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Dollars and sense regarding Joba

Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Mar 06, 2008 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

If you have read this blog for a while, you know I value the knowledge of Vince Gennaro. He’s one of the leading experts on baseball economics.

Check out the column Vince did on the financial ramifications of whether Joba Chamberlain should be a starter or a reliever.

Turns out that the bottom line indicates that Joba’s future should be as a starter. It’s an interesting take on the question.

Comments

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108 Responses to “Dollars and sense regarding Joba”

  1. mel March 6th, 2008 at 10:25 pm

    *Repost, just cuz I like seeing my writing*

    Are people here actually persecuting Joba for putting on a good face? I’d much rather him give a canned, cliche comment than say, “Hell yeah, I’m pissed. I want to be the standard bearer for those who are given the opportunity to meteorically rise through the system and actually help the club contrary to expectations. I’m also pissed that the clock on my service time was started earlier than planned.”

    I’d rather have it the Yankee way than this from Papelbon http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3280428:

    He said he wanted to set a salary standard for future outstanding closers.

    “I feel a certain obligation not only to myself and my family to make the money that I deserve but for the game of baseball,” he said Tuesday. “Mariano Rivera has been doing it for the past 10 years and with me coming up behind him I feel a certain obligation to do the same.” Wha?!

  2. mel March 6th, 2008 at 10:30 pm

    I’m sure if you ask Joba, he secretly wants to be a starter for that very reason. After all, it’s all about the money.

  3. Jeff NJ March 6th, 2008 at 10:35 pm

    I didn’t read the article, but it’s obvious starters make much more. Just compare Johan to Rivera. About $23M to $15M. In any case, I think that Joba should relieve for half the year then start.

  4. Rebecca--Optimist Prime--Mission 2708 March 6th, 2008 at 10:41 pm

    You know, I think once you make above a certain threshold, you shouldn’t be allowed to complain about the money.

  5. Rich March 6th, 2008 at 10:42 pm

    mel: Wha?! is all I can say as well. Papelbon is a great closer. But he needs to be dominating for another 7-8 years before he can even mention his own name in the sentence as Mariano’s.

  6. Single White Male March 6th, 2008 at 10:49 pm

    Pete, did Wang get a spanking from Girardi today after that so-called performance today? I hope he did, for it is wrong to have double standards.

  7. NY March 6th, 2008 at 10:52 pm

    Wang threw strikes the problem was those strikes were up….lol

  8. mel March 6th, 2008 at 10:53 pm

    Pat & CB,

    If you’re reading this you’re in the right place. :)

    Pat, thank you for that link. I’m glad that someone spoke up and addressed that corny statement.

    CB, last spring Papelbon was all set to start and had worked over the winter towards that goal. Then something happened to their “closer” (Timlin?) and Papelbon was promptly told he’d be going back into the pen. I read the article at espn.com with his comments and he was, let’s just say, openly disappointed. When I went back an hour later to the article, he was singing (with a cracked voice on video)the party line that he actually WANTS to close. The original quotes had disappeared into cyberspace. It was like the National Security Agency or aliens came in and wiped it all out. Weird. So, my point is that Papelbon may have accepted his role as a closer, but it was exactly a year ago that he had other aspirations.

  9. Yazman March 6th, 2008 at 11:01 pm

    Peter,

    How many games did Joba miss in 2006?

    If he didn’t miss many, his words may still be consistent with his actions.

    Even if playing the game and being on a team you love are your primary objectives, there’s no reason not to try to get as much money as you can. And if your especially generous and charitable, there’s all the more reason to maximize the money (again, even if it isn’t your primary objective).

    If you sit out a year for the money, it’s pretty clear what your primary objective is (even if you say it’s about “respect”).

    Just my $0.02

  10. Nate March 6th, 2008 at 11:01 pm

    Regardless of money, it’s common sense that if a guy can be just as successful as a starter as he can as a reliever, he should start. Most relievers are guys who weren’t very good starters. Even Mariano began as a starter, and wasn’t very good. Joba has shown, in the minors at least, that he can start, and 200IP of Joba is better than 70.

  11. raymagnetic March 6th, 2008 at 11:01 pm

    “Pete, did Wang get a spanking from Girardi today after that so-called performance today? I hope he did, for it is wrong to have double standards.”

