Doing the right thing pays off
-
- October
- 12
Jon Lester has pitched in five postseason games, three of them starts. His numbers:
23.1 innings
16 hits
2 earned runs
7 walks
19 strikeouts
.498 opposing OPS
Boston manager Terry Francona talked about how cautiously they used Lester in 2007 after his cancer treatments. Lester didn’t pitch in any games in spring training then was assigned to their low Single-A team to start the year. He made 18 starts in the minors that season and pitched in only 12 games in the majors.
But when the time came, he won the clinching game of the World Series.
“I think if they had let me go without restrictions I would have got hurt,” Lester said.
Obviously beating lymphoma is different than a fractured rib or rotator cuff tendinitis. But the theory holds true: You can’t take a pitcher in his early 20s who has had health issues and just throw him out there. Lester threw 127.2 innings in 2006. He got to 163 in 2007 and this year is at 224.3. Gradual progression is what works.
This is why you can’t criticize the Yankees for being as cautious as they have been with Joba Chamberlain and Phil Hughes and why it would be insanity to just make Joba a starter and run him out there 33 times next season. The single most precious commodity in baseball are young, talented starters and you have to protect them.
Hopefully for their sakes, the blog entry on Oct. 12, 2009 is about Joba or Phil getting ready for a big postseason start. Those guys are every bit as talented as Lester. It’s just a matter now of staying healthy and showing people what they can do.
This entry was posted
on Sunday, October 12th, 2008 at 5:14 pm by Peter Abraham.
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Posted this in the last entry, but Jennings has his projected rotations up. No mention of Phil Hughes.
http://emedia.thetimes-tribune.com/Blogs/SWBYankees/tabid/552/Default.aspx
That’s AAA & AA rotations.
So how much longer do I have to hear everybody hype up this Dallas team and have them be….. not good? If I hear about how they’re the most talented team in football again I may throw a brick through my tv screen.
I think that Hughes will either be in the rotation or traded
Rob NY,
I can’t believe they took that safety off the board. Yeah he was going to throw, but tucked when the defender was on him. B-O-G-U-S.
Tom,
If Hughes dominates AFL, then he won’t be traded. He’s worth more if he can pitch well for us over the next 6 years (or whatever it is) than what he brings back.
Dream about Adrian Gonazalez, Left-eye Loney, Jake Peavey, and whoever else, but he’s not going. Especially for pitching. Hughes didn’t go in the Santana trade and there are 3 good FAs on the market. If you don’t get one of those 3, Hughes brings more to the table (IMO) than what you’re going to get for him anyway.
They’ll want Joba and Hughes to do what Wang did for us. We didn’t go way over slot for pitchers just so we could trade them away.
Hey Mel is it me or is Troy Aikman a bit of a homer? Maybe it’s just because I hate ‘dem Cowboys but it takes away from the game when all he does is talk about how good this team is.
The only one of our big three I’m concerned about is Ian Kennedy. Ian, in one of his starts, gives up a bunch of runs and says that he didn’t do that bad. It’s one thing not to beat yourself up so bad over a bad start but it’s another to completely deny reality. Players who have thrived as Yankees really need to have their heads screwed on pretty darn straight. Or they become Ed Whitson. I wouldn’t be surprised if they traded Ian as they did with Jose Tabata.
Well you can take the HOFer out of Dallas, but you can’t take Dallas out of the HOFer.
Disgusting how pro-Cowboys this crowd is.
Oy,Pete, I agree about Lester, but two Sox posts in a row?
Right now I think it’s more appropriate to compare Lester with Joba, not Hughes
Art,
From the last thread, Manny didn’t crack. He didn’t even snap. He’s wanted out of Boston for years. He just made sure they didn’t pick up the option.
” Tom October 12th, 2008 at 5:27 pm
I think that Hughes will either be in the rotation or traded”
way to go out on a limb there Tom.
Nets played in London today?
harwood, what I ment was he will either be on the team out of spring training and in the rotation or he will be traded this winter. I don’t see him begining the year in AAA.
Pete,
I don’t think anyone wants to see the Yanks throw Joba out there for 33 starts and 200+ innings, but I also don’t think it is right for them to pull this “start in the pen, move to the rotation” BS again next year. First, as it showed this year, it doesn’t mean crap when it comes to keeping the guy healthy. Second, it puts the players development ahead of the team itself. Finally, there is no reason for it considering the Yanks, like ALL other teams, can limit Joba’s innings simply by watching them. There will be games when Joba gets a lot of run support, meaning he can be pulled off 5 innings. You can skip him on the rotation every once in a while. There are plenty of things you can do, that teams with OLDER pitchers do to limit innings, with ping ponging the kid back and forth. That’s my dispute.
And as far as Hughes goes…..................the Yanks protected the kid as much as anyone else has been protected and it didn’t matter all that much when it came to his staying durable. I know you really like Hughes, but this idea that Hughes was somehow mishandled by the Yanks is, i believe, ludicrous. For whatever reason (bad mechanics, a disturbing tendency towards injury) Hughes has been injured these last few seasons and there isn’t much the Yanks could have done differently. To me, what it shows is this: you certainly want to be careful and cautious with great young pitching, but this idea that there is a “perfect” way to develop a player is absurd. Some guys have it, some don’t. If Hughes doesn’t succeed, Pete, it is because he isn’t durable or isn’t talented enough to be a big time pitcher, not because the Yanks did something to hurt his cause.
He better be either in the rotation or traded
Another year of AAA does NOTHING for him. Also, if we sign 2 FA pitchers, you’ll have FA, FA, Wang, Joba, Andy/Moose. Where does that leave Hughes? If they don’t sign 2 FAs or any FAs, then he will be in the rotation.
If he isin’t going to be in the rotation next year, might as well trade him for some young position player. Then again, if Joba breaks down again or AJ inevitably gets injured, or Andy/Moose walk away in a year, it is nice to have him. But by then, the next wave of arms should be upon us anyway.
Lester’s problem was his cancer obviously, physically he had no problems.
