Rivera not fit to be tied
-
- June
- 10
You hear it all the time. Why aren’t closers used more often when the score is tied? Maybe this is why. Check out the strange splits of Mariano Rivera this season:
Save situations (16 games): 17 innings, 6 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 17 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA
Getting some work in (6 lopsided games): 6 innings, 3 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 4 strikeouts, 0.00 ERA
With the score tied (5 games): 6 innings, 5 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, 8 strikeouts, 2 HRs, 4.50 ERA
Bullpen usage has become so regimented the last 10 seasons that all relievers want set roles, especially closers. Take them out of their routine a little and unusual things happen.
————
Meanwhile …
* Wilson Betemit and Chad Moeller were used as pinch runners on Monday. That’s how useless the bench is. The Yankees could stand to make a few moves.
* Why does Melky Cabrera continue to slide into first base? Joe Girardi needs to address that. They broke him of that habit last season and now he’s back doing it.
* Had a chance to watch Brett Gardner on Saturday in Scranton. Hitting him ninth could help the offense. They don’t have anybody like him. The question is whether they’re ready to sit Melky or consider trading him. At some point soon, they’re going to have a make a decision on Gardner. He looks ready.
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on Tuesday, June 10th, 2008 at 3:45 am by Peter Abraham.
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Peter Abraham
you’re up awfully late, brother. it’s 1am out here.
i’m 100% behind you on gardner. melky’s a very good CF, but he’s not the five-tool player some yanks fans touted him as.
one way or the other, this team needs to make some kind of change on the bench. wouldn’t be an awful move to pick up somebody who can put cano’s job in jeopardy, too. although that’s a lot easier said than done.
Well, Kase, we just got Emilio Navarro
Not sure I understand your arguement on coming in with the game tied or with the lead. The closer’s job is to shut the other team down regardless of the score. Of course that doesn’t always happen (they are apparently human) but that’s like saying homerun hitters should only come up to bat with the bases loaded because they are use to getting a lot of RBIs. It’s baseball the scenarios are bounded to be different every time a player enters the game.
Not getting down for Mo giving up a HR (the second time this series) because it happens and unlike many I don’t demand a player get traded or DFA everytime they give up a run or fail to get a big hit….it happens.
Before I would ever trade Melky, or sit him, I’d send Shelley back down, he is not helping the team right now. I would then move Gardner into CF for a while and see what that gets. Melky could be the “4th” OF, or I’d give Abreu a several-day rest, he’s looking a little tired since he’s actually started to run after balls. Melky would be more valuable coming off the bench right now than Shelley since the team seems to insist on using Betemit late innings at first. Melky could be the speedy pinch runner, since it doesn’t involve first base except as a departure point.
I have solved the problem my friends.
2008 As RHB BA .206 OBP .286 SLG.324 OPS.610
Melky can’t hit lefties. At least not this year.
and despite the fact the Brett Gardner is left handed
vs Left BA .349 OBP .440 SLG .619 OPS 1.059
He actually hits lefties better.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a . . . . platoon. Actually, you can live with a 5th OFer considering he can be an outstanding pinch runner/late inning defensive replacement. We actually have a 5th OFer now, a RF named Duncan. Who has been useless all year. Send Shelly down and call up Gardner, who can be used vs Lefties.
TA-DAAAAAA!!!!
I, too, would like to see what Gardner has to offer. And it would make sense to send Duncan down (I didn’t even know he was still on the 25-man roster). Use Gardner as a true bench player to pinch-run and to spell Melky and Damon in the outfield. It may help Melky get going. Doesn’t he respond well to competition? We have enough guys to cover first.
Speaking of first-the Big Unit and the Big Eyechart got into it today. RJ didn’t like how Dougie kept stepping out of the box.
Oh, and if Cash (who last I heard said Gardner being lefty batter was a PROBLEM) wants to say “Young players need to play every day” maybe someone could explain to him that between starting vs Left handers, being a late inning defensive replacement, and being a pinch runner he would be getting in games just about every day.
It’s time to bring up Gardner. I think Girardi will fall in love with him and his speed. Especially in tight, close games it could be the difference.
bring up gardner and trade melkey. We have seen the best of melkey cabrera and i think the speed dimension gardner brings would help the yankees MUCH more.
