The great debate on CMW continues
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- December
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Here is an e-mail I just received. It was, of course, anonymous:
Wang doesn’t strike anyone out and depends on the ridiculous number of groundballs he’s able to create being turned into outs. This is not a reliable strategy that will produce consistent results over a career. It is working in the short term, but as Bill James as pointed out in the past, no pitcher with a K/9 below the league average has gone on to have a meaningful career. He’s in no way in the same class as someone like Beckett and is most definitely not an ace. Unless he develops a legit strikeout pitch there will always be the risk that the groundballs get through and he’ll have bad starts. He can’t be counted on in the playoffs.
So, the 417.1 innings Wang has pitched the last two seasons are a short-term mirage. His going 38-13 is a sign of not having a reliable strategy. But the 5.2 poor innings he had in the playoffs, those are a sign that he can’t be counted on.
I think I got my first Bill James report in 1988 and I just received his 2008 Handbook in the mail. His approach is endlessly fascinating. But when the statheads like my anonymous friend leave no room for humanity is where they lose me.
Wang has made only 80 starts in his career, most with two pitches. I’ve stood there and watched him work on other pitches in the bullpen. I’ve talked to him at length about it. He knows people sit on his sinker. Did you know that his slider was his best pitch in college but the Yankees had him dump it when he had shoulder issues? Now he’s healthy and he’s working on it again. He also is doing a lot of work on a changeup.
This guy shows up every five days, he pitches deep into games and he has handled almost every big-game assignment with aplomb. Why people insist on running him down remains a mystery to me.
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A few of my Taiwanese friends have told me that the blog is getting some play in Taiwan tonight. So hello to you guys and thanks for reading.
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on Wednesday, December 12th, 2007 at 8:17 pm by Peter Abraham.
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Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
I like Wang. I’ll admit I was really pissed right after the Yanks were eliminated because I was at the last game and watched the horror in person. With that being said I still think he’s a good pitcher. He just had 2 crappy games at the worst possible time to have 2 crappy games.
Hi everyone in Taiwan, for your friends in the USA.
Hello Taiwan and Welcome to da Bronx. We love Wang. He puts it all out there, does not have an ego that constantly needs mending and he wins ball games.
Pete – Thanks for the defense of CMW. For the past two years, whenever I see CMW’s name as the starting pitcher, I’m confident the Yankees will have a good game, lots of ground ball outs, the ever exciting (and I mean that) GIDP and maybe even some strikeouts. One of the most heartbreaking games ever was the Washington game in 2006 when I think it was Zimmerman hit that walk off in the ninth inning. One of the best moments was watching him smile and hug Guidry when he finally did get that complete game.
Sure statistics are general indications of generalities, but I’ve been watching the games. Chien Ming is a good pitcher and gives his team a chance to win every time he goes on the mound. It is clear he is a strong competitor and I have faith he will come back in 2008 even better. I was at game 4 of the Cleveland series and yes, he pitched poorly. I’m ready to attribute that to the screwy rest he had leading up to and during the post-season. He’s got more post-season wins in him; I know he has.
Um, did you even read the message, or did you read “Bill James” and just start writing?
“He’s in no way in the same class as someone like Beckett and is most definitely not an ace. Unless he develops a legit strikeout pitch there will always be the risk that the groundballs get through and he’ll have bad starts.”
His point is very clearly that Wang will never be at Beckett’s level, not that Wang is about to collapse and never be a good pitcher again.
ah-sk-roo Mr. Anonymous !
Hello Yankee fans in Taiwan! I had the pleasure of visiting your island from Oct. 3-17, so I got to watch all of the Yankees playoff games there. Sad. One of these days I’ll get around to posting all my Chien-ming Wang-related pictures onto flickr or somewhere, I took a bunch.
Beckett Palyoffs(sample size) = Dominated
Wang Playoffs(sample size) = Sucked
NY Media = We need an ace
This type of reactionary ******** is what made our fans boo the best player in game and almost run him out of town.
As well as almost give up the farm for Johan because the Mediots say we need an “ace” based on one playoff series.
Whatever the validity of James’ studies of low-K-rate pitchers, that was NOT the issue with Wang during the 2007 playoffs. He wasn’t merely unlucky with ground balls finding holes in the infield. He was simply dreadful.
http://www.faketeams.com/story...../102631/04
.
I LIKE this proposition: Hughes, Melky and IGAWA for Santana…..THAT would be sweet !!!…
Some people really don’t take the human aspect into consideration. Unfortunately there are too many people who are never going to “forgive” CMW for being the losing pitcher in the 2007 playoffs. It certainly was unfortunate for him to have 2 bad games in a row at a bad time, but it is no indication of the pitcher and person he is.
As far his his not being a strikeout pitcher, I started to enjoy watching his games for the “G’s” that would be put up for every groundout.
Dodgers non-tendered LHP Mark Hendrickson.
Probably a long shot but he might be worth the Yanks trying him as a lefty specialist if he’s willing to make the transition. I’m not sure how much interest he’ll get but if he’s willing to sign a minor league deal it’s worth exploring.
lefties have a .699 OPS against him over the last 3 seasons (just .657 this past season).
p.s. Wang is the man
Amazing how the same fans that are booing Wang over his 2 postseason games failures are the same ones who believe Hughes will be a bigger stud than Santana. so sad.
Wang’s been the best pitcher on the Yanks rotation for the past 2.5 years. Just wish Wang is more aggressive on the mound.
Bill James theories are pure garbage.
People still puzzle me about Chien Ming Wang.
More wins than anyone in baseball since 2006….check
consistant….check
great era for american league east (or anywhere for that matter)….check
it all comes down too “Hey if a pitcher doesn’t strike people out, he sucks…..this is just plain wrong.
This got “Breaking News” billing on ESPN.
Mitchell blames Players Union, and Owners. No real suprise here. Seems like it’s going to be the most benign document ever written. It’s already leaking? I wonder if Mitchell will actually try to take it to the UNion. Maybe this whole thing is really a hit on the Union. It must rub MLB the wrong way that the players’ union is SO strong. Probably the strongest union in America.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3152573
Forgive Wang for his 2007 playoff performance?? I still haven’t forgiven Rivera for his 1997 playoff performance. Whatever happened to that guy anyway?
Nick in SF is on fire tonight…
Well lets all hope that our anonymous email writer’s boy-toy Beckett is in that Mitchell report. then we’ll see what kind of ace he really is
Yeah, Wang rocks. I’ve always loved him. But in NY if you suck in the playoffs, you’re going to hear about it.
The debate about whether he’s and “ace” is fine. If he’s not an “ace” he’s the next best thing. I want him in my rotation, that’s all I know.
Pete,
Tell the whole story. Tell the people that you’ve got a whole lot of coin to be made if this guy does turn out to be an ace. Tell everyone how the book you wrote skews your perspective on Wang, because if he turns into a legit ace, a great story, you may have a chance at making some more money here, like you already have on the book in Taiwan. Could that have something to do with why you prop this guy and force him down your readers’ throats unlike any other player in a Yankee uniform? I’m sure you’ll condescendingly point out a variety of reasons this isn’t the case, but answer this yes or no – do you make money off of a book you wrote about CMW? Will you make more if he’s a Josh Beckett, or if he’s a forgettable #2.5 starter? Take your rose colors glasses off about a guy who has gotten lucky thus far, and be honest about your real interest in his success.
can this be right?
Angels non-tendered third baseman Dallas McPherson.
isnt he still a pretty good prospect?
I don’t care whether CMW is an “ace”. He isn’t Beckett. He isn’t Sabathia. So what. He is a young, strong, consistent starter who goes late into games and gives the Yankees a chance to win almost every start. It seems to me that, if the Yankees can go three years with Mo and Po at their career stages, they can go three with CMW at his.
Hello Taiwan
if what Pete says is right, and Wang mixes in a slider and changeup…. who is to say he can’t be an ace??
if beckett only had one pitch he wouldn’t be dominant. its his curve that throws hitters off balance. if Wang gets an offpseed pitch down, watch out.
Wang missed the first month of the season with a hamstring injury & also broke his nail off on his pitching finger in August I believe. Even though he tried to glue it back it was still painful and caused some of his pitches to sail high. So he started slowly & ended in playoffs a bit off, but that happens. If he had been healthy at start & got 3 more starts he could have won say 2 of 3 & perhaps another 1 or 2 where he pitched while recovering and had 22 or 23 wins. Then he probably wins the CY young award.
Also, Wang was down to basically 2 pitches at end of year, because the split finger pitch would rip his nail off. But he throws 94 MPH 4 seam fastball & a 92 MPH split finger pitch that looks like a fastball as well as a slider. Wang had a terrific change up in Japan, but hasn’t used it much here.
So how many pitchers have 38 wins in their first 2 full seasons?? Sounds like an ace to me!
Wang is an ace.
Pete, did you talk to CMW about his fingernail problem? Do you think they might come up with some way to reduce the chance of recurrence?
Wasn’t dallas mcperson a top prospect liek 4 years ago?
