Betemit minor-league rehab update
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- May
- 5
Here’s a press release the Yankees sent out today:
With today’s day off for the Yankees, here is a minor league update on Wilson Betemit’s rehab …
The Scranton-Wilkes Barre Yankees defeated the Durham Bulls, 9-5, in Sunday’s game. Wilson Betemit was 1-for-3 with a double and 2BB, playing 1B. Collectively, he is 5-for-13 (.385) with 3R, 4 doubles, 2 RBI and 3 BB in four games played with Scranton/WB (2-3B, 1-1B, 1-DH), batting leadoff.
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Suffice it to say, there hasn’t been much interest in Betemit’s rehab. There’s little doubt they will activate him at some point. But isn’t Alberto Gonzalez a more useful player?
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on Monday, May 5th, 2008 at 7:17 pm by Peter Abraham.
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Peter Abraham
I agree I like Gonzalez alot he plays a great 2nd,3rd and short…he doesnt have the pop that Betmit has but so what. I like that when he is up he doesnt try to do to much he lets the AB come to him. Plus he can lay down a bunt and has better speed.
Gonzalez is more useful, but with the way they’ve been dropping DL’d of injuries, Betemit will come in useful
I thought we were trading him for Dougie…and throw Marte in.
Sorry, didn’t see the new thread.
Someone on the previous thread had noted a story saying that Giambi and Cano had been the two unluckiest players so far this season because only 12% of Giambi’s contact was resulting in hits and only 16% of Cano’s contact were turning into hits. The story said that 30% of contact should turn into hits…
“Sportsline has a piece today in which it shows stats indicating that Giambi and Cano are the two unluckiest hitters in baseball.”
Neither Giambi nor Cano are as “unlucky” as they may appear to be from their batting average of balls in play (BABIP).
BABIP is a relatively new statistic and there’s a lot of misunderstanding about it.
It was first developed to look at pitchers and how lucky and unlucky pitchers were.
In general for most pitchers BABIP is a pretty good index for two things – how good the defense is behind the pitcher and how “lucky/ unlucky” the pitcher is.
BAPIP has now come to be used more and more for hitters – again with the idea to look at how “lucky” the hitter has been.
For hitters however it’s not that clear cut. There is definitely some component of skill to what a hitters BABIP is. For instance, ARod hits the ball much harder than Alberto Gonzalez so there isn’t a great reason to think both should get hits 30% of the time they put the ball in play.
However it’s often assumed that all hitter should have a BABIP of around .300 – the idea being that 30% of all contact should turn into hits.
That’s a rule of thumb that isn’t a very good one for hitters because it assumes that a BABIP is completely luck – that there’s no skill involved.
One thing that’s come up with BABIP is that each hitter will likely settle into his own BABIP range and that range will depend on how he generally hits.
The one quantitative rule people have come up with for an expected BABIP for a particular hitter is their % of line drives + .12.
But even that is a general rule of thumb. For instance Jeter’s BABIP year in and year out is much higher than his LD% +.12. Ichiro is much, much higher because he gets so many hits using his legs.
With Giambi – he’s just not hitting many line drives. Only 13% of his contact is resulting in line drives. That’s probably his single biggest problem right now as a hitter. He’s just not making good contact and isn’t hitting that many line drives. 13% LD isn’t awful but it’s not good.
So off the bat Giambi’s expected BABIP is only .250 – not .300 as it was assumed in that CBS sportsline article.
Then on top of that is the issue of the shift. In essence, Giambit is only using 1/3 of the infield area. So his ground balls/ low line drives are going to be hits less often than expected. Similar things for his fly balls but not as dramatic.
So you could guess that Giambi’s expected BABIP may only be .200 – .220. Maybe lower given his complete lack of speed. Right now his BABIP is only .108 so there is some component to Giambi being unlucky but not by as much as you’d ordinarily think. Even if Giambi’s luck turn he may only wind up hitting .230-250 the rest of the way.
With Cano it’s a different picture. There’s definitely more of a component to him being “unlucky.”
But right now Cano is hitting 18% of his contact as line drives. So his expected BABIP is .300.
