Take a deep breath, it’s no time to panic
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Aug 22, 2007 
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Two comments popped up a lot tonight. One running theme was that people want Mike Mussina executed at dawn, released, traded or forced to renounce his citizenship and live alone on a small island off the coast of Greenland.
OK. But before you push him off the boat, you might want to remember that he was 5-2 with a 3.86 ERA in eight starts from June 29 to Aug. 11. That was the exact time the Yankees got back in the race.
I didn’t ask him but I’m fairly certain Mussina didn’t forget how to pitch in the last 11 days. He has pitched terribly in his last two starts, no doubt about it. But I think he’s earned the right to get another chance.
There are also a pack of folks who want the “Joba Rules” suspended and for Joba Chamberlain to become the Native American Jeff Nelson and pitch whenever needed.
Two words for you: Cole Hamels. Philadelphia’s prized rookie is headed to the MRI tube tomorrow because of a sore elbow. The Phillies are praying it’s not a torn ligament.
The Phillies deserve no breaks, however. Hamels threw 35 innings in 2005 because of a hand and back injuries. Yet he was allowed to throw 181.1 innings in 2006 and 167.1 this season. Oh, by the way, he’s 23.
Two more words for you: Kerry Wood. Do I need to go on? Research has shown that young pitchers who add more than 30 or 40 innings from one season to the next tend to suffer more arm injuries.
Chamberlain had arm trouble at Nebraska in 2006 that limited him to 89.1 innings. He then signed late and didn’t pitch pro ball until going to the winter league in Hawaii in October, four months after he had last pitched in college. He picked up 37 innings there.
So far this season he has thrown 95.1 innings. The Yankees want to cap him around 130 before the playoffs. This is also the first time in his life that he has been worked as a reliever, so they are making sure he gets enough rest between appearances.
I understand that as fans you want the Yankees to win as many games as they can. But do you want them to have a 22-year-old starter who can win 15 games next season? Because that’s what Chamberlain could well be.
Or you can be waiting for news of his MRI.
Look at Chamberlain this way: any innings he pitches are a bonus. This is a kid who was on the disabled list for Class A Tampa when the season started with a sore hamstring. It’s a great story that he’s blowing away big-league hitters. But it’ll be a better story if he’s starting the third game of the season next April, not chilling in the Legends Field trainers room with Carl Pavano.
Who is Carly Pavano?
A real rough start and his club strikeout record broken. A tough day for the Moose.
I don’t want to throw him off the roof, I just hate to see him when he’s so ineffective. Against any plus offense he seems totally overmatched. All of his wins this year have come off teams with very little pop or very little patience at the plate: Texas, TB, White Sox, KC, Oakland, Arizona. I’d love to see him win a big game, and I bet he still could. Otherwise let’s call up Jim Bouton.
sure, Mussina was 5-2 in that span… but do you remember the useless teams that he beat? Cleveland has no offense and Hafner was hurt when he pitched. he was basically facing Grady Sizemore and a bunch of AAAA batters.
with that in mind, he’s been one of the useless players on the team this year. it’s been a good run but the Moose’s days are dwindling. and fast.
Pete, I can’t believe u didn’t rip into Mussina. LOL, j/k. But seriously though, Pukesina can’t be a team with a deep lineup like Detroit or Boston. He’s declining rapidly. I thought you would have addressed the “Villone Debacle.”
Hopefully, there is a change to the bullpen.
It’s suppose to read, “Pukesina can’t beat a team with a deep lineup like Detroit or Boston.”
The reason for the MRI of Hamels’ pitching arm is a mild sprain.
Come one, Pete. Mussina’s been bad all season. He’s only beaten the loser teams.
The Moose thing has been an ongoing pattern since 2004: pitch average or worses until he build up arm strength, get hurt, pitch less well, on on DL, re-gain arm strength and command, pitch better, wear out, pitch poorly.
