Inside the spring-training roster: Relievers
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- February
- 7
40-man roster players: Jonathan Albaladejo, Chris Britton, Brian Bruney, Kyle Farnsworth, LaTroy Hawkins, Sean Henn, Ross Ohlendorf, Scott Patterson, Edwar Ramirez, Mariano Rivera, Jose Veras.
Non-roster invitees: Daniel Giese, Steven Jackson, Mark Melancon, Heath Phillips, Scott Strickland, Billy Traber.
Competition: Let’s see, Mo’s on the team. Brian Cashman, for reasons that remain unclear, has a lot of faith in Farnsworth. They signed Hawkins, so they’ll keep him. Beyond that, your guess is as good as mine as to who makes the team. Albaladejo and Patterson are new to the organization. Ohlendorf came on at the end of last season. Britton and Bruney fell out of favor last season but were kept around. Ramirez has a killer change and a fastball that gets killed.
Looking For A Lefty: Henn, Phillips and Traber are the only lefty relievers in camp. But the Yankees could try and convert Chase Wright into a reliever at some point. Cashman is generally against the idea of keeping a lefty for the sake of keeping a lefty.
Don’t Sleep On: Jose Veras threw 8.2 innings in the Dominican Winter League and struck out 13 while allowing four hits and four walks. He’s 27 how and needs to start showing something. Rivera is a strong supporter.
Promotion Possibilities: Anything is possible with this bunch. After successfully turning Joba Chamberlain into a reliever last season, the Yankees could try that with some of their other starters. If Joba starts the season in the ‘pen, that will solve a lot of problems.
Youngster Of Interest: Melancon will be a hot name this season. Team execs love his approach and work ethic. But he has thrown only six innings since being drafted out of Arizona in 2006 and missed all last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. The surgery was 14 months ago and Melancon is ready to go.
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on Thursday, February 7th, 2008 at 2:54 am by Peter Abraham.
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Peter Abraham
My prediction for the March 31 bullpen: Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsdouche, Latroy Hawkins, Jose Veras, Ross Oldendorph, Chris Britton. Hawkins and Farns have 1 year left on their contracts so they can be DFA’d when they suck and more kids could be plugged in. Melacon could fly through the system
I love what I have seen from Jose Veras
I look for Melancon to be in the mix for sure.
If we’re talking about predictions here’s one : Rivera, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Albaladejo (his debut last year proved that he can be great), Ohlendorf, and I really don’t know of another one. If Joba starts in the BP then it’s him, if IPK starts the year in long relief then it’s him, Veras or one of the leftys are my other choices.
No matter what Melancon is starting the year in the minors he’s just recovered from TJ and he, Sanchez and anybody else who just recovered from TJ will start in the minors.
Cashman messed up. He should’ve signed Troy Percival before re-signing Mo and veteran lefty relievers Jeremy Affeldt and Ron Mahay (primary and secondary lefties, respectively). Betcha Ron Villone and Mike Myers accept minor-league contracts cuz who’d they sign with this offseason? If he can offer Morgan Ensberg, a guy released by two teams last year, the chance to make at least $1.75M and as much as $4M to be the backup/insurance 1B/3B or platoon 1B/ backup/insurance 3B, he could’ve offered Farnsworth and $2.875M (midway between $1.75M and $4M) to a team in need of a cheap one-year closer for an M.L.B. ready middle reliever…and cleared $2.875M in the process…which means LaTroy Hawkins would’ve cost $3.75M – 2.875M = $900K if they still wanted to sign him (I’d have signed him cuz he is a durable veteran).
The bullpen if I was g.m. would’ve been Mo, Percival, Affeldt, Mahay, Hawkins, the middle reliever acquired from trading Farnsworth, and whoever wins the final slot out of spring training among Bruney, Ohlendorf, Veras, etc. That’s a better bullpen than the one Cashman has put together which looks like Mo, Farnsworth (lock at $5.75M), Hawkins (lock at $3.75M), Bruney (near-lock at $725K cuz did they give this guy $725K to pitch in AAA?), a wing, a prayer, and a lucky coin.
Cashman is overrated. How’d he IMPROVE this team, Peter? He certainly didn’t improve the bullpen. Farnsworth, Hawkins, Bruney, or anyone else after Mo would’ve been #6 on the depth chart behind Mo, Nelson, Stanton, Mendoza, and Grimsley (the 1999 Yankees bullpen). He’s relying on two guys with 13 M.L.B. starts between them with one of them having all the starts to be the #3 and #4 starters. He didn’t trade ONE onerous contract (Damon, Giambi, Matsui, Farnsworth, Igawa). He didn’t reduce Abreu’s contract -you telling me Abreu wouldn’t have taken say $11M ($2M buyout + $9M re-signing)? Who was signing him for 2 or more years at $12M or more per? He publicly said he loves batting in front of/ being protected by A-Rod, living in N.Y.C./ his apartment in lower Manhattan, and being a Yankee. He’s singing for his supper this year at $11M or $16M. Paul O’Neill took wayyy below market to be a Yankee and last I checked as good as Abreu has been, he’s not better than O’Neill if even as good as O’Neill. Re-signing Posada, Rivera, and Pettitte were no-brainers but then again, that’s all Cashman is: The Master Of The No-Brainer Moves. Ledee and Westbrook for Justice. Signing Mussina away from Baltimore. Trading Wells and Bush for Clemens. Wow, you telling me any number of g.m.s couldn’t make those moves?
All he did this offseason besides keep who he had to keep and any g.m. would’ve kept had he been fired is LaTroy Hawkins.
Farnsworth and Veras will be the surprises this season. Farnsworth just needs to be loved and Girardi will work on Farnsy’s confidence. Bruney and Ramirez will be replaced by newbies. Alba & Ollie in the first half, youngsters in the second half. LaChoy was the big “acquisition” so look for him to stick around, even if he’s not outstanding.
In fact the more I think about it, the Bruney pickup is insurance. He’s the kind of pitcher that other clubs look at and say “He’s got great stuff, I can make him a great pitcher”. With the relief market out there, Bruney’s a movable chip.
I mean look at that list of pitchers. The ONLY really good one is Mo. Albaldejo, Britton, Veras, Ohlendorf, Ramirez, and Wright have very little M.L.B. experience, Henn doesn’t have much and hasn’t shown he can be a primary lefty reliever let alone a secondary lefty, and Patterson has none. The non-roster invitees have little or no M.L.B. experience. It isn’t fair to expect these kids to make up 3/7ths of the bullpen. I hope one of them pans out but to expect three to pan out is unrealistic.
These are the guys after Mo, Farnsworth, Hawkins, and Bruney? Farnsworth, Hawkins, Bruney, any two, or all three aren’t locks to be Yankees at year’s end and they won’t be Yankees then if they suck badly enough. Why didn’t Cashman try to add a year to Luis Vizcaino’s contract when he was acquired in the Randy Johnson trade? Why didn’t he take a flyer on ancient but serviceable veteran secondary lefty reliever Doug Brocail? Brocail would’ve taken the $725K the Yankees just gave Bruney. What possessed him to trade Scott Proctor, a 70+ games a year workhorse for a free-swinging fatso like Betemit? Had he added a year to Viz’s contract, kept Proctor, and signed Brocail the bullpen would’ve been Mo, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Vizcaino, Proctor, Bruney, and Brocail. Not great but better than this one is looking like cuz you need 70+ game guys like Viz and Prok and vets like them and Brocail. All three would’ve been low-risk high-return guys.
This is hands-down the worst Yankees bullpen since the 1989-92 era. You add to that two kids in the rotation and an old Mussina, and we might very well see the 1989/90/91/92 Yankees II and if that’s the case, Hank should fire Cashman immediately after the Yanks are eliminated from making the postseason. I mean you fire him right after that elimination game no joke cuz that’s it. I’d fire him if they miss the postseason by one game cuz it was, is, and always will be about winning the World Series and making the postseason is the first step. So he’s out of a job the final 1-3 weeks of the season, so what, too bad, put together a real pitching staff with your next team, herb. Good luck doing it with a far lower payroll. Cashman erroneously thinks the Yanks are a small or mid-market team rebuilding. He is wrong.
They need to trade Farnsworth for a middle reliever and sign lefties Rheal Cormier and Trever Miller for a bullpen of Mo, the guy acquired with trading Farnsworth, Hawkins, Cormier, Miller, Bruney, and whoever wins the final slot out of spring training. They have more than enough farm system talent to acquire a reliever via trade to replace anyone save Mo, Cormier, and Miller besides trading Farnsworth.
This bullpen as presently constituted is unacceptable.
“Albaladejo and Patterson are new to the organization.”
Just a small correction, Peter. Patterson isn’t new to the organization. He signed in 2006 and has pitched Double-A and Triple-A over the last two years.
My prediction:
Rivera
Albaladejo
Rameriz
Hawkins
Henn
Britton/Veras/Farnsworth
White/Rasner
They may want to keep Karstens in AAA, so White or Rasner wil be long reliever. I have NO FAITH in farnswrth and believe he will be traded by the end of spring training. Same with Bruney. ALBA and EDWAR will have huge year. Hawking will have around a 3.80 ERA and will pitch 70+ innings. Henn will finally have a good year. He showed great signs the 1st too months last year until Toree got to him.
AAA Rotation:
White/Rasner
Karstens
Igawa
Horne
Marquez
Eventualy McCutchen wil join them.
Wow that’s great Mel. According to you, Farnsworth, a veteran making $5.75M, needs to be loved and have a manager boost his confidence, and Bruney and Ramirez will be replaced. You’re putting alot of faith in two kids with barely any M.L.B. experience between them in Albaldejo and Ohlendorf. Hawkins will stick around, great. Sean Henn has stuck around, he’s a lefty fighting for a job in spring training with what other lefties? Bruney is insurance for who? He has the most experience in the pen after locks Mo, Farnsworth, and Hawkins. When I have to think about who’s the best between Farnsworth, Hawkins, and Bruney, the Yanks are in trouble. I mean can you think of a season where the Yanks didn’t have a clearcut setup man cuz guess what? This 2008 Yankees team doesn’t have one, sorry, and if you think I want to say that, you’re nuts.
To all you who think I’m bitching, well guess what? You tell me who’s a setup man as good as or better than Jeff Nelson 1996-2001 and how the hell the 2008 Yankeees are winning anything without one. Chamberlain? Then who’s in the rotation, Ian Kennedy? Well then you’ve downgraded the rotation cuz Hughes-Chamberlain > Hughes-Kennedy. What if Hughes or Kennedy suck so bad, you have to move Joba back to the rotation thus risk hurting him? Nickname him Yo-Yoba Chamberlain then. You can’t. Joba is wayyy more valuable in the rotation than the bullpen and you know what? Why should he have to save Cashman’s job again? What if he and either Hughes or Kennedy suck? Then you have a hole in the rotation and a hole in the bullpen and friggin Kei Igawa in the rotation.
You people need to get real with the pen after Mo. It’s mostly unknown quantities and quite frankly busts (Farnsworth) and retreads (Hawkins, Bruney). B.t.w. I see Brendan Donnelly is on the list of unsigned free agent relievers on Cot’s Contracts, so why is he not in a Yankee uniform yet? Again, you offer Ensberg the chance to make $1.75-4M as a backup 1B/3B or platoon 1B, but you won’t sign Donnelly, Brocail, etc. PITCHERS? Betemit, Duncan, Jason Lane, and Juan Miranda aren’t enough?
When the Yanks have five guys vying to be backup 1Bs to take as much playing time away from Giambi as possible, that’s ridiculous and a problem.
Chris,
My 4:20 am post was in response to the thread, not to anything you wrote. It was simply an opinion. A hit or miss prognostication. For ENTERTAINMENT purposes only.
So, please. Kindly get off my back. Thank you very much.
I see a bullpen with Mo, Farnsworth, Hawkins, Albaladejo, Traber, Veras, (Ohlendorf). It can be a fine bullpen probably not in the top five but if the starters pitch good and the offense hits like Yankees are supposed to hit the yankees will be fine. I don’t like all this talk about a rebuilding year or we might not make the playoffs let’s first see how spring training goes, there might be some nice surprises.
Far from done. Cash Money will be spending some soon.
Wow, Pete took a swipe at Farnsworth, never would have guessed that!
“Cashman messed up. He should’ve signed Troy Percival before re-signing Mo and veteran lefty relievers Jeremy Affeldt and Ron Mahay (primary and secondary lefties, respectively).”
The yankees offered Percival a contract. He turned it down because the wanted to be a closer and signed with Tampa Bay.
But then maybe Cashman should have smarted up and signed Percival made him the closer and told Mo he had to the set up guy?
Maybe that would make some irrational fans happy.
Ron Mahay was offered a deal and he decided to take sign with Kansas City. As the royals always have to, they overpaid him to sign (2 years for 8 million). Mahay turned down 3 year deals to take the Royals deal. Think about that – the royals overpaid him so much that he turned down a three year deal.
And he’s not that good. Look at how many guys he walks. His control is terrible. We’ve had enough with Farnsworth.
Affeldt signed with the reds because Cincy was offering him a chance to be a starter again. That’s what he wanted and they were the only team offering him that.
Or maybe Cashman should have been a smart GM and signed Affeldt, given him a spot in the rotation and sent Pettite to the pen?
If you’re going to criticize cashman, fine. But at least be familiar with the players you think he should have gotten and the transactions they were involved in.
Farnsdearth is only here because of Joe Girardi. Girardi believes he can turn Farnsdearth around into something deceit. I hope he does succeed for the sake of the team.
Let’s see: Mo, Hawkins, Farnsdearth, Britton, Phillips, Ohlendorf, and Rasner/Karsten/Joba/IPK/Mussina.
Sorry Pete, but I don’t think Mussina will have a comeback year, unless he found the fountain of youth or pitches against the Royals, Rays, or Indians everytime he pitches.
“If Joba starts the season in the ‘pen, that will solve a lot of problems.”
I have some questions for the pitching and conditioning mavens out there.
After a few months in the pen apparently the Yankees want to stretch Joba out and expect him to start throwing 6 effective innings every 5 days instead of an inning or two a couple of times a week.
How do you safely make that transition and how long does it take?
Haven’t heard anyone mention yet that last year Mo was far from the automatic machine we’ve all come to expect over the years. I know it may be sacrilegious in this forum to suggest, but should we be nervous about Mo? Should more have been written and said about the 4 year contract??
Could Joba end up as (gulp) the closer?
CB already made excellent points about why these guys weren’t signed, but I offer this:
Affeldt, 2007: K/BB – 1.39 BB/9 – 5.0
Affeldt, Career: K/BB – 1.55 BB/9 – 4.2
Mahay, 2007: K/BB – 1.49 BB/9 – 5.0
Mahay, Career: K/BB – 1.71 BB/9 – 4.4
I’m sure none of our youngsters could possibly duplicate these wonderful numbers. And carrying lefties just for the sake of carrying lefties is pointless. The best lefty hitters will still hit below average lefty pitching.
E-ROC
Not the Indians. They certainly don’t belong in that group. The Indians are very good.
chris,
get off it, percival and affeldt suck!
San Diego had one of the best pens in all of baseball last year.
How did they do it? Did they spend a lot of money or bring in a bunch of veterans?
No – they took some major chances and decided to see what would stick.
People talk about building a pen as if there is a surplus of pitching talent out there.
The need for quality arms dwarfs the supply, across baseball. Every team needs bull pen help – even teams like the Padres and Sox. There just aren’t enough established arms for those roles.
The yankees are doing this the right way at the present time. They have a multitude of options – many guys with good arms who are short on experience – and they’ll see what sticks.
There are no other better ways to build a bull pen. Year after year what’s available on the free agent market is pitiful and no one wants to trade good relievers unless the deal is ridiculously imbalanced.
John in Ohio–I agree. But Mussina has always had relative success against the Indians throughout his career.
Affeldt, Percival, and Mahay all wanted to multi-year contracts. The Yanks have been burned by this too many times to go down that road. The Yanks have a LOT of options out of the ‘pen. If one fails, you plug in another. It takes a bit of luck to have a successful bullpen.
Rivera will be fine, IMO. He was really used on a consistent basis last season.
Everybody keep your eye on Billy Traber
Hes a former first round pick.
Of all the lefty relievers we have in camp, he was best agaisnt left-handed batters last year for Washington..
He could be a real sleeper for a matchup-role..
What kind of stuff does Billy Traber have?
My faith in Girardi is inversely proportional to my lack of confidence in Farnsworth. Hmmm… If he can straighten him out (or, make him a bit more crooked and deceptive) and discourage him from making that disastrous attempt at a pickoff move to first – which inevitably ends up in the stands – then umm…maybe we have something. Here’s a bright side for you, Farnsworth seems to have overwhelming success against Ortiz.
E-Roc-
Well, Traber doesn’t have the kind of stuff they expected back in 2000 when he was first drafted by the Mets.. He was suppose to be a starter, but at 27, hes in the BP now..