However, every year he’s been a pro Cano’s BABIP has been much higher than .300. If he settles in at a BABIP of .300 he’s not going to have nearly as good a year as he’s had in the past.
Right now Cano’s BABIP is .152 so there is a significant component of bad luck going on with Cano.
But it’s not as much bad luck as you’d think looking at his expected BABIP of .300 vs. .152.
The most troubling thing with Cano right now and the major thing that makes his low BABIP misleading is how often Cano is popping up.
Cano is hitting 15% of his contact as infield pop ups – that is very high. That doesn’t even count for the balls he pops up that make it just out of the infield.
There’s no reason to think that popping up the ball is “bad luck.” It’s just poor contact.
Last year Cano hit only 5% of his batted balls as infield pop ups so he’s popping up three times as often as he did last year.
Cano is also hitting fewer ground balls and more fly balls – not a good thing necessarily for someone who is not a power hitter.
Cano’s “luck” will change – but that probably will not be enough for him to turn around his season. This isn’t just a spell of things going badly for him.
He’s not making good contact – that’s got to change in order for him to have the type of season we’ve come to expect.
The best hope is that Betemit is being showcased in Scranton and Pirate scouts are watching. They’re looking for a player just like him.
Giambi is clogging up a spot already. No need for another one.
“But isn’t Alberto Gonzalez a more useful player?”
Nope sirrrrr.
Trade bait?
CB
I’d posted shortly after you saying think I agree with your points. That seems like a highly scientific way of saying basically the same thing I said about Giambi, which is:
“He’s already got a better chance of going bowling and missing all the pins without rolling a gutter ball. The only way he could get a hit is if he could somehow play all 7 fielding positions when he hits.”
However, as I said, your way makes you sound far more schooled on the game than mine makes me sound.
Cheers.
No hitter by dicey through 2
I like Gonzo. I only wish we could trade Giambi to Scranton for Betemit.
Betemit’s time will come. As soon as one player is removed from the infield, whether it is Cano, Jeter, Gonzo or Ensberg to the DL or Giambi DFA, there will be a spot down the road.
Does anyone know how long the Yankees are allowed to keep Betemit on a rehab assignment? Also does he have minor league options?
I think it is 15 days. Although I am not sure.
If I’m Cashman I’m on the phone right now looking for a way to get Minky and Marte over here for Betemit. Throw in another prospect. He could make that happen. Betemit and Ramirez for Minky and Marte.
I wish we could trade Giambi to Scranton for another beer vendor.
I don’t think the question is Betemit or Gonzalez? I think the better question is Betemit or Ensberg? Betemit and Ensberg are essentially the same player. Both primarily are only efficient at 1B/3B. Betemit plays a weak 2B/SS. Keeping Gonzalez on the team makes sense because he has speed off the bench and the ability to play 2B, SS, or 3B as well. Also, good things seem to always happen when he’s in the game. My vote would be to keep Gonzalez and Betemit on the Yankees bench. Send Ensberg down to SWB.
What do you think Peter? Does that have a shot of happening?
I’ve got no problem with Betemit.
Is there anything more irritating than a lucky pitcher? Matsuzaka’s got 81 lives. He’s walked 3 guys through 2 IP and just put the leadoff guy on in the 4th. Of course there’s not hits & no score. Arghh. He gets copious amounts of run support and is wild beyond anyones dreams, but gets the wins.
Watch-2 on..1 out and he will get out of it somehow.
Hope I’m wrong
There are very few ways to make an argument that AG is more useful. In the long run, Betemit will hit better, for more power and a higher OPS. He may not be as sparkling on defense, but he’s not bad anywhere (as long as he catches the throws from the catcher). Its great to rip on him and use a very small sample size to raise up AG, but more useful? Highly unlikely…
Screw Betemit, Tabata is 3-3. He is now starting to heat up after his hissy fit.
I’m trying to place that name… Wilson Betamit. Isn’t he the backup SS in Atlanta? That’s National League, so none of it really matters.
Tabata is 19…he’s nowhere near ready for the majors. He needs a solid year at AA right now to prove he has the maturity to play pro ball.
I knew we should’ve thrown money at Lowell.
Matsuzaka with copious run support again.
