Sometimes luck plays a role
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on May 31, 2008 
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Pitcher A: 12 starts, 61.1 innings, 70 hits, 10 walks, 33 strikeouts, 4.36 ERA, 1.30 WHIP
Pitcher B: 11 starts, 68.1 innings, 65 hits, 28 walks, 47 strikeouts, 3.95 ERA, 1.36 WHIP
Pitcher A is Mike Mussina. He has eight wins and could be in the All-Star Game. Pitcher B is Shawn Chacon of Houston. He has two wins and will watch the game on television.
Luck always plays a role.
Clemens had a year like that a few years ago too. He won about 20 straight decisions with the help of some BIG comebacks that bailed him out of some bad starts.
You don’t win 20 straight games and win as much as Clemens did that year with “luck”.
Ollie -
Skill, guile, and yes, luck, too.
Read it again….he won 20 straight decisions over 2 years…he had some NDs along the way
Ollie,
Drugs probably helped!
ive always said that wins as a stat for pitching mean nothing. randy johnson had 17 wins for us and everyone was saying how valuable he was because of that. fact was he had over 2 runs more in run support that year than anyone in the league. his era was 5.
rick helling won 20 games in 1998 with a 4.41 ERA
chacons walks dont really make it comparable.. tahts a ton of walks
some aspect of luck is involved…but it’s not luck alone
I think most of you guys are missing the point here. No one is nominating Mussina for the Cy Young award. But you can’t ignore the fact of what he has given the team, and he keeps them in games and last night actually showed the guts to pitch inside and it worked great.
Think about what the Yankees record would be if we had 5 Mussina’s starting every day. Their record would be about 5-6 games better. He’s not going to shut you out, but he’s going to give you a chance to win, something Kennedy and Hughes failed to do.
Sure, his WHIP is .06 higher, but his ERA is also 0.41 lower, and he’s struck out more. They’re close to even.
although wins might not be a telling statistic isn’t it the most important thing for a team? I’ll take a pitcher with 20 wins and a 4.00 ERA over a guy with 10 wins and a 2.00 ERA because wins is the only stat that shows up in the standings.
Wins are the least reliable pitching stats, but they’re still wins.
Chacon remains and forever will be my homeboy.
Everyone who wanted to DFA Mussina are suddenly quiet. You don’t hear those calls anymore.
Imagine where the Yankees would be WITHOUT Mussina. As times goes by and Pettitte continues to pitch ok, he probably is mulling retirement. I know he said he’d pitch next year, but only if he was healthy and still playing well. So there’s a chance he retires. And then we may get what a lot of you would never dream…. another year of Mike Mussina.
Think about it. If Pettitte retires can you trot out Wang and 4 unproven starters? We tried that this year with 2 guys and look how that worked out. Look for Mussina to sign a one year deal to stay here if he continues to pitch well this year. This is something I never thought possible in spring training.
Those Lace & Stiletto ads at right in your face, you can’t even see the address of Stiletto with that chicks butt moving all over. Great advertising.
Great point….while we’re all thankful for what Mussina is doing, let’s not be confused should talks of a new contract ever come up.
Buddy is looking for a place to spend those lonely hours…. You can tell he’s clearly upset over not being able to snag that address.
Mussina hasn’t been completely lucky, as he has “allowed” the most unearned runs to score in the Majors. Despite this bad luck, he has won 8 games. So there’s that.
He actually has the 2nd worst LD% in all of baseball, but that hasn’t been killing him because of his very low BB/9 of 1.5.
The numbers are comparable, but Chacon gets to face NL lineups and opposing pitchers… Mussina faces AL lineups and DHs. That’s a big difference.
The most important stats for a starting pitcher are:
1. Quality starts — The most important thing for a starter is to give his team a chance to win every time out.
2. Innings — Do you tax the bullpen or let it rest?
3. ERA — How effective are you overall?
4. Wins — You have less control over this than the other three.
It’s funny; in Chacon’s string of no-decisions (his first 9 starts were no-decisions), there’s a 8 shutout IP gem (Valverde blew the save and lost) and a 3.3 IP/5 ER (8 runs total) clunker against the Rangers (Astros tied it up in the 6th, before losing 8-16 in the end)
Oh, and a 5 IP/5 ER effort against the Unit and the Diamondbacks; he actually left with the lead, but the bullpen coughed it up in the 6th
The pseudo theory that wins are not a significant indication of a pitcher”s effectiviness is deeply flawed.
To follow that logic, the World Series should go to the team with the better stats not the team that actually wins the games.
Sabermetrics gone mad or “lies, damned lies and statistics”.
“..but Chacon gets to face NL lineups and opposing pitchers… Mussina faces AL lineups and DHs. That’s a big difference.”
Normally; but so far this year the NL is outscoring the AL 4.6 runs per game to 4.4 runs per game (last year, it was the other way around; AL at 4.9 runs per game to NL’s 4.71 runs per game). So is this inferior pitching in the NL, inferior hitting in the AL, or a combination?
