Crunching a few numbers
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- September
- 17
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If you have an explanation for this, I’d like to hear it.
The Yankees hit .293 (478 of 1,629) with RISP last season. They actually hit lower (.288, 1,178 of 4,088) when there were no RISP.
This season? They are at .260 with RISP (356 of 1,267) and at .275 (1,054 of 3,831) without RISP. It’s amazing that roughly the same players can have that dramatic a swing.
————
Then there’s this: The catchers.
Jorge Posada, Jose Molina and Wil Nieves were 202 of 633 (.319) in 2007 with 21 homers, 106 runs and 107 RBI.
Posada, Molina, Pudge Rodriguez and Chad Moeller are 137 of 590 (.232) in 2008 with eight homers, 68 runs scored and 48 RBI.
Toss in the shockingly bad season of Robinson Cano and it pretty much explains it.
Cano in 2007: .306, 19 homers, 93 runs scored, 97 RBI.
Cano in 2008: .258, 13 homers, 60 runs scored, 61 RBI.
Two positions produced 71 fewer runs and 95 fewer RBI than the previous season. This isn’t an exact formula by any means, but the Yankees are on a pace to score 190 fewer runs than they did last season. You can’t pin it all on the catchers and Cano, but they’re responsible for a lot of it.
The Yankees got a lot more out of first base this season. But had Posada been healthy and Cano met his projections, the Yankees would have been OK, quite likely.
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Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
Josh Thomson
Still doesn’t explain all the starts from bad pitchers.
Hughes and Kennedy were winless, Rasner, Pavano and Ponson were awful.
I don’t have the stats in front of me but, those five guys had to have started close to a third of the Yankees games this year.
That being the case, the offense had to exceed last years numbers to compensate for five poor starting pitchers. Highly unlikely that would have happened even if Posada didn’t get hurt and Cano bothered to show up this season.
I’m not even putting Pettitte’s numbers in the second half into the analysis. When you do, its pretty clear that this team had one consistent starting pitcher (Moose) this year.
The rest? Aside from a handful of Joba starts, they ranged from average to awful.
Its a collaborative effect. Poor offense, especially with RISP, coupled with poor starting pitching = no playoffs.
They would have been ok, but I think they would have still fallen short of the playoffs.
Posada wasn’t going to hit .330 again, plus they were still sending the likes of Rasner, Ponson, Giese, and Pavano to the mound regularly. Not to mention the injuries to Wang and Joba, plus the implosion of Hughes and Kennedy.
Maybe they would have won a few more games, but they’re still 10 out of a playoff spot. I don’t think the 2007 versions of Cano and Posada would have made that much of a difference.
“Its a collaborative effect. Poor offense, especially with RISP, coupled with poor starting pitching = no playoffs.”
You forgot considerably less than accpetable defense at about 6 positions.
Hey, Mr. Hail Mary,
Defense wasn’t a strong point last season either… it is what it is.
Had the Yankees been scoring runs though, maybe the Hughes Kennedy starts would have better results.
Many of us felt that Hughes and Kennedy were going to give up runs and struggle. I thought the Yankee offense would help carry them till they found their groove.
It also didn’t help the offense when they had so many poor hitters taking up a lot of at bats. Betemit, Gonzalez, Gardner, Melky, Cano, Molina, Pudge, Shelly, Christian, that is a lot of poor plate appearances to have to make up for.
SJ44, Miggs and Fredo Corleone ,
You guys have done a good additional analysis !
That’s fine if you thought Hughes and Kennedy were going to give up runs, so did I. I agree that the offense was expected to help shoulder that burden in their starts.
But when those guys are giving you 2 or 3 innings a start it really doesn’t matter how many runs you score. You may win an occasional game 10-8 or 9-6 but your bullpen is shot (like we saw) and that affects games started by everyone else, so its a snowball effect.
“But had Posada been healthy and Cano met his projections, the Yankees would have been OK, quite likely.”
I agree Pete. This season was Murphy’s Law in action. The Yankees got nothing close to nothing from 4 of their 9 opening day starters-Posada and Matsui are/were hurt and Cano and Melky were awful. Throw in Jeter’s off year and the fact that both A-rod and Damon missed time with dl and one can see why the offense was so bad.
Not to mention the fact that 3/5 of the opening day rotation are either hurt or in the minors-Wang, Hughes, IPK.
If it could go wrong this season, chances are it did.
I think the main difference with this year’s Yankees is not jumping on other team’s bullpens. In years past they would always wear the starting pitcher out (take pitches, draw a walk) and be tied or a couple runs down. Then when the relief pitching came in they would just blow up and win the game. You always had the feeling, no matter what the score was, in the 6-9 innings they would always pull it out.
First it’s shocking to see that A-Rod isn’t to blame for everything that went wrong this year.
No, Jorge would not likely have matched his BA, but his run production last year was consistent with his career. Add in the virtual automatic outs in CF and you have your three prime offensive culprits.
Here are some repulsive pitching numbers for you…
Pavano, Hughes, Kennedy, Rasner, Ponson and Igawa combined for 55 starts, roughly 1/3 of the season.
They are a combined 12-24 with an ERA of 6.48
They averaged 4.8 innings per start. that means every three days the Yanks are into the bullpen with three or four runs already on the board. That’s tough to overcome.
offense never ever ever ever ever wins. hence the yankees 1980s futility when we were consistantly a top 3 offensive team and a bottom 3 pitching team. pitching and defense, my friends was a hallmark of the 96-00 dynasty. we did not have pitching and defense this year. and sj, don’t forget pettite pitched way below league average this season. at best, he pitched like a #4 or #5 guy eating up innings is the only plus he gave us this year. clearly if wang was here, we’d be in better shape, but what maybe 4-5 games better. the weird thing is, we still could win somewhere around 86 games this year. with the right free agency signings and some better health and possible progression of joba and hughes giving us more than the 3 wins they did, we should be better next year, although so will toronto and boston and tampa bay will be right up there again.
The Yankees wouldn’t have had to exceed last year’s run total or even match it in order to have more wins.