Hughes and Joba on the otherhand, have a ton of medical red flags. Joba experienced shoulder problems twice this year, it occurred again in Fenway during the final weekend. He was shut down for 6 weeks and only came back as a reliever. He has a violent motion and is a husky guy so his shoulder AND knees are at risk. Posada was right when he said he is not built for 200 innings. We have to believe it when we see it.
Hughes’ new mechanics have been nothing but trouble. He has gotten Pavano-type freak injuries. NoMaas highlighted his injury history dating back to 04, and he was injured every year except 2006. So obviously this is a common theme with him but it only exacerbated with his new mechanics.
As you said Pete, they need to prove they can stay healthy. Thats why I think it is dangerous to allot both of them spots in the rotation at the same time until they prove they are durable enough individually.
sublett and romine both in the lineup in HW
Jerzz
That was my point. All of the stories concerning the yankees offseason plans say something along the lines of “the Yankees intend on signing 2 free agent starting pitchers this offseason…”.
Then there’s this from the post:
” With the rotation deepened by free agency, use pitching prospects in particular to obtain a prime-age, high-ceiling player at first or in the outfield.”
Seems the plan is to sign 2 fa starters; Resign Either Moose or Andy; Trade pitching prospects (Hughes?) for young stud 1b of of.
http://www.fannation.com/truth_and_rumors/view/73510
Hopefully for their sakes, the blog entry on Oct. 12, 2009 is about Joba or Phil getting ready for a big postseason start
Hellz yeah!
Mel: Amen to that. Jake Peavy is awesome, the reigning National League Cy Young award winner, under 30, and has the most amazing blue eyes since Paul Newman. San Diego would rightly want the earth, moon, and stars in return for his services. Young home-grown talent is worth the time it takes to develop. The Yankees are in it for the long haul with Phil, Joba, et al.
Sherman has the right idea… that would be the smart thing to do. Sign 2 FA pitchers then use Hughes to net us a stud young position player.
No point in having all these pitchers next year while this ancient lineup that has no speed, no defense, no athleticism, and no ability to execute fundamentals or hit in the clutch gets trotted out there every game. Remember, we are on pace to score 200 less runs than last year. And we haven’t hit in the playoffs in years. The offense is just as big, if not bigger concern than the pitching.
If you listen to Cash’s interview on WFAN a couple of weeks ago, he kind of hinted at this. He used the term ‘trade market’ a lot. Lets hope he is proactive in this area.
Anyone know why IPK isn’t playing in the AFL?
Clearly, if they plan to sign 2 FA pitchers like most of the articles indicate, they will shop Hughes for a young hitter.
Where does Hughes fit the equation then? If you want Hughes in the rotation then why is the media hinting we will peruse 2 FA pitchers? You obviously want to sign 2 so you can have enough pitching to trade Hughes. Otherwise, it seems like a waste of resources to keep him in AAA for another year in favor of someone like Lowe.
“Lester’s problem was his cancer obviously, physically he had no problems. Hughes and Joba on the otherhand, have a ton of medical red flags. ”
???
Cancer. Not a physical problem? Not a medical red flag?
“WestCoastGuy
October 12th, 2008 at 6:35 pm
Anyone know why IPK isn’t playing in the AFL?”
he said he felt like he didn’t need to.
“mel
October 12th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Dream about Adrian Gonazalez, Left-eye Loney…”
you made me think of my baby. May she R.I.P.
Football is boring.
In baseball, you can’t run out the clock.
The pitching matchup really favors the Dodgers, but I’ll stick with the Phillies for the win.
Anyone else?
Mel –
Moyer could bounce back from his horrible start from the third game of the LCS. Unless the Dodgers do what the Brewers did, being patient. I will also choose the Phillies to win this one since I believe Moyer will bounce back.
vinny-b,
yeah, that makes sense. IPK knows what’s best; actually, “yeah, it’s October, season’s over, last year, I got married, this year it’s time to hit the beach and get away from it all, including the wife….wake me up in mid-Feb”!!!
The end of this Cardinals game is a mess.
Ed,
Manny has 10 HR off Moyer. Yikes!
Football is boring.
In baseball, you can’t run out the clock.
This is the best comment ever.
mel: never seen an NFL game dragged out, to this point. As bad as the NBA.
So what happens when this game bleeds into the start of the NLCS?
Ugh.
I hope the Cardinals come through. Not a Cowboys fan at all.
Wow this game is awful! They had the game won, but they had to ‘ice the kicker’ what a stupid move!
Wow, did anyone see what just happened in the Dallas-Arizona game? Tough break for the Cards.
Rebecca –
I believe it will either air on TBS or TNT.
Is this going to cut into the pre-game? That’s one good thing about OT.
Does it bother you guys when analysts use “defense” as a verb?
Cardinals: please don’t let Terrell Owens team win this game.
“Wow this game is awful! They had the game won, but they had to ‘ice the kicker’ what a stupid move!”
Hate that move. Hope they lose now.
I don’t mind TO’s antics. What I can’t stand is when he whines for touches.
so I’m guessing this would be a bad time to root for the Cowboys to win this game?
Did you notice IPK on the Cardinal sidelines…he’s a buddy of Leinart’s…two of a kind.
I like Romo. Too bad he’s on this team.
“WestCoastGuy
October 12th, 2008 at 7:42 pm
Did you notice IPK on the Cardinal sidelines…he’s a buddy of Leinart’s…two of a kind”
tell me, you’re kidding.
What a circus.
Mel –
I could understand your point. I can’t stand TO either and Pacman Jones too.
Who saw that coming?
Poor McBriar (another UH alum).
Was IPK really there? Wonder if he’s visiting his other buddy, Big Phil.
Ed,
How stupid is Pacman? The NFL gives him another chance and he still can’t stay out of trouble.
vinny-b,
IPK, Leinart and yours truly will party, party, party in Scottsdale tonight and then it’s Leinart’s hot tub with all the hotties!!!