Why do you people attack Pete for things he posts on HIS BLOG. Grow up. if you dont like his opinion, GO SOMEWHERE ELSE. he has the right to speak his mind, and in this particular case, his argument is rather convincing. He does not skew the truth about any of the stats/past performance issues he brings up. again, this is HIS BLOG. he has every right to write WHATEVER HE WANTS. leave him alone you trolls
Tell Mel Stottlemyre or Tommy John that you can’t be an ace with a sinker as your lead pitch. The kid has done nothing but win. I would suggst that he was put in a difficult postion by Joe Torre. First, by being asked to start on the road, when everyone knew his record was better at the Stadium. Then, going on 3 days rest? C’mon. Pettitte should have started game one against Cleveland- but I digress.
Two games don’t ruin two great seasons and if he does pick up a slider and change, he’ll only get better.
Any self-declared “stathead” (and yes, I’d consider myself one) should also note that GB/FB ratios tend to be most stable from year-to-year for pitchers, even over K/9 and K/BB ratios. Chien-Ming Wang has had *extreme* GB/FB ratios these last two seasons, and I’ve read more than one glowing scouting report about Chien-Ming’s power sinking two-seamer (which he only learned in the minor league system, interestingly enough).
The point is, a strong GB/FB ratio can strongly offset low K/9 ratios, particularly if it’s accompanied by a particularly low BB/9 ratio (which Chien-Ming supplies). Granted, unless Chien-Ming *does* develop the ability to consistently strike people out, he will be at the mercy of luck more than most (a one-year spike in BABIP or a particularly atrocious infield defense behind him would be more damaging to him than a pitcher like Josh Beckett), but that doesn’t make him a bad pitcher, nor does it mean that Chien-Ming Wang will be unable to put together a string of successful seasons in the next few years.
It’s quite impressive that Chien-Ming has put together good seasons behind the not-so-hot defense of Derek Jeter at SS and (last year) Alex Rodriguez at 3B (though his defense was underrated last year due to all the flashy errors). Granted, he’s had one of the top defensive 2B in Robbie Cano to pick up the slack, and despite Jeter’s range limitations he turns a fine double play (which is doubly important for sinkerballers), but short of Chien-Ming failing to continue developing his slider and change and/or his two-seam sinker diminishing sharply (either by opposing hitters figuring it out, or if it loses some combination of velocity/movement), I see no reason why Chien-Ming cannot continue to enjoy the success of the last two seasons (where he was a top-15 starter in the AL, even if he didn’t turn out “dominating” top-5 performances day in and day out), and I speak as a “stathead”. Perhaps not an expert stathead, but I’d like to imagine one who’s versed enough to have some idea of what he’s talking about…
I think there are two points that the anonymous poster was trying to make the first is that Wang is a historical anomaly because there has never been a pitcher who has been able to pitch like he does and succeed. His sample size is large enough to see that this is not a fluke, he is a good pitcher and is able to get outs over long term periods. The second point is that Wang should not be trusted in the playoffs, a point unfortunately I agree with. Wang due to his high ball in play nature is more prone to big innings, fielding mistakes, etc. and when Wang gets in a jam he cannot get the free outs that a big strike out pitcher can and is forced to try and get a double play. Even if Wang went 34-0 with a 2 ERA over his next 225 innings if he was averaging 4.7K/9 I would not feel comfortable with him pitching a must win game because of the uncertain nature of a ball in play.
I don’t care if he’s an ace either. My last post shouldn’t serve to bash the guy, but I realize it might seem that way. I think he’s a good pitcher whose luck started to catch up to him at the end of the season thus far. I also think that anyone who thinks the past two seasons are going to be indicative of the rest of his career is kidding himself; he’ll be good not great, never dominant. But why perpetually throw up the record? Anyone who wouldn’t straight trade Wang for Beckett is not suited to discuss the game. So why does Pete insist on holding them up on the same pedestal. He’s just not as good as Beckett. This is coming from someone who despises the Sox. I love the Yanks, and I love Wang, but I just think Pete’s constant comparison of Wang and Prototype Ace is a stretch made by someone with an interest in the guy’s success. Maybe if he’d written a Josh Phelps book, that guy woulda gotten a fairer shake from Pete too. I don’t begrudge the statements, it’s your blog, Pete, but make clear to everyone reading what you could have riding on this theoretical “Ace”.
Thank You! That’s something that these Statheads don’t get. These arn’t robots you can’t try to explain everything with Stats. Players still go out and make pitches. Good tidbit on the slider information. There is so much that fans don’t get when it comes to stuff like that. People just assume he is garbage becase he had a bad playoffs. He’s not the sexy kind of pitcher people think of when they think “Ace”. The kid is solid!
I think there is a lot less controversy and disagreement about Wang then his defenders seem to think. The whole Ace/Not Ace disagreement seems to stem more from how people define an “ace” and not from the quality of Wang as a pitcher. I don’t see anyone saying that Wang isn’t a good pitcher, that he’s not one of the 28 best pitchers in baseball. I don’t see many claiming that he’s one of the top 3-5 pitchers in baseball either. He’s an extremely good pitcher. No one’s arguing about that.
Too much is being made of his playoff problems this year by his defenders. I think for the most part, those of us arguing that we need a more dominant number #1 have thought that for a long time. This is not about the Cleveland series. When is the last year that the Yankees won the World Series? I don’t think its merely bad luck. In the regular season, your number 1 starter really isn’t that much more important than any of the other 4 starters. Having a deep 5 man rotation is more important than having the best #1 in the regular season. We’ve had that and we’ve won a whole lot of regular season games. In the playoffs when the #1 can get 2 or 3 starts in a series, the #1 is very important. Let’s face it this team is built for regular season success more than for playoff success.
Saying Santana would really help in the playoffs is not a knock on Wang. Stop spinning it that way.
I heart the New York Yankees “ACE” Chien-Ming Wang and Taiwan!!!! So does The Bronx Stop (click me). See you and another 19 game season next year Wanger!!!!!
“Rico”
you do realize that Sabathia never really had a good year until this year right?
CMW is the most consistant pitcher in baseball. There I said it, and I meant it.
I give Wang a pass on the 2007 ALDS. His second start was on short rest so you have to toss that one. Not his fault Torre screwed up the rotation. Game 1 was ugly but you can’t throw him under the bus for it. If Joba did not turn into Lord of the Flies, no one would be complaining.
Bill – very well said
1. Greetings from America. Sorry your @ 6 but I had
2. Beckett sucked ass last year, but this year he is an ace. Funny how fast things can change, yet people are so fast to throw the towel on Wang.
3. Ace this, Ace that. Who cares!!! You dont need an ace to win in the playoffs. You just need to pitch well. El duque was never an ace, but in the playoffs he was lights out.
4. Sabathia was an ace to everyone, but he sucked in the playoffs. Just cause your an ace doesnt mean your a playoff stud. You cannot predict how people play in the playoffs. There are so many things that come into play, not just someones ability to pitch well in October.
5. the reason Wang failed in the playoffs this year is because he kept the ball up and gave up 5 hrs. He wasnt pitching his game. If he did, things would be very different.
6. What the hell does K rate have to do with being an Ace? Who ever made that bs up? Must be those baseball writers we so love to listen to…
7. Why cant wang ever reach becketts level? Beckett wasnt even at Wangs level last year.. Let’s not forget Becketts 5+ era in 2006.
Did I miss something? I did not read anything comparing Wang to Beckett by Pete. And while he may stand to make some money from his book sales, is it too difficult to believe that because Pete has gotten to know CMW as a person he may actually just want to see the guy do well just because? I guess I’m naive.
And I doubt everything CMW has done can be attributed to luck.
Man, I totally confess I am lacking in the knowledge that you guys are, as your resident english fan, but…
CMW has been brilliant from day one, and it would be stupid to insist otherwise. he may not be the strikeout ace we all crave, or the postseason stud, but his stats still bear up pretty good…
Leave Long Duck Wang alone…
the guy never claimed to be an ace nor does he seem to care about personal acclaim. He seems to love pitching for the Yankees and he is a team-oriented kind of guy (unlike Beckett and Schilling).
Let’s give him more time before casting final judgement on the guy. jeeze.
Long Duck Wang for Cy Young in 2008!!
For whatever reason, CMW had two of his worst games in his career in the ALDS. Like many fans, I was tremendously disappointed. BUT that does NOT mean that he is not a big game pitcher or a failure. Not based on two games. What, the win over Detroit in 2006 was the fluke, but not those two?
He may not be glamorous, but he usually gets the job done. We should all be so dependable.
“I think he’s a good pitcher whose luck started to catch up to him at the end of the season thus far.”
How did his luck catch up to him at the end of the year???
The whole reason for his failure in the playoffs is because he didnt pitch his game. It’s not like he even got ground balls. All his balls were up in the zone and were being tatooed for doubles and hrs! Wang gave up 9hrs during the regular season. He gave up 5 in the playoffs!!!! So lets not kid ourselves.. if wang pitched in the playoffs, the way he did in the regular season (keep balls down in the zone and induce groudn balls), no one would be on his case. The fact is, the Wang we saw in the playoffs isnt the wang who got us 19 wins. His luck didnt run out. he just pitched like shit. Enough with this ground ball pitchers who dont have high k/9 wont be successful BS. -> in reference to this statement:
(It is working in the short term, but as Bill James as pointed out in the past, no pitcher with a K/9 below the league average has gone on to have a meaningful career.)
