Name the pitcher, win a prize. Or maybe not
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- November
- 28
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Here’s a little quiz, baseball fans:
This pitcher was 3-2 with a 5.70 ERA against teams from the AL East last season (not counting the Yankees).
He was 5-7, 4.04 in the second half of the season, allowing 88 hits (16 of them home runs) over 98 innings. The 33 home runs he allowed for the season were nine more than in any other previous season. Scouts have noticed he appears hesitant to throw his slider.
He has one victory in five career playoff starts.
Look, I love Johan Santana and if the Yankees can get him for IPK, the Melkman and another kid, than good for them. That is doubtful, however, and I’m not so sure this is a pursue-at-all-costs move.
Santana was once a kid. The Twins plucked him out the Houston system, nurtured him in the bullpen for the better part of four years and then he exploded. Why can’t the Yankees stick with their plan?
Name me all the pitchers with $100 million contracts that proved worth the price. Plenty will people tell you Santana is different and maybe he is. He probably is. Or maybe he’s the next Mike Hampton or Kevin Brown or Barry Zito.
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on Wednesday, November 28th, 2007 at 11:10 am by Peter Abraham.
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Completely agree, Pete. BC should hold steady.
the Saux, Angels, or Dodgers are not going to pay Santana $25 million a season. that’s just not going to happen.
the way i see it, it’s between the Yankees and Mets, and unless the Mets empty everything they have, Kennedy, Melky and Tabata trumps any package they put together. That simple.
BC just needs to realize he’s bidding against only himself here.
you’re preachin’ to the choir. i’d MUCH rather them either stick with our young guns and or go after danny haren
Totally agree. It’s a total crapshoot and $126m+/6-7 years and giving up three to five of your best kids is too high of an asking price. Lets go into 2008 with what we have now (hopeful for Pettitte), and play out the season. My guess is if “The Big Three” all start for the Yankees next year they will all beat their expectations two-fold. Besides, its a helluva lot cheaper to do it this way too.
Santana is not the difference maker everyone thinks he is. You need to be a power pitcher to be an ace in the AL East, and this is a guy who’s strikeout pitch is a changeup. If the Yanks can get him for IPK, Melky, and Tabata, I’m all for it. Hang up if the Twins want more. Who else is realistically going to give this guy $150 million?
Im gonna guess that pitcher is Johan Santana??? lol.
Santana is different though, I mean look at Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, and Barry Zito’s stats they all really aren’t even close to what Santana has been doing over the last 4 or 5 seasons. Santana can throw high 90s when you have Hampton who has never been a hard thrower, and same with Kevin Brown. The new management has to make an impact, I don’t want them to deal Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain i’m hoping they can take Kennedy, Melky, Horne, and maybe another pitcher. I mean that’s a good deal right? It fills 2 rotation spots and there centerfield vacany.
IPK, Melky and another minor league pitcher..pull the trigger. No Tabata..hold onto this kid and Jackson. Future centerfielder and right fielder to take over for Abreu.
Please tell me who plays center next year if Cabrera is dealt.
I’d rather give up IPK, Austin Jackson, and Tabata.
How Do , I would Not Over Pay in terms of Cano or Hughes. The Yankees are in the Driver’s seat on this one . Make a fair offer IPK-Melky-Tabata that’s it . DO NOT TRADE CANO or HUGHES .
Very Nice !!!
The twins actually got Santana from the Marlins, who had gotten him from the Astros via Rule 5 draft.
and you also have to understand it wasn’t like Santana was pitching for anything, he was out of the Cy Young race and his team was pretty much out of contention after the first 2 months and he had a 3.33 ERA, he had a ton of strikeouts and he doesn’t walk a whole lot of batters. Put him with the Yankees next year he will win a tleast 18 games, his ERA won’t be any worst than 3.40, he will not allow anymore than 25 homerun.
let the mets have him.
You forgot the 4.00 ERA in the playoffs and the 0-5 record vs. their top rival (Cleveland). AND the FACT that Phil Hughes already has just as many postseason wins. Seriously the “idiot logic” out there on this potential move is frightening.
…& Horne too if they want him.
How many pitchers have had $100 million contracts? Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton and Barry Zito. Is that a big enough sample? How many times have baseball revenues been over $6 billion? So $100 million isn’t worth what it used to be?
How many times have highly touted pitching prospects fizzled as their careers went on? Remember Generation K a dozen years ago in Queens? Or wood and Prior with the Cubs?
Of course if Santana comes and signs with the yankees, doesn’t that further disprove the “Yankees won’t be able to sign any free agents now that they insulted Joe Torre by offering him a one year deal” that Abraham was saying last month? Rodriguez, Posada and Rivera have already proven that wrong and while players like Torre, they love money even more (as Torre did when he went to the Dodgers. No Pittsburgh Pirates for Torre).
The post season record of Santana is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA. But his last three starts (2004, 2006) it is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA.
save phil hughes:
THANK YOU
I agree it.
We need a power pitcher,an real ACE.
None ACE since 2004.
Just look at the postseason. L0L
Sing that gospel, Pete. Sing it loud. Sing it proud.
Forget Johan. Get us a bullpen, damnit.
Mitchell’s Eleven (cool name)…
The bullpen can’t save a game when the Yanks are losing 10-0 in the third inning of an ALCS or World Series game 7.
Irabu’s Son-
“The Yankees are apparently willing to consider moving Cabrera, who hit .291 with 58 RBI after taking over as the Yankees’ regular center fielder, because they told the agent for free-agent center fielder Aaron Rowand they would have interest in Rowand if they trade Cabrera”
But at what point does the money run out and you realize you are pretty much back in the same old boat. An aging team of superstars….
For the right price, it’s a good deal. If Minny gets greedy, pass. Santana knows the deal.
Irabu’s son, we have a center fielder. His name is Johnny Damon.
Anybody who thinks Johan isn’t a difference maker is nuts. The guy is the best pitcher in baseball over the last 5 years and it’s not even close. Pete just cherry-picked some stats but that’s not fair to Johan. He is the best and most dominant pitcher in the game today.
I also think the Yankees should not trade for him because the price will be too high. But trying to rationalize it by pretending that it’s because Johan isn’t all that good is just nonsensical.
Save Ferris too, while you’re at it.
Chalk it up to poor run support. Give Santana Wangs run support and he would easily won 20+ games.
As for the playoff stats, he’s had what? 5 starts? Most of which came years ago and against the mighty Yankees. I’d rather look at his recent 3, which were pretty good to say the least.
You know what’s stupid?
People who wouldn’t trade Kennedy, Tabata/Prospect, and Melky. That’s the rumored deal, and it probably for won’t stay at that but for arguments sake, you wouldn’t do that deal?
Good points about Santana’s performance Pete. There’s no question he’s really good but there is a limit to what a team’s net gain could be to get him. He’s not the second coming of Doc Gooden or Pedro in their primes. Perhaps IPK, Melky and another b-level prospect would be the limit. This assumes Tabata’s the real deal, and can play CF in a year or two at the most. No deals with Hughes or Joba.
Throughout the year I’ve heard various IPK comparisons to a young Mike Mussina. They could just mean he reminds people of Moose for a variety of reasons. But I wonder how many scouts who know what they’re talking about see IPK as someone who would actually become as good as Mussina was in his prime.
I really don’t know … Joba’s obviously got the tools and Hughes showed convincing flashes of his potential through his rehab/comeback, but I really haven’t seen enough of IPK yet. Pete? If he’s on par with Moose at the same age, our net gain over 6 years by losing IPK & Melky for Santana would be little if nothing.
If the 3 kids are all the real deal, and none go the route of Kerry Wood or Mark Prior, then we’re better in the long haul with all of them instead of Santana. We might be better off convincing Pettitte to stay another year or two instead.
Now, where’d I put my crystal ball?
if Johan wants to come to NY he knows what he has to do, I wouldn’t up any offer, offer what we can Kennedy, Melky,Horne, if Minny starts screing w/ us go after Scott Kazmir
i am for johan.
(screwing)Pete you need an edit option here
Global Warming, for some reason your post made me chuckle, the way you wrote “Santana Wangs” without the apostrophe.
It would be a great name for a band. The Santana Wangs.
Because this is Johan Santana. Not Denny Neagle, not an old Randy Johnson, not a beat up Kevin Brown. Santana had an off year by his standard, but he’s still 28, not 38. You can’t let a guy like this go. Look at the difference Beckett has made for the Sox. And they paid a price in giving up Hanley Ramirez.
me too, but I don’t like being held up for one player, especially one who may or may not have health issues
There have been a lot of potential packages of players thrown around with people trying to think up what would be fair value or enough for santana.
Here’s another way of looking at it.
The Twins will be forced to accept the best package of talent they are offered that is better than the compensations picks they’d get if Santana walks. They will be further forced to pick this best package of talent from the very small handful of teams Santana wants to play for.
That’s it. That’s all the yankees have to do – offer that best package better than the draft picks. Yes you have to “give value to get it†but value depends on circumstance. Right now santana’s value is relatively low because there is not much of a viable market for him.
Best package better than two draft picks from a team Santana would accept a trade to.
That’s the parameters of this deal.
What is the plan that the Yanks are not sticking to? Holding onto prospects at all costs? What the hell sorta plan is that…
mel,
Johnny Damon is as broken-down and pathetic-looking center field as Bernie Williams was in his last years…
Damon should exclusively be a left fielder.
Matsui should exclusively be a DH.
Melky should be the center fielder. I like Rowan but as Bronx Stop said……
Scott Kazmir
Poor Mets.(>.
It’s true that Santana had a rougher go in the second half last season and it’s true that $100 million contracts usually backfire. This guy is different from all of the others, however. This is Johan Santana that we’re talking about, the best pitcher in the game. He’s only going to be 29 at the start of the season. He has plenty of life left in that arm. If Cashman feels like he can’t resist and needs to go full-bore for Santana, then he should do it if the price is not too high. A good GM follows his instincts and doesn’t worry about the mistakes of others who have authorized $100 million contracts. Sure, those other large contracts backfired, but those have nothing to do with Santana or this deal.
Exactly. The Yankees lack and have lacked for sometime, that stud pitcher anchoring their rotation. With Pettitte seemingly not coming back, it makes plenty of sense to grab the best pitcher in baseball.
It’s quite humerous when Pete and people on this blog compare him to Brown, Zito, Pavano, etc.
It’s not even close folks.
Hey global warming, I can play the speculation game too: Phil Hughes will win 30 games next year with a 0.00 ERA. Give me a break. His trends are trending upward. And no, as a pitcher, that’s not a good thing.
Poor run support? I think the 5.40 ERA vs. the AL east also helped. His 4.00 ERA is also a reason for the playoff losses. And he is consistently outpiched by the other team’s aces. Sabathia, Carmona owned him. And don’t forget his last postseason start where he got knocked around in the top of the 1st and helped earn Barry Zito a 126 million dollar contract.
And my point is that you DONT deal Hughes for him or anyone else. Period. Here’s a deal:
Kennedy
Matsui
Cabrera
Karstens
“The Santana Wangs.”
Could be a reality soon
The key hear is Johan has the NTC, has already expressed he’d want to play in NY, so don’t overload on the kitchen sink for this guy
Hope they stand pat, and I think they will. I’m betting Santana does not end up in pinstripes. Hughes will have an extremely improved 2008 which will translate into him being on the way to realizing his true potential. I think Joba will have an adjustment period, for us fans that is, as most of us have never seen him as a starter. There might be a significant “let down” factor after watching hom dominate for 1-2 innings at a time and then seeing him go through AL East lineups over 6-7 innings.
In the long run, I think it’s a safe bet that Joba and Hughes will be anchoring the staff. Add pitchers from other teams at your own risk, Mr. Cashman. The Yankees have been burned with nearly every ML pitcher acquired over the past 3-4 years with the exception of Andy.
The key here is Johan has the NTC, has already expressed he’d want to play in NY, so don’t overload on the kitchen sink for this guy
agreed, Pete. Blessed if we do, blessed if we don’t. Though Santana’s NTC and prohibitive salary demands will limit what the Twins can get for him.
Yeah, people said the same thing about Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. How did that go. AND ZITO OUTPITCHED SANTANA IN THE PLAYOFFS. Please support your conclusions with something other than “this is Johan Santana”, Mr. Joel Sherman, er, I mean Global Warming.
I’m with you Pete. I’m not a fan of trading any of our youngsters for Santana.
Right now, the main reason I would want Santana is simply to keep him away from Boston.
If there was some sort of assurance that he would hold out until after the season, I would rather wait and get him via free agency.
I’d also rather go for Kazmir.
Don’t deal Melky.
And if you extrapolate the future from a single season Mariano Rivera is in decline too.
Three countervailing Jamesian/McCracken stats that suggest Santana’ ERA was an aberration:
1) His walk totals didn’t vary by a statistically significant amount from his annual mean, about 49 BBs.
2) His Strike Out totals, 235, didn’t depart significantly from his best seasons and moreover, ranked second in the AL, four behind Kazmir.
3) The percentage of groundball he induced was 38%, about 2% less than his previous 3 years, albeit not a statistically significant amount.
“Hey global warming, I can play the speculation game too: Phil Hughes will win 30 games next year with a 0.00 ERA. Give me a break. His trends are trending upward. And no, as a pitcher, that’s not a good thing.”
Hmm
Having high expectations for a rookie/young pitcher who was hurt this year.
OR
Having high expectations for the best pitcher in baseball in junction with the best run support in baseball.
You got me there.
Seriously, so much negative talk for all the positive things said about Johan.
Take a pass Cashman and Hank, its probably not worth it in the long run.
Irabu,
I know all that. You asked who would play center field if we traded Melky. Well, the fact of the matter is we’re paying Damon something like $13M to play center. I’d rather have a Johan/Damon combo rather than a Kennedy/Melky combo and I LOVE Ian.
Damon will play with a chip on his shoulder if he gets the center field job back for a year. Once again, this is not ideal, but if we get Johan I can’t see going and getting Rowand or Jones. That’s just dumb.
Phil Hughes isnt even OUR best pitching prospect, let alone anything close to being the best prospect in the league. He is a good step below BuckHoles the laptop stealer for christ sake and prolly less of a talent than Lester when all is said and done… and unless he develops a MUCH better change, Joba will be looking down at him for a long time.
Point is, time to get off this kids package – he is a good prospect, I like him, want him to stay a Yankee, but he is not our savior and no way do you hold a kid like this when you get a Santana… no way.
ps: After seeing his picture on his website here, http://philiphughes.net, I almost want us to trade him… lol, what is with the faux club boy thug look?
“Name me all the pitchers with $100 million contracts that proved worth the price.”
None, but that’s not really the question. Talent costs are relative and float in a market affected by numerous factors from season to season.
Kevin Brown was older and had a pronounced DL tendency when the Yankees acquired him. Hampton? I never understood the big deal about Hampton. Barry Zito? He was never worth that money, being on a downhill trend since his Cy Young season. He was in the market at the right time and rode the wave with Boras.
The Yankees are looking into acquiring a 28 year old lefty pitcher who has two Cy Youngs. Despite giving up a league leading total of HRs last year, he was still in the top ten in almost every other pitching performance category. Lefties are especially valuable with Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch and as SJ likes to point out, Santana has a low impact motion (unlike Brown) and that bodes well for durability.
Scouts noticed that Wang threw his sinker less often last year too. Was that due to injury, pain, the fact that Wang was becoming too predictable or because he wanted to be a more complete pitcher? Except for the last factor the same ambiguity exists about Santana’s “reluctance” to throw his slider. There’s no reason to conclude it’s an injury issue without more information.
Even if the trade involves Hughes, you are talking about trading a potential star for a proven one. Hughes is in fact more likely to have another injury next season if they do not keep him to a tight pitch count, making sure he does not increase his workload more than a certain percentage. No such limits on the usually healthy and durable Santana. To me the injury issue is a non-issue as to each player. Still, Hughes had a freak injury last year. It could happen to any player even one without an injury history.
And it’s not a pursue at all costs type move. No Joba, no Cano, and only one of IPK and Hughes. The Yanks would be giving up an average CF with a light bat, a minor league OF and/or pithing prospect and one high ceiling young pitcher to get a proven, star lefty pitcher who is only going to be 29 next year.
The Yankees are deep right now in pitching and OF prospects thanks to Cashman. Prospects do two things: fill your roster with cheap MLB talent and provide chips for trades that improve your MLB roster instead of going out to an overpriced FA market. With the money coming off the books soon on Giambi, Pavano and others, this is a sound move to make.
SavePhilHughes:
“Heres a deal:
Kennedy
Matsui
Cabrera
Karstens”
You really do like Phil Hughes, huh?
Before people decide phil hughes is expendable in this trade they should read the following article from the hardball times earlier this year. It puts hughes career and potential in context.
He’s not just a great prospect he’s a phenomenal one. people are forgetting this because of the leg injuries he’s had.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....ip-hughes/
Irabu’s son,
Sorry. I shouldn’t have said that was dumb. I went back and re-read your post only to see that’s what you suggested. Apologies.
Look Steve Phillips,
8 IP 2 Runs 1 BB 8 K’s by Santana. Oh man, what a pitiful performance.
If only those scrappy Twin bats could actually hit against Zito!
Why did you set me up with such a softball?
Dave, Hughes is younger and at a younger age destroyed the Easter League Buchholz was in as an older player this past year. He’s better.
I’d love to see the Yankees avoid making any trades. 2008 will not be 2007. These kids will improve in the next year and they’ve succeeded in bringing back everyone they needed to in terms of FAs and opt-outs.
It’s exciting to think about the next three years, about the trio of Hughes, Joba and IPK possibly all being very good-excellent. I’d love to see what happens in the OF when Matsui, Abreu and Damon pass the batons to Tabata, Gardner, and Jackson (Cabreara’s already here, but you need a fourth outfielder, no?)
I am not someone who buys into the George Steinbrenner BS that anything less than a championship is a failure. 2007 was very successful in terms of establishing what could be the long term sustainability of the team (being patient with young pitchers, investing in player development, holding on to high-ceiling prospects, etc.)
I don’t see the Yankees trading Phil Hughes, at least, not before the trade deadline.
If the Yankees did, I would have to believe it’s because they truly believe IPK is the better pitcher…and while he’s more polished…
Eh. I’d almost be happier if they didn’t trade for Santana.
“Heres a deal:
Kennedy
Matsui
Cabrera
Karstensâ€
You really do like Phil Hughes, huh?”
Yes. Look at his numbers, age, makeup and stuff.
I also hear what Minnesota wants so I am not going to propose 5 “B” level players. Thats 4 ML ready players for Minnesota, all of whom are replaceable in the Yanks system. (I really like IPK as well, but I can’t see Minny selling this deal w/ out one of the big 3).
From Rob Neyer’s chat yesterday:
Will we know if Petitte is coming back by the time the GMs get together next week? I think that tell whether or not this trade happens.
I am still on the fence.
I don’t want to give up Hughes.
Johnny Damon in centerfield scares me too. Rather keep the Melkman.
“Look Steve Phillips,
8 IP 2 Runs 1 BB 8 K’s by Santana. Oh man, what a pitiful performance.
If only those scrappy Twin bats could actually hit against Zito!
Why did you set me up with such a softball?”
A loss is a loss. Maybe it was because their ace got knocked around in the 1st inning and they pressed?
Pete stay on vacation.Remember there was rumors Santana and most of the locker room in Minnasota was pissed Luis Castillo was traded for a bag of fritos.And Santana was pissed in the second half because the Twins didn’t trade crap and said he woukd waive his no trade.Remember Santana is the greatest pitcher active in the second half of every season.Maybe he just wanted out.
Also Manny and Ortiz had mediocre years this year,are we saying they are done.Listen remember Andy Pettitte has a 4 ERa in the Post season meaning Pettitte isn’t dominate either.So just because Santana has one win might because unlike Pettitte Santana doesn’t have a big lineup in the playoffs,no wonder Pete didn’t give us Santana Era in the Post season just that he won 1 game.
And Mike Hampton was a joke even back then.Kevin Brown didn’t suck for us.Like Pavano he was just always injured and we were told he will win us or lose us 20 games.Barry Zito c’mon Pete just stay on vacation or make comparasions to a 40 year old Randy Johnson.Santana is not Pedro who before going to the Mets had a 10-10 5 Era against the Yankees and Beckett who is like 2-6 with a high 4ERa.Be smart Pete.
SavePhilHughes-
Haha. Sorry no disrespect meant…I admire your devotion…If I didn’t know any better I might even think that you ARE Phil Hughes. I totally agree with you on him though. The kids a stud. Any deal with Hughes is not a deal. Because of this I do not think that he is in any danger whatsoever of being traded. Someone may want to start a “Save IPK” or “Save The Melk-Man” campaign however.
CB:
No doubt Hughes has a high ceiling. But he’s all about potential. Besides, it’s not like the Yankees are giving up Hughes to get a utility infielder. To the degree it is possible to know these things with any certainty, the Yankees would be replacing great potential pitching with great proven pitching.
A lot of people are so thrown off by the fact that the Yankees have prospects again. That’s because the Yankees have mended their ways to a degree over the last two or three years, drafted more sensibly and held onto youth. But the prospects are accumulating and sometimes this is what prospects are used for.
The Yankees still want to win now and, barring injury, plague and flood, Santana is more likely to help achieve that goal in the next three to five years than Hughes would be. After that, Hughes may be the star Santana is now. But by then, Horne or any of the rest of the kids could be the next Hughes. It’s the circle of life.
Wang got knocked around in the first inning against the Indians. That must explain why we lost, the guys starting pressing. Big difference between Johan/Zito performance and Wang/Sabathia performance. They were both losses so that makes Johan & Wang equal? That’s the problem with generalizing.
No worries Mel. I like Rowan, I really do, especially after seeing him in person track down balls like a vulture in YS for a whole weekend when he was with the Sox. But at SOME point, the spending has to stop…
Rowan and Santana would cost not only about 4 prospects, but also $150m.
Tough decision.
I would still try to dangle Austin Jackson, IPK, Horne, and Tabata in their (Minnesota’s) faces.
Murpheydog, the reason wang through less sinkers had much to do with pitching 2/3rds of the season with a split and infected fingernail..the finger that creates the movement on the sinker.
(White Sox, that is)
Drop the Santana idea and go for Peavy. He could probably be had for Hughes and Melky. Pete does have a point, he seems to get beat by other teams aces more than not. The homerun totals rising isnt a good sign.
Peavy is younger and cheaper. Wont cost us the whole farm.
If that fails,go for Oswalt for even less.
Let’s Keep Phil
http://www.nysportsfan.org/200.....t-not.html
By Rob Neyer’s logic then – the Yankees should be willing to trade Joba for Santana. Would you think that’s a good move?
Also by the logic the Red Sox should trade Buchholz for Santana yet they aren’t going to. Does Theo not have access to the BA top prospect list for the past 17 years?
It’s not a question of is Santana better than Hughes or more likely to stay healthy. It’s a question of relative value given Santana’s exorbitant contract demands, his not trade clause and the limited market of teams that can pay him and that he would agree to play for.
Look at it this way – Arod is a much better player than Miguel Cabrera (take into account defense and its not even close). Yet many teams would rather have Cabrera because he represents a better value for them.
Santana’s contract demands as a pitcher are perhaps more exporbitant/ bigger risk than ARod’s are. How many teams are going to be beating down the door to pay that and give up talent? This is no knock on Santana or his talent. He’s talent however does get diluted by his cost in money and talent.
So sad.
ESPN radio update said that the Yankees have said that Joba and Cano will not be included in any deal. I’m still convinced we could get the deal done without Hughes, but if the Steins start trying to outbid the other teams, and heaven forbid, themselves they just might get crazy and throw in Hughes. Now, that would be a mistake.
Wins and losses are the worst way one could possibly judge a pitcher.
As for those citing his ERA vs. the Indians or postseason, might I suggest learning the concept of “sample size”?
Kennedy, Cabrera, Jackson and maybe a lower-level prospect, otherwise pass.
Lots of discussion about Santana, Kazmir, Haren, Prior and others. I’m just wondering if anyone out there is looking at Bartolo Colon….haven’t heard a single rumor about him. Is it the general consensus out there that he has no gas left in the tank?
The Yankees are their own worst enemy. The “other guys” players are always soooooooo much better than their own. First of all, who else pays players over 20 million???? I think they should call the Twins bluff. Offer Kennedy, Horne and Austin Jackson but they have to take Giambi (with the yanks picking up 1/2 his salary. If they don’t budge, then the yanks can do what they always do….offer him the most $$$$ when he becomes a free agent. What people forget is, 99% of teams CAN’T give up their entire farm system AND 25 million a yr for 7yrs!!!!! HUGHES, JABA, MELKY, CANO, WANG = THE NOW AND THE NEXT GENERATION
GreenBeret7:
Agreed on the fingernail problem. That was a factor.
But there was also a lot of talk last year about the Yankees trying to making Wang a more complete pitcher, less predictable. There was a game against Boston last year where he almost didn’t throw his sinker at all, on purpose, as a strategic move to throw off the Sox.
So the nail played a part, but it was also strategic.
I’m with Pete. I don’t even want to see the Yanks trade as much as IPK, the Melkman and another kid for Santana. The key to this trade isn’t giving Minnesota a lot of good players; it’s giving Santana a lucrative, long-term contract.
The Twins are in weak bargaining position. If they don’t trade Santana this year, his value to them is small. Santana has the whip hand, because he can veto all trades and become a free agent in a year. They he can get whatever the market will bear.
We can also analyize this another way.
Team A trades for a pitcher whose own team doctor says has a shoulder that could blow out in 3-4 years. They give him a 3 year contract extension for over 30 million dollars, despite the fact he has been on the DL 7 times in his career. They trade a young SS who becomes an all star and a starting pitcher who throws a no hitter as a rookie.
In his first year with Team A, said starting pitcher gives up 40 home runs and has an ERA of almost 6 the second half of the year. Fans and media whine about the deal.
The second year, said pitcher leads the staff in wins, is a playoff monster and wins the World Series.
Would you make that trade again?
The player I am talking about is Josh Beckett.
The bottom line is, Johan Santana is an elite pitcher. I don’t care what kind of second half of last season he had, he is still an elite pitcher. Just as Beckett was when he had his second half struggles last year.
The Yankees don’t have an elite pitcher.
Is it risky? ALL transactions are risky.
However, if you want the ultimate reward (a World Series), you have to take some risks.
As “risks” go, Johan Santana is as good a risk as the Yankees can take for a pitcher.
Phil Hughes has had more injuries in his career than Johan Santana. You can’t make decisions based on what might happen injury-wise or you never pull the trigger on anything.
In addition, the price for Santana won’t be as high (in terms of players sent to Minnesota) as a lot of people think.
Mostly because few teams can afford him and Santana has a full no trade clause. That limits where the Twins send him.
As Bobcat astutely noted yesterday, the issue is simple. How much is ONE year of Johan Santana worth to the Yankees?
I say one year because, if they don’t trade for him, and he stays in Minnesota for the season, they will sign him as a free agent.
If the Yankees feel one season of Santana is worth a certain bounty, or anothe team is closing in on him, they will pay it. If not, they will pass.
murphydog,
your point is a very valid one. I don’t think this is a black or white situation. I just don’t think the market dynamics or the value proposition Santana represents is that compelling if you have to give up hughes.
To play devil’s advocate take a look at these two sets of projections for Santana over the next 5 years if you haven’t seen them. You may be surprised about what Santana’s level of expected performance is most likely to be.
http://baseballanalysts.com/ar....._reall.php
http://www.replacementlevel.co.....rough_2014
Mike K,
I was using Wang’s ‘07 postseason as a counterpoint to someone’s saying that a win’s a win and that the Twins might have started pressing in a game where their starter gave up 2 ER over 8 innings.
And, yes, I know what a sample size is. Like everything else in life, some are bigger than others.
ray,
HaHa. Thanks for the comic relief. Thinking of Barolo and his clown wig in pinstripes made me laugh. Good one.
Glad to be of service Mel!
Talking about prospects. If I recall alot of people thought Brandan Clauson was going to be something and we shouldnt have traded for Boone. How did that turn out? Or Ricky Ledee for Justice. I would rather go with a proven major league ace than potential. Hughes had a freak accident and if im not mistaken he was injured 2 years ago as well. Who knows what his carreer will turn out.
Maybe Ian is the next Moose and all this time we were looking past him to see the other 2.
My prediction- Ian Cy Young candidate in 2010
Murpheydog, I remember the Boston game and his 10 strikeout game with probably a dozen sinkers, if that. That nail was as ugly as anything I’ve seen. It certainly didn’t get better over the season. I think Eiland will be working on his pitches come spring. Also, watch for Rivera’s changeup next year.
Sunny 615,
Last I checked there were no Midges flying around the metrodome that night.
Santana has been pitching in Minnesota people. But that doesn’t matter. No one has problems adjusting to NY. Right Rocket, Unit? OK well players from Minnesota can handle NY, right Knobby?
Like I’ve been saying lets persue Scott Kazmir, and it Melky, Kennedy, Horne and Miranda or Gardner doesn’t get it done let him go..we can chase Kazmir
People need to realize Hughes isn’t Claussen or Milton or any over hyped yankee kid arm. He is the real deal. Please read the harball times article linked above
When Arod opted out,the Yankees were standing at the threshold of a new,albeit,uncertain,furture.It could have been the start of a program determined and commited to an infusion of young homegrown kids,including some free agent picks as compensation for losing our type A players.While it is true we killed a few birds with this inking,a third baseman,a righty hitter with pop,and a#4hitter for the line-up,it remains an imprudent signing.
Nor would I have re-signed Mo,or Jorge at the prices paid.Yes,it is a well deserved reward for services rendered,but at those prices,it would have been more prudent,financely(sp)and player developement wise to let some other teams pay the freight.Not that they were going anywhere else,no matter what the pundits were telling us.Now with Arod back,and the tom toms beating out an outrageous and costly tune for Johan Santana,the ransom,our prized jewels from the suddenly fertile farm system,a step backwards.A starting pitcher may be needed if Andy does not re-enlist,preferably a lefty,but if none is available,go for Dan Haren or Blanton.Sign Santana next year if he does not extend his contract where ever he may wind up.We have crossed the Rubican again with the bucks shelled out for Arod and we are again on that slippery slope of aging has beens,never weres,and piein the sky free agents.
Are you kidding me?
Pete you were absolutely wrong about Arod, and your wrong about Johan too.
I agree, don’t trade hughes, chamberlain… but by all means put a pkg together. Keep in mind, everyone talks about ‘other teams’ … Johan loves NY, so if our package is not as good as the next teams.. it’s ultimately Johan who decides where to go. So if any other team tops our package, it has absolutely no bearing!
If the Twins don’t like the package they don’t have to trade him and that works in our favor for next year.
On another note:
I posted about Ichiro and emailed you Pete, a long time ago. I believe this ball was dropped by the Yankees. Had they pursued him, he would be wearing pin stripes right now. That is a loss for sure.
The Yankees don’t need Jake Peavy. He’s not as good as Santana.
He already has shoulder issues from throwing too many sliders and is pitching in the best pitchers ballpark in baseball. Skewing his numbers quite a bit.
Also playing in a much weaker league.
If you want to cherrypick numbers, check out Peavy’s post-season numbers. They are horrific.
He is also righthanded. The Yankees have plenty of RH pitchers. They don’t have a lefty anywhere with the potential and talent of Santana.
Santana is not a power pitcher? Do some of you folks even watch games?
The guy throws 92-95 from the left side (which is bringing it), with a slider and the best changeup in the league.
He didn’t throw his slider as much last year because he was leaving it out over the plate and it was getting hit. So, he made adjustments.
The guy had ZERO run support, especially early in games. That means, you often pitch too fine and that ends up hurting you.
Just pulling out stats do not tell the whole story about anybody, especially Santana.
The guy is the best pitcher in baseball and some folks don’t want him because they THINK a prospect will be better.
The Yankees didn’t spend over 400 million dollars this off-season to rebuild or to have a team with guys they “think” can do the job. They want more assurance than that within the pitching staff.
I like the young players as much as the next guy. However, if you have a chance to get a 29 year old lefthander, who is the best pitcher in baseball, you do it.
The price? It will be whatever it takes within reason. They won’t overpay with players. When was the last trade Brian Cashman made in which he overspent with players? It doesn’t happen.
NL pitchers don’t transition well to the AL these days.
peavy is a bad idea. you want a right hander? get dan haren
Irabu’s Son (cool name as well….thanks for the compliment):
Do you really think our pitching situations is going to be that grave in 2007 that, without trading for Santana, we’re going to find ourselves in those dire straits? I’m simply not that pessimistic, nor do I think he’d single-handedly be the difference-maker.