While the “closer out of their routine” idea is very interesting, I see a couple big problems.
The sample size given is incredibly small. Maybe he has the same numbers over his career, which would be worth more. But this sample size is way too small to get anything out of it.
Also, coming into games that are lopsided would seem to be further from a traditional closer situation than a tie game, wouldn’t it?
HELLLLLLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOOO SAMPLE SIZE!!!!
Dead on about Melky and the sliding. You see too many major leaguers sliding into first base to beat a throw not realizing it slows them down. Yet, when the 1B gets pulled off the bag, they never seem to slide to avoid being tagged.
I have been all for Melky coming up and growing on the job in the bigs, but I think some of his problems at the plate are somewhat due to being young. He has a lot of developing to due yet as a hitter–does that mean I think he’ll be great and we should forget about Gardner? Not necessarily. But I do think if Melky ever really got it together he would be a good all-around major leaguer.
I wouldn’t necessarily trade melky right off the cuff. Melky’s value is as a defender. Let’s be honest here… an offensive threat, he’s not. But wouldn’t seeing the value in the market for Damon also be worth exploring? Especially now, considering his hot streak. Of course, the inexpensive and under control Melky probably probably has more value than the expensive and one-year-left Damon. But including a minor league arm (with either Melky or Damon and cash considerations) might bring back something worth getting… D Marte perhaps? Worth looking into I think.
Oh, and I would definitely like to see what Gardner brings to this lineup.
Also - trading Matsui to the Giants to make space is another idea worth considering. I’d have said Giambi first, but no one wants to eat his $20 mil contract. We’d have to eat most of it for any team to consider taking him.
Trading Melky seems to be a little premature. Melky is currently a role player with the potential to be more. Gardner is intriguing and deserves a chance but I’d like to see him compete at the major league level before I get caught up in his speed and start trading away pieces that we know are effective.
Pete, when can we expect a post about your thoroughly professional habit of posting bizarre discrediting remarks on Yankee fan pages?? Everyone go to Know Mass (Figure it out - Pete blocks posts with the name properly written)
Pete posts rude remarks in the comments on the site - how hypocritical for him to decry the same on his own site, and how bizarre that a supposedly accredited and professional journalist does such things in his spare time. Right??
Wonder about Melky’s trade value. I’d guess it’s not terribly high, though I’d think Cashman would market him as though it were. He doesn’t cut it as a corner outfielder offensively and there aren’t a lot of teams looking for CF’s. Florida, San Diego, Washington and maybe Colorado??
Trading Melky has to be the stupidest thing the Yankees can do right now. He is one of the few yankees with energy. He earned his spot and it shouldn’t be taken away from him. Garnder might be a good player in the MINOR league but that doesn’t always translate into the MAJOR league. Just look at Duncan, he KILLS minor league pitching but look what he does in the major. I do believe that they should bring up Garnder but not to play everyday CF. Teach him how to play LF and RF then he can be more useful.
No reason to trade Melky right now, but bringing up Gardner makes sense for a lot of reasons. Replacing Duncan with Gardner gives the bench a lot more speed and flexibility.
Melky could make some starts in RF or be a late inning replacement for Bobby “eek a wall!” Abreu.
No, Gardner doesn’t offer power, but exactly how much has Duncan been providing? He has the same number of homers as Morgan Ensberg and Chad Moeller. Duncan and Moeller out, Gardner and Lane in… maybe Lane will provide some RH pop off the bench.
I’m not down on Mo either, but why was he put into a tie game when he’d pitched so much lately? If you are serious about building the pitching staff that’s a situation for Ohlendorf or Ramirez to step up and get the job done.
I’m starting to wonder if .500 is all we’ll get out of this season.
I agree that Brett Gardner needs to be brought up and Shelley Duncan sent down.
Gardner brings a new and exciting demension to the team and would not be a waste of a roster spot. It could push Melky and his buddy Cano.
Soon after, bring up Gonzo and send Betemit down.
Wow,
Funny when I said Melky was nothing more than an average CF over the break, people got really upset about that.
