Is it too early to talk about the wild card?
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on May 19, 2008 
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
Based on the e-mails coming in and comments on the blog, Yankeeland is quite depressed over the state of the pinstripes.
Cheer up and consider this: Who is going to win the AL Wildcard?
Tampa Bay leads the WC standings at the moment followed by Baltimore, Oakland, Toronto, Cleveland, Texas, Kansas City, Minnesota and the $205 million train wreck.
Let’s say that Boston, Cleveland and Los Angeles win the divisions. You’re telling me the Yankees can’t outlast Detroit, Oakland, Chicago and everybody else for the wild card? I don’t buy that. Not yet.
It took 89 wins to get the wild card last season. The Yankees finished with 94. Based on the better balance in the league so far, the wild card winner may need only 85 or 86 wins this season, 90 tops.
The Yankees are 20-24. Can they go 70-48 starting tomorrow?
It comes down to two things: Whether Jorge Posada is Jorge Posada when he comes back in June and what transpires with Joba Chamberlain.
A-Rod will do his thing. But the Yankees need Posada to bring even better lefty-righty balance to the lineup. And Joba could be the No. 4 starter sometime in July. The Yankees could look a lot different in the second half of the season than they do right now.
Yes it is too early to talk about the wild card. next question.
Oh,,,and the Yankees are going 80-38 over the next 118 games…so meditate on THAT for a little while…ALL !
Pete, at this point even the wild card is a stretch. The Yankees need to show me that they’re capable of beating the Baltimore Orioles, and then we can talk rest of the season.
“One game at a time” never was more relevant than when discussing this current Yankees squad.
blog-o-rama for pete today
I actually thought the season was over already. What’s that you say? There’s still 75% more of the season that needs to be played? Hogwash!
Thanks, Pete. This actually helped the stomachache I’ve had all week.
Yes it is too early. No one would have dreamed 6 weeks ago that we would be in this mess now, and none of us knows where the team will be 6 weeks from now by the AS break. Let’s wait until after the break and see where things are at.
But I appreciate what Pete’s doing here, he’ll trying to give people hope in case anyone’s about to jump off the GW bridge, which frankly was kind of how I felt last night. But then I woke up this morning and remember that I’m a New York Yankee fan, there is a lot to be thankful for.
Isn’t this the 3rd or 4th year in a row where the Yankees have started slow? Yet, they’ve made the playoffs every year. So it’s nothing to worry about yet. If they are eight back at the beginning of September, then I’d be worried.
I certainly hope that the Yankees look differently come June than they do now. If not its going to be a short season compared to the last dozen or so.
Excellent post, Pete. I predict that we are at this moment at the very nadir of our fortunes. Things are getting to get much better. And I am very happy to see you devoting much more attention and respect — to developments in the minor leagues, from which I believe we will get substantial help in the coming months.
“Isn’t this the 3rd or 4th year in a row where the Yankees have started slow? Yet, they’ve made the playoffs every year. So it’s nothing to worry about yet”
actually we flip out, overreact, and worry every year ,so that’s part of the plan.
if we don’t it, who knows what would happen.
Wildcard!! No Pete. Last year was an abboration. Yankees win divisions. This year wont be any different.
is it too early to concede the division?
i think so
Why am I hearing and reading all over the place that the Yanks are going to leave Joba in the pen? They arent going to actually do that are they? I mean as a fan of the team I feel like they are just wasting the insane tallent he is by keeping him in the pen. Plus they need him to be ready to start by next year because they most likely lose Moose and Andy.
What difference is Joba going to make in the starting rotation if the pen just gives it away? He’s more useful this year where he is. Without him it’s Farnsworth to Mo. Can you honestly say that you are comfortable with that setup?
I’m glad to hear that there is no rush on this “plan”. I hope that they address the bullpen before making it a problem with his eventual departure… NEXT YEAR.
I’d like to see Joba get acclimated to being a starter, but is there any chance that they go slow with him in that area? After the start the Yankees are having, no one in that organization is going to be cautious with him. They’ll just throw him to the lions like they did with Phil and Ian.
I think Joba can take the pressure better than the other two, but what if he blows out his arm trying so hard to help?
May 19 and we’re aiming for the Wildcard? No way. Goal is the division, God willing.
As Sweet Lou was quoted, “You don’t win pennants in May” so the Red Sox & DEVIL Rays should not crown themselves just yet.
Good thoughts Peter. Let’s hope the team has reached it’s low point and shows some wherewithal. You see the players every day and I’m sure you can see the telltale signs in their clubhouse demeanor which right now can’t be a happy place to be.
Sometimes the slightest little thing can be the ignitor.
Tampa was 41-41 several years ago. Of course they folded like a cheap suit and only won 29 games the rest of the year.
And while their team is considerably better than back then, my point is that anything can happen from this point until the end of the season.
So Yanks in the wild card, sure, but they need to get back on track in the next couple of weeks. Or else the hole they are currently digging is going to get too deep.
