Closing in on the All-Star break
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jun 30, 2008 
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The first half of the season is over. But the Yankees (44-38) still have 13 games to go before the All-Star break.
3 vs. Texas
4 vs. Boston
2 vs. Tampa Bay
1 at Pittsburgh
3 at Toronto
What record would be accepable at the break? If the Yankees go 8-5 in this stretch and head into the break 52-43, that would be a decent accomplishment. Anything more is a bonus.
Back later with the lineup.
9-4. Make a big push to get to 10 over .500 at the break.
Not going to be easy but its doable.
They are home for most of July. This is the month they have to make their push.
If they can’t, its going to get tougher to win once they hite the road in July.
The schedule is in their favor. Its time for this team to step it up.
8-5 sounds the most realistic. wins in games you listed: 2, 2, 1, 1, 2.
How many of these games are started by Joba (assume all wins) and Pettitte/Mussina (assume 75% wins) versus the others (assume 25% wins)? That’ll be a good indicator.
I think 8-5 is definitely doable/expected.
I hope we can kick Boston’s you know what. I hope Gardner is a pest at the plate and forces himself on base where he can do some serious damage.
13-0 or bust
I really think they need to go 9-4 here to finish strong… split Boston, split TB, beat Pitts, and take 5 of 6
from bad Texas and Toronto teams.
sitting at 53 wins, and figuring you need 92 wins, minimum, to make the playoffs, they need to win 39 games out of their remaining 67, which is about a winning percentage of about 58-59%, to have a shot.
1st place is the only thing that acceptable. This is the New York Yankees, not the New York Mets.
I would really like to see the Yanks go 10-3 during this stretch.
But hey, as long as they play over .500, I guess I’ll be happy.
I think they just need to play well and the record will come.
They are only on the road for six games in July.
If there’s a time to make a move, THIS is it.
Anything less than 8-5 would be unacceptable.
good point on Mike and Mad Dog just now. How does a team with a $220 MM payroll send up Chad Moeller to pinch hit? I long for the days when they would send up Strawberry, Chili Davis, etc. from the bench.
I hate when people point at the payroll and say they shouldn’t have guys like Moeller, Christian, Giese, Ramirez, Ponson on the team. Every team has players like that.
I didn’t realize they were going to play 95 games before the All-Star break.
mark – are they both there? or is it just one of them like last week?
Turntwo,
I agree with you. Sounds very reasonable and doable as well.
One game at a time.
But I’m frustrated with the one step forward, one step back pattern (as is Girardi, I’m sure).
Texas is hot, but we’ve always played them well.
It’ll be interesting to see how things stand by next week when the AL gets back to tougher schedules.
Boston on the road? Hmmm.
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Challenge for the day: Use Manny and ‘knock’ in a sentence. Looking for a KO from Nick in SF.
how is 52-43 a decent accomplishment? unless you are the minnesota twins and have a 70 million dollar payroll.
on the other hand, i guess for cashman ,with only a 200 million dollar payroll, 52 -43 is pretty good for him.
i mean, who knows how well he could do with 220-230 million? it’s not his fault the yankees are making him cut back to a measly 200 million.
“good point on Mike and Mad Dog just now. How does a team with a $220 MM payroll send up Chad Moeller to pinch hit? I long for the days when they would send up Strawberry, Chili Davis, etc. from the bench.”
Because all of the ‘Strawberry, Chil Davis, etc.’s are on other teams. Baseball is completely different today – you can’t get players for $$$ alone anymore, unless you want to saddle yourself with long contracts.
Name a ‘Strawberry’ who the Yankees could have signed this past offseason.
Anyone think Johan Santana wants to beat down Chris Russo right now
And for the second time in two at bats, Moeller pins the left fielder against the wall in left-left center.
mark: Cos a lot of that $220 million is busy on the DL or in AAA (yeah, I’m looking at you, Pavano and Igawa)
That’s a strawman argument.
How does it happen? Well, you re-sign All Stars like Mo, Posada and Arod in the off-season and you have almost 60 million right there.
Add Jeter and Cano and its 86 million.
That was the payroll of the ’96 Yankees.
I guess we can do without those guys and really pump up the money for the bench.