Maybe I’m a strange guy. I’m actually willing to take steps back now to make bigger strides later. I don’t need, NY and all, to be in the World Series next year. I want to increase my chances of building another juggernaut later like we’ve been in the past. I think we stand a better chance at that by keeping our kids.
Scott Kazmir would be more difficult and potentially more costly in talent to get than Santana even though Santana is the much better pitcher.
Given Kazmir’s low salary and lack of a no trade nearly every single team in baseball could afford him and would try to get him.
Kazmir would lead to an enormous auction. And I also don’t see Tampa trading him inside the division or even trading him at all right now.
CB:
Maybe the better way to make the point is that it’s like playing cards. Sometimes you like the cards you have and sometimes you think you can do better.
The Yankees aren’t sending Joba anywhere because they can do the deal without sending him. Besides, they are in love with the guy’s speed gun ratings and control. He looks right now like a classic power pitcher.
The Sox aren’t looking to trade Buckholz because they feel they don’t have to. They don’t have the same need to upgrade the rotation that the Yankees do and with Ellsbury, Youkilis and Pedroia, they can field a WS team withouit the extra cost of Santana. They invested heavily in Beckett – - who is a proven stopper – - and in Dice-K, Buckholz is knocking on the door, they have Lester to count on and maybe Wakes if he doesn’t retire.
As for Santana’s value relative to Hughes you have to consider “WHEN” as much as “HOW HIGH.” Sure, Hughes may be one of the best pitchers in baseball in three or four years. Santana is there now and the Yankees want to win now. And while you and I might spend out money differently, the Yankees are unconcerned about overpaying for Santana. Bottom line is that it’s all just a matter of what the Steinbrenners want to do with their team and their money.
Would you rather judge a pitcher’s future chances of success by a small sample size of 34 innings with a 3.97 ERA, or would you rather judge him by the 1300+ incredible IP he’s thrown over the last 5 years? Any smart talent evaluator and GM knows that fans and media overdramatize playoff data. There just isn’t enough of a sample size to conclude anything meaningful.
But for those of you that want to do that, what’s your opinion of Wang as a pitcher? He has a 7.58 ERA in 19 postseason innings. But any Yankee fan knows that the guy is a pretty good pitcher. You are missing the point if you judge a pitcher by a handful of starts. That includes Pete’s cherrypicks of Santana vs the AL East in 2007, which includes just a 30-inning sample size. Pete also intentionally ignored Johan’s effective start and win against the Yankees.
pounder,
You’re so right on. But the Yankees can’t resist because Alex and Johan are shiny, pretty ornaments for the tree. But they had to do what they did for Mo and Jorge. They were the best FA and they’re true Yankees.
Ray the Yankees could pick him up as a bp pitcher for Alex, he could get Alex in a groove to hit homeruns.
Tampa Bay is not trading Scott Kazmir. They also aren’t trading him to the Yankees. They wanted Phil Hughes for Ty Wiggington last year. Who do you think they will want for Kazmir.
Tampa Bay has no interest in helping the Yankees. Especially since the Yankees dominate their own market. Which ticks them off to no end.
If you are worried about injuries, why would you want Kazmir? Small guy, can’t pitch more than 6 innings and has already missed starts with shoulder problems.
He is a walking ad for a significant injury.
Mel-
Great Christmas analog.
*analogy
Banking on 1 pitcher to be our salvation, @ 150 million doesn’t make much sense to me. I’d rather take our chances with the kids we have. Sell off Melky for some power and we have just as good a chance to win as we would if we waste more money on another superstar. In truth, how many more games is one elite pitcher going to get us ? Especially if the rest of the team falls as flat as it did this year.
It’s time to stand our ground and let fate determine the rest.
The Bronx Stop,
If the Yankees can get Santana without giving up Hughes, that’ll be the best Christmas present. Hopefully the Grinch (Pohlan) doesn’t steal it from us!
Fleas, it would have been rather difficult, not to mention against the rules to try enticing Suzuki with money to come to NY, since he was under contract to Seattle and signed a mid-season extention.
What makes you think the Yankees can trade Melky for “power”?
I don’t see a single team that would trade a power hitter for Melky.
That isn’t going to happen.
One reason he is even mentioned in the Santana deal is his ability to play more than on OF position and his ability to hit line drives. Something that is helpful in the Metrodome.
His asset happens to fit what the Twins are looking for. That said, without including more in a deal, the Yankees can’t acquire Santana.
In other words, Melky alone isn’t bringing back anything of value for the Yankees.
Name one? Josh Beckett. I don’t want to see Hughes go and I want to believe he’ll be as good as we all think one day, but fact is Santanna is THE BEST in the MLB.
We sucked in the playoffs because we had no ace. This solves that problem.
Andrew Marchand is reporting that the Mets are “In the Mix” for Santana because they are willing to send more players. That reminds me of Homer Simpson when he wanted to order pizza from an awful restaurant because he had a 2 x 1 coupon.
Liza – But the pizza there is horrible!
Homer – Yes…but its MORE!
murphydog,
I agree – trades are about properly weighing the probability of risks and rewards. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball hands down. There’s now way to knock him.
You have to discount Hughes potential much more than Santana’s performance.
Alternatively, you have to somewhat discount Santana’s performance because of his contract demands and no trade. There isn’t an enormous market of potential suitors.
One thing I do think however is that people aren’t taking into consideration Santana’s potential for declining a bit over the next five year.
By this I don’t mean he won’t be good five years from now. But there is a fixed probablity that Santana goes from being an elite pitcher to a very good one.
The Yankees don’t need a very good pitcher. They need an elite one.
Comparisons with the trades made for Pedro and Beckett are off a bit because both Pedro and Beckett were 25 when the trades were made.
There is a big difference between trading for a pitcher who is 25 vs. 29. A 25 year old pitcher will be moving into the full peak of his career. A 29 year old pitcher may be at the absolute peak of the performance he will attain.
I want the yankees to get santana. But they aren’t going to be getting the santana as he was from ages 25-27 when he pitched to a ridiculous 158 ERA+. I think he’ll be great over the next 5 years but not as good as he was between 25-28.
Lets say the Angels pull the trigger and land Santana. Why not use our prospects and go after Cabrera at first. It would probably take Melky and Cano. Possibly another b level prospect. We keep our big 3 and we strenghen our offense that much more.
So it is Quantity over quality? For the Mets but they want our best prospects. I say we make the offer of
Okay Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard, Kei Igawa, Kevin Reece, Matt Desalvo, Eric Duncan. I wonder if that can get it done.
OK so Johan struggled in 30+ innings against the non-yankee Al East teams in 2007.
But in 2006 his AL East ERA was 3.23 in 39 IP with 42 K’s.
The point is, there are wild fluctuations in data when you are basing it on a small number of innings.
S.o.S.
Cano is untouchable for Santana, so there’s no way they’d give him up for Cabrera. Think Miggy’s working out this offseason? He’s the hot ticket this winter.
Why? Why? Why? Why do people want to include Cano in trades?? What exactly does a second baseman have to do to secure his spot? If Cano continues his pace Melky will be giving the induction speech in Cooperstown for him.
Can’t believe I just read the phrase “True Yankees” in a conversation. Hope that was a joke.
amen
I assume hes untouchable because his offense isnt being replaced for a pitcher. But for a top notch hitter like Cabrera, I cant see them not biting.
Jennifer – If you throw in Rasner and Karstens it is a closed deal.
Pete,
Great thread…I would really like to see BC stick to his plan. I see a lot of stories that the Yankees will be lucky if just one of the big 3 pan out… Anyone who writes that, does not know about the late 60s Baltimore teams, The 80s Braves the 90s A’s These 3 kids all look for real and in my opinion will be better pitchers in 2 or 3 years than a 32 year old Johan Santana. besides there are a lot of aces on the trading block right now in Kasmir,Peavy,Harren,Bedard The Yankees should explore all avenues before selling the farm for one pitcher.
SJ44,
I am usually in complete agreement with you. However on this one I would say no-way. Beckett was 25 when the Redsox traded for him. They gave up some quality and lost a player who I feel is right now the best player in the National League. However, I still do that deal because they gave up only one stud not 3 or 4.
There is an excellent chance that by the end of next season Hughes is Beckett’s equal and 6 years younger. These 3 kids can become the cornerstone of another dynasty.
I think Santana is a fantastic pitcher…
But I am totally in agreement with Pete on this…
Pitching is way too fickle to dish out $100 million for one guy — Zito busted, Brown played out the rest of his contract in the hospital getting back surgery, and Hampton…well Hampton has a permanent residence in 3 or 4 different clinics by this point.
Not that Santana has shown an injury issues really — but unless the threat is that he’s going to the Red Sox for Lester and not Bucholz or Ellsbury… I say this isn’t a GREAT move for the Yanks. It’ll probably be a good one — but I’m wary. Melky plays a good CF – he may never turn his offensive numbers into big time level stuff, but he might?
Another thing people neglect to consider re: Santana.
If he goes to the Yankees, the additional run support probably enables him to pitch fewer innings.
When you are in a ton of 1-0, 2-1 games, as the Twins were with Santana, its much tougher to pitch in those situations.
As Al Leiter always says, its not the number of pitches you throw per game, its the stress of the pitches (given the game situations) you throw in a game.
More runs=fewer stressful starts for Santana, enabling him to be fresh for the post-season.
How exactly do you go about replacing both Cano and Melky in your proposal?
With Santana for Hughes and prospects, trading Melky for power, etc., we’re going to have the best PS3 MLB 2K7 team ever, while continuing to be the biggest, most expensive bunch of mercenaries to lose in the first round of the playoffs to better sum of its homegrown parts.
Name the Pitcher
who had an ERA of 4.07 in the second half of the season?
who gave up 101 hits in 95 innings pitched during that second half?
Who had a 5.45 ERA versus teams in the AL east last year?
Answer
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike R, maybe it’s because some people here don’t want to see it in Cano, I wouldn’t trade that kid for nothing I’m sorry a HOF 2B doesn’t come by that much in baseball, and one that can challenge the batting title year after year, jesus just thinking when his playe discipline gets to it’s peak do people realize he is the # 3 hitter in waiting followed by Alex Rodriguez for the later years…
How could I forget them! See we over load them with cheap players! All have played in the majors with the exception of Eric, so they are all ml ready prospects. Beat that Mets!!
Okay Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard, Kei Igawa, Kevin Reece, Matt Desalvo, Eric Duncan, Rasner and Karstens
OK, if the Yankees actually give up 4 or 5 players for Johan Santana they are FUC^ING CRAZY:
http://www.aarongleeman.com/20.....7094257016
Good article though, really breaks down the Yankees farm system and those with high, medium, and average upside. There are quite a few of them.
Don’t forget Anibal Sanchez. Just because he’s hurt doesn’t mean he’s not very good. Add the low A propspect they sent (I’m blanking on the name) and you have yourself a similar package.
Murphy’s Eleven,
I never said the Yankees shouldn’t rebuild the pen. It’s imperative. I just think that starting pitching is more important to any team.
Starters will usually give a team around 950 innings a year. The bullpen.. maybe half that.
So, by my estimation, the bullpen is roughly half as important as starting pitching.
Brandon – I read a couple of days ago that you are 1/2 latino. Where from? I am from PR.
Saying that putting Miguel Cabrera one first and removing Cano for offense isn’t going to amount to much more offense next year. maybe 10-15 RBIs, 5-10 homers. Same batting average. How about the lose of defense. You want to put a below average third baseman at first base, a position that he’s never played before, even in the minors, and remove the 2nd baseman who turns a double play better than any other? This is progress?
Here’s another set of stats to consider. These are for the people who keep saying things like “Hughes’ numbers in the minors were great but Santana has done that in the majors”.
If we’re going to include Santana’s ML numbers to compare the two of them, you have to go with their rookie years as a comparison. Even though that’s a small sample to scrutinize, how is it fair to Hughes to compare his numbers to a 8-season veteran who has had time to develop?
Here’s their respective stats from their rookie years:
Santana: 2-3,6.49 ERA,86 IP,102 H,64 R,11 HR,54 BB,64 K
Hughes: 5-3,4.46 ERA,72 IP, 64 H,39 R, 8 HR,29 BB,58 K
Based strictly on that, which pitcher would you want?
So if someone wants to say Hughes simply “might” become a great pithcer, you could certainly make the case that Santana was once a pitcher who had plenty to prove when he was at the same stage of his career as Hughes.
Look, I would love to have Santana pitching for the Yankees, but not at the cost of giving up Hughes. And before somebody has a conniption fit and reiterates for the 509th time that you have to give up something good to get something good – that is a given. Any of us who are realistic about trades know that already. I think that too many people are blinded by the prospect of getting Santana that they have forgotten why Phil was the crown jewel of our farm system to begin with. At this time last year, people were so adamant that Hughes not be traded for anyone, period. But now that a 2-time CY winner could possibly be had, it’s ok to trade him simply because you have to give up something to get something.
While there is no guarantee of Hughes having a career like Santana’s, the odds are still pretty good. And to be fair, there’s no guarantee that Santana will continue to dominate the way he did over a three-year span.
On that note, Santana was not just dominant from 2004-2006, but he was also incredibly consistent. His stats over those three seasons were so similar that it’s just sick. That’s why his numbers from 2007 bother me so much. He lost more than twice as many games as he did the previous year, and his W-L was almost equal at 15-13. His ERA jumped from 2.77 to 3.33. He gave up close to a dozen more HR’s than he did the previous year and more than in ANY year of his career, rookie years included. His walk totals increased while his K numbers decreased.
While that season may prove to have been an aberration, the only way we are going to know is by what he does over the next 2-3 years. Is that a smart risk to take with 6 yrs and $150M at stake? Not in my book.
Check out that article that was linked to from here yesterday regarding $100M pitchers (and Pete referred to in his post in this thread). I don’t want another Hampton or Kevin Brown liability on this team while Phil Hughes could be racking up impressive seasons for another team.
CB:
Agreed that Santana will eventually plateau and decline. How steep is anyone’s guess. But even moving ahead to his March birthday, in three years he’s only 32, in 5 years he’s 34. Barring injury, we may see his plateau with some adjustments to age, rather than his decline, for most of his time as a Yankee.
As a lefty however, even in decline the effect might be less noticeable IMO. If he goes from being one of the most dominant pitchers at 29 to being “only” one of the best lefties by age 34, I think I’d take that happily.
For me the focus is the next 3 to 5 years. For probably three more years Hughes will still be on the approach, not at the summit, of his ability. So, to me the Santana deal is purely about “win now.”
Pete:
I just read your post from yesterday just now. I would like to inform you, I have not posted on this blog since last night. Any postings by any other “Millers†today were not me. I hope it was not me who you banned or are planning to ban because of some other A-Hole taking my username.
Also, I do not post on any other forums. My loyalty lies with the Lohud and you Petey. Just wanted to clear that up.
Damon and Betimet. If not and want to go get someone, then Loretta for 1 year(till Hudson is a free agent)and either Camaron or Jones for nomore than 2 years.
Here’s where we see if the Yankees’ new-found commitment to building from within is real or not. Going after Santana is foolish in my book. We’d give up too much. I could live without Melky, but he alone isn’t enough to get Santana. Hughes is the real deal.
Its awfully tough to look at 3 young pitchers as the cornerstone for another dynasty.
The odds are stronger that one will be great, one will be injured, and one will be a non-factor.
When was the last time a team had 3 young pitchers as a cornerstone of a dynasty? Probably the Braves in the Early-90’s. That’s a long time ago.
Even the Yankees dynasty of the 90’s consisted of only one homegrown starter (Pettitte).
Too many variables with young pitchers these days. Its why its tough to be “too young” in your rotation.
What the Yankees have going for them is their pitching depth in the system.
For example, nobody talks about Dan McCutcheon. However, if the Yankees were a second division team, he would be in the rotation in 2008.
McCutcheon would be the #1 pitching prospect on at least half of the teams in baseball. That’s how good he is.
They also have Humberto Sanchez, who is throwing in Tampa, possibly ready by May. Sanchez was the Joba Chamberlain of the 2006 Futures Game. Another big-time arm.
My point is, if the Yankees include Hughes in a Santana deal, they do have the depth within the system to absorb it.
Testing
“There is an excellent chance that by the end of next season Hughes is Beckett’s equal and 6 years younger.”
Really?
Pete:
I just read your post just now. I would like to inform you, I have not posted on this blog since last night. Any postings by any other “Millers†today were not me. I hope it was not me who you banned or are planning to ban because of some other A-Hole taking my username.
Santana also makes a lot more sense if/if not Pettitte signs with the Yankees for $16 million…
If he decides to retire.. I think the push gets a little heavier from the Yanks.
Also, I do not post on ANY other forums. My loyalty lies with the Lohhud and you Petey. Just wanted to throw that out there.
the real risk I see is this, what are the chances Santana hits the market next year if we don’t trade for him now? If the changes are very good that he’ll be a Free Agent next year, why would we give Minn more than a SMALL handful of B prospects just for one year?
If the chances are not very good that he won’t be traded this year, then I can understand being more aggressive. But, as SJ said, given the money he’ll want and the limited number of bidders, the price should not be as high as people think and I for one would very much like that price NOT to include Hughes or Joba.
I’ve said it before, Hughes was the “Untouchable” prior to Joba arriving and many baseball people still say he has the bigger upsdie/brighter future of the two phenoms. That argument could probably swing both ways, but the bottom line is these are elite prospects that should be kept and home grown.
Think of this for a possible rotation: Santana, Hughes, Joba, Wang, and my 2 year old niece. we win 5 out of 5 games every week, an .800 winning percentage. Pretty good, and my niece is getting pretty strong.
Also, I do not post on any other blog. My loyalty lies with the Lohud and that big teddy bear of a man we call Pete Abraham.
Just wanted to clear that up.
SJ,
The point was not to bank on one guy to turn this team around. Melky is not an elite player. He has little power to be an outfielder on this team, he’s still AAAA in my book. Let’s utilize what we have on the farm rather than giving up what we have in pitching. Out of all the pitchers we have one or two will help us win. We’ve already tied up a lot of money in Arod, no matter how good he is or will be.
Yes, we need better pitching but at what cost ?
I still say let the kids have a crack at it.
Miller he knows, someone was impersonating me and SJ44 as well. Pete took care of it as soon as he was alerted.
*** 4 out of 5 games every week….
Miller – Welcome back. I assume your are safe. Your posts are showing.
Chris-
“Think of this for a possible rotation: Santana, Hughes, Joba, Wang, and my 2 year old niece. we win 5 out of 5 games every week, an .800 winning percentage. Pretty good, and my niece is getting pretty strong.”
Maybe more like 4 out of every 5 games a week…Lets remember– Joba isn’t exactly proven yet!!!! lolol
Mike R:
They are showing on and off. Sometimes they are posted sometimes they are not.
I just want to clear up the fact that I dont post on any other blogs, my loyalty lies with the Lohud and Petey.
Murphydog,
I think this is where we both just disagree a bit. I don’t discount your points and they’re well laid out.
It’s the classic question of how much do you absolutely try to win right now?
Giving up Hughes to me represents an extreme version of trying to win right now.
I personally don’t think that trading Hughes for the increased probability of winning right now with Santana is worth it.
Even if the yankees get santana and give up hughes they aren’t a lock to win. Honestly, in a short playoff series against the the Sox i think the yankees would still be less likely to win because of the level of sheer dominance Beckett has shown in the playoffs.
Santana vs. Beckett in the playoffs- great match up but I still take Beckett. He’s shown a level of performance in the playoffs that Santana hasn’t. Not a knock on santana – just their body of work. To me however that’s a problem given the yankees level of expectations and the cost.
I have PR from my moms side, DR from my dad..born in NY spent most my first part of the years in D.R. , I’m like a mutt.. and grew up close to ballplayers like Furcal,Betemit and Hanley Ramirez etc., I knew about Pujols before he was in the minor leagues through my family’s side ..long story
Jennifer:
When was this guy impersonating everyone and what was he saying?
1.he is one of the top 5 hitters in baseball
2.he played 3rd base and the transition to first is easier to make.
3.turn double plays? You cant be serious. Tell me hes gold clove caliber but hes the best at turning 2. How many d.p.does he turn a game that another second baseman doesnt make?
Folks I like Cano, but if you told me I could have a Cabrera or Pujols for him, I pull the trigger.
And Pete I also want you to know that I do not post on any other blogs, My loyalty lies with the lohud and you, you big hunk od teddy bear.
Miller, is this really you ?
Awesome Brandon. I love DR. I do busines over there all the time.
Miller – The guy was just being an @$$ and insulting people mostly.
Fake Miller,
Did you mean to say “My loyalty lies with the lohud and you, you big hunk odd teddy bear.”?
We have our Post Seaon Pitcher his name is Pettitte if he doesn’t retire.You can’t have Chidn-Ming Wang as your Ace even in the playoffs.Unless you are rebuilding you can’t go into the season with just three rookies.Too many questions and injury prone pitchers.
VOII-
You point out a valid difference in trading for Beckett vs trading for Santana. Becekett was younger and due to the lack of service time the Sox only had to invest $30 million to lock him up for 4 years. But, money doesn’t really matter to the Yankees does it? (As an aside I like hopw everyone here gripes about it as if it is their own money).
But your comparison of Hughes to Beckett is hogwash. When the Sox traded for Beckett, he had already been dominating at the major league level for three years, including on the biggest stage of all in Game 7 of the world series. Hughes has flashed that in only a handful of innings. In addition, Beckett is a significant step above stuff-wise with a 95+ mph fastball in the late innings and a sharper curve.
I love me some Phil Hughes but there is a reason the Yanks have him below Joba on their protect list. 94 mph just isn’t the same as 98.
And one other reason that hasn’t been mentioned here for going all out on Santana. If we don’t, the Sox could get him for a package of Lester, Crisp and Lowrie. And then lock him up for 6 years+ with the money coming off the books on Schilling, Manny and Clement. How does the prospect of 5 years staring at a rotation of Santana-Beckett-Buchholz-DiceK look to all of you?
Looks like the Miller impersonator is back.
School must have extended recess today.
so what are some other options if we don’t go after santana?? i’ve read that teams like the mets are pursuing players like haren or dontrelle, what about going after players like that? i’m assuming the cost for them is far less than johan, just an idea
I don’t think the Yankees should trade one single position player prospect. That means I want to see an OF of Jackson, Melky and Tabata with Cano at 2b. Payroll has a limit and the youth movement needs to be kept in tact. We need energy and athleticism on the field, especially in the outfield.
Joba Chamberlain is the only trade chip that would allow the Yankees to keep all of their cant’-miss position players that balance the budget. I think Chamberlain has more CURRENT trade value than Hughes but Hughes is actually more valuable since he’s more proven as a starter. If the Yankees insiders view Joba as a reliever than they would be smart to stress a desire to keep him as a starter.
Joba can be sold high as a starter because he has a track record as a minor league starter and scouts saw a sneak peak of his stuff in the best case scenario with Joba pitching in short relief stints. But when it boils down to starting, Ian Kennedy had a lower ERA than Joba in the minors. Joba’s value as a starter is inflated because of his ML stint as a well-rested power reliever.
I think Joba Chamberlain + Brett Gardner is better than anything the other teams can offer. Furthermore, I think replacing a closer is cheaper than signing 2 OF’s plus 1 or 2 more pitchers, not to mention the 150 million to be payed to Johan Santana. If Joba’s seen as a closer, just sign K-Rod or groom Humberto Sanchez over the next 3 years of Mariano Rivera’s contract.
People who view Joba as a can’t-miss ace are biased by Joba’s stint as a reliever. Hopefully the Twins would buy into the same skewed vision of him. Hughes is more untouchable, especially when you consider Joba hit a wall in college his junior year. He fell past the first round because of injury concerns/tired arm. Maybe he’s not a durable long-term career starter like Clemens. Maybe he’s the next Kerry Wood.
I’m a big proponent of getting Santana. But I’ve come around on this to this extent, and this extent only: let’s keep Hughes. Given Minny’s lack of leverage, I don’t think we’ll have to give up Hughes to get him.
The Mets are a joke; they’d love to overpay for Johan but they just don’t have the horses to get him. Even if they throw 5 players at Minny, we can offer 5 better players w/o even giving up one of the big three. Melky, Horne, Marquez, Jackson, and McCutchen. How would the Mets match that?!
I also don’t believe the Sox are in it. They’re just trying to scare us into giving up Hughes. I don’t see them giving up Buchholz and Ellsbury. Theo and Tito would have nightmares thinking about Crisp playing CF for them next year.
I’d still like to be aggressive about getting Johan, but Kennedy and Melky + 1 should be sufficient. And anyone who doesn’t want to trade Melky for Johan is crazy.
I know why the Yankees are inquiring about Santana, but if it’s more than a general discussion, I don’t really understand their impatience. By the trade deadline this summer we’re going to have a lot clearer idea about all the young players being discussed here, Hughes, IPK, Horne, Tabata, Jackson. Some of those guys are going to look like the real deal, some of them aren’t. But with so much talent coming near the big leagues, it seems to me that the Yankees are much much better off finding out who’s who. Yeah Santana is a terrific talent who might — might — put the Yankees over the top. But there’s a very good chance that guys who approach his talent are already in the organization at a much cheaper price. Plus there are other established pitchers who are going to be available — Santana might be off the market, but Sabathia, Kazmir, Haren and Bedard might be on. The Yankees have already signalled to Santana that they’ll be very interested if he makes it to Free Agency.
With any luck he understands that, rejects a trade and waits to see what the Yankees have to say come next winter.
Pete, might be time for that registration you’ve mentioned….
Im not the fake Miller. I know I cant prove it to you over the internet and I dont know if its even worth it. Im thinking about just changing names and starting fresh anyway.
Harden, sure, if the price is right. Dontrelle I don’t trust in the AL.
they need to require registration here
“Johan Santana is a bad postseason pitcher”
Myth.
He’s had 4, count em………4 Post Season starts.
1 of them you would classify as bad. 3 of them were good/great. One of those include a 7 Inning shut out of the 04 Yankees.
To say he’s a lousy postseason pitcher is unintelligent. He simply hasn’t pitched enough to make a judgement.
Chris n.y.
I assume you meant Haren. But for the right price I would shoot for the injury prone Harden as well. Wouldnt cost much and when healthy is flat out scary. Sheets as well.
Vinny,
I can see you point. But, I think title teams have a mix between veterans and younger players, with a strong farm system to back it up.
By trading for Santana, the Yankees wouldn’t be sacrificing youth in the deal.
For example, let’s say the Yankees get Santana for Hughes, Cabrera, Alan Horne and Jose Tabata.
Let’s examine what that does to the team.
They probably go with Johnny Damon in center, with Brett Gardner as his backup. Gardner is a kid who can help the Yankees. He’s young, fast, great baseball instincts, the kind of kid you want on the bench. He will help the Yankees win games as a 4th OF.
They will have Austin Jackson in AA/AAA as the heir apparent for CF. Perhaps as early as 2009. If Jackson is included in the Santana deal, then Tabata takes this role. No dropoff in talent.
That absorbs the loss of Cabrera.
The rotation consists of: Santana, Wang, Pettitte (who I think will return), Chamberlain, Mussina/Kennedy.
They would have Dan McCutcheon (AA/AAA) and Humberto Sanchez in the wings. Perhaps both being ready to contribute in some fashion by mid-season.
That not only absorbs the loss of Horne but, it also makes losing Hughes more palatable.
Their rotation would have Wang (28), Santana (29), Chamberlain (22) and Kennedy (23) among the top 6 starters. If you add in McCutcheon (24) and Sanchez (25) to the mix, you can see there is still youth and quality within the rotation.
They also will have Andrew Brackman, a kid with enormous upside, ready in 2009.
In 2009, guys like Dellin Betances, Zach McAllister and Christian Garcia may be the next wave of high ceiling pitching prospects ready to make a move.
Its why I believe the Yankees can absorb losing Hughes and not suffer any long term damage to their system.
I also DO NOT want to give Santana 6 or 7 years. No pitcher is worth a contract that long, no-one. I wouldn’t give “iron man” Barry Zito a 7 year contract at half the price he got. At any time, they can suffer an injury that can either end their career or screw with their delivery enough to take away their effectiveness.
He’s the best pitcher in the game, but as Hank said, pitchers get paid less because they’re more fragile. Giving him 20-25 million a year breaks that rule.
Thank the Giants for being such suckers with the Zito contract. Otherwise, we’d be talking more like 15-20M/year for the best pitcher in the game.
We need registration with unique names.
Miller word for word what did you me and you agree when it came to Arod, remember we robbed it, what was it ?
Master Wangkee said “People who view Joba as a can’t-miss ace are biased by Joba’s stint as a reliever.”
But ti also might have somethign to do with this:
88.1/135/27
That is Joba’s IP/Ks/BB as a 21 year old STARTER last year in A/AA/AAA where he was one of the youngest players at each level. 13.8 K/9 and 5 K/BB as a starter is sick.
Point…
He’s not a proven playoff pitcher… and I certainly don’t want to trade high level prospects for a guy who is going to go 6innings and give up 5runs in the playoffs when his regular season ERA is 2.40… THat would totally defeat the purpose.
I think taking chances on Santana going to free agency is worth keeping all the prospects… UNLESS, Boston gets seriously involved. I swear to God, if they somehow get Santana without losing Ellsbury or Buccholz or both – that would be absolutely ridiculous…might as well hand them a WS trophy in April.
SOS, yes, Haren… thank you.
Brandon I dont remember.
All I know is that I posted the Arod Info I got and told everyone to take it with a grain of salt and that I asked everyone if they wanted to here it anyway and they said yes. And this whole thing thing just got blow way out of proportion. People Kept impersonating me, when the fact of the matter is is that I have been posting on this blog for a long time.
SJ, and there is a draft in 08 that they can pick what they need. I said this before, the before he drafted these players are still in place. They can still keep drafting good quality players
The Yankees don’t see Chamberlain as untouchable because of his job as a relief pitcher. He is untouchable because he was also untouchable as a starter last season in the minors.
Nobody touched him for almost all of his minor league starts. He has been more dominating than Phil Hughes as a starting pitcher.
That’s not a knock to Hughes. Its a testimony to just how good Chamberlain has been.
Since his turn in the Hawaiian Fall League last year to his time with the Yankees, his ERA is 1.68 for almost 160 innings. That’s just crazy!
He is the better prospect. He has 4 pitches he can throw for strikes. Hughes is not there, from a developmental standpoint, yet.
That’s why Chamberlain is untouchable in any deal.
If you want to talk about trends:
Eliminating his six appearances in relief, Santana has a 2.98 ERA in his five postseason starts and a 1.35 ERA in his three starts since 2004.
the guy has a 1.17 era at yankee stadium… The yankees have a pretty decent lineup…
stats taken from
http://www.realgmbaseball.com/.....n_santana/
Miller – How did you get that information. Who does your friend work for?
Greetings, I’ve got time for a couple of posts. Here’s some reaction to some of your posts and a general update:
1) I’ll start with my standard disclaimer: What you read in the media is what you are allowed to read in the media. The “leaks” are purposeful; the posturing and positioning of other teams is a standard by which all teams operate. The real information isn’t made public until it’s supposed to be.
The Yankees would be very happy to move Melky. His perceived value is at its apex. He doesn’t project as high as others and he is very much a product of the city he plays in.
2) All teams have a plan. They are all based on a different set of circumstances. Bill Smith is trying to parlay his lousy MLB roster and his terrific MiLB pitching stable into something competitive and his biggest assets are available. He’s got to keep all the balls in the air on Santana (with his no-trade clause), his own pitching prospects and Joe Nathan. He is trying to turn all of that into a lot more. He is doing the best he can with what he has and I expect he’ll make the Twins more competitive in 2008 than many expect him to. The pieces he gets for Santana will likely be driven by what he gets elsewhere, as Santana will bring the largest number of bodies. Don’t read that incorrectly; whomever he gets will be good players.
3) The Mets are not “in the mix” for Santana. They are looking for some “back page” and some ratings (it’s still “Sweeps” month). They want Haren and Blanton. They will dump the farm for both of them. Minaya and Randolph have to win.. NOW.
4) The Twins are trying to draw the two LA teams into the mix. Logical, but not happening so far.
5) There is another team poking around, but not really a player. And not from Boston.
6) Chamberlain and Cano are not going anywhere. Never were.
7) The Yankees plan has never been to utilize their farm system exclusively for themselves. Cashman sees the “chips” as just that… trading opportunities. That has long been his publicly stated position and hasn’t changed. When players like Cabrera and Santana become available, the wise money ALWAYS goes with the established star. ALWAYS. These are the opportunities that the “chips” are there for.
9) As far as the pieces the Twins would want from the Yankees, I can tell you that some may surprise some of you, but they are no surprise to the Twins or the Yankees. They both have terrific scouting departments and know who has what.
