Joba has looked great in the bullpen - now get him out of there and into the rotation
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- April
- 29
Joba Chamberlain has been terrific as Mariano Rivera’s set-up man, hasn’t he? In 11.1 innings has allowed two runs on eight hits while striking out 14.
To some, this is further proof that he should remain in the bullpen. I know many of the Yankees feel that way. Most of them, actually. It’s also a popular theory on the radio and among many of my fellow sportswriters.
To me, it’s further proof that he needs to be in the rotation. It’s a waste to limit a young pitcher with that much talent to 70 innings a season. The sooner the Yankees develop Chamberlain into a 200-inning monster, the better off they will be.
The Red Sox won the World Series last season with a $1 million Japanese lefty setting up their closer. The Cardinals used assorted guys in 2006. The ‘05 White Sox? They usually went to the immortal Neal Cotts.
You win championships with starting pitching. Postseason series are defined by starters, not by set-up men.
The Yankees caught a huge break. They took a chance on an oft-injured kid from Nebraska and he turned into solid gold. You don’t mess with this gift, you give him the ball and make him your ace.
Did you see The Natural? Of course you did. When Roy Hobbs started hitting all those homers, Pop Fisher didn’t say, “Hmm, this kid would make a heck of a pinch hitter.” No, they put him in the lineup.
Now I’m not saying Mike Mussina needs to run into a fence like Bump Bailey. But the Moose isn’t going to be there forever and they’ll need a starter next season, if not sooner.
That’s Joba. It’s worth whatever short-term pain that comes with the transition to make this kid a starter.
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on Tuesday, April 29th, 2008 at 1:18 am by Peter Abraham.
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Hallelujah!!!
You guys ever reckon there should be padding on them walls? Oh wait, I’m dead.
I think a lot of the argument for keeping him as a reliever is that he could be a potential heir apparent to Rivera. If Rivera were 5 or 10 years younger I hardly think it would be an issue. You completely ignore that point.
i don’t think it’s so much an argument for leaving joba as the set up man…i think it’s important to have a lights out closer. yankee fans have been spoiled rotten by rivera and are not ready to accept losing close games because of their closer.
just as rivera was the set up man for…ugh, what’s his name?…as mo developed, that’s what fans and some sports writers want joba to be. we all know mo’s getting old and can’t keep doing what he’s doing. we need to plug that hole now, before it starts gaping.
if not joba, there needs to be somebody else…soonish
here I thought the element for the BP was a SP w/ no stamina past 4-5 innings, plus stuff but 2nd and 3rd time is not effective in his pitches to batters…. excuse me for that mistake now I know dominant stamina and plus stuff w/ a heater that generates more groundouts than flyballs belongs in the pen.. it took me awhile, why isn’t the MLB getting w/ this movement to think what Zambrano and Woods could do for the Cubs as a SU to CL combo !!! CURSE IS OVER !
So I’m going to put all my faith in… Farnsworth? Ohlendorf? Albaladejo? Britton? Traber? Hawkins?
I mean, it’s not like I believe in wasting 100 more (potential) innings of Joba, but you saw what’s happened the past few days. Yankees fans would be killing themselves left and right while watching these guys try to hold a lead.
You guys ever reckon there should be some sort of, I don’t know, padding on them walls?
AND I forgot my other point… it’s not like you’re going to see Joba throwing 97+ into the 6th, 7th inning. He’s going to have a slower fastball, and he needs to work on his other pitches. Do you want to set him up for some kind of failure while trying to work out the kinks with a new, different type of repertoire?
I agree completely, he needs to reach his inning limits this season and that will mean coming out of the bullpen. The success is hard to ignore in the set-up role but he needs to get stretched out at a point where he can hit 140 innings so he can go to 170 next year. If he allows 2 runs every 11.1 innings that’s an era of 1.58 over 170 innings. Who wouldn’t want a starter with that kind of ability?! You’d have to be an idiot.
Even amazing starters, CY winners, don’t allow
“AND I forgot my other point… it’s not like you’re going to see Joba throwing 97+ into the 6th, 7th inning. He’s going to have a slower fastball, and he needs to work on his other pitches. Do you want to set him up for some kind of failure while trying to work out the kinks with a new, different type of repertoire?”
would you like the article too…
pshhhh who wrote that one.. and what level was he talking about? I’m not doubting that ability, but it freaks me out when I see a pitcher throwing his fastball consistently at a certain speed and all of a sudden he adds a few mph.. I’m scared he’ll blow his arm out that way.
quick lets get Beckett to the setup role before he does the same !!
Shhhhhh, don’t set Joba up for failure. Maybe he should retire now, while he’s still on top.
Ha. Ha. Ha. We mention all these great pitchers and them moving to SU/CL roles… but that’s funny because they’re filling a need for their clubs as SPs that they need right now. If the Yankees didnt have JC as a SU guy, we’d probably be at about 10-17. You can’t doubt that, and you cant say that;s not a bad place to be, compared with where we’re at now. He;s filling a need that needs to be filled more desperately than that of an iffy starting rotation
so that’s why Santana’s a failure, see what we should have done was stick him in the BP Chamberlain for the 7th, Santana in the 8th to Mo in the 9th the game is now a 5 inning game. Forget about an ACE starter , ACE BULLPEN OVER ALL !
I don’t mean aahhh he might fail; I don’t even have the same faith in him that I do in established guys because I know everyone exoects him to pitch like he did last year in the BP - but obviously that’s not happening. I mean that he could (potentially) be screwing us over when we need to win games while trying to figure out some of the pitches he;ll need as a starting pitcher
Starting pitching is more important to getting wins than having a closer or set up man. While it can shorten the game to have lights out pitching for the last two innings, the simple fact remains that most games are lost in the early innings.
When you keep the batters from scoring runs in the early part of the game you also get them pressing more in the later innings.
Would you keep a Santana in the bull pen to act as a set up man? Or a Pedro? Or a young Clemens? Or does their dominance in the starter role mean much more to the outcome of those games?
I think too many of the people who watch baseball today don’t have much of a clue about the game. At least those who want Joba to remain in the 8th inning role have tons of anti-Yankee talking heads agreeing with them.
RayBlay, how on earth do you know what the Yanks’ record would be if Joba was a starting pitcher?
Your scanario is faulty, it assumes that Joba doesn’t add anything to the rotation and it assumes that the Yanks lose every game that Joba didn’t pitch out of the bullpen.
Poppycock.
“Would you keep a Santana in the bull pen to act as a set up man? Or a Pedro? Or a young Clemens?”
WELL OFCOURSE I WOULD !, YOU CLEARLY DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT YOUR TALKING ABOUT
RayBlay, your scenario is baseless. It assumes that Joba doesn’t add anything to the team pitching in the rotation and it assumes that the Yanks lose every game in which he didn’t come out of the bullpen. But we have no way of knowing any of that.
Poppycock.
Pete, why are you making this an issue again? Yankee Management has said that he’s going to be a starter, but because of his innings limit, he needs to start the year in the bullpen. They’re not going to increase his annual inning total by more than 30 innings, so either he sits and twiddles his thumbs or he pitches in relief. Remember a guy named Santana? That’s how he broke into the majors and he’s doing pretty good. Just ignore all the people that are saying he needs to stay in the bullpen. Hank and Cashman know he’s going to be a starter, that’s all that matters.
Yankees are seemingly bulging at the seams with relief pitching at every level of their system. Put Joba in the rotation. Chances are, at least some of the guys just waiting down at AAA will be effective. There’s a lot of talent there.
If Wang does his thing, if Joba does his thing, Andy does his thing, Hughes does what he’s capable of, and Moose is the Moose of the last two games, then it’s not critical to have someone of Joba’s caliber set up. You know what I mean?
