Today in The Journal News
-
- April
- 15
The Yankees warmed up and their offense followed suit as they beat the Rays last night.
Joba Chamberlain returned home to be with his ailing father. This notebook also has updates on Jorge Posada, some roster moves, a tribute to a legend and a first pitch from out of this world.
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on Tuesday, April 15th, 2008 at 3:37 am by Peter Abraham.
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Peter Abraham
Don’t hamstring injuries usually have players out for more than a few days?
Check this out!
http://notjustgoodatmath.blogspot.com/2008/04/chien-ming-wang-charity.html
The Daily News’ Filip Bondy whines about the cost of digging up the Ortiz shirt, and corporate park-grabbing by the rich, privileged, anti-green space Yankees.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/04/14/2008-04-14_david_ortiz_uniform_fiasco_rocks_yankees.html
Apparently, in Bondy-world, the Yankees are just another greedy corporation that oppressors the poor and steals things belonging to the public, like park land. Bondy needs a beating, er, a history lesson.
On February 6, 1921, the Yankees issued a press release to announce the purchase of 10 acres of property in the west Bronx. The land was purchased from the estate of William Waldorf Astor for $675,000. (see: Yankee website, Yankee Stadium History). And by the the way, the original Yankee Stadium site was not public park land.
In 1921, if the old pictures are any guide, the area now known as Yankee Stadium was a pretty barren (and largely non-taxpaying) place. The lot sat near the elevated subway, begging to be improved. The Yankees created construction jobs to build the place, created jobs by housing some of their corporate offices there over the years, and continue to create jobs and income for families in ways too numerous to count. Steinbrenner’s Yankees have also helped out the neighborhood innumerable times, including recently and publicly, contributing money to defray the costs of the funerals of the families killed in the tragic apartment fire near the stadium last season. I guess that doesn’t count for guys like Bondy when it comes to assessing a corporation’s value to a neighborhood.
Given NYC’s infamous failure to include parkland and preserve open space in the rest of its general planning, what makes Bondy so sure the present site of Yankee Stadium would have had any parkland to “steal”? It seems just as likely that, were there never a Yankee Stadium, there would have been a few more apartment buildings with the usual “taxpayer” storefronts; certainly the place would look nothing like what will be the result of the New Yankee Stadium. If only we could make a version of “It’s a Wonderful Life” for Bondy and his fellow “save the parkland” idiots, depicting the Bronx neighborhood where the Stadium sits, showing life as it would have been without the Stadium for the least 85 or so years.
So, Bondy, please quit whining about the Yankees’ $30K efforts to unearth the Ortiz shirt and stop complaining about the Yankees’ stealing parkland. Without the Pinstripers, and their land purchase back in 1921, you probably wouldn’t even have a job that allows you to complain from your Ivory Tower. By the way, Bondy, since you are so focused on things green, like parks, exactly how environmentally friendly is the Daily News publishing process?
Tonight we win again, have a great day, ALL !
murphydog-
notwithstanding your argument, $9.50 for a Miller Lite, in the concourse, qualifies as greed.
Pete, do you ever sleep?
Love Molina’s comment
“I think it will be only a few days,” he said. “It feels better today. My problem is I can’t run. But I don’t run that fast anyway.”
No Molina you don’t, but we love you anyhow
Bronx Betty:
True, that’s an expensive beer, but I don’t go to the Stadium for Happy Hour.
As a general rule, life experience tells you to expect premium pricing at professional sporting venues. For example, I went to the Summer Olympics in Atlanta in 1996, and it was hotter than hell even after the sun went down. Good luck finding a water fountain you would even consider putting your lips near. The Olympic entrepreneurs charged $5.00 for a small plastic bottle of water. That was 11 years ago and that was for water. Would they charge $10.00 now? And they were not paying off $200 million plus in salary.
To me, the Yankees are no more or less “greedy” when it comes to the price of food and beverages than anyone else in the entertainment and sporting business. Have you ever bought a drink at intermission at the Met? (I don’t mean Shea Stadium, I mean the opera house.) And what’s a beer at the Garden cost? As anybody knows, you actually need a few beers if you are dumb enough to go to a Knick game. At least you don’t have to anesthetize yourself to get through a Yankee game
Murphydog-
Have you ever bought a drink at intermission at the Met? (I don’t mean Shea Stadium, I mean the opera house.)
Opera? Hahahahahaha! What, was the Lincoln Center ballet sold out?? What kinda of Yankee are you?
No, I haven’t been to the opry since Minnie Pearl died
Bronx Betty:
“Opera? Hahahahahaha! What, was the Lincoln Center ballet sold out?? What kinda of Yankee are you?”
I consider myself a noble savage, thank you.
Big difference in the way pitchers are being handled this year.
There is no way Torre would have left Bruney in after the two homers he gave up.
This tactic will pay dividends as the pitchers can be aggressive knowing that they aren’t going to be pulled for one mistake.
I like it.
And though he isn’t perfect (I would have pulled Moose earlier the other day) he is going to be here for awhile so get use to it folks.
So now the Sox fans are saying putting Ortiz’s jersey in the cement jinxed him, now that it is out he is hitting better. Gotta love the spin on that.
The beer you get at the stadium are 24oz, right? So its really not just a beer; its actually two beers, so while even $5.00 a beer is still outrageous, it’s really not any worse than if you went to a bar in Manhattan and bought one.
what drives me nuts is the price to go to a devils game… no wonder why half the building was rangers fans at games 1 and 2… i would love to get tickets to a playoff game, but i’m not spending that for one hockey game. they’re out of their minds.
Let’s bury a Manny jersey where the Ortiz one was buried and test out their theory.
April is always a “feel out” month in seeing how the roster that left spring training is shaping up.
The utility roles should be a full strength when Shelley returns on Saturday. Farnsworth and Bruney are pitching themselves off the roster with hopefuls waiting at AAA. The injured are healing. The young pitchers are learning.
Overall, this team is better than the 2007 team.
I hope Joe will soon learn his lesson about Bruney as he seems to have learned with Farnsworth. Their stuff is just good enough to get your beat.
Guys like Bruney and Farnsworth will always be employed in baseball. There is always somebody out there who believes they have the “keys” to unlock greatness in them because of how hard they throw.
Yet, it never seems to happen for reasons that are clear to everyone but the “fixers”.
They don’t know how to pitch.
Its really that simple.
Last year, when both guys got in trouble, they each tried to throw the ball harder and they kept failing. This year, they are both doing the same thing again.
You don’t judge a pitcher on what he’s like when he is on. You judge him on what he does to get people out when he’s off or the game is on the line. That’s when you know if a guy can pitch or not. Especially true with guys out of the ‘pen.
Greg Maddox once said when he is struggling, he throws the ball softer, and he’s not a hard thrower. He does that because by throwing softer, you accomplish two things. One, you completely throw off a hitters timing because they are trained to be more aggressive when a pitcher is struggling. Two, it gets your mechanics back in line.
Unfortunately, that lesson has never penetrated the heads of Farnsworth and Bruney and it never will.
Relief pitching is not easy. If you have 5 outings and fail in 3 of them, unlike a hitter, that’s not a good % for a relief pitcher.
The failure rate for Bruney and Farnsworth has always hovered around 40%. Way too high to be an consistently effective relief pitcher.
Girardi has to come to grips with the fact that not everybody can be “fixed”. Guys are what they are.
Farnsworth and Bruney are two guys who don’t belong in this bullpen. Its a question now of how long Girardi and Cashman take to comprehend that and make adjustments.
Robinson Cano bailed Joe out bigtime last night. If he keeps tempting fate by putting Farnsworth and Bruney in game deciding situations, he won’t be so lucky the next time.
In 1995, the payroll was $55 million and the most expensive seat cost $25. Today, the payroll is $215 million and the most expensive seat is $225.
I don’t begrudge anyone making a profit, even a handsome one, but the ticket-payroll ratios have tilted.
testing testing
I can’t say as I agree with you on this one, SJ44. As I posted in another thread, I’m very glad that Joe is showing trust in Bruney. He’s got a clean slate with Joe …….as it should be. Brian did not pitch well against the Sox (even though that run counted against Moose, that was Brian’s run) and again last night, but we are trying to develop a pen……..not just win it all in 2008. If we were trying to win it all in 2008 without thought to development, Hughes would be in Minnesota right now. Two bad outings (one, I guess, if you don’t think Bruney should have been in last night) is way too small a sample (again, Bruney has a clean slate with Joe, as it should be) to determine that he belongs with Farns on the “no-good” list. Joe just can not hamstring his bullpen like that and I feel that showing faith in players will generally obtain positive results. If Brian really crashes and burns in subsequent relief appearances, we all know what’s going to happen.
I know you have a great deal of faith in the relievers currently at AAA, but I can hardly count on Scott Patterson. His ST was nice, but what is his track record? He doesn’t have one, only as an Indy League pitcher. I simply can not count on this guy – if he comes up, I hope he succeeds, but I don’t expect it. Let’s say Horne gets healthy and they bring him up later on..or Marquez, or Melancon. Are we expecting them to do great things? I’m not. I’m expecting them to struggle …….yes they’ll have their good days, but asking them to step into hot spots in a game and come through when they are inexperienced youngsters is asking a lot.
agreed, SJ. and like you said, there will always be a team who will take these guys on, because they are MLB arms and bullpen depth is a hot commodity in the game right now.
i was ready to throw Bruney out this offseason, but he’s pitched himself back into the picture a little bit. am i going to trust him in a pressure spot? no, but he can be a decent middle innings guy.
farnsworth is worthless to this team. he’s to the point now where his salary and contract commitments should not be a major liability to another team should they want to take a chance. you now have teams, and contenders, like the Braves, Mets, Tigers, Indians, Mariners, Brewers, DBacks, among others, who need BP help. Obviously, some teams are better trade partners than others, but if you feel like you can get a useful piece in return, you need to move him now.
That win by Boston last night shows that they’ll be very tough to beat (again) for the division. They are really mentally tough, being able to rally late on the road vs one of the best teams in the AL. Compare their clutch hitting last night to what the yankees did in that Fenway series with the games on the line (Arod’s choke AB vs Papelbon, Damon’s game-killing DP).
bob give me a break. They did it against Borowski we aren’t exactly talking Mo Rivera here.
Bob….let me guess, you are either a BoSux fan or a fair weather Yankee fan, right ? ba-bye !
The NY Post can find a Red Sox jersey buried in cement in the Bronx but they can’t find a person who can correctly identify Jose Molina (caption under photo). Guess “Jose’s” hamstring is just fine if he can jump that high.
http://www.nypost.com/seven/04152008/sports/yankees/cold_cure_from_cano_106538.htm?page=2
“notwithstanding your argument, $9.50 for a Miller Lite, in the concourse, qualifies as greed.”
Yes, beer is expensive at The Stadium but the high cost also makes some people think twice before getting wasted out of their minds. Not saying this was their intention but if beer was $3-4/drink you would have a MUCH LARGER bunch of 18-25 year old tripping over themselves, screaming obscenities, and displaying other rude and inappropriate behavior. Sounds like Fenway.
pat Jose lost 30 pound and looks 10 years younger. Didn’t you know that could happen over night?
Seriously what is wrong with the people who work for papers. Can they not tell that is the Melk man?
“I know you have a great deal of faith in the relievers currently at AAA, but I can hardly count on Scott Patterson. His ST was nice, but what is his track record? He doesn’t have one, only as an Indy League pitcher. I simply can not count on this guy – if he comes up, I hope he succeeds, but I don’t expect it. Let’s say Horne gets healthy and they bring him up later on..or Marquez, or Melancon. Are we expecting them to do great things? I’m not. I’m expecting them to struggle …….yes they’ll have their good days, but asking them to step into hot spots in a game and come through when they are inexperienced youngsters is asking a lot.”
But Bruney has already, for years, shown us that he can’t be counted on. When it gets tight, he throws harder and leaves fastballs up. Why is that something you can count on?
No one’s saying that Patterson is the answer, or Horne or whoever. We’re saying that continuing to trust Bruney/Kyle, despite being burned OVER and OVER is depriving other guys of a chance to show that maybe they can be the answer. Joba had no experience last year. Why is it so crazy to think another young starter with good stuff (Horne) could jump to a setup role late in the year?
If you look at Scott Patterson’s track record in the minors as compared with Bruney’s, Patterson’s success rate is much higher than Bruney’s. Its not even close.
Brian Bruney has NEVER had the success Scott Patterson has had in his minor league career.
Why is one guy in the majors and the other isn’t? Simple. The radar gun.