I think it’s unfair to say that a team with a deep rotation isn’t built to win in the playoffs (not that the Yankees sport such a team). I’d be more inclined to gamble on a team with four solid, above-average starters than a team with one ace and three average to below-average starters, because while an ace can still pitch multiple games in a playoff series (two in a best-of-five, three in a best-of-seven), you still need to throw other pitchers out there for the other games.
And if you’re depending on one ace and he happens to have a poor postseason (Wang is a good example, even if you accept he isn’t an “ace”, or even Sabathia this past year), you’re in a lot of trouble if the rest of your rotation doesn’t match up well against another team’s.
There are many ways to field a playoff-caliber team and maximize its successes in the postseason. Having a top-five starter (or two, like Cleveland did) can be a luxury, but never a sure-fire way of winning in the playoffs. Luck plays a big part, and the Yankees have been victimized by bad luck as much as the next team these past few years, even with their pitching weaknesses. Tony Clark’s bouncer in the stands 2004? The Game 5 outfield collision 2005? Kenny Rodgers pitching like a possessed man 2006? Fausto Carmona being absolutely lights-out Game 2 2007?
I’m not saying the Yankees should have, or even should have been expected to, win the World Series any of the last four years. Last year I thought the Yankees were, on paper, the weakest of the four playoff teams (though the Angels, with all their injuries, proved to be a weaker team, in my estimation), even with the team’s success in the second-half after the rotation and bullpen stabilized and the line-up progressed to the mean. In the playoffs, however, especially over the last two or three years, I just don’t think there have been wide talent gulfs (or on-paper postseason effectiveness) between American League playoff teams, which means a bit of luck in either direction can drastically change the outcome of a series.
…that said, I wouldn’t complain if the Yankees acquired a top-five pitcher over the next few years, *especially* if it’s home-grown (why hello there Phil Hughes!). But it’s not the essential component to winning a World Series that everyone seems to imagine it to be.
Wang’s first year in AL East: 8-5 4.02 ERA (first full season 19-6 3.63 ERA)
Beckett’s first year in AL East (remember folks, by now he was a seasoned WS champion veteran): 16-11 5.01 ERA
Even beckett struggled mightily.
This speaks a lot about the composure a guy like Wang can bring to a team (in my opinion, this is an important aspect of being a successful pitcher, let alone an ace). In arguably the best offensive division in the league (as a result of just hte yanks and bosox), wang has proven to be consistent, something beckett has yet to show.
Right now, as the yankees rotation is concerned, he is THE ace (big distinction from AN ace) by default. if you were to put wang on the red sox, would be THE ace? of course not, at this point that is beckett.
Anyone who bashes Wang, and he is a Yankee fan should be ashamed. Without Wang that past two years, it’s pretty simple to realize we wouldn’t have even made the playoffs.
He is an ace, and theres nobody I’d rather have on the mound after a loss, period. He pitches deep into games, and can fool a hitter even when they know whats coming.
The guy is still young, if you don’t realize how talented Wang really is, you must just look for something to harp about.
Sources: Mitchell Report to name MVPs, All-Stars, won’t address amphetamines
I haven’t seen this here tonight so let me add something:
What I’ve seen re criticism of CMW comes from the fantasy baseball community. They play a different game than we are used to watching. Strikeouts drive success in those leagues. CMW doesn’t strikeout many therefore he is useless to them. I was listening to ESPN radio this past year and heard their fantasy baseball host (don’t remember his name)said Wang was a “terrible” pitcher and would not win 19 games again in 2007. Well obviously he is an idiot but his prejudice was based mostly on CMW’s value as a fantasy pitcher.
Any comments on my theory?
I agree with what JT said:
6. What the hell does K rate have to do with being an Ace? Who ever made that bs up? Must be those baseball writers we so love to listen to
I love when people bring in all of these stats, to try to put down wangs accomplishments, yet will continue to call Jeter “Mr. Intangibles”. Guess what guys, wang is pretty good with the intangibles too!
Never has such a non-issue been so debated by Yankees fans. Granted, I don’t consider myself a “stat-head,” but Wang is an outstanding pitcher. I can see a pitcher get lucky and win 19 once if he’s not really that good. It has happened. But this guy won 19 twice.
The Yankees were going to lose that series to Cleveland whether they had Johan Santana or not last October. Why? Because Chien-Ming Wang would have pitched two games, and he’d have been lousy both times. Doesn’t make him a lousy pitcher, it just makes him a human being. Maybe his arm was tired. Maybe his finger was bothering him. A lot of things could have contributed to why he didn’t pitch well. It certainly wasn’t because he’s not a good pitcher.
Like I said, I don’t love statistics. I believe in what I see. But you’d think stat geeks would be going out of their way to DEFEND a pitcher with a sub-1.30 career WHIP whose K/9 ratio rose 50 percent from 2006 to 2007.
Mitchell leaks
I am watching a replay of the Yankees Indians ALDS Game 1. While watching Damon and Jeter bat, they both take the first pitch and each time it is a strike. I know this is Don Mattingly and Joe Torre’s teachings. I am wondering, will Girardi allow the Yankees to swing at the first pitch if it is a strike? Or will Kevin Long continue this…I think the most angry I got at Torre and the Yankees in 2007 is when Paul Byrd was pitching and for the first three innings was just lobbing first pitch fastballs down the middle for strikes and every Yankee stared at them like it was a gyroball. I just do not understand the purpose of starting out an at bat by taking a pitch for a strike. That leaves the batter with 2 strikes and 4 balls which is a definite advantage for the pitcher. Ahh. As I am typing it they are still watching pitches…..PLEASE JOE GIRARDI CHANGE THIS POLICY IN 2008. IT WORKED FOR MATTINGLY DURING HIS CAREER BUT ALEX RODRIGUEZ SHOULD NOT BE PLAYING THE STRATEGIES THAT DONNIE BASEBALL USED TO GET ON BASE.
HI I’m come from Taiwan, and this is my first time post here. Here is a little sound from me: I’m absolutely support CMWang. Even he can’t get many strikeouts. But he is doing the thing. pitch well as possible as he can.
Wang actually improved his K rate from 3.17 in 2006 to 4.7 last year. So I am not sure why people are so down on him like he’s never going to improve just based on two bad games. By the same logic, Beckett should be executed after 2006 because of his 5+ ERA if he’s a yankees…
Man oh man, usually I read and not post, but I can’t help it here. A few issues with what I’m reading:
1. Usually I do agree with Pete, but come on…don’t label people “stat-heads” like it’s an insult. Yes, everybody has the ability to skew data to fit their point of view, but using statistics isn’t wrong, evil or unnecessary. Remember, we all use stats to some extent (BA, HR, OBP, etc.) These are statistics people. Because some choose to look at more advanced statistics doesn’t make it wrong. Fans may obsess about small sample sizes, but these stats stay fairly constant (or are adjusted) throughout the history of baseball. That doesn’t make them a nerdy afterthought.
2. The argument that the statistics don’t take into account the “human factor” is just plain wrong. Over huge sample sizes, it is true that pitchers with low K/9 numbers tend not to have long successful careers. TEND TO. Can Wang be on the opposite side of that? Absolutely. And it won’t change the statistics at all, because there are a ton of groundball pitchers that backup that claim.
3. Please don’t spout out that Wang is not reliable in the playoffs. If that were the case, then only Andy Pettitte should start playoff games because nobody else can be trusted. Mr. Johan Santana gave up 6 ER in 7.2 innings against the Yanks in a playoff game. Obviously he can’t be trusted. But you all want him anyway. If you remember, Jeter hit into how many DP’s this October? Nobody threw him under a bus. “But he’s proven himself!” Yes, because he’s had a large sample size in the playoffs and has performed to his average. Give Wang 10 more playoff starts and he’ll be the same as always.
I am a big fan of Wang and I get infuriated when people are quick to dump on him.
What really gets me is that 3 other “big time” pitchers came up small in the post season and no one seems to want to discount their value either.
C.C. Sabathia was practically begging to have the Yankees put him out of his misery in Game 1 of the ALDS and the Yankees totally let him off the hook … and his two starts against Boston in the ALCS were horrible … both losses.
Jake Peavy started the one-game playoff against the Rockies and gave up 3 different leads if I am not mistaken.
John Lackey, as usual, was dreadful against the Red Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS
Plus, Wang won the only game in the 2006 ALDS against Detroit and Torre nearly blew that game by taking him out too early … he didnt seem to be too overcome by the magnitude of the moment in that game.
I really cant wait for his next chance to shine in a big spot … he is such a good pitcher and completely unabashed with the way he goes about his business … very professional and polished.
It will be nice to have his nay sayers and detractors eat some serious crow.
James’ analysis is statistical only. It doesn’t take into account outliers like Wang who pitch that way BY DESIGN with the sinker.
Mark McCray,
Jeter takes the first strike in most at bats. He is an excellent two strike hitter and can afford to be patient at the plate. I would not blame Torre for this even though Torre has been his manger for virtually his entire career. If you look up his stats re pitch per at bat I bet you will find he is among the highest. Not saying you are wrong about his strategy just that Torre and especially Mattingly aren’t the reason.
