Waiting and wondering
-
- April
- 9
No word on yet on the state of the roster.
Jorge Posada said he was going to get an MRI this morning and the Yankees will probably want to have that evaluated before they decide what to do.
There are several options here:
1. Put Jeter and Posada on the disabled list, call up replacements.
2. Put Jeter or Posada on the disabled list, call up one replacement.
3. Give Jeter and Posada a few extra days, option Shelley Duncan and call up a catcher or shortstop.
4. Do nothing.
I think they should put Jeter and Posada on the DL, ship them down to Florida and get them healthy. It’s a long season and there’s no sense sending them out to play in cold weather with muscle injuries.
That would make for a long two weeks. But the Yankees looked finished in May last season and made the playoffs. How could they be finished in April?
No matter how it plays out, this is the first real test for Joe Girardi. It has all been hearts and flowers so far for the new manager. Now he has to keep the group together in the face of injuries, a lousy schedule and what has been an uninspiring start offensively.
Girardi built a contender out of spare parts and rookies in Florida, he has a lot more to work with this time around and should be fine. But the next two weeks will be interesting.
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on Wednesday, April 9th, 2008 at 10:31 am by Peter Abraham.
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Peter Abraham
The Yankees are at their 40 man roster limit and need to make room for Moeller if he’s called up for a DL’ed Posada.
Who goes to make room? Humberto Sanchez or Francisco Cervelli to the 60 day DL? Sean Henn DFA’d? Perhaps even Ensberg?
i agree with you pete, DL and get them healthy.
Better now than in September.
I say you DL Posada. Even if it turns out to be nothing structural, it sounds as if he has no confidence in that arm right now. Go and get it right. Bring CM up to catch.
Keep Jeter up. He’s still the team leader and he’ll be needed to deal with the Boston series, even if he can’t play. If he’s not able to go after the series, then you bring up the AG.
In a perfect world, you’d send down the extra pitcher for the AG anyway. But having a young staff doesn’t afford us that luxury right now.
Wait and see how the next two games go. If we can win, or tread water as SJ said, there’s no problem.
The name of the game is to win games, no matter who’s on the field.
It sure would have been nice to have Francisco Cervelli to bring up right now to back up Molina.
Posada should go on the DL, Jeter shouldn’t.
How about this ?….Wait until we see the MRI results….EUREKA !!!
THEN, decide what is best for the team and the involvled players’ health…
( now if I could only spell )
Matt,
I didn’t think about that. If you don’t DL Sanchez, definitely DFA Henn. (sorry, Sean).
BTW–Posada is more important than you think.
Jscape2000 from Pinstripe Alley and I stayed up late last night debating whether Jorge should get into Cooperstown; we ended up comparing him to Yogi Berra and the similarities are striking.
Check out either blog to see what we found. I’ve got to actually go to class.
so if Cervelli was never injured, we’d have never signed Moeller. Who would we be considering bringing up at this point? I thought Cervelli was slated for AA-Trenton.
I was just assuming Cervelli would have been the next to come up in a situation like this because of his inclusion on the 40 man roster.
Henn is due for a DFA very soon, but they think he’ll clear waivers.
saucy, I think you answered your own question… We signed moeller to have catching depth when Cervelli got hurt. So thereby Cervelli must have been that depth despite being slated for Trenton. Wasn’t Cervellig getting a lot of praise this spring before the injury? Maybe they expected him to fly threw AA up to Scranton…..
I don’t think they can send down duncan he will have to clear waivers.
Cervelli was not close to being major league ready.
They would not bring him up to fill in for posada.
They were always going to sing a Moeller type to the AAA roster in case Posada or Molina got hurt.
You don’t just jump prospect from AA to the majors to be a backup sitting on the bench. Cerevelli wouldn’t help the team because he’s not ready and his development would be seriously hurt because he wouldn’t be playing.
Cerevelli’s injury is very unfortunate because it’s a huge blow to his development – not because it takes away back up catcher options for the big team.
Yeh, Pete, the Yanks pitching will be tested in April. If the pitching holds, maybe we can stay around .500 until the veteran bats defrost. Won’t be easy until they return from this miserable early road trip.
thanks CB
jay,
Then DFA Ramirez. I think he’ll clear. Is that a good thing?
Nevermind I answered my own question.
ditto, thanks CB. I thought they had said signing Moeller was because of the injury, but wherever I read that must have been mistaken.
Josh,
He and Pavano are both on the 60-day DL. I think you can replace those players.
Josh, 60 Day DL. Not sure why the ** says “not on 40 man” but seems to be there for everyone on 60 day DL.
mel,
yeah I just realized Pavano had it too. Didn’t notice that before.
Jeter and his intangibles offers no help if he can’t play. DL both Jeter and Posada. Bring up Chad Moeller and Cody Ransom (please not Gonzales). Ransom played all 4 infield positions well in ST (and the outfield) and had some pop in his bat. IMHO Ransom should ha e made the team out of ST instead of Morgan Ensberg.
SoCalYankeeFan
“Anyone know why the Yankee’s 40-Man roster has Brackman listed there, but with two **’s that say he’s not on the 40 man?”
He has a major league deal so he’s definitely on the 40 man. He is on the 60 day DL at the moment however.
Josh,
LOL. Pavano’s kind of weird that way. Sometimes he shows up on your screen, sometimes he doesn’t. Kind of like in the clubhouse. VERY EASY to overlook.
Brian,
I meant that Jeter needs to lead the team in the series, especially off the field. If he & Jorge aren’t there, who’s the leader? Please don’t tell me Alex. Dude walks away during interview.
Pete
For the first time since I’ve posted here I have nothing to add to something you’ve written.
(From my perspective) good job out outlining the entire situation and laying it out in realistic, and not dire, terms.
