Yankees think the runs will be there
-
-
- November
- 25
-
Those waiting for Mark Teixeira to show up under the Christmas tree might be disappointed. As Tyler Kepner of The Times explains today, the Yankees are banking on comeback seasons from Robinson Cano and Alex Rodriguez along with the return to health of Jorge Posada and Hideki Matsui to provide their offense.
It’s simply fantasy baseball to think they’re going to sign CC Sabathia, another starter and Teixeira. Could they? In theory, yes. But there will be other slots to fill next winter when the contracts of Matsui and Damon expire and Xavier Nady becomes a free agent.
If the last eight years have proven anything, it’s that throwing piles of money at every problem is not an effective strategy. The Yankees are working on run prevention for a change and that makes a lot of sense.
Oh, and don’t forget about Jesus Montero. Most scouts think he’ll be a first baseman by the time he gets to the majors. Those good Class A players we keep hearing about are going to get here eventually.
————
OK, back to vacation. Assorted family members arriving today. If you’re upset with Brian Cashman’s plan, e-mail somebody else.
And if you’re getting ready to a nice Thanksgiving dinner at your home or with somebody else, count your blessings and then donate some money to your local food bank. Nobody should be without food and the people organizing those food banks can use your help. The need is greater now than it ever has been.
In Westchester, you can go here.
In New York City, you can go here.
In New Jersey, you can go here.
Wherever you are, it will take you five minutes to find your local food bank on line and donate a few dollars.
Thanks and enjoy the holiday.
This entry was posted
on Tuesday, November 25th, 2008 at 10:24 am by Peter Abraham.
You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed.
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
Josh Thomson
The Yankees are working on run prevention for a change and that makes a lot of sense.
—————————–
I’m not sure it does make a lot of sense. To win, a team must prevent runs and score runs. Last year our problem was not scoring enough runs. Our offense is getting worse by losing Abreu and Giambi, and we replace them with Swisher and Nady. We need to improve the offense more than we do the pitching. Sure, we need to make sure we have 5 solid starters, and I do really want CC, but we cannot ignore the hitting like we have been so far. a 3-4-5 of Cano-Rod-Matsui really isn’t as dangerous as we need it to be.
im with you there. i think cf is the only position not set in the field, it comes down to the pitching staff.
if they sign cc, tex and another top notch SP, their payroll will stay permanently above $200M. i dont see cash letting that happen either.
Listening to Neal Huntington talk about Patel and Singh on the dan patrick show. Fascinating. He actually mentioned the 1+ billion people and their translational baseball skills from cricket.
AJ+Tex is the way to go. Both want to play in the east.
setting yourself up for alot of e-mails, Pete.
*excuse me*
“if the yankees do 6/160 they would be insane.it would hurt them a lot going forward.”
CC’s averaged 222.0 IP in an 8 yr. span. The guy’s career low was 180 IP. Last season the Yankees had Moose w/ 200 IP and Pettitte w/ 204 IP. CC the last 3 yrs. has averaged 249 IP w/ no drop off in his stuff, he can take a blank check for all I care.
A bounce-back year from A-Rod? When he had an identical OPS to that of the man who should have won the MVP, Kevin Youkilis? I mean, I guess by Alex’s standards… but they shouldn’t really be hurting if he posts nothing but “down” years like this one from here out. What they really need to do is convince Jeter to move to the outfield, but that’s not happening any time soon.
Pete, Happy Thanksgiving… if you get CC it will do very nicely…we are also getting a healthy Wanger, Posada, Matsui and hopefully an A-rod who hits with runners in scoring position. The key is getting CC. It will be very very tough without him to win the division let alone thinking of anything better. It will take $160 million to get CC.
so you’re tellin me there’s a chance…
I realize that we need pitching this year, and next year’s FA pitching is lackluster.
But it’d be nice to pick up Tex.
This “all in” mentality of picking up all this FA pitching may help in year 1, but hamstring us later. Especially if we have some good, young starters in the system.
its simple… no c.c. = tex in the bronx. mark it down.
the red sox proved that throwing money at fa works also as long as they are the right ones.
the sox before ells,pedroia won with a trade for becket and mostly fa.
a combination is needed.
if the yankees didn’t overpay for every single player on their roster & picked up 1 0r 2 pitchers along the way they would be in a better position.
they always react too late.i didn’t like arod for 10 yrs,posada for 4 years.
a big bat will help but will cost.do we sign tex or wait for montero? is montero going to catch? do we wait for ajax?if montero is our fb who will catch?
the bottom line is we need 3 pitchers & that is still going to cost us 45-52 million a year & that is still throwing money at free agents because we are not going to go with hughes,kennedy,acevez to fill out the rotation.
That sounds like an incredibly sensible plan- rely on a 35 y/o with bum knees at DH, a 37 y/o coming off of shoulder surgery, and an unmotivated underachieving 2nd baseman to go along with the increasingly powerless soon-to-be 35 y/o shortstop.
Regardless, I empathize with Cashman- he is essentially going to have to turn over 1/2 the starting line-up in a year.
“the red sox proved that throwing money at fa works also as long as they are the right ones.”
Not really. They won in 2007 after spending tons of money on Matsuzaka, Lugo and Drew.
Lugo had a 65 OPS+, Drew had a 105 OPS+ and Matsuzaka 108 ERA+.
I think the Red Sox proved two things in 2007. Pitching wins championships (Beckett) and that a mix of free agents, trades and home grown players is the best way to build a team.
once you get cc, big If, but if you get him..we can fill in nicely with andy and the likes of ben sheets for two years , lowe or jon garland we dont have to spend more than that..burnett and tex is too much not necessary.
Angels preparing a Santana like offer for CC? Burnett seeking a 5th yr? Yanks satisfied with the lineup and not considering Tex?
To quote one of the worst songs of the 90’s, “What’s Goin On?”
Apparently, the whole FA season begins and ends with CC but he knocked the Yanks biggest weapon right out of their hands.
If the angels offer to CC is true, can the Yanks go higher. I don’t even like CC as the highest paid pitcher now. Are they supposed to pay him 26+ a yr? That’s ludicrous IMO.
Cash has his work cut out for him that’s for sure.
paying cc 25 or 27 million a year does not put us ahead of the sox.
cc against becket,how many more wins does cc give us?
it will take more than cc.
sign cc,pettitte,lowe,tex,trade nady/swisher,kennedy,a bullpen arm & a prospect for a cf.
we keep hughes,cano,montero,brackman,betances.
& ajax
I agree with Cashman’s plan of improving the starting pitching. Sign CC, Lowe/Burnett/Sheets and Pettitte. He still has the flexibility to make a few trades and improve the offense.
Next year with Nady, Damon and Matsui gone I see Cashman going after Holliday. Austin Jackson should also be ready at that time and the pitching will still be solid if he grabs a few guys now.
“Not really. They won in 2007 after spending tons of money on Matsuzaka, Lugo and Drew.”
I think he may have been referring to ‘04 where FA’s Schilling, Damon, Foulke, Ramirez, Ortiz, etc. were among the key players. I believe only Trot Nixon was a product of the Red Sox system that year.
“an unmotivated underachieving 2nd baseman ”
maybe you should read about Cano’s offseason workouts before you spout off about his “motivation”.
he sounds plenty motivated to me.
yes, i know everyone is “mad” at Robbie. let it go.
dude is getting into incredible shape and will come into camp a new player. watch.
that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t pursue Teixeira, they should. but it’s time to cut Cano some slack.
I’m glad the Angels are preparing an offer for CC. Its probably what CC has been waiting for; another team to compete against the Yankees. Now the real negotiations can start.
“sign cc,pettitte,lowe,tex,trade nady/swisher,kennedy,a bullpen arm & a prospect for a cf.”
stick to your video game trades.
Patrick
that is my point,spending money.drew was a fa,lugo i am not sure,dice-k was basically a fa.they spent money but always put themselves in a position to do it smartly.
they traded coco,got a bullpen arm & lowered payroll & put themselves in position to spend more and not have a ridiculous payroll.
Peter:
I agree that “throwing piles of money at every problem is not effective strategy”, especially over the last 8 years.
Throwing money at the right time for the right players would have resulted in much, much better results IMO. Primarily:
(a) signing Carlos Beltran in 2004 when he was a Free Agent and offered Cashman a hometown discount. The Yanks were, at that time, fiscally respnsible – and they’ve been searching for a quality all-around CFer ever since.
(b) Not making a solid offer to Free Agent Vlad Guerrero who has lit up the AL – and the Yankees – since he became an Angel in 2004.
(c) Not fully exploring a trade for the best pitcher in MLB, Johan Santana, because they couldn’t part with a potential No.5 starter (IPK), potential No. 2/3 starter (Hughes) and a 4th Outfielder (Melky).
The current Yankee farm system certainly seems promising but is 2-4 years away from producing potential stars. Some money needs to be thrown at starting pitching and a CFer as a minimum.
“Apparently, the whole FA season begins and ends with CC but he knocked the Yanks biggest weapon right out of their hands. ”
really, do you really not think the Yankees have a contingency plan?
if the Angels sign CC, you don’t think they will their focus to Teixeira?
is it at all reasonable to believe the Yankees are just going to do nothing if CC doesn’t sign?
relax people. it’s not even thanksgiving yet.
duh
November 25th, 2008 at 10:57 am
“sign cc,pettitte,lowe,tex,trade nady/swisher,kennedy,a bullpen arm & a prospect for a cf.”
stick to your video game trades.
you’re name suites you well.
the funny thing is if the yankees did that you would be loving it.
my point is everybody critisizes everything.i am getting so sick of all these rumors.
bru, Your point makes no sense.
The Red Sox won in 2007 after spending absurd amounts of money on 3 players that underperformed expectations. The Red Sox proved the exact opposite of your point – that a team can win despite spending money on the wrong guys.
The sox won in 2007 because they made good trades (Beckett, Schilling) and got production out of homegrown guys like Youkilis, Pedroia and Ellsbury. Then of course Manny and Ortiz are monsters. Not because they spent money smartly on good free agents.
The difference between Cashman’s approach and some here is he isn’t looking for the offense to all live up to career bests just their career averages. If they do that, they have as much offense as anyone and then it comes down to the pitching.
It’s not simply a matter of run prevention being better than run scoring. All things held equal, run prevention is somewhat better than run scoring, but what’s really more important is the marginal value of whatever player — pitcher or hitter — you are thinking of adding. RLYW has a ranking of free agents according to wins above replacement value. CC leads the list at 5.5. Tex would be second at 4.1. Burnett is third at 3.7. Based on those numbers, Tex would be a better pickup than AJ, all things being equal.
duh
November 25th, 2008 at 11:00 am
“Apparently, the whole FA season begins and ends with CC but he knocked the Yanks biggest weapon right out of their hands. ”
really, do you really not think the Yankees have a contingency plan?
if the Angels sign CC, you don’t think they will their focus to Teixeira?
is it at all reasonable to believe the Yankees are just going to do nothing if CC doesn’t sign?
relax people. it’s not even thanksgiving yet.
————————————————————
duh!!!!!!
This quote from Long sums it all up:
“If we have C. C., A. J. Burnett, Chien-Ming Wang, Joba and Pettitte, you score four runs on any given day and that should be enough,” Long said. “That would be a nice feeling, you know?”
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11.....ref=sports
“(a) signing Carlos Beltran in 2004 when he was a Free Agent and offered Cashman a hometown discount. The Yanks were, at that time, fiscally respnsible – and they’ve been searching for a quality all-around CFer ever since. ”
no, they weren’t fiscally responsible. they were simply stupid. Steinbrenner wanted Randy Johnson. it was either or. it was a terrible decision, that yes, was partially financially driven, but they simply could have opted to not trade for Johnson.
“(b) Not making a solid offer to Free Agent Vlad Guerrero who has lit up the AL – and the Yankees – since he became an Angel in 2004.”
this was another non-financial but stupid decision. Cashman wanted Vlad who got $15M. George gave Sheffield $13M instead. this wasn’t really the money. it was George’s obsession with Sheffield.
Tom,
Saw that little “slip of the tongue”.
Trouble was we couldn’t score 4 runs for 1/3 of the year. ;?
I’m not too worried, though. Injuries decimated us last year. We stay healthy, we’re good.
Its begining to look a lot like Christmas…..and no CC to NY…..
AJ or Lowe plus Tex thowing money at Tex is not wasting it……switch hitter…..great defense…..wants to play here equals a good fit.
CC Sabathia You are now on the clock!!!
Sure no CC,
They’ll just go out and get Tex,AJ,Lowe and Sheets . Easy as pumpkin pie. Thanks!
The key to everyday “consistency” (last year’s main failing) is A-Rod. If the “protection” he is afforded in the lineup are two over-the-hill 35+yr-olds, each of whom is one twist away from the DL, the Yankees will be well in the deep —. If the opposition has “no fear” of that which surrounds A-Rod, it will be “deja vu all over again”. Contrary to conventional wisdom, IMO, the priority need is at least one “Big Bat” in FA, even assuming Cano rebounds and the bottom third of the lineup is not “Mendoza” laden.
If management is really content with the “starting” (which may well not be the “finishing”) lineup (and not simply using it as a negotiating ploy with Boras), which appears to be the prevalent view amongst the esteemed press, it will be a very long season.
As each day passes, the likelihood of CC wearing the Pinstripes lessens, perhaps even exponentially, as the noise from the Left Coast suggests that that is where he will end up.
Overriding all, of course, is the mandate that you NEVER believe anything you read or hear (other than the announcement of an actual signing by the team) during the FA period, but…..
Pete, I don’t follow your argument.
I think your point is that the Yankees should not sign Sabathia, Teixeira, and another starter. Yet you say the Yankees theoretically could afford all three signings and would have money coming off the books in 2010 once Matsui’s, Damon’s, and Nady’s contracts expire. This would seem to support breaking the bank on these three signings.
Sabathia is obviously our top priority. But after that, things aren’t so clear. The top of the remaining FA pitching class, Sheets, Burnett, and Lowe, all have serious red flags. Meanwhile, Teixeira would give us a terrific bat and glove and would let us use Swisher to plug an OF hole. He would also be a good bet to give us value for every year of his contract.
You say throwing money around doesn’t solve problems. It doesn’t, if you throw it at the wrong players. (You could just as easily say “trading prospects doesn’t solve problems. Of course it doesn’t, if you make bad trades.) We would not be wasting money if we throw it at one of the best pitchers and best first basemen in baseball.
You say the Yankees have gone to a run prevention strategy. Sabathia and Teixeira would fit right into that strategy.
If you have any scouting reports that project Montero to be anywhere near the player Teixeira is, I’d love to see them. More likely he will have to fight for a starting job.
The idea of the Yankees signing both Sabathia and Teixeira is hard to digest because both players are just so good. But if the Yankees can afford to do it, they should make these signings happen. Sabathia and Teixeira are premiere players that would help the team immensely.
“Based on those numbers, Tex would be a better pickup than AJ, all things being equal.”
sure, but we know for a fact that all things will not be equal.
Teixeira contract will wind up twice as large as Burnett’s.
The angels were always going to offer CC a strong deal.
He’s essentially been hinting that he might choose not to monetize all of his value and instead take some of that value to enhance his choice of where to live.
From the Angels perspective – if this was true – then they could get CC at a below market price.
But one of the keys in any of these deals is how the money is structured.
Santana’s contract is worth $138.5 total dollars. But a big chunk of that is deferred and being paid at below market rate interest. Santana is essentially giving the Mets a below market loan. In terms of real dollars his deal is worth $123M
The yankees don’t use deferred money often and don’t backload deals nearly as much as other teams. Right now the only one on the team receiving any deferred money is Alex – and that’s from Texas.
So the yankees $140M offer is realy $17M real dollars more than the Santana package.
I’d guess the angels package will be structured with similar deferred money/ large backloading.
Another factor in play is the signing bonus. Obamam is going to let the Bush tax cuts lapse. This means the marginal tax rate for nearly all baseball players is going to go up quite a bit. They will want to get all of the money up front they can before Jan so they can pay at the lower tax rate (I’d guess this is why Tex is saying he wants to sign by Christmas…)
I also doubt the angels can offer the kind of up front signing bonus money the yankees can.
What really matters in terms of money in these contracts is the total real dollars the deal is worth. The agents of these players are well aware of that.
Far too many, if not all, of the members of the New York (and national) media believe that his/her opinion is grounded in actual fact, and that any view to the contrary is based on patently faulty reasoning, and thus not worthy of consideration.
“you’re name suites you well.
the funny thing is if the yankees did that you would be loving it.”
if they did what? which CFer are they trading for? what prospect? what bullpen arm?
all you did was list a bunch of nonsense.
also, “you’re” = “you are”.
when insulting someone’s intelligence, it’s more effective if you spell things correctly.
“Trouble was we couldn’t score 4 runs for 1/3 of the year.”
Mel, your right. But I’d settle for a .666 winning %
I should add that the view out here on the Left Coast (FWIW) is that the Angels will go hard after CC and let Teix (who really prefers the East Coast) go. The Angels reportedly believe that Kendry Morales is ready, and that first base will be his to lose.
“IF” so, do you really think the powers in place are going to sit by and permit Boston to be in the driver’s seat?
*you are
The more I think about it, the more I think they should pull the offer from Sabathia & go out and get Teixeira. The difference between Sabathia and Hughes may be a big one this year, but not in 2 or 3 years in my opinion.
Jeremy,
All of your points are well taken and make perfect sense to me.
Thumbs up on donating to Food Banks.
Delmon Young out there to be had…any takers?
Peter, thank you for the voice of reason.
Only if the Yankees don’t get CC Sabathia will they pursue Mark Teixeira. Otherwise, we have plenty of offense with the return of Matsui and Posada. I think a lot of us aren’t giving Nady a fair shake. They hit pretty well last year, did he not?
If nothing else, we can keep our ear to the ground for trade possibilities mid-season. If we can’t get it done with this offense, then we’re screwed anyways:
Damon
Jeter
Matsui
Arod
Nady
Posada
Swisher
Cano
Gardner
We should be able to do plenty of damage with this lineup and remember, if we have CC Sabathia in the rotation, its all the less offense we’ll need.
Pitching wins championships.
both of yous need to no that its not “suite” its “suit”
“suite” is a really, really nice hotel room for hi rolllers
Tom,
At what expense?
It doesn’t make sense…the Twins will be asking for solid prospects since Young is a formidable OF that can probably play CF.
I think we need to let our offense actually get out there and do its thing before we resolve to trade away six prospects for one outfielder.
Also, who’s to say there isn’t a solid OF option that will be a Free Agent next offseason?
