Name the pitcher, win a prize. Or maybe not
-
- November
- 28
Here’s a little quiz, baseball fans:
This pitcher was 3-2 with a 5.70 ERA against teams from the AL East last season (not counting the Yankees).
He was 5-7, 4.04 in the second half of the season, allowing 88 hits (16 of them home runs) over 98 innings. The 33 home runs he allowed for the season were nine more than in any other previous season. Scouts have noticed he appears hesitant to throw his slider.
He has one victory in five career playoff starts.
Look, I love Johan Santana and if the Yankees can get him for IPK, the Melkman and another kid, than good for them. That is doubtful, however, and I’m not so sure this is a pursue-at-all-costs move.
Santana was once a kid. The Twins plucked him out the Houston system, nurtured him in the bullpen for the better part of four years and then he exploded. Why can’t the Yankees stick with their plan?
Name me all the pitchers with $100 million contracts that proved worth the price. Plenty will people tell you Santana is different and maybe he is. He probably is. Or maybe he’s the next Mike Hampton or Kevin Brown or Barry Zito.
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, November 28th, 2007 at 11:10 am by Peter Abraham.
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Completely agree, Pete. BC should hold steady.
the Saux, Angels, or Dodgers are not going to pay Santana $25 million a season. that’s just not going to happen.
the way i see it, it’s between the Yankees and Mets, and unless the Mets empty everything they have, Kennedy, Melky and Tabata trumps any package they put together. That simple.
BC just needs to realize he’s bidding against only himself here.
you’re preachin’ to the choir. i’d MUCH rather them either stick with our young guns and or go after danny haren
Totally agree. It’s a total crapshoot and $126m+/6-7 years and giving up three to five of your best kids is too high of an asking price. Lets go into 2008 with what we have now (hopeful for Pettitte), and play out the season. My guess is if “The Big Three” all start for the Yankees next year they will all beat their expectations two-fold. Besides, its a helluva lot cheaper to do it this way too.
Santana is not the difference maker everyone thinks he is. You need to be a power pitcher to be an ace in the AL East, and this is a guy who’s strikeout pitch is a changeup. If the Yanks can get him for IPK, Melky, and Tabata, I’m all for it. Hang up if the Twins want more. Who else is realistically going to give this guy $150 million?
Im gonna guess that pitcher is Johan Santana??? lol.
Santana is different though, I mean look at Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, and Barry Zito’s stats they all really aren’t even close to what Santana has been doing over the last 4 or 5 seasons. Santana can throw high 90s when you have Hampton who has never been a hard thrower, and same with Kevin Brown. The new management has to make an impact, I don’t want them to deal Phil Hughes or Joba Chamberlain i’m hoping they can take Kennedy, Melky, Horne, and maybe another pitcher. I mean that’s a good deal right? It fills 2 rotation spots and there centerfield vacany.
IPK, Melky and another minor league pitcher..pull the trigger. No Tabata..hold onto this kid and Jackson. Future centerfielder and right fielder to take over for Abreu.
Please tell me who plays center next year if Cabrera is dealt.
I’d rather give up IPK, Austin Jackson, and Tabata.
How Do , I would Not Over Pay in terms of Cano or Hughes. The Yankees are in the Driver’s seat on this one . Make a fair offer IPK-Melky-Tabata that’s it . DO NOT TRADE CANO or HUGHES .
Very Nice !!!
The twins actually got Santana from the Marlins, who had gotten him from the Astros via Rule 5 draft.
and you also have to understand it wasn’t like Santana was pitching for anything, he was out of the Cy Young race and his team was pretty much out of contention after the first 2 months and he had a 3.33 ERA, he had a ton of strikeouts and he doesn’t walk a whole lot of batters. Put him with the Yankees next year he will win a tleast 18 games, his ERA won’t be any worst than 3.40, he will not allow anymore than 25 homerun.
let the mets have him.
You forgot the 4.00 ERA in the playoffs and the 0-5 record vs. their top rival (Cleveland). AND the FACT that Phil Hughes already has just as many postseason wins. Seriously the “idiot logic” out there on this potential move is frightening.
...& Horne too if they want him.
How many pitchers have had $100 million contracts? Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton and Barry Zito. Is that a big enough sample? How many times have baseball revenues been over $6 billion? So $100 million isn’t worth what it used to be?
How many times have highly touted pitching prospects fizzled as their careers went on? Remember Generation K a dozen years ago in Queens? Or wood and Prior with the Cubs?
Of course if Santana comes and signs with the yankees, doesn’t that further disprove the “Yankees won’t be able to sign any free agents now that they insulted Joe Torre by offering him a one year deal” that Abraham was saying last month? Rodriguez, Posada and Rivera have already proven that wrong and while players like Torre, they love money even more (as Torre did when he went to the Dodgers. No Pittsburgh Pirates for Torre).
The post season record of Santana is 1-3 with a 3.97 ERA. But his last three starts (2004, 2006) it is 1-1 with a 1.35 ERA.
save phil hughes:
THANK YOU
I agree it.
We need a power pitcher,an real ACE.
None ACE since 2004.
Just look at the postseason. L0L
Sing that gospel, Pete. Sing it loud. Sing it proud.
Forget Johan. Get us a bullpen, damnit.
Mitchell’s Eleven (cool name)...
The bullpen can’t save a game when the Yanks are losing 10-0 in the third inning of an ALCS or World Series game 7.
Irabu’s Son-
“The Yankees are apparently willing to consider moving Cabrera, who hit .291 with 58 RBI after taking over as the Yankees’ regular center fielder, because they told the agent for free-agent center fielder Aaron Rowand they would have interest in Rowand if they trade Cabrera”
But at what point does the money run out and you realize you are pretty much back in the same old boat. An aging team of superstars….
For the right price, it’s a good deal. If Minny gets greedy, pass. Santana knows the deal.
Irabu’s son, we have a center fielder. His name is Johnny Damon.
Anybody who thinks Johan isn’t a difference maker is nuts. The guy is the best pitcher in baseball over the last 5 years and it’s not even close. Pete just cherry-picked some stats but that’s not fair to Johan. He is the best and most dominant pitcher in the game today.
I also think the Yankees should not trade for him because the price will be too high. But trying to rationalize it by pretending that it’s because Johan isn’t all that good is just nonsensical.
Save Ferris too, while you’re at it.
You forgot the 4.00 ERA in the playoffs and the 0-5 record vs. their top rival (Cleveland). AND the FACT that Phil Hughes already has just as many postseason wins. Seriously the “idiot logic†out there on this potential move is frightening.”
Chalk it up to poor run support. Give Santana Wangs run support and he would easily won 20+ games.
As for the playoff stats, he’s had what? 5 starts? Most of which came years ago and against the mighty Yankees. I’d rather look at his recent 3, which were pretty good to say the least.
You know what’s stupid?
People who wouldn’t trade Kennedy, Tabata/Prospect, and Melky. That’s the rumored deal, and it probably for won’t stay at that but for arguments sake, you wouldn’t do that deal?
Good points about Santana’s performance Pete. There’s no question he’s really good but there is a limit to what a team’s net gain could be to get him. He’s not the second coming of Doc Gooden or Pedro in their primes. Perhaps IPK, Melky and another b-level prospect would be the limit. This assumes Tabata’s the real deal, and can play CF in a year or two at the most. No deals with Hughes or Joba.