2007 motto was “GET IN THE TRUCK”
2008’s motto will be known as “GET IN THE BULLPEN”
So now Peter agree with Hank? That’s interesting.
Didn’t Cashman & Girardi said they have a plan in place? Why rush Joba now?
From what I’ve seen over the past few weeks, these games are being lost in the mid-innings, when the young pitchers/Moose get tired or just lose it and the opposing teams start to rally. And I know, with Joba having to come in in the seventh/eighth, he’s not even available then, anyway (which is why this whole system shouldn’t be so structured like this, but besides that;) BUT having solid middle relief so that you can save a starting pitcher saved whenever you want him to be is probably even more important. Is this weirdly logical or totally nonsensical? If it’s the latter, I think I need to go to sleep already.
“Brandon (supporting the new movement “Alex being Alex”)
April 29th, 2008 at 1:46 am
“Would you keep a Santana in the bull pen to act as a set up man? Or a Pedro? Or a young Clemens?”
WELL OFCOURSE I WOULD !, YOU CLEARLY DO NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT YOUR TALKING ABOUT”
Brandon- if you know so much about baseball, What are you doing here in a blog? shouldn’t you be a scout or something?
NOOOOO!
Leave Joba in the pen. In fact, put Wang in to set up the set up guy and call up Igawa to take his spot in the rotation.
Print up the World Series Tickets that way!!!!!
I even thought this Bruney injury and all these relief pitcher issues have been a blessing in disguise, and I still do, so that we can see the rest of the arms we can potentially use. But you can’t get rid of the core and only reliable part of your bullpen until you have another proven entity that won’t let you down. You;re just willing to risk everything to have six starters?
Bob, you’re using the same hypocritical logic to destroy your rotation as you are to destroy your bullpen. Yeah, we realized Okajima came out of nowhere last year… but i think you;re all forgetting something — he was effective!!
“Brandon- if you know so much about baseball, What are you doing here in a blog? shouldn’t you be a scout or something?”
am I ruining your fantasy of screaming “Shout At The Devil” every 8th inning.
I love that we still have some level of sanity on this blog. For the people wanting Joba to remain a setup man, you’re insane. Closers are overrated. Mariano was so good at his job that it inflated the value of closers. It’s much harder to keep a team from scoring with 2 on in the 7th than pitching the last inning with a 2 or 3 run lead. Give me a break. Middle relievers usually throw higher leverage innings than closers. This is nonsense spewed out by people who don’t understand the statistical side of the game.
But…..what about TEH HEIR TO MO!!11!!!one!!!11!
“am I ruining your fantasy of screaming “Shout At The Devil” every 8th inning.”
Actually, you are.
I’ve completely turned around my opinion on this…. I know many of you have read my comments about he needs to be in the bullpen, most important outs etc. etc.
Look at the stats when we’re winning after 6 vs. losing after 6…. if we can’t get to the 8th inning with a lead then there’s no point in having Joba out there. Farnsworth has been pitching great and can fill in for the 8th inning, Bruney was having a great start as well and they would’ve been perfect for the bridge to Mo.
As Pete said, the quicker he becomes a 200 inning monster, the quicker we start winning the 1-0, 2-1 playoff games instead of being the team we’ve been the last couple years in the postseason that was losing those same games.
Welcome to reality, JoeT
it’s good to be awake Chris lol
though I do like that he goes out for an inning and can just let it go, but a starter is where he has to be, no doubt about it.
Chris - I hope you realize that’s exactly my point: you can’t just leave the late innings open to who knows what type of guy they can come up with (if any). You need a rock there, someone solid to rely on toward the end of the game. That’s the highest leverage situation. Closing, you need the right mentality, but if you have it it’s a breeze. You can allow a run every other time out but probably get 80 percent of your saves, if not more, and have a 4.50 ERA. I’m not saying setting up is tough, I’m saying getting through those innings without a “so-called” set-up guy is pretty tough
I guess Santana missed his calling. Had he had the sense to remain in the bullpen he could have gotten a huge contract this year. Now he will have to just settle for starter’s pay. I feel so badly for his kids, knowing that their Dad could have really been something instead of just a starter.
SAVE CANO AND SEND HIM TO SCRANTON/WILKES.
Someone please friggin tell me who you’re plugging into for these spots. Should we just make Joba our official 5-7 inning pitcher? Because using him only every fifth day makes it hard to imagine what goes on during the other 4
If Brian Cashman was doing his job I wold love to see JOba as a Starter.But with not one pitcher in the pen not named MO who can pitch every week without giving up a walk or run.We sadly need him there.I’m sorry Fransworth,Ohlendorff and Britton suck.
CAshman needs a set-up man at least in a trade by June.Because come post-season time everybody here would rather have JOba as a set-up man then Fransworth….wait I forgot anybody can do MO jobs an get three outs.
Remember, MoBoy and Rayblay say: “Set-up men are the most important players in baseball.”
Hey Ray,
Who are you plugging into these starter spots? You know, the ones we usually lose 2 out of 5 times a week. Joba can’t help them with his one-inning superpowers then, can he?
Way to misquote a person. Try responding to what I actually said. I;ve thrown out more than a few arguments that nobody’s bothered to refute
If a starter goes into the 7th or 8th inning, then the real leverage against the other team has been done. Farnsworth might actually be getting something together. There are other arms working on getting a chance to be in the majors. I would think that had Girardi not over worked Ohlendorf this year with pitching multiple innings, he would have been viewed much higher than he is now.
Also, if you have an effective starter it save the bullpen arms so they aren’t falling off and you have some options. Unlike they are now. Remember how effective the bullpen was for the first couple of weeks? Due to over use the wheels have fallen off. Give them more of a break due to better starting pitching - IE: A starter going deeper than say the 2nd or 3rd inning every other game, and I bet you will see improved results from them.
MoBoy, you crack me up! Farnsworth! You keep saying it! Farnsworth! Hahahahahaha!
Chris the Great-
THis isn’t the 70’s.Pitchers aren’t going 8 to 9 innings a game anymore.THe Bullpen is nowadays as important as the rotation in this ERa.
FUnny how people continue to talk about these set-up men yet don’t tell you who.
Again can anyone dominate the 6th and 7th inning like JOba.Anybody can get lucky and pitch in the 8th but whats the best 1-2 punch in baseball in the pen.
If people didn’t lose 2/5 times a week their teams would be admired for centuries as unbeatable teams. Get real. If you have no faith in Moose, Ian, Phil, than try reading the scouting reports on them, or watching them pitch, and realize that they’re not going to suck all season nearly as much as they do right now.
MoBoy, pop quiz: Which World Series winner in the past decade has had a set-up man like Joba?
MoBoy don’t you love how people just can’t respond… There are so many more “ifs” involved in their scenarios that it almost frightens me
Nick: what was Okajima’s ERA most of last year?
What is so hard to grasp here? I want Joba in the rotation more than anybody. I really do. I just don’t think it’s worth the risk making the transition this year. Wait until next year. I look at what happened to Liriano, and question if moving him to the rotation mid-year is a good idea. I don’t think it is. I think Moose will do just fine.
Nick in SF-
Can you tell what you mean.Because Patterson isn’t the set-up man anytime soon.YOu get the idea I want Joba in the pen but I don’t want him there.WE need him there.
Don’t worry I crack up when FRansworth,Bruney,Ohlendorff walk,give up runs everyday.Hahahahahaha!
RayBlay: Has anyone projected Okajima to he a top tier starter?
“Get real”
RayBlay, its a rotation for a reason. Wang, Pettitte and sometimes Mussina are doing well enough add Joba as a third possible who can hold the runs down and that is effective.
