Baseball America ranks ‘em
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jan 09, 2008 
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Baseball America ranked the top 10 Yankees prospects.
Here’s what they had:
1. Joba Chamberlain, rhp
2. Austin Jackson, of
3. Jose Tabata, of
4. Ian Kennedy, rhp
5. Alan Horne, rhp
6. Jesus Montero, c
7. Jeff Marquez, rhp
8. Brett Gardner, of
9. Ross Ohlendorf, rhp
10. Andrew Brackman, rhp
Note: Phil Hughes had too many innings to be considered a prospect by BA’s rules.
Ranking prospects is a tricky business. Statistics tell you only so much because it’s so difficult to gauge the competition and ballpark factors. Certain leagues are heavy with pitchers, others with hitters. Hitting .300 in the Florida State League is pretty good. In the South Atlantic League not so much.
Baseball America’s rankings are solid because their writers talk to team executives and scouts. You need a mix of stats, scouting reports and the ability to project.
Even then, it’s still a roll of the dice. Everybody was excited about first-round pick C.J. Henry a few years ago. BA ranked him fourth in their rankings in 2006. He has yet to get out Class A ball. Traded to the Phillies as part of the Bobby Abreu trade, he was released and is back with the Yankees.
So enjoy following the prospects, but don’t fall in love. For every Derek Jeter, the Yankees had a two dozen kids who are coaching their old high school teams now.
#10 intrigues me the most, Brackman. He is going to be a stud. If he had been healthy last season, he would be in the top-4.
No Humberto Sanchez on that list, huh? Interesting. Any idea where he falls.
Cairo has signed on with the Mariners. Loved that guy!
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/200.....uel-cairo/
Go Miggy!
I’m hoping some of those guys make huge impacts on the big league team this year.
Good news for Cairo…he’s a good guy with a great attitude. I wish him all the success in the world.
ugh..
http://www.newsday.com/sports/.....4478.story
I don’t blame Hank here.. I wouldn’t go more than 5 years myself. I don’t know if I would tell anyone that though.
Not sure who thought the Sally League was a hitter’s league, but, it really isn’t. These are big ball parks down here and conditions can be rather brutal with the rains and winds. The hitters are usually about a year or two younger than the pitchers. People who are disregarding the talents of guys like Mitch Hillingoss and Seth Fortenberry are making a mistake. Right now, Hillingoss is a Wade Boggs type with outstanding speed and Fortenberry has a lot of O’Neill in him, both in talent and a little temper.
Not sure who thought the Sally League was a hitter’s league, but, it really isn’t. These are big ball parks down here and conditions can be rather brutal with the rains and winds. The hitters are usually about a year or two younger than the pitchers. People who are disregarding the talents of guys like Mitch Hillingoss and Seth Fortenberry are making a mistake. Right now, Hillingoss is a Wade Boggs type with outstanding speed and Fortenberry has a lot of O’Neill in him, both in talent and a little temper.
You really have to wonder why Johan did not make this deal happen. After all he is the power here. If he stepped up and said to to the Twins, “I want to go here, Get the deal done now” It seems to me that it would have been in his best interest for this to have happened quickly.. as well as the Twins best interests. Impulse buys usually command a much higher price.
I think it’s remarkable how many people know who these kids are. A few years ago the average fan couldn’t name more than 1 or 2 prospects, and was more interested in what free agents were available. I like it.
“You really have to wonder why Johan did not make this deal happen. After all he is the power here.”
Perhaps because he’s perfectly willing to go any number of places and isn’t going to screw his team out of a chance to make the best deal?
Jim, I live in Savannah, GA. I get to about 25-30 games a year when I’m in country and whenever Charleston is playing. I also get to about 25-30 games in Charleston, about 80 miles from here. I’ll make a few trips to Tampa and whenever Tampa is playing in Ft. Myers, Florida. Now that I’m retired, I’m going to live at the ballparks. You get to see some pretty good games very cheaply. The two kids`I mentioned plus Dunn are going to be good if they keep going and stay healthy. Really looking forward to seeing the new batch of kids like Suttle, Snyder and especially Sublett and Montero coming in this year.
Isn’t what Hank doing tampering? He really needs to keep his mouth shut.
I like it. All Johan really wants is to get paid. His agent is looking for 7 years/$140 million, so I could see the Yankees come back at 5/$125 million. Yankees hold the commitment to 5 years, and Johan makes $25 million per year, and can still get back out on the market before he’s 35 for one last contract.
makes sense to me.
if what Hank is doing is tampering, the Mets did the same thing earlier this offseason when I heard a report on ESPN radio, where Minaya said that the Mets would offer a 7 year deal to Johan, even though they wouldnt go above 5 for Zito.
Hank is great. Just letting Minn know where the bidding starts. Nothing wrong with that.
woo hoo I just got my Yankee tickets for Baltimore.
YIPPEEE
turn 2
bad negotiating, he asked for 7/140, you came back at 5/125 meaning you passed on 2 extra years for 7.5M each.
Hank needs to shut his mouth. I know SJ44 defends him and says “no harm done” but its only a matter of time. His comments haven’t helped either. Hank is a businessman and I don’t think there are many successful businessmen who handle their dealings this way. Its going to rub people the wrong way – prob already has.
Turntwo – you would rather give 5/125 than 7/140 ?? Why not get 2 more yrs at 7.5 per ? Contracts are insured if he gets hurt.
bd
im pretty sure a tampering charge would only bring a fine, so if hank wants to take that chance, its his money
“turn 2
bad negotiating, he asked for 7/140, you came back at 5/125 meaning you passed on 2 extra years for 7.5M each.”
If Andy Pettitte is getting 16 Mil this year, do you not think that when Santana is 34 he can earn more than that if he stays healthy?
If you don’t think he’ll be healthy in 5 years then what’s the point of the Yankees signing him?
I don’t see Santana signing for 5 years or leaving any money on the table.
He doesn’t need to. On the open market he’s going to get 7 years and it wouldn’t be that surprising if he got $154 to $175 million. The Mets alone would probably meet any of his contract demands. But Santana would have the Yankees, Mets, Sox and perhaps the Angels (among many others) bidding on him.
He’s not just going to “settle” for what the yankees are willing to give him or for that matter what the sox are willing to give him. If he doesn’t like the parameters he won’t sign an extension or won’t approve the deal.
He has all the leverage in this.
Jennifer –
Me, too!
We’re going 8/23 (sat. game). Seats are all the way out in right field, but that’s better than last time we went!
Insurance on contracts also cost a lot of money, AND to top it off, insurance on pitchers is a lot harder to get when they are longer term contracts.
“Why not get 2 more yrs at 7.5 per ? Contracts are insured if he gets hurt.”
it costs even MORE money to insure the deal.
Also, years are more of a problem than dollars for the Yanks. at 7/140, he’s got two years at 20 per at the end where the odds are starting to get pretty good that you don’t want him, at least not at that price. You can’t trade him because no one wants to eat that money, so now you’re stuck with him.
Spending more $$ per year for fewer years is sort of the ideal for a team with lots of money. You pay a premium to not have to deal with the player’s decline phase.
I got 4/19 and 4/20. Club level seats 50 a piece. Club level seats there are great!!
hey did you guys order holiday pack tickets? i’ve been waiting for mine to get here. when did yours arrive?
mike
We’re in club level, also. We decided on August, to go as a foursome when the college kid is home!
“He doesn’t need to. On the open market he’s going to get 7 years and it wouldn’t be that surprising if he got $154 to $175 million. The Mets alone would probably meet any of his contract demands. But Santana would have the Yankees, Mets, Sox and perhaps the Angels (among many others) bidding on him.
He’s not just going to “settle†for what the yankees are willing to give him or for that matter what the sox are willing to give him. If he doesn’t like the parameters he won’t sign an extension or won’t approve the deal.
He has all the leverage in this.”
What if he doesn’t accept the $125 mil 5 year extension and then he gets hurt or has a pitcher’s version of an Andruw Jones type of year, would he still have all the leverage then? If he gets offered 25 mil for 5 years I think he takes it.