For “business” reasons, this is the most critical, perhaps even a “watershed”, year for the Yankees. Were Ownership to allow the on-field decline to continue, the financial effect could be most damaging and difficult to overcome within what appears to be, or should be, the Steinees’ “Valuation Timeframe”.
Fortunately, this is a unique Free Agency year, given the availability of several impact players. Next year is not.
I am not sure if signing Tex is the most important need of the hour. The reason I say this is not only the dire and current need for an ace pitcher but also the fact that the best bat in baseball and best glove at his position would hit the FA market in 2010. Yankees can get by with the resources they have given a surplus of corner outfielders and acquisition of Swisher.
If the Yankees desperately need an additional bat this year, I prefer it being Manny over Tex for that reason. He would cost a lot less overall and fewer years, could be the DH (not that it is a position the team is struggling to fill) and be productive given the right motivation.
mel
November 25th, 2008 at 11:31 am
both of yous need to no that its not “suite” its “suit”
“suite” is a really, really nice hotel room for hi rolllers
————————————————————
If a guy in a tuxedo walked into that really nice hotel room for high rollers and it was filled with Godiva Chocolates, it would be a suit in a sweet suite.
Plan B, if no CC, might be Sheets,Lowe and Tex and bring back
petite. Not too expensive.
GB7,
LoL. Can always count on ewe in times of knead.
Is today homophone day? Nick in SF in MD would luv that.
I’m very depressed if what Peter reports is anywhere close to accurate.
Looking at the forest not the trees, in what world do you finish out of the playoffs, lose Giambi, Abreu, Moose and Andy, and think you can do OK without putting most if not all of that money back into the team? It’s not like those guys were hideously overpriced (well, OK, maybe Giambi).
The Yanks think they can compete with bounceback years from Cano and Swisher, a healthy Posada and Matsui and better timed hits from ARod? Do you like drawing to inside straights?
Don’t forget Damon had a really good year, and Nady had the best year of his career, and Jeter’s power was down, and we have no center fielder we can count on. What happens if Jeter declines, or Damon declines, or Matsui?
On the offensive side, there are too many ifs to believe in much upside if we stand pat.
For reasons I discussed here yesterday, I don’t believe the Yanks are going this way. If they do, then look out. I don’t think a pitching strategy, even if we got CC, AJ and Lowe all three, could do much better than 96 wins. I don’t think that’s a good bet to make the playoffs next year. Neither the Sox nor the Rays are going to stand still either.
Plus, looking down the road, where will our offense come from when Matsui’s, Damon’s and Nady’s contracts expire? Will the Yanks look to put that $30MM back into the team?
Will they look to reduce payroll again? What free agents are available to replace them? 2010 isn’t looking great for the free agent class.
There’s not much help offensively in the minors. Jackson may be our center fielder in 2010, but Montero is a long way away. He may never pan out, and for that matter Jackson may not turn out the way we hope either.
We need offense, and that costs money.
Wow, where is the logic by Cash and others this offseason? I know that we’re not all Rhodes Scholars including the media, but come on,
1. Its more than obvious that the Yankees aren’t getting CC. Where is Torre when you need him? His recruitment skills of FA’s has been vastly underestimated and underappreciated imo. Do FA’s really want to play for Girardi, when he pulls stunts like removing candy, etc from the clubhouse? These are grown men, not kids!!! Come on, would you want to work for someone like him? If Damon had clashes with him during the season, you expect others to want to come and play for him? Huge negative for the Yanks imo, is having Girardi as the face of the franchise when you’re trying to lure FA’s. It speaks volumes that CC hasn’t even sniffed a response to the huge offer from the Yankees.
2. A rotation of Burnett, Joba, Wang, Pettitte, Aceves/Hughes is so injury prone and its not a given that the Yankees will go 5 years for Burnett, and Lowe is headed to the Sux, (imo). This staff does not match up to the Rays and Boston, sorry folks, just being honest. But look out in 2010 and 2011 when Betances, Brackman, Garcia, McAllister and Joba are in the rotation. The sad part is that Mo will be gone by then.
3. I see the Yankees getting someone like Sheets and maybe another B Level FA pitcher.
4. I see Tex going somewhere else, I don’t seeing him going to the Sux (no one has mentioned that their #1 prospect is Lars Anderson, the #1 1B prospect in the baseball and could be ready by late 09). I would be overjoyed if Tex came to the Yanks because I feel he should be their #1 priority and if it takes 10 yrs – $20 mil, so be it. He is someone that you build around, period. Sure Montero is coming but we don’t know if he can hit ML pitching, let alone be a good 1B defensively. Its a mistake to rely on minor leaguers no matter how much we think that they will be great players. Plus these are the NY Yankees with a brand new stadium to fill, come on folks!!!
5. I also see a HUGE risk if the Yankees are wanting to rely on a lineup with Damon, Matsui, and Posada to be injury free all season and a HUGE risk to expect past numbers from these 3 and players like Nady to play a whole season when he’s a been a part time player most of his career. Also, Swisher batted .219 last season for gosh sakes. The offense right now is very, very, very problematic to say the least. I don’t care what Cano is doing in his spare time this winter, where was this during the season? And where will it be once he’s back in NY during the regular season, staying out all night whoring around Manhattan?. Sorry, I can’t get excited until Cano shows me on the field that he’s improved and focused.
6. Unlike a lot of others I see the Yankees bringing back Abreu for a 2 year contract, with a 3rd year team option. They deparately need him, Cano at #3 is a disaster waiting to happen, his OBP is horrid, he has no speed. They NEED Bobby A, period. Now if they do, I see him DHing some to get a better defensive player in there in RF.
I may be in the minority but I just don’t see the Yankees having the horses yet to overtake and compete for the division with Tampa and the Sux in 09. Look for 2011 to be their year when some of the lower level prospects come to the big club. I hope the $2,500 per game seat holders are going to be happy with a 3rd place team.
By the way, I’m just being honest in my evaluations, I just don’t see it for 09 the way the winter is going so far.
Prove me wrong Cash, please!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
mel
November 25th, 2008 at 11:43 am
GB7,
LoL. Can always count on ewe in times of knead.
Is today homophone day? Nick in SF in MD would luv that.
———————————————————–
The mind works in mysterious ways, doesn’t it?
In some cases, in bizarre ways.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/bl.....nba,124642
Lots of LeBron in NY talk.
These sneaks are pretty cool, but did I miss the 2nd NY shoe with pinstripes?
Wave Your Hat,
Sorry bud, but I’ll take Peter’s word over yours.
Of the guys you listed that we’re losing, Andy will likely be back and we seriously needed to cut Giambi loose. Abreu can and will be replaced in RF with Nady, who is arguably a better fielder and a decent hitter to boot. Hitting behind A-Rod won’t exactly hurt him either.
One might argue that Jeter had one of his worst years. You don’t think the Captain will be working his tail off to get back to form? Count on a bigger year from him.
We have plenty of weapons on offense. We had the same offense last year as we did in 2007…nearly. They were killers in 2007 and mediocre in 2008. Middle ground between the two is certainly possible.
Dumping 160+ million on Tex right now does not make sense when our real needs reside in the starting rotation.
Once again, us spoiled Yankee fans do not need to expect the Yankees to go out and buy every expensive free agent just because we can.
In 2010 this team will be nasty. Mark my words.
We can have a strong 2009 if we get CC on board, no doubt about it. But watch out in 2010. We will be a force to be reckoned with.
Jake, baseball owners through the years have loved fans like you. Nothing’s cheaper to sell than hope.
If you’re upset with Brian Cashman’s plan, feel free to email the Respect Jeter’s Gangster blog. We will listen, understand, hug, and be there as a shoulder to cry on. We do it because we care.
Lots more offense will come from Matsui, Posada, Cano being contributors for the whole year, instead of a lineup with 3 or 4 guys each day hitting a few ticks above or below .200.
And a better year by A-Rod. This is acknowledging A-Rod actuall did a lot, but he can do a lot more.
If Swisher has a ‘decent’ year (for him) he’ll contribute a little more than Giambi averaged over he last 4 years. And he can play defense at 1B. If he’s at par and the others step up like they were unable to in ‘07, it will be an improvement.
I consider the offense from 1B as a very slight upgrade going from Giambi to Swisher. Just bat him in the bottom third of the order instead of right behind A-Rod. That Giambi was in the 5 hole was a problem.
Posada, Matsui & Cano should be good for 50-100 BA points higher than each of the guys who filled their shoes last year. The re-focused Cano would take the slacker Cano’s place of course.
That in mind, I see making a move for an OF or two as an angle for a little more run production.
Not to knock against Swisher but economics aside, Tiexiera instead of Swisher would make us that much better.
If CC bails out on NY, I hope there’s second consideration given to Tiexiera. Considering Boston would trade Lowell away to make room for Tiexiera if he was healthy enough & they had to.
Given that Lowell’s health will be in question for a little while, my guess is we’d get first shot at Tiexiera if we wanted it.
The problem is what is in store for 2009?, not 2010. With a new stadium, and expensive seats, this is a team that didn’t even make the playoffs in 08. The way that this winter is going so far, and the fantasy that some have that the offense as it is now constructed is ok is ludicrous if they think that they will be competitive with Tampa and Boston. Who knows if Posada and Matsui are even ready in April?, it could be June or later esp for Posada. You have huge holes in Center and 1B, and Nady is a part time player not a fulltimer imo. Damon, Matsui are injuries waiting to happen and the pitching staff is very injury prone. Its a mess right now and I’m glad I’m not Cashman at this point.
Wave,
Here was a very interesting interview Vince Gennaro the guy who does a lot of work on baseball economics did with another website whose name won’t go through the filter here.
“If you were the Yankees, would you rather spend the available cash on CC-Tex-Pettitte (and round out the rotation with Aceves) or CC-Lowe-Burnett and plug Swisher in at 1b? As the master of the money, what makes more sense to YOU. In both cases you are spending roughly $53M+.
VG: Last year, the Yankees only got 102 starts from Wang, Mussina, Pettitte, Hughes and Joba—arguably their 5 best starters. They were 29th in # of starts by their “top 5”. Ultimately, they proved to have horrible depth in starting pitching. One of my classes at Manhattanville is finishing a study that looks at the value of roster depth. One of the early conclusions is that the Yankees’ lack of starting pitching depth hurt them more in 2008 than their subpar hitting. This year the Yankees appear to be thinking in terms of 6th, 7th and 8th starters (a group that made 60 starts last season), given the way they are approaching the free agent market. I think that’s a very positive step. My Yankee priorities would be 1.Starting pitching; 2.Starting Pitching; 3.CF; 4.Starting Pitching; 5.Trade-up at 1B. (I’m assuming one of the starters is Pettitte.) They don’t all need to be addressed via the free agent market–you can accomplish some of those thru trades—but that’s my priority list. Your scenario of CC-Tex-Pettitte leaves the Yankees too light in the starting pitching department. CC, Wang, Joba, Pettitte, Aceves, with Hughes as a #6, maybe Coke as a #7? I would not want to go to battle in the AL East with that pitching rotation. So, if I’m forced to choose from your two scenarios, I would have to go with CC-Lowe-Burnett. I’d love to throw CC, Burnett, Lowe, Wang, Joba and Pettitte as my top 6 starters. (Remember, Joba is going to be limited to probably 20 starts max). You should be able to get 140+ starts out of those 6 starters.”
He thought the CC-Tex-Pettite-filler starter would be taking on too much risk in the AL East.
On the flip side he basically said given the type of revenue streams and pricing the yankees now have, the marginal cost of missing the playoffs would be astronomical and the yankees should have no budget and should do everything possible to put a 95 win team on the field.
Tim,
You’re going to fire up a lot of people with that comment about it being “obvious” that CC isn’t coming to New York…watch…
Wave Your Hat,
Its not hope pal, its being realistic.
Would I love Tex, sure, do I think we need to dump the money on him at this time, no. Simple as that.
Also, keep Peter’s mentioning of Jesus Montero in mind. Probably figures to be a 1B. Who knows whether he’ll pan out, but 1B will be a serious area of issue for the Yankees in short time, especially if Jeter is being considered.
And to clarify, by serious area of issue, I mean LOGJAM.
The bottom line is we need improvements on both offense and defense. But anyone that thinks offense is the bigger problem is insane. How many teams winning the world series these last few years are scoring 1000 runs a year?
Yes, we need better offensive performance, but if you think adding Jorge Posada and getting the real Robbie Cano back isn’t a drastic improvement, you have a very short memory.
We’re not getting CC, AJ, Lowe, AND Tex. Ideally, I would love to see CC, Lowe, Andy and Tex, but I’m not even sure Cashman would do that. In that equation, Lowe and Andy are both short term investments, so it does make some sense if Tex can be had for the right price.
A good way to go may end up being:
CC, Andy, Sheets (cheap/ish due to injury, with Phil Hughes, Aceves, etc as a backup) and Tex. But again, I’m not sure I see Cashman going 10 years on Tex. He’s not A-Rod.
Throwing a lot of money at Burnett or Lowe are the types of mistakes we’ve made in the past. I’m all for run prevention so long as we’re bringing in the right guys to do it. Burnett and Lowe will both be grossly overpaid despite injury concerns for Burnett and Lowe’s terrible home/road splits. Either would be an awful signing.
Teixeira however would be a great signing in that he is almost guaranteed to produce at a high rate for a long time. He’ll cost a lot but he’ll still be a very valuable asset to this team throughout his contract.
CC and Teixera are the only free agents in this class worth a big time, long term contract. They’re not the only ones that will get one, but they’re the only ones truly deserving of it.
If we go into the season with the offense we have I can almost guarantee that we will struggle to score on a fairly frequent basis. The offense won’t be terrible, but it won’t be anything even approaching championship caliber. Then next year when our entire OF are FA’s and we could’ve had Swisher to fill one of those holes with Teixeira at 1B we’ll likely be stuck with Swisher at 1B and no one other than maybe Jackson or Gardner in the OF.
I don’t think we need to go all out for Sabathia. If he doesn’t want the 6/140, he can go somewhere else. We can sign Sheets, Burnett, and Tex. We already have two potential aces, why bother with getting Sabathia if he’s going to command a ridiculous amount of money?
Plus, Sheets was fantastic last season. We would just need to be careful with him. Give him 2-3 years and give AJ 4 max. Tex will do a lot more for this team than CC will imo. Wang has been our shutdown ace for quite some time and him and Joba in the postseason will be phenomenal. Hughes is also getting his stuff back together and all reports are that he’s making his way back to a top of the rotation starter.
CC is not a make or break thing.
“But again, I’m not sure I see Cashman going 10 years on Tex. He’s not A-Rod.”
If Cashman had anything to say about it, they wouldn’t have gone 10 years on Arod.
I think Teixeira will get 8 years from somebody.
We will get more offense out of Matsui and Posada if they are both healthy, and that’s a big assumption to make. We cannot realistically expect Mr. Dual Knee Surgery and the recently operated shoulder of Posada are going to put up the usual 80 – 100 RBI’s and 20 jacks that they used to. If they can each log 400 at bats, I’d be happy for them.
I still think the overlooked FA name here is Dunn.
The Yankees could get a big bat in Dunn at a fraction of Teixeira’s cost in money and years. He is not a perfect fit by any means, but the Yankees could play him in LF and give Damon some time in CF.
Is the plan with Montero, Laird, Romaine, ect., to let them spend a year in A+, a year in AA, a year in AAA?
CB,
Great points!
Its also imperative to consider the fact that the AL East isn’t just two teams anymore. Its nearly four, though I think the Jays will take a step backwards this year, IMO.
It starts and ends with Starting Pitchers.
I know Tex excites people a lot. He’s a stud. But how sick would a rotation be with a guy like Joba and Pettitte as your 4 and 5 pitchers? I love it. You have a potential ace as your 4 starter!! This is a step in the right direction.
Of course, it all revolves around CC at this point, so we shall see whether that plan for success works out…
im cool with the offense as it is, get me a championship starting staff and we can with with the hitters we’re paying now.
jeremy, your plan basically to throw this year’s payroll savings but also next years at every FA on the market is brilliant. for this year. then we have no money to replace damon, matsui and nady and what do u do then?
the yanks are going to lower their payroll this year and keep it down as the young talent begins to lower thier replacement costs.
“If Cashman had anything to say about it, they wouldn’t have gone 10 years on Arod.”
I agree. Just saying I think he’d still be more willing to give longer years to Arod than Tex. Tex is a great player, but he’s not Arod good….
The only reason why Alex got 10 years is because of the homerun chase.
Otherwise, why sign a player until he’s forty something? Even the greatest athletes slow down.
CB-
Great read. Thanks. Gennaro’s a guy you have to respect.
That said, his six starter scenario is not realistic. Plus, I think buying the sixth starter would provide a poor marginal return.
Looking at the CAIRO projections and won-lost estimates over at Replacement Level Yankee Weblog, I can’t see a three free agent starting pitcher strategy doing better than 97 wins. That’s assuming our offense increases next year as well.
I guess I can’t complain about 97 wins. But, given that the Sox have a lot of money coming off the books this year, but aren’t losing any really important pieces from their playoff lineup, you have to figure they will improve. You have to figure the Rays will improve as well.
So, even 97 wins doesn’t make me feel that great. Especially considering that one injury to the Yanks offense could really hurt given the lack of a bench. Plus, how do we know Cano or Swisher will bounce back, that Matsui will stay healthy, or that Damon, Jeter and Posada will hit their career averages?
no one deserves 10 years no one including arod.
tex is a very good player but he is no superstar.
burnett to the orioles for 5 years, I pray this happens.
Sign CC and pettitte and save your coin………….
the staff would be cc, wang, pettite, joba, and hughes… Call me crazy I like that staff and with a very good pen they will be fine.
All this talk of lost offense because of no giabaroid and abreu… what are you smoking giambaroid hit 205 with RISP and runs like a guy carrying a piano on his back..
Abreu is softer then the pillsbury doughman.
Cano has to get back to 2007 form and afraud needs to pick it up to 290 to 320 avg. , 40 to 55 hrs, with 110 to 145 rbi’s…
Tom
November 25th, 2008 at 12:19 pm
Is the plan with Montero, Laird, Romaine, ect., to let them spend a year in A+, a year in AA, a year in AAA?
————————————————————
It pretty much depends on how well their defense progresses and whether their hitting keeps growing as they move through the season. If they play as well in Tampa as they did in Charleston, they could move to Trenton at mid-season. The trick is to make sure both Romine and Montero get enough time behind the plate to show improvement. There is one other player to be added to this mix and that’s Brad Suttle, the 3rd baseman, who is not good at all on defense. He may be best suited as a Dh, but, I think the Yanks are hesitant to pigeon-hole a young player as only a DH. He’d have little value in a trade. He’s sort of the Yankees version of KC’s Billy Butler.
