Searching for reality
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Nov 06, 2008 
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
Once 30 general managers gather in the same hotel, there are sure to be trade talks. How could there not be?
Here is how one Yankees official described it: “You start talking and it sounds great. But when you get up the next day and talk about about, you realize why it doesn’t make sense. But it gives you something to consider for a day or two.”
For every trade that does happen, 50 die a quiet death. Probably more.
Take the idea of trading Phil Hughes, Austin Jackson and another prospect to San Diego for Jake Peavy. Plug Peavy into the rotation and the 2009 team is improved, no doubt about it. But Peavy is a NL West pitcher who will require a contract extension of some sort to waive his no-trade clause to come to New York. Jackson is the only legit position-player prospect the Yankees have above A ball.
Or the idea of obtaining Mike Cameron from the Brewers for Melky Cabrera, Wilson Betemit and a prospect. I have to assume that prospect is a clone of Whitey Ford built from DNA harvested on Old Timers’ Day. Otherwise what part of that trade makes any sense for the Brewers?
Cabrera was a player the Yankees demoted in August then didn’t use in September. Betemit is a one-dimensional, one-sided switch-hitter who is arbitration eligible. How could the Brewers trade their starting CF, a fairly productive (25 homers, 70 RBI) and popular player, for two low-ceiling spare parts and a prospect? Betemit is 27 and has had 1,098 major league ABs. He is what he is and that’s a part-time .260 hitter with a .325 OBP and occasional power.
If the Yankees can make that trade, Cashman should win 2009 Executive of the Year right now. I personally don’t think they should trade for Cameron. But it’s hard to believe Cabrera and Betemit have that much value.
The GM Meetings finish up this afternoon. But these sort of rumblings will last into the winter. I do think the Yankees will eventually make a trade and will part with some of their prospects. But what we’ve heard so far doesn’t make a whole lot of sense.
Why do these people meet in early November? Stoking the fires? Networking?
It’s 2008 guys; use Facebook.
Good point Pete..
Yet, these deals always work out in the video game, MLB the Show! That’s just bizzare.
facebook? No, myspace !
lol.
Just like the pretty girl at the club who’s not so pretty when the lights go on. And sometimes she’s not even a girl.
I agree, Pete. People here dump on Betemit all the time, yet they think he can be pawned off?
Robbie’s going nowhere. They have to give him at least one more year to step up. Melky on the other hand.. I think his days are numbered.
Jake Peavy can kiss my ass. Let him stay in the national league.
Mel you can dump off any Yankee trash for other teams treasures.
Wilson Betemit can be included in any package to get you a number of players. Don’t be so naive!
Please keep Peavy away. That will be a move people regret for a long time.
you are right on the money with this post, Peter. neither of those trades make an iota of sense. in fact, most of the speculation I read about is simply silly. the only questiton I have is, from where does this stuff come? writers who conjure up ridiculous trade ideas because they don’t have anything else to do? some mid-level player development type who is trying to float a trial balloon? anyway, it’s nuts.
Ray,
LOL. But people want to send Betemit or Igawa in packages that don’t include a Hughes, Cano, Jackson, or Melancon.
Of course I know there’s a market for players. I mean guys like Sal Fasano and Mike Timlin were employed.
Agreed, Melky and Betemit aren’t much, but Cameron isn’t exactly a high ceiling player either. I would rather take my chances with Gardner to start and the development of Ajax for possibly August/Sept. or next year.
ESPN is reporting that the Yanks would like Pettitte back, but only on a 1 year deal at a pay cut from 16M. Maybe this is old news, but I just saw it.
mel,
Have sound like youv recently watched the crying game. Scary.
From the previous post.
Any chance they sign Nick Johnson as a bench player?
I asked this earlier in the week. Who would be more successful in the a.l.? Sheets or Peavy(assuming Sheets would stay healthy). If its even a question. Why not go after sheets and save the players you were about to trade for some other need? I still think we could sign Penny for an incentive laden deal. Also dont like to get Peavy if he has publicly stated doesnt want to come to ny.
Mike Cameron 2008: .243 .331 .477
Wilson Betemit Career: .260 .325 .437
Also consider that Cameron will be 36 and on the downside of his career and Betemit would be 28 and just entering his prime.
Coyote Ugly trades.
I certainly understand the need for CC as a front of the rotation arm….But if it comes down to pick only one either Texeria or CC, I’m want Texeria…..Tough call indeed, but just the thought of having a Gold Glove SW hitting 35 HR / 100 rbi /.300 hitting 28 year old is just too tempting to pass on…..
Until moves are made unfounded, mendacious, and illogical trade rumors are all we have!