    Wang is a veteran. I doubt Girardi spoke to him the same way he spoke to Joba and IPK.

  12. Andrea - anti-anti March 6th, 2008 at 11:03 pm

    Single White Male: Wang went back and threw a bullpen after. If he worked things out after, maybe a talking-to wasn’t necessary. I don’t remember if i read it here or somewhere else, but supposedly he was too strong and throwing too hard, so his sinkers were all up.

    Better it happens in ST than during the regular season.

  13. Yazman March 6th, 2008 at 11:03 pm

    *should be “if you’re especially generous and charitable”*

  14. raymagnetic March 6th, 2008 at 11:04 pm

    “How many games did Joba miss in 2006?

    If he didn’t miss many, his words may still be consistent with his actions.”

    When players sign contracts early after being drafted they usually play short season ball in Staten Island for the Yankees. Joba didn’t because he took too long to sign the contract because he was holding out for more money. Which by the way I don’t have a problem with. I also don’t have a problem with what he said either. Better to put on the good face than look like you need a pacifier.

  15. anti-mussina March 6th, 2008 at 11:05 pm

    girardi shouldnt be too hard on wang or he’ll cry…

  16. CB March 6th, 2008 at 11:24 pm

    This is a very interesting article. It’s essentially arguing the exact opposite of what many of the smaller market teams do with their prospects.

    I believe Gennaro is arguing that while the yankees have joba cost controlled for the next 6 years they should use him in the role which is of highest economic value on the open market.

    This year joba will make $390,000 regadless of how he’s used. But given the differential between what an average starter makes and what an average set up guy makes that $300,000 represents more value is its slotted into a starting spot rather than a set up spot.

    Usually I think of the team having to spend much more money once they decide to turn the player into a starter vs. saving money as a reliever.

    But over the cost controlled years I can see how that makes sense to get as many innings in the most expensive role possible that needs to be filled.

    Evan Longoria is one of the 2-3 best prospects in all of baseball. He’s absolutely ready to be in the majors and has nothing to prove in the minors.

    It actually looks as if the Rays are going to keep him in the minors this year in order to delay his free agency year.

    Basically they figure that they have 6 cheap years of a player like Longoria. Given that they don’t want to start his clock rolling towards free agency this year because they know that while they will be improved they won’t be that competative.

    They want to delay bringing him up so that the team will be better during those 6 cost controlled years. If they play longoria this year then he may add say 3-5 wins – they’ll go 75-87 without him and 78-84 with him. Not a big deal to them.

    They’d rather bring him up the next year when the team is close to winning more games over the next 6 years.

    It’s amazing – the Rays look like they are willing to let Longoria completely waste an entire year of his limited playing life just so they can maintain control of his 6 affordable years.

    Coming up at the age of 24 instead of 23 will literally cost Longoria millions of dollars but if he turns out to be what people think it could also cost him a spot in the hall of fame. Say he hits 470 home runs instead of 500?

    This is why players should get as much money as they can. We tend not to see how much money these owners make and what they do to maintain themselves financially.

  17. CB March 6th, 2008 at 11:31 pm

    “Joba didn’t because he took too long to sign the contract because he was holding out for more money.”

    Pete said something to this effect in his last post. I don’t believe this was accurate.

    The reason why Joba and Ian missed short season ball was because the commissioner’s office wouldn’t approve their contracts.

    The delay wasn’t an issue between Joba and the Yankees. It was with Bud Selig.

    Basically, the commissioners office wants all drafted players paid according to a slotting system. However that slotting system is not enforceable by the commissioner. There’s no punitive action they can take that will stop teams from paying over slot.

    The one thing Selig has done in response (revenge?) to teams that pay over slot is he delays approving their contracts. The commissioner’s office just sits on them. This in turn makes it difficult for many players paid over slot to make it to short ball.

    As I remember this is what happened with Joba. They weren’t haggling over the contract. It was Selig’s office.

    I could be wrong on that but I believe that’s what happenned.

    Anyway Joba played in winter ball and wouldn’t have if he’d played in short season ball so its a bit of a mute point.

  18. Jeff NJ March 7th, 2008 at 12:07 am

    CB, I heard an interview with the Rays GM a few days ago, he said that Longoria will be the team’s starting 3rd baseman sometime this year, if not opening day.

