The LoHud Yankees Blog

A New York Yankees blog by Chad Jennings and the staff of The Journal News


Troubling trends for Santana

Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on May 23, 2008 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

If you’re not an ESPN.com Insider, it’s worth it just for Buster Olney’s daily baseball blog and links package.

That said, he has some interesting stats regarding a Mr. Johan Santana of Flushing, N.Y.

His ratio of strikeouts per nine innings over the last six seasons has been 11.38, 9.61, 10.46, 9.25, 9.44, 9.66. This year: 7.79.

His strikeout-to-walk ratio over the last six seasons: 2.80, 3.60, 4.91, 5.29, 5.21, 4.52. This year: 3.87.

Opponents’ OPS over the last six seasons: .607, .642, .564, .594, .616, .678. This year: .723.

When the Mets were at Shea over the weekend, two people with the team said to me that the organization was worried about Santana’s diminished velocity and Buster’s numbers bear that out. The difference between his fastball and changeup is narrowing.

Now Santana may well make adjustments and continue to pitch effectively. But will he be worth $137 million over six years?

The point I’ve always tried to make about the Yankees not trading for Santana is that it really had very little to do with whether Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy or Melky Cabrera should be dealt. It had far more to do with whether the Yankees should pay big money over a long term to a pitcher for what he did someplace else.

Now consider those trends and picture what they would be against teams in the AL East.

Right, yikes.

Now go to the board and write “I will not doubt Brian Cashman again” 100 times before lunch.

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