There are differing opinions between us armchair GMs here. Mine is that they’s still got plenty of holes, and we’ve got plenty of pegs to fill their holes with. If we’ve got pitchers that can make Hughes expendable, we’ve got pitchers that can make Kazmir expendable. Of course, this is pure armchair speculation on my part.

SJ 44 …… We obviously disagree on Hank Steinbrenner’s public persona, and his impact on the Yankees’ baseball decisions/talent evaluations. But I notice that you are parroting the main thrust of my earlier post (which you excoriated), to wit: the Yankees cannot afford to allow the Sox to pair Santana with Beckett for at least the next three years. I said a few hours ago that the Yankees’ decision-makers (whoever they are) are backed into a corner because of that fact. They MUST bundle whatever prospects are needed to close the deal.

The Sox aren’t bluffing, meddling, or raising the ante. They have given up Hanley Ramirez, they have paid a $51 million posting fee. They will pay a fair price for difference-makers. They realize that getting Santana is a kill shot, and they are going for it. I expect the Yankees to counter (there will be no Carlos Beltran frugality – not on Hank’s watch), but the price (in prospects) will almost certainly be very high.Quote
Brian(Red Sox Fan),Look The Red Sox Brass gave the Dice-K signing one big shot and they are not paying him 25 million dollars a year!Papi makes 12mill,Beckett 10 million,and Schill 8 million a year(all cheap signings) and now they are going to pay a 6 ERA Fenway Park pitcher,a not good against the Yankees playoff pitcher,and a not an overwhelming playoff pitcher 25 million dollars a year?!They realize Santana is a kill shot?Are you serious?They are stat geeks and sabremetrics geeks up in Boston and there is no way that they are laying out that kind of money for someone who will be a bust like that!He is a lefthanded pitcher who has a 6 ERA in Fenway and a spotty record against the Yanks in the playoffs,that is a kill shot to the Red Sox!Not with the success they have had.This is most definitely a bluff,because I want to see Theo and Lucchino give him some wacky Red Sox signing of 22.2 a year for 6 and see him say no.If they sign him,they will know what it is like to get Vazquez,Johnson and Contreras but only in reverse.

While anything is possible, anyone who has really followed the Red Sox closely knows that this Santana deal, due to the cost in prospects, dollars and years, is the very type of contract they typically avoid. If you consider that Santana will probably put them over them luxuary tax threshold, Santana could have a real cost of $30m+/yr (compared to Dice-K currently at $17m/yr…. and people in Boston are wondering if he’s worth it).

Beckett has a Career ERA+ (adjusted) of 116 (compared to Wang at 119). His career WHIP is 1.228. His 2005-2207 ERA+ numbers were 118, 95 and 145. (Santana was 155, 161 and 130 over the same 3 years). Maybe Beckett will continue his 2007 quality, maybe not. He is a very good pitcher, but there are many who are better. The Sox control him for 3 more years.

Gammons used to be a great reporter, but is in serious decline, especially since his health problem. And of course with the internet, more insider info (Gammo’s specialty) is more readily available. He is also a terrible Red Sox schill. Anything he’s says about Boston (and ergo the Yankees) should basically be ignored.

Considering the cost to replace prospects, and a 6-7 year contract, Santana will cost the Yankees considerably more then ARod. He is a great pitcher, but IMHO, this deal is too expensive as constructed, especially if Phil is included.

It’s amazing to read over 1000 comments on this blog and not see the term ‘WinShares’ mentioned once, and especially ‘Winshare per dollar’. It’s also OK to back opinions with Stats, and adjusted stats like VORP, ERA+, EQA and OPS+ are especially nice. Career numbers are nice, but the last 3 years and player age might be more telling.

For example, how many WinsShares will Santana produce compared to Hughes over the next 6 years? Whatever that difference is, the cost will be about $200-$250m.(Santana salary – Hughes salary plus replacement costs for Melky et al).

