Pitching matchups for the Reds series
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jun 20, 2008 
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Tonight: RHP Edinson Volquez (9-2, 1.64) vs. RHP Mike Mussina (10-4, 3.87), 7:05, Channel 9
Saturday: RHP Daryl Thompson (debut) vs. RHP Dan Giese (1-1, 1.23), 1:05 p.m. YES
Sunday: RHP Johnny Cueto (5-7, 5.19) vs. LHP Andy Pettitte (7-5, 4.29), 1:05 p.m. YES
Notes: The Reds are at the Stadium for the first time since the Big Red Machine swept the Yankees in the 1976 World Series. Here’s the lineup they ran out there in their last appearance, on Oct. 21, 1976:
Rose 3B
Griffey RF
Morgan 2B
Perez 1B
Driessen DH
Foster LF
Bench C
Geronimo CF
Concepcion SS
Johnny Bench hitting seventh? Wow. … Old friend Andy Phillips is with the Reds as a backup. He is 3 for 20 with four RBI in 14 games. … Thompson hasn’t been officially named the starter but all indications are that he will get the call. Thompson was 3-0, 3.25 in four starts for Triple-A Louisville after going 3-2, 1.76 in 10 starts for Double-A Chattanooga. … The vaunted Jay Bruce has cooled off. The rookie is 7 of 42 in his last 11 games with one RBI and 15 strikeouts. … Get a good look at Ken Griffey Jr. This is the final year of his contract and retirement is beckoning. He’s hitting only .244.
Good thing Andy Phillips took a walk to the Reds. He would have cut into Giambi’s playing time.
Pete can call him the nicest guy since Moses, but he can’t hit for his life.
Sports Illustrated players poll names Derek Jeter baseball’s most overrated
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo....._de-1.html
Hope tonights game isn’t rained out. Making my first trip to the stadium. Should be a good matchup tonight if Moose keeps going the way he has been.
Sports Illustrated players poll names Derek Jeter baseball’s most overrated
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo....._de-1.html
One never knows what a good young prospect will do.
A few hot or cold weeks rarely tell the story.
For those of you who are SURE you got Phil’s and IPK’s number, check out Edinson Volquez’s stats. He pitched a dozen IP in 2005 at age 21. Then 3 dozen in ’06 and 3 dozen in ’07. How did he look to you at the end of his 3 year, 80 IP career?
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....yerId=6401
For what it’s worth, his dad told XM that Junior wants to keep playing in hopes of getting 3,000 hits. He’s a little less than 400 away.
3000 hits for Griffey is 3 solid seasons for a hitter whose bat is slowing down. Best of luck to him getting that milestone, just not this weekend. Always enjoyed watching him play.
For 3000 hits, it looks like a long shot to me. In 2005 thru 2007, he put up 402 hits (he needs 384). From 2006 thru this year, he has about an .800 OPS. So, that means 3 healthy years thru age 41 and a team that will give a .750-.800 OPS OF/DH guy 500+ ABs. Very, very long shot. It probably means playing CHEAP for a Pittsburg or Kansas City.
Would an AL bottom feeder (KC) pay him 3/9$m to put fannies in the seats? If he stays healthy, he might pass Willie in HRs. If you were a GM, what would you pay/how could you use a declining Ken Griffey Jr?
New Guy… the poll prior to that named the two picks that the players would WANT on their team. A-Rod was first and Jeter was second. So what does that tell you?
To me, it means that because they are not on their team, some 10% of players think he is over rated.
Its a non-story.
Nice to see that some things since 1976 haven’t changed. There will still be a Griffey in the lineup.
Also nice story in todays Daily News by Willie Randolph on his firing. What I found the MOST interesting was as a parting gift as he was walking out the door Omar gave him an enevelope and told him to look it opver wih his agent. Whatwas it? A copy of hi contract where it says if he says anything bad about the team he could forfeit the money he has coming to him. Nice….
Gayle,
You have to wonder if simply by telling his story the Wilpons will try to enforce that contract clause.
I had such hope for the Yanks in 1976, but that Reds team was brutal. Probably the best offensive team of the past 50-60 years. They had an OPS+ of 129 AS A TEAM. By comparison, no Yankees team since 1935, and there were plenty of great ones, had an OPS+ higher than 119. They scored 857 runs, unheard of at that time (no American League team reached 750 runs; only the Phillies, at 87 fewer runs were within a 100 of them).
Oddly it was the Reds rather ordinary pitching that did the Yankees in that year.
1976 reminds me of Munson. What a great year he had. Great ALCS too. Alas, at 9 for 17, he was about the only Yankee to bring his bat to the 1976 World Series.
“A copy of hi contract where it says if he says anything bad about the team he could forfeit the money he has coming to him”
Think that’s more or less standard fare for high level employees leaving any organization yet continuing to be remain on their payroll. Not much Willie can say bad about the organization that hasn’t already been demonstrated in their actions.
Doreen:
Don’t think Willie telling of his surprise about being fired and the conversation he had w/ Minaya before heading for Anaheim constitutes a a problem as far as the remainder of his contract goes.
the yanks have now passed oakland so the rays and sox are the only teams between them and the playoffs at this point. the rays just swept the cubs so they are not going away anytime soon.
the next homestand ends with 4 v. boston and 2 v. tampa bay.
Arroyo better not stay in NY either, Cash don’t even think about it.
Omar the dog would just LOVE to void Willie’s contract! probly get him an extension from the Wilpons…
Have they put Matsui on the 60-day DL already, Pete?
Wouldn’t worry about it Brandon. If they make a move at all, it’s going to be for someone better than they can get from the minors. If they’re looking to fill the #5 slot, then a parade of Gieses, Hornes, IPKs, etc. should suffice.
Now if they’re looking to replace Wang, then you’re talking a bigger name and real prosepcts being dealt. I think they could probably stay as is and make the playoffs. Don’t know if they can succeed in the playoffs as is though. We’ll see what July brings.
Wait till this year: 10 reasons Cubs could go all the way
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....ortCat=mlb
.
Just the fact that THIS article would be posted the very day after the Cubs completely fell apart last night to accomplish a TRUE CUBS FEAT, which is getting swept by the freakin’ RAYS is the kiss of death. As much as I love the Cubs AND love the Yankees, my Dad was right 40 years ago and remains right today when he said, ” It’s no problem being a Cubs and a Yankees fan, son. It’s not like there is any chance that they will ever play each other in the World Series in our lifetimes “. ANYONE that can merely read the history of the Cubs should realize, that on June 20th…..JUNE 20TH ?????….they could have a 12 game lead and that means nothing. Truth is what it is….any REAL Cubs fan will only believe they have a chance to win the World Series AFTER they see on TV that championship trophy being given to the owner of the team. And even then, most will simply start pinching themselves over and over to make sure that it is real. Attending the victory parade may help…but again….much self pinching will be seen. And ultimately , IF the Cubs ever did make it to a World Series and actually win in….Oh to be a Funeral Director at that time,,,because the number of people that will both keel over from shock and that will gladly jump into that Pine Box will soar. You’ll know who they are, because when they have the wake, they’ll all be wearing the Same Cubs gear they have had on since that World Series began.
Get a good look at Jr? He’s not retiring anytime soon, he will be at the stadium at the new stadium at least 9 times next year when hes playing for the Rays.
Griffey can still be an effectiveproductive hitter, but he needs to move to the AL to rest his legs as a DH. Stronger legs will quicken his bat. Not sure there’s a great fit anywhere, because Seattle is just plain awful.
As for replacing Wang… I think they’ll stay with what they have unless someonme attractive becomes available in a salary dump. Then you have to decide if you want the contract of an underachieving AJ Burnett or an overpaid Gil Meche. none of the minor league starters is good enough to help much. Keep an eye out for a possible Eric Bedard dumping since he has struggled out West and they have purged the front office. Problem is they grossly overpaid for Bedard and may be too embarassed to make a reasonable deal.
ERâ„¢ (The Last Yankee Fanâ„¢) …Dude, it would be SO nice if you just went back to picking your nose and watching some more SpongeBob. Stop bothering the big people, it looks like you wet your pants again, Junior.
“Problem is they grossly overpaid for Bedard and may be too embarassed to make a reasonable deal.”