Mel –
I seriously thought Pacman would seriously change, but he proved every doubters right. He’s like Mike Tyson off the field. lol
“WestCoastGuy
October 12th, 2008 at 7:47 pm
IPK, Leinart and yours truly will party, party, party in Scottsdale tonight and then it’s Leinart’s hot tub with all the hotties!!!”
lol. Still don’t know if you were playin.
: )
I guess Wade Phillips isn’t jumping up and down in glee right now
vinny,
If we put our heads together, we’ll realize that Leinart’s a backup now and probably doesn’t get sideline passes.
Wade Phillips
the only coach who makes me feel thankful for Eric Mangini
GUys like pac-man don’t change.
It’s a pity, because there are guys that do, and he ruins it for them
Why doesn’t Jerry Jones name himself coach?
Sea Net October 12th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Why doesn’t Jerry Jones name himself coach?
If the cowboys play like they did today again, he probably will fire Wade and name himself coach.
it won’t get any easier when they play the Giants. Wait till they get a hold of them.
Cowboys are overrated every year.
Nothing better thing than watching Jerry, Wade Phillips, Romo, and TO after a tough loss.
Today was one of the best days of football that I can remember. So many outstanding games that were decided in the final minute.
this is off topic but I just saw Derek Jeter (on PBS) talking about his Italian-American heritage. WHO KNEW?
Yes, great day for NFL.
“Today was one of the best days of football that I can remember. So many outstanding games that were decided in the final minute.”
Every week the Cowboys lose is a pretty good week to me.
after tonight, hopefully will add patriots name to the list
Manny Id like you to meet Joba. Take a 2 year with us you bum.
Derek’s mother is Italian?
OH jamie!! learn to pitch like Mike please!
Once again,someone forgot to tell the Phillies there was a game.
Dear Jaime Moyer,
Channel your inner Mike Mussina.
Love,
Most of us
Moyer has a reverse perfect game going. Go Jamie!!!
Jamie come on do it for your manager and Sean!!
Just made my way back from San Diego ( Torrey Pines ) for a weekend of golf…..I’m not certain if this is has come up in NYC, but the word is that The Padres want to send Peavy to the Bronx, but want Hughes as the centerpiece of the trade…Speculation is that the Yanks do not want to move Phil…..I personally hope he stays, he’s going to be real good…...By the way , for any golfers here, Torrey Pines is stunning beautiful but real hard course….
I wasn’t going to bother posting during the Dodgers game because it doesn’t have quite the “excitement” for me as seeing the Sux take it in the face. But I just had to come on to say that this isn’t even like watching a postseason game! From the opening music used by FOX, to watching the over-the-hill Mary Hart do a dramatic rendition of the starting lineup, to seeing the empty seats in Dodger Stadium. No wonder Manny likes playing there and Derek Lowe has shone there. Talk about lack of pressure! I would say that NL baseball in LA is almost a joke. It has all the glitz of Hollywood and seems to have about as much superficiality.
The Angels are tucked away in Anaheim. If you’ve ever been there it is far enough out of LA that you can sense more baseball “normalcy.” We’ve all watched the Angels enough to know that Anaheim takes its baseball seriously.
Pathetic.
Just my opinion.
Jennifer according to wikipedia his mother “Dorothy is of Irish/German descent” Thats why I am so confused. Not that it really matters.
Here’s the program: http://nsefilms.com/store/index.php?main_page=product_info&cPath=1_5&products_id=2
Aw Nomar ruined it…
Tom, I read Derek’s book and I could have been sure there was no mention of Italian. I do remember the Irish part though.
Moyer getting squeezed. These umps suck.
Thats strange that he would appear in an Italian American program.
1 more Jaime
Give Moyer the hook NOW!
Trisha, I too read Jeter’s book thats why I found it odd. Now if he were part Viking….
Looks more like Moyer is channeling his inner Josh Beckett!
Oh that was not good
the magic of joe torre
Wow Jamie, not the way to step on the Dodgers throat.
Did someone forget to inform him that Sean has to go to Hawaii for his grandmothers funeral, it is best to get the series over with so he has time to stay with family!!
Tom –
I just laughed out loud!!!!
Don’t forget our August holiday. 3rd Monday.
Looks like not many here pulling for the Dodja’s….They’re going to drill Moyer….Tricia, Dodger Stadium is full to the brim…It’s tucked in a Ravine, takes time to get there…By the way, those lineup segments are filmed at least a half hour before the broadcast…..You speak as though you’ve been to LA, Have You ??????
hopefully the fans won’t leave by the 3rd inning…...what a joke dodger fans are
“The magic of Joe Torre”
Well since anything goes in Hollywood I guess that’s where Joe channels his inner fairy. Seems he forgot the magic when he flew to Philly.
DeWitt is a gamer, a grinder who can do it in the clutch. Torre’s kind of guy since he reminds him of the Yankees of 96 – 01….Brosius, Paulie
Pat M, sure I have! On several occasions. Dodger Stadium is full except for the seats that are empty that are staring me right in the face with every camera angel of home plate…
In LA, it’s the “thing” to have season tix, not necessarily to go to the games though.
Oh Pat M, I wasn’t talking about an empty stadium with respect to watching Mary Hart. That had its own special horror. I can only take so much horror at one time!
Just put it on, I see lots of yellow.
Darnit, just missed it.
mary hart..gruesome
Some good news to report.
SAN DIEGO LEADING 10-0.
And ya know, Pats fans, we don’t to hear the old injury excuse there. You know the one Yankees fans are never allowed to use?
GO CHARGERS!
What the heck is with Manny’s ‘hair’?
what a story it would be if the dodgers go down 0-3, and come back to win it with derek lowe starting game 7 and manny doing w/e he does. Honestly, i’d rather that scenario happen IN BOSTON. Have Bostom fans see the air sucked out of the stadium after nomahhh hits a grand salami and Derek Lowe pitching a gem to seal the WS victory.
“mary hart..gruesome”
More than I realized! Eeesh.
Trisha – Are you really that bitter that Torre is doing so well in LA? Seriously?
This team that you’re calling a joke just finished beating up the Cubs (who were the best team in the NL this year). And are now up 5-0 after the first. Manny claims to love playing wherever he is. And Derek Lowe was great in Boston (do you remember ‘04?).
just curious, anybody here a regular poster on various yankee forums?
