Yankees, Red Sox eyewitnesses to a crime
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jan 30, 2008 
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Bob Klapisch of The Record reported today that the Twins tried a last-ditch proposal of Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and another prospect for Johan Santana.
No dice. Klap also says the Red Sox took both Jacoby Ellsbury and Jon Lester off the table.
In the end, Minnesota had little choice but to take what the Mets were offering. Omar Minaya got Santana and held on to his best pitching prospect (Mike Pelfrey) and his best hitting prospect (Fernando Martinez).
Talked to three people today about the deal, two scouts and a former GM. They all said the Twins were held up without a gun. Carlos Gomez is fast. And beyond that, well he’s fast. He’s an undisciplined hitter with a good glove.
Phil Humber is a kid the Mets had no faith in when they were searching bus stations and homeless shelters for starters last season. Deolis Guerra is a big (6-5) kid with a below-average fastball. Kevin Mulvey’s ceiling may be as a No. 4 starter.
There is no question whatsoever that the Yankees or the Red Sox could have come up with the players to make the trade yesterday. But both teams were clearly put off by the idea of paying Santana $120 million.
Good as he is, there were red flags all over his second half of the season. The idea in baseball now is to pay a pitcher for what he can do for you, not for what he did for somebody else.
Meanwhile, hot dogs at the new stadium in Queens will be $17.50.
Pete,
With this post all of the Brian Cashman haters will be coming out in full force now I’m sure. I agree with Cash’ position however. To me it’s better to just keep drafting high ceiling players and having them play for you for cheap. If you draft enough high end talent some of them are bound to become stars. I still think the Yankees will make the playoffs this year, that lineup is still strong and their won’t be 17 different pitchers making starts this year, good times.
*there won’t be*
Pete, long time no chat. Bottom line here is Cashman’s butt is on the line as Pack a Day Hank will kick it for him if Santana and the Mets have a big season. I know you are now sleping with the enemy how about some props for Omar for this swindel instead of writing the woulda coulda about the Highlanders.
As for the $17.50 hot dogs, I’ll take two with ONIONS!!!
Cashman is sickening.. he’s fallen in love with our prospects.. he might as well be a scout instead of a GM… I bet he’d hang on to Alberto Gonzalez if the Cardinals offered Pujols.
this is going to be a really interesting year.
basically cashman is going to make or break his future with the decisions he made this off season.
Eh, those same people bashing Cash for ‘missing out’ on this deal are the same people who forget that Epstein also didn’t ‘take advantage’ of this.
Or that Smith could’ve resumed playing the Red Sox and Yanks against each other to raise the price again.
I’m disappointed that Santana won’t make it to free agency. I am glad, though, that we keep the kids and Johan won’t be wearing red stockings.
You can’t fault Bill Smith for the lack of market, but he should’ve pulled Santana until the market got better. At least pretend that you would be okay with keeping Santana in ’08. The Mets knew they wouldn’t have to give up their top 2 prospects. Smith telegraphed every move down to the self-imposed deadline.
You have to take that deal.
I guess the Yankees really didn’t want to have to pay Santana for the next 7 years. I mean, it has to be the money, right?
Adding Johan for that package improves our rotation and our pen (Joba can continue to set up Mo.). We become a top of the line staff.
Hopefully, this non-trade works out for us in the end.
It really seemed to work out well for the yankees. Santana is not in our division or even leauge anymore and as fans we get to appreciate the talent we have been rearing for the last five years or so. its a good day to be a yankee fan.
And Pete, I wouldn’t believe a word that is in Bob Klapisch column. He is considered a joke of a writer in Bergen County. Look back at his columns and you will see the guy trash Jeter and even call him one of the worst short stops in the game. LOL
The Yankees should have made the Kennedy deal.
Johan Santana
Chein-Ming Wang
Andy Pettitte
Phil Hughes
Joba Chamberlian
Thats worth the money and prospects
The letters that have tails (y, j, g) are cut off in the name part of the post.
Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera and somebody else for Johan Santana? I’d have done it. But it wasn’t do or die IMO, so let’s just see how this plays out. It’s gonna be very interesting to see how Ian, Melky, Phil and Johan are gonna do this season.
For $125 + million dollars, the Mets and their fans better hope they are eating hot dogs and not crow.
“basically cashman is going to make or break his future with the decisions he made this off season.”
I actually respect Cashman’s gangster for his decision. Even if he decided to make the trade it still could have ended up badly for him.
pete is right in pointing out the red flags on santana. after a game he pitched in august striking out something like 13 or was it 17 guys…he never threw his slider again. his ERA went well over 5. he’s gone from getting a lot of ground balls to getting lots of fly balls. he gave up a LOT of homers last year as well. maybe he will be the ace he always was this year and into the near future, but he may well not. he’ll certainly fare much better in the weak NL
theo and cash obviously were concerned enough about these issues not to pull the trigger. we should all be grateful that old stein isn’t pulling the levers any more
PS the daily news claims the twins wanted IPK and Wang in the trade, not just kennedy and melky
I love Cashman as much as the next guy, but giving up Kennedy, Melky, and another prospect for Santana? This should have been a done deal. We get to keep Phil, Joba, Cano AND get Santana. You get a legit #1 starter (Yes, Wang is amazing, but Santana is better) who can throw 200+ innings and not worry about this pitching problem next season with the 3 young guns.
Hopefully it’ll all work out for the best, and Ian turns into the next Moose.
“He is considered a joke of a writer in Bergen County. Look back at his columns and you will see the guy trash Jeter and even call him one of the worst short stops in the game. LOL”
Klapisch has his faults, but that isn’t one of them.
If Smith took the Mets’ poo-poo platter for Santana, anybody think there’s a shot the Yanks can give him another one for Nathan?
…And people wonder why I eat so dang little.
mike eff, if you’re right, then I take back what I said in my last post.
Didn’t Klapisch also mention that Cameron no longer being an option had something to do with it. Perhaps the idea of Gardner or Corey Patterson and his swing at anything above the eyes approach kept Cash from pulling the trigger. If Cameron had held out longer, both he and Santana might be Yankees.
What’s funny is, the Twins were STILL asking for more from the Yankees than they got from the Mets.
Bill Smith screwed this deal up bigtime. Once Hughes was added to the deal in December, that’s when he had to pull the trigger and get it done.
Instead, he shopped it. Ended up killing him and his franchise in the end.
I talked to a lot of baseball people I know at that time and they all said it was a mistake. They were convinced that the longer the Twins made the Yankees think about doing the deal, they would back out.
Mainly, because baseball has changed today. Only desperate teams pay for pitching on the open market. The rest? They develop their own and look for smarter deals.
In the last 3 years just about every team that paid for pitching on the open market overpaid for it and it didn’t work out. I think the Yankees were just tired of being in that group and decided to go in a different direction. Can’t say I blame them when you look at the pitching mistakes they have made the past few years.
I know, I know, Johan Santana is different. Maybe he is. Maybe he isn’t.
In the end, two pretty smart organizations (the Yankees and Red Sox) both felt he wasn’t worth it. Time will tell if they were correct.
I admire what Cashman is doing. For the naysayers, they will put him on “notice”.
Got news for you. He is on “notice” every year. This year is no different.
If these younger arms turn out to be solid pitchers, these same “naysayers” won’t give Cashman or the Yankees any credit. They will just whine about the first base position.
Let’s face it. We have a generation of Yankee fans who are, simply put, whiners. Its never going to change.
Let’s remember, the Yankees aren’t exactly the Marlins. They will score close to or over 900 runs this year. Their young arms don’t have to be lights out. They just have to give them solid starts, while learning to pitch in the big leagues.
My only concern with this team is the bullpen. If the bullpen holds up, this is a VERY tough team. If it doesn’t, they may need to keep Joba in the ‘pen all year.
Other than that, I’m not afraid to take this team into the regular season and see how it makes out.
Ask yourself these two questions:
1. If the price was so low, what’s to stop Smith from going back to Epstein to up the price and repeat this over and over?
2. If this was such a fantastic deal, why didn’t Epstein take advantage? They could’ve absorbed the apparent ‘cheap’ talent cost easily. They have the resources for the payroll hit if necessary.
I think that Cash made the right choice. There may be movement to the west coast with one outfielder, so you have to keep the milk man.
The Cameron option is what’s being lost here. If the Yankees made the trade in December, they would have signed Cameron to play CF.
They don’t see Damon as an everyday CF anymore.
Its why trading Melky in a Santana deal yesterday makes no sense for the Yankees.
Think of it as a big puzzle. One piece fits into another piece.
That’s why there was a deadline from the Yankees side. Once the other parts (ie: Cameron) went elsewhere, the deal made less sense for the Yankees.
You can’t trade your starting CF two weeks prior to ST and think you are improving your team. You just create another hole.
Thats insane Brian would risk the season to keep all these prospects who won’t be even near Santana.I mean Knnedy won’t be the next Mussina.Thats a big gamble.I hope all three play good but 200 innings and 200 strikeouts don’t grow on trees.
I hope they work out the big three and prove everybody wrong but if we don’t go to the playoffs or get out of the ALDS Cashman got to be fired.Yes keep Hughes but Kennedy and Melky.
Wow, I hope Cashman gets fired as soon as Johan signs an extension with Mets and the deal goes through. If he passed up the best pitcher in baseball for Kennedy, Cabrera and prospect, then he might be a worse GM than Bill Smith. We will come to regret this deal for years to come when Kennedy is no better than a 5th starter and Melky becomes too fat to play the outfield effectively. I am hereby changing my SN to Steve (Cashman sucks)
What I am thinking is that there maybe more to trading Matsui than just rumors. Or the knee is still as bad as last year and they need Damon to play left and melky in center.
He’s not “risking the season”.
Geez, what if they traded for Santana and he got hurt in ST? Is the season over?
He isn’t risking the season. He, like the Red Sox, made the decision that the OVERALL package isn’t worth it.
If it was such a no brainer, the Red Sox would have grabbed Santana. They also backed out. Are they “risking their season”?
#1 – Even if Wang wasn’t asked for, it was Kennedy, Melky, and another top prospect. That’s Tabata, Ajax, or Horne.
#2 – It’s not about the money. It’s about the combination of the money and the players. Kennedy is not Hughes, but he still has immense value. I think people will be surprised if he doesn’t become a league average starter (as soon as this year), which is worth about $10M a year.
#3 – As others have said, who plays CF? The downgrade from Melky to Gardner or Patterson (never mind the money Patterson would make) cuts into the advantage Santana brings.
Passing on this was the right move. All the Yankees had to do was ensure he didn’t end up in Boston, and they were successfully. Same thing from Boston’s side – all they wanted was for the Yankees not to get him. Cashman and Theo played this beautifully.
Thing is the Twins didn’t plug any of their hole in the lineup or rotation.
I wonder what Santana is thinking with all this. While the Mets are OK, they don’t stand anywhere near the level that the Yankees or Red Sox are on. Maybe he doesn’t mind playing for himself, as his ERA should go down, but the Mets didn’t really improve the problems they had last season at the end, other than gaining Santana, which only accounts for 1/5 of the games played at most.
I read that Santana is looking for a signing bonus to give him the full amount for this year that he feels he is worth. Meaning 6-7 million or so. Either that or an entirely new deal.
Jon is exactly right. Its the combination of money AND players that made the deal unworkable.
I love how some folks have already decided the careers of Ian Kennedy and Melky Cabrera. Kennedy’s numbers were better than Joba’s in his starts last year and Melky’s numbers his first two years in the league are better than Bernie Williams after the same period of time.
No teams’ fans undervalue their own players more than Yankee fans. They always believe another teams players are the “keys” to the season.
I don’t know. I’ve seen 7 years of going after the biggest, brightest “stars” on the open market and its been met with (chartiably) mixed reviews.
I like the new wave of thinking. Hell, its what made last years run so much fun…..until the midges hit in Cleveland.
Let’s not be so quick to determine the futures of guys like Kennedy and Cabrera. Especially when these snap, emotional conclusions are not shared by people who actually know a little about talent in the game.
The Yankees hands have been tied the whole offseason with this Santana fiasco, maybe now is the time to move Matsui for some prospects/bp help.
I’m so happy the Mets got Santana. Who cares what Bill Smith told Cashman, it’s a done deal we can all sleep and stop clicking the refresh button on MLBTR.com finally lol.
As for Melky, I love him. Someone said he passed the “Conrad Testâ€. I think that’s funny but true. Wise veteran Yankee fans do have a good feelings for players. I would hate to see Cano without Cabrera and vise versa, they really feed off of each other. It’s always good to have friends on the team that can speak the same language.
Does anyone know if Matsui speaks English well yet? Or is he fine with knowing the baseball basics and keeping true to his Japanese ways?
I’m so excited for the Yankees future. Youth is egniting the team and will domninate starting in 2-3 years.
We could have Wang, Hughes, Joba, IPK, and for the next 10-15 years!!
Also, after the aging Abreu, Damon, Matsui leave in 2-3 years, LF Tabata CF AJax and RF Cabrera will dominate!
SJ44,
Thanks for bringing sensability back to the boards.
SJ44-
Theres risks everywhere.But the chances of Santana getting hurt is less likely then Kennedy ever being a #5 guy in the majors and being good.Santana started logging 200 innings after 25 when you are supposed too..He is in great shape because the Twins made sure of that.But HGH Pettitte ain’t giving 200 strikouts and he also is 35 with a bulking elbow but hey Santana is the injury risk.
Wang has been in the DL every year at least once since being a Yankee and had 199 hits in 199 innings.Mussina had a 5 Era.Those are worst risks.SAntana making $20 million is a pretty good offer in this crazy market.
It’s crazy how a 29 year old in his prime and the greatest pitcher in the game had 2 bad months last year because he was on a non contending team is seen like a old man.
@Old Goat
By my count, the Phillies are worse, the Braves are about equal if not worse (Teixiera for the whole season, but Smoltz is a year older and Renteria/Jones are gone).
The Mets effectively replace their 5th starter (a position filled by Sosa, Pelfrey, Brian Lawrence, Chan Ho Park, and 5 short starts by Pedro, for an aggregate ERA of, I don’t know, 5?) with Pedro, and replacing Glavine with Santana.
Explain how they’re not that much improved and aren’t the favorite in the east?
“the Mets didn’t really improve the problems they had last season at the end, other than gaining Santana”
That’s kind of like saying “I’m poor, I only make $10,000 a year – and I didn’t do anything about it other than winning $50,000,000 in the lottery”, isn’t it?
Matsui’s english is fine. He just doesn’t like to use it in interviews because he doesn’t want to look like he doesn’t understand a question.
I don’t see any Matsui trade on the horizon. Right now, you go with what you have and see how it plays out.
Girardi can find a way to keep guy fresh and rotating in and out of the lineup. Its an older team in some areas and the additional rest (by having a better bench) will help some of these guys later in the season.
Right now, the hope is one or two of the younger arms emerge in the bullpen. If they do, its a team that has very few weaknessess.