Yup, and that’s why I doubt they move him. They can’t possibly get back close to what they gave. I think Ichiro, Bedard and Hernandez stay and they’ll see what they can get for Beltre and Ibanez.
As much as I want Bedard I think you’re right, Seattle isn’t going to trade him. I wish they would because I think he would be fantastic on the Yankees but it doens’t make sense for the Mariners to trade him when his value is so low. He isn’t a free agent until after the 2009 season so I doubt they would trade him until the offseason or maybe even the trade deadline next year.
I think two options the yanks will look at are Gil Meche and Ben Sheets. The Brewers claim they can still make the playoffs, which is possible. However, if they don’t make up any ground between now and July 31 they would be stupid to keep Sheets. He is injury prone but I think the Yanks could catch lightening in a bottle with him because he has ace stuff. Sheets, Chamberlain, Moose, Pettitte could be a very formidable starting 4 in the playoffs.
Cashman will have to give up significant talent but I think it would be worth it.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....ortCat=mlb
Best line!
Um yeah they might run away with the division, but will they make it out of the first round of the playoffs?
Ahh, 1976 Yankees.
We were so young and innocent.
“However, if they don’t make up any ground between now and July 31 they would be stupid to keep Sheets.”
Only 5 out in the AILC, so they’d probably have to lose ground to make that move. Teams match pretty well though. Brewers have a lot of young position guys, but not a lot of of good young pitching in their system. I too think Sheets will take quite a bit to get though. I’d think it would take one guy off of SJ’s List of Untouchables to get it done.
Well, if they’ve improved any from last year, they will…
Who’s gonna beat them? The D-Backs, the Dodgers? I would say that this is the Cubs best chance in a while to make the World Series.
My roommate is the big Cubs fan, with me being the Yankees fan. Our postseason record last October was 1-6, with me having the better of the two teams… That postseason sucked for us both, but I suppose it could have been worse if our teams didn’t even make the playoffs…
The Brewers are only two games out of the wildcard, trailing an overachieving and now slumping Cardinals team, so I’m not sure I see them unloading Sheets.
My college age son and I thought that for a change of pace on Sunday we’d take a drive and catch either a Scranton or Trenton game. Anyone have any thoughts about which might be a more interesting experience?
“SI asked MLB players in a separate survey last week, “Whom would you pick to build a team around?”, A-Rod ranked first and Jeter second, perhaps offering a slight contradiction.”
Geronimo was in the line up? Any chance of seeing Sitting Bull this weekend?
“Well, if they’ve improved any from last year, they will…
Who’s gonna beat them? The D-Backs, the Dodgers? I would say that this is the Cubs best chance in a while to make the World Series.”
Chances don’t come much better than the one they had in October 2003.
I’d worry about the D’backs in a short series because of Webb and Haren. If healthy, that trumps what the Cubs bring to the table. Especially true if Sweet Lou manages Zambrano’s playoff starts the way he did last season.
Yes the Brewers would have to lose some ground for my proposed trade to work. I don’t think the Yankees would have to give up any of their blue chip prospects just for a rental.
Hypothetically, lets say the Brewers fall out of contention by the end of July what would it take to get Sheets? I think they would take Horne, McAllister/Betances, Tabata. Or if they want more pitching instead of Tabata go with Horne, Kennedy, McAllister/Betances. If the Brewers are out of contention I could definitely see a deal getting done without giving up Jackson, Brackman, Melancon, Hughes, Montero.
Brewers aren’t unloading Sheets and the Tribe are not giving any window to sign CC. On the first guy I wouldn’t touch Ben w/ a 2o foot pole, he is a DL waiting to happen, As for CC see you in 09′
Fearless prediction: Saturday’s game is going to be ugly.
“SI asked MLB players in a separate survey last week, “Whom would you pick to build a team around?â€, A-Rod ranked first and Jeter second, perhaps offering a slight contradiction.â€
Couple thoughts:
1) How can the guy acknowledged to be the best overall player in the game be overrated??? Is there something higher than “the best” that I’m unfamiliar with?
2) I think Jeter is overrated now and I sure as hell wouldn’t take 2008 Derek Jeter to start my team. 1996 Jeter?? Sure, but 2008 Jeter isn’t among the 1st 30 players I’d take.
3) It’s a mindnumbingly stupid survey.
Bench hitting 7th is no surprise, Pete…Sparky Anderson probably STILL has never heard of Bill James.
I would vote for Trenton so you can see Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata. There’s no position player with that kind of potential in Scranton, in fact most of the lineup is retreads and 4-A type talent. You might also see Mark Melancon out of the bullpen.
The guys at Scranton I’d most want to see are Daniel McCutchen as a starter and David Robertson out of the bullpen.
Wow Brandon I didn’t know your knowledge was so absolute. Right now the Brewers aren’t unloading Sheets but if they fall out of contention by the trade deadling I guarantee you they will.
Also news today that Tino will be one of the managers for the Futures Game this year. The other will be Davey JOhnson. Good for Tino.
“I think they would take Horne, McAllister/Betances, Tabata. Or if they want more pitching instead of Tabata go with Horne, Kennedy, McAllister/Betances. If the Brewers are out of contention I could definitely see a deal getting done without giving up Jackson, Brackman, Melancon, Hughes, Montero”
I think Horne is overrated by Yanks fans and Tabata’s value isn’t especially high. I do think the Horne, Kennedy, Single A pitcher proposal could work, in fact it’s a pretty high prioce, but I’d guess the Brewers would really push for Melancon, who’d really help address a big need that teams has.
I had forgetten about the WC, which the Brewers are very much in the thick of. That’ll be harder than I thought.
I maybe totally late with this but….
Did anyone see the video on ESPN of the switch pitcher for the Yankees?
It was hilarious
That’s my buddy George hitting 6th in the Big Red Machine! I played tennis with his daughter in college. He’d come to a lot of our matches.
Sheets would be the one I would target, because i think he’ll be the ace-type pitcher with the lowest (most reasonable) price tag.
you’re not going to have to give up an untouchable to get him, and like mentioned, the Brewers and Yankees match up very well with regards to what each have in their orgnazations, and what they need.
Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, and a third player would be a ballpark to a reasonable offer.
But i agree, as long as the Brewers are within 5 games of that Wild Card, and especially if Zambrano’s shoulder injury is significant, you wont see Sheets going anywhere.
Curt Schilling is having season-ending surgery
“Curt Schilling is having season-ending surgery”
You made my day if that is true. Is Ortiz joining him?
Bryan, you can see that the Mets’ class deficiencies go all the way through their organization, even down to their short-season A ball team. Does it take a lot of intelligence to just get into the box that’s your best side? Of course, it’s probable he can’t hit from either side.
“Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, and a third player would be a ballpark to a reasonable offer.”
Think the Brewers might take the draft picks rather than that, but who knows? I don’t think the Brewers fall far enough out anyway. 1 game in the AILC behind the likely to be fading Cards (unless they decide to get in on Bedard or something). Don’t see them being anywhere near out of the hunt a month from now.
http://www.boston.com/sports/b.....tra_bases/
Schilling to have surgery, done for season
Link|Comments (0) Posted by Steve Silva, Boston.com Staff June 20, 2008 09:22 AM
Curt Schilling’s season is over and there is a good chance he’s thrown his last pitch in the major leagues as the Red Sox righthander is going to have surgery on his right shoulder Monday in Philadelphia.
“I’m not exactly sure [what type of surgery it's going to be],” Schilling said this morning on WEEI’s Dennis and Callahan show. “We’re still nailing down exactly what kind of surgery it’s going to be.”
When asked if this will end the season for the Red Sox righthander, he replied, “yes.”
“I’m going in to make it not hurt anymore,” Schilling said.
We’ll have more on this in a bit …
“Curt Schilling is having season-ending surgery”
Might be career ending surgery. Doesn’t make any difference in the AL East race though.
“I think Horne is overrated by Yanks fans”
He was a near-top 100 in all of baseball. He has really good stuff, when he commands it. He had TJ, which is why he was old for AA last year…so it’s not like he’s a vastly more experienced pitcher beating up on kids with no plan. That’s Aceves. Horne has really good stuff, with command he could be a #3. He’s no Joba, but he’s the next tier down.
“Curt Schilling is having season-ending surgery”
You mean the surgery he told us he needed in January?