Apparently the Angels have begun talking to CC.
This is good and bad. Its good because it will hopefully give us an idea of what kind of offer they can extend and likely allow us to resolve this CC issue sooner rather than later.
We need CC resolve asap.
There are ongoing discussions on this board and in the media about “Cashman’s Plan”. Does anyone really know what his “plan” is, or even if he has a “plan”, well thought –out or not”?.
Other than the announcement that offers will be made to CC, AJ and DL, what else has he said that could be construed as a “plan”? Speculation by Pete and other members of the Press as to what he is going to do? Hank’ comments about Manny? Nothing to my knowledge, not even tidbits, about Teix “from” management other than Cash’s off-hand comment that there would be no signing of both CC and Teix at the outrageous numbers being asked.
As of this moment, (i) an offer has been made to CC with no response (or, we have not been told that there has been a response), and (ii) no offers (presumably) to either AJ or DL, the sticking point, so the press tells us, is 4 vs. 5 years for AJ..
“If” we fail to get any of the three, what is Cash’s “Plan”? Do we really know? Does Abe, Sherman, Tyler, Graziano, Heyman, Gammons, Cafardo, or anyone really know?…has Cash “confided” in any of them? Is any pundit’s speculation any more likely to hit the mark than yours or mine? It is absurd to think that gratuities spouted by anyone, especially at this time of the year, are of any moment whatsoever, a pundit’s pomposity notwithstanding.
stuart
November 25th, 2008 at 12:31 pm
Cano has to get back to 2007 form and afraud needs to pick it up to 290 to 320 avg. , 40 to 55 hrs, with 110 to 145 rbi’s…
———————————————————–
Just how well would Rodriguez’ numbers have been had he not missed 3 weeks? As it was, he hit 35 homers 103 RBIs and .300 and led in Slg and had a .392 OBP. That’s pretty much the same rate as he hit every year. 40+ homers and 115-120 RBIs last year would not have been a stretch. So, exactly how is he a fraud?
“So, even 97 wins doesn’t make me feel that great.”
Wave,
Come on! You can’t argue with planning a team that could project to win 97 games. You just can’t. How many teams that win that many games have failed to make the playoffs, particularly in the Wild Card era?
That said, BP projected the 2008 yankees to win 97 games…. (which none of the guys at BP believed in their preseason picks… so much for numbers and intellectual property).
I was also surprised to see those projections from RLYB on how many wins the pitcher heavy strategy projected to win.
The big wild card with that strategy is really injuries to the pitching staff – in particular, how many innings they get from Burnett.
I think Burnett projected to be 3.7 wins above replacement and Tex 4.1 or so. That was a surprise but goes to show the value of pitching. If we could be reasonably sure that Burnett would throw 200 innings things would be more straight forward.
Hard to know what the optimal strategy is as none of us knows the true yankee budget.
Hopefully CC signs. If he doesn’t – even with Tex – I think the team will have difficulties in 2009. CC is the key.
Even if they don’t sign Tex I think they will improve the offense. They’ll just do it in different ways. They’ll improve the bench, upgrade CF and look for good values on the free agent market.
Miss out on Tex and there are other options.
Would they take a shot at Manny if it’s a 3 yr/25M deal?
Does the market for Adam Dunn collapse? Play him at first and move swisher to LF (LF at the stadium is too big for Dunn, IMO).
No substitute for CC. Real limitation of wins above replacement – not all of them are made equal.
Much easier to find an above replacment level 1b than it is an above replacement level picher. Never mind a pitcher who projects to be 5.5 games above replacment next year.
Valued at a marginal win value of $5.5M CC would be worth $30M next year. Now granted you can’t sign him for only 1 year, etc.
But a 5.5 WAR pitcher is exceedingly rare.
Agreed thumbs up on posting foodbank information. Local food banks are in need of food and funds! Instead of going to lunch and spending 10 bucks on a sandwich donate it to your local food bank.
Also NY Cares still has over 8,000 letters left to be answered. My friends and I got 10 letters. They aren’t asking for huge items.
For those who missed it. Goodbye Continental …Hello Delta
http://www.bizofbaseball.com/i.....;Itemid=42
the Rays won the AL East with 97 wins. When did 97 wins become nothing? Only the cubs equalled 97 wins, and only the Angels beat it…….
Stuart, I like that rotation too, but not as our only option this year, with Hughes and Joba on innings limits.
Anyone know what Hughes innings limit will be given his AFL work?
“I guess I can’t complain about 97 wins. But, given that the Sox have a lot of money coming off the books this year, but aren’t losing any really important pieces from their playoff lineup, you have to figure they will improve. You have to figure the Rays will improve as well.”
I’m not so sure I agree with you. The Rays and the Red Sox will always be contenders in our division but you have to remember the Rays were fortunate enough to keep their starting rotation healthy for most of the year. The Red Sox may make some good acquisitions in the off season but if Ortiz continues to regress and Beckett looks as bad as he did at the end of the season (looked like he needed TJ) then I think a ceiling of 97 wins can definitely get it done.
I agree with VG’s analysis except that I’m not so sure we need CC Burnett AND Lowe. I also am liking the idea of Sheets for 2 years if Burnett is asking for 5 years. Also I’d rather not deal with Scott Boras if possible because I know he will have an insane asking price for his client Derek Lowe
Pavano with Florida 201 innings
222 innings
Beckett with Florida 107 innings
142 innings
156 innings
178 innings
Pitchers are like a box of chocolate. You never know what your gonna get. Thats including this years batch.
i think its hilarious that these companies pay big dollars to be the “official whatever or the new york yankees” or any other team.
buick and tiger woods decided to just skip the last year and $7M on his contract. in his time as thier spokesperson buick sales went from half a million vehicles a yr to less than 200,000. everybody loves tiger but nobody believes he’d ever even sit in a buick if he wasnt being paid to.
as long as delta want to kick into the kitty for c.c., im happy but dont expect it to even cross my mind when i book a flight.
Peter,
You said that, “throwing piles of money at every problem is not an effective strategy.” Right you are, Sir!
If only our government would heed your advice we would be spared the hell we are facing after saving the pampered butts of the economic elite in this country.
Ham fighter,
You mean im not going to get all the Maxim women wearing “Driven” cologn?
Peter, you need to stop saying things like this. A significant part of run prevention is also defense. Teix and Beltran played excellent defense and were available in their late 20s. Complete packages like that don’t come along often enough to ignore. If the Yankees aren’t using their tremendous financial advantage to go after young players that are complete packages then they aren’t making the most out of their money.
“If the last eight years have proven anything, it’s that throwing piles of money at every problem is not an effective strategy.”
if any of a number of bounces go differently, the last 8 years look much different. take 2004 – if Tony Clark’s double in the 9th inning of game 5 doesn’t take that weird bounce into the stands, Sierra scores and the Yanks probably win. Etc., etc., etc.
By Pete’s logic, the way that ball bounces determines whether big-time spending was an effective strategy, at least for 2004.
Besides, free agent bat are FAR more dependable than free agent pitchers.
Pete you mentioned Montero … how’s Montero looking these days? Playing winter ball anywhere? Playing C or 1B when he plays? SJ you have anything new on him? Anyone?
Great, so we’ll lose 3 to 2, 4 to 3, etc. Last year’s biggest problem was lack of offense.
Regression: Damon, Matsui, Nady
Better: A-Rod, Cano, Swisher
???: Jeter, Posada
Obvious improvement at C, but Posada is 38 years old during the season. At some point Jeter will see some regression(some say we’re seeing it).
This team clearly needs offense.
ANSKY
November 25th, 2008 at 1:08 pm
Pete you mentioned Montero … how’s Montero looking these days? Playing winter ball anywhere? Playing C or 1B when he plays? SJ you have anything new on him? Anyone?
————————————————————
Montero hasn’t started playing winter ball, yet. He just finished playing the the most games of his career at age 18, so, I’m sure that NYY is trying to keep the games down a bit. Hopefully he can catch 10-55 games between now and the end of their season in the Venezuelan Winter League.
George … I think you missed the point.
For one thing, those funny hops happen whether you spend tons of money or not. If the team is smarter with the buckage and the roster, the funny hops that happen to work against us aren’t as often going to be the ultimate difference makers because the team would be far enough ahead (in the standings, a series, or a game) in the first place. More often, at least. Those things will still happen though.
Correction: ***catch 10-15 games***
Thanks GB7. Definitely looking forward to seeing how he’ll do in ‘10 or ‘11. Patience in the meantime I guess ….
a few good bounces here and there wouldn’t have kept Giambi out of the steroid headlines or off the disabled list.
Long’s assessment that 4 runs scored a game is not one I would think anyone should feel comfortable with. First, it puts a heck of a lot of pressure on the pitching staff to know they can’t give up more than 2 or 3 runs a game. That kind of pressure ends up wearing the pitching down.
What about when they face really strong lineups?
The Yankee FO seem to go from one extreme to the other with how they want to construct their club. They need balance.
The Blue Jays had excellent pitching last season. How did that work out? Their offense was poor, and it kept them from winning a lot of games.
Cashman needs to go for balance. Yes, pitching is important, and its the thing that was lacking over the last 8 years or so. That doesn’t mean you go all out for pitching and forget about scoring runs. That isn’t even getting into defense.
Counting on bounce back years from one player is a worthwhile risk, counting on it from multiple positions, is asking for trouble.
Yep, Chris … that Giambi was here and underperforming for at least half of those 7 years was more of a problem than a few quirky hops in the wrong situations.
ANSKY
November 25th, 2008 at 1:16 pm
Thanks GB7. Definitely looking forward to seeing how he’ll do in ‘10 or ‘11. Patience in the meantime I guess ….
___________________________________________________________
My pleasure, ANSKY. Please keep in mind, this is mostly just an educated guess. Another guess would be that either Montero or Romine will be in Trenton around mid-summer to help Anson and Gil with the catching up there, as long as they keep progressing. They are so young, though, but, they appeared to be extremely coachable in Charleston this past year. Their offense is well ahead of their defense so far.
James Taylor live on Francessa today. No time, yet.
” it puts a heck of a lot of pressure on the pitching staff to know they can’t give up more than 2 or 3 runs a game. ”
He wasn’t suggesting that they HAD to give up 3 runs or less. He was suggesting that a rotation like he mentioned would be good enough that they wouldn’t often give up more than 3 runs a game, which would take pressure off the hitters. He didn’t say his hitters weren’t capable of scoring more than 4 runs a game.
“It’s simply fantasy baseball to think they’re going to sign CC Sabathia, another starter and Teixeira. Could they? In theory, yes. But there will be other slots to fill next winter when the contracts of Matsui and Damon expire and Xavier Nady becomes a free agent.”
This is why the Yankees need another bat this offseason. Next offseason, they could possibly have holes at 3 of the 5 OF/1B/DH positions with the possible departures of Matsui/Nady/Damon. On top of that, what if one or more of Cano/Swisher/Posada doesn’t bounce back next year, and repeat their unproductive 2008 campaigns again? This would mean even more holes in the yankee lineup looking beyond 2009. You can’t just assume all of those guys will produce at their typical level prior to 2008. If the Yankees don’t address some of these needs now, then they open themselves up to the huge risk of having 3 to 5 starting bats to fill in next offseason. They need to start addressing this problem right now. If they sign a teixeira or Dunn, this helps fill in one of these holes. The Yankee minor leagues is still loaded with way more pitching than hitting. They are not prepared at all to fill in all of these offensive holes from within during next offseason. They will need to use trades or free agency. Getting Swisher was a start, but they still need to improve the offense a lot more than that.
Sabathia/Pettitte/Teixeira might seem like overkill, but it is possible. Sabathia/Pettitte/Dunn is probably more realistic, especially since Dunn seems to be undervalued and could probably be had on a 3 or 4 year contract for max 15 million a year. But the point is, the offense might need a huge amount of help going into that 2010 season.
And please, for the love of Buddha, stay the heck away from Burnett and Lowe.
IMO the Yanks need 1 of the big 3 in this FA class.
1.CC
2.Tex
3. Manny
If speculation is we don’t get 1 or 2, we should really consider Manny, instant offensive upgrade for the entire line-up, expensive yes but only for 3yrs.
try to get Burnette, Lowe, and Sheets for the rotation.
My hope is that the Yankees sign Sabathia, one of Sheets/Lowe/Burnett and Pettitte. Then trade for some offense and bench players.
CB-
Just read your 12:45pm post. I went out to grab a sandwich.
Pretty much agree with everything you said. And, I did admit I really can’t complain about 97 wins.
But, how often has there been a division as strong as the AL East will be next year? Can you trust the pythagorean win projections in a situation where there really aren’t many historical parallels? I think it’s likely the Yanks will underperform that 97 win projection, although I have no math to back that up.
That said, the gain in expected wins between a CC-Tex-Pettitte strategy, and a CC-AJ-Lowe strategy, is probably only about one win, and you probably save about $6MM, give or take a little, with the CC-AJ-Lowe approach. The real question is which strategy is riskier? I don’t know, but I feel the pitching approach is riskier. Pitchers are inherently dicier, and if one of them is AJ…
If the Sox take some of that $40MM coming off their books and sign Teixeira, how do you feel about our chances then?
Hat, you also have to consider the fact that, with 3 teams very competitive in the AL East, could be that no-one is going to win more than 94, 95 games. The 3 teams play around 18 games each against each other, someone’s got to lose in each of them…
IMO if they cannot get CC or Tex, going with Manny for 3yrs would fill the void for next years FA departures.
We need 3 starters, Pettite has to be 1, if no CC. I’m not sure about the other 2, I’m leaning in favor of Lowe because he stay’s healthy, eats innings.
Manny. Ha.
If the Yanks actually go out & sign Manny, I’ll be rooting for 24 of the 25 guys on the team as long as he’s here.
It’s kind of like when John Lester pitched his no-hitter. It was OK to cheer for him that day w/o cheering for the Red Sox. For me, every day would be the opposite of that if Manny was on the Yanks.
Chris NY,
You’re not making me feel better. 94 wins would put the wild card in serious question, don’t you think?
ANSKY, I’ll take you at your word about Manny…
But, people in NY now love Johnny Damon, one of the icons and faces (and beards) of the 2004 World Champion Red Sox…..
I can’t stand Manny, but if we did sign him (and I don’t want him, because I don’t want monument park being used as a urinal), people in the Bronx would cheer for him with every home run he hit.
What does intrigue me though, is signing him just to make him cut that damn hair…….
If signing tex and co were only “fantasy baseball,” then why wouldn’t (or isn’t) cash driving up the price for other teams/our enemies? And why wouldn’t cash use the whole “we tried really hard” excuse w the fans… Sounds in fact like cash is doing some serious negotiating (and pete is either kissing up or trying to make his “shocking news: the yankees have spent zillions on overpriced free agents” story that much better for us to find under the tree x-mas morn).
not necessarily, Hat. The Sox won the wild card last year with 95 wins and they had a 6 game lead…
Hard to believe that Joe DiMaggio would have been 94 years old today.
Pitching-wise, I’m leaning towards hoping the team signs CC for his 6 year offer, Lowe for 3 years (maybe plus a team option year) and Sheets for 2 years plus a team option year or 3 years if the price is right. If Lowe or Sheets want more time than that, I’d say be VERY cautious.
If Sheets turns out to be fine, we can always sign him to an extension later on. Lowe too, but he’s just going to keep getting older so it’s probably not going to be worth it by then.
If Burnett wants five years guaranteed, let him find it elsewhere unless the last two years are the team’s option.
Peter,
That was a very nice post and a great suggestion.
Happy Thanksgiving.
(See, I’m not always negative.)
I understand the feelings on Manny, but he is proven, he can produce in the AL east. He would help take pressure off the rotation with his bat.
I don’t want him instead of CC or Tex. I only suggested it if we fail to land 1 of them.
There is always Garland, who could be gotten reasonible.
If no CC, maybe Pettite, Lowe, and Garland.
Yeah A-Rod needs to have a comeback season badly. How could he not win the MVP this year? Being one of the top four hitters in the AL was just unacceptable and hopefully he’s learned from the experience.
“Access Hollywood” reports that Cynthia, who’s in the final stages of her divorce from A-Rod, wrote an e-mail to a confidant noting: “My 6-foot-3, 220-pound soul-less, soon-to-be ex-husband is abandoning his kids on Thanksgiving to be with Madonna . . . She called and he ran on her command back to New York City . . . Gross!”
i want cc here asap but if he wants to go to the west coast we sign burneet and sheets i noe they get injured alot in the past but those to are better the ponson and rasner and we kan wast that huge offer on tex and sign another big bat like a ramirez
Sorry “reasonable”..
Nice confidant. Yeah Alex is a dog, but that ‘confidant’ is just of a dog.
We’ll see if the Angels really do offer this contract in the neighborhood of the Santana deal. Then we’ll soon there after see how high the Yankees are willing to go.
Some interesting offensive breakdowns pulled from the info in the 2009 Bill James Handbook.
http://baseballanalysts.com/ar.....ames_5.php
With the Cubs supposedly out of the Peavy trade talks, we could always see something come back around to the Yankees on that front. Maybe the price in terms of prospects goes down enough to make it worthwhile.
If the Yankees strike out on all three top FA pitchers, I think the plan B should be as follows:
1) Sign Oliver Perez to 4-years at $40MM.
2) Sign Ben Sheets to 3-years at $30MM.
3) Trade for Zach Greinky. Include Hughes and two others not named: Brackman, Betances, Jackson and Montero.
4) Sign Penny for 1-year for $7 MM with incentives.
Perez has great stuff but poor delivery. He has good upside.
Sheets could be the bargin of this FA class.
Greinky has upside and should be a good #2 starter.
Penny could be a low risk gamble.
Any opinions and thoughts?
Pete, Good man for mentioning the Food Banks. It’s something that most of us do not think about except around the holidays. I fall into that category too.
There is no reason all of us who post can not give $10-$20+. We are obviously fortunate enough to have a computer, internet access, and some free time to spend on the site.
Donating $10 is not going to break anyone here. Ante up and donate. Charities will be very hard hit this year as the economy continues to tighten. They can use our help.
“For those who missed it. Goodbye Continental …Hello Delta”
And most likely Goodbye Newark … Hello JFK and Hello additional traffic and headaches!
Jerry, are you putting Brackman, Betances, Jackson, and Montero all ahead of Hughes in terms of value, or you just assume it would take Hughes and a lower level prospect?