“In LA, it’s the “thing†to have season tix, not necessarily to go to the games though.”
Josh, I think people like her and others are so angry at the media overblowing Joe T’s success and Girardi’s “failure”.
Hey, Misery loves company.
Rather than see a former player in Mattingly and manager that won here, many feel the need to denigrate the man and his accomplishments in order to “balance” the unfair criticism that Girardi has faced.—
The people who bash Joe Torre will not stop for anything, nor will the Girardi bashers. The anti-X people will never just shutup. Thats the part of being a diehard fan. Irrationality plays little role.
I’m way to young to remember the days of the NY Giants or Dodgers, but did they leave town for the financial incentives in Cali?
Most unlike the Fenway fans behind homeplate…same faces every game, there till the end…like affixed to the seat. In fact, I was watching highlights of a 95 game and the same guys were there….no gray in the hair but same guys. the main guy is the one with the blue windbreaker to the immediate right of Tek…he wears a yellow slicker when the rains come.
Buster – I can understand that, but of all people to hate on, Joe Torre should be last on the list. That guy turned this team into a dynasty.
Josh – I consider any team that makes it into the postseason with 84 wins, well, probably in a lightweight division. In fact I consider the NL west a joke, period.
Derek Lowe was hardly “great” in Boston. I’m bigger on remembering the entire body of work rather than just a game here and there. If I were to choose to adulate certain games, I would have a poster of Shane Spencer adorning my bedroom walls. In 2004 Lowe’s ERA was over 5. Hardly great in my eyes.
On the other hand, I consider the Phils a legitimate baseball team.
And oh yeah, you should know better than to fall back on the old “best team in baseball” stuff. Do you remember Seattle’s dream season in 2001? Where did it get them? And you probably also realize that the Angels ended up with the best record in the MAJORS this year. Where are they?
It’s called the hot hand. Whoever has it ends up with the ring. I’m putting my money on the Rays or the Phils. I’m thinking you won’t mind.
Anyway I hope I’ve answered your questions.
Buster, it depends upon whom you listen to. O’Malley’s story was that he wanted the City to use its eminent domain rights to provide him with land in
Brooklyn for a new stadium with a retractible roof (ahead of his time) and was denied. the powers in place thought he was bluffing but obviously not…he took Stoneham with him.
Buster, I think you’ve really probably explained the syndrome perfectly. Only when Torre is drubbed out of this postseason will all of the cannonization end. After that I couldn’t care less what he does.
oh yes please liven this up with a brawl
harwood –
Josh – wherever Torre landed, his team and division would be criticized if they made the playoffs. If the dodgers have 84 wins, its b/c they suck and got lucky in a weak division. If they have 114 wins, its b/c they suck and won in a weak division.
And yes, Joe T is one of the last people to hate on. But as you have seen, a few even started bashing Don Mattingly b/c he a) defended Torre and b) swiped the Yankee org.
The only problem I have is that people have been blowing rainbows up Torre’s arse because he went to the WS 6/12 yrs and won 4. Now that people (media, fans) are not doing the same to Girardi, it bothers people. So they go down the road of ripping what Torre has done. Hell, I even heard someone say the whole dynasty should be credited to Buck Showalter instead of Torre.
Did you see the Newsday article? It seems they were pretty happy to see the Phils take a 2-0 lead. Other than Mike Francesa, Max Kellerman, and this blog, who else is ‘Rooting for Torre as a shot against Girardi/Yankees’?
I’ve looked around at the local papers and really didn’t see the overwhelming Torre lovefest that some say.
uh oh…. maybe a brawl in the works.
Who says the fireworks are only in the ALCS!
What have we here?
Manny not happy
Throw Manny out!
They should allow fighting in baseball like they do in hockey. That would be awesome.
And of course, we have a Larry Bowa sighting.
In 2000, the Yanks made it to October with 87 wins (Boston had 85, Toronto 83). The Mets had 94 wins. Yet, our guys won the WS. Does that make us a joke because we only had 84 wins? Did we not deserve to be playing? (And yes, there were teams with better records who did not make it to the postseason).
In October 2004, Lowe was 3-0 (in four starts) with a 1.86 ERA. I’m pretty sure he was playing under pressure considering Boston hadn’t won in 86 years.
Note: sorry it took so long to respond, I deleted my original comment by accident.
And if you’re arguing that only the hottest team wins the WS, then you’re saying that our Yanks may not have been the best team. They were simply the hottest come October.
People that claim it was Showalter that built the 90’s Yankees are full of crap. Numer one, he was the manager…not the GM….number two there were 13 players on the 1996 team that weren’t on the 1995 team. A turnover of more than 50% of the main 25 players.
The animus to the Dodgers did not begin this year but has its genesis in the abandonment of the City in 58-59. It has never been forgotten and never will. Old-time Brooklyn Dodger fans now wear Mets caps as they have supplanted the “deserters”. Torre has nothing to do with it.
I guess Moyer neededto learn how to pitch like Mike Mussina or something.
Strikes man!
Envious spite against a great former Yankee manager comes out? No need to take it seriously—you see certain handles, you spot the word ‘Torre’ in their message, you scroll on by.
Just makes the triage process here quicker and easier.
So i’d like to ask Joe where was this protection of Alex when he played for you?
marian duncan acting all tough…ohhh sure the phills are scared
and if i were some scrub on the phills bench, i would of went at manny
mariano
Meantime, did anyone else wonder there for a minute whether Manny was about to be accused of throwing another old man down? But Torre just kept on pushing him back towards the dugout…
By the way, Manny took his buzzing with a lot more class and professionalism than that little diva Victorino, who was posturing for the camera for at least five minutes after his…
I think LA has a better shot at winning the WS then the Phils. I really hope they launch a comeback here and take this series.
There were 15 guys holding back Manny they had no shot at him.
“In October 2004, Lowe was 3-0 (in four starts) with a 1.86 ERA. I’m pretty sure he was playing under pressure considering Boston hadn’t won in 86 years.”