Cashman is a moron! Kennedy, Cabrera, +1 …
OMFG!@ No way! Wow! No words for that at all. This was Johan Santana… I am personally calling for cashman’s head if that is true.
mind-boggling, numbing and absurd.
All I am saying is when you have a chance to acquire the best pitcher in baseball for a guy who might not pitch 180 innings next year and an average at best center fielder and a prospect, you have to do it. There is no question about it. Everyone here was desperate to keep Phil Hughes and now that we know that option was available where all we had to give up was Kennedy and Cabrera, people are still praising Cashman. As a GM you cannot fall in love with your own players. You have to treat them like commodities, tradeable if necessary to improve your club. And Cashman cannot show that ability to be rational. His tenure will be defined by this failure.
@McLovin
“But the chances of Santana getting hurt is less likely then Kennedy ever being a #5 guy in the majors and being good.”
I would wager that Kennedy has a better chance of being a #5 starter (say, consistent ERAs below 5, as a simple albeit flawed measure of effectiveness) than Santana does of not getting hurt over the next 6 years.
if cashman is letting the media know about what transpires in every conversation he has with other gm’s then he’s dumber than any of you think. The fact of the matter is that what we read in the papers is an incomplete picture of what actually goes on. i take anything i read about who wants what with a grain of salt. sometimes a very big grain of salt. people who want to jump on cashman will believe that all it would take was kennedy and melky and won’t want to hear anything else. of course, if we had gotten santana, and he had gotten hurt, these people would probably be the first to call for his head, a la pavano.
If Klapisch is correct and the yankees could have gotten Santana by substituting Kennedy instead of Hughes then this deal really was mostly driven by economics.
The yankees decided that signing a pitcher to seven year deal (even a pitcher as good as Santana) isn’t in the rational best interest of the club.
The main driver behind this decision was probably Hal. The risk of giving any pitcher a seven year deal for $130-140 million is enormous.
It says a lot that arguably the two most successful teams in baseball both passed on the best pitcher in baseball.
The red sox have that luxury given the 2 WS they’ve won in the recent past.
For the yankees it’s a more complicated story. Paying twice for santana in terms of talent and money is problematic. I like Ian Kennedy but it you could get Santana for a kennedy based package, its tough to turn that down. Hughes and the money I can see.
With Kennedy – I think its tough to turn down.
We have no idea what Bill Smith said to Cash when he called for “one” last offer. We’ve heard it was IPK and Melky, to IPK and Wang. There are only two people who know for sure, and that is Cash and Bill.
It is totally insane that people are saying firing Cashman. He has a lot of faith in our youth, and as SJ pointed out, IPK had a better end of the season than Johan. While Johan had a good year last year, it was a downgrade from his usual years. Who is to say that he isn’t breaking down? Than where would we be.
Unless the kids totally flop next year we will still win our 90 plus games. Think about it, look who started a number of games last year and we still were over 90 games, same for the years before that. We had the likes of Scott Erickson starting games for us. We will be fine!!
“http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=738″
Nate Silver thinks Santana will be worth and extra 3.5 wins to the Mets. Is that worth 25mil a year? Guess that all depends on how you look at it.
“Good as he is, there were red flags all over his second half of the season. The idea in baseball now is to pay a pitcher for what he can do for you, not for what he did for somebody else.”
I agreed with your post up until this remark. First of all you are wrong, there are very few red flags about Santana’s performance in the second half of the season. He had a 4.04 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP and 110 K’s in 98 IP in the second half. In the second half he had a better K/9IP (10.10) and lower BB/9IP (2.02) than he did in the first half. The only thing alarming about his performance last year is the number of homers he allowed, that’s it. And when you mention red flags I suppose you are highlighting the 4.04 ERA, right? In the second half he gave up 44 earned runs in 98 IP. 8 of those ER came in his final 2 starts in his final 10 IP. Prior to those final 2 starts, his second half ERA was 3.68. Is that alarming and a cause for “red flags all over his second half of the season” up to that point? Of course not. He got knocked around in his last 2 starts and his ERA in the second half spiked to 4.04, and so now apparently that caused all these red flags to appear?? You can judge that as meaning he is done, but most reasonable people understand that ERA fluctuates quite easily like that, especially in under 100 IP. That’s why I included his second half WHIP of 1.12, K/9IP of 10.10, and BB/9IP of 2.02. His K:BB ratio was 5.00 in the second half! That is amazing. He was elite in these 3 stats. He was disappoitning for his own standards in ERA. And most alarming was the rate at which he gave up homers. However, the overall picture is that this guy’s stuff was still dominating the opposition. There are few red flags about these numbers. He was, and is, the best pitcher in baseball.
The main reason the Yankees and Red Sox didn’t want to trade for him is exactly as you pointed out earlier, he will cost way too much in terms of money and prospects. This has nothing to do with Santana’s performance. Everybody loves Santana’s performance. He is the best pitcher in baseball over the last 5 years and is amazingly consistent in that regard. If the Yankees or Red Sox really feel like they need pitching help after 2008 is through, there are several attractive free agent pitchers that they can think about next offseason, if it’s even necessary. It wasn’t worth paying 120 million and losing Hughes/Melky for essentially one year of Santana, since that is what the Twins were trading away. And there’s also the possiblity of giving 120+ million and all the prospects away and Santana ends up getting some fluky long-term injury. It just didn’t make sense to put all that money into one player when the Yankees and Red Sox quite frankly just aren’t desperate enough. The Mets needed the immediate help more desperately, which is why they pulled the trigger.
This isn’t about not wanting to pay for what people have done in the past. I don’t know why you like that line so much. You can say that about every single friggin’ free agent there is. What free agent does not get paid well for what he has done in the past? If the Yankees go and sign Mark Teixeira to a huge contract next offseason, will that not be because he has been so awesome in the past? What, does that wierd rule you created not apply to hitters or something?
The Mets will pay Santana 120+ million dollars and he will in all likelihood dominate and earn every penny of that over the next 5+ years. Sure you are paying him for what he has done in the past, but you are also paying him heavily for what you expect him to do for you in the future. The Mets could now very well be the favorites to make it to the World Series from the NL next year. If they win the WS in the next few years and Santana plays a big role in that, then that is exactly what they are paying him for.
So this has nothing at all to do with Santana’s performance concerns, since there are none. It’s all about Santana’s cost for the Yankees and Red Sox, not Santana’s performance. Why is that so hard to grasp?
The 3.5 wins will be because Santana is effectively replacing Glavine who had a WARP of 4.0 last year.
SJ44,
I agree with you on the whole about giving the youngsters the opportunity, not breaking the bank for Santana, and taking our chances this coming year pending the success of our bullpen.
On the other hand, Melky and Kennedy plus another prospect indicates that the Yankees did in fact FINALLY get Smith to lower his asking price. We would have kept two of the three pitching prospects we have (Hughes, IPK, Joba) and still have six guys for a rotation in case one went down in ST.
As for $$, I know Santana is expensive, but Hank was willing to after him as an FA and you know we would have gotten him there.
I don’t think this should make or break Cashman because, as you put it, he is always on the hot seat. He is sticking to his guns and keeping/building the farm.
I know this sounds contradictory, but that IPK/Melky deal might have been reasonable enough. Plus, the Yankees need was not as great as the Mets, thus Greenberg and Santana would not have had nearly as much leverage as they do with Omar.
The main thing in question is Santana’s arm. I guess we will get to wait and see whether or not this injury or wear-and-tear theory pans out. I hope it does for Cashman’s sake because, like it or not, he’ll get axed if Santana pitches to form and the Yanks don’t play up to us whiners’ standards.
SJ44:
“Bill Smith screwed this deal up bigtime. Once Hughes was added to the deal in December, that’s when he had to pull the trigger and get it done.
Instead, he shopped it. Ended up killing him and his franchise in the end.”
I totally agree.
“If these younger arms turn out to be solid pitchers, these same “naysayers†won’t give Cashman or the Yankees any credit. They will just whine about the first base position.”
I disagree (speaking for myself) Are you arms are amazing! Even if they don’t stand out this season, I too will allow them to grow without holding them accountable.
However, Kennedy, Cabrera +1 .. You have to do this deal! It’s a gift from your deity of choice! Unreal that he passed it up.
Bill Smith should be 86′d. Cashman makes some real dumb moves with regards to pitcher signing or not signing.. this to me takes the cake. Wow!
Again, if this was supposedly THE.BEST.DAMN.DEAL.EVERRRRRRR, why didn’t the Red Sox take it?
“Everyone here was desperate to keep Phil Hughes and now that we know that option was available where all we had to give up was Kennedy and Cabrera, people are still praising Cashman.”
Do we know if this is true? This is the last time I’ll post this but it’s been reported that Bill Smith asked for Kennedy & WANG. If that is true would you still make the trade?
How are there “risks” everywhere? There are some people in baseball who think that Santana is hurting right now.
He will pass his physical because there is no way the Mets won’t do this deal. That doesn’t mean he is healthy, or will stay that way.
You never know with pitchers.
It is a red flag that his velocity was down late last season. It scared off the Angels from even getting into the bidding.
Even if he is healthy, the price the Twins wanted to extract from the Yankees was way too much. Plus, if you sign him for 6-7 years, you need him healthy for that period of time.
Especially since insurance will only cover the first 3 years of his deal. That means, if he gets hurt in yrs 4-7, you are stuck with the contract.
That’s a big consideration for teams and its why so few were in the running.
Pettitte was healthy all last season and pitched an unbelievable playoff game. A game he should have won.
Just because you are on a childish toot about Pettitte, don’t undermine his ability. He’s a better post-season pitcher than Santana and had an excellent year last year.
BTW, Santana has had bone chip problems in his elbow. Its the risks that come with the profession. No pitcher who has logged his innings is “healthy”. They just know how to deal with the pain.
There are no sure things in baseball. If you think the Yankees acquiring Santana would have guaranteed them anything, you are crazy.
All it would have done is made people feel better.
I’ll take my chances with the younger guys and see what happens. If it doesn’t work out, there are always moves you can make.
Its a helluva lot easier to make moves when you aren’t so tied down to yet another 100+ million dollar deal.
Its why I can’t wait for the Giambi contract to expire. It will allow the Yankees to do more than they can right now.
CB,
That is a great point.
The 7 year contract is scary, especially if we force ourselves to remember Kevin Brown’s contract with the Dodgers.
I guess if there was all this uncertainty all along because of economics, then it was enough to just let it pass. Again, all we can do now is speculate.
I am glad he is in the NL though, that is for sure.
So bascially Cashman said “we like having too many outfielders, and Ian Kennedy will be as good as Johan Santana at age 28.”
Fantastic. We kept a pitcher who relies on painting the corners, instead of getting a left handed fireballer.
There’s principles, and then there’s stupid. If they wanted Melky and Ian, and we didn’t bite, we’re stupid.
As for Kennedy’s numbers last year: have we forgotten Chacon and Small? With a small enough sample size, anyone can look like Cy Young. The fact of the matter is Kennedy’s has shown, quantitatively, very little, so he’s a huge gamble.
Melky’s career HAS been decided. He is what he is. Plus defense in center, pedestrian at the plate. He’s not going to find a surge of power, or patience. People who believe he still has a lot of upside left are deluding themselves.
I’m really glad we kept Hughes. I do think he has the stuff to make it in the bigs. But I’ve always felt people were too in love with Kennedy. His pitching style — paint the corners — is the hardest to succeed with.
kennedy better not stink it up this year or hes going to get boo’d out of yankee stadium
heathcliff
a 17 so game would skew the stats.
The problem when discussing the money is, its not just the 120 million+ Santana will get. Its how much it costs the Yankees vis a vie, the luxury tax.
Its the problem with having a 200 million dollar payroll. IIRC, when factoring in the luxury tax cost, you add 40% to the bottom line of the Santana deal and that’s what it will cost the Yankees.
JMO but, that and giving up players, is too much. If its just the money, I’m sure the Yankees would have eaten it.
But, a starter from your rotation (or two….depending on the accuracy of the reporting of Smith’s demands), your starting CF (with no replacement in place) AND a 40% tax hit for one player?
Sorry, I can see why they passed.
You can’t possibly be comparing Ian Kennedy to a journey man, and Shawn Chacon can you? That is beyond laughable.
SJ44 said:
“I’ll take my chances with the younger guys and see what happens. If it doesn’t work out, there are always moves you can make.”
The thing about taking our chances with younger guys, like Kennedy, is if it doesn’t work out, there *aren’t* moves to make because you’ve exposed Kennedy’s potential, and thus, value. Stock in Kennedy is high right now, and in my opinion a little too high.
The contract is a big issue, I agree. But the Billy Beane Oakland A’s have shown what you get when you aim for contract efficiency above all else. 85-93 wins and a first round exit.
The great irony here is that this was for Johan Santana, *the* best pitcher in baseball the past 4-5 years. He’s 28. Had this been for anyone else save a Ben Sheets or Felix Hernandez, the argument against trading becomes easier. And yes, while there is risk in Santana, there are at least known quantities there: 200+ innings. Power pitcher. Proven able to handle the pressure. While not everything is a gaurantee, there is less at risk than that of a prospect. Santana is the exception, imo, to the stay young plan for the Yankees.
I have a question on the luxury tax, are they just taxed on the dollar amount above the set amount? or is it on the entire payroll?
For example say the limit was 150, and we had a payroll of 200. Do we pay tax on the 50 or the entire 200?
Personally, I will not hold Cash accountable if the Yankees don’t make the playoffs.
I will not whine.
I was the guy last season saying that I was perfectly fine with the Yankees having a “down” season if it meant building up the farm for the long haul.
Only morons would boo player mentioned in the Santana talks. If you want to be in that grouping, be my guest.
What Cashman, and the Yankees are saying is, they don’t want to give up prospects (better one’s than the Mets gave up), give a 7 year deal to a pitcher AND take a 40% hit on 150 million dollars to acquire one player.
THAT’S what they are saying. Especially since that one player, as good as he is, only plays once every 5 days.
Its not that complicated.
A GOOD POST SANTANA MORNING TO ALL.
Do you guys smell that. Yes. Its the smell of relief. Man its wonderful to be a Yankee. I mean here we are with the best lineup in the league. A better pitching staff than last year at this time. A team that had the best second half record in the league despite all those injuries. A hard nose new Manager that wont get caught falling asleep or picking his nose. A team that signed all its stars. A deeper farm this year ready to come up than last year. And all i here is how we should have pulled the trigger for a guy that in a couple years could be the next to take a Pavano vacation.
SJ,
Your right. If we had the chance in December than maybe yes. But it would cost us more than just a pitcher now. It would probably cost us a long term contract like Matthews or a week hitter like Patterson. Not worth it. Besides no pitcher is worth 7 years anyways. If we signed him we would have people whining about why we let Phil go. And that he is a future Cy Young winner. Cash is damned if he does and damned if he dont. Phil Phranchise lives on.