Wait, watch, and enjoy. There are many pebbles in the road to the World Series. Compared to some this team has endured, this is extremely doable.
A marathon and not a sprint.
Never have I been so proud of the Yankee spirit than when Jeter went down with his devastating injury after the collision in Toronto, and our Yankees went on without missing a beat. Our guys are professional and they’re damned good. We’ll be fine.
I guess the the two asterisk’s are just there to show he’s hurt and not “on” the 40-Man, but he’s still “there”, just replaced by a non hurt player. Kind of a dumb way to indicate it in my opinion, but whatever.
I don’t think I’m alone here… (understatement of the century) but am I the only one disgusted every time I’m reminded that Pavano is even still on the team?
60 day DL guys do not count against the 40 man. That’s why I figure Sanchez gets moved over.
Duncan has options left, so he would not have to clear waivers if they demote him, but I don’t see them doing that.
I’m not ready to give up on Ramirez yet; I hope they don’t DFA him.
Stephen White may be another candidate for DFA.
Given all the minor league talent, the 40 man will be an issue all season. Guys who may be needed later in the season (Horne, Melancon, Cox) aren’t even on the 40 man now, so this issue may come up a few times over the course of the year.
mel, Girardi.
Plus, I think we underestimate the leadership of guys like Giambi and yes, Alex.
Chris NY,
Yeah, but him clogging the roster has a silver lining. We got someone to take Andy Phillips. Oh, stop it guys, I’m just kidding.
and I say Girardi meaning he’s still the first guy that should be leading and guiding the team. Jeter’s leadership is important on the field, but if he’s just sitting in the dugout next to the manager……………
For those wondering about the 60-day DL, players on the 60-day DL are not on the 40-man roster, but are still under contract to the team.
mel,
That’s funny about Pavano. There would be one more person on the 40 man if he had agreed to be let go and re-signed to that minor league deal. I guess maybe now that could hurt the Yankees.
” I the only one disgusted every time I’m reminded that Pavano is even still on the team?”
Hmmm… name sounds familiar… can’t say I ever heard of him…
I have NO idea where that black line came from. Sorry.
Pitching matchups per espn.com:
Wed, Apr 9 @ Kansas City Kennedy (0-1) Greinke (1-0)
Thu, Apr 10 @ Kansas City 8:10 PM Pettitte (0-1) Bale (0-1)
Fri, Apr 11 @ Boston 7:05 PM Wang (2-0) Buchholz (0-1)
Sat, Apr 12 @ Boston 3:55 PM FOX Mussina (1-1) Beckett (0-1)
Sun, Apr 13 @ Boston 8:05 PM Hughes (0-1) Matsuzaka (2-0)
Mon, Apr 14 @ Tampa Bay 7:10 PM Kennedy (0-1) Sonnanstine (1-0)
Tue, Apr 15 @ Tampa Bay 7:10 PM Pettitte (0-1) Jackson (1-0)
the guy is just as useless and selfish as they come. I’m sure someone reading this blog will see Pavano in a bar somewhere. Please make sure to spit in his face on behalf of all of America.
john l, i think that has something to do with the edit button that doesn’t work on Internet Explorer… we don’t see it in your post. I think you only see it in your own.
john l,
Black line? What black line? You must be imagining things. lol.
Pete put in an editing feature that doesn’t work in IE yet. It shows up as a black bar, and you can only see it in your posts. It’ll disappear after 15 minutes.
i think they should just put Jorge on the DL. Molina would be fine as the Catcher for a while and if they desperately need a backup for him they’ve got a few catchers they can call up. I think they’ll be okay for a few days playing Betemit at SS, i don’t think Jeter will be out very long beyond this series.
Side note: On the AOL News homepage they had a story about Bill Buckner’s return to Fenway, and along with it they had a list of some bigtime sports goats in history. Buckner’s “behind the bag” play, Chris Webber’s time out in the 93 NCAA championship, Steve Bartman reaching for the playable foul ball in 03, you know real obvious ones. Then it goes on to include Alex Rodriguez’s slapping of Bronson Arroyo’s glove in the 04 ALCS….really AOL? That was hardly a pivotal play in that series and A-Rod is by no means the goat in that series. if any one player was to blame for losing that series it was Mo. it seemed like it was just a blatant jab at A-rod to me. your thoughts?
too bad it’s not Buchholz vs Hughes
on a different note…anyone concerned with Hughes velocity…kids fastball sits at 88-90…whatever happened yto the 92-94 mph he was supposed to throw? Maybe Girardi should keep him away from Mussina.
Trish, to be clear, I think you are awesome and as a fellow Yankees fan, I reserve my right to only occasionally disagree with you ( as in on Hawkins )….As a lifelong Yankees and Cubs fan, I can tell you that I don’t have a crystal ball, nor do I claim to have better baseball sense than the big wigs for the NYY, but I DO know that after watching many players over 35 years come and go,..I’ll be shocked if I am wrong about Mr. Hawkins. I’ll root for him to do well, as I do for ALL YANKEES while they play for OUR team, but I’ll expect JUST THIS ONE….” Ok, Vito, you were right” out of you by the end of the year….DEAL ?
The Yankees must be getting enough in insurance money to not release Pavano, though there’s little hope to think he’ll be anything more than dead weight even if he somehow managed to pitch again this year.
brian pa, any time a sports outlet can get a rod or the yankees into a story, it gets more hits/sells more issues. that’s where a lot of the yankees under a microscope thing comes from. like right now, the thing is to question phil hughes’ velocity. that brings hits. just part of being in the empire, i guess.
