If you are there -

Yes, indeed we were in Disney World this week. Alas, we were not at the Magic Kingdom the same day as Johnny and Family, if in fact that photo was from this week. I can tell by the color of the sky in the photo. The only non-blue sky day was Tuesday, and we were at the Disney Hollywood Studios park. (It rained that morning, just a little.)

Had I known JD was going to be there, I would have begged – BEGGED – my husband to switch our itinerary so we could do a Damon watch! (However, we were with a group of 21, so I probably would have been at risk of a total mutiny against me!)

So no news on the Hot Stove front. I guess that’s good. I suspect it will begin heating up next week. Hopefully, anyway.

boston makes the right moves,the yankees do not.

we get nady,they get bay,we get pavano they get becket,we get igawa they get dk.

cashman has become too conservative & thinks too much.

it is one thing to make moves & lower payroll but all these crappy moves & payroll is still climbing.

the yankees always buy high & sell low.

arod got his contract after an insane year & should not be getting 27-30 million a year for 10 yrs & how is jeter getting paid 19 million a year? ,posada 4 years? absolute insanity.

burnett,sheets are huge risks & should not be signed.i would rather have pettitte,lowe,perez,at least they take the mound every 5th.

tex imo is worth the money,he gives us more wins than burnett,sheets.

sign cc,tex,lowe/pettitte,trade swish or nady for a cf or pitcher and call it an offseason.

178 million payroll after signing cc,tex,lowe.

figure 10 million for arbitration raises=188 million.

trade nady/swisher/matsui/damnon/bullpen arm & we will be at 180 million with tex at first base & cc & lowe.one or two of the above not all of them.

Warren Buffett is the guy. There’s a division of Berkshire Hathaway that deals with mega-catastrophe coverage where premiums are in excess of $1 million dollars per year. They insure that which others won’t but it’s not cheap. They were the company that underwrote A-Rod’s Texas contract. Depending on the player involved, the premiums are sometimes so cost prohibitive that it is sometimes worth the gamble instead of the premium though. I read about it years ago but I think it was 15- 20% of what the estimated payout would be.

———————————————————-

Mega-catastrophe insurance? The perfect company for Carl Pavano.

A 300 lb. pitcher who doesn’t have the stomach sounds like an oxymoron to me.

Warren Buffett is the guy. There’s a division of Berkshire Hathaway that deals with mega-catastrophe coverage where premiums are in excess of $1 million dollars per year. They insure that which others won’t but it’s not cheap. They were the company that underwrote A-Rod’s Texas contract. Depending on the player involved, the premiums are sometimes so cost prohibitive that it is sometimes worth the gamble instead of the premium though. I read about it years ago but I think it was 15- 20% of what the estimated payout would be.

Theo has his aces in Lester, Beckett, and Dice-K. All 3 are strikeout machines, 200 inning horses, and big game pitchers. All he needs is an innings eater to round out the back like Lowe and they’re set.

I will say many stats are based on theory and not actual practice. It does seemed flawed at first… but upon thinking about it, here’s what I came up with.

Last year, Matsui made a terrible play that eventually lead to 7 runs. Obviously, the pitcher contributued to this (after the error). Matsui may have personally been resposible for 1 or 2 runs. But in a defensive metric, he gets ‘credited’ for allowing the ‘typical’ amount of runs that score on an OF error, which is 0.7. So, in actuality, you and I watched the game and saw Matsui cost us 2 runs. Conversly, if he made an error and no runs scored, he still gets ‘credit’ for allowing 0.7 runs to score. So it’s not based on actual game situations.

But maybe that is fair. Matsui made an error. It is just random coincidence that there were 2 out, and men on, and people actually scored, instead of a 3rd out recorded. If another OFer makes the same error, but no runs score, should he get a break? And not be ‘credited’ with some amount of runs scored?

So it makes some sense. In measuring a players ability/effectiveness, why reward/penalize him based on the game situation?

I am a believer in Stats, but I must admit, the more I understand many of them, the more I question how accurate they are. Stats have value, but as you said, some stats much more then others. It would be nice if each stat had a published ‘fuzz’ factor.

I myself believe, that because a position player plays 155 games, that he might contribute more then someone who plays 32 games.

I will say that in terms of CC vs Tex, I have an opinion, but no crystal ball. I consider the following.
1) Greater chance of CC getting injured and losing effectiveness.
2) The Yankee farm MAY have a number of MLB pitchers who are better then replacement level. Conversely, we have few position players
3) I believe CC is more important then Tex is 2009. But 2010 and beyond? I’m not sure. Wang, Joba, Phil could be a very good 1-2-3. Next year we don’t have have ANY OFers signed. I don’t consider Nady (who will be an FA) or Swisher. If we get Tex, Swish becomes an ‘average’ OFer, and we have 2 slots to fill.
4) If APPEARS CC doesn’t really want to pitch in NY. Does this matter? Did it effect RJ?

Also, CC has been much better his last 2 years. Is this what will will get over the next 6 years? Or are they his ‘best years’ and never seen again?

It is a tough call. CC, I think, represents more risk/higher reward.

The Yankees have MANY holes to fill after this year. I hope we are not sacrificing the future for ‘we gotta win THIS YEAR!’. Next year, our (position players) team is ARod, Jeter, Cano, Posada and Swisher. ARod is good. Jeter? We hope. Po… if he isn’t a C, his position value as a DH is not that great and hurts flexibility. Cano and Swish? We can only hope they play up to their talent. But even if all 5 of these guys are good, we are still short a bunch of bats.

Here’s my bottom line philosophy… and one I hope the Yanks follow. I like FAs and trades where we get good value. Even though Swish is not a great player, it was a very good deal because we gave up very little, we bought low, he is young and has upside. If all our aquisitions are this good, regardless of the ‘position’, the team has more value and gets better. If we continue, out of ‘desparation’ to overpay (in $$ and years) we eventually get worse.

CC at 6/$130 is overvalued.
I think Tex can be had for 8/$150. That’s overvalued too, but not as much, and a slightly safer bet.

Bottom bottom line? My crystal ball is broken, so I just hope Cashman is smart, our team gets better, our talent plays better and smarter, and we get back in the PS.