If Scott Patterson threw 95 MPH, with his success rate, he’s in the majors.
You know who has developed the best bullpen in the game for over 10 years now? Kevin Towers of the San Diego Padres.
Does it better than anybody.
Do you know the last thing he uses to evaluate a relief pitcher? The radar gun.
I’m amazed more GM’s don’t do it the way Powers does it.
Its all in what you are looking for in your bullpen. Me? I like diversity. Different arm angle guys, mix of hard throwers and funky guys, etc.
Bruney and Farnsworth are the same guy. Same style of pitching, same failure rate, same attitude.
You can give them clean slates and the results aren’t going to change. We already seen that from both guys.
The issue is no longer waiting for them to change. Its not going to happen. The issue is, how much longer so the combined 6 million dollars in salary (when we cut to the chase, its the ONLY reason both guys are still here) continue to play the role in decisionmaking that it has.
In the AL, its pretty tough to keep 2 guys in your bullpen you can’t use unless its blowout city.
That’s the Yankees dilemma right now. Its highlighted even more with Joba’s absence.
Hopefully, this experiment with these two guys end shortly. If not, Joe better hope he has more PH magic on the bench each night. He will need it.
“Yes, beer is expensive at The Stadium but the high cost also makes some people think twice before getting wasted out of their minds.”
You know what blew my mind? I went to a game in SF one time, and they were selling BOOZE. Hard liquor. At the ballpark. I mean, I have no problem with it morally or anything, it just blew my mind that they could sell hard alcohol and not worry about idiot getting smashed and fighting.
Then again, people looked at us like we were screaming curses when we called Kevin Frandsen “College Boy”. I guess it’s a different breed of fan out there.
murphydog wrote: “If only we could make a version of “It’s a Wonderful Life†for Bondy and his fellow “save the parkland†idiots, depicting the Bronx neighborhood where the Stadium sits, showing life as it would have been without the Stadium for the least 85 or so years.”
Apropos of not much, here’s an interesting take on the real significance of George Bailey’s development of public land in “It’s a Wonderful Life” with which M. Bondy would probably sympathize:
“Bailey Park has been built atop the old cemetery. Not only does George raze the trees, but he commits an act of unspeakable sacrilege. He obliterates a sacred symbol of Bedford Fall’s connection with the past, the grave markers of the town’s ancestors. George Bailey’s vision of a modern America eliminates his links with his forebears, covers up the evidence of death, supplies people instead with private retreats of secluded isolation, and all at the expense of an intimate community, in life and in death.”
http://patrickdeneen.blogspot.com/2007/12/its-destructive-life.html
Ok, so really… what’s it going to take to get rid of Betemit and keep Gonzo on the roster?
Girardi and supposedly other guys like Giambi have said Gonzalez has impressed with the bat as well as his outstanding defense. They quoted Giambi during Sunday night’s game saying they “think he’s going to be a star.”
Is Betemit’s “severe pink-eye” just a pre-amble to a trade?
TurnTwo: I agree about Devils prices. I love them but the ticket prices are crazy. What good does the Newark arena do if no one can afford to go?
and I’m by no means thinking his somewhat hot bat of late means Alberto is going to start winning batting titles. His defense alone, coupled with Betemit’s lack of value on either side of the ball, makes him worthy of that roster spot.
I think the one problem is, if you get rid of Betemit, you have no LH bat off the bench. That’s a big problem right now.
They need a LH bat off the bench.
Unless, Robbie Cano becomes that bat off the bench. lol
Seriously, I think Betemit may be safe because he is the only LH bat on the bench.
“I went to a game in SF one time, and they were selling BOOZE. Hard liquor.”
Sheesh. With the $9 beer’s at Yankee Stadium I would hate to think about how much a mixed drink would cost =/ If they sold Booze at Fenway people would be jumping off the green monster.
When you look at the roster construction of the team, there are some issues.
Gonzo looks to be a kid that has value as a backup middle infielder. But, that leaves a dilemma between Ensberg and Betemit.
Ensberg can hit and play both corner INF positions. But, he is RH. Who becomes the LH option off the bench?
They still have Shelley Duncan in Scranton and he needs to be in NY.
Their pitching staff issues are even more questionable.
No long guy. Its a waste to have Ohlendorf in that role when he can be so much more effective later in games.
Bruney and Farnsworth are still on the roster. A waste of two spots.
I don’t really know how you can sort out this stuff right now, given the health issues of some guys on the team.
I do think though the roster construction needs to be re-examined once a few guys get healthy. Doesn’t seem to fit well to me as presently constructed.
Can we teach Shelley to switch-hit?
“I know you have a great deal of faith in the relievers currently at AAA, but I can hardly count on Scott Patterson. His ST was nice, but what is his track record?”
This is what I don’t understand about Brian Bruney.
People keep talking about him having experience, about him having a track record.
Are people not looking at what that trace record is?
Bruney’s track record is not a positive. It is a massive negative. Look at what encompasses his “experience.”
Bruney has walked 7hitter/ 9 innings in the majors over 150 career innings. He’s given up 8 hits/ 9 innngs. He has a WHIP of 1.6.
To put that in perspective his career numbers are much, much worse than Kyel Farnsworth’s.
That is his track record – worse than Kyle Farnsworth. It is actually much worse. Think about that.
There’s no such thing as an athlete suddenly having a “clean slate.” His past performance is always going to be the strongest predictor of his future performance. Why are we confident that ARod will hit 40 or so home runs this year? Because he’s done it before consistently. In the same way Brian Bruney has been bad – consistently.
The amount of credit he’s gotten for throwing 9 measly innings in spring training is surprising. How do 9 spring training innings make up for 150 poor innings as a body of work? And even in those 9 spring training innings several of them came at the very end of games when he was primarily facing minor leagues only.
9 innings + 5 good innings to start the season vs. 150. What tells you more? And 150 innings is not a small sample of work for a relief pitcher – that is 2-3 years of experience for a relief pitcher.
So the value of Bruney’s track record is that it indicates that he will not be a consistently good relief pitcher.
People keep bringing up Bruney’s 9 innings in spring training. But Scott Patterson outperformed him. Patterson threw better and he came in earlier in games – with men on base and also faced more major leaguers.
The difference between them – Bruney’s experience. But that experience actually tells us something very bad about Bruney – it show he is highly unlikely to get the job done.
So instead of retreading old ground with Bruney – why not try someone new? What is the harm in that. Bruney has been used now in 2 big spots – he’s blown both. The first few times he was used this year he was brought in to start innings and there were no runners on base.
There are so many options in AAA. Why not try something new and different.
Compared to Bruney’s “experience” and track record of being bad the lack of experience of Patterson, Albaldejo, and Britton are a plus. Maybe they can be good if given a shot. Go compare Britton’s major league track record to Bruney’s – just look at what they’ve done.
Isn’t this “trust” Girardi is showing very similar to Torre showing players “loyalty?”
Isn’t using players based on experience rather than performance something we’ve seen already with Torre?
Only thing it tells us its economics driving the decision.
They have over 6 million dollars tied into guaranteed contracts of Bruney and Farnsworth.
At least at this time, it seems economics is the driving force behind the decision to keep one, or both, guys on the roster.
It certainly isn’t performance.
CB, no matter what manager you have, to start the season, i think a manager and the GM will always favor the veterans to start the season and give them a chance… so whether it was Torre or Girardi, or Mike Scoscia Jim Leyland, i think the roster would have been constructed pretty much the same to start.
I personally dont think the Yankees need to keep Betemit because he’s a LH off the bench. When you think of the lineup they’ll put out on a day to day basis against a LHP, you will inevitably leave Matsui, Damon, or Giambi on the bench in favor of Ensberg at 1B and maybe Shelley at DH (eventually). There’s your LH off the bench if you need one later in the game.
IMO, they should call up Rasner and let him be the long man. I’d move Farsnworth, and allow Ohlendorf to shift back into a role later in the game. Id keep Bruney on a little longer, but keep him on a short leash.
i would favor Alberto over Betemit as the utility IF, but i’m torn as to whether or not id rather have him continue to get regular ABs, or if he’s reached his offensive development threshold.
So, in regards to the Bruney/Farnsworth situation. Is one much/any better than the other? It is not likely that the Yankees will just unload two pitchers. Which one should they keep? If not permanently, temporarily.
At about the quarter mark of the season (late May), Cashman will re-evaluate the team’s status.
At the present time, Farnsworth and Bruney have created short leashes for themselves. They are virtually one in the same. To give the bullpen different looks, Ohlendorf and Albaladejo could be ideal with 1 of 3 possibilies lurking at AAA also in the mix.
Darrell Rasner has shown well as a starter at AAA and streching his arm in the process. The long relief role / spot starter slot could be re-visited.
If Alberto Gonzalez continues to show he belongs, the missing piece of the utility roles gets solved along with the soon returning Shelley Duncan.
“Who becomes the LH option off the bench?”
Which righty are you PHing for? Jeter? ARod? If Duncan or Ensberg is in the lineup, there’s a good lefty bat on the bench as it is, whether it’s Abreu or Giambi or Matsui or Damon. If Jorge’s sitting and Molina’s in, you’re going to put Jorge in the game anyhow if you pull Jose…so just PH jorge.
The other thing about Betemit… Left handed bat or not, does his left-handed bat mean much when he can’t hit? I know he’s supposed to be a decent hitter, but has he really done enough with the Yankees to warrant a spot?
I’ve never had pink-eye. But I’ve known people who have and I don’t remember any of them needing 15 days to recover. Isn’t it more like a couple days? We needed the spot, so it makes sense to DL him to open up a spot, but if he only needed a couple of days and we gave him 2 weeks, doesn’t that say something about his value to the team?
“CB, no matter what manager you have, to start the season, i think a manager and the GM will always favor the veterans to start the season and give them a chance… so whether it was Torre or Girardi, or Mike Scoscia Jim Leyland, i think the roster would have been constructed pretty much the same to start.”
Ok – then why fire Torre? Why is Girardi showing Bruney “trust” any better than Torre showing “loyalty” to his veterans?
With Farnsworth money is definitely a factor. What’s the saying – you owe the bank $10,000 and its your problem. You owe the bank $10 million dollars and its the banks problem. That’s the issue with Farnswoth.
Bruney’s owed %750,000 – are the yankees really worried about that? He has options – let him prove himself in AAA if he is a new Bruney. Bruney should be held to the same standard the other relief pitchers are.
I also think that they should give Horne a few starts after he comes back from the biceps strain to make sure he’s ok. And then the should convert him to a relief role.
He is by far the most talented, close to major league ready arm they have. Whether they want to use him as a long man or as a short man he can contribute to the pen and should do so. He’s 25 and already throws 4 pitches. There’s not a lot he needs to work on for development.
Can Molina pitch? I’ve seen him throw Mariano-type-control strikes to second base. He wouldn’t need to do a lot of running
No doubt that Farnsworth’s & Bruney’s days are numbered. Once at least one of them are gone, it will be a huge breath of fresh air. Bring on Patterson!
The issue is though, if you want a long man on the staff (and I agree there needs to be one), somebody has to go.
If management/Girardi don’t have any intention of letting Bruney or Farnsworth go, it leaves one guy: Ohlendorf.
One could argue that sending Ohlendorf down for Rasner (the projected long guy) weakens the team.
One can also argue having both Farnsworth and Bruney on the team, with no long guy, weakens the team. Especially when Joba is unavailable.
I don’t think one can argue sending Bruney down (he has an option remaining) for Rasner weakens the team.
I don’t put Farnsworth into the equation right now because his contract probably precludes him from being dealt this early in the season. At some point though, both guys (Bruney and Farnsworth) need to go if you really want to improve the pitching staff over the long haul.
It gets back to roster construction. What makes you better? To me, having two ineffective guys (Bruney and Farnsworth) who are the same style of pitcher, is not in the teams best interests.
I’d feel much better if they optioned Bruney, called up Rasner (to be the long guy) and moved Ohlendorf back to a later inning role.
Once you can move Farnsworth, or an injury takes place, you have Albie and/or Patterson as the next guys in line.
Just seems to be a more sensible way to construct the roster to me.
IMO, Torre’s time with this team had passed, and sometimes change for the sake of change is good.
But in the case of Girardi, just because he and Cashman would have decided to keep just about the same roster that Torre and Cashman would have, it doesnt mean that he’ll use the roster in the same way.
Bullpen management, lineup changes, using bunting and hit and run more effectively to be aggressive in key situations… these are all things I expect to see a change in from the way Torre managed, and i think it adds a new sense of aggresiveness and urgency to the overall attitude of the team.
agreed, SJ.
