s…just thought I would that out there
I said this a while ago on this blog – we can easily fit A Rod into the payroll even along with Santana, Teix, Hunter, Mo, Posada, Jeter, etc. as Kevin showed.
Second – the notion that if A Rod opts out he is definitely gone is preposterous. We would have a glaring need for a 3b, he has now proven he can be successful here, we have the resources, and it is the last year in the stadium, with the All Star game, then new stadium in 09. Of course we would go all out to get him. If he simply wants out of NY then he will be gone – and we will get 2 compensation picks. But why would he want to leave a failure?
Also, our payroll would be high in 08 and the Luxury Tax would hurt – we could move Abreu and also we could backload a lot of A Rod’s new deal. Another thing I think is stupid is the notion that he would definitely opt out – if the Yanks offered him 8 years $240 mil ($30 mil from Hicks included) and he wanted to stay here, why wouldn’t he take that? The only incentive he would have to opt out at that point is if he is positive he would get more money – and I can’t see another team offering more than that. And opting out would be risky – the Yankees would lose $30 mil and might, at that point, say ’8 years $210 mil, take it or leave it.’
Third – the idea that teams won’t pony up prospects for A Rod is ridiculous. Even if they don’t resign him, he would give them a great shot to win the World Series and then they would get compensation picks when he signed with someone else. They would also presumably have the first crack at signing him, and if they went on to win the World Series, why wouldn’t A Rod stay? And they could use the $30 mil from Hicks in that case. That would be worth 2 top flight prospects to a contender.
The bigger obstacles are the fact that the Yankees won’t be out of it by the trade deadline and A Rod won’t agree to a trade.
And A Rod, as we all know, is obsessed with his image. Does he want to be remembered as a player who failed on the big stage, who couldn’t make it with the Yankees? I don’t think so.
anyone have, or feel like putting together, an overall ranking of the yankees top 20-30 prospects? that would be fun to see.