If they had scored 100 more runs this yeat that would have likely equated into 10 more wins.
10 more wins and The Yankees are likely in the playoffs this year.
SJ: I agree with you, to a point.
Rasner, especially got shafted out of a lot of okay starts. They weren’t brilliant starts, but if the Yankees had bothered to score, say, four runs, they would have won.
From a guy that’s a marginal ML pitcher, you can’t ask for more than giving the team a chance to win, and that’s exactly what Rasner did in many (though not all) of his starts.
Ponson is another matter entirely.
Pavano hasn’t been awful. He just went and got hurt. Again.
Hughes, however, was a huge disappointment, as well as Kennedy. While I thin the issue with Hughes was more mechanics than anything else, I think with Ian it’s much more mental…which in the long run is a bigger concern.
Another thought though is how did the lack of offense impact the pitching staff? When you are a pitcher who has seen the offense sputter you try to keep doing more, if the offense wasn’t so poor at producing runs then the pitchers might have been able to settle down more and maybe been able to stay longer in games.
The pitching and hitting feeds off each other.
While I grant you that the SP were pretty dreadful this year, not all of the problems can be laid at their feet. Every game that the SP gave up 3 or 4 runs, regardless of the inning, you felt the game was out of reach. If we as fans felt that way, you know the players did as well.
86, great stuff there. It just goes to show you that not everything comes down to BA. with RISP. Pitching, or lack thereof, is the main reason the Yankees are where they are right now.
While it’s fun to talk about signing Manny, or Tex, or Burrell, it’s the pitching staff that needs to be fixed.
Did Kennedy say he had nasty stuff last night and pitched well?
Posada said the problem is pitching and we need two free agent starters.
The ridiculous, indefensible decision to rest two-fifths of the responsibility for a New York Yankees season on the backs of a couple of rookies is the key.
So much had to go right for that to ever have a chance of working out — much more than any Front Office has a right to take for granted.
Once that decision was made, the team had absolutely no slack to handle problems like injuries and bad seasons from anyone else.
It is not just needing to score more runs. They need to be able to grind out runs against good pitching, not just beat up on mediocre pitching. That has been the mirage of this offense that has collapsed in the playoffs for 4 years straight. This year it seems as if pitching has been much better across the board, consequently the Yanks have been in playoff mode all year. And pitching will be just as good next year, unless the Yanks can some of those good pitchers on their side. Look at Boston, Tampa, or Toronto–there is hardly a soft spot pitching wise, but you still must find a way to win 2 out of three. Even bad teams like Seattle can run out Bedard(when healthy) Felix, and Morrow. You can’t wait for the soft spot to score runs, you have to man-up and grin out those runs. I know, easier said than done, but if they don’t do it, there will be more of the same next year.
“First it’s shocking to see that A-Rod isn’t to blame for everything that went wrong this year. ”
Actually, I think CNBC is reporting that ARod is to blame for the AIG bailout.
Alex is responsible for the collapse of the American financial system. We all know that.
“They need to be able to grind out runs against good pitching, not just beat up on mediocre pitching.”
This year the Yankees have been unable to score runs on 0-2, 6.50 ERA rookies making their first career starts in Yankee Stadium, let alone top pitchers.
Well Clint if Posada says it then it must be correct!
I don’t want to get into the whole Posada/Joba thing again but if I’m Joba I’m not too happy.
This guy is supposed to be your teammate and your catcher and he basically comes out and says he thinks you’re going to break down.
Dr. Posada, using his vast medical knowledge, feels that a sporadic workload in the bullpen is better suited for Joba than once every 5 days in the rotation. Based upon studies he has completed, Dr. Posada feels that Joba’s mechanics and style are more suited for the bullpen.
This is the same guy who was bitching to the media back in July about how he didn’t like playing first or DH. The man is a catcher, who cares if his labrum is torn?
Shut up Posada, just shut up.
farnsworth has pitched very well for detroit, i wish we still had him
pudge has been a disaster
As the last homestand winds down, the finality of the closing is starting to hit me.
Here’s a photo gallery of the stadium.
See if you can find:
1. Robi doing ‘time out’ in Mr. Steinbrenner’s office
2. The candy backback and who’s responsible for it
3. Who’s locker is filled with mail?
4. Who’s depicted in the stained glass window?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ent.1.html
Thanx Tom—-
It also supports why I strongly support pursuing Teixiera. He helps the pitching by dramatically improving the infielder defense overall and the 1B defense in particular. Burrell and Manny would improve the offense, but not the defense/pitching.
This team needs to improve in all areas. But they are closer to post-season caliber offensively than they are with pitching and defense.
Posada should stop making petulant comments about starters.
His “we need an ace” statement during the Santana sweepstakes was dumb – while Santana is unquestionably better than anyone on the Yankees’s staff, you don’t throw your team’s best pitcher (Wang, at the time) under the bus like that.
Ironically, Posada is now challenging Joba’s capacity for starting, even though Joba could be the ace that, according to Posada, we need so much.
The only health-related information I want to hear from Posada is whether he is healthy enough to catch.
Speaking of next year and the starting pitching, it wouldn’t hurt the Yankees if CC got shelled once or twice before the end of the season.
The more he dominates in Milwaukee the higher his price tag becomes. Plus, if he’s blowing away NL hitters it makes it more likely he wants to stay in the NL.
Personally, I’d like to see him go on a nice 3-4 game losing streak to end the season. Will it matter? Maybe, maybe not.
Bottom line, if the Yankees are offering $23 million/year and the nearest competitor is offering $20 million/year he’s probably coming here. Pressure from the union plus the lure of the pinstripes is hopefully too much for him to turn down.
Farnswurst has made 16 appearances for Detroit. He has an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 2.00. That’s pitching very well?
Now that we find out Pettite was injured with Pudge catching, that’s 2 good Yankee pitchers injured with Pudge. But seriously, there have been injuries to almost every good pitcher the Yankees have–Hughes, Giese, Kennedy, Marte. Many of these are overuse injuries. You can be a bad manager and have trouble finding the perfect line-up, but you cannot decimate the pitching staff. What kind of consequences will another year of Girardi and his crew have on the franchise?