Moeller almost hit a HR and had a great AB. It wasn’t like he was overmatched.
That’s just a dumb argument to make. Then again, its Mike and the Mad Dog. I wouldn’t expect anything less.
Considering all the injuries and struggles of certain players this team has gone through so far-I would be ok with a 52-43 record at the all-star break.
Not thrilled, but feeling pretty ok.
“how is 52-43 a decent accomplishment? unless you are the minnesota twins and have a 70 million dollar payroll.
on the other hand, i guess for cashman ,with only a 200 million dollar payroll, 52 -43 is pretty good for him.
i mean, who knows how well he could do with 220-230 million? it’s not his fault the yankees are making him cut back to a measly 200 million.”
I expect better from you, Randy.
You can spend $500M, but if half of that is saddled on aging former stars and 3/5 of your starting pitchers get hurt/suck, there’s not too much you can do.
This isn’t the 1990s. Other teams can AND WILL hold onto their stars. The Padres are a -horrible- team, but there’s -no way- they deal Peavy. The Mariners are garbage, but Ichiro/Bedard/Felix ain’t going anywhere.
Get used to the new world.
Brandon, Santana has pitched pretty well, this year, but, this year, he always seems to find a way to give up the hit at the wrong time. He’s pitching just well enough to lose.
Alex Rodriguez rejoined the Yankees on May 20th, after 3 weeks on the DL. Since his return, the Yankees are 24-14, for a .632 winning percentage, or a 102 win season.
Just, uh, FYI
Igawa’s only 4 million of that payroll
Pavano’s about 11 mil
-
For this season…
A-Rod’s making 27 mil
Giambi’s making 21 mil
Jeter’s making 20 mil
(congratulations, the above 3 alone make more than some whole rosters do this year!)
Abreu’s making 16 mil
Pettitte’s making 16 mil
Mo’s making 15 mil
Posada’s making 13.1 mil
(guys, we’re at 128.1 million after 7 players)
Damon’s making 13 mil
Matsui’s making 13 mil
Moose’s making 11 mil
Pavano’s aforementioned 11 mil
(176 million after 11 players)
(NOW we’re finally getting to players who are making less than 10 million this year)
Farnsy gets 5.5 mil
Wang gets 4 mil
Igawa’s aforementioned 4 mil
Latroy’s 3.75 mil
Cano’s 3 mil
Molina’s 1.75 mil
Betemit’s 1.165 mil
Bruney’s 0.725 mil
Melky’s 0.4612 mil
Giese’s 0.4125 mil
Duncan’s 0.3983 mil
Kennedy’s 0.394 mil
Karstens’s 0.3933 mil
Albie’s 0.3932 mil
Ollie’s 0.391 mil
Joba’s 0.39 mil
Miranda’s 0.39 mil
“Sounds very reasonable and doable as well.”
yup. beat down on the mediocre teams, and then maybe steal a close 1-run game or two against the good teams.
“Then again, its Mike and the Mad Dog. I wouldn’t expect anything less.”
SJ, Russo’s working alone. Here’s the rundown 1. Rip NY teams, use payroll to accentuate the points. 2. Talk tennis, maybe get a McEnroe brother or Ted Robinson from Wimbledon for an interview. 3. Wack off to Roger Federer highlights. 4. Make statements that show you have no connection with anyone under 40. 5. Whine about the kids.
“Alex Rodriguez rejoined the Yankees on May 20th, after 3 weeks on the DL. Since his return, the Yankees are 24-14, for a .632 winning percentage, or a 102 win season.”
if the yankees play at a .632 clip the rest of the season, from here out, they win 95 games, not 102, however.
and we dont know if 95 games is good enough yet or not.
“if the yankees play at a .632 clip the rest of the season, from here out, they win 95 games, not 102, however.
and we dont know if 95 games is good enough yet or not.”
For the Wild Card? I sure hope it is!
95 wins is excellent. How many 95 win teams have NOT made the playoffs?
(for example, A-Rod + Giambi + Jeter combines for a total of 68 million, which is more than, say, the Twins’ roster, or the Devil Rays…hell, A-Rod + Giambi makes more than the Rays)
Joe,
Good breakdown of the show! LOL
How in the world will the FAN survive if they break up that finger on the sports pulse of NYC duo?