So, the Red Sox made Schilling go a different means than getting surgery, which could have possibly had him back for the end of the season, and now he hasn’t thrown one pitch all season and won’t.
Gotta love it. Karma’s a killer.
“I’m not exactly sure [what type of surgery it’s going to be],†Schilling said this morning on WEEI’s Dennis and Callahan show. “We’re still nailing down exactly what kind of surgery it’s going to be.â€
They should just out a rusty nail in it.
“Think the Brewers might take the draft picks rather than that, but who knows?”
I dunno…they could get at least one higher ceiling guy with the picks (though next year’s class is said to be weak). But both Ian and Robertson are close to the majors, and thus closer to achieving their potential than a draft pick would be.
“Might be career ending surgery. Doesn’t make any difference in the AL East race though.”
Yea – but it makes a difference to baseball. Schilling is a scum bag and his absence will benefit the greater good.
“I think Horne is overrated by Yanks fans and Tabata’s value isn’t especially high. I do think the Horne, Kennedy, Single A pitcher proposal could work, in fact it’s a pretty high prioce, but I’d guess the Brewers would really push for Melancon, who’d really help address a big need that teams has.”
Horne just missed the cut for Baseball America’s top 100 list.
I don’t know anybody that think he’s a star, but he’s better than the top pitching prospects of several teams.
I think everyone WAY overestimates what it would take to get half a season of a pitcher from an out of contention team (note, this out of contention is the key, and why trades won’t happen until the deadline).
You will NOT see 1-2 ‘top 100′ prospects being traded for a rental. Horne+Kennedy+Tabata would be 2 ‘top 100′ prospects and an almost ‘top 100′ prospect. That’s ridiculous.
http://www.baseballamerica.com.....65655.html
I don’t know where they’d be listed -now- (all three have probably lost value due to injury, injury+underperforming, and underperforming), but none have given me that ‘well, we were wrong’ vibe.
FYI, Joba was #3, Tabata was #37, Austin Jackson, #41, Kennedy #45.
“I think Horne is overrated by Yanks fans”
Those who are fans of prospects, I was at S/WB last night. It was my second chance to see Horne since his return from injury. Had trouble with strike zone and got hit around in one inning, but otherwise pretty good. One thing is for sure, at best he is a 4th or 5th starter and don’t buy anyone selling you otherwise.
Also, I’ve seen Brett Gardner now about 12x this year. He is an extra part player. 4th OF or pinch runner type. Those who have clamored to see him over Melky need to rethink that. He’s at best equal to Melky – but I believe there is still some growth yet in Melky. Unlike Gardner, he’s done most of his development at the major league level.
Also Shelly Duncan hit a towering HR. He is the definition of a AAAA player.
“He’s no Joba, but he’s the next tier down”
He’s several tiers down. Hughes is the next tier down from Joba. Horne is a good distance below that.
Alan Horne was selected Eastern League Pitcher of the Year in 2007. So I guess Yankees fans are over-rating him?
Fred, you’ve been hitting the hard cider if you think the ’76 Reds were a better team or even a better offense than the ’81 Yankees.
Wow Brandon I didn’t know your knowledge was so absolute. Right now the Brewers aren’t unloading Sheets but if they fall out of contention by the trade deadling I guarantee you they will.
You can make that move if you want another Carl Pavano waiting to happen.
““Ian Kennedy, David Robertson, and a third player would be a ballpark to a reasonable offer.â€
Think the Brewers might take the draft picks rather than that, but who knows? I don’t think the Brewers fall far enough out anyway. 1 game in the AILC behind the likely to be fading Cards (unless they decide to get in on Bedard or something). Don’t see them being anywhere near out of the hunt a month from now.”
You think draft picks are worth more than two almost ML ready prospects? Do the Brewers even pay over slot?
“FYI, Joba was #3, Tabata was #37, Austin Jackson, #41, Kennedy #45.”
That was 4 months ago. Tabata and Kennedy have lost some stature since, while Jackson, I believe has gained some. Joba obviously has panned out as you’d expect the #3 overall propsect to.
I know this is kind of an opinion question, but do we have a strong shot at hitting Volquez tonight? and/or winning the game… I mean I look at his era I see those 9 wins… this guy is no joke… and do we think moose can hold up long enough for this to be a pitchers duel?
(sorry not really on topic I know)
“One thing is for sure, at best he is a 4th or 5th starter and don’t buy anyone selling you otherwise.”
Wow, you saw him once, so you must be more correct than the professional talent evaluators–who say he could be a #3 if he keeps his command.
““He’s no Joba, but he’s the next tier downâ€
He’s several tiers down. Hughes is the next tier down from Joba. Horne is a good distance below that.”
How many tiers do you have? 100?
Joba and Hughes are both top tier talents – pretty much no doubt #1/#2s, who’ve shown flashes of ML brilliance (Joba more so than Hughes). Hughes is younger.
The 2nd tier would be your no doubt #3s or potential #2s.
3rd would be potential #3s, with #5 floors (as in, there’s little doubt they’ll be above average ML pitchers).
I’d put Horne and Kennedy in between 2 and 3.
The problem that teams will have with getting draft picks for some of these players comes from how well the draft looks for the next year. With talk of it being a weak looking field next year, GM might lean toward making a trade at the deadline in order to get better than just the weaker draft picks.
Getting an early draft pick means nothing if you don’t have much to choose from.
One thing is for sure, at best he is a 4th or 5th starter and don’t buy anyone selling you otherwise.
Not even Chad Jennings believes that
I think some Yankee fans underestimate Horne.
He’s well thought of by scouts around the game.
If he didn’t get hurt, he would probably be in the rotation right now.
If they can’t make a deal for a starter, he still may end up being in the mix for the rotation in the second half of the season.
There are teams in baseball who think Horne is a better prospect than Kennedy.
Kennedy has no trade value right now because of how badly he struggled at the major league level.
A lot of teams will take on a player with potential before they take one on who has struggled bigtime at the ML level. Its tougher to sell to your ownership a guy like Kennedy right now than a guy like Horne.
Kennedy wouldn’t be a centerpiece of any large scale deal for the Yankees. For him to be included in a deal, pitchers like Melancon, Hughes, Betances or McAllister (all guys who are highly thought of by scouts) would also have to be involved.
OYF brings up a great point about Volquez. He’s the classic case of an organization being impatient with a young, talented pitcher.
As good as Josh Hamilton is, you don’t give up a 24 year old ace with his talent.
That’s why the Yankees aren’t going to trade Phil Hughes. They have no reason to do it and every reason to be patient with him and get him back to pitching the way he can. His upside is too great to give up on at 21 years old.
“I know this is kind of an opinion question, but do we have a strong shot at hitting Volquez tonight? and/or winning the game… I mean I look at his era I see those 9 wins… this guy is no joke… and do we think moose can hold up long enough for this to be a pitchers duel?
(sorry not really on topic I know)”
I’m really interested in this game.
Volquez has one thing very similar to Joba – when he gets two strikes on a hitter, he almost ALWAYS throws a strikeout pitch outside the strike zone (changeup low, or fastball high and away). He gets a LOT of swinging strikes on impossible to hit pitches (like Joba’s slider).
If the Yankees can lay off those pitches? He’ll give up BBs. If not? It’ll be a long night.
The Sawx got 3 runs off him for his season worst outing.
“Wow, you saw him once, so you must be more correct than the professional talent evaluators–who say he could be a #3 if he keeps his command.”
nope their wrong.. after seeing Horne for one game he OBVIOUSLY knows way more then they do about Horne’s major league projection.
“You think draft picks are worth more than two almost ML ready prospects? Do the Brewers even pay over slot?”
I don’t think they trade an ace level pitcher for a guy with #4 starter upside and a reliever who doesn’t throw hard and may well be an Edwar Ramirez redux. Unless the 3rd plater is something special.
“You will NOT see 1-2 ‘top 100′ prospects being traded for a rental. Horne+Kennedy+Tabata would be 2 ‘top 100′ prospects and an almost ‘top 100′ prospect. That’s ridiculous.”
The only problem with that statement is that Kennedy has lost a lot of value around the league because of his poor beginning to the season. Tabata has lost value as well with his attitude problems.
Tabata+Horne+Kennedy is overpaying for Sheets but the market for half-season rental pitchers is overpriced to begin with.