Brian, I don’t follow college basketball as much as I’d like to, but I did enjoy the Fab Five and that Webber play was devastating at the time…
A-Rod’s attempt to make something happen (pathetic as it may be) did nothing but have him called out, which he would have been anyway. Not sure what troll at AOL thought that made an such an impact on that game let alone series to put him in the category with Buckner’s play, but maybe they’re just referring to the bad press that came from it. But either way, Buckner was shunned from that town for YEARS and cried as he talked about “forgiving” the press and the fans, the town, etc… guy was made an outcast beyond belief.
A-Rod made some bad headlines for a few weeks then it was over.
Sure, AOL, same thing…….
Chris NY,
Yeah, but it’ll be good to see how our non-ace stacks up to their front of the rotation prospect.
Brian,
Sidenote. A couple of days after his retirement, Webber did an interview with Dan Patrick. Very humble person. He realizes that will always be seen as his defining moment. Then he went on to say something like he went on to play 15 years in the NBA. Really put things into perspective.
I can’t believe for a second that the Yanks would DL Posada and not bring up a catcher. I know it’s been mentioned a few times they would DL him and bring up Gonzales while evaluating Jeter, but having no legit backup catcher?
I can’t see Girardi ever endorsing that plan.
The emergency catcher isn’t really a catcher. It’s like putting an OF’er in to pitch.
Hugh, I didn’t see anything on Hughes’ velocity yesterday, but he was 92-94 his first game.
Like SJ44 said in another thread, his velocity is fine. And if you watched the first game he threw, his fastball and curve were both working very well.
Wow. I was hoping so much that this April would be different than the past years.
Well looks to be the same… WOW.
Mel, don’t get me wrong, I’d love almost as much to watch Wang remind people that he’s still young too and get him some credit. But the “our young ace is better than yours” matchup would be cool to see.
BTW, ladies on here… isn’t Buchholz a little dork? I mean, superstar athlete or not, is the guy attractive? He looks like a nerd to me, but he apparently dates models and penthouse pets……….
I don’t know when Pags’ article came up, but I posted a comment from Neyer’s chat in yesterday’s thread.
I’m not an expert, but I’d think that any troubles Hughes is going through is confidence. We’ve seen the lack of confidence in the legs after recovering from injury. You might be seeing lack of confidence because of tired arm. Or stupid umps. But if the umps aren’t giving you the corners, then you need to be more assertive, not more artistic.
He & Eiland will figure it out. Hoping to see the Hughes we saw early in ST in Boston.
I was always a Chris Webber fan. Even became somewhat of a Kings fan for a while. Watching him and Bibby ALMOST do great things together was cool. But he lacked that “IT factor” people talk about. I remember watching the Kings in the playoffs one year and wondering, WHY does Webber seem like he DOES NOT want the ball at the end of the game. Bibby wanted it, and took it. Webber passed as often as he could. Great guy from what I can tell and great player, but maybe that time-out did something to him as a player too, not just his reputation.
Chris NY,
Yes! I think I called him a cartoon duck.
And we want a little meat please. And some character.
And his girlfriend’s not that great looking.
But, he’s a little better looking than Paps.
Chris, Clay Buckholz is really ugly. A skinny little twerp who just happens to be good at pitching.
Hughes had a fantastic first game. Yesterday was cold and damp and the umpire was HORRIBLE. The only thing he was consistent about was being inconsistent. Both pitchers struggled in bad weather with a bad ump. Hitters and pitchers on both sides were not happy with the ump. It’s not like he was consistently calling certain balls strikes, he was all over the place.
Let’s let Hughes throw another game before we worry about him. I didn’t think he had confidence problems at all. If you watched the game, you heard David Cone commending him for keeping his composure and sticking to his game plan despite not commanding his curve and despite the bad umpire. The kid kept it together, just didn’t have his best stuff. Probably because of the weather more than anything. He’s fine.
know what is pretty funny. nothing we think matters! why are we stressing who is and isn’t going on the DL? It isn’t our decision! Girardi and Cash get paid a lot of money to make that decision. Whoever goes out there to play has to get the job done, not matter what. Have faith people! The right decisions will be made, the Yankees offense will come around, and the Baltimore Orioles will not have the best record in baseball come the All-star break!
lol, thanks Mel. I haven’t seen any pictures of who he dates, just remember reading something about him bouncing from model to model. I’m thinking, ok, Jeter’s a good looking dude and a superstar on the biggest stage, makes sense that he works his way through the A-List…. but this Buchholz clown looks more like the A/V guy you made fun of in High School than an up and coming star pitcher.
no offense to any A/V guys on here……….
Charleston is whoopin’ Mets(A)
Jesus had a monster double, Carmen ripped a single, Laird ripped a single, Almonte had a 2 run single, Jonathon Niese wishing he was in ST right now.
“Yesterday was cold and damp and the umpire was HORRIBLE.”
didn’t read the game thread yesterday, but it’s good to see i’m not imagining things. My TV must have thought I was mad at it the way i was yelling in it’s direction yesterday…
Chris-Buchholz is totally fugly looking
Nothing wrong with Hughes’ velocity and there is nothing wrong with Hughes.
He threw great against the Jays and a combination of a bad HP umpire and awful weather hurt him yesterday.
Don’t look at the radar gun. Look at the swings of the hitters.
They will tell you all you need to know about his, or any pitchers, stuff.
They didn’t have great swings against him yesterday.
I agree with Pete. DL both guys, get them to FL, and get them back to 100%.
Their season isn’t going down the drain in April. If you push injured guys, and they end up missing significant time, that’s when you put your season in peril.
Two simple solutuions. Gonzalez at short, Molina behind the plate (which will help the pitching staff) and you are good to go.
I’m just keeping my fingers crossed that Posada isn’t suffering anything worse that a dead-arm or mild tendonitis.
I remember when Dan Marino, during his last season, started suffering weakness in his arm from pinched nerves and degenerative muscle tensility. It ended his career.
But if Jorge can still hit, it wouldn’t be the worst outcome to move him to 1B next year.