Why is it that when I say these things people take offense, and then a couple months down the road they are in agreement.
wow, I just don’t get humans. They argue with you and want to disagree with your ideas, than a little later they steal your idea and think its there own. Heh, its all about the popular consensus..
I get it, so it is.. if you don’t like the messenger then he/she can NEVER have anything of value to say. I’ll start thinking outside the box, when you people start showing some signs of thinking inside.. Geez, C’mon!
Brett gardner is hitting what 287? Plus he’s small and the same age or older than melky, why would anyone be in a hurry to bring him up?
The only problem I have with bringing up Gardner is that he wouldn’t get a chance to play every day. I would hate to see him ride the pine and not see much action. That said, the Yankees need someone else on the bench that can run. You had Moeller pinch run for Po late in the game. Granted, another player would have been used (Moeller to catch the next inning) but some speed on the basepaths would be nice. Look at the “panic” Ellsbury brings to the Sox once he gets on base.
Pete, statistical analysis is not your strong point. A 4.50 ERA in 5 innings for Rivera this season, and “closers” (not just Rivera, but all closers) can’t pitch effectively?
Why didn’t Rivera implode in the 6 innings he pitched in lopsided games? Those innings weren’t part of his “routine.” Was he able to trick himself into thinking they were save situations?
You could have had something interesting here if you went back through Rivera’s career and found a history of pitching poorly in tie games. Instead you used a miniscule number of innings to make a sweeping, unsupported point about all closers that is contradicted by other stats in the same post.
You also misstate the argument about using closers in tie games. The question is actually why managers don’t use closers in tie games in the 9th or extra innings on the road, where a run ends the game. I’ve never heard of a debate about using Rivera in the 9th in a tie game at home.
As much as I’m a Melky fan, I was really disappointed in his approach during his last at bat yesterday. Bases loaded, a walk and a HBP, 1-0 count, and he swings at the first strike? Make the guy work there. You know the pitcher’s going to have to come in there later in the count anyway.
One at bat is not, of course, a reason to relegate a guy to the bench. But Gardner has nothing more to prove at AAA. Maybe he won’t work out in the majors. But I’d love to see him get a shot.
“Brett gardner is hitting what 287? Plus he’s small and the same age or older than melky, why would anyone be in a hurry to bring him up?”
He brings speed and is a good OBP guy. I don’t see him being as good as Ellsbury is up in Boston, but he’s that kind of player. Catalyst up top with solid OBP skills. He’d likely hit 9th with Damon around, but there’s some value in that too.
Trade Melky? No way. He’s an energetic, fun guy who adds some life to the dugout. His hitting isn’t outstanding, but his defense is the best the Yankees currently have in the outfield. Absolutely no way do I trade him. Abreu, sure. Melky, no.
Shelley Duncan hasn’t done anything. His defense is poor and he isn’t much of an upgrade over Giambi. In the outfield he’s passable. His hitting has been a disappointment. A little power, but not much of a bat in the end. I love his enthusiasm and he’s a blast to watch, but I’d trade Duncan in a heartbeat and wouldn’t hesitate to DFA him for someone else.
Would someone explain to me the fascination with Gardner? Looking at his numbers I really don’t see anything outstanding at all. He looks like a decent AAA player, not major league material.
So, Pete, you’re implying that he’s better in mop-up, no pressure situations than he is in a tie game situation?
Are we talking about Farnsworth, or the best closer in the history of the game?
Sorry, but I agree with others that have said unless his career numbers fall in line with this year’s very small sample size, not sure I see the point.
Gardner is hitting around .295 - .300, OBP over .400 which is good enough for about 3rd overall in the Eastern League and leads the league in stolen bases. I was lucky enough to see him play when Scranton came up to Pawtucket. He stole three bases that game and is quick in the outfield. The Yankees need him more than they need Shelley right now. I’m on board with sending Duncan down and brining up Gardner.
“I’m on board with sending Duncan down and brining up Gardner.”
Couldn’t agree more.
Jeff - You’re right…he looks decent and I think people are not being realistic if they are fascinated by Gardner. It’s not like he his hitting .360 or .370 like Melky was when he was called up a couple years ago, but like I said, they may want to call him up due to the main fact that he would be more useful to the Yankees right now than Shelley is.