Can’t insure pitchers contracts for longer than 5 years.
That’s why teams use 5 as the “magic” number.
Any pitchers contracts over 5 years, and the team takes the risk (financially) on the extra years.
Hank isn’t saying anything he hasn’t told the Twins or, by proxy, his agents.
He’s not exactly breaking news here.
CB – agreed 100%
Look at what Zito got. 7/140 is a bargain… maybe its risky but its easily a fair market value offer.
yeah, i’m not negotiating here, i’m just saying i could see 5/$125 as a likely outcome.
it’s like Vernon Wells last year… Jays offered him a huge extention, but at the time, were he on the FA market, he might have been able to squeeze an extra year or a couple more bucks out of someone…. but the $120 million, or whatever he signed for, is a ton of money to turn down.
SJ -
what is the advantage in Hank saying this? Maybe I am missing that.
Club level seats are best in August. If you get too hot you can go and cool off inside. I’ll probably need it for heat considering the April 19th game is 7pm.
Santana has already delayed hitting free agency by signing that last contract.
This is going to be his last chance to get a major deal. If he signs a 5 year deal he’ll be 35 when its finished. He’s not going to get another huge payday.
Younger players and much older players may be willing to sign for fewer years at a higher dollar average. But I don’t see Santana agreeing to that when he has all the leverage.
Santana’s last contract got him security for life. This opportunity is his chance to leverage all of his value for what its worth. He’s not going to just settle for a deal that not what he wants.
At his age its the total dollar value of the contract that matters much, much more than the trade off involved in signing for a more money per year at a higher average value.
i agree with whozat and raymagetic here. its too much guaranteed money for Santana to turn down or haggle with at that point.
After Zito’s performance last year in a pitchers park I wouldn’t call $18M a bargain & it may get worse with the Giants non existent offense.
There isn’t any advantage or disadvantage. He’s just answering a question posed to him.
When he took over, he said he wouldn’t lie. If he can’t say something, he will say it but, he won’t lie.
Seems to me, he’s holding up his end of the deal. He keeps the media and the fans informed by being quoted directly and isn’t (or doesn’t seem to be) lying to anybody.
We can’t have it both ways as fans. We don’t like the Howard Rubenstein driven statements and want to be kept in the loop to what’s going on.
Then, when Hank does exactly that, we rip him for it.
Nothing the guy is saying will be a roadblock in doing a deal.
The issue isn’t his mouth. Its whether or not the Yankees want to take on another huge contract and give up a couple of very valuable young players.
i have to disagree with anyone that would make the case the 5/125 is better than 7/140. 7.5M/year in 2008 dollars doesnt buy you a decent 8th inning pitcher now, and we’re talking 7.5M in 2013/14 dollars. would you pay 7.5 M for andy pettite now, hes about the age santana will be then.
I’m in agreement with Green Beret 7. IF Mitch Hilligoss, OF Seth Fortenberry, and LHP Michael Dunn are among prospects to keep a keen eye on. They’re likely to be watched closely by manager Luis Sojo at Single A Tampa.
36 days until pitchers and catchers report to Legends Field.
“This is going to be his last chance to get a major deal. If he signs a 5 year deal he’ll be 35 when its finished. He’s not going to get another huge payday.”
As I said earlier, if Andy Pettitte is getting 16 mil this year, then when Santana is 35 he can get a deal for more then 16 mil. Unless he’s hurt at the end of year 5. If he/you thinks he’ll get hurt then what’s the point of the Yankees signing a 7 year deal with him?
I don’t think anybody going to give him 7 years 140. Not even the Mets are that dumb, especially after what happened with Pedro.
“What if he doesn’t accept the $125 mil 5 year extension and then he gets hurt or has a pitcher’s version of an Andruw Jones type of year, would he still have all the leverage then? If he gets offered 25 mil for 5 years I think he takes it.”
Those are definitely possibilities. Its a matter of how much risk Santana is willing to absorb.
But that’s true of any player coming up for free agency.
Santna’s last contract made him $40 million. He deferred free agency a few years in signing that contract. He was probably willing to do that for the security it offered.
Now is his chance to cash in in a major way. I don’t see an athlete of that stature being worried that his performance will suddenly decline in his contract year. Injuries are always possible.
But Santana already turned down the Twins $20 million per year X 4 year deal. That tells you he’s willing to risk a guaranteed $80 million vs. the prospect of injury/ under performance.
I can’t imagine Santana doesn’t look at Zito’s deal and think to himself I’m ten times the pitcher Zito is.
Zito’s deal is going to be the absolute floor. Santana is going to want and command considerably more than that.
more than 16 mil.
CB, you dont think $125 million is cashing in “in a major way”?
and $125 million is certainly more significant than the Twins $80 million offer, especially considering its only giving one more year.
if i was brian cashman (if only….) and santana was a FA and asked for 7/$140M i wouldnt be able to get the pen into his hand fast enough
“i have to disagree with anyone that would make the case the 5/125 is better than 7/140. 7.5M/year in 2008 dollars doesnt buy you a decent 8th inning pitcher now, and we’re talking 7.5M in 2013/14 dollars. would you pay 7.5 M for andy pettite now, hes about the age santana will be then.”
I don’t know why you keep calling it 7.5 mil in 2013. It’d be 20 Mil in 2013.
If I’m Santana’s agent I know that 5 years 125mil > 7 years 140mil.
“i have to disagree with anyone that would make the case the 5/125 is better than 7/140. 7.5M/year in 2008 dollars doesnt buy you a decent 8th inning pitcher now, and we’re talking 7.5M in 2013/14 dollars.”
Except that’s not how it works…if it’s 7/140, it’ll be roughly 20 per. So, the deal will have 2/40 left on it. I’ll give andy 1/16 now because I know he’s healthy. Being willing to commit to a 2/40 contract five years ahead of time is MUCH riskier. We have NO idea what will happen between now and then.
Florida, if the right hitting coach gets a hold of Hilligoss, and teach him to pull the middle in pitches and elevate the ball, it may move him from a Boggs type hitter to a Mattingly type. He has a great gap type stroke, but, they are low line drives…He may only end up a Jeter type, but, nothing wrong there, either. Fortenbury has a great arm, plays exceptional defense in all three outfield slots, hits for power and runs the bases well…should be an annual 20 homer, 20 steal guy…he does strike out, though, so he has some holes. Watched Jackson in the first part of the season, and, he’s going to be special.
SJ44,
Ok, contracts can’t be insured over 5 years, but surely insurance premiums are paid yearly and both the contract and policy can vest for an extra year if Year 1 Santana complies with certain thresshold items (including a physical).
ray you completly missed the point. it was suggested that santana would ask for 7/140 and that the yankees would counter with 5/125 and several of us made the point that its much better for the yankees to take the 7/140 because of the 2 extra years at 15M total.
Hey ET90210,
If Brackman was healthy last year, he wouldn’t have lasted long enough for the Yankees to draft him.
Also, in that site you sent, there was a good piece on Hank continuing to ruin the Yanks chances at Santana:
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/200.....t-5-years/
I like Hank and I like when he says arrogant Yankee things, but I don’t know about him telling everybody what he’s thinking unless it’s pure bluff. In business, I’m generally of the keep quiet and never let the enemy know why you are making your decisions school.
Never thought I’d be saying it’s a relief to be having the same old Santana conversation!
Jennifer –
At least it’s a night game, so the direct sun shouldn’t be a problem. I just got an e-mail from my husband reminding me what a romantic way that will be to spend our anniversary. I told him what could be better – baseball, hotdogs, mom (me), and all we need is the applie pie! Besides, we’ll go to a nice dinner pre-game.
you can say its better for the yankees to go 7/140, but Hank just said in this article, he’s not going past 5… kind of makes the argument unnecessary, right?
we were just using 7/140 to come up with a yearly salary for 5 years that Santana might be amenable to by sacrificing the extra 2 years on the contract right now.
TurnTwo,
Don’t get me wrong – $125 million is a lot of money. But I think people tend to look at compensation based on what their peers receive and what the market may seem to yield.