10) Lastly, remember that this is all about how much Smith can ransom from the Yankees for the one year window that he has to bargain with. Santana prefers one place at one price.
Haha green beret you would really rather have Cano on your team than Miguel Cabrera?? Miguel Cabrera is an amazing amazing hitter. Cano is really good, but Cabrera is going to be a hall of famer. Come on, that’s silly!
com’on man if this is you, how can you forget something like that, Arod in NY, how he gets in trouble, how he didn’t want to leave how the next 10 yrs. will be like or should be like through the fans, we came to the conclusion “It’s just …
Untouchables
Joba, Hughes, Cano, Action.
I agree with Pete’s trade, take it or leave it. We know Phil and Joba can pitch in the majors, I am very leary of trading either of them even if it is for Johan. Plus 6 years at 25! 25 million for a 34 year old pitcher!
I Hope Cashman and Hank see your post Peter. I DON’T WANT SANTANA!!!!
I’m sorry but we need a lefty, I say Santana is the answer.
Its just Alex being Alex.
I heard the Mets are looking at Sean Chacon.
The Mets are only getting into the Johan sweepstakes to drive up the price on the Yankees, and I hope they don’t fall for it.
Alright forget about all that, I want to talk baseball.
Bobcat,
Good morning. Thanks for the reality check. I found point #9 especially reassuring.
Yeah I’m sure Cash and Steinbrenner read this blog lol.
Mike I think the responce sealed it.
OK I would part with Kennedy (for an other pitcher) and a few pitching prospects(which thankfully we have a lot). But what are you going to do in the outfield?????(all we got now is 32+ [almost finished]outfielders).
Miller, it is you !!! damn man that took you awhile !
send your email to Pete so we know it’s you from now on
Pass on Santana if the cost is too high. To high includes Hughes, cano, or Tabata.
if they can get him for IPK, and Cabrera and 2nd tier, maybe… FOr all of you who think playing Damon in CF or adding Rowand will make everythig fine you are reaming.. as others have said it just continues the team of all star mentallity which has not worked.
I say wait 1 yr. for Santana to be a FA and then pay him a ton.. Traded the teams prospects has not worked out and probably will not in the future especially if they tie up $100+ mill in a 29 yr old pitcher.
they are fine as is.. Teams all need an ace but getting them is really impossible or too expensive..
Sj I disagree with you totally. Hughes has special talent and so does Joba, IPK does not.
JUST SAY NO TO TRADING THE YOUNG STUDS.
NO NO NO
pete-
This is why we all read this site. You cover everything so well, even the times when you’re wrong (AROD situation).
There’s a big big reason pitchers don’t get the contracts that position players get. THEY’RE TOO FRAGILE.
I said it yesterday, Santana fits the model of a soon to be 31 yo pitcher with shoulder problems. He is going to tear his labrum, it’s only a matter of time, physics and anatomy. He is too small and throws too hard.
If the Yanks give up Hughes, that should be it at the MLB level. No Melky in that deal. IPK and Melky is a good deal too. They can have 1or2 A-AAA position players they want depending.
It’s wishful thinking to expect the Yankees to get Santana for just Kennedy, Melky, and one other prospect. Even if that seriously is the best offer the Ztwins get, then they will just keep him and wait till closer to the trade deadline when the contending teams might be more desperate. Don’t forget the Twins also have Liriano. he and Santana can keep that team in contention for 2008 so they won’t rish to trade Santana right now if the package isn’t elite. Face it, if you want Johan you have to give up Hughes, Melky, and 2 others.
“Yeah I’m sure Cash and Steinbrenner read this blog lol.”
wierder things have happened on the internets, ask John Mackey
Oh and about a lefty I’m assuming ANDY PETTIT comes back(PLease Andy Please) If not maybe try Bedard or Kazmir(if the Rays are willing to trade him)
trit,
Cash is too busy, but I can picture Hank chain-smoking while reading the blog. Seriously, Pete’s already acknowledged that the Yankees read EVERYTHING. They have their own little spiders that reach out into the far recesses of the internet. But seriously, why wouldn’t the Yankees keep tabs of one of the top Yankee blogs?
I agree that given the depth of right handed pitching the yankees have they could “absorb” the loss of Hughes.
However, they have only two pitcher with number one starter potential that aren’t seriously injured or have pitched above short season ball: Chamberlain and Hughes.
The second level yankee pitchers are all very good – they would cushion the loss of hughes but can’t make up for it.
Hey trit if thats the case than I say I DON’T NEED HIM!
Anyone hear anything today?
Joe Nathan is also on the block, P.S. Newark Star Ledger is starting to piss me off, IDK why the Yakees should want Rowand
Hey Hank if you read this post. Please don’t trade Hughes I love to watch that kid pitch. Besides he has great potentiols Remember the Game he pitched in Texas! And look at his September.
Is Simmons nuts? 1-the Sox would never do that. 2-Minny would pounce on that in a nano-second.
They wont trade any of the two to an interdivision team. Let alone the Yankees.
OK sure there could be small fry people employed by the Yankees looking at this blog. But I hope Cash and Steinbrenner have better ways to spend their time. Especially Cashman he should be trying to improve the team, not reading this blog. There are far better sources out there for improving the Yankee team than what Peter Abraham and a few fans have to say.
(Yankees) damn I need to focus on work and this at the same time
Well, Luke, my friend, what about young Anna Lee?
bobcat, you stated yesterday that Santana was driving the bus and would only go to one team, If so, why then would the Twins try to bring the two LA clubs if in fact Santana prefers the NYY?
I heard on the radio that Rowland is close to re-signing with the white soxs.
Bobcat – What position does the surprise player play? SP or OF?
ThatWasMe, this is a very easy question to answer, so that the Yankees overbid against themselves
Jennifer – I read that Rowand priced himself out of the White Sox’s range.
HIP HIP !!!!!
ThatWasMe:
I’ll use Torii Hunter as an example: Torii Hunter was not even thinking about the Angels until they opened their wallet. So, the Twins’ thinking is that if Santana gets blown away by the amount of the extension, he may be “okay” with going to LA. It’s about trying to pry some leverage out of this situation, that currently isn’t there.
Jennifer,
Dang Kenny Williams (did we mention him yesterday?)is being muy aggresivo. They may actually be decent this year.
But as someone pointed out yesterday the Bobby Abreau can get in touch with Johan and talk. Bobby can find out where Johan is looking to go and where he will block.
There are far far better ways for Cashman to spend his time improving the Yankee team than reading what some beat writer and fans have to say. I’m sure the Yankees have some lower-wage employees fishing around the internet but there is no way that Brian Cashman and Hank Steinbrenner are reading this.
If Brian Cashman was a strong follower of this blog then ARod would be gone, Mattingly would be the manager, Cairo would still be here, and Wang would be promoted as the greatest pitcher of all-time.
Bobcat, Can the Yanks get Santana without giving up Hughes? A simple yes or no will do.
Bobcat- is the surprise player Matsui?
Mike:
The Twins are looking to beef up their farm system positionally. The Yankees have some players that fit that bill and are on the lists that have been exchanged.
To answer the next unasked question: Several lists have been exchanged that encompass different combinations.
If the LA teams get involved the entire dynamics would change. They quality of position players they have would be difficult to match.
But given their need for hitting would either commit that much money for another pitcher? Neither owner seems that thrilled about going over $20 million a year.
Also, why would santana not go exactly where he wants?
I can see why the twins would make every effort to get the angels/ dodgers involved but I don’t think they can force that issue.
Captain:
Yes.
Trit,
Of course they have an intern reading stuff on the web. Cash is universally loved here, but can you imagine that poor intern trying to censor the stuff about Hank when making his reports? “Uhhh, They love you, Mini-Boss! Nothing but good things.”
mel, I just looked at the white soxs message board for confirmation and it looks like the wfan was wrong. Supposedly they are light years apart on money.
Can you please tell me that the surprise player/players are Pavano and Giambi. That would make my year.
trit
November 28th, 2007 at 1:19 pm
Haha green beret you would really rather have Cano on your team than Miguel Cabrera?? Miguel Cabrera is an amazing amazing hitter. Cano is really good, but Cabrera is going to be a hall of famer. Come on, that’s silly
_________________________________________________________
Yeah…ha, ha, ha. Cano has more value to the Yankees as a second baseman than Miguel Cabrera will as a butcher on defense or strictly as a DH. Cano has a chance to be a GG, batting title winner with 25-30 homer power. Cabrera’s bat isn’t going to make up that much more of a difference, not even facoring in the massive cost differential, along with paying for another 2nd baseman and a pitcher.
Not saying Cabrera won’t make the HOF at his rate, but, at Cano’s rate as a 2nd baseman, he stands a pretty fair shot at passing Morgan and Sandberg’s numbers. Where is their residence, again?
What about Corey Patterson to replace Melky for a year? He wouldn’t cost us any compensation, he hit .270, was 4th in the AL in steals, and plays a gold glove OF.
Adam: No.
CB: I indicated they were TRYING to engage the LA teams. I would too.
Captain,
LOL. We’ve asked Bobcat to blink, honk, and reply with yes or no. I would ask him to give his messages with Morse code, but I can’t read it!
Mel is right. The Sox won’t trade both Bucholtz and Lester….that would be like the Yankees trading both Hughes and Kennedy in a deal for Santana.
Bobcat,
Can a deal be made without the big 3 and/or Cano?
Awesome Bobcat! You are bringing the beef as usual. Thanks for the good news.
Can’t be Matsui. He has a full no trade clause and the Twins won’t be paying 13 million a year for anybody.
I got a question for you. I know CJ Henry isn’t a great prospect anymore because he can’t play SS but how did he already become a free agent if he was only drafted in 2005? Why didn’t the Phillies hold onto him? There had to be room in there organization somewhere to let him develop as an outfielder right?
Just say NO to Santana.
SOS – I’m no Bobcat, but I doubt we could land Santana without giving up one of the big 3. Cano was never considered. (That part was direct from Bobcat from a previous post)
“Pete? If he’s on par with Moose at the same age, our net gain over 6 years by losing IPK & Melky for Santana would be little if nothing.”
No. People forget, Moose in his prime threw very hard, as well as having command and multiple pitchers.
S.o.S.:
Sorry, not them.
The players on the lists are all good prospects and play various positions. The combinations vary pending who is on what list.
Bobcat,
Great news on Hughes. Nearly any deal without him, chamberlain or cano in it would be terrific.
I was agreeing with your point on the twins trying to get LA involved. That was reported in several papers today as definite interest but I figures that was probably leaked by the twins.
They would reallly benefit from LA’s involvement and its only logical smith would try.
1. What’s Santana’s record/numbers against the Red Sox?
2. Don’t consider Santana to be 28. He is turning 29 very soon.
He asked for and was granted release by the Phillies.
Stuart,
There isn’t a single ML scout I have talked to who see Phil Hughes as a number one starter. Not one.
At this time, he can throw one pitch consistently for strikes.
Not being projected as a future #1 is not a bad thing. Very few guys (Chamberlain is one) project out to be a future #1.
Part of the reason why pitchers like Santana are such hot commodities is that he is one of a small handful of guys who are truly #1 starters.
At this time, Hughes doesn’t possess enough plus pitches to be projected as a number one guy.
Doesn’t mean he isn’t an excellent prospect or can’t have a very good ML career.
However, to project him as another Beckett or Santana? There isn’t enough there in his work to date, and where he is at as a pitcher right now, to make that leap.
Ok you can go and think that Cano will be a hall of famer. That’s cool. I personally have my doubts about that. Cano is a fine hitter but has a lot more to prove. Miguel Cabrera, at just the age of 24, has already shown that he is among the elite hitters in the game. He is in the argument with Pujols and A-Rod for best hitter in the game today. He makes a huge difference. He hasn’t even hit his prime years yet.
I’m talking about a one-for-one swap. If you give me the choice, I definitely take Cabrera. It’s not even close.
maverick,
CJ Henry had the right to ask for his release from the phillies and did so. It was Henry who was the driver on the release.
He must really be bad but thanks for the clarification
Corey Patterson is terrible at getting on base. I’d rather have Damon in CF if Melky is gone. Patterson is terrible offensively.
I can’t really get into specifics as to who may or may not be included, but it is early enough (maybe) that a lot of possibilities have been discussed and agreed on, pending what the Twins can get elsewhere.
Remember, they have an abundance of what the Yankees are perceived to have an abundance of – RHP. The Yankees also have a lot of good position players, albeit further down the food chain.
To answer the specific question, is it “possible” to get Santana without the big 3 and Cano? Yes, possible. More expensive, but possible.
You can skew numbers any way you want to, but Johan Santana is the best starting pitcher in baseball.
He’s a LH starter who would thrive in Yankee Stadium. His HR’s allowed would decrease with the spacious LF in Yankee Stadium vs. the shorter LF porch in the Dome.
That would hypothetically decrease his 3.33 ERA from last season. I watch a lot of Johan’s starts on the MLB package last year and a lot of the HR’s he gives up to left field are outs in Yankee Stadium. I’m sure there’s some stat sites that can prove that.
I would trade Hughes, Melky and whatever minor leaguer we had to in order to get Johan.
A lot of people in this blog fall in love with prospects like they are puppies. Most of these prospects don’t pan out or live up to the hype.
I think Hughes will live up to the hype, but it’s going to take him awhile to get there. He hasn’t pitched a full healthy season in the majors. He still has a learning curve.
While it’s cute and cuddly to root for guys with future potential, the fact of the matter is we have a huge hole in our rotation that needs to be filled. We need a true #1. Pettitte isn’t a true #1 if he comes back. Johan is.
Hughes might be in 3-4 years. He still has to build himself up to a 200 inning plateau for the first time in his career and get through a full season with no little hiccup injuries.
Johan is what this team needs. Getting to the post season and having our rotation fall apart is getting old.
We need and this team needs to have confidence that the #1 guy is going to deliver.
Wang proved this year that he is the furthest thing from a #1 starter. In fact if he’s still on the team, Wang shouldn’t start a post season game until game 4 next year, assuming we get Johan, Pettitte and have Joba in the rotation.
Hughes isn’t a one yet. He probably will become one someday, but there is a chance he won’t.
Johan is a one. He’s under 30. He’s LH. He throws 200 + innings a year. He strikes out over 200 guys in a season. He’s healthy.
If you don’t trade Hughes for him and Johan ends up in Boston or Anaheim and just pitches to his career averages, I guarantee you, you will all be sitting here crying about what might have been.
I don’t think Theo is going to trade Ellsbury, but I do think that he would offer Crisp and either Lester or Bucholtz to get Johan (and keep him out of NY).
If we don’t offer Hughes, we most likely don’t get him.
He’s not getting to free agency.
And I don’t want to wait till next year and try to get CC. That guy is a bad contract waiting to happen. That’s why Cleveland and he have yet to come to terms. You see the size of the man and the fact that he doesn’t take care of his body and you know he’s not going to remain a healthy power pitcher for many years.
It would suck to see Hughes go, but it would be worth it to get Johan.
I heard that once he was fitted with contact lens’s he hit better.
Both Henry and Jackson could have played division one basketball on scholarships.
Ironically it was Jackson who looked set play basketball and henry who was thought to be the baseball first athlete.
Do you think the Sox would throw in Bucholtz and Lester to be able to dump Crisp salary and keep Ellsbury? That would give them Santana, Becks, Dice-K, Shill and Wakefield as a rotation and they have a few guys who could fill a spot in 09 when Shill is gone? Think of that rotation in a 5 game series?
If the Yanks can get him for IPK/Melky& Tabata or Jackson it would be the steal of the century
Where Miguel Cabrera goes will impact the Santana talks.
If he goes to the Angels or Dodgers, that knocks them out of the Santana Derby. If they ever really get into it.
I also don’t see Boston giving him a deal that is 2 1/2 times the size of Beckett’s. Also, when I was in Minnesota recently, I was told by someone who would know that Santana has no desire to go to Boston.
Looking at it objectively, if he gets dealt, it would surprise me if it wasn’t to the Yankees. Too many things point to it and its more than just the stuff that’s written in columns and blogs.
Thank you for saving me all the typing I would have to do. Its not even close on who the more elite hitter is. To say Cano has a ticket to the hall is a bit premature. His batting avg. dropped last year(not to say it wasnt still good)and his plate discipline has to improve(obviously).
As far as Cabrera, his numbers compare to Arod first few years. He has a chance to be in a special class by the time hes finished. One of the best hitters ever.(possibly)
Bobcat – Any feeling of how much longer it would take to get a deal done? I know there are a bunch of variables that could change the timeframe.
I know very few people will agree with me but, I think we might be better off trading Hughes then Kennedy.
Hughes has more upside, but he has more downside too. Picture his throwing motion. Cant you see him getting injured every season?? I know he’s got skills, but so have others. Remember how big Kerry Woods Curveball was, and how explosive his fastball was? He was supposed to be the next Clemens, just like some peope say about Phil Hughes.
Kennedy, on the other hand, has a less injury prone throwing style.
If we can trade PH/MC for johan, i would do that way before IPK/MC/Tabata
Phil Hughes could be the next Roger Clemens, or the next Kerry Wood.
Sorry to jump in here but I am just figuring this internet thing out. Kind of an old timer
“Wang proved this year that he is the furthest thing from a #1 starter”
Wang would be a #2 or #3 starter on most teams. That’s far from “the furthest thing from a #1 starter”
“Wang proved this year that he is the furthest thing from a #1 starterâ€
I thought I was the furthest thing from a #1 starter. I guess not.
Mike R.:
As I indicated yesterday, there are a lot of moving parts on this thing. It’s more about when the Twins feel they have their best deals in place for all of the assets they are shopping (as in their entire roster).
Smith’s ability to pinpoint his best deals is being impacted by other forces in the marketplace (Cabrera, Haren, Blanton, Rowand, et al). Very common, but also complex.
All I can tell you is that in this business, impatience is usually very expensive.
As a young, raw pitcher Wang did admirably filling in the #1 hole for 2 years. He’s not a number 1, but he did the job he was supposed to. He didn’t pitch well against Cleveland in the playoffs, but other than that Wang is not the reason the Yankees have failed in the last 3 years. Get over it.
Thats what scares me. Everything looks like its leaning towards us getting him. It reminds me of Beltran, Bernie was his favorite player and all the experts had him comming to us. It seems everytime the media has someone going to us(as a sure thing),they dont. I hope im wrong.
Do you think the Yankees want to get a deal done sooner rather than later so that they do not lose out on Rowand if they move Melky? When free agents start coming off the market I think it makes it less certain some players will be moved
Hey Mike R., I think you are probably a better pitcher than Kei Igawa. He might be the furthest thing from a #1 starter!
Bobcat,
Thanks for the continued info updates! Are the Garza/Young and Slowey/Crisp talks still active, and if so could/will they still have an impact on a deal for Santana?
mel
November 28th, 2007 at 1:40 pm
Captain,
LOL. We’ve asked Bobcat to blink, honk, and reply with yes or no. I would ask him to give his messages with Morse code, but I can’t read it!
__________________________________________________
Here you go, Mel. Enjoy.
http://havenworks.com/language/morse-code/
If Melky goes they should stick Damon in CF. The outfield defense would be pretty bad in that scenario, but Rowand is a highly overrated hitter and they lose a 1st round draft pick to the Phillies for signing him. Plus they would have to commit 3 or 4 years at more than 10 million per year. He’s not worth it. He had a career year but isn’t going to be that good again. And we have some OF depth in the minors. Rowand isn’t needed.
The only way i want Santana is if we dont have to give up Hughes, Joba, Melky, Cano…not worth it thats all i got to say
That’s the thing, does anyone here really want Rowand? 15/16 Million for 5 years seems like a waste. Especially when we might have Jackson waiting in the wings and the deep FA classes of 09, 2010.
If we trade Melky, I would be in favor of Damon starting in CF as a stop gap in 08.
Why not Camaron or Jones for a year or two? Good defensivly/offensively and gives the youngsters time to come up.
trit,
Yeah I agree with your assessment but I just can’t see Damon in centerfield ever again on a regular basis. I also can’t see Cashman going into the season with Damon and Matsui as starting outfielders but I could be wrong
Reposted from Bronx Banter:
5. williamnyy23
Santana is clearly a great pitcher, and might very well be worth the rumored packages, but the claim that “there has never been a pitcher quite like him” is absurd.
For his career, Santana’s ERA+ is 141 in 1,300 IP at AGE 28. That’s great. It really is. But, it’s no better than Roy Oswalt (ERA+ of 143 in 1,400 IPs; AGE 29) or Brandon Webb (ERA+ of 144 in 1,100 IPs; AGE 28). To be honest, it’s not light years ahead of Carlos Zambrano (ERA+ of 130 in 1,200 IP; AGE 26). Santana is probably the best pitcher in the game right now, but he isn’t head and shoulders better than the names above (as well as a few others I might not have mentioned).
———————————————————-
“But the Red Sox have Beckett”
Beckett’s ERA+ up to age 28 is: 116
Over the last 3 years, it has been: 119
We do not NEED Santana (ERA+ 141).
We need a healthy guy who is ERA+ 115 or better, of which there are many.
2009 FAs
A.J. Burnett: Career ERA+: 112: Last 4 years: 115
John Lackey: Career ERA+: 116: Last 4 years: 125
Jake Peavy: Career ERA+: 119: Last 4 years: 139
CC Sabathia: Career ERA+: 116: Last 4 years: 125
Santana would be great, but he is too expensive.
We are very short of impact position players on the farm.
We should NOT trade Tabata, Miranda, Montero or AJax.
Also, many think Horne has a better upside then IPK, so don’t casually throw him into any deals. Many think AJax has a much higher upside then Melky… so trading Melky is we KEEP AJax won’t be that horrible.
I can’t even begin to say how horrible signing Rowand wold be, it’s Mike Lowell all over again
Thank you trit. I might not have his stuff, but I do keep it down in the zone.
Amen to that Pete! I could not agree with you more. I hope that BC is reading your posts and does the right thing. Yanks need to be patient and wait till next year and sign Johan or another of the FA in the market. For now, stick to the plan and hold on to the blue-chippers.
hahahahaha, I AM A CAN’T MISS NUMBER 1…
Wang is not the reason we did not advance this year – but he desevers alot of credit for it. He pitched horrible and that indian team got more 2 out hits than any team i have ever seen..
Wank as a number 2 this year would be great… Go into a big 3 game weekend series with Yohan, Wang, hughes/Joba. That is fun… I am getting excited thinking about it…
dammit what the hell is wrong w/ my typing today !
Global warming,
Signing Jones to a one-year deal would be great but I don’t know if that is an option according to Hank’s best friend Boras. Cameron will probably get a 3 year deal too so I don’t know about him. Any chance Cashman lets Ajax or Gardner learn on the job like he did with Melky? They are very raw prospects but might be better for this team than Matsui and Damon in the OF for 150 games.
Sj there are a handful of #1 pitchers in all of baseball; beckett, santana, halliday,bedard(maybe), who else???
So Hughes is not projected to be a #1, thn again Santana was a rule 5 pickup..
Getting Sanatan is just the Yankees trying to do the same old crap they have for yrs. with out getting the desired results…
I am not a scout but I like hughes stuff, his head, and his guts…The guy is 21, smart, and wants to be great, not a bad formula…
Tieing up a #1 at 29 for many yrs and a ton of money, and trading 4 or so good players is organizational suicide…….
NO NO NO
SJ,
I may be very wrong but I still can’t see giving a pitcher 6 years and 150 million, too many things can go wrong, a la Zito. I say the move should be made at the trade deadline and once they’ve seen the kids more closely during the season. If Pettitte comes back and pitches the way he did this year it won’t be such a bad staff.
In truth, how many more games are in the pocket with Santana ? A few or a couple ? Considering the piss poor start this team had this year and barring the same results, we are the Division winner without Santana, no ? Who expected two really bad months from this team.
The Sox didn’t overwhelm us this year and who’s to say Beckett will repeat next year. Matsuzaka wasn’t any great shakes either, and Schilling is a year older. Who are we really worried about beating, Wakefield ?
Haha, that’s hysterical Mike R!
Jones will not sign a one year deal unless no one is interested and he and his agent realize that he needs to improve his stock.
AGAIN ALL LET’S GET an allstar at everyposition including the utility player and lets make the payroll $260 mill and lose in the 1st round of the playoffs….
yeah andruw jones just what they need a fading player, overweight, streaky, and overpaid..He would fit right in.
believe it or not Stephen A. Smith is somewhat useful finally
he said he bumped into Tori Hunter at the Lakers game last night
Tori said “I think Johan is going to NY”
SAS: “are you asking me or telling me ?”
Tori: “yo bro I’m just saying I think he wants to be in NY”
I think Jones would be open to a one year deal if the price was right and only when he recieves all of his offers and doesn’t like any of them. He want $100 million. I don’t think he will get close to that after last years numbers. Walk year numbers work both ways.
If Jones was to sign a one year deal woudln’t he do it on a club where he could bat 3 or 4 to help his numbers. He would bat 6th on this team and probably wouldn’t get as many AB’s as he would on another club that bats him 3rd.
Maverick – You have a point, but while I can’t back this up with stats at the moment, I think a #6 batter for the yanks should get about the same number of AB as a #3 hitter in a mediocre lineup.
Stuart, refresh my memory.
When was the last time the Yankees went after/ acquired one of the best pitchers in baseball who happens to be in his late 20s?
I dont trade Hughes – but i trade Kennedy… We need to get this done and we need to fix our 8th inning. If we get santana for IPK and Pettite decides to come back – what do we do with miss mussina? Do we move him to accounting?
Johan
Wang
Pettite
Hughes
Joba
That will leave me, “Stuart” and “Jennifer – HIP HIP JORGE” to battle that spectacle wearing wussie for the 8th inning…
The bottom line is that if Jones is willing to sign a one-year deal then he would be the best replacement for Melky in 2008. But if Jones wants anything more than the one-year deal the Yankees have to figure out another plan.
One of the nice things about Jones is that he would not cost the Yankees any draft picks. It would just be about the money for one year.
But I doubt this will happen. As many have said already, Boras is his agent, and considering that the slightly above average Torii Hunter just got a 90 million dollar package, I sense that Jones will find a long-term commitment for big money out there as well.
hey bobcat, who do you think you are that you seem to dictate the terms of all this? do you have actual knowledge of these dicscussions or are you just speculating>?
Mike,
You’re probably right. Just a thought that popped in my head. It just seems hitting third for a team like the White Sox would provide a better chance to rack up the stats than batting behind ARod, Jorge, and Matsui who will drive in a lot of runs. Stats probably say otherwise
Maverick you can also say that he will be batting behind Alex or Jorge so he will get pitches to hit and that will help his numbers
Surprise player? One year rental. Appease Minnesota fan base. hmmmmm.
I’m thinking Abreu, but he’s got a no trade.
I’m thinking it’s an established guy. The Twins probably don’t want JUST farmhands and pitchers with potential, they want someone they can plug in now and get some RBIs.
Giambi + $…. doubt it, but Giambi & Money, Kennedy, + A-AA prospects?
This is just me dreamin. But fans like us over value players (like Melky) but we also under value our problem players (like Giambi). Perhaps to the Twins, Giambi is a one year rental that could hit 20-30 HRs and drive in a lot of runs if given the ABs. We have no use for him cuz we want the Matsui Damon Combo.Obviously we’d have to throw in most of his salary too.
Yeah, I’m dreamin.
If we trade melky, we can go with a defense first CF and put him at the bottom of the order…. I just dont want to have Damon in left… I like having a good outfielder with a great arm in center. I love when people try and run on melky…. THEY JUST GET DEAD!
Bobcat has earned a certain reputation as a knowledgable comenter. His posts are usually taken in high regard.
There is more a chance of us including Hank Stein in a trade then the twinkies taking giambi…
I dont think the league would allow the amount of money we would have to include if we sent jason over…
YOU HEARD IT HERE FIRST: This will be giambi’s best year as a Yankee if he stays healthy…
SoS27, I never said that Cano was the same type of hitter as Cabrera, only that between BA and his increase in run production this year, there isn’t enough of a difference when you factor in Cano’s defense against the hack job that Cabrera did at third base. Moving him to a position that he has never played, even in the minors doesn’t sound very appealing. He’s not exactly agile and quick. If you thought that Sheffield looked bad, or, can picture Manny Ramirez there, fine. As far as Cabrera going to the HOF as a DH (that will be his position in time), he may make it, but, Cano is going to approach surpass Joe Morgan’s and Ryne sandberg’s HOF numbers at 2nd except in steals. The defense will be comparable. That is, of course, if both players keep on their present pace. By the way, trit, Cabrera’s only about 5 months younger than Cano.
Maverick I don’t think that’s true. Albert Pujols had another awesome year in 2007. His slugging was down a bit from previous years but he still batted .330+ with 30+ homers and an awesome OPS. However, he barely scratched 100 RBI because all of his teammates sucked big time. When the guys ahead and behind him in the order actually produced, like in 2004, 2005, and 2006, Pujols had 130 RBI all the time. But nobody got base on front of him in 2007, and nobody hit behind him. Therefore his RBI and runs scored suffered like crazy in 2007 comparison to previous years.
And look at Matsui. The guy gets 100 RBI every year batting 5th in the Yankee lineup. ARod and Abreu are on base all the time for him. It’s good to be in any part of a lineup when they guys ahead of you get on base. And in the yankee case, being the 6th hitter is ok for RBI numbers since Abreu/ARod/Matsui are hitting in front of you. Even if they drive in lots of runs, they will be on base waiting for the #6 hitter to drive them in as well.
trit,
Very true. I think Jones would be exponentially better than Melky on a one year basis. His game may have fallen off a bit but I don’t see him having the same year that he did last year. If he does you are only at risk for one year and can hope Ajax or Gardner are ready for 09.
global warming the last time the yanks traded for the best pitcher in baseball, HUM not in my lifetime and I am in my mid 40’s but so what. give up 4 jewells, overpay for a 7 yr contract, and the pitcher declines and you are screwed……..
this site is groundhog day.. the experts on this site realize after last yr. you need an ace in the playoffs to win so guess what all the internet GM’s want an ace!!!!
Aces do not grow on tree’s and again they cannot be predicted no different then Hughes future performance can be predicted….
Santana was rule 5, halliday was not a 1st pick, bedard the same.. Bckett was a top 5 pick but what happened to all the other top 5 picks??
Again brain surgeons on this site see a problem so they say let’s fix the problem; ie Santana…It is a gamble not worth making.
I bet someone will throw him a 3yr/45mil deal, I just wonder if he would sign say a 1yr/18mil deal and try to get a big deal next year
Giambi better have a great year.He knows the Yankees are done when his contract is up.I can’t wait personally for him and his ailments to leave NY
INSANITY:
Jason (NJ): Am I the only one who thinks Hughes, Cabrera and Jackson is a weak offer for Santana. I think Melky is WAY over rated by some of these writers. If I am the Twins GM, I ask for Hughes and Cano, plus a lesser guy. Whats your opinion?
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:13 PM ET ) We did a bunch of Santana trade questions last week, so I’m going to try not to get bogged down with too many today. I don’t think Cabrera is anything special, but that’s not a horribly weak offer. I love Philip Hughes. I don’t think the Yankees will part with Cano, so if I’m the Twins, maybe I counter with Hughes, Cabrera, Tabata (or Jackson if I can’t get more than Tabata) plus Ian Kennedy.
giambi will be a minimum player in 2 yrs. or on his couch.
I seriously would rate Action’s defense over Melky and even his hitting, as much as I like Melk, Melky is not stopping any deal here
GreenBeret did you not read the part where it was mentioned that Cabrera is matching A-Rod’s early year numbers? That’s the buzz around Cabrera – he’s the next great all-time hitter. Cano doesn’t have the same buzz. His offense more than makes up for the defensive advantage. And who are you to say that Cabrera will even be a DH? He has to go the the AL for that to even be a possiblity. You have no clue if he is even going to get traded this offseason. He could very well stay in the NL for several more years. And even if he ends up playing a large portion of his career at DH, take a look at David Ortiz. Cabrera puts up that type of production at the age of 24. Think about that. The defensive aspect just doesn’t compare when you can produce like that.
And the scary thing is: he is only going to get better.
Cabrera is way way way better than Cano as an overall baseball player. His incredible offense more than makes up for Cano’s above average bat and glove.
It’s not exactly fair to compare Johan Santana to any of those guys. None of them pitches in the American League. Johan would probably have put up Pedro numbers if he pitched in the NL.
I like Jim Callis, but the more I read the more bias he seems. I don’t know why.
I believe that ERA+ takes is adjusted for the league and the park you pitch in, so it is very fair to use that stat when comparing Santana to the NL pitchers.
Jake, Mike
The Twins have to at least ask for that package to do their due dilegence. Not that the deal would get done with both those pitchers included but you have to start the talks somewhere high and eventually meet in the middle or back off the talks. If the Twins came to the table asking just for Hughes/Melky/Tabata they would have no where to go but down
51:
I don’t get paid to speculate. I deal in facts. Take what I post however you wish.