Chris NY – I didn’t go bonkers when Sheffield ‘produced’ here despite his being a chap who was known to be tad irritable on occasion. I should have no problem staying in my seat if Manny were ever to hit HRs in pinstripes. Especially if he stood at the plate & watched it or pulled a ‘Usain Bolt’ and crossed home plate limbo style. If the Sox fans who I know well cringed every time he stood at the plate until a HR landed (whether in the seats or on the warning track), I should have no problem here.
I confess, however, that it’d be kind of tough to stay put if it was an ‘Aaron Bleepin Boone’ type HR. I’d consider any reaction to something like that to be team-oriented though … I’d still not like that it was Manny doing it. But I don’t think it’ll ever become an issue.
Kinda hard making an assumption like:
“throwing money around for hitters the last 8 years”
A) Steroid ERA
B) The team was not this old
C) Some really bad “throwing money around” decisions
D) 2008 is a completely different market (salary and new stadium profit wise)
If the Yankees want to compete they have absolutely no choice but to sign both an Ace and an offensive/defensive 5 tool player..
where does that leave us?
You have to sign Tex and you have to sign CC..
I am sure those will disagree, and those are the same that disagreed about Santana..
How can you expect Cano to come around? He has a .264 minor league average.. why do you think the Yankees wanted to trade him for The Big Unit itinitially?
Matsui: Knee surgery, Bad wrist.. can he hit? Yes, can he stay healthy? Maybe
Damon: Wants to retire
Arod: way too distracted with pop stars, ego and records
Jeter: Always great but performance on the decline
Posada: Can he handle the entire season?
way too many “maybes” to even take the gamble to not go ofter Tex… plus, the difference between Tex and CC .. Tex wants to be here.. CC is *thinking about it*.
In any case, I am not to impressed from all the speculation and reasoning.. this team needs to come strong and man up.. they have Boston and The Rays to compete with.. frankly, I don’t see this team able to do so.. Boston and Tampa both had their share of injuries last year, but they still made it to the post-season..
stop making excuses and man-up.
IMO I doubt very much the Yanks trade Hughes, unless Peavy is coming to town.
Good point, ANSKY… If somehow he decided to be a human being instead of pulling his usual nonsense, I’d welcome him and his bat (as a DH only). But I probably have a better chance of winning mega millions.
“IMO I doubt very much the Yanks trade Hughes, unless Peavy is coming to town.”
I agree. Or at least I hope that’s the only way possible he gets traded.
If Cashman is really serious, and I mean really serious, about signing CC, he needs to show up on Thanksgiving to CC’s home with one of these. CC will sign immediately.
http://bacontoday.com/turbacon.....-in-bacon/
Tom, never before has something sounded so disgusting and delicious all at the same time…
Jerry form Queens:
If they don’t get any of the pitchers they want, they should sign me. Hey, the Pirates signed a couple reality-show contestants from India (not that they’ll ever amount to anything) so I think I deserve a shot. I’m a year younger than Jamie Moyer, my arm’s good for almost as many innings as Carl Pavano’s was, my control’s almost as good as Kyle Farnsworth’s when he’s off, and my fastball’s about as fast as Tim Wakefield’s … knuckleball. I’m less quirky than Barry Zito, I can throw a slider in the dirt with the best of them (only because I can hardly reach the plate) and I could use the money. Further, I can probably cover as much ground as Giambi at 1B.
Granted, I’d get killed by the first line drive hit directly at me, but what a glorious death it would be.
Bronx Jeers
Delta has their own terminal at Laguardia. 10 minutes from the Stadium with a police escort.
ansky that was preety funny
The yankees used delta last year. Now I guess it is official.
At least they aren’t using tax payer dollars to pay for their sponsorship, like Citi Group. 400 million they still owe the Mets and WE are paying for it.
OMG FRANCESSA PALS AROUND WITH TERRISSSS!!!!!!
BILL AYERS IS IN STUDIO!!!!!!!!
AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!
YF91
Considering the money all those guys have made, I never realized how much of a value I would be at he major league minimum salary.
Note to Brian Cashman: When can I get a signing bonus and a tryout?
AND HE’S TRYING TO FEED PEOPLE!!!!!!
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!
Kevin K
Agreed,and don’t forget NY Cares either. Dont go to the post office and get letters go on NYcares.org, and get a letter from someone truely in need!
Last year some when I went to the post office to get a letter, people were asking for plasma tv’s. I’m like yeah and I want to hit the mega millions. Not gonna happen.
ANSKY:
If Cash calls being I’m 4yrs older, please tell them I’m your personal trainer.
the Yanks are not giving up Hughes for Peavy. Peavy is garbage outside of Petco Park.Enough of this Peavy talk
As nervous as Yankee fans are toward some finalization of a Sabathia deal, how nervous must Scott Boras be knowing that a slowed economomy throws a wrench into what he’d like to see in deals for Manny, Teixeira, Lowe, and his other clients ?
He’s like a man walking around with handcuffs.
Tim
If Cash calls and I get a signing bonus, then you’re on.
Viva
November 25th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
How can you expect Cano to come around? He has a .264 minor league average.. why do you think the Yankees wanted to trade him for The Big Unit itinitially?
Matsui: Knee surgery, Bad wrist.. can he hit? Yes, can he stay healthy? Maybe
Damon: Wants to retire
Arod: way too distracted with pop stars, ego and records
In any case, I am not to impressed from all the speculation and reasoning.. this team needs to come strong and man up.. they have Boston and The Rays to compete with.. frankly, I don’t see this team able to do so.. Boston and Tampa both had their share of injuries last year, but they still made it to the post-season..
stop making excuses and man-up.
———————————————————–
To answer some of your most incorrect or laughable “points”.
Cano hit .278 in the minors.
Since when does Matsui have a bad wrist?
When did Damon say that he wanted to retire? 2012?
What ego does Rodriguez have that any other star player not have? I seriously doubt that he or Jeter think about records when they’re playing. How do you know that he’s distracted because of rock stars? Jealous much?
Were those other teams missing their catcher for 3/4ths of the season, or three starting pitchers for at least half of the season, or, their third baseman for 3 weeks or their shortstop for a week? Or their DH for half of the year? and all of them at the same time?
Boston knew at the start of the season, and should have known back in January that Schilling was having surgery, so they weren’t counting on his 8-9 wins any way.
Come on…stop exaggerating and man up.
Jennifer it was my understanding that Continental was the “official” airline for the Yankees last year thus my comment about goodbye Continental.
I just heard an interview with a LA reporter on XM’s Inside Pitch. I didnt hear the entire interview, but it sounded like the Angels are not all that interested in a long term deal ( especially if it goes to 10 years)for Teixeira and will be getting into the CC sweepstakes instead. The Angels would have the West Coast advantage over he yanks obviously.
I’m not particularly enamoured with signing AJ Burnett (health issues) or Derek Lowe ( age issues). IMO, anything over 3 years for Burnett is too long and anything over 2 years for Lowe is too long.
We’ll see how it all plays out, but the Yanks pitching could be very thin starting the ‘09 season.
Drive 4-5 …
Don’t worry if pitching is thin. I’ll have my agent, Tim Clougher, call Brian Cashman after the holidays to set up a time at the winter meetings.
“Peavy is garbage outside of Petco Park.”
Jake Peavy has a career 3.80 road ERA.
Pitching might be thin, but I won’t be.
“Jake Peavy has a career 3.80 road ERA.”
Still not worth giving up Hughes and others.
ANSKY:
I’ll play hard ball at the meetings to hammer out a contract on your intangible qualities, I’ll use the Giambi refence on your fielding abilities, but I won’t be as extreme as Scott. Boy won’t we be a sight for sore eyes.
I’m not sure I would even do Hughes for Peavy straight up, given the contract extension Peavy will want. IPK, I would though. I don’t think they’ll end up trading him unless they take next to nothing in prospects. He’s going to want a big extension, especially if he’s traded after CC signs a contract.
ANSKY:
Thanks for the promotion, I just wanted to be a personal trainer, but hell I could be an agent.
Sorry if my last post about CC and Tex was old news. That’s what I get for working all day lol
But seriously, the Yanks could be in a bind. It’s not like Brian Cashman isnt going to do his best to fill out the roster. But the Yanks could have to make a choice between a desperation move (Sheets?) or trade prospects they’d rather keep. They certainly are not in an advantageous position when it comes to trading.
I’d prefer they do the best they can with the rotation in ‘09 with lesser quality free agents or trades and hope Hughes, Aceves or the overhyped Kennedy surprises. In the meanwhile, use their money to tie up the best 28 year old free agent to hit the market in a long time, Mark Teixeira.
I wasn’t talking about trading Hughes for Peavy…I was just making a statement that if Hughes was to get traded they would be going after a pretty big name pitcher such as Peavy..I still doubt the Yanks will trade Hughes at all…
Interesting that Angels are potentially off Tex and on CC. They know they have the coastal advantage but will be hard pressed to pay CC with Lackey coming up next year.
They need Tex but so do the Yanks. We need an everyday 1b that we can lean on like we did Mattingly,Tino and Giambi. Only we will now have a much better defender than we’ve had in the last 7 years which will make our infield defense a whole lot better.
Tex is a pretty good runner and has a good eye which will fit right in the middle of our line up.
I am not as high on CC now as I was before. I like the Sheets idea and could live with Oliver Perez if it means we can get Tex. I also believe that Hughes needs to be in our rotation as the #5.
1- Sheets
2- Wang
3- Joba
4- Perez
5- Hughes/Pettite
With 88 mill coming off our books we just added back 20 on Tex, 15 on Sheets, 10 on Perez. We also added payroll with Swisher and Marte. So there is room for more additions. I could live with Petite and keep Hughes down so now we are at 60 mill added if we pay Andy 12mill.
I still see room for Manny 20 mill as our DH. Trade Matsui and eat some of his contract if need be.
Our line up would look like this:
1- Damon CF – let melky or gardener be def replacement
2- Jeter SS – not cf, enough with that talk already
3- Tex 1B – lock down for 8 yrs 165mill
4- Manny DH – bronx boy/ Sox killer, anything better?
5- Alex 3B – all time HR hitter in waiting
6- Swisher – RF – could platoon with Nady
7- Nady LF – could play Damon there and Melk/gardener in CF
8- Posada C – this is a must with Molina spelling
9- Cano – best 9 hitter in baseball
Bench 4- Ransom, Molina, Cabrera, Gardener. Do we need a PH ?
Pen 7 – Mo, Marte, Veras, Coke, Bruney, Ramirez, (Geise,Robertson,Sanchez ??)
Starters – 5
Line up -9
Would the money work? I think it could. With the money for Damon and Nady coming off the books next year and Matsui if they trade him we would be ok. Forget about an A ball first baseman. We all know that we need to win now with Jetes and Arod aging and the fact that NY will not wait for a winner in the new stadium. Please !
I’d do Peavy straight up for Hughes. Hughes’ ceiling was often compared to Peavy when Phil was still in the minors. Theres no way the Padres would do Hughes straight up for Peavy but if they would I”d take that trade-off. You lose a cost controlled player but recieve a guy that can already throw 200 innings and is in his prime.
Sabathia is a must sign. It is very rare that a legit #1 ace pitcher hits free agency. As nice as Teixeira would be on the team, Sabathia is a better sign.
“Delta has their own terminal at Laguardia. 10 minutes from the Stadium with a police escort.”
True, but Dallas is as far as they could go. Short runways.
Patrick,
I’m with you… I’d do Hughes for Peavy in a heartbeat. Too bad SD wouldn;t.
YankeeRay,
Why on earth would any team pitch to Alex Rodriguez if Nick Swisher batted behind him?
The Yankees arent going to sign both Manny Ramirez and Teixeira anyways.Also, Matsui makes $13mil in ‘09. The Yankees could never get fair value for him in a trade IMO.
So when are the yankees going to announce “Reality Baseball?” I can’t wait for the press conference whwn cash tells us that instead of signing any good FAs, the Yankees have traded for a bunch of “great clubhouse presences” and signed the best tv directors to give us a detailed account of their funniest clubhouse jokes and expert clubhouse mediation skills.
While I’d rather keep Hughes, I honestly think Hughes for Peavy straight up is a fair trade. The Padres would be sacrificing a proven pitcher for a not yet completely proven younger pitcher, Hughes has an upside to be just as good as Peavy, and they get 11 million off their books. We would also have to give Peavy a raise and extension, so we’re sacrificing money to get a pitcher further along in their development.
The risk is obviously bigger for the Padres given that Hughes hasn’t proven he can stay healthy and throw 200 innings. But if they want to shave payroll, they’re going to take a chance on any young pitcher. Might as well be one of the same (projected) caliber of Peavy.
Still, I’d rather keep Hughes.
Sabathia is a must sign. It is very rare that a legit #1 ace pitcher hits free agency. As nice as Teixeira would be on the team, Sabathia is a better sign.
- Why is he a must sign? He’s logged a lot of innings and 6-7 yrs is a long time to invest in. If the Angels are in we are going to have to up our offer. We can get Sheets and Perez for that money and still sign Tex, Pettite and Manny.
Thats 80-90 mill in FA’s and we will be set for at least 3-4 years. If we miss on these guys we will be struggling for the next few years.
AJ in CF next year for no money. Manny will be fine in the bronx. Whats wrong with this?
And I’m not saying San Diego would do it, but it’s not outrageous to think it’s a fair trade, or at least close to it.
Oh please, come on folks, some of you sound like news of LAA pursuing CC instead of Tex is earth-shattering.
Logically, what is the real news to the rumor or possibility or fact that LAA is interested in CC? Gee, I’m sure NY is frightened at this potential development.
Also, why the h would some team commit 10 years to Tex? Is that some sort of joke? So again, LAA apparent non-interest in Tex should also not be news. I would imagine any team talking with Boras would look him in the eye and say if you are serious, meeting is over, if not, lets talk real. Anybody in the business knows the Angels need hitting more than pitching, so they are not going to just run away from Tex, but they will if 10 years is non-negotiable. All teams will,,, oh, maybe not the nationals…
Do you think NY is shuttering,, oh no, we have some competition for CC services, what do we do now, oh no!
I would think the Yankees are not expecting a joy ride into landing CC. They undoubtedly are anticipating some highs and lows in the process of scoring CC. With that, they obviously have a plan in mind, and that plan undoubtedly envisions a scenario in which another team enters the fray legitimately, (not some BS offer like MIL). That plan, hopefully, includes a walk-away point, a final number if you will, that NYY is willing to commit to CC.
So if the Angels, the Dodgers the Giants or the Mets become interested. Fine, let them put their best foot forward and lay claim with a $ figure. If it bests a $150M offer from NY (theoretical walk away point), fine, let the other team have CC and NY needs to move on to play B.
Chill. Relax, have a cold one etc… it is still November.
Good news is always welcome . . . . .
http://www.nypost.com/seven/11.....140660.htm
Tim Clougher
I figured if I had you as an agent first, we could get enough buckage to hire Brian McNamee as a trainer. With him on our side, he might be able to ‘help’ us BOTH get into good enough shape for spring training ‘09. He could probably use the money now too.
You can add that I’m almost in David Wells’ condition too. A few more nights out for burgers & beers (we’ll call it about 40 more pounds) and I’m there.
Seriously though about 15 years ago I would have been interested in taking a casual infield practice at 1B once, just to see how it was with the big guns. I know I’d have been in way over head back then but it would have been be fun getting my glove hand stung by a few Jeter rockets. Forget throwing & hitting …. just fielding. Too old & slow now.
Like Giambi.
YankeeRay,
Why on earth would any team pitch to Alex Rodriguez if Nick Swisher batted behind him?
The Yankees arent going to sign both Manny Ramirez and Teixeira anyways.Also, Matsui makes $13mil in ‘09. The Yankees could never get fair value for him in a trade IMO.
Drive, who is going to protect Arod right now? Matsui? So my lineup could use a little tweaking but who goes behind Arod Posada? Anyway you cut it Arod gets no protection in our current lineup or in my fantasy lineup unless you flip flop him with Tex or Manny in which case the 6th hitter will always be left without protection. Arod would get pitched to since Manny would be pitched around to get to Arod and you can’t walk everyone.
As far as Matsui, you will never get fair value so get what you can and eat a little cash if you have to. He would be a throw away if you signed Tex and Manny. I personally think matsui is on the big down slide. I can’t stand watching him pull off the ball anymore. All he can power is mistakes.
Peter: some movies for the holidays?!
I think transporter 3 should be a good action movie, and Australia should be a good drama. Whats your choice?
I want to keep Phil Hughes. My biggest concern is how Phil comes out of everything that has already come down on him.
For being all of 22 years of age, this kid has gone from can’t miss prospect to being handed a rotation spot on a silver platter to pitching miserably and then being injured. When you think of it, that’s a lot of living in a short amount of time.
Unlike Ian Kennedy, I think Phil is going to have a long and successful career in the major leagues. It actually could be in his best interest if he were soon traded to a National League team. I’m just afraid in a couple of years we’ll see his numbers and regret trading him.
Brad, that same news was in the article Pete linked to in this very post this morning….. Link above to Tyler Kepner article.
“Thanks for the promotion, I just wanted to be a personal trainer, but hell I could be an agent.”
Dammit!! I wanted to be the agent. Hell i would have sold them on Ansky can actually get the ball to second if he ever caught the ball. He wouldnt give up the long ball being that his pitches bounce to the plate. He would beat Molina in a foot race to first(anyone could). Cant fight like Farns. But can take a punch if you put a Rocky movie on before taking the field.
So here it is. Either a personal advisor to Tim. Or i take on the personal trainer job and sneak you in some dohnuts/chips/candy/slim jims when Girardi isnt looking.
I’m on the fence with CC, do not get me wrong he is great and needed here being a Ace starter. But does he really want to pitch here?
Maybe Tex is the better move. Hell I’m not sure anymore, maybe I’ve been listening to way to much radio, sports writers garbage.
Boy lotsa stuff out there.
First — Cotts does a great job, but with current interest rates there’s no way in hell the deferred money (at low compound interest) reduces the value of the Santana contract by $ 14 M in present value. Maybe $ 2-3 M but no more.
Second — No one really knows what Cashman’s plan-A, B or C is… the point is we’rehere to debate the options for our own vicarious involvement. Why some feel the need to remind the world that we’re not making the decisions is beyond me.
Third — Teixiera is a fine player in his prime at a position of need for a lineup with needs. To me he should be the # 2 priority behind CC Sabathia. After CC it’s a conga line of risks with AJ, Lowe, Perez, Sheets, Perez and so on. I’d take the chance on Burnett because of his talent, but it’s not my money.