YANKEES #27 IN 08
I’m not comparing Kennedy to Chacon or Small directly, but I am using them as an example of how a small sample size, in both their cases 1 season, can make us think great things about a pitcher, when in actuality they stink like old cheese.
Kennedy is being given far too much credit, at this point. You can make the same claim for Joba and Phil, as well.
If this recent report is true about the Twins requesting kennedy instead of Hughes as a last ditch effort to get the Yankees back in, Cashman is even a bigger MORON then i thought. The Yankees have $80 million comin off the payroll after this year so how could money play a part. But in the past the idiot Cashman pays ridiculous money for Pavano, Wright and the moronic bid for Igawa. All these years of trading prospects and spending ridiculous money (RANDY Johnson-41 years old) and now they save money and not trade any prospects for the best pitcher in baseball who is 28 years old. At least 1 good thing comes out of all this. This idiot Cashman will be gone after this year when the Yankees dont make the playoffs. Hey and if the prospects dont pan out, he could always trade for Jared Wright. Your a joke Cashman!!
Tim Marchman’s had a different take on Santana’s win share value than Nate Silver’s and I think Marchman’s analysis is the more accurate one:
“While Santana is in some sense a replacement for Tom Glavine, and in a much more significant sense one for the aging Martinez, it’s probably best to think of him as replacing Mike Pelfrey, until yesterday the nominal fifth starter. This is a lot of why this is not just a transcendently good trade, but a savvy deal dollar-wise.
The difference between Santana and what the Mets could expect from Pelfrey and a revolving door of no. 6 starters is worth something like six to eight wins, depending on your terms. According to sabermetrician Tom Tango’s research, the going rate for a projected win above what a no. 6-type would likely do is $4.4 million.”
Santana will not be replacing Glavine in the rotation. Glavine is gone already. Santana will be replacing Mike Pelfrey or a free agent the mets would sing – either Lohse or Livan Hernandez.
Before they got Santana the mets were a worse team than last year because they would have had to replace Glavine with someone much worse. Now they go from that much worse pitcher to someone much better than Glavine.
That’s an enormous upswing for them.
Given the state of the mets pitching and their historic collapse Santana’s value to them is enormous. His acquisition will go a long way to erase the ghosts of last season.
I don’t think the mets players will be worried about blowing an enormous lead this year down the stretch with Santana throwing every 5th day.
http://www.nysun.com/article/70399?page_no=1
“He’s a better post-season pitcher than Santana and had an excellent year last year.”
Hey I love Andy Pettitte and all, but how do you know that he is a better postseason pitcher than Johan Santana? Just as an example, Pettitte has a 3.96 ERA in 218 postseason innings. Johan has a 3.97 ERA in 34 postseason innings. Santana simply hasn’t pitched enough innings in the postseason for you to make this determiantion yet.
Foe one thing, if Johan happened to be lucky enough to be a Yankee in recent years and logged dozens of more innings in the postseason, do you really think that his postseason ERA would still be 3.97? I suspect it would be much lower, based on the thousand regular season innings he has pitched in his career.
And secondly, aren’t you kind of implying that you would rather have Pettitte over Santana as a starter come playoff time? Seriously I know we all love Andy, but that’s absurd.
“kennedy better not stink it up this year or hes going to get boo’d out of yankee stadium”
God is there anyway to get rid of fans like this? I thought most of them left after arod won his MVP this year.
It’s funny to watch everyone with an anti-Cashman agenda ignore the conflicting story about the Twins asking for Wang.
If Cashman is such a moron for passing on this, is not Epstein also a moron?
Both the Yankees AND Red Sox passed on this “amazing” deal. Perhaps it wasn’t that great in the first place…
Kennedy has a ton of potential. No one thought that Aaron would be 10-0, or that Shawn would win as man games as he did. The Yankees were desprite and they threw what ever they could against the wall and they stuck. It was pure luck.
SOS,
December was a different animal. Had they made the deal in December, they would have signed Mike Cameron to play CF (1 year deal) and it would have been easier to absorb the hit.
Once Cameron left the market, they didn’t see a viable replacement for Melky. “Viable” meaning a good player on a short term deal, so as to not block Austin Jackson’s way to the majors.
As time went on, they became like enamored with the deal for a variety of reasons. The money, the lack of a replacement CF, the early reports of Hughes’ improved health, etc.
Making the deal yesterday would have created a hole in CF. A hole not easily filled and one that can’t be filled by Johnny Damon on an everyday basis.
Its one of those situations where once the Twins shopped the Yankees best offer, the Yankees were done with it.
In the long run, its hurt the Twins a helluva lot more than its hurt the Yankees.
“but I am using them as an example of how a small sample size, in both their cases 1 season, can make us think great things about a pitcher, when in actuality they stink like old cheese.”
Fortunately, we’re not thinking this stuff about Kennedy, Phil OR Joba based on their small major league sample size. We’re basing it on the scouting reports, college and minor league success, AND their major league track records. Small and Chacon had decent success, mediocre peripherals, and bad or mediocre stuff. And were inconsistent. And had maxed out their potential. None of those statements apply to these kids.
“So bascially Cashman said “we like having too many outfielders, and Ian Kennedy will be as good as Johan Santana at age 28.†”
No, I think he and hal (and ultmately Hank as well) thought tha $150 million and Ian and Melky and another prospect (Jackson?) weren’t worth Santana.
If you sign a 29 year old pitcher to a 7 year deal you do so knowing that the chances of him performing for the entire length of the contract are very small.
No 7 year pitching deal has worked out. Now no pitcher whose gotten a 7 year deal has been close to Santana so obviously this is a much diffent situation.
It’ll be interesting to see if and how the yankees try to go after Sabathia next year if he hits the market.
Am I so old-school that I find it disconcerting to boo my team instead of the opposition? When did it become fashionable to berate your own guys? I just do not get it. What is so great about booing your own guys? Can anyone explain this to me? I can understand that as a fan we like to feel some of the “power” but booing one’s own strikes me as not only disloyal but stupid. No one flourishes in negativity. I am not saying to be a pollyana about it but success comes from working hard and practice — lots of practice and some praise. Does booing and being negative and critical create anything worthwhile or of value? I really would like to understand this phenomena. When I was growing up we never even thought of booing our own.
If the twins asked for Wang, then this is a moot discussion. But if it was Melky, Kennedy, and any-shade-other-than-blue chip prospect, there’s a discussion warranted.
“Your a joke Cashman!!”
Here’s another idiot who chooses to ignore the Wang + IPK report to bash Cashman. And even if that offer is true, I would say SJ44 has illustrated quite well why the yankees passed on that offer.
Less enamored, not like enamored. Man, we need an editing button! lol
I also think that Cashman and Epstein played this one well, Minnesota simply overplayed their hand. Too many questions regarding Santana’s performance in the second half of last season. Time to give the home grown talent a chance.
What a ridiculous trade. I sure am glad I’m not a Minnesota Twins fan. I’d either be suicidal or homicidal after getting that crap in return for Santana.
Larry Jaffe
No you are not old school. I dislike the booing of your own players as well.
If the report was true that the Twins dropped the asking price, IMO, this needs to be done.
But there was no telling if the Twins would then shop it around for boston’s last bid, and the bidding starts all over again.
Be interesting if the Mets can’t sign Santana now.
cutting and pasting my post from another thread:
the price was ridiculously too high, and came back to being somewhat realistic. to say you’re paying for a one year rental is not true. the way i look at it is similar to a posting fee for a japanese or foreign player, but in this case the posting fee is players/prospects as opposed to money, making it more difficult for anyone to judge which is the better offer.
i also think a lot of trades these days are based on what percentage of what another team has to offer are they obtaining by getting rid of a star, without looking at the real values of the players. X% of yankees farm vs X% of mets or boston farm. glad they didn’t make an offer in the end.
i’ve got to admit, SJ always brings it back down into perspective…
I wonder if the Twins know something about Johan that the rest of us don’t.
These deals were only rumored. Who knows, maybe Santana turns down the Mets offer. This deal is not done yet.
Here is my overall problem with everyone getting on Cashman for not doing this deal. Why should the Yankees have to give up MORE than any other team tomake this deal? On paper the deal the Yankees were asked about be it IPK, Melky and prospects or Phil, Melky and prospects is far above what the Mets ended up giving up. So once again the Yankees would have had to pay more not only with dollars but with players. I for one an tired of teams taking advantage and asking for more from the Yankees then getting less with other teams.
I say kudos to Cashman and the Steinbrenner brothers for finally saying no we are not going to do this anymore. And if it is true that the Red Sox pulled out BOTH Ellsbury and Lester as well they too would have given up way more then the Mets and been taken advantage of as well.
People need to take a look at this logically and not just with a win at all costs, get all stars for every single position and every single person in the rotation, pay whatever it takes.
If all we had to give up was Kennedy, Melky, and 1 or 2 prospects than we messed up. Since when does money matter. Santana, Wang, Petitte, Hughes, Chamberlain (and Moose as a 6th) is as good or better than the Sox rotation. I am extremely disappointed we didn’t make this deal.
Whats the Real Story,
If they were asking for Wang and Kennedy, I’d say no three times and promise Smith that I would urinate on his foot the next time I saw him.
Hey jennifer,
You’re right, the 17 SO game does skew the stat. However, even if you drop out the 17 SO and the 8 IP he had in that particular game, his K/9IP is still a very awesome 9.30 for the second half of the season, which is equal to his K/9IP in the first half of the season. Not many starters can average more than one strike out per inning, so it’s impressive whether you include that game or not.
And I would also like to highlight that the 8 IP, 17 K game (which happened in the second half of the season) as further evidence that Santana is just as dominant as he has always been. How many pitchers this year had a game even close to that domination?
And I also want to mention that I hope I’m not coming across like some bitter dude who is nitpicking about stats. My main gripe is this: Peter implied that Santana’s performance in the 2nd half of the season was cause for all sorts of red flags. And I firmly believe that he is wrong. There are minimal red flags about Santana’s performance. At the very least, the Yankees and Red Sox didn’t make their decisions based on thinking that Santana is no longer an ace and instead will put up a boring 4.04 ERA next year. It was about the money and prospects.
To say that Ian Kennedy has a “small sample size” of work is sort of meaningless.
He’s 23 and attended college. How many 23 year old college drafted pitchers have anything more than a “small sample size” of professional work?
And Kennedy doesn’t have a “small sample size” with respect to his prospect status.
He’s been on scout’s radars since he was in high school. He was one of the most dominant high school pitchers in southern california history and that says a lot. That’s perhaps the most competative high school baseball in the country.
Then he went on to be one of the most dominant pitchers in the history of USC – a baseball powerhouse, particularly for pitchers.
Finally he moves through three levels of minor league ball in one year and pitches in the majors before September.
Kennedy may not have a dominant fastball but his track record of performance as a prospect – his “sample size” of performance for his age – is absolutely impeccable.
Larry Jaffe: Who knows
I’m personally a new fan, and I too simply can’t see why any real fan would ever boo their own players
With fans like that, who needs enemies.
I think many underestimate what IPK could bring to this team. He’ll never be a flame throwing ace but by all reports the man is a smart pitcher. Over the life span of a major league career, I’ll take a guy who knows how to pitch rather than a guy who can throw it through a wall.
Booing your own players makes no sense at all. Why don’t you just sit there silently if you don’t like the guy?
If I were the Mets right now, hearing the supposed deals that the Twins were asking for from the Yanks and Sox, I would be quite nervous about this deal.
Both teams had plenty of time to have their scouts sit through all the video of the Santana games. If they didn’t I would be surprised. If they did that and didn’t even budge on making an offer, isn’t that a red flag?
The bone chip issue is something that should also be remembered. If a pitcher has bone chip problems, even if they are removed, the problem comes back.
I don’t really know which report to believe, but if the Twins were willing to go with Kennedy and Melky isn’t that saying something good about the two of them?
Also, anyone who boos Kennedy off the field because of him not being traded for Santana – something that he had no say in the matter – is not a fan. I am sorry, but there is no way a true fan of a team would place the blame of a trade not being done on a player. Yankee “fans” who do that are the ones who give all Yankee fans a bad name.
Thanks Jennifer.. good to hear that.
i am a red sox fan that enjoys reading this blog solely for the expert opinions of sj44. sj, ever think of writing a book. i’d be first in line!
“Melky’s career HAS been decided. He is what he is. Plus defense in center, pedestrian at the plate. He’s not going to find a surge of power, or patience. People who believe he still has a lot of upside left are deluding themselves.”
He’s 23 and his career HAS been decided? You lose all credibility when you make ignorant comments like this. I guess when Beckett was 23 his career was decided also. Same thing for Posada who was in the minors by the way when he was 23. In fact if everyone’s career is decided by age 23 then there are a host of players in the minors and majors who should just retire right now because they’ll never be better than what they are at age 23.
Your statement should get credited for being the most asinine in the history of the blog and that’s saying a lot.
The notion of booing kennedy because he wasn’t traded has to be one of the most irrational statements ever posted on this board.
And that says a lot.
Jon-
6 years of Kennedy at below 5 Era or 4 Years of Santana giving you 4 Hall of Fame years.If he was with the Yankees he would have won the Cy Young.He had more strikouts then Sabthia and more innings then Beckett and his Era was not far from them,if he had Wang record of 19 wins he would have won on a better team.
Is it universally accepted to use ‘your’ in place of ‘you’re’?
“Your an idiot”
“Your right”
I’m not patting myself on the back here, I’m just letting it be known I too never boo’d my Yanks. Even at A-Rod’s lowest points, I still gave him a handclap. Won’t boo ‘em, never will.
Now that the Santana drama is (almost) over, I’m just watchin’ that countdown clock to pitchers and catchers and waiting to be there at the stadium for opening day….
What has been the Yankees greatest need the last few years in the playoffs? Pitching..Yes its great the Yankees are developing their prospects and hopefully they will be able to contribute someday. But when the best pitcher in baseball is available and you havent gotten out of the first round of the playoffs in 3 years because of your pitching, it would make sense to aquire the best pitcher out there even at the cost of a couple of PROSPECTS, prospects being the key word. I would have giving up hughes for Santana but i understood the reasoning giving up Hughes and then doing the extension for Santana. But when the Twins came back to the Yankees and asked for Kennedy instead, to me that was a no brainer in my mind to accept that deal. No brainer is what Cashman is. This is not Wright, Pavano, 41 year old randy johnson or Igawa, this is Johan Santana.
If the Twins had any health concerns at all with Johan, don’t you think they would have jumped immediately on the Yankees or Red Sox offer of Hughes/Melky or Lester or Ellsbury back in December??
The reason they had to settle on the Mets crappy package, or consider a lesser Yankee package headed by Kennedy is because they overplayed their hand. It’s not because Santana has some crazy secret injury.
Kennedy, Cabrera, and a prospect???? That’s a deal that you have to make. I can’t believe Cashman turned that down. What the F.
Young, highly rated pitching…
A 1000 run offense…
A new manager with something to prove and the smarts to make it happen…
Last season in the most storied park in baseball history…
And we’re sitting here whining about Johan Santana????