Thanks, Mike.
Don’t fuss too much about the bullpen. There’s not a lot to be done on the open market regarding that issue, so the current NYY thinking is to sign Vizcaino and use Farnsworth (Girardi says he can fix him) and Viz in the late innings and fill in the rest with the guys in the system. Veras is pitching well and the guys who came up as starters may very well apprentice as relievers.
Bobcat,
Thanks for the continued info updates! Are the Garza/Young and Slowey/Crisp talks still active, and if so could/will they still have an impact on a deal for Santana?
Jake – Did you just call Jim insane in the chat or was that a coincidence?
I don’t really see how this is the “same old stuff” with the Yankees re: Santana.
When was the last time the Yankees got a 28 year old #1 starter?
The Yankees went hard for Josh Beckett but didn’t have the parts to get a deal done. That has already cost them one World Series.
If they had Santana this year, they win the World Series. A dominant, LH pitcher in Yankee Stadium is worth a lot of money.
As far as the other 100 million dollar pitchers being busts, that’s not a reliable comparison. Those guys took advantage of the marketplace. They were never in Santana’s class as a pitcher.
When was the last time a guy like Santana hit the open market? It doesn’t happen. Teams lock up guys like him long term.
He is a rare commodity. If Josh Beckett was a free agent this year, teams wouldn’t blink at spending over 100 million on him. He’s a difference maker.
Hell, the Cubs spent over 90 million on Carlos Zambrano and he isn’t even in Santana’s league as a pitcher.
The Yankees didn’t spend over 400 million dollars this off-season to hope the young guys can get the job done.
They need a stud. An ace and Santana is that ace.
Hank Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman know it. That’s why, absent some craziness happening in the next two weeks, I think they make the deal.
Could he get hurt? ANY player could get hurt. You can’t make deals out of fear of injury.
Phil Hughes has been injured more than Johan Santana in his career. Why aren’t people worried about Hughes’ ability to stay healthy as they are Santana?
There are times you go for it. To me, Santana is one of those guys you gotta get if at all possible.
If you can do the deal without Hughes, great. If its Hughes or no deal, I make the deal 100% of the time.
Even the most optimistic baseball person doesn’t rate Phil Hughes as having a higher ceiling that Johan Santana.
Santana is not some 37-40 year old over the hill guy. He is in the prime of his career. A career the young pitchers on the Yankees wish they could have for themselves.
As much as I like youth, I also like studs. Santana is that rare guy. He is young AND a stud.
Gotta do the deal if its there for them to do.
Does anybody know if the Yankees have plans to use Humberto Sanchez as bullpen insurance, if necessary, once the middle of the season comes around? Or do they prefer him as a starter? He’s coming off of TJ surgery so I would think that using him as a relief option in 2008 might be a good idea just in case (when?) Farnsworth disappoints again.
Bobcat,
Is sending money a possibility in any of the deals that you are hearing about?
Key points, starting with prospects…
Joba: If you’ve seen the licensed ‘In Joba We Trust’ gear, you know he’s not going anywhere.
Hughes: Almost a no-hitter, respectable playoff performance, and before Joba was in our vocabulary, the guy everybody was talking about. Everyone.
IPK: Showed precision and an ability to use it compensating for less power.
All three are under 23, already pitched well in a pennant race on the biggest stage, and cost pennies compared to what Santana would be paid and what it would cost to get a centerfielder (let’s not forget Melky being part of the deal). And what centerfielder would they get? Melky is also about as young as you can get and have experience some veterans wish they had.
Johan: Still only 28, lefty, Cy Young winner, strikeout ratio, and everything else that causes such a stir in the baseball offseason. To sum it up, he’s an ACE. Think about how many actual ‘aces’ there are. The top pitcher in last year’s market was Barry Zito, and he’s not close to being an ‘ace’.
The scales on both sides are close. The Yanks would probably wind up winning either way the scales tip. The tipping point will be how far enemy #1 from up north is willing to go to add their 2ND ace.
I know that 2009 is Damon’s last season; what about Matsui? Is it 2009 or 2010? I knew he signed a 4 year contract, but I forget when that was.
If Melky goes, I just don’t see a short-term fix free agent-wise. Unless Damon is moved back to centerfield, and then you have to deal with the issues with his arm again. Damon was terrific in left last season, covering a lot of ground without a lot of demand placed on that arm. I know Santana is an elite pitcher, but I just don’t know if all the peripheral moves are worth it. I’m not saying that Melky should not be traded; just who is replaced by? And that’s not an inconsequential thing, because if you sign a free agent, once again the Yankees become a little less flexible.
I’m also hoping that if they do end up in a position to talk extension with Santana that they can get him to go for 5 years, not 7. Someone’s got to unset the Barry Zito precedent. Just because the Giants were stupid enough to way overpay for a mediocre pitcher shouldn’t mean that everyone else should suffer down the road.
SJ44/Bobcat,
Do you do a deal if it includes Hughes + Kennedy + Melky?
Martini6196
That would be a much better alternative than giving them our young, potential studs..
Missing out on Josh Beckett didn’t cost them the 2007 World Series. It’s not that simple.
The only World Series that Josh Beckett directly crippled the Yankees in was 2003. Just because Beckett did well for Boston in 2007 doesn’t mean that’s why the Yankees didn’t win it in 2007. There are a myriad of reasons, and that’s just a small part of the mix.
I’m really surprised at how people view Santana. Santana is an elite pitcher. The best pitcher in baseball over the last 5 years and is still relatively young. He’s the type of pitcher that comes along once or twice a decade and is rarely available. If the yankees don’t trade for him and lock him up, someone will. Kazmir or Bedard are nice pitchers but not close to the pitcher that Santana is. Hughes, Chamberlin and Kennedy are good prospects but its a stretch to assume that one of them is going to become one of the top 4 pitchers in the game over a five year period and none of them are left-handed. I love Cano and would hate trading him but Cano’s offense can be replaced by improvements spread across other offensive positions. You can’t replace the difference between a true elite #1 starter and a 2nd tier guy like Wang or Kazmir by upgrading other positions. Maybe you can pick up games in the regular season by improving their 3-5 starters but come playoff time having that elite #1 is huge. And we haven’t had that guy for years and its as much a reason as any why we’ve exited early. Maybe Joba or Hughes will become that guy but its a lot to count on.
SJ44,
Those scouts you are talking to had Hughes rated the best pitching prospect in baseball back in April of this year. He has 3 quality pitches that were not always on display due to the injury and limited innings last season. The kid is 21 years old and will grow stronger. He still projects as an ace and I’ve heard some scouts say he projects as a better long term prospect than Joba.
I never said Hughes will be Beckett. I did say he has an excellent chance to equal Beckett’s wins and era. Thats what it’s all about no?
Mike R.,
That was me.
I read that, posted it on here, and then sent in a comment that he posted.
I just think that trade is absolute insanity. Even if Hughes or Kennedy doesn’t pan out, we would be dumping the farm on one guy and reverting back to the idiot moves we have constantly made post 2001.
I like our prospects just as much as the next guy, but your attachment to our youth has become perverse if you aren’t willing to give up any of it for the best pitcher in the majors (who is 28).
Santana is a power pitcher, but changes speeds as well as anyone in the majors and has a great feel for pitching. Even if he loses some velocity as he ages he will still be a good pitcher. And he is still just 28.
If we can get him in a package that doesn’t include Cano, Wang, Joba, or Hughes then we are crazy not to do it. A rotation of Santana, Wang, Joba, Hughes and whoever else (imagine if Pettite comes back next year) should be the best rotation in the big leagues over the next 3-4 years barring injury and we would be crazy to pass on that…and I think IPK is underrated. (I think people generally underestimate young pitchers who aren’t flamethrowers. It’s as if they think you can teach anyone to command their pitches consistently and understand the art of pitching, but if a guy doesn’t throw 95, he’ll never be any better than a 4th or 5th starter, which is just asinine)
It also drives me crazy when people don’t give wang any credit. He’s been in the big leagues for 2 and a half years, has finished with an ERA under 4 and 19 wins the last two years in the toughest division in baseball and has taken second in the cy young voting. Aside from his stumbles in the playoffs this year (which could have been affected by starting on 9 days rest then 3, or having the injured fingernail, remember he pitched well against detroit), I don’t understand what else you can want from a young pitcher. I could care less if he gets the strikeouts or style points that seem to matter more to most people than his actual performance. If Hughes and Joba can replicate his last two years over their next two years, I’ll be happy, and we’ll do quite well.
Jake – I agree. I just found it very funny.
Come-on Guys, you know the Yankee Way – the “win every year†slogan that we hear ad nauseum tells us they have to make a go at Santana. We have no ace and Santana is a proven ace. Wang is not an ace and needs to get off this “I have to stop using my sinker†theme. We don’t know if Andy will be back next year and all the kids will be on inning counts.
It’s a given that the Yankees have not done a very good job in judging the projected health of their pitchers. Let’s hope they do a better job going forward and stop bringing in the RJ types, at least this guy is still young. There needs to be a thorough look before offering a contract for that length of time and that amount of money. In addition to the medical/physical, the scouts need to know about his other attributes – personal, physical, and emotional – plus his release point, and his work ethic before they make an offer. I also wonder if players are given any sort of a psych. exam because although I heard the Twins beat writer say Santana told him he wants to pitch on the big stage we’ve seen too many guys that just couldn’t handle the Bronx. In fact, I think that might be a good idea for any player they bring in.
I’ve read all the breakdowns and forecasts and have to assume the Yankees have as well.
Actually, I’d like to believe that BC & Co. do all of these things but well, we’ve seen some of the “amazing talent†they’ve brought in over the years.
Then there is the does size really matter question. According to Baseball Digest’s “Does Size Really Matter,†by Peter Schmuck it does. Santana isn’t as tall as the big 2 but he is the same height as Kennedy although Santana is heavier than Kennedy is; actually, it looks like Santana could use to lose a few lbs.
Look, if the Twins are giving up Santana they are going to expect and deserve quality in return. Nobody knows for sure what type of issues any pitcher or player may have down the road but ultimately that is the only question I would have with a long expensive contract with Santana. I’ve questioned Kennedy’s back problem – and so may the Twins. Do the Yankees give up the farm? No, I don’t think anyone thinks that although I have read and heard some pretty bizarre suggestions.
Peter, you said the Twins are very good at scouting and they were willing to offer Santana 4 years plus decent money. You also said they may have some players in mind that we haven’t even thought about yet. We didn’t hear much about Chamberlain before he showed up – we were hearing about how fantastic Hughes was in the minors. Do we even know if Chamberlain will turn out to be the dominant starter that is making him untouchable? Bottom line – whether I like a contract or not (I hate A-Rod’s) I just hope they are.
BTW, I saw Melky at the Nets game last night – can’t imagine how it feels having his name thrown around the way it has been. Also, read Duncan was hospitalized; non-specific on cause and Abreu has employed a trainer.
Pete, is Damon’s wife pregnant again?
“Hell, the Cubs spent over 90 million on Carlos Zambrano and he isn’t even in Santana’s league as a pitcher.”
I would argue that Zambrano and Beckett are very similiar to each other.
Both are 27
Big Z: 3.41 ERA, 130 ERA+ and 1.285 WHIP
Beckett: 3.74 ERA, 112 ERA+ and 1.228 WHIP
The difference is that Beckett has been allowed to pitch in the post season while Zambrano is pulled in the 6th to have him fresh from game 5.
But Zambrano and Beckett are very very similiar pitchers
RosterRooster,
I actually agree with you that keeping IPK over Hughes might pan out to be the smarter move. IPK has more developed pitches and is by all accounts, more of a pitcher than Hughes is right now. Hughes is still learning his entire repertoire.
Would you rather have a guy who is still trying to figure out how to throw a consistent changeup to work with his fastball or would you rather have a Cy Young contender?
And for the people who got on me for bashing Wang yet again, I won’t get over it. After the ALDS, I’ll never trust the guy in a big spot for this team again. He has to earn that back from the fans because right now, he stinks. Seriously stinks. He got out pitched by rookies on his own team and Paul Byrd.
If he was our game 1 starter next season, I’d be very worried. He’s by far my least favorite Yankee.
If he’s not traded for Johan, then if Pettitte comes back and Joba is in the rotation, he will be our #4 starter. Maybe #5 if IPK out pitches him as well.
We’re talking an all time post season collapse by a pitcher who was supposed to be the anchor of the staff. It was pathetic.
I heard Mel Stottlemeyer talk about what happened to Wang in the post season and he said he could tell he needed to make adjustments on the mound but was not making them and kept repeating the same delivery that was causing his ball to move side to side instead of down.
I don’t think for a second that Gator and the staff didn’t see the same things on the mound and try to get Wang to correct the flaw.
Gator and Torre lost their jobs over Wang’s pitiful performance.
He is the main reason they lost the ALDS. He blew 2 games where we had to go the pen early and were climbing back from a deficit.
I would LOVE IT if he got traded for Johan and we got to keep Hughes.
bobcat in college when studying poli-sci,you remind me of deep throat in the watergate scandal.If I hear you say “just follow the money,”it’s going to sound familar. Love your post and literally can’t wait for the next one. You rock!!
The Yankees have options for the pen in their second tier starters, Karstens, Ohlendorf, Britton, Veras, Rasner, Ramirez, etc. They could all be a factor this season and for the good.
Bruney is trade bait. Farnsworth wasn’t all that bad at the end of the season, in fact he looked decent and still has the velocity to be effective. Viz was OK.
It’s too bad Igawa is so irratic but he still K’d a lot of guys. Maybe he was shamed enough last year to be effective this year ???? One can only dream, ha ha.
What about the kids from the AFL meaning White, Whelen, and Wordekemper? Any of them any good???
Trading for Johan would not be an idiotic move. It could potentially be a great move. He is young and is the best pitcher in the game. The Yankees have a deep farm system so they can absorb the trade of prospects. The money isn’t an issue with the Yankees either.
The only thing that’s really risky about it is that he is a pitcher and giving out large contracts and long-term commitments to pitchers usually leads to disappointment. I have a feeling that this will not be the case with Johan, but all it takes is one major arm injury and then 100+ million could be flushed down the toilet.
“Hell, the Cubs spent over 90 million on Carlos Zambrano and he isn’t even in Santana’s league as a pitcher.â€
nevermind….santana….got it
Also…The likelyhood of all 3 (Hughes, Joba and Kennedy working out is not as slim as everyone keeps saying. These Kids are unique. When was thye last time a team had 3 kids at this age pitching the way these guys do? Answer is – NEVER…I’ve been following this team like a fanatic for 30 plus years and have never seen a group of kids this talented and this mature at 22. I would bet a year’s salary on all 3 being solid MLB pitchers (# 3 or above types) for many years. Johan is great, but, he is built like a figure skater. I would not bet on him for more than 3 more years. He also showed signs of decline last season. If the Sox want to sell the farm for him let them. So they win it all again next season…Then the Yankees win the next 3 or 4 in a row. That should be the plan here, to build a dynasty not a one year wonder.
REmember SAncez,Mark Melancon,and J.Brent Cox.As much as a risk as any free agent and cheaper.
SJ44 -
You have said a couple of times that Hughes has been injured more than Santana. Aside from the hamstring and ankle injuries of this season, what were Hughes’ other injuries?
no brainer.. keep cano and joba and do whatever it takes to get santana.. the guy is a difference maker just like beckett was this year in the playoffs.
I am not saying this to bash Wang – I think Wang is the man – however I think people highly overrate the AL East as a tough division for Yankee pitchers to win in. The Yankee pitchers don’t face the Yankee lineup. The Yankee lineup is one of the main reason why the AL East is seen as such a tough division to pitch to.
The Orioles offense is terrible. The Blue Jays were a terrible offensive team last year although they should be better if guys can stay healthy (although signing guys that are injury-prine is part of their problem). The Devil Rays have a nice rising offense but it’s not great yet. And the Red Sox have a tough lineup to pitch to.
So if you are a Yankee pitcher you have one tough lineup (Boston), one other decent lineup to face against (Tampa), a really pathetic lineup (the Orioles), and a 2007 offensive team that was very unimpressive (Toronto). It’s not really all that crazy. I’d be much more impressed with a guy in the AL Central that had to deal with both the Indians and Tigers lineup for a combined 10 starts a year. or Roy Halladay or Bedard or Kazmir having to face the Yankees/Boston lineup 10 starts a year.
RonH:
There are dozens of potential trades in the works, so yes, those are a couple of them. And they all impact each other.
Martini6196:
Money has been discussed, but it’s not something the Yankees or the Commissioner’s office is in favor of (sends the wrong message to the fans and Twins’ ownership).
Maverick:
I’m not sure that Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera would be necessary, but no one would say the Yankees overpaid if that’s where they ended up. All three are very, very replaceable. The Yankees’ farm system is loaded. The one they would be traded for is not.
Sharp Shooter:
Thanks, and you’re welcome.
VOIII-
I’d say the last time was 2000-2001 A’s
Mulder, Zito, Hudson.
anyone else notice Melky at the Nets game last night, with a slight beard?
Doreen,
I think he meant that Santana has never had a serious injury. I respect SJ44, but he doesn’t see Hughes in the same light we do. He may be right about Hughes, but we can still dream, right?
Bobcat,
If I am reading between the lines correctly, you seem to be indicating that IPK and lower level prospects are the package the Yankees would need to give up in a “less expensive” deal. A “more expensive” package would not include any of the big 3 or Cano, but more lower level prospects. Do I have the general idea?
Now that I think about it the NL East has some pretty good ofenses as well. The Marlins, Braves, Phillies, and Mets all have top notch offenses.
Puh-lease. Santana put up a 4.00+ ERA down the stretch, in front of apathetic fans in a pressure free environment (please don’t compare NYC with Minnesota). When he comes to NYC, the media capital of the world, with a rabid fan base, where there are 8 million people in the city, 7 major newspapers, and talk shows all day, in exchange for 3 good, young players and a $150m contract, do you honestly think he is going to perform better. No, can you say choke job. See Roger Clemens 1997-1998 performances with Toronto and his 1999 performance with us. His ERA spiked 2 runs. A-Rod? Compare his 2003 MVP season with Texas vs. his first season here. There is an adjustment period. Unrealisticly high expectations and pressure will hurt his performance. A 4.00 ERA in Minneapolis in the second half? Call that a 4.50 ERA in NYC where the world will be watching……..
Zambrano isn’t as good a pitcher as Beckett.
Just looking at stats isn’t the way to evaluate these guys.
Beckett has pitched, and excelled, in bigger games. He has elevated his team and pitched against better competition the last 2 years in the AL. Zambrano often loses his mind on the mound, which leads to his legendary meltdowns.
Talented? Yes. As good as Beckett? No.
Phil Hughes has NEVER had 3 + pitches. Never. He has one and a half. A good, 4 seam fastball and a 12 to 6 curveball. He was still working on his changeup in the minors (and majors, for that matter) and his two seamer was a good, but not great, pitch.
If he doesn’t develop his other pitches, he has shown he doesn’t have enough movement on his fastball to miss bats. That’s what we have seen in his time in the majors.
The problem with Phil is, post-injury, he lost velocity on both his two seam and four seam fastball and really struggled with his curveball. Like Homer Bailey, that reduced his stature in some scouts eyes.
Does that mean he is a bust? No. Does that mean some teams look at him differently than they did when he was in AA? Yes.
Today, there isn’t anybody in baseball who would put Chamberlain behind Hughes. Talent evaluation is an evolving thing. It doesn’t stop once a player hits the majors.
Joba made the majors, and dominated, a year out of college. That’s about as impressive as it gets.
In a way, its unfair to Hughes to compare him to Joba because he isn’t as good a pitcher. Doesn’t mean he won’t be a good pitcher. However, if both guys stay healthy, I believe (as many baseball people do) Chamberlain will have the better career.
Maverick,
I wouldn’t do Hughes, Kennedy and Cabrera for Santana. If they want Hughes, then the Yankees have to keep Kennedy. Can’t give both Kennedy and Hughes for Santana. Mainly, because they won’t have to.
Bobcat & SJ44
Thanks. I didn’t know. I saw Simmons say he would give up both Lester and Bucholtz and why he is kind of an idiot the thought popped in my head that they might have to give up both.
EdWhitson you clearly have no clue.
Maverick, neither Whelen nor White had especially good numbers in Fall Ball.
Wordekemper’s a little older than the players he’s going against in each of his classifications. Not a big time “stuff” guy, but, in Tampa this season in 48 innings, 5 runs allowed, 3 earned runs. He was the closer. 44 games, 34 saves and a 2-0 record. ERA was 0.56. zero HRA 11 walks.
He did pretty well in the Arizona Fall League. the 2nd link gives his numbers this fall.
http://minors.baseball-referen.....?pid=30373
http://mlb.mlb.com/milb/stats/.....pid=474544
Hoffa:
Obviously, if one of the big boys is in the package, it gets done sooner and it drives the other trades. That’s not exactly how the Twins would want to play this. They will want to get the other pieces done and fill in with the Yankees’ list. But I could see one of the big 3 going, if for no other reason, to reduce the impact elsewhere.
I read on Tyler Kepners blog in Sept this yr. Hughes was very very good!!!
he was building his arm strength etc…..
Santan will be 29 opening day not 28……. Hughes will be 21, Damon in CF is a non starter…….
Hughes will be much better then Kennedy there will be no comparison…….
We have some activity… look for the Twins to pull the trigger on at least one deal today.
Maverick
Simmons? Stop reading the Sports guy.. he says some dumb things..
Doreen,
Hughes’ first year in the system, he had elbow problems. That made Nardi Contreras have him stop throwing sliders.
His second year in the organization, they shut him down early because of shoulder soreness.
Last year, the torn hamstring, which was a significant injury that he is still rehabbing, and the ankle injury.
Some minor injuries and one significant injury (hamstring). More in 3 years than Santana has had his entire career.
Until I see Hughes in the spring, I am still not convinced he is over his hamstring injury.
Mike Mussina, who suffered a less significant hamstring injury in 2006 than Hughes, firmly believes that injury caused him to subconsciously change his mechanics, which lead to another hamstring injury and the loss of his velocity and movement on his pitches last year.
All last season, Moose wrapped his leg about as tightly as one can without losing circulation in the leg. That’s how much the hamstring hindered him.
Its why he is spending this off-season doing a lot of heavy work to strengthen his legs.
Hamstring injuries are serious for pitchers. Especially power pitchers like Hughes.
I really hope he can overcome it. But, to say it hasn’t hampered him, as some believe, is just incorrect. He hasn’t been the same pitcher since the injury.
Hopefully, his off-season program will keep him healthy in 2008.
We’re seeing information that is coming from very high sources that the Tampa/Minnesota deal is being finalized. Garza and Young are in it, along with 3-4 other players.
Bobcat,
I feel guilty, like this is some kind of insider trade information. Guilty pleasure, but guilty nonetheless.
Thanks for the updates.
Okay, I’ve got to go … things are heating up. Remember what I’ve told you.. you read what you are allowed to read. I’ll report later.
assuming Melky is gone by opening day, what would you think of Matsui, Damon, Abreu from left to right in the outfield, picking up Corey Patterson as a 4th OF? A great pinch runner or defensive replacement. Or just a holdover until we can call someone else up midseason.
The Twins and Tampa Bay Rays are close to finalizing a multi-player deal, according to several sources with knowledge of the discussions. The deal could be announced as soon as today.
The main pieces changning teams would be outfielder Delmon Young and righthander Matt Garza. But indications were strong on Wednesday that as many as six players could be involved.
In addition to Garza, the Twins would send Tampa Bay shortstop Jason Bartlett and reliever Juan Rincon for Young, shortstop Brendan Harris and outfielder Jason Pridie.
Real quick:
Garza, Rincon, Bartlett for Young, Harris and Pridie.
Back later.
Bobcat dude your killing me. This is sooo juicy! Me likey likey!!Now just open your flood gates and give us the scoop.
Mel,
I figured SJ was saying Santana has not had a serious injury. I just wanted to know what other injuries, besides the ones we know about has Hughes had, if any. I guess, what I’m asking is has he ever had a problem with a shoulder or elbow injury in the minor leagues? Because that would concern me more than the hammie and certainly more than the ankle. Unless he’s had a lot of hamstring problems in that past.
I’m glad Santana hasn’t had a serious injury in the past, but that’s not necessarily indicative of the future. For anyone, that is.
It just seems like an exercise in futility to try to determine what contributions will be made by the young 3. You can guess, but you can’t know. Same with Santana, but I suppose he at least has a body work in the ML that says that probably he will be very valuable to the Yankees. But nothing’s written in stone. And it could likely be that IPK, who everyone seems to be more willing to give up, could very well end up being the one they should not have given up at all. And there is always that intangible, will Santana be able to do it in NY????????
I don’t want to be a downer here, because this is certainly an exciting topic and it’s fun to think about the possible positive outcomes here, but I guess I’m wary that things don’t always turn out as you plan. And it should be somewhat of a concern that trading Cabrera leaves a hole
Mel,
I figured SJ was saying Santana has not had a serious injury. I just wanted to know what other injuries, besides the ones we know about has Hughes had, if any. I guess, what I’m asking is has he ever had a problem with a shoulder or elbow injury in the minor leagues? Because that would concern me more than the hammie and certainly more than the ankle. Unless he’s had a lot of hamstring problems in that past.
I’m glad Santana hasn’t had a serious injury in the past, but that’s not necessarily indicative of the future. For anyone, that is.
It just seems like an exercise in futility to try to determine what contributions will be made by the young 3. You can guess, but you can’t know. Same with Santana, but I suppose he at least has a body work in the ML that says that probably he will be very valuable to the Yankees. But nothing’s written in stone. And it could likely be that IPK, who everyone seems to be more willing to give up, could very well end up being the one they should not have given up at all. And there is always that intangible, will Santana be able to do it in NY????????
I don’t want to be a downer here, because this is certainly an exciting topic and it’s fun to think about the possible positive outcomes here, but I guess I’m wary that things don’t always turn out as you plan. And it should be somewhat of a concern that trading Cabrera leaves a hole
Trit,
True or False, Johan put up a 4.00 ERA last season in Minnesota?
True or False, NYC is a pressure cauldron.
If you want to disagree agree with me, fine, but please have the class to support your argument. Simply to ignore the facts (4.00 ERA in 2nd half, more pressure in NYC than in Minnesota, adjustment period for some of the greatest players in the game – A-Rod, Roger) because you think Johan is “really, really good” is a little naivete and beneath me. Come back with an argument or don’t waste by time.
Bobcat,
I don’t think, given Santana’s NTC and extension price, that the Twins have all that much leverage here. I could see them getting Kennedy and Melky and parts but I don’t think they’re in a position to get more.
Bobcat,
Maybe I misunderstood you, but I thought earlier you stated that Hughes would not be included in a deal for Santana. I am assuming that Joba is off the table. That leaves IPK as the only one of the big boys who may be included in a deal…. Am I missing something or is that it?
Here’s an update on Bobcat’s Young to Twinkies deal.
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=276
Well I guess the Twins don’t need Melky now. Now they’ll probably ask for Hughes and Kennedy.
mlbtraderumors.com now has the deal
Wow! That rumor really didn’t die! La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins are close to a multiplayer deal. They’d send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Juan Rincon to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie.
why do you people look to bobcat as the be all, end all in this? he knows nothing more than anyone else on this blog about who may be included in the deal and what players are being talked about.
This deal is going to make Tampa Bay significantly better next year. If they get a better bullpen they are going to be a Monster team for years to come.
I don’t know why it double-posted. Sorry.
I wouldn’t say that. Delmon Young will be their right fielder.
“Wang proved this year that he is the furthest thing from a #1 starter†Wang would be a #2 or #3 starter on most teams. That’s far from “the furthest thing from a #1 starterâ€
———————————————————–
Wangs ERA+ over 3 MLB years: 119, Last 2 years: 123
Matsuzaka ERA+: 108
Please name me some #2 or #3 SPs with a career ERA+ of 119.
51 forever,
Don’t need to be a hater. When you bring the goods, then we’ll follow you like the blind sheep you think we are.
“I don’t know why it double-posted. Sorry.”
well, it’s nice you gave us the choice to read it with either a blue OR a white background
51 forever,
Bobcat is on the level. If you have read his posts for the last number of months I think you will agree.
Delmon Young will play RF for the Twins.
If Melky is traded to the Twins, he will either play LF or CF, depending on another deal the Twins are working on.
I think its folly to look at a small set of numbers for Santana and conclude he can’t handle pitching in NY.
Under that theory, how do you explain his career 1.17 ERA at Yankee Stadium?
He played on a team last year that couldn’t hit a lick. If you don’t think that affects pitching, you don’t know baseball.
If he is traded to the Yankees, he is playing for a team that scored 968 runs last year. He will also be playing in a home park that is heaven for lefthanded pitchers.
If traded to NY, the one thing you won’t have to worry about with Santana is his makeup. He isn’t a lunatic like Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown. He has a Damon-like personality and will relish pitching in big games. Its what he has wanted his entire career.
I’d like to see a nude opera because when they hit those high notes, I bet you can really see it in the genitals.
Delmon Young can’t play CF. And they have holes in both CF and LF because White retired.
I like Bobcat because he’s accurate, stealth,self deprecating,and it seems that he’s privy to some inside info. He doesn’t put others down that don’t agree with him.He basically says take it or leave it(his info.)
If it was that easy every team would do it, Santana is special, Beckett is special, if the Yankees make a deal they will still have two stud prospects ready to contribute at the MLB level (Joba and Hughes or Kennedy) and they have several in the minors, out of which at least 1 or 2 of which will likely rise to a Hughes level (my money is on Betances). So theYankees can aquire Santana and stick to the pla of developing young pitchers.
The Twins won’t trade Garza and Santana, at least not both in the offseason. They need to get blown away by an offer now, so I would assume if this deal with TB goes down, the Twins will demand Melky, Hughes, and Chamberlain/Kennedy. No thanks, because the Twins will rape our minors now, if they trade Santana.
Also I get the impression Bobcat wants you to think . He has to be a yankee fan that’s a plus in my book.
SJ44,
I think your comments on Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown are wrong. When they were dominant with the Diamondbacks, Padres, they were fierce, intimidating, and competitive. When they failed here, they suddenly became lunatics. Is that whey when we landed RJ in December 2004 everyone was pumped? B/C we landed a luantic who obviously could not handle NYC. Wrong. Ex poste comments vs. ex ante.
“True or False, Johan put up a 4.00 ERA last season in Minnesota?”
False. Johan had a 3.33 Era last season. And “in Minnesota” it was a 3.76 ERA. On the road it was a 2.95 ERA.
“True or False, NYC is a pressure cauldron.”
False. New York City is a big city that lots of people live and work in. It is not a cauldron. Cauldrons are large metal pots used for cooking.
Look at Johan’s career stats. A career 141 ERA+. Elite at ERA, WHIP, and K:BB ratio.
His career ERA at Yankee Stadium is 1.17. So even is NYC is some bubbly pressure packed cauldron, he has obviously fared well at Yankee Stadium so far.
He never gets injured and throws 200+ IP every single season. The Yankees rotation was fragile last year and only Pettitte cracked 200 IP.
The reason you have no clue is because you are the only person arguing against Santana based on his performance alone. That’s not even the issue. Everyone knows he is the best pitcher in baseball. The question is, is it worth giving up Hughes/Melky and 2 others to acquire that quality of pitcher and at his contract price?
So I repeat, Ed Whitson, you clearly have no clue.
LOL some poster on NYYFAN is going crazy he wants to know who Bobcat really is
So now that the Twins will have Jason Pridie will they not be interested in Melky?? Then it would make it harder for the Yanks to get Santana.
To change the subject matter a bit I have a question about arbitration on current Yankee players. I see that the following to be the case this year
Players eligible for arbitration: INF Wilson Betemit, RHP Brian Bruney, 2B Robinson Cano and RHP Chien-Ming Wang.
My question is will the Yankees actually go to arbitration with these guys especially Cano and Wang or does it make sense to do somewhat longer term deal now to avoid the process. Bruney I could care less about he is a head case
in a not-so-shocking turn of events, i agree completely with sj44. hughes has POTENTIAL. that’s it. he has the POTENTIAL to be pretty good. he also has the POTENTIAL to have his career impacted by injury. or to be completely hittable. santana has been a dominant pitcher in the AL for a long enough time that, going in to last season, gammons was referring to the cy young as the “johan santana award.”
if you’ve got a chance to land that guy by giving up a slap-hitting centerfielder and a COMPLETELY UNPROVEN, but POTENTIALLY great starting pitcher, you do it.
and if they don’t, everyone on this board is going to be skewering steinbrenner and cashman the first time hughes gives up six runs in two innings or grabs at his hammy again.
and, for the most part, i’m 100% behind your posts, pete, but comparing santana to hampton and zito is laughable at best.