But he faced 51 left handed hitters last year with Washington and held them to a .176 Avg.
I heard on the radio that Roger is going back to DC to refute the “evidence” that McNamee presented.
CB -
Thanks for being a “voice of reason” on this particular subject. There are people who don’t bother to let facts get in the way of their superior thinking when it comes to putting the Yankees together. And just because we Yankee fans seem to think that any player would sell his soul to get the opportunity to play in New York, that simply is not the case. And I for one am glad that Cashman was not tempted to throw money out there to acquire mediocre relief pitchers.
Given the dearth of real quality middle relief pitching out there, and the inconsistency of even some of the better than mediocre pitchers out there, I don’t see a problem with keeping it in-house, at least for now, at least until either something much better comes along or a desperate need arises. I don’t see the Yankees as being “desperate” for relief pitching right now. Do I think the bullpen situation has a lot of question marks? Absolutely! But there’s no slam-dunk out there, either.
This is funny. The Mets trade for the biggest fish in on the market.
This is the cover and back page of the Post
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02072008/frontback.htm
This is the NY Daily news
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/galleries/front_pages_/front_pages_.html
Billy Traber is the sleeper as a lefthander to make the team. Henn is out of options and will have to show well or get DFA’d or part of a late March deal.
Igawa in a similar situation but with options left.
Chase Wright has to make a transition from starter to reliever.
Heath Phillips is a longshot.
And the Mets now have this to contend with.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02072008/news/worldnews/pedros_fowl_ball_475252.htm
I knnow it is legal in the DR, but people here don’t think too highly of it.
I like Traber too, but I’m on the bandwagon of Heath Phillips.
CB pretty much said it all.
It always humors me when people complain about Cashman and his bullpen decisions. All of his decisions, for that matter.
It all comes down to one thing with them. SPEND MONEY!!!! That will solve EVERYTHING.
Doesn’t matter if you throw it away on journeymen such as Ron Mahay or Affeldt or anybody else, just SPEND MONEY!!!!
That solves everything. At least in their eyes.
Despite all the evidence we have seen over the years that spending money, just for the sake of spending it, doesn’t work, these folks still believe spending money is the answer. Especially, spending it on journeyman players.
Tell me a team that has successfully “bought” a bullpen? How did the Orioles do last year spending all that money on Jaime Walker and Baez?
Do you really think the White Sox spent their money well on a bullpen this off-season? That will be a disaster.
Oh, and how is that investment on Kyle Farnsworth working out for the Yankees?
Did you ever stop to think that maybe, just maybe, they feel the arms they have are as good as the dreak that was out there this off-season for bullpen options?
You don’t win by buying a bullpen.
They already have a great closer in Mo.
If they keep Joba in the bullpen, which is looking more and more likely, you can see the elements are in place for the bullpen to be pretty darn good.
Farnsworth and Hawkins can handle the 7th inning. If Jose Veras, or somebody else emerges, the bullpen won’t be an issue. If they don’t have somebody emerge, they can find somebody on the trade market.
Logic tells you however that, with the number of arms they have for bullpen duty, somebody is going to emerge. Just because we don’t know who that somebody is, doesn’t mean its not going to happen.
I am sure folks KNEW with CERTAINTY Hideki Okajima would transform the Red Sox bullpen at this time last year.
Its the beauty of sports. Not knowing who the next heroes will be.
Melancon is staying in Tampa and is basically going to follow the warm weather up the coast, with stops in each Yankee minor league level Tampa, Trenton, Scranton.
I have said it before and I’ll say it again. If he is healthy (which all indications are he is) he will be a factor in the second half of the year for the Yankees. The guy is a stud.
It sure as hell is better than wasting 9 million bucks on Ron Mahay.
Jennifer -
That’s really sad. But sensationalism (Clemens) will trump the mere great news every day. As for Manning, well, he deserves it!
Southpaw slant-
Right. They’re probably going to give Igawa every shot possable to earn a spot on the MLB roster because of them oney hes costing..
But if Girardi is a match-up guy, Traber could be a good guy to have on the roster. I hope they give him a good look this spring.
chris,
you are not impressing anyone with your rants. in fact you are making it more and more evident why you are alone and ranting at 5 am as opposed to snuggling with a woman.
chicks dont dig fanatics.
chill. besides the fact that you are wrong.
Anyone who claims to be able to predict how relievers will perform year to year is nuts. There are exceptions (That’s why Mo is the GOAT), but the vast majority of these guys are good for a year or two, then fade. Either the league catches up with them or they get burned out by over use. In most cases there is a reason they are in the position they are in: They are mediocre pitchers!
As to Chris, (BTW man, chill a little, huh?)Have you watched Affeldt pitch against the Yanks? We kill this guy.
I say, let the young, inexpensive kids that we control, fight it out for roster spots and we will find the next Nelson and Stanton internally.
Jennifer,
Clemens isn’t going to DC to refute the evidence against him. Its an already pre-arranged appointment to meet one on one with some of the committee members prior to his testimony next week.
I heard the same report and laughed out loud at how wrong it was.
Its amazing how some folks in the media business just can’t get it right. A quick Google search could have told them these meetings were already set up prior to this “evidence” coming out.
BTW, about this “evidence”? Every forensic scientist will tell you its worthless.
Unless this guy stored this “evidence” in pristine fashion, all this will turn out to be is a cheap PR stunt and nothing more.
They got the headlines they were looking for. Now, let’s see if there is more to it.
If there isn’t, then McNamee’s credibility is shot forever on this subject.
bullpens are a crap-shoot. Its all about getting on a good streak. Buying guys who had decent years last year rarely works and is very expensive. I like the approach of opening it up and seeing who shakes out. The BP was so bad last year that i think the law of averages will work to the yankee’s favor this season. that plus this is farn’s contract year. 2 or 3 guys are gonna rise up and have good seasons. Remember, we’re talking about middle relievers here. Out of this group will emerge a decent bullpen and hopefully that will allow Joba to start for most if not all of his alloted innings.
i still think it’ll be Mo and Joba at the back end when the team breaks camp… mostly due to the limit they have on Joba’s innings, and assuming Moose is guaranteed a spot in the rotation. I also think a lot depends on IPK coming to camp and being effective.
Mo
Joba
Hawkins
Farnsworth
Ohlendorf
Veras
Karstens
but if IPK does not have a good spring, slide Joba into the rotation and move Britton or Bruney into the MLB pen.
i have no doubt that Girardi will want a long reliver in this pen, so if it isnt Karstens, it’ll be Rasner.
While the ’smoking syringes’ may sway some of the general public, it appears they have little legal value.
http://tinyurl.com/2tnylv
sj44
Thanks, just goes to show you again and again how the media outlets are wrong!!
Notice how I put the word “evidence” in quote. We have no idea how he stored it, or if he tampered with it. Any lawyer worth his salt would get this thrown out in a court of law.
Why didn’t he ever tell Mitchell that he had evidence? He didn’t think that Roger would refute what was said?
Also lets for one second (for the purpose of this arguement) assume that those vials did contain roids, and hgh. Why would one save it for 8 years? I could think of one and only one reason. He wanted to save it to blackmail Roger.
i think its really crappy that the local papers buried Santana’s arrival. I’m a yankees fan but im also a baseball fan and i think this is a huge story that every new york baseball fan should appreciate, that the best pitcher in baseball is coming to town! The story about the vials, etc. may be something or may be nothing, we should find out in a week, but JS coming to town is going to be a huge part of this and future baseball seasons in NY.
TurnTwo-
So you think they’ll break camp without a lefty-reliever?
Or are those just the BP pitchers your sure are going to make it?
Chris at least do a little research before you post. Mike Myers was signed by the Dodgers to a minor league contract with an invite to st.
And troy Percivel hasn’t thrown over 50 innings since 2002! And he signed at 8 million for 2 years? You want to throw 4 million a year for a guy who won’t give you over 50 innings?
I dont think they NEED a lhp in the bp. If one of these guys can prove he’s capable of getting lefties out in a big spot, then it’s a bonus, but i wouldnt carry a lefty just for the sake of it (which is kind of what it felt like with Villone).
i think ppl are underestimating the value of joba in the rotation. Prospect evaluators have him pegged as a #1. The yanks should be extremly hesitant to take him away from developing all his pitches in the bigs. To save innings, they could treat him as the #5 starter and skip him whenever possible.
It may end up that they have to use him in the BP because nobody else stepped up, but they shouldnt put him there until all other possiblities have failed.
If they start Joba in the beginning of the season and then the pen cant hack it, they can switch him and still have enough innings left for him to pitch the entire 2nd half and PS in the pen.
But if the pen turns out to be able to hold leads without him, the yanks would get his entire 150 or whatever innings in 25 or so starts. I know that doesnt cover the entire season but that would be so great for the starting rotation, Joba for 25 starts! That alone removes the weakest link (moose?, igawa?, karstens?) from the regular rotation. It also gives Joba a full season of developing his #1 stuff on the major league level.
I hope he starts all season
Doreen,
I think you hit on an important point when you said:
“Do I think the bullpen situation has a lot of question marks? Absolutely! But there’s no slam-dunk out there, either.”
More and more it seems that many yankee fans can’t accept any uncertainty in the roster. People are so used to winning, the idea that the team doesn’t have the best possible solution for every spot on the roster is unacceptable.
And in turn they say Cashman isn’t doing the job.
Yankee fans take issues like first base, the bull pen, center field, the bench and blow them out of proportion. As you said – there’s no slam dunks – in any of those positions. But what’s the alternative? Sign more mediocre talent from the free agent market just to say we did something?
The yankees have already tried to put an all star or “experienced veteran” at every position. It didn’t work. It was just a waste of money.
As SJ44 said – in many fans minds improving the teams just really means spend more money on veterans rather than taking a chance on something you haven’t seen before.
Boston did that last year with Okajima and Lester and it won them a world series. Colorado did that with all of their kids and they got to the series.
What other team’s fans would make such an issue about a few positions not being completely worked out at the start of training camp?
We have to stop acting like putting a more expensive player at every position guarantees a world series.
turn two, I’d say that was more Mike Myers. Nice guy, but his last seasons here he couldn’t get a lefty out in a big spot if his life depended on it. Remember last year, game against Tampa we were up in the game (April 24). He gave up a gs to Carl Crawford. At that point we needed that game. We needed him to come up big, he came up very small.
jennifer, of course, how could i forget about Mike Myers.
to give him some credit, he shouldered a HUGE brunt of the load early last season with all of those injuries to the starting rotation… he actually did an admirable job, but we cant forget that the role he was supposed to fill specifically, to get lefties out, he was simply ineffective.
It’ll be interesting to watch..
I’m not sure what kind of a manager Joe will want to be here..
Maybe he won’t be as into matchups as he was in the NL.
But if one of those left-handers pitches decent in ST, it’ll be tough not to bring them along to the majors.
I have a torn rotator cuff and a touch of tennis elbow. As a result I can throw nothing but off-speed pitches, but they’re all more off-speed than Edwar’s killer change up. And I’m 43 so I bring ‘veteran presence’. Gobs of it.
If the team signs me for the league minimum (I’ll even settle for that w/o going to arbitration) I’ll try harder than Carl Pavano. I could use the $$ and they might even get more value out of me than Pavano this season.
The scary thing it that unless Pavano can somehow make a enough of a late-season comeback to pitch a single mop-up appearance this season, the very last part of that statement is true.
He’d have to throw 3 pitches though …. I think I could throw 2 before I start bouncing ‘em in there. But I’d get lifted before I can walk someone, which is more than he could guarantee.
If scouts could say I’m using the off speed stuff to set up my heater (never mind the heat is somewhere around the speed limit) I might be able to pull it off. “The guy has all the velocity of Hilvan Finch”.
“McNamee did not tell federal investigators about the syringes and pads when he first met with them in 2007. And he never discussed such evidence with investigators for former Senator George J. Mitchell…” (NYTimes)
McNamee’s curious “new” evidence will play well in the court of public opinion, perhaps the arena of choice for the Mitchell team needing to “prove” the singular revelation of their entire report.
But the court of public opinion was happy to convict Clemens the moment McNamee said “boo”.
BTW, I don’t know if Clemens juiced or not.
I’m just appalled at the level of “evidence” the court of public opinion (and Mitchell himeself) is willing to accept as conclusive.
i wouldnt get too wrapped up in this ‘evidence’. Any reasonalble consumer of sports news knows that “according to McNamee’s lawyers…” means it might be something or it might be nothing. I think the press is gonna publish it and people are gonna read it, but i dont think it sways too many people either way.
CB -
I really don’t understand the mindset that seems to think the Yankees are “supposed” to win every year, not only the division, but everything. Every. Year.
Anyone who has followed baseball over a period of years knows that every team has its ups and downs, INCLUDING the New York Yankees. Of course, you want them to win. You wouldn’t be a fan if you didn’t. But it’s not fair to EXPECT them to win, regardless of the dollars spent. I always maintain that as long as the Yankees remain competitive for the season they are doing what they should be doing. Sometimes I think it doesn’t register with some fans that other teams are actually trying to win themselves, that they’re not in existence simply to provide an opponent for the Yankees.
Plus, it’s been an awfully long time since the Yankees had enough young talent to actually draw on it for themselves. We marvel at other teams’ youngsters, but when it comes time to allow our team’s prospects to show what they can do, everyone gets cold feet. I sometimes wonder if Jeter, Mo, Posada and Bernie would have been allowed to develop had the Yankees not been the “almost” team of the early 90s, and the team without championships of the 80s.
Saw this referenced in Buster Olney’s blog this morning:
“SHEPPARD STRUGGLING Bob Sheppard, the Yankees’ distinctive public-address announcer since 1951, who missed the division series last October because of a bronchial infection, “is struggling to recover his health,†a spokesman for the Yankees, Howard Rubenstein, said Wednesday.
The team “hopes he can return to the booth,†Rubenstein added.
One of Sheppard’s sons, Chris, a retired navy aviator who is now a New York-based pilot for a major airline, seems to be interested in eventually following in his father’s footsteps. He will get a tryout during spring training at Legends Field in Tampa, Fla., Rubenstein said.
Chris Sheppard holds a speech degree from Marquette and taught the subject at Washington High School in Milwaukee. He declined to comment.
Sheppard’s backup at Yankee Stadium has been Jim Hall, a former colleague at St. John’s. Hall succeeded Sheppard as the Giants’ public-address announcer. ”
Link: http://tinyurl.com/2yxez8
Hopefully Mr. Sheppard can get to feeling better and get back to Yankee Stadium one last time before it closes. It also be nice to have him open the new stadium. It’s just not the same when you don’t hear his voice on the PA.
yazman, and I’d like to think the Mitchell asked him if he had evidence. So did he tell them, he didn’t have anything? If so why?, if he had this? Does he have it for any of the other guys he injected? This “evidence” just opens up more questions.
rodg12 -
Thanks for that information.
Doreen – I think that the mindset that the Yankees are suppposed to win every year comes from the owner on down. It starts in spring training that anything short of the World Series will be a failure. And any time the Yankees loose in the playoffs, in the locker room after the game, the players will tell you that the season was a failure. If the organization and players feel that way, why shouldn’t the fans?
One other thing to mention…
Looking at which players were brought in on minor league contracts @ 1b and comparing that to the bullpen is apples to oranges. Please realize that every team in baseball signs a bunch of veterans and other players who don’t have contracts and brings them to spring training. Ensberg or Lane would have to hit .500 in the spring in order to make the team over somebody on the 40-man roster. It’s standard practice and it’s a waste of time to dwell on it.
Any Yankee fan’s wish is that Bob Sheppard can at least work part time for 2008 in the only Stadium he has ever known other than the Meadowlands.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Sheppard
Fran,
You make a very good point. While I think it ought to be the goal of the organization to win it all every year, I think it is a disservice when fans and players discount quality seasons and quality performances because the ultimate goal was not reached. A failure to me would be if they played poorly and didn’t compete on a high level.
The thing is they’re not SUPPOSED to win every year. It would be really, really, really nice if they did, but you cannot ignore the fact that other teams are trying to win, too, AND in this climate more teams can compete in the off-season dollar-wise than ever before.
Can we say it comes down to semantics?
Good questions, Jennifer!
I’m really not usually a conspiracy theorist. Perhaps it’s the Mitchell/Red Sox conflict of interest (and similarly the Spector/Comcast conflict of interest) that gives rise to my inner Oliver Stone. The Mitchell team desperately needed Clemens to justify their work, and desperately needs McNamee to hold up in the court of public opinion.
Rodg12: Thanks for the article.
I don’t want to be depressing or anything of the sort, but I have a certain feeling about Bob Sheppard and, just…well, it’s a feeling. I won’t get too into it.
****
How many hitchhiker’s fans are there here? Does it surprise anyone that Mo’s number is 42?