IMO Santana is going to be the subject of an intense bidding war if he hits the market.
Think about it this way – when was the last time a pitcher of Santana’s stature hit the Free Agent Market?
I can’t think of one – neither Mussina when the yankees first signed him nor Zito comes even close.
In fact its not common that a pitcher of that stature even gets less than a year away from hitting the market.
IMO Santana will get more than $125 million on the open market – easily. I think on the open market he’d get $150-$175 million.
When is the last time the Yankees, Mets, and Red Sox were all chasing the same free agent? All of them will be in on the bidding for Santana. That’s an agent’s dream.
He’s going to want to sign the biggest pitcher contract in history. The Players Union wants him to hit the open market to create a new benchmark for pitchers salaries.
If he’s come this far to free agency he’s either going to only approve a trade for exactly the deal he wants or he’s going to hit the market. He’s not going to settle. He doesn’t need to leave money on the table.
If he signs for 5 years he’s 35 again on the market. He easily could be on the downside or easily hurt by then. There’s no reason for him to assume that risk when he could sign for a 6th or 7th year now and guarantee himself another $40-50 million. He won’t get than much as a 35 year old on the market and could get nothing if he gets hurt.
He has the leverage. He’s going to make the club signing him take the risk.
But why make public the 5 year stance??? Wait until the trade is made and then play hardball during the 72 hour negotiation window. I dont get it.
“ray you completly missed the point. it was suggested that santana would ask for 7/140 and that the yankees would counter with 5/125 and several of us made the point that its much better for the yankees to take the 7/140 because of the 2 extra years at 15M total.”
No I didn’t, I’m looking at in from the Yankees point of view. The Yankees don’t want to give Santana a 7 year deal. Since they are only going 5 years they have to pay him more money. It’s much safer from the Yankees perspective to only go 5 years on a pitcher no matter how good that pitcher is.
SJ -
If there is a chance that Hanks public comments will have any negative impact on the Yankees and even indirectly impact their ability to make deals, acquire players, etc then I would rather be in the dark. Just me.
It would be great to know whether Cashman really cares what Hank says or doesn’t say. My guess is no.
CB, the same exact things were being said when ARod opted out of his deal… all these big market teams could afford him, had a need for him, and could lock him up for when he was going to break all the records, so he could go into the HoF with that team’s cap.
and what happened? not a single team came to the plate with a deal really even close to what the Yankees were willing to give.
sure, you could argue that a bidding war would ensue, and he COULD get $150 million, but its highly unlikely.
i understand the idea of wanting to hold the contract to 5 years, but any smart buisness man would say, if im gonna save $5M per year for each of the 1st 5 years of the contract by signing him for an extra 2 years, it’s to my advantage.
the idea of holding it to a 5 year contract is based on the idea of paying close to the same rate for the entire lenght of the contract which means the actual comparison would be 5/$125 verses 7/$175M, but thats not the numbers that were presented in the comment i was responding to
i had club level seats when i went to baltimore as well. they were great. except for the hurricane.
a good friend of a friend just moved down to baltimore recently and is a big yankee fan, so a trip may be upcoming this year. cleveland will most likely happen again, as well.
CB – you are spot on
People can argue that 7/140 is too much but its a relative bargain to what santana would get if he hits F/A… Santana has the leverage and 7/140 is a very fair offer.
I need to find a nice place to eat. Last time I went to a ngiht game we ended up going to some dive. It was pretty gross.
Anyone know of places in Little Italy (Baltimore)?
“If he signs for 5 years he’s 35 again on the market. He easily could be on the downside or easily hurt by then. There’s no reason for him to assume that risk when he could sign for a 6th or 7th year now and guarantee himself another $40-50 million. He won’t get than much as a 35 year old on the market and could get nothing if he gets hurt.
He has the leverage. He’s going to make the club signing him take the risk.”
I highly doubt anyone is going to pay him 150-175 mil for seven years. Hal and Brian Cashman would both have to be not with the Yankees anymore. If Boston or the Mets want to pay 20+ mil a year for Santana for 7 years I think the Yankees will accept it and move on. Think about it, the Yankees were unwilling to give Carlos Beltran, an everyday player mind you the contract he wanted 2 years ago. I don’t think there’s anyway they’ll give Santana that type of money. If the Yankees and Twins work out a deal I just can’t see Santana turning down 25 mil a year for five years. The players union will still see it as a victory due to the AAV plus the total value of the contract which will still be the largest contract ever for a pitcher.
“People can argue that 7/140 is too much but its a relative bargain to what santana would get if he hits F/A… Santana has the leverage and 7/140 is a very fair offer.”
Do you not realize that 5/125 > 7/140?
raymagnetic: exactly… its also a victory for the Players Union, because they’ve just raised the AAV that much higher, which trickles down to other pitchers hitting the market next year.
TurnTwo – if he hits F/A and has an avg “Santana” year in 2008, I’ll bet you the house he gets 150M.
If the yanks want him 7/140 is a great deal. If they don’t that’s fine but don’t go cheap if they do want him. How much do you think they should offer Teixera? 3yrs/$18M???
the whole 5/$125M thing is folly because he is certainly going to be offered more by somebody.
TurnTwo,
The ARod situation is just a unique one. I mean in the end he wound up signing for $275 million with another $30 million in likely guarantees.
In the end ARod opted out and came pretty close to getting what he wanted. Also, shelling out $275 for a team is an entirely different stratosphere than $150. Yes ARod is less likely to get hurt as a position player but its much more money than 150 and he’s signed until he’s 42.
Just my opinion – but contracts in general tend to escalate. One becomes the standard for the next.
This is one of the reasons why Zito’s deal was a bad one. Right or wrong – that’s the standard.
Santana knows it and so does his agent. They also know Santana is an much better than Zito.
Say Santana is 20% better than Zito – at least. He’s going to get $150 million for 7 years. Just my opinion – but if I were him I’d be more than willing to take that risk.
Again – name the last pitcher to hit the market of Santana’s caliber. And name the last free agent the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox all actively bid against each other for? He’s a unique case if he hits the market.
Santana is going to get what he wants as long as he’s healthy. That’s a risk but the potential reward is immense.
How is $25 million annually not a fair offer? it destroys the plateau for what elite SP currently make.
and just look at what happened to Andruw Jones… he had a bad average, but still hit a ton of HRs and drove in a ton of runs, and played his above average CF, and took the deal with a higher AAV with the Dodgers than the more guaranteed $$ with another club like the Royals.
its not like this is w/o precedent.
ray – you are missing the point. Reread I miss bernies post. Then read it again. if you still don’t get it, give me your #… I’d love to make some money… I mean do business with you.
“ray – you are missing the point. Reread I miss bernies post. Then read it again. if you still don’t get it, give me your #… I’d love to make some money… I mean do business with you.”
Actually, I’m not missing the point at all. If you can make 25 mil for 5 years or 20 mil for 7 years which one would you take? I guarantee you that the extra 5 mil you make for 5 years is greater than the 15 mil you leave on the table. Do you not overstand that concept?
turn 2
$25M is a fair offer only if it is compatable to what others are offereing. its not a fair offer if the sox or mets offer $27M
also, once again i think this youth movement thing is going to people’s heads, the yankees dont offer fair market value, they raise the market. they just signed the biggest sports contract ever, paying Arod more than $5M/yr more than anyone else is making currently (i dont care if u call if promotion money or salary its still $30M). the Yankees dont lowball people, just ask arod, farnsworth, pettite, mussina, giambi, etc.
Ok ray – youre right. In fact they should offer 3yrs/115M. Less commitment, less overall.
ray your post is ambiguous as to whose side each offer favors. above you said 5/125 was better for santana, which is exactly the point i made at the beginning, that it better for the yankees to do 7/140 than 5/125.
So happy for Miguel Cairo!!
Glad to see him get signed up.
Justice has been served!!!