Or don’t you pay any attention to the problems with the rotation and see that its due to the short outings from Hughes and Kennedy that has torn up the bullpen? Most pitchers work better with a pattern of rest between outings. Its the biggest concern the Red Sox have over Papplebon being their closer, and why they sometimes have to use someone else to close the game. Its why Farnsworth usually is better when he isn’t worked back to back days, and why we saw the downfall of Procter.
I was just saying to my family tonight, I love Farnsworth. Yes, I booed him like heck last year. But since it really doesn’t matter that much how he does as long as we have a solid setup guy right now, I just (literally) laugh and enjoy his pitching. It doesn’t faze me when he almost blows games, because he’s not actually blowing games!
Nick: has anyone projected Papelbon to be a solid starter? hmmm
It;s the middle relief guys that are being torn up. No set up guys or closers are pitching to much like this because it is superhuman for a team to win that much. But minus the blowout wins, the setup/closer guys pitcch in all the tight wins and nail down everything. It all evens out, it really does. That;s why this system;s existed for a few decades.
Did you consider Joba the savior to our bullpen before 07 started? No, you didn’t. Why couldn’t it happen again this year with someone you’re not expecting? Horne and Sanchez, when they get healthy again, are good candidates. When Melancon gets more innings under his belt, he’s a candidate. I could keep going, mainly because I read scouting reports and watch games. You don’t use a guy with 4 pitches, who’s always been a starter, in the bullpen. Especially just because “you have no one else to fill that role.” It’s one inning, I’ll take my chances.
RayBlay-
I don’t mind because the games everyday speak itself of the lack of bullpen depth.THis is why you can’t have three prospects anchor the rotation.HUghes and Kennedy can be great but look at the games they are pitchimg it’s gonna take awhile and Hughes is as great a pitching PRospEct as JOba.
Let JOba pitch in the pen until at least we get a true good reliever.WE have the talent.WE just need to adjust for awhile.
RayBlay, I apologize, I think you’ve won this argument. Joba must never start. In fact, I think he should be given half-eaten sandwiches for lunch, lest he get the idea in the head that he’s allowed to start things. It would just set him up for failure.
While I would love to entertain the fantasies of you comedians all night long, I do have to be getting to bed. Good night and good luck, and I hope you all have a lovely start to your tomorrows. Wait, no! Not start! Um, I hope you can muddle through most of the say and then have a lovely setup. That’s the key.
Great post Peter.
The longer Chamberlain stays in the bullpen, the more pressure will be on Cashman to leave him there.
We should have signed a bunch of cheap relievers from Japan with funky deliveries and hoped that one panned out.
I love how Joel Zumaya’s 1.94 ERA won that WS single handedly for Detroi……oh wait a minute he was in the bullpen, that’s right Yadi and David Ecstein went gansta on Detroit’s a..
Mike, exactly how would you be able to put Joba into the rotation after leaving him in the pen for a full season? He would have less innings on his arm meaning there would be even more limitations to the number of appearances he could make.
You don’t build your pitching staff from the bullpen. Your pitching is built from the starters. Bullpen pitchers are generally those who couldn’t quite cut it as starters. You also don’t trade for bullpen help and have it work out all that well. As we have seen over and over again.
Just out of curiosity for those who want Chamberlain as a reliever/closer:
What kind of impact did Mariano Rivera have in the 2006 and 2007 playoffs?
You’ve had the best closer in the game from 2001 to 2007. Zero Championships. Tom Hanks cracked the Da Vinci Code faster than the Yankees figured out they need dominating starting pitchers to succeed.
Look at the salaries of starters compared to set-up men and closers. Obviously, the majority of baseball doesn’t value them as much as Ray does.
I wish that people (yes, you, peter, among others) who are advocating for joba’s joining the rotation, would offer some intelligent response to the question of who would set-up Mo in lieu of Joba?
Farnsworth? Sure, if he pitched most of the time like he pitched tonight against the Indians.
But he doesn’t pitch like that most of the time.
Bruney? Uhhhh. . .
Albaladejo?
Ohlendorf?
It surely IS painful to have to use Joba in this (relatively) minor role. But none of the guys listed above inspires any kind of confidence. The Yankees still need a lefty–they probably need TWO lefties, like they had on all their other championship teams!!!!–
and, with their combination of young (IPK, Hughes) and old pitching (Mussina), they absolutely need a ++ bullpen. I just don’t see very many complete games this season for the Yankees’ pitching staff.
Patrick Bateman just kicked you in the mouth.
“Just out of curiosity for those who want Chamberlain as a reliever/closer:
What kind of impact did Mariano Rivera have in the 2006 and 2007 playoffs?
You’ve had the best closer in the game from 2001 to 2007. Zero Championships. Tom Hanks cracked the Da Vinci Code faster than the Yankees figured out they need dominating starting pitchers to succeed.”
BEST POST OF THE NIGHT
Chris the Great -
You are right but again most of those guys aren’t healthy.Why do you think Pavano is a bust.He has good stuff but he just gets injuried all the time.Yes there many guys who can set-up in the minors.But again Joba is not the future closer but he is the only guy “right now”.Everybody you mentioned are gonna take a few months.THats why you need JOba “now”.
People want Joba in the rotation now.Which will kill many great starts by the Yankees.Look at the REd Sox in ‘06.THey had nobody but Papelbon.And they overused him even in non-save situations and fell apart.You want MO going two innings every save.C’mon lets fix the problem before we go making crazy moves.
I’ll take an awesome starter and a guy who gives up 1 run every time he pitches the 8th inning. I bet that team still wins the majority of their games.
STILL THE BEST POST OF THE NIGHT !
now I will go to be..wooops I will be relief to go sleep ….And close the night. You all have a great nigh…8th inning. Remember Don’t start anything
There is still hope yet for Kyle Farnsworth with his new cutter.
I think he can do great things with 2-3 effective pitches and i think he will become the 8th inning guy when JOba leaves.
The larger problem right now is that the bats aren’t doing much, which puts a larger pressure on the pitching staff.
Wang had to pitch a shutout to get that last win.
As to needing to have a lefty reliever, why? If a pitcher is good he can get lefties and righties out. The lefty specialist has not been working out very well, and frankly I think its because the lefties have seen so many of them. While there is value in having lefty relievers, its more due to the different look and adjustments that need to be made.
The Yankees aren’t going to pitch Mo 2 innings for every save situation. The bigger part of the problem that the Yankees need to get straightened out is to create better run differential, that way it limits the damage that a weaker pen will do.
I don’t expect Molina to mash the ball, but Ensburg, Giambi, Cano have to start getting the ball in play more. Jeter has to stop hitting so many double play balls. Where is the bunting attempts? How many games do we see lead off doubles and no runs score?
Girardi also needs to stop with the creative lineups and start being more consistant with where certain players are going to be. The constant shuffle isn’t helping to get the bats going.
For all those who say we can’t live without Joba in the 8th inning, you do realize we did live without him for a long time. He’s only been on this roster since last August. Less than 2 months of last season.
Know what our record was in 2007 with a lead going into the 8th inning? 81-4. Thats including a “Joba-free” bullpen.
2006 84-5 in that situation
2005 77-2
2004 82-5
1998 93-1
What that tells me is that even without a “lights out” Nelson/Stanton/Rivera combo, we still only lost 4 more games last season than the Juggernaut 1998 team. Whats going down is the opportunities with a lead going into the 8th. Which says our starters aren’t good.
Every other team in the league doesn’t have an ace starting pitcher in the set up role. We don’t need one either. We’ve got plenty of career bullpen arms in the minors waiting to explode. Hopefully Cox and Melancon will make people forget Joba even spent any time in the bullpen.
Pete,
Putting aside the debate of whether or not Joba should be a starter, I was wondering if there’s ever been a precedent for such a thing…
Can you name any pitchers that have started their careers in the bullpen, enjoyed success there and then switched to the starting rotation where they enjoyed equal or similar success?