This is all speculation anyways, like others have said the Brewers are still in the thick of it in the NL central and wild card.
SamVA tonight might be a night to go out and have meal, I think Volquez stops the streak tonight, he’s just too good, Moose would have to pitch a near no hitter to beat him.
“You can make that move if you want another Carl Pavano waiting to happen.”
Except getting Sheets is leagues better than Pavano, costs way less and if the Yankees were to trade for him he’d only be on the team for 2-3 months. Yeah exactly like Carl Pavano.
i just made a new yankees blog if anyone wants to see it.
benfica356.blogspot.com or click my name
I saw him twice and I believe my eyes.
And being the EL pitcher of the year is great, but that’s a far way off from MLB.
He’s good, it’s not a knock on him that I don’t believe him to be a top of the line starter.
By the way, I wrote the same about IPK on this blog in November and got the same response.
Horne is 25, if he was doing what he is doing at 22 it would be another story.
Brandon-
I have to work… I was trying to decide whether or not to record it or not… but I was thinking the same thing…
Imagine if we could sign Volquez… (sorry I just HAD to say that)
“You think draft picks are worth more than two almost ML ready prospects? Do the Brewers even pay over slot?”
i dont believe they do… and they just had a massive haul of players in this year’s draft… dont remember what the exact total was, and how many of them they will sign, but i know it was something like 7 or 8 picks in the top 100 or 150, if my memory is correct.
if they picked a lot of young talent, id guess theyd go less players/more mlb-ready talent with Sheets, should they decide to move him.
this was my argument with the Indians, too… they dont pay over slot to make the 2 draft picks for Sabathia really worth it anyway, so just take the best package right now, or at the deadline, and be done with it.
I wouldn’t count the Yankees out of this game tonight just yet. They just knocked two of the NL’s top line starters around this past week, including the defending NL Cy Young.
“The Sawx got 3 runs off him for his season worst outing.”
Saw a good chunk of that game. Volquez went 7 and allowed 2 earned (3 overall). He was very good. Sox made him throw a lot of pitches, but he still only walked 1 and fanned 9. Change-up was truly outstanding.
“I’d put Horne and Kennedy in between 2 and 3.”
Hey – I hope you are right, but for me IPK is not going to be a 2 or a 3 unless he develops much better control.
When people compare him to Moose, I think they are comparing him to Moose now or a couple of years ago. IPK lives around 88-91 on his fastball and when Moose was IPK’s age he topped out around 94 mph fastball.
I hope IPK gets much better, but he is going to have to be in better control of his location b/c he doesn’t have the stuff to make a mistake and survive long.
the one thing that might push the Brewers in to trading Sheets over not treading him, or to lessening the package of players going over, is to take a contract they dont want anymore…
maybe agree take on Bill Hall and the $$ owed to him for the next couple seasons. He can play a variety of OF and IF positions, and has pop off the bench. good versitility, and the Brewers can use the payroll space.
While Kennedy lost some value, he will still get some decent concideration. Remember his comments about NY, which might explain his problems more than his lack of ability.
Tabata, being a kid, hasn’t really lost any value in a trading piece. Emotional struggles at his age aren’t going to be a major concern being that he seemed to get things heading in the right direction in short order.
That player survey’s a blessing in disguise. What happened the last time Jeter was called overrated by his peers? He had an MVP season. Of course the fact that he didn’t win is irrelevant, that they gave it to a guy who wasn’t even MVP of his own team was a joke, and that he was left off the Minnesota guy’s ballot is another story.
Huh! Schilling was right. He needed surgery and the Sox wouldn’t let him. Guess they knew what they were doing, though. Masterson’s been pretty good filling out the rotation.
“As good as Josh Hamilton is, you don’t give up a 24 year old ace with his talent.”
I’m not sure I agree 100% with that but its a good debate to have. I think for a team like Texas, who has struggled for awhile to develop ace pitchers, Volquez should have been untouchable. However looking at that trade in a void, Hamilton is probably the more valuable commodity.
Texas has never had trouble developing young guys who hit well but they still don’t have an ace on their staff. Even though Hamilton is a great pickup for them, they should have kept Volquez.
“Sox made him throw a lot of pitches, but he still only walked 1 and fanned 9.”
thats gotta be the game plan going in. i think i read that he has a 4.5/9 bb/IP ratio, or something close to that… make him throw pitches, and get into that bullpen.
Willie Buck, at age 22, Alan Horne was in college. There have been a lot of pitchers who got a late start in the Majors and they turned out ok. Two that come to mind are a couple of 26 year olds…Ron Guidry and Warren Spahn. Perhaps you’ve heard of them.
volquez is going to roll into YS this afternoon and take the hill in front of 54 thousand for the first time, and we’ll see how he does.
volquez threw 7 innings, 7H, 9K last week and the sox won. if thats what he throws today, then the yankees are just gonna have to do the same thing.
I know now im completely playing fantasy GM, but what would it take in the parallel universe in which we could actually acquire a teams most coveted pitching prospect who has actually proven far past the point of just being major league ready, and actually attained the rank of the major league’s most dominant… (k totals, ERA, twice allowing 3 runs) Almost a definite ace for years to come…. what would it take to get him? not including AJAX of Joba.. (or a package of A-ROD and Jete haha)
“Hey – I hope you are right, but for me IPK is not going to be a 2 or a 3 unless he develops much better control. ”
I think you are misunderstanding V. He was saying that he thinks IPK is a tier 2 or 3 prospect (on his scale). According to his previous post that translates to a 4 or 5 starter with a #3 potential. I think that is a little ambitious for Kennedy and not ambitious enough for Horne.
In my eyes Kennedy will be a 4 or 5 with not much more upside but I think Horne will be a solid 3 and maybe even better.
In that ballpark Patrick, you can find guys who can deliver offense. Maybe not with Hamilton’s talent but, you can get offense from players in that ballpark.
A guy like Volquez? Man, they don’t grow on trees.
Ben Sheets is not on the trade market and chances are he won’t be. If Zambrano is going to be out for a long time, that entire division is wide open. I don’t see the Brewers trading him.
I wouldn’t think of trading any A level prospect for Sheets or anybody else that is a rental for a half season.
Montero, Brackman, Hughes, Melancon and AJax are off limits.
Anybody else? Depends on the deal.
“He’s good, it’s not a knock on him that I don’t believe him to be a top of the line starter.”
Nothing more than a 4/5 and “not top of the line” are very different. League average 4/5 production is an ERA of 5 or more. Even in last year’s much-ballyhooed Red Sox rotation, their back end put up numbers like that.
“By the way, I wrote the same about IPK on this blog in November and got the same response.”
Anyone who thought Kennedy would be more than a back-of-the-rotation guy was kind of fooling himself. The appeal of him, to me, was that I thought he could provide that league average production cheap and consistently for a long time starting this year.
“Ron Guidry and Warren Spahn. Perhaps you’ve heard of them.”
yes, because Alan Horne is the next Warren Spahn or Ron Guidry.
““I’d put Horne and Kennedy in between 2 and 3.â€
Hey – I hope you are right, but for me IPK is not going to be a 2 or a 3 unless he develops much better control.
When people compare him to Moose, I think they are comparing him to Moose now or a couple of years ago. IPK lives around 88-91 on his fastball and when Moose was IPK’s age he topped out around 94 mph fastball.
I hope IPK gets much better, but he is going to have to be in better control of his location b/c he doesn’t have the stuff to make a mistake and survive long.”
Oh, no way is Kennedy a #2 (Pettitte at his peak was an excellent #2).
He has a #3 ceiling, but he’s practically guaranteed to end up a solid #4, #5.
I have a feeling the goal with him is to get him back to the majors, hope he’s somewhat successful for the rest of the year, then trade him in the offseason.
You never know!
Turn Two-
be nice, Kennedy is also the next Maddux and Hughes the rocket.. (roid free) ohh and Joba he is a mixture between the rocket, Maddux, Oswalt, Peavy, and Rivera… oh and while i’m at it pedro and santana as well
I didn’t say that Horne was the next Guidry or Spahn, did I? I only said that they were two of many that same up at a laster age and excelled. Don’t add things that weren’t there.
***came up***
A handful of starts is not enough to dramatically diminish Kennedy’s value. Intelligent baseball people will chalk it up to him being rushed a bit and overthrowing in an effort to impress.