Well… lets see. For 2005, 2006 and 2007 (WS / 3 = Wins)
Santana. 23-25-18 = 22 wins
ARod…. 37-25-39 = 34 wins
FattyMC. 29-34-30 = 33 wins
Jeter… 24-33-26 = 28 wins
Cano…. 12-18-21 = 17 wins
Sabathia 13-14-24 = 17 wins
Haren… 15-15-19 = 16 wins
Beckett. 14-12-19 = 15 wins
Wang…. .7-17-16 = 13 wins
Moose… 10-15-06 = 10 wins

Will Hughes next 3 years (4 WS in 2007) be as good as Moose’s last 3? If so, he produces 10 wins to Santana’s 22, or 4 wins/yr.

So the annual equation is: Santana (4) >? Hughes(0), Melky(0), Tabata/Horne (??), AnyoneElse (??) + $20m.
That’s IF Hughes is ONLY as good as the last 3 years of Moose.

While we all revere pitching, it is about TEAM pitching. When you only play 32 games/yr, you only have so much impact. Would you trade ARod(34) for Santana(22) straight up? Rather have Santana(22) then Miggy Cabrera(33)? Is Santana(22) worth 2 Canos(17)?

Now, Winshares are not the perfect stat, but it does tell us sometime. And this is guesswork, but at least gives us some value for comparison of how many WINS a player might singlehandedly bring a team. Accordingly to WinShares, ARod singlehandedly won 11 games for us in 2007. Sound crazy? About right?

The Sox had the best pitcher of his generation, a guy named Pedro… although he never saw a WS with the Sox.

Pedro—: Age 23-28: ERA+ 193, whip 1.00+/-
Santana: Age 23-28: ERA+ 154, whip 1.05+/-

Pedro was the BEST. Santana is still GREAT and one of the best. I guess my point is it takes more then one great pitcher to make a great baseball team. And if we were ready to live with losing ARod, we will probably survive not getting Santana.

When considering what Santana might really cost ($25m + prospects value + luxury tax), one might examine what else we could buy with that money if we stayed pat with our inexpensive youth.

I would love to get Santana (who wouldn’t) but he is just one of many, many possible options over the upcoming years. The Yankees have been in ‘decline’ of late, especially considering their payroll, because for the last 7 years, they have made deals for ‘brand name’ players, and paid ‘peak dollars’ for guys based on past performance. Cashman has started to turn that around by passing on these guys (although missing Beltran was a mistake) and investing in the farm and signing high risk/high reward youth (Joba being the prime example) and using the $$ power to exploit the international market for both prospects and existing MLB talent.

Our 1996-2000 dynasty was build on the farm… Jeter, Mo, Po, Pettitte and Bernie and suppplimented with some solid players and some name brands. But the ‘core’ was developed inhouse. Between 1996 and 2004, they developed nobody. 2 years later they had Wang, Cano and Melky. Now we have Hughes, Joba and IPK. AJax, Sanchez and Horne are around the corner (as well as other pitching talent) and Miranda, Tabata and Montero bode well for 2009-2010 and beyond.

Emotionally I don’t like the Santana trade. Intellectually, I’m torn. We have no crystal ball, and I don’t think:
Santana > Highes, Melky, Tabata + $150m.
Santana > IPK, Melky, Horn, Tabata + $150m.

Yelling “SANTANA IS THE BEST PITCHER IN BASEBALL” is not really good criteria for a business transaction.

Many articles about this trade happen to come from Minn. newspapers. I wonder how valuable that info is? Biased? Manipulative? ESPN is decidedly Red Sox friendly (lead by Mr. Gammo himself). All info on this trade is leaked for specific purposes (as Bobcat has said over and over and over). There has been, and will be, tons of ‘junk’ written before this is over. It has about as much value as ‘board talk’ between professional poker players and the promises I made to Pamela Anderson.