Life, the Universe and Everything?
rodg12
Thanks for successfully making me sad.
I hope Bob can get to the stadium and at least do a few games. It would not be the same without him. I hate the other stadiums broadcasters, they yell and scream like it is a basketball game. It would be interesting to see if Bob’s son could follow in his footsteps. IT wouldn’t be the same, but it would be close.
Doreen,
Once again I completely agree. You’ve summed it up perfectly.
“Of course, you want them to win. You wouldn’t be a fan if you didn’t. But it’s not fair to EXPECT them to win,”
So many people still use as their point of reference the dynasty of the 1990’s. They assume the yankees will win rather than understanding that the yankees have to compete. It’s sports. The outcome is uncertain. That’s why its fun. If you knew beforehand what was going to happen and expect it to happen it wouldn’t be interesting. That’s why as boring as it sounds Jeter is right year after year when he says you have to win the games on the field (especially on the field).
So many people talk about the yankees building the team in the same way that they assemble their fantasy teams.
I also agree that this year will be enjoyable for a different reason. Following the progress of the kids will be terrific. It’ll add something to being a fan in addition to the team hopefully winning. I think that’s part of the reason why the last dynasty was so great – we watched the core of that team develop, come together and emerge.
Rebecca; ever heard of the band, Level 42?
(Do the math.)
“I think that the mindset that the Yankees are suppposed to win every year comes from the owner on down. It starts in spring training that anything short of the World Series will be a failure.”
And I think that attitude has started to make the whole team tighten up in the playoffs. Their whole attitude changed between the end of the regular season and the first game of the post-season, and it made them play worse.
Frankly, I think the biggest change that would help this team in the playoffs has nothing to do with adding talent. It has to do with bringing the same attitude that brought regular season success into the playoffs.
I also agree that this year will be enjoyable for a different reason. Following the progress of the kids will be terrific. It’ll add something to being a fan in addition to the team hopefully winning. I think that’s part of the reason why the last dynasty was so great – we watched the core of that team develop, come together and emerge.
YES!
From today’s NY Post:
Tino Martinez, working as a special instructor, joined the Yankees yesterday at the team’s minor league complex in Tampa, working with first baseman Shelley Duncan, who is competing for playing time this season.
If Tino can sort out Shelley’s footwork and positioning, Duncan could see a lot of playing time if he produces with his bat.
“I also agree that this year will be enjoyable for a different reason. Following the progress of the kids will be terrific. It’ll add something to being a fan in addition to the team hopefully winning. I think that’s part of the reason why the last dynasty was so great – we watched the core of that team develop, come together and emerge.”
AGREED!
The best thing about the Santana non-trade and giving the kids a chance:
The FLEXIBILITY it will provide Cashman. As CB said:
“The yankees are doing this the right way at the present time. They have a multitude of options – many guys with good arms who are short on experience – and they’ll see what sticks. There are no other better ways to build a bull pen.”
Sorry about being a downer guys. Just thought that was something you all would want to know.
Doreen,
I agree that while it would be nice to win every year it is harder to do with the revenue sharing and all of the teams now having money to spend. As long as the Yankees put a competitive product on the field and play hard fans should be happy. And by the way the Yankees do that every year.
I think that a lot of the younger fans were spoiled by the success of the Yankees in the mid-90’s on. They did not watch the Yankees through what I refer to as the Horace Clarke years!
I do really look forward to this season with Joe Girardi coming in and the young pitching staff.
“Prospect evaluators have him pegged as a #1. The yanks should be extremly hesitant to take him away from developing all his pitches in the bigs.”
——————————————————–
1) Everyone knows Joba WILL be a SP from 2009 on. This is NOT even a question.
2) IPs Joba has throw: 118(2005), 89(2006) and 112(2007).
He should be limited to 140 IPs in 2008, meaning 120 IPs in the regular sesason.
3) If Joba is (and he will be) in the BP this year, it is NOT because the BP is bad, but because of his IPs limitation. 20 starts (x 6 IPs = 120 IPs) is not quite 2/3rds of a year. This is NOT a matter of just skipping ‘a few’ starts.
4) If he is in the BP (for this 1/2 year only), he will be leveraged much higher, as in the BP, he will only pitch in close games where our odds of winning are highest. He will not be wasted on games where we are way ahead or way behind (which could happen in starts).
The Yankee FO is not stupid. They have ALL their finest pitching people coming up for the best usage plans for Phil, Joba and IPK. I’m sure they have multiple scenerios to anticipate every possible way the season might develop. They will NOT risk overusing Phil, Joba or IPK, but will figure out the most effective way for using them within their pitch limitations. I’m sure Karstens/Rasner will see some spot starts.
I do NOT believe the IPs limitations is a major issue as much as something to just plan for/around. I think we will ONLY have problems if there is some big combination of:
1) Moose stinks and is unusable
2) Karstens/Rasner both stink
3) Multiple pitching Injuries to our starting 6
4) None of our projected kids in the BP are any good.
The game is played on the field, and in any one year, you never know what may happen. But if the Yankees could win 94 games last year, with all the pitching injuries and what was a worse BP and SP then what we have this year, we should be fine.
We not only have a LOT of pitching talent but it would be easy for Farns, Iggy, Bruney, Britton and some others to have better years than leat year.
Cashman is smart. As he ALWAYS does, he will make mid-season aquisitions based on what is NEEDED at the time. There will be a lot more pitching talent available in July then there is now.
rodg12
It is, it just makes me sad to think one day I’ll be going to the stadium, and not hear Bob calling the lineups.
I knew it was coming, one game last year he was really struggling saying the lineups.
They did not watch the Yankees through what I refer to as the Horace Clarke years!
Fran -
That made me crack up!
CB…Murphydog…Doreen;
You are great to day, good job!
Billy Traber; I too, read somewhere, on one of the blogs, that lefties didn’t do well against him. I haven’t heard much else about him. Kei…now some pundants are saying he could be a good lefty option in the pen. I hope so.
Bruney/Britton, one of these guys was a lefty killer last year…which one (Bruney)?
Agreed, a Lefty just to have one? Not good! 27/08.
Britton dodn’t fall out of favor he barely played at all.Latroy ws a waste of money and spot in the bullpen.
CB,
Great points. People also forget that when referencing the Dynasty Years, they fail to bring up baseball has changed SIGNIFICANTLY since that time.
Namely, in the areas of luxury tax and revenue sharing. That has hurt the Yankees in a big way.
What Cashman is trying to do, and has been successful in doing so (since no team other than the Yankees have made the playoffs EVERY year since 1995), in minimizing the effects of the luxury tax and revenue sharing by doing more homegrown development of players. Namely, on the pitching staff.
Its pretty hard to rebuild/reload AND win at the same time. Especially in NY.
We are just seeing the fruits of this organnizational shift now. Hughes, Joba and Kennedy are just the beginning, not the end, of their careers. There are more arms coming. Perhaps as soon as this season.
Instead of declaring this a “failure”, as some Yankee fans are doing, and begging for the years when made more mediocore players multi-millionaires with dumb contracts, how ’bout we just chill and see how this turns out?
One thing some Yankee fans can’t get thru their thick skulls. Paying above average money to average players does NOT make them above average players.
That is, of course, unless you think the Ron Mahay’s, Scott Linebrink’s, Octavio Dotel’s, and Jeremy Affeldt’s of the world are above average players.
If you think that way, there is no helping you. You are doomed to be classified as a “clueless fan” forever.
Jeez, way to go Pedro!
http://www.nypost.com/seven/02072008/news/worldnews/pedros_fowl_ball_475252.htm
The Yankees are fortunate to have had Mariano as their closer for as long as it’s been but he has seen many bullpen mates come and go during his time. It’s the nature of the beast.
Absolutely no team goes to spring training without bullpen questions. Longevity is not the staple of ANY major league bullpen. They vary from year to year depending to some degree of what the starting staff is made up of. Quality starts mean less strain on a bullpen. What a team starts and ends a season with for bullpen names can change within 5 or more for most teams. Relievers must possess a certain mental and physical quality opposed to a starter having a programmed routine between starts.
Shelly Duncan:
Major League Totals – 1 Season(s) 0074 .257 .329 .554 .883
Minor League Totals – 7 Season(s) 2650 .257 .340 .482 .822
We can all hope that Shelly has matured and can be an important part of the Yankees, but one HAS to consider his MiLB numbers: 7 seasons, over 2600 ABs.
Tino posted an average OPS+ of about 116 (about an .832 OPS)and 28 HRs/yr. Shelly could match these offensive numbers, but Tino was EXCELLENT on D where Shelly is below average. It is possible that Shelly could be an everyday 1st baseman, or certainly against LHPs, but we should understand why the Yanks and looking at other options.
We made fun of Dougout M. last year, but we know his glove took away a number of hits and saved both Jetes and ARod a number of errors. I don’t think it will be his bat, but his glove, that keeps Shelly out of the lineup at 1B.
Doreen – “They did not watch the Yankees through what I refer to as the Horace Clarke years!”
Fran – That made me crack up!
———————————————
That’s only because YOU didn’t have to watch them!
I did, and believe me, there was a lot more crying then laughing!
Buddy -
Not a great thing, but he was in the Dominican and it is legal there. Sigh.
Omigod, Rebecca – I haven’t read hitchhikers since high school (and that was a while ago).
On Sheppard – let’s keep him in our prayers. Whatever your faith, there is certainly benefit in positive thinking. I agree with Rodg that we need him to close out the old and bring in the new.
Finally, on the “evidence” – here’s the problem I see. This won’t be admitted in court in any criminal action against Clemens. Would it be admissible in the civil action against McNamee? Interesting thought and I would have to know more about what the “lab” tests ultimately find. Even if the results are not conclusive — and I personally believe this is somehow manufactured — I fear this is enough for McNamee to at least create enough doubt that this will never be resolved and Clemens will have this cloud over his head forever. That is the sad part here.
Ah, Old Yanks Fan -
I will admit that at that time I was not even a baseball fan, but my brother was a Yankees fan and I do remember seeing some of the Yankee games of the time, and Horace Clark was a “standout.”
“What Cashman is trying to do, and has been successful in doing so (since no team other than the Yankees have made the playoffs EVERY year since 1995)…”
Lots of outstanding points as usual, SJ44. Any Knicks fans in the crowd know that spending the most $ helps, but it does NOT guarantee winning (or even decent) teams.
Yes Doreen – Horace Clarke certainly “stood out”.
SJ44,
As usual, your points, particularly about the financial dynamics of the game, are spot on.
As yankee fans, we tend to see the economics of baseball as peripheral taking the yankees to be more like a bank than an organization.
In football, it’s been easier for fans to see the impact that institution of a hard salary cap (with non-guaranteed contracts) has on the composition of a team. Every roster spot comes down to an explicit cost-benefit decision. Good veterans get cut all the time.
With baseball, the indirect methods for leveling the financial playing field (as imperfect as they are) are much more indirect and more difficult to see. I think that was true even inside the industry – it took people several years to see what the impact of revenue sharing and the salary cap was going to be.
Luckily Cashman was one of the first to see this and restructured the organization to address that (just in time – if they’d waited any longer the team would have been a mess).
The game is totally different than it was in the 1990’s. Now with revenue sharing (and the overall increase in the industry’s revenues) the vast majority of teams have the resources to sign good young pitchers to big money, long term contracts.
Once that happened the entire approach the yankees were using to try to “win at all costs” fell apart.
Take the Padres giving Peavey that $52 million extension or the Twins even being able to offer santana 5 yrs/ 100 million. The royals signing Meche, etc. All of those things would have been unimaginable during the 1990’s when the yankees were winning championships.
The competative climate is entirely different. That’s why the yankees haven’t won a championship this decade. As you said –
“Paying above average money to average players does NOT make them above average players.”
But after revenue sharing, the vast majority of “talent” that makes it to the market is only the average to below average types.
The yankees have wasted enough time on that. If you don’t grow your own talent, especially with arms, you won’t have any talent. Not even if you are the yankees or the sox.
It’s not an option. It’s a reality of baseball’s new competitive landscape.
Random question.
Anyone know if MLBtv will allow us to watch Spring Training games? I am a subscriber to MLBtv for the regular season and am just wondering if they will allow us to buy the ability to see spring training games. Anyone know?
USA Today has reported Sports Weekly’s top 100 players that will impact 2008. Joba is at #2 and they expect him to be the yankees 5th starter even if he starts the season in the bullpen. Check it out at http://www.usatoday.com
I really don’t expect this team to win the WS. Or even make the playoffs for that matter. Lots of unknowns on the roster particularly the pitching. I look for 09 potentially being a better year.
CB-
Excellent points & great writing, any plans for your own blog?
Shy of obtaining one of the game’s premier closers to set up and then possibly succeed Mo (Nathan?), I think the throw-kids-to-the-wall-until-some-stick strategy will yield the best results.
Far better than paying for proven average or inconsistent vets.
It’s just THRILLING when a kid does perform (and Joba wasn’t the first SP tested in relief last year).
Long time blog reader, first time poster. I always love reading all your comments.
Mo will be dominant. He may not be as good as he used to be, but he’s still one of the best closers in baseball. If not for the rocky April last season, his numbers would have been as dominant as ever. I have absolutely no worries about Mo.
I think Joba will start the season in the rotation and move into the bullpen in August, appearing in close games at the time of the season when every game is a must-win.
I think Hughes will put up very respectable numbers.
I can’t wait to see the bullpen competition. I’m 18, and it was always my dream as a kid to play for the Yankees. Nothing could make me happier than seeing these young players living their own dreams, walking onto the field at Yankee Stadium, and helping the Yankees win. I’ve been a Yankee fan since the early 90’s(age 4 or 5) and I think this youth movement is what the team should have done 6-7 years ago. Kudos to Brian Cashman for not throwing away money by the next generation of Kyle Farnsworths but instead sticking with the youngsters.
Im very surprised that the media has pointed out that had Hank & Cashman picked Mattingly over Girardi, we would have been in deep trouble right now heading into Spring Training.
This might be the biggest offseason move after all!
FYI, went over to Legends Field yesterday and they have put an addition on in right field. There is now a big party deck from the foul pole over to right center field. There are seats that look somewhat like bar stools with tables in front of them…maybe about 10-15 rows of them. Then up behind that there is a huge bar. They’re basically just printing money. They will also rent it our for Bucs football games next year so you can have tailgate parties there.
Morning all.
Well, I was peeved last night about a certain rant, but of course I feel much better now. Seems like we’re all so passionate about the Yankees, we just express it in different ways.
The point I was trying to make last night to Chris is that individually, or even collectively, there is very little that we can do about 1B or the bullpen or Matsui’s knees or Jeter’s range.
People act as if Cashman is not aware of the gaping holes in the bullpen and at 1B. When are people going to figure out there are no other options at this point. If there was a Tex or a Nathan laying around don’t they realize that $tein-Ca$h would be able to buy it in a second? As for trades, NO ONE wants to help the Yankees. Exhibit A: Minnesota Twins. Exhibit B: Eric Gagne (lol on that one).
Every team, as pointed out by Doreen and SJ44, has a hole someplace. Starting depth, closer, lineup. Heck some teams (the Twins) don’t even have a genuine DH. So for those who insist that we must do something about the situation, please get Cashman on the phone and let him know about the problems at 1B and in the bullpen. Maybe Cashman’s not aware there’s a problem.
I’m just trying to say, chill out, enjoy the team we got, and see what happens. As Cashman’s demonstrated, he’s not afraid to make changes mid-season or step on toes. He’s always looking for ways to improve the team. And please don’t bring up past mistakes. All GM’s make them and he’s doing his best to fix what’s broken.
OK, end of rant.
You guy’s are so insane, if the yankees reached the post season last year [without ANY pitching in the first two months] Than they’ll definetly reach it this year!!
Guys have some faith in yoor team, and if you don’t be ashamed to call your self yankee fans!!
Hey, Ben! I can read your tag correctly now, it says happy,not haooy.
‘I’m just trying to say, chill out, enjoy the team we got, and see what happens’
Mel can only agree with you.
Mel when did it say differently?
Oops, your p, g, and y’s are getting cut off again, still better than yesterday.
Good morning Mel! Glad to see another voice of reason is up and posting this morning. As I recall, we went through this same exercise before last spring training – with panic ruling the streets. I can only agree with you now –
Relax everyone. There is a reason they do what they do and we, quite frankly, don’t.
Ben,
When Pete changed the shell of the blog, it cut the tails off of certain letters. p, g, y, q, j. Someone else confirmed it did that for her, too. It was in yesterday’s thread. Yours was funny because “Huohes was staved”
Even the letters on the previous thread/next threads at the top get cut off.
It probably has something to do with my browser. I refuse to use Firefox and am still using IE.
Kind of hard for me to get on board with folks predicting “no playoffs” before the first ST workout.
They play the games for a reason.
Are the Yankees a team in transition? Yes.