Re: the Betemit issue, don’t get me wrong, I’m in agreement with most on Betemit. I think he brings little to the table.
I’m just saying that management may be leery of dealing their only LH bat off the bench.
The ironic thing is, if Jeter didn’t get hurt, the Yankees would have no idea of what Alberto Gonzalez could bring to the table.
Frankly, I see no reason why he should be buried in AAA. You have a farm system to make your parent club better.
To me, the question is simple. Does Alberto Gonzalez’ presence on the roster make the Yankee better? IMO, the answer is yes.
sj,
my question regarding the lh off the bench argument for betemit is who are you going to pinch hit for in this lineup? throughout the season, you’ve got giambi, matsui, and damon who are all likely to be on the bench at some point, and if the ag is in, it means either jete or cano is on the bench of that, that’s some presence off the bench if you need it (i know jete’s a righty).
for me personally, i believe that what he brings to the team is worth more than what betemit does. i’ve liked ensburg better for 1b and 3b, and while bet does have some power, he seems to be more of a threat to strike out, rather than extend the inning.
“Ok – then why fire Torre? Why is Girardi showing Bruney “trust†any better than Torre showing “loyalty†to his veterans?”
Girardi has made some positive moves early on, moves that Torre would have waited a while to do:
#1 Immediately noticed Matsui was a hot hitter and moved him right behind A-Rod.
#2 Realized Giambi isn’t contributing and moved him down in the pecking order.
#3 Staying awake in the 8th inning
#4 Paying attention to the matchups – even though it didn’t pay off well last night in that one inning.
I really enjoy watching Girardi manage this team. It is nice watching him interact with players on their way back to the dugout. He really looks like he is concentrating hard on the game.
But, in terms of roster management, we aren’t seeing that TurnTwo.
That’s the point some of us are making.
We are seeing the same stuff. There is no way Brian Bruney should have made the roster this year. Only money kept him on the roster.
I know, he lost weight and threw the ball well in the spring. Scott Patterson threw the ball better, much better, than anybody among the relief corp this spring.
They put that kid in every single situation possible. Starting innings, middle innings, end of game situations, coming into games with RISP, etc.
Guess what, he was perfect. Not merely good, perfect.
Yet, he doesn’t make the roster. How do you not make a roster when you are perfect?
One word answer was given “experience”. Sounds like Joe Torre to me.
I’m a huge Girardi supporter. I would dare say, there aren’t 10 people on this blog who are bigger supporters than Girardi than me.
But, that move alone smacks of “Torre-ism”. It cost him on Saturday and only a PH HR saved him from last nights debacle.
I’m holding out hope that April ends, the roster gets sorted out, and we move forward.
However, thus far, the manager in the chair has changed but, certain ways of doing the job, hasn’t.
Not troubling at all yet. But, its is a tad concerning if he doesn’t adjust to some things.
I don’t know why Billy Traber is getting a pass in all this. Last night was as much his fault as it was Bruney’s.
Traber has one job on the team and that’s to get lefties out.
That’s Traber’s only job and he failed miserably at it at yet all the blame is going to Bruney? If you’re brought on the team to specifically get lefties out you can’t allow a HR to one lefty and then hit the next lefty you face.
If Traber does what he’s supposed to do last night we aren’t even talking about Bruney, who I personally think has pitched too much already anyway he’s currently on a pace to throw over 80 innings this year but who’s counting.
SJ44, I have the answer to the lefty on the bench, his name is Jason Giambi. Ensberg should be starting until further notice. I don’t know what else Morgan has to do to prove himself worthy? Actually that guy could be a 3 headed combo of Giambi/Matsui/Damon.
“I don’t know why Billy Traber is getting a pass in all this. Last night was as much his fault as it was Bruney’s. ”
Because yesterday was the first time he screwed up, and I heard that the HR to Crawford was on a good pitch…Crawford just beat him. It happens. The HBP isn’t ok, though. But again, it’s not Traber falling back into the pattern we’ve seen over and over again. It is with Bruney, and with Farnsworth.
the other thing with Traber, he didn’t have much time to warmup, it looked like. it wasn’t a scheduled pitching change, it was due to ian getting hit.
Traber has never been used in the bull pen before on a regular basis.
He’s also never been used as a lefty set up man. It’s a new role for him.
In addition, he hasn’t gotten regular work this season (which he probably won’t as a lefty reliever but it’s still an adjustment and hopefully he won’t sit quite so long in the future.)
IMO we don’t know what Traber will do in his new role. In that situation you need to give it some time.
If he doesn’t perform then by all means he should go.
Bruney has an extensive track record that correlates very well with what we saw from him last night.
To me that’s the difference – it’s still unclear what Traber will do. With Bruney there’s a lot of evidence to suggest what he will do – and it’s not pretty.
Traber was front in center in the melt down last night. But the concern with last night wasn’t just winning or losing one game in April – it’s more about what that games suggests for moving forward.
“Actually that guy could be a 3 headed combo of Giambi/Matsui/Damon.”
A bunch of people said this already.
As for Jason sitting more…give the guy some warm weather to see if he can recapture his 06 form. If so, huge boost to the team.
Traber was beat on a good pitch; like whozat said, it happens. he’s not going to get out every LH he faces, and end the season with a 0.00 ERA. not realistic. plus, as the only real LH option right now, he’s not going anywhere.
and that HBP wasnt a HBP… it absolutely was fouled off the end/knob of the bat.
While I think it is a noble goal – the idea of dealing Farnsworth for anything of value seems pretty unlikely.
I think there was a trade on the table last year with the Braves of Farnsy for Wickman and the Yanks pay everyone’s salary. I don’t think we’ll do much better this year.
In the best case scenario, Ohlendorf continues to develop and becomes our 6/7 guy with any number of guys in that same barrel. Lets face it if any of them were any good now, they’d be pitching in the 8th.
Also – are we committed to Billy Traber just b/c he is a lefty? I would not be shocked if he visits SWB at some point.
I agree with Jeff NJ regards Ensberg, he brings a good glove to first and he seems decent at the plate. Giambi would be fine as long as he can have Timlin throw every pitch to him.
Betemit’s roster move was not because of his eye, it was because we needed to make room. If Molina and Jeter were healthy and the team had all decks on hand, you wouldn’t see a move for pinkeye. Medicated eyedrops and quarantine would be the regimen. He’d just sit for a few days.
However, don’t assume it’s a minor thing. Anyone remember Garret Anderson of the Angels in the postseason last year? His eye was the size of a golfball and of course it affected his play against Boston.
“In the best case scenario, Ohlendorf continues to develop and becomes our 6/7 guy with any number of guys in that same barrel. Lets face it if any of them were any good now, they’d be pitching in the 8th.”
No…because there’s not room on the roster for any of the guys in AAA due to Farnsworth and Bruney. And Ollie keeps needing to throw 3 innings at a stretch so he’s unavailable for higher leverage innings. Ross has the stuff to be an 8th inning guy. That’s the best case scenario. To basically write off the entire relief corps that didn’t crack the roster on opening day is stupid.
Pete- where was the tribute to a legend??
“Pete- where was the tribute to a legend??”
Guys wearing 42 today to honor jackie robinson.
Jeff,
That’s a good point. If Jason isn’t hitting, or it becomes a matchup issue against a certain pitcher, that’s certainly a viable option.
Traber wasn’t great last night. But, he has been considerably better than Bruney.
I don’t know, maybe its just me. But, when you have a guy whose career numbers are 7 BB and 8 hits per 9 innings (which is the Bruney career line), I just don’t see him as a viable bullpen option for the New York Yankees.
There are better options in the Yankee system than Brian Bruney.
Even though he has had a marginal career, Billy Traber has held lefties to a BA under .220 in his career.
If he just does that, he’s an asset to the team.
I’m still waiting to see what exactly Bruney brings to this team.
As far as individual gaffes and goats, it’s unfair to crucify people on one at-bat or one mistake over the plate. You really need to evaluate over the course of the season, or at the very least a longer period of time than a game or two.
What if Bruney or Traber don’t give up another run for the whole year? They would be deemed a success, no?
Also, it’s unfair to say someone’s a goat when it’s a team sport. Why blame Bruney on Saturday for allowing an inherited runner to score? If we got a single hit or sacrifice with RISP, it wouldn’t even be an issue.
I’m not defending Bruney personally (I’m rather irritated), but there were plenty of other opportunities to win games this season.
I know this much, I’d put Joba in the rotation right and make Ross Ohlendorf the 8th inning guy.
That’s how much confidence I have in Ohlendorf. He has NASTY stuff.
One inning, not having to face hitters more than one time, nobody will like facing Ohlendorf.
I know they won’t do it but, that’s how good Ohlendorf can be.
Its a waste to have him as the long man and, as has been stated, that’s only because Farnsworth and Bruney are on the roster.
Not the best way to construct the roster, IMO.
Its getting tougher and tougher to win games in the AL. You can’t do it with guys on the roster who are holding you back.
Hopefully, the powers that be realize this soon and make the necessary adjustments.
Every 1st and 15th of the month (player paydays) Farnsworth’s 2008 contract of $ 5.5M gets to be less of an albatross.
Both he and Bruney asked for and received confidence from Joe Girardi for this year and up to this point Farnsworth has disappointed the most. He is who he is.
There’s any number of teams on the lookout for relievers and if Cashman were to decide that in order to move the 32 year old still marketable Farnsworth, he’d have to assume $ 2M of his remaining contract, I suggest that Hank & Hal would give the green light to get the best deal possible.
“The ironic thing is, if Jeter didn’t get hurt, the Yankees would have no idea of what Alberto Gonzalez could bring to the table.”
This is a very good point. And there’s now way to know if there’s not a a relief pitcher in AAA who could help the team in the bull pen the way Gonzalez has helped them in the infield.
It may be the Gonzalez is s much better fit for the team and can help them much more than Betement. Unless you give a young player a chance, however, you’ll never know.
Gonzelez could have failed miserably. Fine. Send him back down and make due with Betemit.
But look at what they may have gained by being forced into giving Gonzelez a shot.
Not saying one of the pitchers in AAA can do that but many of them are performing well down there (just as Gonzalez was) and you can’t know until you try.
The pen is going to be the key for this team. Between Phil, Kennedy and Mussina 3/5 of their rotation probably won’t work deep into the game. The bull pen is going to throw a lot of innings. If those aren’t quality innings they are in trouble.
The pen going into last night’s game had an ERA of 3.09. The team ERA was 3.41. Those are the reasons why they been able to play .500 ball while not hitting.
And if they are every going to get Joba out of the pen they need to try to line up a replacement while he is still in the pen. That way they can transition someone into that 8th inning role.
They need to experiment and take some chances. But to do that you need flexibility on the roster.
Please excuse my shameless self promotion, but…
We recently did an interview with author Richard Bradley who wrote a book about the ‘78 playoff game between the Red Sox and Yankees. That was the Bucky Dent homerun game for those who are unfamiliar. Anyway, we’re really excited about it, and hope some of yall will take a look.
http://respectjetersgangster.blogspot.com
…Shameless self promotion over.
wsr -
I don’t know how long Traber was warming up, but from what I’ve read he was going to be coming in at that point in time regardless of whether Kennedy got hit with that line drive or not. It was Kennedy’s last hitter, and the next guy up was the lefty – Traber’s territory.
If Bruney and Farnsworth could locate their pitches instead of just hauling back and throwing, it wouldn’t be a problem that they were one and the same in style, and it wouldn’t necessarily be a problem to have them both in the bullpen, alternating appearances. I tend to agree that Farnsworth probably is not a candidate for reclamation, but Bruney showed a lot by showing up to spring training ready to go and ready to make necessary changes. I say if he’s got that mind set, he may not be a lost cause in spite of his track record.
And economics do enter into the equation, like it or not. And if someone is on the team, in the bullpen, they’re not going to just sit there unused. Girardi’s definitely going to have to pick his spots, and that hamstrings Girardi somewhat. But it sure seems to me that every team in the either league has bullpen consistency problems, but I don’t follow other teams as closely as I do the Yankees.
I think Bruney is the least of worries right now. And I don’t see why we lump him in with Farnsworth. Farnsworth is not good, he doesn’t miss bats…Bruney actually has good stuff. He got hit due to bad location, it happens. SJ, I agree with probably 95% of what you post, but it seems you just plain don’t like Bruney. He has pitched well so far this year (and he has been used ALOT)…lets give him a chance.
