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Andrew Marchand of 1050 ESPN Radio interviewed me for their Hot Stove Tracker report. So have a listen.
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Chad Jennings joined the The Journal News in October 2009, having spent the better part of seven years covering baseball in Scranton, PA. He is a graduate of the University of Missouri and an award-winning beat reporter and features writer. E-mail me at cjennings@lohud.com
Sam Borden is an award-winning journalist who joined The Journal News
and LoHud.com in January 2008. He covered the Yankees for the New York
Daily News from 2004-06, and has also worked as a columnist for the
Florida Times-Union in Jacksonville. E-mail me at sborden@lohud.com
Copyright © The Journal News, a Gannett Co. Inc. newspaper serving Westchester, Rockland and Putnam counties in New York.
Big Time Pete is your new name.
“Disaster”’s such a strong word!
I hope they’re not holding a position for Jackson. If they’re not signing a CF, it should be because there are no good candidates out there. They can always find a spot for the kid if he’s the real deal, but they can’t make decisions based on the assumption that he’ll “arrive”.
Mike’s on the fence? He’s back.
Great podcast.
Good stuff Pete!
classy, pete.
Pettitte wants $16M to pitch again!
Good for you Pete !
I’m guessing AJ signs this week, he’s been wanting to come here and 5 yrs. 80 million is not a deal I see him turning down.
I’m guessing Fishman/Cashman/Opp. have done thier HW on Burnett and his pitchability, yes there are concerns but injuries are things you can’t track and w/ a strong BP we limit the risk on AJ. Once AJ signs that may be the domino that makes CC say hey you know Mama’s Fried Chicken in NY not that bad.
“Pettitte wants $16M to pitch again!”
Bye Andy.
16 mil again? yikes
Where was it reported that Andy wanted another 16mil?
I heard it was half that.
George King (of Rumors) from the NY Post
Sorry didn’t see the new thread…
I hope this report from George King on Burnett’s offer is wrong.
This was from John Heyman yesterday:
“It’s not known what the Yankees are offering Burnett and Lowe. My guesses of $75 million for five years and $56 million for four, respectively, were said to be incorrect, so they are being secretive about those proposals.â€
I thought there was a reasonable argument for signing Burnett and Lowe.
But a 5 year/ $80M would be a mistake, IMO. That kind of long term deal for a guy with Burnett’s injury/ performance track record is just a bad idea.
If nothing else, opening up at 5/80 seems like the yankee’s bidding against themselves. Sure Carlos Silva got a 4 year deal but that doesn’t mean AJ has to get a 5 year deal. Silva’s deal does mean AJ’s market value is $15-16/ per. But it doesn’t set a floor for the years on the deal for a 32 year old pitcher.
I’m going to hold off on making much of this as King is just wrong all of the time. King also said that the Hendrick’s are refusing a pay cut for Andy – which I find very difficult to believe. He wrote that even if they sign AJ and CC they still would go after Lowe. Again, hard to believe unless they are trying to drive up the price on Lowe for Boston.
But if true this is really concerning.
AJ has great stuff – he’s always had great stuff. AJ’s fastball/ curve combination is very similar to Josh Beckett’s.
But the performance over the long haul of a season has never matched the stuff for AJ. And he’s no longer a kid.
Let’s see. But this is not a good use of resources.
Here’s the story link:
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11.....139209.htm
Yeah, I have my doubts that Andy wants 16M. He will likely be offered around 9
From the other thread….
CB, Carlos Silva isn’t setting the marketplace for AJ’s offer/deal. Dempster’s deal is what has/will set the marketplace for AJ.
If the reports out of Chicago are true (Dempster is close to resigning with the Cubs for 4/52), that’s the deal that sets AJ’s marketplace.
I don’t know a single person in baseball that would take Ryan Dempster over AJ Burnett.
If the Dempster offer/deal is true, then AJ is sitting pretty.
He knows the Orioles would go 4/60-64 for him. That means the Yankees have to top it.
5/75-80 would do so.
As far as Lowe, I think the Yankees get aggressive with Lowe if they don’t sign CC. If CC turns down the Yankees, then I see them going aggressively for Lowe and AJ.
