Getting caught up in the draft
-
- June
- 4
The draft is tomorrow and all of the key front office people have gathered in Tampa.
Predicting the draft beyond the first few picks is impossible. Unlike football and basketball, the best players don’t necessarily go first. Some teams will draft for immediate need, others based on who the player has for an agent.
Andrew Brackman, for instance, was one of the five or six most talented players available last season. But he fell to the Yankees because of concerns about his elbow (which needed surgery) and his agent (Scott Boras).
Brian Cashman doesn’t make selections, Damon Oppenheimer does. But since he assumed control of the draft after the 2005 season, Cashman’s philosophy has been to select high-ceiling players regardless of the risk factors. The edge the Yankees have is their ability to make a financial mistake.
2006: Ian Kennedy (not a stellar junior year) and Joba Chamberlain (injuries) were the first two picks. Collin Curtis, who overcame cancer, was the fourth round pick. Mark Melancon had elbow issues. Dellin Betances had signability issues.
2007: Brackman had several red flags. His elbow, his agent, his desire to play basketball, etc. Brad Suttle was a draft-eligible sophomore who was a tough sign. The same was true of Carmen Angelini, who had to be paid off not to attend Rice. Chase Weems was a sixth-round pick who wanted second round money. Damon Sublett had injury issues.
So what happens tomorrow? Just a hunch but the Yankees could take Fresno State RHP Tanner Scheppers if he falls to them. He was diagnosed with a stress fracture in his shoulder and doesn’t have eye-popping college stats. But he has a 99-mph fastball and is still learning how to pitch.
Gerrit Cole is a high school right-hander who is repped by Boras. He reportedly annoys a lot of people with his attitude, to the point where some teams have dismissed him. But he is projectable and throws 96.
Casey Kelly of Sarasota, Fla., is the son of former Yankee Pat Kelly has signed to play football and baseball at Tennessee. He’s a pitcher and shortstop but is said to want to play shortstop. His bonus demands will scare some teams off.
Arizona State 3B Brett Wallace is a big guy (260) who doesn’t run well but really can hit. Maybe the Yankees see him as a first baseman. Wake Forest 1B Allan Dykstra is that kind of player as well, a 1B/DH type who rakes. He’s 6-5, 240.
One guy I like who I had a chance to see play is NYC native Anthony Hewitt, who attends a prep school in Connecticut. He’s a great athlete who has signed with Vanderbilt and will cost a lot. He could be another Angelini sort of player. He’s very raw but could be great.
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, June 4th, 2008 at 3:24 pm by Peter Abraham.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Share and Enjoy: 
| 
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
Peter Abraham
we need late inning reliver for the long run!! mariano wont pitch the next ten years. (who knows maybe yes….)
who’s supposed to project to be the closer of the future – cox or melancon?
taking a glance at whose available, this years draft doesnt seem to have the depth of years past.
With the dearth of Left Hand Pitchers that are available, why do the Yankees, who could always use lefties, always go after only RHP? I know some is availablility of talent, but still, wouldn’t it be worth going after someone with slightly less risk/ceiling who is a lefty than keep stocking up on righties?
i would let joba in the bullpen and keep him as a backup when mo goes down! because a starter is easyer to find then a good reliver.
No bad attitude guys, please.
Let’s hope they’ve learned from the anti-social behavior of Mel Hall, Kevin Brown, and Mr. B. Unit.
I’m just seriously trying to understand how Shelley is still on this roster and can Cash call Sabean and see if he can get Erick Threets before a team picks him from waivers before we do. I mean atleast make an attempt.
“i would let joba in the bullpen and keep him as a backup when mo goes down! because a starter is easyer to find then a good reliver.”
the opposite and w/o SP you don’t see the 8th or 9th
In the baseball draft you should just draft the best player available unless there are real extenuating circumstances. You don’t worry about position because a player drafted today may not be playing in the majors until 5-6 years from now.
Left handed pitchers just do not fall in the draft due to signability/ injury nearly as much as right handers because there just aren’t very many talented lefties available. The ones that come up get taken early regardless of signability.
In past years I was pretty certain the yankees would wind up with a high ceiling talent. This year the draft is thin and I’m not so sure if they’ll get a really talented guy.