CMW is a historical statistical aberration because his sinker is not a junk pitch (Tommy John post surgery) but a power FB with movement. The problem is at times he elevates and at times he can’t keep in the zone low. Patient teams gave him a great deal of trouble last year, especially when they were able to get a runner on base where his problems increase. He is not the guy yet you want to have to be great against a tough team in a tough situation but he could be. The slider, and a solid chnage up would be enough. His mental make up is great and as Andy Pettit says he is a horse. I am happy he is a Yankee,and as hopeful to see him develop as IPK, Hughes, or Joba — but I would have traded him for Santana. I would have trade Hughes and IPK for Santana – not because I couldn’t love watching them become whatever they can be but because unless 2 of the four — CMW, IPK, JOBA, Hughes can match Andy Pettit in a short series the Yankees will not see the WS – before this offense is on the severe downslope and done. It is not just the player to player make-up of this team – it is the ability to match up against the Tigers an the Red Sox, and maybe again the Indians an the Angels in the short series. Maybe Melky matures, maybe Jeter, Damon, Matsui, Posada age verrrry slowly. Maybe the kids get three years of this offense. So it is not so much what Wang could be but what he must be.
Fallen Phoenix –
Definitely dug both of your posts, very well thought out and well articulated.
I would much rather have CMW on my team than Josh Beckett. Wang is
a) an “ace” in the most important sense: he is a great, great pitcher who gives his team a good (great) chance of winning every game in which he takes the mound
b) he will be more inexpensive than Beckett for a little while longer
c) he is classy
d) he RARELY gets fired up. i LOVE having a couple of pitchers who are just so even keeled (Wang, Hughes, Rivera) to ‘counteract’ a guy like Joba who is super passionate. it’s just a nice juxtaposition of emotions.
e) groundouts are sexy.
f) his groundballs help train cano in becoming the best 2b of all time.
People want that shiny new piece every year, and Wang just isn’t shiny enough for that section of the fanbase. Add to that the fact that he didn’t perform well last postseason, and he doesn’t have a prayer with some fans. It’s a shame because, unlike what Bart thinks, two consecutive 19 win seasons isn’t an aberration. It makes for a damn fine pitcher. I’m sorry he’s not Josh Beckett.
YanksRule -
the yanks CANNOT have a blanket policy that you dont swing at the first pitch. they need to adjust when necessary (like againt paul byrd). patience is great… but they need to adjust too.
Wang is a stud. He has no doubt been our best pitcher over the past 2 seasons and got us to the playoffs both years. This past season only I was only comfortable watching pettitte or wang on the hill and having the best shot at winning. He went into the 7th this year with a perfect game going and is only getting better. To not sign him long term is a travesty
looks likle Viz is close to signing w/ the Bucs….draft picks
**LIKE
Great post again Peter.
Great post seedse.
Most of the other posters here have said what I need to say in support of Wang.
Great ace Johan Santana’s playoff (”big time”) performance is no better than Wang’s, and would’ve cost us our entire farm.
Ace of the ace, f-bombing, fist-pumping Beckett was a mere mortal in 2006 who had Randy Johnson-level ERA and never saw playoff action while Wang won our only game. There’s no guarantee he’ll keep his immortality next year.
Enough said.
Speaking of Taiwan, I’m flying there for winter break in 4 days. Can’t wait.
It is remarkable how much people have made about Wang’s strikeout rate.
People who look at baseball “statistics” are constantly mixing up projections/ predictions with empirical data. And its amazing how they attempt to discount reality for the certainty of their predictions rules.
We’re constantly told that Wang’s low strikeout rate will spell doom for him. That eventually he’s going to get exposed as an inadequate pitcher. That’s the entire issue with the K/9 issue.
Yet the day of his unraveling hasn’t come – he’s been nothing but terrific with his low K/9 rate.
But what happens on the field matters less than what an abstract prediction dictates.
I’m always struck by how little baseball fans who profess to be “sabermetricians” actually know about statistics as a whole.
They read Bill James and somehow think this is sophisticated statistics.
It’s not. It’s amazing how much people make out of basic things like correlation.
Baseball sabermatricians have somehow convinced themselves that creating new metrics takes the places of reasoned analysis.
Then the lecture other people on how their view of baseball is incorrect or unsophisticated.
Have any names been leaked?
It’s amazing how different the regular season is from the playoffs…
You can be the best in the regular season, but if you fail in the playoffs, you’re crucified.
It was A-Rod last year, Wang this year…
but why is no one crucifying Jeter? I can’t count how many dps he grounded into…
Hey CB. Will you email me, I need to ask you a question…markbgsu@hotmail.com
and I agree
Meat,
I doubt it was a “policy” unless the game situation dictated, i.e., down by three runs in the 7th or later. Joe Torre gave his veterans a lot of leeway, remember he was an MVP in the NL once, he knows when to let them go and when to pull it in.
Am I missing something here? I watched over 120 games for the each of past three seasons, and I haven’t noticed this as a problem. What makes some of you think this was an all the time thing?
If Wang comes out next year and has a balanced season of beating people, he’ll be an Ace. He can do it so long as nothing gets into his head.
I’ve been hearing Girardi may be on the list.
An out is an out whether it be VIA strikeout or induced groundball as evidenced by a C.C. Wang heavy sinker.
For all the bashing about his postseason failure, any deal involving him is an absolute mistake. His time will come to quiet the naysayers.
Fistpumpers like Beckett get to eat humble pie.
What if Girardi’s name is on the list?
Bill James this, Bill James that…
How does Bill James explain Wang winning 19 games two years in a row especially with that shortstop everybody says is so bad?
Well, Bill James may not be saying this but I will: Wang does give up a lot of ground balls but he avoids HRs and walks. Thus, the ground balls that do get through don’t make for big innings. What’s my proof? 19 wins, two years running, even with that laterally challenged shortstop.
So where would we be without Wang? Closer to last place than first I can tell you that!Sign this man up, he has not yet peaked, we are lucky to have him. oh yeah, and almost forgot, you wont see him on any list tomorrow.
YanksRule-
It has been a “policy” since Don Mattingly joined the staff as hitting coach. Mattingly was notorious for taking the first pitch his entire career. To say that he did not have a lot of influence in the hitting styles of the likes of Derek Jeter is crazy.
murphydog,
Well said.
No way Girardi got the managing job if they thought his name would be on the list.
Yanksrule-
If you don’t see it as a problem please just rewatch the ALDS game when Paul Byrd pitched. If it doesn’t make you sick to your stomach to watch him lob the ball down the middle for strikes for 3 consecutive innings I don’t know what will.
Mark McCray,
Matingly re-joined the team in 2004. So what did Jeter do for the first 8 full years of his career? The Yankees were renowned throughout the Dynasty years as being the most patient team in the majors. Bernie, O’Neill,Brosius, and yes Jeter were all patient hitters. Are you one of the Taiwan people and new to NY Yankee baseball?
The Tigers non-tendered Chad Durbin
CB-
Please don’t be so close-minded as to put things you don’t agree with in quotations. They are statistics, not “statistics” whether you choose to look at them or not. The “sabermetricians” with their “statistics” do an excellent job each year of predicting performance.
I don’t call you a “baseball fan” so please heed this and don’t insult something you do not have any interest in.
Per RotoWorld, the Angels have non-tendered Dallas McPherson.
Hello Pete and all dear Yankees fans,
Welcome to Taipei(Taiwan) and you’ll personally witness the great power of Yankess in this island, backing up Yankess with 23 million people at all times.
The performance of NY Yankess dominates the people here in every day life.
We love Yankess so please don’t disappoint us.
Mark McCray,
I don’t have a reason why Byrd was so effective. I was amazed that they couldn’t hit him as it looked to me that he was meat (sorry meat).
However, if this was Mattingly’s fault things should have changed when Kevin Long took over as hitting coach and Mattingly moved to bench coach, no?
we need to pick up McPherson so we can trade him in a package later
Peter,
I agree about Wang. But doesn’t the same reasoning apply to A-Rod? It’s like a double standard with you.
Jeter is not “crucified” because he has 4 rings folks. Just like if Andy, Posada, or M0 went out and stunk up the place in the playoffs next year he would get a “pass” as well. These guys have earned their pass.
Hey Steve! Welcome to the blog. I’m sure Wang (and all the Yankees) will make you guys proud next year.
Yanksrule57:
I don’t like pretend statheads. They use one stat and think they have the whole picture. Even Bill James isn’t that arrogant, although he’s pretty close.
Basic scientific method – - using stats as predictive tools is science – - says you need to be willing to test your hypothesis and not ignore new or contrary evidence.
Based on that low K/9 rate, Wang shouldn’t have the success he has. Thus, an objective analyst (not a Bill James acolyte) would welcome the statistical anomaly that Wang on the surface seems to be. An objective analyst would see that Wang doesn’t give up a lot of HRs or BBs and usually works very efficiently (low pitch count). That means he has pretty good control and keeps the ball down. In fact, one could argue, Wang is a “control pitcher” not a ground ball pitcher. The “control” label might better explain his success without ignoring all the evidence.
(sigh)and a new legend is born at MSG his name is Kevin Durant
EricVA,
I’m not sure why you’re taking offense at quotation marks. It’ only a blog. If you wanted to put baseball fans in quotes it wouldn’t matter to me.
I didn’t mean any offense.
Also, I’ve worked with statistics extensively.