SJ, I’m a huge Hughes fan and I think he’s going to prove to be our best pitcher before the year is over, maybe sooner than a lot of people think…. Would be curious to hear your thoughts on that?
mel-Jeter is not a vocal leader. He does it on the field. So if he cant play(Torre has stated before that he’s a pain to be around when sitting)for awhile dl him.
One other solution that hasnt been brought up. If Duncan has an option left. Why not send him down, use Posadas bat at dh till his arm gets better.
Oh one more thing. Fire the strength and conditioning coach!!
Sos, doesn’t sound like just not throwing is going to be enough to get Posada’s shoulder right. I agree with others that say let him get healthy now before it’s too deep into the season.
Hughes showed me more yesterday than in any of his previous starts.
I say that because it would have been real easy to lose it yesterday.
Mark Wegner (the HP umpire) was awful yesterday. Beyond, “just a bad day”, he was awful.
He hosed both pitchers badly but, really killed Hughes on a couple of pitches that determined his fate. Especially, the called strike 3 that was called a ball to Pena in the second inning. That added 25 pitches to his pitch count.
His defense also betrayed him yesterday. Yet, he kept grinding.
While it may not have worked out yesterday, that attitude will win out more often than not.
Bottom line is, they still only gave up 5 runs. Once the offense gets going, they win yesterday’s game.
I don’t think Hughes will be as good as Joba. Joba is a once in a generation arm.
I do however think Hughes will be a very, very good starting pitcher. He is STILL the youngest starting pitcher in baseball.
Folks have to remember that when dissecting/trashing his game.
It takes time to develop. We have to be patient and allow that time to occur.
What’s the strength and conditioning coach have to do with the injuries?
When you play in winter-like conditions, these are the injuries that occur.
If baseball was meant to be a winter sport, they would play it in the winter.
Its not always a coach or manager’s fault when injuries occur.
In this case, every one of these injuries are weather, not conditioning, related.
DL Posada for sure. I’m on the fence with DLing Jeter. If he truly believes he can rest it, give him a few days. If he doesn’t play the next two games, could be DL him retroactively if needed?
I’d bring up Moeller as insurance (on Cervelli, just because we like to write about a guy, it doesn’t mean he’s ready.) As for the other move, I would consider DFAing Henn or Edwar. On Edwar, he just doesn’t have a good second pitch to fool people with the change.
I’d definitely bring up Gonzalez to play short, unless you’ve been comfortable with the defensive play of this team thus far.
How about we give Hughes a couple of YEARS, rather than starts, before judging? He’ll be fine. He’s 21. Many, many superstar pitchers have taken their lumps before him and been just fine.
sj,
A.I was kidding. I was just remembering what happened last year. With all the April injuries and all. When they fired to s & c coach it all went away. B. As far as all of them coming in bad conditions. If im not mistaken Giambi’s injury happened in decent conditions. But its neither here not their. Next time i’ll have just put lol behind it.
Apologies to all for the black bar reappearing on my posts. I know I saw something about it somewhere on the blog, but can’t seem to find where it was said.
All,
For your reading pleasure while things get sorted out, from “Bugs & Cranks,” John Sickels assessment of the Yankee Farm System, why Hughes may not be hitting the FB speeds people buzzed about, and insights as to who is ready to step up and in.
http://www.bugsandcranks.com/new-york-yankees/expert-analysis-of-the-yankee-farm-system/
I agree with SJ about Hughes.
I’m more confident now than I was last year about his ability to be a true front line starter.
The way he worked over the off season – while his name was being thrown around all winter in the most serious trade talks possible – tells you a lot.
The way he came prepared for Spring Training ditto.
They way he pitched against the jays shows you how good he is and can be. He shut down a very good team while the opposing pitcher was shutting down his line up. That’s unbelievably impressive for a 21 year old.
And one of the things that makes a great pitcher great is the ability to gut out games when he does not have his best stuff.
This is one of the most important marker for what distinguishes a good pitcher from a great one.
We saw a glimmer of that kind of resourcefulness from Hughes yesterday. You combine that with his physical talent and that’s a special young arm.
SJ44, what’s all this talk about Hughes’ velocity flagging? Is there any validity to it? The Stadium gun wasn’t working most of the game last week when I saw him pitch and I was at work yesterday.
I’ve seen two reports now from self-proclaimed scouts amd minor league experts– John Sickels and Mike Pagliarulo’s agency– commenting about it. (Sickels goes so far as to withdraw his earlier projection of Hughes of as an ace and to project him, pace Keith Law, as a 2nd or 3rd starter instead.)
Both claim Hughes suffers from some mechanical flaw because the problem has endured even after he recovered from his injuries last year.
Are we to set any stock in what either of these two guys have to say?
You’re the boards amateur scout, SJ. Any chance you can impugn these guys credentials or refute their conclusions?
CB, be my guest, as well.
That Charelston lineup is just plain sick. When Romine picks it up, they will be scoring 20 runs a game. It is really nice to see some high end position talent working their way through the system. You have a potential starting CF (although Jackson might be in the way), 2 starting catchers, professional hitters / corner infielders in Suttle and Laird.
The starting pitchers were the first wave – already in ML with more coming.
The relief pitchers are the enxt wave, probably this year (Ohlendorf, Melancon, Cox, Sanchex, Ramirez, Patterson, etc).
The positional prosects are one to two years away (Miranda, Tabata, Jackson, Garnder, Curtis, all of Charleston, Deleon, Pirela etc).
I fully believe this is a pseudo transition year for the Yankees. If the the Big 3 or whatever they are now called develop, if the relievers start infiltrating the team, if the position players then are integrated the Yankees will be very, very good for a very, very long time. We cannot get on the Yankees and Cashman everytime the Yankees lose one game. Tis is a long term plan, and for it to succeed you have to give the kids a break. They will have spectacular games and not so good games. As has been said, with absolutely everythin against him, Hughes only gives up 3 runs, and the Ohlendorf takes one for the team by going three innings and keeping them in it.