28. New York Yankees
The Yankees are usually in the position to take players with signability problems who fall into their deep pockets. The only problem is that no such player exists here. So what do they do? They could make a total upside bet if a player like Hewitt is still available but the organization is lacking in advanced power hitters, and two players—Arizona State’s Ike Davis and Cal’s David Cooper—fit the bill perfectly. Most scouts give the slight edge to Davis, and the fact that his father Ron wore the pinstripes as a reliever in the late ‘70s and early ‘80s helps the cause. Going by the book here makes it even more likely that the Bombers will spend huge money next month on righty Micheal Inoa, the 16-year-old Dominican wunderkind who will likely command a record bonus for an international free agent.
Selection: Ike Davis, 1B, Arizona State
Baseball Prospectus’s pick for the Yankees. Advanced power hitter.
“because a starter is easyer to find then a good reliver.”
You’ve got that backwards Al.
Jeepers,
In the past few drafts there just weren’t many good lefties available, and to take a so-so lefty late in the first round would be an overdraft. This year there are a few lefties available who could be interesting for the yankees. such as:
Brett DeVall: Big lefty out of Flordia (HS), with low 90’s fastball and decent curveball. Supposedly is a strong competitor on the mound. Kind of reminds me of Pettitte.
Nick Mardone: Could be tough to sign, Boras guy with a committment to Florida. Projects to be a #2 starter.
Kyle Lobstein: Another big lefty with an average fastball, solid secondary offerings. Won’t blow you away but very also very athletic, plays basketball.
Those are just a few who could/should be there around #28. Or they can continue going with best pure talent and chase Cole, Melville, etc whoever slips. Scheppers worries me though, elbow injury is one thing, those you can come back from, but shoulder problems can be deadly to a career.
you cant overstrategize the draft, you take the best guy available, period. most of these guys wont even make it to the majors, so you just take your best shot. and then someone you thought you were picking to fill the minors with turns ou to be orel hershieser (17th round) or even a hall of famer (mike piazza was picked (62nd round). meanwhile first round and even first pick guys turn out to be nobodies or marginal major leaguers.
so the only solution is to scout the hell out of them, make your best educated guess and go with it.
Pete, I would doublecheck my sources. The Pat Kelly who played for the Yankees in the early to mid 1990s went to the high school the next town over from me.
According to a bio on Casey Kelly,
Father Pat Kelly and uncle Mike Kelly played for the Toronto Blue Jays, cousin Dustin Kelly plays for the Boston Red Sox organization, and his brother Chris Kelly plays for the Tampa Bay Devil Rays organization.
While the Pat Kelly who was the 2B for the Yanks in the 1990s did finish his career for the Blue Jays, he did not have a brother in the minors or majors, nor any other family connection who did. The last I knew, that Pat Kelly married an Australian girl, and was doing Far East scouting for the Dodgers. This was told to me a few years ago by Kelly’s mother, who I have met several times.
I am sure this is another Pat Kelly who is Casey Kelly’s father.
I would think they would take a big bat with their 1st pick. They seem to have a ton of pitching prospects and only a handful of hitting ones, especially in the upper levels.
“I am sure this is another Pat Kelly who is Casey Kelly’s father.”
It’s been reported in multiple places that Casey Kelly’s father is that Pat Kelly – the one who played for the yankees.
Casey Kelly is not the son of the Pat Kelly who played for the Yanks. There was a Pat Kelly who was drafted by the Blue Jays in 1973 and had a cup of coffee with them in 1980 and he is Casey’s dad. This Pat Kelly also took over for Bucky Dent as the Reds bench coach during the middle of the season last year.
CB: The Pat Kelly who played 2B for the Yanks in the 1990s had no brother. He was adopted. What his birth name really is, I can’t tell you. I don’t know. He was adopted by the Kelly family.
I also know that the Pat Kelly who played for the Yanks in the 1990s proposed on a playground, and which playground it was. I am pretty sure the proposal came AFTER 1989, the year of Casey Kelly’s birth. Kelly would have been 22 in 1989, old enough to become a dad, but I am sure the Pat Kelly from my area, who played for the Yanks in the 1990s, was older than that when he got married.