I’ve seen Alan Horne pitch at least a dozen times (in college) and I believe he’s a # 3 starter at best. He doesn’t have the dominant pitch(es) a # 1 or # 2 needs. For that matter, neither do Kennedy, Guice, Rasner, Wright, Marquez and many other Yankees prospects.
I agree three of the Yankees top 15 prospects for a summer rental is too high a price to pay, unless a somewhat reasonable extension can be part of it. If the Brewers, Indians or other would-be sellers won’t allow a negotiating window the quality of what they get is not going to be nearly as good.
If any talks take place involving Sheets, lets try to include Matt LaPorta in the deal. He would cost a very good pitching prospect, but he’s a very good, very powerful RH hitter who could be the 1B of the future.
“Two that come to mind are a couple of 26 year olds…Ron Guidry and Warren Spahn. Perhaps you’ve heard of them.”
I have heard of them, can you make a better comp from players in their primes prior to the 1970′s?
No joke, I’m interested in your point but Guidy and Spahn pitched over 25 yrs ago.
I’m aware that Horne was in college when he was 22 and some injuries slowed development, if you read closer, I said I believes he could be a MLB pitcher, but by 25 we usually know what a player is. If you think guys like Horne or IPK will be 2 or 3 type starters, I for one hope you’re right, but I don’t agree.
“In that ballpark Patrick, you can find guys who can deliver offense. Maybe not with Hamilton’s talent but, you can get offense from players in that ballpark.
A guy like Volquez? Man, they don’t grow on trees.”
For a team like Texas who is starved for great young pitching, I totally agree. Is a young pitcher like Volquez more valuable than Hamilton though? (if we disregard what teams made the trade) I’m not sure.
I think your analysis of Sheets is probably right but I think he’d be a perfect fit if the Brewers fall out of the race between now and July 31.
“If any talks take place involving Sheets, lets try to include Matt LaPorta in the deal. He would cost a very good pitching prospect, but he’s a very good, very powerful RH hitter who could be the 1B of the future.”
I think they’re not looking to trade LaPorta. I think the Brewers want to move Fielder instead, and have LaPorta take over as THEIR 1B of the future.
So, I think Fielder will become available, perhaps as soon as next year or the winter of 09-10.
FWIW, Brewers have had a pretty damn good bit of success in their recent drafts, so someone over there knows what they’re doing. Gallardo, Hart, Braun, Weeks, Fielder, Parra, etc. All contributors. Laporta and Gamel are dominating in AA and close. That suggests to me that they will keep Sheets and take the picks unless they were wowed by somebody.
If Alan Horne turns into a solid #4 starter in MLB, he will make approx. 50 million dollars in his career.
Not bad work if you can get it! lol
Seriously, not every prospect projects to be a top guy in a rotation.
On a team like the Yankees, a team that can score runs in bunches, if a guy like Horne can give them solid #4 starter production (think David Wells-type production when he was the #4 guy in the Yankees rotation), he could have a nice career.
We all get too caught up in aces when discussing pitching. The best pitching staffs are ones that are balanced.
Guys like Chamberlain, Brackman and Hughes have top end starter potential. A guy like Wang has already ascended to that level. The Yankees need more back end guys so they don’t overpay for them in the future. Horne could be one of those guys. If he’s traded, he could bring back a guy that ends up being another solid arm in the rotation. Either way, he has value if he stays healthy.
Nothing against Rasner or Giese but, if Horne didn’t get hurt, I’d take him over either one of those guys right now for a slot in the Yankees rotation.
Think this Volquez guy is good or something?
I can’t believe I’m saying this (still), but I’m actually really glad Moose is pitching tonight.
Let’s get win 11!
the yankees are playing great baseball right now, and they have an open spot in the rotation and a bunch of guys who have a tremendous opportunity in front of them. whoever steps up when given the chance could get 5-10 mlb starts till phil gets back or someone comes in from somewhere else.
giese gets the first crack at it tomorrow vs another 1st start guy. if he cant get it done, one of: horne, igawa, karstens or ponson will get the next shot. whoever pitches well gets another shot to keep it.
so far, Rasner has stepped up and grabbed him a rotation spot, now its someone else’s turn.
The Hamilton/Volquez trade was a good one for both teams and rare in that they’re both paying off immediate dividends. The debate on talk radio is would you want the MVP candidate or the Cy Young candidate? Someone who nails down your rotation or someone to help drive the offense (triple crown threat).
“So, I think Fielder will become available, perhaps as soon as next year or the winter of 09-10.”
Agree 100%. Have heard LaPorta’s OF play was improving but still considerably below MLB standards. I think they look to move Fielder for pitching in the next 12-24 months.
“I said I believes he could be a MLB pitcher, but by 25 we usually know what a player is.”
The guy’s had two pro seasons, less than 300 IP. He’s got a career WHIP of 1.34 and a solid career K:BB of 2.5:1 or so. Not an ace, no. But those are solid peripherals. I don’t think anyone puts Kennedy as a #2. I think he could have seasons in which he really keeps his walks down and pitches like a #3. I think that he could be a solid #4 guy for most of his career, he just need to learn how to pitch to guys who adjust to him from AB to AB.
10 wins in a row…..HERE WE COME !…
Tavarez is available again. I hope the Yankees don’t think they can find “lightning in a bottle” with him.
curt schilling is gonna have season ending surgery.
Patrick, you raise a great question: Would you rather have an every day MLB player, or a Cy Young talent that pitches once every five games?
“So, I think Fielder will become available, perhaps as soon as next year or the winter of 09-10.”
totally agree. but when i mentioned that here on the boards, i was ripped a new one. i guess people didnt like the thought of having a 1B who could hit 50 HRs in behind ARod.
sj-
So do you think after a few starts in the minors if he is doing well they will bring him up as the 5th starter?
I’m really hoping that Ponson is a one start deal than he is gone. He is a bad apple.
Whozat:
Nothing particularly good about a 1.34 WHIP. Especially in the Eastern and International Leagues.
I have a feeling Cashman will end up putting a solid offer together for CC if the Indians are serious about dealing him, but the offer -won’t- be leaked to the press in advance.
Last week of July, it’d be interesting to see what happens.
“totally agree. but when i mentioned that here on the boards, i was ripped a new one. i guess people didnt like the thought of having a 1B who could hit 50 HRs in behind ARod.”
Replace 1B with DH.
You also might have to give him a 6-8 year deal, and his knees give out halfway through it.
“You also might have to give him a 6-8 year deal, and his knees give out halfway through it.”
Also, how’s that 50 HR pace going this year?
Willie Buck, you wanted a more recent example of a pitcher that succeeded late? How about Wang? How about Volquez? He’ll be 25 in two weeks. He was brutal until this year.
“The debate on talk radio is would you want the MVP candidate or the Cy Young candidate? ”
Depends on the team but I’d say MVP candidate.
Regular season the MVP candidate will be more valuable but in the playoffs the Cy Young candidate will be more valuable.
If I’m Texas I’d rather have the CY candidate since that team is starved for good pitching and has been for several years.
I have a feeling Cashman will end up putting a solid offer together for CC if the Indians are serious about dealing him, but the offer -won’t- be leaked to the press in advance.
I highly,highly doubt it.
“I highly,highly doubt it.”
I didn’t say Cashman would land him. But he’s been playing coy, and I have a feeling they’ll make a solid offer.
what basis does anyone have to assume Prince Fielder, who’s like, what, 24 or so, will have his knees completely fail him when he’s 27 or 28 years old? lets get real.
and to insinuate that Fielder couldnt pound 50 HRs over that short porch in RF is just naive.
i’m with Brandon… Cashman has been incredibly conservative when its come to player personnel moves the past couple years. i think he’ll check in with Cleveland, but just like he reportedly pulled out of the Johan negotiations early, so to i think he’ll do with the chance to get Sabathia.
TurnTwo he’s been gaining weight as he gets older, his range is already not where it was a year ago.
I don’t think there is a hard and fast rule about knowing what you have in a pitcher at 25. So much goes into it today.
Like injuries. That plays the biggest factor in it.
Horne has been a kid, like Humberto Sanchez, who has been hurt a lot. That has slowed down his development.
The talent is there. Its just a matter of putting it together and staying healthy.