If CC takes the Yankees offer, I think they go aggressively (if they haven’t already! lol) for AJ, and then sit tight and see what shakes out at the winter meetings.
I believe the Yankees goal has been to have both CC and AJ signed prior to the winter meetings. That would put them in a position of strength in determining what else they could do to upgrade the roster.
sounds good to me
It’s a George King rumor ? nevermind.
Shaking my head.
People in an uproar about paying a guy with AJ’s potential $16M, but don’t even blink at paying CC $23M.
In the Yankees eyes, they serve the same purpose. Go out there and give your team a chance to win.
Yes, AJ’s a gamble. But not a $140M (as it stands) gamble.
My math’s a little fuzzy, but CC’s contract is almost double what AJ’s contract for only 1 year extra for CC.
Any guesses on what they floated to Lowe?
If they are able to sign CC and AJ that sets up the 1-4 for several years. That would leave really one spot for Hughes, Betances, McAlister, Brackman, and IPK.
What would you say that means for there future?
“Dempster’s deal is what has/will set the marketplace for AJ.”
This is true. That said, I still don’t think the Yankee should sign Burnett for a 5 year deal.
$16M/ per – no problem. If Dempster gets $13M AJ is worth 16 easy.
Believe me – I love his stuff. I compared him in my last post to Beckett – and when he’s on that’s exactly who he looks like. The explosiveness of his fastball coupled with the depth and hard break of his curve are a combo very few pitcher’s can match.
When he took the mound against the yankees – I didn’t think the yankees had more than a 10% chance of winning that game.
But a 5 year deal is just too much. If Baltimore wants to offer 4/64 let them. Let AJ pick. If you need to – raise your offer.
Sometimes teams fall in love with guys who perform very well against them. I am concerned this is what’s happening a bit with AJ. The yankee hitters just rave about him.
But AJ just has not produced at the level to give him a 5 year deal at the age of 32.
King is citing “several industry insiders” and “baseball decisions makers” as the people telling him their offer to AJ is 5/$80 million–so basically just wild speculation. While I think SJ has teased out why it’s possible that number will be realistic, I really have to hope that it ends up 4 years with a higher AAV. I’d honestly rather have AJ at 4 years and $65-70, as opposed to kicking in that 5th year but saving a few million on per-year salary.
As for Pettitte wanting to make $16 million again, I think it’s funny…of course Hendricks doesn’t want his client to take a pay cut, what, is he supposed to say “yes, I don’t want any negotiating power with the Yankees, so I will openly say that we’re open to taking less money”? He’s got to keep up airs about wanting the most money possible, otherwise he wouldn’t be doing his job.
Their future – we need an edit button
Repost:
Thank you CB! Signing Burnett for 5/80 would be an AWFUL signing. I don’t want to hear about how he has great stuff. Last year in his “breakout year” he pitched to a 105 ERA+. Since when is slightly above league average worth a massive contract to a pitcher on the backend of his prime???
CB,
The extra year concerns me a bit. But, if you go for 4, you don’t want to lose him to the Orioles or Red Sox (who are also in on him) over one year. That’s the rub.
Its one of those situations where you grind your teeth, hold your rosary beads (if you are Catholic) and hope he holds up for 5 years.
I don’t think you concern yourself about what it means to Hughes, McAllister, et al. Half of those are at least two years away from pitching in the majors.
A lot of things happen over the course of two years. Guys get hurt, trade opportunities come along, etc.
If you are the Yankees, you want to establish a deep farm system. One of the ways of doing it is to sign FA’s that fit your needs. This keeps you from giving up young players to fill your needs.
Nothing wrong with depth. Depth allows guys to develop without being rushed. Depth also allows you options on the trade market.
It allows the Yankees to deal from strength instead of weakness. Something they have been unable to do for a very long time.
If the Yankees sign CC and AJ it sets things up for possible trades for other needed position upgrades. The pitching depth that this creates for the Yankees is very good.
Signing Burnett through age 37 is just a terrible idea… He may have great stuff, but he does not have very good command. That is why he has been so inconsistent throughout his career. How many 37 year olds do you know of who are still throwing 98 mph? Especially in the post-steroid era… if you think Burnett’s stuff will not decline over this contract then you are a fool. The only question is how much will it decline.
hopefully, big CC is signed.