What do you want us to do here Pete, rehash the old Hughes, Arod, or Joe v Joe tripe?
“Mike Cameron 2008: .243 .331 .477
Wilson Betemit Career: .260 .325 .437″
But Betemit can’t play CF.
“Just like the pretty girl at the club who’s not so pretty when the lights go on. And sometimes she’s not even a girl.”
Mel, are you stalking me?
i got to play paparazzi this past weekend:
http://tinyurl.com/5g8vv8
“Betemit would be 28 and just entering his prime.”
Nice dude. Always leave ‘em laughing.
“Mike Cameron 2008: .243 .331 .477
Wilson Betemit Career: .260 .325 .437″
which is why you watch players, instead of relying on statistics.
but, Brett Gardner can!
*Don’t forget…Joe Girardi joins Eddie C and me on the FAN this Saturday. We’re on live from 10am to 1pm at Best Buy, 23rd Street and 6th Avenue.
From Sweeneys blog.
heyman has an interesting article at the yankees inclined to get hudson for 2B and cano moved to 1B.
they should try cano in CF with tex 1B, hudson 2B :p
“But Betemit can’t play CF.”
Or any infield position. We have enough dh’s on the team.
Trade #1: Damon for Swisher
Trade #2: Cano, Ian Kennedy, mid-tier bullpen for Holliday
Acquisition #1: Orlando Hudson
Acquisition #2: Sabathia
Acquisition #3: Lowe
Wilson can’t dh. I can’t wait till that bum is gone.
Cano in CF ? Get off the meds.
The Cameron trade won’t happen because Cabrera and Betemit hold little or no value.
However, Cameron is a 36 year old centerfielder who hit .243 with a .331 OBP this past season. Willie Mays, he isn’t.
At this point in his career, I don’t see how anyone can say with assurance that he’d be better defensively than than any of the other options for centerfield.
Sure, he’s good for 20 home runs or so, but it’a always a risk putting a player that old in such a premium defensive position. Could be diminishing returns.
Hughes needs to be traded especially if he finishes strong in Hawaii. We cannot trade Cano that would be a Kazmir level bad trade. Cano will be a career .300+ hitter he has natural talent that most hitters don’t have if he could just learn to be patient he could hit .400. Hughes is what we have all seen a mid-rotation guy low 90′s fastball, decent curve and virtually no other pitches. He would be a 2 in the NL but asking him to dominate AL East line-ups with the stuff he has is wishful thinking. I’m not saying trade him for a bag of balls and a player to be named later but we need to see if any teams will offer a good player back and try to bank on his upside which he still has plenty of.
Trade #1: Damon for Swisher
Actually like this a little. Would think Jeter would have to lead off in this scenario, but Swisher can play 1st and seems to fit into the “make the pitchers” work philosophy.
Trade #2: Cano, Ian Kennedy, mid-tier bullpen for Holliday
Not enough.
“Trade #1: Damon for Swisher”
Um, no.
I think some of these trade talks are just meant to confuse others as to what the GM really wants. Its noise that is mean to muddy the waters and have others wondering what directions the club is really looking to go.
Some of it may be in ernest, some of it to guage interest, some just playing fantasy baseball themselves.
I really like this one: http://www.nydailynews.com/blo.....ks2009.pdf
“Hughes is what we have all seen a mid-rotation guy low 90’s fastball, decent curve and virtually no other pitches. He would be a 2 in the NL but asking him to dominate AL East line-ups with the stuff he has is wishful thinking.”
Does he have to dominate AL East lineups to be successful? Wang has a career ERA of 4.40 against AL East competition and seems to be managing reasonably well here. You don’t think Hughes can’t do that?
With $80,000,000 or so coming off the books the Payroll stands at about $130,000,000 or so..
Moves to make:
Trades:
Hideki Matsui to the Mariners for pitching prospect Ryan Rowland-Smith (subtract $13,000,000) $117,000,000
Johnny Damon to the White Sox for a decent position prospect (subtract $13,000,000) $104,000,000
Robinson Cano, Ryan Rowland-Smith and prospect to Colorado Rockies for Matt Holliday (add around $6,000,000) $110,000,000
Melky Cabrera, Wilson Betemit and a pitching prospect to the Brewers for Mike Cameron (add $8,500,000) $118,000,000
Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and any prospect not named (Austin Jackson) to the Padres for Jake Peavy
(extend contract, new contract $108,000,000 over 6 years $18,000,000 a year) $136,000,000
Signings:
Sign Sabathia 7 years $161,000,000 so $23,000,000 a year (159,000,000)
Sign Teixeira 8 years $160,000,000 That’s $20,000,000 a year (179,000,000)
Sign Manny Ramirez 4 Years $100,000,000 so $25,000,000 a year (204,000,000)
Sign Orlando Hudson 4 years $36,000,000 that’s $9,000,000 a year (213,000,000)
Resign Andy Pettite for 1 year $12,000,000 or Resign Mike Mussina for 2 years $26,000,000 with option for 3rd year, $13,000,000 a year
(Preference is Mussina, Prediction is Pettite. But let’s go with Preference) $226,000,000
Resign Damaso Marte 3 years $15,000,000 so $5,000,000
Payroll: $232,000,000
Far Fetched, of course.. However with the Yankees opening up a new stadium they can undoubtedly afford this. Believe it or not this number is only slightly higher than the payroll last year. So for fun let’s go over the Roster of this dream team.