The makeup of this team as I see it has changes a lot in the past few weeks. What I have always known but sometimes need to be reminded of is that prospects are only prospects.
In spring training everyone was talking about an outfield of Austin Jackson, Tabata, and Gardner in 2010. A rotation of Kennedy, Wang, Joba, Hughes, and Brackman. We all (incuding myself) forget how hard it is to actually advance and be successful at the major league level. Out of all thosenames, the only ones I can say with certainty that will be here in 2010 are Wang and Joba.
Austin Jackson is doing ok in AA but not lighting it up. Tabata is hitting .230 and has off field issues. Kennedy is hurt and got shelled. Basically the same can be said about Hughes. They both have been on the DL in 2 consecutive years. Brackman has yet to throw a pitch.
I’m not trying to be negative its just interesting how everyone assumes these guys will make it. Its not a given. Injuries and expectations can derail careers.
So I’ve restructured my expectations. Hopefully Hughes OR Kennedy can help the club in 2009. Hopefully Joba’s stuff translates well to facing major leaguers 3-4 times going through the lineup. Maybe Austin Jackson OR Tabata can help in 2010. Maybe. Its just funny how things turn out. I guess you really do need 10 great prospects to find 1-2 that will be successful in the majors.
“although wins might not be a telling statistic isn’t it the most important thing for a team? I’ll take a pitcher with 20 wins and a 4.00 ERA over a guy with 10 wins and a 2.00 ERA because wins is the only stat that shows up in the standings.”
If you’re talking historically (last year, I’m glad we had that guy with the 20 wins!), ok. But if you’re saying you’d rather have that guy going forward, I totally have to disagree with you.
I’ve seen no evidence that a pitcher can pitch more or less effectively based on the runs his team scores. A good pitcher limits runs whether or not his team scores 0, 1, 2, 20, etc. Just because pitcher X had 0 runs of support in 10 straight starts and pitcher Y had 10, doesn’t mean pitcher Y is better than pitcher X.
Lol miggs!
Hence why even mentioning wins when discussing a pitcher’s abilities is completely silly. It has hurt Mussina over the course of his career even if it might help him get an allstar game appearance now. When people discuss his eligibility for the Hall, one of the major points they always make is his lack of a 20 win season. These people shouldn’t be paid to be on tv and talk about baseball.
“The pseudo theory that wins are not a significant indication of a pitcherâ€s effectiviness is deeply flawed.
To follow that logic, the World Series should go to the team with the better stats not the team that actually wins the games.
Sabermetrics gone mad or “lies, damned lies and statisticsâ€.”
Wins are important, as a -team- statistic.
Wins are -useless- as a -pitcher- statistic.
See the difference? You don’t base a player’s entire worth based on runs and RBIs, do you? After all, runs and RBIs are the most important things a player can be involved in. However, if you’re batting .500 with a .750 OBP, but, for reasons outside of your control, no one is -ever- on base ahead of you, and no one -ever- knocks you in… are you a worse player than a .200/.300 hitter with 80 Rs and 60 RBIs?
VRSCE—-
The TEAM’S W/L record is completely different from using individual W/L records to determine effectiveness. Your analogy is absurd.
Buddy,
LOL. You think drunk guys are going to remember the address? They’ll just tell the GPS thingy “Lathe and Thiletto” and hope he gets teletransported there.
The ‘stache doesn’t always work, the kid without one won the bee last night!
this will be a hard season for a pitcher to call it quits on.
I can’t believe someone’s trying to say that Mike Mussina is the beneficiary of luck. Was it lucky when he was forced to get 6 outs in the first inning yesterday due to horrid defense? Was he lucky back when he first joined the Yankees when he’d consistently win 15-19 games while getting the worst run support in the AL?
Mike’s had some luck along the way. This year? No. He’s been excellent in all but two starts, and anyone trying to paint a different picture than that clearly has NO idea what he’s watching. None. At all.
86w183
I disagree although I would not be so rude as to call your comments absurd. Nevertheless when one posts on a blog the risk of insult by insulting people is always present.
I don’t understand what other posters want people like me (and the many others) who said Mussina was done to do.
Do we have to self flagellate ourselves in public or something?
Do we have to get “Moose” tattoes or something to make up for our opinion back then?
The guy was getting tatooed on the mound. Was he not? He was throwing an 85mph fastball and assorted slop that was getting slammed by EVERYONE all over the park.
What we saw on the mound was clearly a shell of the pitcher he once was. He lost his velocity and he was stubbornly resisting the adjustments he had to make.
Then Hank came out and named him in an interview as someone who is hurting the team (the whole pitch like Moyer thing) and then all of a sudden Mussina changed the way he pitched and started to listen to the coaches who told him how to use his declining stuff to get outs.
I think he was both challenged and embarrassed by that. He smugly plays it off as meaning nothing to him, but when the owner of the team calls you out, it’s safe to assume you’re on the chopping block next if you don’t start doing your job.
