JobaJobaJobaJobaJobaJobaJobaJobaJobaJoba
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on May 22, 2008 
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The Joba stuff makes for good talk radio and it certainly generates traffic to blogs.
But it’s a mystery to me why this is such a debate. In this day and age, it’s staggering that people don’t grasp the value of starting pitching to a baseball team.
There is no question whatsoever that Chamberlain is a heck of a set-up man. I bet C.C. Sabathia would be awesome in the eighth inning. Brandon Webb, too.
That is not the point. Chamberlain was a starter in college. He was drafted as a starter. He was developed as a starter and pitched in the minors as a starter. He became a reliever last season because he was closing in on his innings limit and the Yankees had a need.
He was really good at it. You know why? He’s a really good pitcher.
You know what you do with the really good pitchers? You start them.
Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher to ever walk the face the earth. He was 3-3 with a 5.94 ERA as a starter. He put 86 men on base in 50 innings. He is a skinny guy with one pitch who had an elbow problem.
Joba is 6-2, 225 and has four pitches.
The sidebar to this is that people are vastly overrating the importance of the eighth inning. A decent bullpen with versatile pieces can handle the eighth inning.
————
Hey, Rob Neyer, thanks for the shout out. … Once Willie Randolph is fired (and it’s a matter of time, no?) Tony Pena would be a good choice to replace him. But the Yankees won’t let him go until the season is over.
Preach Peter!
In full agreement, Pete.
Thank you, Pete!! I know many people that can’t grasp why they are moving Joba. While I am a Mets fan, I can see the wisdom of moving him. Guys like Mo, who didn’t have success as a starter, you can move to the pen. Guys like Joba have to start at some point. The sooner the better.
i dont think the mets will make a big hire in-season if they continue to fall, i expect them to replace willie with an interim manager (howard johnson, jerry manual, lee mazzilli )if they decide to eat the rest of his contract, then pick someone after the season. that way they can take a run at bowa, pena and/or bobby v. and have a shiny new look to go with thier shiny new ballpark next season.
Call Mike and the Mad Dog and tell them. They both seem unable to grasp those concepts.
Gotta say Pete, I’m a little disappointed in you.
No report back from Jersey Boys? Did you like it?
If you are going to miss a Yankee series with all this news, the least you can do is give us a Jersey Boys review! lol
I know Pete. I’m sure Josh Beckett would be stellar in the 8th inning too. Now, I’m not saying Joba will be like Josh Beckett, but we have to find out how good he is. If you have a prospect that’s a potential ace, you got to let him start.
Pete you are preaching to the choir. Please call into Mike and the Mad dog and set them straight!
SJ, you stole my thunder. I was just going to tell Pete to call Mike and Chris as well.
btw, we wouldnt be dealing with the damn suspensions if our guys could just learn to hit a guy in the butt and stay away from thier melons.
yeah, Pete. Call the show!
Once again, a sober voice in an auditorium of drunks. Too bad drunks don’t listen….
I will say this–the conversion is gonna make for some interesting news days in the Bronx.
Well said Pete -
It was interesting to listen to the interview of Stick Michaels on the FAN (should still be on their website). He talked about the decision to convert Mo from the rotation to the pen.
One thing I didn’t know was that Mo didn’t have the cutter when he first went to the pen. He was fastball and slider (or change?) for the first couple of years before he learned the cutter.
All I remember when he pitched in front of Wetland was his “lazy” fluid motion and a fastball that exploded out of his hand.
i think pete’s lack of a review of jersey boys speaks volumes.
Mike and the Mad Dog make me what to throw up. They are so clueless when it comes to Joba. It makes you wonder how they have a show.
Pete, you are a flamingo in a flock of pigeons.
If Farnsworth, Bruney, and everyone else but Mo didn’t suck so much last year, Joba wouldn’t have been put in the pen. Joba would’ve been brought up as a starter with the normal progression through the farm system.
Of course we wouldn’t have made the playoffs, so I’d rather listen to drivel than have missed the postseason last season.
Is it only the radio guys who are acting stupid? Most of the columnists and beat writers have seen the light, right?
ok, now russo set me off. BUCK SHOWALTER IS A BIGGER YANKEE THAN WILLIE RANDOLPH???!!!???
now the dog has gone off the reservation.
Mike and Chris sound ridiculous with their reasoning of why Joba should stay in the pen.
“Pete, you are a flamingo in a flock of pigeons.
”
Is that good?
Also, given the all-Joba news on the radio, I haven’t heard much about Willie today (other than he called the Wilpons to apologize about his comments and his call was returned by Omar – which was considered an “ominous sign.”) Any idea how dire Willie’s situation might be at this point?
Mike and the Mad Dog are absolutely right. We don’t know what Joba will be as a starter on this level. We already know he is a dominating reliever.
If they had listened to Stick and acquired Santana, we would not be in this mess now.
Please Peter call them. They need to get a clue.
TK: apparently, it’s “the thing” to say in 5th grade these days when you’re just too cool for the room.
“Pete you are preaching to the choir. Please call into Mike and the Mad dog and set them straight!”
I think there is some unwritten media code that you don’t discredit another media source. However, these guys need some kind of composed callers.
I am sick of them getting owned by a caller, then hanging up and making a point that has nothing to do with what the caller was talking about, and trying to make it sound like it has relevance.
What good would calling their show do? THey’d just shout him down and hang up anyway. Hope Sweeny Murti took the day off.
“Mike and Chris sound ridiculous with their reasoning of why Joba should stay in the pen.”
But you don’t understand – the 8th inning is the Grand Canyons of innings!
(According to Mike)
Is the the Rocket a good comparison? Maybe the Rocket would have been a great Closer…but seriously, in hindsight, would anyone NOT have him start??
“Forget the minor leagues”
They don’t matter anymore
“Have you seen him make a major league start?”
oh man this is too funny… i can’t turn it off
Not to mention Mad Dog just referred to Beckett as John Beckett
A little late picking up on this, got a phone call.