Lineup:
SS Jeter (OBP only slightly lower than Damon’s last year)
LF Holliday
1B Teixeira
3B Arod
DH Manny
RF Nady
C Posada
CF Cameron
2B Hudson
Rotation:
Sabathia
Peavy
Wang
Chamberlain
Mussina or (Pettite)
Bullpen:
CP Rivera
SU Marte
SU Veras
MR Ramirez
MR Coke
MR ?
LR Rasner
Bench:
C Molina
OF Gardiner
IF ?
UTIL ?
Pretty Tough To Beat
* can’t should be CAN
Always doges the double negative.
Iv’e always loved these trades that “fans” post. If we give them 4 players that we don’t want we can get a star back. You have to give perceived value to get perceived value.
And remind me never to be Mel’s wingman.
“Cano will be a career .300+ hitter he has natural talent that most hitters don’t have if he could just learn to be patient he could hit .400″
and if i had a serve, i would be playing on the ATP Tour.
j/k, AL
“Payroll: $232,000,000″
Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha
Pat Kelly:
Yanks have the money for all that. Your problem is the presumption of stupidity you seem to be applying to several MLB general managers.
“Hughes needs to be traded especially if he finishes strong in Hawaii.”
2 things
1. Why does Hughes NEED to be traded?
2. Hughes is NOT pitching in Hawaii.
ray(lower case)is that you?
I would be all for Manny if we trade Matsui and have the dh spot open. Not more than 3 years though.
““Hughes needs to be traded especially if he finishes strong in Hawaii.â€
2 things
1. Why does Hughes NEED to be traded?
2. Hughes is NOT pitching in Hawaii.”
My bad I mean’t AFL. He NEEDS to be traded because he will not benefit the 09 team in any way because his IP limit is too low to serve as a full time starter and if we can get someone who can actually help the big club next year then that would be far more beneficial than simply holding onto the golden boy.
Why can’t we just trade Matsui and hold onto Rowland-Smith he looked good out of the pen against us this year.
Love your blog but disagree with your Cameron point. The guy makes $10M – the Brewers would love to lose that contract
Even if the Yankees were to give up the equivalent of driftwood for Cameron, the deal only makes sense in one respect. He is a new buddy of CC and that “could” be an inducement. I don’t know if anyone has noticed but his defensive skills have slipped considerably. He no longer goes back on a ball with the consistency of the past; nor does he hit the gap with the precise angle that he did in his younger days. His hands at times reminded me of Johnny Damon”s. His BA is in the same area (if not less) as Melky; the only positive as to the actual playing field is that his homerun production hovers around 25. Is this worth 10 mill a year? But what the h***, the Yankees, based on what have put in the field, really couldn’t give a twit about defense.
“He NEEDS to be traded because he will not benefit the 09 team in any way because his IP limit is too low to serve as a full time starter and if we can get someone who can actually help the big club next year then that would be far more beneficial than simply holding onto the golden boy.”
So then why not trade everyone in the minors who isn’t going to help the big league club in ’09?
Your logic for why he NEEDS to be traded is illogical.
““He NEEDS to be traded because he will not benefit the 09 team in any way because his IP limit is too low to serve as a full time starter and if we can get someone who can actually help the big club next year then that would be far more beneficial than simply holding onto the golden boy.â€
So then why not trade everyone in the minors who isn’t going to help the big league club in ‘09?
Your logic for why he NEEDS to be traded is illogical.”
Not only wont he help the club in 09 but I just don’t think he has the stuff to be successful in the AL East he would be killer in the NL but he doesn’t have dominant stuff. Low 90′s straight fastball+decent curveball doesn’t equal future ace.
Phiiip Hughes is 22 years old…..He will be needed very soon in the rotation…..So many here are going to eat large quantities of crow in a few years if not sooner…..
Out of right field on this one. Being that we are looking at Camaron. There is a player that had a bad year but has a great glove. The team would eat some of his salary with the over loaded outfield. Matthews?