140 million comitted between Burnett/Lowe, would be the final line, in Cashman’s NYY tenure. The system is completely loaded with pitching, yet the NYY front office would allocate this amount to these 2 pitchers. Completely unacceptable IMO.
I’ve had Cashman’s back from the beginning. And Burnett & Lowe would not be intelligent.
Good interview, comprehensive analysis.
Nowever it is not a “disaster” if the Yankees do not get CC, they simply go after Burnett and lowe.
Eric,
four years is a long time. I’m sure a steroid derivative will make it’s way back to the majors. Owners will look the other way, especially when the attendance drops from the coming rise in unemployment.
“I don’t want to hear about how he has great stuff. Last year in his “breakout year†he pitched to a 105 ERA+. ”
This is a bit misleading. The Jays have an excellent defense but for whatever reason, in the games AJ pitched the defense didn’t play as well as you’d expect.
That happens mostly due to random chance. One of the best parts of AJ’s game is that hitters have a lot of difficulty getting any lift on his ball. He is always around 50% of contact resulting in ground balls. Tremendous ground ball pitcher.
With any guy who produces ground balls like that in some years some ground balls will just happen to get through.
But adjusted for the defense behind him AJ’s ERA should have been around 3.45.
Can CC or his agent at least say something about the offer that the yankees just gave him.
Like, hey that was a generous offer that the Yankees have given me, we are just reviewing our options.
Something! Its not every day that a team offers a player the highest contract for that certain position, and they can’t even give a little comment about it for 5 days. The offer was given on the first day the Yankees could give the offer.
This guy must really not want to play here.
“King also said that the Hendrick’s are refusing a pay cut for Andy ”
“According to a Yankee source, Pettitte’s agent, Randy Hendricks, doesn’t want a pay cut for his 36-year-old client,”
The difference in semantics.
The first one is a little scary.
The second one is expected.
Andy Pettitte made 16 million last year at 36 years old.
AJ Burnett doesn’t have to throw 98 at 36. He has to be an effective pitcher.
None of us know what he will be like at 36.
What we do know is, he is an upgrade over most of the guys who were in the rotation last year.
The money? That’s the Yankees call. Like it or not, its also what the marketplace is for a guy like AJ.
If they add CC and AJ to this rotation, the Yankees are in a command position in terms of what they can do to fill out other holes on the roster.
They would be going into next season with the best starting pitching staff in baseball and one of the 4-5 best bullpens.
That’s a great way to start the year.
If other opportunities come along to improve the club, they would have the depth in the farm system to do it.
This team won 89 games with 3/5th’s of the rotation consisting of Ponson, Rasner and Pavano for the last two months of the season.
If CC and AJ sign (still a big “if” as of right now), its certainly an upgrade to what they had last year and its not even December yet.
For me the 5 years is worrisome because Burnett is the type of guy that’s stuff is bound to diminish as the years and mileage piles on. The case for him suffering a precipitous drop in some combination of effectiveness, velocity and health through the life of his (potential) 5 year deal seems stronger than the one that says CC will break down because of his weight, mileage and lack of repertoire. AJ has already been disabled and been through arm surgeries, plus he relies so much on velocity and his natural “stuff” that he seems less likely to undergo some type of late-career transformation and seems more like a flame-out candidate whose stock plummets when he loses his ability to blow his fastball by hitters. I get the sense that CC could cope with losing some MPH a lot better than AJ, just because he seems to be a fiercer competitor, more of an athlete (despite the weight) and mentally tougher. For me, I worry much more about the # of years when it comes to signing AJ as opposed to CC–while it’s still a “grin-and-bear it” situation to have him signed for 6 years, I think the anxiety that goes along with him for 6 years will (hopefully) be much lesser than what accompanies AJ for 5 years.
“Its one of those situations where you grind your teeth, hold your rosary beads (if you are Catholic) and hope he holds up for 5 years.”
LOL. This is exactly what AJ’s deal gets down to at 5 years.