That doesn’t mean they won’t be a good team.
I don’t know, call me crazy but, a team with Arod, Jeter, Pettitte, Wang, Cano, Rivera, Posada and Chamberlain (just naming a few guys) seems to me to be a good team.
Does it have holes? EVERY TEAM in baseball has holes. Its how and whom plugs them which will determine the fate of the team.
No predict, “no playoffs” is, at least to me, a prediction made by someone who hates Cashman and wants to be proven “right” if it comes true.
If they make the playoffs, especially in a transition year, then the battle cry will be, “no World Series, the season is a failure”.
Its always something for the half empty crowd.
yeah, my name kinda looks like it says saucv
Oh thats funny didn;t relize that, I’m using IE and have no problems
pete’s bio is almost impossible to read, as well…
Ben,
PC or laptop? Maybe the dimensions of the browser are important. I’ve mentioned it several times, but I guess I have to e-mail Pete.
saucy,
You can’t fool me, you changed yours to saucv.
That Chris character is a moron. Troy Percival is doo doo, pure and simple. He got beaten like a drum in Detroit because he got taken yard every 3 innings. He’s also going to turn 39 in August.
Jeremy Affeldt is another bag of crap. Kind of putting it together for 60 IP in Colorado after throwing horribly for KC doesn’t count for jack. Especially considering that he walked 33 in his 59 IP.
And he wanted Ron Mahay because Ron Mahay had a pretty serviceable year between Texas and Atlanta. Yep. After posting a 5.04 combined between 2005 and 2006. So, yeah, Chris, save your comments.
Chris goes on to advocate the acquisition of Rheal Cormier, who got his feet wet in 1991 with the Cards. The fact that he’s turning 41 3 weeks into the season is apparently of no concern. Never mind the fact that he was good for all of 3 IP last year. He couldn’t hack it in the NL East in 2005, either.
If a trend is emerging, it’s that Chris evaluates bullpen possibilities on the basis of one or two good years. Bullpen pitchers are largely fungible precisely because they’re not, by nature, good. Outside of setup and closer, you’re not filling your bullpen with world beaters. And while it’s true that no one’s Chris has mentioned is truly, truly abysmal, I just don’t understand the idea of filling the pen with 40-year-old career 100 ERA+ guys. Let’s continue.
Well, he likes Trever Miller, too. Who can say why. This guy fits the mold of the other 4 Chris has mentioned. Why he wants to throw good money at mediocrity is beyond me. The Yankees can certainly throw together some combination of the guys on their 40 to give them 350-400 IP at 100 ERA+ or marginally better.
A Yankees bullpen that contained Miller and Cormier would be utterly unacceptable. Chris loses.
Buddy,
Glad to hear you liked the comments. No plans to start a blog – as Yankee fans we’re lucky that there are so many good yankee blogs already! I enjoy the interaction with others posters – that’s what makes submitting a comment fun.
Not going to get into name-calling but at least Chris got some people’s blood going (right mel?).
One thing I’ve noticed in the short time I’ve been reading this blog is the large number of pessimists who cry tthat the sky is falling at every opportunity. Wait until the Yanks start losing RS games before you start in on how bad the pitching is folks.
I actually feel better about this team as currently composed than I did about last years team. We have actually seen Phil, Joba, and Ian pitch in MLB. We couldn’t say that about Igawa, and Pavano was a big question mark last year.
I’m perfectly fine with the Yankees possibly not making the playoffs. I rather watch the kids develop and see who else comes up from the farm and makes an impact.
Jesus Christ. It continues. Doug Brocail??!? This guy’s not even average! An ERA+ of 84 over 2005-06 should demonstrate that. He’ll turn 41 in May.
And Brendan Donnelly, who has arm problems, has already been offered an MiLB deal by Cleveland. So that’s what dreaming gets you. He managed 20 IP last year. I don’t know what he can count on this year unless he makes a miraculous recovery from Tommy John surgery he underwent in 8/2007.
Chris got some peoples’ blood going because his suggestions ranged from stupid to odd. It’s one thing to criticize Cashman, but do it sensibly and try to base it on an understanding of the game of baseball.
The Yankees will be fine. And they’re set up much better for the long term than they were 5 years ago.
good point SJ, i don’t know why there are so many doubters.
the red sox bullpen last year was predicted to be a disaster…and we all know how that turned out. i’m completely with cashman on going with some young arms in the pen.
the tribe did well with that strategy last year.
i’m very worried about bob sheppard, hoping for the best, but i guess we’d better prepare ourselves. he is 97 after all. it’s just impossible to imagine him not being able to announce the last game in the stadium this year.
miss the playoffs? this team won more games than any other team from june 1 on. This team is in the hunt for the WS crown!
IMO there is a good chance that the pitching staff, both starters and relievers will be better this year.
If they dont stagger out of ST like last year, they can make a run at 100 wins.
Yanksrule,
I only got peeved after he (she?) called me out. I don’t have a problem with people expressing their opinions, but I’m old-fashioned in that I’d like for people to do it without getting personal.
He thought my thoughts were foolish, but I never, ever put something completely crazy out there just to stir something up. My ideas are a bit outside the box (translation: I don’t know what I’m talking about), but they’re always logical and well-thought out.
What I really wanted to say, was learn some MF manners, but that would’ve been rude, huh?
I shouldn’t take it personally. I just think that we’re a civilized society of higher-order beings, and we should be able to discuss and disagree respectfully. I know it’s silly, but is that to much to ask?
Include me in the “No playoffs” camp.
I can’t envision the Yankees advancing in the playoffs. If the innings caps constrain 60% of their rotation, the effect of their absence will manifest at some point. Either Joba, Hughes, IPK are prevented from pitching important games in the middle of the season, in the stretch drive, or in the playoffs.
Apart from the inning caps, they all will face strict pitch count totals as well, placing a considerable strain on their bullpen– not that the Yankee bullpen isn’t accustom to it anyway.
The only major gripe I have with Cashman about the bullpen– I vehemently disagree with his Santana decision of course– is the foolishness of signing Hawkins, when for an additional $3.5 million he could have re-signed Vizcaino.
(The FO’s supposed concern about Vizcaino’s innings totals last year didn’t persuade me– Viz has pitched 70+ innings 3 of the last 4 years, and 4 of the last 6.)
The Yankees enter 2008 with more unknown quantities and unanswered questions than at any time in recent memory. They might excel, notwithstanding. But I wouldn’t bet on it.
Two players to watch: Giambi, entering his walk year, and Shelley Duncan. If Giambi can rebound and produce the way he did in 2006 and Shelley Duncan’s number last year hold over 400 ABs, the Yankees should score 900+ runs.
That will keep them competitive, but in the end, I can’t seem them eclipsing Boston in the East or the loser of Cleveland/Detroit and Seattle/Anaheim.
The pitching injuries have already started in baseball.
Kelvin Escobar will start the year on the DL with shoulder problems for the Angels.
There is some talk that if rehab doesn’t work, he will have season ending surgery.
I don’t understand the Seattle love right now. The Bedard trade has not been made and, even if it is, there is no guarantee they will match last season’s run.
Cleveland? The Yankees beat them like a drum in the regular season and lost in the post-season when the bugs turned that entire series. Its not like the Yankees can’t compete with the Indians.
The Red Sox? The Yankees won the last FOUR series with the Red Sox last year.
My point is, the Yankees were neck and neck with these teams, despite the fact that they weren’t healthy the first 2+ months of the season.
They also had Jeter playing hurt (very hurt) the entire second half of the season.
They aren’t as “far” away as folks may think. Unless, of course, you believe none of the younger players will improve.
Kill-Shill,
It’s pretty uncanny, because everything you say is true.
But you never know what’s going to happen once the season starts or even throughout the season. You have injuries to key players on favored teams. You have breakout performances on non-contending teams. All of a sudden guaranteed wins aren’t so guaranteed. Who would’ve guessed that the Royals would have a better record than the White Sox, who won the World Series just a few years ago?
That’s why they play the games,and you know that every year the Yankees have a fighting chance. That’s what makes baseball so fun to watch.
Chris – that’s a lot of “what if’s.” The Yankees have options and you tell me what team doesn’t have holes? Tell me a team where if their star player or prospect ended up slumping/sucking that the team wouldn’t have a hole that they couldn’t fill. The Yankees have 6 pitcher who are/prospect to be very good starting pitchers. Move 1 to the bullpen and 1 ends up sucking and you have 4 solid starters and 1 suck. What team has a stacked 1-5 starting rotation? None.
The bullpen has a lot of other options who will be coming throughout the year – either kennedy, joba, or moose, then you’ve got Horne and Sanchez coming later. Stop discounting players because they have no MLB experience. Joba didn’t. There are a lot of factors into making a good reliever.
And as for 1B – there is nothing wrong with having a platoon or even 5 guys trying out. Why not make it 10, who cares. These guys are fill-in’s until we can scoop up a legit player.
The Yanks plan to have Abreu for more than 1 year. So, they give him 16 million and he has no contract next season – which means he is playing for the right to a new contract next year. The Yanks play it year by year with players – a few extra million to keep the contract short and they will take it.
sj44 –
I hope you realize that there are some here who are cataloging your every post, waiting to pounce if during the season you get even a little impatient with our Yankees.
But, seriously, I would love to know if the fans of other teams are this pessimistic before spring training even starts — heck, before pitchers and catchers have even reported? I always thought that this was supposed to be the most OPTIMISTIC time of the baseball season — all the possibilities wide open, fresh starts and all that. What gives?????
I mean at least now we don’t have anything going on on the field to mar our happy thoughts!
geez! why all this no playoffs talk before spring training? Didn’t we win 94 last year? only clemens, phillips and viz are gone and we’ve got young arms to replace those innings!
World Series this year!
SJ,
Like you said earlier, people want to say it now so that if it finally happens they can say they said before ST. If the Yankees didn’t start so badly last year the would have won the east. IMO, after the Yankees got healthy they owned Boston, it was the schedule makers that had them play the Sox 12 times in the first 9 weeks of the season.
This team will be better than last years team and most of the better bullpens in the MLB have come out of no where and were then thought of as great bullpens.
Spring training is the time of year when everyone is optimistic about making the playoffs.
Fran -
That’s what I thought!
There are a lot of teams with questions on it. Lets take our neighbors to the North
Will Beckett have a seson like last year, or will he revert back to his 2006 form? Schilling is another year older, he has already shown age, will he continue to break down? Dice K, Did he wear down, or did the league figure him out? Wakefield, another year older, can he get healthy? That is just 4 people from the rotation.
Now lets move to the field, was lowell’s season just a career year, will he revert back? Ortiz, has his weight, or other things caught up with him? Will Manny just be Manny or will he go all out being a contract year? V-tek will he continue to slide, or he is on the downside of his career and only get worse?
So to those nagative bloggers, there are questions on every team.
then i want to be the guy who said before ST that the Yanks are gonna win the WS!
Negative posters:
Back in the NFL pre season, how many people picked the Giants to win the Super Bowel for any reason more rational than just that they’re your favorite team?
Blaming Cashman (or whomever) in advance for the Yanks missing the ‘08 playoffs? C’mon … at least try to enjoy being a fan.
If they could make it to October ‘07 with all the health misfortunes that came up, they have a very solid chance at it going into this year.
If the Yanks are 5 back in May, I don’t want to hear it. Especially if they’re not screwing up and Boston or Toronto start of really hot. If they’re 5 up in May, what will you say then?
It’s the querstions about the younger players, sj44, coupled with concerns about the older guys as well.
1) How will anyone of the rookie starters perform over the course of an entire major league season? Are Joba, Hughes, and IPK the modern version of Glavine, Smoltz, Avery; Zito, Hudson, Mulder; or Isringhausen, Pulsipher and Wilson. How can any of us answer to this question?
2) Do the Yankees have a single arm in the bullpen they can rely upon, apart from Mo? Will Farnsworth continue to be an erratic, unreliable disaster? Will Ohlendorf and Veras flourish as expected or will they falter? Can Bruney learn to throw strikes? Will Mo finally start to show his age? MO was far from dominating last year. Too often, he reminded me of Wettleland in ‘96
3) How can Posada and A-Rod possibly duplicate last season’s offensive production in 2008?
4) Is Giambi done or will he recover from his injuries and return to his 2005 and 2006 production?
5) Was Matsui’s year in 2007 an aberration, a season plagued by his knee injury, or the beginning of his decline?
6) Same questions abound concerning Damon. Was last year’s season an aberration, marred by injuries and poor conditioning, or the beginning of a regression in his skills?
7) Does Cano’s contract make him complacent?
9) Is Andy Pettite affected by the steroids controversy? Does the distraction impair his performance?
(I’m also assuming the Bedard to Seattle trade is a fait accomplis once they agree on the final details.)
Jennifer –
You forget — according to the all-knowing, Boston will only get better — they do not age, they do not ail.
Of course, Posada cannot possibly reproduce his fantastic season, but you KNOW that Mike Lowell absolutely will!
And on, and on, and on!
Wow, Kill-Shill, I bet you have dark wood paneling on your walls. Just kidding. Like I said, all very valid points, but c’mon, you’re not really expecting all that to happen? That’s almost Nostradamus-like.
My perfect season, Giants beat Pats, Yanks dethrone Sox!
Lets Go Yankees!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jennifer – I money is that Beckett does NOT repeat last year. I’m not 100% sure on this but I believe last year was only his 2nd or 3rd FULL year with no significant injuries (where he had to miss a month out of the season). Boston had EVERYTHING go their way last year. Could it happen again? Of course, but no likely in my estimation with questions about Schill, Wake, Tek, the list goes on.
Also, if for some reason the decision is made that Joba starts in the pen. We wont’t need to have this “pen” discussion any longer. He would dramatically change the complexion of the team from that standpoint, even though I do hope he is given a shot to be a potential stud starter.
Doreen you are right, nothing goes wrong in Boston or elsewhere. Only Yankee players age, or have bad seasons.
great points jennifer. it is true that their pitching was a disaster in 06, but i think beckett has figured it all out and if he can remain blister free, he’ll remain a stud. BUT …lets hope
schilling continues on his downward path. wakefield hasn’t got much left. i guess the big question for them will be how dice-k actually shakes out.
lester and laptops are question marks, but look like they are the real thing.
i’m betting that lowell will return to his old form and it is certainly clear that ortiz is breaking down after all the steroids and HGH.
manny has gone down for several weeks at a time the last two years.
that team has a lot of great young guys, but more question marks than would be supposed by the average fan.
Kill-Schill(ing)
In your first point “How can any of us answer these questions?”
You essentially have be stating the Yanks will not make the post season. Because for that to happen, many if not all of your points would have to be answered negatively. I dissagree (respectfully) with you.
Someone aldready pointed to the USA Today article. But when was the last time anyone thought the Yankees would feature so many of the “next wave of players coming into the majors, who, in our view could make the biggest impact during the [upcoming] season”?
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/baseball/2008-02-06-names-to-know_N.htm
From the Top 100:
2. Joba
21. IPK
25. Shelly Duncan
30. Edwar Ramirez
87. Jonathan Albaladejo
(BTW, 91. Tyler Clippard)
I think Shelly’s and Edwar’s rankings may be a stretch (but I hope not).
You can make that list about every team in baseball.
If the Yankees got Johan Santana, the big question(s) would be:
How will he handle NY?
Was his bad second half an aborration or something more significant?
Neither one of those questions we could answer at this time.
Every team has question marks going into a season.
The Yankees are no different and wouldn’t be any different even if they got Santana.
Many of the issues you raise would still be issues. Only difference is, the Yankees wouldn’t have the flexibility to do anything about it if they got Santana.
I don’t think the steroid issue will have any effect on Pettitte. If it did, he wouldn’t have come back since he knew stuff was swirling around at the time he announced his return.
Its just another media driven “distraction” story that gets fans in a lather. With a runner on second and third and one out in his first start of the season, Andy Pettitte won’t be thinking about HGH. He will be thinking about making good pitches and getting out of the jam.
The biggest derailment to the Yankees this year is health. If they stay healthy, they will be a more diverse and more balanced team than they were a year ago.
Also, don’t discount the change in the manager’s chair. Usually, when you change managers/coaches, it has a minimal effect.
However, in this case, Girardi/Eiland are going to be big factors this season. Most notably in how they handle the young arms and the bullpen. Also, getting the team off to a good start, something that hasn’t happened 2 of the last 3 years, is going to be important.
Too often, during those poor starts, Torre’s laid back style was not the best way to handle the situation. That’s going to change under Girardi.
Under Girardi, veterans who want to “play their way into the season” won’t be playing. They have already been told to come to ST in shape.
I don’t think its a coincidence that even a guy like Derek Jeter, certainly a non-slacker, is probably in the best shape of his life, coming into a ST.
New blood at the top makes everybody want to impress the boss. Its one of the benefits of change.