The worst part of last night? It beats the drum for those who want Joba to stay in the bullpen.
That ticks me off more than Bruney’s performance.
They don’t make the playoffs last year if not for a 21 year old (Joba) with less than 6 months service time as a pro.
I see no reason why they can’t be creative again in their development of the bullpen. It worked last year.
I’m all for April being a month of seeing what you have.
What they have are two holes in the ‘pen. They have the parts in AAA to plug the holes. Hopefully, they do.
With the way Betemit played Short the Yankees had to do something different. That is what brought up Gonzalez. Jeter being hurt and Betty playing the position adequately would not have given Gonzalez the shot to show what he could do.
Bruney doesn’t have great stuff. He just throws hard.
Throwing hard isn’t great stuff. He, like Farnsworth, has no movement on his fastball.
Location is everything in pitching. He also can’t locate, which is why he is so ineffective.
7 walks and 8 hits per 9 innings in his career as a relief pitcher. As CB noted, that’s worse than Farnsworth. Its also plain awful. With those numbers, its amazing he is on this roster.
They are lumped together because they are the same type of pitcher. Throwers, who can’t get big outs, and who are only on the roster due to guaranteed contracts.
Bruney has had 2 non-soft landing games this year. Saturday and last night. He failed miserably at both.
JMO but, I’ve seen enough. He is what he is.
If he truly has “changed” as a pitcher, go to AAA, throw 30 innings, and lets re-evaluate at that time.
Right now, he’s the same guy and it almost cost them the game last night.
After his performance playing in the monsoon last week I’m not ready to vote Bruney off the island yet. Farnsworth on the other hand I’ve had more than enough of.
hmmm…blog must be hungry, it ate my post.
Basically, I talked about goats in a team sport. We can’t kill players on an at-bat or relief inning basis.
Everyone’s on Bruney about letting the inherited runner score on Saturday. Well, what about all the RISPs that weren’t capitalized on?
If Bruney, Kyle, and Traber don’t allow a single run for the rest of the season they’d be the toast of the town, right?
Pitchers will fail, hitters will fail, managers will fail so you’ve got to look at the big picture and not make any one player the goat because it’s a team sport.
Wilkins De La Rosa’s line last night
2.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 2 BB, 5 K’s, 2.08 ERA
should they push him to Tampa ?
Yeah funny thing about Joba, the better he does, the more the pundits call for him to stay in the same role. Most rational Yankee fans relaize though, that over the last 3 postseasons, the 8th inning guy and for that matter the entire bullpen has not been the reason the Yankees lost those series. It was poor starting pitching. All those games were won or lost by the starter. FYI, if our rotation going into the playoffs is Wang, Joba, Pettitte, TBD, look out American League.
“And I don’t see why we lump him in with Farnsworth. Farnsworth is not good, he doesn’t miss bats…Bruney actually has good stuff.”
Career performance:
Farnsworth: ERA – 4.47; BB/9 – 4; Hits/ 9 – 8.5; WHIP – 1.4
Bruney: ERA – 4.93; BB/9 – 7; Hits/ 9 – 8.2; WHIP – 1.7
You’re right I’m not sure why we’re lumping Fransworth and bruney together – Bruney has a considerably worse ERA, walk rate, and WHIP.
Bruney walks 75% more hitters per 9 innings than Farnsworth does.
Kyle deserves better than to be lumped with Bruney, who has clearly been the inferior pitcher.
At some point, the yankees will have to make a decision on farnsworth. right now it is his contract that is holding things up. how long they will go before they eat it is anyone’s guess. he is just a thrower and there is a big difference between that and a pitcher.
Got to give it to them last night. they came back and won and the hitting was good.
“Wang, Joba, Pettitte, TBD”
TBD = Phil Hughes.
And yes, that will be our best playoff rotation in quite some time.
“Yeah funny thing about Joba, the better he does, the more the pundits call for him to stay in the same role. ”
This is a major problem and the one of the biggest reactions so many people in the media drew from last nights game was that Joba has to – has to – stay in the pen.
Many of us have been concerned about this – every time Joba goes out there and throws the eight inning people feel more certain that’ his “natural” role and that the team can’t win without him in that role (which is a self-fulfilling prophesy if you don’t give another one of their young, talented arms a shot at the 8th inning role).
I can only imagine how Francesa’s going to yell about his today.
Yanks don’t need a lefty-pinch hitter off the bench re: Betemit. Who are they going to pinch hit for? This is the American League and these are The Yankees with a stocked, overloaded (hopefully) lineup.
puhleaze
CB, I get your point, but 556 career games for Farnsworth vs. 160 games for Bruney…..so as I said, lets give him a chance, its April.
No one’s talking about it, but I have to say that while I wasn’t impressed with Girardi’s decision to leave Bruney on the mound in the 8th again, I was impressed with Bruney’s bounce-back inning.
When the Yankees had an 8-7 lead.
Dunno about you, but I’d call it a game situation.
I’m kind of torn on him. His career numbers are not good. However, I like to believe people can change, however misguided the notion may be.
Closely watched tomorrw night will be Darrell Rasner’s start for Scranton/ Wilkes-Barre. If he throws a quality start it could pave his way to be the buffer should Hughes, Mussina, or Kennedy have early game problems and not tax the bullpen in the process.
In a few different situations in March, Rasner showed more than the ever brittle Karstens when the long relief role was strongly considered.
Hughes, Mussina, and Kennedy have been spotty and until the 3 show consistency, Rasner could be a flexible factor.
This makes the rest of the bullpen one inning appearances by all.
cb and sj44-
i’ve scoured the web, andi think i’ve found a pitcher i’d much prefer to see coming into a game than either farnsworth or bruney:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipsGNKIjjTE&NR=1
Good find Randy, sign ‘em up.
“CB, I get your point, but 556 career games for Farnsworth vs. 160 games for Bruney…..so as I said, lets give him a chance, its April.”
160 games is not a small sample for a relief pitcher.
Over the past two years Mariano has been in 130 games and thrown 150 innings.
Bruney’s thrown 150 innings in the majors. That is in no way a small sample for a relief pitcher.
150 innings is what many reliever’s throw over the course of 3 seasons.
You can draw a lot of conclusions based on 150 games for a relief pitcher. There’s not a lot of projection to do after that.
Didn’t the Yankees give Brueny a very solid chance last year? Didn’t arizona give him a chance in 2004 and 2005.
I’m not saying DFA him – I’m saying that he could go to AAA and prove that he’s a completely revamped pitcher.
He doesn’t need to be on the 25 man roster to be given another chance.
And Bruney has not been slightly worse than Farnsworth – he’s been much worse.
Jeff I gave Alex Gonzalez a meatball in Gm.6 just signed a minor league deal w/ Milwaukee
“whozat
“Pete- where was the tribute to a legend??â€
Guys wearing 42 today to honor jackie robinson.”
Thanks whozat…I was expecting a bunch bigger write up than a one liner, so I thought there was something else.
I agree with sending Bruney down. Bring up Patterson, let’s at least see what he can do in a regular season major league game. he faced major leaguers all spring and was perfect. he’s faced major leaguers in winter ball and fared well there. so just because he’s never actually pitched a major league regular season game that means he’s not worth a shot? sounds flawed to me. They definitely need to try Patterson and let Bruney go down to Scranton and work himself out.
It would be really nice if Andy goes 7 strong for us tonight. Try Albaladejo in the 8th, he’s fresh. Mo in the 9th if needed, he hasn’t had too much work so far. The bullpen needs some rest in any event. go get em Andy!
Hey Rebecca,
Not to sound like your mother, but how’s the thesis coming?
SJ, CB…
As I’ve said numerous times, I enjoy your posts and insight tremendously, but it seems to me that you are wrong wrt to Bruney (Farnsworth, ugh).
Bruney has a passt track record. Not good. So the guy comes to ST some 20 lbs lighter and in much better shape (important) showing a real commitment to improve.
His performance in ST and so far in the regular season up until lasat night has been terrific. His stepping in to pitch the first couple of innings in KC was a yeoman effort, and KC is no slouch so far this year.
So last night he gets called in to relieve Trabor after the lefty fails to get the job done (you go easy on Trabor), and he gives up two HRs. Yet you don’t mention that he was working with a catcher he had never seen before. Ken Singleton noted that Moeller called for 3 FBs in a row to a good FB hitter (Upton), and then called for a 4th after getting ahead 1-2. Singleton said you shouldn’t do that for a number of reasons because the hitter has now ‘timed’ your FB and is just looking for location. Moeller called for the pitch in the same place.
You guys do a great analysis on this stuff, but as Dee and others have pointed out, Bruney has already earned some slack here. Got to disagree (But not on KF)
Clare:
The good news: I made more progress last night than in all of the past week.
The bad: I’m still shy of 60.
I did a really really short (as in, sometimes the less said, the better
Erm. To put that in English, I did a really short Robinson write up.
Sometimes you say more with less.
Moeller also called fastball for Longoria when a slider would have probably been a better bet. Minor leaguer, they hit fastballs, vs guy who can break off a pretty nasty slider and its 1-2? Go slider!
CB, I just think it would be an extreme overreaction to send Bruney down based on his performance THIS year (spring and regular season)….if you want to bash him on past performance thats fair, but you can’t send him down to Scranton because of it.
don’t forget the fastball to Upton by Mariano, Moeller was ok but some of his placement calls were iffy last night, but I know what CB and SJ means w/ the track record.
Schilling is so POed at Boston he would sign with the yankees next year.. guess he means Scranton
http://tinyurl.com/6nf5lq
Schilling can go rot in h…
What makes red light think the Yankees would want him? The guy is a total — I woudn’t want him on this team.
someone mentioned in another thread that Mariano looked angry with Moeller and A-Rod put his arm around Mo to calm him down… Anyone else see that? I heard Singleton say something about Mariano being “escorted” off the field by A-Rod, thought it was a strange way to put it but didn’t think much of it. Anything there?
His doctor should keep his mouth shut.If I were Schilling no matter what my true feelings were I certainly do not need a doctor going on a radio station in Philly and making such pronouncements.
Chris he looked really pissed IDK if it was because he tried doubling up on the same spot and Mo clearly didn’t want to throw the ball in that spot. Alex did escort him away last night. weird scene….
Schilling didn’t say it his doctor did. I could not possibly care less what either of them say……..
Schilling? Oh Hell to the no
Morning,
I got home to watch the 8th inning yesterday. Did Gonzalez make any good plays at second?
We had a poll yesterday on who should be the 8th inning guy. Some said Bruney others Hawkins. I think my vote won. Rivera 8th and 9th is the safest route for now. I dont trust the same guys in there that were blowing games for us last year. Time for a change. As far as Hawkins, I think he will give us what Viz did. Which is 2 good games and 1 bad.
Is it just me or does Rivera look more dominating than ever? When is the last time he had a start to a season like this one? Maybe that extra year isnt as bad as we first thought. Man you dont know what you have till its gone. He’s like having a franchise quarterback on your team. Cant get enough.
Based solely off this season so far, I’ll give Bruney some slack. He gave up 2 hits, 3 walks, and no runs in the 7 innings (over 5 appearances; albeit low leverage) prior to last night. And at least he did manage to bounce back with 4 straight outs after the 2 home runs.
Maybe weight loss and a attitude change could spur a career change, or at least a career year, or it could very well do nothing. But I’d like to give him some more innings and see.
Re: Farnsworth; no argument here. The guy gave up runs in half of his appearances before last night. Heck, he’s giving up over 1.5 hits per inning so far :/
To: John
Re: Bondy’s Daily News rant this a.m.
OK, fair point about “It’s a Wonderful Life.”
I used the movie as an example of going back to a point in time before an event and then going forward to see how life would have been different. My point further was that absent Yankee Stadium, there is no neighborhood there, no Yankee or MLB or baseball related (parking, security, etc) jobs and no park to sit next to the Stadium waiting to give birth to the new one. All land use choices are a mater of vision and compromise. It’s a democracy thing.
As for the parks, The Yankees are giving back parkland at the Stadium site, paying for parkland and facilities at the site and creating (and paying for) parkland elsewhere in the City (Bronx). It’s a standard deal the City allows developers to make.
My final point: Bondy was just trying to find a familiar “angle” so he conveniently left out the relevant portions of the new Stadium Development deal. In reality, the Professional Tree Huggers from Park Slope, Brooklyn Heights, the Upper West Side, the East Side and all over this decidedly Blue City, were trying to hold up the New Stadium for their own satisfaction, not for trees or grass or the residents of a borough they rarely visit and couldn’t find on a subway map.