The fact that he’s pitched well is a shock to most of us. This was the same guy that the ever forgiving Torre pulled from the rotation last year if you don’t recall
That said, I’m happy he’s showing up and helping the team win.
We didn’t want him to fail. We wanted him to pitch well and give the team something. Anything.
So there you have it. I wanted him DFA’d. Was I right? No.
But am I completely confident that he will remain this effective for the rest of the season?
No.
Does he deserve to be an All Star? Absolutely not.
Out of all our pitchers, only Mo and Wang should make the team.
Why would Moose be at the ASG? yuck. Look at his PAEBD (performance after error by defense). It’s terrible!
Wang should be 10-1 by now. Andy should have 4 additional wins.
BTW I still have a soft spot for Chacon in my heart. Not only was he a big part of that ’05 season, but his own story of being adopted and having a tough life is touching.
The problem is everyone saw the success Joba had and expected everyone else to perform just as similar.
We forget that Joba is a once in a lifetime thing
G Love I hear what you’re saying about being wrong on Mussina. I think everyone misses a few here and there. And I agree he probably cannot keep this up all year. But it sure has been a pleasant surprise so far.
PeteAbe’s post illustrates why Sabermetrics is an important aspect of player evaluation: Based on a huge sample of his past performance, Mussina’s year so far can be attributed to some luck, but mostly can be traced to Girardi’s recent comment: “I’m a big believer that you don’t forget how to pitch.”
Chacon’s success with the Yankees in ’05 was mostly luck, again given his track record.
Mussina has been an excellent pitcher in the AL East during the steroid era. Hall of Famer, 1st ballot.
interesting.
a factor may be the Yanks have a better bullpen, which would preserve more leads. the Yanks’ bullpen has a .690 OPS against, which is below the AL average .OPS of .726. Houston’s bullpen has a .790 OPS against, which is above the NL average OPS of .743.
of course you’d have to look at the game logs to see if Houston’s been blowing Chacon’s leads.
“The guy was getting tatooed on the mound. Was he not? He was throwing an 85mph fastball and assorted slop that was getting slammed by EVERYONE all over the park.
What we saw on the mound was clearly a shell of the pitcher he once was. He lost his velocity and he was stubbornly resisting the adjustments he had to make.”
Last year? Totally agreed. He’s -definitely- made adjustments this year (changing arm angles, changing speeds (82 to 86 to 88 to 85), throwing his curve in any count, pitching up and in, etc. It’s working. Very rarely are we seeing -hard- hit balls (yesterday’s first inning had one or two, but the others were squibs that are outs on grass, hits on turf).
He had a couple bad starts vs. the Red Sox (well, Manny). He had one bad start a couple weeks ago.
I’ll take it, all told, this year, though.
“The problem is everyone saw the success Joba had and expected everyone else to perform just as similar.”
Maybe some felt that way. To say that about all of us isn’t accurate. My estimation of what Phil and Ian could do in the bigs this year had nothing to do with Joba. It had to do with THEM. They both had GREAT numbers in the minors. Phil has GREAT stuff, and has shown good mound presence in his career thus far. He wasn’t ranked the best (maybe 2nd best) pitching prospect going into 2007 because of Joba. He was ranked that way because he’s really promising. Whether it was the weather or mechanics or fear of getting hit around or injury, we didn’t see the pitcher that Phil really is on the mound this April.
As for Ian, he’s a command and control guy. I figured he could be a solid 4/5 guy. I still think he can be. He just needs to learn how to set hitters up better and not become predictable.
Plus, his vehicle collection is sweet.
OMG they haven’t even completed year 1 in AA and already there is question about what they will be ? You know the problem miggs your watching them too closely, and not realizing if they dominate the league at a young age they would be fast tracked, right now the struggles are what will make them better ball players, I checked the EL stats do you know Austin Jackson is in the top 50 in RBI he’s #33, Tabata ranks #47, Colin Curtis ranks #20
In Total bases Jackson #12, Curtis #23, #12 in hits Jackson, # 15 in hits Curtis, # 43 in hits Tabata….I check birth dates for the players in the EL in the top 20 the mean age is 23-25 yrs. old, to see Tabata and Jackson and Curtis there is a plus treat people should realize.
My only real complaint about Moose is his inability to finish batters off.
Otherwise, I’m much happier with him this year than last.
The thing about those stats is that they’re cumulative. Moose started off slow, and then had the one disaster outing against Baltimore. Other than those, he’s been pretty good, all things considered. Chacon, on the other hand, may have (I don’t know for sure) been consistently mediocre.
“My only real complaint about Moose is his inability to finish batters off.”
that’s who he is now, I think. To K a guy, he really needs to be ahead enough that he can waste a pitch or two to set the guy up to swing at a bad pitch. Moose needs guys to put the ball in play and he needs his D to play well behind him. He gets a DP grounder to 1b and gets no outs. He gets a DP grounder to 3B and gets no outs…Did he really “fall apart”, or is he just not a strikeout pitcher any more?