Also, younger players won’t be buried on this team any longer. That puts an extra step into the younger guys…..knowing they will get a chance to play if they play well.
All in all, there is a lot to like about this team. Just have to get ST started and see if potential translates itself to results on the field.
Yazman,
I think Edwar’s a stretch. He has that great changeup, but that’s about it.
The reason I said in my 4:20 post that Edwar and Bruney would be replaced in the pen, is because the guys behind them are better. We relied on them because we had to.
If Posada hits .290 and hits 22HR, it will still be an above average season for him. He’s a career .277 hitter who’s averaged about 22HR per year.
To expect him to match or even come close to last year’s .338 average would be insane. He’d only hit higher than .280 twice before and .290 would be the second best batting average in his career. Unfortunately, people would still be saying his career’s in decline even if he hits .290 this year.
Can he continue with the .277/22HR average for the next 4 years? Probably close for 3 out of the 4 IMO. But we’d be guessing at this point, wouldn’t we? If he only hits .275/18HR we shouldn’t rip him, or Cashman. That’s not bad for him.
A-Rod should still hit .300+ and knock 40+HR. But even if he hits .302/41 critics will tear him a new one for such a ‘career decline’ after last year.
schilling’s shoulder is bad… will miss start of ST.
Kill-Schill(ing,
”
1) How will anyone of the rookie starters perform over the course of an entire major league season? Are Joba, Hughes, and IPK the modern version of Glavine, Smoltz, Avery; Zito, Hudson, Mulder; or Isringhausen, Pulsipher and Wilson. How can any of us answer to this question?”
You forgot Maddux on that Brave team and all 3 Mets pitchers never made it.
I also think or hope Joe G will be more consious of making sure his relievers don’t get too much or too little work. He won’t sit someone like Edwar who pitched good games, than rotted on the bench, than was asked to preform in a high pressure situation and failed.
Or I’d like to think he won’t be pitching Mo in a 5 run game, and wear him out.
“mel-but I never, ever put something completely crazy out there just to stir something up. My ideas are a bit outside the box (translation: I don’t know what I’m talking about), but they’re always logical and well-thought out.”
I wish I cant say the same about me. What kind of reaction do you expect to get when your posting at 1 pacific time? Lets say it together. IM ADDICTED TO THIS BLOG. I have a very important job and find myself reading and posting more than working. Help might be needed.
Boston, are you being serious?
Usa Today, Sports Weekly, has made a list of the 100 new (players that didn’t spend most of last year [even if they are not a rookie according to MLB] in the majors) players that will IMPACT 2008. The yankees on the top 50 of the list are as follows – 2) Joba Chamberlain, 21) Ian Kennedy, 25) Shelley Duncan, 30) Edwar Ramirez. All the players above are expected to help the team at some point during the year. Joba will either start or relieve at the beginning and do the other latter he’s projected as a future #1 starter but in 2008 will probably be the yankees #5 starter. IPK they expect will either be #4 or #3 during the season but might start with long relief first. Shelley will be part of 1st base’s platoon or off the bench. Edwar might start the season in the minors but has a chance at winning a relief spot in ST.
Jennifer: http://www.rotoworld.com/content/playerpages/playerbreakingnews.asp?sport=MLB&id=1519&line=228592&spln=1
All the points you raise in rebuttal are fair ones SJ44.
But to be honest, since 1997, I can’t recall ever being less confident or hopeful about the Yankees prospects than today entering 2008. (That isn’t to say, I’m not more sanguine about their distant future; I am. But like Keynes once wrote, “in the long-run, we’re all dead.”)
By the way, if Santana were a Yankees, you might have the questions you raised in your last post. I wouldn’t.
To my mind, Santana’s acquisition would have elevated their rotation to among one of the best in baseball, guaranteed the Yankees a playoff spot, and placed them among the one or two teams with the best odds to win the World Series.
I have no doubt Santana will thrive in New York. Is that certainty unwarranted perhaps? But then again, I prefer sure, proven commodities to unknowns. Just a personal preference, I gather.
Making up lists of doubts about teams in spring training isn’t real productive.
Not because you don’t want to address weaknesses, but because every team in baseball has significant holes. Every one – including every team that made the playoffs last year.
Look at what just happened to the Angels and Kelvim Escobar’s shoulder injury. Last year he finally had the break out year everyone was waiting for. The results finally matched the stuff and he was central to the angels success.
Now he might be out for the year. So much for that. On top of that the Angels minor league system has stopped producing top notch arms. Ervin Santana hasn’t developed the way they were hoping and their top prospect Nick Adenhart has regressed a bit as he’s gone up through the minors.
Without Escobar that anemic offense gets even more stressed. Their bull pen even started deteriorating last year. Scott Shields had a terrible seond half and may have started the rapid decline phase that’s become all too common with relief pitchers.
The yankees have a lot of questions. But something they have that’s a critical advantage is depth. They have depth in terms of arms and also now with position players (molina, duncan, betemit).
That depth will make up for a lot of weaknesses this year while other teams that appear to be stronger will falter because they are thinner and more brittle.
SJ,
I enjoy reading your posts. It just amazes me that you have to actually explain to some people why we shouldnt count the Yanks out before spring training starts. Did everyone forget that our opening day starter last year was no other than PAVANO? Did everyone forget that we had injuries to Abreu,Matsui and all of our pitchers before May hit? Come on folks. I get the feeling that some of you are getting to be more like Sox fans than Yankee fans(where they come in year after year wondering what will go wrong.till recently).
Doreen,
I for one always expect my team to contend for the World Series and get upset when we dont. I dust myself off and do it all over again the following year. Thats whats wonderful about rooting for an Orginization that takes pride in winning and giving us the chance of that on the field.
Jack you missed the newly aquired Albadajo he’s more to the end of the list.
Marc, I excluded Maddux because the Braves signed him as a free-agent. He really came up through the Cubs organization. So if I included Maddux among the list, the parallel between the Braves and the Yankees relying on three homegrown rookies wouldn’t have been exact.
Anyway, how funny would it be if Roger ran into Mcnamee and decked him!!
I’m with you S.o.S.27
Thanks Dan, this just goes to prove my point that there are questions everywhere.
y’sguy-If they dont stagger out of ST like last year, they can make a run at 100 wins.
Count me in with your prediction. We have a better team starting off this year than last. Plus we have a manager that doesnt take naps. Biggest pickup of the offseason.
S.o.S.27,
“Plus we have a manager that doesnt take naps. Biggest pickup of the offseason.”
Joe G is also the best offseason move because the alternative was Mattingly who has A LOT of family issues and would not have his head in the game.
“To my mind, Santana’s acquisition would have elevated their rotation to among one of the best in baseball, guaranteed the Yankees a playoff spot, and placed them among the one or two teams with the best odds to win the World Series.”
You do realize that the Twins asked for Kennedy and Wang, right?
1 Santana does not equal to Wang and Kennedy no matter how you look at it.
Ben, thanks. What number on the list is Albaladejo. I actually expect him to make the team before Edwar, but that’s only because what I heard from friends that saw him pitch.
SOS27 -
You expect your team to contend for the World Series and you hope that they win. That’s what I do, too. I never meant to imply that I didn’t get upset if they didn’t win, at least in the immediate aftermath. Especially when the Yankees are seemingly the better team. But, then, you move on and anticipate the new season.
New Season – Yeah!
Who in there right mind saves something like that for 6-7 years?
How do you know that it wasn’t tampered with?
Why did he not tell the Mitchell report or the Feds that he had this evidence and he waited unil now to reveal he had it?
I’m a LoHud blog-aholic. And I need help. lol. (That’s step 1, right?).
cb,
Id like to add that the Angels trading maybe their second best hitter on the team and best defender in Cabrera only weakend them.
Vader
In my mind because he doctored evidence. What does a blood stained gauze pad prove? Only that you stuck him with a neddle and made him bleed! He is a sick and twisted person.
mel, only if it takes time away from your family and job.
Vader
In my mind because he doctored evidence. What does a blood stained gauze pad prove? Only that you stuck him with a neddle and made him bleed! (well maybe not that, maybe Roger had a cut that opened when he was working out) He is a sick and twisted person.
That’s only if you believe/realize it’s a problem. You’re probably more like an all out fan of the yankees and you need to know more more and more.
Show me the team that enters spring training set and without question marks and I’ll show you a team that doesn’t play baseball on the planet Earth.
This applies to all 30 teams in MLB.
now my name looks like iennifer hio hio ioroe
Mel,(forgot to add your name before)(Lohud-Blogoholic) That’s only if you believe/realize it’s a problem. You’re probably more like an all out fan of the yankees and you need to know more more and more.
Exactly, Mitchell must be wondering why he didn’t let him know about this so-called evidence before the report came out.
Mcnamee is afraid of being a liar so he shows new evidence that does the opposite of what he wants and helps Clemens in the end.
mel,
Thats one more step than i want to admit. Step 1 should be dont talk to people on this thread between 1 to 4 in the morning. They are either to tired or drunk to talk straight or blog stalkers(scary). O.k. not all but most(trying to be politicall correct).
Doreen,
I feel you. Dont know what day it starts next week. But I havnt been more excited to get the season going in all my years as a fan. Maybe the question marks just makes it more interesting. Rathere than just watching a bunch of overpaid old guys continue to dissapoint me. This staff will be like World Champion 69 Mets(Young Ryan and Seaver). The road to #27 starts next week!!
The Kansas City Royals and the Tampa Bay Rays will not see playoff time this season but over the course of the 162-game season, they will be reckoned with and not be taken lightly.
You want to believe Santana can handle NY because if he can’t, it minimize to argument to getting him.
However, as we have seen, when it comes to pitchers coming to NY, NOTHING makes sense.
Randy Johnson was supposed to have no problems “handling” NY. He’s pitched in big games, he had the “fire”, the “swowl”, etc.
But, from the first day he showed up, it was the wrong fit. Some people in the front office wanted a “do over” on that deal from Day 1.
Great pitcher, just couldn’t handle NY.
Johan Santana is a great pitcher. Pitching in the NL is a helluva lot easier than pitching in the AL East.
That said, paying over 130 million bucks for a guy who only plays once every 5 days AND giving up THREE of your top, young players, just doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Add to it, the 40% tax hit on the deal the Yankees would take, it makes NO sense to do the deal. Sorry, he isn’t worth 28 million a year for 7 years. Just as Roger Clemens wasn’t worth 28 million last year.
Santana could have a great year and the Mets still may not make the playoffs. That’s the danger of giving pitchers this kind of money. They only impact the team on the games they pitch.
Also, since there is a 100% failure rate of pitchers who have been given 100+ million dollar contracts in baseball. Not 20, 30 or 50%. A 100% failure rate to the 100 million dollar pitching crew. I can certainly understand the Yankees (and the Red Sox, for that matter) hesitation on dipping into the Santana pool.
No doubt the guy is a great pitcher. But, what if he has a very good year for the Mets this year, gets hurt in Year 2, and misses a significant part of Year 3?
That’s the career path of Pedro Martinez with Mets and he signed for 85 million LESS than Santana.
Is it then a good deal?
I don’t think people realize just how good Santana has to be to justify that deal. The odds are so high that he won’t be able to outperform his contract, its not funny. Its a very high mountain to climb. Even for a guy as good as Santana.
My point is, the risk of giving pitchers these type of deals is quite high. Even higher when you have to give up high ceiling prospects for him.
As good as Santana is, he isn’t worth giving up Hughes or Wang, Kennedy and Cabrera. That’s what the Twins wanted from the Yankees.
Doing that deal guarantees the Yankees NOTHING but the back page of the Post for a few days.
SoS,
My excuse is I live in a time zone far away (Twilight Zone!)
Vader
February 7th, 2008 at 1:55 pm
mel, only if it takes time away from your family and job.
Damn that puts me in that catagory. Here it goes “im a lohud blogaholic”. Please join us in admitting we have a problem. Maybe pete can give us some compensation for work lost.
To all Giants fans, defensive coordinater Spagnualo has signed a 3 year deal with the Giants and will not take the Redskins coaching job. Spagnualo will be the highest DC in the NFL plus he might get promoted to assistant coach.
“saucy,
You can’t fool me, you changed yours to saucv.”
just got back from lunch and tried doign a cntl-f for “saucy”, knowing i posted in this thread already. if you didn’t post this, i would have spent a good 5 minutes scratching my head while trying to re-read the thread…
I was at the parade and when Spagnualo went by us the guys around me started heavy chants “REDSKINS SUCKS”.
Apperantly that helped. LOL!
Ok here goes I’m a Blogoholic or whatever it’s called
Schilling with bad shoulder injury??
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/02/07/herald-schilling-has-serious-shoulder-problem/
Blogaholics Pseudonymous
That’s two veteran pitchers today, Schilling and Escobar, with significant shoulder problems.
The risk of pitchers and why having a surplus of them is a helluva lot better than just depending on one or two guys.
Especially when those one or two guys are older guys.
The problem facing the Sox if Schilling is out is, Dice-K has to really step up now.
When last we saw him, Tito had so little confidence in him, he was limited to 5 inning starts in the post-season.
In the interest of full disclosure, I will tell you, I really dislike Schilling. I think he is one of the biggest horse’s a–es in the game.
That said, the guy is a gamer to the nth degree.
If he can’t pitch for the Sox this year, that’s a big hit for them.
Hello Whatevered.
mel,
You are just the woman of mystery. From name? To Twilight Zone? To all these other languages you speak? Yes. Woman of mystery it is.
SJ44,
(Schill and Escobar)Not to mention expensive losses to their pocket books. If we lose one of our young ones. We’ll lose talent not both.
babye Schill-Dink….couldn’t happen to a nicer guy !
SoS,
Unfortunately, that’s the way it has to be. Witness Protection sucks. lol.
mel,
Do you mean Chrisness Protection?lol
Didn’t Schilling have shoulder issues in the ‘07 season?
SOS,
In Schill’s case, now we know why he took an 8 million dollar, below market deal! lol
Since he acts as is his own agent, I wonder if the Red Sox will file a grievance against him under the belief he mislead them?
You have to think though the Sox gave him a physical prior to signing the deal.
If they did, it would lessen their case against him, if they have a case at all.
It does beg the question…..when did he tear his labrum, as the Sox contend?
Goes to show you, these “physicals” are all BS. Teams roll the dice with pitchers. Physicals be damned.
I think the insurance company cares more about the physical than the teams.
You can’t tell me Schilling wasn’t pitching with this last year. Its why his velocity fell off so dramatically.
if schilling’s out for the season, someone should give him a vote for the cy-young award… just to make the sox waste a little more money
Just goes to show you that it isn’t only young pitchers who get injured.
Id it just me or does a Schilling injury really change the complexion of the AL East? Now you have Dice-K forced to ‘be the man’ in the #2 spot, no more hiding and pitching against lesser #3 guys. His era in the 4’s will hurt a lot more now. offense wise, the Red Sux and Yankees are actually pretty comparable, imo. Now the starting pitching is less of a disparity on paper. I also am reminded that last year was the one healthy year of Beckett’s career. If he has blister issues again, then they are in real trouble.
This year is going to be a lot of fun watching the kids grow up
As of right now, the Yankees’ bullpen is Mo and a bunch of question marks. That’s not good at all. Folks who are saying that it’s always a crapshoot, never a sure thing, with relievers are just making excuses. The Yankees’ bullpen situation right now looks like a major problem. Sure, sure, if most of the guys they’ve got have good seasons, they’ll have a great bullpen, but only a fool would count on that happening. And Mo absolutely cannot be used for a bunch of 4 and 5 out saves anymore or he’ll never make it through his contract. Damaso Marte would have been a great addition.Maybe that’s still possible. I understand, in any case, that there have been few good relievers available in trade or via free agency, so Cashman can’t be blamed entirely for the problem. But anyone who’s excited about Albaledejo (sp?) or Hawkins needs a reality check. I’m hoping that Dave Eiland, who MAY be a great pitching coach, can work some magic with some of the talented arms–Henn, Traber, Ohlendorf, Veras,Wright, etc.–the Yanks will have in camp. But, if not, I think the Yanks are in for a pretty crappy 2008. You just can’t win without a good bullpen. And I can’t remember when the Yanks have won it all without TWO lefties in the bullpen!!!! As of right now, they’ve got NONE. We may get surprised….Sean Henn may grow some big ones and learn how to throw his 95mph heater over the plate. Billy Traber may prove to be a reliable LH specialist. Mark Melancon may heal faster than anyone expected and make a splash mid-season. Same with Humberto Sanchez and JB Cox. Kyle Farnsworth may start remembering what made him successful in the past. But that’s a lot of “maybes” and “what ifs.” All teams go into the Spring with a few question marks, but the 2008 Yankees are going into the Spring with a lot of ‘em.
Looks like we are in for another crappy year:
http://yanksfansoxfan.typepad.com/ysfs/2008/02/projecting-th-1.html
Conclusion
So let’s wrap this up with a handy chart for the Yankees.