It’s time for Bondy to stop trying to make Steinbrenner, Inc. look like the Hooker Chemical Co., equating the new stadium with Love Canal.
My reaction re: Bruney isn’t just off last night.
Last night is just the latest example of his ineffectiveness.
Yes, he lost weight, and let his hair grow out. Guess what? He is the same pitcher.
Same guy who gave up an 0-2 hit to Youk on Saturday (the GW run) and the same guy who crumbled last night.
You can’t blame Moeller for that. He can always shake him off if he doesn’t like the pitch selection.
Relief pitchers with career WHIP’s of 1.6 aren’t good. In fact, they are career AAA guys on good teams.
He just isn’t good. I know folks are enamored with his fastball and the fact he lost weight.
Well, let him pitch for Jenny Craig. I’d rather have a guy in the bullpen you can count on to get outs. I don’t care how much he weighs.
He ain’t the guy and he has never been. The numbers back it up.
I just hope Girardi doesn’t put more games in play learning that lesson.
Chris and Brandon:
Yeah, I thought Mo looked angry with Moeller too. Moeller had a kind of perplexed look on his face and wasn’t doing the usual handshake with the closer and Mo was walking away without his usual smile. Odd.
“His performance in ST and so far in the regular season up until lasat night has been terrific.”
It’s very difficult to assess how good a relief pitcher is performing because the usual pitching statistics we look at to measure performane aren’t helpful for relief pitchers.
For example, ERA is very limited for a relief pitcher because if a relief pitcher lets a runner on base score the earned run is assigned to the pitcher who put that runner on base.
So last night even though traber gave up the home run, Kennedy was charged with one earned run because the hitter who hit the ball off his hip was safe and on base when Traber gave up the HR.
That’s pretty crummy. Especially because one of the most important jobs of a relief pitcher, if not the single most important job, is to prevent runners from scoring. That’s usually why a relief pitcher is brought into the game.
So many people have devised different ways of assessing relief pitchers. One of the best systems for doing so was created by Baseball Prospectus. It’s called Win Expectancy.
“The probability of winning the current game, given some information about how many runs each team has scored to a certain point in the game, how many outs there are, whether there are runners on base, and the strength of each team.”
I like this statistic a lot because it just makes a lot of intuitive sense. The better a relief pitcher is the more he increases the chances of his team winning the game once he enters that game. Makes sense. What we care about is winning games.
So whose been the best relief pitcher for the yankees so far this year? No surprise – Mo. Compared to an average relief pitcher Mo has contributed 0.612 more wins.
Whose been second best – again, no surprise. Joba – he’s contributed 0.604 more wins compared to average.
So who has been the worse relief pitcher on the yankees to date this year?
Brian Bruney.
Bruney has won them -0.213 games compared to the average pitcher.
That means that after Bruney has entered a game in 2008 he makes it less likely for the yankees to win – or in other words once he’s entered the game he’s made it more likely for the yankees to lose that game compared to the average relief pitcher.
And this is not an anomaly with only Bruney. The second worse relief pitcher for the yankees so far – Kyle Farnsworth at -0.162. Then it’s Latroy Hawkins at -0.057.
So why has Bruney been so bad and yet many people have the impression that he’s pitched well so far?
Because Bruney has done well in low leverage situations – he’s done well when he’s entered the game with no one on base to start an inning.
But he’s done badly in high leverage situations – he’s done badly when he’s entered the game with men on base.
So overall, he’s been considerably worse than an average relief pitcher this year. He’s been considerably worse than even Farnsworth. In fact Bruney has been worse than a replacement level relief pitcher – the kind you’d find as a marginal AAA pitcher.
So this year Bruney has already hurt the team and been far worse than average in the appearances he’s made because he’s been very bad in big, high leverage spots.
I’m not making this stuff up – it just appears that he’s been good. But he really hasn’t been.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=311820
CB: That is a really cool stat.
Out of curiosity, how is team strength gauged?
Rebecca,
Win Exectancy is probably the single most useful stat Baseball Prospectus does. Even the guys at Baseball Prpospectus say that.
The reason being is that it serves a real purpose that’s otherwise difficult to fill. It’s very, very difficult to assess how a relief pitcher is actually doing because there are so many factors at play that depend on context.
How many runners on base, what inning, who is at the plate, what ball park, what is the score, etc.
I find it very helpful and often surprising.
I have to admit I have low expectations when Bruney and Farnsworth come into games.
Its not as sophisticated as the Win Expectancy equation from Baseball Prospectus.
Its more, “What will these guys do tonight to ruin my evening”. lol
Brandon,
Half that Charleston team may be in Tampa by mid-season.
Man, they are good. I don’t think folks realize yet how good that team is.
Brandon Laird and Justin Snyder (first and second base) are mashers. Those kids are going to be play in the majors one day just based on their offensive abilities. Snyder is a guy who can be another super-utility player. He is some kind of talent.
Carmen Angelini is showing why the Yankees paid him a million bucks to sign. He will probably spend the entire season in Charleston. He will be in AA next year, IMO.
Montero is a monster. Plain and simple. Only way he stays in Charleston this year is if he gets hurt. He has a shot at finishing the year in AA. Even if its as a DH. Kids who hit like him aren’t long for the low minors.
Find me another single A team in baseball with 3 guys who possess the starting pitching talent of Betances, McAllister and Heredia.
That is a team to watch for as long as they are together this summer.
“Out of curiosity, how is team strength gauged?”
Not exactly sure but in other similar statistics usually what they do is look at the total number of runs allowed and runs scored a team has put up. W-L may factor in but I’d guess it’s strength is related to runs allowed/scored.
Genius or idiot.
Good for Joe Girardi for putting Bruney back in. No way would Torre have done it.
The difference between genius and idiot is whether or not the moves works.
Just reading through this thread, I have to agree with the posters who say it’s not essential to have a LH bat on the bench.
This team is loaded with LH hitters and which of the righty hitters are we pinch hitting for? Molina, Gonzales, Ensberg and Duncan (when comes back up) are part time players. If they are in the game, that means our bench has a quality LH hitter on it in the player they are replacing.
I don’t think keeping Betemit just because he can swing lefty is enough when on most nights, we’d have a better option in the LH hitters I mentioned above to pinch hit for the righties we would even consider pinch hitting for.
The roster is so fluid and guys are getting days off here and there that at any given time we have quality lefty bats on the bench.
Betemit needs to get traded. I don’t believe in DFA’ing him at all. He’s still young and he’s been regarded as a good prospect for awhile now. We should be able to get something of value for him. He needs to play every day. I don’t think the part time role suits the guy.
The SF Giants are so devoid of talent, I can’t imagine they can’t give up a prospect or two for Betemit.
Ensberg has a role on this team and he should not be cast aside for the likes of Betemit.
Cool stat, but what does it tell in such a small sample size….Bruney has been in 6 games this year, 3 games they won, 3 games they lost (one of those losses was a game Bruney started, can’t fault him for that loss). Doesn’t sound like he’s been “very bad”.
I on the other hand have high expectations with Bruney and will continue to until I see that there is really no good reason to feel that way.
The one thing that I won’t do is judge any of the pitching based on the way Joe Torre used his relievers – and the end result.
SJ44 – “I know this much, I’d put Joba in the rotation right and make Ross Ohlendorf the 8th inning guy.”
Who would you take out of the rotation to replace with Joba? Or are you just making a point about Ohlendorf?
One question – specifically to CB or SJ. Who should have pitched last nights 7th or 8th? And I agree whole hearted with Farnsforth. I will say I have slightly more faith in Bruney, but not much.
I suggest last nights move was correct. IMO, Farnworth should go in favor of Patterson and Bruney for Veras. Patterson or Oley to fill in anywhere from early inning to 7th. Veras 6th or 7th. Then to Joba and Mo. Long men are dangerous cause they go extended stretches with no work and then get rusty. Better to have guys who serve multiple roles.
As for Betemit. He’s a man with no home. We don’t need a L bat cause we dont pinch hit much and his D is sub par.
“Yanks don’t need a lefty-pinch hitter off the bench re: Betemit. Who are they going to pinch hit for? This is the American League and these are The Yankees with a stocked, overloaded (hopefully) lineup.
puhleaze”
Thank you! Well said.
jko
April 15th, 2008 at 11:45 am
Schilling is so POed at Boston he would sign with the yankees next year.. guess he means Scranton
***********************************************************
Sorry, but Scranton nor any level of Yankee baseball has interest in a 41 year old doughnut gorging bag of wind.
I see CB’s point about WE measuring the right things, but I also agree with Bam Bam Muelens. Isn’t small sample distortion a problem making assessments in April?
Hmm, just noticed that 4 of the starters have zeroes across the board for that table; is that table only relevant for relievers then? If so, then are the values for Kennedy based solely off his bullpen appearance against the Royals?
“Cool stat, but what does it tell in such a small sample size….Bruney has been in 6 games this year, 3 games they won, 3 games they lost (one of those losses was a game Bruney started, can’t fault him for that loss). Doesn’t sound like he’s been “very badâ€.”
Small sample size has absolutely nothing to do with the question.
The question is – so far this season, has Bruney done well as a relief pitcher for the yankees.
One person after another has said that so far THIS season Bruney has been good.
But if you look at this win expectancy it tells you that THIS season he has been bad.
I bring this up because a number of people have said well he’s lost weight, shown committment, and he’s been good so far THIS season.
His win expectancy has nothing to do with his past performance. It’s only assessing now.
And when you bring up the fact that the yankees have won 3 of the games he’s won and lost 3 you’re not understanding that the statistic is based on a probability.
It’s the probability of winning after Bruney appears in the game.
So what it’s telling you is that in the 3 games the yankees have won in which Bruney has appeared – they have won DESPITE him rather than because of him.
The other thing it tells you is that in the low leverage appearances he’s made – e.g. starting an inning (as in KC) he probably did ok but in the times when he’s come in in higher leverage situations he’s been very bad and cost them dearly.
If you have a negative win share of -0.213 you’ve been very bad.
Bruney’s career numbers suggest he is what he is. In the two non-soft landing games he has pitched this year, he fail miserably in both. He isn’t going to improve any greater based on an overall examination of his career.
In looking at the roster, here is what I would do right now:
1. Call up Rasner and send Bruney to Scranton. Three reasons. They need a long man. That’s Rasner. The move gets Ohlendorf back to his rightful spot at the back end of the bullpen. It gives the Yankees a different type of weapon (because of his sinker) back there. It also breaks up Farnsworth and Bruney. Same type of pitcher and the Yankees can’t afford to have two of those type of guys on the roster right now.
They can’t move Farnsworth right now because of money. Bruney has an option and, like it was in the case of Shelley Duncan, he’s the odd man out. Suck it up and do what’s right for the team. Shelley did, I see no reason why Bruney can’t.
If he truly “different” this year, he can do what Shelley has done. Go to AAA, dominate (Shelley is hitting .500 at AAA), and he will be back.
They need more flexibility re: pitching options on the roster due to the innings uncertainties of Moose, Hughes and Kennedy. This move provides more certainty in that area.
2. Keep Betemit on the DL for awhile and keep Gonzalez on the roster. Seems like a no brainer to me.
3. Once the catching situation is straighted out, its time for them to bring Shelley back and send Moeller down.
Adding Shelley and Rasner, while keeping Gonzalez on the team, seems to be the best overall roster for this team at this time.
Great point from those who mentioned Moeller as a factor who likely affected Bruney’s performance last night. David Cone would never have thrown a perfect game without Joe Girardi (no I’m not comparing Bruney to Coney, but the point is still valid).
And Mo did look pissed at the end.
SJ I was listening to the game last night as Almonte got to 1B on a hitless night and the announcer couldn’t believe the jets Angelini showed on the base paths. Montero is a damn beast, Rufino has found his power, Snyder and Laird are not slowing down, and Wilkins De La Rosa is starting to become lights out. He is using his curveball to get K’s and the fastball when located it’s hard to pick up from what they say. I still don’t know how his delivery looks but batters are getting uncomfortable w/ him. THAT CHARLESTON TEAM ROCKS !!
Russell,
I was more making a point of how impressed I am with Ohlendorf.
I will say though that if Hughes continues to struggle, and needs to go to AAA for a spell, I’d make that switch in a heartbeat.
Murph,
My angst re: Bruney isn’t off last night. Last night was just the latest installment to me of what he is and I think the Yankees can do better at that spot.
He made the same pitching mistake to Youk on Saturday. No matter how much weight he loses, he will still never change as a pitcher.