The fact that Chacon’s record is 2-0 with 9 no decisions probably says as much about his teams offense and bullpen as it does about his pitching.
“My only real complaint about Moose is his inability to finish batters off.
Otherwise, I’m much happier with him this year than last.”
Exactly. He does -not- have the ability to blow a fastball by someone for a K. If he throws a strike, it’s fouled off. If he throws a ball, they either don’t swing or they foul it off.
Either way, this team is a lot more fun to watch now than it was 3-4 weeks ago. Just having A Rod back has been a huge lift, plus the way Giambi and Matsui have been hitting the ball. Abreu gets 2 triples last night and scores 4 runs. The offense is starting to click and this is the most dangerous offense in MLB.
Everyone was hyping Detroit and their offense going into the year. People were saying Boston was an elite offense, same with Cleveland. But no team can assemble a lineup of punishing hitters like the Yankees can. And that’s why Mike Mussina, he of the 4.30 ERA and 1.3 WHIP, has a chance to win 20 games if he keeps pitching decent. He doesn’t even have to pitch better than he has been. Just stay consistent and keep your team in the game and the offense will produce behind you. Moose hung in after a rough 1st inning yesterday and got the victory.
I don’t see how you can demean his accomplishments just because he gets decent run support. Many pitchers have gotten much better run support so far this year. There have also been a ton of errors behind him, badly played balls, and he still has managed to win 8 games. Something has to be said for that.
I’m so thrilled about Moose. I called for him to have a comeback year back in January. He’s one of my all-time favorite pitchers, and I couldn’t be happier.
“I don’t understand what other posters want people like me (and the many others) who said Mussina was done to do.”
i can’t speak for everyone, but what i want people to do is to STOP saying that EVERYONE on the team who goes through a rough patch should be DFA’ed.
it’s easily the most annoying part of this blog.
a few weeks ago it was Damon who should be gone, even though he was great for month and then bad for a week.
there were thousands of calls for Giambi’s release.
dump Abreu, fire Kevin Long, DFA Moose, cut Betemit.
earlier in the season the Yankees were idiots for not calling up Shelley Duncan. now they are idiots for not sending him back down. they are idiots for taking Joba out of the bullpen. they were idiots for taking Bruney over Patterson. idiots for sending down AGon instead of releasing someone. they are idiots for not calling up Gardner. they are idiots for not bringing back the amzing Andy Phillips or Doug Mientkiewicz.
every single lineup is bitched about incessantly.
players who aren’t even playing are bitched about, merely because they are on the team, even though they have little to no impact on anything in the long run.
we get it. the Yankees are supposed to go 162-0.
it’s as if no one here has ever watched a season for 162 games.
this isn’t even directed at you G. Love. it’s ok to be wrong about a player. it happens to everyone. you admitted you were wrong, that is plenty good enough for me, but it’s just a general observation about the tenor of this blog.
Yes, to those who decry sabremetrics on this one (and this isn’t really even a sabremetrics issue; it’s common sense that’s been out there forever) the key difference–as pointed out by a couple of others–is that pitching wins and team wins are two completely different statistics. If they were the same, OF COURSE we would all prefer a pitcher with weaker statistics with more wins to one with the reverse–but they’re not. A pitcher’s win total is hugely dependent on his team’s run production. To say you’d prefer a pitcher w/ more wins to one with better stats makes no logical sense, because if you give those same pitchers identical run support in each game, the one with the better stats will clearly generate more wins. Because a pitcher has no way of actually influencing run support (especially in the AL), taking the pitcher with better statistics (all other present and future considerations of age, expectation, improvement, salary, leadership, chemistry, etc. aside) is inescapably the correct decision.
Brandon I was only making a point of how some assume that all these players will eventually make the team and contribute and that’s just not the case.
I understand how young they are and I have read how talented they are (Jackson and Tabata esp.). I’m just saying a lot has to go right for them to find themselves in the Yankees outfield. Odds are they both don’t make it. I’m not trying to be negative or overanalyze their AA games. I’m just trying to get some perspective.
whozat,
I’m not an expert, you just see some 0-2 counts end up BB.
It must be tough for him, conventional wisdom says attack, but he gets hit hard or he defense lets him down. Even last season, he had a tough time because he lived on the edge and wasn’t getting the calls he needed. You’d hear, “If they’re not going to give him that strike, it’ll be tough for Mike to…” and it was.
I’m glad he’s figured it out, but he’s never been a favorite no matter how witty and “charming” he’s been lately.
I doubt that Chacon is going to watch the game…
“there were thousands of calls for Giambi’s release.
dump Abreu, fire Kevin Long, DFA Moose, cut Betemit.”