.. ‘07 ‘08 Diff
RS 969 957 -12
RA 777 707 -70
That’s a net gain of just under six wins for the Yankees from their 2007 Pythag record of 97-65.
The final standings, according to the PECOTA extrapolations:
Yankees 103-59
Red Sox 101-61
sj44
Goes to show you, these “physicals†are all BS. Teams roll the dice with pitchers. Physicals be damned.
I wonder if that might be the case in Santana. Maybe he has arm problems that they are overlooking just to put more bodies in seats.
saucy,
Schilling will get my vote hands down.
kd,
It just goes do show you that the team that wins the World Series has to get some breaks here and there during the coarse of the year. Boston had little injuries last year. Where the 06 season they had multiple injuries in the second half of the year and crumbled. Hopefully we catch those breaks that the Sox of last year got.
Tony Massarotti is reporting that Schilling may be out for the season, and that the Red Sox “may” be looking to void Schilling’s contract…
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/red_sox/view.bg?articleid=1071967&pos=breaking
Curt Schilling might be done for the season according to WEEI here in Boston. Yikes!
As for the bullpen, there are tons of question marks there. Bullpen arms are extremely unpredictable. A guy who’s lights out this year, tends to be very mediocrethe next, and vice versa. Very few BP arms are consistent year in and year out. That’s why I don’t mind the approach the Yankees are taking here. Accumulate arms, throw them up against the wall, and try to figure out which ones stick.
Melancon & Sanchez won’t be truly 100% until roughly 2 years after their respective surgeries. Such is the recovery from Tommy John.
think before you post people.
think of last year’s best bullpens (cleveland, boston, san diego)–how were they built?
relievers are fickle. besides the closers, what reliever has had success over a career’s work? relievers get hurt, become ineffective, bitch about not getting the chance to start, etc.
cashman has done an incredible job building a bullpen this year. he has signed a shit-ton of quality arms for cheap. most will fail, but enough will be successful as major league receivers.
There’s two X-factors with Boston losing Schilling. Their plan for Buchholz has been put on fast forward to some degree. The 41-year old Wakefield had back issues last year and may be running out of fuel. Their in-house candidates are iffy at best.
HMM I wonder of “the mouth” will fill in his fans on this. Maybe this is why he jumped at the Red Soxs contract, he knew he was still injured and wouldn’t pass a more through physical of a new team. Let the consiracy theories begin.
i wonder if they knew about schilling earlier they would have been more active in the Johan market, or they still would have avoided real negotiations.
not that i thought Schilling was going to have a huge season, but I think most people reasonably expected at least 25 starts, maybe 10-12 wins from Schilling in the 2-hole.
now, when you put the Yankees rotation up against the Saux, you cant tell me the Saux have any sort of clear advantage, and i dont care how many questions the Yankees may have going into ST.
Hey – lookee at what I just bought:
http://www.shirtaday.com/
“This shirt is for all of you Giants fans and Patriot haters. We figured that we had to do something for the super bowl this year seeing as how it was the most viewed super bowl in history. Celebrate the Patriot’s major choke job with this shirt…”
Again, bullpen pitching is fungible. There are no consistently reliable “6th inning men,” or, for that matter, “7th inning men.” If you’re that good, year to year, you’re a bona fide setup man. The law of sample sets says that some of the guys the Yanks have in camp will look good for the first 30 IP, or so. Girardi will hopefully have the sense to go with whoever’s hot.
And before we go beatifying Jeff Nelson and putting him in monument park, recall that his ERA+ reflects the law of the bullpen:
1996: 115
1997: 157
1998: 117
1999: 114
2000: 196
The difference in the glory years wasn’t that the bullpen was so unhittable, it was that outside of Rivera, they had to use it relatively infrequently. In 1998, eg, outside of Mo and Mendoza, they had to call on the pen for less than 300 IP (with the starts made by Buddie and Bradley). The top 5 starters combined for 950 IP (including Hernandez, who wasn’t with the team in April).
In 2007, we got about 800 from a hodgepodge of guys.
Real World February 7th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
Curt Schilling might be done for the season according to WEEI here in Boston. Yikes!
As for the bullpen, there are tons of question marks there. Bullpen arms are extremely unpredictable. A guy who’s lights out this year, tends to be very mediocrethe next, and vice versa. Very few BP arms are consistent year in and year out. That’s why I don’t mind the approach the Yankees are taking here. Accumulate arms, throw them up against the wall, and try to figure out which ones stick.
Melancon & Sanchez won’t be truly 100% until roughly 2 years after their respective surgeries. Such is the recovery from Tommy John.
————————————————————
Guys recover from TJ at different rates. Age may be a factor, as well. In any case, all the reports on Melancon have been that he’s ready to pitch, period. He will likely need some work in the minor leagues just because he’s barely had any so far, but I think he’s a good bet for a spot with the big league club this season. Sanchez may be a little behind him in terms of recovery, but he’s expected to make the big league club this year, too.
But, as far as the “approach” the yanks have been taking regarding the bullpen, I’m not so sure it’s as much strategy as it is just desperation. I mean, what else CAN they do?
Some of the young guys–Henn, Ohlendorf, Albeladejo, Ramirez, Wright–haven’t, arguably, had a full chance to prove themselves in the big leagues yet. But most of the others are retreads who have been given real shots and failed. Yankees’ fans need to keep their fingers crossed.
“The final standings, according to the PECOTA extrapolations:
Yankees 103-59
Red Sox 101-61″
I would imagine that if Schilling is gone the Red Sox will be much worse than 101-61.
Let that sink in. The 1999 Yankees were not a great pitching team. They won 98 games because Hernandez, Cone, Pettitte, Clemens and Irabu game them 956 IP. Four of those guys were better than league average, and Irabu was close (84 ERA+).
Outside of Mo that year (259), the Yanks’ bullpen wasn’t even that stacked:
Stanton: 109
Grimsley: 131
Mendoza: 110
Nelson: 114
And Allen Watson inexplicably pitched well.
If anyone here, on the basis of what I’ve said, can begin to contest the notion that “bullpen quality” is irrelevant compared to IP provided by starters, I’ll buy you a 164 oz. steak and a pitcher of scotch.
btw, Irabu was 98 ERA+ in 1999. Don’t know why I typed 84.
http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/red_sox/index.php/2008/02/07/schilling-issue-serious/
Schilling Issue Serious
Roughly a week before pitchers and catchers are due to report to spring training, the Herald has learned today that right-hander Curt Schilling has a significant shoulder injury that could end the veteran right-hander’s season and is causing tension and friction between the player and club.
While neither Schilling nor Sox officials could be reached for comment, baseball sources have indicated that the club has at least inquired about the possibility of voiding the one-year, $8 million contract Schilling signed last November. It is not known to what lengths the Sox have gone on the matter, but their threat has been serious enough to create a conflict between Schilling and the Red Sox.
While the precise nature of Schilling’s injury is not known, it is believed that the right-hander is suffering from an injury to the rotator cuff and/or labrum that might require surgery. It is possible that the sides disagree on how to treat Schilling’s ailment and that a course of treatment, too, is a part of their disagreement.
If Schilling has surgery on his shoulder, it is almost certain that he would be unable to pitch this season.
Presumably, Schilling underwent a physical exam when the Red Sox signed him to his guaranteed contract in November. It is unclear whether Schilling’s current problem was overlooked at the time or if he suffered the injury at a later date.
Obviously, stay tuned as this is a developing story.
Happy New Year’s, all
Wow. That’s big news. According to the article linked above. There is friction between the parties. Lucky thing they didn’t give up Lester. He should be able to step into the #2 spot.
Kung Hee Fat Choy, Blargh.
TurnTwo,
Im just happy that the Twins got antsy and pulled the trigger before this happened. Who know,we might have had to block that trade and give up Wang,Joba,Hughes,Kennedy and offcoarse Melky. Seriously though, I think the Red Sox would have made that trade. Giving up a package with some of their young studs included.
To bad about Schilling… I would have much preferred to see our boys battering his dead fastball around that bandbox they call a ballpark to the moans of those belligerent fans. That’s a much more fitting end to the Schilling Story.
His 3.92 ERA vs. Yanks last year was only going to go up. Plus he was good for a couple of disabled list visits during the year which would have thrown the Sox in to chaos.
Now it looks like it’s just a contract dump…
Major Deegan,
You’re right. Now they’re in a position to, like, do something about it.
#9 – thanks for the link. great shirt.
you know how those refunds work?
cant wait to hear what pete has to say about the stadium tour!
Gongxi facai to you too, mel
(yep, Mandarin speaker here)
TurnTwo February 7th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
i wonder if they knew about schilling earlier they would have been more active in the Johan market, or they still would have avoided real negotiations.
not that i thought Schilling was going to have a huge season, but I think most people reasonably expected at least 25 starts, maybe 10-12 wins from Schilling in the 2-hole.
now, when you put the Yankees rotation up against the Saux, you cant tell me the Saux have any sort of clear advantage, and i dont care how many questions the Yankees may have going into ST.
————————————————————-
I think you’re probably right, at least in terms of starting pitching. The loss of Schilling is a BIG blow to the Red Sox. It means that Bucholtz will definitely be in their rotation and, as a rookie who may, or may not, have had some arm problems late in the 2007 season and who may, or may not, go through the typical “growing pains,” the Sox’ rotation is a little “iffier” than it was. On the other hand, a lot of people think that Dice-K will be better in 2008. If that proves to be the case, and the Sox get only “pretty good” performances out of Lester and Bucholtz, they will have a formidable rotation even without Schilling. The Sox’ would still appear to have an edge with their bullpen but, as we all know, “anything can happen.”
“#9 – thanks for the link. great shirt.
you know how those refunds work?”
The more people who buy it, the lower the price becomes and the more you get refunded.
I paid $14. The price has gone down to $8.5 – right now I’ll get a $5.50 refund… and if more people buy it – then my refund will be more. (Credited to your Credit card)
major deegan:
yeah you’re right. i’ll certainly miss watching him get beat up by our guys this year.
i still have visions of jeter’s homer off him going over the monster in september
“On the other hand, a lot of people think that Dice-K will be better in 2008.”
I don’t think so. Japanese pitchers who come over are usually worse once the league gets familiar with them.
“He should be able to step into the #2 spot.”
Not unless he figures out how to throw strikes.
I’m sure he’s got “great stuff” for a lefty, but I’ve seen the same guy every time he’s stepped on the mound: a 5-inning pitcher who’s always behind in the count because he doesn’t know where the ball’s going.
i have to thank everyone here who picked apart Chris’ idiotic rant by supplying the necessary facts.
you have afforded me the day off to paint my spare bedroom.
thanks again.
“On the other hand, a lot of people think that Dice-K will be better in 2008.”
I always hear this, that there’s an “adjustment period” he was going through. But…Matsuzaka’s situation didn’t look like Beckett’s to me. Beckett was stubborn and just kept trying to throw harder when things got tough and as a result elevated his fastball and got creamed. Matsuzaka just seemed like he couldn’t throw strikes with his breaking pitches, so unless guys swing, he throws 120 pitches in six innings, walks four guys and gives up four runs.
I agree with Whozat. There is no way Jon Lester is a #2 pitcher in their rotation.
He can barely pitch 5 innings and has a hard time throwing strikes.
Unless he makes a quantum leap of improvement in those two areas, he’s not a #2 starter.
One thing about the bullpen. If the starters can average one more inning per start, the bullpen will be much less an issue.
We know Wang and Pettitte can eat innings. If one or two more guys can step up and eat some innings, the bullpen will be a helluva lot more fresh late in the year than it has been the past two seasons.
hmm, schilling with a shoulder injury in the off-season…kindof explains why he signed so quickly and at a “discount”. he even accepted the indignity of a “fat clause” in the contract.
‘i still have visions of jeter’s homer off him going over the monster in september’
AAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!!! Can’t Baseball season start already!!!!!!!!!!!!!Ahhhhhhhhhhhh!!!!
Great shots from inside the new Yankee stadium via River Ave Blues
http://flickr.com/photos/benyankee/sets/72157603866820379/
with Schilling out Bucholz and Lester in How about thier inning limits they can’t pitch 200 innings
“His 3.92 ERA vs. Yanks last year was only going to go up. Plus he was good for a couple of disabled list visits during the year which would have thrown the Sox in to chaos.”
By my count, his ERA vs. the Yanks last year was 5.59, so we really will miss him, ha.
I was joking about Lester being a #2 right now. But many “experts” believe that to be the case.
All of a sudden Boston’s depending on youth, much like the Yankees.
The difference? Yankees have quantity. Yankees have quality. And the Yankees have the best fans in the world, who won’t panic!
Here’s what I love about the Schilling stuff:
When asked for a comment by Jayson Stark (who has been Schilling personal PR shill for years), Schilling issued a “no comment”.
For a guy who has something to say about EVERYTHING, why clam up now?
His blog? No mention of his injury.
Again, he has an opinion about everything. How ’bout openin’ up about this issue?
Sorry but, I just don’t like the guy. He is a complete phony.
If somebody else has this come up, he would be full of opinions.
When it comes to himself……nothing.
Poetic justice, if you ask me.
Schilling looked done to me at the end of last year. He appeared to have a tired arm. He was throwing mid 80’s with his fastball, when earlier in the year he was throwing low 90’s.
I wasn’t surprised he only asked for a one year deal. I think he knew he is nearly done and maybe he even knew he had an injury. Possibly he thought rest would heal it in time to start the season. A lot of speculation here but it fits with what he has shown with his performances.
SJ44 :
I see Hughes and Kennedy as the inning eaters you mention in order to add innings and lessen bullpen work. Mussina on a rare occasion can be depending on what his stamina will be coming out of spring training. Horne / Marquez / McCutchen could be late season providers.
Joe Girardi will put more importance on the value of a long relief man than Torre did in recent years. Karstens and Rasner will be given chances to do so.
We may have seen the last of Curt “Table for one” Schilling. His next move will be to lobby himself into Cooperstown. Pfffft !
I’d like to respond to a couple of your points about Santana, SJ44, not because I don’t regard them valid but because I think they contain some assumptions open to question.
1) The RJ, Kevin Brown, Javy Vasquez, Contreras examples.
These four couldn’t pitch in NY, I agree. Javy Vasquez and Contreras were hardly Johan Santana in their ability however.
While RJ and Brown were over 38 when the Yankees acquired them. (Santana will be 29 on Opening Day.) In Brown and RJ’s case, their ages and the regression in their skills accounted for their failures as Yankees as much if not more than where they pitched.
2) The Payroll Issue and the Luxury Tax. This strikes me as a bit of a red-herring.
First of all, baseball economists report the Yankess earn over $100 million in profit notwithstanding their payroll. I don’t spend evenings worrying about the Yankees’ profit margins.
Second, the increased ticket prices of their new ball park, to say nothing of the luxury boxes, will add dramatically to the Yankees’ revenue and their payroll flexibility.
Third, the Yankees, over the next two seasons, will dispose of many of the large, long-term contracts that burden them: Giambi, Mussina, and Pavano. A savings between $50 and $80 million after ‘08, depending on whether they re-sign Abreu, Pettitte, and Farnsworth. Then after 2009, they shed Damon and Matsui’s contracts. Which means the only long-term contracts the Yankees are currently committed to for 2010 and beyond are (Jeter, A-Rod, Cano, Rivera (just for ‘10), and Posada and [Wang's, I hope])
Fourth, the Luxury Tax threshold rises about $10 million per each year until this current labor agreement expires in 2011 when it reaches $178 million. Who’s to say whether a luxury tax will extend beyond then or what that the number will be.
Five, with the influx of all these young pitchers, and the emergence of A-Jax, Tabata, Montero, and Cervelli the Yankees WON’T have to field an all-Free Agent team over the next five years. That in itself will reduce their payroll.
Six, I’d rather commit $100 million to Santana than Mark Teixiera or CC Sabathia.
3) The Contract’s Length. To my mind, the two great disastrous long-term contracts for starting pitchers were Kevin Brown and Mike Hampton. And Santana’s situation differs significantly enough from both that signing Johan to a long-term contract wouldn’t have worried me.
First, Brown was 34 when the Dodgers awarded him his 6 or 7-year deal.
Second, Hampton, while 28, when Colorado signed him, already had logged 1200 IPs as a starter.
(Pedro was 33 yrs of age and had logged over 2000 IP’s as a starter when the Mets signed him.)
Santana, also 28, only has pitched 844 IPs as a starter, in contrast, and the Twins also were very scrupulous in monitoring his pitch counts. Moreover, Santana relies on two pitches, a fastball and a change-up, that place less of a strain on the arm than breaking balls, and pose less of a risk of both injury and in their combination, remain effective even when a pitcher loses some of his velocity.