But they said Buck showalter was more of a Yankee than Willie was. WHAT??!!
RE: Wood is Good
That’s not fair. I’m a drunk, and I listen to Pete.
Seriously, I didn’t want Joba to be moved to a starter’s role this year, but IT’S OBVIOUS that the Yankees’ bull pen is doing fine while thair starting rotation need work. Has the 5 spot won a start yet this year? I don’t care what MIke and the Mad Dog say, a starte is infinitely morevaluable than an 8th inning guy.
Talk all you want about Wetteland and Mariano in ’96, but they had guys like Pettitte, Cone, and Key setting them up. The 8th inning means nothing without somebody to get you there.
What’s so obtuse about M&MD is their insistence that Hank is behind this! They are beyond dumb; how many times does Girardi and Cashman have to say this was the plan over the winter?
Do they think Hank understands pitching so well they he gave THEM this directive? And to say that Girardi is secretly against it just betrays the extent of Francessa’s ego; he’s projecting his own wishes on Girardi.
Girardi was hired because the Yankees have a 5-10 year pitching-centric plan, and JoeG is the guy they wanted to work with our stable of young pitchers. Uhhhh…don’t they think they let Girardi IN on this plan?
Idiots!
Wow, that was some quick typing, but BAD spelling on my part in the last post.
There is no guarantee that Joba will be a good starter but you have to try and see. You can get an 8th inning guy from many places but not a quality starter. I would even try IPK in that role for now. Hawkins may come around and be in that spot.
I don’t know why we can’t make him a starter next year to start spring training.He will still not be able to pitch over 150 inning next year anyway.
WE don’t know with four pitches Joba can be a great starter i the majors we never seen it.Lets try but if he ain’t Beckett or Santana he should stay in the BP.I rather have a lights out set-up man and heir to Mariano then a #3 pitcher with a 4.00 Era.
Wow. You can’t say the NBC logo. That’s what Pete is among the pidgeons.
“One thing I didn’t know was that Mo didn’t have the cutter when he first went to the pen. He was fastball and slider (or change?) for the first couple of years before he learned the cutter.”
We watch Mariano now and marvel at how a pitcher can be so dominant with one pitch.
But what’s even more amazing is that he’s been completely dominant throwing one pitch at two different times.
Stick makes a great point one that people forget.
In 1996 Mariano dominated with one pitch but wasn’t throwing the cutter.
Mariano just kept throwing his fastball. His out pitch was a high fastball that hitters just couldn’t lay off.
That was just amazing to watch – he just kept throwing high fastballs and hitters couldn’t lay off.
But like all players Mariano had to make an adjustment – hitters would catch up to that fastball only Mariano.
Then he comes up with another unhittable pitch in the cutter.
That’s one of the most amazing parts of his career. He’s thrown two different pitches at different times both of which were unhittable.
Can a package of McCutchen,Kennedy,McAllister get LaPorta?
My feeling is that if Joba fails as a starter, they can always move him back to the ‘pen. No biggie. I worry about Farnsy handling the 8th, but we can at least give him a shot. If he doesn’t work out, try someone else.
The Yankees will use Mark Melancon as Mariano’s setup man after the All-Star Break. That has been the plan all along, and MM is right on schedule.
Yes, there are some others in the mix as well: Robertson, Cox, Sanchez a little later on, but the man is Melancon. That’s how they’ve drawn it up.
The reason you’ve heard his name only covertly is because Cash & Co. do not want to put pressure on him by declaring him the ‘next Joba’, although Contreras hasn’t been all that shy about making that prediction.
It’s Melancon, and that means that the eighth inning will be in great hands.
Kennedy is going to get killed tonight.
when mo came up, he had 2 pitches, the 4-seamer up top and a 2 seamer he used as a change-the-plane pitch.
McCutchen probably isn’t much of a trade chip. We are probably best holding onto him and seeing what we have. There isn’t a market out there for 26 year old pitcher who are just now getting into AAA. He could be good back end guy one day but I’d rather it be on our team than lose value on him in a trade.
Drew grand slam helping propel Daisuke towards Cy Young award. 4-1 top of the third.
Rivera’s pitches come from Source.
SJ:
On Joba and the Hawaiian League, you are correct there was no rumblings about the bullpen, but there were most certainly rumblings about him being able to contribute to the big club in fairly short order. That was national buzz, Baseball America, etc. Melancon isn’t creating thatr type of buzz anywhere but in the Yankees system. Why? Becuase he considerably less talented.
Again, not saying he can’t do the job, because I believe just the opposite. But do it as well as Joba??? No way, he’s simply not as good.
“Kennedy is going to get killed tonight.”
Let’s not be negative. Instead say, “A-Rod is going to hit two bombs tonight and neither will be mistaken for a double”.
i dont know what Source is, my source is my eyes and what jim kaat said at the time.
“when mo came up, he had 2 pitches, the 4-seamer up top and a 2 seamer he used as a change-the-plane pitch.”
It was the high 4 seamer that was his out pitch. He just kept throwing it. Hitters never caught up for whatever reason.
Very few pitchers have ever succeeded, never mind like Mo did, throwing only fastballs.
His two seamer was never like Wang’s – he wasn’t an extreme ground ball pitcher.
It was one fastball after another. It was amazing to see a pitcher be so good while essentially working vertically down to up.
I can’t think of any other pitcher I’ve ever seen do that.
I said it the other day our 8 game winning streak started last night.
“He will still not be able to pitch over 150 inning next year anyway.”
If they get him to 140-150 this year he will. Which is the plan. So…
DET is about to sweep SEA. I hope that doesn’t mean that SEA will get hot once they get here.
“I said it the other day our 8 game winning streak started last night.”
Good for you, Jennifer! That’s the spirit.
I thought the same thing, but feared saying it out loud. But… we really do need one of those, don’t we?
Okay, if they are converting Joba to a starter, what does the rotation look like? Who’s coming out of it? Rasner? That doesn’t seem fair after the way he’s pitched. My guess is IPK goes to the bullpen. That’s what I’d do.