More importantly, how about in the same season? That is, do you know of any pitcher/pitchers who started the season in the bullpen, then successfully switched mid season to the starting rotation?
To all of the people crying, “Who will be the set-up man?” Having a designated set-up man is not smart bullpen management. The best relievers should be used in the highest leverage situations, regardless of what inning it is, and regardless of their title. Even without Joba, our bullpen is not terrible and there is plenty of depth in AAA.
Joba has the endurance to be a starter. He has been successful as a starter before in the minors and is projected as a dominant starter. Dominant starters are more valuable than dominant relievers. It’s very simple - Joba should pitch as many innings as possible (given his innings cap).
DYNASTY,
Check out Chad Billingsley in 2007 and Johan Santana in 2003 on baseball-reference.com. Those are just off the top of my head.
What about formina a whole new role for Mr. Joba. He needs to have his innings stretched to strengthen his arm and prepare him to be in the rotation right? So why dont we get him in for 3 innings everytime our back of the rotation guys pitch? Split up IPK and Hughes and then bring him in to hold down whatever is needed for 3 innings? that sounds ridiculous eh
Mo started off as a starter in 1995. He ended the year with a 84 OPS+ and of WHIP slightly over 1.5. In 1996, out of the BP, he had a 239 ERA+ and a WHIP under 1.00. I won’t say Mo was a ‘failed’ starter, but he was never expected to be ‘Joba’. Had Mo shown anywhere near the potential as a starter as Joba does, he would NOT have been moved to the BP.
Every once in a while, you have an exception to the rule, such as when Smoltz was moved to the BP. At the time, this was the best for his team. But guess what… Smoltz was back to starting a few seasons later.
Joba WILL be a Starter. The Yankees to not want to screw with his potential.
Joba WILL be a Starter. The Yankees to not want to screw with his potential.
Joba WILL be a Starter. The Yankees to not want to screw with his potential.
However… the Yankees DO want to make the PS this year.
So I believe the FO will walk a very fine line between getting the most team wins and developing Joba at the same time. My guess is the original plan was to transition Joba to the rotation around the ASB. This may have been pushed up if Moose had a double-digit ERA. But Moose is 3-3, has had 3 very decent starts, and I would be very happy if the guy we consider our WORST starter, continues to pitch as he had.
As of now, there is NO reason to push up the plan. Yes, Phil and IPK have underperformed, but we ain’t going nowhere anyway, if they don’t pitch at least league average. Furthermore, while I expect Joba to be a dominant starter eventually, like Phil and IPK, he MAY NOT be Koufax out of the shoot…. so thinking of him as our 2008 starting savior is a big mistake.
A 94-68 record is 26 games over .500. That’s:
8 wins over .500 for Wang.
8 wins over .500 for Andy.
5 wins over .500 for our #3, #4 and #5 combined
5 wins over .500 for our BP.
Over the course of the season, Phil, IPK and Joba don’t have to be great. Simply a little better then .500 each.
Cashman, Eiland and probably $1,000,000 worth of qualified personal have spend many, many hours looking at how to put together our pitching staff this year. And unlike our commenters here, that ain’t gonna pull a 180 after 27 games. I think Pete should continue to write and be snarky about Girardi and Giambi, I will continue to pick my nose, and the rest of us should trust the FO can do a better job managing our pitching staff then all the ‘great minds’ here at Lohud.
I am MUCH MUCH more concerned about ARod, Jetes, Posada, Cano and Giambi then I am about Joba. Short of posting a team ERA under 2, if our offense and defense doesn’t come together, we will all be crying in October.
P.S. I love Shelly Duncan, but he is NOT an answer. At BEST, he will be a little better in the field then Giambi (although he will never scoop as well) and possible outhit Giambi (which I personally doubt). So at his BEST, he may be an upgrade over Giambi… but a small one.
We never expected to have a TOP pitching staff. We went to the PS last year with at staff dead middle of the league. We would simply hope to be a little better this year. But this team will live and die with ARod, Jetes, Posada, Cano and Giambi.
Amen, Peter…..you are SPOT ON here….Thanks again for all the work that you do,,,you may be a smart arse…actually you ARE a smart arse,,,,but I am sure you are loved by many !
The talking heads on the ESPN game last night were talking about losing Joba for 3 weeks went he is sent down to “stretch him out” to become a starter. Why would the Yanks do that? If they want him to start with 3 innings and work himself up, why not slot him in with Mussina. Moose will almost never go more than 6, so Joba would pitch the same day as Moose. If Moose goes 5 (like last night, Joba goes 3 (to start), then the score will dictate who pitches the 9th. The next time through, Moose goes 5, then Joba goes 4. Next, Moose 4, Joba 5. I mean, if he’s going to become a starter, he’s going to take someone’s spot in the rotation, no?
By June/July Joba will be a starter. Farnsy(new cutter), Ross Ohlendorf, Dave Robertson, J.B.Cox, Humberto Sanchez, Jose Veras, Dellin Betance, Mark Melancon even Alan Horne are all coming along. A few of these guys will be ready to go later this year, about June/July…Geeeee, isn’t it funny that about the same time Joba goes to stater, these guys will be waiting to go? Cashman/Joe, are to dumb to have thought this up all by themselves. 27/08.
I’ve said that from the beginning and will continue to stand behind it. Chamberlain needs to start, and they need to start the process now or he won’t be ready when we REALLY need him.
“The Red Sox won the World Series last season with a $1 million Japanese lefty setting up their closer”
That’s half the story. The Red Sox also won the World Series because they had an effective Closer who was slated to be one of their main starters, but was moved to the Bullpen out of necessity.
Its the same with Joba. There has been no bridge to Mo Rivera since Tom Gordon’s first season in NY.
As a Setup man, Joba Chamberlain is a difference maker with the NY Yankees in 2008. He will NOT be that kind of “difference maker” as a starter in 2008.
Yes, his future is in the starting rotation. But until a reliable setup man is found…and the Yankees aspire to play in Post Season…..Joba is most valuable doing what he’s doing right now!
Pete -
Thanks for being the voice of reason on this blog concerning Joba Chamberlain.
I’m quite sure that he did not grow up playing baseball in Nebraska to be the ’set-up man for the Yankees’. They signed him as a starting pitcher and then changed their minds and put him in the bull pen.
If the Yankees don’t honor their committment to him as a starter, perhaps another team will make him their starter. Joba deserves to have the mound for more than an inning or two.
Hank Steinbrenner is right on this call.
“effective Closer who was slated to be one of their main starters”
He was NEVER as promising as Joba. He had a good FB, one other plus pitch, and mediocre stuff after that. Joba has THREE plus pitches and sits in the mid 90s. He also has shown the ability to continue to throw hard deep into his starts. 94-96 is plenty of FB. He doesn’t need to throw 98 all game…but he’s shown the ability to reach back for it even late in his start.
The Yanks need to spend May and June trying out guys like Ohlendorf, Veras, Albaladejo, Britton, perhaps Robertson, McCutchen and some of the rehabbers in the 7th and 8th innings.
It kind of worries me that basically the entire club house is telling Joba that they don’t want him in the rotation. It seems that it would be very difficult for him to really commit to the change when he knows that his entire team is against the idea. Having other palatable options that have shown the ability to succeed in high-leverage situations could help that.
“The talking heads on the ESPN game last night were talking about losing Joba for 3 weeks went he is sent down to “stretch him out” to become a starter. Why would the Yanks do that?”
Seriously. The dodgers stretched out a promising young pitcher in the majors JUST LAST YEAR. We just saw it happen, and just saw it work. What is it that they believe makes the Joba situation so very different?
I feel like this is Groundhog Day and we are reliving the same conversation over and over again. Joba is being pulled from the bullpen to become a starter……..but not NOW. If he’s placed in the rotation now, he’d have to be shut down near the end of the year due to innings caps.