Two guys who were last relevent in 1996. They ought to thank their lucky stars each day their limited talent has made them millionaires.
But, like character actors who believe they should be leading men, their egos will get a rude awakening if they indeed break up.
Neither guy is talented enough to have a successful show without the other.
Its probably why they hate each other so much. One can’t survive (professionally) without the other.
“95 wins is excellent. How many 95 win teams have NOT made the playoffs?”
95 wins is excellent, but thats based on the premise they win 63% of the rest of their games, too. and that means the Saux and Rays have to come back to earth, which they have yet to do this season.
thats a good question, though… since the start of the WC era, how many 95 game winners, and lets even say 93 game winners, did not make the postseason?
With basically a month at home which is also the month leading up to the trading deadline, the Yankees should bring up Igawa and slot him into Rasner’s spot. See if he can build some trade value, and if he can pitch to a sub 5.00 era it’s a wash.
boston massacre ’08?
“Get used to the new world.”
so how do teams like the twins match up to the yankees with 1/3 the payroll.
in your “new world” could you explain that please?
which are the bloated salaries? giambi?, pavano of course, mussina?, damon?, matsui? jeter? arod? posada? rivera? cano? abreau? pettitte?
aren’t most of these players supposed to give a competitive advantage on the field?
so how does cashman put a team on the field that is barely over .500?
something isn’t right . with all those players this team should be better. if it’s not cashman’s fault, it’s someone’s fault because the team is underperforming. so if it’s not him then who?
“if it’s not cashman’s fault, it’s someone’s fault because the team is underperforming. so if it’s not him then who?”
how about asking this question: are they ACTUALLY underperforming?
Cashman constructed a 95 win team. that’s his job.
but those 95 wins are based on X # of AB’s from A-Rod and Posada.
A-Rod has been worth about 8 Wins over a replacement player during his career. Posada has been worth about 7 wins over a replacement player during his career.
take those guys away, and your 95 win team becomes an 80 win team.
the Yankees performed as an 88 win team for the first half of the season.
they lost Posada for 1/4 of the season and A-Rod for 1/8 of the season.
So, they lost about 1 win from 3B (1/8 of 8 wins) and 2 wins from the catcher position (1/4 of 7 wins).
Due to injuries, they lost about 3 wins, moving a team that should have been expected to win 47.5 games in the first half of the season to a team that won 44 games in the first half of the season.
ALL teams have injuries. that is true.
but the Yankees happened to have injuries to the 2 players they could ABSOLUTELY not replace.
considering the injuries, the team is about exactly where we would expect.
i know everyone has to always have someone to blame, but sometimes there is no one to blame besides bad luck.
and honestly, in 10 years, Cashman has one half a season where the team “only” wins 44 games and everyone flips out?
think about that and try to remember how good we’ve had it.
Randy –
“so how does cashman put a team on the field that is barely over .500?
something isn’t right . with all those players this team should be better. if it’s not cashman’s fault, it’s someone’s fault because the team is underperforming. so if it’s not him then who?”
Cashman has put together an excellent team that is sidelined by injuries. Wang, Hughes, and yes, Pavano are out; that’s most of an above-average major league rotation. Name one team that would not instantly become a lock for the playoffs if they could add those 3 healthy players to their roster.
“Name one team that would not instantly become a lock for the playoffs if they could add those 3 healthy players to their roster.”
I wouldn’t go that far but you make a good point.
Splits with Boston and Tampa Bay do us no good – we don’t gain any ground. We need to sweep or at the least, take 3 of 4 from Boston, and sweep Tampa Bay.
Patrick-
“I wouldn’t go that far but you make a good point.”
Haha, I got a bit carried away. Perhaps a more accurate question would be to name one team besides maybe Boston that would be performing this well after losing 3 players of their quality.
“We need to sweep or at the least, take 3 of 4 from Boston, and sweep Tampa Bay.”
nice thought, but lets be realistic.
I have a strange feeling that Cano is the key…he has been the missing piece and continuing his warming trend from the last 4 games or so is crucial given Matsui’s DL stint.
Bodhisattva,
Yes, we don’t gain ground by splitting, but that doesn’t mean it’s not a good thing. If we split the season series with Boston and TB, and play better than they do against the rest of the league, then we win. We don’t have to beat them head to head to win the division.