Melancon is strictly a reliever. Joba is a starter, which is why he had much more “national buzz” around him. See! We’ve come full circle, starters are more valuable than relievers!
“Again, not saying he can’t do the job, because I believe just the opposite. But do it as well as Joba??? No way, he’s simply not as good.”
The point is that Joba is overqualified for the job. Joba put away some weapons and excelled. Why can’t Melancon, using all his weapons, excel as well?
A good stretch for us should be between June 6 and June 26, when we are playing KC, OAK, HOU, SD, CIN and PIT. You gotta believe we’re going to sweep some of those series. Maybe not the OAK one, but those NL games should be a cakewalk.
Anyone notice that Trenton already won there game today. Jason Jones another great outing – 1 run in 6 innings. It is AA but he has been fantastic so far this year. Homerun from Colin Curtis, another hit and 2 BB for Jackson. Ramiro Pena is quietly getting close to .300 with 2 more hits today.
If I remember correctly I think Garcia goes for Tampa tonight.
“Drew grand slam helping propel Daisuke towards Cy Young award. 4-1 top of the third.”
Mel,
Matsuzaka’s BABIP is around .210-.220 so far this season. And it was around .190 for quite a while.
It is very, very unlikely for him to be able to sustain that. A BABIP as low as his has a lot of random chance/ luck associated with it.
Couple that with his walk rate of around 4.5/9 – let’s see what happens with him.
“Okay, if they are converting Joba to a starter, what does the rotation look like?”
By the time he’s ready to revert to starting, it’s likely that the decision will have been made clear by someone’s underperformance. Whether Ian doesn’t get it together, Moose or Rasner returns to earth or someone gets hurt, the choice will probably have been made for them.
And if not…there are far worse things.
Pete – Congrats on the reference by Mr. Neyer.
Who is bigger, Joba or the Pope? The media overkills Joba.
What’s the deal w/ David Robertson? He’s done real statistically so far in his minor league career. Does he have a shot to get called up to the majors?
“Matsuzaka’s BABIP is around .210-.220 so far this season. And it was around .190 for quite a while.”
Wow, that I didn’t know. yeah, he’s primed to fall back to earth. Hard. That’s good for the Yanks.
“WE don’t know with four pitches Joba can be a great starter i the majors we never seen it.Lets try but if he ain’t Beckett or Santana he should stay in the BP.I rather have a lights out set-up man and heir to Mariano then a #3 pitcher with a 4.00 Era.”
you picked an appropriate name, your posts seem endless.
joe
yeah, but is joba bigger than jesus? ask yoko.
while kids are dying in Iraq and gas is 10 dollars a gallon we are talking about a guy pitching
Fredo Corleone,
MM is more of a contact pitcher than Joba, and he doesn’t throw as hard, but his stuff is just nasty, and he throws strikes.
Gee and I’d really rather have a very good pitcher pitch 80 innings instead of 140-200.
/sarcasm
lester, you’re right, typing this is keeping me from curing cancer and last week it kept me from bringing peace to the middle east.
CB,
He’s already given out 5 free passes in 3IP. By my calculations he’s got about 937 lives left. He’s one lucky cat.
ham flinger, quit talking and start chalking!
“The point is that Joba is overqualified for the job. Joba put away some weapons and excelled. Why can’t Melancon, using all his weapons, excel as well?”
Not saying he can’t. Simply saying it’s no longer money in the bank and that it’s a downgrade, which is the issue Pompus and the Puppy had with it.
As I’ve said before, I believe the Yanks are doing the right thing, but I understand their questons about the 8th.
Matsuzaka’s BABIP last year was almost exactly league average.
He should correct.
Kinda tough for a writer or fan to say that anyone who supports Joba as reliever fails to “grasp the value of starting pitching to a baseball team” when John Flaherty and other major league players and coaches are among those supporters. The issue is not so cut and dry.
And exactly how good are Joba’s change and curve at the major league level? That Q hasn’t been answered.
Funny how nobody mentions the 2005 Whitesox when they discuss the rotation vs. the bullpen. There was a team that a solid rotation 1-5 (Buerhle, Contreras, Garcia, Hernandez & Garland), and flew threw the playoffs while barely using their bullpen. Their starting pitching shutdown the Redsox, Angels and Astros, while their offense was able to tack on a few runs per game. Your rotation is where you win and lose. Occassionally your bullpen loses you a game in the postseason, but it all comes down to how your starters do.
Mo has been tremendous the past few years in the playoffs, yet we still haven’t won a thing.
And I agree don’t even bother calling Mike and Dog. They are so rude to their callers it’s not even funny. People hate Michael Kay but at least he lets his callers get their opinion in and debate with him. Mike and Dog hang up on you before you even finish your thought if they disagree.
jason,
Good news about pena. If he could hit, the whole world changes for him.
Garcia is on the fast track to the Bronx. If you, or anyone else, are able to see him, please provide updates.
if you’re waiting for me to solve the word’s problems you’d better hope cryogenics works.
Whatever happened to Scott Patterson? He’s still hiding down in AAA with a good BB/SO ratio.
Melancon does not need to be as talented as Joba since he (Joba) is a once every 20 yr. talent.. I am not saying Jona will be a star of stars but let’s be real his stuff is off the charts; 98 mph fastball, a 88+ mph slider, a good change and curve…
NO one in baseball has that assortment of + pitches right now NO ONE>
Becket throws 95 and has a curve.. santana has 2 very good pitch’s again I am not sure if Joba will work out but his talent is undeniable…..
I do not understand what is so wrong with Joba being a SP. He has been a SP all his life and just turned RP last year. Mike and Chris need to get off of Joba and just let the guy pitch before you start knocking him.
Yeah, particularly if you sound like you know what you’re talking about; they’re very threatened by the well-informed caller. Their gimmick is to get the emotionally revved up caller out of joint by berating him, and when the caller unravels, they hang up on them and pat themselves on the back.
MK is awful on Yankee broadcasts, and though annoying on radio, he does allow callers their say and seems to enjoy debating, and will give quarter if it’s not something he’s politically or emotionally invested in (like bringing down Joe Torre).