Come on…
21 days until pitchers and catchers, and I personally can’t wait.
Thanks guys, it is good to know that not everyone is a “boo bird”
and you’re is a contraction for you are
your is possessive pronoun.
Yeah it pissed me off when Yankee fans booed A-Rod in 2006. What the heck is wrong with those people??
i forget, which bandwagon is everyone jumping on now? is it “the yankees are terrible, how could we start the season so badly” one, or is it the “i always knew we could pull this off, we’re gunna make the postseason” one? oh, i remember now, it’s the “cashman’s an idiot because he didn’t pull off the mythical santana trade that some reporter said the twins wanted.” how long before all these people are back on the “yankees are great, i knew our young guys were great all along” wagon.
PittsburghYankeeFan
15 days 22 hours till pitchers and catchers
Just a thought
Everyone says it is vital for the dal that the Mets extend Santan’s contract. But suppose they don’t. Wouldn’t they be better off with a 1st round and 1st round supplemental pick in the draft than the one decent outfielder and 3 average pitchers they sent to ‘Sota?
For that matter could the Yankees do better with one season of Johan, then a 1st rnd and supp pick, for a revised offer of Kennedy, Melky and a minor leaguer (assuming it isnt a top guy but someone like Marquez who was mentioned in earlier talks )?
Seems to me that with the recent track record of success in the draft, and willingness to overpay at every slot, that the Yankees could have ended up with another 2 future studs even if they lost Santana after a yr.
It would have given us a yr to find out what he could do in NY, and Santana might have gone for it since he could get the free agent millions in 1 yr. If he is confident he can do it in NY he could even push his eventual salary higher.
Brian M.
Santana won’t waive his no trade clause if the Mets don’t extend him. If no deal it made within the next 2 days. Santana stays with the Twins and the saga continues.
“But when the best pitcher in baseball is available and you havent gotten out of the first round of the playoffs in 3 years because of your pitching, it would make sense to aquire the best pitcher out there even at the cost of a couple of PROSPECTS, prospects being the key word”
You do realize that the best pitcher in baseball has never made it out of the first round of the playoffs right? You also realize that the best pitcher in baseball pitched twice against the Yankees in 2004 and the Twins still LOST the series.
It’s unbelievable how people fail to realize those two truths about the best pitcher in baseball.
Let’s look at Pedro Martinez and use him as an example.
He signed a 4 year, 52 million dollar deal with the Mets. He has been healthy for about half the time.
He is now an 84 MPH, 5 inning pitcher, using guile and a great change to get his 5 innings in. He no longer is a dominant pitcher.
Pedro was more dominant than Santana in his prime.
My point, pitchers get hurt. Pedro is just in year 4 of a deal and he is no longer a front of the rotation, innings eating guy.
Now, we have folks looking to give 7 years to a similar pitcher. Fastball, change up, slider. Some warning signs of wear and tear last year.
Its not an easy call to sign a pitcher for 7 years. Some, less emotional types would call it crazy.
My point is, there is no way you can predict the long term futures of pitchers. Unfortunately, when you have a 6-7 year offer staring you in the face, that’s what teams have to do.
Again, look back on the guys who got these type of deals and tell me which one’s worked out. The odds aren’t in favor of the team giving the money.
Its not just the first 1-2 years of his deal. Its looking at the entire deal.
Its why I can see why teams such as the Yankees, Angels and Red Sox backed off. The money, the prospects and the long term health questions simply don’t warrant making a 6-7 year committment to a pitcher.
I’m a little shocked at you here SJ since it’s a big reversal from earlier in the off season when you were very pro trading for Johan.
I remember posts from you going nuts in here last season when Wang was getting lit up in the playoffs and about other pitchers on the staff who would go out there and get lit up.
All of a sudden you seem to be this calm voice of reason about sticking with the kids and I respect that, but I also think you’ve changed your tune somewhat in the process.
This team needs a mix of kids and vets. The Dynasty teams had staffs fronted by Cone, Key, Wells, Clemens, etc. who were all trades or free agent signings.
For those of you who believe we won all those world series because of the kids I can assure you that Andy Pettite didn’t start 162 games a season.
We made smart trades and smart signings and acquired vets who wanted to win and wanted to be paid what they felt they were worth.
Any way you cut this up, Cashman and the Yankees made a huge mistake not acquiring Johan when the package price was reduced.
IPK, Melky and whoever the other player in the minors was, is exactly the deal the team needed to make to get the best left handed starter in baseball.
And don’t anyone give me the underlying injury concern.
If there’s a problem with Johan, he won’t pass his physical. Even the Mets won’t turn a blind eye to a problem and give him over 100 million.
If he passes his physical with flying colors, it only makes the Yankees look more foolish here.
Cashman and the Yankees finally had the depth in the organization to make a trade like this and not set the franchise back.
They backed away and now we’re looking at a rotation with a shot over the hill starter in Mussina and 3 youngsters who have innings caps plus a bullpen that is completely unsettled.
I never thought I’d see the day that Latroy Hawkins was in our pen. Who’s next, Arthur Rhodes?
If Klapisch is accurate, this was a big mistake. Cashman and the organization married the prospects.
He could have kept Joba and Hughes and added a 29 year old Johan to our rotation.
This was the deal we had to make.
Do I think the team will survive? Yes. I’m a fan.
I’m just very upset and confused as why all of a sudden a perenial Cy Young award winner under 30 who pitches 200 innnings and K’s 200 guys a season, gets passed up when we’ll give Clemens 25 million and Randy Johnson all that money.
You can say well Clemens and Johnson were the old mistakes we won’t make again, but I can assure that if this team misses the playoffs, we’ll make a bigger mistake and give CC Sabathia the same money we could have given Johan.
The Yankees can try this new fiscal restraint thing, but if the team doesn’t win, it will go back to business as usual and I think it’s spurious that all of a sudden in 2008, we tighten the purse strings over an under 30 Ace pitcher.
As for replacing Melky, it would be a hole. I love Melky. But the worst case scenario is we go get Corey Patterson until Austin Jackson was ready.
There were options if we lost Melky in this deal.
If Klapisch is right, the Yankees made a big mistake.
As for Cashman’s job security, I don’t really care. I want the team to win and I want them to make good moves.
I don’t think this non-move is a good move.
Hopefully, IPK comes out and pitches gang busters.
If he doesn’t and we’re looking for a starter at the deadline, then yesterday was a huge mistake.
I hope we’re not trading IPK for a Blanton type when we could have traded him for Johan in January.
even if Santana did stay for one year only, there’s no guarantee about the first round draft pick.
If a team with a crappy record signed him, like say the white sox, the white sox would only have to give up a 2nd round pick. This is because the first 16 picks in the draft are protected and cannot be lost as free agent compensation.
So in the offchance that a team with a poor record (and so their first round pick would be in the protected range) signs Santana, that strategy would backfire on the Mets. It’s not a sure thing to assume that a team with an awesome record (and so their first round draft pick is unprotected) would be the one to sign Santana.
Hypothetical question:
If you were Santana, how much would you ask from the Metsies?
For starters, how about 240M for 8 years (30M per) with an opt out clause? What’s Omar gonna say, “See ya!”?
Has anyone thought that maybe Santana wont do so well being that he will be pitching in
A.New York(pressure packed)
B.Cold weather in home games. No longer in the room temperatured dome.
I know that Johnson had back problems and all. But it did drop his velocity even when he felt good. I think that its not a guarrantee that Santana doesnt start breaking down due to pitching more in the cold or maybe choking under the high expectations and critisism of New York.
I agree with you Joe G. We can make it out of the first round because of pitching. When it comes time for the playoffs we need more shut down pitchers. I think we make the playoffs with Kennedy, but we win in the post season with Santana. In the playoffs, you need three great starter to advance. Our top three don’t match up too well against the SOx, but if we add Santana we match up real well with them.
If the deal was Kennedy, Cabrera, +1 or +2 .. I have been saying for days that YOU HAVE to do this.. but people here on this blog told me I was dreaming, saying the Twins would not except that deal..
Lets let the truth come out, if that is the truth.. I am going to be VERY angry.
Stop questions Johans health, all you can do is speculate.. Maybe Wang’s arm is going down too.. after all his September was pathetic at best, and his playoff performance? He MUST BE Injured!
Bill Smith already overplayed his hand, and Cashman is overplaying his right now by not taking that trade if it was in fact, true!
It’s remarkable how so many yankee fans have become so spoiled.
It’s as if people want a guarantee that the team will win the world series every year at the start of the season.
No level of uncertainty is acceptable. If there is any potential weakness money has to be thrown at it and moves have to be made.
Fix the bullpen now, fix first base, get an ace, get a new center fielder, etc…
No matter how much talent you acquire, there’s no guarantee at all. There are always risks and uncertainties. Talent increases the probability of winning but its just that – an enhanced probability.
That’s why while it may sound obvious Jeter is spot on when he says over and over “you have to play the games.”
If the yankees get Santana and their post season offense continues to be abysmal (which it has been since 2004 – not just bad, abysmal) they’ll just continue to lose.
This team has enough talent. It hasn’t performed as it was expected, no matter how many new veterans have been added every year.
“You do realize that the best pitcher in baseball has never made it out of the first round of the playoffs right? You also realize that the best pitcher in baseball pitched twice against the Yankees in 2004 and the Twins still LOST the series.
It’s unbelievable how people fail to realize those two truths about the best pitcher in baseball.”
Yeah ok that’s how it worked out, but you can’t deny that Santana gives you a much better chance to win the series than another pitcher, simply because Santana is the best pitcher in baseball. Minnesota would have been swept in 2004 without Santana.
He would have a much much more talented 24 guys around him in NY. It’s a much different story from the Twins team where he rarely got any run support. His chances of winning any single game would be much better simply due to the better run support.
Hey, I’m also glad the yankees kept Hughes. But Santana is awesome and he would be a big boost come playoff time.
But pitching depth is also very important, and I think the Yankees have enough depth to do well in the playoffs with Wang-Pettitte-Hughes-Joba in the rotation in October.
We are never going to know if the “reduced” asking price was IPK, Melky and Tabata or IPK, Wang and whoever- so it useless to debate how “dumb” the front office was.
My bigger issue is with the sense that we are somehow in much better shape in terms of starting pitching this year than last. Assuming IPK, Joba and Hughes can all hit their innings cap, and stay healthy and effective in so doing, we are still looking at a maximum of 60-70 starts from the trio. Even if we again assume Wang can make 30 and Pettitte in the same neighborhood, we are still looking at 30-40 starts from Mussina, Karstens, and any other AAA call-up. That strikes me as being astoundingly similar to last year. And when you factor in the likely possibility of at least one injury and some ineffectiveness from at least one of the 3 youngsters- I think there is a real chance that that number balloons. In my eyes, getting quality starts from the rotation is going to be the issue this year.
LOL…I love how people are now saying Cashman has fallen in love with the prospects. Two minutes it ago it was Cashman is relying on the veterans too much. Make up your mind.
The Twins screwed up royally, though the Minnesota Star-Trib is claiming that Santana said he wouldn’t waive his no-trade if not dealt by Tuesday. He’s denied similar claims in the past, but who knows. If it’s not true, the Twins were betting off holding onto him until the trade deadline.
I’ve said it repeatedly, I changed my mind from December. Last I checked, its not a crime.
The more time passed, and the options for CF dwindled, I looked at the entire package (prospects, contract, luxury tax, etc) and felt it was too much.
Even in the end, Smith asked for more from the Yankees for Santana than he got from the Mets.
To me, its too much. If he wanted to take Austin Jackson, Jeff Marquez, Alan Horne and Zach McAllister, that’s a similar package (talent-wise) than the Mets offer.
Taking two players from your 25 man roster, plus two prospects is not a similar offer. Its why Cashman turned it down and rightly so.
As far as, “if he’s not healthy, he won’t pass his physical”, clearly you have never been involved in player physicals.
His arm could be falling off and he will pass his physical.
Pedro passed his physical with the Mets despite a partially torn rotator cuff.
When a team gets a guy they really want, he passes his physical.
Whatever physical ailments he has (if any), the team will convince themselves they can rehab him.
That’s what happened with Pedro and the Mets and that’s what will happen here if Santana has some issues.
“If the yankees get Santana and their post season offense continues to be abysmal (which it has been since 2004 – not just bad, abysmal) they’ll just continue to lose.”
I agree it was disgusting.
However, Wang was not so fantastic either. That was 2 starts, with Johan we would at least have had another option. I’d go Johan any day. Yankees +johan vs Sox +Beckett … I would put my money on Santana.
I’m content with going to war with 90% of what constitutes this Yankee team as it is now knowing that the other 10% will shake out at some point in late March either through the spring training process or a deal based on other teams shaping their rosters and a missing piece seen by Brian Cashman.
And if the rumoured offer was Wang and Kennedy + others (as reported here http://www.nydailynews.com/spo.....tml?page=1 ), would you still do it? Would you trade 2 starters for 1?
SJ44
“Even in the end, Smith asked for more from the Yankees for Santana than he got from the Mets.”
What does that have to do with anything? Are you measuring the deal for the Yankees by the worst possible deal from another team? You are bright enough to realize that you can’t do that.
If the deal was true leading with Kennedy, it is a crime that Cashman did not make the deal!
Unless, they know something we don’t. It has to be something we don’t know.. because Cashman has to be an utter moron to not make that deal! However, his past results with regards to locking up pitching makes me think that he just might be a moron.
“I think we make the playoffs with Kennedy, but we win in the post season with Santana.”
Santana himself has NEVER won in the postseason, but let’s just ignore the FACTS and keep stating that Santana would have pushed the Yankees over the top.
Santana has been the best pitcher in baseball for the past five years and has exactly zero rings to show for it. Zero. In 2004 Santana started twice against the Yankees in the postseason. He pitched a total of 12 innings and the Twins lost the series. This is a fact. As good as Santana is he alone wouldn’t necessarily put the Yankees over the top.
No long-term, $100mil+ deal has ever worked out for a pitcher and the Santana deal won’t work out, either. While the Mets may not have overpaid in terms of talent, they will most definitely overpay in terms of money, and they will regret it over the long term. Santana did not look like an “ace” in the second half of 2007 and absolutely no one can be sure whether that was just an aberration or an indication of a problem brewing. The posters who have suggested that Cashman’s butt is on the line, and all, may be right, but I hope not. I hope not because, if that is true it only proves that the Steinbrenner sons are just as short-sighted as the old man. I figure it took tremendous fortitude on Cashman’s part to stand up to Hank’s bluster this post-season and he deserves his props for that. Johan Santana will win 12-15 more games than Phil Hughes over the next five seasons. Heck, I’ll bet he’s gonna win only 15-20 games more than Ian Kennedy. Great pitcher, sure, but absolutely NOT worth the money and talent. Period.
I like Kennedy and I’ve always been a big Melky guy, but if Cash turned up his nose to those two and a prospect for arguably the best pitcher in the sport, he’s got rocks in his head.
