We talk a lot about the IP limits on young pitchers which is based on some studies showing a correlation between big IP jumps and injury.

But there’s an even better correlation out there – the 3500 pitch level. Lately (this decade) a very high percentage of pitchers reaching this level have issues with arm injury or declining effectiveness within 2 seasons, often taking until the 2nd year afterwards. Typically few reach this level lately – no more than 10 per season. The correlation is higher when that level is repeated. It’s a notably high correlation, but like any, has exceptions.

http://kobayashibaseball.blogs.....-club.html

CC is working on his second straight 3500 pitch season.

As an example, to look at another candidate, Sheets threw 3500 pitches in 2002 and 2004, close in 2003. Missed much of the following 3 seasons with injury, never making more than 24 starts through 2007. In 2008 he’s tracking towards that number again, though he might fall just short if we exclude the playoffs. To me this measure makes more sense than the IP one, since it’s pitches that cause stress and P/IP can vary. Wang for example has never come close to this level (top is 3055 in ’06) due to P/IP efficiency.

On Burnett, an anecdote.

My son just finished law school. Last year he had a sports business class. An agent came in to speak, and was asked who insiders thought had the best stuff among ML pitchers. He immediately responded Burnett. Then went on to say that he was completely self-involved – much more concerned about his stats and performance – to the point where he was notorious for checking radar readings of pitches on the scoreboard, etc. Now, he’s also young, so some immaturity is to be expected. Just thought it was a good story.

Burnett’s's never hit the 3500 pitch mark. His highs are in the 3200′s in ’02 and ’05. Was injured in the 2 years following each of those. Maybe he’s just more fragile.

He’s 2nd in MLB in pitches in 2008.

The impact often comes 2 seasons out. The numbers:

2007: Zambrano, Haren, Peavy, Kazmir, Harang, Sabathia, Meche, D. Cabrera.
Close (3400+): Willis, Francis, Blanton, Dice-K, Vasquez, Webb, Arroyo, Zito.

2006: Arroyo, Harang, Zito, Zambrano, Willis, Smoltz, Lackey
Close: L. Hernandez, Haren, D. Davis, Pettitte, J. Schmidt, J. Santana, T. Hudson

2005: L. Hernandez, Zito, Davis, Capuano, Oswalt, Zambrano, Willis, N. Lowry.
Close: Lackey, Buerhle, B. Myers, R. Johnson, Harang

2008 tracking:
2800+ pitches to date: Cain, Burnett, Meche, Verlander.
2700+: Guthrie, Lincecum, D. Cabrera, Halladay, Pettitte.
2600+: E. Santana, Billingsley, J. Santana, Hamels, Arroyo, U. Jimenez, Dempster, Haren, Vasquez, Lilly, Volquez, Lester

Don’t get all ‘truth-y’ about this.

Sorry but this is false. He’s had one good season in his entire career.

You might be right. Johnny’s 4 hits didn’t hurt. He actually made a really good catch in left center, so there was at least one hard ball hit out there. So here’s the difference at least in a game like that. When you have your offense up and running, you can actually potentially withstand a bad play here and there – not that you want to have to.

With Doc going, I certainly would try to have my best defense in there if it didn’t potentially hurt the offense. So there we have a conundrum right away. Sui has been hitting them hard and he ended up finally having one drop in. You don’t want his bat out of the lineup even for the hopeful situation of sacrificing in a run or moving someone over. Damon’s bat has heated up again. You hate to take him out because you want some chance of getting runners on base. Against Doc, I don’t put out a newbie (Gardner).

Who knows how Girardi will play it. If he does it with less than all of the vets I’ll be shocked. But, I hope he does get to the point of defensive replacement in the late innings if games are tight!

Putting Gardner up vs. Halladay??? That’s like feeding a Christian to the lions.