I would also caution those who think that the kid is some kind of savior and that he’s going to be as dominant in the rotation as he is in the bullpen. Nevermind that starting is a different kind of beast, Joba is still a kid who has to, like Phil and Ian and any young pitcher, learn how to be a starter against the best hitters in the world. He’s going to have his growing pains, too. Still, I think by next year sometime, we are going to see why Joba and Phil are considered top-of-the-rotation starters.
whozat:
Here’s one of many Scouting Reports on Papelbon:
Good pitcher’s build with a live arm and solid delivery. Fastball has been clocked up to 95 mph, typically hitting the low-90s with great command. Very good slider and changeup, as well as a slurve curveball. All can be thrown for strikes, and Papelbon has improved his consistency with these pitches. Papelbon also added a splitter to his arsenal in the spring of 2005, after some tutoring from Curt Schilling. Looked to be moved to the starting rotation after the 2006 season, but in Spring Training 2007 Papelbon stated his desire to return to the closer’s role.
Please! No one compared Papelbon to Joba- but he IS excellent starter material. Just because he wears a Red Sox uniform, doesn’t make him any less talented. PLUS - he’s had effective starts at the MLB level. Joba has not.
barring injury Joba will be an excellent start someday. He’s not ready now.
RayBlay’s posts in this thread are instructive. They show exactly the kind of willful blindness to reason typical in people who want him in the pen.
RayBlay: “He’ll never throw 97 into the seventh inning.”
Scout: “I’ve seen him throw 98 in the seventh inning of a start.”
RayBlay: “Oh yeah well umm I don’t believe that will happen.”
This is the kind of thinking we’re dealing with.
“The dodgers stretched out a promising young pitcher in the majors JUST LAST YEAR”
The Dodgers also finished 4th in their Division with a .506 W-L Record. If the Yankees get to that stage - and hopefully they don’t - they also can afford to “stretch out”
their prospects too.
Stellar post Betsy!
You among a few others have got it. Stating pitchers of their AGE have to grow into the job. Very few start out winning at a great clip (Herb Score was one). I like to look at the bright side of things, in baseball one fails more than succeeds. 27/08.
Whenever Wang pitches a good game, this board fills with people praising him, and deservedly so. A great start lets the Yankees build a lead, never gives the other team a chance to get into the game, and conserves the pen. Wang’s consistency and ability to go deep into games has made him one of the team’s most valuable players.
If you are one of those people going on about how Wang is the greatest, think about how you would feel if the Yankees were able to get back-to-back strong starts from Wang and Joba on a regular basis.
Think how much stronger the Yankees would be in the playoffs if Wang and Joba were both starters. You simply can’t have enough strong starting pitching in the playoffs. A one-two punch goes a long way, especially in the ALDS. What is our one-two punch now?
I think a lot of fans (and possibly the Yankees themselves) overemphasize the importance of the pen because everyone hates a blown lead in late innings. It’s the most painful way to lose a game. But as Pete said, World Championship teams have patched together their pens with spare parts. Winning the Series with no-name starters is far more rare. It’s not that tough to find pitchers who can get by for an inning at a time. Not necessarily dominate like Joba, but get by. And the Yankees already have a huge advantage relief-wise with Rivera.
It’s fantastic to watch Joba and Rivera form an unbeatable tandem in the 8th and 9th. But it would be even better to watch Wang and Joba pitch back-to-back 7 inning starts. Especially in the playoffs.
Yes, Joba is a natural: a natural-born closer. Keep him in the pen.
Amen, Peter. Radio guys and some sportswriters, I’m not surprised they feel that way. It troubles me, though, that many Yankees feel that he should stay in the eighth. I guess they probably have more short-term goals than myself as a fan.
To me, the debate is not whether Joba should be a starter, but when he becomes a starter. Isn’t the reason why they kept him in the pen was to manage the # of innings he pitched?
In 2009, I want to see Chamberlain in the rotation.
But what’s best for 2008? I think having Chamberlain setting up Mo effectively shortens the game. I think it has benefitted Mo, who I belive has only pitched more than an inning once this year. (Could be wrong there…took a weeks vacation and could barely find a boxscore when I was away.)
And watching Farnsworth, Hawkins and even Ohlendorf work in the middle innings concerns me, to say the least.
I don’t think we’re at the point to move Joba into the rotation yet. Maybe that comes later this year; I think it depends on whether Mussina, Hughes and Kennedy pitch effectively.
I understand the argument that it’s better to have Joba pitch 200 innings rather than 70. But right now, Joba can influence the outcome of possibly 3-4 games a week, especailly considering that with the exception of Wang, they’re not getting as many innings from the starting rotation as they would like (a problem that seems to stretch back to 2004.)
Most importantly, when Joba is put in the rotation, they better find a better alternative to the 7th innings and 8th innings than what they have now.
Just some rough estimates for the difference between Joba as a starter and Joba as a reliever, compared to who would replace him in the role. I don’t think it’s fair to assume Joba will maintain a sub-2 ERA for a full season in the pen.
70 inning pitcher, 4.50 ERA - 35 runs allowed
70 inning pitcher, 2.00 ERA - 16 runs allowed
Difference: 19 runs per season
200 inning pitcher, 4.50 ERA - 100 runs allowed
200 inning pitcher, 3.50 ERA - 78 runs allowed
Difference: 22 runs per season
Now odds are the #5 pitcher getting bumped from the rotation would have an ERA a little higher than that, and if Joba lives up to expectations, he’ll probably beat a 3.5 ERA. Both factors make the runs saved as a starter go up.
I’m on the same page with you Pete. Francesca can drone on all he wants, but he has no clue.
“The Yankees caught a huge break. They took a chance on an oft-injured kid from Nebraska and he turned into solid gold. ”
i didn’t read the whole thread, so i don’t know if this was addressed, but i have to disagree with this characterization.
Joba was not a “huge break”.
Joba was selected because the Yankees looked at his injury history and thought “why does everyone think this guy is such an injury concern?? his injury history has been totally overblown”
they took him, sent him to Nardi to clean up his mechanics, and you know the rest.
OF COURSE, with every prospect there is *some* luck involved. no one is a sure thing.
but the Yankees knew what they were doing.
just wanted to make that point. i agree with everything else Pete wrote.
Several people have said, “Who is going to pitch the 8th inning if Joba doesn’t!?” My question would be, “Who is going to pitch 200 innings as a starter if Joba doesn’t?”
The yankees have a great pitcher in Joba and he can be utilized to throw 70-80 innings a season or he can be used to throw 200+ innings a season. The 8th and 9th innings aren’t magical; a pitcher still has to get 3 outs, the same as in the first inning. The Yankees have medicore pitchers in the bullpen and they have mediocre pitchers in the starting rotation so he will be an improvement in either area. Additionally, it is much easier to find an effective relief pitcher than it is to find an effective starting pitcher. Finally, Joba will cost the team very little money for several years and a good starter is more costly than a good reliever.
This isn’t even an argument in my mind. Anyone who thinks Joba should stay in the bullpen is either very stupid or knows very little about baseball. There is literally no legitimate argument that can be made in favor of keeping Joba in the pen.
Patrick:
“This isn’t even an argument in my mind. Anyone who thinks Joba should stay in the bullpen is either very stupid or knows very little about baseball. There is literally no legitimate argument that can be made in favor of keeping Joba in the pen.”
I agree completely - however this board is full of newcomers to the game, so don’t expect them to agree. They rarely even comment on the game, using this board as a Chat Room about school.
At least Pete is on the right side of this discussion.
“In 2009, I want to see Chamberlain in the rotation.”
“But what’s best for 2008? I think having Chamberlain setting up Mo effectively shortens the game.”
you can’t leave Joba in the pen all year and then have him in the 2009 rotation.
it’s hard to believe we are still debating this point.