Throughout the year I’ve heard various IPK comparisons to a young Mike Mussina. They could just mean he reminds people of Moose for a variety of reasons. But I wonder how many scouts who know what they’re talking about see IPK as someone who would actually become as good as Mussina was in his prime.
I really don’t know … Joba’s obviously got the tools and Hughes showed convincing flashes of his potential through his rehab/comeback, but I really haven’t seen enough of IPK yet. Pete? If he’s on par with Moose at the same age, our net gain over 6 years by losing IPK & Melky for Santana would be little if nothing.
If the 3 kids are all the real deal, and none go the route of Kerry Wood or Mark Prior, then we’re better in the long haul with all of them instead of Santana. We might be better off convincing Pettitte to stay another year or two instead.
Now, where’d I put my crystal ball?
if Johan wants to come to NY he knows what he has to do, I wouldn’t up any offer, offer what we can Kennedy, Melky,Horne, if Minny starts screing w/ us go after Scott Kazmir
i am for johan.
(screwing)Pete you need an edit option here
Global Warming, for some reason your post made me chuckle, the way you wrote “Santana Wangs” without the apostrophe.
It would be a great name for a band. The Santana Wangs.
Because this is Johan Santana. Not Denny Neagle, not an old Randy Johnson, not a beat up Kevin Brown. Santana had an off year by his standard, but he’s still 28, not 38. You can’t let a guy like this go. Look at the difference Beckett has made for the Sox. And they paid a price in giving up Hanley Ramirez.
me too, but I don’t like being held up for one player, especially one who may or may not have health issues
There have been a lot of potential packages of players thrown around with people trying to think up what would be fair value or enough for santana.
Here’s another way of looking at it.
The Twins will be forced to accept the best package of talent they are offered that is better than the compensations picks they’d get if Santana walks. They will be further forced to pick this best package of talent from the very small handful of teams Santana wants to play for.
That’s it. That’s all the yankees have to do – offer that best package better than the draft picks. Yes you have to “give value to get it†but value depends on circumstance. Right now santana’s value is relatively low because there is not much of a viable market for him.
Best package better than two draft picks from a team Santana would accept a trade to.
That’s the parameters of this deal.
What is the plan that the Yanks are not sticking to? Holding onto prospects at all costs? What the hell sorta plan is that…
mel,
Johnny Damon is as broken-down and pathetic-looking center field as Bernie Williams was in his last years…
Damon should exclusively be a left fielder.
Matsui should exclusively be a DH.
Melky should be the center fielder. I like Rowan but as Bronx Stop said…...
Scott Kazmir
Poor Mets.(>.
It’s true that Santana had a rougher go in the second half last season and it’s true that $100 million contracts usually backfire. This guy is different from all of the others, however. This is Johan Santana that we’re talking about, the best pitcher in the game. He’s only going to be 29 at the start of the season. He has plenty of life left in that arm. If Cashman feels like he can’t resist and needs to go full-bore for Santana, then he should do it if the price is not too high. A good GM follows his instincts and doesn’t worry about the mistakes of others who have authorized $100 million contracts. Sure, those other large contracts backfired, but those have nothing to do with Santana or this deal.
Because this is Johan Santana. Not Denny Neagle, not an old Randy Johnson, not a beat up Kevin Brown. Santana had an off year by his standard, but he’s still 28, not 38. You can’t let a guy like this go. Look at the difference Beckett has made for the Sox. And they paid a price in giving up Hanley Ramirez.
Exactly. The Yankees lack and have lacked for sometime, that stud pitcher anchoring their rotation. With Pettitte seemingly not coming back, it makes plenty of sense to grab the best pitcher in baseball.
It’s quite humerous when Pete and people on this blog compare him to Brown, Zito, Pavano, etc.
It’s not even close folks.
Hey global warming, I can play the speculation game too: Phil Hughes will win 30 games next year with a 0.00 ERA. Give me a break. His trends are trending upward. And no, as a pitcher, that’s not a good thing.
Poor run support? I think the 5.40 ERA vs. the AL east also helped. His 4.00 ERA is also a reason for the playoff losses. And he is consistently outpiched by the other team’s aces. Sabathia, Carmona owned him. And don’t forget his last postseason start where he got knocked around in the top of the 1st and helped earn Barry Zito a 126 million dollar contract.
And my point is that you DONT deal Hughes for him or anyone else. Period. Here’s a deal:
Kennedy
Matsui
Cabrera
Karstens
“The Santana Wangs.”
Could be a reality soon
The key hear is Johan has the NTC, has already expressed he’d want to play in NY, so don’t overload on the kitchen sink for this guy
Hope they stand pat, and I think they will. I’m betting Santana does not end up in pinstripes. Hughes will have an extremely improved 2008 which will translate into him being on the way to realizing his true potential. I think Joba will have an adjustment period, for us fans that is, as most of us have never seen him as a starter. There might be a significant “let down” factor after watching hom dominate for 1-2 innings at a time and then seeing him go through AL East lineups over 6-7 innings.
In the long run, I think it’s a safe bet that Joba and Hughes will be anchoring the staff. Add pitchers from other teams at your own risk, Mr. Cashman. The Yankees have been burned with nearly every ML pitcher acquired over the past 3-4 years with the exception of Andy.
The key here is Johan has the NTC, has already expressed he’d want to play in NY, so don’t overload on the kitchen sink for this guy
agreed, Pete. Blessed if we do, blessed if we don’t. Though Santana’s NTC and prohibitive salary demands will limit what the Twins can get for him.
Yeah, people said the same thing about Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. How did that go. AND ZITO OUTPITCHED SANTANA IN THE PLAYOFFS. Please support your conclusions with something other than “this is Johan Santana”, Mr. Joel Sherman, er, I mean Global Warming.
I’m with you Pete. I’m not a fan of trading any of our youngsters for Santana.
Right now, the main reason I would want Santana is simply to keep him away from Boston.
If there was some sort of assurance that he would hold out until after the season, I would rather wait and get him via free agency.
I’d also rather go for Kazmir.
Don’t deal Melky.
And if you extrapolate the future from a single season Mariano Rivera is in decline too.
Three countervailing Jamesian/McCracken stats that suggest Santana’ ERA was an aberration:
1) His walk totals didn’t vary by a statistically significant amount from his annual mean, about 49 BBs.
2) His Strike Out totals, 235, didn’t depart significantly from his best seasons and moreover, ranked second in the AL, four behind Kazmir.
3) The percentage of groundball he induced was 38%, about 2% less than his previous 3 years, albeit not a statistically significant amount.
“Hey global warming, I can play the speculation game too: Phil Hughes will win 30 games next year with a 0.00 ERA. Give me a break. His trends are trending upward. And no, as a pitcher, that’s not a good thing.”
Hmm
Having high expectations for a rookie/young pitcher who was hurt this year.
OR
Having high expectations for the best pitcher in baseball in junction with the best run support in baseball.
You got me there.
Seriously, so much negative talk for all the positive things said about Johan.
Take a pass Cashman and Hank, its probably not worth it in the long run.
Irabu,
I know all that. You asked who would play center field if we traded Melky. Well, the fact of the matter is we’re paying Damon something like $13M to play center. I’d rather have a Johan/Damon combo rather than a Kennedy/Melky combo and I LOVE Ian.
Damon will play with a chip on his shoulder if he gets the center field job back for a year. Once again, this is not ideal, but if we get Johan I can’t see going and getting Rowand or Jones. That’s just dumb.