Fourth — Manny is a dog. /You know what happens to those who lay down with dogs, right?
Fifth — It is ridiculous to let prospects at the Low-A level to impact in any planning at the MLB level. Montero will be what he will be. When he’s ready they’ll find a place that he fits. It’s a question for 2011 or 2012 in all likelyhood. Austin Jackson is the only position player in the system who should be considered in the planning process.
Six and Last — I would not be upset by the addition of Adam Dunn… he would be a terror in the new stadium and would be no worse than Abreu in RF with more power and similar OBP. That either gives NYY excellent depth or the ablity to use Swisher or Nady in a trade.
one more thing, no one who watches “Access Hollywood” should be allowed to post on a sports blog.
The whole “oh, the Yankees can’t just keep throwing piles of money at everyone to solve everything” argument is getting really old. Teixeira is not Pavano, Kevin Brown, or Jason Giambi. He’s 28 years old, a proven superstar, the power bat the Yankees NEED in the lineup to hit behind A-Rod. Add in gold glove defense and a professional attitude, Tex is a guy the Yankees should break the bank for. So what if Matsui and Damon’s contracts don’t run out til next year? New York needs this guy now. If they are seriously planning on going forward with the lineup we have now then it won’t matter if we sign CC, Burnett, and then trade for Bob Gibson in his prime. The offense isn’t going to cut it, again. How do you lose Abreu and Giambi and replace them with Swisher? And that’s the trick to fix the Yankees worst offense since 1992? Give me a break. I seriously hope this is all posturing by the Yankees and their interest in Teixeira is real, they just might want to get a different sentiment out there in the market right now. Because if they seriously are passing on this guy without making an offer, they’re crazy. All huge contracts have risks, but a Teixeira signing would have almost no chance of backfiring on the Yankees.
SoS
I haven’t heard of anyone in the bigs being eager to fight Farnsworth, so maybe I’ve got the same stuff as the rest of them.
But if I was on the team I’d never lay down on them like Manny did.
Not that I’d ever MAKE the team, mind you. But if …
S.o.S.: You got it my personal advisor.
ANSKY this team is groing…
Yes it is, Tim Clougher … And pretty soon A-Rod will have it out for each of us because Madonna’s going to let us take turns on the merry go round.
One at a time of course. No offense.
No wait, she doesn’t look like she did when she was 27. Never mind, I’ll pass.
86w183:
I agree with what you say, and I respect it.
Manny may be a dog, but that dog is proven and can hit..IMO if anyone of the FA are gonna get big money, you get more for your dollar with him. this is just my opinion and he won’t be in NY as long…7yrs to CC, 8-10yrs Tex is a long time if they don’t work out.
Would anyone really be surprised if we find out in a couple weeks that Tex was Cashman’s #2 target after CC?
I wouldn’t. The guy isn’t going to announce that, especially to a Boras client.
and Boras knows we’re always in play and how well Tex would fit in our lineup and on the field. He won’t make any decision before CC signs. Once CC’s off the market (in NY or not), the truth about who really wants Tex and how badly will come out.
Who needs Scott Boras?
Tim Clougher’s the next super-agent.
“you get more for your dollar with him” until he decides he doesn’t want to play for you anymore and he gives you zero effort.
I can see him and Girardi clashing and he decides to mail it in and demand a trade. He’s a piece of trash that was given a gift he doesn’t deserve.
Training program
1.Bunt off a tea
rest and have some cookies
2.Run wind sprints(just 1)on a basketball court like the cable guy.
rest have a coke and a snickers
3.I hit bouncy balls off the wall with a racket that you try to field with a glove.
rest diet coke and pizza with bread sticks
4.Chasing chickens around for mobility. It worked for Balboa.
rest and have some chips
5.Watch Cinderella Man, after punch a bag for the just in case situation.
rest bon bons
Thats just day 1.
We can have all the debating and bantering we want……Bottom line is, the club better come up with a viable # 3 hitter…….There’s enough pitching to be had to improve the ballteam….I do reconize that CC is shutdown # 1 guy…..However Texeria is a once in a decade type of 1b man, and he’s young…..The lineup for 09 is spotty with flaws….
“Would anyone really be surprised if we find out in a couple weeks that Tex was Cashman’s #2 target after CC?”
I wouldnt be. Who would have thought we would have landed Damon?
Ansky,
I forgot to add b-12 to all those resting periods.
Is Madonna going to be the team’s maseusse, SoS? that’s a hard day’s training if there’s nobody going to help smooth out the aches afterwards.
If she is, I’ve only been on the program a little while and I want Time Clougher my agent to renegotiate the deal.
Tim, I want an upgrade to something younger than me (OK more like half my age which means 22) not something older than me.
Plan A – Sabathia and Burnett/Lowe
Plan B – Burnett and/or Lowe and Texieria
Plan C – Manny
Plan D – Perez/Sheets/Garland/Burrell
“First—Cotts does a great job, but with current interest rates there’s no way in hell the deferred money (at low compound interest) reduces the value of the Santana contract by $ 14 M in present value. Maybe $ 2-3 M but no more.”
No. First, this isn’t simply an issue of interest rates. Second, in terms of interest rates, today, Santana’s deal looks even worse.
Santana has a large chunk of his contract tied up in deferred money.
The primary reason why deferred money isn’t as valuable is because you need to apply a discount rate to any dollars earned in the future. That’s standard economics. A dollar earned tomorrow is not as valuable as a dollar earned today.
Santana’s deferred money is deferred 7 years from the year it was earned. That’s a very long period of time that the Mets are holding his money.
And Santana’s deferred money is collecting compound interest at only 1.25%. That’s an awful deal for him.
Right now while the Fed is cutting its interest rates, commercial banks just aren’t lending. And to get any credit you have to pay through the nose.
Santana is essentially giving the Mets a $5M loan every year that the mets are paying back at below market interest during a time when obtaining commercial credit is exorbitantly difficult.
That deferred money is a huge coup for the Mets right now and has turned out to be a very bad deal for Santana.
Im one step ahead of you Ansky. With this intense regime and knowing you would break down from day 1. We need someone much stronger than Madonna to get all the kinks out. I would try to find you someone like Mr.Mayagee to work some magic.
Also will be asking Arod to lend us his shrink to make sure you done quit on us. We all can use your uhh.. the money.
7up,
Why isnt c and d combined? I would be pissed if all we got this off season is Manny. Pitching is a must and unless Manny is Babe Ruth reincarnated. He wouldnt be enough.
c/d-Manny/Sheets and Garland. No Burrell.
“However Texeria is a once in a decade type of 1b man, and he’s young”
Pat,
When was the last time a pitcher like CC made it to free agency.
You’d have to go back to 1999 when Johnson signed with the D’Backs.
Tex is a terrific player. But it is much, much easier to get a good hitting 1b than it is a pitcher of CC’s caliber.
This off season alone they could sign Manny and stick him in left field and the #3 hitter issue is solved. Or they could sign Adam Dunn. Dunn is not as good as Tex but the distance between Dunn and Tex is smaller than the distance between CC and AJ Burnett.
And next year Matt Holliday is available on the market. No one close to CC will be available (Lackey will sign an extension with the Angels…).
They do need more hitting. They do need to particularly add run producers.
But getting CC for money only is a very rare opportunity.
Miyagi was the name of that movie character, SoS. If he had a 22-year old daughter you’d have a deal. For that alone I wouldn’t quit like Manny.
I saw the movie Midway on TV recently … I forgot Pat Morita (Miyagi)had been in that movie when he was younger.
CB,
I’m always impressed by your economics. I have a question.
If a ‘green” economy does indeed evolve in 10 years cauding energy costs and inflation to be low and the value of the dollar increases, does the statement ” A dollar earned tomorrow is not as valuable as a dollar earned today” neccessarily hold true?
In that scenario, wouldnt deferred money be more advantageous to the player than it would be in our our current state?
cauding = causing
CB,
Athletes are more interested in the way the salary looks i.e. the “Score”. The concept of present value of future cash payments would be over their pointy little heads (except Bond’s head).
Vrsce,
You’re right about it being over the athletes heads, but there aint nothing over Scott Boras’ head when it comes to money. That’s why so many player hire him.
It’d be interesting to see stats on how many FA’s have gone down in performance value after getting a big contract. How soon after, and by how much too.
I’m sure the rich baseball people writing the checks have started to take notes on this.
“A dollar earned tomorrow is not as valuable as a dollar earned today” neccessarily hold true?”
Drive,
Not sure if a green economy is going to lead to lower core inflation. It would be great if energy costs decreased but in as the economy transitions between fossil fuels and renewables its possible energy costs may directly or indirectly rise.
Also, a main driver of “inflation” is wage inflation. There’s a complicated relationship between creating this new economy and what will happen to upward wage pressure vs. productivity.
Anyhow, no matter what happens a dollar earned tomorrow will always be less valuable than a dollar earned today.
Look at it this way – the Mets are holding $5m of Santana’s money each year. If Santana even just took that money and invested it conservatively and got back a 5% yearly return he’s losing a considerable amount of money.
A dollar earned today gives you the opportunity to invest that dollar and make a return.
That’s something called the time value of money.
Ansky,
Damn Ansky. You will have enough money to get yourself those OTHER messages on your own time. FOCUS!! Next you will be asking for only green m & m’s. Speaking of Madonna. You are starting to act like a pri-madonna(i know its not the right spelling). Stay humble or im out.
my bad for misspelling the name. Wont be the last. I didnt know Pat(Miyagi)ever looked young. Miyagi doe Karate. Im surprised UFC hasnt tried that broken leg move yet. Some of those fighters are so young they wouldnt have ever seen the movie and wouldnt know what hit em. Daniel son never seemed to propell in the acting scene after that movie. Last movie i remember him doing was “the 2 youts” one.
Unlike most of the folks here on Pete’s blog, I really like Manny. I think it would be great fun if he were a Yankee.
But, I’m not sure I understand the argument for signing him now.
Signing him would not alleviate the need to sign CC and at least one more good free agent starting pitcher.
Signing him would require either trading Matsui or Damon, or moving Damon to CF. I’m very skeptical that we could get anything like equivalent offensive production back in a Matsui or Damon trade. I’m also skeptical that Damon can be an everyday center fielder. So, the net benefit Manny would bring is less than Manny’s stats alone would indicate.
Imagine an outfield of Manny, Damon and Nady. Defensively, that’s a train wreck. It would cut against what the Yanks are trying to achieve with the pitching upgrades.
Signing Adam Dunn would cost a lot less, and wouldn’t force contortions throughout the rest of the Yankee lineup. Assuming, of course, Dunn can actually play first base. I would not want to see him in right field.
CB — I understand the numbers, but I think you have to assume a pretty high rate of interest on the $ 5 M over 7 years (about 6% or better) for each 7-year period to get to the $ 14 M figure.
Based on our inflation history, assuming a 6 % return is excessive by quite a bit. the CPI has only reached 6 % once since the Carter Administration
With the books he gives to the gm’s about his players and the hype he brings them. Scott Boras should change his title from agent to promoter.
My Cousin Vinny was the ‘Youts’ one. Funny, SoS … funny.
By the way I’m no prima donna. I’ve never stood at the plate to watch where one of my home runs land.
That’s partly because I haven’t hit one. But at least I wouldn’t stand at the plate to while I watched whether a ball I hit would land past the infield dirt!
“CB– Anyhow, no matter what happens a dollar earned tomorrow will always be less valuable than a dollar earned today.”
CB, I don’t think that seems right. What about deflation? Then you’d rather have the dollar later.
Im so sick of everyone talking about nothing but CC all the time. HE ISNT COMING HERE MOVE ON! You are just setting yourself up for a big disapointment.
“but I think you have to assume a pretty high rate of interest on the $ 5 M over 7 years (about 6% or better) for each 7-year period to get to the $ 14 M figure.”
It’s not an issue only of interest.
Santana is incurring a significant opportunity cost in not being able to access that $5m to invest on his own behalf.
Or say to spend it the way he wants to now. Say he wanted to start his own charity for kids in Venezuela where he’s from. That $5M would be very useful.
Santana could invest that $5M is say emerging markets and potentially make a fortune.
He could decide to buy yen. Whatever – it’s his choice if he has the money now.
But it’s not – because the mets have it.
Interest is by far the most conservative type of return.
I can’t explain it much more than that over the internet.
Santana is losing a significant sum of money through that deferment.
And Santana could have put $ 5 M into the market and lost half of it by now! There is no guarantee of positive return on any investment, so it is a gross overstatement to imply seven years at 1.25 % is necessarily a “terrible” deal.
I bet most Americans would be thrilled if their investment went up 1.25 % in the last six months. Santana’s did!
KJ, if CC isn’t coming here, then I am. That’s all everyone is waiting for.
OK end of work day. Time to go home. Today’s was hard-earned. Good night all, its been fun.
blimpie, deflation turns everything on its head. It’s like non-euclidean geometry where you can’t assume parallel lines never intersect.
Imagine a deflationary world where the banks had to pay you to take their money. (You’d need a fairly substantial rate of deflation).
I keep hearing deflation is coming. Maybe the Angels are smarter than we know.
“That’s partly because I haven’t hit one. But at least I wouldn’t stand at the plate to while I watched whether a ball I hit would land past the infield dirt!”
Ansky,
Thats why i have you doing bunting drills off a tee. You’re going to bring back old school ball. Bunt for hits. Bunt to move a runner over. Squeeze bunt. Its in the book im making of all your possitives that you can bring a team.
Aaaand about my position. BTW,I want a raise!! “S.o.S. the promoter” will break the bank for you.
$50 dollars in the present is always more valuable than $50 dollars in the future. Theres no debate here, its just a fact.
Patrick– it depends on what you use it for.
If you bought $ 50 worth of Gas in late August you got a lot less gas than if you used that same $ 50 for gas today. If you bought $ 50 worth of CitiGroup stock sixh months ago you got a lot fewer shares than that same $ 50 would have bought yesterday.
Things do lose value. Investments do fail. That’s why it’s absurd for GB to insist that it’s a “terrible” deal for Santana to be putting away about 25 % of his earnings in totally risk free investments, assuring himself of six anual checks of about $ 5.5 Million beginning in 2015. It’s like buying T-Bills… low risk, low reward
CB,
Thanks for your explanation. But as all my college professors would attest, I enjoy questioning it. lol
blimpie brought up the topic of deflation, which could be entirely relevant here given the decrease in energy prices. Not sure if I agree with you that dollars earned right now are absolutley more valuable than a year from now.
Your Santana example is a good one to point out your argument.But I’d kill if my 401k was making as much money now as it was a year ago.
Patrick-
Let’s say instead of 3% inflation a year, there were 15% deflation each year. That is, today’s $100 would buy $115 one year from now.
Now, under that assumption, if I loaned you $100 today at no interest on the condition that you paid it back in full in one year, is that a deal you should take?
If the Yankees sign CC Sabathia, CC, Wang, and Pettitte make up a very reliable top 3 in terms of making their starts and pitching 200 innings. Joba Chamberlain is supposed to pitch 140 innings next year, say he pitches 6 innings a start, that’s between 23 and 24 starts, close to what a 5th starter would pitch if he was skipped regularly. Between Hughes, Aceves, Coke, and Kennedy, the Yankees should have enough pitchers to fill the 4th slot well enough. If there’s a serious injury, the Yankees have the prospects to make a trade to bring in a 4th or 5th starter.
AJ Burnett or Derek Lowe do not improve the Yankees rotation nearly as much as Teixeira would improve the Yankees lineup.
Bunting drills off a tee … now THAT is funny.
tex is the best first baseman in the league and young- is that not follow the plan of run prevention and getting younger? I think it is. How can we rely on posada to stay healthy, matsui to stay healthy and cano to do a complete 180 all in the same season.
The only reasonable expectation is arod having another mvp season. But the posada contract was for what he did, not what he will do and even the yankees brass could admit that. Expecting anything more than half a quality season out of posada may be expecting too much. Same goes with matsui – he is old and is expected to dh next year due to his horrendous knees.
He isnt the godzilla he once was. We should be banking on posada and matsui to give us very little and approach the offseason accordingly and then, hope for the best. These assumptions are almost ridiculous. What evidence do they have that posada can have a full recovery or that matsui can put up big numbers again? Or even that cano can become a number three hitter next year or even in his career.
The answer is none- no evidence whatsoever. Its a joke to think all 3 can be number three five and six hitters for an entire season bordering on insanity. Pete, I dont agree with this line of thinking and if the yanks are expecting comeback years from all three players, they are in for a rude awakening.
“Let’s say instead of 3% inflation a year, there were 15% deflation each year. That is, today’s $100 would buy $115 one year from now.”
Deflation isn’t really about falling interest rates or even about returns.
Deflation generally refers to a systematic fall in prices for goods and services.
It has to do with a contraction in the general economy.
One of the hall marks of deflation is that the money supply and credit markets often tighten. It can become very difficult to get a loan – that’s what’s happening right now.
During deflation it often doesn’t matter what the government sets its overnight lending rate at. It can go to zero and commercial banks still won’t lend or people won’t borrow.
So even in deflationary times having money in the present is far more valuable than having it in the future.
This is particularly true if the money supply is shrinking or the credit markets are dysfunctional.
no. 27, are you going to insist on talking baseball?
Where is an economics professor when we need one?
No. 27 — I agree. CC at the top of the list with Tex right behind. I’d happily take my chances with that club.
1. Chicago is officially out of any Peavy sweepstakes (Piniella announcing we don’t need anymore starters).
2. Peavy can be had w/o giving up Hughes.
3. It’s down to Atlanta and…Atlanta
4. Does Peavy really want to be in the AL?
So does that mean that Wimpy(popeye)was getting the better end of the deal by paying for the hamburger tuesday? Im confused.
The Yankees are going to have to sign an offensive player next year anyway when Damon, Matsui, and Nady are free agents. Are there any players available that will be nearly as good as Teixeira and will cost significantly less?
oh and matsui, damon and nady’s contracts expiring is all the more reason to spend more money this off season. They have 80 million coming off now and another good chunk of money coming off next season – so they can spend as much as they want now and still have money to spend next off season. I dont see how that is in any way an argument not to sign tex. If anything that only supports the claim that we should.
As far as I’m concerned the economics discussion is interesting and certainly has a sports component to it.
CB is right in that most of the time bank interest or TBill interest is much worse than you can get elsewhere.
My whole point was that it isn’t ALWAYS the case, and putting 25 % of your incomine into very safe investments makes a great deal of sense. I can assure you about half of my net worth is completely protected. And I’m glad that’s true since the other half got its ass kicked the last several months.
no. 27,
If I had to choose between the two, I’d rather have Tex than Matt Holiday.