It has nothing to do with being closed minded or about something that I “do not have any interest in.”
I agree that sabermetricians do a better job at predicting performance than ad hoc approaches.
But then when what’s predicted to happen disagrees with what does happen, in my experience, sabermetricians often put more value in what’s predicted than what happens.
That’s what happens with Wang over and over. But also in a lot of cases as a whole. The prediction is more important than reality.
So yes, I find that remarkable and commented on it.
Again, it’s a blog. That’s what its for.
YanksRule-
Haha. Actually. I am from Ohio. Kind of like Taiwan.
I have no problem with a dynasty team who is patient and can win baseball games with that strategy but I hate to say it– this team is not that dynasty anymore.
Over a long 162 game season, patience is most definitely a virtue. However, the Yankees of current have not been able to score very many runs with the lineup they have while employing that strategy in the playoffs. Now don’t get me wrong, I do not blame this on the Yankees not being able to score runs when it counts. But for some reason when a pitcher like Paul Byrd starts off with a 1-0 count instead of a 0-0 count it seems like a disadvantage to the batter. I mean, it was obviously a problem because after the third inning in that ALDS the Yankees changed strategies and began swinging at the first pitch very obviously. I am just wondering particularly in that situation why it took so long to realize what Byrd was doing…
Peter,
Is there a reason you posted an edited version of my original e-mail?
“Peter,
Your analysis of Wang is unbelievably flawed and I think it stems from your lack of understanding of the basic statistics that should be used for analyzing a pitcher. These are not ERA and wins. They’re K/9, BB/9, HR/9, and BABIP. Wang doesn’t strike anyone out and depends on the ridiculous number of groundballs he’s able to create being turned into outs. This is not a reliable strategy that will produce consistent results over a career. It is working in the short term, but as Bill James as pointed out in the past, no pitcher with a K/9 below the league average has gone on to have a meaningful career. I’m hoping Wang proves this wrong, but he’s in no way in the same class as someone like Beckett and is most definitely not an ace. Unless he develops a legit strikeout pitch there will always be the risk that the groundballs get through and he’ll have bad starts. He can’t be counted on in the playoffs.”
Peter, next time please don’t edit my e-mails if you intend to post them.
“These guys have earned their pass.”
No, those guys have earned 4 rings.
I think that Wang is great. Granted he did come down a couple notches after the playoffs for me but I still think he is our best pitcher and a damn good one, I’m just not comparing him to Josh Beckett anymore.
no they won 4 championships there are no passes when you play like a dog, this postseason and regular don’t even get me started w/ Jetes
YanksRule-
Mattingly officially joined the staff in 2004 but worked as a special hitting instructor for the previous seven Spring Trainings. That puts him at the scene for…the start of the Dynasty.
CB –
I completely agree with your point of view and yes, it is a blog and you can write what you wish. I guess I don’t like putting things in quotations if you don’t like the point of view. For example, the Washington Times (Conservative DC Newspaper) puts things like “gay marriage” and “global warming” in print to discount the credibility of such issues. I felt you were taking the same approach with “statistics.”
I must say though, I don’t think it’s necessarily sabermetricians who discount reality when their prediction doesn’t come through, it’s stuck-up, arrogant people who can’t admit they may be wrong. Yes, Bill James and Co. may do it a lot, but so do the sports writers and commentators who rail against any statistics that aren’t batting average.
How many articles have you read about the grittiness and heart of David Eckstein/Darrin Erstad? As an intelligent baseball/Yankees fan, would you EVER want either on your team?
Hello, everyone. I’m from Taipei, Taiwan.
Because of CMW, about 23 millions people on this small island become Yankees fans (that include my 80-year-old mom). I actually read this blog like five times a day and that keeps me updated with the newest info.
We love like CMW because he’s our guy and probably the only guy from Taiwan that “really” surface in the MLB. We’re proud of his play and the character he’d being revealing: modest and diligent.
Yes, he had a bad postseason performance. But I’m sure there’s nothing that cannot be fixed or properly corrected. Even a great star like A-Rod had an atrocious postseason play in 2006 but he still came back great in 2007.
this thread is breaking the all-time thread record for strawmen arguments.
The Wanger gets no respect.
I liken it to if a guy could have a .380 average and a .480 OBP but if he`s one of five guys on the team who doesn`t get a hit in 2 playoff games, critics will say he`s the big liability who should get DFA`d. And they justify it by saying after all he`s not a clutch hitter in the playoffs and he makes an out 52% of the time.
Likewise, Matsui gets no respect either. Probably from the same guys to. Giants just reached an agreemenet with Rowand so it looks like he`s staying. Deal with it, critics.
Critics will probably dump on him for a .295/26/120 year in `08. Same guys will probably dump on Joba as beig over rated if he finishes the season with a 3.20 ERA.
Pete`s right if Santana goes 21-6 once or Beckett goes 20-7 once and Wang goes 19-7 twice in a row, some people have the nerve to say S & B are the premier pitchers in the game for four or five years if not all time, while Wang utterly stinks in comparison.
Dim-witted critics will also say one player publicly humiliated a teammate just because he happened to have had a different answer/opinion for a question when he was asked it in a different context than the teammate was originally asked it.
Think. We`re pretty lucky to have Wang pitching here, and he`s a good guy.
can’t wait for the mitchell report tomrrow.
who do we think will be on it? any suprises?
Pete, please tell this person to check out Mel Stottlemyre’s career stats on BaseballReference.com. ESPECIALLY 1973, when Mel’s 16-16 record wasn’t his fault, considering his ERA+ of 120, and the fact that Mel COMPLETED half his starts that year.
hate to say it but. . .chang aint white
I haven’t seen really any posters run Wang down as the thread suggests. The heart of the matter may boil down to expectations, and differing opinions.
Every team in MLB has a #1 starter(they have to), yet few would argue there are barely 10 ‘aces’, if that, in all of baseball. At this point in Wang’s career, he is easily a top 20 SP, but I wouldn’t rank him in the top 10.
Doesn’t mean I don’t like him, and I don’t like his chances on the mound. It just means he has a ways to go in my mind to be deemed to be an ace— the guy everyone talks about during the game.
Mystery solved! B wrote the e-mail. It wasn’t anonymous
Yes, Jeter had a bad postseason. So does that mean now that he is not an “ace” anymore either. I know that sounds ridiculous since he is a position player, but I would not trade Jeter for ANYBODY in the mlb. He is not going to win the triple crown any year soon nor MVP for that matter. Even though he had a rough series, I still take him into a playoff battle ANY day. Wang will get there too, he just needs the opportunities that the Jeters and Posadas have had.
Mitchell Report WishList:
1. Curt Schilling 2. David Wright 3. Papelsuck
I am a Taiwanese American. I am wondering how many of you know where Taiwan is on the map. I am glad Wang is playing for the Yankees so it gives people an opportunity to hear about this little island country more often. Taiwan has
“GREAT FOOD” and great people. I hope American can visit the island more.
Wang does have strikeout capability. His 4-seamer has hit the mid 90’s. He’s not a softball pitcher. This just is the way he pitches…it’s far from a lack of “stuff”.
(This is my first post here..)
Wang has been fantastic for the Yanks!! No, he doesn’t strike many out but don’t you love it when he gets those double plays? I am NOT looking up stats BUT I do know he was just not at his best during the playoffs (injury?). How’d he do against the Tigers the year before?
Anyway – Beckett kinda SUCKED in 2006. Can’t stand his az. And for all the Beckett hooting – didn’t we beat him a couple times this year?
Give CMW a break people….jeez. I am looking forward to having him in pinstripes for years to come.
Way to go Pete!
I think Yankee fans will be crushed tomorrow.
On Mike and the Mad Dog today, Mike took a call from a source off mike that apparently revealed a few names. He came back on the air saying that tomorrow could be a tough day for New York fans. To me, that either means Piazza or any number of Yankees.
when i went to taiwan, i literally had to wake up at 7 am or stay up till 1 am to watch Wang pitch. or just catch the rerun of the game in the afternoon. They rerun yankees games nonstop in the espn channel.
Clay, What on earth do you have against David Wright to hope he is on the Mitchell report?
He may be on the Mets, but I would argue guys like Wright are what’s great about the game.
He is a guy I want to succeed. And if the yankees didn’t have A-rod,, a guy I’d want in pinstripes.
Hey “B’ !…don’t tell Peter what to do…if you don’t like it here….GO AWAY….OK, Icehole ?
I know where Taiwan is, learned about it in Global last year, last I recalled it was next to China. And I believe I saw the word TAIWAN on my American Flag. hhmm
Ditto yankee21.
Have that person look at Mel’s 1969 season also.
I have no problem with the use of statistics in the analysis of baseball or sabremetricians. I believe that most sabremetrics are valuable tools and insight from people like Bill James can be very valuable, but it really irks me when stat heads want to deal in absolutes. For example:
“He can’t be counted on in the playoffs.”
Any man of science who claims that his methods can predict the future with 100% accuracy is a liar. Period. Whether that person be a sabremetrician, economist, statistician or anything.
I understand the heartbreak of “balls in play” for Bill James et al, with due respect. I also know the advantages of GB outs. And GB double plays. For a time, Wang was a champ at this. I still don’t know if his troublesome fingernail was part of his problem. I read here that it was bothering him during the season. Mariano Rivera is a ground ball pitcher unlike both Papelbon and Joba. Not too many ground balls go over the fence.