Phil Hughes isnt even OUR best pitching prospect, let alone anything close to being the best prospect in the league. He is a good step below BuckHoles the laptop stealer for christ sake and prolly less of a talent than Lester when all is said and done… and unless he develops a MUCH better change, Joba will be looking down at him for a long time.
Point is, time to get off this kids package – he is a good prospect, I like him, want him to stay a Yankee, but he is not our savior and no way do you hold a kid like this when you get a Santana… no way.
ps: After seeing his picture on his website here, http://philiphughes.net, I almost want us to trade him… lol, what is with the faux club boy thug look?
“Name me all the pitchers with $100 million contracts that proved worth the price.”
None, but that’s not really the question. Talent costs are relative and float in a market affected by numerous factors from season to season.
Kevin Brown was older and had a pronounced DL tendency when the Yankees acquired him. Hampton? I never understood the big deal about Hampton. Barry Zito? He was never worth that money, being on a downhill trend since his Cy Young season. He was in the market at the right time and rode the wave with Boras.
The Yankees are looking into acquiring a 28 year old lefty pitcher who has two Cy Youngs. Despite giving up a league leading total of HRs last year, he was still in the top ten in almost every other pitching performance category. Lefties are especially valuable with Yankee Stadium’s short right field porch and as SJ likes to point out, Santana has a low impact motion (unlike Brown) and that bodes well for durability.
Scouts noticed that Wang threw his sinker less often last year too. Was that due to injury, pain, the fact that Wang was becoming too predictable or because he wanted to be a more complete pitcher? Except for the last factor the same ambiguity exists about Santana’s “reluctance” to throw his slider. There’s no reason to conclude it’s an injury issue without more information.
Even if the trade involves Hughes, you are talking about trading a potential star for a proven one. Hughes is in fact more likely to have another injury next season if they do not keep him to a tight pitch count, making sure he does not increase his workload more than a certain percentage. No such limits on the usually healthy and durable Santana. To me the injury issue is a non-issue as to each player. Still, Hughes had a freak injury last year. It could happen to any player even one without an injury history.
And it’s not a pursue at all costs type move. No Joba, no Cano, and only one of IPK and Hughes. The Yanks would be giving up an average CF with a light bat, a minor league OF and/or pithing prospect and one high ceiling young pitcher to get a proven, star lefty pitcher who is only going to be 29 next year.
The Yankees are deep right now in pitching and OF prospects thanks to Cashman. Prospects do two things: fill your roster with cheap MLB talent and provide chips for trades that improve your MLB roster instead of going out to an overpriced FA market. With the money coming off the books soon on Giambi, Pavano and others, this is a sound move to make.
SavePhilHughes:
“Heres a deal:
Kennedy
Matsui
Cabrera
Karstens”
You really do like Phil Hughes, huh?
Before people decide phil hughes is expendable in this trade they should read the following article from the hardball times earlier this year. It puts hughes career and potential in context.
He’s not just a great prospect he’s a phenomenal one. people are forgetting this because of the leg injuries he’s had.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/the-rise-of-philip-hughes/
Irabu’s son,
Sorry. I shouldn’t have said that was dumb. I went back and re-read your post only to see that’s what you suggested. Apologies.
Yeah, people said the same thing about Tim Hudson and Mark Mulder. How did that go. AND ZITO OUTPITCHED SANTANA IN THE PLAYOFFS. Please support your conclusions with something other than “this is Johan Santanaâ€, Mr. Joel Sherman, er, I mean Global Warming.
Look Steve Phillips,
8 IP 2 Runs 1 BB 8 K’s by Santana. Oh man, what a pitiful performance.
If only those scrappy Twin bats could actually hit against Zito!
Why did you set me up with such a softball?
Dave, Hughes is younger and at a younger age destroyed the Easter League Buchholz was in as an older player this past year. He’s better.
I’d love to see the Yankees avoid making any trades. 2008 will not be 2007. These kids will improve in the next year and they’ve succeeded in bringing back everyone they needed to in terms of FAs and opt-outs.
It’s exciting to think about the next three years, about the trio of Hughes, Joba and IPK possibly all being very good-excellent. I’d love to see what happens in the OF when Matsui, Abreu and Damon pass the batons to Tabata, Gardner, and Jackson (Cabreara’s already here, but you need a fourth outfielder, no?)
I am not someone who buys into the George Steinbrenner BS that anything less than a championship is a failure. 2007 was very successful in terms of establishing what could be the long term sustainability of the team (being patient with young pitchers, investing in player development, holding on to high-ceiling prospects, etc.)
I don’t see the Yankees trading Phil Hughes, at least, not before the trade deadline.
If the Yankees did, I would have to believe it’s because they truly believe IPK is the better pitcher…and while he’s more polished…
Eh. I’d almost be happier if they didn’t trade for Santana.
“Heres a deal:
Kennedy
Matsui
Cabrera
Karstensâ€
You really do like Phil Hughes, huh?”
Yes. Look at his numbers, age, makeup and stuff.
I also hear what Minnesota wants so I am not going to propose 5 “B” level players. Thats 4 ML ready players for Minnesota, all of whom are replaceable in the Yanks system. (I really like IPK as well, but I can’t see Minny selling this deal w/ out one of the big 3).
From Rob Neyer’s chat yesterday:
Will we know if Petitte is coming back by the time the GMs get together next week? I think that tell whether or not this trade happens.
I am still on the fence.
I don’t want to give up Hughes.
Johnny Damon in centerfield scares me too. Rather keep the Melkman.
“Look Steve Phillips,
8 IP 2 Runs 1 BB 8 K’s by Santana. Oh man, what a pitiful performance.
If only those scrappy Twin bats could actually hit against Zito!
Why did you set me up with such a softball?”
A loss is a loss. Maybe it was because their ace got knocked around in the 1st inning and they pressed?
Pete stay on vacation.Remember there was rumors Santana and most of the locker room in Minnasota was pissed Luis Castillo was traded for a bag of fritos.And Santana was pissed in the second half because the Twins didn’t trade crap and said he woukd waive his no trade.Remember Santana is the greatest pitcher active in the second half of every season.Maybe he just wanted out.
Also Manny and Ortiz had mediocre years this year,are we saying they are done.Listen remember Andy Pettitte has a 4 ERa in the Post season meaning Pettitte isn’t dominate either.So just because Santana has one win might because unlike Pettitte Santana doesn’t have a big lineup in the playoffs,no wonder Pete didn’t give us Santana Era in the Post season just that he won 1 game.
And Mike Hampton was a joke even back then.Kevin Brown didn’t suck for us.Like Pavano he was just always injured and we were told he will win us or lose us 20 games.Barry Zito c’mon Pete just stay on vacation or make comparasions to a 40 year old Randy Johnson.Santana is not Pedro who before going to the Mets had a 10-10 5 Era against the Yankees and Beckett who is like 2-6 with a high 4ERa.Be smart Pete.
SavePhilHughes-
Haha. Sorry no disrespect meant…I admire your devotion…If I didn’t know any better I might even think that you ARE Phil Hughes. I totally agree with you on him though. The kids a stud. Any deal with Hughes is not a deal. Because of this I do not think that he is in any danger whatsoever of being traded. Someone may want to start a “Save IPK” or “Save The Melk-Man” campaign however.
