Today in The Journal News: 2008 preview
-
- March
- 27
The Journal News ran its 2008 season preview section today. Our theme was centered around the closing of Yankee Stadium and Shea Stadium.
Stories include:
A look back at Yankee Stadium.
A list of the Top 10 games played there.
A 2008 season preview of the Yankees.
A scouting report on the Yankees. Warning: I predict them to win 87 games and miss the playoffs. I think this is one of those “take a step back to take two steps forward” seasons.
Here are five pressing questions about the Yankees.
Sam Borden takes a look at the new Stadium rising in the Bronx.
Brian Heyman asked players with ties to Westchester, Putnam and Rockland counties what they remembered about playing at Yankee Stadium and Shea Stadium.
Ricky Flores of LoHud.com put together a terrific video about Yankee Stadium despite my involvement.
There are also an assortment of stories about the Mets and Shea Stadium.
This entry was posted
on Thursday, March 27th, 2008 at 9:10 am by Peter Abraham.
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Peter Abraham
They will go to the playoffs. Sorry, Pete
93 wins and they’ll narrowly make the playoffs.
Fortunately for us Yankee fans, Pete will be proven wrong once again.
Pete,
I feel betrayed. 2nd place, no playoffs. Come on!
Here’s what I want… none of the three pitchers getting injured and Brian Cashman comes back. Anything more is all gravy.
Guys: I hope they make the playoffs, I’d rather cover a playoff team. I also think it’s entirely possible they just mash they way in.
Here’s what troubles me:
New manager in his first season in New York, A-Rod and Posada can’t possibly repeat what were career seasons for them in 2007, the young pitchers will have their ups and down, Pettitte had a terrible offseason and is already having medical issues, Mussina isn’t as bad as some people think but he’s also at the end of his career, I question the bullpen beyond Mo and Joba and even Mo isn’t what he used to be.
That said, if things break they can 95 games.
I’m not going to get in a day-long argument on this. I picked the Yankees to win the World Series last year. This is not an anti-Yankees pick no matter how you want to spin it. I’m going to write what I actually think, not what I think you want to hear.
I’ve had many scouts and several GMs tell me this spring they think the Yankees can finish third.
I also will say this: whatever step back they take this year will lead to a huge step forward once they move across the street. The organization is loaded with talent and pitching and will be a powerhouse in years to come.
Pete,
I concede that the Indians have a stronger team right now. But I predict that the Red Sox are going to have real problems with their pitching. Lester and Bucholtz? Nah. And Dice-K doesn’t scare us. They have Beckett. Period. They are no lock to beat the Yanks this season. And the Tigers? They are loaded offensively, but their pitching is no great shakes. Their bullpen is a MESS.
Yes, we are dealing with the unknown as far as our pitching goes, but we saw some good stuff peaking through at the end of last year with Phil and Ian. I’m picking us second in the AL and first in our division.
Lol I don’t see the Yankees finishing 3rd
I would expect more than a fashionable “Yankees won’t make the playoffs” pick from you, Pete, which has already gotten old.
People don’t seem to understand that the pitching — even with two young kids — will be improved this year. There were a lot of starts by DeSalvo and Clippard and people like that last year. Ian Kennedy will be taking those starts, and that’s going to mean a lot.
I don’t understand why Girardi being new is going to hurt the team — will A-Rod forget how to hit?
I mean, it makes as much sense as saying that Larry Bowa going to L.A. will hurt Cano’s defense. Just because Bowa got in Cano’s face doesn’t mean that it was Bowa out on the field making the plays. It’s exaggerated assertions like this that makes fans tune out writers.
Pete, one of the things I love about you is that you AREN’T anti-Yankees. What fan needs that kind of reporter? I almost always agree with your assessments, but not this time. The boys are going to prove those all-knowing scouts and GMs wrong!
I agree with you, Pete. I think they’ll finish second with 87-90 wins, but there are too many good teams in the AL for the wildcard to go to a 90-win team.
I think there are just too many questions to predict a playoff berth. I hope I’m wrong, but with issues in the rotation, pen, first base and all three OF positions, I can’t realistically expect them to win the division.
3rd? He must have been talking to Gammons.
games are played on the field… ’nuff said.
“I think there are just too many questions to predict a playoff berth. I hope I’m wrong, but with issues in the rotation, pen, first base and all three OF positions, I can’t realistically expect them to win the division”.
I believe we had all those issues last year and won what 94 games. We are better in the rotation, pen, first base and Outfield is the same. I’m expecting a tough fight for the div, loser makes the playoffs.
How did Game 2 of the ALDS in 1995 against the Mariners not make the list. Mattingly’s final Yankee Stadium homer, and Leyritz’s walk off.
The place shook wildly that night.