He deserves credit for actually having a dialogue, I agree.
“And exactly how good are Joba’s change and curve at the major league level? That Q hasn’t been answered.”
How is this untrue for ANY minor league pitcher? The problem with making that argument is that it applies to every pitcher who has not yet thrown in the majors.
Both scouting reports and the stats agree on Joba…he’s incredibly talented, has three plus pitches and a serviceable 4th pitch. Not only that, but he’s already gotten high-pressure outs in the majors AND he’s got a great makeup.
Think of it this way…if he’d never been moved to the pen and was in AAA destroying the league (and we have every indication that he would be), you’d be screaming for him to be brought up to start right now.
Does anyone else feel like Lee Mazzili would be a perfect fit for the Mets?
I mean, at SNY, he looks like he’s trying to impress the powers that be. I think he’ll be gunning for an interview.
“And exactly how good are Joba’s change and curve at the major league level? That Q hasn’t been answered.”
Not true. On the 20-80 scouting scale some scouts rate his curve as a 70. That is considered an outstanding, plus-plus pitch. Very few pitchers have a 70 curve
For comparison his fastball and slider are basically 80 pitches.
His change up is considered to be at least a major league average pitch. Most people think he just needs to throw it more and it will become an above average pitch.
And when you already throw 2 80 pitches, and a 70 pitch you don’t even need a league average 4th pitch to dominate.
I think just about everyone can grasp the value of having a starting pitcher with Joba’s talent rather than as a setup man.
I believe its a question of timing and what is best for this Yankee Team right now in 2008.
Is Joba, at this stage of his career, more valuable as a setup man – given the 2008 Team Goal to “win now’?
The 2008 “experiment” of Hughes and Kennedy as starters so early in their respective careers does not give me much reassurance that Joba will be more effective this season as a starter than his valuable contributions as a Setup man.
If this is a “transition” or “rebuilding” year (as SJ suggests), with no high expectations of a World Championship or Post Season, then YES, start the development phase for Joba to become a starter. Just don’t expect perfection.
I’ve watched and rooted through the “dark ages” of the middle/late 60s and early 70s, so I can take a couple of seasons worth of retooling.
Everyone should just listen to Pete
after all
-Mattingly wasn’t leaving his home to be the batting coach unless he was going to be the manager
-The Indians weren’t a playoff team after the Yankees 4 game sweep in Cleveland last year
-Dice K was without a doubt coming to the Yankees because they had the most money and biggest need
Maybe if Big Pompous and Dawg would trust Cashman and put some into the young arms they have in the minors, they wouldn’t be as critical of Cashman and the organization moving Joba into the rotation mid season.
On a side note and it’s early on the speculation, but I’m thinking the Yankees let Abreu walk at the end of the season. Here are my reasons:
1) They want to get the team younger
2) It will trim down the payroll by $16 million.
3) The Yankees may believe Austin Jackson is ready to contribute in the majors and they can platoon him w/ Gardner or another veteran who will command $3 to $5 million in salary for 2009.
4) The Yankees need to start committing to improving their defense.
5) The Yankees need to add balance to the lineup by adding a righty bat (this depends on what they do at 1B Texierra?).
2)
“Whatever happened to Scott Patterson?”
He went through a rough patch during a time when they really needed to bring up guys that could go a couple innings. As primarily a one-inning guy, that worked against him. Now that things are a little more settled, the pen is also a little more settled with Veras and Ramirez in there along with Ollie. I guess the latter is still the de-facto long guy, which kind of bites. But I figure Veras or Ramirez would have to struggle for Patterson to get his shot. Or, Hawkins or Farnsworth would have to fail his way to a trade or DFA.
i dont think mazilli will get any better results than willie. nor do i think buck showalter is the right fit.
they need a butt-kicker at this point and id go with bowa if it was my team. they need someone to jerk thier chain.
” Once Willie Randolph is fired (and it’s a matter of time, no?”
rob neyer is bill james light. i could care less what he thinks.
it’s a matter of time before all managers are fired.
what’s your point, pete?
you seem overly eager to replace him.
and for what reason should he be replaced?
he has a better record than girardi,and i don’t hear of any rumors of girardi being replaced by pena.
i do believe there is a double standard for managers of color.
how else would you explain the small number of managers of color?
and i do distrust the statistical analysis community when race is involved because 99% of that community is white.
i’m not accusing any one person of rascism, but when a whole movement such as sabermetrics is predominantly one race, unconscious bias enters. how could it not?
until there is diversity in the statistical analysis community, deciding that dusty baker, joe morgan, and willie randolph aren’t that bright leaves that community open to question.
rob neyer is as much a part of that non diverse community as anyone so i take his opinions about players, general managers, and owners with that in mind.
Call Mike and the Mad Dog and tell them. They both seem unable to grasp those concepts.
The problem with Mike and the dog is that they are know-it-alls. They think that they are right and everyone else is wrong. The other problem is that they aren’t that bright so when someone puts forth a logical argument they don’t understand. I bet if Pete called and said that exact blog post to them both guys would laugh and make fun of him then hang up.
joe monte
add to the list the fact that abreu’s probably going to demand (and get) 3 yrs (maybe plus an option) from someone.
“3) The Yankees may believe Austin Jackson is ready to contribute in the majors and they can platoon him w/ Gardner or another veteran who will command $3 to $5 million in salary for 2009.”
I think that’s a BIG assertion. I’m pretty sure they’re under no illusions that Jackson or even a Jackson platoon would be the right call starting 2009.
Offer Bobby arbitration. If he accepts it, ok you have him for a single year. I’d be ok with that. If not (likely), you get picks. He’ll probably be at least a type B. Then, I think they need to make a trade to bring in a RFer. A righty bat that’s defensively solid, between 28 and 31 on a 1-3 year deal. Not sure who that is, though
The X-man?
whozat,
I think Patterson should definitely be given a shot, mainly because of his fastball location and funky delivery. Hawkins hasn’t really proved anything, Farnsy might be lethal if he could control his fastball and use his “new-found cutter” in better situations, Ramirez is a surprise (no runs!), and Veras looks like he’s trying to be Mo.