If I am a pitcher in the Yankees system right now, I am salivating. Guys like Horne, McCutchen and Aceves are going to have a shot at pitching for the Yankees this year if they can put together more solid starts.
Ponson and Giese aren’t long term answers. You hope you can steal some wins out of them but, even the Yankees know there is a time clock on that.
Personally, I’d even put Rasner on that list. He’s a nice story but, he’s more of a long man than a long term (for this season) answer to the rotation.
The longer the Yankees can win games with Rasner and Giese at the back end of the rotation, the better chances they have to make a realistic deal at the deadline. Even if its for bullpen help. It may be easier to find a bullpen arm to help them than it is a starter. If that’s the case, then its incumbent on one of these guys to step up and give them something in the #5 hole in the rotation.
It also buys them time to get Hughes and perhaps Kennedy back into the mix. Although the rumblings I hear is they aren’t looking so much at Kennedy being a solution to their pitching issues this year. If they did, they wouldn’t have taken a flyer on Ponson.
I think the Yankees now realzie Kennedy needs more AAA time in order to get back on track.
The wildcard in this is Aceves. He may only be in AA but, his Mexican League experience makes him a more than just a typical AA pitcher. He may be the guy to watch in the second half of the year if they need to stay inside the organization to fill out the rotation.
that post is about Fielder Jr.
Fielder is 5’11″ and 270 pounds. How long do you think he can haul that fat around?
“I think they look to move Fielder for pitching in the next 12-24 months.”
Let’s say the Yanks do a stop-gap at 1B next season. They don’t sign Tex, and they don’t make a trade for a long-term solution there…is Fielder someone you target?
“he’s been gaining weight as he gets older, his range is already not where it was a year ago.”
perhaps its just me, but i’m just not worried about his weight.
i havent seen him enough this year to know what his range is at 1B, but if you’re not going to secure a guy like Tex, you could hardly do worse than have Fielder play the position in the Bronx during his prime for the next 5-8 years.
“what basis does anyone have to assume Prince Fielder, who’s like, what, 24 or so, will have his knees completely fail him when he’s 27 or 28 years old? lets get real.
and to insinuate that Fielder couldnt pound 50 HRs over that short porch in RF is just naive.”
What basis?
How about 5’11″, 270 lbs? And not getting smaller.
He’s 24 now. He probably wouldn’t be traded until he’s 26. An extension would probably be required, of the 6-8 year variety.
I dunno about you, but I have a lot of doubt he’ll be healthy at 30.
He’s on pace for ~30 HRs this year, essentially his 2006 pace. Was 2007 who he really is? Or was it a fluke?
Jennifer,
It all depends on performance. Whomever pitches the best gets in the mix.
I think Melancon is going to end up pitching in NY at some point in the second half of the year. I have always believed they saw him as a bullpen option this season and nothing has changed my mind on that front.
I also believe they are hopeful Hughes can get back in August. However, until he gets on a throwing program, they can’t count on that happening.
Put me in the camp of Cashman making a play for CC if CC is on the market. He’s not on the market right now.
If Cleveland puts him on the market, I think the Yankees will make a big push for him. Bigger than they are letting on.
Enough to give up on one of their untouchables? No. But, they can make a CC deal without giving up on any of their untouchables. It all depends on the other offers on the table and what Cleveland ends up valuing more…..the draft picks or the players involved in any CC deal.
I pay zero attention to trade talk and rumors on June 20 because its all nonsense at this point. Everybody who has a player valued by other teams are overplaying their hands right now.
When it gets to July 27, then it gets interesting. The bluffing ends and you have to deal with reality if you are a GM. That’s when I start paying more attention to trade talk.
I think Rasner will stick. He is a solid #4 in my mind right now. Not the typical MLB #4(4.9->5.2 era), but in my perfect rotation the #4 is a pretty reliable guy who will put together a few very high quality starts over the year but will generally be league average within a standard deviation.
The only thing holding him back was the lack of a third pitch, and he has that cutter now. His control and command makes him incredibly valuable.
““he’s been gaining weight as he gets older, his range is already not where it was a year ago.â€
perhaps its just me, but i’m just not worried about his weight.
i havent seen him enough this year to know what his range is at 1B, but if you’re not going to secure a guy like Tex, you could hardly do worse than have Fielder play the position in the Bronx during his prime for the next 5-8 years.”
Prince Fielder will not be a 1B for the next 5-8 years.
He’s a horrible 1st baseman.
You think Giambi’s bad? Fielder’s not much better, and will probably get worse before he gets better: http://www.hardballtimes.com/t.....mit=Submit
Volquez is in his 2nd yr of MLB service, so he came up at 23. I believe Wang was 23 too when he made his debut.
SJ I was reading some board 2 nights ago alot of mexican latinos on it, talking about seeing Aceves in the Mexican league some went a little over board some compare his hype and upside like Duque/Fernandomania now I asked what made them so sure, posters told me he competes and can throw anything at anytime, I asked if he throws 95, they told me maybe not 95 but he can sit on 93 mph when he’s on drops a nasty slider or split.
Again I got to see it to believe it, last thing I asked was his work ethic, they used the word “un Burro” (a bull). Have you heard anything on Aceves SJ since you are usually around the AA team.
Aceves has a ridiculous work ethic. There was an article about him either on a blog or a newspaper for Trenton that explained how he works out between starts. He prepares super hard, “So that being on the mound is easy by comparison.” (paraphrased from what Aceves said).
Burro should be his nickname
No clue if anyone watched ESPN first-take today, but if you didn’t, you missed one of the best stories I have ever heard/watched. fairly close to tears.
http://video.google.com/videos.....38;tab=iv#
If any ‘big’ trade happens we won’t hear about it till a day or so before. Remember the Arod trade? He found out about it 2 days before it was done. Cash is very good at keeping things secret. The Yankees front office unlike the Mets isn’t going to leak what is happening.
Oh yeh before I forget they really like Manuel Bañuelos yo know the 16 yr. old mexican LHP the yankees took in the offseason, they said solid to nasty on his curveball and throws 92 mph right now. I almost forgot about that kid.
How about Hanks’ guy Jamie Moyer as an example of a pitcher who has had a long and successful MLB career despite not having early success.
His being a lefty probably made his leash longer but he had more success in his 30′s and 40′s than his 20′s.
Jerkface R&B calls him the “Mexican Gangster”
I saw him pitch once this year Brandon. He threw 90-92 but, all of his pitches had late movement. He also had excellent, not good, excellent command. He could work both sides of the plate with all of his pitches.
I was impressed but, I also factored in that he was facing guys who weren’t used to seeing that kind of finish and command on pitches at the AA level.
I asked a few of my scout friends about him. They all liked him. Some more than others. However, the general consensus was the guy has the stuff to pitch in the majors at some point. When that can be is the question.
“He’s on pace for ~30 HRs this year, essentially his 2006 pace. Was 2007 who he really is? Or was it a fluke?”
so having a 30+/100+ guy isnt valuable in this lineup?
bphill
Just saw that on TV and the tears were flowing this morning. Makes you want to hug your kids a little longer but also to kick them in the butt when they tantrum over nonsense.
Stories like that always make me think of the phrase- and a child shall lead them.
IT sounds like there are going to be a lot of pitchers who need time at AAA – Horne, Kennedy, McCutchen, Aceves, not to mention the relievers, such as Melancon. Even if one or more are traded, getting time at AAA or even NY (to show that they can ML hitters out) will be needed. Here’s where having Kei Igawa under contract continues to hurt, as he’s blocking a roster spot. Can’t imagine he feels particularly good, seeing the coming and going of so many pitchers, including Sidney Ponson, while no mention of him. Wonder if they’ve given any thought to buying out remainder of his contract and letting him go back to Japan. Or if Cash still thinks there’s something to uncover with him.
“and will probably get worse before he gets better”
why would he get better after he gets worse, if you’re basing it on age and weight?
what im saying is that if you get a guy who’s going to produce 35+/100+ every season, i can deal with his defense at 1B.
that was my problem with Giambi. until recently, his production wasnt worth his defense at 1B… now, you can live with it.
“Or if Cash still thinks there’s something to uncover with him.”
Cashman may have been whistling dixie, but he did refer to Igawa as the next option should Geise fail.
“I believe Wang was 23 too when he made his debut.”
Nope. 25. It’s on thebaseballcube.com, you can look it up.