CB:
No doubt Hughes has a high ceiling. But he’s all about potential. Besides, it’s not like the Yankees are giving up Hughes to get a utility infielder. To the degree it is possible to know these things with any certainty, the Yankees would be replacing great potential pitching with great proven pitching.
A lot of people are so thrown off by the fact that the Yankees have prospects again. That’s because the Yankees have mended their ways to a degree over the last two or three years, drafted more sensibly and held onto youth. But the prospects are accumulating and sometimes this is what prospects are used for.
The Yankees still want to win now and, barring injury, plague and flood, Santana is more likely to help achieve that goal in the next three to five years than Hughes would be. After that, Hughes may be the star Santana is now. But by then, Horne or any of the rest of the kids could be the next Hughes. It’s the circle of life.
Wang got knocked around in the first inning against the Indians. That must explain why we lost, the guys starting pressing. Big difference between Johan/Zito performance and Wang/Sabathia performance. They were both losses so that makes Johan & Wang equal? That’s the problem with generalizing.
No worries Mel. I like Rowan, I really do, especially after seeing him in person track down balls like a vulture in YS for a whole weekend when he was with the Sox. But at SOME point, the spending has to stop…
Rowan and Santana would cost not only about 4 prospects, but also $150m.
Tough decision.
I would still try to dangle Austin Jackson, IPK, Horne, and Tabata in their (Minnesota’s) faces.
Murpheydog, the reason wang through less sinkers had much to do with pitching 2/3rds of the season with a split and infected fingernail..the finger that creates the movement on the sinker.
(White Sox, that is)
Drop the Santana idea and go for Peavy. He could probably be had for Hughes and Melky. Pete does have a point, he seems to get beat by other teams aces more than not. The homerun totals rising isnt a good sign.
Peavy is younger and cheaper. Wont cost us the whole farm.
If that fails,go for Oswalt for even less.
Let’s Keep Phil
http://www.nysportsfan.org/2007/11/santana-debate-rages-yanks-must-not.html
By Rob Neyer’s logic then – the Yankees should be willing to trade Joba for Santana. Would you think that’s a good move?
Also by the logic the Red Sox should trade Buchholz for Santana yet they aren’t going to. Does Theo not have access to the BA top prospect list for the past 17 years?
It’s not a question of is Santana better than Hughes or more likely to stay healthy. It’s a question of relative value given Santana’s exorbitant contract demands, his not trade clause and the limited market of teams that can pay him and that he would agree to play for.
Look at it this way – Arod is a much better player than Miguel Cabrera (take into account defense and its not even close). Yet many teams would rather have Cabrera because he represents a better value for them.
Santana’s contract demands as a pitcher are perhaps more exporbitant/ bigger risk than ARod’s are. How many teams are going to be beating down the door to pay that and give up talent? This is no knock on Santana or his talent. He’s talent however does get diluted by his cost in money and talent.
So sad.
ESPN radio update said that the Yankees have said that Joba and Cano will not be included in any deal. I’m still convinced we could get the deal done without Hughes, but if the Steins start trying to outbid the other teams, and heaven forbid, themselves they just might get crazy and throw in Hughes. Now, that would be a mistake.
Wins and losses are the worst way one could possibly judge a pitcher.
As for those citing his ERA vs. the Indians or postseason, might I suggest learning the concept of “sample size”?
Kennedy, Cabrera, Jackson and maybe a lower-level prospect, otherwise pass.
Lots of discussion about Santana, Kazmir, Haren, Prior and others. I’m just wondering if anyone out there is looking at Bartolo Colon….haven’t heard a single rumor about him. Is it the general consensus out there that he has no gas left in the tank?
The Yankees are their own worst enemy. The “other guys” players are always soooooooo much better than their own. First of all, who else pays players over 20 million???? I think they should call the Twins bluff. Offer Kennedy, Horne and Austin Jackson but they have to take Giambi (with the yanks picking up 1/2 his salary. If they don’t budge, then the yanks can do what they always do….offer him the most $$$$ when he becomes a free agent. What people forget is, 99% of teams CAN’T give up their entire farm system AND 25 million a yr for 7yrs!!!!! HUGHES, JABA, MELKY, CANO, WANG = THE NOW AND THE NEXT GENERATION
GreenBeret7:
Agreed on the fingernail problem. That was a factor.
But there was also a lot of talk last year about the Yankees trying to making Wang a more complete pitcher, less predictable. There was a game against Boston last year where he almost didn’t throw his sinker at all, on purpose, as a strategic move to throw off the Sox.
So the nail played a part, but it was also strategic.
I’m with Pete. I don’t even want to see the Yanks trade as much as IPK, the Melkman and another kid for Santana. The key to this trade isn’t giving Minnesota a lot of good players; it’s giving Santana a lucrative, long-term contract.
The Twins are in weak bargaining position. If they don’t trade Santana this year, his value to them is small. Santana has the whip hand, because he can veto all trades and become a free agent in a year. They he can get whatever the market will bear.
We can also analyize this another way.
Team A trades for a pitcher whose own team doctor says has a shoulder that could blow out in 3-4 years. They give him a 3 year contract extension for over 30 million dollars, despite the fact he has been on the DL 7 times in his career. They trade a young SS who becomes an all star and a starting pitcher who throws a no hitter as a rookie.
In his first year with Team A, said starting pitcher gives up 40 home runs and has an ERA of almost 6 the second half of the year. Fans and media whine about the deal.
The second year, said pitcher leads the staff in wins, is a playoff monster and wins the World Series.
Would you make that trade again?
The player I am talking about is Josh Beckett.
The bottom line is, Johan Santana is an elite pitcher. I don’t care what kind of second half of last season he had, he is still an elite pitcher. Just as Beckett was when he had his second half struggles last year.
The Yankees don’t have an elite pitcher.
Is it risky? ALL transactions are risky.
However, if you want the ultimate reward (a World Series), you have to take some risks.
As “risks” go, Johan Santana is as good a risk as the Yankees can take for a pitcher.
Phil Hughes has had more injuries in his career than Johan Santana. You can’t make decisions based on what might happen injury-wise or you never pull the trigger on anything.
In addition, the price for Santana won’t be as high (in terms of players sent to Minnesota) as a lot of people think.
Mostly because few teams can afford him and Santana has a full no trade clause. That limits where the Twins send him.
As Bobcat astutely noted yesterday, the issue is simple. How much is ONE year of Johan Santana worth to the Yankees?
I say one year because, if they don’t trade for him, and he stays in Minnesota for the season, they will sign him as a free agent.
If the Yankees feel one season of Santana is worth a certain bounty, or anothe team is closing in on him, they will pay it. If not, they will pass.
murphydog,
your point is a very valid one. I don’t think this is a black or white situation. I just don’t think the market dynamics or the value proposition Santana represents is that compelling if you have to give up hughes.
To play devil’s advocate take a look at these two sets of projections for Santana over the next 5 years if you haven’t seen them. You may be surprised about what Santana’s level of expected performance is most likely to be.
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2007/11/know_your_reall.php
http://www.replacementlevel.com/index.php/RLYW/comments/forecasting_johan_santana_through_2014
8 IP 2 Runs 1 BB 8 K’s by Santana. Oh man, what a pitiful performance.
If only those scrappy Twin bats could actually hit against Zito!
Why did you set me up with such a softball?â€
A loss is a loss. Maybe it was because their ace got knocked around in the 1st inning and they pressed?/blockquote>
I guess that makes the Game 2 loss in the ALDS all Pettittes fault by that logic. nice.