I wish Patterson was a LHP, then he might be more valued… but at 29? If he doesn’t come up this season, I don’t think he ever will.
“and i do distrust the statistical analysis community when race is involved because 99% of that community is white.”
Right, right…I forgot that every stat has the “whiteness” multiplier applied to it.
the problem with Mike and the Mad Dog is people actually listen to them and care what they have to say
Sports talk radio is the American form of the “People’s Reciever”
“and i do distrust the statistical analysis community when race is involved because 99% of that community is white.”
I’m not sure what you mean by the “statistical analysis community”
I assume you mean baseball statistical analysis?
But if you look at statistical analysis in a vast range of fields related to social sciences (economics, education, healthcare, psychology) there is an overwhelmingly enormous body of literature that shows that race is an enormous factor in many areas of society.
I’m taking about tens of thousands of analyses and paper.. The body of analysis on the impact of race on society is mind bogglingly large. It’s enormous.
The vast majority of the analysts involved in creating that body of evidence on race were white.
Hey Pete,
can you PLEASE get on WFAN and straighten those 2 clowns out…
Randy,
You have the right to your opinion but I think your completely off base on a few things.
Yes Willie has a better record than Girardi, but Girardi didn’t just manage his team to the worst September collapse of all time. Girardi’s team didn’t just trade for the best pitcher in baseball which made them nearly locks to win the NL.
Also you can hate Bill James for being associated with the redsox (even though that is foolish) but he is a great baseball mind which has contributed a lot to the game. He’ll get his deserved spot in the hall of fame someday.
Yeah there are fewer black managers in baseball, but just look at the numbers. When the league is comprised of only 10%(actually lower) of black players, chances are most managers will be White. But as we have seen the number of lations in the game increase, we have seen a lot more hispanic managers as of late. So I think its tough to call all the owners prejudice or point out a double standard. Its not like basketball where 75% of the players are black and there are still 20+ white coaches.
You guys heard about replay in AFL? Did MLB make an announcement re: Alex’s “double”?
if bobby abreu takes an arbitration he’d likely be leaving $25M or more on the table. this is his last chance(to get his daughter in a fine romance….oops went off-track there) to sign a multi year big dollars deal and i see no way he gives that up for one year of arbitration money.
I am a transplanted New Yorker living in Seattle. I don’t know who Mike and Maddog are, but I would guess that they are fat, overbearing slobs who have never played a sport in their life perhaps beyond t-ball.
What gets me about media types (Pete excluded of course
) is that they report on a subject with such authority yet actually have no training or education in the areas they report on. Maybe they have a journalism or communications degree, but can you imagine if you went to a doctor or a lawyer and asked them where they went to med school and they said, “I didn’t go to med school. But, I hang around doctors for eight hours out of the day.” Yet these are the people who report to us on the nightly news everything about the economy, politics, science, healthcare, sports, etc.
As for the 8th inning being the grand canyon of innings, that is as stupid as thinking the 9th inning is the grand canyon of innings. You should use your best relievers when you need them in the most difficult situations, period. If some schmo can’t get 3 outs in a MLB game without giving up a run everytime he is out there he shouldn’t be a MLB pitcher period.
cb is right on the money- it was sweet watching Mo with that high heat, even had a rise to it at like 95-97 mph. he got the cutter his next year.
Joe Monte,
If Jackson can continue to progress, that would be a great solution to improving the dreadful outfield defense.
The only thing is, If Tabata were more ready than Jackson, that would make me feel less uneasy about letting Abreu walk. Tabata is the model 3-hole hitter, whereas Jackson strikes out a lot and probably will continue to do so, even as his power becomes more consistent (and it will).
Tabata, at 19, has remarkable pitch recognition like Abreu does, and will get even better at laying off and waiting for his pitch.
I guess it comes down to trading off decent-to-exceptional OBP for improved defense, and we know how much the latter has killed this team over the last few years.
Andy Hawkins?
“CB,
He’s already given out 5 free passes in 3IP.”
I’m amazed that Dice K is able to walk so many guys every start and never get blown out. Has there ever been a pitcher with basically a 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio that’s had an ERA under 3?
Hey! Does anyone know who pitched BEFORE Chamberlain last night? Man, can Rasner get a little “hows your father” going here or something? The guy is kicked tail out there but seems upstaged every time he pitches by some other Yankee news. Even last year when he was throwing a good game and Clemens decided to address the Yankee stadium crowd as if he were Christoph from The Truman Show. The real meaning to his announcement that night was this:
“Hey guys! Im coming back to NY in a few month’s cause I want to be home with my adult kids a little longer. I plan on taking 20 million dollars from your team’s bank account to pitch just as mediocre as Randy Johnson did! See ya’ll real soon!”
YAY……..for the youngin’s come up thru our system! Funny…..in a way Rasner had the last word
.
It is a sad comment when race issues are raised on a baseball blog. As if any of the commentators on that subject had anything worthwhile to add. Just another dreary version of the same old song.
“I think Patterson should definitely be given a shot, mainly because of his fastball location and funky delivery.”
I kinda wanted him to open the season with the team, because I thought Ross could use the AAA time to work on his new splitter. I still maybe think that’s a good idea. Hawkins hasn’t given up a run in his last 6 outings, almost 10 innings. He seems to run hot and cold. He’s a solid 6-7th inning guy. Problem is you can’t just kind of put him on hiatus while you give Patterson a shot for a couple weeks. You have to move someone off the roster. Who? Maybe Ross, but they’ve decided he’s the multi-inning guy. Edwar? Hasn’t given up a run. Veras gave up a walk and a homer in mopup duty, but that was his first walk so far, which has always been his big problem. So who do you send down?
rob neyer is bill james light. i could care less what he thinks.
Rob Neyer is the only guy with half a brain on ESPN. Thats not saying much but give him a LITTLE credit.
how else would you explain the small number of managers of color?