The problem with bringing Gardner up to take Shelly’s role as a bench player is that you are taking away valuable experience away from Gardner in the field while he sits on the bench. He could be out in AAA playing everyday and improving instead of coming in and playing rarely in the Bigs. That’s why you can’t call him up until you have some kind of everyday role for him.
I guess I missed the key stats with gardner, his OBP% and speed, something the yankees do lack.
But
how much playing time is he realistically going to get? It would be nice to have him up for his speed but that implies a willingness to let him ride the bench, which I’m fine with.
Also I don’t think the corresponding move should be sending shelly down (though getting him at bats and hot again could be beneficial) but he has not had chances. The smarter move imo is to do whatever you have to do with moeller and take your chances that jorge is good to go.
Maybe when we are sure Posada’s arm is ok we can do something about Gardner. But it would mean carrying 5 outfielders.
The bigger problem is Cano.Something has to be the cause for his precipitious decline at the bat.Eyesight,perhaps, or something more serious?I would trade Cano, Kennedy and Melky right now to the Giants for Lincecuem and Cain.
the “trade proposals”, if thats what you’d call them, that are proposed in the comments section of this blog are getting more ridiculous. With people trying to trade melky and damon like they are exactly the same player, as in melky isn’t under control for longer and is making alot less money, and secondly: why would the giants and/or the pirates want Johnny or Giambi for that matter at all? what do they bring to their respecting clubs that will entice them to trade their good players? People must just type whatever they’re thinking at the moment without even looking at how ridiculous it is. please stop with the nonsense.
and gardner needs to be called up so i can stop staring at minor league numbers all day posted by people who propose these “trades” all day long. do you think melky wasn’t as highly touted as you’re making gardener out to be?
oh my pounder, why dont we just give them jason, shelly and johnny for cain and lincecum…??
i think you keep melky and trade damon. that way you continue the youth movement and keep melky’s defense and arm. damon is completely expendable. an outfield of gardner, melky and abreu has speed and good defense. damon is quite possibly the most expendable player on this team, who is at a high point right now to get max value. eat some salary, trade johnny for a set up man, bring up garnder.
I dont think you trade anyone for Gardner. The answer is simple. Send down Duncan. Hes useless and is horrible. Call up Gardner. To back up Giambi at 1st, you always have Posada(on days he doesnt catch), Betemit and Damon, who was taking some time at 1st last year.
I think the Yankees should trade Melky Caberera for a relief pitcher. He HAS quickly become one of my least favorite Yankees on the team. I don’t see what’s so special about him. He does have a good arm but he’s not super fast and sometimes makes boneheaded plays in the outfield.
If Gardner gets called up, I would be happy.
I still love Melk Man’s arm, I can still picture some great balls he would fire from center field when I saw him last year at Camden during practice. I’m still worried about Cano though, where has his bat gone? Is it just a slumpy year or is there some mechanical issues? Unfortunately technical stuff is a bit beyond me, but I am not favoring a trade. this kid can hit, maybe he just need some glasses or maybe Girardi needs to ride on him a bit harder? We need your quick bat Cano.
And Melky needs to stop sliding into first, he’s going to break his wrist or bust a ligament and that is the last thing we need. Gardner is very interesting and I’m in favor of doing anything to get this team more spark. I don’t think I’d hurt.
Savings Gardner for what ? It’s the same as not using a new car on rainy days.
Gardner can be used for all the time Duncan was used and then some. Late inning defensive replacement and pinch running are only 2 of the things he can be used for. Resting Damon, Melky, Abreu, and Matsui on occasion are others.
Pete: I bet Mariano’s career numbers - or at least his last 4 or 5 seasons - correspond closely with his 2008 numbers in tie games. I’ve been asking myself where I can get those numbers for years now, because my sense is that Mo has been less than pedestrian in tie games for years now.
Do you have access to those numbers? Girardi might find them helpful.