“its not a fair offer if the sox or mets offer $27M”
The Red Sox aren’t giving Santana 27mil a year. There’s no way in hell they’re doing it. I doubt the Mets would be willing to either. However if any of them are willing to offer Santana 27mil then more power to them.
“which is exactly the point i made at the beginning, that it better for the yankees to do 7/140 than 5/125.”
Except that it isn’t better for the Yankees when you consider that they wouldn’t be able to get the contract insured.
i miss bernie –
Its a lost cause.
“Do you not realize that 5/125 > 7/140?”
Not necessarily. It depends on the age of the player and how much risk he is willing to absorb.
For a 26-27 year old player 5/125 may be better. But for a player hitting free agency at 30 it probably wouldn’t be.
At the age of 35 it is unlikely that Santana will be able to sign for a two year $20 million per deal.
What Santana and his agent will be concerned about isn’t his AAV – the are concerned about the gross amount of money that he can make over the course of his remaining career.
That’s what’s important to them financially – maximizing the total amount he can get over the remaining year of his finite career.
A 7 year deal at $20-25 million will make it much more likely that Santana will maximize his total career earnings than a $5/ %125 million deal.
Why would the yankees even offer him $25 million per for 5 years at this point when the top value for a pitcher now is around $18 million?
There’s only one reason why the yankees would offer that kind of AAV for 5 years – because they believe that on the open market Santana could sign for more than that. If yo don’t believe that you wouldn’t offer 5 years/ $125. You’d offer 5 yrs/ 100 -110 million.
People always say no way player X is going to get Y dollars on the free agent market. And magically it seems to happen again and again. No one thought Zito would get close to $126 million. Yet he did.
Sure Andruw Jones signed for much less than people would have expected at the start of the season.
But who thought Aaron Rowand would get $60 million for 5?
It happens all the time in auction type situations.
Jennifer –
Go to: http://baltimore.diningguide.com/dl1ih.htm
There’s a restaurant listing for the inner harbor. They listed a few Italian restaurants, some in Little Italy, some not. I have no idea what any of them are like, though.
Oh no ray
You mean the yanks would run the risk of losing $15M if johan was out for ALL of yrs 6 and 7??
Oh no!
noone is going to sign Johan long-term for more than $25 million. noone.
noone is going to give Johan a 7 year deal, except maybe the Mets, and if they want to do that, like ray said, more power to them.
are there alot of pitchers who fall from #1 status to not work 7.5M/year between the ages of 35 & 37 without suffering some severe injury?
Boston Dave, Hank just said he’s not going past 5 years for a Johan contract, so whats the point in arguing whether the Yankees are going to miss out on him?
“Not necessarily. It depends on the age of the player and how much risk he is willing to absorb.”
Yes necessarily, it has nothing to do with with the players age. 5/125 is greater than 7/140 because of the time value of money.
Also, the Yankees will overpay for Santana if they work out a deal with the Twins simply because they want him. When they want someone they overpay for them. That’s what they did for Posada and Mo and that’s what they’ll do if they work out a trade with Minnesota.
turn 2
you’re right, hank has never gone back on his word in the long history of him being the mouthpiece of the yankees. so that does it.
Thanks, the problem we had last time was the game was out 10:30 ish and we weren’t ready to go to eat until after 11. Most places in the inner harbor are closed.
Turntwo – don’t say noone because you may be wrong.
If hank stands behind what he said today then they prob aren’t getting santana. That’s all. I just hope the Sox don’t realize that 7/140 is a bargain and man up.
question for those traveling to baltimore,
is there someplace that the yanks fan collect before the games to party a little? i know that when they came down here to philly Pat’s steaks looked like a yankees concession stand.
“Oh no ray
You mean the yanks would run the risk of losing $15M if johan was out for ALL of yrs 6 and 7??
Oh no!”
No, in your scenario they would lose 40 mil.
i said it before, and ill say it again: noone is giving Johan 7 years or more than $25 million AAV. its just not going to happen.
Turntwo/ray – its a moot point. The yanks are NOT offering 5/125. They would likely rather do 7/140 for obvious reasons ( well obvious to all but you). So will santana accept 5/100?
THAT is what we should be debating.
TurnTwo-
I could see the Mets make that move, but Minaya will probably be gone before he has a chance to make that offer.
Doreen,
If you are going to Baltimore and want a great place in Little Italy, you have to go to La Scala.
Great food, nice atmosphere, and it doesn’t break the bank.
Player insurance policies don’t vest. There is a limit as to what Lloyds of London will write and, at this time, its five years.
There are no vesting incentives to make them write policies for greater than 5 years. Especially since, at this time, they have no other companies writing player career ending disability insurance.
“The yanks are NOT offering 5/125. They would likely rather do 7/140 for obvious reasons”
Obvious to all but us and, apparently, Hank and Hal Steinbrenner…and Brian Cashman.
turn 2, u must be the guy that said that NOONE is going to extend randy johnson’s contract by 3 years.
“noone is going to give Johan a 7 year deal, except maybe the Mets, and if they want to do that, like ray said, more power to them.”
But that part of the point. From Santana’s perspective that’s probably what he’s thinking. Someone is going to give me a seven year deal – the met’s are a good bet.
All he needs to do is bet is that one team will meet his demands.
If the yankees were willing to give up Phil Hughes Melky and two other players and 5/ 125 million for Santana his agent would have to figure the yankees would shell out even more on the open market. They wouldn’t have to give up the talent.
Again, no one thought Zito would get anywhere near $126 million.
It’s not like there isn’t strong precedent for players getting much more than initially anticipated on the market.
If the yankees, red sox and mets are willing to bid this fiercely for him in terms of both talent and money think of how fiercely they’ll bid against each other on an open market when its only money.
they dont write insurance policies for over 5 years, but im sure they roll over policies when they expire.
Johan isnt accepting 5/100 because that is not much more significant than what the Twins offered. If he wanted $20/year, he’d have taken the Twins offer last year, and gotten abck out on the market again when he was 33.
if you are offering 5 years, you’ve got to overpay on the AAV.
whozat –
explain. The point you missed was that when hank says 5 yrs he likely means 5/100. If he meant 5/125 then he wouldn’t be so opposed to 7/140 because its a better deal for the team.
Someone asked yesterday why Santana hadn’t pushed this thing along? Well you point/counterpoints give a hint as to why.
Would you rather have 72-hour window to negotiate with one team or an off-season to negotiate with a myriad of teams? You get to name years, per annum, AND terms.
Santana will get $23-$25M per year from the Yankees. $23M extension via trade or $25M via free agency.
“Hank needs to shut his mouth… Hank is a businessman and I don’t think there are many successful businessmen who handle their dealings this way.”
My sense is that it is Howard Rubenstein advising Hank on his actions here more than Brian Cashman.
From our perspective, Hank may be hurting the Yankees’ opportunity to make the best trade. From his perspective, he’s getting millions of dollars worth of publicity and keep all of us at the edge of our chairs.
Hank thinks the Yanks’ ultimate competitive edge is all the $ we put in the coffers, more so than a great poker face.
turn 2
i see you have now come to accept that 7/140 is better than 5/125 (overpaying for the shorter deal)
edit: **keeping all of us**
i wouldnt exaclty say they are bidding fiercely… the Yankees and Red Saux are basically offering one top, high ceiling prospect and a bunch of moveable parts for him, and the Mets are throwing everything but the kitchen sink, hoping the Twins choose quantity over quality, and nothing about the situation has really changed in over a month.
mel
agree completly. santana had a somewhat ‘down’ year, (would that i could have such a down year…) i realize there is risk involved, but if i were him, i’d prefer to pitch out this year and go out on the open market at year’s end. im sure hell make tons of money either way, but hes more likely to get more with more bidders
no, i am saying that 5/125 is the better deal, because the Yankees can afford to overpay AAV to keep the contract length shorter at 5 years.
i miss bernie
Wharf Rat is a nice place, crowded but not insane like it is in the places across the street from the park.
“Yes necessarily, it has nothing to do with with the players age. 5/125 is greater than 7/140 because of the time value of money.”