Is it the same people who complain about Girardi’s secretiveness and whine about Jeter’s reserve who now jump on Posada for speaking his mind?
pete, why didn’t you scoop the rumor about kennedy/hughes/joba to winterball?
To be honest, it’s really not the pitching. We haven’t had a dominant and healthy rotation since the 2003 season when 4 out of 5 SP had double digit wins. We haven’t had a dominant 7-8-9 bullpen since the 3 headed beast QuanGorMo.
We’ve definitely had our fair share of pitching problems in the last 5 years, but we just slugged our way out of it. There have been so many times in the previous seasons where we’ve given up 5 runs, only to power our way to a 6-5 victory late in the ballgame.
It’s our hitting, esp with RISP, coupled with a truly mediocre defense. Cash even said the hitting buried us this year. We’re called the Bronx Bombers for a reason.. even if our pitching sucks our offense finds a way to get it done.. except for this year.
Rebecca & other futbol fans in the NJ/NY area,
They just had the allocation for Women’s Professional Soccer where they assigned the 21 players from the national team to 7 clubs.
The NJ/NY club “Sky Blue FC” got Natasha Kai. You guys are going to love her.
Got to thinking about the greatest Yankees at each position with the Stadium closing so soon. Here is mine, in order, I am sure I forgot many greats, however:
Catcher–1 Yogi 2Dickey 3Posada 4Thurman 5Elston Howard
First Base 1Gehrig 2Mattingly 3Tino 4Skowron 5Chambliss 6Wally Pipp-his numbers are better than most realize
Second Base 1Lazzeri 2Joe Gordon 3Randolph 4Richardson 5Knoblauch
Shortstop–Jeter, Rizzuto, list ends there
Third Base 1Nettles 2Arod(yes I know why he doesn’t belong) 3Rolfe 4Boyer
Left Field 1Roy White 2Matsui 3Piniella I can’t really remember truly great Yankee Left fielders
Center Field 1Dimaggio 2Mantle 3Bernie 4Earle Combs 5Bobby Murcer
Right Field 1Babe 2Reggie 3O’Neill 4Maris 5Winfield
Starters 1Whitey Ford 2Ruffing 3Guidry 4Raschi and Reynolds 6Pettitte 7Gomez 8Stottlemyre
Relievers 1Mariano 2Sparky Lyle
Pavano, Mussina and Pettite are making $ 38 M this year. If they can get CC ($22)and AJ ($16)for something close to that it would be awesome. Giambi ($23.5) is making more than Teixiera would cost.
Good recruiting in the FA market could make this team a much better one without significantly altering the payroll.
“Farnswurst has made 16 appearances for Detroit. He has an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 2.00. That’s pitching very well?”
He’s been brutal. Sadly, Pudge has offered the catching equivalent of a 6.75 ERA and WHIP of 2.00 as a Yankee.
Girardi should try and get everybody a AB and every pitcher in the game on Sunday.
Joey I think he has a right to speak his mind to a certain extent.
But I feel he comes off as arrogant with some of the things he says, and nothing that comes out of his mouth is ever beneficail to anybody.
Last winter as someone said, Posada was clamoring for an ace. Not only is that an insult to Wang, it hurts the Yankees bargaining position with Santana and the Twins.
Then this year he’s complaining that he’s not catching. Well if you can’t throw anyone out how do you expect to catch? They tried that and he was throwing lame ducks to 2nd. He KNEW his labrum was toast, yet he still felt the need to question Girardi in the media. Are you kidding me?
Now this Joba nonsense, which has been beaten to death.
If Jorge has an opinion, voice it to Cashman or Girardi. Even call Hank up if you want. But running your mouth to the media does no good unless you’re the media. Then it helps sell newspapers, so they eat it up.
I don’t care how well they hit, dreadful pitching & shoddy defense would go nowhere in the playoffs.
Dead on Pete………very good analysis. I had not thought of it like that, and although tough to place the blame onto any player/position, it is a glaring sore of the face of the Yankees this year.
I understand people disagreeing with his opinion, Miggs, but not their carping about his expressing one. He’s done it all his career, he said similar things early in the season about Joba, his team-mates are accustomed to his giving out his opinions, and every other day someone is saying Jeter or Girardi ought to be more like him and speak up, both privately and publicly. Then the next thing you hear is people screaming he should keep it to himself.
My opinion? People think he should speak up when he says what they want to hear, and they decide he should clam up when he says something they don’t want to hear.
Plain hypocrisy in my book.
beneficial*
MArk—
Pretty good list. I’d put Winfield in LF since it was his primary position in his first three Yankees seasons. No mention of Goose Gossage?
Boston, Toronto, and Tampa all have good pitching, but they also have good defense.
I rarely criticize the Yankees, but keeping Darrell in the rotation for so long is puzzling to say the least. He had a great May, but after that it was gruesome:
http://mlb.mlb.com/stats/indiv.....statType=2
Mark:
Under the relievers list, you’d probably want to include one Rich “Goose” Gossage.
Mark, looking at that list makes me realize how blessed, (some would say spoiled), we Yankee fans really are. When one can say that The Mick is the SECOND best CF in Yankee history you really see how great this team has been.
Two things: Goose belongs on the reliever list and what about Soriano at 2b?
What’s with the Burnett love fest? I hope the Yankees stay far away from Burnett. He’s a mediocre pitcher against everyone but the Yankees. He’s never had even one great season. He’s injury prone, and he’ll be 32 at the start of next season. Top that with the crazy amount of money he’ll most likely want. I’d say thanks, but no thanks. If the Yankees do sign a FA pitcher I hope it’s C.C., and either one of Moose or Andy, but not both.
Jorge has every right to speak his mind. He just doesn’t practice the art of diplomacy very well. Sometimes you say things, you wish you didn’t say. The Wang is not an ace thing is one of them. Jorge did say something afterwards to try and smooth things out, but he didn’t really mean it. He was much more diplomatic about it this time saying they needed to fill the rotation out.