The future is bright, the immediate present a little volatile.
Don’t forget Christian Garcia.
Yes KS – and Brackman and Horne and far more. I guess that is the point, when was the last time you could not even list all of the potential minor leaguers that would not just be pieces of the big league club but might also become superstars.
In a year or two with another couple of drafts and international signing periods, the Yankees will have Tampa’s farm system with the Yankees pocketbook an amazingly scary proposition for the rest of the league.
Boston went through the same pseudo-transition before winning again last year. They are about a year or two ahead of the Yankees in focusing on the draft and player development.
good summary Jason, the relief pitchers are what people will keep an eye on this year, and OF prospect Brett Gardner is definitely ahead of his ETA so are Tabata and Jackson.
anyone interested Jairo Heredia had 6 K’s today in 5 IP, he struggled and fought through today.
“Don’t forget Christian Garcia.”
love this kid, hopefully he doesn’t get hurt this year.
just noticed this Charleston has 7 players batting .300 or more in the starting lineup, 5 out of the 7 players are batting over .330
I have even seen rumors on other posts that the Yankees are trying to get Tabata up by the end of the year.
Within a year, I think the Yankees will have internal options for virtually short term injury sustained by a regular.
Cashman must be gaining confidence by the moment, as he will no longer have to go into a free agent signing period, or go into the trade market in desperation. He will not have to mortgage the farm because there is no other choice. For a change, he will be in the driver’s seat in many negotiations. Beane and Co. will have to realize that the Yankees will not give up Hughes, Joba and Melky for Harden (who already is hurt and missed a start) as a desperate grasp at a lifeline.
You have a blend of veterans, youth, farm system, very selected free agents and trades, and lots and lots of money. Options are the keys to any successful enterprise and the Yankees sure seem to be moving in that direction.
Christian Garcia is hurt again. Until he can stay healthy, he seems headed to being a Rule 5 guy after this season.
I’m not a pitching coach but I don’t see the issue with Hughes.
I know Pags wrote something in his blog the other day that sent everyone a flutter.
However, the fact is there hasn’t been 3 squared up swings on him this season.
I don’t care if his fastball is 65 or 95, how hitters react to pitchers pitches determines effectiveness. Not the radar gun. I wish more folks could grasp that concept
All you need to do is see Kyle Farnsworth as verification of that fact that radar gun readings don’t tell the entire story of a pitcher.
There is too much over-analysis on Hughes from EVERYBODY.
You have two types of folks discussing Hughes.
Those who want to see him fail. This way, they can say, “We should have traded him for Santana”, and those who want to see him succeed because he is a good kid and we are Yankee fans.
Me? Last year, I thought he was more hype than substance. I saw a soft kid who was babied too much in the farm system. He really didn’t let it loose until the ALDS. That impressed me.
What has impressed me more since then has been his work ethic and his fight. Its rare you see that in 21 year old pitchers.
That’s why I have no problem being patient with his development because there is something special there. We just have to give it time to come out.
KS,
I’ve posted about his a couple of times in different threads so here are some of my thoughts…
Anytime I look at the quality of a pitcher’s pitches one of the main things I look at his how the hitter’s are reacting to his pitches.
Forget the radar gun. Look at how hitter’s are reacting to Phil’s fastball. That tells the story of whether or not its a quality pitch.
Are hitters squaring it up? Are they taking good swings against it? Are they driving the ball? What kind of contact are they making.
No. Hitter’s are consistently late and often look over matched against Hughes fastball. The only exception was when he was hurt and coming back last year.
Now compare that to how hitters are able to square up one of Kyle’s 98mph offerings?
It’s almost as if people would prefer Hughes to be more like Farnsworth just to placate their anxiety about whether or not phil will be an “Ace.â€
This year Justin Verlander is trying to throw his fastball at a slower speed because he’s hoping to pick up movement.
Phil intentionally trades off velocity for movement. He’s talked about this on many occasions.
People are so unbelievably fixated on it because they are still trying to project what kind of pitcher phil will be.
The notion is that unless he’s throwing at least 93-95 he’s not going to be an “Ace.â€
It’s just nonsense. Again, just look at how hitters are reacting to his fastball when he’s on.
And he’s doing this with two pitches. When he develops his change more the fastball will only look better.
This whole issue of Phil and his velocity/ mechanics really started last year after some guy named Carlos Gomez did a “scouting” analysis on the hardball times about phil’s mechanics and how he’d changed them.
Literally after that article came out it spread all over the internet like wild fire. That’s just the way things happen on the internet.
Sickles and Pags are picking up on that. Pags just has an ax to grind with the yanks.
Sickles doesn’t actually look at players. He looks at numbers – that’s his thing.
But here’s my take on this – the yankees are a $1 billion dollar entity that has resources we (and Sickles and Pags) can only dream of.
In particular, they have Nardi Contreras, Dave Eiland and Gil Patterson (until he left to become minor league director of pitching for the A’s) overseeing Hughes development.
They know him better than anyone. And the idea that some random guys on the internet are seeing serious flaws in Hughes mechanics based on centerfield camera shots of a few games that Contreras and Eiland aren’t seeing does not seem even remotely possible to me.
In fact I think it’s kine of ludicrous but once one of these themes gathers momentum on the internet that’s it.
I would only be concerned about his velocity if it suggested an arm injury.
In no way is that the case right now. It’s early he’s still building arm strength like all pitchers are.
In the end I think phil is going to sit at 91-93. And he’s going to excel at that velocity.
The more I he pitches the more confident he makes me. I don’t worry about this issue of velocity. It’s a non-starter.