The time value of money is not simply going to accrue over the course of Santana’s playing career which will only be a part of his overall financial life.
The time value of money will multiply several fold over the subsequent decades of Santana’s life once he invests it.
In addition I’m sure he’s figuring that the time value of his money will continue to extend over several generations of his family (kids, grandkids, charities, etc.).
That’s part of the reason why it makes sense for him to maximize the total amount he makes over his playing career and not worry about his average annual earnings.
The time value of an addition money accrued during year 1 of his contract versus versus year seven will be relatively small when compared to the time value of additional guaranteed money for a 6th and 7nth year (which he may never get at all if he gets hurt at age 34 or 35) for the next 40-45 years of his life. Never mind when that additional guaranteed money can be put to use over the course of his children’s and grand children’s lives.
Jennifer –
Both of these look to be in Little Italy, and both show that they are open after 11 p.m. on Sat. night.
http://search.cityguide.aol.co.....-102371477
http://search.cityguide.aol.co.....-102371398
what he say…
5/125 million is a good deal.I would probaly go with even six years only because he is just gonna turn 29.THat means when he starts to break down at 35,36 it will be his last years.
They don’t roll them over when they expire. When they expire, you have to go through the entire process again to get insured.
Player disability insurance is entirely different from the insurance policies the general public get for themselves.
Many of them come with various riders.
For example, if you had TJ Surgery, they usually don’t cover your elbow (or, if you negotiate well, specify another TJ Surgery) in the policy.
In other words, you can insure the player for everything except a previous injury to a specific area of the body. In most cases, the insurance company won’t cover that area.
The policies don’t roll over and they are VERY specific as to what constitutes a career ending injury. The player usually has to be deemed “done” by a series of doctors agreed upon by both parties in the insurance contract.
They are also horrifically expensive these days. All teams, not just the Yankees, are trying to stay away from the megacontracts because the insurance hassles are just another byproduct of them.
i miss bernie (too),
Exactly. Santana knows that even if he has another “down” year, he’s still the best in the game and will be able to command the money he wants.
I think he wants out of Minny badly. Do you?
Thanks for the suggestion, SJ44.
Yazman – do you think hanks comments, present or future, could actually hurt the team?
SJ – can you then explain the advantage of 5/125 over 7/140? is not 2yrs/15M more not a good deal?
“no, i am saying that 5/125 is the better deal, because the Yankees can afford to overpay AAV to keep the contract length shorter at 5 years.”
i agree. as a rule, i would rather overpay to keep the deal shorter.
now, i am not sure that $125M/5 vs. $140M/7 is the right amount of “overpayment”. perhaps it is more like $115M/5.
think about it like this:
the Yankees gave Giambi a $120M/7 year contract.
wouldn’t you have preferred the Yankees have given him a 5 year, $105M contract? sure, they were getting those extra 2 years at “only” $7.5M each. but wouldn’t the team have been better off if they were simply able to sever ties after the 2006 season?
the Yankees can afford an extra $1-2M per year. what NO TEAM can afford is paying a guy $20M to sit around and be useless.
hmmm, well said.
dudes, break it down however you want, a 2 year extention for 7.5M/year to a guy whos making over 20M is a great deal, even if a bit speculative. giving millions in signing bonuses to draft pics is speculative but thats what teams do.
if you just signed him a 5/125M and he then turned to you and said, oh hell whadya say lets go 2 more for 7.5M per year, you’d have to be crazy to say no.
hmmm -
Giambi was juicing and hus body broke down. What if the twins had added 2 more years to santanas current contract at 7.5M per? Think they’d be upset?
hmmm -
in your example – theyre technically paying him $7.5M (if compared to the 5yr deal) and he may not be useless this year.
btw, even giambi at this point in his career is worth 7.5M/year
IMB, then you’ve really got money to burn.
turn 2, so you’re saying the yankees dont have money to burn, and dont burn that money regularly?
hmmm -
you’re also not accounting for the time value of money factor. Its also not far- fetched that a healthy Giambi would get an offer of 2yrs/$10M this offseason so you could say that their absolute worst non-pavano contract cost them $2.5M per season. Very speculative I know but your example isn’t the best I guess.
The real issue here isn’t picking between $125 million/5 vs. $140million /7.
The issue is how much money would it take to overpay Santana on a 5 year deal to make up the opportunity cost of passing over his chance to hit the open market.
I’m sure his agents have a minimum figure they think he’d get on the market (a worst case scenario), a likely target and an upper boundary target it bidding gets gong.
Just my opinion – but I could see Santana getting $160-$175 million on the open market.
To make it worth his while to give up the chance to hit free agency those are the numbers I think his agent will use as a basis.
What contract is good for the yankees his secondary here. Santana has all of the leverage. The yankees can walk away from any deal. But Santana doesn’t have to approve anything – whatever the final deal they offer they are going to have to buy him out of the chance to hit the market.
That’s going to be very expensive any way you put it. IMO they will be hard pressed to do that in a way that makes financial sense over a 5 year period. The AAV would have to be astronomical – more than $25 million per IMO because I could see him getting close $25 million per on the market for a seven year deal.
I think the mets would jump at that.
just because you have money to burn doesnt mean you would openly choose to do so.
“What if the twins had added 2 more years to santanas current contract at 7.5M per? Think they’d be upset?”
not sure how this is relevant. he was 25 when he signed that deal.
if he was 25 now, we wouldn’t really be disagreeing about years 6 and 7, right?
it’s like i said, i am not sure that $125M/5 is the correct amount. paying an extra $5M per year to keep the contract shorter may be too much. i don’t know. but for an extra $3M per year? yes, i would probably opt for the shorter contract.
and like SJ44 is saying, you can’t insure past 5 years.
7/140? I’d do it. You’re essentially just putting him in Giambi’s payroll slot.
$18M/yr on that 3 year randy johnson extention…
$14M/yr for 2 years to mussina…
and pavano…
yeah , you’re right they yanks spend alot of time worrying about over extedinig contracts
thank you CB
Wow, Austin Jackson has really jumped in the last year
CB –
Do you think the yanks would say no to the 7/140 offer if they intended to counter with 6/125 or more?
My point was that if hank says no way to 7/140 then he is prob thinking closer to 5/100 – 110M. Either way that wont get it done.
CB –
Do you think the yanks would say no to the 7/140 offer if they intended to counter with 5*/125 or more?
My point was that if hank says no way to 7/140 then he is prob thinking closer to 5/100 – 110M. Either way that wont get it done.
“You really have to wonder why Johan did not make this deal happen. After all he is the power here.â€
Perhaps because he’s perfectly willing to go any number of places and isn’t going to screw his team out of a chance to make the best deal?
———————————————————–
2 reasons.
1) He will get a higher salary/longer contract as a FA.
2) He will have a greater variety of teams to choose from.
Whoever wants him now and is willing to give up prime talent, will want him more as a FA. And there may be teams willing to pay him, who don’t have the talent to make a trade. It’s really simply. Personally, I can’t imagine why Santana would allow ANY trade. Maybe out of loyalty to the Twins.
“Very speculative I know but your example isn’t the best I guess.”
perhaps. but try not to get hung up on the actual numbers.
i am not claiming to have done the math and figured out the optimal answer.
i am simply saying that IN GENERAL, i prefer to pay a slightly higher AAV in exchange for a shorter contract.
what you are paying extra for is INFORMATION.
let’s say Santana is still kicking @ss in year 5. ok, now the Yankees have the option to give him another extension, and they can do that before he hits free agency by again overpaying in AAV. it will have cost them some more money (which they have plenty of), but what it did was guard against the downside risk.
if Santana suffered a serious injury in year 5, it is obvious that the shorter contract was better. if he is still a #1 starter in 5 years, then the 7 year contract would have been better.
which scenario is more likely? we don’t really know, do we?
so it seems smarter to me to write as many “options” into the contract as you can. those options cost the Yankees money. that is reflected in a higher AAV.
that’s all i am saying.