The great second half they had last year will be impossible to replicate. Even if some how they make the playoffs, this isn’t a championship team (not for a lack of talent, but lack of heart and passion).
I’d say the season is done. Let’s trade damon and the g for spare parts. Cut some salary and watch the young guys.
“Thanks, Pete. This actually helped the stomachache I’ve had all week.
”
I’ll second that Elizabeth.
“Can they go 70-48 starting tomorrow?”
Not with the starting pitching as currently comprised, no. The offense will improve, but they have to rob Peter from the bullpen to pay Paul in the starting rotation. Further, who’s to say Joba won’t struggle a little in his initial go round as a big league starter??? You’re looking for .600 ball the rest of the year. That’s doable, but let’s see them go 6-4 for the next 10 and build off of that.
Hm, don’t the Yankees start “slow” just about every season? Even my father who’s been a Yankee fan since the 50s seems to agree that he remembers the Yankees never being hot out of the gate, minus a few exceptions like 1998. The same goes for the Sox except they seem to always end on a slow note.
This yankee team is mediocre at best. It is a 3rd to 4th place team at best. Last year I had very high hopes even in the middle of the downswing. No such hopes this season. You cant make a playoff run when your pitching staff is in shambles. Our rotation doesn’t have a legitimate ace. Mussina is arguably one of our best starters. Great for him, but bad for the staff. Baseball begins and ends with pitching. We aren’t even in the same league as the other teams.
Biggest mistake was not signing Santana. I would have traded both Hughes and Kennedy for him. They have a 95% chance of not becoming the pitchers everyone envisions. Santana is a time tested ace. The Mets future is bright, ours is highly suspect to say the least.
I went back in time and reviewed last year’s schedule and W/L record. Its exactly the same. We weren’t pitching last year, we weren’t hitting last year and we weren’t playing good defense (I recall a famous NYDN backpage headline “E6″). Sound familiar?? But we came back and got into the playoffs. This is a LONG season.
Even if they do manage to scrape away and get the wild card, does anyone honestly think they are going to give us anything other than another first round exit?
Unless there is a MAJOR turn around in every aspect of how the Yankees have been playing (something that would probably involve a big time trade around the deadline), they’re not making it.
And to be perfectly honest, I’d rather them not make it at all then to see them be embarrassed like they have been for the past 4 playoffs.
The biggest mistake was NOT signing Santana. The biggest mistake was believing that Hughes & Kennedy would pitch shutout.
The Santana trade looks great in hindsight. But if you really analyze the deal, the Yankees did the right thing by NOT trading for him. What the fans NEVER discuss is the fact that Santana was only going to wave his no-trade clause if he was traded to a team that was going to give him a lengthy contract extension. The reason why the Mets got him is because the were committed to signing him for SEVEN years. Santana didn’t look great on Saturday and in 3-4 years he may not be what he is now. If that’s the case, then the Yanks avoided another boondoggle on their payroll.
Santana was a short term solution but a potentially long term problem.
Cathy, the difference is we were under performing last year. The only thing under performing this year is our hitting. Even with monster offense, this team wont be able to be a legitimate playoff contender. It has absolutely no pitching whatsoever. We aren’t even in the conversation.
nemo, you are correct, but its not worth discussing how they would make an early playoff exit, as there really is no hope of making the post season with this staff. Baseball is all about the pitching, and sadly we have none. The fact that Kei Igawa got a start speaks volumes about the severity of the problem. This team is going nowhere this year.
Disclaimer: I was a big proponent of positivity at this point last year.
Pete,
thanks for showing me the lighter side of this Hot Mess we have on our hands right now. I suspected Joba in the rotation by early July if not end of June too, what choice do they really have? Boomer, I don’t think that’s really a choice!
Cathy,
Santana always starts off slow. If you look at his numbers in previous years, he is right on track to having a terrific season.
Pitchers like Santana come around once in a lifetime. The Yankees have a long history of signing these types of players. Sadly we missed out in a big way. He would have added stability and competitiveness to our staff for the next decade.
Regardless of how much money he would have cost, Yankee ticket prices would have gone up.
Not signing Santana was a worse move than signing Igawa.
Yea, sorry, Posada and Arod aren’t having repeat career years again.
is it too early to talk about getting knocked out of the first round again?
Big J,
Pitchers like Santana come around much more often than that. He’s not Pedro in his prime. Or Randy J in his prime so put the hyperbole to rest. At this point, he’s probably not even the third best pitcher in the NL. His ERA this year is 3.30 and last year was 3.33. Yeah, he strikes out a shade over a guy an inning. So do Scott Kazmir and Erik Bedard. Big deal
Pedro Martinez, in his prime, was a once in a lifetime pitcher. Johan, as good as he is, is not in that class. None of his other peripheral numbers stack up against Pedro, Randy J, Maddux – true once in a lifetime guys – when they were in their primes
Pitching is not the problem right now anyway. You know what the problem is? 2,4,2,2,1,1. That’s the number of runs we’ve scored in the last week. THAT’S a problem.