My opinion (worth 2 cents) is:
1) The TWINS has almost nothing to say. Santana has a full NTC and calls the shots. He can decide NOT to extend his contract/renegotiate with anyone the TWINS have him talk to, essentially killing the deal. It is Santana’s decision, not the TWINS. What the TWINS say and want have ZERO value.

2) The Sox have no real interest in Santana (at the talked about prices). Everyone wants him. Everyone would take him cheap. But this will be one of the most costly deals in MLB history, and no one will take it lightly. This is just not the Sox style.

3) The Yankees are pitching rich on the farm but do NOT have a lot of position players. AJax and Tabata are their 2 best… especially considing we have an old OF and JD and Mats are gone after 2009. I hate to lose either player. Average to very good OFs are worth $10-$15m/yr these days. These 2 guys may be worth $100 – $150m over their first 6 years.

4) Minn does NOT want any expensive players. Crisp is NG. They don’t want to pay $5m/yr for a guy that could be as good in a year for $300,000/yr.

5) The Twins just got an impact LMB palyer in D. Young. They may get another for Nathan. I think they would like a stable of young, cheap pitchers. I would offer Melky and/or Gardner (if he has any value) and/or The AT (if HE has any value) and 4 pitching prospects.

6) Offering Hughes/IPK, Melky, Horne (who many think has a better upside then IPK) and Tabata is offering 4 of our top 9 youth. Would this be considered ‘gutting’ the farm?
Lose 3 or 4 of our TOP 10 and pay $25m/yr?

As a personal note, I find the level of arrogance and rudeness here to be disturbing. kasey, what can I say? Please… seek professional help.

Put your money where you mouth is time: (my answers)
1) Do you think ARod is more valuable then Santana? (way more)
2) Over the next 3 years, how many more WINS annually for the Yankees does Santana produce over Hughes? (4)
2a) from 2011-2013, how many more WINS annually for the Yankees does Santana produce over Hughes? (2)
3) Take you answer to #2/2A, and considering Melky, Tabata, $75m, how smart is it to trade Hughes.. or make the trade even with IPK? (No..and… maybe, only because we are rich)
4) If we don’t get Santana, how do you spend the (approx) $35m/yr he will cost us? (Too much for me to think about)

P.S. Spelling, grammar, literacy and lines between paragraphs are not a bad thing.

P.S.S. Pete… you’re doing a GREAT JOB!!!!
But registration should be considered an absolute MUST. You will NOT lose any quality traffic.
Also, an edit/review feature would be really helpful.

Lester as a #2 is pure hype

The Mets have a better chance to land A’s right-hander Dan Haren because the A’s appear to like the Mets’ young players better than the Twins do. Vaunted A’s GM Billy Beane is one who’s still known to covet Lastings Milledge and Mike Pelfrey despite their initial big-league struggles.

In trade talks between the Mets and A’s, Oakland named the young Mets players that interest them in a potential Haren deal, and it’s believed to be all the A-teamers: pitchers Pelfrey and Kevin Mulvey and outfielders Milledge, Carlos Gomez and Fernando Martinez.

There are a lot of factors involved in these talks, including the desire of ownership, so it’s possible that the Red Sox could finish the deal. It’s possible that the Steinbrenners will push for Santana. But I would bet that if you gave truth serum to either Boston general manager Theo Epstein or Yankees GM Brian Cashman, they would tell you that they secretly hope the other team winds up giving up the boatload of prospects and dollars for Santana—because doling out this kind of package in prospects and money is not something Epstein or Cashman believe in, philosophically.

I’d bet if you gave Cashman and Epstein truth serum, they would admit that they would prefer to package prospects and trade them to Oakland for Dan Haren, the 2007 AL All-Star starter who would be a much more cost-efficient acquisition because he is under contract for only $16.25 million (including an option for 2010) over the next three years.

But Epstein and Cashman have to stay at the Santana table, playing this game of pitching poker, because their rival is staying at the table.

If I’m Cashman, I hold firm and call the bluff…

... and then I hope that Bobcat continues to have good news for me this afternoon!