EricVA,
I was only using the quotes thing from a habit of writing. I do not read the Washington Times and am not familiar with their syntax.
I also agree with the whole David Eckstein grittiness issue. Its nonsense.
However, consider this statement from the email that got this thread started:
“Wang doesn’t strike anyone out and depends on the ridiculous number of groundballs he’s able to create being turned into outs. This is not a reliable strategy that will produce consistent results over a career. It is working in the short term, but as Bill James as pointed out…
Unless he develops a legit strikeout pitch there will always be the risk that the groundballs get through and he’ll have bad starts. He can’t be counted on in the playoffs.”
I find this striking. Again, you can clearly see how the predicted performance is much more important than the empirical performance.
This happens over and over and over again.
The actually empirical body of work is undermined based on the predicted future performance.
Wang is criticized based on what he might do in the future.
That makes no sense. None at all.
That’s the exact opposite way most problems are considered where trade offs are made between the present and the future.
Discount rates are applied to decrease the value of future returns.
Sabermetricians do the opposite all the time – they apply a discount rate to present performance based on what the future predicted performance is.
I saw someone say that they think Paulie would be on the list…*shudder* Oh, I hope to god not…
though right now nothing would surprise me.
I hope no Yanks are on the list, but the ones that would absolutely, totally, definitively crush me would be Bernie, Mo and Jeter.
I hope Alex is clean, because I want his stats to be clean.
Cookiekaikai,
I know where Taiwan is also. It’s great that there are so many Yankee fans in Taiwan. Most of us love Wang and most of the haters are Red Sox fans. Keep up the support….
Cubs non-tendered Prior tonight, and while he’ll be out for at least a third of the season, he could potentially be that “ace” that some think we need, or even eat some innings in the rotation.
Ryan aint kidding…. WOW
Mark Prior is a free man.
Why does eveyone believe that with Santana on board we beat the Indians? He was 0-5 against them last year. Is that your definition of an ace, someone who doesn’t beat your chief rival even one time? Not saying the guy isn’t a great pitcher, but he is no Koufax. Nobody in baseball is anymore (at least since Pedro was in his prime).
Mark Prior:
“He’s likely to miss at least the first two or three months of 2008 as he continues his recovery from shoulder surgery. It’s possible he’ll join the Padres, who attempted to trade for him earlier this month, but it’s been reported that they’ve soured on him after getting a look at his medical records. Large-market teams like the Yankees, Red Sox and Mets could place bids.”
CB-
Again we are on the same page. I chose to ignore the e-mail Pete posted because it is a great example of somebody misinterpreting or misunderstanding statistics.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but I believe the current metrics being used take past performance into account. I’m specifically talking about PECOTA predictions.
To me, the fact that Wang is an outlyer for his career so far makes him even more fun and interesting to watch.
Ryan if he accepts a minor league deal I would bring him back home
There is always support for Wang.Just it’s hard to say he is a ace lets just go into the season with him as our #1 in the regular season and Post season.As you see he can’t do that…get LEGEND santana.
bsilva,
what was santanas ERA against the Indians last year?
just curious.
yankee21, I just dont like him. I would love the Yankees to sign Mark Prior for another arm.
Some team will be foolish and throw either money or years at Prior, but if you can get him for a Dotel-like deal with any type of option, you have to go for it even with his health being an uncertain.
Has Bill James ever heard of Vic Raschi and Eddie Lopat? Jim Kaat? Bob Lemon had about 1200 K’s in 3800 innings — I’ll take him over James any day. Warren Spahn had a low K ratio in many of his best years.
The game is played on the field by people, not on a Strat Board, Bill, and stuff, smarts, and guts can go a long way. I think Wang will be even more effective when he’s part of a rotation including fireballers like Hughes and Chamberlain and, by eating innings, he’s a huge help to his pen and the manager.
Mark Prior = I’ll take him if the Cubs take Bruney and Pavano.
But only if.
Mark Prior and “eat some innings” probably don’t belong in the same sentence.
get Prior on a “Ricky Williams contract” for 3yrs/3M with huge incentive clauses
nah minor league or no deal
Maybe we can put Scott Procter’s arm on Mark Prior?
Do the Yankees still own Procter’s arm, or was it FedExed to LA already?
I like the Ricky WIlliams deal. Maybe Prior could use some medical marijuana. You never know.
Uh, since when does José Molina get $117 million?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....eason=2007
I mean, I know Jose is good and all, but….daaaaaayyyyuuummm
4.39
Mark Prior is damaged goods, shoulder problems are the worst injuries to have for a pitcher.
He may be young but he is beat up. I don’t jump through hoops to sign him, but I would monitor the asking price, and if reasonable take a shot.
EricVA,
PECOTA is a much more detailed prediction model than nearly all others. It is based on past performance and multiple metrics as I understand it.
They do a great job at baseball prospectus. But I personally don’t know how much of their methodology they reveal. For instance, I don’t think they detail what kind of model they run.
Instead they talk a lot about the metrics they use in the model.
But even that approach is suspect – because they never detail the conceptual reasoning for using those variables in the model to begin with. The only motivation I’ve seen for this are some rudimentary correlations.
The other larger question I personally have with this is what is the big deal about predicting performance? The whole purpose of sports, the reason why they are fun, is because the competition doesn’t follow rigid laws.
The only reason you play the game to begin with is because the outcome is uncertain. If you could predict it then there’s no reason to play.
Predictions mean can help planning a team – say for a GM. They mean a lot in fantasy leagues.
But I personally don’t find it such a big deal what’s predicted. Many models have predicted that the yankees should win the world series. Oh well.
The whole point is to observe what transpires on the field. Not to predict what will happen in some completely abstract future.
Rebecca
It says $4M ??
I have been at the stadium when Wang has shut down people. This debate about “ace” or not always amuses me. So much penis-wagging, if you ask me.
There have been legendary junkballers who won many games, were feared and hated, and helped their teams to win. Does a sinkerballer deserve to be dismissed because he’s not a power pitcher? Is a muscle car the only car that can take you cross country? Get over it, little weenies. Wang is a winner and a gamer. Who cares whether or not he’s the “ace” or not? When he’s on, he’s a joy to watch, the games move quickly, and he wins.
As for the idiot who is obsessed with Peter pushing Wang in order to “sell his book,” what is the logic here? Is it that Peter’s posting about Wang, a guy who truly likes and seems to admire, is going to make Wang a better player, more famous, and thus sell more of his book? I am sorry, but you don’t know a thing about the baseball world, the publishing world, or the world of sports journalism. Posts like this are yet another reason that we ought to have a free registration system here so that the few flamers will be a little more responsible about their foolish statements.
MOST TEAMS WILL HAVE A VERY HARD TIME WINNING GAMES IN OCTOBER WITHOUT A STRIKEOUT ACE TYPE PITCHER…. LARRY BOWA WAS ON ESPN RADIO WITH M. KAY AFTER THE INDIANS SERIES AND SAID “WANG IS A TWO OR THREE AT BEST” GREAT GUY TO HAVE ON THE TEAM CUZ OF THE HIGH WIN TOTAL… BUT NOT AN ACE – NOT A GAME 1 STARTER… SORRY PETER
Mitchell Report:
I’m calling….
Bret Boone.
Tejada.
Farnsworth.
Maggy Ordoniez.
Sheffield.
Giambi.
Travis Hafner.
Justin Morneu.
Bonds.
Jeff Kent.
Pudge.
And Hank Steinbrenner’s mouth.
…
Okay, it TOTALLY said $117,400,000 when I clicked it.
You think I’d lie to you all?
Thanks Mike R.
definitely not great but 4.39 doesnt seem like it warrants 0-5. probably part bad luck, part good hitting by the Indians, and part Santana giving up more gophers last year than ever.
Rebecca…. I dunno about you
tterba,
sure buddy
I love the idea that wins are not a useful stat for analyzing a pitcher. How can people like this exist?
That’s nothing. He went 1-3 against the Tigers with a 3.65 ERA in 6 starts. It just goes to show the team he had behind him.
Meat: Oh, come on now.
Being delusional does not make me a liar
she’s not lieing
god ESPNESN sure hates us
Rebecca – looks like you’ve been vindicated. Is this ESPNESN’s way of trying to take a dig on the Yanks payroll? Man!
if this is a non bias investigation David Ortiz’s name better be on this list..lets just say people talk in D.R.
Just for interest sake, Wang had a 4.14 era against the red sox
Maybe when the team that wins the most games wins the world series then we will…wait a minute…never mind.
I think the fingernail problem isn’t a long-term problem, but the blister is…
Remember reading some reports about Wang in the past, Wang has blister problem back from high school era, so on DL for that in the minors…
According to Gator in the season, Wang’s blister problem let him felt is the wrost one he saw, probably because that had the fingernail problem at the same time… But if don’t have the fingernail thing, the blister itself, still a problem for him rest of his career..
Brandon – are you serious about Big Porki and the D.R. ?
where’d you hear that?
Peter’s been reading Bill James since 1988. Sure. Yep. I bet he was also at Woodstock, and saw Springsteen at The Stone Pony in the early 70’s. I’m sleeping with Angie Dickinson.