Mike K,
I was using Wang’s ‘07 postseason as a counterpoint to someone’s saying that a win’s a win and that the Twins might have started pressing in a game where their starter gave up 2 ER over 8 innings.
And, yes, I know what a sample size is. Like everything else in life, some are bigger than others.
ray,
HaHa. Thanks for the comic relief. Thinking of Barolo and his clown wig in pinstripes made me laugh. Good one.
Glad to be of service Mel!
Talking about prospects. If I recall alot of people thought Brandan Clauson was going to be something and we shouldnt have traded for Boone. How did that turn out? Or Ricky Ledee for Justice. I would rather go with a proven major league ace than potential. Hughes had a freak accident and if im not mistaken he was injured 2 years ago as well. Who knows what his carreer will turn out.
Maybe Ian is the next Moose and all this time we were looking past him to see the other 2.
My prediction- Ian Cy Young candidate in 2010
Murpheydog, I remember the Boston game and his 10 strikeout game with probably a dozen sinkers, if that. That nail was as ugly as anything I’ve seen. It certainly didn’t get better over the season. I think Eiland will be working on his pitches come spring. Also, watch for Rivera’s changeup next year.
Sunny 615,
Last I checked there were no Midges flying around the metrodome that night.
Santana has been pitching in Minnesota people. But that doesn’t matter. No one has problems adjusting to NY. Right Rocket, Unit? OK well players from Minnesota can handle NY, right Knobby?
Like I’ve been saying lets persue Scott Kazmir, and it Melky, Kennedy, Horne and Miranda or Gardner doesn’t get it done let him go..we can chase Kazmir
People need to realize Hughes isn’t Claussen or Milton or any over hyped yankee kid arm. He is the real deal. Please read the harball times article linked above
When Arod opted out,the Yankees were standing at the threshold of a new,albeit,uncertain,furture.It could have been the start of a program determined and commited to an infusion of young homegrown kids,including some free agent picks as compensation for losing our type A players.While it is true we killed a few birds with this inking,a third baseman,a righty hitter with pop,and a#4hitter for the line-up,it remains an imprudent signing.
Nor would I have re-signed Mo,or Jorge at the prices paid.Yes,it is a well deserved reward for services rendered,but at those prices,it would have been more prudent,financely(sp)and player developement wise to let some other teams pay the freight.Not that they were going anywhere else,no matter what the pundits were telling us.Now with Arod back,and the tom toms beating out an outrageous and costly tune for Johan Santana,the ransom,our prized jewels from the suddenly fertile farm system,a step backwards.A starting pitcher may be needed if Andy does not re-enlist,preferably a lefty,but if none is available,go for Dan Haren or Blanton.Sign Santana next year if he does not extend his contract where ever he may wind up.We have crossed the Rubican again with the bucks shelled out for Arod and we are again on that slippery slope of aging has beens,never weres,and piein the sky free agents.
Are you kidding me?
Pete you were absolutely wrong about Arod, and your wrong about Johan too.
I agree, don’t trade hughes, chamberlain… but by all means put a pkg together. Keep in mind, everyone talks about ‘other teams’ ... Johan loves NY, so if our package is not as good as the next teams.. it’s ultimately Johan who decides where to go. So if any other team tops our package, it has absolutely no bearing!
If the Twins don’t like the package they don’t have to trade him and that works in our favor for next year.
On another note:
I posted about Ichiro and emailed you Pete, a long time ago. I believe this ball was dropped by the Yankees. Had they pursued him, he would be wearing pin stripes right now. That is a loss for sure.
The Yankees don’t need Jake Peavy. He’s not as good as Santana.
He already has shoulder issues from throwing too many sliders and is pitching in the best pitchers ballpark in baseball. Skewing his numbers quite a bit.
Also playing in a much weaker league.
If you want to cherrypick numbers, check out Peavy’s post-season numbers. They are horrific.
He is also righthanded. The Yankees have plenty of RH pitchers. They don’t have a lefty anywhere with the potential and talent of Santana.
Santana is not a power pitcher? Do some of you folks even watch games?
The guy throws 92-95 from the left side (which is bringing it), with a slider and the best changeup in the league.
He didn’t throw his slider as much last year because he was leaving it out over the plate and it was getting hit. So, he made adjustments.
The guy had ZERO run support, especially early in games. That means, you often pitch too fine and that ends up hurting you.
Just pulling out stats do not tell the whole story about anybody, especially Santana.
The guy is the best pitcher in baseball and some folks don’t want him because they THINK a prospect will be better.
The Yankees didn’t spend over 400 million dollars this off-season to rebuild or to have a team with guys they “think” can do the job. They want more assurance than that within the pitching staff.
I like the young players as much as the next guy. However, if you have a chance to get a 29 year old lefthander, who is the best pitcher in baseball, you do it.
The price? It will be whatever it takes within reason. They won’t overpay with players. When was the last trade Brian Cashman made in which he overspent with players? It doesn’t happen.
NL pitchers don’t transition well to the AL these days.
peavy is a bad idea. you want a right hander? get dan haren
Irabu’s Son (cool name as well….thanks for the compliment):
Do you really think our pitching situations is going to be that grave in 2007 that, without trading for Santana, we’re going to find ourselves in those dire straits? I’m simply not that pessimistic, nor do I think he’d single-handedly be the difference-maker.
Maybe I’m a strange guy. I’m actually willing to take steps back now to make bigger strides later. I don’t need, NY and all, to be in the World Series next year. I want to increase my chances of building another juggernaut later like we’ve been in the past. I think we stand a better chance at that by keeping our kids.
Scott Kazmir would be more difficult and potentially more costly in talent to get than Santana even though Santana is the much better pitcher.
Given Kazmir’s low salary and lack of a no trade nearly every single team in baseball could afford him and would try to get him.
Kazmir would lead to an enormous auction. And I also don’t see Tampa trading him inside the division or even trading him at all right now.
CB:
Maybe the better way to make the point is that it’s like playing cards. Sometimes you like the cards you have and sometimes you think you can do better.
The Yankees aren’t sending Joba anywhere because they can do the deal without sending him. Besides, they are in love with the guy’s speed gun ratings and control. He looks right now like a classic power pitcher.
The Sox aren’t looking to trade Buckholz because they feel they don’t have to. They don’t have the same need to upgrade the rotation that the Yankees do and with Ellsbury, Youkilis and Pedroia, they can field a WS team withouit the extra cost of Santana. They invested heavily in Beckett – - who is a proven stopper – - and in Dice-K, Buckholz is knocking on the door, they have Lester to count on and maybe Wakes if he doesn’t retire.
As for Santana’s value relative to Hughes you have to consider “WHEN” as much as “HOW HIGH.” Sure, Hughes may be one of the best pitchers in baseball in three or four years. Santana is there now and the Yankees want to win now. And while you and I might spend out money differently, the Yankees are unconcerned about overpaying for Santana. Bottom line is that it’s all just a matter of what the Steinbrenners want to do with their team and their money.
Would you rather judge a pitcher’s future chances of success by a small sample size of 34 innings with a 3.97 ERA, or would you rather judge him by the 1300+ incredible IP he’s thrown over the last 5 years? Any smart talent evaluator and GM knows that fans and media overdramatize playoff data. There just isn’t enough of a sample size to conclude anything meaningful.