I was one that wanted Giambi DFA, boy am I glad they didn’t for now…and the Betemit arguement is another thing w/ this blog, he actually hits the ball and Shelley Duncan has whiffed more than Bet and Cano have combined, Betemit comes back from a rehab stint and people expect him to light the field on fire, last night he hit a straight up LD as a RHB and then as a LHB he hit a straight up LD, but what happens he gets robbed and people call him useless, sooner or later those LD are going to miss gloves and he has been swinging better w/ the glasses BTW he has a 32.0 % LD rate we should watch this coming month if he continues to hit at that rate.
Lucky in terms of overall run support (though there are mitigating factors like being matched up against better or worse starters)
Right now, in games that Moose has started, the Yankees offense make 5.08 runs per game (61 runs over 12 games).
Incidentally, if you take out the 12 run game against the Mariners, it drops to 4.45.
Aside from quirkiness in April when Moose matched up against frontline starters, hasn’t he lately been facing middle or backend starters? I haven’t kept track…
The Yankees average 4.48 runs per game.
To compare;
When Pettitte starts, the Yankees score 4.73 per game (take out the 13 run game against the Mariners, it falls to 3.9).
When Wang starts, the Yankees score 4.36 per game (take out the 15 run game against Boston, it falls to 3.3). Although, Wang is supposed to be the first slot and matches up against good pitchers.
When Kennedy pitches (counting that monsoon game in Royals where he pitched innings 6-8), the Yankees score 3.56 per game (take out the 9 run game against the Orioles and it drops to 2.88). Kennedy’s dismal pitching aside, that’s still some lousy run support. Between the two, it’s as if those starts were a lost cause from the beginning.
When Hughes starts, the Yankees scored 3.67 runs per game (the highest of which was…6 runs; anyway, if you take that game out, it drops to 3.2). Hughes’ dismal pitching aside, that’s still bad run support. Similar to above.
When Rasner starts, the Yankees scored 5.5 runs per game (to be exact, they were 8, 5, 8, and 1). Even if you take out one of the 8′s, the Yankees averaged 4.67 runs per game. Great pitching + working offense = good. Great pitching + no offense + bullpen blowup = bad (yea, I’m still annoyed that Rasner took the loss for a 6 IP/1 ER effort).
“BTW he has a 32.0 % LD rate we should watch this coming month if he continues to hit at that rate.”
Wow. I didn’t realize he was that high.
(FYI, the ‘general wisdom’ is that BABIP should be ~ LD% + 12%).
“I’m glad he’s figured it out, but he’s never been a favorite no matter how witty and”
Then you must not like back-of-the-rotation starters. Which is what he is at this point. I don’t understand why you’d not “like” him for being the pitcher that he is. Would we all prefer to have a rotation filled with Jobas, Verlanders, Santanas, and Doc Halladays? Obviously. But not liking a back of the rotation guy because he’s old now and doesn’t have the stuff to blow a hitter away anymore is kinda pointless. What back of the rotation starters CAN do that? The ones who are inconsistent because they also walk a zillion guys. I’d rather have moose out there than a hard-thrower who rarely knows where it’s going and will walk the park more often than not.
Josh,
Chacon has a 3.7 BB/9, which really isn’t that bad. It is definitely not great, but certainly not terrible.
That aside, Moose certainly has pitched above expectations and I hope that he keeps it up
Oh, and I hope that he squeezes in a perfect game sometime this season.
“Wow. I didn’t realize he was that high.”
It’s a small sample, but yeah…he’s hit the ball with authority. He looked great in the few games between DL stints.
As a bottom of the order bat against righties, he brings a lot to the table, I think. I wish his platoon split was the other way, but…
V so far 2008 Wilson Betemit in 34 ABs
.333 BABIP, 0.0% BB, 25.7% K, 36% GB, 32% LD
I was surprised too, if he stays healthy this could be some year for him.
Hey…if Giambi stays healthy and hot til the break, do you think he makes the All-Star team?
Matsui, if he stays hot, won’t beat Ortiz for the elected DH, but I think he could earn his way onto the team. Mo, obviously, should go. I can’t think of anyone else deserving, really. ARod and Jeter will get votes, but neither is stellar right now. Arod could put togehter a worthy run between now and then, but I don’t thinK jeter could have all-star numbers by the break without an inhuman tear.
“V so far 2008 Wilson Betemit in 34 ABs
.333 BABIP, 0.0% BB, 25.7% K, 36% GB, 32% LD
I was surprised too, if he stays healthy this could be some year for him.”
Do you have L/R splits on that?
I just need to share with you (and I have already aluded to this in the past) that I sometimes feel like a good-luck magnet in terms of the Sux. Either that or it is entirely coincidental – and that’s fine with me too – that I always seem to tune in just in time to see bad things happen to the Sux game.
Anyway, I am watching hayseed Beckett cough up a run, after the Sux obviously took a 2-0 lead. Very early in the game, yes it is. But it still nice to see the lead being whittled away. Now 2-1 Sux.
GO O’S!!!