  19. bsilva March 7th, 2008 at 12:36 am

    Interesting take on Joba. Financially, however, the Yanks will make alot more than the 26 million they “save” by making Joba a starter if the win the World Series. They will use him in whatever way they perceive will most help them accomplish that. I hope they are right.

  20. mel March 7th, 2008 at 1:25 am

    Totally off topic, but I heard this great interview of Ricky Williams on the DP show.

    I’m not a Ricky or Dolphins fan, but I was totally drawn to his honesty about his weaknesses and his willingness to face them. He said some things about how it starts with lying to yourself and things get out of hand.

    Made me think of Roger (who btw is in deep you know what, they’re investigating a weight loss clinic in the Houston area now).

    Good listen if you have a little time:

    http://tinyurl.com/ys8ph8

  21. roundabout March 7th, 2008 at 1:36 am

    What’s Joba Chamberlain’s best value to the team – starter or reliever.
    Gennaro’s theory is based on what starters, set up men and relievers get paid. Anyone can slot Joba into ace, second or third or fourth starter or reliever and look at the paychecks of players around the game.

    But Gennaro doesnt answer the questions do the Yanks win more games with Joba as the 7th-8th inning bridge to Marinao or as a starter this year and maybe next few years? That’s the issue.

    Or Joba as the eventually the heir to Mariano – a anointment that has not been decided. Maybe Joba sets a new standard like Papelbon in Boston is destined to do.

    Nex year’s article by Gennaro – Austin Jackson/Jose Tabata: More value to Yanks as centerfielder or rightfield.

  22. whozat March 7th, 2008 at 6:42 am

    “But Gennaro doesnt answer the questions do the Yanks win more games with Joba as the 7th-8th inning bridge to Marinao or as a starter this year and maybe next few years? That’s the issue.”

    He said his full analysis looked at win shares too, so it seems like he did look at that question. It’s just not in that article.

    But, a good to great starter is worth more win shares than a great reliever. Always. They may have numbers that are lesser, but by consuming more than twice as many innings they make up for it.

  23. Yazman March 7th, 2008 at 8:02 am

    “The reason why Joba and Ian missed short season ball was because the commissioner’s office wouldn’t approve their contracts.”

    Thanks, CB. It would have been a tad disappointing if the Yanks and Joba had delayed his schedule over money. Glad to learn a) they didn’t and b) his schedule wasn’t even disrupted.

  24. Peter Abraham March 7th, 2008 at 8:10 am

    yazman: Not exactly. Their contracts were held up because they demanded so much to sign, way over the MLB suggestion. The Yankees agreed then MLB held it up, as everybody knew they would.

    If Joba and Ian (or specifically their agents) had agreed to slot, they could have been playing on June 15 and gotten more innings in.

    But both wanted more and the Yankees were willing to give it. That delayed the process.

  25. Yanksrule57 March 7th, 2008 at 8:51 am

    Re earlier comments on Longoria:

    The Rays may send him down for two weeks at the beginning of the season. If they do that according to the St Pete Times, they can delay his free agency date by a year.
    The old Rays management would definitely do that. This new group led by Andrew Freidman, might not. If the manager says he’s ready I think they will keep him in MLB. They are a little concerned with how he handles the pressure of being handed the job. They are looking at the way Alex Gordon in KC struggled last year. I think it also will depend on their read of Longoria’s attitude in the spring. I really think it could go either way right now.

  26. Jon March 7th, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    This is one of the saddest excuses for “analysis” I’ve seen. Not that I should expect anything great from Yahoo, but it really takes 12 paragraphs to discover that starters make more money than setup men? Really?

    Even more surprising, Pete, you found it worthwhile to link to it here? Maybe the “fancy” graph convinced you…

    In other news, through painstaking analysis and research, I have come to the conclusion that men would prefer to sleep with Jessica Alba than Rosanne Barr – can I get a column on Yahoo! now?

  27. Jon March 7th, 2008 at 12:31 pm

    “It’s amazing – the Rays look like they are willing to let Longoria completely waste an entire year of his limited playing life just so they can maintain control of his 6 affordable years.”

    Why is it amazing? Teams are going to do whatever’s best for them. If the union wants to play hardball with all their demands, I fully support teams in taking what they can get.

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