It’s worth noting that Roger Clemens was once the surest thing in baseball after winning two more Cy Young Awards in Toronto, but had a really hard time adjusting to a championship team.
The Yanks won in 1999 despite Clemens – not because of him.
Both Clemens and A-Rod took a long time to adjust to New York and these are probably the two greatest players in baseball since World War II.
“Zambrano isn’t as good a pitcher as Beckett.
Just looking at stats isn’t the way to evaluate these guys.”
Beckett: 116 ERA+/6 yrs – WHIP: 1.228
Zambrano: 130 ERA+/6 yrs – WHIP: 1.285
So Beckett is a better pitcher? Why?
You don’t use stats to ‘evaluate these guys’? What then, shoe size?
Hughes proved a little something in the playoffs. And in his first ever road start in Texas. And when he destroyed AA at a precocious age. He’s been the best pitching project in baseball because he projects to be great, not just good but great. Giving him to the Twins while they have such little leverage would be idiocy.
Peter, I agree completely. I don’t want IPK/Hughes getting traded and then winning a Cy Young playing for another team.
Sox aren’t in this – they don’t need him. Twins are just using the Sox to drive up the price. if anything, he’ll go to the Mutts.
I’d take my chances with the kids. The Yankees don’t need anymore pitching with addition of the Big 3 – if they do, it’s doing everything they can to get Andy back.
bobcat, wow.
Sj, i disagree with you, i think Beckett and Zambrano are very similiar pitchers. You might think that Beckett has that extra umf, i dont see it translate into performance. We can disagree
EdWinston: Mike Mussina pitched better in his 1st year as a yankee, Jason Giambi put up very good numbers his 1st year. Arod put up 286/375/512 his 1st year, pretty good numbers. Tino Martinez put up equal numbers in his 1st year.
Randy Johnson and Kevin Brown were lunatics before they ever hit NY.
When Brown was in Florida, he once challenged Jim Leyland to a fight. He and Gary Sheffield also had a memorable tussle one night after a game.
When he was in LA, he was upset at one of the pilots after one of his private jet trips home and they began scuffling at the airport.
He punched out many a wall and watercooler in all of his stops. He has few, if any friends in the game of baseball.
Randy Johnson was always a miserable SOB. Every stop he was at he alienated teammates, fought with managers, coaches and the media and was just an overall moody, miserable guy.
Both were tolerated because they could pitch. When their skills eroded, their BS was less tolerable.
Johan Santana is NOTHING like these guys. Neither in demeanor nor talent.
When the Yankees acquired both Johnson and Brown, they were on the downside of their careers. Johan Santana is only 28 years old. He’s in the PRIME of his career.
As a person, he is one of the most well-liked and respected guys in the game. Neither Johnson nor Brown ever had Santana’s popularlity nor respect among their peers.
The situations are not remotely similar.
hughes cabrera tabata and kennedy that is utterly insane!
How about comparing competition? Zambrano pitches in the weakest division in baseball. Beckett the strongest.
Beckett hasn’t only done well in the post-season. His domination in the post-season is at historic levels.
Put Zambrano in the AL East and Beckett in the NL Central and then you have a better idea of comparing them by using stats.
Just using stats without context doesn’t advance the argument.
Not when the guys pitch in two entirely different leagues and divisions.
What if Minnesota demanded both Phil and Ian?
Would you be so eager to trade for Santana then?
To SJ44:
If/when this passes (Garza, Rincon, Bartlett for Young, Harris and Pridie) between the Twins and (Devil) Rays, what kind of effect(s) would you expect it to have on a potential Santana trade?
Trit,
2nd half Johan had a 4.04 ERA…that’s a fact….check ESPN you can’t argue that.
Best pitcher? Hmm….Beckett won the Cy Young and the WS, so I guess Johan is not the best pitcher.
ERA in Yankee Stadium? Since 2002, you realize he has pitched 19 innings in Yankee Stadium. Wow. Called inadequate sample size. Take a basic statistics class you uneducated twit.
Phil and Ian is too much.
The plus side here about the Young/Garza deal is that Austin Jackson looks like he’ll be out of the picture here.
it seems like they could take a deal around Tabata, and have Young, Pridie, and Tabata in the OF of the future.
if minny demands both hughes and kennedy you simply walk away.
I am excited by the fact that some are taking this twins/rays trade as an indication that they will now not deal Santana. Although, I am not sure I believe that, but it is the best scenario as a Yankees fan. If he stays until FA then we will outbid all teams and keep our studs.
migames,
Giambi was on steroids in 2002.
A-Rod’s performance in 2004 was disappointing and worse than 2003.
“Put Zambrano in the AL East and Beckett in the NL Central and then you have a better idea of comparing them by using stats.”
Beckett has pitched efectivly in the AL east just one season. He stunk his 1st year, he was nasty last year. So you are saying that based on one year of beckett pitching well in the AL east makes him a better pitcher than zambrano…ok
The Delmon Young trade is the first step in the Santana trade Octopuss. The Bobcat prophecy is starting.
Rebecca- I’m excited about the possibility of getting Santana, but I wouldn’t be excited enough to give up Phil and Ian. The Twins may have asked for that kind of package at some point, and they should because they definitely want to better themselves, but that is just too big of a price for Cashman to pay.
Ed Whitson –
I, for one, was certainly NOT pumped when “The Unit” was brought to NY. I hated the idea. Did not want him one bit. However, as much I don’t like him, don’t like his orneriness, he didn’t do horribly here. Yes, he needed a lot of run support, but he didn’t give up. He pitched in pain, and he pitched a lot of innings. Unfortunately, it caught up with him at playoff time and he was a bust after September. For both years. But he clearly did not fit here, and I never really understood why he wanted to come here, Yankee mystique and all.
SJ44 –
I really have no idea what kind of person Johan Santana is. If he is as you say, in the mold of Johnny Damon, then, well, I suppose he may not have a whole of trouble in NY. Heck, if he’s anything like Bobby Abreu, even, he’s going to love it here. And lefties do fare much better in Yankee Stadium.
Okay – so, the new Yankee Stadium — same dimensions, same sun exposure, same wind exposure, same everything? Will it still be lefty-friendly?
Bottom line is if the Yankees do manage to be the team that gets Santana, it is not a bad thing. And even having to give up one of the big 3 is not a bad thing. It is one of the reasons you have want to have a surplus of young talent. I do understand all this. I also understand that the idea is to continue to replenish the talent pool, so that when someone is used as a trade chip, there is other talent to develop for down the road. Actually, I think the only reason people are keen for IPK to be the one to leave is because we saw comparatively less of him at the ML level than we did of Hughes and Joba. And though he was impressive, he has not been “adopted” as Phil the Phranchise and Joba (the Hutt) Rules.
I guess my concern is if the deal includes Melky AND Tabata AND Jackson, doesn’t that leave the Yankees thin in outfielders for 2009 and beyond? Not to mention 2008? And also, none of the available CFs are an ideal fix.
rebecca – yes. kennedy PROJECTS as mike mussina, at best. and the odds he ends up being that good are incredibly slim. hughes PROJECTS as an injury-prone #2 or 3 who, as sj44 noted, has command of TWO pitches, both of which suffered greatly after the hamstring.
as far as not wanting to see either win the cy young for the team they’re traded to, i wouldn’t worry too much about it. too many pitchers are far better than either of those two. and santana is chief among them.
dont trade hughes, melkman or joba. dont do it
how is anyone actually having the beckett/zambrano conversation? did anybody watch the playoffs last year? or in 2003, for that matter? are you people delusional? it’s a drag that beckett plays in boston, but he’s a great pitcher. period.
Keep Hughes and Joba but Kennedy is the weaker one and will not start the season in the rotation anyway.
I’m all for young pitching but many of you want to rebuild.You can’t win and rebuild at the same time.You need a stater that can pitch all year get 200 strikouts and be a ace.Pettitte and WAng can’t be that.As long as Hughes,Joba and Cano are still here I say okay.
There’s no way we’re giving them Hughes and Kennedy.
I could see the arguments for doing Hughes/Cabrera, but I don’t think we’ll have to. I’d go Kennedy/Cabrera/Jackson. If they say no, then I would consider messing around the margins by adding a prospect but nobody prominent. If they still say no, then I walk away. I would love Santana, and I think we can get him for this price. If not, then we should take our chances and try to trade for him midseason.
Giambi was on steroids in 2002.
he was also on steroids in 2001, 2000, 1999, 1998…
Arod 2004 season was not disappointing. .286/.375/.512 those number arent disappointing at all. You might like boooing him because he has frost in his hair, doesnt mean he had a disappointing season.
Guys,
You have to come to grips with reality here. Johan Santana is the best pitcher in the game. His numbers the last four seasons completely blow away anyone else’s in baseball, let alone anyone else’s in the American League. He is a lock for 200+ innings. He’s averaged over 220 the last four seasons. And look at his WHIP. Its unreal. Wake Up. Phil Hughes and/or Joba Chamberlain will NEVER be this guy. AND AND AND He’s only 29 years old. Now, if I were Minnesota, I would demand Cano, number one, and then one of the three pitchers. People, wake up. Santana is that good and the Twins will not be taking a bag full of no-name prospects. And, as a Yankee fan, you have to do that. And don’t anyone tell me how mediocre Santana has been in the postseason. By that logic we don’t need A-Rod or Santana, and we should resign Scott Brosius and David Cone out of retirement because they were always pretty good in the playoffs. Bottom line is Santana is the best pitcher in the game, 29 years old, and the Yankees should attempt to acquire him if the Twins are willing to trade him.
“Beckett won the Cy Young and the WS, so I guess Johan is not the best pitcher.”
Beckett didnt win the Cy Young….CC did
Hughes projects as a #1. Not as an injury prone #2 or #3 don’t let irrational desire for Santana let you devalue the best pitching prospect in baseball.
“So you are saying that based on one year of beckett pitching well in the AL east makes him a better pitcher than zambrano…ok”
How soon we forget. Is this not the same Beckett that dominated the Yankees when the lowly Marlins beat them in the World Series? Get real…Beckett has more than one good year of pitching.
I may be dreaming this, but wasn’t there a game during Randy Johnson’s first stint in Arizona when Luis Gonzalez incurred Johnson’s wrath after he made a critical error during one of Johnson’s starts? I think that Randy later yelled at Gonzalez in the dugout. Surprising because Gonzo has always had a reputation for playing hard and being a super-nice guy. I just thought of it when I saw people comparing Johnson and Santana’s attitudes. Thankfully Johan is nothing like Johnson, behavior-wise.
Thanks guys…wow, I knew there were some intense feelings about this, but didn’t realize we’d be so divided on it…
(I would never trade both Hughes and Kennedy, but that’s just me)
Obviously since Garza was traded and if Santana is also gone the Yanks will have to give up 1 of the big 3. Which we are already knew because they are not going to get rid of 2 pitchers without getting a pitcher back from the Yanks that they can put in their rotation right away.
“How soon we forget. Is this not the same Beckett that dominated the Yankees when the lowly Marlins beat them in the World Series? Get real…Beckett has more than one good year of pitching.”
Why dont people read? I think Beckett is amazing, great pitcher. ONE OF THE BEST, but so is Zambrano. Thats my argument here.
Beckett didn’t win the Cy Young this year. He has won 2 Cy Youngs before his 29th birthday though. Putting him in a pretty exclusive class of pitcher.
Peter Gammons himself, as big a Red Sox shill as there is in the business, calls Santana the best pitcher in the game. Its a belief universally shared in the game.
If you don’t believe, fine by me.
However, if you think the guy is going to cower in the corner and be a bust because he didn’t have a good second half last year…….let’s just say we will agree to disagree.
The Twins-Rays deal begins the moves the Twins need to make to make a Santana trade more palatable for them.
Rebecca,
If the Yankees wanted to trade both Hughes and Kennedy to the Twins, they could have had Santana two weeks ago. They don’t want to do it and if Cash keeps stringing it out (which he is very good at doing) he won’t have to.
I don’t believe both Kennedy and Hughes would be in a Santana deal.
Hey Ed for some reason you seem obsessed with Johan’s 2nd half numbers. So here are his splits over the last few seasons.
2003 1st half: 3.00 ERA
2003 2nd half: 3.13 ERA
2004 1st half: 3.78 ERA
2004 2nd half: 1.21 ERA
2005 1st half: 3.98 ERA
2005 2nd half: 1.59 ERA
2006 1st half: 2.95 ERA
2006 2nd half: 2.54 ERA
2007 1st half: 2.75 ERA
2007 2nd half: 4.04 ERA
Ok so why are you weighing the 2nd half of 2007 so highly?
You are judging him on 98 innings pitched. I would rather judge him on the entire 1300+ innings he has thrown in MLB. And those 1300 innings ay he is the best pitcher in baseball over the last 5 seasons.
You think Beckett is better because he won a world series? Once again, this shows you have no clue about evalutaing baseball players. You judge an individual player based on 98 innings and a team accomplishment.
You still clearly do not have a clue. Once again look back at these posts. Everyone is arguing on what the right price for Santana is in a trade. You are the only person who thinks that Santana is just not good enough independent of what they would have to give to get him. That’s not even the issue here!
GUYS! DELMON YOUNG TO TWINS
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/?p=276
Courtesy of my friend David…
not sure if it’s final, but if it is, it would mean that Minnesota would have no reason to ask for Melky…
Correct, Santana, not Beckett, has won 2 Cy Young’s prior to his 28th birthday.
We need an edit button! lol
SJ44,
While Tabata might have had the speed to play CF when he was first drafted, I don’t think he has the range to be out there anymore. Every scouting report I’ve read so far on the kid says the tool he’s most likely to lose as he gets older is his speed. His body type is not built to be a plus runner as he ages.
I realize SB totals are not the be-all end-all in determining range for a player, but it’ll at least give us a view into what’s going on:
Year Age AB SB CS SB%
2005 16 156 22 6 79%
2006 17 319 15 5 75%
2007 18 411 15 7 68%
He was a great baserunner at the age of 16. The past two years, not so much. While he could play CF at the age of 16, I doubt he could still pull it off. Therefore, I don’t think we can afford to say that Jackson is expendable since Tabata can take over for him in CF.
rebecca,
it means minnesota would have no reason to ask for jackson. melky could still play one of the corner OF positions.
…okay, apparently I’m slow and need to not go to class or something.
My apologies.
Delmon Young is a corner OF they need him to replace White, not Hunter. This has no impact at all on whether or not Melky goes to the Twins.
and btw, Beckett was 1-1 against the Yanks in the 2003 series.
is it possible that the rays might be better than the jays this year?
They have good pitching…
I just hate how Hughes was always the man in the last couple of years in the Yanks minors. Now all of a sudden Joba comes along throw 95 mph and has only been pitching for a couple of years and now all of a sudden Joba is the untouchable and Hughes can or will be dealt to a team that has no leverage and a pitcher that might be a free agent after this season. Kennedy should be enough along with others to get Santana and the untouchables should be Hughes, Joba and Cano. Hughes is only 21!!!
Migames,
I was reacting to your statement that seemed to be saying that Beckett had only pitched well for one year…but’s all good and interesting discussion.
Phil Hughes does not project to a #1. He just doesn’t.
He isn’t as highly rated as Joba Chamberlain, who does project as a #1.
The reality is, while he is a very good prospect, Joba Chamberlain has passed him in the eyes of both the Yankees and the rest of baseball as a prospect.
It has nothing to do with any irrational desire for Johan Santana. It has to do with listening to the people in baseball whose opinions I respect.
Don’t you find it odd that Joba Chamberlain is off limits for trades but Phil Hughes is not? If Hughes was viewed as a #1 guy, he would be off limits for trade.
Doesn’t mean he won’t have a very good ML career. He may actually become a #1 guy.
But, at the present time, its not how he is viewed by scouts and the Yankees.
Rebecca-
Thsats a big surpise.Melky would of been a good throw in player for us in the trade.
Migames: Toronto can pitch.
I imagine both teams will be better than Baltimore…I can see Toronto challenging for 2nd place if they can get an offense together…Tampa’s not there quite yet, still on the young end.
This is how misleading 98 innings of data is. Bullpens give up inherited runs all the time, but those arned runs go on the record of the guy who let the runner on base.
Let’s suppose that Johan was the victim of a few of these inhertited runners scoring. If even just 4 less earned runs were charge to his record in the 2nd half, that 2nd half ERA would drop from 4.04 to 3.67. Now obviously we can’t just erase those runs. But the point is this: Based on the 98 IP he thre in 2007 a difference between his 4.04 ERA and a 3.67 ERA is 4 earned runs. Come on dude, get a real sense of how to judge a player.
SJ
how do you asses the 1-2-3 punch of the rays: Kazmir, Shields and now Garza…? You live down there, whats your feel?
The two best pitching prospects in baseball, according to scouts, right now are Clayton Kershaw of the Dodgers and Joba Chamberlain.
Those are the Top Two. Phil Hughes is not rated higher than those two guys. He isn’t rater higher than Buchholz right now.
It doesn’t mean isn’t a very good prospect. Best pitching prospect in baseball? No, he is not.
Wins. Postseason wins.
Are you kidding me? Wins are a terrible way to evaluate a pitcher. I would say I’m disappointed, but I’m getting used to cherry-picked stats here
Why anybody believes Buzah! at nyyfans (re Hughes) is beyond belief. The guy is a notorious BS artist. That forum is filled with naive kids and he likes to be their “hero”.
I believe his “claim to fame” was, a few years ago; he was one of the writers on some poorly receieved 3rd rate talk show that got the ax after a couple of weeks. Still, he fancies himself (or pretends to be) some big celebrity.
He also writes some silly blog filled with exclamation points. What a tool.
I believe they’ll come in 3rd place next year and probably win 80 something games if Garza realizes his potential. The additions of Garza in the rotation and Rincon in the pen is going to make them very formidable.
FYI Tony(the drunk) Larussa,mgr of the St Louis Cardinals pled guilty (for drunk driving) and received 6mos probation and the loss of his drivers license.Glad we didn’t get him!!!
I like their Big 3 migames.
They are a very interesting team. They also have a couple of young arms who are promising and may make the back end of their rotation.
The key is their bullpen. You can’t say their bullpen was awful last year because it would be an insult to awful bullpens everywhere.
Their bullpen was the worst bullpen I have ever seen in my life.
If they can improve it, they are going to be tough.
Jason Bartlett gives the Rays the type of defensive SS they have lacked. He can really pick it.
Better defense, a good Top 3 and a very good offense, along with a good manager, makes the Rays a much improved team.
Wow. I guess the fact that the Young/Garza trade is happening kinda give Bobcat credibility huh? lol Very impressive!
Right now, it looks like the rookie, Pridie in center, Young in right, Cuddyer moves from right to left and Kubel as 4th outfielder and SH.
SJ44,
Hughes projects as a #1. He really does. Don’t forget that he was throwing a no-hitter on the ROAD in a hitters park in his second major league start when he pulled his hammy.
Everything is starting to fall into place now toward a Santana trade. Delmon Young really helps the Twins in that he fills a void in their outfield, plus they needed the extra power. Young provides MUCH more power than Jason Tyner or anyone else that they would stick in left. They have Michael Cuddyer in right. Now they need a center fielder, and Melky would fit. The pieces are coming together. Based on how Cashman has been incognito for a bit, something is definitely going on. The Yankees and Twins each have what the other needs. Let’s make a deal!!
the allegiance to hughes is absolutely ridiculous. just because the kid came up through the system and showed promise doesn’t mean he’s god’s gift. he’s had injury problems already (as sj44 chronicled) and doesn’t have command of his changeup. he lost velocity on his fastball and there’s no guarantee he’ll get it back. this makes his other pitches even weaker.
there’s AS GOOD a chance that he’s a bust as there is that he pans out. young players get traded sometimes. it happens. the beauty of having an improved farm system is that you don’t have to make certain players untouchable because they can probably be replaced.
SJ44 – ERA+ is adjusted by league.
“Hughes projects as a #1. He really does. Don’t forget that he was throwing a no-hitter on the ROAD in a hitters park in his second major league start when he pulled his hammy.”
one outing against a terrible team does not mean the kid projects as a number 1.
how about the several outings where he got bombed after the injury? does that mean he projects as a mediocre number 4?
I think Rebecca deserves props for giving us the news on the Young trade too! lol
Here’s what I can tell you:
1) Twins/Rays about to be announced (6 players as noted above). Great job, Bill Smith.
2) Twins now will address CF and with Garza gone, have less interest in moving Slowey for Crisp.
3) Rotation currently is projected to be:
Liriano
Baker
Slowey
Bonser
Perkins
4) The Twins dumped $2M in Rincon on the Rays. Young gets $1.67M per. They are not taking on Crisp.
5) CF and SP become immediate needs for the Twins. They have a fork in the road and are aggressively shopping Nathan, to a team in the NL Central that has some pieces they could use (CF, 2B, etc.).
6) The Twins have/had the best bullpen in baseball in recent years and will elevate someone like Guerrier or Neshek in that spot for a year until Edwardo Morlan is ready.
7) Pending the Nathan trade, the NYY trade will get faster feet and the pieces more clarity.
One outing by a 20 year old who has always projected as a #1 is not an isolated event. He destroyed AA at 19/20 and his closest historical comp was Beckett.
So are we all in agreement that next year Baltimore will have locked up the AL East basement by the end of June?
nathan to the brewers
That Pridie kid was pretty good in AAA last year. He’ll be their center fielder more than likely. This is Pridie’s OBP SLG OPS last year in AA/AAA .352 .487 .839
You would think now the Mets dont have a good chance to get Santana. With Garza gone the Twins will be looking for a package headed by a big pitcher not outfielder. The best the Mets can offer would be 2 outfielders and a lower level pitcher. The Twins trade options with teams could be made smaller day by day.
He doesn’t project as a #1 at this time to the people that matters….scouts and teams in the game.
Its not a knock to him. Its just the way he is viewed right now. Which is why he isn’t on the untouchable list.
Cuddayer is moving to third base, not to LF. He may move to first if the Twins deal Morneau.
But, as of right now, Cuddayer is slated to be the Opening Day third baseman for the Twins.
What were Hughes’ injuries, besides the hamstring and the ankle?
migames: Official?
Bobcat, is there any chance that Melancon and or Ohlendorff is part of this deal?
migames,
I am not an A-Rod hater so you should retract your comment. 2004 was disappointing to what we expected and his abilities. It’s that simple. Good numbers, but disappointing.
Man, these Twins really get around. These trades are the kind of thing that excites a fan base. Bill Smith is showing that he is aggressive and unafraid to make moves to make his team better. You can’t be too passive and afraid to follow your instincts, the instincts which may be telling Cashman to deal for Santana, who knows?
I agree with you Bobcat. If they move Nathan to Milwaukee for Richie Weeks and some other parts (the rumor I heard the other day), I think they move quickly on a Santana to the Yankees deal.
Its also interesting to see where Miguel Cabrera lands. If he goes to the Dodgers or Angels, that kills the Twins ability to leverage one of those teams against the Yankees in this transaction.
GreenBeret:
There are several lists that include over 20 names total.
migames:
There are a few teams in the NL Central that need a closer.
I don’t think the Angels or Dodgers are gonna pay $25 million a year.
“Why anybody believes Buzah! at nyyfans (re Hughes) is beyond belief. The guy is a notorious BS artist. That forum is filled with naive kids and he likes to be their “heroâ€.
I believe his “claim to fame†was, a few years ago; he was one of the writers on some poorly receieved 3rd rate talk show that got the ax after a couple of weeks. Still, he fancies himself (or pretends to be) some big celebrity.
He also writes some silly blog filled with exclamation points. What a tool.”
I agree 100%. This guy has no idea what he is talking about, he never did. Don’t take anything he says serious, as you said he’s a BS artist by every definition of the word.
rebecca;
not offical, its what i read somewhere…but bobcat seems to know. I love it.
My guess is the brewers, but i have no clue
I know nothing about Pirdie. Is he as good/better than Melky? Any chance Pirdie comes to NY with Santana if Melky is part of the trade to the Twins?
OK, BCat. Thanks,
I’ll forward my list to Smith and let him pick. Giambi, Farnsworth, Eric Duncan, Andel Chavez, Alberto Gonzales…etc.
SJ44:
Correct. Cuddyer to 3B. OF is still a priority.
Nathan qualifies as a “difference-maker”. Brilliant move to trade him now. Supply and demand.
Remember yesterday’s posts:
It will happen in domino-style; there needs to be several deals at once; the Twins will be better in 2008-2009 than 2007, without Santana.
Note: The Twins picked up Pridie in the Rule 5 draft in 2005 from TB and ended up returning him.
Bill Smith is on his way to being the 2008 Executive of the Year.
That’s Angel Chavez. Andel is his younger brother
migames:
Look at the teams in the NL Central. One team just added 15 wins by securing a closer from another.
There are three teams that desperately need a closer. The Twins will do well with any of them.
Agree bobcat.
Their new stadium is slated to open in 2010.
With the moves Smith is making, they will be a very good team by the time they go into the new stadium.
Precisely what they have to do in order to satisfy the fans and politicians of Minnesota who have put in almost 370 million of public money toward their new stadium.
wfan- Nathan to the brewers?! What!?
Does acquiring Delmon Young make it any less likely that the Twins will ask for Jackson or Tabata?
LOL no they did not add 15 wins to their team
Wfan is saying the Twins want WAY more than Hughes and Melky.
Nathan is very important to three teams in the NL Central, two of which are contenders.
Think about what they have in spare parts and what the Twins need.
Bill Smith won’t need a gun and a mask for this one.
Is there a remote chance that all of the dominoes fall before the winter meetings?
sj,
listen i hear what you’re syaing but, hughes was the best pitching prospect in baseball last year. well, between him and bailey. everyone loved him. i understand he has to develop his change but after that look out. he was just starting to get the feel for it (just ask teixera), with two fastball, curve, eventually his slider (from what i’ve read hes allowed to throw in in the BP and occasionally during games) all he’ll need is an avg change up.
joba has 4 pitches yes, but his curve and his change are still developing. he got away pitching in the bullpen with 2 pitches.
if hughes was called up in 06 and was used in the bullpen i have no doubt in my mind he would have dominated.
joba might be ahead of hughes because of his status as a RP last year but don’t give up on hughes, hes 21, and hes looking to show alot this year and I have all the faith in the world that at 21/22 he will show that he will be a future 1a pitcher with joba being the 1b.
Bobcat a.k.a (Deep Throat) tell me more. Why would anyone question your stuff? Cooler heads do prevail. What parking garage do you work from? Should we wait for the flower pot on your back porch too?Did Nixon know before the cover up?
Ooops Bobcat sorry I got carried away, my bad wrong set of events. Back to the yankees. will Cano or Melky be yankees
in 2008? Do you think Andy will return to NY?(just curious what you think)
cubs/brewers…
Jennifer:
Russo is reading from AP/WFAN wire reports. Ignore him and remember what I’ve posted about what you read.
So who wins the AL Central next year?
Cleveland or Minnesota?
(Detroit will be in first until the all-star break and then suddenly forget what the concept of ‘winning’ means)
How about Nathan to the Cubs for a deal to include Pie?
trit:
The Reds just got a LOT better. They had the worst BP in baseball. Not any more.
if the twins get pie, forget melky. Pie is better than Nathan
pat:
You’re pretty smart. Keep thinking like a GM, and know that with Nathan’s contract at ONLY $6.0M for 2008, he is VERY desirable. Up the ante, though.
Jenifer,
Could it be that WFAN’s sources are the ones Bobcat was referring to in his disclaimer?
” What you read in the media is what you are allowed to read in the media. The “leaks†are purposeful; the posturing and positioning of other teams is a standard by which all teams operate. The real information isn’t made public until it’s supposed to be.”
migames:
Think from the NYY’s front office. What do you NOT want to give up? What do you have plenty of? What is easily replace? What did your potential trade partner just give up?
Hey Peter
If Boston gets Santana the 2008-10 Yanks are toast (yes, I’m talking at least 3 years of second place fighting for the wildcard misery). You could probably forget a Yankees World Series championship in those years, too. Santana/ Beckett/ Schilling/ Matsuzaka/ Wakefield with Wakefield and rotation backup Lester being more proven than Hughes, Chamberlain, or Kennedy, the latter two combined! Who’s to say Erik Bedard or Scott Kazmir wouldn’t like to sign on once he becomes a free agent? Who wouldn’t want to join a rotation of Santana/ Beckett/ Matsuzaka/ Bucholz or Lester? What if Bucholz or Lester becomes a #3 starter? So spare me your “the Yanks need to hold onto the kids.” esp. with the prospect of their ace Pettitte retiring. G.t.f.u.o.h. with Wang/ Hughes/ Mussina/ Chamberlain/ Kennedy!!! Tampa Bay isn’t trading Kazmir to the Yanks, Baltimore isn’t trading Bedard to the Yanks, Toronto isn’t trading Halladay to the Yanks, Boston isn’t trading Beckett to the Yanks, L.A. isn’t trading Lackey to the Yanks, Detroit isn’t trading Verlander to the Yanks, Cleveland probably isn’t trading Sabathia to the Yanks, and San Diego probably isn’t trading Peavey to the Yanks and despite his Cy this year who the hell is he in the A.L. with the DH and much tougher 7-8-9 batting order? So since the Yanks don’t have a guarantee of their ace Pettitte returning next year, who’s the Yanks ace/ guy to replace him? Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy are NOTHINGS. 16 combined M.L.B. starts -a half season of starts- between them incl. none by Chamberlain and 3 by Kennedy (so 13 of 16 by Hughes who quite frankly, was o.k. in them). Wang is a nice pitcher but he’s not quite an ace yet if he ever will be. It’d be nice if he became one but he’s fine by me as a #2 or #3 as they don’t grow on trees either. He’s certainly not as good as or better than any of the four divisional rival or league aces I just listed or Pettitte. The Yanks are about winning now, not in 2010.
B.t.w. name me the last team to win much less make it to the World Series with 4 starters having only 3 full seasons of starting pitching experience combined like the 2008 Yanks would have without Pettitte, Santana, or anyone else signed. Wang has 2.5 years experience, Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy half a season. Colorado’s Jeff Francis, Josh Fogg, and Aaron Cook are not kids. Even Ubaldo Jimenez had 15 starts for them this year, only one less than Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy combined.
So what Hampton, Brown, and Zito got 8, 7, and 7 years, respectively? That’s obviously why you’re bringing them up cuz Santana will most likely ask for 7 or 8 years himself and deservedly get it. Guess what? None of those three pitchers has won two Cy Young Awards with the chance for a third one and automatic first ballot Hall Of Fame induction with it before age 30 like Santana who could finish with as many as 4 or 5 Cys by the time he’s through. They don’t compare to Santana talent or accomplishment-wise save Brown’s ring with Florida which one could argue was bought -they were the true buyers of a title. There’s one Cy between them (Zito). Brown got his big contract mainly on his 1997 with Florida. He was a so-so A.L. pitcher who found no DH weak 7-8-9 batting order gold in the N.L. He’s also the posterboy for how A.L. pitchers can become aces in the N.L. then revert to #4 starter crap when they return to the A.L. cuz they’re facing the DH and much stronger 7-8-9 batting orders again. He had a nice career but nowhere close to the Hall Of Fame. Hampton got his big contract mainly on his 2000 with the Mets. Zito got his big contract mainly on his first two full seasons including a Cy in the second one and overall consistent durability (200+ IP most years).
By your logic, the Yanks should’ve never signed Mussina for 6 years cuz guess what? Even though Mussina pitched better than Santana in the postseason when he was with Baltimore, SANTANA AGE 28 IS BETTE R THAN MUSSINA AGE 28 OR WHEN HE SIGNED WITH THE YANKS. That’s no knock on Mussina, it’s just truth.
Al Leiter was/ is the only Yankee farm system starter after 1980 who had a long-term solid career after being traded to the Yanks. Name me another one after 1980 cuz I can’t. Don’t give me Doug Drabek cuz he came up in the Chi-Sox system and was barely with the Yanks (rookie season only). He was on his way to a nice career esp. with his 1990 Cy Young Award season but he petered out as someone like that by age 30 although he had some decent seasons. Besides that, he was not touted nearly as much as Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy. Don’t give me Jose Rijo cuz while he had a nice string of solid seasons 1990-94, he couldn’t keep it up and he toiled with Cincy for years before his 1990 breakout. Trading him for Rickey Henderson the best leadoff hitter in baseball at the time was a no-brainer just like trading Eric Milton for Knoblauch the best leadoff hitter in baseball at the time was a no-brainer. Westbrook and Lilly came from the farm systems of Colorado and Montreal, respectively. Westbrook for Justice was a no-brainer. Lilly for Weaver wasn’t a bad trade cuz Lilly bounced around after it before finally getting a contract from the Cubs. Another one not touted as highly as Hughes, Chamberlain, and Kennedy.