But for those of you that want to do that, what’s your opinion of Wang as a pitcher? He has a 7.58 ERA in 19 postseason innings. But any Yankee fan knows that the guy is a pretty good pitcher. You are missing the point if you judge a pitcher by a handful of starts. That includes Pete’s cherrypicks of Santana vs the AL East in 2007, which includes just a 30-inning sample size. Pete also intentionally ignored Johan’s effective start and win against the Yankees.
pounder,
You’re so right on. But the Yankees can’t resist because Alex and Johan are shiny, pretty ornaments for the tree. But they had to do what they did for Mo and Jorge. They were the best FA and they’re true Yankees.
Ray the Yankees could pick him up as a bp pitcher for Alex, he could get Alex in a groove to hit homeruns.
Tampa Bay is not trading Scott Kazmir. They also aren’t trading him to the Yankees. They wanted Phil Hughes for Ty Wiggington last year. Who do you think they will want for Kazmir.
Tampa Bay has no interest in helping the Yankees. Especially since the Yankees dominate their own market. Which ticks them off to no end.
If you are worried about injuries, why would you want Kazmir? Small guy, can’t pitch more than 6 innings and has already missed starts with shoulder problems.
He is a walking ad for a significant injury.
Mel-
Great Christmas analog.
*analogy
Banking on 1 pitcher to be our salvation, @ 150 million doesn’t make much sense to me. I’d rather take our chances with the kids we have. Sell off Melky for some power and we have just as good a chance to win as we would if we waste more money on another superstar. In truth, how many more games is one elite pitcher going to get us ? Especially if the rest of the team falls as flat as it did this year.
It’s time to stand our ground and let fate determine the rest.
The Bronx Stop,
If the Yankees can get Santana without giving up Hughes, that’ll be the best Christmas present. Hopefully the Grinch (Pohlan) doesn’t steal it from us!
Fleas, it would have been rather difficult, not to mention against the rules to try enticing Suzuki with money to come to NY, since he was under contract to Seattle and signed a mid-season extention.
What makes you think the Yankees can trade Melky for “power”?
I don’t see a single team that would trade a power hitter for Melky.
That isn’t going to happen.
One reason he is even mentioned in the Santana deal is his ability to play more than on OF position and his ability to hit line drives. Something that is helpful in the Metrodome.
His asset happens to fit what the Twins are looking for. That said, without including more in a deal, the Yankees can’t acquire Santana.
In other words, Melky alone isn’t bringing back anything of value for the Yankees.
Name one? Josh Beckett. I don’t want to see Hughes go and I want to believe he’ll be as good as we all think one day, but fact is Santanna is THE BEST in the MLB.
We sucked in the playoffs because we had no ace. This solves that problem.
Andrew Marchand is reporting that the Mets are “In the Mix” for Santana because they are willing to send more players. That reminds me of Homer Simpson when he wanted to order pizza from an awful restaurant because he had a 2×1 coupon.
Liza – But the pizza there is horrible!
Homer – Yes…but its MORE!
murphydog,
I agree – trades are about properly weighing the probability of risks and rewards. Santana is the best pitcher in baseball hands down. There’s now way to knock him.
You have to discount Hughes potential much more than Santana’s performance.
Alternatively, you have to somewhat discount Santana’s performance because of his contract demands and no trade. There isn’t an enormous market of potential suitors.
One thing I do think however is that people aren’t taking into consideration Santana’s potential for declining a bit over the next five year.
By this I don’t mean he won’t be good five years from now. But there is a fixed probablity that Santana goes from being an elite pitcher to a very good one.
The Yankees don’t need a very good pitcher. They need an elite one.
Comparisons with the trades made for Pedro and Beckett are off a bit because both Pedro and Beckett were 25 when the trades were made.
There is a big difference between trading for a pitcher who is 25 vs. 29. A 25 year old pitcher will be moving into the full peak of his career. A 29 year old pitcher may be at the absolute peak of the performance he will attain.
I want the yankees to get santana. But they aren’t going to be getting the santana as he was from ages 25-27 when he pitched to a ridiculous 158 ERA+. I think he’ll be great over the next 5 years but not as good as he was between 25-28.
Lets say the Angels pull the trigger and land Santana. Why not use our prospects and go after Cabrera at first. It would probably take Melky and Cano. Possibly another b level prospect. We keep our big 3 and we strenghen our offense that much more.
So it is Quantity over quality? For the Mets but they want our best prospects. I say we make the offer of
Okay Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard, Kei Igawa, Kevin Reece, Matt Desalvo, Eric Duncan. I wonder if that can get it done.
OK so Johan struggled in 30+ innings against the non-yankee Al East teams in 2007.
But in 2006 his AL East ERA was 3.23 in 39 IP with 42 K’s.
The point is, there are wild fluctuations in data when you are basing it on a small number of innings.
S.o.S.
Cano is untouchable for Santana, so there’s no way they’d give him up for Cabrera. Think Miggy’s working out this offseason? He’s the hot ticket this winter.
Why? Why? Why? Why do people want to include Cano in trades?? What exactly does a second baseman have to do to secure his spot? If Cano continues his pace Melky will be giving the induction speech in Cooperstown for him.
Can’t believe I just read the phrase “True Yankees” in a conversation. Hope that was a joke.
amen
I assume hes untouchable because his offense isnt being replaced for a pitcher. But for a top notch hitter like Cabrera, I cant see them not biting.
Jennifer – If you throw in Rasner and Karstens it is a closed deal.
Pete,
Great thread…I would really like to see BC stick to his plan. I see a lot of stories that the Yankees will be lucky if just one of the big 3 pan out… Anyone who writes that, does not know about the late 60s Baltimore teams, The 80s Braves the 90s A’s These 3 kids all look for real and in my opinion will be better pitchers in 2 or 3 years than a 32 year old Johan Santana. besides there are a lot of aces on the trading block right now in Kasmir,Peavy,Harren,Bedard The Yankees should explore all avenues before selling the farm for one pitcher.
SJ44,
I am usually in complete agreement with you. However on this one I would say no-way. Beckett was 25 when the Redsox traded for him. They gave up some quality and lost a player who I feel is right now the best player in the National League. However, I still do that deal because they gave up only one stud not 3 or 4.
There is an excellent chance that by the end of next season Hughes is Beckett’s equal and 6 years younger. These 3 kids can become the cornerstone of another dynasty.
I think Santana is a fantastic pitcher…
But I am totally in agreement with Pete on this…
Pitching is way too fickle to dish out $100 million for one guy—Zito busted, Brown played out the rest of his contract in the hospital getting back surgery, and Hampton…well Hampton has a permanent residence in 3 or 4 different clinics by this point.
Not that Santana has shown an injury issues really—but unless the threat is that he’s going to the Red Sox for Lester and not Bucholz or Ellsbury… I say this isn’t a GREAT move for the Yanks. It’ll probably be a good one—but I’m wary. Melky plays a good CF – he may never turn his offensive numbers into big time level stuff, but he might?
Another thing people neglect to consider re: Santana.
If he goes to the Yankees, the additional run support probably enables him to pitch fewer innings.
When you are in a ton of 1-0, 2-1 games, as the Twins were with Santana, its much tougher to pitch in those situations.
As Al Leiter always says, its not the number of pitches you throw per game, its the stress of the pitches (given the game situations) you throw in a game.