The problem is that the Moose issue is impacting the pen too much. It’s time to make Mussina a long reliever.
“It never looked like he got in a rhythm of any kind,” Torre said. “When he can’t get the ball where he wants to he gets frustrated.”
And then I’d add: “At that point, Mike always just throws in the towel like the big baby he is.”
Am I disappointed in Moose’s performance? Hell yeah. He came up REALLY short.
But I’m actually WAAAAY more pissed at Villone. We got it back to 5-7. 5-7, folks! If Villone had just given us three goose eggs, MAYBE we would have gotten some confidence back, some swagger. Instead, he BLEW IT minutes after we had gotten back into the game. I rarely get angry at losses, but this one was ugly. It’s one thing to be blown out, but to be sitting on that bench, going into the late innings seeing the Sox had won already….
Okay. Rant over. C’mon, Pettitte….
Boosina is 8-9! The guy has been awful all year. Can’t stand watching him get shelled.
I think the problem we all have here is that we’re remembering Mussina as a top of the rotation guy, when, in reality, he’s really more like a 5th starter now. Yes Mussina pitched horribly, and yes, Mussina inspires little confidence, but you have to take him for what he is these days. The fifth guy in your rotation often gets beat when facing good teams, especially when that team is throwing one of its top 2 guys. And the Angels are a really good team. Do I love Mussina, no, do I hate the fact that he’s whiny and often lacks accountability yes, but he serves his purpose. My biggest fear is that if we make the playoffs, Torre will show loyalty to him and give him a start, which would be a nightmare, especially in a five game series.
Pete,
Completely agree with you re: the Joba Rules. Also, let’s be honest, Joe’s record of killing relief pitchers, Vizcaino pitching in ANOTHER blowout game last night, also factors in (even though I know nobody with the Yankees would EVER say that publicly) the decision. We should all thank God the Joba Rules are in place.
Respectfully disagree about Mussina. I put his numbers against AL teams above .500 in the Mussina thread so I won’t bore you with them here. If you add in his numbers against Tampa (a team he would probably have to pitch 2-3 times against if he stays in the rotation), they are worse.
He put up numbers against bad, free swinging teams, with the exception of the Indians. To be fair, that was a solid performance. Against good teams? He hasn’t been bad, he’s been awful.
He’s been the worst starting pitcher in the league against good teams. He’s been Igawa-awful.
Sorry, he doesn’t have the luxury of “figuring it out” because of his past pedigree. His past pedigree gave him two guaranteed years on a new contract, despite the fact he’s blown THREE multi-run post-season leads in the last three years.
The past got him his new deal. The past can’t keep him in the rotation. Not if they want a chance to play for the post-season.
If he stays in, they are out. Its that simple.
They can no longer afford to carry Mike Mussina in the starting rotation. Not from a financial standpoint, from a performance standpoint.
Let’s hope, on this “day after”, they make the right decision. Their playoff hopes depend on it.
Bad game but it is only one loss. As Torre says Tonight we have Pettitte, two innings of Joba, Farnsworth and Rivera. That’s what I am counting on..Kyle Farnsworth in a big spot! He is to pitching what Bruce Springsteen is to music.
Wait we have two innings of Joba tonight? Hopefully Petite pictches 6 full innings and we are leading up to that point so we won’t have to sweat through Farnsworth. Agree with you SJ about Viz pitching last night, who else was in the bullpen though? The Yanks don’t need a mop up reliever, they need a slop up reliever. Someone who can pitch 6 innings of a blowup regardless if he gives up 30 runs. There’s just no way Viz should have pitched last night. Can’t wait til Sept. 1. Hopefully Britton, Ohlendoff, and Whelan will get the call to save Viz from Torre.
blowup was supposed to be blowout.
People who want to use Joba whenever needed need to learn something about the human body. I bet 90% of themj couldn’t even throw 20 pitches without needing to take a break. Joba is one of seven in that pen, he shouldn’t be needed everyday, if he is then might as well call it quits for the year since our pen must be horrible.