Exactly. He also finished third in Cy Young voting one year.
Lowe has the lower career WHIP and ERA and that’s with plenty more AL experience than Burnett.
Everyone seems so gung ho about signing Burnett if C.C. signs elsewhere. And the question I ask is,why? What has he ever done except pitch well against us and prove he’s not a durable pitcher?
rconn23
October 12th, 2008 at 9:41 pm
“In October 2004, Lowe was 3-0 (in four starts) with a 1.86 ERA. I’m pretty sure he was playing under pressure considering Boston hadn’t won in 86 years.â€
Exactly. He also finished third in Cy Young voting one year.
Lowe has the lower career WHIP and ERA and that’s with plenty more AL experience than Burnett.
Everyone seems so gung ho about signing Burnett if C.C. signs elsewhere. And the question I ask is,why? What has he ever done except pitch well against us and prove he’s not a durable pitcher?
__
How old was Lowe then and how many years ago was he effective for two years in the AL East?
IDK why but this is exactly what the Phillies need. I said it would be over in 5 now the Phillies got the distraction they need to play loose.
“How old was Lowe then and how many years ago was he effective for two years in the AL East?”
He pitched well for four years in the AL East. He pitched well as a starter and as a closer. One guy has postseason experience – where he has pitched well, by the way, one guy has none. One guy is very durable, the other is not.
A.J. Burnett, with no postseason experience, a questionable reputation and injury history will likely take a 5-year $80 million deal. Lowe will take fewer years, fewer dollars and likely give a better performance. This isn’t rocket science.
Lowe—IP-ERA-ERA+
2005 222 3.61 114
2006 218 3.63 124
2007 199 3.88 118
2008 211 3.24 136
Burnett—IP-ERA-ERA+
2005 209.0 3.44 115
2006 135.7 3.98 115
2007 165.7 3.75 119
2008 221.3 4.07 106
Basically, Lown has a edge on ERA+ (league neutralized) and a good edge on IP, but he is 6 years older. They seem comparable.. weighing Derek’s age against AJ’s injury prone-ness.
Basically, LowE….
AJ’S power arm still tilts the scales…..
they… did the wave..
sigh
Sorry, but, I’ll take Burnett every time. Lowe isn’t worth 3 years and 13-15 mil a year. Let him go back to Boston or to Toronto.
I dont want either one of them. They are both dead weight.
Old Yanks Fan –
you do know Lowe’s first full season in the rotation was in 2002, right? Anything before that, he was in the bullpen. 2002 was his fluke year. His ERA doubled in 2003, and doubled in 2004.
I’m agreeing with GB7, I would prefer Burnett than Lowe.
And you’re certainly entitled to your opinion. But while people are wowed by Burnett’s power stuff, it hasn’t produced the expected results. Lowe is no ace, but he is a very good No.3 starter, which is something the Yankees need also.
Burnett has played for Florida, where no one cares about baseball and Toronto, where media coverage is few and far between. Wonder how he would handle New York. That’s on top of all of the other questions about him.
Burnett pites to a 2.88 ERA in NY against the Yanks, 3.78 at Shea and a 0.40 ERA in Boston. High powered enough for you?
I wonder how the fearful foursome of Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Blanton will fair against the S*x.
pitches
rconn23 –
I’m not even saying Burnett is ace.
No one care about baseball? that’s where you wrong. I lived in Florida for 2 years during 1999-2001, when I was just starting in high school. I played junior varisty baseball, every students (especially the parents) treated the game like it was a real major league team. The Daytona Cubs (Cubs minor league) stadium was always a pack house.
So how come no one goes to the Marlins or Rays game? One is in Miami, and one’s in Tampa. It’s like 4/5 hour drive going there. I was at the Marlin’s game back in July and couldn’t believe how pack it was while on tv, no one is ever there.
so don’t ever said, no one cares about baseball in Florida to me.
Ed… Your post is both misleading and inaccurate (doubled and doubled again) In 2003 and 2004, his ERA/ERA+ was 4.47/104 and 5.42/90. These are also his worst 2 years of his career (as opposed to typical years). For FOUR years in a row, Derek has thrown 200 IP with an avg. ERA around 3.6.
By the way, in those same 2 years (03/04), AJ Posted ERA+s of: 89/112 with an IP of 23/120!
So based on ERA+ and IP, Derek has the edge over both the last 4 years and the last 6 years.
Yes, AJ has better stuff. He is higher risk and higher reward. If we get 2 FAs, maybe we can afford to take a chance with AJ. If we get only 1, AJ might be a bad choice.
ER,
Torre and the Dodgers will pull it out. Manny, Torre, Donnie Dodger going back to Fenway to take on the defending world champs… just like FOX wants
Derek Lowe is a nice fall back option, but let’s not make the mistake that he’s on par with AJ Burnett….Burnett can just dominate a lineup as well as anyone pitching today…..He needs to be placed in the spotlight I believe….Yankee Stadium would be that spotlight…
“Derek Lowe is a nice fall back option, but let’s not make the mistake that he’s on par with AJ Burnett”
Again, Lowe has a better career ERA and WHIP than Burnett. Burnett has better stuff, doesn’t mean he’s been the better pitcher. And Lowe will also be a lot cheaper.
“I wonder how the fearful foursome of Hamels, Myers, Moyer, and Blanton will fair against the S*x.
The Sox will lose in seven games when Jas*n B*y makes three errors and goes 0-5 with 5 strikeouts.
Can AJ be an Ãœbermensch?
For FOUR years in a row, Derek has thrown 200 IP with an avg. ERA around 3.6.
NO he hasn’t thrown 200+ innings for four years in a row. He has thrown 200+ innings for 2 years, then 182 innings in his third full season in the rotation. Lowe struggled through much of the 2003 season, but boosted by the strength of Boston’s thunderous offense, posted a 17-7 record despite a 4.47 ERA. In another words, without the offense, he would have a losing record.