“that was my problem with Giambi. until recently, his production wasnt worth his defense at 1B… now, you can live with it.”
But his defense wasn’t this bad at 24. Fielder’s is ALREADY worse than Jason’s.
In 2005 Aceves had a 4.3 era in the mexican league. In 2006 it was 4.5. Last year 3.6. He might have turned a corner, since he was young for what is considered the equivalent of AAA. And it does look like he works hard to get better. But he still has some questions to answer.
Also, he pitched 109 innings last year. He pitched 145 one of those other years. If the Yankees keep him to an innings limit, would he be at 175 or 140? Or maybe they don’t value him highly enough to worry too much about an innings limit? If it’s 140, he’s only going to be able to pitch a few starts in the majors no matter how good he is.
If talks involving CC, Bedard, Sheets or any other A-List starter get serious it will get out, but not from the Yankees. It’ll come from other teams that find out the Yankees are players in the talks as the team with the player(s) look to get better offers. That’s how it was with Gagne last summer, Santana in the off-season. sometimes the alleged offers are right on target.. sometimes they are off base.
I agree with the points that a solid # 4 starter is a valuable commodity. Just not valuable enough to take off the table as part of a package for a # 1 or # 2. That’s why I would not let Horne, Kennedy, Rasner, Marquez et al get in the way of a deal for a top gun.
I’d stay away from Fielder until he shows a commitment to some level of conditioning more intense than my regimen. A huge pitcher is not as big a concern as an every day player.
““He’s on pace for ~30 HRs this year, essentially his 2006 pace. Was 2007 who he really is? Or was it a fluke?â€
so having a 30+/100+ guy isnt valuable in this lineup?”
A DH that makes as much as he’ll make? With the injury concerns?
No.
The Yankees need to get more athletic, not less.
i really dont care what his defense is compared to Giambi when he 24 years old. what we have is Giambi when he’s 37 years old, and we’re doing just fine right now, no?
like ive already said, i can live with Fielder’s defense at 1B over the next 6 years if he’s going to give me 35/100 each of those seasons.
i cant say that any more clearly.
now of course, it then depends on what you have to trade to get him. i wouldnt advocate a trade for him at any cost type deal. reasonable deal? go for it.
“Also, he pitched 109 innings last year. He pitched 145 one of those other years. If the Yankees keep him to an innings limit, would he be at 175 or 140? Or maybe they don’t value him highly enough to worry too much about an innings limit? If it’s 140, he’s only going to be able to pitch a few starts in the majors no matter how good he is.”
It’s usually your previous HIGH +30, though that can depend on the cause of a lower IP the previous year. He’s also older, so injury risk is lessened.
“i really dont care what his defense is compared to Giambi when he 24 years old. what we have is Giambi when he’s 37 years old, and we’re doing just fine right now, no?”
What do you think Giambi’s defense would be, hypothetically, at 45?
Because that’s what I think Fielder will be at 30.
“like ive already said, i can live with Fielder’s defense at 1B over the next 6 years if he’s going to give me 35/100 each of those seasons.
i cant say that any more clearly.”
Why not go for Texeira who can give the same offensive production, has great defense and will only cost a draft pick and money?
“Why not go for Texeira who can give the same offensive production, has great defense and will only cost a draft pick and money?”
i would prefer that. my argument for Fielder is on the basis that Teixeira is either signed already, or Cashman has deemed completely unavailable.
“i really dont care what his defense is compared to Giambi when he 24 years old. what we have is Giambi when he’s 37 years old, and we’re doing just fine right now, no?”
But if we’re on the hook for a 6 year extension, starting when Fielder is 26…I really don’t think that he’s going to be getting any BETTER at D without some significant conditioning changes. And since he’s already worse than Giambi…I dunno. It just seems like a deal that we’d wind up regretting.
“like ive already said, i can live with Fielder’s defense at 1B over the next 6 years if he’s going to give me 35/100 each of those seasons.”
Prince Fielder is not a first baseman. He’s a DH. That’s it.
He’s not bad at first – he is truly horrendous. Its said a lot that defense at first base generally doesn’t matter. On the whole that’s sort of true.
But that rule does not apply to Fielder. Fielder is a real outlier – his defense is already so bad that it eats away at a substanstial amount of his value.
Last year Fielder was the third worst defensive first baseman in the game – he was 15 runs worse than the average first baseman.
The average offensive production from first baseman is so high to begin with if you give up 15 runs that an average first baseman (who isn’t a bad offensive player to begin with) doesn’t that’s a real problem.
Last year Fielder had a monster year. Offensively he had a VORP of 69. For comparison Pujols had a very similar VORP of 72. Fielder however only accounted for 6.9 wins above a replacement level first baseman. Pujols was 10.5 wins above a replacement level. Mark Texeira was a 53 VORP player – not nearly as good as Fielder was last year. He was a slightly below average defensive first baseman last year so its not like his defense was anywhere near the Pujols category. He was 6 wins above replacement.
Fielder’s defense eats away a lot of the value of his bat. If he only hits 30HR/100 RBI’s or something like that he’s only going to be around 4 wins above a replacement level first baseman.
I would not go near him. He’s a very poor value for what it’ll cost and moving forward he becomes very limited as he’ll have to become a DH unless he loses 50-60 pounds.
“He’s a very poor value for what it’ll cost”
of course, thats part of the equation. i never said they need to go for him at any cost, but if its reasonable.
look the guy is fat, but he’s still an athlete, he’s only 24 right now, and he can still mash. i’ll take on his defense if he gives the offensive numbers i think he could provide long term in Yankees Stadium.
we’ll just agree to disagree on the value Fielder would have.
“Why not go for Texeira who can give the same offensive production, has great defense and will only cost a draft pick and money?”
Teixiera is just not a great defensive first baseman. He’s not even close. He’s an average defensive first baseman.
Albert Pujols is a great defensive first baseman. Youklis and Casey Kotchman are very good. Texeira is nowhere even close to the Youklis/Kotchman class never mind Pujols’.
Teixeira’s a classic case of a player winning a gold glove inappropriately and then having a reputation develop without substance.
Not a reason necessarily not to sign him – but its important to know what your getting for the monster money it’ll take.
Great defense is not one of the things you’ll get for the $140M or so it’s going to take to sign Tex. Slightly below average to average defense is what you’ll get.
Didn’t read all the comments, but “Probably not Sidney Ponson”, eh Pete?
With all this talk about Fielder, I have to ask why? Yes he can mash the ball, but the money he could get and Teixeira could get would be near the same. Wouldn’t you prefer in that case, a better fielder who can hit well? Look at the problems with defense we’ve had with Giambi this year. Many of those would not have happened with a good fielding firstbaseman.
If it came down to a choice between Fielder and Teixeira, then I would rather see Teixeira.
argh! is anyone else having issues with the ad that looks like a youtube clip?
whenever it appears, it blocks anything below it and i’m having trouble to get into the clubhouse…er.. i mean comments section. have to keep hitting refresh until a different ad comes up.
CB – Pujols is absolutely the best thing about being a Cards’ fan
He was a 3rd baseman coming up, was obviously not suited to it, especially with the elbow concerns. Rolen bumped him to LF (best place to protect his elbow). He moved to 1B when it was open… and proceeded to work his tail off to become the best 1B he could be. I recall several years ago, at the All Star break, he was chatting Don Mattingly’s ear off, trying to get pointers on turning a double play.
Just an amazing talent, and an amazing work ethic.
saucY: yep, same problem.
same problem, here, also.
“With all this talk about Fielder, I have to ask why? Yes he can mash the ball, but the money he could get and Teixeira could get would be near the same.”
Well, Fielder won’t be FA eligible until what, 2012? So…if you traded for him in the next two years, you’d only be on the hook until he’s 28. So you wouldn’t be paying for any decline years. That could be appealing. With Tex…you will be paying for decline years.
Pete!
Help!
The blog is freaking out. There’s an incessant video that blocks the comments, and all the links that used to be on the side panel are gone on the main page… not even to get into Archives.
“Teixiera is just not a great defensive first baseman. He’s not even close. He’s an average defensive first baseman.”
Ok fair enough, like you say he has a reputation that I guess is misplaced.
Still, I think Texeira would be a good signing for the Yanks to fill that 1B spot for several years. I’m fine with average defense if Texeira can continue to hit well.
same problem… very frustrating!