What would I have done last night? Precisely what Girardi did (Traber, then Bruney) until Bruney gave up the HR to Upton.
Then, you get him out of there, go with Albie, and hope he can get you 4 outs until its Mo time.
They got lucky last night because Bruney once again left a fastball over the middle of the plate and Jason Bartlett almost tied the score again.
I would not have put Bruney in a position to hurt me again after the HR to Upton. Hopefully, that’s a lesson learned for Girardi and he moves on from it.
“Who should have pitched last nights 7th or 8th? ”
My criticism of Bruney is not a criticism of Girardi or his decision to use him.
I believe that in April you have to experiment with guys filling different roles to see how to use them best.
In that assessment on how to move forward you factor in both their past performance and current performance.
So I was fine with Girardi bringing in Bruney.
But after the boston game and last night’s game IMO the new Bruney experiment is over.
Given his track record I don’t think he had any room to slip in the big spots he was put in. He blew the opportunity he was given and now he should go back down to AAA and prove himself over time.
At this point I would send him down and call up Patterson. I would use Albabladejo as a long man – he pitched well in that 3 inning stint he gave them earlier in the year. I’m willing to see what he can do there. I’d move Ohlendorf and Patterson to the late inning roles.
Ultimately, I’d convert Alan Horne to the bull pen and bring him up ASAP after he recovers from the biceps strain.
None of these guys – Patterson, Albabladejo, etc has Horne’s talent. I don’t see why they shouldn’t try to do what they did with Joba last yea with him.
A good friend of mine owns that, and several other, minor league teams.
He told me, based on talent alone, its the best Class A team he has ever had.
Just as important, he said they are all good kids. Solid citizen types.
I will be down there in a few weeks to check them out. I can’t wait.
CB,
I think that was the plan for Horne until he got hurt.
Hopefully, he will be ok and be back on that track.
SJ44,
I’d love to see what you think about Angelini after watching him play in person. He is my favorite prospect in the Yankees system, but unfortuantely, I will not be able to see him play anytime soon.
Would love to hear what you think about him after seeing him play in person.
SJ,
I hope so on Horne. It’s not optimal, but I just can’t see keeping Horne down in AAA when they try to experiment or get by with guys who have far less talent. I hope he recovers from that injury quickly.
The charleston team is really just jaw dropping. It’s so good it’s hard to believe. There might be 10-12 kids there who have a high probability of playing in the majors. Unbelievable.
SJ very interesting friends you have …
wanna hear a crazy stat .. prior to this season from 04′ – 07′ minor league and ML wise in 1613 ABs Gonzo has only struck out 192 times.
And I think it’s time they push De La Rosa to Tampa A, he has a special arm and I’d think do to his age they would want to catch lighting in a bottle w/ him.
jerkface:
I have a feeling longoria is going to hit his share of fastballs and sliders out of the park for years to come…
Then I can see and agree to your points. I personally love to play GM. Pens are tough to figure. I see that past loyalties are playing a role and Bruney early made it hard to move him down. I’d be shocked if some moves didnt come by June.
due to his age *
Damn I missed Mo being ticked. He really looked that mad?
Is Alberto a better hitter than people (or at least people on here) gave him credit for? He certainly has been so far, but it’s only been a few games… his career minor league stats, when you look at the years where he spent significant time at one level, don’t seem too bad.
SJ, I have to agree with Brandon. Those are some interesting friends
Still, if we have this level of talent in our minor league system now, I have to wonder, what the heck were we doing the last few years before?
Side note:
I am happy to find that our long “anti-mussina” nightmare is over. I think Pete ran that guy off.
One small step for man . . .
Just read that Schilling thing. He’s said in the past he would never, ever pitch for the Yankees. He’ll deny he ever told his doctor anything like that.
But I do find if funny that his physician does radio and is basically an extension of Schilling’s mouth. Dang, we knew had a big mouth, but that’s ridiculous.
Schilling’s finding out how cheap and cold an operation the Red Sox are. He looks at how the Yankees took care of Pavano, even though he’s clearly been dead weight for the last 4 years.
Is there a countdown for Giambi and Pavano?
Larry (MA): A lot of Yankee fans I know were saying it was Bush League for the Red Sox to run on the ailing Posada. What do you think?
Rob Neyer: (12:52 PM ET ) Your Yankee fans sound like maybe they’re crazy. I didn’t know teams were supposed to stop trying to win when a gimpy player took the field.
http://bp2.blogger.com/_Fsh7GWfK4f0/SATDB6_Rr5I/AAAAAAAABco/MQXMxqUns0k/s1600-h/YS041008_2.jpg
Is it me or does it look like the fabrise (sp) will block your view if you are in the last few rows?
SJ,
I trust your judgments of players a lot. Just curious why you think Duncan “needs to be on this team? In the limited amount that I have seen him, he looks like he has much too big a swing to sustain success at the ML level.
Rishi
Forward that to Joe T. BUNT ON THE MOUTH!! HELLO!!!
that is exactly what I was thinking when I read it!!!!
Rishi: I agree with Neyer on this. It’s part of the game.
What we were doing in years past was having George’s friends run the draft and wasting a lot of money on veteran contracts at the ML level.
It changed in 2005 when Cashman was given full control of the team, re: player issues.
We are just beginning to see the fruits of that move.
I don’t have an issue with what Girardi did last night (the pitching moves) up to the HR to Upton. After that, you can’t risk Bruney beating you again. He did and he survived it. That has more to do with luck than baseball acumen, IMO.
I’d have gone to Albie to get the next 4 outs.
Water under the bridge now.
IMO, Bruney, Farnsworth and Betemit won’t finish the year as Yankees. At some point, a comination of their collective ineffectiveness and better internal options, will end their careers in pinstripes.
not saying that I agree or disagree – but the first thing I thought of was bunting on bloody sox…
“his career minor league stats, when you look at the years where he spent significant time at one level, don’t seem too bad.”
Take a look at what Gonzalez did the second half of last year in AAA and then in winter ball.
He’s hit very well. He started the year in AAA and was terrible. They sent him down to AA and worked on his swing against easier competition. Something seems to have clicked. Then they sent him back to AAA and he continued to hit very well. Then that extended into the winter ball season.
He hit well over .300 in his second stint in AAA and in the winter.
“Just read that Schilling thing. He’s said in the past he would never, ever pitch for the Yankees.”
mel-Sounds like the same exact words Damon uttered.
jennifer:
The “frieze” looks to me like it won’t be blocking your view of the field from the most remote rows, but it may obscure the arcs on pop ups if you are in row ZZ.
I say that Duncan needs to be on the team for several reasons. One, his energy. It makes a difference.
Guys like Melky, Joba and Shelley took a dead, boring clubhouse and brought life into it.
Baseball is a grind. Sometimes, veterans need younger guys to freshen up the place. Also helps if they can play and all 3 guys can play.
Shelley may have a long swing but, he has a good approach at the plate. His baseball IQ (coming from a baseball family) is quite high.
I just think he has shown to be a good role player, good teammate, and more an asset to the team than Betemit.
I understand the roster crunch right now. But, as soon as the catching sitation clears up, I’d like to see Shelley back on the roster. He deserves to be on this team.
Rishi espically since the grass was wet!! You bunt it to make the pitcher field it hoping he fall on his butt and be taken out of the game. There is no way with the supposed surgery he had that we shouldn’t have bunted on him and knocked him out of the game. That has to be one of the single most dumb decisions! I think it is dumber than Grady leaving in Pedro.
have to agree with Neyer.. He was in the game with a bad shoulder, of course you run on him.
Are we going to ask teams to stop running on Damon because he was born with a wet noodle where arms usually grow?
murphydog
Okay, it looked like it could block the view to me. And thanks for correcting my spelling I knew I butchered the spelling.
CB…
Thanks for taking the time to respond. (And please, feel free to correct my ridiculous spelling errors when you do).
Sorry, but I can’t buy that stat you quoted. And I appreciate that analysts just love to develop metrics in attempts to quantify everything. While my OR and finance backgrounds are somewhat dated, I still remember the ‘Internet bubble’ where new metrics were coming out everyday and were used to justify valuations reaching infinity. We know where that went.
So,
“The probability of winning the current game, given some information about how many runs each team has scored to a certain point in the game, how many outs there are, whether there are runners on base, and the strength of each team.â€
Is really a weak piece of information, IMO, with which to analyse Bruney’s performance. For one thing, it is a ratio (of something to something) with unidentified and highly subjective components. What is meant by the ’strength’ of each team, for example? That can be taken in any number of ways. Is it fair to judge Bruney’s performance wrt to the Yankee’s winning given their results with RISP this season?
Up until last night, he had appeared in 7 games, given up 2 hits, 3 walks and had struck out 10. He had a 0 ERA. How can that level of performance be linked to 3 losses?
And to show how vulnerable and misleading the stat is, as I see it, just look at the two pitchers who have the best ratings – Mo and Joba. They are more then likely only called in when the Yankees have the lead, so of course the ‘probability of a win’ is higher for them.
Jennifer – I was totally screaming that at the TV that night too…if the point is to win why were we not just bunting our way into the bullpen!
eh, what can you do about it now – but i did think about it when they were running on Jorge with the lead on Sunday and again when that guy asked the queston on Neyer’s chat.
Chris the funny thing w/ Gonzo is that it must have clicked through VWL
prior to the winter league from 04′ – 07′ in 1613 ABs he only struck out 192 times, so he was putting the ball in play and also drew 108 BB
as soon a he went to VWL it clicked .341 (43-for-126) with 24 R, 7 doubles, 2 triples, 4 HR and 16 RBI in 34 games, those are respectable numbers in a league where Miguel Cabrera had a .375 AVG (9-for-24) in the regular season, then 10-for-22 in the finals to put Aragua in the Caribbean Series.
i don’t think anyone is diagreeing with neyer – it is a flashback to the lack of bunting against bloody sox back in the ALCS
SJ44
Moellar is gone as soon as either Jorge or Jose are well enough to catch.
Alby gone (?) when Joba comes back.
And someone else has to leave for Shelley to return. Could it be Wilson?
“He is by far the most talented, close to major league ready arm they have. Whether they want to use him as a long man or as a short man he can contribute to the pen and should do so. He’s 25 and already throws 4 pitches. There’s not a lot he needs to work on for development.”
Think Horne or Ohlendorf replaces Joba as 8th inning guy?
Re: Bruney – last night, I blame Moeller. While the pitcher can say ‘no’, I doubt Bruney’s the type. He’s not Mo.
His win expectancy looks horrid after yesterday, definitely. How about prior to yesterday? He had a bad appearance on Saturday.
I use him in at least one more high leverage situation – with Posada or Molina as catcher – if he fails bad, I’ve seen enough.
SoS,
Touche. But Schilling’s not as easy-going as Damon.
BTW, check out this preview by Tom Singer. It’s hilarious with lots of pop-Yankee-Red Sox culture.
Did you guys know that the first pitch is going to be thrown in outer space?
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080415&content_id=2529764&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb
Rishi
Did we even bunt once on him in that game? To this day it still annoys me!! As does when Joe put Jeff Weaver in, in a tie game only to watch him give up a homerun and we lose the game.
In the WS you are playing for tomorrow. YOu don’t win today, there might not be a game tomorrow. Plus we had Mo on the bench! I know you normally don’t use your closer on the road in a tie game. But when the Alt is JEFF WEAVER YOU DO!!!
“IMO, Bruney, Farnsworth and Betemit won’t finish the year as Yankees. At some point, a comination of their collective ineffectiveness and better internal options, will end their careers in pinstripes.”
Agreed on this one. Bruney can be send to AAA. See if you can get a marginal prospect and some salary eating from the Braves for Farnsworth. Send Betemit to the Giants or some such for an ok prospect.
Ideally after they have a stretch of success – when Betemit comes back, use him a handful of times, if he puts together some HRs, his stock might rise enough to get something (anything) for him.
Jennifer – I have no idea – the baseball season ended in September for me that year…
I was watching in Dallas with friends (from Kansas and Texas) and told them during game 1 the RS were going to win in 7 – no one believed. Until the very last game no one believed me and now they are always asking my opinion on what I think teams are going to do. There is no way to script a better story than the way they won in 2004 and it still irritates me (plus I am having a very annoying work day and all these memories are coming back and now I have to hurt someone
)…
Ugh – I think a champioship this year is a great way to send out the old stadium and wash away those memories
jennifer:
(Sorry about being Mr. Spellcheck)
BTW, it’s called a “frieze” but I recall a discussion somewhere that it’s really a “facade.”