How bad would it be to stick Joba in and have a 6 man rotation? The extra day off will help everyone in the rotation and allow them to go deeper in games. It will also give moose the rest he obviously needs at this point in his career. Plus, having 6 men in the rotation will help to limit the innings from hughes, kennedey, and joba. I think it sounds like a good idea.
“They signed him as a starting pitcher and then changed their minds and put him in the bull pen.”
No, they didn’t change their mind. He was rapidly approaching his innings limit as a starter, so, to solve TWO problems (limiting his innings AND help the varsity bullpen), they brought him up to relieve. It is only because he has been successful in that role that idiotic fans and sportswriters/radio hosts feel that the Yankees are best served by keeping him there.
Pete will be the first one to kill Farnsworth when he takes over Joba’s set-up role and starts blowing games left and right.
Take a controversial stance…get more clicks on the blog.
“How bad would it be to stick Joba in and have a 6 man rotation? The extra day off will help everyone in the rotation and allow them to go deeper in games.”
it’s not a bad idea in theory, but the problem is that you are wasting Wang and Pettitte.
those guys give you a legitimate chance to win almost every time they pitch, and pitching them every 6 days instead of every 5 would cost them about 5-6 starts each.
those 10-12 starts could be the difference.
is there a way to keep those 2 in rotation and rotate the other 4? maybe. that was something i proposed in the off-season.
but i could see how that would be hard for both Girardi and the starters, as it would be fairly chaotic.
i think the idea they had was best: use Moose as your 5th starter for half the year, then move Joba in. and Moose is making them look fairly smart for gambling on him.
“Take a controversial stance…get more clicks on the blog.”
considering the entire Yankee front office is committed to moving Joba into the rotation, this stance is hardly controversial at this point.
it’s only controversial if you are Mike Francessa.
“Please! No one compared Papelbon to Joba- but he IS excellent starter material. Just because he wears a Red Sox uniform, doesn’t make him any less talented. ”
last year in Spring Training, the Red Sox put Papelbon in the rotation. in his 3rd inning of work, his velocity consistently started dropping like a brick.
this is why he was moved back.
scouts have determined Joba will not have this problem.
apples and oranges.
Thought the Joba as a starter was already settled? He will go into the rotation when the time is right, June/July. He will have his ups and downs, as most all YOUNG pitchers do. But he will help the team greatly, after all he has 3+ pitches, not one or two as some starters have. I am looking forward to the time he starts, let’s see what he has.
For those of you wondering who will replace Joba…just pick a name, there are plenty of them in the Mil’s and in the BP now. All want the chance and will welcome the opportunity to show they can do the job. Stop worrying. 27/08.
Pete,
I see both sides to this Joba debate, but just some few thoughts:
1. Who knows what Joba will be, but lets say he reaches his potential at either starting or set-up/closing - who would you rather have Verlander or Papelbon?
2. The Yankees have stated that Hughes is suppose to be the #1 starter of the future (they basically have stated this by not trading him for Santana) - Wang is also showing he is more than a ace, he is a dominant ace. You have Kennedy, plus two or three kids in the minors, Andy can probably give another year or two (transition to 3-4-5 pitcher). You can pick up back end guys. My point 1-2 are set in theory.
3. You know what he has done as a set-up man, it is still a question if he can be a dominant starter.
3. Being a set-up/closer is a different type of skill, they don’t necessarily translate - Jim Palmer in a recent article stated, you can not pitch that hard for 6 innings plus, in addition you need more than two pitches. Remer Mo started his career as a starter, at which he did have the same success as he has as a closer
4. Mo - one can argue that he is the most important Yankee during the WS run, you could argue they may 1 to 2 less WS if he wasn’t on the team.
5. I am not saying waste him as a set-up man, over the next two years have him set-up and occasionally close, in Mo’s last year maybe swap the roles and have Joba close.
Either way I am happy to have Joba on our team
“Who knows what Joba will be, but lets say he reaches his potential at either starting or set-up/closing - who would you rather have Verlander or Papelbon?”
Verlander no question
“My point 1-2 are set in theory.”
You can never have enough good starting pitchers.
“You know what he has done as a set-up man, it is still a question if he can be a dominant starter.”
True but whats the harm in trying to maximize his potential?
“Being a set-up/closer is a different type of skill, they don’t necessarily translate - Jim Palmer in a recent article stated, you can not pitch that hard for 6 innings plus, in addition you need more than two pitches. Remer Mo started his career as a starter, at which he did have the same success as he has as a closer”
100% false, he CAN pitch that hard over 6 innings and he has 3 plus pitches with a fourth average pitch. Also Joba started his career as a starter not a reliever.
” Mo - one can argue that he is the most important Yankee during the WS run, you could argue they may 1 to 2 less WS if he wasn’t on the team.”
You could argue it, doens’t mean it’s true. He’s the best closer of all time and yet his value doesn’t even approach a good starting pitcher. Just look at last year, Rivera’s VORP was 22.4 while Wang’s was 48.5.
“I am not saying waste him as a set-up man, over the next two years have him set-up and occasionally close, in Mo’s last year maybe swap the roles and have Joba close.”
Joba as a closer is still a waste of his talent.
“4. Mo - one can argue that he is the most important Yankee during the WS run, you could argue they may 1 to 2 less WS if he wasn’t on the team.”
you can, but you’d be wrong.
Joba is great where he is. Yes he will have thrown in less innings when the season is over, but he will have helped win MORE GAMES. The chances of Joba securing a lead or tie are far greater than Farnsworth, Hawkings, and co trying to do the same.
There should be no debate here. Joba IS a starter. There is no reason to waste his talent in the bullpen for one inning at a time. Most games are lost when the other team rallies early on and builds momentum in which case our offense shuts down even more than they have. I would rather a great starter prevent this from happening than waiting to see if we hold a lead at a certain point late in the game to use our setup man.
When it comes to the postseason I would rather get a good 6-7 innings out of my starter than a good 5-6 innings from my bullpen. I just don’t get the logic of wasting a guy with 3 plus pitches and another 1 pitch in the works as a setup man.
Now let’s say Joba was called up and was not very good as the setup man. What would everyody be saying?
Probably things like:
-He sucks, send him back to the minors! Lots of work to be done.
Or how about:
-If he can’t handle one inning of work why is he a starter?
Well guess what, he was great as a setup. He basically used only two pitches last year in 24 innings of work with a 0.38 ERA. Yeah that means he’s got two more pitches. His satmina, his attitude, his mechanics, and his arsenal all point to a top of the line starter. When the time os right, Joba must be moved to the rotation this season.
hmmm
April 29th, 2008 at 10:08 am
“In 2009, I want to see Chamberlain in the rotation.”
“But what’s best for 2008? I think having Chamberlain setting up Mo effectively shortens the game.”
you can’t leave Joba in the pen all year and then have him in the 2009 rotation.
it’s hard to believe we are still debating this point.
____________________________________________
One, I didn’t say leave Joba in the pen all year. I did say that when Joba goes to rotation, whether it be later this year or next year, they need a better option to set up Mo than the current candidates.
Two, why can’t he pitch in relief this year and start next year?
Raj — You hit my feelings on it 100 percent. If Kennedy and Hughes are what the Yankees think they’re going to be, I’d rather have Joba as the closer in a few years than trying to find one.
hmmm — I could argue they might not win any WS without Rivera. There’s a good chance they don’t make the playoffs in ‘96 without Mo and from there everything changes drastically.
“Two, why can’t he pitch in relief this year and start next year?”
Innings limit. He is on a limit this year of 140 innings. As a relief pitcher he will get at most 90 innings. He must get to that 140 mark so that next year they can increase the limit to 170 or more. If he throws only 90 innings this season we will be in the same situation next year where his limit is only 140 and he’ll have to spend part of the year in the bullpen.