Okay, I may be an idiot, I may be quite mad, but put me down as the last person on earth who believes in Mussina and thinks he’s still got another good streak left in the season.
I have to wonder. Bob Feller pitched 300 innings when he was Hamels age. I wonder what changed as far as pitching since the 1940′s. He pitched nine seasons of over 240 innings, and even missed three years because of WWII.
agree. For better or worse, the Yankees are married to Mussina for the rest of the season. However, this should NOT preclude them from skipping him for ONE start to avoid Detroit and Boston.
Were I the Yankees I would proceed acccordingly.
With the day off on Thursday, the Yankees can pitch,
1) Clemens on Friday (5 days rest)
2) Wang on Saturday (5 days rest)
3) Hughes on Sunday (5 days rest)
4) Pettitte on Monday (4 days rest)(this assumes Pettitte doesn’t have to throw more than 110 pitches tonight)
Now, while Pete is right, it’s too much to ask a rookie to pitch every fifth day in the major during a pennant race, you can pitch him ONE game. (Boston demonstrated as much with Bucholz last Friday against the Angels)
Ian Kennedy is currently on schedule to pitch on August 28th. That also happens to be the first game of the Red Sox series. For this one game, I would promote Kennedy.
The rotation for Boston then would be:
1) Kennedy – August 28th
2) Clemens — August 29th
3) Wang– August 30th
I would tell Mussina that the team wants him to take a turn to clear his head, to regain his confidence, to rectify his mechanics, etc.
I would then return Mussina to the rotation on September 2nd against the Devil Rays.
“The reason for the MRI of Hamels’ pitching arm is a mild sprain.”
It’s a strain, not a sprain. Which means there is some tearing of the ligament.
Controlling pitch counts has no correlation to pitcher longevity. Pete…for every pitcher whose arm has blown up, I can give you someone who has had a long successful career. Examples? Andy Pettitte…1991 (minors) 70 Innings, 1992..168 minors, same thru 1994, then majors 1995 = 175 IP. Moose: 1990 = 55 IP, 1991 = 221 IP, 1992 = 241 IP. They are still around, a dozen years later. Leo Mazzone’s philosophy is that pitchers should throw more, not less. I understand the point of controlling the number of times you pitch and rest. You would think there would be a lot more science to this subject than what I could find. Especially given the size of contracts these days.
there are lots of variables in this…starting with the individual, training regimen, type of pitcher, etc. One of the interesting things I’ve seen lately is the pre-emptive TJ surgery. Even though it means taking a year off, pitchers seem to come back stronger, since with “new” ligaments, the pitcher should be better after the surgery than before. I will say though, this is giving more credit than the surgery is due, because of a very disciplined re-hab after surgery that means more than the actual operation.
Kill Schill–
I was thinking the same thing. Skip Moose on Monday, since everyone can stay on regular rest (more or less) with the off day Thursday. But let’s not get nuts about the guy. If you look at him as our fifth starter, a guy who can beat the dregs of the league and struggles against the top teams, he doesn’t look so bad.
Look at the fifth starters for most teams. They’re not all All-Stars, people.
Agree with Pete on Joba. On Mike Mussina, there is a different stroy. As reserched by WasWatching, he simply cant’ beat good hitters any more. Hasn’t done so all year, which makes him a very poor fit for a team ith Championship aspirations. Here is what they found:
- In the 12 games started by Mussina where the Yankees lost: Mussina averages 4.8 IP per start and has an ERA of 8.16.
- In the 10 games started by Mussina where the Yankees won: Mussina averages 6.3 IP per start and has an ERA of 2.57.
And River Aveneu Blues digs deeper into these horrible vs. good starts, and finds that it is a function of the quality of the opponent:
“The ten games in which Mussina has pitched and the Yanks have won came against some pretty woeful teams going through bad stretches. He beat Texas in back-to-back starts in May; he has pitched well in wins against the White Sox twice; he beat the Royals twice; he stifled a pathetic Oakland offense and downed the Devil Rays.