Like I said, 2002 was just first full season in the rotation and it was just his fluke year. The AL East was starting to get better in 2003.
rconn23,,,,Your points are very valid….I believe Lowe is the # 3 option for the Yankees…..I’ve watched him throw for the past few seasons here in LA, he’s still good…....We need to get Kemp for CF…...He’s only going to get so much better…..
If you think that Lowe will get less than 15 mil a year, you’re wrong. He’s getting 12 mil, now.
Comparing Burnett and Lowe’s statistics can be very misleading, even when using stats like ERA+ which in theory “adjust” for differences in league and ball park.
The reason why this is a problem is because its very difficult to compare pitchers competing in the AL East and NL West, even with stats that adjust for “league.”
The reason why? The unbalanced schedule. That’s the issue.
It’s simply not enough to adjust for differences between the “AL” and the “NL” when comparing pitchers from those respective divisions. The NL West is just a pitiful offensive division from top to bottom. Just awful. Because of the unbalanced schedule Lowe throws a ton of games against the D’Backs, Giants, etc.
Burnett on the other hand not only pitches in the AL East, but pitches for a team that is not the yankees or boston. Yankee pitchers get a break with regards to ERA+ because they never face the yankee’s offense (same for the boston pitchers). Toronto, Tampa and Baltimore pitchers get the worst of it.
Burnett’s year was very impressive this past season – more than his stats let on.
I’d personally hope to sign CC and probably pass on both. Burnett will cost at least 5yrs/ 80M. Lowe will be expensive as well.
But outside of that it’s tough to make an argument of Lowe over Burnett based on stats unless a more complex analysis is done that accounts for their respective competition better.
OMG if I’m that 12 year old I amso nervous right now…
CB: My only concern with Burnett is the injury history. It’s notsomething that can beignored.
BTW, I apologize for the spacing errors on my posts, I’mworking with a busted keyboard till I get my mac back.
“We need to get Kemp for CF……He’s only going to get so much better…..”
Pat M,
Like you I like Kemp a lot. But just as an aside…
If he were playing for the yanks and struck out facing Jamie Moyer like the did tonight with men on base yankee fans would be screaming bloody murder.
Supremely talented. But many, many yankee fans will wind up hating him. Just not enough patience in NY, IMO.
Clearly, Burnett and Lowe are secondary options if we don’t sign CC.
Rebecca what happened?
Kemp and Kuo for Hughes?
Sherman’s article was spot on—- sign 2 FA pitchers then shop some of our young pitchers for legit position help.
jennifer: I tripped over the battery cord and my mac laptop fell on the wrong side and busted the hard drive.
So I’m using a 3-year-old Sony Vaio with a busted keyboard until I get my mac back.
I also have a craptastic internet connection, so I’m afraid to turn the computer off in case I lose the connection.
CC
Wang
Moose
Pettite
Joba
Forget Burnett or Lowe. Sign Cliff Lee next off season
We need to get Kemp for CF……He’s only going to get so much better…..
If FOX hadn’t shown you that clip on his arm you wouldn’t want him, clubhouse cancer, lazy, doesn’t have good range in CF, put him in RF he reminds you of Canseco, how many CFers have his arm, lets see. Victorino, Milledge, Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez…I can go on and on.
rebecca,
I agree on burnett. The probability of him staying healthy isn’t very high. Joba had shoulder tendinitis this year and people were ready to relegate him to the pen for life.
AJ has blown out his elbow and had shoulder problems, including in 2007.
If the yanks don’t sign CC they are in a real bind.
I’m still hoping they can sign CC and both Pettite and Mussina return.
Kemp’s 150+ strikeouts and under 50 walks as a Yankee would only have one benefit. It would take the fan and media heat off of Rodriguez. The only way I’d want him would be as long as it didn’t cost Cano or Chamberlain. My guess is that a Hughes/Betances, Jackson and Robertson/Bruney relief pitcher would be the type of package it would take.
Oh wow that stinks, did you take it back to Apple yet?
Trade Hughes for James Loney, not Kemp.
If Mussina comes back, that solves a lot of problems. Then we don’t need to sign two FA pitchers. We could have CC, Wang, Joba, Moose, Andy. We could then explore trading Hughes for a young position player.
Trade Hughes for James Loney, not Kemp.
In a heartbeat
Why people are so eager to trade Cano? Every forum I go to, they said trading Cano for this and this. :-\
With Hughes or Chamberlain in the rotation, and especially with with Pettitte and Mussina, a 6th starter will definately be needed to keep Hughes/Chmberlain’s innings under control and also to take some of Pettitte and Mussina’s starts to keep them fresh. I’m not ready to give thoseinnings to Cokend Aceves, just yet. That’s what happened this year.
Brandon, I watched this kid since he came up with the team….As for that one hop throw to third from the cf warning track I’ve seen before….He’s a work in process, and he’s ceiling is extremely high…..He’s a raw talent indeed…...CB, your insights are always a plus to the forum….
The Dodgers are not going to trade either Kemp or Loney. They, together with Martin and Eithier, constitute the position nucleus of the future. There are only two current Dodgers who may be wearing pinstipes in 08, Derek and Manny, that’s it…unless of course, Cashman pulls another “Betamit” and develops a liking for another low potential journeyman.
Ed, because he didn’t hit .325 this year. If he hits .340 next year, you won’t find a poster, fan or media genius that will admit to wanting him unloaded.
*pinstripes*
I’d trade Hughes before I ever think about trading Cano.
Us trading Cano is like the Texas Rangers trading a stud pitcher. We have nothing in the farm position wise, it makes no sense to trade our budding young 2B, the only regular under 30.
Gb 7 –
Every rookie has a “sophomore slump season”. However, Cano chose to have a slump year in his junior year. If Cano does regain his 2006 form and if Cano was traded, those who wanted Cano traded will be sorry and disappear.
Even the media is speculating, erroneously I might add, about a potential trade of Cano. It will not happen especially in light of his energizing performance following Girardi’s “dressing down”.
I don’t see the Dodgers trading Kemp this off season, especially if they sign Manny. Kemp is inexpensive and can still play CF.