There is a small % of people of color in our country (compared to the percentage of whites). I’d like to see the percentage of minority managers compared to the percentage of minorities in America as a whole.
rusty, you just condemend almost the entire baseball writing community as unworthy of thier jobs. except the ex-jocks and we know they are the ‘real journalists,’ dont we?
“Andy Hawkins?”
Jorge Tabata’s cousin
“if bobby abreu takes an arbitration he’d likely be leaving $25M or more on the table.”
I know! That’s why I figure it’s safe to offer it. He likely won’t accept, so they can get the picks. But, even if he does, that’s really not a huge deal for the Yanks because I wouldn’t mind having him on a one-year deal. Unless he really tanks for the rest of the year.
bodhissattva -that is a mouthful. I don’t see garcia live but I am religiously checking the boxscores for his outings. He has absolutely tremendous potential if he can stay healthy. He needs some seasoning and some healthy innings before annointing him anything, but he has a ceiling of a true top of the rotation guy.
Pena does look to be getting it together and he clearly is great defensively. I am a bit disappointed in Hilligoss at Tampa – would have thought he would hit for a better average.
“I’m amazed that Dice K is able to walk so many guys every start and never get blown out.”
ray,
I’m sort of astonished myself. It is bizarre what he’s been able to do this year (last year also to a degree).
On average, a major league pitcher leaves around 30% of his baserunners allowed to score.
Dice K only allows around 15% of his base runners to score.
That’s basically the story on him. I’m sure there are a number of reasons for this but part of is is his abnormally low BABIP.
Michael Kay-”Chien Ming Wang is not an Ace. Joba Chamberlain can be that pitcher”
Let’s do it. Joba’s not going to be the closer, and his talent is nothing to waste as a setup dude. (As Pete points out, he’s trained as a starter as it is.)
The new setup guy? How about Edwar? If he goes an inning, Ramirez can hit 93, 94, and he has some nice gunk to go with his fastball.
vrsce-
when half the players in a sport are of color, race is an issue. do you think there are enough managers of color , general managers of color, and owners of color?
when one of the few managers of color is on the hot seat when he has a .500 record, it should be looked at .
if you don’t want to look at it, your choice.
That’s basically the story on him. I’m sure there are a number of reasons for this but part of is is his abnormally low BABIP.
WRONG, his gyroball gets more effective when men are on base.
baseball is a business, and for the most part, you generate more ticket and team product sales when a team is winning. so why dont we look at the salaries the market is dictating for a starter versus a reliever. the yanks took alot of flap for (over)paying Mo with 15mil a year. the top few starters in baseball make 20 mil. even in best case scenarios, you cant expect joba to be better than Mo as a reliever and santana as a starter. so the market spoke, an elite-level starter is more important than a HOF closer, and that goes without mentioning joba’s not even closing games right now.
also, it’s amusing to hear ppl keep sayin that joba the starter wont be throwing 97 in the 7th inning. who cares, if he dials it down to 94 with movement and with his slider, curve, and adequate change. he’ll be tough to hit. velocity helps put butts in seats, but is alil overrated in my opinion.
to me, the fear of joba failing as a starter (which Steve Phillips seems to repeat time and again) is a ludicrous reason for not trying him as a starter.
“So who do you send down?”
I don’t think Hawkins or Farns are going anywhere unless they really bomb themselves (or get themselves suspended… *chuckle*). I think if Ohlie is going to be continually used as the long-man, he’s going to get hurt. Despite his success, I’d bring a fresh arm up in Patterson, and do as you said: let Ross get his splitter up to a plus pitch. Then when Joba makes the transition, bring up a fresh, upgraded Ohlie for the tight games.
“There is a small % of people of color in our country (compared to the percentage of whites). I’d like to see the percentage of minority managers compared to the percentage of minorities in America as a whole.”
According to the 2000 census, America was 75.1% white (the census report does use the term ‘white’, I’m surprised). So baseball can match the nation (or at least, the nation circa 2000) with 1 manager of colour for every 3 caucasian managers.
Oh, sometime ago I mentioned that New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine were 98%, 98.6%, and 98.4% caucasian in 2000, respectively. That is erroneous, sorry. Those figures were for the 1990 census. For the 2000 census, the figures are 96%, 96.8%, and 96.9%, respectively.
Cashman will be on with Kay @ 4pm if anyone wants to listen in.
Brian Cashman will be on Kay’s show at 4 pm.
ESPN 1050 AM in NY.
So CB is Dice K just lucky or good or a combination of both? It has to be painful to watch him pitch if you’re a Red Sox fan.
SA,
Beat me to the punch! lol
I agree that Joba should be a starter. But isn’t there something to be said for the argument that, since even the better starters often don’t go past six or seven innings anymore, the bullpen has become almost as important as the starters?
CB, is there any website that lists pitchers and how scouts rate each of their pitches on the 20-80 scale? And if not, how do you get your info?
whozat,
I agree. Offer Abreu arbitration. There is no one in the Yankees’ minor league organization that is even close to duplicating his .290 -.300 batting average or 100 rbi.
There are no power hitters at all in the orgization that are close to major league ready.Shelly Duncan’s 6 home runs are still the 2nd most of any player at either AA or AAA…and he only played 15 games. Shelley’s .745 slugging % is by far the best.
I’m very concerned that the Yanks over estimate their minor league prospects. Let’s hope they go a lot slower with the next wave of youngsters than they did with Ian Kennedy.
CB,
Of course Dice K uses a lot of strikeouts to get out of trouble, but having a great defense behind helps out a lot. If he’s pitching for the Yankees, his ERA doubles.
Last year, Dice K would have an inning were he’d just blow up. This year he’s not losing it, just spreading the walks over the innings.
This is interesting. Lead off walk (#6) down to second on wild pitch. Doubled home. Anothe double. 2 runs, 1 out.
randy
As in all aspects of our society, race is a fundamental issue.
Therefore throw away comments on a baseball blog are only self serving and not constructive.