He hit a nerve with Joba, probably hurt Pudge, and made Pedro blow a gasket.
The entertainment value of tweaking Pedro is priceless. Carry on, Jorge!
I knew I forgot at least one great player, and Goose was my favorite pitcher growing up. How embarrassing. Probably, I could have put Catfish on as well.
When Soriano was here, I made sure to never miss an at-bat, he was maybe the most exciting player since Rickey, but I didn’t think that his 3 years constituted enough time. Think about it, Cano has been the second baseman longer than Sori. Knoblauch was brief as well, but 3 WS.
mel
I love hidden pictures in Highlights!
1. Robi doing ‘time out’ in Mr. Steinbrenner’s office
Picture #2- Facing the wall
2. The candy backback and who’s responsible for it
Pink backpack in Aceves’ locker
3. Who’s locker is filled with mail?
Jeter.
4. Who’s depicted in the stained glass window?
George Steinbrenner.
mel,
There was nobody better than Rasner available though.
Hughes was injured and they wanted to shield him from the NY hounds anyway. They did not believe Kennedy’s minor league numbers were legit (and the Anaheim start only further affirmed that).
Nobody in AAA was doing anything– Horne/Marquez were injured. McCutchen had a mediocre season. Karstens was Karstens. Igawa is the worst pitcher in the farm. Aceves was average when he first arrived at AAA. Then they tried to covert Ohlendorf into a stater and was eventually traded.
I suppose they could have given Giese one more chance after the Mets game, but there really weren’t very many options.
Jeter’s first half was as responsible for the putrid results as anyone else’s and his final #’s should not hide this. He spent most of the first half with an OPS well below 700 and failed in numerous key ’situational’ moments. His 2nd half is encouraging and suggests the injury was a key factor, but then again, the season was lost in the first half. So to pin it on Cano and the catchers without mentioning this is sycophancy at its best – we need to hold our $20MM SS as accountable as our $28MM whipping boy or the ‘goat of the day’ Mr. Cano (both of whom are guilty of their own shortcomings). And it is telling that it’s up to the manager to police Cano and not our captain. Jeter has too much clout not to use it for better effect inside the room.
“I knew I forgot at least one great player, and Goose was my favorite pitcher growing up. How embarrassing. Probably, I could have put Catfish on as well.”
How could you leave off Dale Berra
pat,
Wasn’t #1 kind of odd? Is it a statuette?
I was thinking Wang. There were no articles of clothing, just mail and packages.
Steinbrenner batting?
Funny, I always pictured Steinbrenner’s office the way it was on Seinfeld. Carry on Body Suit Man!
Col,
I know there are “reasons”, but I would’ve at least given Chase Wright a shot.
It didn’t seem so bad at the time, but to see the cumulative results like that is striking. September? Wow.
Given the height, I thought the one facing the corner was Pedroia trying to hide that he was in the Yankee Office.
I think the stained glass figure is Mantle.
big stein wants a big calzoooone. he must have one
Timmy,
With the holes in the rotation you’ve got to go for AJ & CC. If you get both, great. If you only get one, we’ll be alright. But you’ve got to go for both.
CC threw 240+ inning last year. He’s already at 230+. I know he’s a workhorse, but jeez.
CC’s ERA dropped 2 full runs by switching leagues. Think that kind of stuff factors in? Like a chance to be the most dominant pitcher in the NL for the next few years?
It’s sad to see Pettitte’s demise— he has turned into a glorified Darrell Rasner. He has no outpitch. his cutter isn’t fooling anybody, he just gets pounded start after start.
I’m disappointed he hasn’t made adjustments like Mussina, I guess he really is toast.
I think we also need to throw in there Matsui’s absence from the lineup this year as well on the offensive side.
Last year he scored 100 runs had 103 RBI
CC has already turned down a ton of money…. my guess is he’ll choose the offer that gives him the most chances to win at a high level. His innings spioked last year and Ned Toast mishandled him by racking up too many innnings in the last month.
I sorta agree on Burnett, but he has such incredible talent he’s hard to resist. Oliver Perez might make sense, too and won’t cost as much most likely.
AWESOME!
Just checking in to say hey and offer some musings and ramblings. The interesting part of attempting to determine what torpedoed the season is that if anyone had the total pulse, it would be the first step in determining how to fix it for next season.
I think you need more than the wisdom of Solomon to figure this one out. I’d say that we ended up with a confluence of events that created the perfect storm. It’s nearly impossible (for me anyway) to figure out which pieces of the puzzle are the largest, even though it may seem obvious. Since I don’t subscribe to the theory of predetermined outcomes, it’s tough to say that if Jorge and Sui had not gone down, that would have been the bromide. Who knows how they would have hit throughout the season. Their absence hurt, of course. Then who’s to say that if all of our starting pitching had worked out the way we wanted it to that our offense would have gotten the job done. Is it possible that since out pitching ended up tanking early the offense pressed too hard right from the beginning, trying harder than they should have had to? I know that Jeter’s lack of timely hitting hurt us. So did Arod’s. But you can’t rely on two people to carry a team. If you do you’re in trouble. Would Robby having a good season made enough difference to overcome the dismal offense?
For me at least, too many questions and not enough answers since it is impossible to look at the pieces in isolation and say that fixing one or two would necessarily have made everything right.
I was and continue to be a huge Girardi fan, but there were times that I think he neglected to do some things that may have made a difference. (Sit Robby sooner, move Jason down in the lineup, sit players or move them around if they are not producing for long periods of time.) So throw him into the mix also.
I would love to see some fire in our lineup. The thing I love about watching the kids play is that they play hard. Maybe we need a mix to rub off on some of our veterans.
A very confusing season, all said and done.
I really don’t see Sabathia coming here… he seems to really like the NL. I don’t even think it is a west coast thing anymore. I also think the strict rules of the Yankees (no facial hair, no candy etc.) and the immense pressure are turnoffs for a laid back guy like CC. The Yankees just may be the worst fit for him n that regard– not only are we on the East Coast but he had to adhere to rules and pressure which he doesn’t have to anywhere else. Why should he subject himself to that for 8 years just to get a few million more?