See y’all later.
whozat,
My feelings for Moose have very little to do with his stats and records. It’s his reactions to the performances of others on the field and how he responds off the field.
I cheer for all the Yankees, he’s just the only one that rubs me the wrong way. Which is strange because I probably match up with him personality wise.
how far did Betemit drive that ball to the opposite field last night in his last AB?
on his last AB before he got hurt, he did the same thing in Detroit.
Betemit has legitimate power.
“It’s his reactions to the performances of others on the field’
You mean how he gets visibly annoyed by poor plays, that he seems to lose focus when there are errors behind him, or the myth that he ‘gives up’ when there are errors behind him.
He certainly does seem to execute pitches poorly after errors at times. I think he did ok yesterday, except to Young, but yeah…there are definitely times when he seems to leave pitches up after an error. It’s annoying. But he generally does well. And I think he’s funny. But, then, I’m a blunt wiseass too.
WHAT AN IDIOT!
Sorry. I wondered how Beckett could be pitching so soon again. I am pathetic. I am watching the re-run of yesterday’s game.
Well, since I know how that ended, think I’ll change the station!
Is trisha’s comment about last night’s game?
???
lol –
Can we make a big bet on the outcome?
Beckett pitched yesterday Trisha.
TKinDC -
Well at least my timing is good, even if the game doesn’t count…
“how far did Betemit drive that ball to the opposite field last night in his last AB?”
yeah, 90% of the time that’s a booming run-scoring double. Damn Gomez and his speed.
And that liner to right looked like a good piece of hitting too. I dunno…how long can he play SS before he kills the team with his range? I think jeter needs to sit. He won’t, though.
For years one of the knocks against Mussina was that he pitches just well enough to lose the 2-1, 1-0 games even though he was racking up good stats. It was even speculated early in his Yankees career that his teammates subconsciously disliked him because he wouldn’t get much support and would win fewer games than Clemens and Pettitte when they had worse ERAS and fewer strikeouts. Now he’s pitching just well enough to win without great stats and he deserves some credit that. Or maybe his teammates just like him better? *g* He’s been the first to say that he’s been very fortunate this year–check his numerous postgame interviews crediting the bullpen and offense. Frankly, I think lady luck owes him one season where he gets all the breaks after a career of “almosts.” I hope his luck lasts all year to finally nail down a 20-win season.
“how far did Betemit drive that ball to the opposite field last night in his last AB?
on his last AB before he got hurt, he did the same thing in Detroit.
Betemit has legitimate power.”
from the RH side he drove it RF Cuddyer had scramble for it, my guess w/ the baggy being 367 in RF I’d say 325-340 is where Bet drove it, from the LH side he hit it probably 10 feet from the warning track Gomez finally ran a good route to the ball otherwise that would have been a sure double
“You mean how he gets visibly annoyed by poor plays, that he seems to lose focus when there are errors behind him, or the myth that he ‘gives up’ when there are errors behind him.”
it’s right up there with the myth that he falls apart if he doesn’t pitch on his normal schedule when the facts don’t support this at all.
“from the LH side he hit it probably 10 feet from the warning track Gomez finally ran a good route to the ball otherwise that would have been a sure double”
this is the AB i am talking about. that ball was crushed.
whozat,
Mostly, it’s that he threw a teammate under the bus in a postgame.
“For years one of the knocks against Mussina was that he pitches just well enough to lose the 2-1, 1-0 games even though he was racking up good stats. ”
and for years, these “knocks” were stupid.
if you give up 1 or 2 runs every time out, you are a Hall of Famer.
“Mostly, it’s that he threw a teammate under the bus in a postgame.”
I dunno. I tend not to really care about that stuff much. But, to each his/her own.
I don’t know what to say about Pete’s thoughts on the Win stat. He always shoves Wang’s Wins in our faces and uses that to defend Wang as a true ace, the implication being that Wins are largely a result of skill. But then he uses Moose’s Wins to say that Wins are largely a result of luck. So what is your true opinion, Pete? You just like Wang better than Moose, that’s it, huh? So you’ll unfairly use the stat as it fits your opinions, I guess.
ok time for people to react the other way. Should we consider resigning Moose? And how about Giambi, Joel Sherman says we can keep him for $10M, is he worth it?
Take away Manny Ramirez’ 4-4 with 3 HR’s and a 2 run double (8 RBI) against Mussina, and what do his numbers look like? Pretty good I’d say. The problem is it’s unlikely to last. I hope it does, cuz he’s a good guy.
I say re-sign Moose AND Giambi to one year deals.
No longer length.
test
test #2
Thats why wins aren’t a good indicator of pitching performance.
whozat,
It’s a girl thing.
I wouldn’t resign them. Too much risk involved, especially with Giambi. I mean, a one year deal isn’t horrible, but then you have to consider the money that would be involved…
Giambi for 10 mil would still cost 15; 5 mil to buyout next year, then a separate 10 mil contract for next year?