“Let’s hope they go a lot slower with the next wave of youngsters than they did with Ian Kennedy.”
Have you seen Ian’s minor league resume? He put up better numbers than Joba did last year, that’s how dominating he was in the minors.
Why would they keep him down there considering how dominant he’d been?
ray,
I wish I knew. If I did i’d be a rich man!
There’s definitely a significant component of luck. But I’m sure he bears down more with men on base also.
Two things on him however:
1. His mean statistics are somewhat misleading. His 2.15 ERA is terrific. But not quite as valuable as it would be with most starting pitchers.
Why? He just doesn’t throw that many innings per start. He’s averaging less than 6 innings per start. So for 5-6 innings the sox are getting good innings but then the bull pen is left with the rest to pitch.
Part of why Dice-K’s numbers are so good is because he very infrequently faces hitters for that 3rd time through the order (never mind 4th time through).
I think that has a major impact on how good he looks statistically. It’s almost as if he were a bit like a relief pitcher.
2. He wore down a lot the second half of last year. Let’s see how he does this year.
Pete’s decription of the history leading to Joba being placed in the bullpen is correct, as far as it goes. But it doesn’t go far enough. Let’s look at what happened following the end of last season. The Yanks said a lot of things about Joba being a starter, but then they made a clear choice to put him in the pen. They could have made him a starter. But they didn’t. Yes, the innings limit was a factor (but it is also a factor with Hughes and Kennedy, and that didn’t prevent the Yanks from starting these guys). Why did the Yanks put Joba in the pen this season, rather than use him as a starter? Because they realize that he’s a natural-born reliever who is a natural fit for the pen and who will eventually take over for Mariano as closer.
drive 4-5
if you want to keep abreu as your RF, you are gonna have to pony up, not offer arbitration. he will certainly be looking for 3 yrs and probably in the $ 40M+ range. offering arbitration will make his agent laugh, like i said, he’d be leaving $25M on the table and likely his last chance at a big money deal on the table to take that. if you want to let him go, offer arbitration (to get a draft pick) if you want him to stay, you are going to have to pay real money and commit 3 yrs.
raymagnetic,
IPK pitched 40 innings in AAA, that’s all. He wasnt afforded the opportunity to get out of trouble against better hitters until he reached the major leagues. I’m just echoing the sentiments of baseball men like Clyde King that believed a pitcher should pitch at least 250 – 300 innings in the minors before being declared ready for the big leagues. Kennedy pitched 149 innings minor league innings.
“is there any website that lists pitchers and how scouts rate each of their pitches on the 20-80 scale? And if not, how do you get your info?”
The best one I know of is probably saber scouting.
http://www.saberscouting.com/
Other than that it’s just reading from a bunch of places – mostly Baseball American, Baseball Prospectus, etc.
CB,
I’m hoping Dice K has a similar second half run this year in him.
Today so far he’s allowed 11 baserunners in 5 innings and yet has only given up 3 runs. He has to have already thrown at least 100 pitches given that he has 6 strikeouts today. He’s just a mind boggling pitcher to watch.
“Of course Dice K uses a lot of strikeouts to get out of trouble, but having a great defense behind helps out a lot.”
Mel,
Very good point. Every boston starter besides Buccholz has a BABIP below league average.
The Boston defense is definitely a factor.
Thats said no other boston starter has a BABIP close to as low as dice k.
Randy L.
Do you realize the whole point of the work people like Bill James and Rob Neyer do is to objectively evaluate baseball players and remove all subjective analysis which can lead one to inaccurate conclusions about a player or manager? They compare players without subjective considerations, so when they say someone is a “good player” or a “bad player”, it is in relation to all players regardless of color or creed.
Now, you will probably say that they cannot be objective because they are white guys, but that itself is a subjective argument.
You can’t compare Willie to Joe G. now. Not because of race, but because Willie has been there for a while and led the team to an epic collapse. And Dusty Baker deserves all the criticism he gets.
“Why did the Yanks put Joba in the pen this season, rather than use him as a starter? Because they realize that he’s a natural-born reliever who is a natural fit for the pen and who will eventually take over for Mariano as closer.”
Completely incorrect. The innings limits for Joba, Phil and Ian were nowhere even close to being the same.
Joba’s innings limit was much more severe than Phil and Ian’s were.
Joba only threw 112 innings last year. He pulled his hamstring and missed the first month of last season.
That was the problem major problem. Add 30 innings to 112 and that’s how you get the innings cap of 140-150.
Phil’s innings cap was closer to 170 and Ian’s around 190.
That’s the difference. Joba’s innings cap was significantly tighter than the other two.
That’s why he started in the pen. The numbers are in complete agreement with Cashman’s statements on why Joba started in the pen.
“Part of why Dice-K’s numbers are so good is because he very infrequently faces hitters for that 3rd time through the order (never mind 4th time through).”
He’s not gotten to the 4th time this year, but he has been getting thru the 3rd time for the most part. Even in a crap effort like today, he’s thru the lineup three times.
Day like today hurts them. Knowing they were only going to get 5 out of the SS Colon last night, they needed him to come up big.
“Why did the Yanks put Joba in the pen this season, rather than use him as a starter? Because they realize that he’s a natural-born reliever who is a natural fit for the pen and who will eventually take over for Mariano as closer.”
Probably has a lot more to do with the fact that they have two guys in Mark Melancon and JB Cox who are relievers that would be able to take the 8th inning roll once they got their arm strength back. How can you say the guy is a natural born reliever when he has been a starter all throughout college and minor league career? This Joba topic is becoming exhausting.
Besides it doesn’t matter if you have a great 8th inning guy if you don’t have the starters to get you there.
Put Joba back in the rotation.
Whats going to be a worse contract in the end?
a. Santana and his decreasing mph.
b. Dice K and his wildness.
“Whats going to be a worse contract in the end?
a. Santana and his decreasing mph.”
Santana and his decreasing mph… more money.
Phil’s innings cap was closer to 170
Didn’t think Hughes was that high.He only threw about a 110 last season, no???