Ugh. I can’t believe we got swept by the Tigers
Take your pick, Betemit or Ensberg but not both. As long as Gonzo stays. The ideal situation is to see Giambi DFA’d but it’s probably too soon to hope for that.
Giambi is not getting DFA’d anytime soon. No chance right now with all of the injuries they have. No chance.
Kontos through five innings in Erie: 11 strikeouts to One walk.
You heard it here first: Giambi DFA July 2008
OK everyone, here’s something that’ll keep ya busy on an off night:
http://www.wagenschenke.ch/index_site.htm
Click the picture to start & restart. Move your mouse left & right to keep him upright. It gets harder the further he goes.
I think Sheffield’s bat waggle hurts him. Cashman never fixed it.
Oh play the one called “HOME RUN”.
Also, Heidi Watney is cute but she seemed to have trouble remembering Don’s name. She should only address the Rem Dog. Nobody forgets him.
Lowell, Mel?
Where the heck would they have put him?
Logjam at 1B…
Best 3B in the league over at #5…
DH full as well…
I like Lowell as well. But no where to put him at the time.
Now if they DFA’d Giambi over the winter and signed Lowell for 2 years for 1B, that would have been something.
But too much $$$ wrapped up in the Giambino…
Re Giambi,
At times I think he has lost some swing speed, then he has a game where he looks like he is getting out in front of pitches and jerking everything.
In my unscientific analysis, he is trying to jerk pitches and winds up grounding to second a lot.
Of course they have 3 infielders normally on that side so he makes lots of outs.
If the Yanks were going to get rid of him, they would have already. They must still think that he is better than the alternative (Shelly or Ensburg).
I for one would thank him at the end of the year for his service and find a replacement next year. Any deal they try to make now smacks of desperation and will cost dearly.
the betemit for ensberg option does sound good. ensberg hasnt done much lately and both of them are basically the same ( i think betemit plays a better 1b actually and has a bit more pop).
also. giambi needs to be moved down to the 8th or 9th hole. going 0 for 3 every game is a killer.
Alberto Gonzalez is defiantly more useful on the bench.
Get rid of Ensberg. He’s a washed up juicer still living off his 05 juiced stats.
Nothing like baseless accusations that can’t be backed up ata all there CGAR.
Ensberg and Betemit on the bench is >>>>than AG and either of the others. What you are seeing from AG is mostly the result of sample size. At no point in his career has he shown to be anything more than a utility infielder at best.
05 Ensberg was teammates and friends with Clemens. The 60 mins piece shows rog, andy, and morgan training together. It just so happened Ensberg had a MVP type of year after training with those guys. Also, why would Houston drop him so quick? They must have suspected his pervious numbers were the results of roids.
Alberto’s defense is spectacular, forget the sample size BS, who cares about the offense. A great defender on the bench is something we need.
Let’s go into the next stretch before ARod gets back with platoons on the corners. Betemit and Giambi against RHSP, Ensburg and Shelley against LHSP. Right now we can’t afford to bench any of the OFs and certainly not Matsui. If Cano continues to faulter, consider giving AG some at bats at 2B, maybe one day at SS to rest Jeter.
Giambi is way over due, Law of averages is on his side, same can be said for Cano
I think the former Attorney General should be playing everyday at Scranton. How is he going to get better sitting on the bench in the bronx?
Betemit is NOT the same as Ensberg.
Betemit is a career 232/281/351 hitter as a RHB against LHP in 231 ABs
He is a career 266/345/460 hitter as a LHB against RHP in 810 ABs
Put another way, his tOPS+ as a RHB is 66! That is WAY below average. As a LHB it’s 110, which is acceptable as a bench player.
They both can play 3b, but Wilson can’t hit LHP AT ALL.
If it were me, I’d bring Betemit back, send the AG down, and after 15 days (when he’s gotten some swings) bring AG back.
If there’s room on the roster for Betemit and AG, fine.
If not, some more pink eye for Betemit or bye-byeo…..
while A-Rod’s out, i’d like to have Betemit start some games. AG is a SS, probably doesn’t have enough power to be a 3B. the Yanks must think that, otherwise he’d play more instead of Ensberg
CB, that was one of the best, most informative comments I’ve seen on any site. Thank you.