There may be rioting if we finish 3rd
Pete, How could you include Giambi’s Grand slam against the Twins as one of the 10 greatest moments in Yankee Stadium History?
Pete,
You have NOTHING to explain to anyone. This is your blog and your pick was your opinion. That’s fine. In the end, it doesn’t matter what you or I think, what matters is the AL East standings in about 6 months.
Personally, I think Detroit is going to win the World Series. On paper, they just look too good. That doesn’t make me any less of a Yankees fan or any worse as a writer.
PECOTA projetions say 97 wins. The difference between 87 and 97 is simply huge so that won’t happen.
The timeline of Yankee Stadium says that may 6th game that Roger Clemens announced he was coming back was against the pirates.
It was against the Mariners, it was also the game where the benches cleared and there was nearly a brawl.
Pete
Your concerns are duly noted, but I respectfully (and cautiously) disagree.
The starters will be serviceable, and the offense will be amazing. Abreu is in a contract year and may just win the MVP, if Cano doesn’t snatch it away from him. Giambi will mash, until he gets hurt. Then there’s A-Rod and the rest.
Yanks vs. Tigers, always a big deal where I live, promises to be very fun this year.
It would take a Jeter,Abreu,Arod and Posada major injury all at once for the Yankees to finish 3rd. I’m talking broken legs/broken arms with those players.
Blue Jays have to worry about their own pitchers staying healthy. Which they never do. They’re not finishing ahead of the Yankees.
I think the questions surrounding the Yankees are legitimate to a degree, but these same questions generally hold true for all of the dominant AL teams. I think for the Yankees to finish third, we would have to experience an unprecedented string of injuries and widespread precipitous statistical regressions. It seems if the Yankees and Red Sox are comparably healthy, our ceiling is certainly high enough to win the division. (Just ask PECOTA!)
jimmy1138 and Jax, I completely agree.
I’d be more worried about the Rays than the Blue Jays. The kids could surprise.
I’m guessing you think the Red Sox will finish first? They have the same problem the Yanks do, reliance on young pitching. The difference is they don’t have the offensive firepower to win despite it. Despite his hot start, Manny has shown clear evidence of decline in the past few seasons. Lowell had a career year and is bound to regress. Ellsbury is likely to be no better than Melky this year (ignore the small sample size of the playoffs and look at his MLE’s). Nancy Drew cant stay healthy. Varitek is a joke offensively at this point. Pedroia is a singles hitter and will also likely regress based on his MLE’s. Basically they rely on Big Papi (who’s also an injury concern). They will struggle to score 800 runs this season.
The Sox run suppression relies on Lester (who has shown clear problems with control) and Bukholtz (an admitidely great prospect, but burdened by an innings cap and no better than Hughes or Joba).
I am not sure how you have come to your conclusion. I guess its just your gut feeling.
Statistical models (you know, knowledge seperated from bias), rate the Yanks as the best team in the division. Lokk at some of the projections SG has done at: www.replacementlevel.com
Barring injury, the Yankees are clear favorites to win the division. We are also best equipped to handle injury, with a deep bench, farm system, and financial resources.
What a baseless prediction Pete. I expected better from you.
I do agree, however, that regardless of how THIS year goes, this team has a great future. I hope at least one of Tabata and Jackson makes it as a MLB starter for the Yankees. Horne is also ML capable.
I am not as worried about the Yankees bullpen just because no other team’s bullpen is so incredibly solid. I think the season lies on the starting pitching, and while this isn’t exactly 5 20-game winners, barring injury, I like our chances. We made the playoffs last year with 182 different starting pitchers and injuries, and I see no reason not to expect the same this year. Sure, we might not get a career season repeated from Jorge, but do you really think it’s not possible to get those kind of numbers again from Rodriguez? With Alex, I think it is entirely possible.**
On the 10 Greatest Games at Yankee Stadium list, I’d lop off the Giambi-Grand-Slam game and replace it with either Bernie’s walk off against Boston in the 1999 ALCS, or perhaps David Cone’s Perfecto…or Boomer’s. My three most memorable that I was actually there for was Dave Righetti’s no-no on 7/4/83, the aforementioned Bernie walk-off in the 99 ALCS, or a NYY/BOS game in 1993 (I think) that the final out was recorded while two fans ran on the field, causing the pitch that Mike Stanley flew out on (third out, Boston “won” 4-2) to be called a no-pitch, and the Yanks ended up winning the game on a Donnie Baseball single, 5-4.
**Plus, I think we’re all underestimating the fact that we don’t have the “Carl Pavano was our Opening Day starting pitcher” stigma hanging over our heads - no denying that.
Yankees = 7 game lead in the division on May 1, resulting from a combination of Girardi kicking the team in the butt (no slow start) and the Red Sox travel schedule. I’d be stunned if they do not make the postseason.