Or did Sherman mean 5 mil to buyout next year, then a separate 5 mil contract for next year?
Jeff,
No to both. They’ll be one year older and you’ve got guys in the farm who can give you what they’ve got. Or they’ll give the $$ to CC and/or Tex.
only sign giambi for next year if you can find a solid 1Bman and move damon or let abreu go. that way, he’s just the d.h. the team sure seems to like him and he’s one of the guys who (at least tries to) keep it loose in the clubhouse.
i wouldnt go any longer with moose, though, i was a skeptic coming in this year and i was wrong, but i still dont expect him to keep this up all season.
as for the luck factor, lets not forget that in moose’s bomb against baltimore when he pitched one inning, he only got charged with one earned run b/c of jeter’s error.
Mel,
Do you get annoyed when Kobe demonstrably embarasses his teammates after they make a messed up play?
“you’ve got guys in the farm who can give you what they’ve got.”
we’ve got a guy in the minors who can give us giambi’s production? who is he and why isnt he in the bronx now?
You are what your record says you are. – Bill Parcells
blargh
it doesnt matter about the buyout, that is money spent already and isnt coming back no matter what. as for the luxury tax, they’re gonna spend that extra 40% on whomever they sign.
i wouldnt worry too much about thier payroll anyway, we are going to be paying through the nose for anything and everything at the stadium next year so we deserve the best.
So Far:
Joe Torre’s Dodgers: 27-27
Joe Girardi: 27-27
What’s interesting is that if Mussina puts up a good year he might be a type A free agent, and if the Yankees don’t want him, they can’t offer him arbitration because he would accept as he’s comfortable in New York and knows the Yankees have a good bullpen to help him pursue 300. I can’t imagine they’d offer Giambi arbitration either on the chance he’d accept, although he’s more likely to be type B.
It would probably be best to wave bye-bye to Giambi, but the decision on Moose would require some time to decide if I was the GM (I’m not, by the way).
If you re-sign Mussina, it would be wise to factor in an extra backup plan, just because he has gone down around August during the last four years. In ’04 and ’05, he missed time due to elbow trouble, in ’06, it was his groin, and last year it was back and leg problems along with some ineffectiveness. Just remember that if you re-sign him, you may have to make a few extra concessions, although you have to make concessions with any pitcher, no doubt about that.
Oh, the buyout means 5 mil will be gone either way; it’s a question of how much Giambi will take in a separate contract, if we want him back.
Which leads to the hypothetical situation where, suppose that Giambi is playing for us next year, if Giambi sucks, how hard does it become to swallow more cash for nothing or to get someone else to trade for him and his contract
raymagnetic,
Yes, I do hate that. And he did throw Bynum under the bus, too. But if Moose leads the Yankees to the World Series like Kobe’s led the Lakers to the NBA Finals, then I’ll build a shrine for Moose. Apples and oranges, ray.
Sean the Disabled Mess- are you any relation to Carl the Disabled Mess?
Mike Mussina does not operate on Luck – he uses his brain. Right now, there is no one playing in MLB who knows as much about pitching as Mike does. Too bad, when he finally retires, he is leaving baseball and going home to be with his family — he’d be a spectacular pitching coach.
hamfighter,
They have him wrapped in bubble wrap.
They have lots of guys who can give us what Giambi gave us at the beginning of the season.
Mussina is a 5th starter. He gives 5 maybe 6 innings on his best day. For that he has been good this year. But there is no way hes being brought back next year.
I’ve always been a huge Chacon fan. First, I genuinely liked the guy. Second, the Yankees clubhouse could use a few more African-Americans. Third, I’ll always appreciate (a) his 8-3 record in 2005 and (b) the extraordinary outing he had in Game 4 of the 2005 ALDS, with the Yankees down 2 games to one, Chacon pitched one 6.3 innings of 2 run baseball.
I never really understood why the Yankees gave up on him so precipiately in 2006. Craig Wilson was a waste.
And as a fifth starter, Chacon couldn’t have been any worse than Jared Wright in 2006 or Kei Igawa in 2007.
Chacon must have antagonized Cashman somehow.
“The problem is everyone saw the success Joba had and expected everyone else to perform just as similar.
We forget that Joba is a once in a lifetime thing”
Rebecca – let’s wait until the end of the season to make remarks like those.
Betemit only has legitimate power from the left-side. From the right-side, he’s a no better hitter, and probably worse, than Ensberg.
Betemit is probably also a better 1B than Duncan, at least, at the moment.
Shelly needs more work at 1B; otherwise, the Yankees should confine him to OF and to DH. He has a plus arm, certainly better than Damon or Matsui’s.
Luck is great – run support is even better
Other than Tejada and Berkman, no one in Houston can hit
i think the guy he might have antagonized was torre. same for soriano and leyritz.
Maybe, ham, that could be, too.
my last word on moose is this: i’m very happy for him and all, but ill reserve judgement until i see how he’s doing in august.
