Now, Scott Patterson should definitely be in the pen. His performance this Spring has been fantastic and recognized by all who are paying attention. It seems to me that he should get the opportunity in the spirit of the Yankee organization seeking out those who excel! That said, he’s definitely a more impressive choice than Brian Bruney whose control is abominable. Go Yanks! Can’t wait for Opening Day.

uhh Pete, he stole 27 of 30 in 2007. are you serious?

I agree that starting line-up is clearly above average — highly unusual to have so many good hitters capable of stealing 20-35 bases. The only point I would emphasize a bit more is how unusual Jeter’s injury-affected year was. He is ordinarily not just an above-average or very good base runner, but probably one of the best in all of baseball. This derives really from a combination of speed and judgment. He is simply unexcelled at calculating whether or not he can take the extra base. In a typical year, Jeter will be safe on at least 15 close plays where he chooses to take the extra base. And he rarely gets thrown out — unlike many other aggressive runners. Last year, of course, was an anomaly. Even gimping along on a bad l;eg he was still somewhat above average. Hopefully, he’ll be healthy this year.

I am really dumbfounded as to why Bruney is even a Yankee these days. So he was REALLY good in his first stint. Now he sucks and has continued to suck over the past 2 years.

So why?

The Twins and Angels were the next best with 4 each.

The Orioles, Tigers, and Rangers had 3 each. 3 out of 9 isn’t that great.

And a whopping six AL teams only had 2 players that stole double-digit bases last year (Red Sox, Blue Jays, White Sox, Indians, Mariners, Athletics). That is pretty astounding. Perhaps the AL is just filled with lumbering players that are slow, I don’t know. But having 5 guys that can steal bases is a huge luxury. More than half the Yankee lineup is pretty good at stealing bases.

This means that the Yankees aren’t vlunerable to a big injury wiping about their overall team stolen base ability. For example, Grady Sizemore and Ichiro each accounted for about 46% of their respective team’s overall stolen bases in 2007. That’s huge. If those guys get injured those teams will have no speed. Jerry Owens accounted for 41% of the White Sox’s stolen bases from last season. The Orioles already lost Corey Patterson’s 37 SB’s from last year to the Reds. And If Brian Roberts (50 SB’s in 2007) is traded away, the Orioles will be poor at stealing bases next season. These teams that have only 2 or 3 guys that can steal double-digit bases are pretty vulnerable in that regard. And 9 AL teams fit that criteria in 2007. That is kind of crazy. And even if those guys do stay healthy, wouldn’t you rather have a lineup with multiple speed options in 4 or 5 lineup spots than just two or three speed demons in the lineup? If Ichiro or Grady or Roberts slumps this year and doesn’t reach base too often, the team’s speed takes a huge dive because nobody else on the team can make up for that.

But the Yankees are better off because they don’t have just one superman like Jose Reyes who accounts for half the team’s stolen bases. They have 5 guys who can all steal over 10 bases, and 4 of those guys can probably steal 20 or more in 2008. That’s pretty darn good. If someone gets hurt or is ineffective it doesn’t matter too much because the others can still steal some bases as well, so that offensive component of the game is still potent. The regular Yankee lineup is looking pretty good in terms of baserunning and stolen base abilities, in my opinion.

The teams ranked as follows, in raw number of stolen bases, followed by succes rate:

Orioles: 144 (77.42%)
Angels: 139 (71.65%)
Devil Rays: 131 (73.18%)
Yankees: 123 (75.46%)
Twins: 112 (78.87%)
Tigers: 103 (77.44%)
Red Sox: 96 (80.00%)
Rangers: 88 (77.88%)
Mariners: 81 (72.97)
Royals: 78 (63.93%)
White Sox: 78 (63.41%)
Indians: 72 (63.72%)
Blue Jays: 57 (72.15%)
Athletics: 52 (72.22%)

The Yankees had the 4th most steals and the 6th best success rate, which is pretty good. The Angels had a very high stolen base number but the fourth worst success rate, so I would argue that the Yankees were a better baserunning team than the Angels were based on that. Actually it is probably a waste of time to look at the top tier teams. Just look at the bottom 7 teams, starting with Texas. Those teams aren’t even close to the Yankees in raw stolen base numbers. So even if you don’t think the Yankees are going to be great with baserunning next year, I do believe it is a huge stretch to say there is very little speed on this team as you originally stated. Even if they do decline a bit, there’s no way those bottom 7 teams are catching up to them next season. They will still be an above average team when it comes to stolen bases.

Also, I should mention that out of the 123 Yankee stolen bases from 2007, only 8 of them came from players who are no longer with the team. Those 8 all came from Miguel Cairo. So I think this is where Gardner could help out down the line since the bench has very little speed this year. The regular lineup has good speed compared to at least half of the AL teams.

There is also the new manager factor to consider. I don’t really have a clue on that one though. Do you think the Yankees will be more or less aggressive with baserunning under Girardi? I would imagine there wouldn’t be that much of a difference overall, but maybe you have some inside info on that aspect of it.