Part of the context for this proposal to AJ is what the team learned the hard way this year with the two kids.
Moving forward I don’t think they will want to introduce more than 1 young pitcher into the rotation in at the start of any season.
This year its Joba. In 2010 it will hopefully be Phil.
But if that’s the tactic, you really need two veteran pitchers from outside the organization this year.
And the free agent market this year for pitchers is much better than next.
That said I can’t say I’m expecting a 5 yr deal for AJ to pan out. The probability going into such a deal is really stacked against the yankees given AJ’s track record.
Why does CC or his agent not saying anything about the offer mean “he doesn’t want to be in NY”?
Their job is not to give daily press briefings. Their job is to take in offers and make a decision.
Why give any indication to anybody about your intentions? That doesn’t help CC.
The more silence, the better the offers.
CC maybe a bigger risk than AJ, considering CC’s obesity.
“That happens mostly due to random chance. One of the best parts of AJ’s game is that hitters have a lot of difficulty getting any lift on his ball. He is always around 50% of contact resulting in ground balls. Tremendous ground ball pitcher.”
That’s what makes me want him. You get a SP that can do that hey you can’t turn that down not even Peavy has that ability.
5 years for AJ??
Amazing.
AJ has pitched 1376 innings in his roughly 9 year career.
Almost HALF of those innings came from 3 seasons. 2 of which were walk years.
The other 6 seasons, he’s averaged 124 innings. $16M for 124 innings?
Good luck with that.
Let’s say Pitcher A is 29, Pitcher B is 32, and Pitcher C is 22.
Their job is the same. Keep your team in the game for at least 6 innings.
Pretend that Pitcher A & B are both signed to 5 year contracts, but Pitcher A has a player option for the 6th year. Reasonable right? He’s younger and better? Ignoring AAV, it’s a $60M option!
a good agent wont negotiate in the press
“But adjusted for the defense behind him AJ’s ERA should have been around 3.45.”
Thanks CB, that is good to know. However, the Yanks do not exactly have the best defense, and certainly not as good as Toronto’s, so his ERA probably would not have been that good pitching for the Yankees.
SJ, I’m not denying the fact that he will help the team next year, and maybe even the next few years. I’m more concerned about how he will perform on the backend of this contract. This is not like Pavano where we knew he would not be able to contribute and made other plans. The last 2+ years of this deal, Burnett could be taking the mound and doing a terrible job. At $16M/year, the Yankees will not eat that contract, and he will be untradable. They will have no choice but to keep running him out there. This is not a situation like Moose where he can reinvent himself. AJ relies solely on his stuff, and I believe once that starts to deteriorate he will become a burden.
I’m sure there were many nay sayers when the yankees went as far as they did with mussina back in 01 (instead of manny, how little has changed), but that turned out to be their best FA signing of the decade.
i think the truest thing i read on the post today is that pitching signings are the great unknown, mostly due to injury.
this is the cost if we want to get back to the post season. they won 89 games last year with one quality starter. if you get back wang and add CC and AJ, that would have to account for at least 6 more wins, maybe more.
SJ44, yes, the Yankees won 89 games last season, but don’t brush off losing the production of Giambi and Abreu, that is a lot of run differential, and while the pitching upgrade looks good, the Yankees need to have more run production.
Think Blue Jays, their pitching last season was better than most, yet they couldn’t win games because of offense.
Burnett does a good job of keeping the balls down, but the Yankees will need good infield defense. I am not convinced that Swisher is going to provide that. Yes, better than Giambi, but still, does the defense upgrade outmatch the offense downgrade putting Swisher in at 1st?
John McCain and Abel
November 18th, 2008 at 10:38 am
5 years for AJ??
Amazing.
AJ has pitched 1376 innings in his roughly 9 year career.
Almost HALF of those innings came from 3 seasons. 2 of which were walk years.
The other 6 seasons, he’s averaged 124 innings. $16M for 124 innings?
Good luck with that.
________________________________________________________
Your math, like your logic, stinks.
Eric,
Let’s ignore football because contracts aren’t guaranteed. But in baseball and basketball, the big FA almost always get an extra year tacked on to their contracts. It’s the nature of the beast.
