“Maybe next year – Tabata or Jackson may stickâ€¦”
I think that’s unlikely, especially for Tabata because of his age.
I think 2010 is more likely for Jackson – possibly Tabata but he might be 2011 given his age and how he’ll recover from last year’s wrist surgery this season.
Jackson is still fairly raw – he started making the transition from athlete to baseball player second half of last season – he’s got the tools to come very quickly but there’s still a lot he needs to work on.
Tabata is very young – he’ll be one of the youngest players in AA – and still is developing his ability to hit for power.
The jump from A to AA is very big – many say its the largest jump any player has to make in the minors.
I think even the AA team is gonna be slick this year. I took a trip last summer down to Trenton to watch a game (I think it was around $20 for a seat in the home plate area), and I was lucky enough to see Joba start that game. He went 6 innings, gave up no runs, and struck out 7 i think. Not bad value for my dollar…
The only guy on that list that would need a miracle to stick next year is Piliterre. The rest should have a chance. Miranda could come up this year. Tabata and Jackson start for the Yanks next year if they have a solid season at AA with some time at AAA, and Colin Curtis could make the team next year as a 4th OF if he breaks out this season.
CB – You are way off base on this one I think. In my opinion Tabata will compete for the starting RF job in spring training 2009. At the very least both him and Jackson will be September call-ups in 2009. They will both be in the majors full-time in 2010.
I have back to back games ..Opening Day ..then going to Trenton to see Scranton Yanks play Trenton Yanks on Tuesday.
I have seats right behind Scranton dugout and they only cost $10.00..can’t beat the price. I’m just hoping it’s not SNOWING for either games !!
“You are way off base on this one I think. In my opinion Tabata will compete for the starting RF job in spring training 2009.”
And you base your opinion on what?
Rushing players too fast is a sure way to negatively impact their development. Especially on a team that wants to compete in the post-season every year. Tabata has yet to show the power a RFer needs. Jackson has had ONE good half-season.
They’re exciting young players, yes, but it is VERY unlikely that they will come that quickly.
He is done with high A ball, will start at AA this season. Last season he hit over 300 with a broken bone in his hand. Like CB said the biggest jump is from A to AA (other than the jump to the majors). If he plays well this season in AA he will have very little left to prove. With his kind of talent there is no reason to play a full season in AAA. I expect him to hit very well this season in AA and get a late season call-up to AAA. If that happens what else does he have to prove?
I guess it all comes down to our expectations. If you expect him to do poorly in AA this year then yeah he will have to spend more time in the minors but if you expect him to excel in AA then there is no reason to stay any longer. So my question to you is, do you expect him to bomb in AA this year?
“CB – You are way off base on this one I think. In my opinion Tabata will compete for the starting RF job in spring training 2009.”
Patrick – you’re entitled to your opinion. I just disagree. Not a big deal.
I just don’t see 2009 as being realistic for Tabata.
Tabata is only 19 right now. He’s shown great hand speed, hand eye coordination, and an advanced plate approach in the minors so far.
All things you love to see from a prospect – and those are the reasons why he’s thought of so highly.
But Tabata has a lot of work to do on his game – a lot. And that’s completely understandable because he’s only 19.
The possibility of Tabata being an all star calliber player is still very much locked up in his potential. He hasn’t hit for power – at all during his minor league career. Not only doesn’t he hit many HR he hasn’t even gotten that many extra base hits. Look at his slugging percentages – they are not good.
He also hits a very high percentage of balls on the ground suggesting he may be hitting down on the ball. The yankees may need to adjust his swing. It’s that kind of thing, as an example, that makes it very unlikely he’ll be ready in 2009, IMO.
Again – those aren’t criticisms of him – he’s a player in development and I think he’ll hit for more power. How much? Hard to say. But it’ll improve.
But his power hitting tools just aren’t there yet and they are not going to develop in the majors. They just won’t. You rush a guy like Tabata and you’re really doing him an injustice. We’ve seen this happen over and over with good prospects.
That’s the biggest difference between Jackson and Tabata – Jackson has shown strong progression in his ability to drive the ball and hit for power. Tabata hasn’t.
The jump from single A to double A is huge – tabata will already be amongst the youngest players in the league. The yankees have been very cautious with him. In all likelihood he’ll play the entire 2008 season in AA (as I think jackson will but he has more of a chance to get to AAA, IMO).
In 2009 he’ll be pegged for AAA. Don’t sell that short – he’ll be in AAA by the time he’s 20!
And another thing just for context – some scouts feel that Tabata’s work ethic is lacking. That he takes plays off and still isn’t dedicated to being in the best baseball condition possible. People think this will delay his progression.
For him to be up in 2009 would place him in the majors at the age of 20. That’s basically the timeline you see with ultra-elite prospects like a Justin Upton or a jay bruce.
Tabata is good – but he’s not even close to being in the class with that kind of player.
“After all he is 19 in AA. Thatâ€™s impressive right there.”
