Yankees arrive at the Meetings
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- December
- 3
The Yankees contingent has arrived here in Music City. We’ll be (hopefully) meeting with Brian Cashman later on and obviously there are a lot of questions to ask.
UPDATE, 2:41 p.m.: Ah, just heard that Brian Cashman did not travel with everybody else. He wasn’t leaving New York until 1 p.m.
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One of the weird things about the internet is getting to know somebody well without ever having actually met them.
So I’m pleased to say that Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus came over and introduced himself today. We had spoken on the phone or e-mailed dozens of times but never met.
If you aren’t reading Will and the people at BP, you’re missing out. They are great baseball fans who have literally helped change the way people evaluate teams and players. Will’s “Under The Knife” column on injuries is a must-read in the industry.
Will will be blogging from here, so check it out.
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on Monday, December 3rd, 2007 at 2:15 pm by Peter Abraham.
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Peter Abraham
You can link the actual blog and not one of the blog posts…
The actual link is http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/
Good stuff.
Cash just arrived now?? Isn’t he a little late. Did Air Steinbrenner get lost..?! Cash’s answers to every question will be I cant answer that, no comment on that..he knows how to keep his mouth shut unlike Hank.
On the enthusiasm about Haren and Bedard
Haren has been a good pitcher who had one great season. No sure thing he’ll continue to be great.
Is Billy Beane so eager to trade him because he knows Haren is at the peak of his value.
Bedard has great stuff and has had inconsistent results up to last season. But he never stays healthy.
I’d be cautious about offering up the farm for either of them.
Just want to give everyone a heads up-I’ll be scouring the internet for the rest of the day-updating my blog with Yankees rumors often
http://pinstripespa.blogspot.com/2007/12/winter-meetings-day-1.html
I AM HAVING A SPLENDID TIME WITH TWINS FANS ON THIS FOLLOWING THREAD:
http://www.startribune.com/blogs/christensen/?p=432
Any of you Yankee fans ought to pop in and give your two cents.
I think that Beane, contrary to Smith, would prefer to receive several very good prospects that he like rather than a big name and a couple of throw ins. Something like Horne, Kennedy, Jackson, and TAbata might get his attention because he really needs to replenish his farm system. It is pretty thin.
BP rocks. Take a look at their ratings for Santana. BP’s numbers show Santana’s performance peaked in 2004 and he has been in decline (from a very high level) since then. BP projects Santana to continue to decline in the upcoming years. Santana is an excellent pitcher whos performance is in a steady decline. The Yankees read this stuff so they know it too. Buyer beware.
If they’re not opening the vault for Santana (in terms of prospects), then they’re not doing it for Haren/Bedard. Of course they lose leverage with Haren/Bedard because favorable existing contracts bring more players to the table.
We would pay Santana the same amount whether it’s in this trade or in free agency. That’s probably part of the reason why the Yankees are playing hardball.
Disclaimer: I do not support that trade. I’m not 100% sold on Haren.
Cash had been there for two days already… he just hasn’t found his room yet.
Murphydog,
Not true. It just took him two days to get out of Anna Benson’s room.
Maybe Cash has been staying in Smiths room romancing him for the last 2 days trying to get this deal done.
“romancing”?
Santana’s ERA+ in 2006 was 168!! In 2007 it was 130. Ok so his ERA+ in 2004 was a near super human 185. How is this man in “decline”?
His WHIP in 2004 was 0.92. In 2006 0.99. 2007 1.07. To say this is a “decline” is playing with numbers.
2007 was Santana’s worst year. Everyone loves Dan Haren. In 2007 Haren’s ERA+ was 137 and he had a WHIP of 1.21.
Think about that – Santana is in decline with a WHIP of 1.07 Dan Haren at his best overall year had a WHIP that was 1.21.
Well im happy to say that I have got the news at about 810 this morning that Andy will be coming back next year. I was wondering if you thought that now that we have atleast one left-hander in the rotation that we might be more interrested in D. Haren rather then Santana. Since he could cost us less. I myself feel like loosing cabrera’s spark aswell as Phil’s potential would hurt us. What do you think we would have to give up for Haren and what are the chances I get to see a leaping high-five over second base from Cano and Cabrera for years to come?
this is probably the most exciting time of the baseball “season” for me, thanks for the great coverage Pete. Hopefully this Santana drama comes to an end sooner rather than later.
JK
MLB on XM had a very interesting discussion this AM about how the AL Central really has figured out the Santana pitching motion and they know now when to sit on his FB. He was 0-5 vs the Tribe this year, if they are correct.
Getting Santana may not be the elixer people are projecting.
Haren may cost lest financially, but talent wise he will be just as expensive. Billy realizes this and will not take a sub-par deal.
hanks tampering will cost us a pick..
so, nothing to extreme..
but a dumb move by hank..
shut ya hole hank.. just shut it
Very true BP is awesome.
Pete-Any indication on what happens to Mussina if we have 6 starters going into the season? I love Moose but he’s not what he used to be. Both Kennedy and Joba are more valuable in the rotation than Mussina at this point.