How do you replace him in CF? Very difficult position to fill.
That said – he should never have been called up to the majors when he was. They rushed him very badly.
But what makes Kemp being rushed difficult to spot is that unlike most players who get rushed (e.g. Cameron Maybin last season…) Kemp was talented enough and good enough to still play well.
He’s in a very strange spot. Can’t recall too many players that raw good enough to stick in the majors but still so unrefined in his game. Very in between. In many ways he strikes me as more raw than a player like Justin Upton. And on top of that their asking him to play out of position.
Kemp is a much more talented player than Austin Jackson. There’s really no comparison between the two. Kemp gets a bit of a raw deal from his detractors, IMO.
I don’t think they’ll trade Cano or Hughes, either.
WestCoastGuy
October 12th, 2008 at 11:06 pm
Even the media is speculating, erroneously I might add, about a potential trade of Cano. It will not happen especially in light of his energizing performance following Girardi’s “dressing downâ€.
_
If Long had done his job and corrected Cano’s batting flaw in May/June when he first spotted it, Cano’s problems would have never come up. That’s when Long first spotted the flaw, but, he said that he didn’t want to make corrections on a career .314 hitter. That’s his job….make corrections.
If one wants to speculate about a trade to fill the centerfield gap, ocnsider David DeJesus; he will do a credible job both offensively and defensively.
GB7,
Point well taken.
CB, I don’t think that Kemp will be in center field that long. He’s getting huge. He’s already close to 240 punds, at 6’2”. He’s closing in on Carlos Lee, Andruw Jones size.
CB,
Pat M mentioned the word in SoCal was that the Padres have asked for Hughes to headline a package for Hughes.
Do you think a lot of teams are doing this? Taking the initiative to call and ask for Hughes? Do you see any scenario where Cashman is tempted to give it heavy consideration?
GB 7 –
what’s your intake on Indian’s RFer Shin-Soo Choo?
punds = new weight measure. 3.4 ounces more than a pound.
“If Long had done his job and corrected Cano’s batting flaw in May/June when he first spotted it, Cano’s problems would have never come up.”
Just a feeling, but I think Long was biting the bullet when he made that statement and trying to take the blame on himself.
Essentially, he was taking some of the heat off Cano for Cano’s poor season.
If Long spotted a problem in may I don’t think Cano would even have listened to Long’s advice at that time.
Just a hunch, but I think Cano was only willing to listen when the cumulative disaster of his season hit September. Don’t think he would have made major adjustments early in the season, regardless of what Long would have advised. Perhaps from Bowa but not from Long.
“Do you think a lot of teams are doing this? Taking the initiative to call and ask for Hughes? Do you see any scenario where Cashman is tempted to give it heavy consideration?”
I think one team after another after another is going to call Cash and ask for Hughes.
He will be one of the most asked for young players in all of baseball.
If the padres want to move Peavey Hughes is exactly the kind of guy they will hope to get.
I don’t think the Yankees will trade Hughes. Just a feeling. I don’t see it unless multiple off season plans fall apart.
If they get one of CC/ Lowe/ AJ I don’t think they’ll entertain offers for Hughes.
Ed, he’s difficult to figure. Strikes out way too much and not crazy about his defense. Whether he corrects this or not, I don’t know. Depends on whethe he gets the playing time to work through it. I like Ben Francisco better.
Wow, Broxton just threw 3 ninety mile an hour sliders and there was no chance of hitting them. This kid has a golden arm on him.
Oh and Mel- “the Padres have asked for Hughes to headline a package for Hughes.” Would we be getting Hughes or Hughes in that deal? Because I hear Hughes is pretty good. : )
The Padres have a history of trading high end players approaching their high dollar contract years. Peavy is on the block, but it would (and should) take a package that includes Hughes. It might make sense since Hughes will become available for “repurchase” at or around the time Peavy’s career turns the downward slope; he would then be in his prime.
whethe = whether
If it’s true that the Yankees want to hold their payroll to about 180 million next year, and that was “rumored/reported” before the market meltdown last week, that will leave them with around 60 million to sign free agents, deal with raises and arbitration, and decide if they are picking up the club option for Marte of 6 million.
Personally, I think the only two free agents that should be offered arbitration are Abreu and Mussina. Pettitte can wait until we see what 2 free agent starters, if any, we are able to sign.
This recent market downturn, tight credit, inability to get disability insurance will affect length and monies for many of these free agents, as I expect many will be looking at minor league deals. Also the sale of Yankee skyboxes, to companies in the red might not take place as planned.
So Philly will take game 4 and 5.
did he really just give an interview about the hit pitch he got?
GB 7 –
since he was called up at the end of May for the rest of the season and played everyday, his OBP was .397. He only struck out 78 times.
Hey CB since you’re around what are your thoughts on Peavy? Alot of folks wondering if Peavy’s stuff would translate over to the AL East. I personally think top 10 type pitchers are dominant enough to cross over and its the mid-level fringe guys that go from bad to worse. And to the people who think not trading for Santana means don’t trade for Peavy it’s a whole different thing. Santana was trending downward and needed a record contract, those things don’t apply in Jacob’s case.
There is such a thing as overly babying the kids. The whole transition bullcrap from reliever to starter and back again is not only seeming more and more ridiculous to me, I’m really starting to believe that the difference in recovery time is at least in part a cause of Joba’s tendinitis this season. Lester has made one big league relief appearance during the regular season thus far in his career. The Yanks wanted Joba in the rotation because they wanted his arm to help the big club, I understand that, but injuries happen. I’m not saying to run Joba out there 33 starts next season, but he could get close to there if the Yanks would let him build up some innings in the AFL. There are plenty of ways to manipulate this, but he has the stuff and the mentality needed to be a good starter. At the lower levels, these guys have pitched as many innings, probably more than what they’d have in 30 or so starts. Obviously the main difference being the quality of competition and level of workload in each start. But the game essentially doesn’t change: make your pitches, throw your stuff, come out after 100-120 or so pitches (assuming you did well enough to stay in), and recover and go through your routine for the next 5 days. As a reliever, it’s a whole different story, and something Joba never or at least hardly had to deal with before being called up. It’s a whole different animal, and I’d bet the difference put him on the shelf. I’ve said this before, but it’s not just the difference in workload, the difference in recovery time is just as important. Either make him a starter or a reliever and then keep him there (read: make him a starter and give him the chance to prove me and the rest of you who agree with me wrong).