Either that or he’s more focused on polishing up his payroll-cutting bonafides than he is on increasing our chances of winning it all in ’08 and ’09. Which do you think looks better on Cash’s resume when he’s scanning the want ads next fall:
1. GM who cut payroll and developed a nice young pitching staff.
or
2. GM who for the 10th year in a row through money around like a drunken sailor.
And if Santana’s extension was the problem, why not make the deal without it? If he has a big year this year, he’d still want to stay in NY and we’d still be the team with most money to sign him. If his arm falls off, we lose some decent prospects. So what?
I would not trade Wang + Kennedy. No way.
“I think that its not a guarrantee that Santana doesnt start breaking down due to pitching more in the cold or maybe choking under the high expectations and critisism of New York.”
Pitchers don’t break down physically because of high expectations.
This is so funny reading these remarks!
Rule #1: The Yanks were never going to get Santana from The Twinkies short of Hughes & Kennedy & Melky & Plus. (Because the Twinkie Fans Hate the Yanks!)
Rule #2: The Red Sox were never going to get Santana from The Twinkies short of Ellsbury & SP & Pedora & Plus. (Because the Twinkie Fans Hate Boston!)
Rule #3: Twinkies wanted to up ante with Mets only in getting Yanks & Red Sox to jump back into the deal. Twinkies expected both LA teams to be in the running to start and perhaps a Detroit or Texas team as well. They were wrong.
Rule #4: The Yanks & Red Sox have other options including Kazmir, and other teams later in the season when pending FA SP’s may come available.
Rule #5: Neither the Yanks or Red Sox wanted him now, but both didn’t want the other team to have him. Both are pleased the Mets have him. Both wished he were a FA next year, but both were concerned in that scenario that Santana would hit $30M/yr for 6+ yrs. So ultimately, both cheered the Mets onward.
“According to sources familiar with the entire negotiations, after the Red Sox removed Lester, the Twins called the Yankees back and proposed a scenario in which Hughes would not have to be part of the deal. Instead, they asked for Chien-Ming Wang and Ian Kennedy. The Yankees flatly rejected that, leaving the Mets as the Twins’ only alternative.”
Well, I tend to think that is BS. If it is true, I would of told Bill Smith to take a hike.
But I don’t get the comparison of packages of that vs what the Mets offered. The Kennedy + Cabrera deal would still be better than the Mets deal.
I am going on the Subway shortly, I am going to get 4 complete strangers and see if I can trade them to the Twins for Nathan… Mets package is pure GARBAGE.
keep it coming, SJ… you are helping me calm down a little bit.
i’m not against going forward with the holy trinity, plus the three vets… i just think that with the depth we have in the organization, especially in reference to young pitching compared to the young positional prospects, we could have afforded to take this specific risk… its not just any pitcher, this is Johan, and he’s the ONLY one I would have moved Hughes or IPK for, really.
but now that we have the distractions out of the way, i’m very optimistic going forward about this season, and it should be fun to watch the kids play a full season.
Raymagnetic,
C’mon. Given a choice you’d rather have Kennedy (or Hughes, or Wang, or Joba) over Santana in a do or die playoff game. I don’t believe that.
If you want to argue that the money’s too much, or that he’s an injury risk, fine. But arguing that the guy doesn’t make us better, over the long haul or in a short series, is lunacy.
“He would have a much much more talented 24 guys around him in NY. It’s a much different story from the Twins team where he rarely got any run support. His chances of winning any single game would be much better simply due to the better run support. ”
Really, because in the 2004 Series the Twins scored 2,6,4,5 runs. Not exactly zero run support. Were the Yankees starters demonstrably better that year?
Game 1 – Santana – Moose
Game 2 – Radke – Leiber
Game 3 – Silva – Kevin Brown
Game 4 – Santana – Vasquez
wang + kennedy + $150M, i dont blame them for not doing it!
Another question for the board- what happens if we do get to the playoffs this year. For that to happen, one has to assume that the trio will have hit their innings cap but that time. Then what do you do? My guess is you ignore the cap and throw them anyway, but it seems to defeat the purpose of protecting their arms.
I’m not criticizing the team for not making the deal, but I think the limitations on innings on 3 guys is going to make navigating a 162 game schedule and possible playoff series tough. I think a midyear acquisition of a mediocre innings-eater is going to have to be the course of action.
Not as bad as booing Jeter and Rivera. Sad to say. But we will always have bandwagon jumpers. I heard the Mets are accepting applications. For those who dog Kennedy. His numbers in the minors were better than Jobas and Hughes. He is being compared to a young Mussina. Is that really that bad. For those in love with the strikouts per inning. Maddox seems to be doing quite well spotting his pitches.
“Santana himself has NEVER won in the postseason, but let’s just ignore the FACTS and keep stating that Santana would have pushed the Yankees over the top.
Santana has been the best pitcher in baseball for the past five years and has exactly zero rings to show for it. Zero. In 2004 Santana started twice against the Yankees in the postseason. He pitched a total of 12 innings and the Twins lost the series. This is a fact. As good as Santana is he alone wouldn’t necessarily put the Yankees over the top.”
First of all you are 100% wrong about Santana never winning in the postseason. He shutout the Yankees over 7 innings in game 1 of the 2004 ALDS and got the win. How could he have possibly pitched better to make you happy in that game? He gave the Twins a great start to that series, but the 24 men around him weren’t good enough to finish the job. In 12 IP in the series, Johan gave up 1 ER. What else do you want him to do??
I know you are basically saying that Johan alone doesn’t guarantee you the series, and that’s true. However, with the Yankees offense behind him, and other guys by the name of Pettitte/Rivera/Joba there is a much better chance that the Yankees win in October.
If the Yankees got a 12IP/1ER line out of Wang in 2007 the Yankees go on to round 2. Ditto if Johnson pitched like that in 2005 or 2006. Do you really doubt that?
Also, it takes 25 men to win a ring. If Santana is one of those 25 men, then your team has a better shot, not a worse shot. What, should we instead target pitchers from the 2006 Cardinals since they do have a ring? Let’s go sign that great postseason clutch pitcher Jeff Weaver! He has a ring!
Johan Santana had bone chips removed from his elbow last year. Bone chips are caused by pitching either too much or applying too much strain with certain pitches. Bone chips are more of a periodic condition than a once & done. A slider or split finger pitch is usually the most damaging to this condition. When bone chips are ignored too long, Tommy John surgery usually results from ligament damage.
Santana has shown signs of a more damaged condition since he did away with his slider the 2nd half of last year. Couple that with throwing 230+ innings each of the last 4 years in the AL and perhaps he is injured. To lose ones top prospects and mega dollars on an uncertainty is something the Yanks & Red Sox did not need to do.
“If the deal was true leading with Kennedy, it is a crime that Cashman did not make the deal!”
Not really. If Hal said they’re not spending $150 million on a pitcher then that’s the end of the story.
This deal has never, ever been only about talent or only about money.
It’s both. And while we’ll never know what trade proposals were offerred or if Bill Smith was even serious about the last minute deals he offerred to the sox and yankees, we do know with a fair amount of certainty that Hal did not want to spend this much money as part of a trade transaction.
Hank himself said this over and over.
One of the owners really did not want to make this deal based on financial considerations.
In the end Hal changed Hank’s mind. If Hal and Hank wanted to do this deal it would have happenned regardless of what Cash said.
This is not simply a GM deal. Any deal this big always has the owners actively involved.
One doesn’t have to be a whiner to question whether Cashman has become so invested in his farm system, he’s lost sight of the larger picture and that his obsession with proving he can win without a large payroll has clouded his judgment.
The Yankees founded their 1996-2001 dynasty by acquiring pitchers from outside their organization.
1) Key- free agent
2) Cone- trade
3) Wells- free agent
4) Clemens- trade
5) Mussina- free agent
There’s no reason why the Yankees should hold on to ALL their prospects. THe reason why you culivate prospects in the first place is because not all of them will fulfill expectations. The key is to trade those you think won’t develop while their value is still high.
Both the Tigers and the Mariners dramatically improved this off-season (the latter by signing Silva and acquiring Bedard) The Red Sox will also be better next season with full seasons from Ellsbury, Lester, and 150+ innings from Buccholz.
If the Yankees think they’re going to waltz into the playoffs again with three kids capped from between 150-190 innings, and bullpen of Farnsworth, Hawkins, and more kids, then they’re suffering from as much hubris as the Bush administration did when it thought flowers awaited them in Iraq.
I don’t expect a WS every year. And I don’t whine when they fail to produce one.
All I ask of the FO is that they do everything in their power to field the team with the best chance of competing for one.
By refusing the package, Klapish reported, Smith offered, Brian Cashman has violated this trust.
“Johan Santana had bone chips removed from his elbow last year.”
No he didn’t. He had bone chips removed in 2003. The next season he won the cy young and then went on his great 4 season run.
“By refusing the package, Klapish reported, Smith offered, Brian Cashman has violated this trust.”
But the point is is that we have no idea if this is true.
I could easily see Bill Smith leaking this rumor to make himself look better, for instance. That way he could say, hey I was being flexible but the yankees just said no so I had to accept the mets terrible offer.
And again, Hal may have just said no on the money side of things.
We just don’t know.
“Raymagnetic,
C’mon. Given a choice you’d rather have Kennedy (or Hughes, or Wang, or Joba) over Santana in a do or die playoff game. I don’t believe that.
If you want to argue that the money’s too much, or that he’s an injury risk, fine. But arguing that the guy doesn’t make us better, over the long haul or in a short series, is lunacy.”
What I’m saying is that Santana as good as he is has never, won a WS ring. It’s a fact. Actually the only pitcher who seems like he’s a guarantee right now is Josh Beckett.
Even if the Yankees had gotten Santana there’s no guarantee he would help the Yankees win. That’s all I’m saying.
this wasnt about just this year, this was a critical decision for the organization for the next 5 years. They calculate that keeping wang, hughes and kennedy they will get much better results over that time then they would have with Santana and paying him $150M plus luxury tax. Wang, Joba, Hughes and Kennedy will cost the yanks around $100M together in that time and cover 4/5ths of the rotation!.
“First of all you are 100% wrong about Santana never winning in the postseason.”
By saying he’s never won in the postseason I’m saying he’s never won a ring.
If the Yanks could have gotten Santana for Kennedy/Melky/prospect, they should have done it. I agree that the Yanks were smart not to give away the farm for Santana, but I think at some point they may have lost sight of Santana’s value. He is a two-time Cy Young winner in his prime after all (he’s actually younger than Erik Bedard!), and trading your third-best pitching prospect and Melky to acquire him makes sense. Adding a true ace to a team that desperately needs one, while keeping your top two prospects, seems like a very good deal to me.
CB
I heard on Fox Sports yesterday that it was last year on the bone chips. My bad!
You lost me when you said Carlos Silva improves a team. Carlos Silva stinks.
Why is it that Buchholz can be penciled in for 150 innings, yet any of the young Yankee pitchers are “question marks”?
Last I checked the Yankees signed 5 free agents this off-season. All of whom were the best at their respective positions in the marketplace. The best starter (Pettitte), the best closer (Rivera), the best catcher (Posada), the best backup catcher (Molina) and the best player in the game (Arod).
Just because they were their own players doesn’t minimize it. They were free agents, open to sign with any other team, and it cost the Yankees over 400 million bucks.
Not exactly “violating the trust” of the fans, is it?
The front office does do everything in its power to improve the club. Its already a better team than it was last year. Mainly, because they signed their own FA’s and the younger arms have such high ceilings.
Don’t let not getting Santana blind you to the work that was done this off-season.
maybe it’s my computer, but the new site design makes for difficult reading. The black against grey is hard to pick up. Anyone else having this problem? Sorry if this has been mentioned already. I’m having a difficult time reading text here.
“Really, because in the 2004 Series the Twins scored 2,6,4,5 runs. Not exactly zero run support.”
I did not say that the Twins scored few runs in the 2004 playoffs. What I said is that, in general, Santana’s run support as a Twin has been low.
My point was that in any single game that Santana pitches, the Yankees chances to win would be really high since their offense is much more potent than the Twins. Look at 2007 – Santana got a full 2 runs fewer in run support each game than Wang or Beckett did. That’s why he was “only” 15-13 with the W-L record. If you put santana in ANY game, regular season or postseason, with the Yankee fofense behind him, and you will be much more likely to win that game rather than having some other pitcher start that game.
One more thing to add to the mix, if Hank Steinbrenner wanted Santana, Cashman would have made a deal. The Yankees don’t want to commit $140 million to a pitcher.
…I just want to re-post something that, in retrospect, probably should have been posted here but that I accidentally posted on today’s guest blog comments section:
We don’t really know what the Twins did–we don’t really know if they actually reduced their demands to Kennedy, Melky, and a top prospect (whoever that is/could be…for all we know, it’s a prospect the Yankees are really, really high on who was never previously on the table). We don’t know whether Hal Steinbrenner chose to step in and say, “We’re drawing the budget line here; no matter who the Twins want for him, we’re not trading for Santana.â€
I, personally, will concede that–if I’m in Cashman’s position–based on all of the information that I myself have, if Smith calls me and offers Santana for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and either Jairo Heredia, Dellin Betances, or Jesus Montero, I might have a very difficult time turning down that deal. Sure, you’d be giving a young, high-upside player in any of the three I mentioned, but I think that the Yankees system is deep enough to withstand such a blow.
But that’s just it: we all have very limited information, even in this day-and-age. As much as we think we know about prospects from websites like BA, BP, and writers like Keith Law, we still lack the resources (particularly in terms of scouting, and a team’s own internal evaluation of their developmental and coaching staff) to make true, sure-fire evaluations of all the players involved. Say what you want about “objective†analysis, but I firmly believe that no one knows their players more than the team they belong to, and while there might be a tendency to overrate or overvalue a team’s own assets, I still think that tendency is overcome by the sheer volume of information a team has on its players.
This isn’t to say that a team cannot be wrong or evaluate its assets poorly; a cursory look at MLB history (or even Johan Santana himself) will show that teams can, and have, missed big-time on their own talents. But I definitely think that MLB teams are certainly in a *much* better position than you, I, or even someone like Keith Law–despite his resources–to evaluate the moving pieces in a deal like this.
And when I say the sheer volume of information a team has on its own players, I do think that includes a great deal of unique information that other teams may not be privy to–for example, how that player responds to coaching, how that player goes about his day-to-day business outside of the stadium, how hard that player works or is willing to work, the sorts of intangibles that *do* matter but are so difficult to hit on, especially evaluating from a distance.
That’s not to say this information is completely inaccessible to anyone but those who are in a particular organization, but I think there’s a really good reason that, when an executive formerly affiliated with one team moves to another (especially those cases where he’ll take on GM responsibilities for another team), you will frequently hear of (or even see) that executive trying to deal with players who he was most familiar with in his previous organization. I really think that it’s a partly, if not entirely, a result of this privileged information he was previously privy to.
But that’s just my two or three cents.