“Wang doesn’t strike anyone out and depends on the ridiculous number of groundballs he’s able to create being turned into outs. This is not a reliable strategy that will produce consistent results over a career. ”
I’ve watched virtually all of Wang’s starts over the past two seasons. Does any of the statheads’ analyses of Wang’s “ridiculous number of groundballs” take into account how many of them are poorly struck? Wang’s sinker with its violent downward movement produces an unusually high number of poorly hit grounders (many of them “comebackers”) making much easier fielding chances than those typically hit by batters.
But then you’d have to actually watch baseball games to realize that.
Check out Jamie Moyer during the years 1996-2003 to see how pitcher with a “K/9 below league average can have a meaningful career.
Junior – better than Janice Dickinson
ugh i’ve got an icky feeling Arod is on the Mitchell report :S
Adam-your list.
I’d leave off Hank’s mouth,, although it may be unwelcome by some, as far as I know, not against baseball rules.
NYT
LC – I hope not….
I nominate Derek Jeter as the NY’s Double Play Prince.
Derek Double Play Jeter.. Sounds catchy~
Not sure if GB7 is on, he would recognize the movie…. Anyone see “It Happens Every Spring”? One of the BEST baseball movies ever. When the television network aired it each March when I was a kid, there was hope in the world.
Hmmmmm….. How many days until pitchers/catchers?
Meat, I’m not an official source but I have alot of ties to Dominican Republic baseball, heck one part of my family lives in Dajabon and we’ve known alot of players like Hanley, Rafeal Furcal, Ortiz, Pujols, Pedro, Jose when I revisit I’ll bring back pics but the big talk there is alot of concern for Ortiz because some people know he did steroids I doubt he’ll be named but we’ll see…
Hello All Yankees Fan …I am from Taiwan
I am so thankful for reporter Peter’s support of our Taiwan Hero Chien Ming Wang …
Wang will make his best to pitch in NY …He represent some spirit of Taiwanese …
We Taiwanese love Wang and Baseball …Hope more and more Taiwanese players can join MLB …
Thanks for all fans who love Wang and Yankees …
2 months and a day
Brandon – very interesting… I’ll personally offer $100 cash and $250 of Carson’s Ribs to anyone who can provide information leading to a 50 game PED suspension for Ortiz
Wang was 3 Wins & 2 Losses against Boston in 5 starts. He lost the first game on April 29th after missing the 1st month of season due to a Hamstring injury & the last game on Sept 15th in a blowout.
Beckett, the Ace, was 2 Wins & 2 Losses against the Yankees in 4 starts. As a side note 3 of the 4 starts by Ace had 4 runs or more given up.
Wang only had 2 of his 5 starts have 4 runs or more given up.
Brandon, Mitchell would never name such an important Red Sux Ass figure in the report. Maybe a token minor league just to save face.
hey Tim Chen,
Wang is great and I wish more players had the class and respect that he does.
63 days 9 hours and 52 minutes until pitchers and catchers
http://www.draysbay.com/
“This guy shows up every five days”
Yep
“he pitches deep into games”
Most of the time
“and he has handled almost every big-game assignment with aplomb.”
Simply not true, and we are not just talking about playoffs here. The Beckett showdown late in the season at Fenway last year was a perfect example. The guy is a great regular season, inning eating HOME pitcher. He is not a shut down ace you rely on in big games or the playoffs.
And if he really has some mystery pitches you have seen in the pen, then that is one thing… maybe with those pitches he does become that true #1 ace, but he isn’t one now.
Ray, how dare you lay such blasphemous propaganda against Ace. People might start thinking this is a Yankee blog.
” I’ll bring back pics but the big talk there is alot of concern for Ortiz because some people know he did steroids I doubt he’ll be named but we’ll see…”
i don’t know if Ortiz did or did not do steroids, but i do know that he WON’T be named for obvious reasons.
to ~Adam:
“But in NY if you suck in the playoffs, you’re going to hear about it. ”
That’s why they love Arron Boone instead of A.Rod or Wanger or Mo. LoL…
In this case, We then understand that Boone should have an average 30M per year contract, just because he hit a walkoff home run and bring us to world series. Good for him.
So, I think the Rajah of Rehab might be the playoff hero of 2008 for the Yanks. We can put him on 60-DL all the regular season and then bring him to the mound everyday to win the ALDS 1,2,3 games to sweep the opponents and so on and so on.
Then he must can get another five years contract for 2 games totally. What a cool plan!!
Pete I like Wang but He did cost us 2 games in the playoffs with his baaaaad starts. His ~too much arm strength~ excuse is not cutting it, Wang needs to use the other pitches in His arsenal.
“i don’t know if Ortiz did or did not do steroids, but i do know that he WON’T be named for obvious reasons.”
he’ll never be implicated by Mitchell but if there are people in the D.R. that know for sure that Ortiz did do steroids…. speak up.
JT from NYC, I don’t know if any big Red Sox will be named I’m guessing the formal RS will be named and the attention is going to be on the NY players big time. I can say I was not lied to D.R. about Ortiz, I’m part Dominican so I’m not happy to hear stuff like that, to see him say IDK if I did ealry in the summer was BS to me, you should know WTF you stick in your body atleast Mota admitted it, but yeh I don’t want to harp on these type of things, I’m praying (Rebecca’s choice) Vladi isn’t on this list that would shock the crap out of me
Thanks for the update on pitchers/catchers. Eh…… evidently NO ONE has seen the movie “It Happens Every Spring”??? I must be old.
Why don’t yankees just non-tendered Wang, give his 40-man roster to Pavano and save everybody the trouble, the so called “CMW debate”. It’s going nowhere.
**former
I hope that the Yanks have an out from A Rod’s contract if his name comes up tomorrow.
sharp shooter -
it sounds like Wang is working on the extra pitches.
Wang has an entire country’s baseball hopes riding on him. that’s alot of pressure but it may also drive him to be as good as he can be.
ML,
I dont think they’ve signed him yet. I think it’s pretty obvious that they’re waiting to see if he’s on the report first.
CMW has my vote. Greetings, my Taiwanese Brothas and Sistas.
Like I said yesterday, no way Vlad juices, no way.
I think people are missing the big picture here…there are many reasons the Yanks made their early exit in the playoffs this year. Yes, Wang had a terrible series, but so did Jeter and most of the offense. There weren’t many positive things to take away from the series, aside the performances of a select few including Pettitte, Hughes and Cano. Wang rightfully deserves criticism for bombing the two games, but chances are if you’re lucky enough to play in the postseason every year eventually you’re gonna take your lumps. It happened to Jeter, it happened to Pettitte, it happened to Posada (who has a career .236 postseason batting average) and it happened to the great Mariano, ordained God of the Postseason. Wang is solid and he has pitched well in the postseason before. So it’s not like he’s incapable. Some of us with shorter memories seem to forget that. He’s young, he’s good and he’s likely to get better.
Buddy I hope your right because I have watched even some instructers giving the most honest looking kid shots to the abs and buttocks, kids as young as 14, you never know but I hope Vladi isn’t on it too.
The Yankees are just finishing details on ARod’s deal, a contract of that magnitude takes time, Mitchell’s list has nothing to do with it.
Petri Dish, anything to sell more books, right?
I still would like to know what Anaheim or w/e they call themselves were thinking when they nontendered Dallas McPherson
Hopefully the Yankees will not make another Pavano move and sign Prior
J. Alba expecting baby!
add Zaun or Wells to the list ?
bphill – if they give him 4yrs/40M… then yes.
IF A-Rod is in the Mitchell Report, I think he’d still get a contract from the Yankees unless it is proven that he juiced in the last year. The only thing that would be changed are the historic achievement milestone incentives.
They would only make sense to bring in big marketing revenue if the chase for the records is seen as clean.
As for AP reporting that the list will include All Stars and MVP’s, that is hardly breaking news. Giambi and Bonds cover that by themselves.
Wang debate continues here. And also mentions Pettitte and possible involement with Mitchell Report. Totally forgot about him in that regard!
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/200.....de-rumors/
Wang is not an ace, so what! He is always the Taiwan’s hero.The American doesn’t know the baseball environment of Taiwan. Wang need to work harder than The American to have a place in MLB. It’s not easy. I like his concentration when he was on the play. He will not show off. I think the characterization is very important for the players. The special characterization will lead you to continue your career longer.
-rotoworld-
Ortiz has been on steroids since birth. I’d be surprised if his name isn’t on the report.
“Anyone who wouldn’t straight trade Wang for Beckett is not suited to discuss the game.”
I would never trade Wang for Beckett. You have got to be KIDDING. I don’t want someone who pitches to a 5.00 ERA one year, then has a good year. Who knows what next year will bring.
Wang is a fantastic pitcher and in my opinion the ace of this staff. Nobody was questioning Wang before last season began. Now all of a sudden because he had a poor postseason he is not the ace.
Yankee fans are ridiculous and make me sick sometimes. Wang is the ace of this team and has a ridiculous amount of talent. With the slider, sinker, and change… he will be even better. Expect 22 wins next season. At least.
Snow falling and sad music
Nook Logan for sale Logan for sale
so… many… “that’s what she said” opportunities…… must resist…..