On the flip side, Mussina has gotten shelled by the Red Sox (twice), Angels, Tigers, and, um, the Devil Rays and Orioles. He can’t beat playoff contenders and seems to have problems with teams that have a few good hitters.”
We are stuck with him this year, but he should be mop-up guy if we make the post season. The one great post-season memory I have of MM was his mopping up and keeping us in in the great 2003 Aaron Boone comeback against Pedro.
But for 2008, we should eat half his salry and see if he can be moved to an Division more to his liking. The Cardinals, or Braves for example would be happy to have a 4/5 that can beat the bad teams since that is mostly what they play. We can’t afford 35 starts from him, especially if we have two kids (Joba and PH) in the rotation that will not be called on to picth more than 160 innings each or so.
poor viz his arm must really be hanging now
Actually, I did ask him, and he admitted that he has in fact forgotten how to pitch in the last 11 days. He said he’s going to watch some instructional videos.
Pete,
This “overuse” injury stuff on young pitchers is complete, utter unscientific bullshit. “Research has shown…” What research? What sample size? What methodology?
This is all front office speak for “let’s cover our ass in case this kid ever gets hurt.”
Bottom line is some guys are injury prone and some guys are not. Tell me how many innings Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux threw when they were in their early-to-mid 20′s?
Pete,
This “overuse” injury stuff on young pitchers is complete, utter unscientific crap. “Research has shown…” What research? What sample size? What methodology?
This is all front office speak for “let’s cover our ass in case this kid ever gets hurt.”
Bottom line is some guys are injury prone and some guys are not. Tell me how many innings Jim Palmer, Tom Seaver, Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux threw when they were in their early-to-mid 20′s?
I never understood why Cashman was so eager to re-sign Mussina. It may be that he was willing to give a 2 year contract to Mussina rather than a 4 year contract to Lilly.
My hope is that Mussina comes to ST and realizes he no longer has the ability to get batters out and retires rather than go through another embarrassing year. The Yankees will not pay any part of his contract to play for another team. The Yankees abhor this idea (see Farnsworth, Kyle). No team would want to assume Mussina’s contract as is coming off the year he is having. There may even be a no-trade clause in the contract.
It is very possible that there will not be a slot for Mussina as a starter next year even at number 5. This is a development worth following next spring.
Re: the hundreds of innings young Feller, Palmer, Seaver, etc. threw without their arms being babysat: I’m no SABRian or anything, but I have been a fan for most of my forty+ years and can tell you that hitting instruction has taken great strides. If you have ever watched games from the 60s-80s on ESPN Classic or even watched “The Bronx is Burning” (which is pretty entertaining despite John Turturro’s confusing Billy Martin with Dizzy Dean), you can see how undisciplined position players used to be at the plate until the advent of hitting gurus like Charley Lau and Walt Hriniak. Blazing fastballs don’t get Major Leaguers out anymore, they get raked unless they have movement or dart in and out, and that takes its toll on the elbows and shoulders.
I’m a SF Giant lifer, and while Robb Nen blew away batters in the 9th with a 95+ fastball and a 93 slider, his arm was hanging by a thread. Unfortunately, when the Giants needed his brilliance the most — in the 2002 World Series — he was on fumes. He gutted out a save in Game 4, but that was it — he was done in Game 5, when the Giants blew a 5-0 lead. He never pitched in another regular season game.
I’m getting the same thrill from watching young Tim Lincecum as I used to get from Nen. Lincecum (who needs a nickname — I nominate “Kid Vicious”) is so far as dominant a pitcher the Giants have had since perhaps Juan Marichal, but he’s on a short leash if he walks batters. The team ain’t going anywhere this year, so if I get less Lincecum now so he’ll be there to pitch a future Game 7, I’m fine with it.