Now that will tell you how my slowly day is going.
Haven’t seen Gonzalez’s enough to really make a call. But if the Yanks like him as a backup, they could go without Duncan and keep Betemit and Ensberg.
Then, they could have a viable LH and RH bat off the bench and a back middle infielder. They would still have a bunch of young guys on the team (Hughes, Kennedy, Chamberlain, Gonzalez, Cabrera, Cano, + some young relievers). Maybe they could “sell high” on Duncan – now or at the deadline.
“And to show how vulnerable and misleading the stat is, as I see it, just look at the two pitchers who have the best ratings – Mo and Joba. They are more then likely only called in when the Yankees have the lead, so of course the ‘probability of a win’ is higher for them.”
Backbench,
I don’t know what to tell you. I agree that there are a ton of useless metrics in baseball and new ones coming out all the time win expectancy is not one of them.
The methods they use to calculate that statistic are actually very, very common in statistics as a whole. It’s not a particularly complicated or esoteric method at all.
But what you wrote above is incorrect. That I can tell you.
In that stat when Mo comes in say in the bottom of the ninth with no outs and no runners on winning say 3-1 he is only compared in that situation to other pitchers who come into the same situation – ninth no outs and no runners on winning 3-1.
If Joba comes in with the lead 4-2 with runners on 1st and 3rd with no outs he’s only compared to other pitchers who enter the game in the same situation.
And if Bruney comes into a game winning 7-4 with one man one and no outs he’s compared to other pitchers who are in that situation. He’s compared to how many pitchers blow that lead or hold that lead.
This is possible because BP compiles data on every out that in every game that is played.
So the stat is not misleading at all. It’s just difficult to think of the actions of an individual performance impacting a teams probability of winning or losing.
Whether the team is winning or losing at them time is controlled for in their analysis.
This is not just bogus math or fancy statistics that are misleading. It’s really not and I’m generally very critical of sabermetric methods in baseball because much of it is garbage in and garbage out statistics.
But this is not one of them.
Incidentally, Schilling said he would never pitch for the Yankees, after saying that he would never pitch for the Red Sox and wanted to play for the Yankees.
So you see, the guy is 99% BS and the other 99% ego.
If Gonzalez doesn’t get sent back to AAA, where does he play with the Yankees? Will he get enough playing time to stay effective? Or would he be better off playing every day in Scranton?
The same of course applies for Betemit, but I wonder if the more experienced guy might handle the utility role a bit better.
From Philliesnation.com…
Speculation on trading Ryan Howard and what a possible package in return would consist of…
A good read, I guess. I wouldn’t give up the kids for a guy who’ll strike out over 150 times and be a full time DH in two – three years…
“Which Teams Fit The Profile
When seeking trading partners for Howard, you have to start in the American League, and with teams that can afford a potential long-term deal equaling $150M. There are some NL possibilities. These teams are:
New York Yankees
The obvious perfect partner. Their current 1B/DH, Jason Giambi, is in the last year of his monster deal, and he’s been horrific at the plate. They could pair Howard in the middle of the lineup with the game’s best righty, Alex Rodriguez. Howard would become a face of New York and gain even more endorsement deals.
Who we could get in return: RHP Ian Kennedy, OF Austin Jackson, RHP Chris Britton, RHP David Robertson, 3B Marcos Vechionacci.”
Interesting… BUT IMO, no thanks.
I will admit there are many days that I cant stand to hear MMD and I just have it on in the office as background noise on the TV.BUT I really really really do not need to hear them talk about socio-economics of the inner city kid and why he doesnt play baseball, because it is a game that kids dont like because they have to stand around.
It is bad enough that they dont know a lot about baseball to begin with but you have got to be kidding me if I start to take anything out of their mouths seriously when it comes to this.
And as another P.S., I never wanted Schilling on the Yankees anyway. So his most recent comments about not playing for the Yankees just made me laugh. (As if, Kurt.)
murphydog
I really was thanking you.
I wasn’t being a smart –
Betemit doesn’t even make contact, he strikes out all the time. Its the same as the bullpen do you have a lefty for saying that you have a lefty in the pen. Or do you go with the best pitchers righty or lefty. Do we keep betemit around cause he is a left handed? Or do we go with the best players. I’m not high on betemit at all, and i don’t think many people are.
Definitions:
frieze: a decorative, often carved, band, as around the top of a wall.
facade: the front of a building, especially an imposing or decorative one; a superficial appearance; illusion.
For the decorative piece encircling the stadium, I would use “frieze.”
Also on this Jackie Robinson day I would suggest anyone who can watch the great documentary that was done on the Brooklyn Dodgers on HBO. I know that you can still find it on HBO in Demand. It as most HBO docs was very well done, I certainly learned a lot.
“As does when Joe put Jeff Weaver in, in a tie game only to watch him give up a homerun and we lose the game”
People forget that Weaver had a rocking chair bottom of the 11th in that game, retiring Derek Lee, Lowell and Conine. It was a gamble by Torre, but with 8,9 and 1 coming up in the 12th and Mo likely available for only 1 inning (he had a 2 inning save the night before), I can’t kill him on that one. Yanks croaked themselves by getting nothing with the bases drunk and one out in the 11th.
Chris NY……….Thats funny stuff…Johnny “the plane, the plane” Damon seems like he can’t get his tiny fingers around the ball or something, its weird. Its like a little kid throwing a softball.
I’d make that deal tomorrow, and pay for the plane fares of everyone concerned, if that would get me Ryan Howard.
I can’t even imagine the Phillies are thinking about trading him, let alone for that package.
Sounds like the writer had too much time on his hands and decided to write nonsense.
If you are GM of the Yankees, and that was on the table for Howard, and you didn’t make that deal, that’s a fireable offense, IMO.
Wilson strikes out way to much for my liking. I’ve been saying it since last year. He is all or nothing.
Yeah… but doesn’t Howard go against everything the world of on-base % stands for?
I saw the link for it at mlbtraderumors.com. Pretty good read, sees Yankees, Orioles, Giants as top suitors, IF Howard was avail…
GIANT ‘IF’….
When schilling made that comment before signing his new deal with the sox last year, why is it that not one reporter had the stones to say, “hey Curt, have the Yankees actually expressed interest?”
or at least the same sentence without “actually,” would still prove the point.
Just for the record people, I will not date Heidi Klum.
(just kidding Heidi, call me)
CB…
I will defer to you on this. I do believe that if how you interpret the stats is correct, i.e.,
“If Joba comes in with the lead 4-2 with runners on 1st and 3rd with no outs he’s only compared to other pitchers who enter the game in the same situation.”
Then we are dealing with a remarkably small sample size to date.
I just have a hard time getting my feeble brain around the fact that Bruney, who had a 0 ERA up until last night and who, I believe, had not let an inherited runner score (only two hits allowed) could possibly have a negative rating on that stat.
And that his rating is worse that KF, who we have seen blow leads.
mel,
In no way was i trying to say to bring Schilling to the bronx. It just funny how these guys immediately come out and say no to New York. Like they are affraid what kind of heat they would take throughout the season in Boston.We dont need another broken down pitcher. Trying to rid ourselves of one by season end. No thank you Curt.
At the same time i cant blame the Sox fans for booing Damon in his first game back in Boston. Money shouldnt be everything. What happened to rivalries. Hated rivalries. Its just between the fans now. Its too bad how times have changed. Thats why i respect Pettitte(possibly in our family tree) that much more. He came out and said that he would never sign with Boston and closed that door immediately. Where he could have let them drive up his prise. He’s what a true Yankee is all about. Where Bernie used Boston to drive up the price. Its all about the money.
Betemit does strike out a lot. But over the long run he is a better player than he has shown so far this year. He has a lifetime OPS+ of 110 vs. RHP. Its not all bad to have a guy who is above league average against righties on the bench.
The Yankees fan in me will take that deal in a NY minute
The Phillies fan in me will personally run our GM and owner out of town. If the owners of the Phillies think the fans gave it to Ed Wade badly if they ever made a deal like that I can only imagine what fans would do
“If you are GM of the Yankees, and that was on the table for Howard, and you didn’t make that deal, that’s a fireable offense, IMO.”
True. Someone in Philly should have been fired for keeping Howard in the minors so long. You realize he’s 10 days younger than Adam Dunn, but has less than half the number of MLB AB’s that Dunn has??? Truly a shame.
If the Yanks go after Mark Teixiera this offseason then there is no room for Shelly (unless he really wants to be a bench guy for years). Think the Yanks will sell high?
BUT I really really really do not need to hear them talk about socio-economics of the inner city kid and why he doesnt play baseball, because it is a game that kids dont like because they have to stand around.
————-
I’m from “the inner city” and I can’t stand when people say that stuff. It is true that the affordability of baseball gear is an issue, but the REAL reason why baseball isn’t played is because of lack of community baseball organizations in poor nabes and a lack of space. It has nothing to do with kids being impatient. I grew up in Harlem and played baseball, but did it outside of my neighborhood because there were very few open spaces in uptown where we could play the game. Also the leagues were borough and city-wide so I can understand how many kids don’t know about the various teams and leagues that are out there.
But this is what makes me sick about MMD and their ilk: since they don’t bother to go north of 110th St. they don’t realize that baseball is coming back thanks to organizations like R.B.I. (Reviving Baseball in the Inner city) that get resources from the MLB and other community groups. In fact RBI is opening a charter school in Harlem that focuses on baseball training and sports education. So whatever social & economic barriers that radio talkies claim prevent black and brown kids from playing the game, they’re definitely being broken down. Unfortunately Fatso & Fruit Loops haven’t gotten the memo.
Russell, I’m not sure Shelly is high enough to make it worth trading him away this year to plan for next year. If we think he’s got a place on the team THIS year, why would we trade him?
If we make a late trade for Tex this year, different story. Did Atlanta never extend his contract? He’s still a FA after this year?
“Think the Yanks will sell high?”
Just what exactly do you think a 28 year old career minor leaguer who can’t field a position but has a sparkling personality brings you?
“And that his rating is worse that KF, who we have seen blow leads.”
Part of it is that the stat takes into account when you give up a run – it’s a context based stat.
So if you’re team is losing 7-5 in the ninth and you give up a home run (as Farnsy did) it penalizes you less than if you give up a home run when you’re team is up 7-4 in the seventh to surrender a lead (as Bruney did).
The stat really penalizes a relief pitcher for blowing a lead or for putting men on base who go on to score in situations where the game is close.
On the sample size issue – they use prior years data to come up with their expected runs allowed in those different situations.
To me this is a useful stat because relief pitching is all about context. That’s why the save statistic is sort of bogus – doesn’t take context into play at all.
Is a save that you get when you pitch the 9th up 4-1 the same as a 5 out save you get when you enter the game 4-3 in the eighth? No, not at all.
Tex or Ryan Howard? Howard has a better bat, Tex is much better defensively. Both would require similar money, but Tex just costs you a draft pick.
Anyone know if Miranda is hitting?
“Fatso & Fruit Loops” – truly the greatest (and most appropriate) nicknames ever uttered.
I would make that Howard deal in a heartbeat.
Rishi and Jennifer,
Please dont bring up 2004. It makes my stomach turn.
I had a poll this winter- If you could change one of these two outcomes. Which would it be?
a.losing to Boston in 04
b.losing to the D backs in the ninth inning in 01
I still cant choose between the two.
thisguy:
I understand that Longoria is a good hitter, but you don’t feed him a straight fastball in his wheel house. He is a rookie, playing in his third game, who has shown earlier that he can hit for monster power. Can’t just give him a gimme especially with 2 strikes. Certainly not in the zone like Bruney did.
A, hands down. We would have swept the Cardinals to win the WS just like boston did, and we wouldn’t have been linked to the greatest upset in sports history.
At the same time, the ‘01 defeat changed everything. Up to that point, I truly did not think that Yankee team could ever lose. They always found a way to win, until that day.
KD:
Miranda hitting .195 (8 for 41) and slugging .268. On the bright side, he’s walked 9 times while striking out only 4.
Chris, yea I believe Tex is a free-agent-to-be at the end of this season still.
“Just what exactly do you think a 28 year old career minor leaguer who can’t field a position but has a sparkling personality brings you?”
Marte! And a whole lotta love.
So we have a problem with C.C. weight but not Howard? He might be the next Ortiz. Meaning he’s too big to play the field. Unless your looking at him as a dh.
“I had a poll this winter- If you could change one of these two outcomes. Which would it be?
a.losing to Boston in 04
b.losing to the D backs in the ninth inning in 01
I still cant choose between the two.”
a
If weight is a concern for any player, put it in their contract like the Bears did for The Fridge.