CB-
That was my point. I think. In a deflationary environment, you can expect to buy more in the future with $1 than you can today. So all things being equal, you would want to hold onto it.
However, if deflation were the ordinary course of things, people would still need to borrow money today to do all the things people need to borrow money for in an inflationary environement.
So in that world, what would the interest rate terms of a loan be?
In an inflationary world, it’s equal to expected inflation + expected risk + desired profit. In a deflationary world, it would be the same formula, but expected deflation (a negative number) would be substituted for expected inflation (a positive number). So, you could get negative nominal interest rates. I think.
That’s why I asked for an economics professor!
Chris:
I am thinking to get a pitcher like Greinke, Hughes plus two other prospects not named above is necessary. I like Hughes a great deal. However, value must be given when someone like Greinke is being mentioned.
“It’s down to Atlanta and…Atlanta”
mel,
The peavy situation looks more and more like the santana one every day (without the presence of a third team like the sox driving up the price).
Atlanta seems like such a natural fit. But they haven’t been close. I’m sure Towers is counting on Atlanta getting shut out for CC, AJ, Lowe and possibly Sheets so that Wren comes back hat in hand.
However, I could really see Peavy winding up with the Angels as well.
The angels were one of the two teams Peavy said he’d accept a trade to in the AL. They have the pieces to get a deal done. I dont’ think Peavy would try to extort the Angels as he would the yankees as I presume he’d be willing to play in Southern California.
This is part of the reason why I think CC doesn’t make a lot of sense for the angels. Do they really want to tie up that much money in CC when they desperately need hitting and could trade for Peavy?
mel
November 25th, 2008 at 5:34 pm
1. Chicago is officially out of any Peavy sweepstakes (Piniella announcing we don’t need anymore starters).
2. Peavy can be had w/o giving up Hughes.
3. It’s down to Atlanta and…Atlanta
4. Does Peavy really want to be in the AL?
———————————————————–
I wonder if St. Louis or Milwaukee might get involved, now?
“If I had to choose between the two, I’d rather have Tex than Matt Holiday.”
Depends. If its a 4 year deal for Holliday(correcting your spelling mel)vs. an 8 year deal for Teix. Id go with Holliday.
I’m studying for my series 7 right now. Not interested in talking finance on a Yankee blog.
Let’s assume that Matsui, Posada are both healthy for the whole season and have career average years, Cano comes back and has a career average year, and there are no serious injuries to the lineup. Those are serious assumptions, especially from people that want to have 8 starting pitchers ready for spring training, but fine.
Abreu is being replaced by Nady and Giambi is being replaced by Swisher. Both those moves make the Yankees’ offense worse so even if Matsui AND Posada are healthy all year, AND Cano bounces back, AND there are no serious injuries, the offense won’t be that much better.
On the other hand, the rotation gets much better by just adding CC and resigning Pettitte. CC is better at the top of the rotation than Mussina, Wang is a better #2 than Pettitte, Pettitte is a better 3 than Rasner, and Joba could end up being the best pitcher in the rotation.
This doesn’t even factor in that CC (if signed), Wang, Joba, and Hughes are all expected to be solid pitchers for the Yankees for at least 5 more years, meaning Burnett or Lowe would probably be 4 or 5 starters. The offense has A-Rod, Jeter, Cano, and Swisher long term with no one in the minors close to being a solid offensive producer.
CB & GB7,
Well according to the fine folks here, the CC puzzle will be solved if there’s a CC sighting at MSG tonight.
SoS,
I knew you’d catch that! Manu back, Spurs back on track?
“it depends on what you use it for.”
CB’s original point is that the mets are deferring a large chunk of Santana’s money at a very low interest rate. If they were to give Johan the money up front he could invest it with little risk and a higher interest rate.
The bottom line is that money in the present is more valuable than the same amount of money in the future. That is extremely basic economics.
Bottom line–
If the Angels offer is true, then this race is over. He would be getting Santana money so the union pressure is gone. He will be the highest paid pitcher in baseball and gets to play on the WC.
Barring 7/$175 or some obscene offer, he will go to the Angels.
“That was my point. I think. In a deflationary environment, you can expect to buy more in the future with $1 than you can today. So all things being equal, you would want to hold onto it.”
This is why economies continue to contract during deflationary periods – firms and consumer defer spending and it becomes a vicious cycle for which monetary policy can become ineffective.
That said – none of this has anything to do with whether a dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow in the context we were discussing it – which was deferred payments.
No matter what you want that dollar in your hand today. Sure you might not spending it – but not spending it is very different from not having it. They are nothing alike at all.
Not having the dollar in your hand now, if nothing else at all, incurs a risk premium.
Santana is assuming the mets will be solvent in 7 years. Most likely they will be. But he can’t be certain. Most likely Lehman Brothers was going to stay solvent – that’s why money market managers agreed to buy their commercial paper.
So if some cataclysm happens and the mets go under Santana gets hosed for some of his deferred money. The mets declare chapter 11 and he lines up with all of their other creditors and gets pennies on the dollar if that.
Deflation definitely has something to do with whether you want to spend money now or in the future.
But it has nothing to do with whether you would want your money now or in the future.
This is particularly true right now – while the U.S. may be in for a prolonged deflationary period China or Brazil may emerge in much better shape.
Santana loses the chose of investing that $5M in china. He is incurring both a cost related to risk and a cost related to opportunity lost.
Deflation is tangential to this.
Teixeria/Burnett is the way to go
It was always the way to go, but now that CC is probably going to the Angels (if the report of their offer is accurate), it will hopefully manifest itself.
Tex and AJ in 09!!!!!!!
“I wonder if St. Louis or Milwaukee might get involved, now?”
St. Louis is another team I was thinking of. Players always wind up loving to play there. Not sure if Milwaukee would be as attractive.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens. The atlanta offers to date have been extremely underwhelming. Wren was really trying to drip Towers dry on that one.
CB-
I really wasn’t championing Drive’s or 86’s point. I’d rather have my money now too.
I was just getting a little bored thinking about the Yanks’ next moves in the absence of any new information whatsoever.
It seemed like a pleasant diversion but I apologize for the distraction.
I want CC and Teixeira, and I want them now!
Ginoblii!!!
All we need is TP back and we will be a team to reckon with. Right now we are slightly above average. Have to see if Manu has that explosive first step back.
Lakers vs. Spurs WCF?
Wave,
No need to apologize at all. Things are slow.
And it is related. Given how hard it is to borrow money right now – you have to be able to count on large revenues to spend on players.
At 6 years no one is going to insure Sabbathia’s contract.
If the Angels commit $140M to CC that’s a lot of risk for them to take on.
It would surprise me if they came that close to the real dollar figure the yankees are offerring.
I’d be a lot of their offer is in deferred money and is heavily backloaded.
SoS,
Just trying to make the playoffs. One game at a time.
You know who’s tough this season? The Cavaliers. If LeBronze wins a title for Cleveland, he’s so out of there in 2 years.
The funny part about the CC/Tex dynamic is that they could both end up on their preferred coasts (Tex to NY, CC to LA), yet neither team addresses their top weakness.
How are the Angels going to score runs? Their infield is some combination of Wood, Morales, Kendrick, Quinlin, and Figgins. Anderson is gone and Vlad is banged up and not what he once was.
And who is going to pitch for us after Wang? Joba? Pettitte? Aceves? Hughes? Garland? Kennedy? Our rotation without any FAs looks god awful.
We will score plenty of runs with Tex but will have to win 6-5 games with a patchwork rotation. The Angels will shut down plenty of teams but will never hit good pitching and have to win 3-2 type games. Both teams are still incomplete.
Ok, please excuse me if this has been addresed, but where is the link or the quote or ANYTHING that states CC is going to the Angels? I am not being combatative, nor shooting the messenger(s) just curious to see what information says or intimates that, thank.
CC (calorie consumer) is hoping that the Angels will come close to the Yankee offer, if they do he signs, if not he is a Yankee.
If they’re going to lose out of CC you’ve got to go for Sheets.
Speaking of the King. I thought he was going to be a free agent next summer? Come to find out its in 2010. People are going after him now? They all better hope that the Cavs degress in the next 2 years or it was all for nothing. Why arent they talking about Kobe being able to opt out next year? He should be the big ticket.
Mr. Exceptional
Exactly, also Lowe.
So CC is going West it seems. Now can we get Teixeira?
Frank Isola suggested that at the trade deadline in 2010 mid-season, the Lakers might trade Kobe FOR LeBron and agree to re-sign him.
Bob:
Nothing definitive but this was up this morning on MLBTR with a few articles
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/.....in-ta.html
I would sign Sheets and Penny. Have one pitch one half of the season and the other the last half. Penny starts off good and then gets hurt. In comes Sheets for the stretch run. Dont ask me who would be healthy enough to pitch in the playoffs.
Al
I hope so. If we don’t get a definitive answer after Thanksgiving weekend, then just move on from CC.
Time to move on to Tex and Burnett.
SoS,
The thinking is that as long as Dr. Buss is willing to field a good team, Kobe will sign a new contract.
Lamar is the one who is a free agent. He’s been great as the 6th man, which is really unfair for him in a contract year. He wants to stay in LA, but it would take a big paycut, which most would be unwilling to do.
LeBron loves New York so much, I’d say he goes there. I mean he incurs the wrath of Indians fans and has three New York shoes out. Three!
I’ve been catching up here, and the info that CB provided on the Santana-Mets deal – if true – is amazing. Why would his agent negotiate, let alone recommend him signing, that kind of deal? I realize that many teams use the deferred money route, but why agree to it, especially when they knew the Yankees were interested – who, if I understand this correctly, supposedly don’t do deferred cash deals?
If CC is getting appropriate advice from his agent, he must realize that signing at a discount with a WC team using deferred money will really cost him. If he really wants to play in Cal that much there’s not much one can do, but, to piss away that much money for his family….
I keep thinking of something I first read as a quote from the late George Young, the former GM of the football Giants – “It’s all about the money. Whenever they say it’s not about the money, it’s all about the money.”
Zolio,
Huh? That’s a headscratcher. I love Kobe, but I think he’s hard to play alongside. Pau can because he’s so easy-going (okay-soft) and Bynum’s a young pup yet. But Kobe’s being even more deferential this year with the ball, so as he ages I don’t see a problem playing with another star.
SoS,
Penny? That’s the best you can come up with?!
I have no idea how the conclusion was drawn that because CC showed up at a Cavs game (in a city in which he lived for 7 years), that it somehow shows he is close to signing to the Yankees or is on his way to NY.
Just wishful thinking and absurd logic. CC was in Houston 2 weekends ago, does that mean he is on his way to Atlanta to visit with the Braves considering he is already 1\2 way across the country?
Plus CC has been to NY every year, he doesn’t need LBJ to show him around.
Kobe is threatening to go over seas. I think he opts out and gets a much larger deal with L.A. or some Italian team.
Lamar is getting short changed and will be gone after the year. I still think he will be a starter before the year is over.
Lebron would be taking a pay cut to go there. So if the economy continues to take a dive(no more shoes)and the Cavs are the Beasts of the East. I think he stays. Dont count out the Pistons if he moves.
I want to sign Dirk AND Nash on 2010 and build the team around them.
The only place in New York that CC needs to see is New Yankee Stadium.
I wonder if A-rod is actually leaving his children on Thanksgiving to see CC, not Madonna?
Okay, I’ll stop.
I wonder if Kevin Long was able to undo the damage by Madonna when she taught him her swing.
Okay, now I’m really done.
We cannot let CC go to the Angels and Tex go to the Sox lets pull out of the CC bidding so he gets less money and focus on keeping Tex away from Boston.
“Penny? That’s the best you can come up with?!”
What did you want me to say. Trade for Vasquez(not a bad idea)? Everyone has already mentioned all 5 free agents that are desirable pitchers list.
“I want to sign Dirk AND Nash on 2010 and build the team around them.”
Yes 2 aging players thats smart. We need to sign Lebron and Bosh/Stoudemire in 2010.
Carl79,
I’ve seen Steve Nash and LeBron to New York. But by that time, Steve will be in a wheelchair.
Porter is having a hard time with Nash and O’neal needing different things.
EDUB,
Following some of the comments from the link you provided are very interesting.They give the Cali perspective.
One wrote:” The Cost Of Living argument is way overplayed. You cannot go to sites like the Wall Street Journal and use their salary calculators becasue they are not realistic. In my business I move people around the country all the time and this is just a straw-man argument. First, LA and NYC are comparable in cost of living. Second, Milwaukee is cheaper than NYC, but there is nothing to do there + the endorsement and hi-profile opportunities are greater in NYC. Third, Milwaukee’s offer had a lot of money deferred, making the real value of their offer more like $18 million/year. Fourth, it is likely that the Angels would also backload any offer with a ton of deferred money and I think this should be considered until proven otherwise.
The Knicks are not targeting Dirk and Nash. They are making moves in 2008 to go after free agents that will be entering their prime, not leaving it. Lebron, Bosh, Amare, and Wade will be the main targets.
It’s going to be hard for Lebron to turn down this offer. “Lebron why don’t we give you and whatever buddy you want max contracts so you can come to the Mecca of basketball to play for a coach you like and turn this franchise around and get those endorsement bumps that are written into your contracts?”
If you’re forced to go with Lowe or Burnett, I chose Lowe. He’s at least reliable.
Sheets is the sleeper though, definitely.
I’d be cool with Sheets and Tex. You definitely need one more starter though.
Dirk is soft. Wade,Bosh and Lebron are much better bets.
Arte Moreno is a self made man who doesn’t like to be played….the last thing that he will suffer is the game that Boras plays. When Arte says that’s enough and the Angels are on to something else, he means it; the signal is loud and clear, he is on to CC with Teix free to go to the AL East where he really wants to be.
More likely than not, IMO, CC will be an Angel, and the Yankees will do battle with Boston for Teix, through the machinations of Boras. Both teams know full well Teix’ preference is NY. If, by chance he does end up in Boston, IMO. the Yankees then sign Manny. Though most unlikely, Plan B “could” include signing both “if” no pitchers from the so-called “Big Three” are inked. That’s my opinion, FWIW.
CB, I truly understand the CC situation…..With his signing, I think the Yanks need to look at finding a bona fide # 3 hitter…….Texeria is a must in my mind……FA pitchers with his pedagree seldom become available on the open market…….
Hmmmmm…
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....e,-Dodgers
I didn’t see this posted earlier, and I thought it was interesting, since it runs counter to the opinions of most here.
“Chris, Boston Massachusetts: Hey Rob…you’re brian cashman. What do you do about Hughes and Kennedy? Commit, or pull the rip cord? I think Hughes is still very promising and people have rushed to judgment but I feel Kennedy is over-hyped under-talented.
Rob Neyer: I believe that one of them will win 14-16 games in 2008. I have no idea which one.”
I assume he means 2009 – but does he really think they’re equally likely to win that many games?
Need to correct me if I’m wrong:
Deadline to offer arbitration is December 1st.
A club receives compensation, Type A or B, if your free agent signs before December 2nd.
A player offered arbitration has until December 7th to accept or decline, and if they accept, they are considered signed, and if it goes to arbitor the salary can be no lower than 80% of the previous year. If they decline they are still a free agent. QUESTION??-If they decline and sign with another club after the 7th, then the club losing the player STILL GETS compensation. CORRECT??
Therefore expect Yankees to offer arbitration to Abreu. If he accepts he’s ours for no less than 12.8M next year.
Expect Sabathia to be offered arbitration as well as Manny and Teixeira, Burnett and Lowe, to name a few, therefore don’t expect much to happen in the free agent market until the winter meetings after December 7th!
Rumors abound, but it’s possible Teixeira wants to be on the East coast, and Angels will make an offer to Sabathia, then look to trade one of their surplus of starting pitching for the hitter they desperately need.
Teixeira could get the 10 year contract to go to the Nationals if it’s all about the money, but I’m guessing he’ll sign a 7 year deal with Boston.
Furcal, or Cabrera if signed by the Braves, will motivate them to make the deal for Peavy.
Burnett will accept a four year deal-Toronto, Baltimore, Braves, Yankees?
Lowe will return to Dodgers?
Manny to the Dodgers for 3-4 years?
What direction will the Yankees go if no Sabathia, Burnett, Lowe or teixeira?
It all kicks of Monday….
Torre talking to Pettitte…
What happened to “I only want to play in New York”?
Pettitte needs a skirt, he changes his mind more than Mrs. Exceptional.
How could Kay not know Peavy has a NTC and is not willing to pitch in the AL and NY? This information was out there a couple of weeks ago.
He keeps pushing for the Yankees to get him but failed to mention he has a NTC.
no cc-(hes playing the role of greg maddux) AJ and TEX!
Pat M,
I hear you on Tex. But I think they’re going to be choosing one or the other. CC or Tex. Hopefully they get the best outcome possible.
We’re lost in the frenzy of free agency. But the fundamental problem with the franchise remains unchanged – the lack of young players to fill in the roster as the veterans age.
That is the primary reason there are so many holes and needs to fill this winter and the lure of free agents calls again.
If they knew that Cano could be counted on to hit .310-.330 then things would look very different. Insteand he could hit .260 and get on base at a .300 clip. Too much uncertainty to count on him.
If Joba had gotten his expected 150 innings last year and they could count on him to throw 180 this year – then the need to take a risk on burnett is much less.
And in particular, the lack of position players in the system is really, really hurting the team right now. CF is as much a black hole now as it was last year. What will they get from Swisher?
If free agency goes badly – it’ll be because the team had little leverage and was in a tough spot because it didn’t have enough young, cost controlled players they could count on to be productive.
Happy LeBron day.
Guess no CC sightings at MSG.
CB,
You mention lack of position players to bring up. That’s one of the biggest reasons I prefer to grab Tex over a huge FA signing.
We have pitching, in spades. Not quite ready for prime time, but it’s in better shape than the rest of the farm.
That’s why you get the Tex kind of players when they become available at their peak. They don’t grow on trees.
“We have pitching, in spades.”
Does Kei get grouped in this spade talk?
No more 7 year deals to first basemans!! Havnt gotten over the former mvp we signed 7 years ago. We might need that possition for the youngster in Montero or the aging Jete,Posada and who knows in a few years if Arod might need to move their as well.
Spike Lee chatting with Donnie Walsh. Oh Lord
SoS,
Please don’t compare Tex to Giambi.
And I’m not holding positions for prospects. Not 1B, not CF.
Jete will go to the OF. Posada will catch or DH. We need real 1B. Swish is a good place to start, but he’d look great in one of the corners with Tex at 1B.