Al from Burger King sure is trying to shove that “Trading Phil Hughes” Kool-Aid down a lot of throats. Apparently today’s reason is that he will never be successful in the AL East, even though he’s started a whopping 11 games against those scary AL East opponents which is, of course, such a huge definitive sample size.
I really like the idea of Swisher if Teixiera doesn’t work out. Very reasonable contract, most of his struggles can be attributed to a poor BABIP, great eye at the plate.
Al from BK -
Cliff Lee doesnt have dominating stuff and DESTROYED the AL last year.
You have no idea what you’re talking about.
OK, Peter, let me explain why the Brewers would trade Cameron. Because they only picked up his $10 Million option for 2009 to trade him. They want no part of paying a 36 yr old .240 hitter, who had 140 K’s in ’08, and is declining in all facets, $10 million for one year.
Cabrera regressed last year, but is 24 years old. He and Betemit, a useful reserve, and a good prospect makes perfect sense for the Brewers. Why the Yankees would be interested in that trade, though, is anyone’s guess.
Pete, your nuts. Cameron is terrible, especially at this point in his career. At 10 million and over 35 I would rather stick with Melky or Gardner …Preferably Gardner
Calm down, Pete. Cameron is nothing special. I grant you he’s OK and he’s worth more than Cabrera and Betemit, but I don’t see how Cashman would win any awards for that trade…
I wish they would non-tender Betemit, though.
How old is Cameron? And how with all the publicity about steroids in the last several years does this guy get caught doping? Why are the Yankees so hot for this guy? I’d rather run Bret Gardener out there then trade for this guy. Is he that great a centerfielder? I forget: Did the Mets win anything with him in centerfield?
I wouldn’t give up Melky for him straight up– however poor a season Melky might have had, he still has some potential.
Yeah Pete is overstating the one-sidedness of the so-called Cameron deal.
First, the Brewers overwhlemingly RH at the plate and adding a couple of useful LH bats for the bench or possible platoon duty makes some sense.
Second, as others have mentioned, Cameron is slipping, aging and probably not worth $ 10 M and the Brewers need to get their money’s worth while the Yankees can overpay.
Third, Gardner gives you the opportunity to rest Cameron more regularly, ideally making him more effective. this would paarticularly be beneficial against RH power pitchers who Cameron has a lot of trouble handling.
Looking at those factors, it’s a deal that could help both teams… maybe the Brewers platoon Melky/Billy Hall… and it buys the Yanks time for Gardner to mature and/or Austin Jackson to develop.
That said, I don’t make the deal. I want ALL acquisitions that are targeted for regular duty to be in their prime which means no older than 32.
how far we have fallen — what happened to all those “Melky has the same stats at the same age as Beltran” arguments from last year when the fans decried any trade of he and IPK for Santana
Payroll: $232,000,000 ? Beyond ludicrous. What part of luxury tax is not understood ?
It’s the bottom feeding MLB owner’s fantasy.
Yankees must Sign CC and AJ to deals that will make sense.
If Teix is willing to sign for 7-years, go for it.
If Marte is willing to take 2-years at $10MM, go for it.
Melky and Brett should be okay for CF for 2009 with AJackson coming along.
Sign either Moose or Pettite as the 4th starter.
Have Joba and Hughes share the 5th starter and the alternate plug in starter for 2009.
Yankees will have a great shot of reaching the 2009 playoffs.
I’ve heard that Cameron and CC are close. Could this be the Yanks trying to get an edge in signing him?
The Cameron/Betemit/Cabrera discussion reminds me of the talk when Cash did the trade for Abreu and Lidle. Chris Russo couldn’t get over Cash saying without Lidle the deal doesn’t happen. One GM was even quoted as saying he had offered more for Lidle alone and he didn’t get it.
The Brewers picked up a $10M option with the intent to trade Cameron. They lose absolutely NOTHING if they trade him, as opposed to just letting him go (maybe they would have received a draft choice if they let him go?).
A trade is about exchanging assets. $ are an asset. Cameron has a 10M contract. Melky and Betemit combined make about 2M. This trade could be viewed two ways. If you assume the Brewers don’t want Cameron and picked up his option to trade him, then they get Melky and Betemit for whatever draft choice they would have had if they just let Cameron go. If you were to assume they wanted him as a player, then they get Melky and Betemit plus 8M.
PS The Abreu trade was similar in that the Yankees were taking on his large salary. That was an asset going to the Phillies. That is why the trade wouldn’t have been made w/o Lidle. He was the compensation for the cash asset exchange.
Bob
Peter,
I wanted to get your thoughts on a proposed minor trade? What do you think of trading Kei Igawa to Seattle for CF’er Jeremy Reed?