Rockies need a CF. Yankees need a set-up man and lefty reliever. Melky for Brian Fuentes (32, 0-2, 9 saves, 2.45) 3.46 career ERA, over a K per IP. Then bring up Gardner. Then work out a deal with Houston for Ty Wigginton (30, .284-3-9, OPS+ 115). Wigginton is a better righty option than Ensberg was or Duncan is. Wiggy has played in NY, and can fill in at 1b, 3b (if you want to give A-Rod a day at DH), and 2B (benching the .231 hitting Cano against a lefty), and be an emergency corner OF if nec. The Yanks would get a lefty set-up man, bring up speed in Gardner (25 SB at SWB) for CF, and improve the bench with a versatile righty bat. The righty bats on the bench have done nothing this year.
As per Melky…bases loaded, two out, bottom of the 9th and he couldn’t take a strike? Swings at the 2nd pitch? You need to take a strike there. Make the pitcher throw strikes. As nice as Melky is, his OPS+ is still just 93. It was 89 last year and 95 in 2006. An Average OPS+ is 100. Steals could make up for it. Melky has just 3.
In regards to Gardner, he is hitting .500 or so with RISP and 2 out. Nice. 25 SB despite having an ankle problem in April. Damon leads the Yanks with 10. Melky has 3. Jeter just 4. Abreu just 5.
Gardner is at .295-3-25-25 (SB). 9 doubles, 7 triples. OBP of .414. Check that again. FOUR-FOURTEEN. Gardner stole 39 bases in 99 g. last year. Gardner has 44 walks. The Yankees were 3rd in the A.L. in walks last year. They are 10th right now. Giambi is the only one with over 30. Melky has 17. Some plate patience would be welcome on this team right now (Jeter 14, Cano 12, not to mention Betemit (1 walk, 50 AB) and Molina (3 walks in 120 AB)).
Melky (or Gardner) for Fuentes is doable.
I wanted Gardner on this team at the start of the year but could understand why he went to SWB. I didn’t want Ensberg AT ALL. How’d that work out?
Peter; I believe that the size of the stats sample is very small; perphaps a larger one (through Mo career) might give us some indications of pitching poorly in tie games. I do agree with Joe and Jeremy’s comments regarding Mo first 26 games during this season. The “Lopsided Games” stats with 0.00 ERA is contradictory to the routine/traditional role of a Closer.
In baseball, the concentration/mentality/dedication of a Closer is quite different when the team is winning for more than 4 runs, as compared to the Save situation. Also In baseball, the Managers use a Closer when the game (9th) is tie at home.
11 SB for JD. My bad…
Pete,
Dude is getting paid $15 mil to get people out. Not to leave 0-2 cutters in the middle of the plate. I dont give a crap what the score is. DO your job!!!!!
Nothing wrong with having Melky and Garnder, and trading Damon.
These bench guys are always going to be a crap shoot. Barring injuries which would open up a chance for someone to play more regularly, they really don’t get enough ABs to judge them.
Betemit looks fine to me. I’m pretty sure that Duncan had been in a small slump when we brought him back up to NY. Its hard to break out of it given how few abs he gets. The problem with our bench is less a problem of the current guys on our roster as much as it is of how small the bench actually is given our current need for three catchers and our need for a large bullpen, especially during the Joba transition. You can’t really send Duncan down for Gardner though because if you need more than one guy capable of playing the infield. You just can’t assume that there won’t be games that both Giambi and someone else will need to come out of the game.
When Joba is stretched out, perhaps they can cut the bullpen by one. And we ought to be able to go down to two catchers soon. Gardner could take one of those spots but I don’t see him coming up before then. I think its very possible though that Cashman thinks that Gardner is more valuable as a mid season trade chip than as a bench/role player. If that’s the case, his value is probably higher if he is getting ABs everyday and excelling in Scranton than if he is languishing on the bench in NY.
Pete, please please please - stay away from the stats and stick to reporting.
SMALL SAMPLE SIZE!
Your conclusion may be right, but you’ll have to support it with years’ worth of data. Not 6 freaking innings.
Geez…
Yeah, let’s trade Damon and Matsui. Why, we don’t need their skyrocketing averages or OBPS, that’s just crazy talk!
Gardner should definitely be given a chance. Melky has been given the chance and he has been nothing special. The Yanks over rate him because they were so used to seeing Damon and Bernie in CF and forgot what real defense looks like. His defense is good, but he is an awful hitter. There is no reason that the Yanks should be carrying a CF singles hitter. I really don’t know what people see in him. The Yanks needs someone with speed on this team. Gardner can get on base so many ways because of his speed. I think they really need someone like that. Hopefully he is brought up very soon because Duncan isn’t playing anyway so he can take his spot.
