Comments on: Lowell now available; should Yanks chase?

By: BPT

BPT — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 21:27:11 +0000

LathemJoe

Puhleeze! You asked me for one example I gave you four, there are lots more… again whatever.

Where did I say you were comparing ability? I said you were comparing Arod to Lowell period. I quoted your line for the comparison, please find me a quote where I said you were comparing their ability… good luck /shrugs /rolls eyes.

My point is that I think it is entirely reasonable to believe it is less risky to be forced to have Arod on your team for the next 8 years than to have Lowell for the next four. Arod is historically a great player worthy of being mentioned in the same breath as Aaron. Lowell is worthy of being mentioned in the same breath as … well Todd Zeile and Doug Decinces (check out there 34-37 age seasons).

Is Arod likely to decline — of course, but he has a lot further to fall before he becomes below average (which is all I claimed he likely would be at 40). Even a steady decline by Lowell will make him bench worthy in a couple of years — we signed Johnny Damon to a four year deal when he was two years younger than Lowell and it looks like he is already bench worthy.

By: LathamJoe

LathamJoe — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 20:07:01 +0000

BPT:
“Many are also saying that 4 years is too long for a 33-year third basemen. I didnâ€™t hear many complaining about the
8-year deal offered to our former 32-year old third basemen, which wouldâ€™ve left him in Pinstripes at Age 40.”

Does that sound like a comparison of skills or a comparison about contract length?

You’ve also made a stronger case for NOT signing ballplayers to long term contracts where they’ll play into their 40s.
You’ve used a span of 24 years (1973-2007) to come up with exactly 4 MLB players who you feel have put up “respectable OPS+”.

Aaron’s and Molitor’s OPS+ in their 39-42 years are significantly below their career marks.

“Heck, just this year Moises Alou put up a respectable OPS+ of 121. ”
Yeah, but you failed to mention that Alou, because of age and injuries, played in only 89 Games/328 ABs.

When he is 40 he will be breaking records and will likely still be significantly above average in terms of hitting production.

By: BPT

BPT — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 18:22:45 +0000

Many are also saying that 4 years is too long for a 33-year third basemen. I didnâ€™t hear many complaining about the
8-year deal offered to our former 32-year old third basemen, which wouldâ€™ve left him in Pinstripes at Age 40.

That sure likes like a comparison to me… it seems apparent to me that the obvious answer to your question is that AROD and Lowell aren’t remotely the same or similar players. Whatever.

As for players performing above average at 40 there are actually more than you might think. Fisk put up OPS+ of 155, 136, and 134 in his 40-42 year old season. Molitor put up an OPS+ of 104 at 40. Hank Aaron put up a 128 in his year 40 season (matching Lowell’s OPS+ in Lowell’s best season and beating his OPS+ this year). Hank had a pretty nice year at 39 as well — .301/.402/.643 with 40HRs for an eye-popping 177 OPS+. Heck, just this year Moises Alou put up a respectable OPS+ of 121.

Check out Hank’s 32-40 seasons — While one can never be sure (injuries etc), its a decent bet that Arod will be quite productive for some time.

By: LathamJoe

LathamJoe — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 17:52:05 +0000

And another thing, BPT, name me one 40-year old MLB player
that is “still significantly above average in terms of hitting production”..that isn’t on steriods or HGH.

By: LathamJoe

LathamJoe — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 17:47:33 +0000

BPT:
Where did I say that Lowell compared to ARod in talent?
I do think that he is a superior fielder, a better team player, and a more consistent contact hitter.
My point was that both are 3B and, typically, most ballplayers skills start to diminish after Age 35.
We’ve already seen that long-term contracts with ballplayers
who will be performing in their late 30s is somewhat risky.

Signing Lowell for 4 years will likely get at least 2 years of good offensive production and top flight defensive value and another 2 years of decent output at third – at a cost of (probably) $55 Mil total, plus luxury tax.

The Yankees offered ARod a 5-year extension on top of his remaining 3 years in the neighborhood of $235 Million. ARod keeps himself in fine shape so he likely has another 3-4 years of significant production. But since these long term contracts are typically backloaded, ARod will probably be making in the neighborhood of $30 million at ages 38,39 and 40 – not a wise investment for another DH who has yet to yet prove any Post Season production. During those same years , Lowell will be off the books.

I’ve consistently mentioned on this Blog that ARod is the most talented baseball player in the current MLB Era. He is also the most psychologically flawed. Do you really want the media circus that is ARod for another 8 years?

By: BPT

BPT — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 17:05:04 +0000

LathamJoe — you don’t seriously believe that Lowell and Arod are even remotely comparable do you? Arod is one of the best players all time. When he is 40 he will be breaking records and will likely still be significantly above average in terms of hitting production. If Lowell is still starting in 4 years, he is likely to be below average in terms of production for a third basement (heck he might be below average in 2 years). There is a significant chance that he will be playing at replacement level in 4 years — I for one am a little tired of paying mega bucks to bench warmers/pinch hitters (damon/matsui and Giambi wave hello). No thanks on Lowell — Frankly I think Betemit is likely to match his production next year.

By: eric.

eric. — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:55:38 +0000

abes – quick cherry-picking your stats to make a weak point

Lowell, in 2006(remember, he played for Bos in 06, too):

home: .260/.327/.436
away: .310/.352/.514

at Yankee Stadium
308/.341/.487

I still wouldn’t give the guy 4 years.

By: NJ

NJ — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:34:25 +0000

no, no, no.

By: Irabu's Son

Irabu's Son — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:19:45 +0000

If the Yankees re-sign Lowell, look for something like .250, 18, 75. All those bombs he hit at Fenway are flyouts to LF in Yankee Stadium. And he’s not getting any younger. Staying with Betemit as a one-year stopgap allows the team some payroll flexibility to shore up the bullpen or a starter.. and then go with someone better in 2009 if/when a better option is available.

Seriously.. Lowell will not flourish in Yankee Stadium the way he did in Fenway.

By: Ranting Guy

Ranting Guy — Tue, 13 Nov 2007 16:15:00 +0000

I’m thinking to sign Lowell would be a good idea. Hitting in the Sox lineup and in their park probably helped him but as Latham Joe said, he could adapt his hitting style. Adding his defense here (even if his bat turns out just ‘adeqate’) would cost no prospects lost via trade. Adding Cabrera’s or Tejada’s bat would. Crede might or might not be injury prone. Going 4 years for Lowell maybe OK w/o overpaying per year.

I think if A-Rod ends up in Boston it may have already been discussed anyways, and it may have something to do with why Boston hasn’t given Lowell the offer he really wants. So signing Lowell could also prevent them from having A-Rod AND Lowell on the left side of the infield.

If A-Rod’s not already pre-ordained to go to Boston, they may be more inclined to extend Manny when his contract’s up. Then if they don’t, their only moster bat for ’09 would be Ortiz.