Season record = 99-63
i don’t mind Pete’s prediction. I think he’s just using reverse psychology
Pete: Good work but I have one question. Why have you completely left Morgan Ensberg out both the preview and five questions article? This guy was an all star a couple of years ago and he’s still only 32. He was a perennial .850 OPS+ man before he got hurt. On paper, the guy still kills lefties. He is a good defender at 3B. Most good 3B can play very good 1B.
On paper, there is no reason to believe that he wouldn’t be the first guy to start platooning at 1B and could even win the job if Giambi can’t play there regularly.
I prefaced everything I said with “on paper” because I would like to know what condition you believe he is really in. Has he declined so badly that he is just a utility man? Or is he still injured? Or does he need to completely prove himself to Girardi? Or would your print editor cut you if you actually presented the Duncan/Betemit/Ensberg fight for backup 1B as an important issue?
Mr Abraham,
On the subject of Yankee Stadium closing, River Ave Blues is reporting that the dimensions may end up being different and making the park MUCH more hitter friendly. I remember hearing that the dimensions were not going to change when the new park is to be opened, could you shed any more light on this?
Peter,
I don’t mind your prediction - I think you’re wrong, but you’re entitled to your opinion.
My question is - don’t you have an editor? We expect your anti-ARod bias on the blog, but in print I expect more objectivity. The problem is this line:
“Can A-Rod repeat as MVP?
After torturing the Yankees and the fans the way he did during the offseason by opting out of his contract, then sneaking back, he owes them that much.”
Wrong, wrong, wrong. He didn’t torture anyone (except maybe you by making you look foolish after your “aliens in central park” prediction). He did not “sneak” back, and he does NOT owe us an MVP.
I have no issue with picking against the yanks…but your prediction and your season preview don’t really match up. You say the offense will be roughly the same as last year/maybe a little better. So what then will lead to the 7-10 win drop from last season? Pitching? Do you even remember last year at all?? Pavano started opening day with Igawa in the rotation. Karstens, Wright, Desalvo and that ilk made a significant number of starts. How can you possibly think that the pitching will be worse this year. You seem to be buying into the mainstream media line of thinking that a contending team can’t go into the season relying on young pitchers and be fully successful but if you recall Hughes and IPK were both in the rotation during the yanks rally to almost catch the sox last year. Also, its tough to predict bullpens, but I would challenge anyone to argue that the bullpen is set to be weaker this year than last.
The only way your prediction and your preview line up is if you think
a. mussina is completely finished (which your preview says you dont)
or b. hughes and/or IPK are either completely not ready for the majors or not mlb caliber pitchers and are going to fail miserably this year
Also yes, Posada and Arod most likely wont repeat their banner years, but I would still expect solid seasons from both of them. We also no longer have 5 different pitchers like Tyler Clippard making spot starts, or at least we shouldnt. The positives that we can or should expect however are as follows: a truly banner year for Cano, a return to form for Damon, and for Abreu to not start of so slowly. Abreu and Damon showed up in shape and Cano is due for a monster year. Throw in Jeters ramped up off-season conditioning and I think we have a legitimate chance.
That being said your obviously more then entitled to your opinion and keep up the good work
The Red Sox bring back their team that had mostly everything break right for them last season, they lose Schilling, and yet are projected to win just as much as they did last year.
However, The Yankees bring back THEIR team, which was racked with fluke injuries and uncustomary ineffectiveness for half the season, but STILL won 94 games, and they lose 7 wins?
Doesn’t really make sense, does it? I wish people would take off the ‘World Series champions’ blinders. Those teams always get vastly overrated due to a couple more wins in October. Remember the 2005 White Sox? How about the 2002 Angels, where did they end up the next year? WS teams are always overrated. A good rule of thumb is to take a big under on what people are projecting them to do.
For the first time in how many years, the Yankees are being underrated. And that’s just fine. It will feel really good to see Steve Phillips and John Kruk spit and splutter, trying to explain away Yankee success and make excuses for the Red Sox.
Alright, Pete. Yanks win 95 games and beat Boston in a tiebreaker for the AL East Title by winning the regular season series.
“Joe Girardi will be a more aggressive in-game manager than Torre, but he has never guided a team successfully through a pennant race.”
Check Yourself! Joe Girardi has been a marinating beast of a manager, who has been killing for this opportunity since he was playing as a catcher. Joe Torre was great, but Girardi’s firey demeanor is just what this team needs. He took a team of no-namers right into the mix of a playoff race after Florida’s Fire Sale. Overall, he’s hungrier than any coach out there and managerial “inexperience” could turn out to hugely benefit him, because he doesn’t know any better than to push this team to the limit. He’s classy and has given Torre credit where credit was due, but it’s a new era and Girardi is IN. Any team with the solid veteran leadership of guys like Jeter, Posada, and Rivera won’t tolerate anything less than winning. Hold on for this awesome ride they’re about to put us on and let’s enjoy what’s going to be an awesome and memorable season.