“You hit my feelings on it 100 percent. If Kennedy and Hughes are what the Yankees think they’re going to be, I’d rather have Joba as the closer in a few years than trying to find one.”
It’s much easier to find a closer than it is to find a #1 starter like Joba could potentially be. The tigers have Todd jones as a closer who sucks. Why don’t they transition Justin Verlander to closer? Following your logic, they should. Also what does Hughes and Kennedy have to do with Joba’s future? The Yankees need 5 starters, Hughes and Kennedy only fill two spots.
“hmmm — I could argue they might not win any WS without Rivera. There’s a good chance they don’t make the playoffs in ‘96 without Mo and from there everything changes drastically.”
You could argue that but you would have nothing substantive to back it up. Rivera is one of if not the best closer of all time. Yet he is still much less valuable than a good starting pitcher.
Patrick - using your argument, when Rivera became a dominant closer why did the Yankees not try him back as a starter - by your logic he is still much less valuable than a good (not great) starting pitcher
I think there is good if not great argument that he was VERY vital to the Yankees winning the WS four times
“Patrick - using your argument, when Rivera became a dominant closer why did the Yankees not try him back as a starter - ”
You are twisting my logic. Rivera was an okay starting pitcher before he was moved to closer. Joba is a fantastic starting pitcher with ace potential.
“by your logic he is still much less valuable than a good (not great) starting pitcher”
Yes this is true. Go look at VORP numbers for relief pitchers.
“I think there is good if not great argument that he was VERY vital to the Yankees winning the WS four times”
Lets put it this way, he was as vital as a closer can be. I’m not trying to downlplay Rivera’s skill as a closer but the fact is that closers and setup men are VASTLY overrated.
If you told me Joba as a starter would give the Yankees 10 years at 200 IP a year with a 4.00 ERA and Joba as a closer would give the Yanks 10 years at 2.00 ERA I’d pick Joba the starter. I expect him to be a lot better than 4.00 ERA, I’m just trying to prove a point.
Patrick,
I get the innings point. My point is that the transition doesn’t necessarily have to be this year.
I’ll take the bona fide ace anyday, and I think we all see Joba as that. My point is that the Yanks will need a bridge to Rivera, and Bridge Farnsworth, Hawkins and Ohlendorf are very shaky.
Whenever this happens, they need to get someone to fill the role that Joba is in right now, and it will be very hard to take Joba out of this role until a viable replacement is found.
“hmmm — I could argue they might not win any WS without Rivera. There’s a good chance they don’t make the playoffs in ‘96 without Mo and from there everything changes drastically.”
actually, this is a good point about 1996.
using a reliever in THAT type of pattern, 2 inning/high leverage situations probably CAN get close to the value of a starter.
i won’t argue that a Mariano 1996-type pitcher isn’t insanely valuable.
he threw 107+ innings that year. it’s one of the greatest relief seasons of all time.
BUT…that’s not the argument here b/c i don’t think ANYONE would advocate in 2008 using Joba for 108 innings. it simply wouldn’t happen.
the argument is really about 75 innings vs. 200+ innings.
so, score a point to you on 1996, but i REALLY believe the 1998-1999 yankees would have won the WS even with someone else closing. that’s how good those teams were.
The Monarch, i was mostly talking about the innings.
he needs to build his innings this year.
Almost all of our losses this year can be blamed on the offense or starting pitching. NOT on the bullpen. If you dont think so go look on baseball-reference.com yourself.
Leaving joba in the shouldn’t even be considered.
If you leave joba in the pen all year he will be going backwards in his devolpment as a starter. Joba has 4 plus pitches and he is only using two of them in the pen. I dont think it’s even a question finding someone to pitch well for 6-8 innings is 10x harder then finding someone to pitch well for 1.
keepin joba as the set up is good for now, its a 6 inning game, and who the hell r we gonna put there?? hawkins couldn’t get luis sojo out.. and farsnworth has good stuff, but just aint working.. plus this takes away mariano’s 2 inning saves.. we should’ve got danny haren in the offseason..
I think everyone has great points about both sides of this argument, and to be honest if he can dominate as a starter (which is easier said then done) as the way he is a set-up man then I can why people think he should be a starter, but that is part of my point it is not that simple to assume he will be a dominate starter, but we know he is a dominant reliever.
Patrick’s point of
If you told me Joba as a starter would give the Yankees 10 years at 200 IP a year with a 4.00 ERA and Joba as a closer would give the Yanks 10 years at 2.00 ERA I’d pick Joba the starter. I expect him to be a lot better than 4.00 ERA, I’m just trying to prove a point.
I would take the closer in that situation, you told me he has 10 years of 3.50 ERA then it would make a lot more sense but still debatable in my mind. I am still a firm believer that a dominant reliever is more valuable then a good starter, if the argument is dominant closer vs dominant ace different discussion.
Everyone is concentrating on innings, but at as starter he will affect 35 games and as a reliever he will affect 70 games, that has to count for something and in the playoffs he could affect all most every game if needed.
Also, for the people that say keep him as a reliever this year and then throw him as a starter next year, I am not sure that is makes sense either. The reason the Yankees are stating that he is not starting this year is he has an innings limit of 140 innings this year. So if he pitches as a reliever he will get 70 innings this year, and next year he pitches as a starter won’t he have an innings limit of 140 (someone may want to correct me on that if I am wrong). So if he is going to be a starter then need to get him to 140 innings this year regardless of how they do it so next year he can be at 170-180 innings.
Thought the Joba as a starter was already settled? He will go into the rotation when the time is right, June/July. He will have his ups and downs, as most all YOUNG pitchers do. But he will help the team greatly, after all he has 3+ pitches, not one or two as some starters have. Mo was NOT a good starter, he had trouble getting through the order 2/3 times, he only used 1+ pitches. I am looking forward to the time Joba starts, let’s see what he has.
For those of you wondering who will replace Joba…just pick a name, there are plenty of them in the Mil’s and in the BP now; Farnsy, Ohlendorf Sanchez, Horne, Robertson, J.B. Cox and others. All want the chance and will welcome the opportunity to show they can do the job. Stop worrying. 27/08.
There is one opportunity to make Joba a starter which is this season. If they don’t do it now, they’ll have a lot of difficulty stretching him out to get enough innings under his belt where he can throw 200 in a season.
Joba has always been a starting pitcher except for last fall. That’s what he is. He has the makeup and talent to be a top tier starting pitcher. You have to explore that option. If he fails, he can go back to the bullpen. The reverse isn’t true.
There aren’t many relievers who have had the long careers that Rivera or Hoffman have had. Try and make a list. Compare that to the number of above average starting pitchers of the last ten years. The Yankees stand to benefit more over the long haul from Joba if he is in the rotation.
Again, if be fails, the bullpen is always there, but the reverse isn’t true.
The argument that it is better to have him as a reliever because he will affect 70 games is just stupid. If he pitches 35 games as a starter he will have a MUCH MUCH larger affect on that game then he would for one inning every 2-3 days.
You better believe that Mo was one of the most instrumental parts in the Yankee Championship run of 1996-2000, Good (not great) starting pitching, clutch hitting with RISP, good defense, and a great bullpen featuring solid setup (Stanton/Nelson/Mendoza/Lloyd and…the Greatest closer of all time.
THAT’s why every successful Team since the Millenium has attempted to copy the NY Yankee Blueprint of the 1996-2001 Era.
You think its not as valuable to come in “cold” and save a 1-run or 2-run game when the unhbelievable pressure of a Pennant, ALDS, ALSC or World Series victory is on the line??? Ask guys like Ralph Terry, Donnie Moore, Mitch Williams, Byung-Hyun Kim and many many others how easy it is to accomplish!