Trading for Santana isn’t Leiter for Barfield or Drabek as the player to be named later for Smalley, folks. Try Rijo et.al. for Henderson who was an immediate impact player like Santana would be. You wanna run some b.s. that had the Yanks kept Rijo, Leiter, and Drabek, they would’ve competed well 1. we wouldn’t have had Rickey Henderson so no Rijo 2. Leiter was a reliever for years after being traded to the Yanks 3. who knows what Drabek would’ve done in the A.L. i.e. vs. teams with the DH and much stronger batting order?
hey everyone – i’ve been reading for a while, this is my first post. so exciting! bobcat, you’ve made my day a lot more interesting. thanks – i’ll post when i have something to say that hasn’t already been said a hundred times.
Sorry, Bobcat. Didnt mean to put words in your mouth. Wasnt sure you were still here. lol.
SJ,
Now you are contradicting your own statements. In a previous post you were ranting on the Hammy injury and how much it affects a pitcher. Now your saying Hughes has been passed by Joba and doen’t project as a # 1. If he was injured and and could not fulfill his vast Potential how does he slip in his projections? That is completely unfair. When Healthy this Kid is the best pitching prospect in the game period. The kid had to leave a no-hitter because of an injury that is not arm related and will have no effect on his long term abilities and now he’s a #2 or 3?…
I just don’t get it, for years Yankee fans have ranted about the Yankees trading away their best prospects for over priced veterans with only a few years left. Now that we have some true “Blue Chip Studs”, we want to sell them off for a pitcher who will cost 25 million per, for 6 years, and will not maintain his skill level for more than 3 of them.
Joba, Hughes and Kennedy will be better than Hudson, Mulder and Zito. They are much more accomplished at 21 or 22 years of age.
The outfield in 2009/2010 will have a star quality kid at every position and Cano will still be in his 20s That is how you build a dyanasty.
Yes there are some more interesting arms at the lower levels but the depth should be maintained to insure against injury. YOU CAN NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH PITCHING…
bobcat, the cubs cant be thinking of moving pie for nathan…really? wow!
Sharp Shooter:
Watch what the Twins do with Nathan. That will tell you what they will want from the NEXT trade partner. Remember, there are several lists based on several scenarios.
Phil Hughes in the 2007 ALDS:
5 2/3 innings pitched
6 K’s
0 BB’s
3 hits
1.59 ERA
0.53 WHIP
Small sample size, Yes.
To say there is as much chance he could be a bust or success is a joke. He is not a bust. His hammy did not bother him much in October. He was healthy in October. Look out American League in 2008.
Take a look at Baseball Prospectus projected VORP numbers for Hughes and Santana. Santana is on a steady decline. In 2010, Hughes and Santana are projected to have similar numbers.
Guess what happens after 2010.
You do not include Hughes in a trade for Santana.
I must say, I’m the biggest Phil Hughes fan there is, however after watching both of them pitch I think Joba has better overall stuff than Hughes.
Joba’s fastball is better than Hughes fastball and Joba’s slider is better than Hughes curveball.
Buzah! has been doing it(his bullspit) for years. He pretends that he has a “higher-up” source in the organization, and will make a short, arrogant comment, such as “Huges is going nowhere” to impress. Meanwhile, he has about as much inside info on the Yanks as my 9 year old niece does.
I know him, who he is, etc. He doesn’t have anymore inside info than you or I. He also hangs in the Yanks minor league forums like a cheap ho, asking ridiculous questions and making ridiculous comments/suggestions. He really does not know very much, let alone who is available for trade.
I can’t disclose names, but all of you are smart and know your baseball. Think. Think about what YOU would want if you were Bill Smith. And what your trade partners would be willing to give up to win the NL Central.
rich hill? rich hill for nathan?
Jeff Karsten’s had a terrific run with Team USA and showed some potential in ‘06 in the majors. Where does Karsten fit in the Yankee’s mix in ‘08? Would they give him innings out of the bullpen as a setup/long reliever or would they have him pitch as a starter in SWB? Does he have enough upside to draw interest in the Santana trade?
Bobcat- do the Twins want hitting or pitching from the Yanks?
migames:
Think position players. More than one.
Bobcat you are a freakin breath of fresh air to this blog.How cool is it to have an insider on the #1 Yankees blog?
Adam:
Depends on what holes they have when they get done. If you are a Yankees’ fan, what do you want them to ask for? And be clinical, not a fan.
I don’t know enough about the Cubs to up the ante! How about a young infielder to round out the deal? That’s something they are not likely to get in a deal for Santana. Nathan is a bargain for 6 million but it’s only for 1 year so I can’t imagine it would be anyone all that major.
All I hope is all these moves ends with Johan wearing a NYY cap on opening day.
The allegiance to Hughes in here is befuddling. We’re talking about trading for the best pitcher in baseball.
Sometimes I think some of you would be happy with a 4th place team full of Scranton and Trenton players.
You probably were all huge Andy Stankiewicz fans.
Get Johan. Get Pettitte to come back. Let Joba loose and let’s go to war for crying out loud. We haven’t had a rotation like that FOR YEARS.
When Johan goes 23-5 next season you’ll all quickly forget about Hughes.
And trade Wang for a top flight CF. Call up Omar and tell him we’ll give them Wang and we want Milledge. We need a little swagger back on the Yankees.
Sharp Shooter:
Thanks, but the real kudos go to Pete for maintaining the venue and posters like SJ44, Miller, and, frankly, all of you, in that you all are so very knowledgable.
now im thinking they should keep melky
Bobcat,
Aramis Ramirez for Nathan? The Twins need a 3rd baseman.
Bobcat post the post your refering to I was away and you’ve made alot of them or can someone quote it so I can read it again
Pat:
You’re good. Google “Cubs prospects” or go to a site like http://www.baseballamerica.com
I was listening to Mike on WFAN this afternoon and there was a guy named sean on. He was saying how bad santana was against the indians this yr and how poorly he has done in the playoffs. He talked about how he wouldnt even want to give up melky but def not IPK or anyone better. Mike said you are one of the only baseball fans that wouldnt want santana on your own team.
I thought to myself if only Mike saw the ridiculous comments on this blog. Is it just me or do at least 25 percent of the people in here not want Santana? One girls yesterday said melky was going to be an all star and she would never give up melky for santana because he was going down hill. Mike on the radio said the same thing – he is going down hill. And now pete starts bringing up these numbers and telling us it would be a bad idea to get santana.
Well, thats funny because for the last seven yrs all yankee fans have heard was you need pitching to win in the playoffs and the yankees dont even have an ace. Wang certainly isnt an ace and absolutely doesnt perform like one in the playoffs. Now, we have a shot at getting the best pitcher in baseball and all of a sudden, half of yankee universe think its a bad idea to get santana because he had an off couples of months the last half of the season. Or that he sucked against the indians. Or that in his four games of playoff ball he is one and three.
What about his two cy youngs? His complete and utter dominance of American League hitters for five straight yrs? His off yr where he still still struck out 235, had a whip of almost 1, an era of 3.3 and his fifth place in the cy young vote? What about the fact that he had an era of under 1 for 3 straight yrs in the AL a near impossible feat? What about the fact that he is 28 and going into the prime yrs of his career? What about his 93-44 record on a team that has been up and down and never really had much better than a mediocre offense for the majority of his career?
And what about the idea that he would BE THAT ACE that the yankees fans have desparately wanted, needed and prayed for over the last seven yrs? What about the realization that he would be starting two of our five games playoff series and three of our seven game playoff series and with our offense, w ould give us a tremendous shot to win each game? And we must have all forgotten the 12 innings he pitched against the yankees in 2004 when he struck out 14, gave up 1 earned run and was charged with the loss. Or the 8 innings he pitched against the A’s in 2006 when he gave up 2 earned runs and was charged with the loss. The other games were in 2002 and 2003, which will be five and six yrs ago by next post-season. If we dont acknowledge arods brialliant post-season performances before he came to the yanks, why recognize those appearanced and believe they will have some sort of impact when he pitched for the yanks in the 2008 post-season? He didnt even pitch full seasons in either one of those yrs. And with all the talk about his arm having so many miles on it, the dude is only 28 and has only pitched over 200 innings in the last four consecutive seasons and never before. And why r we so worried about that but we werent worried about clemens and his mountain of innings or pettitte and his? Why werent the yanks werent about dice-k and his tremendous amt of innings when they bid for him? Because it isnt that important except it shows that the pithcer is capable of pitching ALOT throughout the long season – its a good thing.
When the organization cant get young aces, fans loved to moan and groan about how we dont have an ace and the organization can never obtain one. Now, we have our shot and half the fans are hear are trying to argue with me about giving up melky or kennedy or our young prospects? He will pitch for us for seven strong yrs from 29 through to 36, it will be worth it. I am not so sure about giving up cano, hughes or chamberlain but i dont think we will have to. We need him and as far as i can tell, he wants us. So stop your b%^*chin’ and be excited about it. This can mean all our hopes and dreams are coming true in one swift trade.
Bobcat –
The Twins are going to want young, cost-controlled impact players that are major league ready – an arm to replace the lost Santana (Hughes), another arm to further develop or spin for another piece (Horne, IPK), and a position player. If I were Smith, the position player I would demand is Cano.
Bobcat,
Great info bud, I’m glued. The suspense is killing me! I’d have to think that a deal for Pie would eliminate Melky from the Yankee equation, which would have to make Hughes a part of any Santana deal. If the Brewers give up Nathan for a Weeks & Gallardo, then that would probably mean Hughes stays. At any rate, is the possibility of loosing Hughes high?
it cant be aramis ramirez. cubs wont trade him. Twins need a 2baseman and/or outfielder. They just traded a SP and they might trade another SP…
The three things NYY has to include are closer types, and further down the road third baseman and 2nd basemen. But, at best the good ones will be in Charleston and Tampa.
Drive:
If you’re Bill Smith, do you want to spend that kind of money? Keep working, you’re doing great.
Brandon:
In essence, it’s my diatribe about how information made available to the media is done so with a purpose. The last guys in the world to have any new information are M&MD.
the twins have a young promising second baseman
i meant whip under 1 in the post above not era of under 1 – now that would be nuts
Steve:
Too much. Cano’s not going anywhere.
Good lord, this Hughes-Chamberlain stuff is frustrating.
Hughes is not a better prospect than Chamberlain.
I will break it down for you pitch by pitch.
Fastball: Chamberlain 96-100. Hughes 92-94. Chamberlain hit 100 MPH 11 times in his minor league starts. Seven of those times were from the 6th inning on. He spots his fastball on either side of the plate with exceptional consistency. Advantage: Chamberlain.
Curveball: Joba’s 12 to 6 curveball is a work in progress. Prior to his injury, Hughes had a great 12 to 6 curve. Post-injury, it lost some of its bite and consistency. Advantage: Hughes by a hair.
Slider: Chamberlain’s slider may be the best slider from a RH in the AL right now. A completely unhittable pitch. So much so, guys I talked to who have face him (like Vernon Wells) come out and say they can’t hit it. Hughes will begin throwing a slider this season, per Nardi Contreras. Advantage: Chamberlain.
Changeup: Chamberlain learned his changeup from Dan McCutcheon who, next to Edwar Ramirez, has the best changeup in the organization. By June, it was a dominating pitch for him. In one of his last minor league starts, he threw 12 changeups in 4 innings…..all for strikes. Hughes’ changeup is a work in progress. He has trouble throwing it for strikes and it hurt him in his starts with the Yankees last year. Advantage: Chamberlain.
I know some of you hate dealing with reality. The reality is, Joba Chamberlain is the better propsect. Its not so much a knock to Hughes as it is a testimony to just how special Chamberlain is.
However, there isn’t a single person in the Yankees organization or around baseball, who believes Phil Hughes is the better prospect. He doesn’t have a single pitch that is head and shoulders over Chamberlain.
Chamberlain’s stuff is once in a generation type stuff. He’s that special.
Aubrey:
Dig a little deeper on him. There is great disappointment that goes with him.
If Pettitte does not choose to pitch again with the Yankees, this may be the projected starting 5 for 2008:
GS IP W L ERA WHIP
Wang 30 199 19 7 3.70 1.29
Hughes 13 72.2 5 3 4.46 1.28
Chamberlain 0 24 2 0 0.38 0.75
Kennedy 3 19 1 0 1.89 1.16
Mussina 27 152 11 10 5.15 1.47
As bright a future as the “Big 3″ may have, 3/5s of the Yankee pitching staff has less than 16 starts among them.
All 3 will likely be restricted to between 150-180 IPs.
Keep in mind that the Bullpen – IF some of the kids come through and IF Cashman adds an excellent Lefty – will be “good” but not necessarily lights out like the vintage years of 1996-2001.
Is this enough experienced and effective pitching to go deep into the Post Season and ultimately beat out the Red Sox?
I would be happy with the starting five if this was a “rebuilding year”. the signings of Abreu, Posado, Mo and ARod have already scrapped any idea of waiting a year or two to “reload”.
I think the writing is on the wall…Santana will be a Yankee if the Steinbrothers and Cashman have Pennant/Championship expectations for 2008.
As a fan I’d prefer they wanted hitting, cuz hitting is easy for the Yanks to replace. My theory of an “established guy” being the surprise chip for 2008 production makes more sense if they want hitting, but they just got hitting and LF/RF in D Young.
I suspect they’ll try to fill CF with Nathan.
I suspect they want pitching, both starting and pen and infeild now.
Big Market teams have pitching prospects. Small Market teams have position prospects. They’re looking for pitching from the Yanks. Hughes/Kennedy, Horn, Olendorfe, etc.
Am I close?
No, he isn’t an ACE for sure. But I’m also 100% sure that every team in MLB would want him on their staff.
Chien Ming Wang’s first 2 playoff games:
2005 ALDS vs. Angels – 6.2 IP’s 6 hits 1ER
2006 ALDS vs. Tigers – 6.2 IP’s 8 hits 3ER
Yes he had a bad 2007 in the playoffs but to say the guy absolutely doesn’t perform in the playoffs in mythodical.
bobcat – betemit?
Bobcat – agree it’s too much – trying to be analytical.
What was me baffled is the Twinkies now receiving the young CF from the Rays. If so, then a NYY trade for Santana would not include Melky, but would instead need to be replaced by another position player, in addition to some arms, no?
interesting Bobcat, so are the Yanks in a point of no return is Action,Jose safe ? or just the opposite ?
Why are we even mentioning Hughes on this Santana trade? After his minor league coach got there in September, Hughes was 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA. Giving up 25 hits, only 2 of them out of the park in 29.2 innings while striking out 18, ok so he also walked 10 but that’s not that big of a negative. Also he had the only win for us in the post-season which got overshadowed by our early exit where he gave up 1 earned run(hr) which was 1 of 3 hits over 5.2 innings while striking out 6 and not giving up any walks. Are we forgetting that, that coach and this year’s pitching coach is the same guy? I don’t think our brass is full of idiots, they must be doing this to bring the price up for Santana for other teams and are ultimately hoping for Santana to stay with the Twins till he’s a free agent next year at which point we’ll go after him. I’ve been following the Yankees religiously since 1994 because that’s when I came to America and fell in love with the Yankees, main reaoon being Donnie Baseball. I even got a tattoo of the team on my arm. I’m mentioning all this because I haven’t been this excited about our team since the glory years because of all the youth(I can relate to them more because I’m 24 myself)and I hope our brass doesn’t diminish this movement. Long live the greatest franchise in professional sports history.
Adam:
You’re putting good thought into this. The Twins will have moved two SP and their new “ace” is coming off TJ surgery.
Nathan is worth more to the Twins on the trade market than Santana because of the competition that he will generate between his trade partners. Think NL Central = position players.
They will need to replenish the pitching, so who better to go to? Now, if I’m Smith, do I want one really, really good guy, or more really good guys?
the only cub scenerio i can come up with is pie and rich hill for nathan, and if they do that, the twins can be charged with highway robbery
Bobcat,
How ’bout this for one part of the deal:
Micah Hoffpauir – .319 BA, 16 HR, 73 RBI in 82 games at AAA Iowa Cubs?
Steve:
Delmon Young is a RF. Cuddyer moves to 3B. OF is still needed in Minn.
Brandon:
I’m not sure what you’re asking. Try again?
Bobcat true yankees know Pete rules, this is his puppy, that goes without saying.If the Twins were smart they would ask for the moon and see what sticks. I never count out Cashman at times like this,he comes through.After being outbid last yr by redsucks for a pitcher,he’s on a mission and has something to do this off season.
santana is not decling by the way, you take out the second half of last yr and he is just as good as ever. His 3.3 last yr and 235 ks and whip of almost 1 was pretty sick for an off yr. Most people couldnt do that in the best yr of their careers. santana’s era+ of 161 in 2006 was the second best of his career. His whip last yr was also the second best of his career. 2006 all around was pretty much his second best season of his career and he won his second cy young as a reward. How can a guy be on a decline when he had one “off” year? A decline usually can only be said if the pitcher had at least two consecutive bad seasons. You guys dont know what you are talking about.
Santana holds all the cards, and wants to go to NY. Minnesota has very little leverage.
All they can hope get out of this are players better than 08 draft picks. I’m sure that’s what the list exchange is about. Bill Smith is maneuvering his roster to make one or the other of the lists make sense.
This trade is going down. Johan will pitch opening day in NY. The real issue is what the Yankees give up. I agree, it’s going to be a surprise.
Bobcat, do you work for Goldman?
rb15:
Betemit probably stays in NY.
migames: There will be a list from the Cubs as well. It won’t include SP.
Drive:
I think the Twins could be interested in him. He could be on their list to Minn.
Bobcat,, you are either a master tease or know a little bit about the game.
My ‘guess’ is the Twins would want IPK, Horne and Jackson.
The other thought is Miranda,, especially if they unload Morneau.
Bobcat,
Nathan will command CF and IF then.
He wants pitching from the Yanks. Kennedy, Horn, Ohlendorf, longer term A-AA position prospect.
You really comparing Santana to Barry Zito?….sometimes I laugh at things you say.
I’ll take a stab in the dark and go with all kids…cost and time controlled…Horne, Hilligoss, Melancon, Jackson, and a player to be named later (in July) that turns out to be either Snyder (SS) or Laird (3rd Baseman)
correction: Hillingoss
BobCat –
Pirdie is the young CF is was referring to – I know Young is a RF. Is Pirdie a movable piece, or do they intend on using him?
His acquisition is what makes me question their interest in Melky.
A Delmon Young deal to the Twins is not favorable for Boston. Young is a corner outfielder and Boston wants to unload Crisp, his noodle arm, and $11M salary which the Twins will nix in any Santana deal unless Lester AND Buchholz are part of it.
Melky now becomes paramount in a Santana deal along with Hughes and whoever else Cashman tries to dangle to get a deal done.
new topic: where does bobcat work?
I say he works for MLB
Green Beret,
you were right the first time, it’s Mitch Hilligoss.
Sharp Shooter:
Twins have asked for the moon. That is public knowledge. However, remember that they have to measure their return NOW vs. who they might get with the two 2009 Amateur Draft picks when Santana leaves.
Bill Smith is no dummy. He can have his cake and eat it too.
And don’t think for a minute that they will regret turning two major pieces of their past into 8-10 pieces of their future.
Yankee21, If Morneau goes, I’d bet on the Angels for Santana (P) and Kotchman
Troy Percival to sign with Rays….that helps there bullpen. Wow, all these teams are getting better. cool stuff
Doreen:
Sorry, I missed your question earlier. This will come together very quickly once Bill Smith has gotten his best deals with his various trade partners.
migames:
I posted yesterday under the HOF thread, my connection to baseball.
Bobcat, Smith wants more guys.
If Hughes goes, no more pitchers go.
That’s why it’s Kennedy, Horne, Ohlendorf and a mystery. With the moves they’ve already made, they don’t NEED to trade Santana, they can compete next year.
Yanks are gonna have to pay them.
Thanks, Phil. I’d still hate to see him and Jackson go. They were fun to watch.
Here’s my educated guess on what the Twins will get for Johan.
A. – Phil Hughes/Ajax or Tabata/Ohlendoff/ PTBL
B. – IPK/Ajax or Tabata/Betances/PTBL
GreenBeret:
I think you read that somewhere? I think we saw that in the office yesterday as part of some “leak”. I’m not sold on that scenario. Doesn’t make sense for the Twins to move Morneau/Mauer just yet. They will have just saved a TON of money on all these deals.
Now I definitely think they’ll be in third next year. Percival and Rincon will be HUGE upgrades to their BP.
Bobcat what I meant is, who is more likely to cave in, the Yankees or Twins
another words Yankees final offer of Melky/Kennedy, lets say they don’t want to include Jackson or Tabata and rather put Gardner or Miranda do the Twins accept it if Johan saids get it done I want NY ? or do the Twins act like they have another buyer..I’m really trying to ask probability Jackson and Tabata are still Yankees after this
Minnesota’s needs now stand at a CF and even more pitching with Santana and Garza likely gone and the free agent Carlos Silva already gone.
Bobcat do you think Cashman will get the job done without losing the farm?
Adam:
I think I’m safe in saying that if things fall in place for Smith, and he gets the position guys he wants for Nathan, then he’ll ask for the list that gives him the best mix of SP and RP from the Yankees, but won’t necessarily include Hughes or Ohlendorf.
That could change, though.
Bobcat,
That’s an interesting question regarding 1 really, really good player versus a couple of really good players. I guess from my perspective that would depend on how high a ceiling he puts on the chips in question. If Smith thinks Hughes is a certifiable ace, and the Kennedy’s, Horne’s, and McClutchen’s are JAG’s, then you go with the ace. Hughes has to be part of the deal if I’m the Twins. Unless of course they see someone like Betances as a can’t miss ace, and take a Kennedy/Betances + type deal.
Sharp Shooter:
I think SJ44 has alluded to this before, but the fact remains:
The Yankees are LOADED in the farm system. THIS is what he had in mind! The plan:
Load up to unload and get the pearls as they become available.
Bobcat, could be, but, going by Nathan’s remarks about him and Morneau getting paid or gone, the only team besides arizona that could help them refill 1st base is the Angels. I doubt the Dodgers would move Loney.
Bobcat- Kennedy, Horne, FARNSWORTH!!!, Betances.
BP VORP #’s for Santana
2004 90
2005 73
2006 80
2007 58
2007E 65
2008E 54
2009E 47
2010E 38
Phil Hughes 2010E is in the low 30’s. In 2010, do you want Santana at $25 mil or a cheap Hughes with upside?
Santana has peaked and is in decline mode. Hughes was strong in September and October and is on the rise.
You do not include Hughes in a trade for Santana.
is anybody else reading the bill simmons chat? the guy knows so little about baseball it’s almost comical.
Brandon:
There are so many possibilities that I’m actually not at liberty to disclose just yet, but know this:
The Yankees can afford whatever they decide it’s worth to get Santana. They will NOT be depleted or disadvantaged in any way.
If Hughes doesn’t go I think it’s going to be a package like this:
Kennedy + Horne+ Melancon + Betances
GreenBeret:
Don’t read too much into what Nathan says.
Morneau isn’t going anywhere. Nathan is.
Adam:
A lot of guys are in play, but not Farnsworth.
Remember people, Cashman is brilliant. He’s been drafting pitchers that other teams can’t afford UNTIL they prove they’re good and not injured. He’s been doing it for just this very moment when Santana became available. The Twins do their homework on talent evaluation… they HAVE TO…. they know exactly what the Yankees have in their system. They’ll get Kennedy, Horne and RP.
Hopefully Fanrsworth has more value than we think he has. lol.
You guys have done a great job of thinking about names that make sense to do a deal with the Twins. If it takes a little more, will the Yankees care? No. Should they? No.
If all they are giving up is prospects that now replace annually, the rest of baseball is at a disadvantage.
this is the most excited day i can ever remember on this blog.
keep it going bobcat!
Cashman’s been planning this move for about three years lol. He’s not about to be outdone.
Adam:
This is Cashman’s contract year.
“In 2010, do you want Santana at $25 mil or a cheap Hughes with upside”
If Hughes develops as he’s projected, he certainly will not be “cheap” in 2010. With Free Agent starter salaries escalating every year, he may be as expensive or more!
It’s not the most excited I’ve ever seen on this blog. I was on here the day Shelley Tied up that game against Bedard in the bottom on the 9th with 2 outs. It was so hyped in here till Mo blew it.
“this is the most excited day i can ever remember on this blog.
keep it going bobcat!”
True, this and the day that the arod story broke
What is the story with the Yankees home opener and closer? I know the Mets released their schedule closing out the season at home. Are the Yankees going to put in a protest to close at home as well?
Nate:
Thanks, but the reality is, that the posters today have really done a lot of solid thinking, not just posting random senseless trades and wants.
The inter-play can be very productive if you stop and think like a GM.
Really wouldn’t mind seeing Morneau come to the Yankees. Does two things. Gives NYY a hard hitting decent fielding 1st baseman, and it gives Jeter a chance to see his 2006 MVP Award.
Do you got an idea or a timeframe on this deal happening?? Do you consider it a done deal??
We should all get down and thank our lucky stars that god made Cashman a Yankee.
Santana is one of the great pitchers of our generation. That being said, I don’t think that the Yankees will be pleased with the return on their investment if they trade Hughes or Joba to Minnesota. The net difference in performance between either of those two young guys and Santana + $20 million that could be spent on different forms of talent could be minimal.
I would rather the Yankees save their money and pursue someone that has a similar talent to Santana but for various reasons isn’t currently valued as highly. Ben Sheets anyone?
Today has been great. I feel like I should get Bobcat a christmas present.
Bobcat:
Will you ever reveal your true identity to being Buster Olney?!
just kidding
it’s fun having you here
I’m out of here, I’ve already stayed at work 40 minutes longer than I wanted to lol.
It’s Kennedy, Horne, RP prospects. Deal.
GreenBeret:
Can’t have them all.
Biggie:
Twins have the keys. They need to finish a couple of things then they will know what they need from the Santana trade.
Bobcat–your posts have spurred on some excellent reading today.
I’m of the opinion that there are quite a few people here deserving of holiday presents.
migames – that was another good one. what a crazy offseason!!
Bobcat
what are examples of pitching prospects would be given up yet not KIll the yankee farm?
Jay, this guy is either Bob Klapisch or Bobcat Goldthwait.
if he were Bobcat Goldthwait, my life would be complete
migames
, I’d settle for being Bobcat Goldthwait. Let’s see! Wonder what me and Nikki Cox are doing tonight?
Bobcat this is the most fun I’ve had on this blog in a long time. You say just enough to make us put the thinking caps on.I’m glued to this set of events as they unfold.How do you get any work done answering all the questions? Please keep us posted with, ~As the Yankees Turn.It’s nothing like being informed.
The Yankees have enought talent in the minors to trade who they want to trade and still have a good enough farm system. Especially with the way they now draft. They are using the system to their advantage for the first time in a long time and only drafting high risk/high reward type of players and signing most of them for above slot dollars.
It’s been said numerous times already but Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy are not the end all be all in the Yankee pitching heirarchy.
Bobcat:
Do you have any insight as to how the Twins may have ranked the Yankee MiLB prospects? Obviously Joba is untouchable, but is there a chance that their scouts may have rated one or two pitchers or position players higher on their list than Phil Hughes?
You must be insane. I am just going to group this in with the people who think we’d be better off without A-Rod. Santana had one of his worst seasons a while last year (ERA slightly above 3) and was still better than all of our starters. You want to talk about bad in the playoffs? How about our “Ace” Wang. Mussina’s knuckle-curve is currently the same speed as his fastball. We need quality starting pitching so we don’t have to use our terrible setup men. Plus if we don’t get him, the Red Sox will. You can point at all these stupid small sample size stats like ERA against AL East teams not including the yankees, but at the end of the day the guy pitched 220 innings and had an ERA of 3.3 and has been an amazing pitcher for the last 5 years.
Get Santana, Hank! Rail that big fish in!
raymagnetic:
Agree that the Yankees, for the most part, are now drafting “high risk/high reward” type prospects,
but Ian Kennedy was an exception to that pattern.
bobcat & sj44: thank you & i love you.
go yankees!
If he was Bob Klapisch, I might freak.
I grew up reading The Record Sports. Still do, when I’m home.
Often the only part of the paper…
Why would the Yankees give up Hughes, Joba or Cano to get what is essentially one year of Santana. If there truly are limited options (as Bobcat and SJ44 have indicated), then I think the best Minnesota will get is IPK and several younger prospects. Giving up more than that makes no sense.
Wonder if it’s alright to start singing Christmas songs, yet?
Start with “Here Comes Santana Claus”
GreenBeret- “Santana Claus is Coming to Town.”
IYF:
raymagnetic answered correctly. The Twins couldn’t ask for enough to deplete the Yankees’ farm system.
Don’t worry about who I am. I’m just a guy. And none of the above.
Hoffa – it wouldnt be one year. it would be with an extension
“Dreidle Dreidle Dreidle” or am I the only Jew here?
LathamJoe I think Kennedy was more viewed as a can’t miss middle of the rotation prospect but you’re right, he wasn’t a high risk/high reward type of pick.
Bobcat:
what part of the industry are you in, if you wouldnt mind me asking.
J-Dawg, you’ve got the spirit. Just don’t do The Singing Dogs version of “Jingle Bells”.
Just remember what you’ve all thought through today:
If you’re a GM, and in particular, the Yankees’ GM, and you’ve had your eye on Santana for several years, you do whatever you have to do to get him. You retool on the fly.
You use your assets to your advantage and get the deal done. If it’s Hughes, Kennedy, Jackson and Tabata, what do you care? You’ve made the decision to obtain him; you do it.
No, you’re not, Rebecca
jay:
I do independent financial analysis for the MLB teams and their affiliates, include the cost of trades, stadium leases, etc.
Bobcat –
I’m thinking out of the box here, but what about Brackman? I know we just paid him a lot of money, and he is still recovering from surgery, but from what I’ve read he has quite an upside. Would cashman throw him in? The twins have to know that if he fully recovers, he is a beast.
I would never want to play a chess match with Brian Cashman, that’s for sure.
I have to admit, I’m not as knowledgeable of other teams, especially if they’re in the NL. I guess this is when being in a fantasy league pays off – you become familiar with the entirety of MLB, not just the home team and their rivals. I had no intention of spending so much time here today, but I kept coming back for more. Great stuff, Bobcat, SJ, and everyone else. Thanks for the education.
I doubt you would get anywhere near potential value for Brackman until he throws some pitches.
nate:
Think about what your trade partner is looking for: cheap, high upside players that are a long ways from arbitration. Brackman has a MLB contract.
Brackman is not going to be traded, he isn’t a piece quite yet
If the Twins/Ray trade pushes through, how fast would they react on santana if nathan gets hung up.
Tell you what, if Cashman gets this deal done, aside from winning a World Series, this has to be his crowning moment as a GM. This plan to get Santana has been in place for a long time. It has to be gratifying for him to know that basically three years of hard work are going to pay off in the ultimate way. THIS is why you build up a great farm system. Load it up with depth and continue to build the pyramid. Unload what it takes to get Santana and then repeat the process to get another great player later on down the line.
Jay:
I realize there would be an extension, but if Minnesota does not deal Santana now he will be a free agent at the end of the year. Bobcat indicated earlier that there are a very limited number of teams to which Minnesota can trade Santana. So, essentially the Yankees get one year out of Santana, because they can sign him as a free agent next year without losing anybody.
Bobcat:
I’m certainly not asking for you to reveal who you are, but would we recognize your name if you told it to us?
SJ44:
Same question to you?
OK, so Bobcat is not Bob Klapisch.
Hoffa: Why pay him $13MM if you are the twins if you know he is going to walk with you getting no real compensation aside from the sandwich picks.
Makes no sense, trade, save the money and rebuild with what you get, that’s the whole point of making trades.
I heard that Minnesota has expressed serious interest in acquiring Carl Pavano if they were to make a deal with the New York Yankees for Johan Santana. Apparently Porsche has approached Twins ownership and offered to put a retractable roof on their stadium in exchange for a Pavano endorsement. lololol
No, guess not, Rebecca. He says not. I’ll still go with Bobcat Goldthwait. That’s the only reason I can think of anybody being that cheerful…going home to Nikki Cox at night.
Peter – are you reading your blog today? Because you should be.