…something else I’ll add to this analysis, though, is that I think we’re taking the wrong approach if we only think in terms of 2008, which I think a lot of people are doing. Yes, it is going to be extremely difficult for the Yankees to navigate a 162-game season and the playoffs (if they make it) with three rookie starting pitchers with innings caps. But the question was never what makes the Yankees a better team in 2008, and only 2008: it as a question of what makes the Yankees a better team in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and–if it got this far–2013 and 2014. In short, it was a question of how the Yankees would look over the entire course of the Santana contract.
Sure, you discount those later years as a matter of principle, but you don’t discount them to the point that you’re singularly focused with how competitive the Yankees will be in 2008 and only 2008.
G.LOVE,
Can i get cliff notes to your posts.lol
“By saying he’s never won in the postseason I’m saying he’s never won a ring.”
Oh I see, so which individual player has ever won a ring all by himself in any team sport?
It takes a TEAM to win a ring, not one player. If Johan is on that team, your chances are better. Do you really not believe that to be true? It is so simple.
Pat Ewing, Dan Marino, Charles Barkley, and Alex Rodriguez never won rings. But that doesn’t mean they didn’t greatly improve their teams chances to win the ring.
Jeff Weaver has won a ring. He is terrible. I mean come on, you can’t use that argument.
Sure having Johan guarantees nothing, but it makes your chances in 2008 a lot better.
I’m glad the yankees didn’t trade for Johan. However, I recognize that having him as a starter this year would improve the Yankee chances to win it all this year.
If, and I stress if, the Klapish package is legit, then the Yankees severely dropped the ball with Santana. From the go, we were all reluctant to include Hughes in any deal, but were more than willing to send Kennedy, Melky, a TWO prospects for Santana. Now, people are saying they wouldn’t part with even the three mentioned by Klapish? That’s nuts. Santana is 28 going on 29, and is the best pitcher in the game. A lefty ace in Yankee Stadium. With a team that scores 900+ runs, has a good mix of vet/young starters, is built to win, and only lacks that certifiable ace, the Yankees really screwed up here. Again, that if the deal mentioned is accurate. The bottom line is that the Yanks weren’t giving up anything of consequence. Sure, Kennedy is valuable, and Melky is your starting CF, but having Patterson there for a season isn’t a significant drop off, while keeping Hughes was the big deal.
Cashman and the Yankees totally screwed up here. IMO.
Some combination of Kennedy, Wang & Melky.
No free agent CF to replace Melky, UNLIKE DECEMBER!
140M + 56M Luxury tax = 206M FOR A PITCHER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Santana couldnt beat Detroit, couldnt beat the Indians & is 1-4 in the playoffs.
YOU PEOPLE ARE CRAZY!!!
SOS,
Here’s the Cliffs Notes. I’m pissed. We should have traded for Johan when the price dropped from Hughes being in the deal.
Hope that helped!
randyhater
There is no question that today I would rather have Santana over any of the kids or Wang. Not a hard decision!!!
But to assume that the Twinkies counter offer would be a “Yanks Accept” is niave! The Twinkies were getting fleeced by the Mets & the Twinkies wanted more. Never did the Twinkies ever really want the Yanks or Red Sox to have Santana unless the deal was awesome for them.
We can blame Hal or Cash or even Hank, but the Yanks understood early that Boston & the Yankees were never in the picture, so they said go pound sand to the Twins.
My last point is this, it isn’t about Sanatan or nothing! It is a decision of Santana now or the kids or someone else later if need be. If Harden is healthy this year the A’s could ship him somewhere. Or if D Rays decide to ship Kazmir or who knows what other ace may be available come July 2008.
I think Cash is playing it safe. I don’t always like safe. This time I believe he made the right decision. Now if the Red Sox had gotten Santana then I would be calling for his head!! LOL! That is why I am called a fan!!
Something else to think about: the Red Sox *essentially* waltzed into the 2007 season with a make-shift bullpen, not so unlike the Yankees’ make-shift bullpen this year. I think it’s wrong to assert that, just because the Yankees might not be relying on the number of *definite* commodities we have previously been accustomed to, that it makes those variable commodities lesser.
Certainly, the Yankees are taking on a lot more risk this season than they have in seasons past, in my own personal opinion. But with that risk comes a measurably higher reward; I think the ceilings of guys like Ohlendorf, Britton, Albaladejo, and potential mid-season call-ups like Horne, Cox, and Melancon are far higher (and certainly will get you more cost-effective performance) than trying to sign, say, a Linebrick, a Gagne, and a Cordero on the Free Agent market.
Grabow,
I believe you are proving my point. Lots of people seem to believe that Santana alone will guarantee a championship for the Yankees. My point is Santana alone guarantees nothing. I’m not even sure about how much your chances improves with him in the rotation.
For example Jeff Weaver looked unbeatable while helping the Cardinals win the WS in ’05. As you said he’s horrible, yet having him on the team greatly improved the Cardinals chances of winning a WS. There is no end all be all when it comes to one player on a team. When the Yankees traded for Alex I was ecstatic, I was counting the ticket tape parades and yet the Yankees haven’t won the WS yet since Alex has been on the team.
Shepherd
I read in reports all the time that Santana won’t waive his no trade unless he gets the extension he wants. But why not? Has he really said that?
I understand he won’t sign an extension which is below the value he feels he could get on the open market in 1 yr.
But he complained last yr about the Twins trading away players at the All Star break, saying he is in his prime and they were basically wasting his talent by not trying to add to the team and push for a title. So why wouldn’t he play for a contender for 1 yr and then get his multi millions in the summer?
If he plays in NY and shows he can handle it as well and that last yr was only a blip (think what numbers he could put up for the Mets in the NL this yr) he could stand to make a lot more on his multi yr deal. I know he has the confidence to think he can handle it – so why not prove it to the teams?
For the Mets it means at worst 2 solid picks in the draft and a no risk rental of Santana, with the possibility of a longer deal next yr.
Everyone wins (except the Twins who are getting robbed – how did the Mets convince them that the one decent prospect they have wouldn’t be in the deal for the best pitcher in the game? Minaya made some horrible moves this summer but really stuck it to the Twins with this one)
That 206M commitment to Santana could fund their international free agent and draft signings for the next 17 years @ 12M per year.
BTW, Klapisch also said that Ellsbury was off the table
Last night, Pete mentioned that it was reported that Ellsbury and Lowrie were offered.
Which version do you believe?
This is entirely hypothetical, but say Bedard is traded to the Mariners only to be flipped over to the Yankees. Would that violate the code of GMs in the eyes of Peter Angelos and the O’s?
I don’t think we should trade for Bedards in this fashion, but I was wondering about this. I imagine it would make the O’s very angry, but it shouldn’t be outside the M’s rights if they placed value in someone else above Bedard.
We do not know who the 3rd prospect was. According to Klapisch, it was a Top Prospect. Lets just evaluate the Deal of IPK + Melky + AJAX/Tabata + 140-160 Million. Maybe it would be ok for a few years. 7 year contract is too long.
Unless Santana blows out his shoulder or IPK wins 20 or Melky has OBS > 850 for the season of AJAX/Tabata… The deal will take several years to assess. 7 years for a pitcher is too long.
Another thing people in here aren’t realizing is that any deal would be contingent on the Yankees and Santana agreeing to an extension. So if Smith called Cash and said “give us Kennedy, Melky, and one of Tabata/Jackson/Horne, and you got a deal”, then Cash could always try to low ball Santana, with the comfort of knowing he could just rescind and walk away. The Yanks could have made a 5/$100 offer persay, with options of some sort, and tell Santana to take it or leave it. What’s the harm in that? You get your players back, and you got a shot to get Santana at your price. What’s worse, is to hear people talk about the Yankees and fiscal restraints or sanity. Please. The Yankees run their finances as good as the government, which is to say irresponsibly. They bid against themselves, and overpay at every chance they get. Look no further than A-Rod, Posada, and Rivera this past off-season. They waited for Jeter to get to his last year when they could have signed him earlier for less, like the Sox did with Garciaparra. They bid against themselves for Giambi when there was no team even remotely close. The only sane thing they’ve done, is sign Cano to 4 years. Of course, even there, they didn’t truly gain much, since he had 4 years of control left. They didn’t even steal a season of FA from him, like smarter teams do. The Yankees simply print money, and they know it. New park = more money. Santana could’ve been low balled, and incentive/optioned with an offer, if the Yanks were smart. If they didn’t like it, then they could’ve walked away. Instead, we’ll be one and done, IF we make the playoffs this year.
When I see the insults flying is when I stop reading. So many times here it’s like being in a bar full of drunks, only without the alcohol.
“Lots of people seem to believe that Santana alone will guarantee a championship for the Yankees. My point is Santana alone guarantees nothing. I’m not even sure about how much your chances improves with him in the rotation. ”
There is no player or transaction that guarantees any team a championship. Anybody who thinks there is such a player is foolish.
That’s not my issue with your stance. My issue is that you think that the chances to win don’t improve that much with Santana in the rotation, and you cite things like the Twins lack of success in the postseason.
The yankees got off to a horrible start last year. They neded up with 40 games atrted by the likes of Igawa/Clippard/DeSalvo/Rasner/Karstens/Pavano and so forth. Yet they still got into the playoffs. Those guys together put up a brutal ERA. If you put up 200+ innings of Santana great numbers, you win a lot more games. It’s simple, really.
Same thing with A-Rod. You should still be super ecstatic that he is a Yankee. he greatly improved the yankees chances to win it all last year. YOu can’t argue with that, right? Without him they don’t even sniff the postseason. With him, they win nthe Wild Card and have an actual chance to win the WS. Unfortunately for the Yankees, Wang and Jeter and Posada were horrible in the postseason. That doesn’t mean that ARod didn’t improve the Yankees chances to win it all.
Have you ever heard of Expected W-L record (or pythagorean W-L)? It is based on the very strong correlation between team Wins with Runs Scored and Runs Allowed. With Santana in your rotation, your Expected Wins increases significantly. The Yankees only lost the division by 2 games. Even a 3 win improvement would have been significant.
The 2006 cardinals are not proof that guys like Santana are not valuable in the postseason. What it shows, is that luck plays a decent role in October since you must win a few short series. Anybody can have a good streak for a few weeks. That is what Weaver did. If they had Santana instead, for example, they would have had an even better chance to win the WS that year. That team won 83 games that year. They got lucky.
I would rather rely on talent than luck. And having guys like Santana improves the talent of the 25-man roster. Not Jeff Weaver. You also need luck to be on your side as well. Stupid midges.
sorry about the poor typing on that previous post
Real World
Let’s not be too optimistic here!!! LOL! The Yankees are fair with their players. It is known that they will take care of their FA and their own players. Why George even wrote checks to former Yankees who needed or their family needed help. This isn’t a money issue! Santana never was a money issue. The Yanks are built finally for the long run and the short run. You don’t jepordize this unless you have to and in the Santana to Boston scenario it would have been a have too. All risks aren’t even. Santana isn’t the only option. The Yanks farm system is very deep in Pitching because of Cashman. If he didn’t do such a great job with the farm we never would have been in the mix to start with. I know it is popular to say it is Hughes, Joba & Kennedy we are leaning on for next year, but that isn’t true. We have at least 4 other potential SP’s in AA/AAA that are major league ready as well. Plus there are SPs available via trade, with even more possibly available in late June/July time frame.
So lets not panic! The season is yet to start even! This is why baseball has 162 game regular season schedule and no playoff rosters need to be set until midnight before Sept 1st.
I like what I see in the Yankees for 2008 & beyond.
the yankees by keeping thier own young pitchers can staff the entire starting rotation for the next 6 years for less than they would have had to pay just santana. Thats the decision they’ve made. It leaves the yanks a ton of $ to spend on position player/high-bonus draft picks. I might have made the trade, but i have to admire cash for staying with the program in the last year of his contract.
Bring on ST!
grabow, you make good points. I’m a Yanks fan from Boston, and up here they think the Sox won by virtue of Santana going to the Mets. Why? Cuz they know that adding Santana to the Yankees tips the scale against them. Put 30 Santana starts inside those made by the pitchers you mention, and the Yanks easily make up the two games they lost by, and win the division. Furthermore, what a starter like Santana does, is improve your bullpen. Instead of hoping for 5 innings from Igawa, or some rookie, you’re getting 7+ from an ace. Shortening the bullpens game improves it’s overall quality, as pitchers toss fewer innings & games, and lesser arms are therefore less exposed. The Yanks should have made this deal, if, and I stress if, it was Kennedy +
SJ44 -
The Yankees could have absorbed a deal for Santana. Maybe he isn’t ‘profitable’ for them but they stand to make plenty of money with him.
You said yourself their offense as-is should score 900+ runs. Losing Melky wouldnt have had as much of an impact as you say (imo).
There is really no argument that adding Santana would make the Yanks a much better team. If money is a major issue – ok. I contest that it isn’t (in this particular case).
Actually, why do we believe that these reports would’ve been the final talent cost?
What would’ve prevented Smith from playing the Red Sox and Yankees against each other to drive up the price like in December?
Ray,
The Yankees overpay their players. They whine, and rightfully so, about being held over a barrell in deals by other teams, who always want the Yanks to pay more, yet, they wantingly do it to themselves every time they negotiate a deal. Just look at this past offseason as an example. They overpayed EVERYBODY in both money, and years, when they didn’t have to. Why? Cuz they can. They print money. Even worse is the fact that there’s a ton of money coming off the books this year. Abreau, Giambi, Mussina, Farnsworth, etc. with a new park’s worth of revenue to boot.
As for the farm and pitchers, it’s great to have young arms, no doubt. The problem here is that we know, for a fact, that the majority of these arms won’t pan out. That’s simply how baseball works. So, the idea of a farm system is two fold. One, you stock up chips to trade for established players that help cure your current teams deficiencies, and two, to develop talent that builds the foundation of your team. The Yankees have chips now, but they lack an established ace. Santana is exactly what the Yankees need. To think that we could have had him for some chips that may, or may not pan out, while keeping Hughes, and we didn’t do it, is a bad move. You never keep all your chips when you are the Yankees, or a team that is competing. You keep your chips when you are rebuilding, or when those chips are needed to fill an upcoming vacancy. For the Yankees, it’s not about having arms to make starts. It’s about having an arm to win important ones.
You are right on the money about Santana’s positive effects, Real World.
I’m going to reserve judgment on the possible kennedy+ others deal for Santana until I know there is more substance to it. And as much as I like Santana, I am glad the Yankees didn’t pull the trigger back in December. I really like Phil Hughes. Melky is a decent CF guy. And it wouldn’t have been worth the prospects or money to land Santana when there are some decent free agent alternatives for next year (although none as good as santana). But the thing that’s great about the Yankees current roster is that they might not even need to spend any money on pitching next offseason. if things work our well, we’ll be seeing a lot of good things from Hughes, Joba, Wang, Kennedy, and Horne for a long time. And then there’s the next tier of minor league arsm who are also highly touted. The yanks are deep in arms. The thing is, lots of Yankee fans are impatient and don’t want to accept a potentially less potent Santana-less Yankee team in 2008. But the future is very bright for this team. I just hope than hank doesn’t get rid of Cashman if the Yanks don’t make the postseaoson this year.