4) The Player the Yankees would have had to relinquish. The loss of Melky and Marquez wouldn’t cause me to bat an eye. Corey Patterson’s defense in the OF, or had the Yankees acted sooner, Mike Cameron’s, strike me as adequate for a year or two until Gardner or A-Jax can assume the role.
Would losing Hughes have upset me? Yes, of course. But with the depth of the pitching in the Yankees system, I submit they can afford to lose him. Joba, Brackman, IPK, Horne, White, Sanchez, Betances, etc.
Moreover, the acquisition of Santana would help Joba and IPK’s acclimation by alleviating both the pressue on them to perform and the innings totals they’ll have to accumulate.
All of these reasons would have diminished the concerns you raise, SJ44 and persuaded me to trade for Johan Santana.
mel-And the Yankees have the best fans in the world, who won’t panic!
You must have not read some of the earlier posts on this thread. Correct your line to we have SOME of the best fans in the world, who dont panic. Unless you think the others dont count.
Kill Schill – don’t forget santana has avg. apx 230IP the last 4 seasons so he helps the bullpen tremendously as well.
Actually Santana has logged 1177 IPs as a starter– I forgot to include 2002 and 2003.
Although for the reasons, I enumerate above, Santana’s age and repertoirs still differs sufficiently from Brown, Pedro, and Hampton that a 6-year contract for Johan wouldn’t have troubled me.
I rarely wish badly for anybody, but if Shilling is done, I am very,very happy. SJ44 is right. He’s a phony and a blowhard.
We Yankee fans can also enjoy the battle between Shill and Luchino over voiding the contract. If there were ever a pair made for each other, it’s them.
Well said, Kill-Shill.I agree.
I actually hope Schilling pitches this year.
If he doesn’t, I’ll have to find another Red Sox to despise more than Dick Cheney. That won’t be easy, even if Beckett and Pedroia recently nominated themselves.
Youklis gets a pass from me. Unfortunately, he reminds me too much of the hot-headed Jews in my family who erupt in anger don’t hold grudges to loathe him.
I’m always open to suggestion on this one however.
Kill-schill,
I for one was not for the Santana trade. But your post was very convincing and well put. Makes me have to think twice about it. Hopefully Joba steps up and becomes a #1. Wangs finger nail has healed. Hughes velocity is back up. Pettite doesnt let the hgh distraction effect him. Mussina retires(not sold on him or his attitude). Finally, Kennedy continues to do what he did last year.
Boston Dave,
How was that Piss Cave 113 run yesterday turn out?
The luxury tax issue isn’t a red herring. It directly affects the Yankees because they, in essence, fund other teams’ ability to sign and develop their own players.
That’s the issue, from the Yankees standpoint, re: the luxury tax. They are tired of funding other teams’ operations.
Its as if the Yankees compete with themselves in that regard and they want to put an end to that.
It really doesn’t make any sense to help out teams like the Rays, Marlins and Royals (to name 3) in their attempts to keep their younger players. Which, is the case, when you are giving up 40% off the top when you reach the threshold the Yankees currently operate under.
Yes, they have a lot coming off the books next year. They also have to sign certain guys so, that amount coming off the books is a bit of a red herring.
You can’t count on guys who haven’t even taken AB’s in AA yet as replacements for guys currently on the roster. That’s how you get yourself in trouble when evaluating younger players.
What happens if Bobby Abreu has another 100+ run 100+ RBI season? Do you sign him or do you give the RF job to an unproven rookie?
If he has another good season, I think the Yankees re-sign him. That’s 15-17 added to the payroll.
Long term contracts with pitchers have simply not proven to be prudent. Even carefully monitoring innings doesn’t seem to matter.
Santana’s velocity was down the second half of last year. He gave up more HR’s than any other year and stopped throwing his slider after the Break.
Could it mean something? I don’t know but, if I am a GM, and given the fact that he has had bone chip issues in his elbow in the past, it would certainly give me pause about going for a 6 year deal.
The bottom line is, pitching is an unnatural act and pitchers get hurt. If a guy who only plays once every 5 days misses considerable time, you take a big financial (as well as on field) hit.
You also have the issue of insurance. Since insurance will only cover 3 years and 39 million dollars of a pitchers deal, it puts the team (in this case the Mets) on the hook for 3 years and nearly 100 million dollars. To me, especially when you have a ton of young, talented arms ready to go, it seems to be an unnecessary risk to take.
Even if you are the Yankees, you don’t want dead money tied up on your payroll. All we need to do is see the Pavano and Giambi contracts as evidence at what dead money does to a payroll.
I’m sure everyone didn’t bat an eyelash when Giambi was signed to that contract. For that last 3 years, he hasn’t performed anywhere near all star levels and that contract has been an albatross around the Yankees necks.
That’s from an everyday (or formerly an everyday) player. A pitcher? It seems like a big dice roll to me.
If you give up Wang or Hughes and Kennedy and Cabrera in a Santana deal, is it really worth it?
Does Santana make up the difference in wins over what you would have in Wang or Hughes and Kennedy?
Cameron misses the first 25 games of this season. Plus, he is a high K guy. What if Austin Jackson isn’t ready in 2009? Who plays CF for the Yankees in 2009?
Wang and Kennedy (the last incarnation of the deal) could amount to a combined 30 wins this year.
Does Santana win 30 games next year? I doubt it.
Also, if you deal two of the guys, you now need more from Mike Mussina. That may be asking a lot at this stage of Moose’s career.
Barry Zito signed a 7 year contract and he was in his Mid-Late 20’s and his delivery and variety of pitches are considered “non-stressful”. He’s also pitching in a pitchers ballpark and in an easier league.
Guess what? His contract is a disaster. Another 100+ million dollar bust.
Its just a big, big commitment to ANY pitcher because of the fragile nature of the position.
There is no doubt Santana is a great pitcher. However, he’s not so great that you give up 3 guys, significant contributors off your 25 man roster AND over 135 million dollars (with a 40% surcharge) to boot.
Its just not worth it and nobody paid that bounty for him. Not even the Red Sox whom, it seems could really use him now, given today’s news re: Schilling.
“4) The Player the Yankees would have had to relinquish. The loss of Melky and Marquez wouldn’t cause me to bat an eye. Corey Patterson’s defense in the OF, or had the Yankees acted sooner, Mike Cameron’s, strike me as adequate for a year or two until Gardner or A-Jax can assume the role.”
You do realize that the Twins wanted Kennedy and Wang plus Melky right?
Kill-Schill(ing)
I won’t have any problem giving you ideas,
Beckett
V-Tek
Manny
Ortiz, Logo
Drew, Heck the other 24 players.
time to get over it, Santana is a thing of the past. Time will tell whether it was wise or not but its done and theres no sense continuing your campaign in favor of the trade.
There are definitely great points and counterpoints to the debate. I think the bottom line was the bottom line. The Yankees are in it to win, but the financial officers have the responsibility to their shareholders to make fiscally sane decisions.
Their 3-4-5 is Buchholz, Lester and Wake against ours of Phil, Joba, IPK and Moose. I think we have the clear advantage there. I give Pettitte a slight edge over Dice-K and Beckett a clear edge over Wang. Overall, I think we match up, and may even be better. I lot will depend on Moose and Wakefield as to who has the better SR.
I’ve heard too many permutations and conflicting reports about what the Twins wanted and what the Yankees offered from Klapisch, Heyman, and Madden.
No, I wouldn’t have included IPK or Wang with Hughes. However, I can’t believe that considering what the Mets offered, Bill Smith wouldn’t have accepted the deal, Madden reported, the Yankees rebuffed during the Winter Meetings: Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez, and Hilligoss.
SJ, you wrote, as follows:
“The luxury tax issue isn’t a red herring. It directly affects the Yankees because they, in essence, fund other teams’ ability to sign and develop their own players.
That’s the issue, from the Yankees standpoint, re: the luxury tax. They are tired of funding other teams’ operations.
Its as if the Yankees compete with themselves in that regard and they want to put an end to that.
It really doesn’t make any sense to help out teams like the Rays, Marlins and Royals (to name 3) in their attempts to keep their younger players. Which, is the case, when you are giving up 40% off the top when you reach the threshold the Yankees currently operate under.”
Correct me if I’m wrong but if the luxury tax threshold is $155 million this year, so assuming the Yankees had to pay a 40% tax on dollars exceeding it, then a $220 million payroll would cost them 40% * $65million = $26 million or about the cost of Giambi’s contract.
My understanding is that the Yankees subsidize small-market teams largely through revenue-sharing (not the luxury tax) and that the amount the Yankees re-distribute via revenue-sharing is totally unaffected by the size of the Yankees’ payroll.
Someone’s going to have a tough time persuading me that losing Melky Cabrera and replacing him with Corey Patterson or a 135 game Mike Cameron is going to make much of difference in the total runs the Yankees produce or in the total runs they yield.
Barry Zito had one awful year. I think it’s a little too early to call that contract a disaster. Stupid yes, but that’s because once again, any team would be foolish to give BARRY ZITO $18 million a year and for 7 years.
Johan Santana is an infinitelty superior pitcher to Barry Zito.
I’m not suggesting a rotation of Santanas. How often does the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd best pitcher in baseball even become available in his prime? Once a decade? Twice a decade? When he is, I champion acquiring him, cost be damned, even if he’s only dominant for the first 4 of the contract’s 6 years. That’s still four years which the Yankees automatically contend for a championship.
What’s Santana’s impact. You do the math. Sine 2003, the Twins were 105-47 in games he pitched. In games, he didn’t pitch they were 12 games over .500.
That’s the difference between a 112 win Twin team, when Santana pitches, and an 82 win Twin team, when he doesn’t.
If any pitcher in baseball is worth $120+ it’s Johan.
aren’t we DONE with the santana debate? aren’t there a lot of exciting yankee topics we could hash out over and over again?
Sorry Y-Guy to bore you with the debate. But I haven’t gotten over the decision just yet. Every time I hear Johan Santana’s name mentioned, I cringe with anger and regret.
God I hope I’m wrong, but I think the Yankees and their fans will rue the chance to acquire Santana for the next 5-years.
Meanwhile, Cashman will have moved on to another franchise or to some job on Wall St.
Let’s get out our crystal balls and see what we can predict
I’m sticking with my Moose picks up 20 wins, a perfect game, and a ring to cap off his career
Speaking of Santana, this is a pretty interesting (and quick) read on how fragile the negotiations got toward the end. Santana’s pretty bold in calling out Wilpoon personally. Good for him.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/tom_verducci/02/07/verducci.santana/index.html
McNamee is giving a press conference right now from what looks like DC.
santana’s a met, melky and phil are yankees and i dont know (nor do i care) where corey patterson is. Let it go man.
I have a few points to make. First, I think its fair to say that the Yankees have major question marks with regards to the bullpen but I also think thats fair to say about many other teams in the league. I like that Cashman is not spending too much money on the bullpen because it really is a crapshoot. Instead of overpaying veterans he is gathering a lot of high upside arms and hopefully a few will pan out. I think we should all be patient though, it will take awhile for Girardi to figure out which guys he can rely on down the stretch.
Secondly, I find it absurd that some people are predicting the Yankees won’t make the playoffs. You guys have detailed why you think this team is worse and has more question marks than past teams so I’ll go in the opposite direction and list some differences between what this team will look like on opening day as compared to how it looked last year on opening day.
1) Last year’s starting rotation was Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Pavano, Igawa with Karstens/Rasner as spot starters and Hughes/Clippard waiting in the wings. This year we still have the top 3 from last year (Wang, Mussina, Pettitte) but we are arguably upgrading the last two spots with Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy. If you look at it this way (backend rotation depth): Hughes/Chamberlain/Kennedy/Mussina/Horne/Marquez vs Pavano/Igawa/Karstens/Rasner/Hughes/Clippard, there is no way you can tell me we had better starting pitching last year.
2) Before opening day we had injuries to Mussina, Wang, Pettitte (our top 3 starters) which were soon followed by injuries to Matsui, Damon, Pavano and Hughes. Later in the season we also lost Mienkiewicz and Giambi for a significant amount of time. It is reasonable to expect that we will not have so many injuries early in the season as we did last year.
3) Wil Nieves was our backup catcher last year. Enough said
4) Our outfield defense is better this year compared to last year with Melky as our set-in-stone CF.
5) Our offense is basically the same except for a few changes. First base will have better production, Betemit/Duncan/Giambi vs Mienkiewcz/Phillips/Giambi. Our DH situation is a bit different: Giambi as DH vs Matsui/Duncan/Giambi splitting time at DH with Damon as our everyday LF and Matsui spelling him once in awhile.
6) Continuing from my last point, this year NY has much greater hitting and fielding depth. Our bench depending on the matchups/pitcher will be some combination of Duncan, Betemit, Gonzalez, Giambi, Matsui, Molina. Last year the Yankee bench was basically Mienkiewcz, Phillips, Nieves, Cabrera.
Sorry so long…
Kill(Schill) -
Santana is on the Mets. You make a lot of compelling arguments. On the Santana issue I could see both sides of it, but in the long run, didn’t want to see the Yankees put so much into such a deal (players plus money plus long term contract). It’s not that Santana isn’t worth it – relative to what’s out there, he certainly is worth thinking about taking the gamble. And it also seemed to me that no matter what the Yankees offered the Twins anyway, it would not have been enough and it would have been more than they would have taken from anyone else (except perhaps the Red Sox). The Twins did not want to do this deal with the Yankees.
So all your fine arguments are only causing you to bang your head against the wall.
I think the Yankees will do fine without Johann. But I understand it’s a matter of opinion right now.
Y’s Guy -
Actually – you said it best!
You all seem to be onto McNamee’s latest sleaze so no need to flog that fallen horse again today.
If Schilling is really out that shuffles Boston’s deck a little. Maybe it works out better for them in the long run, or maybe it just exposes the flaws in their rotation after Beckett. My money’s on the latter.
And as for the returning rotation here at Lohud Yankees Blog, looks like starter SJ44 is in mid season form. (Welcome back).
I can’t be surpised Schilling was not gonna start the season.I mean 199 hits in 199 innings Chien-Ming Wang and HGH Pettitte statred the year in the DL.
SJ -
Almost all of your arguments held true several months ago when you were in favor of trading Hughes, Melky, prospect for Santana.
You said you changed your mind because of timing (not being able to sign Cameron, for example).
How can you issue such an impassioned argument against the trade that you were in fact in favor of not that long ago? Just curious if you truly changed your mind on all counts.
SJ44 – I glad you have the energy to debate KillSchrill. Frankly, his posts are so full of errors, assumptions and ‘what ifs’, I just can’t bring myself to bother. For example:
“The Payroll Issue and the Luxury Tax. This strikes me as a bit of a red-herring.”
I guess the fact that we passed on Beltran SPECIFICALLY for payroll issues, and the fact that over the last 2 years Cashman has been EXCEEDINGLY careful to avoid overpaid players (not just the 18m/yr variety, but the 5m/yr variety also), KS just doesn’t get it. The Yankees, as a team, are not a bottomless pit, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THEY HAVE FOR INCOME.
WE DO NOT WANT TO SPEND 3 AND 4 AND 5 TIMES AS MUCH AS OTHER TEAMS TO WIN. IF THE SOX CAN WIN WITH A $150m PAYROLL AND OTHER TEAMS HAVE WON WITH LESS THEN A $100m PAYROLL, WHY DO WE WANT TO ‘COMPETE’ BY SPENDING WELL OVER $200m EVERY YEAR? (not to mention the tax)
“I’d rather commit $100 million to Santana than Mark Teixiera or CC Sabathia.”
Funny, on MY planet earth, Santana signed for $150m. But what’s $50m? Pennies.
“The Player the Yankees would have had to relinquish. The loss of Melky and Marquez wouldn’t cause me to bat an eye”
Well…. thats 2 players. Funny, I thought there were 4 in the deal. But hey, 2 kids who might be MLB players are only worth more then $10m/yr. And Melky would also cost $10m/yr to replace. But that’s only $20m-#30m/yr. Pennies.
“Third, the Yankees, over the next two seasons, will dispose of many of the large, long-term contracts that burden them:”
ARod, Jeter, Cano, Mo and Po ALONE will cost about about $80m/yr for the next THREE years. Add Santana, and you are over $100m/yr. Now all we need to do is get 19 other players.
“Who’s to say whether a luxury tax will extend beyond then or what that the number will be.”
Yeah… good thought. Why extend it? Let’s do our financial planning assuming then don’t. I’m sure MLB would rather have a system where only 6 or so teams will ever make the playoffs. Whew! Just saved another $30m/yr or so right there.
“…earn over $100 million in profit notwithstanding their payroll”
Yeah? Really? Please document this. The 3 articles I have read over the last 2 seasons have had the Yanks losing around $50m/yr. Yeah, there is ‘funny bookwork’ and I don’t feel sorry for them, but that’s a TINY bit different then making $100m/yr.
“Santana, also 28, only has pitched 844 IPs as a starter.