This may be just me and my warped mind here but why is it whenever media reports something bad about a player who happened to play for the Yankees they picture them in a Yankees uniform (like ESPN and SI.com did with Jason Grimsley – who played for the Yankees for all of 2 of his 15 year career) but when a player does great – like Goose getting into the hall – they have a picture of him in another uniform – like on SI.com, Goose is in an A’s uniform. Goose played 6 season with the Yanks and 2 with the A’s. WTF??!? Am I being paranoid here or does there seem to be some serious anti-Yankee bias around the media (outside of NY) or what????
“$18M/yr on that 3 year randy johnson extention…
$14M/yr for 2 years to mussina…”
of course those numbers are really $16M and $11M, but what’s $5M/year when you’re trying to skew an argument in your favor?
Solution: Yankees persuade Santana to tell the Twins the only team he will go to is the Yankees and in return the Yanks give him 7 years at 170 million. The Yanks give up Melky Cabrera, Austin Jackson, and Marquez in a trade because Minnesota is not going to let this guy walk for nothing (don’t believe anything you hear about the Twins willing to let Santana pitch out his final year).
Yanks Win.
Santana Wins.
Twins Lose.
Somebody talk to Santana lol
the moose contract was a good contract, because it allowed the Yankees to sign a known veteran pitcher to a short deal at about market value and build a bridge to the young pitching, which is actually ready to produce ahead of schedule.
the pavano contract was actually reportedly below market value, considering the Tigers, Mets, Red Sox, and Mariners were all pursuing him at the time. hindsight is always 20/20.
the RJ extention was needed for him to agree to waive his no-trade. again, hindsight is 20/20.
I like it. All Johan really wants is to get paid. His agent is looking for 7 years/$140 million, so I could see the Yankees come back at 5/$125
———————————————————–
So, therefore, using those numbers, Santana years 35 and 36, in 2014 and 2015 would only cost (an extra) $15m. You wouldn’t pay $15m (in future dollars) for 2 years of a 35 year old Santana? Right now, a below average pitcher costs at least $7.5/yr.
Hank is just making bargining (tampering?) noise.
hmmm
i stand corrected, but it doesnt change my point. the yankees have regularly gone for longer contracts then other teams. arod got 10 years, pavano with only 1 decent season behind him got 4 years, and johnson was over 40 when they extended him and mussina has been declining (and whining) for years before his.
for the record, i am not saying the Yankees SHOULDN’T give Johan Santana a 7 year contract.
if he were a free agent, i’d love to get him for $140M/7 years.
i am just saying that i understand Hank’s point. if he is going to pay premium talent AND give a huge contract, i understand why he’d want to at least get some downside protection by limiting the out years on the contract.
of course, i don’t understand why he ANNOUNCED that fact, but i understand his thinking at least.
Boston Dave,
I’m really not sure what Hank is thinking. But I don’t think he’s just going to volunteer to give Santana $25 million dollars a year unless he has to – for any length of contract.
We keep talking about Hank here – but what about Hal? He seems to be the one primarily concerned over Santana’s cost.
I think the 5 year issue is Hank sending a signal over what the yankees overall parameters for a deal will be. I think he’s negotiating through the press to let Santana know we aren’t just going to sign you to a willy nilly, insane contract.
Hank has said over and over that he’s tired of players and teams trying to take advantage of the yankees by asking for much more money on a deal or talent on a trade than they do from other teams.
I think he’s probably telling Santana we’re not a bank or an open check book – we’ll pay you fairly but don’t think we’re just going to give you everything you want.
At the same time I don’t see how the yankees can give him a five year deal which makes financial sense for them that will also be enticing enough to santana to give up his chance to hit the market.
If Omar Minaya had the chance to sign Santana for 7 years $160 million I think he’d do it. If I was Peter Greenberg that’s what I’d be thinking when negotiating on behalf of my client.
There’s value to santana to sign a deal now and get guaranteed money. But there’s also value to him to hit the open market. It’s a matter of balancing risk and reward. For Santana the reward on the open market will be staggering.
hmmm, again, agreed. i’m only working off of the information that we are being provided by Hank, and working with his statements.
IMB, i guess you skipped my post.
sunny615, doesn’t sound too warped to me. Actually it sounds completely rational since you’re correct.
i think hank is saying to santana “we will pay you more than the red sox will” as loud as he can…
if you take out the part about 7 years, hes saying to santana, we will pay you $25M/year, which is what you’re probably hoping to get on the open market next year, so there’s no reason for you to spend next year on a 3rd place team.
hoping that santana will sway the twins to accept the yankees offer
If 4 out of 10 of those prospects pan out the Yanks will be doing well. I hope to see some of these guys for myself in ST.
Maybe it’s just me but I’m really getting burned out on all the Santana talk. Either do the deal, or don’t do the deal let’s just move on. I think the Yanks will be fine without him but I think I am a minority here.
WELL OF ALL THE DRAMATIC!! OH MY GOODNESS GRACIOUS!!!! RAWJAH IS, RAWJAH CLEMENS IS IN GEORGIE’S BOX!! HE’S DANGLING THAT MCNAMEE KID OUT THE WINDOW BY HIS HEELS!!! OF ALL THE DRAMATIC!!!! LET HIM GO, RAWJAH!!! DROP HIM LIKE HE DROPPED YOU!!!! OH NO!!! OH MY GOODNESS GRACIOUS!!! MCNAMEE HAS GRABBED A HOLD OF RAWJAH’S THIRD FOREHEAD EAR AND IS PULLING HIMSELF BACK UP!!! THESE TEARS ARE FOR JOE TORRE, OF ALL THE DRAMATIC!! BRIAN MCNAMEE HAS JUST, OF ALL THE DRAMATIC, RIPPED OFF RAWJAH’S THIRD EAR AND IS PLUMMETING DOWN, OH MY, OF ALL THE, HE’S DOWN!!!! MCNAMEE IS DOWN!!! RAWJAH HAS WON!!! OF ALL THE DRAMATIC!!!! THESE TEARS ARE FOR RAWJAH’S BEAUTIFUL THIRD EAR!!!
CB –
I got caught up in the 7/140 vs 5/125 thing. I think 7/140 is a very reasonable offer for reasons you’ve stated. I think if the Yanks find that to be too much – they aren’t getting him.
YanksRule, apparently some of the Yankee players feel the same way.
http://www.northjersey.com/spo.....53732.html
Suzyn,
LOL with tears.
raymagnetic,
Thanks for the link.
Suzy that was actually funny.
me too
i think the yanks will be at a distinct pitching disadvantage this year without santana. hoping that 3 young guys are gonna give you 175 or more effective innings is a real gamble. This team has no real ace. but this isnt only about this year.
the yanks will just about sell out YS’s for the next 3 years no matter if they fielded the trenton thunder. If they trade pitching now, they’re only gonna have to buy it back down the road.
i am prepared to live with the young guys even though i expect it probably means no playoffs this year. i think the yankees got off track after 2001 by trying to extend thier WS streak with older FA’s and that has been the root of the problem ever since (along with several bad drafts). its time to get the train back on track by passing on the superhero and letting the now replenished farm system produce long term success like it did in the mid 90′s.
i just hope that alot of these pampered bandwagon types dont make it too miserable to live through the transition. (where were they all in 1989?, o thats right they were at shea)
Saucy me three. I really wish Santana would just sign an extenstion with Minni and we can just be done with this already. I want to go to a game in April and see Phil Hughes pitching for us!!
Boston Dave,
If the yankees could sign santana on the free agent market for 7 years/ $140 million I would personally do it.
I’m much more concerned about the talent they are giving up than the money.
I also think that the yankees would be willing to pay him more if they didn’t have to give up prospects (keeping Phil and Melky at minimum contracts would help offset the financial impact of santana’s contract).
I’d think his agent has figures all of these permutation out already.
He’s in the drivers seat from here on out as long as he doesn’t get hurt.
I think we are all forgetting to offer hearty thanks to Brian Sabean and SF for giving Zito $126 million. It’s because of that ridiculous contract we are now discussing the importance of AAV, insurance ramifications, etc.