This is so much fun
cash horded all these prospects for a reason- to deal some of them for the best players in the league like I dunno …. a JOHAN SANTANA! I dont understand this whole yankee fans absolute obsession with every yankee prospect. Some of you think every single one of them is going to turn into Johan Santana or Arod. NEWSFLASH: It aint happening guys. VYery few prospects become the best players in baseball thas why they are called prospects and not sure things. We need to trade some of them for the piece we actually need like an ace and some bullpen help – players that will help us win the world series. Some of these prospects may not even make the majors nevermind lead us to a ring. We dont even know if kennedy is going to be good yet and ppl want to hold onto him for dear life. And we already know melky is a below avg offensive centerfielder and some fans are acting like he is Griffey in his prime. Mets fans want to give up reyes for Santana and some yankee fans dont even want to part with melky. Cano isnt nearly as good as reyes and some fans are acting like trading cano for Santana would be the biggest mistake the franchise could ever make. Get some perspective – stop with this tunnel vision. Just because there a YANKEE prospect doesnt mean they are going to be future hall of famers. You know how many prospects are built up like the best thing since sliced bread and completely fall apart. Just think Duncan or how about Milton.
Hoffa:
No.
GreenBeret:
I just have a thick skin. It grows and sheds seasonally.
GB: Dude, you didn’t tell me Bobcat Goldthwait is from the Cuse!!
Jay:
I’m not suggesting that Minnesota does not want to trade Santana (I certainly think they do want to trade hom). My point is, according to bobcat and I think SJ44, there are only a few teams who Santana is willing to be traded to. The Twins hands are somewhat tied because of the limited number of teams.
Bobcat: What I don’t understand is…if all the cards are in Santana’s hand…and IF he wants to come to the Yankees over other teams…..THEN why would the Yankees end up having to trade ANYTHING to Minnesota substantially over the worth of two draft picks next year?
I would hate to lose Melky in this trade as we will end up replacing a good 23 year old outfielder with another 30+ outfielder.
Thanks for your contributions to this blog. Your insight is invaluable.
Good work, Bobcat. Rock on, sir!
Someone correct me if I am wrong, but Andrew Brackman was recently drafted, and MLB prohibits players that are drafted from being trade in their first year (they can be traded after their first year).
Even with a MLB contract, I don’t think the yanks could trade brackman anyway.
Dave. The Yankees have tried this for the last 10 years. It has not worked. We finally have legit prospects. Prospects that have very high ceilings. Its not that people don’t want to trade ANY prospect, it is we have to be very sure we trade away the right combination. Robinson Cano is in the very infancy of his career. Why would you trade Cano+? I may consider a Cano for Johan straight up deal, but that would never happen. Right now, Cano is more of a valuable asset to the Yankees than having Santana. Remember, we won 94 games without Santana last season. It is not THAT URGENT. If it can be done at a reasonable cost it should be done, but lets not mortgage our future in the hope that Santana will instantly bring many World Series Championships to the Yankees. You have to have a team behind a pitcher for a pitcher to be effective.
Jay:
(Just in case you responded) I’m checking out. Time to leave work and go home and spend time with the family. It’s been fun guys and gals!
Why can’t Stein come out and say “We aren’t offering anything for Santana but if he waits til next offseason we will give him whatever he wants?”
Yes, he is, Rebecca. But, since he doesn’t live there anymore, it’s safe to be on the streets at night. Funny guy. Sadly for him, he’s not with Nikki any more.
DadinIowa:
I’ve said it before: impatience is expensive. I think if the Yankees didn’t equate their early exits in the playoffs to a lack of an ace, then they would simply wait for the FA offseason. Secondly, Santana is more important to the Yankees than any other team. Supply and demand.
Bobcat,
have the Yanks expressed any concern w/ Johan’s high HR total- especially in the 2nd half.
There is also the report that he was shying away from throwing sliders
Also Brackman was just drafted and can’t be traded for a year, correct?
I know this is an absurd comment, but I love Melky Cabrera and would hate the Yanks to trade him. I mean Santana’s great, and you want to have a pitcher like that but. . .
Rotation:
Santana
Wang
Hughes
Joba
Moose (Pettite if he comes back)
Lineup:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
A-Rod 3B
Posada C
Matsui DH
Rowand CF
Phillips/Shelley 1B
This is by a boat load the best team in the league. Even the Red Sox don’t even begin to measure up. But we’ve learned in the past that these old, overpaid, no-passion teans don’t win championships. Yanks started winning games when the kids started making an impact. Not a coincidence. And nobody try and tell me the Rockies team was better than this Yankees team. But last year’s rockies playing this potential team would win in a short series.
From mlbtraderumors, 4 pm:
UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 4pm: Neal reports that the Twins have interest in Aaron Rowand, which is really surprising given his reported demands. I don’t see it. Neal adds that Craig Monroe may now be non-tendered and the Garza trade will not stop Bill Smith from shopping Johan Santana. By the way, talks for Coco Crisp persist.
Maverick:
Who would Hank “come out” and say that to? Sit at his desk for a minute. It’s conceivable Bill Smith might already know that that is the Yankees’ position.
Remember what I’ve been saying: You read what you are allowed to read. There is no need to go public with that information.
sverlyn:
No and yes.
Steve:
Analyze that post yourself. What do you think is true/possible and what makes zero sense?
SJ so Hughes is not Joba.. Enough..
Joba is a once in a lifetime talent……..
the guy throwas strikes and throws 97 in his sleep…Name 3 guys in baseball who do that??? There are none……
Boston would not get Santana because it makes no sense for them to get him… Mourneau leaving Minny, really, why????
Tampa improving there pen, so what they are going no where again.
I agree with Turn Two’s first comment… the Red Sox already have their expensive pitchers (Dice-K, Beckett) on their payroll. The Angels already have a plethora of pitching.
The Mets have a mediocre farm system that will get eaten up in the AL and the Twins will realize this. The Mets are also cheap bastards. BC is bidding against himself.
With that said – please, please, please do not give up Hughes or Joba!
Bobcat,
My point was to make it aware to Santana so that he would potentially block any trades or not sign an extension if he was asked to waive his no trade clause. If he knows the Yankees will be waiting with a huge offer he will wait til free agency. That may very well be his position but I think if it was made public (leak to a paper) than it would lessen any package the Twins would want for Santana b/c they know he is going to wait until next year to sign his extension. Big risk but could be a huge reward also.
Bobcat: I wasn’t suggesting that we wait for FA. Minnesota is better off if we give them some value NOW that is just above the worth of two draft picks that they would get if they did not trade him. I am not worrying about competition from other teams as that is not relevant as long as NY is the team that Santana will insist he be traded to.
Maverick, there are something that George, Jr,…errr…Hank Steinbrenner doesn’t want to copy his father in and that’s tampering. In 1973, he was accused and almost cost the Yankees a ton for approaching Dick Williams to manage the Yankees. Problem was, Dick Williams was still under contract with the A’s.
Who is IPK being referred to…thanks
Maverick:
Okay. But don’t you think he’s aware of all the permutations? He’s a mini-gm on this deal.
Melky’s numbers obviously aren’t a-rods, but .280 and great defense is really not that bad. He’s ready for a breakout year, if he can finally be the everyday CF. Granted .327 is a bad OBP, he’s not a power hitter, and he has a low OPS, he’s a good player who can contribute on the field.
Why would Minny want Crisp unless Red Sox r willing to eat prob half that 11 mill a year -never happen. Seeing that rumor on a few sites.
bronx stop
we tried this for yrs? I dont remember the other times the yanks traded for an ace in his prime. Maybe you can name me a time. We didnt do this. We traded for has – been aces that were in the late 30s and early 40s that were usually moving from the NL to the AL and hadnt been aces in the AL in a solid five seasons at least. When was the last time we were able to get an ace in his late 20s who dominated AL pitchers for five straight seasons? NEVER
Russell,
Beckett might be one of the best contracts in baseball, he makes reletively nothing compared to what he brings to the table.
Josh Beckett p
3 years/$30M (2007-09), plus $12M 2010 club option
signed extension 7/06
$2M signing bonus
07:$6M, 08:$9.5M, 09:$10.5M, 10:$12M club option ($2M buyout)
DadinIowa:
Fair enough. Did your question get answered or not?
JDnotDrew:
I’d be stunned if the Twins showed ANY interest in Crisp. They have no need to.
The last time the Yanks got an ace-type pitcher in or close to his prime was David Cone.
In all of this excitement over Johan Santana, what happens to second tier prospects like Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard, TJ Beam, Chris Britton Matt DeSalvo, Darrell Rasner, and Edwar Ramirez?
All of the above are on the 40 man roster and none of them seem to be good enough to attract anyone’s attention even in this thin pitching market.
Cano is not nearly as valuable as santana – he is a hitter that plays a decent second and doesnt know how to walk. Cano is an ace that would win at least 20 games on the yanks for five yrs and be able to give the yanks a chance to have a solid chance to win at least 2 games of the five game series in the playoffs because he prolly wont let up more than a run or two. Cano cannot win playoff games for us – maybe one every 10 or so if that. And cano does not have the same value as santana. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, cano isnt even in the top 20 best hitters. I dont want to trade cano but the twins arent complete morons, they will not trade the face of their franchise for unproven players. Maybe they will but not if they have a choice in the matter.
JustAsking
November 28th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
Who is IPK being referred to…thanks
_________________________________________________
Ian Patrick Kennedy
yea and david cone won us a couple of rings – the same would happen with johan.
Bobcat –
“Analyze that post yourself. What do you think is true/possible and what makes zero sense?”
What is true: Smith will not let losing Garza stop him from shopping Santana because he knows he can get/is getting promising arms in return. Offers are out there that has allowed him to make the Garza move already.
What is possible: acquiring Crisp
What makes zero sense: Twinkies spending unwisely for a non-fit CF free agent.
No way on Crisp 2 much money for too little talent= ZERO sense.
Just Asking: IPK = Ian Kennedy
Bobcat: You would make an excellent detective.
Bobcat: Really the questions boil down to: a) Are the Yankees the only team that Santana would agree to be traded to; and b) what players equal a value just above the value of two compensatory draft picks next year.
Do you know the answer to either of the two issues?
Dave
according to VORP and a few other measures, Cano is about exactly as valuable as Santana.
Steve:
Good work. The only thing I would disagree on is Crisp. The Twins would have to give up SP, which they are not now likely to do. Not for Crisp, who is due the following:
08:$4.75M, 09:$5.75M, 10:$8M club option ($0.5M buyout)
That’s too much money for a CF, that they can now get with either Nathan or Santana.
Dave, Cano has less than 3 years in the Majors. Not sure how you figure he only an average fielder, but nobody turns a faster or better DP. of his 13 errors this year 7 came in 3 games, 3 in one game and 5 in that week. Those came when he was in a slump. He’ll outgrow taking at bats out on defense. None of his errors are on throws. There isn’t any 2nd baseman in the AL that hits as well for average and power. Only Utley is better, but, then Utley’s three years older.
Everyone keep in mind what Bobcat has already laid out – there’s a domino effect here – if 1 doesn’t fall, then the rest won’t either.
So we have 1) Garza/Young, a potential 2) Nathan move, and the pices acquired from each will determine what the Twins NEED for 3) Santana.
Needed pieces could change based on what they acquire from 1) and 2)…
Dave,
Two words for you:
Roger Clemens
You can’t tell me he wasn’t still a dominant “ace” after winning two more Cy Young Awards in Toronto and coming over to NY and stinking up the joint in 1999.
He never had the same kind of dominance with the Yanks that he had in Boston or Toronto. Not even close.
Besides, as I’ve said a thousand times on these boards – the Yanks need “depth” in the rotation a lot more than an “ace.”
Santana can only pitch once every 5 days and he can’t win a playoff series all by himself. I’m more worried about the other 4 slots in the rotation.
Your side is becoming closer to the minority every hour that passes by.
The cost for Santana would be too much and not worth the gamble long term. I suspect the Red Sox will feel the same way about giving away their top prospects.
That means the two biggest players for Santana might be out of the running for him before long unless Minnesota’s price comes down.
The Twins just may elect to keep Santana for now and make a run at the division title with Santana and Liriano.
Rebecca:
I am, of sorts.
DadinIowa:
Santana’s preference is to play in NY. There are several lists of players that both teams have agreed on, given different scenarios. I can’t really reveal names at this point.
Are we in play for Nathan?
Or is setting up for the greatest closer ever not an option for one of today’s best closers?
How old is Nathan?
Steve:
You get it.
Nathan’s 33 yrs old
Dave- I just think you are underestimating Cano. I realize how good of a pitcher Santana is at his age. But I just do not like what we would have to part with to get him. And then turn around and be able to afford $25 million a year on top of giving away all of the prospects. With A-Rod and Santana locked up for the next 6-7 years at least, are hands are tied if we run into any trouble down the road.
Throw out the VORP and all that garbage. Santana’s value is in the postseason when he has a chance to dominate 2 games a series and basically give the yankees an excellent to advance to the next round every series. Cano can’t do that, honestly no position player really can. Santana’s value will be much greater in the postseason than in the regular season. Why can’t you stat heads understand that? It’s pretty obvious. Not everything boils down to stats like VORP or win shares or whatever.
It just occurred to me that perhaps “lists” means that we will be getting back minor league prospects back for some of our minor league prospects. I’m not sure if Minnesota has any infield prospects in their system, but that could certainly help the Yanks.
Chris: Given our bullpen needs, I can’t believe we wouldn’t be in play for Nathan, but what we’d have to give up for BOTH Santana and Nathan probably wouldn’t be worth it.
How come no one mentions how the yanks are in a “win-now” phase, and not “transition” phase as Hank mentioned before? Our catcher, signed for 4 more years, is about to decline a lot sooner than later; our hall of fame closer is signed for 3 more years, and will most probably decline as well(but still perform at an elite or close to elite level); our 3b is in the middle of his prime(signed for 10 yrs), as is our SS(hopefully soon to be OF); and the list goes on…
But how is it a smart idea for us to risk those high quality performance years by gambling on 3 young pitching prospects(yes, they have great potential, but the odds of them all being great is so ridiculously low, we’re just blinded by having NO farm system for the past decade) as our starters? They can’t even pitch 200 innings yet!
The Santana deal is a NO BRAINER, even if you have to give up Hughes…
Red Sox dealt a pitching prospect(no hitter throwing Anibal Sanchez) and a SECOND YEAR MVP candidate SS(Hanley Ramirez) for Beckett and Lowell………um, that seemed to have worked out for them huh?
33? i was thinking at least a little younger. guess a 33 year old closer isn’t going to step aside for a 38 year old closer in hopes of “someday (ie 3 years from now)” taking over……..
McLovin, I wouldn’t say that no hitter/position player can’t dominate a PS series. Carlos Beltran with Houston pretty much got them to the NLCS in ‘04 by dismantling Atlanta.
The Yanks can win without Santana and giving the “kiddie corps” a shot is not a bad idea. The Yanks have never done that in most lifetimes here. The advantage of getting Santana is to keep him off the Angles or the Redsox. I wouldn’t give up Cano, along with Hughes, Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and one those young outfielders. Cano is a potential 30 HR, 100 RBI secondbaseman – a rare commodity. Yanks need to keep Cano. He has more value over the next decade, plus than Santana.. I rather trade for Haren.
Phil,
That assessment is ridiculous and is prolly based solely on last season when Johan had the worst yr of his career. An ace is far, far more valuable than a great hitting secondbaseman. Just use your common sense. Why do u think the best young hitters are always free agents but we havent had a young solid ace pitcher as a free agent in god knows how long. They are almost impossible to acquire and the yanks obtained all of the young prospect pitchers cuz they realized they would have to develop their own because you cant trade for or acquire aces hardly ever.
Cano is an average second baseman defensively because he isnt one of the best – he makes foolish errors and at times, play very sloppy defense. Granted, he can turn a great double play but most second baseman in the majors can. And most second baseman in the majors and superb defensively – so average in the majors really means great but his occasional sloppy defense certainly hurts his chances of being the best. He just appears to showy in his approach at times to the point that it looks and is sloppy.
Who cares how hits compared to other second baseman – we can replace his offensive production in the lineup at other positions like first or center. And his obp is pretty bad when compared to his avg – its consistently about 30 points higher which i dont think he will outgrow over time. Young free swingers rarely change that much as they get older thats just how he approaches the game – if he took more balls – he strikes out more and doesnt hit for as high an average. Thas exactly what happened this yr – his walks went up, his strike outs went up and his avg went down.
If santana only wanted to play for the yanks, dont u think we would know it already. Somebody in the media would get that info and publish it. I dont think Santana is completely opposed to playing for other teams – i think he prefers the yanks but i highly doubt that is the only team he would consider being traded to. If that was the case, the twins wouldnt even be talking with anyone else. Whats the point if a deal will never get done because Johan will just neg it at the end.
I know he’s a below average bat, but Corey Patterson is an excellent fielder who still possesses enough upside to warrant serious consideration. Immerse him in a professional line-up surrounded by patient hitters and he could really flourish. Plus, he’s a free agent, and shouldn’t have a hefty asking price, or anything near long-term demands.
This is, of course, if Melky is a goner, which appears a definite possibility at this point.
If the Yanks signed Beltran or Vlad G, they would be solid in the OF – no Abreu or Damon and the aging issues they bring. That’s the past..
McLovin, VORP is a very useful stat, stop referring to it as some form of Voodoo(gotta love how people say sabremetricians are statheads, but everyone else uses stats as well(HR, RBIs, BA, Wins….but they’re not as useful in some cases)
anyways, santana’s value in the postseason is obvious…his strikeout rates…..in the small sample size that is the postseason, pitchers like wang put way too much to chance, and you can see a bunch of seeing eye and bloop singles that make wang look like a terrible/not clutch pitcher…..but STRIKEOUTS, that’s an absolute value, an out where you dont have to rely on defense
…I really dont think anyone here is against getting Johan. But we need to be very, very careful in who we package. Chances are that at least one of the three big pitchers will pan out. May not be a two-time Cy Young award winner but with this Yankee offense and Girardi at the helm, I think at least one of the three will go on to become a twenty game winner. What more could you ask for out of a pitcher in the regular season. Johan didn’t win twenty games last season???
If we are going to trade for a starting pitcher, Haren would probably cost us more in terms of players than Santana. Haren doesn’t have a NTC.
Nah. Nathan’s going where the money is, although, depending on what he would cost in talent for one yea of setup, letting him go for draft picks, may be worth it, Chris
DAVE YOUR MISSING THE POINT… WE WOULD TAKE JOHAN FOR CANO STRAIGHT UP BUT YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT EVERYONE YOU ARE GIVING UP AND ALSO THE SALARY THAT HE IS GOING TO COST YOU DOWN THE ROAD!!!! IS IT WORTH GIVING UP A POTENTIAL BATTING TITLE WINNER AND STAND OUT SECOND BASEMAN ALONG WITH A TOP PITCHING PROSPECT AND A BUDDING OUTFIELDER TO GET JUST ONE PITCHER????
if you think it is–chances are Cash and the rest feel the same way you do. We will see….
Dave it’s not really. And his projections were right in line with Santana’s going forward, and thos are projections from before `07, so they weren’t accounting to Santana’s subpar second half when they were calculated.
GreenBeret7,
I guess your probly right. The Beltran example is legit…but it’s extremely rare and also seems to be happenign less often. You see a lot more top of the rotation type pitchers dominating a playoff series than hitters. I’d hate to lose Cano, but you gotta give to get. The Beckett example is used time after time. Would the Red Sox love to have Hanley Ramirez right now over Julio Lugo? ABsolutely, but I’d say that trade worked out pretty well for them this year. If the Twins would do the deal for Kennedy, Cano, Melky, and maybe another lesser piece..I would do that in a heart beat.
We give santana 25 mil per and arod 30 mil per, the yanks will still have plenty of money to burn. Almost the entire team besides those two, Mo and Po’s contracts are ALL up within three yrs. Giambi’s 25 mil, pavanos 10 Fransworthless’ 6 or whatever we are paying him, Matsuis 15 are all gone within the next yr or two. We will be fine money-wise. And if there are two players in the game he we should want on the yanks for long term deals it should be the best hitter and the best pitcher in the game. Id rather have those two than anyone else of a similar age.
As for cano, I know how great he is – he is a HUGE find. I just think he is so over-valued in the eyes of a yankee fan because he is homegrown as is all the other homegrown players. The truth is he is a beast at getting hits or doubles but that is it really. He plays a good D (not excellent but not bad by any means) has no speed and little power and absolutely no eye for walks. He is going to make a ton of money in a couple of yrs because he will be the best at his position and we can easily replace his bat with someone like teixera at first or a number of centerfield options off the free agent market next yr. Just because we trade cano doesnt mean we need to go out and try to get utley or orlando hudson. We can get a quality defensive second baseman and upgrade at first or center or both and have the same or a better lineup without him. Plus, we can get hudson as well who hitting-wise isnt too shabby himself.
Cano was ranked 8th in fielding during 2007, ahead of players like Brian Roberts, Chase Utley and Durham – http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....angeFactor
Of course, Cano has room for improvement and will get better. Most of his errors come when he doesn’t concentrate. His bat more than makes up for it.
Yanks would be foolish to trade Cano –
McLovin – best name on here. Funniest movie since Old School, possibly funnier than Old School.
Anyone who hasn’t seen it, Superbad on DVD 12/4/07, put the kids to bed before watching….
Back to baseball – I’m with the masses that don’t want to let any of our young guys go, but I’m not naive enough to think we can keep them all or that they all will be winning CY Young’s in the coming years. I also think we need to realize that we have a lot of talent in the lower levels that probably or supposedly project as high or higher than the “big 3.”
Reality is, it’s absolutely amazing to even be able to mention “the big 3″ and not be talking about Oakland’s pitching studs of the past or present. We’ve all been captivated by the idea of having these 3 young horses to carry us into the next ten years. But the reality is they may, or may not do so, and we have plenty of other horses in the stable waiting to be the next “top pitching prospect.”
It’s an exciting time and I love how much more we’re exposed lately to the minor league system (and have real reasons to be excited about that system).
THAT SAID, I do not want to see Hughes nor Joba, nor Cano traded, period. I watched Hughes’ curve drop off the face of the earth during the playoffs in a HUGE spot picking up for the Rocket. I went to his debut and I want to see this kid develop. So call it an emotional decision with some definite business/baseball merit, but this kid I don’t want to trade.
Bronx Stop, Wins are a terrible way to measure a pitcher’s performance…here’s an extreme example:
Team A Scores 10 runs/game, their starter allows 8 runs/game, but said starter wins 20 games.
Team B Scores 1 run/game, their starter allows 3 runs/game, but said starter wins 0 games.
Are we to assume that the starter on Team A is better than the starter on Team B? Of course not, that would be asinine.
(side note: 2007 run support stat – Wang – 7 runs/game, Santana, 5 runs/game)
sorry, that was a long post… i hate those.
Kunaldo,
I’m not saying VORP isn’t useful. In a lot of situations I’m sure it is. But this isn’t one of those situations. We’d be getting Santana primarily to help us advance in the playoffs. Cano can’t do that to the degree that Santana can.
Cano raked in the postseason this year.
wow dave. you live in a fantasy world. do you know how many different things would have to happen for even half of what you said to make sense? i mean im not trying to like insult you or anything but that is pretty wishful thinking and what makes you think that that would even improve what the Yankees already have! maybe i could get ahold of you next year during fantasy baseball
I misread that rating system it was based on range.. Cano still will get better fielding
Phil = u cant really compare hitters to pitchers. And pitching is such a rare commodity pitchers should always be more valued in a trade cuz teams are always looking for pitching. Not to mention, Johan is the BEST pitcher in baseball by far. Cano may be the best second baseman but isnt even close to being the best hitter in the MLB or even the league. Use some common sense- that assesment makes no sense to me – Johan is far more valuable than cano is but the twins either get to trade him or completely lose him so they obviously wont get something of fair value back for him. The twins are not in the higher position at all
Bronx stop
You are right – you have to look at all the pieced ud tried. I would probably only trade Cano and melky if cano was involved. If not i would trade three or four like a Kennedy, Melky, Horne or Kennedy, melky, tabata deal. I wouldnt add in horne if cano was involved. And id much rather trade kennedy, melky and a prospect than lose cano but if push came to shove i dont think cano should be untouchable by any means. And melky is a nice piece but certainly not even close to the centerpiece of a trade. Hes completely expendable on a team that has three other outfielders all making 10 Mill or more. All we really need is someone like rowand to come in when one of the three are injured and cant play the field which will prolly be constantly. I dont think melky will ever be better than league average and i doubt he will be that.
Phil,
Yeah, Cano raked and look what that got us. You need to pitch to win in the postseason. Santana could pitch 2 games in each series, maybe 3 in a 7 game series if absolutely necesarry.
well. i am not trying to insult anyone. i just hope the yankees are very wise in what they choose to give up. if we get santana im buying a jersey. if we dont get santana bring on pettite and lets get it done.
McLovin, I’m with you man, I want Santana – badly…I’m torn about about if i would give up cano though…
Cano is part of the solution, not part of the problem. We can get all the pitching help we need without moving him.
Drive 4-5 :
Your question regarding 2nd tier prospects prompts many fans the wonderment of where they fit.
A year ago, prospects like Rasner, Wright, Clippard, DeSalvo and others were seriously looked at but fell below the radar through injury and poor perfomances when given the opportunities. That compounded with sooner than expected progress of Joba, Kennedy, Hughes and more resulted with them as not as prominent pieces as before. The next wave of good prospects like Horne, McCutchen, Marquez, and Robertson are squeezing even more.
Those 2nd tier prospects are now likely to be used as parts of deals wherever possible rather than lose them entirely.
This is further evidence that Brian Cashman’s making a case to build the farm system is showing itself through.
Kunaldo,
It’s obviously a tough decision. Cano is already a great player and will probably get even better. I’d be for waiting a year in all honesty and holding on to what we got. It might cost us this year, but in the long term it would probably be the smarter move. It’d be risky though, you’d be taking the chance that no one else trades for him and signs him long term. If the only way we could get him is to do it this year in a trade I would basically part with anyone they want outside of Chamberlain and Hughes. I’d even consider Hughes, but that would be tough.
bronx stop
what are u talking about? Im only saying how the yanks can improve the lineup next yr without cano using the free agents that are on the market next yr. What is wishful thinking about it? The yanks have wanted teixera FOREVER and he is a free agent next yr. Rowand can be acquired if we trade melky in the deal for santana relatively soon. There are a number of centerfielders we can use to replace melky next yr. Just look at the free agent list in 2009 (next off season.) And the contracts were all true. I dont understand what is wishful thinking about any of that… And what would have to come true for any of those things to happen? I dont understand what you are saying.
PS, Cano is one of the best fielding second basemen in the league(again, like Wins, Errors are a bad way of judging fielding value). Everyone thinks he mails it in, but the fact of the matter is that he’s that good, gets great jumps on balls, has great range, and a great arm….a lot of his “errors” are on balls that no other second basemen would even lay leather on!
When (heh), we get Santana, do we pawn Mussina to the NL for spare parts?
Or do we keep him as an insurance policy (albeit very costly) to avoid an Arroyo situation?
Bobcat – you really should take all this to some kind of chat, be it on irc or maybe yahoo or something, you’d make for an interesting chat
os if gold gloves, errorrs and fielding percentage mean nothing defense is completely subjective and there is no real way to prove that a second baseman is the best or worst in baseball except what they do on an every day basis compared to all the other secondbaseman int he league. And since all of us pretty much only watch cano and whoever the yanks are facing that day – id say that is pretty difficult to assess
Just some indications
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....pit-1.html
“Last July, in fact, then-Twins’ center fielder Torii Hunter privately predicted during a series at Yankee Stadium that Santana would wind up in pinstripes. Hunter, who recently signed with the Angels, didn’t want to say so publicly at the time because of his allegiance to the Twins, but winked when asked about Santana’s future.
“He loves New York,” Hunter said. “He’ll be great here.”
+ the Si quote
“Santana has a full no-trade clause and can control where he goes. Word is, he has interest in New York, but… the Red Sox, Dodgers and Angels have to be considered attractive options”
+ Johan saying he loves playing in NY “on the big stage” and I saw a clip of Ron Gardenhire acknowledging hesaid it, is what leads me to believe with the $$ the Yankees would be willing to pay that Johan would veto any other trade. In addition, I’ve got to believe that Johan would rather not pitch 1/2 his games in Fenway which has not been kind to him (6.89 ERA) or other lefties.
Soooo…the Yankees Should NOT give up anymore than IPK and Melky plus maybe a B prospect…or tell the Twins they will wait ’till he is a FA. I think the twinkies take the deal.
Just spoke to Hank:
Yankees get: Santana
Twins get: Kennedy, Melky, Horne, and Tabata.
McLovin, It’s almost inevitable that Santana will not hit the FA Market…the twins want more than draft picks for by far the best pitcher of the past 4 years(and beyond)…they’re trading him somewhere…it just needs to be to us
And like i said before, it’s nice to have our own young players, but we have a lot of older guys that only have so many great years left in them, why waste it on developing 3 pitchers? and if those pitchers dont pan out, it’s even worse! and like someone else said, we have a LOT of pitchers in the farm that have high ceilings, and could be better than these 3.
I’m only holding onto Joba i think…
A betting man would say that a Delmon Young / Matt Garza deal will have implications with a Santana deal.
My bet is that Robbie Cano is going nowhere. There is no one in the Yankee MiLB organization- or in Free Agency- to replace him. Young promising righthanded pitchers are the current Yankee strength and Cashman will build his deal around them – plus maybe a young league Average CFer.
cano was ranked eighth in fielding that is 8 out of 30 possible second baseman starters – doesnt seem like the best to me. He is good maybe great but certainly not the best. You guys and the homegrown players – stop living in your own little worlds and get some perspective
Kunaldo, if you threw out those three games wher he totaled 7 errors, people would rave about Cano’s fielding 5 of those errors came in a 5 game span during his hitting slump in May. Two more in a game in September. In between, he was spectacular. 45 games in a row without an error.
Bronx stop where did u go – planning to answer why u wrote that last comment cuz im getting curious here …
Bobcat… Do you visit ‘Bronx Banter’? If so, what handle do you use. If not, drop by. You will like it.
Dave:
Forget the Fldg Pct. – he gets to balls that very few 2nd basemen even dream of, and he’s still a baby at 24 years old.
Why do you think that he is one of the first players mentioned by other GMs in possible trade talks?
Dave, you aren’t trying to use GG awards to base your fielding argument on, are you?
Kunaldo,
I agree. He’ll likely be traded, I just don’t know who would be willing to meet his contract extension demands outside of Boston or the two NY teams. I don’t think the Mets have the pieces unless they include Reyes. I don’t know if Boston will part w/ what is necesarry. That leaves the Yankees. I’d part with Kennedy for Santana no problem. I’d be a little iffy on Hughes, but I’d still consider. Joba to me should be the only untouchable at this point.
Dave, Raffy Palmeiro got a Gold Glove! Nuff said!
but seriously though, i’ll explain it simply:
Fielder A is not that fast, and doesnt get good jumps on balls off the bat, but he only makes 5 errors.
Fielder B is extremely fast, gets great jumps, but makes 10 errors.
So basically(lets say these guys are outfielders), Fielder A gets to less balls, so even though he makes less errors, the balls out of his range fall for singles, or even doubles. But Fielder B gets to those balls out of Fielder A’s range, but since he gets to more flyballs, he makes more errors, but prevents doubles and the sort.
Do you get what I’m saying? Fielder B is the better fielder, but is penalized for actually getting to more flyballs(b/c of the errors stat)
Latham Joe: Exactly on point w/ the fielding comment
McLovin: Boston i think is in it to raise the price for us. Are they really going to sign Santana to that kind of money and have Beckett wither in his shadow? Why mess with that chemistry? Not only that, the red sox are a moneyball team with money, and they will NOT commit to a 6-7 year deal on a pitcher, for that much money…it’s not them anymore
The mets are desperate, so they’re in, but i dont think their prospects are appealing enough to the twins…
I know we dont use gold gloves to asses how good a fielder is. But to say we cant use errors or fielding percentage? What can we even use to compare cano to other secondbaseman when we dont watch anyone else on a daily basis? He looks like a great second baseman but HE IS IN THE MAJORS. They are all great second baseman. If u cant play defense, you wouldnt be in the majors playing a position like second. But dont worry, Im not using Gold gloves to back up any argument or anything. They ranked cano eighth in fielding percentage so I wouldnt say he is the best – he is really good.
Dave,
Forget it. You are not changing anyone’s mind because you’re insane and don’t make a lot of sense.
I remember Roger Clemens being a sure thing in NY after winning two Cy Young Awards in Toronto and didn’t reach expectations during his tenure in pinstripes.
I can give you a hundred names of pitchers who never reached expectations and the cost in young talent for Santana would be way too much.
BTW, Cano plays everyday and is one of the top second basemen in the league – whereas Santana pitches once every five days.
Keep Cano. Keep Hughes. Keep Joba.