He’ll get a 9-figure check from every team, so he’ll get paid regardless.
sabathia will like the team with the biggest pay out. he got offered a ton of money to stay in cleveland and he didnt.
About the Mets – hard to crack on a team for swooning after they’ve lost their closer!
I’m pretty sure it’s all ARod’s fault.
“he got offered a ton of money to stay in cleveland and he didnt.”
They didn’t offer a lot of years as I remember it. That’s the key. Even the Twins were willing to pay Santana $20M. They just wren’t willing to do it for more than 4 years. Guaranteed years is the key, but in the Yankees case it will require both years and ridiculous dollars.
Mel,
I realize C.C. turned into Cy Young the minute he switched leagues. I said I hope the Yankees pursue him, but If I were C.C. I wouldn’t want to the leave the NL. There are holes in the rotation, but the last thing the Yankees need to do is sign a league average injury prone starting pitcher to a big money multi-year deal. Burnett is a league average pitcher who will want “Ace” money. He certainly is not an Ace regardless of how he pitches against NY. I guess I’m just gunshy due to the Yankees recent experience with free agent pitchers.
The Sabathia situation comes down to math and geography.
Yes, he would like to stay on the West Coast. The issue is, how much does he want to leave on the table to do so?
Anaheim won’t give anything close to what other teams (ie: the Yankees) will offer. Especially since it looks like they are going to back up the Brinks truck to keep Tex.
The Dodgers? Historically, Frank McCourt is quite cheap. He now has the pressure of signing Manny because he has become a cult favorite in LA and looks like he is leading them to the playoffs. Can he afford Manny AND CC? Doubtful. He has to make a choice, which will impact the CC negotiations.
SD, Oakland and SF? Non-players for him.
Also, don’t discount the Players Associtation. They play a VERY active role with high profile free agents. They want those guys to sign for as much as they can because it sets the bar for other players.
For example, if CC has a 160 million dollar offer on the table from the Yankees, and a 120 million dollar offer on the table from the Dodgers, does he leave 40 million on the table? Will the Players Association want him to do so?
All of that plays into his negotiations.
While he may “prefer” to stay on the West Coast, he may not end up signing with a West Coast team. Especially if he has no interest leaving that much money on the table.
The New York Jets weren’t even on the radar when Brett Favre decided to leave Green Bay. He wanted to play for the Vikings. We see where he ended up.
From the Yankees perspective, they need 2 of the top free agent starting pitchers. That has to be priority #1 in the off-season.
You make the offers, recruit like crazy, and look to reel them in. That has to be the plan to start the off-season.
This is why it is so hard to fix a team with only free agents. So many questions around all of them:
Is CC the Milwaukee version, or would we get the first half AL version, how big can he get and still be effective?
Is Burnett pitching well to get a contract? What is his motivation once he gets it? How does a guy with the stuff he has have the record and ERA that he has?
Can Sheets stay healthy or is he Pavano redux? Can he consistently get out AL lineups?
Peavy is not a FA, but a trade possibility, but can he pitch to AL lineups in a more hitter friendly park? Could an excitable guy like him handle NY.
And on and on. Sign one of these guys and they don’t work out and it really sets the team back. Don’t sign one who lights it up somewhere else and it is even worse.
“I realize C.C. turned into Cy Young the minute he switched leagues”
Tim:
Sabathia didn’t turn into anything. He left Cleveland as the reigning AMERICAN LEAGUE Cy Young Award winner.
anyone know of ANYTHING special going on at saturday pre game?
Like Pete has said in past, what a waste of a ‘last series’ ceremony…though i guess if theyre sold out regardless…not much motivation?!
im going to sats game and was just hoping to see something special other than a recorded National Anthem….
SJ, you’re wrong there.
Favre WAS on the Jets radar, but it wasn’t getting much play. The Vikings were favored because of geographical proximity, and the Bucs attracted media attention as well because of the whole Simms/Garcia/Gruden issue, but people have a habit of forgetting the Jets.
You can’t call the Jets a small market team in NY, but they play like one.
Even on ESPN there was once a quote–”outside of long island and some parts of New Jersey, does anyone even care?”–referring to the Jets.
[/steps off soapbox]
“Is Burnett pitching well to get a contract?”
Burnett’s ERA this year is actually his highest since he became a full time starter. My concern with him is that he only seems to make 30 starts the year his contract is up.
“Favre WAS on the Jets radar, but it wasn’t getting much play.”
Wasn’t getting much play because the Jets weren’t on Favre’s radar…which was SJ’s point. He’s only on the Jets because the Pack wouldn’t trade him to an NFC team. Favre was not thrilled, as evidenced his initial press conference when he went thru it with a look of a guy who was just told he had 3 weeks to live.
Good Afternoon.
Congrats to your captain Derek Jeter. I enjoyed watching the highlights this AM. Regardless of the “rivalry” I enjoy and respect the way Jeter plays the game of baseball day in and day out. If you dislike Derek Jeter you are more than likely and ex-girlfriend of his or not a true baseball fan.
Take care and have a good afternoon.
-dennis
Fredo,
I know he won the CY last year. I just meant he’s made the NL his whipping boy since he arrived. RE Sheets, I don’t think he’d cut it in the AL either. The only NL pitcher I want to see the Yankees acquire is Lincecum, but that will never happen.
mel
“Wasn’t #1 kind of odd? Is it a statuette?”
I think it’s a doll. I’ve seen them in stores before. It’s just funny that someone put it in “time out” facing the corner
“I was thinking Wang. There were no articles of clothing, just mail and packages.”
I know Jeter has 2 lockers and one is just for mail. Not sure if that is his though.
“Steinbrenner batting?”
It’s a lefty swing and my first thought was Mantle but
it looks more like George from 30 years ago.
Rebecca,
I work within the NFL in the Fall. The Jets were on Favre. He wasn’t on the Jets.