I’m actually not that worried about Tampa. They’re this year’s version of “the team who usually stinks but had a surprisingly good first half.” That team always fades in August and September. The Rays will be good eventually, but not yet.
As for Boston, I’m not sure we can take them without Wang. But the wild card is just fine with me.
“how about asking this question: are they ACTUALLY underperforming?”
hmmm-
i think they actually are underperforming. the yankees even with arod and posada out have a high number of good players.
how do teams like the twins do what they do?
are they doing something that the yankees aren’t doing ?
are they doing something that win shares doesn’t measure?
i have a healthy respect for your understanding of win shares, but i wonder how close it comes to what really makes a team win.
“i think they actually are underperforming. the yankees even with arod and posada out have a high number of good players.”
that is true. and some of those guys have woefully underperformed. Cano, and for much of the first half, Jeter.
now, what should Cashman have done, NOT counted on Cano and Jeter?
JMO is right, Cano has been a HUGE reason for the underperformance as well. huge.
but who saw that going into the season?
Name one team that would not instantly become a lock for the playoffs if they could add those 3 healthy players to their roster.”
jon-
i could ask you to name one team that wouldn’t instantly be a lock if they had two hundred million to spend this year.
randy l.
June 30th, 2008 at 3:05 pm
jon-
i could ask you to name one team that wouldn’t instantly be a lock if they had two hundred million to spend this year.
Why don’t you become a Twins fan then? Stop whining about payroll, we play in a huge market and we can afford to.
Randy,
You act like the Twins have been winning World Series. Check back with me when they actually make the playoffs in even one season. We’ve done it 13 straight.
Don’t be spoiled. The payroll doesn’t guarantee anything. It makes it more likely that we’ll win. Any other team dealing with the injuries we’ve had would be in shambles. Instead, we’re in good shape.
ML,
It’s easier to control your fate by winning head to head.
Lol, Tampa, now that they’re good, we’ll be able to beat. It’s when they sucked that they gave us trouble.
True, Wang’s absence has hurt us, but we have always hit Boston pitching well. I’m optimistic and will attend all 6 games (against Tampa as well).
hmmm-
we all know that cano needs pushing constantly from someone whether it’s bowa or who ever. hiring a coach that stays on him seems like a necessity.
the coaches the yankees have who could influence cano would be long, meacham, or the bench coach thompson. the problem is that these are all coaches who quietly go about their business.
they are in effect generic coaches. none of them are a bowa, a zimmer, or even a mattingly in presence. there is no fire in the coaches. players that are self motivated with these kind of coaches are fine, but someone like cano needs constant prodding and needling.
why sign him to a long term contract if they weren’t going to hire the right kind of coach to keep him motivated?
this was a tactical error on cashman’s part, and i haven’t liked the coaching staff from the beginning. they are all too quiet and too happy just to have a major league job.
i see a team that can make the playoffs, but i think that should be a base line for expectations with the talent and money this team spends.
Sure, winning head to head is great. I just don’t think it’s true that splits “don’t do anything for us.” If by some coincidence we split with Boston and Tampa and won every other game before the ASB, I’d be thrilled.
Turn Two -
Based on my quick check, only one, in the NL – Cincy in 1999 won 96 games and did not make it.
In the AL, four teams have won 93 and not made it – Cleveland in 2005; Seattle in 2003; and Seattle and Boston in 2002.
Why are the Yankees the way they are? Well one big thing that has not been brought up is the terrible drafting and player development from just before Torre got here until the last three drafts.
The disfunctional organization glitch kown as the Tampa Mafia undermined Cashman, and failed miserably in terms of drafting and developing talent expecially position players.
When that happens you hold on to players as they become older and older with no youthful reinforcements,, except via trades or free agency.
There are signs the pitching development program is making great progress, but the positional player development still is a few years away. It takes a strong stomach to take the hits he does and hold fast to the redevelopmental plan and I give Cashman credit for that integrity. He has not had total control long enough to hold him accountable for the overall talent in the franchise. He does, however deserve the criticism he’s gotten for signing Hawkins and failing to do anything to address the LH / RH imbalance in the lineup.