I also know that she was from Australia, and that that Pat Kelly went to Australia to live for a while.
I know his mom. Hence the information.
I wouldn’t mind one of those 6-5, 240 1B provided they can actually field. Obviously go for the pitching first, but maybe the Yanks can grab someone like that (1B) in a subsequent round.
Mike S.
Fair enough. It sounds like you and Bad Scooter are all over this.
I have no particular insight into this – I’ve just read in several places that Casey Kelly was the former yankee Pat Kelly’s kid. Not just in one place – several over the past couple of months.
I’m sure Pete was looking at the same sources. It’s strange because it was several different sources i saw that in.
Thanks for the correction. I hope casey kelly would fall to the yanks so thanks for the correction.
Hey, at least it wasn’t reported that Casey Kelly (who is white) was the son of the Pat Kelly who played for the White Sox and Orioles in the 1970s. THEN you would have a scoop!
Here’s some info on Casey’s father. (Love the baseball card.)
http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Pat_Kelly_(kellypa02)
DeVall is a pretty good possiblity for the Yanks with the first pick. After that they have to stock up on position players.. they have enough RHP to last a lifetime, but few LHP and few position prospects. No, you don’t draft for a particular position, but organizational balance is important. There are 23 pitchers on the 40 man roster, not counting 4 on the 60-day DL… all but 4 of the 27 are righties… that’s a major flaw.
College corner infielders with power are abundant this year and getting one with the supplemental pick or second rounder would be good planning.
I think the Yanks need draft simply on best talent. Looking for a power hitter or something always make you take a less talented player. Most prospects never make the majors so just taking the best gives you a shot. Hopefully Tanner Scheppers is there. He is injured with a stress fracture but he seems really good. He is still learning to pitch but he has a power fastball at 100 and some developing breaking stuff. He was supposed to be a top five pick so basically he is Brackman. I just think it would be a good idea because he would join Brackman and hopefully one will develop into a good starter.
Tanner Scheppers does NOT have a stress fracture as initially diagnosed…plenty of physicians have expressed doubt with that first assessment. However, something is wrong there which has caused his stock to plummet….selfishly, I’d like to see us stay away from two injured pitchers in back to back years.
Right, and if you go to the link dadofjft provided and go to kellypa03, you will get the one who played for the Yanks and get this …
Biographical Information
After retiring Pat moved to Australia with his wife. While there he spent time as a scout for both the Los Angeles Dodgers and Seattle Mariners. Kelly had previously played in the 1996-1997 Australian Baseball League without the knowledge of the New York Yankees. He was involved in one of the largest brawls in Australian Baseball League history. When that incident was reported in the US media, George Steinbrenner ordered Kelly to return to the USA.
Kelly later coached for Australia in the 2005 Baseball World Cup, 2006 World Baseball Classic, 2006 Intercontinental Cup, 2007 Baseball World Cup and 2008 Final Olympic Qualification Tournament.
Yes, I know Casey Kelly and his family personally. Casey Kelly’s dad, Pat Kelly, has had a long minor league coaching career, and was the bench coach for the Reds for the last half of the season last year.
Is Allan Dykstra Lenny’s son?
wow…the prep school in CT thing tipped me off and after searching, Anthony Hewitt went to my high school!!
yes he is lenny’s son
The Wake Forest Dykstra is NOT Lenny’s son.
Lenny’s son is Cutter Dykstra, a California h.s. infielder who is not a major prospect.
err, yeah i was just about to correct myself
ide like to see them take cole. Yeah, he could have attitude problems, but let me tell you something when you get into the clubhouse with some of the Yankees i can assure you that he won’t have any problems. A lot of times these high school kids have attitude problems because they are just so much better than everyone else. I hope the Yankees take him, I’ve been reading about him for a little while now. The kid from Fresno state wouldn’t be bad either
I’d like to see the Yanks take Robbir Ross at either 28 or 44. He gets overlooked because of his size but already has a fastball in the low 90’s a plus curve and excellent control. He is lefthanded and could help us in 2009 or 2010.
Robby not Robbir
“wow…the prep school in CT thing tipped me off and after searching, Anthony Hewitt went to my high school!!”
Yeah I went there too! I think we had someone drafted by the Dbacks a few years back. When were you there?