As for Hughes, I think they are handling him fine physically, though they did guarantee him a spot on the big league rotation way too early in his career, especially considering they were willing to give him the spot before opening day. IPK? I don’t really know what to make of him, but he does seem to need an attitude adjustment.
You may be correct, CB, but, when you look at the way his front foot drifted back almost 18 inches in the tart of his stance compared to last year, it’s not difficult to see why he was chasing bad pitches. The fact that he could foul most of them is amazing, but, it did cost him dearly. Cano is of that breed of player that can’t seperate taking bad at bats out to the field and vice versa.
“I don’t think that Kemp will be in center field that long. He’s getting huge.”
He’s shouldn’t be a centerfielder now. What the dodgers are doing with him is just strange.
He’s a right fielder. But the Coletti is clueless, signs Jones who bombs and the dodgers move Kemp to CF out of necessity.
It’s very, very difficult to ask a young player who is very raw to take one for the team and play out of position.
Kemp played 17 innings of CF in 2007. 2006 he only played 189. This year (when he’s only larger…) 825 innings in CF.
It’s just not fair to him. It only retards his progress and cannot be helping him at the plate.
It’s an enormous challenge to play CF in Chavez Ravine. A player as raw as Kemp is at the plate – the last thing you want to do is to place additional stress on him on the defensive side.
I’m honestly very surprised that Kemp plays as well as he does. He should have been in the minors in 2006 and 2007.
tart = start
Kevin Towers and Cashman are frequent trading partners. They made 9 trades since 1998, most than any other GMs. If Cashman could land A-Gon or Peavy without Hughes or any other untouchables, I will definitely call Cashman a freaking genius.
Brandon – does it bother you that the dodgers haven’t been humiliated and wont be swept?
ed- I’m sure Towers is a dummy and would take a bunch of low-ceiling prospects for either Peavy or Gonzales. I doub’t Hughes plus IPK is enough to get Peavy.
CB,
Thanks. Peavy would be the only player worth considering. But if they didn’t do it for Santana, why do it for Peavy? They kept Hughes for philosophical reasons (“keep the inventory”) So I can’t see them doing it unless he totally falls off the table, which I doubt.
Rob,
I only do that trade if we get the Healthy Hughes back.
jennifer: I took it to apple yesterday.
CB, wasn’t aware of Kemp’s true position, because I’ve mostly seen him in center and a little right field this year and Right field last year. I just assumd tha center was his normal position.
I doubt that the inclusion of Hughes in a package for Peavy would be an impediment to the transaction. In a quiet moment Cashman would probably acknowledge that he is not going to make the same mistake two years in a row.
Brandon – does it bother you that the dodgers haven’t been humiliated and wont be swept?
No I’m just calling it like I see it. The Phillies will play you loose in the next game. I love playoff baseball there’s no bitterness here atleast not the way you think. BTW big mistake waking them up tonight they probably were feeling pressured as soon as that ball was sent to Victorino’s head that whole team is going to be awake for game 4 and 5 in LA.
Now if some of the sleptics excuse me I’m going to watch one of this generations best Wes Craven movies “Scream” on TNT
oops skeptics *
Ed, with regard to Choo, 77 strikeouts in 315 at bats is a lot, but it’s his defense that bothers me more.
Brandon,
Some people feel that Yankee fans are cheering for the Dodgers to lose because they want Torre to fail.
Some of us just like the Phillies.
“since you’re around what are your thoughts on Peavy? Alot of folks wondering if Peavy’s stuff would translate over to the AL East.”
The thing I like best about Peavy is his contract. He’s signed to an absolutely fantastic deal. In terms of dollars, that extension he signed is far below market value. To me it’s that contract that is his biggest plus.
In terms of performance, I like Peavy but he does concern me. His home and road splits are fairly dramatic. In that regard he reminds me a bit of the pitching version of Matt Holliday (though not nearly as extreme).
I think Peavy would be a very good pitcher in the AL East but I’m not convinced he would be an elite level pitcher. I’m not confident that he would be a true ace.
As an aside – Peavy’s not nearly as good as people tend to think he is. When you compare him to Santana, CC, Halladay, Webb, etc. he’s nowhere close to those pitchers in terms of performance.
Peavy has had one truly great year in his career – 2007. He hasn’t put up the year in and out dominance that a guy like Brandon Webb has.
He’s very good. Not sure he’s a top 10 starter but I like him less than most people do.
Brandon, if you take away 2 innings in Philly, the Dodgers are up 3-0….It’s apparent that your seniments are not with LA, and I suspect that’s more about Torre than it’s about you being a Phillies fan…....As for Kemp, CB has brought to light the Kemp situation in centerfield….But Jones nor Juan Pierre are a better option….Clearly this kid will be a force to be reckon with….That being said, he’s already a force to deal with…...BS on all that clubhouse cancer stuff…...
Brandon (TEIX IS NOT WORTH IT, GET CC !)...”Don’t trade Robi !”
October 12th, 2008 at 11:39 pm
oops skeptics *
_
Sleptics is a better description. I sleep through the movies. Septics might be even better.
Ed… Lowe has pitched 200 IP the LAST FOUR YEARS (although I’m counting 199.3), I am talking about the last 4 years. Why are you talking about 1 year SIX YEARS AGO?
Again, AJ is a better Pitcher, but Lowe ain’t chopped liver. For the Yanks (if they are both available) it depends on how import IP is to them, and contract cost/length.
mel,
Off topic… but your Lakers should really win a championship this year – not excuses.
And it wouldn’t surprise me if Kobe isn’t the most valuable player on the team this year (he’ll be the “best” player but not necessarily the most important).
I just can’t see anyway Bynum doesn’t command consistent double teams every time he t