More runs=fewer stressful starts for Santana, enabling him to be fresh for the post-season.
How exactly do you go about replacing both Cano and Melky in your proposal?
With Santana for Hughes and prospects, trading Melky for power, etc., we’re going to have the best PS3 MLB 2K7 team ever, while continuing to be the biggest, most expensive bunch of mercenaries to lose in the first round of the playoffs to better sum of its homegrown parts.
Name the Pitcher
who had an ERA of 4.07 in the second half of the season?
who gave up 101 hits in 95 innings pitched during that second half?
Who had a 5.45 ERA versus teams in the AL east last year?
Answer
Chien-Ming Wang
Mike R, maybe it’s because some people here don’t want to see it in Cano, I wouldn’t trade that kid for nothing I’m sorry a HOF 2B doesn’t come by that much in baseball, and one that can challenge the batting title year after year, jesus just thinking when his playe discipline gets to it’s peak do people realize he is the # 3 hitter in waiting followed by Alex Rodriguez for the later years…
How could I forget them! See we over load them with cheap players! All have played in the majors with the exception of Eric, so they are all ml ready prospects. Beat that Mets!!
Okay Chase Wright, Tyler Clippard, Kei Igawa, Kevin Reece, Matt Desalvo, Eric Duncan, Rasner and Karstens
OK, if the Yankees actually give up 4 or 5 players for Johan Santana they are FUC^ING CRAZY:
http://www.aarongleeman.com/2007_11_25_baseballblog_archive.html#1741797537094257016
Good article though, really breaks down the Yankees farm system and those with high, medium, and average upside. There are quite a few of them.
Don’t forget Anibal Sanchez. Just because he’s hurt doesn’t mean he’s not very good. Add the low A propspect they sent (I’m blanking on the name) and you have yourself a similar package.
Murphy’s Eleven,
I never said the Yankees shouldn’t rebuild the pen. It’s imperative. I just think that starting pitching is more important to any team.
Starters will usually give a team around 950 innings a year. The bullpen.. maybe half that.
So, by my estimation, the bullpen is roughly half as important as starting pitching.
Brandon – I read a couple of days ago that you are 1/2 latino. Where from? I am from PR.
Saying that putting Miguel Cabrera one first and removing Cano for offense isn’t going to amount to much more offense next year. maybe 10-15 RBIs, 5-10 homers. Same batting average. How about the lose of defense. You want to put a below average third baseman at first base, a position that he’s never played before, even in the minors, and remove the 2nd baseman who turns a double play better than any other? This is progress?
Here’s another set of stats to consider. These are for the people who keep saying things like “Hughes’ numbers in the minors were great but Santana has done that in the majors”.
If we’re going to include Santana’s ML numbers to compare the two of them, you have to go with their rookie years as a comparison. Even though that’s a small sample to scrutinize, how is it fair to Hughes to compare his numbers to a 8-season veteran who has had time to develop?
Here’s their respective stats from their rookie years:
Santana: 2-3,6.49 ERA,86 IP,102 H,64 R,11 HR,54 BB,64 K
Hughes: 5-3,4.46 ERA,72 IP, 64 H,39 R, 8 HR,29 BB,58 K
Based strictly on that, which pitcher would you want?
So if someone wants to say Hughes simply “might” become a great pithcer, you could certainly make the case that Santana was once a pitcher who had plenty to prove when he was at the same stage of his career as Hughes.
Look, I would love to have Santana pitching for the Yankees, but not at the cost of giving up Hughes. And before somebody has a conniption fit and reiterates for the 509th time that you have to give up something good to get something good – that is a given. Any of us who are realistic about trades know that already. I think that too many people are blinded by the prospect of getting Santana that they have forgotten why Phil was the crown jewel of our farm system to begin with. At this time last year, people were so adamant that Hughes not be traded for anyone, period. But now that a 2-time CY winner could possibly be had, it’s ok to trade him simply because you have to give up something to get something.
While there is no guarantee of Hughes having a career like Santana’s, the odds are still pretty good. And to be fair, there’s no guarantee that Santana will continue to dominate the way he did over a three-year span.
On that note, Santana was not just dominant from 2004-2006, but he was also incredibly consistent. His stats over those three seasons were so similar that it’s just sick. That’s why his numbers from 2007 bother me so much. He lost more than twice as many games as he did the previous year, and his W-L was almost equal at 15-13. His ERA jumped from 2.77 to 3.33. He gave up close to a dozen more HR’s than he did the previous year and more than in ANY year of his career, rookie years included. His walk totals increased while his K numbers decreased.
While that season may prove to have been an aberration, the only way we are going to know is by what he does over the next 2-3 years. Is that a smart risk to take with 6 yrs and $150M at stake? Not in my book.
Check out that article that was linked to from here yesterday regarding $100M pitchers (and Pete referred to in his post in this thread). I don’t want another Hampton or Kevin Brown liability on this team while Phil Hughes could be racking up impressive seasons for another team.
CB:
Agreed that Santana will eventually plateau and decline. How steep is anyone’s guess. But even moving ahead to his March birthday, in three years he’s only 32, in 5 years he’s 34. Barring injury, we may see his plateau with some adjustments to age, rather than his decline, for most of his time as a Yankee.
As a lefty however, even in decline the effect might be less noticeable IMO. If he goes from being one of the most dominant pitchers at 29 to being “only” one of the best lefties by age 34, I think I’d take that happily.
For me the focus is the next 3 to 5 years. For probably three more years Hughes will still be on the approach, not at the summit, of his ability. So, to me the Santana deal is purely about “win now.”
Pete:
I just read your post from yesterday just now. I would like to inform you, I have not posted on this blog since last night. Any postings by any other “Millers†today were not me. I hope it was not me who you banned or are planning to ban because of some other A-Hole taking my username.
Also, I do not post on any other forums. My loyalty lies with the Lohud and you Petey. Just wanted to clear that up.
Damon and Betimet. If not and want to go get someone, then Loretta for 1 year(till Hudson is a free agent)and either Camaron or Jones for nomore than 2 years.
Here’s where we see if the Yankees’ new-found commitment to building from within is real or not. Going after Santana is foolish in my book. We’d give up too much. I could live without Melky, but he alone isn’t enough to get Santana. Hughes is the real deal.
Its awfully tough to look at 3 young pitchers as the cornerstone for another dynasty.
The odds are stronger that one will be great, one will be injured, and one will be a non-factor.
When was the last time a team had 3 young pitchers as a cornerstone of a dynasty? Probably the Braves in the Early-90’s. That’s a long time ago.
Even the Yankees dynasty of the 90’s consisted of only one homegrown starter (Pettitte).
Too many variables with young pitchers these days. Its why its tough to be “too young” in your rotation.
What the Yankees have going for them is their pitching depth in the system.
For example, nobody talks about Dan McCutcheon. However, if the Yankees were a second division team, he would be in the rotation in 2008.
McCutcheon would be the #1 pitching prospect on at least half of the teams in baseball. That’s how good he is.
They also have Humberto Sanchez, who is throwing in Tampa, possibly ready by May. Sanchez was the Joba Chamberlain of the 2006 Futures Game. Another big-time arm.
My point is, if the Yankees include Hughes in a Santana deal, they do have the depth within the system to absorb it.
Testing
“There is an excellent chance that by the end of next season Hughes is Beckett’s equal and 6 years younger.”
Really?