The story goes that Chacon had a clubhouse exchange with Torre after a game against the Nationals in ’06. Chacon was the starter and the Yankees had a huge lead in the fifth inning, Chacon gave up most of the lead and was taken out before he could get the five innings to qualify for a win. The Yankees lost the game and Chacon said that he was “definitely disappointed” that he didn’t get a chance to win the game. Torre ripped into him after the game for his comments. Chacon never was the same in ’06 after he suffered that hematoma on his leg.
general, that would come as a big suprise to carlos lee.
If Mussina wins 2 games a month for the rest of the season, he’ll finish with 16 wins.
Has there ever been a player who retired after winning more than 15 games in a season (not including retirements due to injury)?
Betemit is a flat out butcher in the field. He can’t play the middle infield and hes not a 1b. He is a complete feast or famine hitter. They should package him for some relief help.
“Second, the Yankees clubhouse could use a few more African-Americans.”
The clubhouse can use better ballplayers. Even if they are white, black, asian, alien, red, blue.
People who play the Race card in baseball are generally Jokers
Mussina has had some better run support this season, but in fairness, the defense has also coughed up a fair amount of unearned runs in his starts too. So, I’m not sure how much “luck” has to do with his record. I like Chacon, but the stat that jumps out at me is the difference in walks. Walks kill a pitcher. Those “big” innings are usually the innings with a few walks. That’s why guys like Santana can be successful despite giving up so many homers. Without the walks, they are just solo homers.
I tip my cap to Moose. Put me in the camp of fans surprised at his turn around. Let’s just hope it lasts the entire season.
Moose call, Sandy Koufax retired in 1966 after a record of 27-9, ERA of 1.73 and 317 strikeouts, 323 innings pitched. He’s not the only one, though.
Bellaire,
I agree that Betemit is a butcher in the field. He literally stinks at every position he plays. However, I would keep him and limit his use solely to pinch hitting. He is (supposedly) a switch hitter and has some pop. He can come of the bench for specific match ups late in games. Ensberg the guy who needs to go. Bring back AG in his place, and we’ll have a true back up infielder and a guy with some speed to pinch run late in games, both of which this team is missing.
Ideally, Shelley should be replaced with a guy that can actually play good 1st base to sub for Giambi late in games with a lead. I’m not sure who that guy is though?
Regardless of what they do, the bench needs better balance. All of our bench players seem to fill the same role.
mel wrote: “It’s a girl thing.”
Mussina has no shortage of female fans, he is nice to look at.
@GreenBeret
I thought Koufax had to quit because his arm was killing him?
I’d give Mussina a contract like Andy has; & I’d also keep Giambi for less/1yr; but then again I’m of the few who have had faith in them both all along. In a perfect world, I’d probably shift Moose over to the BP in 2010 providing the kids are healthy, give him a year of spreading his knowledge around there in a more hands on way, and then he can retire and hopefully end up HOF bound. [I'm sure this makes sense in my head and not in theory, but hey. I for one DO think he could pitch out of the BP... I'll even bribe him with a few candy bars!]
All I know is there seems to be on specific player who is fielding better when Mussina is on the mound vs last year… and I’m happy about that!
Be careful, notice that PeteAbe didn’t specify that Mussina has been the beneficiary of good luck.
It could also be read as Chacon being at the receiving end of some bad luck.
Wins don’t really provide a context to evaluate a pitcher’s performance–thats why they aren’t useful.
That being said Mussina is doing this year what he didn’t do last year–which was help himself out. This isn’t the Mike Mussina of last year or especially 5+ years ago. I think he finally adjusted to the fact that he no longer has the stuff to nibble around the outside corner.
You guys want luck? Aaron Small was lucky (thats why comparing Rasner to Small makes me cringe).
Not exactly sure what the point is, but these are the facts:
1) wins are a meaningless statistic to evaluate pitchers. If you’d prefer the guy with 20 wins and 4.00 ERA to a guy with 10 wins and 2.00 ERA, you’re a fool. Wins are a function of run support.
2) Mussina has been somewhat lucky, because he’s giving up a lot of line drives and more of them should be falling for hits. Chacon has been very lucky. Based on how he’s pitched, his ERA should be above 5.
If you’re talking about lucky/unlucky in terms of wins:
1) There’s no point.
2) sure, Mussina has gotten more run support and has a better bullpen behind him. If that’s lucky, then fine.
3) I don’t care.
Mussina going to the All-star game? You’re kidding, right?
Which pitchers exactly, from the following list, does he have even the slightest chance of being picked over?
Lee, Marcum, Matsuzaka, Saunders, Greinke, Contreras, Halladay, Santana, Floyd, Shields, Vazquez, Lester, Wang, Beckett, Greg Smith, Litsch, and the other 15 or so guys with a better ERA and WHIP?
Moose is smart as a whip (and not just about pitching), has a dry sense of humor, and is very easy on the eyes. And yes, it’s a girl thing lol.