We did it with Mo, Po, and in the case of Alex 4 extra years.
Ok then, if Cashman doesn’t spread some money around, the rotation currently looks like this…
1. Wang
2. Joba
3. Hughes
4. Andy (at 16 million)
5. IPK or Aceves
Tell me I’m wrong, and tell me their other options.
I have to wonder if some of these posters ever watched a Yankee game. Giambi at first backed up by Abreu in RF had to be the worst defense for the right of the field in all of baseball.A grounder up the first baseline against these two is a guaranteed double, depending of course on who the hitter is.
“Burnett does a good job of keeping the balls down, but the Yankees will need good infield defense. I am not convinced that Swisher is going to provide that. Yes, better than Giambi, but still, does the defense upgrade outmatch the offense downgrade putting Swisher in at 1st?”
The difference between the Yankees and Blue Jays, though, is pretty stark offensively, even if the Yankees lose both of Abreu and Giambi. They still have so much more in their lineup than what Toronto had last year, and the comparison between the two situations doesn’t really hold water. The Jays at times had numerous gaping holes offensively, when Wells and Rolen were out of their lineup at the same time, Overbay didn’t hit (and is not a huge run producer to begin with), Rios didn’t produce like they expected…they ended up running out your Marco Scutaro, John McDonald, David Eckstein, Adam Lind, Matt Stairs-types on a frequent basis, whereas the Yankees offense even without Giambi and Abreu still has so many more run-producers. Yes there are question marks because of injury recovery and “bounce-back expectations”, but I think the offenses of the two teams aren’t really comparable.
Could you guys imagine if AJ Burnett and CC Sabathia stay healthy while Andrew Brackman, Wilkins De La Rosa and Dellin Betances continue thier developement waiting in the wings ? Just saying I’d love to have that problem for once.
I could live with an Alex-Jeter-Cano-Swisher infield. The weak spot would be up the middle, but at least Swisher can throw to home or second.
I want A.J. Burnett on the Yankees but 5 years is scary. Then again, 5 years is risky for any pitcher. Burnett would upgrade the rotation and he didn’t have any health problems last year (unlike Sheets).
WB,
I believe you are wrong.
But if you’re right….
Manny will be our LF
Tex will be our 1B
KRod to set up
Damon in CF
Ponson will be back by early May
Matsui, a 13 mil cheerleader
Our bullpen will collectively strike.
We’ll have no starting pitching,no defense in the OF at all
We’ll score a 1,000 but give up 1,000
Interesting stuff!
LOL. A knuckleballer got drafted in Japan….
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3709884
RhapsodyInBlue
I take it reading comprehension isn’t your thing.
Improving defense some but losing offense isn’t going to make the team that much better. Believe it or not, if a team can not score runs it is not going to win. (I typed that slowly so you wouldn’t be as confused.)
The Blue Jays had a great rotation, and poor scoring lineup. How well did they do?
Removing nearly 200 runs scored from a line up is tough to make up on defense. Swisher hit .219 last season. I have doubts that he is going to save as many runs as putting him at first will lose with his bat.
Next time don’t be such a jerk and insult someone because you have poor reading skills.
mel, I know that’s how FA signings work, I just don’t think that AJ is worth the risk. I’m not worried about the money… if AJ is injured and the Yankees need to replace him, that will not be a problem. I am worried about him becoming ineffective and taking up a slot in the rotation.
Imagine this scenario: AJ puts up a great 2009 and first half in 2010, then gets injured and is out for the rest of the year. He comes back in 2011 and due to his advancing age & injury, instead of sitting 92-98, he’s now 88-92 and his ++curve is now only a slightly above average pitch. The Yankees will have to keep throwing him out there for THREE more years because he makes too much money to DFA and that contract would be untradeable. I have no idea if this will happen, but I would say the probability of something along these lines happening at some point over the life of the contract is decent. The extra year increases the probability, and increases the amount of time they will have to keep running him out there.
Swisher can cover on bunts too, or protect the first baseline. Or make the toss to thew pitcher when he covers first.Giambi was a fixture, no lateral movement.