Brandon – Yeah maybe we switch the Yankee lineup with the Charleston lineup. Don’t forget a few over .400. It is early and I am sure these averages will come down to earth, but the early returns are fantastic, Montero hitting the longest home run the announcer ever saw, Suttle picking up the swing changes, Almonte hitting well all the way down the line. Jackson and Tabata had a couple of hits yesterday so hopefully that will get them going.
Sorry if it’s been discussed before, but good on the Red Sox for bringing Bill Buckner to throw out the first pitch of their home opener the other day. It’s a touching tribute.
The Boston fans don’t often get things right in my book, but this was class. There’s a video of the event on YouTube.
SJ – I saw somewhere that Garcia had a minor shoulder issue at the end of the last start and was pulled more as a precaution.
Do you have an update on his status? When is he scheduled to pitch again?
Jason I heard the rumors I doubt it happens, I mean if Tabata debuts this year that would be incredible, but I don’t see it yet.
SJ the Yankees are not risking Christian Garcia’s arm going to rule 5, he most likely won’t see Rule 5 because of his ceiling and guys in the system believe he will return to that unless you heard something I haven’t.
On Pinstripes Plus Nardi says that they use Christian Garcia’s deliver as the model to teach other players. He absolutely has the tools to be in the Joba category, but he absolutely needs to stay healthy to stay out of the Harden/Burnett category.
Any news on the current shoulder issue?
Brandon – I agree with you on Tabata. Perhaps just a Sept. call-up to get a taste of what is to come.
that I could see a bit Jason but I wouldn’t over state it.
Tabata won’t be ready this year and won’t be recalled in September.
Garcia? If he can’t pitch, the Yankees won’t continue to hold onto him.
They will have enough issues re: the 40 man roster after this season.
Unless Garcia shows more than just his ability to rehab, there are too many arms in the system ahead of him to justify hold onto him.
I hope he pitches. He has a lot of potential.
But, as the old saying goes, “90% of work is just showing up”.
He has yet to “show up” in a meaningful way. That has to change this season.
jeez. you know how on like dayquil it says don’t take more than the recommended dosage? well, i took a dose and there was only a little bit left, not enough for another dose later so i just finished it off. now i’m in a special place.
Believe me I am not holding my breath at all for Tabata. A solid season at AA, with no ill effects from the Hamate is all I want. Maybe some AAA in the summer.
I realize about Garcia, but again does anyone know what his current injury is? Is it something more than being overly cautious early in the spring while recovering from major surgery?
SJ IDK I think your really sour on Christian Garcia
I mean lets be honest he might the one SP prospect who can be better than Philip Hughes if healthy. The kid has drawn comparisons to AJ Burnett the unfortunate thing is he’s being compared to Burnett health wise too. I definitely don’t see him going Rule 5
Bradon – Harden and Prior are probably good comps too, for the upside / injury risk. Garcia might have 3 ++ pitches an can throw hard. I have seen he can approach Joba-like potential. Please let him be healthy. However, if not then we have Brackman to think about by next year.
Agree about DL’ing Jeter and Posada. It’s April still, better off taking the time to heal properly now rather than deal with a nagging injury for the rest of the season (while opponents would be testing Posada’s arm nostop)
Bring up Gonzalez and Moeller and trust the rest of the team to start hitting. They’re too good not to.
Brian, lol, find a comfy seat and enjoy the ride. No driving please….
“now i’m in a special place” too funny.
Speaking of Burnett how was his second start of the season. all of you have to have some patience. I’ll take these kids over anyone else’s staff in the Al.
Everyone always compares prospects to guys at the ML level.
That doesn’t mean much.
Garcia has been in the organization for 4 years and has yet to pitch above A ball.
“Potential” is a dangerous word. It means, while you have talent, you haven’t done anything yet.
Sean Henn has had “potential” for years. How has that turned out?
All I am saying is, Garcia has to pitch this year. If he can’t, for whatever reason, its going to be a challenge for the Yankees to hold onto him. If they even want to at this point.
Thanks for assuaging some of my concerns about Hughes.
BTW, I wanted the Yankees to trade Hughes for Santana and think they erred in not doing so. However, since they didn’t, I certainly want Hughes to thrive. In fact, even had they traded Hughes, I would have cheered for him regardless. (How could I not like and admire a 21-yr-old who comports himself with more maturity and humility than I do at 33?)
In fact, unless ex-Yankees go to the Red Sox or other AL East rival, or they malign Joe Torre as a racist, I tend to harbor a soft spot for them anyway. To be honest, I can’t even summon genuine animosity for Sheffield, if I don’t necessarily root for him anymore.
BTW, I had an 15-minute long conversation with Joe Mcillvaine at Dolphins Stadium during the Marlins-Yankees series last month. McIllvaine, the former Mets GM, is now a scout for the Twins, so I started to question him about the Santana trade.
Naturally, he couldn’t criticize Smith GM but when I asked him why the Twins didn’t accept the Hughes, Cabrera, Marquez, Hiligoss offer, he kept invoking poker analogies. Which I interpreted as what we all now know– Smith was pitting the Red Sox against the Yankees in the hope the Yankees would offer both Hughes and Kennedy.
He also said by the time January arrived, the Mets offer was the best one available because both the Yankees and Red Sox scaled back theirs considerably. Neither ever withdrew their offers. They just whittled them down as time went on.
Incidentally, McIllvaine think Delois Guerra is the best player the Twins acquired in the deal. McIllvaine also think Cody Rasmus will be the Cardinals starting CF by the All-Star break and will bloom into a legitimate star.
Jason last I heard about Garcia is he went 1 IP vs the Riverdogs big 3 and made them look silly. A couple of days later he had a bit of a sore shoulder and they DL’d him for precautionary reasons.