Elijah Dukes may be headed to the Nationals for Cordero. The Rays are serious about winning this year. They are reallly going after their pitching – bull pen in particular.
What an outfield the Nats will have. Milledge in right and Dukes in center.
Outstanding citizenship in the nations capital.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2007/12/nationals-and-r.html
I believe the BAA for Haren in September was som ething like .343, and his stats were generally much worse in the second half. If they traded the package suggested by Mike R, they would be insane. And I would be very, very angry.
“hanks tampering will cost us a pick..”
is this true?
Jay: Everyone agrees Haren isn’t coming cheap. Those of us who advocate Haren believe Beane is more likely to take a larger package rather than a top heavy package. Twins seem to want top end (Hughes); Beane may take the next 3/4 guys below him. Just stockpiling very good prospects as opposed to insisting on the great prospect. (Basically, its thinking Minnesota wants 6+3+1 to get to a value of 10 while Beane may take 3+3+2+2 (if that makes sense))
Of course we gonna get tampering charges; the way the sox didnt get them last year for stealing jd drew
I think there’s a good chance that Hughes pitches better than Haren this coming year. At any rate, he will be close. Haren pitched as well as he possibly could, and Santana had his worst season in a long time, and they were still very close in value, with Santana striking out significantly more men, and allowing fewer baserunners per 9 IP.
there is only one guy we should trade Hughes for.
What an outfield the Nats will have. Milledge in right and Dukes in center.
Outstanding citizenship in the nations capital.
hide your women D.C.
mel:
Anna Benson? Geez Louise. Cash… we almost lost ya!
Mr Delaware (does that mean you are small?)
I realize this but would you rather give away more of your chips? What about the pen? Can he throw in some relief if we make it a bigger package? I don’t believe in emptying the farm for anyone. A 3-4 player deal including major league ready talent is fine for me for Santana. 5 players for just Haren even if they are below 4 star talent just doesnt work for me.
Maybe I’m just hoping for Santana period.
I wonder if Pettitte’s contract will have an option in it for ‘09, so he can pitch in the new stadium. That way the Yanks know he will either come back to pitch in the new stadium or retire and not go back to the Astros. Unless he is totally drained next season you would think he would to pitch in the new stadium after closing out this one.
Lies, damned lies and statistics.
Interesting to read in Will’s BP Blog: “The Yankees are going to have to offer more than what they have on the table. The team thought putting Phil Hughes on the table was enough, but the Twins aren’t selling Johan Santana for anything less than three major league-ready prospects.”
I live in Washington and I can tell you that the Nats GM was absolutely hammered for how he could have gotten something for Soriano, didn’t pull the trigger on a trade, and then lost him to FA. How is it that the Twins aren’t under similar pressure to get more than draft picks for Santana? All I hear from their media outlets is, “Fine, keep Santana for a year and get draft picks when he walks. That’s better than trading him for less than we think he’s worth.” Yes, he’s a premier pitcher, but the Twins have already decided not to pay him to stay beyond 2008, so don’t they need to get some value (and I’d say high value considering the players are Hughes and Cabrerra) in return. So what am I missing?
At the outset of the negotiations the Twins asked for PH and Melky. We offered IPK and Melky. We finally gave in and offered PH and Melky. Now they want more. The Twins are the American equivalent of the Marlins.
Jay (it means I’m sarcastic; I have little muscle mass):
Yes, I’d rather give away more chips than my best chip. With our payroll, we can always make up for a lost control pitcher (Kennedy) and most of the other prospects mentioned still have a ton of risk. Hughes is the only one I don’t believe we can just go out and replace; a massive upside, MLB ready starter. Basically, once he establishes himself (as soon as later this year), it takes 3 guys who could be him just to get him back. Irreplaceable, atleast from where I sit. (At a desk. In Delaware.)
CB-Thats a great trade for both teams! Man, Pena in LF, Dukes in CF and Milledge in RF is a great young OF especially in the NL! It will hurt losing Cordero but he’d eventually leave anyhow. Thats crazy. And the Rays are gonna have the best pen in the AL easily.
I heard that Opening day at Washington is “Elijah Duke’s Baby Momma Bobblehead Giveaway Day”. Those will be worth a pretty peny on eBay.
Refreshing news to hear that Elijah Dukes may be headed to D.C. to partner up with Milledge. No doubt they’ll both be mentored by non other than Dimitri Young. With any luck the Washington Gnats can secure a good steadying influence in Milton Bradley.
cumberberg, it’s b/c everyone wants the yanks to pay 100x more than anyone else for players, im convinced
how is ellsbury OR lester more appealing than hughes AND cabrera??? heck, i dont think ellsbury AND lester is as appealing!
i really really really want santana, and i would really HATE for the sox to get him(for the package they are offering especially)...but like hank said, this is becoming nonsensical…gotta draw a line in the sand eventually
Baseball prospectus helped me win my fantasy baseball league this year. Based on this and one magazine where I could find the players, I made my own rankings. I love them.