I won’t be sad if Tex goes elsewhere, but no one can deny that he’d vastly improve our our offense and defense.
Jeter is not an outfielder…never was…never will be
mel,
Go look at the numbers Giambi had before we signed him. They were absolutely sick. Tex doesnt compare to Oaklands Giambi. Yes he is a better fielder. But doesnt touch him at the plate. All im saying is that for all those years your signing someone. You better be damn sure they will produce for a long period of time. For that amount of money. He better be an all star for those years. Pujols for 7 yes. Tex no.
CB-
You’ll know the answer to this post earlier at 6:40
Need to correct me if I’m wrong:
Deadline to offer arbitration is December 1st.
A club receives compensation, Type A or B, if your free agent signs before December 2nd.
A player offered arbitration has until December 7th to accept or decline, and if they accept, they are considered signed, and if it goes to arbitor the salary can be no lower than 80% of the previous year. If they decline they are still a free agent. QUESTION??-If they decline and sign with another club after the 7th, then the club losing the player STILL GETS compensation. CORRECT??
“Pujols for 7 yes. Tex no.”
Good point except Boras wants 10 years for his client,
“We have pitching, in spades. Not quite ready for prime time, but it’s in better shape than the rest of the farm. ”
Mel,
I think that’s a perfectly reasonable approach.
I look at it a bit differently as the “supply” of players like/close to Tex is far greater than the “supply” of players like CC.
Tex is a terrific, well balanced player. But quite honestly – he’s not even close to being the best hitter available in free agency this year. Manny is better – by a significant amount. Now Manny is Manny so sure Tex is the much better signing.
But I think that illustrates how that skill set compares to CC’s. There is no pitcher remotely comparable to CC available this year. In fact I think you have to go back to 1999 and Randy Johnson to find a comparable player on the FA market.
In contrast, Matt Holliday is a free agent next year. Tex is better than Holliday – but it may not be by that much.
There is no pitcher even close to CC available next year.
A key factor here is the position Tex plays. 1b has the highest average production of any spot on the field. It’s generally the easiest spot to get a good hitter at – not for the yankees (which is largely Giambi injury related). But for most teams.
They could sign Adam Dunn this year and he’d be ok at first. Not quite as good as Tex but he’d help a lot.
If Tex played a premium defensive position I think the argument would be much different. Just my opinion.
There just no one remotely comparable to CC and there won’t be for several years.
It’s much, much easier to find players similar to Tex than it is to find pitchers like CC, particularly because he is left handed.
And left handed pitching is a big deficit in the farm system as well.
No right or wrong answers. It’s just about what kind of trade offs you think maximize the teams chances to win both short term and long term.
Yankee Trader,
No player is worth a 10 year contract. Not even our own. I was a little hesitant writing Pujols for 7 knowing he’s been hurting the last couple years.
If someone wants to go all Zito and over pay in years or dollars. Then we have to move on. Tex and C.C.’s teams got ousted in the first round this year. As iv said many times here before. It takes more than one player acquired to win next year. We’ve had Arod for his last 2 mvp’s and didnt go to the Series. Time to fill some voids on our team and not just one.
Any rumors out there concerning Abreu for the Cubs, Mets, others?
Wouldn’t it be interesting if he accepts arbitration with the Yankees. Least he’d make for the one year is 12.8 million. If he offered and accepts arbitration, I suspect Yanks won’t be looking for any more hitting, with a lineup possibly looking like this:
Damon CF
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
A-Rod 3rd
Matsui DH
Nady RF
Posada C
Cano 2nd
Swisher 1st
Bench:
Molina
Gardner
Hopefully Ty Wiggington
Ransom/ Itzuris
blimpie November 25th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
“CB—Anyhow, no matter what happens a dollar earned tomorrow will always be less valuable than a dollar earned today.”
CB, I don’t think that seems right. What about deflation? Then you’d rather have the dollar later.
————————————————————-
Blimpie, are you serious? If you get the dollar later, it’s still the same deflated dollar that you could have received earlier.
MLB contracts aren’t signed in real terms (e.g. pay me in one year the equivalent of 1mm today) so deflation is absolutely irrelevant.
There is no way that receiving 1 dollar in the future is worth more in net present terms than receiving 1 dollar right now.
CB,
What are your thoughts on maybe going after Halliday if we dont have a good free agent year? Rumors are they might be wanting to get rid of him. I know we are inner division. But if we blow everyone out of the water with a great package. Do you think they would still say no? We did get Clemens from them.
SoS,
In hindsight, Giambi broke down for very obvious reasons. And he had no other skill set to speak of.
CB,
I hear you, it’s just that Tex is a good way too get younger and athletic.
CC would be great, but I’d really hate going into the $150-$160M territory for him. And no one really wants to talk about it, but I’d think the Yankees would be loathe to do so as well.
If CC goes elsewhere, I’m fine with going with Wang. Undervalued and underappreciated by many. He’s no CC, but he’s been as productive as CC when healthy. He gave us plenty of wins. I don’t need complete games from my starters.
CC is good, great, but not a backbreaker for me.
“QUESTION??-If they decline and sign with another club after the 7th, then the club losing the player STILL GETS compensation. CORRECT??”
Yes – they get some kind of compensation in terms of draft picks depending three main factors:
1. How the player is classified by elias (type A player, type B..)
2. the record of the team picking that player
3. The number of players of any certain category a team signs (e.g. team pick 2 type A players)
It’s a bit complicated but that’s roughly it.
If Sabathia goes to the Angels, and Burnett and Lowe go elsewhere, list the next 5 free agent pitchers in order you’d try and sign
CB
Thank you, now, does anyone think Type A free agent Abreu will accept arbitration, effectively decreasing our need for another hitter?
Gotta go, but really quick:
Assuming that we signed Pettitte and struck out begging Moose:
1. Trade for Peavy (sans Hughes)
2. Sheets (if his scans are clean)
3. Hughes
4. Aceves
5. Garland
6. Randy Johnson (Mr. 300!)
7. Curt Schilling (j/k)
I’ve read Oliver Perez, but isn’t he a little wild?
“What are your thoughts on maybe going after Halliday”
He’s not going to be traded. I just can’t see that. There was only one casual report of that by Dan Graziano and Riccardi denied it vehemently.
I can’t imagine how much they’d get back for him. What separates him from Santana last year and CC this year is that he’s signed for the next two year at only $15M/yr.
To get that kind of talent for that money is phenomenal.
Cliff Lee may have won the Cy Young but Halliday was the best pitcher in the AL last year. Perhaps in baseball – close between he and CC.
I would trade any player in the organization in a package other than Joba and perhaps Montero in a deal for Halliday. Not even sure on Montero.
But I don’t think even if they wanted to move him that they’d trade him in the division.
Either the Rangers or the Dodgers would be in a good position to trade for him. Though I don’t know if he has a no trade, however, so the rangers might be out.
CB
November 25th, 2008 at 5:54 pm
“I wonder if St. Louis or Milwaukee might get involved, now?”
St. Louis is another team I was thinking of. Players always wind up loving to play there. Not sure if Milwaukee would be as attractive.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens. The atlanta offers to date have been extremely underwhelming. Wren was really trying to drip Towers dry on that one.
———————————————————-
Not sure that either team has everything that San Diego wants, but, they each have a major item that San Diego needs. Milwaukee has Hardy and Weeks and St. Louis has Schumaker/Ludwick/Rasmus and pitchers Wainwright/Mitchell Boggs as starting points.
1, Can’t compare Giambi to Teixeira. Teixeira is 2 years younger than Giambi and doing what he does at the plate w/o PEDs. Teixeira is also a switch hitter and hits to all fields so his average won’t be hurt by a shift.
2, CB, I would agree with your argument if I thought the Yankees could only sign 1 player. The thing is, they have almost $30 million freed up next year. If they signed Teixeira, 2-7 would already be taken care Jeter, Cano, A-Rod, Teixeira, Swisher, Posada. Austin Jackson should be ready for CF by that point. Sabathia, Wang, Joba, and Hughes should make a solid 1-4 in the rotation by then. Mariano and Marte would be the expensive guys in the bullpen. The guys mentioned above would cost about $160mil + the bench with the only holes being a 5th starter, and a corner outfielder, and a DH/Catcher that would be put into the bottom of a very good lineup.
No reason why the Yankees can’t sign CC, Teixeira, and Pettitte and keep the pay roll under $180 long term.
I’m going to continue posting this until I convince you all or it comes true, whichever comes first. Figure out the cash and look at the depth of the team. The outfield defense is not the best but it’s our only weakness. If you think we will come out with a better team than this you are nuts. Next year with the loss of Damon, Nady and Matsui we wil be headed to late 1960’s type of team. We WILL spend the money going into new stadium.
Interesting that Angels are potentially off Tex and on CC. They know they have the coastal advantage but will be hard pressed to pay CC with Lackey coming up next year.
They need Tex but so do the Yanks. We need an everyday 1b that we can lean on like we did Mattingly,Tino and Giambi. Only we will now have a much better defender than we’ve had in the last 7 years which will make our infield defense a whole lot better.
Tex is a pretty good runner and has a good eye which will fit right in the middle of our line up.
I am not as high on CC now as I was before. I like the Sheets idea and could live with Oliver Perez if it means we can get Tex. I also believe that Hughes needs to be in our rotation as the #5.
1- Sheets
2- Wang
3- Joba
4- Perez
5- Hughes/Pettite
With 88 mill coming off our books we just added back 20 on Tex, 15 on Sheets, 10 on Perez. We also added payroll with Swisher and Marte. So there is room for more additions. I could live with Petite and keep Hughes down so now we are at 60 mill added if we pay Andy 12mill.
I still see room for Manny 20 mill as our DH. Trade Matsui and eat some of his contract if need be.
Our line up would look like this:
1- Damon CF – let melky or gardener be def replacement
2- Jeter SS – not cf, enough with that talk already
3- Tex 1B – lock down for 8 yrs 165mill
4- Manny DH – bronx boy/ Sox killer, anything better?
5- Alex 3B – all time HR hitter in waiting
6- Swisher – RF – could platoon with Nady
7- Nady LF – could play Damon there and Melk/gardener in CF
8- Posada C – this is a must with Molina spelling
9- Cano – best 9 hitter in baseball
Bench 4- Ransom, Molina, Cabrera, Gardener. Do we need a PH ?
Pen 7 – Mo, Marte, Veras, Coke, Bruney, Ramirez, (Geise,Robertson,Sanchez ??)
Starters – 5
Line up -9
Would the money work? I think it could. With the money for Damon and Nady coming off the books next year and Matsui if they trade him we would be ok. Forget about an A ball first baseman. We all know that we need to win now with Jetes and Arod aging and the fact that NY will not wait for a winner in the new stadium. Please !
YankeeRay,
lay off the video games.
Has anyone addressed the Rosenthal rumor about Torre trying to pursuade Pettitte to join the Dodgers? Why are the Yanks taking so long in resigning him? He’s already said he wants to return – what is Cash waiting for??? Are the Yanks now luke warm on his return? Don’t we have enough question marks in this rotation? Is Pettitte now a question mark as well?
Rumors were Pettitte was looking for 16 mil for 2009.
Not sure he’ll get 16 mil. from McCourt.
I’m sure Torre is talking to him and would love to have him, he needs Andy.
Sunny,
Someone had a link to that. Maybe Pettitte is looking for the 16 mil he made last year and the Yanks dont want to pay him that.
Wow…look at that traffic.
All the dopey college kids are home for the Thanksgiving recess and making a mess of everything.
I say bring back the draft and put these whiners where they will do so good for the country.
But why haven’t they begun negotiations? From the sound of things, it seems like the Yanks remain pretty silent.
FACE TO FACE NEGOGIATIONS BEGIN NEXT WEEK….
What’s Joba’s innings ceiling next year? 150?
Ed – patience isn’t a virtue to some people
November 25th, 2008 at 8:27 pm
YankeeRay,
lay off the video games.
- Ed, I hate video games but I am a master trader in fantasy football and I could pull this off. Actually Ed, I’ve coached baseball most of my life and I really think this is doable. Many don’t like Manny but he obviously belongs in the AL and being from the bronx I think he would be ok here. I do think if Torre was still here that scenario would work better.
Either way I think Tex needs to be had and I think 25 mill plus for CC is too much for any pitcher.
Granted this article is from late September, but it was I found this interesting:
“Sign Mark Teixeira. With Jason Giambi’s contract expiring (he has a $22 million option that’s likely to be bought out for $5 million), the Yankees don’t have a first baseman in place for ‘09. Teixeira is the most complete position player on the market, bringing power and OBP from both sides of the plate and strong defense. Most contracts for players on the left side of the defensive spectrum are bad ideas, but Teixeira’s age (29 in April), durability (one DL stint in his career) and performance level make him worth the risk. The Yankees’ cash position means they can meet or exceed any offer to Teixeira, and using him to replace Giambi ($21 million in 2008) means that signing him would be nearly cost-neutral while improving the team’s first-base play by two wins. Signing Teixeira would be consistent with the Yankees’ approach to free agency prior to the Carl Pavano signing: getting the best free agent on the market, while staying out of the overpriced middle. This, and not Sabathia, is the key move of the off-season. There is no free agent like Teixeira.”
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
Tom, agreed. Tex is a must and if we miss on him it will be worse than missing on Beltran. My scenario plays for passing on CC and signing two for that price. Having a 25 mill plus pitcher will never work within the staff for obvious reasons. Having a 22 mill player like Tex just blends right in with our personel.
I just read the Pettitte to L.A rumor on MLBTR and threw up a little bit in my mouth. The Yankees aren’t seriously going to make this same mistake AGAIN, are they? I swear if they do, I’ll…i’ll….well ok, I won’t do a damn thing. I’ll continue to root for the team anyway. But it would be monumental idiocy on the part of the FO to let Andy get away. Are they really gonna quibble over a couple mil, just PAY THE MAN! Jebus!!!
The longer the offseason goes, the more I can say I honestly have no idea what the Yankees are thinking. Their plan seems to be CC and Lowe or bust. along with no upgrades to the offense. Now what happens if that doesnt work out which honestly I srsly doubt it will? Then they miss the playoffs, lose a bunch of money as a result and face years of financial ruin and non competitiveness.
I know its only November and I’m being highly reactionary here, but it really does seem to me like theyre sleeping at the wheel.
Heres a Question
Who is the biggest Free Agent this winter in your opinion???
Tom,
Just finished the SI article, which was good until he suggested to pick up Pavano’s option!
I’m not completely sold on having a 1st baseman signed for 7-10 years. Now if Teixeira were a gold glove CFer, that would be worth it. If Teixeira would come to us for 5 years with a higher annual salary, I might be OK with that, But what will you do with stud prospect Montero, who might need switched to 1st, or Posada, or maybe Jeter?
BBB,
I believe we got Damon late in the offseason. I wouldnt worry about the offense much. They will upgrade late if needed. I think everyone is waiting for C.C. to sign. Everyone after that will be a trickle down effect.
Maybe they think Pettitte cant stay healthy and will pitch in the high 4’s or low 5’s. Therefore they think a young cheap pitcher will do that or maybe better. Just play the devils advocate here. Alot like the end of Bernies days here.
“Here’s a Question
Who is the biggest Free Agent this winter in your opinion???”
That’s easy- it’s CC Sabathia at 290+ pounds and 6′ 7″!!
Or do you mean the highest ranked-which in some circles is Teixeira?
Yankee Trader,
Exactly my thoughts. I mentioned the same things earlier on this thread. Dont forget that Arod might need to move in a few years as well.
I wouldnt even give a center fielder that many years. Look at how banged up Griffey got running into walls and diving. Unless of coarse they have Abreuitus. Then maybe.
Derrick Lowe is one year (to the month) younger than Andy P. Boras is asking 4-5 years for Lowe; imagine what he would ask for Andy were he to be his agent, probably, 3-4, at least…and Andy only wants one year.
To me, this is a no brainer, especially in view of the “uncertainty” as to CC. IMO, this does not speak well of the “Yankee Braintrust”….sit down with his agent, negotiate the $$$$ and get it done. If not, he may be wearing Dodger Blue in 09. Andy is a very sensitive man..we’ve been down this road once before and lost out.
By far in physical stature CC would be the biggest.
But the latter of your post is what I was referring to.
In My Opinion……Mark Teixeira is the biggest FA then CC,Manny,Burnett.
By the way my Free agent list would have
Alicia Keys on top of it!!!
Trader, Good point. Teixeira is a better player, right now, then both Montero and Jeter. (Waiting for lightning strike me down…O.K. I’m safe). Montero COULD develop into a great player, but right now, he’s a catcher in high A ball and Jeter doesn’t have the bat to play first base.
Signing Teixeira is a move both for the present and the future. Having him under contract for 6 years-his age 29-34 seasons-would make him younger than Jeter, Damon, Matsui, and Abreu were this season when the deal runs out. Heck, I’d even go seven, if that’s what it took.
Damon signed on 12/23/2005
Jeter could always move to 3rd and Arod to DH.
Want a lefty pitcher? Want a power, OBP hitter, who won’t command 7 years?
Try this. Trade Matsui to Seattle for Erik Bedard.
Sign lefty Adam Dunn to DH. He’ll be good for 100 walks, 180 strikeouts and 40-50 homers playing in Yankee stadium, and won’t cost nearly as much as Teixeira. If Abreu accepts arbitration and Pettitte resigns for one year, you have this lineup:
Damon CF/ Gardner late inning sub
Jeter SS
Abreu RF
A-Rod 3rd
Dunn DH
Nady LF
Posad C
Cano 2nd
Swisher 1st
Wang
Bedard-health history much better than Burnett or Sheets
Joba
Pettitte
FA signing TBD
Live with the inferior defense in OF until 2010, when Bay, Crawford, Holiday, Ankiel are free agents.
I would think they already had phone conversations with Pettitte and there is a mutual respect. They had to wait on him last year. Im sure he wants whats best for the team and wants them to upgrade when possible. He did mention this year that he would only play for the Yanks. I see him as a man of his word. Im not worried about his end. It will be the Yankees that dont want him. In that case they better have a damn good alternative.
Pettitte talks to Torre? Rumor? Maybe, but it underlines the same stupid mistake the Yankees made last time Pettitte walked.
http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/s.....0?MSNHPHMA
The Yankees need starting pitching, Andy Pettitte wants to return to the Yankees on a ONE YEAR CONTRACT.
What is the issue here? Mussina retired, so that is not an option.
For the Yankees to do anything but sign Pettitte immediately is strictly dumb.