Jesus went yard again
I never said Hughes was bad yesterday….I was just questioning his velocity and since he pitched yesterday its fresh in my mind…I dont think I have ever seen him hit 94 mph in the major leagues, thats all. In the playoffs last season he was 91-92, and I dont recall him throwing in the mid 90’s in any outing.
My $.02 prediction. Montero ends the year in AA.
He is too good to stay in the SAL for the season. He will ultimately get called up to Tampa in the FSL. I think by June.
If he hits there, he will end up in AA before the end of the year, IMO.
He can DH if his catching skills aren’t AA ready.
The kid is too good a hitter to keep down for long. He’s a Miguel Cabrera-like prodigy as a hitter.
If you recall Cabrera’s first year in the majors in 2003, they played him at third, left and right field. The Marlins felt they had to have his bat in the lineup.
I could see Montero eventually moving to first because of his size.
His bat, however, is quickly becoming something to behold from a talent perspective.
The kid can flat out rake.
If you hit like he can, you can advance quickly through the system.
I thought he hit 94 once or twice in his first game this year… at least once I know I saw either 93 or 94… but I’d agree with SJ and CB, whatever speed he was throwing, they weren’t getting good swings on him.
Obviously meaningless speculation, but does Jesus have defensive ability enough to think he would make a good or very good 1B, or would he be just serviceable there and worth it for his bat?
He was throwing 93-94 during his no hitter against Texas and during his start in the ALDS. He hit 94 several times in his first start against the Jays this season.
He isn’t a steady 95 MPH guy and wasn’t in the minor leagues.
Which is why I am stumped as to why his velocity is suddenly an issue.
SJ Jesus said he wants to be a catcher, Jorge Posada helped him realize how good he can be.
Krum just ripped a single up the middle !
Abe is going after his 5th hit today
Chris,
Don’t know re: Montero’s defensive skills at first. Far as I know, he has never been tried at first.
His catching skills? Ok, not great. From a pure catching perspective, Austin Romine is a much better catching prospect.
However, IMO, Montero is the best hitter in the Yankee farm system. He’s that good.
The fact that is he only 18(as far as we know) and he is this good a hitter? Scary.
Like all great hitters, such as Arod and Vlad for example, the ball sounds different when it comes off his bat.
He is an amazing guy to watch hit a baseball at such a young age.
Brandon,
He may want to be a catcher today. However, if he sees his fastest path to the majors is as a first baseman, guess what?
He will want to be a first baseman! lol
For a kid with his talent, the question may soon be, “what is the fastest way to get him to the big leagues”.
He’s that special a talent with a bat in his hands.
dammit Ab pops out
he has to settle for 4 for 5 day w/ 3 RBIs batting .414
Snyder double 3 consecutive ABs for Snyder w/ a base hit
So, maybe this kid will answer our 1B dilemma sooner than he would take over for Jorge… Let’s hope he can make that transition. I’d rather a good catcher replace Posada whenever that time comes. We need solid defense and game calling back there.
sj, I not saying youre wrong, but honestly, I dont recall him ever hitting 94 in his no hit bid in Texas, I recall him sitting at 91 the whole night…coming up, he was said to have a mid nineties fast ball that topped off at 96 and genreally sat at 92-94…I have yet to see him do that. Im not saying theres anything wrong with him, I think he’s going to be great either way.
SJ,
You’re usually cautious about prospects so it’s both surprising and good to see you that high on Montero.
I was personally thinking he’d end the year in Tampa. It’s early but it looks like he is just going to be too good for low A. I also think he has a good chance to be a top 30 prospect by the end of the year (second best catcher after Weiters).
After Eric Duncan however I always got the sense the organization was being particularly cautious about advancing kids.
I agree with your Cabrera comp. Some guys are just natural hitters – they just have an acumen to do it that can’t be taught.
I think Montero is that kind of player – just a natural hitter, someone born to do it.
It’s remarkable how good he is. That combination of power hitting ability with plate discipline at that age is just remarkable. The thing that makes him special is that he’s just not a guy who goes up there and hacks away. He has a plan, he hits breaking pitches, and has good zone judgement.
That charleston team is just unbelievable. Montero, Suttle, Laird, and Synder are all going to prove to be too good for that level before too long.
Can you imagine the T-Shirts that will be sold when “Jesus” hits the majors??
CB,
First time I saw the kid hit, I was blown away.
I saw Vlad Guerrero, Arod and Miguel Cabrera when they were 17 years old. The kid is in that company, at a similar stage developmentally, with a bat in his hands.
IMO, he will be the prospect on every Yankee fans lips after this season.
He’s that good.
Cabrera was drafted as a SS. Yet, by the time he was in the minors for a month, the Marlins realized two things:
1. He won’t be a SS.
2. He will be in the majors quickly. He’s too good to keep down.
I have the same feeling about Montero.
He won’t be a catcher in the majors and he is coming quickly.
He is a special, special talent with a bat in his hands.
I don’t go ga ga over too many prospects. However, Montero is what Joba was to me last year. A couple of looks at him and you see, barring injury, he’s not long for the minor leagues.
I’ll go one better. If he stays healthy and has no off the field issues, he will make the Yankees sooner than Jackson or Tabata.
Not a knock to Jackson or Tabata. Just a testament to how good Montero is right now.
Here’s the thing about Montero.
He won’t be 19 until November 28.
He will have two full minor league seasons in the can before he turns 19. Well, 1 1/2 because the GCL is a half season league.
If he finishes the year DH’ing in Trenton, or even in Tampa (probably a given at this point), he could be on track for a September callup NEXT YEAR.
Assuming of course, he continues to dominate with the bat.
As CB said, the amazing thing about the kid is, he isn’t a free swinger. He’s got a nice, tight swing and isn’t an all or nothing type of guy.