Giambi in my mind had to hit a few homers a game to justify his presence at first. He couldn’t make a 3-6-3. How many times have you seen Giambi involved in picking off the runner at first? He might have, but I don’t remember he was always too slow with the tag or out of position.
And how many balls have dropped in front of Abreu for hits that wouldn’t for either Boston or Tampa.
I’m not concerned about any offensive loss from either Abreu or Giambi, good defense and pitching wins games.
mel
November 18th, 2008 at 11:00 am
LOL. A knuckleballer got drafted in Japan….
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....id=3709884
___________________________________________________________
She could truly be the first player to go on the DL with a broken fingernail.
Mel,
The first female pro pitcher? I think not!
Here’s the first.
http://tinyurl.com/56zvmp
Time to “Go John Galt”
I understand your point perfectly, you don’t make sense.
Pitching and defense wins ballgames always had, always will.
Jeers
I see Manny as 1B, Damon still in LF but we trade IPK and JB Cox for Beltran to play CF.
I like where your heads at on KRod setting Mo up.
“I want A.J. Burnett on the Yankees but 5 years is scary. Then again, 5 years is risky for any pitcher. Burnett would upgrade the rotation and he didn’t have any health problems last year (unlike Sheets).”
I’d have gone 4 years and $64M (same $16M per) and hold on to that 5th year until the point where it became necessary.
“And how many balls have dropped in front of Abreu for hits that wouldn’t for either Boston or Tampa.”
How many right fielders for Boston or Tampa hit 20+ homers, steal 25-30 bases, hit .300, score and drive in 100 runs a year?
“Removing nearly 200 runs scored from a line up is tough to make up on defense. Swisher hit .219 last season. I have doubts that he is going to save as many runs as putting him at first will lose with his bat.
Next time don’t be such a jerk and insult someone because you have poor reading skills.”
I will refer you to a CB post from a few days ago:
http://yankees.lhblogs.com/200.....ent-589822
“Its inaccurate to say that giambi and abreu created 200 runs and that losing them will leave a gaping 200 run deficit. That’s not the way you do the calculation to assess their loss…Both swisher and nady are likely to be at least league average as replacements to abreu and giambi. The loss is not close to 200 runs.”
The original reason Abreu was picked up, I would prefer to have less offense at that postion and better defense, a better arm. Lack of defense one reason he is gone.
“How many right fielders for Boston or Tampa hit 20+ homers, steal 25-30 bases, hit .300, score and drive in 100 runs a year?”
I never criticize the Yankees for spending money; it’s what they do best. Even when they overpay for player, I rarely quibble.
But when Brian Cashman says, on the one hand, the Yankees can’t afford both CC and Teixiera and then, on the other, tenders (or is set to tender, or is planning to tender, or is imagining he’s tendering or is discussing paramenter or playing with his pud or whatever)– and then tenders a $75-$80 million offer to Burnett and perhaps a $45 million to Lowe, I begin to wonder whether he can add.
You tell me which is the more prudent way to spend $120, (i) offering $80 million on a five year contract for a 32-year old pitcher who has pitched 173 innings or more 3 times in his 8-year career and (ii) offering $45 million on a 3-year contract to a 35-year old pitcher (I would have though Pettitte and Mussina’s recent inconsistency would have cautioned about the risks of 35+ year old pitchers) or (iii) offering a 6-7 year deal worth $20 million to a 28-year-old position player who has been healthy his entire career, is among the best at his position in both offense and defense, and will be in his prime for almost the entire duration of his contract.
Burnett @ $80 million + Lowe $45 million or Teixieria at $125 million.
If you’re going to spend $125 million either way, it’s clear to me you maximize your value with the 28-year position player who’s among the top 5 or so all-around players at his position in the league.
As much as I love CB, I don’t subscribe to the defensive statistics he often cites on runs saved.
The defensive statistics sabermetricians use to calculate runs a players saves or cost his team are riddled with fallacies, unproven assumptions, and flaws in validity and reliability.
Bill James will even confess, when asked, his defensive metrics are still rudimentary and in the preliminary stage of development, and shouldn’t be accorded the same merit as his offensive metrics.
To illustrate, many of these same defensive statistics rated Derek Jeter the worst defensive player in baseball last year.