From all of us Bergen Co. Yankee fans, thanks Bri. (insert sarcasm)
What happens with Santana could have a monumental effect on the Yankees for years. I think its intersting stuff… I agree its going on too long but it was like this for daisuke and next year there will be someone else… not much else to discuss either unless you wanna talk Clemens.
brx lia
yankee fans cant complain about people giving out terrible contracts. sorry….
bernie: At a disadvantage compared to who?
Not necessarily making a point, but if you say object A is worse off/equal/better, then there’s usually an implicit object B being compared to. Just curious
i miss bernie:
I agree with terrible contracts. However, the Zito deal was catastrophic and for a pitcher. By these standards it is warranted.
CB – I think 7/140 is a slight discount. I guess I’m in the minority there. If he hits F/A I could see him getting 8/180… I know I will be laughed at. Its ok. I just think Santana is the best pitcher in baseball, contracts are going up not down, MLB is making record profits, teams realize that pitching wins, and aces are not available via free agency (its becoming very rare). You’d have many teams bidding incl the dodgers, mets, and angels…
Now that’s what you want to hear from an owner, “We’re very confident in Hughes…” Not, “He’s a fat toad”.
Thanks, raymagnetic, for the link.
If we get Santana, great.
If we don’t, you’ll see the vets players try to prove they can do it without him. You’ll see the rookies playing with a chip on their shoulders. No depending on a superstar to save the squad.
Complacency’s been thrown out the window. I think the old guys will be re-energized.
blargh
sorry i was responding to an earlier post. id say they are at a disadvantage to the Red Sox, for one and the indians for another. i know people dont think much of Dice K and think 38 pitches is washed up, but their big 3 has to be rated above ours (since our #3 is either moose, joba or phil) until our young guys establish themselves.
I know alot of people are gonna scream that im wrong, but im sure you’re gonna see that the vast majority of the non NY-BOS world agrees with my assessment. But as i say, this is only a temporary condition. i will be rooting my head off for the young 3 (and i still say Jeff Karstens is going to be heard from this year) and i think this is the long-term way to go. now if they can add santana as a FA next year, that will be icing on the cake.
sunny615 -
You’re right to an extent. But the more formal pictures showed Gossage in all of his uniforms in a collage-type picture.
It might just be that there are more Yankees pictures on file with the media. Even yesterday, when they were talking about Jim Rice, they showed video of him hitting – and it was against the Yankees. And then they were discussing Tim Raines, and all the video they had on him was with the Yankees. It’s probably more a matter of ease of finding data than it is of an active negative agenda. But I will say, they COULD try to do better research.
I miss bernie –
Don’t forget buchholz who I unfortunately think is going to be very very good.
I have a feeling, because of the insane amounts of money that are being offered to good pitchers that you will be seeing more of them on the FA market. Why sign with a team for a lot less than what you can get – even from possibly your current team – when you just need to say nope, I want to “test the waters”?
If Santana goes to FA he will get a healthy amount of money. Probably more than anything an extention will give him. So why would he sign early when all it would take is waiting 10 months?
I don’t understand why GMs can’t just say, Sabean made a bad deal and paid too much for a mediocre pitcher and just refuse to offer as much down the road. I know, I know. Collusion. But why is it collusion if teams just happen to reach the same conclusion — Sabean was an idiot.
And why is there never a financial correction in the downward direction?????
bernie: Fair enough, and I mostly agree
Boston’s staff I’m not sure about right now; I probably won’t decide until after the season starts and see how rotations go (or are planned as, anyway)
Grr – a bird in the hand…
But yes that’s why santana wouldn’t want to take too big of a discount.
I have been a supporter of Hank since the beginning. But my concern now is that he is basically taking the riegns from Cashman and Cashmans game is being blown up. Everytime he comments on a deal IMO, Cashman looses leverage. His style is to lay low and act like he doesnt need the player in question. Now you have Hank comming out and continuing to make the “i want Santana” statements. The apple doesnt fall far from the tree i guess.
Cashman is in his final year of his contract. The last one he did he made it clear that he wanted more control and he recieved it. This time around he will be faced with the same problem. Hank loves the spot light and Cash IMO wont get the control he wants. Lets hope this changes soon(LETTING CASH BE THE SPOKESMAN AND DEAL MAKER)or we will lost Brian by year end.
I agree with hmmm,SJ,ray and whoever else is for a 5 year more money vs. a longer contract. After Mussina and Giambi(made me gun shy) I wouldnt give anyone more than 5. Let someone else take that risk.
Doreen
I thought last year would be the year, well the Giants screwed that one up.
Doreen –
There was a downward correction after jete, arod, manny… But teams are making lots of money, building new stadiums, expanding the business. I dunno…
on the plus side, if everything breaks right (or course it never does) the yankees could decide next year that they dont need to add santana to thier stellar rotation of Wang, Phil, Joba, Kennedy and Karstens, and thier biggest problem is where to put Horne!
Jennifer –
They sure did. It was a free agency sea of mediocrity with Zito leading the pack. The salaries at least should have remained fairly stagnant. But once Zito got what he got, well, then the rest just followed. Again, I ask, why can’t there ever be a downward correction – oops, we overvalued last year, let’s re-assess.
No problem YanksRule/Mel.
Jennifer –
Zito was bad but zambrano just got 5/91.5 and would prob get much more on the open market. Sabathia may get 7/140.
doreen, ill be waiting for the ticket price correction right after that salary correction!
Boston Dave -
At least with Jeter, ARod and Manny you had a level of talent that was way above the average, and in Jeter’s case maybe not as far above average but he was amazing in the post-season. But Zito? Any way you cut it, his only asset was not having been injured, right, and so his reliability to go out and start games. I guess that’s highly valued these days. And if that’s the case, then Santana is on the same plane as Zito. He’s not been injured, he gives you lots of innings, reliable. So, he has to be valued the same as Zito. Then you just get into the years game. 7 Years is insane these days, especially for a pitcher, so if you don’t give him the 7 years, you’ve got to give him the equivalent money.
GOODNESS GRACIOUS!!!That was CLASSSIC.LOL
Bernie -
Hah!
Doreen,
I was just thinking along the same lines. The Giants made a bad deal and will regret it for the next 6 years, or longer.
The Yankees don’t need to make a deal like that. The decision comes down to staying with the current org plan or, go back to the Big Stein “Get me ______!” (fill in the blank with a big name free agent) days.
If teams are making record profits, why shouldn’t salaries go up? I get more money at my job if the company does well.
Doreen,
I thought you didn’t have a malicious bone in your body! What’s with the Zito hate? lol.
love ya… gotta go now!
what was it 39 days till life begins again?
o btw LETS GO GIANTS!!!
Doreen – santana is the best pitcher in the league. Zito, at the time, was what?top 30? worse?
zito’s deal was awful but lets see what sabathia gets and even guys like ben sheets if he has a solid year. its gonna be a bundle.
Yanksrule – agreed but when have they had a chance at the best pitcher in baseball, who is proven, a lefty, healthy, and entering his prime?
The problem in the past was getting older guys past their prime – on long deals.
Watch, Santana will go elsewhere and pitch for the Yankees when he turns 40.
Prediction
Who will be the top 3 most improved player for the Yanks in 08?
1.Damon(healthy and in shape)
2.Hughes(see above comment)
3.Farnsworth(heres hoping girardi transforms him)
Mel -
I guess it’s because he screwed up the market. He really did. And I really hate the fact that if owners and GMs decide that Sabean made a bad deal and they should not have to pay for that, they will be charged with collusion. It’s not really Zito’s fault; he did what any red-blooded American would do – take the best deal. It’s Sabean. And I
Boston Dave –
Zito should not have gotten such a deal, but now the rest of baseball has to pay for it in the money they will have to pay subsequent free agent pitchers. SF’s deal with Zito lowered the bar for the type of contract he got. I have no problem at all with Santana getting whatever he can get – as you said, he is the best pitcher in the league right now. I’m not sure Sabathia should command a Santana-type deal, but because of Zito, he will.