The Yanks basically are saying they will no longer sign a pitcher to a long term deal. When Joba hits free agency will they sign him? Hughes? Santana is the best, and most importantly in his prime. If you won’t pay for that… If the ‘going rate’ for those guys is high, will they pay up? If they do, it will contradict their alleged recent actions.
Blargh,
It very well could have been, but we’re assuming it isn’t. An example I posed in another thread, if I were Cashman, would be that if Smith called me and said “OK, we’ll take kennedy, Melky, and one of Tabata/Jackson/Horne”, I’d have told him he has a deal, but that he had to make it right then and there, with no “let me think about it, or, I’ll get back to you”. If he makes it right then and there, then he can’t run to the Sox and create a bidding war. Again though, what people don’t understand, is the Yankees could have even offered more, and then tried to low ball Santana in a contract, since they could always have rescinded and walked away. Bad business on the part of the Yankees here.
This is the problem. We are all assuming that Hughes was dropped. Other rumors say that he was dropped and Wang and Kennedy were the asking price. We will never know. I agree with some posters that say maybe the Kennedy and Melky is being leaked by Smith to save his A$$. This arguement will continue to go in circles. We will never know. Also, we are assuming that Hank was willing to pay him 6 or 7 years. When he stated he wouldnt go past 5.
So the cliff notes on this is. Dont get pissed at something we will never get the truth about. It could have been the players asked, the money he wants or Smith not wanting him in the a.l. especially going to the Yanks.
Its all good Yankee fans. We will be alright. Look at what happened when the Sox lost out on Arod. The one the title that same year. #27 IS COMING IN OCTOBER.
grabow,
I never would have traded Hughes for Santana. Not even straight up. I think that when you get a guy with the talent & projection of Hughes, you roll the dice and develop him as best you can. Hughes will most likely never be Santana, but even if he’s Mussina for his career, he’s far more valuable than Santana over the long haul. By alot. However, Kennedy is not Hughes. I like Kennedy, and think he’ll be a very good MLB pitcher for years to come. I like Melky alot too, as he’s only 22/23 and is going to improve. The thing is you’ve got to give to get, and Patterson in CF is about even, Santana is far better than Kennedy, and the prospect might never pan out. You trade a couple of dimes to get a dollar. Santana is a dollar, in his prime, who helps you win now. I pull the trigger.
I can understand not trading Hughes, but not getting rid of Kennedy is ludacris. Like somone above said, the purpose of buildling a farm team is to a) use them and b) trade them.
Brian Cashman seems to think every Yankee in the farm system is going to be a great player some day in the MLB. How often do great prospects work out? The fact that Cashman thinks everyone in the farm is going to to be the next great thing is flawed thinking.
And if the plan works out that we have a home-grown rotation in two years with Wange, Joba, Ian, Phil and Horne, big deal. How many teams have won the world series with entirely home grown rotations? It takes a blend of veterans and young pitching to win.
This situation all falls on Cashman. The only reason Melky is the centerfielder is because he made the awful decision not to sign Beltran. Melky is an expendable fourth outfielder who frankly isn’t even better than Coco Crisp. Because he signed Damon, he felt he can’t trade Melky because his signing Damon can’t play center.
I’ll cut some leverage to Cashman on not trading Hughes because that’s his prized prospect, but not trading Melky and Ian is not a smart move.
If the Mets make the World Series in the j.v. National League for the next four-five years with Santana while the Yankees only make it once or twice, is Cashman still then going to a genius?
Real World
I don’t really disagree with you. But I do believe the Yanks knew they never had a chance to get Santana because saying yes to any offer by the Twins just starts the music again from a team that didn’t really want the yanks to have Santana in the 1st place. Also, if the yanks said yes, then the possibility of Santana landing in Boston goes up as well. I believe the Yanks won here in the long run because he didn’t land in Boston and Twinkie weren’t going to settle with the Yanks short of a fleecing.
If Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and another prospect were all the Twins wanted for Johan Santana then Cashman BLEW IT big time. You make that deal.
Real World, I agree with you that if the price was Kennedy + Melky + one other prospect then it seems that you should do that trade. However, I don’t believe (yet) that the Twins ever seriously considered a non-Hughes offer. I think this current stuff about Kennedy is mostly BS. So I’m not too upset just yet. I am happy with the current Yankee team going in to the season.
Real World
BTW, the Yanks overpaying FA is obvious, even their own FA. By doing so they appear to be able to lure most FA to NYY and comfort the young guys to stay in line. The time value of money is clearly understood by George. The proof is in the results financially. There is only a small financial impact on the Yanks with the YES network & new stadium & even those will bring even more $$ to the cofers. The Yanks run a 1st class organization! It shows.
We are all a bit frustrated when we feel a #1A starter would have put the Yanks over the top for several years now. Right now we don’t know if Santana is Koufax or Pavano. He looks & seems like Koufax. But if he has arm issues he may indeed be a Pavano.
BREAKING NEWS:
Brian Cashman made a colossal mistake, he admits he goofed.
Quote:
Cashman: I thought they were trading Hannah Montana, not Johan Santana!
pretty good post, not in love with the new format of the blog though…
Steve:
The Marlins in 2003 did pretty good for themselves with a young, almost entirely home-grown rotation, wouldn’t you say? And against a pretty powerful Yankees juggernaut, nonetheless.
People, there’s no magical, sure-fire way to build a World Series-winning team. There’s not even a magical, sure-fire way to build a World Series-contending team (although that’s admittedly easier, and *exactly* what the Yankees have right now). Part of that is because–although nobody wants to admit it–the current playoff format makes it such a crapshoot, and part of that is because teams have been successful contenders in both leagues, especially over the last decade, using variously different methods of team construction.
The only real fundamental constant that all playoff teams share is that, at some level, they are composed of good ballplayers. It doesn’t matter whether those ballplayers are young or old, free agent or home-grown; all of that, ultimately, is fundamentally irrelevant. You seek to build the best team you can, with the pieces and resources that are available to you, as other teams are competing to build their own best possible teams as well. This leads to a lot of complex factors and variables that end up beyond a General Manager’s control–such as what Bill Smith is *actually* asking vis-a-vis Santana, or what your owner decides is an acceptable payroll (is the Marlins front office–Owner exempted–terrible because they couldn’t hold onto Miguel Cabrera?), or how your scouts evaluate the players you have and the players you have an opportunity to acquire.
Something sticks out to me in one of the possibly (and probably) fictitious reports leaking about the Santana endgame, the one that read Cashman had an opportunity to trade Kennedy, Melky, and at least a third, unnamed top prospect (I’ve already speculated on who might have been some of the lesser-known, high-upside prospects who might have qualified who the Yankees might not have been willing to put on the table before, which cannot be discounted, either): Cashman conducted a straw-poll of the organization, and the CONSENSUS decision in the Yankees front office was that the trade doesn’t get made.
It wasn’t just Cashman; it means the Yankees player evaluators and scouts, the people who Cashman relies on most of all when it comes down to making player decisions, said you don’t make that trade. So when it comes right down to it, it’s not all Cashman, and it might not even be all Hank or Hal Steinbrenner, either.
I’m not trying to deflect blame from Cashman, or anything of the sort, but I think that if people are going to run with the narrative that Pete Abraham and others are reporting, then no details should be left out–and that’s one of the striking details *to me*.
Guys, dumb question, but what is IMO short for?
Also, some people are saying Kennedy is overated and nothing more than a #5 starter.
Kennedy was minor-league starter or they year.. over hmm JOBA. Yup he had better minor league number.
Also, when called up, he pitched 3 amazing games totaling 19 innings with 13 hits and 15 strikouts and 1.89 ERA w/ WHIP of 1.16.
So why are som many people so quick to say Kennedy has no major league experience when he’s only pitched 5.. FIVE less innings than Joba.
And we all know that starting is harder than relieving. So don’t say that it’s because Joba had a lower ERA or more strikouts.
I look at it this way. What’s a better deal:
Kennedy + Melky + one Horne/Tabata/Jackson
OR
Mulvey, Humber, Gomez, and Guerra?
The Kennedy package is better, and here’s why. Mulvey and Humber aren’t as good as Kennedy. The two Met’s arms are fringe mlb starters. They rate as end of the rotation, period. Kennedy not only has much better minor/major league numbers, but he’s younger and rates higher. You always take the better arm as opposed to multiple marginal arms. Gomez is a speedy guy with a glove, who can’t hit. Melky is a 22/23 year old mlb CF’er who has a top 5 arm in the league. Melky never played in AAA save for a 20-30 games, where he hit .385. Melky Gomez is a wash IMO. Gomez might be sexier, but Melky is the surer thing. That fo course brings us to the Yanks prospect. The Yanks prospect would be better, and higher rated, than any single player the Mets gave up. That’s why I think the rumor has legs. The Yanks deal was simply better.
IN MY OPPINION
ahhh wise haha good deal thanks sos
IMO = In My Opinion
I do think that the package rumoured by Klapisch is better than the Mets package was.
But as implied earlier, I don’t think that would’ve been the final cost.
Also, I think that in the scenario that Real World brought up, Smith would back out. That package is not incredibly superior enough to compensate for what I perceive the value of sending Santana out of the AL would be to Smith.
Lastly, there’s something fishy about the Red Sox not landing Santana if demands were lowered as such.
Just a question…1st round of the playoffs, best of 5. What pitcher you want getting 2 starts in the series? Wang, Pettite, Kennedy, Hughes or Santana? Please Yankees are out of the first round with Santana starting a best out of 5 series. Anyone see Josh Beckett this year?
You take Santana.WAng had a 19 Era last year and every game since he’s been here he’s has gotten worse.HUghes just played 4 innings,Kennedy is unknown and HGH Pettitte has a bulking elbow and is 35.Santana is a ace.It’s not like he’s been terrible or bad like Jeter and Wang last year.
To be fair, Guerra is a legit prospect, he’s just three years away.
Hopefully this is the Eric Gagne thing all over again…even though we still should have kept Proctor.But maybe in 2 years it will work out for the better.But it all matters what he does in the playoffs.
“Why is it that Buchholz can be penciled in for 150 innings, yet any of the young Yankee pitchers are “question marksâ€?
This skirts the issue. The question is whether the Yankees improved their team this off-season sufficeintly 1) to overtake the Red Sox; and 2) to keep up with the improvements of their two principal rivals for the wild-card in 2007, Detroit and Seattle.
The answer to both questions is no. Yes, I applaud the FO for re-signing their free-agents and No, I don’t underestimate the importance or the accomplishment in their doing so. (I was one of the few people on this board who thought A-Rod’s departure would be disaster as well.)
But relying on three kids for 60% of your rotation and failing to bolster your bullpen doesn’t strike me as a means of improving your team.
The Red Sox were a better team than the Yankees at the end of 2007. And they have remained a better team to begin 2008 because the Yankees didn’t excel them in their moves this off-season. Will Hughes, IPK, and Joba make the Yankees better than last year? If healthy, of course. The question is whether they will make them better than the Red Sox, who were already better and stand to improve just as much, if not more with the additions of Ellsbury, Lester and Buccholz.
Then too, Seattle and Detroit improved dramatically as well. Enough to surpass the Yankees? I fear so.
You may not think much of Silva but he at least has pitched between 180- 200 innings every year (2004-2007) and a rotation of King Felix, Bedard, Washburn, Silva and Batista/Ramirez will be a formidable one.
While the Tigers will score 1000 runs. I have doubts about their pitching staff, especially their bullpen, but with rotation headed by Verlander and Bonderman, if they remain healthy, will win at least 90 games.
Sorry, I think forgoing 200+ innings Santana was mistake, especially if the Yankees didn’t have to cede Hughes, and nothing is going to convince me otherwise.
Furthermore, recent comments by Cashman, as much as I respect him and admire what he’s done for the farm system, make me worry that he has let his own ego and personal agenda distort his judgment.
Now the Mets are going to the next 4 or 5 WS because they have Santana?
Geez, stop being so emotional.
How about we see if the Mets make the playoffs before we make such insane predictions.
Again, you overestimate what other teams did and underestimate what the Yankees did in the off-season in an attempt to prove your point. Its not necessarily accurate.
Just because teams make moves doesn’t mean they are better.
Getting Carlos Silva doesn’t improve the Mariners. Just because a guy can pitch innings doesn’t mean they are quality innings. He’s not a very good pitcher.
The Red Sox did nothing in the off-season and they are “better off” than the Yankees? How so? By doing the same thing the Yankees are doing, integrating their younger players into the mix?
Why is it that the Red Sox younger players are “can’t miss” in your eyes yet, the Yankees young players are question marks?
The Yankees finished TWO games behind the Red Sox last year. They won the last FOUR series they played against them. Its not exactly like they finished well behind the pack.
If you think the younger players on the team won’t improve, and a healthy Jeter and Damon, along with a managerial change, won’t make the team better, than you are entitled to your opinion.
I happen to think continued improvement from the younger players, a healthier overall team and having a manager who will handle a bullpen better than the previous manager will make them a better team.
Its not like they finished 15 games out of first place. They are neck and neck with the Red Sox.
Spending over 200 million dollars, which is the cost of a Santana deal to the Yankees when you factor in the luxury tax, along with having to find a starting CF, doesn’t guarantee anything.
Mets can win with Pedro healthy and Santana in the NL yes they are the favorites.Because SAntana in te NL is gonna be nasty.200 inings 200 strikeouts with a contending team.
Hey, SJ44, you’re one the best, fairest, and most judicious contributors to this board
So let’s hope you have more wisdom on this one than me.
Hey don’t just dismiss the Silva signing as a bad move. You have to look at it in terms of who he is replacing. He is taking over starts that would normally go to Haracio Ramirez, who is godawful and shouldn’t be wearing a major league uniform. That’s a big improvement, even though Silva is just average at best.
And to that person who asked about which pitcher you take to pitch multiple strats in a playoff series, the answer is simple: Johan Santana. He is the best pitcher in baseball. I will take him over any starting pitcher, not just the ones you mentioned. And that includes the newly annointed “most clutch pitcher ever” Josh Beckett.
KILL-SCHILL
I keep hearing about Beddard with Seattle. Did that deal go through? Last i heard Peter didnt want to pull the trigger. Even if he did, they are still not in our league. Every team has its flaws. Detroit signed Cabrera,but their pitching is suspect. Especially the back end.
As far as Boston being better. Maybe im a blind fan,but we owned the Sox in the second half of the year and the whole league as well. They got a jump on us when we were throwing out c grade pitchers in May. I think that as long as we stay healthy, we will win the division. Boston has just as many question marks as we do.(if not more) Will Papi be the same after the knee surgury? Will Manny power continue to decline? Will Dice go the Japanese route and get hit more after the league got to see him a couple times? Will Lowell have another aboration year? Will Schilling fastball get down to Mussina level mid 80′s. Will Ohkajima revert back to his past and have a 4 e.r.a.? Some of the best moves are ones that were never done.