Doesn’t Damon have a no-trade clause in his contract? Are these realistic trade ideas?
Great post Bill!
Everyone is saying how Gardner’s numbers are not major league material and that he won’t be good. Well, we should use his speed and also, i don’t have time to look up the numbers but I doubt Melky’s numbers were that much better and I think Gardner needs a shot.
I wonder how long Cashman will wait before he admits he has to make a traecat some point.The Yankees aren’t bad.But With the Tigers playing horrible(Willis was gonna be this bad),Red Sox Hurt the Yankees should be having a field day not .500.
rconn,
Melky w/RISP before yesterday: .296
Using Baseball Reference, which I know Pete has heard of, I quickly found that Mo’s career stats pitching in a tie game are as follows:
OBP againt: .313, SLG: .343, OPS .656
This compares to overall career stats “in save situations” (I cringe even typing that) of
.253 OBP, .270 SLG and .523 OBP
There does appear to be a material difference but it is probably partially attributable to the tie score games including 2nd and third innings of work as a reliever and innings as a starter way back.
Interestingly, Mo does his best work in blowouts (ie games with the Yanks +/- by 4 or more runs) with a career line of .215 OBP, .244 SLG and .455 SLG. And to think we always thought he was “clutch” when the numbers suggest he should be replacing 2007 vintage Mike Myers as mop-up man.
Oops post above was supposed to read .215 OBP, .244 SLG and .459 OPS in blow-outs.
BRING UP GARDNER!
If you guys think Melky is the reason we are losing your crazy. Must teams would a #9 hitter like Melky and who is a good CF. Gardner is no guarntee guys. If he is this much better than Melky than how come he hasnt been called up yet? He also is older than Melky. I say we bring Gardner up and send Duncan donw and give Gardener some playing time, but no way can you trade Melky without seeing what Gardner can do. Ya i know he hits lefties but he is hitting Double and Triple A LHP. I think MLB lefties will be a little different. We have alot more problems than Melky. Its not like Melky is batting below .200 and making errors. Bringing Gardner up is not the move thats gonna save the year
The fact of the matter is this -
Melky Cabrera does a lot of silly things that just drive me and other Yankee fans so crazy. It’s not like he is a rookie yet he is doing very rookie things. Sliding into first base when he should be running, dropping balls in the outfield because he’s looking at the runners on base, and at the plate, the guy does not exactly take his base on balls.
I don’t think of him to be a clutch hitter either. Look at yesterday afternoon. Basesloaded with 2 outs and he swings at the 2nd pitch. Soria threw him ball number one… that’s your que to make him work the count. To make Soria throw strikes. You work the count until you are confident you are getting something good to hit.
He seems very immature to realize that he is playing Centerfield for the New York Yankees… that’s something very special.
I think giving Gardner a shot and trading Melky for a relief pitcher (like Fuentes) would be a very smart option. Gardner seems like someone who can bring energy to the team in ways Melky can’t.
If Brett cannot hit in the MLB… well he always has his speed and defense. Melky has average speed (and seems below average on the base paths). I think Brett can become successful with the Yankees. Even if he’s not the best hitter, we still have 8 other guys who can back him up.
I think Shelley Duncan needs to go as well. I say we go after someone like Ty Winnington. Someone who can help the Yankees in a lot of ways.
could have traded melky and kennedy for santana - as adviced right here in part because gardner was ready last year and showed as much in spring training
still the deal wan’t made melky is much better than Shelly why not send shelly down for a bit and give gardner a try -
maybe pushed a little melky rises to the occassion giving the front office options- if sheeley tears up minir league pitching - trade him before he flops again n the bigs —
these may all be timed for trading deadline
Trade Mussina as well before he reverts to the mean or someone hides the smke and mittors (he may have NTC as well as time on his side)
Sliding into first is ok when the pitcher is covering like last night. If the pitcher can’t find the bag it is harder to tag the runner. People are wrong to say it is never faster, sometimes if you are leaning forward, like a sprinter, it is quicker to dive for the bag, but never feet first.