Pete - I strongly disagree with your prediction. The Yanks had pitching woes the beginning of last season that put them in a hole bigger than the Grand Canyon. Not likely to happen again. My prediction 100-62.
“take a step back to take two steps forward”
No way. If they don’t make the playoffs, the Cashman philosophy explodes. Hank fires him, brings in some organizational puppet to take his place, and orders that all that money coming off the payroll (and then some) gets diverted to whatever free agent talent is available. That means oversized contracts for Sabathia and Teixeira … and, hell, I could even see the Red Sox cutting ties with Manny banking on Hank handing him an 8 year contract. He might even decide to correct the Santana mistake, ordering that Hughes, Kennedy, and (if needed) Horne get traded for John Smoltz and a backup catcher. We move into the new stadium with the same old team — a motley collection of aging stars with little real motivation and (still) the highest payroll in the sport by a mile.
Forgot will or won’t. This team MUST make the playoffs.
So lemme get this straight. The Red Sox will be just fine with only 2 proven pitchers, but the Yankees won’t be fine with the same number of proven starters? And Beckett starting the season with injury concerns (Actually the same one as PEtitte)
That’s with the Yankees superior lineup, and a bullpen that has as good an 8-9 as most teams. Last years Red Sox team scored 100 fewer runs than the Yankees despite the Yankees lineup sleeping through April and May.
What about the Red Sox young pitching? Clay Bucholtz had an awful spring, Jon Lester looked bad to open the season.(He has never impressed me)
That leaves them relying on Tim Wakefield if the young pitching has their up and downs, like you said the Yankees will. That sounds like a funny joke. Beckett and Dice-K vs Wang and Pettitte. It’s not that far off, considering Wang has been solid in back to back seasons, and Dice-k was a mess last year.
Gimme then Yankees with 94 games to win the division
I liked Pete’s analyses a lot, but I don’t think it’s a big deal that the Yanks lack a true defensive replacement at first. Of course, it makes sense to rest Giambi in the late innings of a game where the Yanks have a comfortable lead, but it’s unlikely that fielding play at first base in the last inning or two will decide a game. I think teams use late inning defensive replacements because they can, rather than because they need to.
Pete - I think Joe Girardi will surprise you. I expect him to be very successful with this team.
Pete,
nothing wrong with your prediction. I think they’ll win at least 90 but may not make the playoffs. I believe this season will be very unpredictable… so predictions right now don’t mean all that much.
p.s. Clare is one of my favorite posters on the blog - and one of the most intelligent.
Pete, I hope this prediction works out as well as when you picked the Pats to win the Super Bowl!
Pete I know its hard to narrow a list down to just 10 games but I have to disagree with yours. For example the Giambi game doesn’t belong there. Game 6 of the ‘96 world series deserves to be on there much more than that. Or the game against the Red Sox where Jeter went into the stands face first. That game was unbelievable.
also about that top 10 games list… Interesting… all of the top ten either happen before 1978 or between 2000-2003?
How is the Giambi game a better game then the 2004 John Flaherty walkoff, Jeter dives into the stands, A Rod forces a double play diving to get the ball then throwing to home game.
Peter,
The video you posted has a glaring error in it. At 1:15 in the video, you show a stadium that is NOT Yankee Stadium. It looks more like an old Tiger Stadium than it does Yankee Stadium. The break in the upper deck is a dead give away, and the two-tier structure is also obvious because Yankee Stadium was the first three-tiered. Just wanted to bring that to your attention.
Also, how about the game the day of Munson’s funeral where Murcer won it?
“Also, how about the game the day of Munson’s funeral where Murcer won it?”
———————————————————-
Great call. It wasn’t a post season game. It wasn’t a full, or near full stadium. It wasn’t even a good Yankee team. But Bobby, who was in tears before the game, had 5 RBI, including a HR and a late inning, 2 RBI single to take the lead (when behind 3-4) and win the game.
How much more emotional could a game be?
if you’re predicting that they’ll score as much or more than 960 runs, they’ll win in the range of the low 90s to the 100s, most likely 94-98.
unless the pitching totally breaks down - meaning it would have to be MUCH worse than last year’s staff, which was league average. that seems unlikely.
Cue Allen Iverson/Jim Mora voice: “87 wins? 87 wins? Are you kidding me? 87 wins?”
Uh, Peter, that means 75 losses and that’s too many in a division with Tampa Bay, Baltimore and, to a lesser extent, Toronto.
Minimum 90 wins. Playoffs? Now that’s a horse of a different color…