Sure. But he still hasn’t shown power. I expect his slugging to get better, as a result of having healthy wrists. But a guy his age is still filling out…the likelihood that he’d be able to slug enough to hold down RF in the majors a year from now is pretty low. I mean, CANO’s power is still developing, and he’s 25.
Give the kid time to develop at an appropriate pace.
Basically my point is that if a player proves himself in AA there is very little purpose to spending an entire season in AAA. If you expect him to be in AAA in 2009 that means you think he will do very well in AA this year. The jump from AA to AAA is very minimal. Players like Jackson and Tabata should only need to spend a few months or less in AAA.
you guys are really rushing very young guys with little to no aa experience. niether will be in the yanks lineup before mid season 09 at best.
as for pilatelli, he may have more experience with hughes, but kennedy made only 9 starts at trenton and joba 7 (idk whether pilatelli caught all of them even)
i have heard 2 different reporters ask joba how comfortable it is to have his minor league pitching coach (eiland) up with the yanks this season.
eiland was joba’s minor league pitching coach for all of 8 innings last season
“If you expect him to do poorly in AA this year then yeah he will have to spend more time in the minors but if you expect him to excel in AA then there is no reason to stay any longer. So my question to you is, do you expect him to bomb in AA this year?”
You’ve set up a false dichotomy here. It’s not an either or where he’s going to excel OR bomb.
It very well could be something in the middle.
Chances are he’s going to play well – I think he’ll probably hit close to .300 or potentially higher. It wouldn’t surprise me if he finally hit .320 or .330 as people are expecting him to be able to do.
But I don’t expect him to suddenly start hitting for tremendous power. In nothing else he’s coming off hamate surgery and many people say it takes a full season to completely recover from that. It’s not debilitating but it takes time to get your hands back into complete health.
So he could very well have a mixed year – similar to what he’s done before. Nice average, limited power.
If that’s the case then he does need more time in the minors.
The question of how much power he will hit for and how much
is a very real one for him. To say he will hit for power is pure projection at this point – until he demonstrates that skill it’s an open question.
“i have heard 2 different reporters ask joba how comfortable it is to have his minor league pitching coach (eiland) up with the yanks this season.
eiland was jobaâ€™s minor league pitching coach for all of 8 innings last season”
This has nothing to do with this post, but I just read on ESPN.com that the Yankees are close to letting the last event at Yankee Stadium be a hockey game. Peter, I know you are against this as am I. Somehow Yankee fans need to let the organization know that it does a disservice to the integrity and legacy of the Stadium to have a hockey game be the final event. If there are any ideas from fellow Yankee fans on how to get the word out please act upon them.
jim, judging by the replies on this log there is little resistance to the hockey game. the majority of the comments were either neutral or solidly in favor of the rangerr or giants closing out the stadium after the yanks finish
Don’t know if this was mentioned before, but XM radio did a whole program about the non-baseball events that took place at Yankee Stadium. For example, some of the greatest professional boxing matches took place right over 2nd base -70,000 fans or something like that.
A book is being published this spring with all of these events covered.
I know; I read the comments. However, there is something to be said about tradition and identity. Yankee Stadium, in its history, has been host to many sporting events that were not baseball related, but its overall aura and legacy will be forever associated with baseball and the Yankees. Obviously…Now, I know that a hockey game, in reality, will not necessarily destory that legacy, but I feel that out of principal, and as Peter wrote, the last player/fan to leave the Stadium should be one associated with baseball. For me Yankee Stadium is a special place, as it is for many people. I no longer live and New York (Colorado now), but I try to make it out at least once a year to catch up with family and catch a Yankee game. My point is that there is no place more special to catch a ballgame then Yankee Stadium. To me that says a lot about what the final sporting event should be at that historic site.
Actually, I noted, that if AJax or Tabata do compete for a starting role next year, I believe AJax will compete for the CF role vice the RF role. IF Ajax is the OF of choice, the Yankees would more than likely move Melky to right. IF Tabata makes the team, he’ll be a RF vs CF and they’d probably leave Melky in Center. IF (and big if here) both are ready, Ajax takes CF, Tabata/Melky RF and Melky/Damon left or Damon DH’s. But that scenario is more likely for 2010 than 2009.
I see where you are coming from but our opinions differ in this case. Its tough to project what will happen until we see how Tabata plays this season. I think he will really break out in AA now that he is over his hand/wrist problems. If that happens I can see him competing for a starting role in spring training or perhaps spending a few months in AAA at the beginning of 2009 with a midseason callup. It could also play out like you think, only time will tell.
Ok so of the non-roster invitees who’s left? Who is still fighting for a position? I saw the game the other day and Brett Gardner is super quick, and Greg Porter seems to crush anything that comes his way. Are they going to stay up or will they reassign them as well?
I don’t know much about Jay Bruce & Justin Upton yet, but the way their talent/development/time lines are put in perspective, they’re on par with Andruw Jones. With the exception of last year, he turned out pretty good.