Pettitte is just doing his due diligence. If Cashman ignores him any longer, he will just go to the Dodgers. He also has leverage when his agents negotiates with Cashman and wants the full $16 million.
Cashman should have locked up Andy weeks ago, instead he makes him feel unwanted and puts him on the backburner while chasing and begging a pitcher who doesn’t even want to come here (CC).
Can you imagine a team with none of the big free agents or Andy/Mussina? I mean, would we even win 70 games?
I dont think Matsui gets you Beddard. If healthy he is better IMO. If they dont want to get rid of Beddard. Go for the next one in line ICHIRO for center with some prospects and Matsui.
SoS,
I hope you’re right on Pettitte because kind of stuff really pisses me off.
I was furious when they let him walk after 2003 when he clearly indicated a desire to return.
Its not like they’re signing him as their ace. They’re signing him to fill their GLARING need: Starting pitching.
A smart GM would have gotten Andy taken care of before the FA period even started. Even if we sign 2 big FA pitchers, Andy was still always on our agenda (or Mussina before he retired). So we would have had to sign him at some point anyway, he was never a ‘back up’ plan. He was apart of our main plan. Yet Cashman is treating him like a secondary option for no reason.
When did Andy mention he would only play for the Yankees? Looking at some quotes from Torre’s dinner, all he said was he would take a 1 yr deal and wanted to come back. He didn’t exclude any other teams.
LOL.
Where’s all the people who were bitching about Pettitte now that Moose isn’t coming back?
How’s that rotation with Wang and Joba looking? Kind of thin?
Jake,
I believe that Pettittes wife had something to do with him going to houston the last time as well. Folks. He isnt going to miss out on playing in the new Yankee stadium to go play in l.a. Its either here or he retires. He wouldnt do a Favre on us and finish his career in another uniform.
Just my opinion.
This could be a negotiating ploy from Pettitte’s agent to try and scare us into giving him $16 million. There was a quote in Newsday over the weekend that his agent refused to take a paycut. This could all be posturing.
Can you imagine a rotation with no Mussina, Andy, or free agents?
Wang
Joba – 120 innings limit
Hughes – 150ish innings limit
Kennedy? Ponson?
Coke? Aceves? Eric Milton?
Would they try and buy Rasner back from Japan?
Devils advocate,
You forgot to add re signing Pavano and Igawa in your rotation.
Relax people. We have money to spend and its burning a hole in the Yankees pockets.
#27 IN 09!!
I’m a little dizzy, but I think some of you were confusing deflation with devaluation. Nonetheless, one would always rather have the $1 now than later. The fact that one may squander that $1 is an altogether seperate issue.
And yes, Wimpy is getting a good value if zero-interest next Tuesday for the hamburger he eats today. It’s a deferred payment to the burger monger.
I hope they’re not letting Pettitte slip away thinking that CC will pitch on 3 days’ rest all season.
“When did Andy mention he would only play for the Yankees? Looking at some quotes from Torre’s dinner, all he said was he would take a 1 yr deal and wanted to come back. He didn’t exclude any other teams.”
You haven’t been paying attention. Andy has made it *VERY* clear that it’s the Yankees or nobody.
S.o.S.,
It doesn’t make sense to not go after the best all around player available in free agency over the next few years because A-Rod might not be able to play 3rd base in a few years or because a 19 year old could end up being a good 1st baseman.
3rd base is a position that lots of people have played late into their careers. A-Rod takes excellent care of his body, and when the time comes and as he gets to the last few years of his contract, he will DH instead of learning another position.
What to do with Montero? Well, try to keep him at catcher is the best option. If he ends up being too big to catch, move him to first base, and if he becomes a stud, bring him up as a DH or trade him to fill a need.
Bringing in a gold glove first baseman doesn’t create problems. It’s when you bring in players that can’t field any positions, like Giambi, that the roster starts to get screwed up.
“And yes, Wimpy is getting a good value if zero-interest next Tuesday for the hamburger he eats today. It’s a deferred payment to the burger monger.”
Thank you Nick(with southwest im sure) for finally getting me that answer. It was killing me to find out if wimpy was ripping off popeye and friends. For the money they’re going to pay him. He will need to probably pitch complete games every other day.
Ill make sure to ask you where to go with the family on my next vacation.
Good for Andy if he wants to go join Torre in LA.
He gets to go to a place where he is actually wanted to a playoff team, and in a huge ballpark and league where he can probably put up excellent numbers.
It’s probably a leverage tactic by the Hendericks’ bros, but it actually makes a lot of sense.
I just heard on the local ESPN radio sports show on my way home that the Angels are offering CC the same contract as the Yanks, minus 5 million…..Take it for what it’s worth….
K-Zone,
That’s what I’m wondering too. Never heard him say it’s the Yankees or nobody. Last year he did, not this year.
Maybe it was, but he could always change his mind if he feels disrespected and Torre sweet talks him enough. We’ve all changed our minds before if the circumstance forced us to.
I’m sure I am in the distinct minority and know it will not happen, but I would (i)sign Andy, (ii)pass on revisiting “Pavano and Wright II”, and (iii)add the two Big Bats. Assuming Cano will be the Cano of 06-07, and then some, and with the addition of Swisher, the “inconsistency” problems of 08 have a very good chance of being resolved. If A-Rod doesn’t have a season for the ages with Teix in front of him and Manny behind him, he never again will.
The starters would then be:
Wang
Andy
Joba
Hughes
Coke/Aceves
“Yankees think the runs will be there”
Maybe if they eat a lot of green apples.
ariel,
You are not alone.
Torre is a father figure to these guys and is a master at recruiting and is a powerful voice. Don’t be shocked if Torre made Andy change his mind about only pitching for the Yankees.
You can’t go into the season with 3 of your 5 rotation spots allotted to kids, two of them unproven kids. And Joba on a 120-130 innings limit.
If we go that route its because we lost out on all the FAs and we had no choice, not because we planned it like that. But there is a greater than 50% chance that our off season plans do collapse and we do have a young rotation again.
If Burnett/Lowe want 5 years, forget it.
I should add to my preceding post that it is assumed that CC will end up wearing other than pinstripes presumably in Angel attire.
The thing I’m concerned about is how lukewarm Cashman has been about Teixeria.
Every quote he has given out this winter has talked about how we need 2 free agent pitchers and shore up the rotation, and he keeps making excuses for last year’s offense, citing injuries. The scariest part is if he actually believes that.
A decent GM can continue the hunt for starting pitching as the season progresses and find something, if what he has doesn’t work out. To over pay and over extend for AJ and/or DL is not the answer. I would rather initially go with what I posted as to the starters, and look to a very strong lineup to carry the burden, with adjustments on the fly….I don’t really see a plausible alternative IMO.
4×4,
2 words: “Bubba Crosby is our center fielder”.
I’ve always maintained that if you want CC, you must give the 7th year.
7/$165 probably needs to be our next offer.
“I just heard on the local ESPN radio sports show on my way home that the Angels are offering CC the same contract as the Yanks, minus 5 million”
If that is their offer, depending on how much is deferred/ back loaded, the yankees might have to offer a seventh year to the deal – 7 yrs/165M.
If the total package from the Angels is $135M then I don’t know if increasing the offer to 6yrs/150 would be enough.
They could try – got to 6/150 and see if that’ll do it. That would be $15M more – if the angels offer has deferred money the yankees offer could be $25M real dollars more. Don’t know if that’ll do it.
Let’s see how that rumor pans out. Haven’t seen it reported in other sources yet.
the players will not be happy if we miss out on burnett
“the players will not be happy if we miss out on burnett”
The players wanted Joba to stay in the pen.
thank god we have 2 excellent football teams in NY this winter
this hot stove season is just depressing
CB,
Exactly. The players are short sighted… they want to win now and that’s it.
They don’t care how bad that contract will look in a couple of years or if he turns into another Pavano. Just like they don’t care if Joba could be a good starter, they want a lock down pen.
4 X 4,
We cannot be deluded or deceived by the gamesmanship that occurs this time of the year. There are many variables that come into play, and a good GM must not appear over-anxious…tho the Yankees certainly did as to CC, AJ and DL.
If Andy doesn’t take a paycut and wants to go to the Dodgers, then as Michael Kay would say
“SEEEEEEEE YYYYAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!”
They’ve faced a lot of pitchers and they want AJ on their team. They don’t want to face him 5 times a year. They’ve said they don’t feel comfortable against AJ. That’s the utmost compliment a batter could give a pitcher.
I hope my Nets can even be competitive tonight against the undefeated Lakers
SoS, I really hope you are right about Andy. I hate to be one of those “sky is falling on November 25th” people, but it just seems like such a no brainer I don’t see why it wouldnt or shouldn’t be done by now. I believe that Andy was being honest when he said Yankees or retirement, but that was before the Yanks started acting indifferent to his return. MLBTR did make a good point in their blurb, that he has a history of moving on if he doesn’t feel wanted. So I guess that is my major concern.
I do think you’re right about the offense. I don’t expect Teix unless we strike out on CC, but Cashman is probably just being stealth right now. I doubt he actually plans to stand pat.
In a way, it would almost be a relief to move on to negotiating with Teix. He’s so much less complicated than CC. Just offer the most money, and we get him. None of this, trade for Mike Cameron and send in Swish and LeBron to negotiate on our behalf cause we’re not located on the West Coast. I do admit it rubs my Yankee Pride the wrong way that we have to beg him to play for the greatest franchise in sports.
“2 words: “Bubba Crosby is our center fielder”
Big difference is that Swisher is a very legit MLB 1B and Bubba Crosby was a fringe major league talent better suited to the International League. Other big difference is the availability of one of the games best pitchers.
Anyway, hopefully these Pettitte rumors will have the exact effect his agent probably wants him to have – a contract from the Yankees tomorrow.
Players lobbied for Santana last year too, to no avail. Then it was Joba in the pen, now the new phenomenon is Burnett.
Cashman doesn’t care what they think. As a GM, he has to be wise enough to block out fan/player noise and do his job.
November 25th, 2008 at 10:27 pm
“I hope my Nets can even be competitive tonight against the undefeated Lakers”
Lakers have one loss against the Pistons.
“Who is the biggest Free Agent this winter in your opinion???”
That’s easy- it’s CC Sabathia at 290+ pounds and 6’ 7”!!”
Wait just a second though, isn’t Ponson a FA too? Let’s not sell Sir Sid short (er, small?) here!
It looks like Cashman may have played right into Boras’ hands. If “Plan B” (no CC) comes into play, Boras knows full well the prime target must be Teix, and that’s where Boras will ring the $$$ bell this year. He probably forced the issue with his outrageous requests for Lowe, knowing full well that there would be no takers and that Lowe “probably” will end up back in Boston.
Everyone knows Teix prefers the AL East, namely NY, and by jerking Moreno around for a month or so, he forced his hand. “If” CC indeed signs with the Angels, Boras has accomplished what he wanted to….Teix is now the Yankees main target; he must be and Boras knows that.
Any Yankee player who would rather Cashamn get AJ than CC deserves to have his bobblehead face the wall.
In order for us to fit Teixeria into our team, we have to trade one of our OF’ers or make Damon the full-time CF
Then it would be Nady LF, Damon CF, Swisher RF, Teix 1B, Matsui DH.
It’s not like the Damon situation where there was an obvious need and nobody to fill it but Crosby. We just traded for a 1B and have a glut of OFers and DHs. We need Teixeria but we have to make corresponding moves to get him, just like Boston does. I honestly don’t mind Damon in CF, but I doubt Cashman wants to go that direction.
“Everyone knows Teix prefers the AL East, namely NY,”
Everyone knows this? You don’t know it. I don’t know it. Nobody posting here knows it. Teixeira and Boras probably know it, but that’s about it.
Did the Angels actually submit that Santana-esque offer to CC’s agent yet?
Or is it speculation just like there was about the Giants/Dodgers making offers last week that never materialized?
Teix is a Boras client; he prefers the biggest checkbook. Period.
Again, though, in a way after all this CC stuff that is refreshingly uncomplicated.
“Any Yankee player who would rather Cashamn get AJ than CC deserves to have his bobblehead face the wall.”
Or be forced to be in Ocean City, Maryland in November.
What gives with that?
Hey if the Knicks make another trade soon with the intention of opening some salary cap room for LeBron in ‘10, can we somehow sneak Kei Igawa into the deal?
If we play our cards right, we could get Albert Pujols for Igawa and a Stephon Marbury.
How was it a monumental mistake to let Pettitte walk after 2003? Looks to me like the Yankees knew exactly what they were doing, as Pettitte promptly got injured in 2004. Plus, there would be no Phil Hughes had they resigned Pettitte.
It may not be a monumental mistake to let Pettitte walk after this year, too. There’s a high probability that, at age 37, he will get injured again, or just completely crap out. I’d rather have the 17th pick of the draft, and potentially another Hughes, than that.
So how exactly does CC help the Angels? They were 3rd in the AL in ERA last year.
Their infield consists of some combination of Quinlin, Morales, Figgins, Woods, Kendrick, Aybar.
Garrett Anderson and Juan Rivera are FAs, Vlad is banged up and not what he once was.
How are they going to score runs?
Simmons stop shooting
Pettitte’s elbow was toast when the Yanks let him walk after ‘03. It was a wise move a the time.
We may have to throw Kay in the package with Iggy and Starbury. Russo is already on the move – here comes Albert!
Yi not liking the Spaniard…
Andrew,
Agree 100%. I’d be more than happy to take the Dodgers 2 draft picks next year.
If we don’t get CC or AJ, we’re going to be a 3rd place team next year anyway… so why even re-sign Andy? Might as well fully rebuild.
If the Yankees are serious about Run preventing defense they half to figure out another plan for Jeter. CF? LF with Damon in CF? First base with Swisher in center. Then sign Furcal or Orlando Cabrera
Tim Duncan Jr. w/ 8 pts.!
The trick may be to tell St Louis GM how smart Cashman looked in ‘04 when Pettitte was ’set free’ secretly because his elbow was gone.
“Hey … do you KNOW that Pujols’ elbow will ever heal properly? We’ll throw in Igawa’s salary to boot!”
“Agree 100%. I’d be more than happy to take the Dodgers 2 draft picks next year.”
It would only be one Dodgers draft pick. The other pick is a sandwich rounder. Further, the Yankees would have to offer him arbitration. As he’s only looking for one year, he may well accept. Then he’d get somwhere in the $14M range from the Yankees in arbitration as I understand it.
If you’ve ever had to spend time in OC in July, you wouldn’t knock it in November. Although of course the summertime does have a couple advantages.
But the golf yesterday was spectacular. And the course was almost entirely free of golfers.
I’m trying like hell to conjure some deal where we can include Igawa in a package to get Pujols and BJ or Justin Upton, all so we don’t need to get involved with the Tiexiera plus Sabathia economics.
It might take a few minutes to get “in the right frame of mind” …. anybody got a light?
They need to pull Lopez before stamina becomes an issue and he gets into foul trouble.
Nick:
Did a lot of time in OC in June/July in my high school days, but going a little down the road to Bethany and visiting OC as needed always seemed the best bet to me. Little piece and quiet on vacation can work, and OC doesn’t usually afford that in the summer.
Thought it was cold as hell there til yesterday? Golf?
Pete Abraturkey -
It’s because he doesn’t want to come here. I think that’s pretty clear. We trued to bribe him with $$ and he still didn’t budge.
OK I got it I got it I got it …. think about it …. twelve outfielders. All midgets. Play them all. All at once. Think of the OBP’s these guys would have!?!??!? WOOOOAHHHHH!!!!!
the 80% rule in arbitration doesn’t pertain to free agents like Pettitte. Only players under team control like Wang can make no less then 80% of their pervious seasons salary.
“The club’s salary offer to a player under its control may not be less than 80% of the player’s total compensation from the prior year, and may not be less than 70% of his compensation from 2 years earlier. These rules, however, do not apply to free agents who are offered arbitration.”
*peace rather piece
Freudian slip
Pujols can knock them all in because the other pitcher will be laughing his but off and throw a meatball for King Albert!
No wait … that’s Prince Albert. In a can. With 243 midget RBIs.
KING James will be with the Knicks.
“Anybody remember that check swing on Drew in the 8th against the Rays, I cant believe the ump made the right call.”
Hey Abraturkey….go post on yankeecrybaby.com
Fredo, it was in the 50’s and sunny, course in teriffic shape. Wore a light sweater and never had to put on my windbreaker over that. Today wasn’t as good, the course was too soggy from overnight rain, but still fun.
I’m sure October would be better still.
Brook Duncan .(coughs) I mean Lopez is looking Duncanesque.
NY Post is running with the CC/Angels rumor as well as Burnettt narrowing his choices:
“The Los Angeles Times reports: “The Angels, unwilling to meet Mark Teixeira’s desire for a 10-year contract, are in discussions with CC Sabathia and could offer him a contract that approaches the $140-million bid extended to him by the Yankees”
“The Baltimore Sun reports: “Free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett has narrowed his primary focus to roughly a half-dozen teams, and the Orioles remain in the mix.” Also beleived to be included are the Yankees,Red Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies and Braves.”
youk
November 25th, 2008 at 11:12 pm
“Ya know Pete,
I never thought of Pedey that way. Maybe he did use PEDs.”
Not the real youk posting here!!!!!!!!!!
There are quite a few people on this board who haven’t learned a darn thing since the dynasty years.
Those teams were great primarily because of their starting pitching. They have not been back to the World Series since their rotation took a huge tumble after the 2003 season.
The dumbest thing the Yanks could do if they lose out on Sabathia is responding with signing Teixeira or focusing on offense.
This strategy hasn’t worked since 2004. Why does anyone think it’s going to work now?
What did Einstein once say?
“Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”
They Yanks need to focus on the rotation. If they can’t land Sabathia and/or Burnett, there’s a chance Cashman could swing a major deal for someone else.
Settling for the Ben Sheets and Oliver Perez’s of the world as Plan B simply because they are available is like choosing between eating liver or dog food for Thanksgiving dinner.
They’ll need to find another way.
Focus on the rotation and defense and worry about offense later.
If people are dead set on watching this team miss the postseason again in 2009 – signing Teixeira as a backup plan for losing out on Sabathia is the perfect strategy going forward.
It all starts and ends with starting pitching. You’d think some fans might’ve actually paid attention those years they were winning rings.
Forget Teixeira. It’s a loser strategy.
Tim Duncan and Harris are putting on a show
pettitte talking to Torre more then once…
ouch if he left for LA that would be a classic double cross.
they gave him 2 yrs $16 mill. he said weeks ago it is the Yanks or nothing, Andy I thought you were a man of your word????