Mike Tannenbaum had to convince him that coming to NY would be good for him. Favre had no interest in coming to NY.
He also had no interest in going to Tampa because, he’s not that into Gruden. Gruden LOVES Favre. Favre doesn’t love Gruden.
The Vikings weren’t the favorite because of geography. They were the favorite because Favre loves Darrell Bevel, their OC (who was with him in Green Bay) and has a lot of respect for Brad Childress.
He also liked the idea of playing indoors with a Super Bowl contender. They would be if he, not Tavaris Jackson, was at QB. He could also play the Packers twice a year, giving him the chance to stick it to Ted Thompson.
Kudos to Tannebaum for convincing him to give NY a try.
However, if Brett was a free agent, he wouldn’t have signed with the Jets. He would have gone to Minnesota. That’s why he was angling for his outright release from the Packers.
Its truly amazing how an offense can go from being the most feared, most patient offense one year to the most maligned, most impatient offense the very next year.
““Steinbrenner batting?â€
It’s a lefty swing and my first thought was Mantle but
it looks more like George from 30 years ago.”
The sideburns are too short for George of that era. It has more of the look of Mantle’s swing.
“Had the Yankees been scoring runs though, maybe the Hughes Kennedy starts would have better results.”
Hughes’ ERA is 9.00. A few more runs would not have helped him.
““Had the Yankees been scoring runs though, maybe the Hughes Kennedy starts would have better results.â€
Hughes’ ERA is 9.00. A few more runs would not have helped him.”
Heres the story. Phil is a good pitcher he was just hurt all year, in case you missed it he had a phenomenal spring training his injury obviously affected how he pitched. IPK stinks and does not have the stuff or velocity to make it in the majors.
Why is it so surprising?
Guys aren’t machines. Every year brings different issues. Just becuase something happened last year doesn’t guarantee it will happen this year.
As the old saying goes, “that’s why they play the games”.
This team didn’t hit for almost half of last year. They got red hot in the second half, which produced many of those high numbers.
Then, as in the previous 3 post-seasons, they went ice cold.
The only difference this year is, the slumping lasted through most of the season. A byproduct of injuries, lack of PED’s, and age to many of the guys in the lineup.
It happens. That’s why the team has to be re-tooled in a big way in the off-season.
You have to change the culture that’s currently within this group. The belief that the season doesn’t “really” start until July is one thing that has to change.
You do that by getting younger. Younger players start faster than older players. Older players tend to pace themselves and sometimes pace themselves too much.
This season was the culmination of an era of Yankee Baseball. Next year begins a new era, hopefully with a lot of new players on the roster. Its time.
My take is this. Teams do not win, or rely on to win 7th 8th and 9th hitters in the batting order.
While they were bad, (Cano and the catchers, and even Melky for that matter) the guys in the 3, 4, and 5 spots are there to drive in runs, and win games. Everytime our #4 guy melts with winning runs on base late, that is a missed opportunity that he passes on to a much lower skilled player, the opportunity to win the game. Only Abreu hit in the clutch this year.
Al,
Did IPK say he had filthy stuff last night and pitched a great ballgame?
Short starts from the starters do more damage than almost anything else that goes on with a team.
The Yankees had too many 4-5 inning starts from starting pitchers this year. Those are killers.
Starters have to be able to go 6-7 innings 80+% of the time. If they can’t, bullpens begin to fail.
For the last 3-4 years, the Yankees have had a hard time finding 4 guys in the rotation who can give them innings. For every Wang, there is a Rasner. Its killed this staff for years.
This year, they put 40% of the rotation in the hands of rookies. Rookies mind you, that still would have had innings limits even if they pitched well.
I don’t see them making that same mistake again in 2009.
Somehow, some way, I think you will see 4 veteran, non-innings limited, starting pitchers in the Yankee rotation.
The fifth spot? Probably Joba, unless health forces him out of that slot.
If they can set up their starters this way, the bullpen has the chance to be unreal with the addition of a guy like Melancon to the mix.
“Its truly amazing how an offense can go from being the most feared, most patient offense one year to the most maligned, most impatient offense the very next year.”
Well when you give 2000 plate appearances to Melky/Cano/Molina/Gardner/Pudge/Betemit/Gonzalez/Moeller/Christian/Stewart/Duncan/Ensberg you shouldn’t expect good results. These same guys are collectively hitting .210/.269/.292 in over 500 plate appearances with RISP.
The Yankees have gotten nothing out of 2B/C/CF/Bench all year long, and that’s why the offensive numbers have dropped off so much from last year.
Also, the 55 starts with a 6.48 ERA and 4.8 IP/start from Ponson/Rasner/Hughes/Kennedy/Igawa/Pavano was unacceptable pitching for over one-third of the games for a team that expects to contend.
And Abreu was the worst defensive rightfielder in baseball this year. Most Yankee players are average at best defensively, many of them slightly below average.
But the biggest problems were the 3 or 4 dead lineup spots each game, combined with 1/3 of the games being started by crap pitchers. The overall results should not be that surprising given how many crap players have been given so much playing time. Cano is really the only surprising crap player in the group.
The last Yankee team to allocate this much playing time to this many crappy players was the 1991 team.
This address has a Mantle picture that looks a lot like that stained glass.
http://i.cdn.turner.com/sivaul.....304862.jpg
“It’s amazing that roughly the same players can have that dramatic a swing.”
Teams have better pitching this year in AL – that’s why the Angels are walking away with AL West. Toronto, Tampa and even Baltimore improved their pitching vastly too.
It all starts and ends with pitching and that’s why the Yanks got to make it priority #1 in off season.
“Hughes and Kennedy were winless, Rasner, Pavano and Ponson were awful.”
SJ, I beg to differ on that one.
Pavano didn’t lose a single game until September.
C’mon … know your facts, dude. Get with the program.
to me, it’s not just the RISP BA, but that there were so many less RISP opportunities. according to the stats Pete cited, there were 362 less RISP opportunities this year.
so that’s about about 8.4 RISP opportunities in 2008, compared to about 10.1 in 2007.