I wonder how Tabata/AJax compare to a more familiar star at the same age … Bernie Williams. I really don’t know. If they were to become anything slightly resembling Bernie at his best, the Yanks would have two OFs they could be real happy with. A Griffey Jr clone or a Jones clone (in their primes) would be even better, but those guys are so few and far between.
Upton may well be one of the best talents of this generation. But if he’s really that good and our prospects just aren’t as good as he is, it’s not a bad thing. Nobody else’s prospects are either.
I’m glad we’re stacked with outfielders down under. We have 3 outfielders who will be free agents within the next 2 years. We may sign some of them back, but lets face it, they’re backing into the end of their careers.
“Does anyone think Lane would accept a AAA assignment from the Yankees, or move on to try to pick up with a Major League club?”
I’d be surprised to see Lane take a minor league assignment with the yankees, but it would be a terrific depth move for the club if he would.
If he continues to hit well in ST then I think he could catch on somewhere.
He’d be a definite upgrade over what the mets have right now , for instance.
(an aside – the mets got santana but really didn’t bother making any of the smaller moves to add depth to a very old team – they could have signed lane or ensberg but didn’t bother…)
Given that the yankees already basically have 4 major league outfielders on the 25 man and then shelley on top of that. I’d have to think Lane would go elsewhere even if it were to sign a minor league deal. His chances of getting called up would be much greater with another team that has less depth.
Back bench – ESPN is going to be airing vignettes with major events that occurred at Yankee Stadium:
ESPN will announce later today a series of 30 vignettes to mark the final season at the current Yankee Stadium. The series, called “Remembering the House that Ruth Built,” will feature 10 episodes (one each day) starting March 22 and leading up to Opening Day, another 10 before the All-Star Game and another 10 before the regular-season finale.
Here are the first 10 subjects:
April 18, 1923 â€“ first game at Stadium; Babe homers, Bosox lose
Sept. 30, 1927 â€“ Babe hits his record 60th home run of the season
Nov. 10, 1928 â€“ Knute Rockne urges a win for Gipper; Irish respond
June 19, 1936/June 22, 1938 â€“ Schmeling upsets Louis; Louis KOs Schmeling
July 4, 1939 â€“ Lou Gehrig considers himself lucky
Nov. 9, 1946 â€“ Army and Notre Dame play to a scoreless tie
June 13, 1948 â€“ Babe Ruth makes his final public appearance in a Yankees uniform
Aug. 17, 1948 â€“ Ruth lays in state for two days
June 25, 1952 â€“ Sugar Ray Robinson loses to Joe Maxim
Oct. 4, 1955 â€“ Johnny Podres tosses a shutout; Dodgers win Series
“You think maybe weâ€™re stacked at the outfield?”
Eh…If all turns out for the best, yes. But two of these guys are still fairly far away, and EVERYTHING has to fall right for Gardner to be an MLB starter. If Jackson and Gardner were flip-flopped in terms of where they are developmentally, I’d feel REALLY good. It’d mean that we’d have one guy who’s reasonably a year away from hitting the majors and can be expected to produce at a solidly above average level, and another guy who’s two years or so away from probably being a complementary role-player type — as opposed to the opposite, which is what we’ve got right now.
â€œYou are way off base on this one I think. In my opinion Tabata will compete for the starting RF job in spring training 2009.â€
Both JD and Mats are signed through 2009. They might not be great, but AJax and Tabata would have to be better in order to rate a call up. I think it’s very unlikely. Plus, if Bobby has a good year, he may well be signed up for another year or 2. 2010? Yes. 2009? Doubtful, or maybe when rosters expand at the end of the season.
On top of that, Tabata has far from the prototypical power corner OF body, if his current data is correct. 5’11″, 160 lbs. doesn’t scream power. Maybe we’ve got a Toy Cannon of our own on the way. But he hasn’t shown it yet. He’s moving well ahead of his age, but not because of his power.
I agree that a spot could open in ’09, as Matsui could move to DH and Abreu will be a FA. But I also don’t see the Yanks handing both these guys jobs to start ’09 in a brand new Stadium. They should both make appearances if they progress without hiccups – but that’s why they call them prospects. We’re starting to sound a little like Rays fans here – all our prospects are sure things, everything is beautiful.
Don’t forget Eric Duncan – who isn’t finished but hasn’t straight lined to the bigs either. How nice would it be to have a young, lefty hitting 1B power prospect right now, rather than a guy in his 3rd crack at AAA. His performance was never at Tabata’s level, but Jackson was a bit disappointing until this year. Duncan was (or nearly was) MVP of the AFL 2 years ago – Jackson was very good in HWB this year, but that’s a lower level. Pushing prospects beyond their performance is a lesson Duncan’s taught the org well. I hope they soar, but they won’t be rushed.
Tabata is only 19 years old. The power will come. No one in the system is concerned about this “lack of power.” It’s the last thing to rear its head in many young hitters. This boy is a stud now, and already has displayed ability to drive the ball, so the power is napping for now.