Byung-hyun kim was a terrible closer and he still won a world series in 2001 after the yankees were dominated by schilling and randy.
No one’s saying it’s not impressive to come into a game in relief and pitch a scoreless inning. It’s just less valuable on any empirical level.
And speaking of the playoffs, how can you not possibly agree that dominant starting pitching is the most valuable strength a team can have? If a starter puts his own team out of the game, a pen full of relievers as good as Joba won’t help you anymore. The damage is already done. Ideally, the game should be out of reach in the Yankees’ favor before relievers even enter into the equation. The best way to reach that result is to have as many dominant starting pitchers as possible.
The bottom line is that a reliever’s usefulness depends on factors completely outside of his control: the effectiveness of his starter and his offense. A starter’s effectiveness has a much bigger impact on an individual game than a reliever. Any reliever.
LathamJoe,
The Yankees have continued to have Mariano Rivera pitching for them since 2000 and haven’t won a World Series. You can’t protect a lead if you don’t have a lead. The Yankees weak starting pitching has been a main contributor to that.
McBain:
Without Rivera, the Yankees arguably would not have reached (a) the ALDS, (b) the ALCS, or (c) the World Series
(2001 and 2003) since 2000.
Of course starting piching is important, no one is minimizing that. Great bullpens are just as important for a Championship Team’s success. In today’s MLB, very rarely does your ace starter go more than 7 or 8 innings. That’s why “shortening the Game” has been of utmost importance to GMs and Managers since the Yankees’ success .
Everyone saying how valuable closers are.. There are stats that disprove your points. Go look up VORP (value over replacement player)
Yeah, throw the “Sabermetrics” argument out there. The same statheads that can “prove” that Derek Jeter is the worst defensive shortsop in MLB. Yep, that’s why he’ll go to the Hall of Fame while 95% of his peers will watch the Induction Ceremony!
Sabermetrics has its place in baseball - only is used judiciously.
For me, I’d rather watch a player’s performance than study his stats.
That’s “if used judiciously”.
So please tell me, who then would pitch the 8th inning? As of right now if the yanks have a lead after the seventh inning, you can put a check mark in the win column. They have to good a thing going to put Joba in the rotation right now, IMHO and barring any major injuries to any of our SP’s, he should stay there for the rest of this season. Have a good evening.
LathamJoe,
No one is minimizing the importance of the bullpen. But this is a real chicken before the egg argument. A strong reliever is only important when there is something to protect. In order for that reliever to have an opportunity, there must be a lead.
I’ll go back to my original point, which is the best use of Joba’s talents over the course of his career. Relievers have much shorter careers than Rivera and Hoffman. One can’t assume that Joba will be the exception and not the rule. The Yankees, along with every other major league team, have had a merry-go-round of relievers.
Even in the case of Rivera, he’s thrown over the course of his career (Starting in 1995) 964.0 innings. Andy Pettitte started in 1995 as well and since then has thrown 2558.1 innings. That’s just under three times as many innings.
If you have a pitcher of Joba’s potential caliber who could be with your organization for 12 years, is your team better off having him throw 964 innings or 2558?
“IF” the Yankees have a lead in the 7th inning. Right now, the Yankees are a .500 team with a great late inning tandem. Why are they only .500? Because their starting pitching is not good.
When Joba was out with his father, it turned out that his absence didnt hurt the Yankees too much because there wasn’t much opportunity for him to help in a ballgame. That’s five or six games where arguably the best pitcher on the team had no use.
If he were a starter, he could have effected 10 - 16 innings of those games if he pitched twice. One scenario he has no use, another he’s effecting two games for a long stretch. Which is more valuable?
LathamJoe, regarding sabermetrics…
Baseball is a game of probability. Batting average is simply a number that tells you the percentage chance of a batter getting a hit in each at bat. That is probability.
Sabermetrics does the same exact thing. It’s all about calculating probability and overall effectiveness, only instead of using something like batting average, it will also calculate walks and HBP, because those instances create useful baserunners as well.
You don’t have to like or even use sabermetrics. But all it is is an extension of the cruder statistics that have been in place for over a hundred years. If you’re willing to think a player with a .315 BA is better than a player with a .250 BA, you’re halfway there.
I read these bullpen arguments and just shake my head in disbelief. I wonder what type of person is on the other end typing that nonsense. And Derek Jeter is just awful in the field. How anyone can argue this is amazing to me as well.
For those of you who think that our bullpen has caused so many loses and starting pitching is so unimportant:
Every single one of our loses this year (besides the two rain outs which kennedy didnt start and hughes came out after two innnings) have been a direct result of either bad starting pitching or lack of offense (other teams good starting pitching)
13 loses
2 were the rain games
8 The starting pitcher gave up more runs then our offense scored
3 The amount of runs givin up by starting pitching and runs scored by the offense were equal so the bullpen has blown 3 games.
Vs Boston april 17 Alba gave up the 2 deciding runs
Vs Chicago April 24 hawkins gave up 1 run Joba gave up the walk off hit
Vs Cleveland April 26 Ohlendorf gave up the walk off run after 3 previous scoreless bullpen innings
Let’s see people continue to talk about “shortening the game,” as Hughes can’t get out of the 4th again. This is ridiculous. He needs to go back down and get this worked out.
you n eed starting pitcfhing to win.the yankees are using bjoba less than 50 percent of the time because of their starting pitching.what good is it for joba to look great and mo to have 50 saves if they win 88 games?you have to be solid 1-3 and a decent 4th to win and the yankees are solid 1-2 and are not even close to being the best 1-2.if they had a true ace,wang number 2,pettitte number 3 they would be fine.how can you have a 209 million dollar payroll and be that bad?
it is like having tiger woods as you’re golf partner and using him on holes 15-18 instead of 1-14 or having arod pinch hit.27 outs in a game,i would rather have joba for 21 outs instead of 3-6.someone always comes along for setup or closer you just have to keep putting guys in untill you find one.in the majors you need 1-3 solid just like the red sox who are looking very tough now,dice k is pitching lights out,buchholz and lester are also looking good.they have 4 real good starters and wakefield.i don’t like the way this is turning out.
LathamJoe you are wrong.the red sox won because they had solid pitching 1-3,and 3 more excellent starters and a true ace so the need for pap in the rotation was not there and cleveland still almost beat them.starting pitching is more important then the pen.the sox were 6 deep,the yankees were 2- 3 deep.the only way you put a pitcher with joba’s talent in the pen is if injury was a concern,not enough pitches or he couldn’t handle starting and that isn’t the case.they drafted him as a starter,brought him up as a starter,gave him a signing bonus as a starter and they have no ace,moose and pettite will be gone next year and after that all they have is wang,they will need 4 starters and hughes and kennedy are not a certainty.they might get an ace if they are lucky but where will they get 4 starters without paying or giving up the farm system?they have alabadejo,melancon,horne,sanchez,brackman,betances,cox,bruney,one of them will make it i guarantee.we will get a look at sanchez i hope this year and brtackman could of went number one if not for tj surgery,brackman will be in the mix next year and was clocked if you believe at 101 miles an hr,betances in 2009 or 2010 so hopefully we have pitchers in the minors that will make it along with hughes and kennedy but we better get our act together because if lester and buchholz keep pitching well they will be tough to beat and they are producing position players by the boatloads.the yankees are going in the right direction but it is painfull to watch them being behind the red sox as far as producing talent,ellsbury,pedroia,lowrie and many more plus more pitching on the way,scary.the good thing is that the yankees have better and more pitching talent then the sox and very good catching prospect and another great catching prospect in motero who on the 20-80 power scale is ranked at an 80.hughes needs to figure out his mechanics and develop a cutter,have mo teach it to him,he is only using his fasball and curve so the hitters are sitting on it,no guessing involved.