Funny how things go!! I remember the crazy stories about Whitey Ford not being an ace back in the early 60’s because his ERA was so high. Of course it was difficult to argue that he was better than Gibson, Koufax, Drysdale, etc who were deemed Aces. LOL! But Whitey broke Babe Ruth’s record for scoreless innings in World Series play. He also had a 25-7 year with 2.xx ERA. But maybe he wasn’t an ACE either. LOL! I only wish all our youngsters could be a 2nd tier ACE like Whitey.
I wonder if The Great Guru Of Baseball Stats And Knowledge (Bill James) is aware that there is some phoney in the HOF with only a 3.43 K/9?
>
??? that’s nuts. Haven’t you heard? Beckett afterall is the greatest postseason pitcher period — present, past, or future.
Ooops. Ask Bill The Wonder Dog if he’s ever heard of Cy Young?
>
DadInIowa, just read your question about “It Happens Every Spring”. Yep..Ray Milland . Have it on disc. I recommend two other great movies…”The Pride Of St. Louis” with Dan Dailey playing Dizzy Dean, and (The Statton Story” with James Stewart as Monty Stratton. Great movies.
For what it’s worth, pitchers with career K/9 below Wang’s 3.9 include Cy Young and Grover Cleveland Alexander.
OK, it was a different era. But there have been lots of great pitchers with K/9 below 5, including Red Ruffing, Carl Hubbell, Robin Roberts — even Chrisy Mathewson and Warren Spahn.
A few more modern examples are Tommy John, Dennis Martinez and Jim Kaat.
Would I rather have Santana as my ace? Yes.
Then again, Hughes and Kennedy had K/9 >7, and Joba’s was nearly 13 (all far too small a sample). But I think we have 5 guys who could be the playoff ace(s).
Wang comes up small when we need a big Wang.
Seth Everett was just on 1050 he said he doesn’t expect Alex’s name to be on the report, he wouldn’t be shocked if Lowell, Clemens or Piazza were on that list .. excuse me while I make sure that I drafted Lowell
Ken Clay, Yanks might not have seen the playoffs if it werent for Wang
Grace, I have to say it’s rather funny to hear someone worrying about Wang having blister issues in a topic comparing him to Beckett.
Dallas McPherson
Mark Prior
Mark Hendrickson
Nook Logan
Lets get going Cashman
Brandon,
Of all the Sox, I think I’d least like to see Lowell on the list. But if he’s truly guilty, then he deserves to be.
DAMMIT I DIDN’T PICK LOWELL !!!
james,
i def think Hendrickson would be worth bringing in as a lefty specialist to Spring Training. however, he may receive a major league offer and that prob isnt worth it for the yanks.
Brandon,
did you happen to see my first pick last night??
and that was before speaking to you about your D.R. rumors…
Boston Dave yup, and I’ve known this rumor for awhile probably 2 yrs. now
I’m not sure what aplomb means but anybody who uses it must know something.
Boston Dave no I meant minor league deals for all of them
james – i know…
i just think some of them might get big league offers. if not, then absolutely.
If A Rod is on the list, his contract should definitely be cut back. A big part of Borass’ pitch was that the historic HRs would have big PR value. All that is lost if he’s on the list.
Yanks would probably still sign him, but I would think they would save a ton of dough.
Wasn’t Jason Giambi an MVP before? That’s their way of saying, “See we got some big fish.”
Jason’s got the immunity idol. Smart kid.
These are the same clowns who anointed Josh Phelps the next Sultan of Swat. Man… the guy pitches 5.2 bad innings and his whole season goes out the window?? Give me a break. I’ll take Wang over some Wood or Prior any day of the week. Wang is exactly what you want in a starting pitcher: consistency, wins, and most importantly health.
so I’m bored who wants to do some Jacoby Ellsbury is so great jokes ?
I would guestimate in any 1 year, there are about 180 MLB pitchers over 30 teams. In 2006, Wang’s ERA was 25th(86%ile), in 2006 it was 17th(90%ile). You can also consider WHIP, although I consider that more an indicator of future performance. I could not find ERA+ numbers.
Please DON’T talk wins. It’s a nice number, but pitcher X will win more games on the Yankees then on the Devil Rays. Wins is NOT a way to compare Pitchers.
Wangs career ERA+ is 119. So is Peavy’s. Beckett and CC are at 116. Halliday at 128. Call him an Ace or not… he’s a pretty good pitcher.
“Maybe when the team that wins the most games wins the world series then we will…wait a minute…never mind. ”
Again, out of context and apples to oranges. I was talking about judging a pitcher and the earlier statement that wins were not useful in determining a pitcher’s value.
On the photography boards, statheads are called “measurbators” because they always use stats and numerical values to evaluate things, to mentally masturbate, while they miss the big picture of “what does the photo look like?” or “did it sell” or “do you like it?
Of course you can use all kinds of esoteric measurements to measure a pitcher’s worth, but I will take a pitcher who wins a lot of games – to keep it in common language – over a pitcher who doesn’t win that many games, but gets a lot of strikeouts. Just my choice, but I value “W’s” in the win column.
I was not talking about the value of wins relative to a team taking the world series, although there is some correlation there, as well.
What makes baseball interesting is that a hot team going into a series can beat a team that had a better record. That has nothing to do with the discussion of pitching, though, and is a disingenuous, misleading, and meaningless obfuscation.
Go enjoy a lollipop.
Dallas McPherson has been hurt for the last two years and has failed in all of his trials. He’s had more cups of coffee than Joe DiMaggio.
BTW! I know Ken Clay!! You are no Ken Clay!!
Actually he is a really nice guy who I believe had a problem he wasn’t able to handle alone & tried to without regard to the consequences.
Paul V, I wonder how the stat geeks would have measured Nolan Ryan’s 8-16 1987 season? Pretty pathetic. He lead the league in ERA and strikeouts. Seems like wins and losses played a huge part in him not winning the Cy Young that year. Oddly, as great as he was, he never did win one. He had 1 2nd place finish and his best MVP count was 14th. He was as good as there ever was. If the control had caught up 10 years earlier, you’re looking at 400 wins.
Good ‘Stat geeks’ seek to measure statistics that can quantitatively predict the future, usually by finding a historical record for a player’s value in the past. ‘Wins’ are such a team-dependent statistic, that to attribute the full win to one player on the team is utterly ridiculous. Obviously different in key respects, but similar to what an actuary or statistician might do for a living.
A simple way to put it is this: If I’m building a team for next year, do I want the 15-7 guy with a 5.25 ERA and 1.45 WHIP, or the 8-12 guy with a 3.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP (for the sake of argument, I’ll leave this at one year history) – would you say the 15-7 guy is ‘better’ than the 8-12 guy?
“I think Wang is an absolute stud. I think he is an ace.”
Pettitte said.
So was posted on the Star-Ledger.
http://www.nj.com/sports/ledge.....amp;coll=1
So maybe it’s about time to shut up and listen to a pitcher.
I guess Andy didn’t get paid for saying so.
“Check out Jamie Moyer during the years 1996-2003 to see how pitcher with a “K/9 below league average can have a meaningful career.”
His K/9 was league average during those seasons. It’s when it dropped after that when he stopped being as effective.
Wang is the ace. PERIOD!
I am skeptical about Wang’s long term career because low strikeout pitchers usually don’t last long. But every rule has an exception and Wang should be judged what he does on the mound. So far, except for 2 starts in October, it has been pretty good. He should be given the ball every 5th day in 2008.
The “Wang” bashers are your typical emotionmal types who feel the sky is falling after every little thing that happens in life.
Most people are not down on him. Just like everything in life “the squeeky wheel gets the oil” and a few crackpots make it think that the overwhelming majority dislike Wang. Not even close to being the truth.
It’s funny how a few nutjobs on the internet can get the media all in a tizzy and use that as a barometer for 300 million people.
Wang was definitely a huge contributing factor to get us into the postseason, and if you think otherwise, you’re wrong. Pitchers all over the league work to pitch ground balls, it’s not as easy as it looks and is -mostly- very effective. It was obviously extremely disappointing watching his postseason starts, and I probably wanted to punch him in the face about 100 times, but he wasn’t the only one not producing in the postseason, let’s not forget that. Wang may never be an “ace” but he’s still an asset to our team, and despite his postseason starts he is – for the most part – reliable and busts his arse for us. What more can you ask for? Hopefully his disappointing appearances will only make him work harder to keep that from happening in ‘08 – and I’m looking forward to watching him in pinstripes for another season. So, basically, STOP HATING!!!!
Peter,
Why did you alter the original email?
A true ACE strikes out players,Wang is good but an ACE he’s not.
This is not a stathead issue. Wang is a very good pitcher who should continue to enjoy the same success of the past two seasons. His low strikeout rate prevents him from posting a low 3.00 ERA, but there’s nothing wrong with a 3.75 ERA. If Jeter wasn’t a crappy fielder Wang would look even better.
To Bill James stike out devotees, here’s one of my favorite Wang outings, 5/12/06 Oakland v NYY: Winning pitcher Wang, score 2-0. 0 strike outs, 8 double plays, 20 ground outs, 2BB, no runs. 8 IP, total pitches, 85. No strike outs!
One great thing Wang has contributed for his country, for a lot of people finally get to know Taiwan this island country.
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