The reaction on SNY was hilarious:
http://thesportshernia.typepad.....etwor.html
Will we be talking about signing Sabathia next offseason? Would everyone forget this and frogive Cashman if we signed c.c.for half the price and no prospects?(with keeping his weight down agreement offcoarse)How about a Sheets if healthy for even less? Keep your heads up Yankee fans im usually one of the most pessamistic people here. But our Yankees are on the right track and we will do just fine. Even better than expected.
SJ 44 wrote, “Why is it that the Red Sox younger players are “can’t miss†in your eyes yet, the Yankees young players are question marks?”
I think for a lot of us, it’s still fresh in our minds that we watched Pedroia, Ellsbury and Lester just help the Sox win a WS and play prominent roles in doing so.
Seeing their young players excel at the end of the season when all the money was on the line makes it somewhat logical that they have some quality young guys who are going to blossom.
They also beat the Cleveland team that we could only beat once in 4 games.
That said, I’m not convinced that Detroit or Seattle for that matter are going to be the juggernaut everyone believes they will be.
Just from watching some of the more recent Yankee teams that were predicted to score 1000 runs, that didn’t help any of them get out of the first round.
I think we have a good shot at winning the division and getting into the playoffs, but when I look at this current Yankee team what stands out to me is we are hamstrung in the pitching area.
With the innings caps on our young starters, Mussina being pretty much close to the end and our bullpen being a gigantic question mark, it would feel a lot better today if we were going into the season with Johan, Pettite, Wang, Hughes, Mussina and put Joba back in the pen to keep his innings down and shore up our pen.
Out of Johan, Joba, Hughes and IPK, the only one we can predict will throw 200 innings is Johan. The other three guys should not even get near that many innings.
Hence we needed him, not just for his talent, but for his track record and the depth he would provide in the rotation.
I think this was a big miss by the Yankees and I’ve said this before and I’ll say it again, I don’t care what the Yankees spend.
We pay top dollar to enjoy them, so if they save any money on payroll, it’s only going back to the Steins, not to the fans.
I love that the Steins usually don’t let money sway them from trying to improve the team.
For the first time, in a long time, I saw the Yankees make a non move and let money and unproven talent stop them from acquiring a young 2 time Cy Young award winner.
There is no spin in here that can tell me that at this moment, based on his career, Johan was not worth IPK, Melky and another prospect.
If you’re saying that with a straight face, you’re saying that based on hopes that Johan fails and his arm falls off and the other Yankee players all become all stars.
If Johan was willing to play for any team in the league and not just the 3 teams involved, the bounty for him would have been huge.
At this point it’s over unless the Mets bungle up the contract negotiation so it’s not use crying about it.
But it will go down as one of the moves that the organization will be harshly judged on by the fans and media over the course of the next few seasons.
Hopefully, for our sake, IPK and Melky (who I both like a lot) have great seasons and it all becomes moot.
Still, I’d rather have Johan today than either of them.
That’s honest. That’s not the pollyanna everyone in Scranton and Trenton is going to be an all star and we must hold on to all of them propaganda that seems to pervade this blog at times.
Look at the bright side. At least we dont have Pavano the opening day starter for us.
Thank God for that SOS. I really think the Yankees should set up a dunking booth outside the stadium and make him sit in it for every home game.
G.love
He would probably ask to get a percentage of the money we would pay to dunk him. Better off forgetting he ever existsted. Just a bad dream.
Payroll has nothing to do with ticket prices. Never has, never will. To make the argument that ticket prices entitle you to the club making bad deals well, you simply don’t understand baseball economics.
Ticket prices are driven by supply and demand. As long as there are 5 million + people looking to buy tickets, as there are with the Yankees, ticket prices will remain high.
Where payroll plays a role is with the luxury tax. As we have seen, teams take the money the Yankees contribute to the pool and use it to better their own teams. That limits the players available each year for the Yankees to acquire from the outside. Its why they have gotten so involved with developing from within.
It has nothing to do with Cashman’s ego. Lowering the payroll allows the Yankees the ability to do deals that benefit themselves and not everyone else in the game.
Signing Santana, because of the luxury tax hit, cost them over 200 million dollars for the deal. Its not just a one year hit. Its a hit as long as the payroll stays as high as it is and you have to play a pitcher for 6-7 years. History has shown pitchers don’t hold up that long. Its why the Yankees and Red Sox shied away from doing this deal.
The Yankees goals are to limit payroll in the next few years. The payroll will still be high. However, if its more manageable, then these type of deals make more sense to do. Mainly, because you aren’t getting hit with a 40% luxury tax premium on the deal.
Just because you don’t believe the younger players can come in here and help this team win doesn’t mean its correct. Last year, for example, they don’t make the playoffs without the contribution of the younger players. So, one could argue they are trending upward in that area.
There is enough evidence over the last 7 years to show that your way of wanting things done (getting the biggest, brightest star each year) hasn’t worked. Over a billion dollars spent in payroll since 2000.
They not only haven’t won a WS in 7 years, its bloated the payroll to the point where it hamstrings moves they can make and also helps their opponents (through the luxury tax payments) improve themselves.
Its a strategy that hasn’t worked and now the Yankees are changing courses.
Why don’t you wait and see how it plays out before deciding its a failure?
If not for the younger players last year, the Yankees don’t make the playoffs. That was only a preview. If they build on last year, it will be better short term and long term for the team.
That attitude has disconcerted me as well, G.Love. Wait until some of these guys fail to reach their potential as invariably happens. See whether public opinion shifts. The Yankees haven’t taken a risk like this in any time I’ve been a fan going back to the early 80s.
As for the Red Sox, SOS27, not only did Pedroia, Ellsbury, and Buchholz all impress me– and I watched every Sux game that didn’t compete with a Yankee game and even those I watched certain at-bats on a PIP screen– but I also worry that Dice-K, after adjusting to the AL, will both more better and have greater stamina this season.
Boston’s bullpen also impresses me as better than the Yankees. Actually, I’m almost as indignant about the FO’s decision not to pursue Vizcaino as I am about its decision to forgo Santana. ANd you’re right about the innings, GLOVE.
Not only will Mussina have to pitch significant innings b/c of the rookies inning caps, but Igawa, Karstens, or Rasner might as well.
I suspect Angelos will ultimately approve the Bedard deal because otherwise he risks driving away McPhail after just hiring him. (True, Angelos is tyrannical enough to derail the deal regardless)
talk about a double standard- i guess the twins REALLY wanted johan in the national league even if they had to destroy their organization to do so. So they end up trading the best pitcher in baseball for some garbage and some very young prospects. Good job minnesota – if liriano isnt healthy they will be in last place next season. Congrats. As for cash, I can only hope he gets fired for rejecting johan based on money. Watch – next yr we give a pitcher with half of johans talent over 100 mil.
The strange thing is a part of me has more faith that Veras and Ohlendorf will work a more dramatic improvement on the team’s bullpen than IPK and Hughes will on the starting staff.
Innings caps won’t diminsh the full contributions Veras and Ohlendorf can make. What’s more, the expectations on them will be lower and they won’t be thrust into pressue situations until they prosper in less demanding ones.
Anyone know whether the Yankees expect Sabbathia to be a free agent? With Johan signed, I would assume the Indians will try to extend his contract to prevent that possibility. No?
Maybe, the Yankees know Sabbathia wants to come to NY too. If that’s the case, I might forgive Cashman for forgoing Santana.
KILL-SCHILL
I watched alot of their games as well being that in my mind i think i can root against them to lose and it will effect the outcome.(by watching,maybe i should stop being they won it this year) I agree with you about the youngsters. Have to disagree on Dice. I dont think he is used to going against patient hitters. He also doesnt do well with runners on base. If history is what we judge him on. Than the league will figure him out more than the opposite. I look for a high 4′s mid 5 e.r.a. Obviously not worth the money and certainly not an ace.
SJ,
I see your point and I understand the logic, but I don’t agree with it.
I wasn’t advocating us signing Lohse or Zito or Carlos Silva to an inflated contract, I was advocating us getting arguably the best starting pitcher in baseball under 30.
I had grown tired and weary of all the Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown type mistakes. We took those guys on knowing the risks that they were old and injured a lot and in a decline.
I don’t see why anyone can think Johan is in the same area as any of those type of players.
He’s younger than Pettite and Mussina. He’s also more effective and durable based on the innings he throws every year.
20 million a year to him is a great investment with Mussina and Pettite coming off the books. The rest of the rotation is going to be cost controlled, so splurging on an Ace is a good move.
If he were a good enough bet at the winter meetings when we were ready to deal Hughes, how did he become a worse bet now?
My way of thinking is to get these young stars when they are available. I would have taken Vlad over Sheffield. I would have taken Beltran when he wanted to come here as Bernie was declining.
I hate when the Yankees sign some 35+ all star who’s best years are behind them.
That’s why I was happy to hear we were in on Johan. He’ll be 29. At the end of the deal, he’d be 35-36. Pettite’s age. The same age of a guy we’re paying 16 million to next season.
In 6-7 years, I have a feeling the 20 million or so we’d be paying Johan wouldn’t look so bad. It’d look like Pettite money.
We have a ton of money coming off the cap next season with Pettite, Mussina, Giambi, Pavano, etc. Johan would have slotted in nicely and the team could still save money on the luxury tax.
That’s my problem with this non move. Calling Johan another Johnson, Clemens, Kevin Brown is very myopic and only suits an argument.
He’s younger than any of them when they joined the Yankees and he would still be younger than them when they joined the Yankees when his contract would have been up.
He became worse now because the Yankees don’t have anybody to replace Melky in CF.
They add an arm and a huge contract, then have a big hole in CF.
Clearly, the Red Sox felt the same way because they too backed off him since December.
Time does change things.
Nobody is doubting Santana’s ability. However, combining the cost to get him in terms of players and money, the Yankees (and the Red Sox for that matter) both passed.
Its just the new way baseball is being done with the Yankees and the Red Sox. If it works, nobody will complain. If it doesn’t, there will be a lot of second guessing.
I just don’t subscribe to the theory espoused by some on here that the season is over because they didn’t get Johan Santana.
Call me crazy but, I think a healthier team, with improving young players, can win two more games than last year. that’s what it takes to be even with the Red Sox.
While some will argue that Red Sox players will all improve, all I am saying is I believe the Yankees young players will improve as well.
I just don’t believe we have seen the best of Hughes, Chamberlain, Cabrera, Kennedy and Cano yet. If I’m right, the Yankees will be very tough this year.
Sorry, but count me as one of those that would take the Twins offer of Kennedy, Cabrera and a prospect for Santana.
Johan Santana is 29 years old AND THE BEST LEFTY PITCHER IN THE WORLD!
I like Kennedy, but righty arms are the Organization’s strength. I also like Melky and have supported him many times on this Blog, but he’s replaceable.
The current Yankee team is comprised of key veterans that ar at or past their peak.
Santana could have been the final piece.
Maybe Cashman has some inside information about his health; maybe Johan’s final month’s numbers scared both NY and Boston off.
That aside, I definitely do that deal!
SJ44, Is Melky Cabrera really that much better than either Corey Patterson or Brett Gardner and/or some combination of both?
I understand the Yankees think Austin Jackson will be there CF by 2009, or 2010 at the latest, anyway. All the Yankees would have needed was a one year place holder.
Was Mike Cameron all the great a replacement option to begin with?
SJ44,
I agree with just about everything you said except when it comes to ticket prices and the costs to the fans attending games. I travel 350 miles round trip to attend around 20 games per year.
It was pure greed on the Yankees part
to implement a 30% price increase this year on all Tier Reserved seats between Sections 1 and 16. The Yankees set attemdance records in ’06 and ’07 when these seats cost $18 and $19, respectively. They also had higher payrolls and luxury taxes in those years as well.
Tier Reserved and Bleacher seats are the bastion of working class folks and comprise more than half the seats in the Stadium. A 30% increase was uncalled for,unless greed is a legitimate reason.
The Yankees are going to soak their fans if the payroll is $150mil or $220 mil. As I’ve stated before, I don’t advocate overspending on payroll. I want to at least see them invest the money back into player development and augment those youngsters with established players.
Melky is a much better player than Patterson or Gardner. Its not even close.
Ticket prices are driven by supply and demand. Unfortunately, for many working class people, they get squeezed because its become very expensive to go to sporting events.
Not just Yankee games. ANY sporting event.
I don’t like it but, I can’t control it. All I am saying is, its not because of payroll. Its because of supply and demand.
The Marlins raised ticket prices 30% in the only areas of their stadium folks actually buy tickets for the 2008 season.
Its just the way it is with teams throughout sports.
You know what, I think I almost miss hmmn, today. Someone commit me, please.
i love how some of you guys are rationalizing what the yankees organization basically passed on due to money concerns by saying that the redsox also passed. Does that somehow make it better? Oh guys, we passed on the best pitched in the game because we didnt want another 100 plus million dollar contract but dont worry, the suxx passed also so its alright … Are you kidding me? Who cares wat the suxx did? This is about our team, not the morons to the north.
Santana
Wang
Pettitte
Hughes
Joba/Mussina
Wow.
Does that not make having Damon your CF for 120 games and another guy for 40 games worth it?
I love Melky… but the Yanks are a better team if they make this deal. period.
Can the Yanks win anyway? Absolutely.
Does the fact that they can win without Santana mean they shouldn’t have made the deal? No. When you can make your team better, you do it.
hahaha Kill-Schil,you’re funny.
SJ44,
Of course supply & demand affects ticket prices. But it doesn’t excuse price gouging. My point is that I’ll never get warm and fuzzy when I hear Brian Cashman talk about reducing payroll. When reduction in costs results in a reduction in price, I’ll become more excited. I give Cashman credit for walking the “tight”rope. hahaha But he better not fall off!
Boston Dave, I’ve been pulling my hair out for the last 2 days over that rotation.
Everyone who is saying we were two games behind Boston……add on the 9 gnames they won in the post-season so we’re 11 behind.
Frankly, if Cashman passed on a deal of Kennedy/Melky/prospect for Santana, I truly hope this is his last year as the Yankees’ GM. That offer was a no-brainer. The question is whether the offer was legit or not.
Kennedy/Melky/prospect plus 140 million/7 years taxed at 40%, is not at all a no-brainer. It depends who the prospect has to be; how you evaluate Kennedy; how you project Santana’s future – for example, is it true as some have written that his fastball was slower in the 2nd half.
The extra tax would have dissapeared in ’09 after the contracts of Giambi and Musina end. Kennedy is a surplus in a 6-man rotation, and unproven. Melky is totally replaceable, and Santana is a proven ace (something we don’t have). What part of the deal is not a no-brainer?
Some other sport writers are reporting that the offer was Wang/Kennedy/etc. Now, that is a different deal, and maybe one that needed thought. The Kennedy/Melky/prospect for Santana was, I insist, a no-brainer.