“Had the Yankees been scoring runs though, maybe the Hughes Kennedy starts would have better results.â€
Hughes’ ERA is 9.00. A few more runs would not have helped him.
That 9.00 ERA was based on 1 months work at the beginning of the season and it is shrouded in mystery because we will never really know how much of his ineffectiveness was casued by the rib cage injury.
People are forgetting why there was so much anticipation with him heading into this year. He was great down the stretch in September last year and saved our season for one more day in the ALDS against Cleveland.
The reason why Hughes had a disasterous season this year, is because he was “lost” for the year due to the injury … you honestly think that if he was healthy and pitching for the Yankees all year long he would been just another Kei Igawa? He never had the opportunity to pitch thru his early season troubles, find any sort of rhythm, learn from his mistakes, adjust to the competition, etc.
If you have an explanation for this, I’d like to hear it……OK…WE STINK !….Next ???
“While they were bad, (Cano and the catchers, and even Melky for that matter) the guys in the 3, 4, and 5 spots are there to drive in runs, and win games.”
Your 3,4,5 hitters in every inning, not just the first inning, have to drive in runs and that calls from a contribution from the whole line-up, not just 3 guys.
Macadamia Nut
It is a similiar pose just missing the sideburns.
Trying to pin this season on any one factor is futile, because there were so many factors that went awry. We can just call it a failed team effort (team failed effort?), but I guess that would end the debate over how was most at fault.
There’s definitely a synergy to these kinds of things and just like sometimes good things happen and bring everything else up a level, this season not-so-good things happened and each one dragged the effort down a little more.
As a fan, I’m gonna just write this one off. Of course, I do hope that certain factors are addressed in the off-season.
“Shortstop–Jeter, Rizzuto, list ends there”
Bucky Dent deserves to be on that list, even if it’s only for one thing.
Pete, you make a couple good points on 2B and C not living up to collective expectations.
You and others point out the injuries to key starters, or the shortcomings of the guys called on to be their replacements. Except for Moose, the rotation became a total mess this year … even Pettitte is struggling now.
Giambi had a slightly better year than some expected, and Mientkiewicz wasn’t really a hitter last year. But Giambi’s still about a .250 hitter which isn’t saying much.
That’s not even taking into account Matsui’s knee injury. Melky’s bad year. Gardner & Christion not really being ready yet for the call-ups they got. Abreu’s defensive shortcomings. Damon’s occasional aches. Without going into any more of the numerous details, these altogether cover so many of the Yanks extensive problems this year.
It just amazes me, though, how many people want to lay the blame squarely on A-Rod (or even Jeter) for not being able to make up for ALL of that and carrying the team to the playoffs.
Anyone who’s dumped on A-Rod or Jeter for this all season should be given little or no credibility.
“The Yankees had too many 4-5 inning starts from starting pitchers this year. Those are killers.
Starters have to be able to go 6-7 innings 80+% of the time. If they can’t, bullpens begin to fail.”
Absolutely SJ.
86 made the point that a basketful of disappointing pitchers made north of 30% of the starts this year (the usuals suspects). You can get away with an underperforming pitcher holding down the 5th spot in the rotation, but you cannot survive with them making so many starts.
As SJ points out, it isn’t just that they pitch badly, it is that they cause their teammates to pitch badly – in a sense contaminating the other starters because of their poor performance. The taxed bullpen ruins the starts of your 1-3 guys in the rotation.
This is why CC is indispensable – just look at his game log to see the number of starts with fewer than 7 innings. It is remarkable how good he is a working deep into games – in both the AL and NL. He will make the bullpen better, he will make the other members of the rotation better, and all he costs is money – not a single prospect.
He is creating leverage by stressing his West Coast ties and his ‘love’ for the NL. Just write the check Hank and Hal, just write the check.
I really don’t think you can blame the catcher’s spot and Cano based on Runs Scored and RBI. Those stats went down because the lineup all around sucked. You can’t drive in runners if there’s no one on base, and you can’t score runs if you’re constantly being stranded.
That said, I do agree that both of those slots had a huge dropoff in production, as did almost every other spot in the lineup (except for probably Damon and Abreu, but don’t quote me on this, I haven’t checked the numbers).
The real reason this team tanked, as someone pointed out before, was that they relied on two rookies right out of the gate. When Wang hit the DL they were cooked. What they should have done was start Hughes at the beginning of the season and left Kennedy in AAA. Kennedy should have been called up after the first injury. That would have worked out better, I think.
Pat, that is a pretty young Mantle, look at some of his later year pictures and you will see the side burns!
George’s sideburns were well below his ears.
Stu, my point about if the hitting was better for Hughes, he might have had more of an opportunity to get on track. Granted the injury killed most of the season, though I think he was out longer than needed. I wonder if the Yankees were working on his mechanics over some of that time in an effort to figure out why he broke the ribs.
Oh, and about CC…. I’d be wary of him after the way the Brewers are burning him out. He’s had how many complete games since the trade?
What about Bobby Meacham??
Maybe the Yankees should tell Hughes and Kennedy they are gonna pitch the whole year in Triple-A. Look at Coke – he is 26? 25? And he has developed into a good prospect. Instead of trying to trade those two or rushing them to majors, they are still young enough that an entire year in the minors won’t hurt. Pelfrey finally delivered this year, so can Hughes and Kennedy.
TK,
If the Yanks get CC, a front end combo of CC and Wang will do wonders for the pen. Well, it will be an interesting off-season, one that reminds me of the 1992 off-season when guys like Maddux and Bonds wanted nothing to do with the Yankees $$.
Let’s hope that isn’t the case this year.
I don’t want to look at the stats because they’re probably ugly, but Hughes and Kennedy had very quick hooks. I don’t think they were given the opportunity to wiggle out of trouble like the vets were. Andy got out of his mess last night and pitched fine after that. The kids weren’t given that opportunity.
One thing I noticed about Hughes last season is that when he had rough starts, he’d settle down and do pretty well.