He can hit the breaking ball (amazing for a kid that age) and there aren’t a lot of fastballs that get by him.
In an intersquad game last year, I saw him turn on a 94 MPH fastball from Jairo Heredia and hit it off the light tower in left in George Steinbrenner Field. It was a moon shot that everybody just stopped for a second to admire.
The kid acted like Derek Jeter. Acted as if it was no big deal.
He really is a special talent.
I just hope he doesn’t get blinded by the “fame light” because I have a feeling he may be the talk of Minor League Baseball this summer.
Jesus crushed the ball today and picked his spots well that kid is not staying in single A and Abraham Almonte won the MVP of the game today Torre Tyson called him his best clutch hitter
CF Almonte 4 for 5 w/ 3 RBIs, 2 OF assists, 1 SB batting .400 the kid is only 19 yrs. old
When guys are in the Miggy/ Vlad class they come fast – there’s no doubt.
Coming into this year I thought there was a good chance Montero would be the organization’s best prospect by the end of the season – better than Jackson or Tabata.
And I know what you’re saying about some guys bats forces the position.
The Rays probably wasted two years of BJ Upton’s career futzing with his position. Arizona on the other hand made the call on Justin quickly – the bat was spectacular and he needs to move off shortstop to accommodate it. Matt LaPorta is doing that know with the Brewers.
My concern is this – and this just may be my bias – but I don’t look at guys bats in an absolute sense. I think the context of the position means a lot. You create dominant teams by having guys at as many positions as possible who are heads and shoulders better than the other guys you could fill in at that spot.
Say with ARod and Pujols – it’s very close between them at the plate. Pujols is a better defensive first baseman than ARod is a defensive third baseman.
Now you can’t go wrong with either. But if I have my choice I’d take ARod every time just because it’s so much harder to find a decent third baseman than first.
That’s where I fell stuck about montero’s development. I know his bat is way, way more advanced than his defensive tools and that catcher is the hardest position to learn/ play.
That said – Montero sticks at catcher and the Yankee’s have a player who could be historically great. A guy who generates so much relative value compared to other catchers he could be the games most valuable player.
I just say that because I personally can’t think of catching prospect in any time in the recent past who I thought really, truly had a special bat and was a pure hitter with the power of Montero.
He hits 40 homeruns as a fist baseman that’s great. He hits 40 as a catcher and that’s other worldly. What a weapon.
I know the yankees may wind up picking one or the other. No way he learns how to catch in 2 years. I don’t know if he could do it in 3 or if he could do it at all.
But I could see the bat being ready in 2 years. That’s a major decision for the team that’s going to have a big impact on the direction of the franchise.
RE: Hughes velocity yesterday? Is it possible that because of the cold last night he just laid off it a bit? Maybe because he wants to avoid an injury such as he had last year? Just a thought.
Wow – SJ44 – when do you think the -earliest- he makes the majors is? September call up? Spring training invite in 2009 with a chance to make the club (as a starter)? Or will they keep it slow and wait for 2009 September –> 2010?
Heh, ignore that, had the post ready before you guys responded.
I’m doing some research: Miguel Cabrera was called up midseason at 20, and was immediately used full-time. ARod was wasted for a couple years. Pujols was a beginning of season, full-time starter.
Ken Griffey Jr. was a beginning of season starter at 19.
The Yanks look older and older each day.
Kj
Very insightful and deep.
Having seen Jesus Montero this year in spring training, it was his 1st at camp as an invitee and also his 1st under the drilling and tutoring of Tony Pena.
Next spring he will be a special project and it will define whether catching is in his future. The Yankees are well equipped for the future with Romine and Cervelli and depending on how the rest of this season shows for Montero, I would hold off all bets for a Mark Teixeira free agent signing so soon.
On Teixeira – let’s not forget ‘09 is the first season of the new Stadium. The Family isn’t gonna go cheap, or have a “rebuilding / reloading” year. Teixeria is gonna get a bundle, and lots of years.
But there’ll be room for the Charleston guys and the AA OF’s at the right time. These guys are all young, so 2 years of minors development won’t kill them. There’ll be positions available – the 2B and 3B are locked up for awhile, and it’s hard to imagine Jete being tossed aside. But OF and DH will be wide open – only Melky perhaps still around after ‘09.
The Yanks system in my eyes has a lot of quality – perhaps deeper in decent (not necessarily major league) talent than anybody. Other orgs might have more high ceiling or close guys, but few have the overall quality we do. That’s why our minors teams are winning so much. While it’s the high end talents that count the most, depth for trade purposes, bench material, backups is surely a good thing to have. Our low level teams (SS, GC) were better than anybody out there – hence we see Charleston dominating. Having so many good young players 2-3 years away when most majors spots are tied up until then is a good thing – no need to rush, lots to work with as they develop at their paces.
Obviously the Yankees brain trust has this worked out to a point, but of all the talent in the minors, who do we keep, and who do we package together to land major league players and/or other prospects?
We’ve got Wang, Kennedy, Hughes, Chamberlain already, and Horne (and others) possibly on the way. I like the idea of mixing up the rotation (Wang/Hughes/Kennedy/Chamberlain in some sort of staggered order, so teams we face can’t prepare for the same ‘type’ of pitcher every outing). 3B, SS, 2B are locked in for awhile. If Montero can learn to catch, we’ve got our C replacement. OF COULD be AJ, Melky, and Tabata (if AJ and Tabata develop and Melky fills out – he’ll be relegated to 4th OF or dealt if he doesn’t develop power by 26-27 probably). A LOT of bullpen prospects. so…. at what position do we need to impove the most?
(this assumes that all prospects pan out (big assumption)).
Brendan wrote: “now i’m in a special place.”
That’s how Joba feels every day, kiddo.