Pujols is arguably the single best defensive player in baseball. He’s that good. It’s just amazing that one guy is arguably the best offensive and defensive player in baseball at any time.
But that’s Pujols. And he actually has a very strong case to be the best defensive player not only given how much better he is than any other first baseman but also in absolute terms.
Last year Pujols saved 37 runs compared to the average defensive first baseman. The next best firstbaseman was Kotchman who saved 24 runs. So Pujols was an astounding 13 runs better than any other first baseman. That is by far the biggest runs saved difference between the best and second best defensive player at any position.
The only player close to as good defensively as Pujols was last year was Troy Tulowitski. He was 35 runs better than an average SS and 9 runs better than the second best defensive SS John McDonald.
Its really hard to believe that a first baseman could even possibly save that many runs at a position that isn’t a premium defensive position but he’s that good.
Pujols is just astounding. A truly historic player both offensively and defensively.
“Well, Fielder won’t be FA eligible until what, 2012? So…if you traded for him in the next two years, you’d only be on the hook until he’s 28. So you wouldn’t be paying for any decline years. That could be appealing. With Tex…you will be paying for decline years.”
agreed. he’s the type of player you can trade for, and you dont have to sign him long term right away.
you could take him year to year to arbitration, and just let that play out… not like the yankees cant afford to pay him if they rule in his favor, like the Brewers have to worry about.
Picking up Teixiera is really a tough call. Personally, I don’t think he is worth the money. But can the Yankees find a viable replacement that would cost them significantly less?
I really hate the idea of strapping us down with big individual payrolls considering all the money we are currently giving our other guys (ARod is making a ton, but is worth it). OK, it isn’t my money but this is the team I root for. Despite what people think, the team is on a budget – just a higher budget than everyone else
If they think Tex will put us over the top then they will make a push. I really think the answer to that question will come when we see how our minor league pitchers perform. Right now, we can fill our pitching holes with the minors, not bats. Another option would be to trade pitching prospects for position prospects.
SJ,
What would it to pry away a Mat Gamel or better yet Matt LaPorta from the Brewers? I think the Yankees need bats more then pitching.
I would also look to trade an over rated Abreu if a good deal could be make and he waves his no trade.
I would like to see the Yankees make a deal for the Rockies 4th outfielder Ryan Spilborghs who hits lefties very well.
Same issue with the video ad and not being able to see comments just hit f5 like 10 times. This is the problem I was having the other day getting the entire Sam Borden column about Willie’s mom.
For you guys having problems with the ads-if possible, maybe download firefox and then get the AdBlock Plus add-on?
No ads at all for me
“What would it to pry away a Mat Gamel or better yet Matt LaPorta from the Brewers? I think the Yankees need bats more then pitching.”
The reason we got on the Fielder discussion is that we pretty much agreed the Brewers will keep those kids so one can take over the 1B spot and then trade Fielder instead. So those guys aren’t going anywhere.
Russell, I agree that the pitching question is what will drive a lot of other things. The Yankees aren’t going to ignore the FA or trade market, though they really haven’t made much noise in those areas lately.
I think Teixeira could be a nice fit for the Yankees, he would be an upgrade at first as far as defense. I understand the concern for paying a high contract that he would probably demand, but I don’t see Posada taking 1st base, nor Jeter for that matter.
“I would like to see the Yankees make a deal for the Rockies 4th outfielder Ryan Spilborghs who hits lefties very well.”
This isn’t a bad idea, though. I wonder if other teams would value him as a starter. He looks like a great 4th OFer to me.
S.A. – i always wondered why people are so crazy about firefox, guess that’s one of the reasons. i read the new one is good, but has a couple bugs. i’m hesitant to download anything like that at work though.
oh, and i’m glad some of you are suffering with me! haha..
saucY-Yeah, I downloaded the new version of firefox. So far so good!
But anywho, after I started using firefox, I never used IE again. The AdblockPlus add-on is a godsend!
Maybe when you get home try it out and see if you like it.
Given all the injuries and the unlikely prospect of catching up to the Sux, perhaps it is just better to give the season away in order to guarantee signing Stephen Strasburg. Imagine Strasburg and Chamberlain, that alone almost guarantees another dynasty!
Back to Alan Horne for a moment. Chad at SWB blog has a post up about last night. He explains and also quotes Alan that in his one bad inning (where almost all of his hits and walks, and all of the runs came) Alan lost his mechanics a bit on his fastball. He was out of whack a bit, starting in the wrong place on the rubber, and striding to the wrong place. Alan straightened things out and got through the next inning.
A couple of things – Horne has not pitched many games this year. If he can get his mechanics honed he will be a good pitcher. Also it seems to me the make or break for kids is what they do in a tight spot. Joba was the perfect example – bases loaded no out – Then NO RUNS. Kennedy seemed to do his best Mussina after an error impersonation when he got into a jam. Hughes was in between.
Every team needs a number 3, 4 and 5 starter. If Horne and/or Kennedy and/or some of the other prospects can fill these roles that saves the Yankees tons of money over time.
The front line starting pitching prospects for the Yankees in the next couple of years: Wang, Joba, Hughes, Brackman, Garcia, Betances, Macallister, Cole (when signed and in system), Inoa (keep fingers crossed).
one of these days. i think 95% of my internet use is at work
Strasburg will no doubt be # 1 overall pick next year, I mean NYTimes did a piece about him last night of him being the Ace of Team USA kid can stay on 100 MPH he use to be low 90′s in H.S. IDK how he gained so much velocity but Boras has that kid already.
Let’s hope girardi brings out the big guns tonight against volquez
jason
I agree w/ that whole heartedly. I don’t know why it is viewed as such a knock to say someone looks like a 4th or 5th starter. I think they make about 8mil/yr and on a good team contribute 10 to 15 wins.
My point is that some here believe every prospect has so much value that other teams will line up to trade for them.
SA (or other firefox users), you may find this interesting…
http://blogs.zdnet.com/security/?p=1288
oooohhhh. Thanks saucY!
William Buckner – not a knock at all. Last I checked you need 25 guys and 12 or 13 pitchers. Not everyone is Cy Young or Babe Ruth. If you can get solid consistent work out of the back of your rotation it is tremendous. Also, a guy like Horne when he is on probably has the chance to step up from time to time and throw a fantastic game.
Cost controlled, solid pitching saves tons of money for the organization. And as Cashmna has said repeatedly he will not be forced to overspend or to overtrade. He will be much more selective about who to give up and who to go after (hopefully that leads to good trades).
“Isn’t cincinnati a hitter’s park? Because if Volquez is putting up those numbers in a hitter’s park…*shudder*”
Yes. It’s very much a hitter’s ball park. Real short down both lines. It’s not quite Philadelphia but its a park designed to promote home runs and offense.
Volquez has a 1.83 ERA at home and 1.44 on the road.
Overall what’s truly amazing about his year so far isn’t just the ERA of 1.64 – and that’s partly because of the small ball park he plays in.
The really amazing stat on Volquez is his ERA+. ERA+ compares a pitcher to the league average ERA and also adjusts for ball park factors. An ERA+ of 100 is league average. Volquez’s ERA+ right now is 272.
That basically says that Volquez’s rate of giving up earned runs is 2.7 times better than a league average NL pitcher.
Volquez cannot continue this run. The last pitcher to pitch this well compared to other pitcher in his league was pedro in his prime. Even Santana at his best never had an ERA+ over 200 for a season.
“SA (or other firefox users), you may find this interesting…”
Compared to the number of known vulnerabilities in IE, I’m still willing to stick with FF.
Besides, I only go to lhblogs.com and riveraveblues.com anyway
CB—- Where do you get those “runs saved” stats? How does one compute such a thing? What were the numbers fo Teixiera? Giambi?
I don’t know about that stat, but I’ve seen enough baseball to know that Teixiera is a very good defensive player. He won two gold gloves (2005-06) and would have won a third straight if not for the trade to the NL.
Pujols is a fine defensive player, but Derek Lee (3) and Todd Helton (2) have won more gold gloves in the last six years than Pujols (1) and are every bit as good.
Like to watch Stargate Atlantis episodes and also Lost. I found your blog on google and read a few of your other posts. I just added you to my Google News Reader. Look forward to reading more from you in the future.