I would rather give up Cano than Hughes or Chamberlain because i feel cano is more easily replaceable. I know that comes as a shock to some but pitchers are much more of a hot commodity especially young pitchers that have the possibility of being future aces. Id rather have a staff of Johan, Wang, Chamberlain, Hughes and Pettitte with a decent defensive player with not much offense at second and an upgrade at center than Johan, Wang, Chamberlain, Pettitte and Moose with Cano at second. Especially if Hughes lives up to his expectations and we can have four aces all under the age of thirty. If we can trade neither Hughes or Cano thas obviously even better but i feel hughes should be more untouchable than cano. Thas why im arguing that cano isnt as good as everyone thinks he is.
if you look at zone rating for mlb 2b, Cano comes in 4th. Thats pretty good
Dave,
I’m in complete agreement with you. Mark Loretta would provide solid defense with a decent to good bat. Yankees have enough offense to weather losing Cano. I’d still really like to save the big 3!
SJ, if you are still around, who would youu rather give up for Santana? Hughes or Cano? I know you’ve said Hughes is expendible, but would you prefer if it were Cano?
All these pitchers people bring up about how they didn’t succeed in NY even after having dominant seasons and winning Cy Youngs and comparing them to Satana is foolish. Kevin Brown was what 38? and coming from the NL, Pavano also from the NL and was coming off ONE good year. Johnson was 41 coming from the NL and clearly past his prime. Clemens had success, albeit not the same success he had enjoyed in Toronto, but he was also what 35-36 when we got him? Santana is 29 and still had probly at least 4-5 prime years left in his arm. The other guys mentioned were past their primes and about ten years or more older than what Satana is now.
Bobcat:
You say lists have been exchanged and agreed on by both teams based on various scenarios. That makes it sound like this is essentially pretty close to being a done deal. If you were to rate the deal on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being absolutely no deal will occur and 10 being it’s a sure thing, where would it rate?
the funny thing is I’m arguing that Cano is a great defensive(well, and offensive) 2b, but I wouldnt throw a fit if he were traded…haha
anyways, Giuseppe, Clemens was very very valuable for us when he came over from the Jays, but obviously not always amazing…thing is, he was like 35 or so!
Guiseppe you are insane – Johan is the best pitcher in the world. Cano has a 360 obp as his career high. Santana would give us a 20 plus win pitcher for the next five yrs at least. Cano would give us another good bat in the lineup. We could pick up a hundred great bats next off season. Didnt u ever hear that PITCHING wins championships. That means we should get Johan for hitting. Damon, Jeter, arod, abreu, matsui, posada and an upgrade at center would be enuff for the lineup to score 1000 runs without cano if they all stay healthy. If hughes or chamberlain or both doesnt pan out and pettitte doesnt come back, we are looking at another yr with a unstable rotation. We need santana. Im not trying to change minds here buddy. But any one who knows about baseball would want santana on their team. You are absolutely nuts and completely without perspective to value guys ten times more than they should be cuz they were in the yankees farm system. Even Mike Francesca said today if u dont want santana on ur team – u need to learn more about the game of baseball. Pitching is key hitting is not – the yanks have had an all star lineup for three yrs and we havent gotten out of the ALDS. Lets see what happens when we bring a true ace to NY. The last time we had that was david cone and clemens for one yr. And an ace under the age of 30 – we need one of them and bad! Stop with this tunnel vision its driving me nuts that ppl dont want to part with cano, melky and prospects who havent proved a thing in the majors for a guy like santana.Tell me that again next yr when santana wins 25 games for NY and has the cy young in one hand and a world series ring in the other.
Dave & Kunaldo-
You guys get it. Your right on on this one.
“I remember Roger Clemens being a sure thing in NY after winning two Cy Young Awards in Toronto and didn’t reach expectations during his tenure in pinstripes.”
Clemens was 37 years old with 15 years of MLB pitching experience when the Yankees acquired him from Toronto. He was a “rent a pitcher” to continue the Yankee W.C. run and he did what was expected – nothing more. He wasn’t acquired to be their future ace for years to come.
and stop comparing Johan with clemens guiseppe – clemens was pretty damn old when he came to NY even the first time, i think close to 40. Johan is going to be 29 in march and had only pitched fOUR full seasons in the majors – total. AND TWO OF THEM HE WON A CY YOUNG!And that was on one team with very little offensive production.
Cano is 24 and started walking more over the second half of the season and spent time working with coach Long to just that end. He’s a great player with a great work ethic. On his baseball-reference list of 10 most similars, 5 of them are in the hall of fame (3 being Yankees Lazzeri, Dickey and Bera) and two of the non HOFers are his contemporary Joe Mauer and another is Nomar, who used to look like a Hall of Famer. Cano is a piece of the core and he’s not getting traded.
Hoffa:
7.5
Drays are trying to get a new park, here is their design.
http://www.sptimes.com/2007/we.....ndex.shtml
talk about UGLY!!
Bobcat:
I like that rating.
It seems that if the dominoes go right, then the Twins wouldn’t even want Cano; so the Cano discussion is confusing me, why is it here?
7.5…wow. When is nathan gonna be moved?
LathamJoe is on point too
Now if we could only convince Dave that fielding % and errors are ERRONEOUS! haha
by the way, Pitching isnt more important than hitting, per se. You need to score more runs than you let up, that’s it. Scoring runs(offense) is the part that we are RIDICULOUSLY good at, so that just makes the fact that our pitching isnt up to par to our offense a big deal…Our prevention of runs(pitching + defense) needs to improve, and it will with Santana, of course. But lets not neglect hitting, which cano contributes, along with great defense.
Lets also not forget that Rivera is still the only reliable arm in our pen….and he’s 38….no one else is nervous about this?
Phil-
Apparently you are satisfied with the Yankees scoring 900+ runs every year and having the best offense and then getting eliminated in the first round of the playoffs. The Sox traded Hanley Ramirez, they overpaid for a much lesser SS in Lugo, but they got there big ticket ace pitcher and look what happened. Obviously getting Santana assures us of nothing, but he would go a hell of a lot further toward bringing home a world championship than Cano. It’s great that Cano is compared to these all time greats, but it means nothing and it is no sure thing he ever becomes that. He probably will continue to improve, but he is replaceable.
Bobcat:
7.5 sounds good to me. Thanks again.
Bobcat:
Any indication how many other teams are serious contenders for Santana at this point? Given all the variable the Yankees clearly have the upper hand, so to your knowledge are there any other serious suiters as things stand right now?
“talk about UGLY!!”
really?!
I think it looks pretty cool. Im tired of these new “old” ballparks that all look the same. Camdem yards was cool, everything that came after that looks like a cookie cutter retro stadium.
The new nats stadium looks cool and new, so does this one. I like it
And its not the drays anymore, just the rays
because if we dont want to give up hughes or chamberlain, there isnt many other options of major prospects that we could trade for santana other than cano. Melky is prolly in the deal but the centerpiece is prolly either cano or hughes unless the twins take kennedy melky and a couple of prospects like horne, tabata and the like. So we are debating cano cuz i dont think any of us want to trade hughes. And why dont the twins want cano? They keep saying they want position plays and really he is our best of the young guys.
Hoffa:
Serious? One. Possible? Three.
migames:
That depends on the Twins’ trading partners. They’ve exchanged lists. Not approved, near as I can tell.
blargh:
Correct. Cano is not going anywhere.
i was gone from my computer for 3 hours and just cought up. sweeet fancy moses ! this might be the most fun i’ve ever had on the internet! keep up the good work sj and bobcat …
7.5. wowsers. bobcat, can santana be in pinstripes by the end of the week ?
Bobcat,
If the Twins are trading Garza and Santana, wouldn’t Wang be an ideal pickup in a trade with the Yankees? He is still cheap, a consecutive 19 game winner, and a reasonable quick fix if packaged with Melky and say Horne/Tabata/both.
Are you saying that the odds are heavily in favor of Johan coming to NY? And without telling us too much, give us a percentage as to whether or not Hughes is going to be in Minny in 08.
migames
I don’t like it at all!! It is supposed to have a sail or something. What happens during a hurricane or Tropical storm?
I love the retro parks, I love going to Camden I go to at least 4 games there a year (to see the Yanks of course)
Jennifer:
I agree, that’s a bad design. It is entirely too modern.
Dave:
I don’t have a lot of time to spend re-explaining the process, but if you search on my posts of yesterday, in the HOF thread and earlier today, you’ll have a lot more information. I hope you find it helpful.
hoffa, bobcat answered those questions earlier, you should back to this afternoon to read some of his earlier posts.
Hoffa – Bobcat has mentioned before that Johan only wants to go to one team. Thee Twins involved other teams for leverage but none of them reached “serious contender” status.
Mike than the Yankees must call their bluff and hold out to trade who they want to trade.
McLovin,
I’m a fan of scoring 900 runs a year and having Wang, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy and Horne in the rotation. The Yanks are growing outstanding pitching right now, and I don’t think it’s any time to trade their only great under 30 player for another pitcher. BTW, I think the Yanks will get Santana, but not for Cano or Hughes.
Jake:
The Twins have zero interest in Wang. He’s one year from arbitration, which defeats the purpose. The Twins don’t want a “quick fix”. They have TONS of pitching in their minors. They are interested in appearing to be competitive to their fans, what with the new stadium opening in 2010.
Odds on Santana coming to NY? 75% done.
Odds on Hughes going to Minn? Less than 50%
i like it the design
this is the new nats stadium:
http://www.ballparks.com/baseb.....sbpk12.htm
bobcat, are there trades that happen under the radar that your firm didnt see coming? or are those scenarios unlikely?
Jennifer – Just because he only wants to play here now doesn’t mean another team couldn’t convince him.
ThatWasMe and Mike R.:
Sorry if bobcat already answered that question. Perhaps I missed it, but I didn’t think he said only one other team was seriously involved. He did say there were a limited number. I think the answer he just gave states that there is one other team besides the Yankees that is a legitimate player. Again, if he already said that I’m sorry.
migames:
We generally see all of them first, from an analytical standpoint. Some as far as two years in advance.
That’s not to say we don’t get surprised. Depends who’s on call that day, whether we all see all of them before they happen.
The GMs do a lot more advance planning than they used to. They pretty much like to see all the scenarios, so it gets a little wild sometimes.
migames -that looks nice
Mike- while that is true if he truely has his heart set on the Yankees nothing should convince him.
bobcat, if you are free to talk about it, what was the best trade you saw that never happened?
Hoffa:
The one player is the Yankees. There are other perifery teams.
By the way, I didnt make myself clear earlier…If i had to choose whether to trade Hughes or Cano, I’d say by to Phil…As great as he could be, he’s a pitcher, and a young one at that…and who knows what he could become, good or bad…maybe he can’t handle 200 innings and breaks down? or he could become an ace in his own right…I want to see what becomes of him, but not at the cost of getting Santana…
Dave,
Yeah, Clemens was “old” with the Yanks but he won two straight Cy Young Awards his previous two seasons in Toronto.
You really don’t get it and you never will. Forget trying to persuade people to your line of thinking because it ain’t happening.
Pitching does win and I’ve never said otherwise – so don’t put words in my mouth like an idiot.
But pitching is about DEPTH – not having an ace. Matching up “aces” against each other is a crap shoot in the postseason and doesn’t guarantee you anything. Just ask Santana when he matched up against Zito in 2006.
It doesn’t matter if you have Santana if the other ace outpitches him in Game 1. Having an “ace” is overrated if you don’t have the depth to follow him in the rotation.
I’m much more worried about winning Games 2, 3, and 4 than Game 1.
The Yankee dynasty of the late 1990s and the ChiSox of 2005 prove my theory that depth is more important than an ace.
Peter,
Excellent post! I’m a big fan of the blog, and have been reading it religiously all season (and now into what has become an important season beyond the season aka offseason).
I’m a fan of Santana too, but don’t want to give away the prime pitching prospects. Everybody keeps saying “But look, he has pitched more innings than any other,’ to fend off complaints about his age/durability. I say wouldn’t that mean he’s bound to be worn down faster? Like say after a nice new lofty contract with the men in pinstripes. Also, they say that he’s won 2 Cy youngs and you can’t go against that kind of talent. But that’s in the past, not the future. Our guys are going to get better…yes Santana is a known, but he’s only going down from here.
Hi Bobcat:
John Heyman is posting that the Twins’ first choice for a trading partner is the Sox for Ellsbury/Lester. If the Sox relent on Ellsbury, are the Yanks out? Have you heard of a supposed rumor that the Yanks may be looking at a trade for Huston Street?
Tyler Kepner — “And after watching Hughes develop in their farm system, the Yankees know about his [Hughes'] outstanding feel for pitching and his makeup, which complement his *extraordinary* stuff.”
SJ44 makes Phil Hughes seem mediocre in one of his posts.
Whose assessment should I believe, Tyler or SJ44?
Bobcat:
Thanks for the clarification.
bobcat,
i read ur posts from yesterday. They were informative but didnt really say who the yanks would really have to offer to get santana. Id prefer that cano, hughes, and chamberlain were all not involved obviously. But if i had to pick one to be id want cano to be the one traded. I love hughes already. If the twins really have no option but to trade him to the yanks, they really shouldnt have to give up too much to get him – melky, horne and tabata/jackson type deal at the worst.
Coney:
Everyone loves Ellsbury. He’s not going anywhere, though.
TOP:
Remember what we post: you read what you are allowed to read. I would judge SJ44’s valuation as less impartial than Tyler’s interpretation of the Yankees’ rhetoric.
ESPN was reporting at 6 on Sports Center that the Twins are set to make a six player tarde with Tampa Bay, with the cebter peice from the Twins being Matt Garza and the Rays package being centered around Delmon Young.
To me, this could mean one of two things…
Either, A) They traded Garza because they know they are about to get two really good pitchers and at least one if not two really decent position prospects in a Johan deal. By getting Delmon Young, they add an outfielder who can hit, but by giving up Garza, that means they must be trying to fill two rotation spots in a possible Santana trade… Is Garza’s slot for Liriano’s return? Or or they banking on getting a package based on two top tier pitching prospects and a mid tier position guy, a la Melky or even possibly Coco, and the main part of the package being pitchers such as Hughes and Kennedy OR Buchholz and Lester?
OR
B) And by getting a bonafide outfielder that has decent power like Young, does that mean now they’ll be trying to get an infielder (in a package with pitchers), such as 2B Cano ? I heard the Red Sox would offer SS prospect Jed Lowrie or even Kevin Youkilis for Johan.(!)Youk!!!
This trade with the Rays has created so many new possible ramifications and scenarios with a possible Santana trade. Tim Kurkijian said he still thinks the Yankees are the front runners for Johan, but he also said two tears ago that the White Sox were imminent in trading for Al Soriano from the Nats…
Still, with Garza gone and even with Liriano back, you wonder if a package of IPK, Horne, Melky and one of Tabata/Gardner could even get it done anymore…
Now, if they want him, and it sounds like Hank does, then I bet it will take a package of Hughes, IPK, Melky and possibly one of Tabata/Gardner/Duncan(Shelley)/ or even another pitcher, such as Horne…
Whaddya think???????
Dave:
If you read my posts, you know I can only go so far as to names in potential trades. Cano is off the table, I can tell you that.
Ian Patrick Kennedy had a poor second half in the minors, as pointed out. How about judging him against MLB teams. 15 Ks in 19 innings with a solid ERA an low walks-hits
DATE OPP W L ERA SV IP H ER BB SO
SEP 01 TB 1 0 1.29 0 7.0 5 1 2 6
SEP 07 @KC 0 0 2.25 0 5.0 7 2 3 2
SEP 13 @TOR 0 0 1.89 0 7.0 1 1 4 7
Totals 1 0 1.89 0 19.0 13 4 9 15
Shamus:
Take 15 minutes and read today’s posts. It will help. Search on my S/N.
i really dont like hornes peripherals. He had a 1.34 whip in double A which is far worse than chamberlain and kennedy and 100 times worse than hughes. There is no one more over-rated than horne. I guess everyone looks at the superb 12-4 record and the fantastic 3.11 era and thinks wow amazing. Fact is, the guy was letting up a hit per inning and over 3 walks per 9 and this is double A. That wouldnt even be very good in the majors. I dunno why horne is valued so highly by scouts cuz his peripheral are pretty awful for double A. He must just have nasty stuff but didnt show it by the numbers or maybe he buckled down and showed his stuff with men on which resulted in the low era. Either way, I hope horne is involved in the trade for santana if it goes down. I dont think his value will be any higher and i think he is going to get crushed in the majors. I have to say he is a strike out machine tho but it doesnt matter when u r constantly letting men on base.
If I remember what Bobcat said right, the general flow will be that the Twins will try to trade Nathan to someone (probably in the NL Central) for position players
Then after that goes through, they’ll send Santana over to the Yankees for young, cheap pitchers, both starting and relieving?
Bobcat you quoted Santan as saying he only wants to play for one team.Matsuzaka said he wanted to play for the Yankees and,7 figures later he’s not a yankee. So I wonder will Santana fold like a cheap suit when the benjami’s are flashed.Also it was quoted Santana loves NY,does that specifically mean the NY Yankees?
roundabout poor 2nd half of the season? he was promoted three times. he had better numbers than joba, how can u say he had poor numbers ?
bobcat,
Cano is off the table? What is the chance of trading hughes? I cant imagine they would trade the best prospect they have had since Mo and Jeter… Is there a possibility of giving up kennedy as the centerpiece of the deal with melky and prospects? Or is that too little for santana?
SHARP SHOOTER,
Dice-K didn’t really have the same kind of choice as Santana because of the Japanese bidding process.
Dave-
You should check out NoMaas, the link is posted on the menu to the right on this blog. They provided a scouting report on Horne that sounded great, but your right his peripherals don’t seem to match up. I don’t know what to make of him.
IMO, if the Yankees have to give up BOTH Hughes and IPK, along with two top position prospects, such as Melky, Gardner, Tabata, Jackson, something, then they should try to get Johan and Nathan.
Nathan is a one year rental, albeit a cheap one, but still, they know he won’t stay if Johan goes, along with Torii, and typically, a one year rental doesn’t fetch much more than a really good prospect or two…
Look what the Sox gave up for Gagne, and he was cruising before he went to Beantown, then he got hammered.
I say if they have two give up the house, then Nathan should be in play too…
Matsuzaka had no choice but to go to the Red Sox because they won the bid for him.
No other team was allowed to negotiate with him once that happened.
Comparing these situations is apples and oranges.
id rather see horne go than stay his peripherals are awful and its only double A. I truly think his value will never ever be higher than it is this off-season. Similar to clippard last yr who actually stupidly felll for even tho his stuff wasnt very good – alot of ppl loved him and he just cant hack it in the majors. I think horne will be one more chase wright, tyle clippard, steven white type that probably never makes it. I have more faith in guys like whelan and mcclutchen and even ohlendorf
The twins plucked Santana from the Houston system and Nathan and Liriano from the Giants system. I think Cashman generally has done a good job, but in no way do I want his even speaking to the Twins. Step away from the phone, Mr. Cashman.
Shamus:
There is no way we give up Hughes AND IPK for Santana.
Bobcat: where are you getting your feelers from?
yea dice k had no choice – horrible comparison. Its def a positive that he wants to play in NY but if we want the twins to give the yanks a discount because of that reason, i would think that santana would have to say he would only want to play for ny publicly to the media. Otherwise, all the other teams remain in play. Suure santana could want ny but if the twins make a deal with someone who is offering a better package, santana would have to say no in order for the twins to be forced to trade with the yanks thereby giving the yanks a discount. If that is the case, why doesnt he just come out and say it to the media now, so he can save the twins some time.
Hoffa
Dice-k was going to be a free agent after this year,like Santana will be next year.He(Dice- chose the money instead remember? Boras didn’t want to miss out on his share as agent.
Cash is a patient man, and I bet he will wait out the Twins as they search in vain for other suitors and then swoop and get him on his own terms.
Hoffa No problem, Bobcat has been great, I really appreciate his input, I’ve been glued to this site for two days. He has been here for awhile today and newcomers tend to ask him questions he has answered earlier.
This is an interesting theory, posted over at mlbtraderumors.com. Kind of makes sense from some angles:
”
Johan Demands Changed?
In this post written at 11am today, I outlined the seven or so clubs with a shot at acquiring Twins ace Johan Santana. However the acquisition of Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie from the Rays changes everything.
First, the loss of Matt Garza lessens the chances of trading Santana at least a little bit. The Twins have pitching depth, but that’d be 40% of their 2007 rotation gone. It was probably always the case, but it’s definite now that if the Twins trade Santana this winter they need a very good MLB-ready starter in return.
Second, the Twins no longer need any outfielders. Sure, they could add another center fielder to be safe or even move Michael Cuddyer back to third base. But in my mind third base becomes the primary need for the Twins.
So now Bill Smith should be looking for an elite young hurler and a similar young third baseman. The Yankees and Red Sox can’t offer that. The Mets, Mariners, and Cubs don’t have it either. The Angels might – Nick Adenhart and Brandon Wood. The Dodgers could pull it off too, with Andy LaRoche and Chad Billingsley. How about a wild card like the Reds? They’ve got Homer Bailey and Edwin Encarnacion. And I imagine the Twins would find a way to work Jay Bruce in if they could get him.
”
Huh?
BC,
ITS A different GM im pretty sure. They do tend to make extremely lucky deals, they recieved Johan, Nathan, Liriano and Garza all in deals they didnt give up very much for.
Bobcat
Great information today. It seems like Nathan to the brewers makes a lot of sense. They have all the pieces and more in terms of young position players. Are we talking about prospects at the La Porta level or something more developed off the major league roster like JJ Hardy?
Have the yankees internally really downgraded their opinion of Hughes or is this a matter of Santana being a once in a decade opportunity?
Thanks
But then, an a little while later, he wrote this… I like teh MLBtr site, guy there Tim is pretty good. Pete even has him linked up on his favs.
”
Matt Garza For Delmon Young Blockbuster Close
UPDATE, 11-28-07 at 4pm: Neal reports that the Twins have interest in Aaron Rowand, which is really surprising given his reported demands. I don’t see it. Neal adds that Craig Monroe may now be non-tendered and the Garza trade will not stop Bill Smith from shopping Johan Santana. By the way, talks for Coco Crisp persist.
FROM 11-28-07 at 2pm:
Wow! That rumor really didn’t die! La Velle E. Neal III says the Twins are close to a multiplayer deal. They’ll send Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett, and Juan Rincon to the Rays for Delmon Young, Brendan Harris, and Jason Pridie. I can’t remember any kind of young player blockbuster like this recently.
It’s exciting to see Bill Smith pull the trigger on a deal to get that possible elite slugger. Will he be more hesitant to trade Johan Santana now? Or maybe it doesn’t matter since he’d require an elite young hurler like Phil Hughes in return. Beyond Young, you also have to applaud Smith for getting Pridie, who immediately becomes the Twins’ center fielder of the future. The 24 year-old came back from injuries this year to rake in Triple A. Just like that, the Twins have an outfield.
“
If Sports Illustrated is correct or close to the mark, the Yanks may not have to give up Hughes
Here it is:
“The Twins have asked the Yankees for one of three top pitching prospects — Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes or Ian Kennedy — plus center fielder Melky Cabrera and one or two younger prospects. While the Yankees say they won’t surrender Chamberlain, who became a fan favorite during his late-season callup, they must know they’d have to give up either Hughes or Kennedy to have a chance at Santana. The Yankees are also believed willing to deal Cabrera for Santana even if it leaves a temporary hole in center field.
The article states Boston would be the lead contende. If they “relent and include young outfield phenom Jacoby Ellsbury in trade talks for Johan Santana, Boston would probably lead the high-stakes sweepstakes for the two-time Cy Young Award winner. But to this point, the Red Sox have declined to include Ellsbury in a package that centers around young left-handed pitcher Jon Lester.
The Mets have talked to the Twins, but their chances are hindered by Minnesota’s apparent disinterest in the Mets’ pitching prospects. The Mets quickly dismissed the Twins’ request for either Jose Reyes or David Wright, and while Minnesota appears interested in the Mets’ positional prospects, the situation is complicated because the Twins might have to spin off one of the Mets’ prospects for a pitcher to have any chance to make it work for them.
Further hindering the Mets’ chances, their top positional prospects — Lastings Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez — are all outfielders. The Twins were reportedly in serious talks Wednesday to send their young pitcher Matt Gaza in a trade to Tampa Bay for a package that includes five-tool outfielder Delmon Young.
The Angels are focused on acquiring a hitter — Miguel Cabrera, preferably — for the middle of their order. The Dodgers have suggested recently that they may not do anything major in terms of player acquisitions.
All of which could leave the Santana derby as a battle between the Yankees and Red Sox.
I think garza is over-rated another pitcher with pretty awful peripherals like whip, BB/9 AND H/9. I cant believe the twins would trade garza and Santana in one off-season – that is the large majority of their good starting rotation. But they claim to have pitching prospects. If that deal goes thru, there is no way we could acquire Johan without tradin away hughes. I doubt kennedy would be enough. At that point, i would give them both for Johan and Nathan – that solves our bullpen problem and starting rotation but mortgages our future in the process. Im so torn on getting hughes autograph for hanukkah right now. DAMMIT! Why Hughes why? Why cant they take anyone else not named Joba. Take wang who cares just not hughes
Its strange how the twins seem to think that Hughes and Kennedy are of equal caliber – very wierd
I have time for a couple of more posts. Hopefully, I haven’t missed anyone’s questions. I apologize if I did.
Dave:
Hughes could go, depends on what the Twins need/demand. The more they want at the A+ level, the less they get at the A- level. Volume is one of their goals; not the only one, but one.
Shamus:
“Huh?” is being kind. Not much meat there.
CB:
I’m going to make you think. What do the Brewers have that could be considered an “excess” that would fill holes that the Twins have, given that Cuddyer is slated to move to 3B? It will take at least two very good players to get Nathan, as he IS the ticket to the NL Central title. The other two teams in that division that need a closer will be upping the ante.
jay:
Read my posts. I come as clean as I can.
Sharp Shooter:
The Twins are hoping that $$ sways Santana. There is only one team that will pay what he wants, though. One.
SHARP SHOOTER:
I stand corrected. I forgot Dice-K’s contract ended after this year. And yes, I remember the Boras moves all too well.
Bobcat,
How about this offer for Santana:
Melky, Shelly D, Clippard, Razner
McLovin, what you say may be true, but what you leave out tells the real story.
Boston was #1 in team ERA.
However, Boston was #2 in OPS.
Beckett, w/200 IPS, was about 14% of total innings pitched, so his direct impact over a RLP was small compared to the entire team effort.
2 other teams has pitchers as good as Becket and did NOT make the PS.
This idea that Beckett ‘pushed them over the top’ is absurd.
ARod, as an individual, has FAR MORE impact on the Yanks making the PS then did Beckett with the Sox.
The Yanks were #1 in OPS, but only #8 (of 14) in ERA.
This is not good, but they still made the WC, 3 games behind Boston.
If our 2008 pitching is in the top 3 in TEAM ERA, we should sail into the PS.
Our best SP, who has a BETTER CAREER ERA+ then Beckett, tanked in TWO GAMES. Any PS team, that has their BEST SP tank in 2 games, will probably lose. However, if not for a 1 in a million occurance of the Midges, I think we still beat Cleveland.
Is having great pitching important? Of course.
Is having a great ace important? Of course.
But these are just pieces of the whole puzzle.
Great teams are well balanced teams. They are in the top 2 or 3 in Pitching and Offense. Running and defense play their part too.
Wakefield had a worse then league average ERA but won 17 games, only 3 less then Beckett. Schrill’s ERA was almost a run better then Wakes, but he only won 9 games. Offense has a LOT to do with the final equation.
Gary:
Can’t comment specifically, but, um… no.
Give to get. The one year rental is VERY important to the Yankees. They will pay, not care, and re-stock. Think like them and it’s okay.
One thing fans need to be careful of is becoming too paternal toward their team’s prospects. It’s a business and everyone in it, knows it. The passion comes at that fan level. The Yankee fans have for so long been without any real prospects to follow and attach themselves to, that now that they have some, there is some difficulty in letting go. Let go.
Bobcat:
Are we looking at a deal that looks more like IPK, Melky, Tabata and Austin Jackson?
Hoffa I respect you so much for that retraction.It was said by one on this blog, that it was a *horrible* comparison,touche.I just remember Dice-k saying how he loved the history of the yankees.So it shocked me that instead of waiting a yr he took the money,with Boras’s prodding I’m sure.
The reason I like Bobcat is because he doesn’t have to name call or put others down,it’s an open forum,and he gives the good info too.
SHARP SHOOTER – Are you comparing the ONE TIME, SEALED bidding process of getting a Japanese pitcher to the MLB free agency market?????????? Really?????
Hoffa:
You know I can’t comment specifically, but they are on a few versions of the lists.
Be patient. Whatever goes, goes. There are more where they came from.
Geesh Hoffa,,, I hope we don’t give up that package, who does that leave to play CF under the age of 32?
Yikes…
Bobcat:
Yes fans should be able to let go of their attachment to some prospects, just not Hughes or Chamberlain.
Shamus:
The Yankees will score 1,000 runs this year. You could play CF for them.
Bobcat – do you think the Johan trade will occur before/during/after the winter meetings?
Greg:
That is the difficult part. The difference is, the suits won’t trade them because of their business value. Fans won’t trade them because of their emotional value.
Seymour:
Could be any time, pending the other trades the Twins accomplish. The Santana trade is the last one, unless they get floored.
Old Yanks Fan-
My point was that in the post season Beckett had a huge impact on the Red Sox success more than he did in the regular season. A bonified ace is the single greatest commodity for a team in the post season. I don’t think that is debateable. And don’t compare Wang to Beckett. I don’t care who has the better career ERA+. Beckett is obviously far superior to Wang, no question about it. Beckett had a rough 2006 and before that he never had a truly “great” full season. This season he clearly matured a lot and in the playoffs, no question about it he was the best pitcher in the game.
You’re right offense is important. But somehow, I think the Yankees would survive without Cano if they had to give him up. He’s replaceable and their lineup would still be plenty productive in my opinion. You mention that balance is needed and you’re 100% right. But, this Yankee team we’ve seen of late has not been balanced. It’s been all offense and not enough pitching. Hopefully the kids can solve that problem, but I know I’d feel better about it if we had Santana while keeping Hughes and Chamberlain.
Okay, I’m out. I may check later, but I don’t expect anything to break overnight.
Stranger things have happened, though.
SHARP SHOOTER:
I think you are dead on. A lot of guys give a team lip service, but in the end follow the money. I don’t think it is a horrible comparison at all.
Old Yanks Fan No No No I’m comparing Two players that have stated that they want to play for the Yankees.That’s my ONLY comparison.Dice-k isn’t Santana I’m fully aware,enough already.
BobCat -
Thanks for underscoring the importance of the 1 year (2008) rental. Sounds like the Yanks will be more than fair with the Twins…if Johann is intent on wearing pinstripes in 2009 (at the latest).
Johann wants dinero – Yanks Got
Twins want:
1 starting CF – Yanks Got (Melkman)
Plus
1 ML Quality RP – Yanks got (FARNSY + Yanks pick up most of contract)
Plus
1 young ML ready SP – Yanks Got (Hughes)
or
2 reasonably close ML ready SP – Yanks Got (IPK and one of thousands of promising arms on the Yankee Farm).
Interesting…
Hoffa this has been a remarkable day with all the insider updates from Bobcat,of what he could share.
Who is Bobcat and what makes him such a great person to go to info for
Gary,
Replace Farnsworth with Humberto Sanchez
Kurt,
Read previous threads (MVP) and catch up.
What does MVP mean and if you Humberto might not be ready he just came off Tommy John but if he is ready i agree
so he was some insider guy for the Yanks is that it
MVP was a topic Pete set up yesterday. In that thread, Bobcat qualifies his information.
In short, he works as a consultant to MLB teams and sees trade proposals before the public. Due to non-disclosure agreements, he can’t tell us the specifics.
Hoffa and Sharpshooter…
Your Dice-K comments are way, way off.
First off, it was thought that the bid MIGHT go as high as $30m and Dice-K’s salary would be around $15m/yr. As it turns out, the bid was $51m, and Dice-K got slightly less then $9m/yr. So he ended up getting much less then what was predicted. If he had waited a year and became a FA, my guess is the Yanks would have gone somwhere around 6/$90m. So Dice-K lost almost $40 million! And Boras lost too.
The Sox were smart. The offer to Dice-K was very low, but what could Dice-K do? Go back to Japan? Aside from losing ‘face’, he would have cost his team the $51m bid fee, which would have been very bad.
I think (not sure) Sanchez is suppose to be back in the 2nd half.
If you just need to be right have at it.
Sanchez is a major prospect. Sh