Kennedy had 7 K’s last night, but I think he gave up 7 hits, too. Still throwing way too many pitches as he gets into a lot of jams. Is that the caveats of a pitcher that relies on location?
Get me CC & AJ. I’ll take their 450 combined strikeouts.
“He is creating leverage by stressing his West Coast ties and his ‘love’ for the NL. Just write the check Hank and Hal, just write the check.”
Ain’t going to be about the amount, TK. Yankees will have no problem there. It’ll be the years. Long term (read more than 4 years) FA contracts for pitchers have historically worked out disasterously the VAST majority of the time. He’s not getting done for less than 7 years and whoever gets him will almost certainly regret at least three of those.
pat
September 17th, 2008 at 1:06 pm
“While they were bad, (Cano and the catchers, and even Melky for that matter) the guys in the 3, 4, and 5 spots are there to drive in runs, and win games.â€
Your 3,4,5 hitters in every inning, not just the first inning, have to drive in runs and that calls from a contribution from the whole line-up, not just 3 guys.
_________________________________________________
One thing that nobody has mentioned is that the Yankees will have walked more than 100 times fewer this year than last year. They’ll also strike out about 50 times less. Obviously, not all of those walks were going to score, but, it would have extended innings, That’s more batters, more pitches by opposition and starters out of the games earlier. More base runners means more chances for hits and that would have produced more runs. And that’s including 2 position players that would not normally been playing. I’m sure a mathematician could work it out, but, I can’t.
Ansky,
My point re: Pavano is they had 4 years and 40 million tied up in him and what they got out of him amounted to next to nothing.
A handful of starts, and short one’s at that, this year is just awful. He as much as anybody contributed to this season because of the money and lack of production tied up with him for the last 4 years.
It all goes on the pile when dissecting the 2008 NY Yankees.
“Oh, and about CC…. I’d be wary of him after the way the Brewers are burning him out. He’s had how many complete games since the trade?”
This is a smart thing to be worried about – but a week or so ago I checked out his pitch counts and they are not obscene – above 100/game, but only 130 once.
Fredo,
Then you (ab)use him for 3 years and trade him while his arm’s still attached. Joba’s threshold should be right around 200 innings by then.
If you abuse him for 3 years and he still has 4yr/100mil left on his deal, he isn’t going anywhere. He’ll be the pitching version of the dancing bear(Giambi)
has anybody bothered to look at the number of starts made by rookies last year? It’s almost the same as this year’s numbers by those you called inferior and nearly the same ERA. Starting pitching has been brutal to non-existant for two years.
Posoda should take care of himself terrible performance first,and stop talking about Joba or other starters.
Fredo –
CC is younger than the average FA signing, plus he bears no resemblance to Barry Zero, um, Zito.
Mel, Kennedy’s number of pitches is because of the number of foul balls. The strikes to balls count isn’t bad and neither are the walks. He has much the same trouble as Ponson, Rasner, Geise and this year, Pettitte….long at bats beause of the fouls. They couldn’t miss bats enough. Not just getting strikeouts but pitches not good enough to hit and too bad to miss.
First game in the New Stadium–April 16 against the Indians. First sox series May 4.
Anyone know how early the Stadium will be opened on Sunday? I think we will probably head down to get there as early as we can, but I don’t want to have to hang out for 6 hours waiting to get in either. And my idea of a good time will not be sitting in one of the bars in the Bronx for 6 hours either. I know gates open 2 hours prior to game time but wondered if it would be any earlier on Sunday.
disagree with some of the posts. A guy hits 4th because he is the guy that has the best chance to drive in runs. If he performs like a 7, 8, or 9 hitter you cannot win consistently.
The 7, 8, and 9 hitters are not players to be counted upon to win games regularly, as if they were they would be in RBI spots in the lineup.
Its the same in any sport, If your best shooter cannot hit shots in the clutch dwon the stretch you dont win. The Yankees needed about 10 or so additional cltuch hits from the 4 and 5 spot over the course of the season and they`d be right there.
I agree, Cashman put 40% of his rotation and starts into inexperienced untested rookies in toughest offensive division in baseball. Once they failed and contributed to 9 losses (which if they won 1/2 they`d still be in it) Cashman had no choice but to turn the 40% of starts over to AAAA pitchers or retreads. Then you have Wang go down, and you cant blame him for that
Haha, comparing the catcher’s stats.
It doesn’t take a genius to see after a fluke contract year from Posada last year, and the total suckiness from Moeller, Molina and even I-Rod this season suck.
I agree Nimrod…seriously, did anyone ever expect the output from Molina, Moeller and Pudge to equal Posada’s peak year? It doesn’t take a statistician to analyze what would happen at the position if Posada went down. Why do you think everyone was so down when it was announced Posada was done for the season?
Some people like to complicate things by throwing around numbers that don’t even need to be presented to prove a point.
Breaking news….If A-Rod or Jeter went down for the season, the Yankees wouldn’t be as good.
ant!-mussina
September 17th, 2008 at 10:40 am
CC, Wang, Joba, Burnett, Hughes
what about that for pitching?:
joba is not a # 3 pitcher yet,burnett is an injury risk and not worth 15 million a yera.
how about sabathia,wang,billingsley(trade),mussina,joba?
trade cano,kennedy,betances for billingsley.
the yankees need to sign 3 pitchers to go with wang,joba.sabathia would be nice but i am not so sure if he will sign.
they should also try and trade for a solid young pitcher in addition to signing 2 fa pitchers like sabathia and sheets,perez.i would love to see them trade for sherzer from arizona.
sabathia,wang,perez,sherzer,joba.
trade cano,kennedy,betances for sherzer,trade hughes and prospects for a center fielder,trade prospects and matsui for a first baseman,sign hudson or another second baseman.now you fix centerfield,first base,pitching and next year you can work on the corner outfield spots.
it would be nice to at least hold onto brackman,ajax,montero,melancon but i would trade any and all of them to make the above a reality.
brackman could be a monster and we will start to see him pitch in 2010.