“Didn’t think Hughes was that high.He only threw about a 110 last season, no???”
In 2006 he threw 146 innings. Add 30 or so to that.
There’s no hard and fast data but they often set innings caps based on the highest total innings the pitcher has thrown. Not necessarily how many the years before.
That’s usually the thinking. There’s really not enough data on this to create definite rules over how many additional innings are safe.
He threw more than that the year prior. Innings limits go on highest volume, not ‘last year’. Or else pitchers with injuries would never get beyond 80 IP
SoS:
Matsuzka won 15 games, won an ALCS Game 7, and went 200+ decent innings for a World Series winner (he won a game there too). Appears to be on his way to another 15 or so win season, another 200 IP, etc. Should they hold on today, they are 10-0 in games he’s started. I doubt they are bitching in Boston.
Fredo is correct.
Would I like to see Dice-K walk less and go deeper into games? Of course I would, but whatever he has been doing is working for him.
There was no critical need for Dice-K to go deep today because of last night. Colon pitched only five innings. He wasn’t all star quality, but not bad. Allowed two runs and six hits.
Sox didn’t use either Okajima or Papelbon last night so from a Sox perspective its all ok.
what was the context for Neyer’s shout-out to Pete?
As a starter, Joba is gonna average two starts a week, at say, 6+ innings per start. Sounds better to me than three or four games a week as the 8th inning guy. He’s got a wicked toolbox of pitches to work with; can show batters something new with each at bat. Most closers and short relief guys are one or two pitch pitchers…like Mo – whom I adore, don’t get me wrong.
This is completely unrelated but Kansas City just brought in Gobble to do relief pitching.
Tell me a kid with the last name Gobble didn’t get teased at school!
I guess my point was that he was being touted as an Ace of a staff. They spent 100 mil(i believe)to get him. His e.r.a. last year was 4.4 last year. Irabu had a decent e.r.a. with us at one point but still didnt give us that Ace like hype.
Yes he won game 7 last year. But Jeff Weaver won a world series as well.
Money and expectation was my question.
From how they built up Dice-K and what they wanted him to be… I’d say he has been a disappointment. Yankees > Dice-K
Good, valid, point SoS. Dead on.
One thing that I don’t like hearing so far is that it sounds like fans and radio host are expecting greatness from Joba right away. I’m already hearing things like “he can be the number 1 starter in the post-season”.
Yes Joba can be a number 1 but he’ll still have a learning curve like any other young pitcher. I just hope fans don’t start screaming he’s a bust or he’s not a starter when he struggles.
The same has happened to Hughes. All the hype when he was in the minors, came up and struggled like any other young pitcher. Now he’s almost forgotten about to some fans.
Pete, good job with this entry. Every point is right on the mark.
once again dick-k is let off the hook, he’s getting really lucky, i mean he is walking a ton and getting out of it
i meant dice-k*, my fault
S.O.S. 27
True they spent 100 million to get him, but more than half of the dough was just for the chance to get him. Boston didn’t have to give up any players at all. No prospects. Not an Ellsbury or Lester or a Pedroia. Makes me think it is a lower risk proposition, and thus lowers expectations (not talking about media hype or the fans, but) within the organization. Igawa has been a dud, and anyone with a clue about his last few years with Hanshin and his temperment could’ve seen it coming a mile away, but all that has been lost (besides a few games)in acquiring him was money, not a Chamberlain or Duncan. Big difference and a reason why clubs with cash should continue to take their chances with Japanese pitchers. Daisuke’s a pain to watch pitch but he takes the ball every five days and wins (if ugly) and has a World Series ring. Plus thinks still might really fall into place.
“things” not thinks.
Will: “How can you say the guy is a natural born reliever when he has been a starter all throughout college and minor league career?”
Because I have eyes and I watch the games. He has the stuff and the guts to be the next great closer. Can’t you see that?
nettles: “As a starter, Joba is gonna average two starts a week”
The season is 25-26 weeks long. Joba is going to make 50+ starts?
“Mike and the Mad Dog make me what to throw up. They are so clueless when it comes to Joba. It makes you wonder how they have a show.”
Coincidentally, I already said their baseball acumen makes me want to throw up. But I don’t want people to think this quote is mine because I want nothing to do with Sabathia. Teixeira’s a different story, but N.O. C.C.
“The sidebar to this is that people are vastly overrating the importance of the eighth inning. A decent bullpen with versatile pieces can handle the eighth inning.”
That maybe, but consider this information that I pulled from Mariano Rivera’s wiki page:
In 1996, Rivera served primarily as a set-up man for the closer John Wetteland. Rivera typically would pitch the 7th and 8th innings, before Wetteland pitched in the 9th. Their effectiveness as a tandem essentially shortened their games to 6 innings, as the Yankees had a 70-3 record that season when leading after the 6th inning. The Yankees utilized a “6-2-1″ strategy by aiming for six innings from the starting pitcher, two from Rivera, and one from Wetteland. The Yankees won 29 of 31 games in which the pair appeared. Rivera played an important role in the Yankees winning the World Series that year (their first championship since 1978). In 107 2/3 innings pitched that season, Rivera only allowed one home run. Setting a Yankee record for strikeouts by a reliever in a season (130), Rivera came in third for the Cy Young Award voting, behind twenty-game winners Pat Hentgen and teammate Andy Pettitte, respectively.
I’m not stating my opinion either way, but it’s certainly some food for thought. If anything, it shows that this really could be a transitional year for the Yankees where the goals of future overshadow the goals of the present.
One more thing to consider. If the Yankees pick things up and get positive contributions from the majority of their starting pitchers, who is to say that Joba won’t find his way back to the Pen for the postseason.
Slowly but surely, I’ve gotten on board the Joba-as-a-starter express, largely due to Peter’s sound arguments. One of the things that kept me skeptical was the idea that Joba would be sent down to the minors for a month to transform into a starter. With this concept of him stretching out his innings during games, I’m converted. The process itself can help the team a great deal.