Pete:
I just read your post just now. I would like to inform you, I have not posted on this blog since last night. Any postings by any other “Millers†today were not me. I hope it was not me who you banned or are planning to ban because of some other A-Hole taking my username.
Santana also makes a lot more sense if/if not Pettitte signs with the Yankees for $16 million…
If he decides to retire.. I think the push gets a little heavier from the Yanks.
Also, I do not post on ANY other forums. My loyalty lies with the Lohhud and you Petey. Just wanted to throw that out there.
the real risk I see is this, what are the chances Santana hits the market next year if we don’t trade for him now? If the changes are very good that he’ll be a Free Agent next year, why would we give Minn more than a SMALL handful of B prospects just for one year?
If the chances are not very good that he won’t be traded this year, then I can understand being more aggressive. But, as SJ said, given the money he’ll want and the limited number of bidders, the price should not be as high as people think and I for one would very much like that price NOT to include Hughes or Joba.
I’ve said it before, Hughes was the “Untouchable” prior to Joba arriving and many baseball people still say he has the bigger upsdie/brighter future of the two phenoms. That argument could probably swing both ways, but the bottom line is these are elite prospects that should be kept and home grown.
Think of this for a possible rotation: Santana, Hughes, Joba, Wang, and my 2 year old niece. we win 5 out of 5 games every week, an .800 winning percentage. Pretty good, and my niece is getting pretty strong.
Also, I do not post on any other blog. My loyalty lies with the Lohud and that big teddy bear of a man we call Pete Abraham.
Just wanted to clear that up.
SJ,
The point was not to bank on one guy to turn this team around. Melky is not an elite player. He has little power to be an outfielder on this team, he’s still AAAA in my book. Let’s utilize what we have on the farm rather than giving up what we have in pitching. Out of all the pitchers we have one or two will help us win. We’ve already tied up a lot of money in Arod, no matter how good he is or will be.
Yes, we need better pitching but at what cost ?
I still say let the kids have a crack at it.
Miller he knows, someone was impersonating me and SJ44 as well. Pete took care of it as soon as he was alerted.
Miller – Welcome back. I assume your are safe. Your posts are showing.
Chris-
“Think of this for a possible rotation: Santana, Hughes, Joba, Wang, and my 2 year old niece. we win 5 out of 5 games every week, an .800 winning percentage. Pretty good, and my niece is getting pretty strong.”
Maybe more like 4 out of every 5 games a week…Lets remember—Joba isn’t exactly proven yet!!!! lolol
Mike R:
They are showing on and off. Sometimes they are posted sometimes they are not.
I just want to clear up the fact that I dont post on any other blogs, my loyalty lies with the Lohud and Petey.
Murphydog,
I think this is where we both just disagree a bit. I don’t discount your points and they’re well laid out.
It’s the classic question of how much do you absolutely try to win right now?
Giving up Hughes to me represents an extreme version of trying to win right now.
I personally don’t think that trading Hughes for the increased probability of winning right now with Santana is worth it.
Even if the yankees get santana and give up hughes they aren’t a lock to win. Honestly, in a short playoff series against the the Sox i think the yankees would still be less likely to win because of the level of sheer dominance Beckett has shown in the playoffs.
Santana vs. Beckett in the playoffs- great match up but I still take Beckett. He’s shown a level of performance in the playoffs that Santana hasn’t. Not a knock on santana – just their body of work. To me however that’s a problem given the yankees level of expectations and the cost.
I have PR from my moms side, DR from my dad..born in NY spent most my first part of the years in D.R. , I’m like a mutt.. and grew up close to ballplayers like Furcal,Betemit and Hanley Ramirez etc., I knew about Pujols before he was in the minor leagues through my family’s side ..long story
Jennifer:
When was this guy impersonating everyone and what was he saying?
1.he is one of the top 5 hitters in baseball
2.he played 3rd base and the transition to first is easier to make.
3.turn double plays? You cant be serious. Tell me hes gold clove caliber but hes the best at turning 2. How many d.p.does he turn a game that another second baseman doesnt make?
Folks I like Cano, but if you told me I could have a Cabrera or Pujols for him, I pull the trigger.
And Pete I also want you to know that I do not post on any other blogs, My loyalty lies with the lohud and you, you big hunk od teddy bear.
Miller, is this really you ?
Awesome Brandon. I love DR. I do busines over there all the time.
Miller – The guy was just being an @$$ and insulting people mostly.
Fake Miller,
Did you mean to say “My loyalty lies with the lohud and you, you big hunk odd teddy bear.”?
We have our Post Seaon Pitcher his name is Pettitte if he doesn’t retire.You can’t have Chidn-Ming Wang as your Ace even in the playoffs.Unless you are rebuilding you can’t go into the season with just three rookies.Too many questions and injury prone pitchers.
VOII-
You point out a valid difference in trading for Beckett vs trading for Santana. Becekett was younger and due to the lack of service time the Sox only had to invest $30 million to lock him up for 4 years. But, money doesn’t really matter to the Yankees does it? (As an aside I like hopw everyone here gripes about it as if it is their own money).
But your comparison of Hughes to Beckett is hogwash. When the Sox traded for Beckett, he had already been dominating at the major league level for three years, including on the biggest stage of all in Game 7 of the world series. Hughes has flashed that in only a handful of innings. In addition, Beckett is a significant step above stuff-wise with a 95+ mph fastball in the late innings and a sharper curve.
I love me some Phil Hughes but there is a reason the Yanks have him below Joba on their protect list. 94 mph just isn’t the same as 98.
And one other reason that hasn’t been mentioned here for going all out on Santana. If we don’t, the Sox could get him for a package of Lester, Crisp and Lowrie. And then lock him up for 6 years+ with the money coming off the books on Schilling, Manny and Clement. How does the prospect of 5 years staring at a rotation of Santana-Beckett-Buchholz-DiceK look to all of you?
Looks like the Miller impersonator is back.
School must have extended recess today.
so what are some other options if we don’t go after santana?? i’ve read that teams like the mets are pursuing players like haren or dontrelle, what about going after players like that? i’m assuming the cost for them is far less than johan, just an idea
I don’t think the Yankees should trade one single position player prospect. That means I want to see an OF of Jackson, Melky and Tabata with Cano at 2b. Payroll has a limit and the youth movement needs to be kept in tact. We need energy and athleticism on the field, especially in the outfield.
Joba Chamberlain is the only trade chip that would allow the Yankees to keep all of their cant’-miss position players that balance the budget. I think Chamberlain has more CURRENT trade value than Hughes but Hughes is actually more valuable since he’s more proven as a starter. If the Yankees insiders view Joba as a reliever than they would be smart to stress a desire to keep him as a starter.
Joba can be sold high as a starter because he has a track record as a minor league starter and scouts saw a sneak peak of his stuff in the best case scenario with Joba pitching in short relief stints. But when it boils down to starting, Ian Kennedy had a lower ERA than Joba in the minors. Joba’s value as a starter is inflated because of his ML stint as a well-rested power reliever.
I think Joba Chamberlain + Brett Gardner is better than anything the other teams can offer. Furthermore, I think replacing a closer is cheaper than signing 2 OF’s plus 1 or 2 more pitchers, not to mention the 150 million to be payed to Johan Santana. If Joba’s seen as a closer, just sign K-Rod or groom Humberto Sanchez over the next 3 years of Mariano Rivera’s contract.
People who view Joba as a can’t-miss ace are