If I may use lawyer speak – “Paragraph 9 – “Player” shall not become a tub-o-lard.”
The reason i cant choose between the two is
1. If we beat boston. They dont win the title and i believe we do. Who knows if boston might have moved in another direction and not won last year as well.
2. If we beat AZ. That would be the first time anyone has won 4 championships in a row since the A’s in the 70’s.
SoS… I would give anything for Red Sox fans to continue to be as miserable as they were before 2004. Winning 4 in a row isn’t as satisfying as shoving a sock in the mouthes of THOUSANDS of trolls.
SOS 27:
A’s only won 3 in a row in the early 70’s. 72-74. They lost in the ALCS in ‘75.
Still, sos, 4 in a row has been done, doesn’t set a record… LOSING 4 in a row after being up 3-0 sets a record that no-one wants.
Plus, like you said, would have kept the curse alive a little longer.
“Winning 4 in a row isn’t as satisfying as shoving a sock in the mouthes of THOUSANDS of trolls.”
It also stops those trolls from multiplying like poor Gizmo in Gremlins. Ever since ‘04, Red Sux Nation is the biggest bandwagon going.
I choose (A) AND (B)!
It’s fantasy anyway, right??
Russell,
lol.Now your the prototypical Yankee fan i like to see. The other day people were actually wondering who they should root for in the Tigers/red sox game. I couldnt believe my eyes. Yankee fan of 2 teams. Yanks and anyone vs. sox. Period.
Fred,
Thanks for the info. They were talking about it during that series. Must of MISS-HEARD. More of a reason to win it then.
Yeah.. gotta say Russell, would rather have lost in 01 and won in 04, even if they lost to the Cards in 07.
To not have to live through and bear witness to, everyday, all the ‘Red Sox are a Dynasty’ crap up here in the Red Neck backyard of Red Sox Nation (Maine), and still have the mental edge over these ‘fans of baseball’, would be priceless…
Instead, of chanting ‘1918′, now I hear chants of ‘2000′ and ‘last cen-tu-ry’….
Chris-tub-o-lard.†and Gizmo in the same day. Hillarious!!
Nice example. They were Gizmo’s before they won and became Gremlins after.
Doreen,
Why am i not surprised.
S.o.S.27
That one is tough. 2001 it was almost like we were destined to win, with the great comebacks and all.
2004 I still don’t believe it.
Ohhh… And Id much rather have Tex’s above average bat and exceptional defense at 1B long term than Howard’s exceptional bat and average defense/eventual DH…
But thats just me…
I think I agree on Tex over Howard, but I also may pay too little attention to the NL to really grasp how good Howard is.
One thing is for sure though, DH or not, the Sox would be no-where without big sloppi. So if Howard is that good and that clutch, would be hard to put Tex over him.
“Yankee fan of 2 teams. Yanks and anyone vs. sox. Period.”
I might be shunned for saying this but I took Sox over Mets. The only thing more satisfying to me more than watching the Sox lose (and their fans cry) is proving to my girlfriend that the Mets are the kings of AAAA.
As for the Tex vs Howard issue I would take Tex. Better all around player though he will cost more.
“Ever since ‘04, Red Sux Nation is the biggest bandwagon going.”
To be fair, the Yanks have had something of a bandwagon fan base of late too. As recently as 1995 they averaged 23,700 for home games and before 1997 they had drawn 2.5 million fans in a season ONCE in their illustrious history. They finally hit 3 million in 1999 and now are selling 50,000 tix a game. Lot of loyalty among Yankees fans but a lot of flavor of the month types too.
CB and SJ,
I see where both of you guys are coming from with regards to Bruney and Farnsworth. Obviously Farnsworth has been given plenty of shots and he has failed at every turn so I don’t really care what happens with him. Bruney, on the other hand, should be given another shot.
No matter what you guys say it is pretty apparent to most people that Bruney has pitched well this season (other than last night). He has limited the walks, struck out a lot of guys and generally hasn’t given up many hits. Last night was obviously a disaster and it felt like a callback to last season where he would throw as hard as he could right down the middle. Other than that though he’s been very good.
CB I appreciate you brought up the win expectancy stat, it sounds very interesting. I still think you are overlooking his actual performances which have been very good.
Let’s put it this way, if Bruney hadn’t given up those 2 HR’s last night would you guys be talking about getting rid of him? The answer is, no, you wouldn’t. I’ve seen both of you (SJ and CB) preach about not jumping to conclusions based on one bad performance so now I’m asking the same thing.
You guys both make a good point with regards to Bruney’s past performance but it seems like Bruney has really tried hard to improve himself. Other than last night he has been throwing strikes, mixing his pitches more and not trying to throw the ball too hard. I’m not saying he’s going to be an amazing pitcher, just that we should wait and see if his new approach works and not jump all over him because of one bad game.
Seriously, if my arm was being twisted, I would choose 2004. 2001 was disappointing, and like Jennifer said, the way things were unfolding, it sure seemed like it was destined to go the Yankees way. But 2004 was demoralizing. Even if they did not go on to sweep the Cardinals, on paper it looked good for them to win a world series that year.
See, but then you can say, well, if they won in 2001 it was a definite World Series victory, while in 2004, you never know what could have happened after beating the RS. In 2003, they (and the fans) expended so much energy in defeating the Red Sox to win the AL pennant, that the World Series seemed like an afterthought. I know I was not that disappointed in 2003, because I felt beating the Red Sox was somehow the bigger feat.
“To be fair, the Yanks have had something of a bandwagon fan base of late too.”
True, but at least we were a true Dynasty to make that happen. The instant the Red Sox won in ‘04 it became a fad to be Red Sox fans because they were the ultimate underdog despite the fact that they spend plenty of money themselves…
So, what I’m trying to say with regard to 2004, is that it would have been a similar situation to 2003 – the Yankees were expected to easily defeat the Marlins and did not, so you can’t jump to the conclusion that they would have swept the Cardinals.
Still, it was no fun being 3 up and then losing 4, so I’d choose that option for re-writing history.
True enough Chris. Little different dynamic because of the size of the respective parks, but the Sox attendance spiked a little when Pedro Martinez was picked up and then again in 2003.
Bandwagon jumping happens most when things are going good. These two organizations are living proof.
Fredo the main problem they had with bringing Ryan Howard up was a first baseman named Jim Tome,but that is a whole other issue.
I also think attendence isn’t the only way to look at the bandwagon thing. I’m talking more about traveling the country and all of a sudden seeing people everywhere wearing Red Sox hats. You always see Yankee hats everywhere, just like the Dallas Cowboys have fans everywhere. But since ‘04, it’s become “cool” to wear a Sox hat and act like you’re chearing for the underdog, when in fact they had been a very good second place team for years and spent plenty of money of their own to stay that good.
Its not just last night with Bruney Patrick.
Its Saturday too. Remember, his 0-2 hit to Youk allowed the 4th (winning run) to score and he entire body of work as a Yankee.
Relief pitchers that give up 4 inherited runs in 3 games aren’t what your are looking for on your roster.
To say, “if he didn’t give up 2 HR’s last night, you wouldn’t want him gone”, is the same as saying if the Yankees won more game in 2004, they would have beaten the Red Sox.
The bottom line is, Bruney did give up 2 HR’s and almost blew the game, and the Yankees (sadly) didn’t win one more game in 2004.
The guy’s career WHIP is 1.6. For a relief pitcher, that’s beyond awful.
Its not just last night with me. I didn’t even think he deserved to make the team over Scott Patterson this year.
He just isn’t a good relief pitcher. At some point, the Yankees need to realize that and cut bait.
The sooner the better for my tastes.
There is no such thing as “jumping on the bandwagon.”
Fans who out of nowhere become Sox fans when they are winning are just confused.
Fans who out of nowhere become Yank fans when they are winning have just been enlightened.
That’s all.
Gayle:
Yeah, I know Thome was who was blocking him Phils were in a similar spot with Polanco/Utley, causing Utley to not get regular at bats for a little while. I’m merely suggesting that could have been managed a little better.
“Fans who out of nowhere become Yank fans when they are winning have just been enlightened.”
Priceless.
SJ,
With my comment of “if he didn’t give up 2 HR’s last night, you wouldn’t want him gone†I was referring to CB’s argument that Bruney has been bad this year even before last night. Also you misquoted me, it’s fair that you guys want him gone but if you brought it up before last night nobody would buy into it.
Bruney has no doubt changed his approach as a pitcher. Obviously he lost a ton of weight, he isn’t throwing as hard, throwing more sliders and more strikes. Obviously last night he lapsed into his prior habit of being a “thrower” rather than a “pitcher”. Up until last night though he has looked like a drastically different pitcher than the rest of his career. Considering the work and effort he has put into changing himself I say we should give him another chance. So far the results have been mixed but encouraging. Give it another month before you start preaching he should be in AAA or DFA’d.
“Yeah… but doesn’t Howard go against everything the world of on-base % stands for?”
Howard has a career .107 IsoD. I do not understand this question at all. Ryan Howard is a perfect TTO Guy(three true outcomes), he will either walk, strike out, or homer.
If he has truly changed as a pitcher, he can go to AAA and prove it.
Shelley took a bullet for the team and did just that and he was much more impressive as a player than Bruney was last year and this spring.
Bruney really hasn’t though, at least pitching-wise, has he? In the last two games, his only non-soft landing games of the year, he went right back to his bad habits with poor results.
I commend him for losing weight. That doesn’t mean he earned a roster spot.
He’s on the team because he has a guaranteed contract. Not because he outperformed Scott Patterson, for example, this spring.
I’d like to see 30 innings of solid AAA work from him before I’m convinced he can be a contributor.
I certainly don’t want him blowing games for the Yankees, which, at least 40% of the time this year, he has been in a position to do.
Just not the kind of odds I want from relief pitchers.
So does that mean you are now convinced Igawa can be a good starter for us? He has torn up AAA so according to your logic you should be convinced he can be a contributor.
Bruney has pitched well for the Yankees thus far and whether you like it or not Girardi will give him a chance to prove it hasn’t been a fluke.
That’s just it, he hasn’t pitched well so far. He has been average at best and awful his last two outings.
A 40% failure rate for a relief pitcher isn’t good. That’s his rate so far this year.
What has Bruney done in his career as a Yankee to engender such loyalty? For his career, he averages 7 walks and 8 hits per 9 innings of work. His career numbers are worse than Farnsworth’s.
Girardi also said Farnsworth had a “clean slate”. Until, of course, Farnsworth imploded several times.
Now he is relegated to pitching games in which they are trailing.
The guy isn’t a good pitcher. If Girardi wants to give him more chances, no skin off my back.
I will tell you though, if he pitches like he has his last two outings another 2 or 3 more times, let’s see how many chances he gets in games after that.
If he continues his stuggles in non-soft landing games, he won’t be around much longer.
Just because Girardi supports him publicly, doesn’t mean he has a long leash. Just look at Farnsworth for proof of that.
“He’s on the team because he has a guaranteed contract. Not because he outperformed Scott Patterson, for example, this spring.”
Heh, Heh, that statement could be meant for every other Yankee relief pitcher other than Mo Rivera this Spring.
Aren’t you being a little hasty in judging Bruney, SJ? Aren’t you the one who castigated those Yankee fans on this blog for being too judgemental of Mussina and Cano and others after 9 Baseball games?
Now Bruney has one bad outing after the 14th Game in April …and its time to get rid of him?
He’s 26 years old, has very very good stuff and still has time to learn where to locate it. If the Yankee coaches (you speak so highly of) have enough confidence to keep him on the 25-man roster, then he must have some upside, don’t you think??
murph – Reading your comments about “Wonderful Life” triggered my memory of that blog post, which I think is a very clever but deliberately perverse take on the film… perhaps something Bondy would write if he were a film critic.
Anyway, I agree with your take on Bondy, and enjoy reading your posts generally. Your eye-opening perspective on McNamee was especially memorable. Cheers.
“Please excuse my shameless self promotion, but…
We recently did an interview with author Richard Bradley who wrote a book about the ‘78 playoff game between the Red Sox and Yankees. That was the Bucky Dent homerun game for those who are unfamiliar. Anyway, we’re really excited about it, and hope some of yall will take a look.
http://respectjetersgangster.blogspot.com
…Shameless self promotion over.”
I’m so late getting back to this thread, I know no one will see this. But that was enjoyable interview, and it sounds like an interesting book: a very in-depth take on a single memorable game.