(Oops) Actually Santana has logged 1177 IPs as a starter– I forgot to include 2002 and 2003.”
Yes, I guess great pitchers, like Koufax, never have career ending injuries. I guess if we look at the last 10 years, we can hardly find any excellent pitchers, with over 1000 IPs on their arm, developing problems within 3-7 years. Ergo, a 7 year, $22m/yr contract to a pitcher, is safe (although uninsured).
“Hampton, while 28, when Colorado signed him, already had logged 1200 IPs as a starter.”
Yup, no problem with a 29 year old Santana with 1177 IPs. No comparison”. Although his IPs as a reliever probably don’t count.
“… emergence of A-Jax, Tabata, Montero, and Cervelli the Yankees WON’T have to field an all-Free Agent team over the next five years. That in itself will reduce their payroll.”
Fantastic!!! I can count on these 4 guys all making the Yankees starting lineup. Thank God!
Has anyone ever noticed that the statements:
1) You CAN’T count of all the kids making the team. You are lucky if 1 in 3 are good enough to start for the Yankees.
2) We CAN count on these kids all making the team.
… can be used interchangably, depending on the argument you are trying to ‘prove’?
That’s all I get at a glance, off the top of my head. My guess is there’s more, but I don’t want to do the research (research???).
McLovin – I can’t be surpised Schilling was not gonna start the season.I mean 199 hits in 199 innings Chien-Ming Wang and HGH Pettitte statred the year in the DL.
———————————————————
The God Beckett: 2007 WHIP (1.14) Career WHIP (1.23)
199/199 Wanger:: 2007 WHIP (1.29) Career WHIP (1.29)
So basically, Beckett, in the best year of his career, puts on ONE less man EVERY SEVEN innings.
So basically, Beckett, over his entire career, puts on ONE less man EVERY SEVENTEEN innings.
(Now, lets compare DP rates, OK?)
WHAT A HUGH DIFFERENCE!!!
That must cost the Yankees what? 5-10 games a year?
Aside from your butchering of the English language, you are the most obnoxious blogger I have found in 4 years. Congrats to you and your family.
Oldyankfan,
Iv always been confused by the WHIP. I know the lower it is the better. But the 1 time in 7 innings etc. Im not sure how you came up with that. Is there a link that i can go to to understand how it works?
sos, it’s walks plus hits per inning pitched
so he’s saying that wang put .15 more people on base each inning than becks did
0.15 (the diff between 2007 Holy Beckett and Wang) is approximately 1/7, so you can think of it as 1 WH in 7 IP
And 0.06 would be approximately 1/17; apply similar thinking
Kill-
You are completely forgetting to factor in the extra cash to sign Cameron and the X-tra vets to take the spots of the young guys traded away.
Thanks fellas. Got it.
1) “WE DO NOT WANT TO SPEND 3 AND 4 AND 5 TIMES AS MUCH AS OTHER TEAMS TO WIN. IF THE SOX CAN WIN WITH A $150m PAYROLL AND OTHER TEAMS HAVE WON WITH LESS THEN A $100m PAYROLL, WHY DO WE WANT TO ‘COMPETE’ BY SPENDING WELL OVER $200m EVERY YEAR? (not to mention the tax”
– Speak for yourself, OldYankeeFan. I don’t care how much the Yankees spend. Their payroll has tainted my enjoyment of a single World Series the Yankees have won.
2) ““I’d rather commit $100 million to Santana than Mark Teixiera or CC Sabathia.†Funny, on MY planet earth, Santana signed for $150m. But what’s $50m? Pennies.”
— That should have read “100+” and Santana signed for 137.5 million. And in any case, Sabathia and Teixiera will cost as much, if not more, if the Yankees sign them.
3) ““…earn over $100 million in profit notwithstanding their payroll†Yeah? Really? Please document this. The 3 articles I have read over the last 2 seasons have had the Yanks losing around $50m/yr. Yeah, there is ‘funny bookwork’ and I don’t feel sorry for them, but that’s a TINY bit different then making $100m/yr.”
– Forbes calculates the Yankees operating revenue at $302 million, which doesn’t include any of their broadcast revenue. The Yankees MSG TV contract used to earn them an additional $42 million and that ended in 2001. You can estimate that YES brings the Yankees at least much per year.
http://www.forbes.com/lists/2007/33/07mlb_New-York-Yankees_334613.html
WCBS radio signed a pact with the Yankees in December last year which earns the Yankees an additional $14 million.
We’re already well above $360 million without merchandising and foreign broadcast rights and that’s using MSG’s 2001 revenue estimate for the YES network which is probably double that amount.
4) “Santana, also 28, only has pitched 844 IPs as a starter.
(Oops) Actually Santana has logged 1177 IPs as a starter– I forgot to include 2002 and 2003.†Yes, I guess great pitchers, like Koufax, never have career ending injuries. I guess if we look at the last 10 years, we can hardly find any excellent pitchers, with over 1000 IPs on their arm, developing problems within 3-7 years. Ergo, a 7 year, $22m/yr contract to a pitcher, is safe (although uninsured)
—Santana’s contract is for 6-years, not 7-years, with a vesting option based precisely on his health and efficacy in his last years.
Any pitcher can sustain an injury that ends their career, including the Yankees’ rookies, regardless of the length of his contract. By that logic, the Yankees would never sign a free-agent pitcher, however long the contract.
Now, I wouldn’t sign an entire rotation of pitchers to contracts exceeding the 5-yr limit for insurance coverage but one pitcher for one uninsured year– who also happens to be, the Sandy Koufax of our generation, whose repertoire is fastball-changeup, during the period of his career spanning his prime, from the age of 29 through 35, impresses me as a good risk.
5) “That’s all I get at a glance, off the top of my head. My guess is there’s more, but I don’t want to do the research (research???).”
—-Too bad, you should. Your arguments might contain less fallacies, errors, and unproven assumptions, and prove more persuasive.
Your judgment about Santana is an opinion, like mine, no more and no less definitive or unanimous. Deal with it.
Kill-Shil,
A lot of folks seem to forget that the Red Sox had a higher payroll than the combined payrolls of the Indians and Rockies last year. The Red Sox could afford to throw $5mil out the window for 14 innings from Eric Gagne. They could afford to guarantee $4mil to Pinero and then give him away. If anyone out there thinks that money isn’t a factor when Boston wins, they should look up to see which franchise holds 1st and 2nd place for the highest payrolls of a World Series champ.
Another fallacy is the idea that small market teams always use their revenue sharing money to improve their team and that makes them competitive with the Yankees. Franchises like the Royals have actually had smaller payrolls than their revenue sharing allotment. The owners line their pockets with the money. THAT’s what upsets the Yankees most.
If the Yankees want to reduce their costs, that’s their right. But when the Yankees cut their costs while hiking ticket prices 30% like they did this year and look forward to record revenue in ‘09, they aint acting that much different than the owners of the Royals. The only difference is, the fans are lining the Steinbrenner’s pockets.
i don’t really understand the point of this argument.
the Twins wanted Wang and Kennedy.
this was reported by Madden, Law, Olney, Heyman, and the Star Tribune in Minnesota (http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/15142571.html?page=3&c=y).
Klapish was the only conflicting report.
It is apparent to me that the Twins were not being reasonable, and the evidence of that is what they wound up getting: very little.
had they been willing to deal with the Yankees from the beginning, they would have wound up with a nice package of prospects. a package that both sides would have walked away from the table happy.
but that’s not what happened: Smith tried to hold out to get the most he could possibly get, instead of seeking a MUTUALLY beneficial deal. so he let it drag on and on. when Santana put a deadline on the trade, he started calling the Yankees and making desperate demands.
that’s not how you make a trade. and it cost him and the Twins.
we should just be thankful that the beneficiaries of Smith’s poor judgment were the Mets and not the Red Sox.
maybe if Curt Schilling had been a little more forthcoming about his shoulder, the Sox pursue Johan a little harder.
We’re lucky the Red Sox didn’t pursue Santana harder. And that’s the point. Johan Santana is makes any pitching staff better, including either the Red Sox or the Yankees.
I love Melky, but he’s not irreplaceable. I love Phil Hughes, but he’s no sure thing to ever be a 230k, dominant pitcher like Santana.
As far as the money goes,give me a break. We’re talking about the most valuable franchise in sports. They charge like it, and they spend like it.
— That should have read “100+†and Santana signed for 137.5 million. And in any case, Sabathia and Teixiera will cost as much, if not more, if the Yankees sign them.
Well…. that’s a liberal ‘+’. His contract is:
6 years 137.5 + 5.5 buyout = $23.8m/yr -or-
7 years 152.5 ………… = $21.8m/yr
I doubt CC/Tex will cost near as much, but time will tell.
So you looked up SOME of the Yankees income and SOME of their costs, and YOU decided their profit is $100m?
You said: Any pitcher can sustain an injury that ends their career, including the Yankees’ rookies, regardless of the length of his contract. Your conclusion is: By that logic, the Yankees would never sign a free-agent pitcher, however long the contract.
MY conclusion is: Long contracts for Pitchers are VERY risky. Especially as insurance only covers 3/$39m, the longer, the riskier. So a 4 or 5 year deal, which is at least covers maybe half of the contract, is less riskier then a Santana deal. So yes, a guy likes Hughes, IF he is 80% of Santana at 1/10th the cost, he might be a smarter deal.
“Forbes magazine recently came out with profit/loss numbers for every major league team. The biggest money-losing team — in fact, the *only* money-losing team — was the New York Yankees, who, according to Forbes, lost $25.2 million last year.
But now, an article in New York Magazine claims that while the Yankees did lose money — $28 million, which is pretty similar to Forbes’ estimate — their cable network, YES, was quite profitable. YES broadcasts Yankees’ games to a large New York viewership, which would explain why it rakes in the cash.”
So the Yankees lost around $25m in 2007, which I believe was the 2nd or 3r year of losses, but YES is making a lot.
Excuse me, but NOT based on your ’slight distortion’ of 100+, my statement which read:
“Ergo, a 7 year, $22m/yr contract to a pitcher, is safe (although uninsured)
Should have read:
“Ergo, a 6 year, $23.8m/yr contract to a pitcher, is safe (although uninsured) – OR-
“Ergo, a 7 year, $21.8m/yr contract to a pitcher, is safe (although uninsured)
Do you see a LARGE error in my statement?
“That should have read “100+†and Santana signed for 137.5 million.”
If you KNEW the contract was 6/137.5 (+ 5.5) or 5/152.5, why would you say 100+? If you have a blind date with a woman who says she is 5′6+ tall, and she turns out to be 6′3, would you feel mislead?
Do you think 100+ is similar to 143?
My ONLY error was that the 7th year was an option, with a 5.5m buyout.
And if you DON’T care what they Yankees spend, thats fine. However, please excuse the Yankees FO if they DO mind, and while they might always have the highest payroll, they might want to a least keep some kind of leash on it.
What can I say. I made one honest error, you made many.
Most are glad the Santana deal did not go through.
From polls I’ve seen, it as about 3:1 against.
I will very much enjoy watching Phil and Melky next year, and maybe Marquez and whoever else soon. You should enjoy watching Santana. Please keep us all abreast of how he does.
OldYanksFan,
are you honestly concerned with the yankees owners’ personal finances? do you get worried when they buy a new house or a sports car too?
i would rather have owners spend profits on the team than into their bank accounts. SJ’s point about the luxury tax is valid… but your concern over the Yankees bottom line is comical.
Did you read the Forbes article I linked? They don’t factor any broadcast revenue. Nor do they conclude the Yankees LOST money. They merely calculate the Yankee operating income as a negative number. Besides, those numbers are predicated on the Yankees current stadium.
Want revenue figures for the new Stadium. Read Fortune magazine.
“The new stadium will boast more than three times as many luxury boxes as the old, and as a result, ticket-and-suite revenues are projected to soar to $253 million when the new ballpark opens in 2009.
They will probably be much higher. The $253 million figure in the prospectus assumes attendance in 2009 of 3.4 million, which is the equivalent of 79 percent of the new stadium’s 53,000-person capacity over 81 regular-season home games. Given that the Yankees sold 90 percent of their tickets last year, 88 percent in 2005, and are on pace for another 90 percent showing in 2007, it’s hard to imagine ticket sales sagging when the new stadium opens.
“And the ticket-and-suite figures don’t include two other sources of stadium revenue – concessions and sponsorships – that Yankees president Randy Levine expects will get a boost from the new ballpark..Were the Yankees to go that route, the team could conceivably net $30 million annually on gross concession sales of $100 million, estimates former Yankees marketing director Joseph Perello
“As for sponsorships…In other words, fans may enter a building called Yankee Stadium but find themselves sitting in the Bank of America bleachers or purchasing snacks at the Pfizer food court. Perello, now a sports consultant, thinks the Yanks could collect $50 million to $75 million a year in sponsorship dough this way.”
But it’s good thing you worry about the FO’s spending on their behalf. That’s like when Cashman worries more about spending the Steinbrenner’s money than George and Hank do.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/10/news/newsmakers/yankees_stadium.fortune/index.htm
2) And where did you get this from: “Especially as insurance only covers 3/$39m, the longer, the riskier?”
That’s an rank untruth. The limit is at least 5 years, not 3. Just look at the Pavano contract, which enters its fourth year this year and for which the Yankees will collect insurance on, yet again.
4) But hey, if it makes you feel better to think your position on Santana is based more in fact than mine, than I’m not going to bother to argue with you.
But I’m sure quite a few people in the White House you could convince with that logic.
Incidentally, the $253 million dollars in revenue that Fortune calculates the new Stadium will generate is $100 MILLION DOLLARS MORE than the Forbes calculates the current stadium earned the Yankees in 2007.
Did you get that? The New Yankees Stadium will earn AT LEAST least $100 MILLION DOLLARS MORE A YEAR than the old Yankee Stadium?
Still worried about the Yankees payroll?
You want to argue about how they spend their money, I have no quibble with you.
But if you object to the total amount they spend, then there’s isn’t much to separate you from the Yankee-haters like Chris Russo who expend half their anti-Yankees diatribes whining about the size of their payroll, is there?
“That’s an rank untruth. The limit is at least 5 years, not 3. Just look at the Pavano contract, which enters its fourth year this year and for which the Yankees will collect insurance on, yet again.”
i believe that insurance companies have lowered the limit to 3 years sometime in the last few years.
OldYanksFan – are you honestly concerned with the yankees owners’ personal finances? do you get worried when they buy a new house or a sports car too?
———————————————————–
To Kill-Schill and Boston Dave -
My feelings have absoluely nothing to do with Yankee finances or profits. It has to do with sports and fair competition.
If I play someone my equal in racquetball and beat them, I feel good. If I play someone better then me and beat them, I feel VERY good. If however, I play my friend’s 7 year old daughter and beat her 21-0, I get no satisfaction at all.
The Yankees may always be the most profitable franchise in MLB. They are, after all, the Yankees of New York. However, our financial advantage does give us a competative advantage. Revenue sharing and draft picks do try to balance things out a bit.
Even with the biggest payroll, I am still proud when they win. But there is a limit. I guess they are truly rich enough, especially with YES and the projected income from the new stadium, to trade for Santana. They could also afford get C.C. as a FA, and also get Tex as an FA, and also buy a number of other elite players. Hell, I guess they could have a payrol of $300m and still be financially sound.
But I don’t want them too. It does not appeal to my sense of fair sport or competition. Do I want them to ’sell’ everyone and have a league average-ish payroll of $80m? No, I don’t. One thing about our payroll and money is we get to keep players throughout their careers, even if we overpay and don’t get a great bang for the buck. I’m fine to ‘waste’ money on ARods last 3 years, and to insure that Jeter, Mo and Po finish their careers, as Bernie did, as a Yankee. This, to me, is the real benefit of Yankee money and being a Yankee fan.
Who knows, maybe Cano, Phil and a bunch of others will be on that list one day. So to keep our ‘family’ together, I’m OK inflating the payroll to that end.
But like Cashman seems to indicate with his recent behavior, I would prefer for the Yankees to win using drafting and development skills, rather then buying other teams successful players when they becomes FAs. Does this mean I never want to buy a FA again? No. But I want some balance.
Our team now is certainly beginning to reach that balance. We have a number of young players, and hopefully, more coming. Our payroll won’t shrink much, but we should narrow the gap between us and other teams over the next few years.
And to me, this is a worthy goal. If there are those out there that are fine with a $250m-$300m payroll in order to win, so be it. It’s not my idea of sport. It is not the way I aspire to bild a winning team.
Keeping Phil and the kids, as well as saving $30+m/yr appeals to me on all sides. I still want to win, and feel we still have as good a shot as anyone. However, when we win a WS by beating Boston for the A.L., I can’t help but think the champagne will taste a little sweeter that year.
OldYanksFan,
are you senile? if so, ill overlook your shortcomings. if not, wow.. that’s all. wow.