S.o.S27,
I really hope your predictions come true. Especially re Farnsworth. But unfortunately I think the expression “Million dollar arm, ten cent head” applies.
sunny, you’re right.
the rest of you – who is this Johan Santana you speak of? I’ve never heard of him.
GRRRRRR,
Watch, Santana will go elsewhere and pitch for the Yankees when he turns 40.
That is really cynical. True, so true, but very cynical
something that just occurred to me..
I wonder if a potential economic recession weighs in at all when a team looks at these contracts. Maybe not much but I imagine they consider it. No idea…
Doreen – maybe to an extent but I think pitching contracts were due to go up with or without the awful zito deal. maybe that sped up the rise…
Boston Dave –
The law of supply and demand, I guess. The pool of quality pitchers is relatively small, maybe even actually small, and the demand for their services is huge. Plus, throw in the ability of more teams to competitively bid for services. Market economics.
But even in business you can have anomalies and the market corrects itself. So, maybe if the teams start by limiting the length of contracts, that would be a seen as a correction of sorts.
Just for the record, it would be nice to have Santana.
Everybody needs to stop taking this all to heart… this is just a Yankee ploy to get Santana to stay a Twin until he reaches free agency in 2009. Hankenstein’s comment of 5 years likely only applies to an extension contract, meaning, if the Yankees have to give up Phil Hughes and co. then Santana is going to have to take take the hit as well, if i were Hank I would have even said the highest I would go is 5 years at 20 mil per, which is basically adding 1 year to the Twin’s offer. Remember when Cashman and Santana’s agent were on the same flight home from the Winter Meetings? I wouldn’t be surprised if Cash told Santana’s agent that if he played out the year a Twin, he’d be a 7-year $140 million Yankee pitcher in 2009.
To summarize this post:
Hank shoots off his mouth. 5 years for Santana max.
Hanks an idiot.
No he’s not.
Why give away anything?
What’s he giving away? Nothing.
Then give Santana 5/$125.
No, give him 7/$140.
Hanks says only 5 years.
Hanks an idiot.
No he’s not.
Hank will only give him $5/125
No, Hanks would rather give him 7/$140.
No. 5/$125 >>> 7/$140
No. I disagree. 5/$125
No, it’s not.
Yes, it is.
No, I’m sorry. It’s not.
No, I’m disagree It’s is.
No, 5/$125 is the better offer.
Better. For who?
Who?
Who’s on first.
What? It’s better!
What’s on second.
What?
Finally you get it.
Get what? Better for who.
Yes. Who’s on first.
What?
No! He’s on second.
Who?
One first.
DUDE! Where’s your head?
Where’s on third.
What?
On second.
Who?
On first.
JESUS!!!
He’s pitching.
Does that clear it up?
T-Kim. Correct.
But here’s what Hanks should have said.
“Boy, I really like Santana, but this trade is a tough choice. Say… when does Santana become a free agent anyway?”
someone should make a summary like that for every thread. pretty good.
I wake up, and we’re quoting Abbott and Costello.
This truly is the greatest Yankees’ blog ever.
You wouldnt happen to know the batters name that Jesus is pitching to would ya? Is there a catcher on board?
Becca, how’s about a Jewish Black Woman?
MGW: I got two of the three myself.
Maybe I should run.
Bonus, I’m from the NYC metro area!
Should do wonders for my popularity!
If someone gives CC Sabathia a 7 year contract, I hope they also invest for a nice comfy chair with cupholders he can pitch from on the mound along with a fleet of golf carts to get his to and from the mound.
You would have to be insane to give that man 7 years of anything when he abuses his body the way he does.
He’s a professional athlete with incredible talent and he’s still in his 20′s and he can’t stop himself from eating himself out of the league.
The guy’s enormous and a power pitcher.
Neither of those two age well in the game baseball.
See Fernandez, Sid for proof.
And don’t give me David Wells, he wasn’t a power pitcher. CC is all gas. Literally.
For Rebecca – a little Shakespearean Baseball
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BaGHVWKrcpQ
Old Yanks Fan -
That was my father-in-law’s absolute favorite sketch EVER! I just went and re-read it. It’s hysterical even just reading it.
Rebecca you just woke up?
GreenBeret7 –
That was great!
Cynical? Cynical is thinking that Hank will end up giving Santana 7/$175M. Positive thoughts. Positive thoughts.
Happy that you enjoyed it, Doreen. I’ve watched that think about 30 times and laugh every time.
Pete —
I am happy to see your growing interest in prospects but would still like to correct your misinformed skepticism on one point. It’s simply not true that for every Derek Jeter there are two dozen kids who fail. The truth is there are precious few Derek Jeters to begin with — of those ranked as highly as Jeter was in the minors, perhaps half fail. Not 96% — just one in two.
Here’s some evidence as it pertains to the Yanksees — In the last 20 years, New York has had only had six prospects who were ranked by Baseball America among the Top 20 prospects in all of baseball : these were Jeter, Bernie Williams, Nick Johnson, Alfonso Soriano, Ruben Rivera and a righthanded pitcher named Matt Drews. Obviously, two of these six failed. But four of six — a robust 66% — went on to pretty darned good major league careers. Perhaps you don’t agree on Nick Johnson, but I would simply point out that he was among the top 10 in OBP at least three different years, despite all his injuries.
But I’m actually understating the value of prospects. Here’s why: several Yankee minor leaguers who were never rated in even the top 100 became major league stars (and potential Hall of Famers) — we’re talking about Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte. So the truth is players ranked very highly in the minor leagues are not sure things — but they have an excellent chance of success (you can confirm this by going thru past Top 100 propsect lists). And even unranked players sometimes break through (and there are certain types of players more likely to be under-rated by the scouts — I’ll be interested, for example, to see how the undervalued Hilligoss progresses)).
So Yankee fans have good reason to enjoy the fact that over the last couple of years, they’ve had at least half a dozen top ranked minor leaguers. There’s even reason to believe a fairly high fraction of these will go on to be productive big leaguers. And hopefully some of theo thers just below them will blossom as well.
Who’s on first for the politically minded.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v.....re=related
GB: Seen that ages ago!
Jennifer: I woke up about noon. I only get to do this a few more days, though, then I have class.
Syracuse starts the spring semester early, eh?
Its funny how much time you people waste talking about Santana. This was a post about the Yankee’s top prospects and all you want to do is talk about a trade that wont happen. Unreal. Its about the KIDS in our system coming up. Something that we havent had since the mid 90′s. But whatever as you were….Johan Johan Johan.
Boston Dave,
You bet, I’m totally with you. He may already be hurting the team by weakening their negotiating position, as you rightly suggest.
But I was just thinking Hank may be more focused on keeping the team in the media, including the blogosphere. He’s definitely doing a good job there
But again, I agree with you. As a fan, I’d rather he follow Cashman’s lead a bit more with respect to player negotiations.
I say again, George needs to put in his will that Hank gets Howard Rubenstein as part of his inheritance package.
Gee, Rebecca, what would your platform be?
]
[and, ya gotta age just a wee bit
raymagnetic – “Not necessarily. It depends on the age of the player and how much risk he is willing to absorb.â€
Yes necessarily, it has nothing to do with with the players age. 5/125 is greater than 7/140 because of the time value of money. ”
No, the time value of money hurts your argument. Because you would be paying $20MM per year rather than $25MM per year in the first 5 years, the time value of money actually decreases the difference in the relative values of the two proposals.
The Net Present Value of those payment streams discounted back at a 10% discount rate yields only a $5MM difference in total contract value not $15MM. I don’t now the Yankee’s cost of capital…that’s an arbitrary round number estimate, but it doesn’t change the basically analysis to assume a slightly higher or lower cost of capital. I think you’d be crazy to not want an additional two years of Santana at the back end for essentially $5MM.
2008;
Wang
Joba/Mussina
Hughes
Pettitte
Kennedy
Use the other young guys in the pen (NOT Joba) Almost every setup guy was setup because he was not good enough or had only one or two pitches (Mo). Some of these guys are better suited for the pen because of being hurt all the time. Give the kids a chance.