Live video chat at 1 p.m. today
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Do you have questions about the Yankees? Do you want to win fabulous prizes?
Of course you do. So head over to our Mogulus channel at 1 p.m. (ET) today for another live video chat.
With the able assistance of the sports editor, I’ll be on the air for at least an hour and all subjects will be on the table with the Winter Meetings coming up Monday.
Catch you then.
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on Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 10:09 am by Peter Abraham.
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Peter Abraham
Pete,
Prizes? Sleezy way to hook us!
GB7,
Have you seen J-Alba’s stats lately? 9 appearances. 9 hits in 9 innings. Zero runs.
mel
December 4th, 2008 at 10:20 am
Pete,
GB7,
Have you seen J-Alba’s stats lately?
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Unless she’s had plastic surgery, I’d guess they’re still the same? 34-22-34?
Oh….You mean Jonathan Albaladejo? Is my face red?
Sorry if this has been posted before…
It’s a July 2007 article from a San Francisco publication. You’ve got to think that CC (and wife)are hoping the Giants can come up with something acceptable.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/07/04/HOGA7Q75RG43.DTL
That was really funny GB7. Please don’t tell me you know Jessica Alba’s measurements off the top of your head.
Patrick
December 4th, 2008 at 10:44 am
That was really funny GB7. Please don’t tell me you know Jessica Alba’s measurements off the top of your head.
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I don’t discriminate between sexes. I study all important stats.
That’s classic – Decembers post of the month!!
“Clare: This is a blog and Pete’s discretion as to what he wants to write – criticism, opinion, or otherwise – is his and his alone. If you want the black and white journalist Pete read his columns in his daily newspaper –”
It is a public forum and both Journal News and Pete benefit commercially from it.
Clare and others have as much right as Peter to express their views.
Cash is on his way to Cali to talk to Boras today..
Do you even think Tex will be discussed? Or do you think it is exclusively about Lowe?
I know all reports indicate that if the Yankees sign CC, that they will not sign Tex, but I still hope for a miracle..
What if the Yanks land CC and Lowe and Burnett go elsewhere? Would we be after Tex then?
Also, do you think 20m for Tex is too much an offer? I think 10 years might be, but 20m and 8 would seem like a bargain to me..
anyone..?
I’m glad I’m not the only one who initially thought Jessica Alba when I saw J-Alba. XD
It’s a July 2007 article from a San Francisco publication. You’ve got to think that CC (and wife)are hoping the Giants can come up with something acceptable.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/07/04/HOGA7Q75RG43.
It seems a bit curious that Cashman will be “round tripping” to the WC to meet with Boras when he could have waited until Monday to schmooze or do some work with Scottie at the forthcoming meetings The pundits I have read seem to think the obvious….D Lowe and the other offers he has received. Could it be, however, something more immediate given the Sunday deadline for arbitration and Scottie’s two Big Bats??
“If” Teix’ preference indeed is for the East Coast and no one bites before Sunday, arbitration may make sense as the dollars will be big. He would then wait a year when the economic winds may be more favorable; Teix will still be young enough for the long term deal Boras seeks to remain appealing.
As to “the other guy”, the waiting game may not be favorable, for obvious reasons…..Boras suspects that the Yankees and the Dodgers are the only real shots, with any big score likely limited to the Bronx, so that play is more immininent (conflicts of interests be damned…as if the thought even cross his mind).
If the Yankees aren’t “in”, or Boras reads “not now, maybe later” he “might” be compelled to take the one year in LA via arbitration…
Is Cashman shifting his priorities based on the change in circumstances and time constraints imposed on Boras? Has Boras, out of necessity, changed his “wait for the last minute” strategy because the clock is ticking (especially for “The Other Guy”.
Maybe, maybe not.
haha@j-alba stats!
“I’m glad I’m not the only one who initially thought Jessica Alba when I saw J-Alba. XD”
Yeah, J-Alba isn’t going to work for this kid. He’s too late. Just like Andy Roddick can’t be Arod, Jonathan Albaladejo can’t be J-Alba.
When I saw J-Alba first thing I thought of was Jessica too, thankfully I’m not that much of a Yankee nerd.
Ariel:
There is a ZERO percent chance that Teixeira will accept arbitration. Maybe even less than zero.
There is an interesting piece to M.Tex that most don’t discuss.
He actually wants to be a Yankee first. Obviously, Boras is not allowing that to be made public as you can assume why..
But here we have a dire need to obtain CC who obviously does not have the same passion about the pinstripes…
There was a time that when the Yankees called you came running.. I am not saying CC won’t end up in the Bronx, but not every player has the same passion about the Pinstripes as others.. and there still are others in MLB that have always dreamed about being a Yankee.. Matt Holliday is one and M Tex is the other..
How do I know this? I don’t have a source.. you’ll just have to take my word for it.
“Boras suspects that the Yankees and the Dodgers are the only real shots, with any big score likely limited to the Bronx, so that play is more immininent (conflicts of interests be damned…as if the thought even cross his mind).”
Wouldn’t discount the possibility of the Angels getting in on Ramirez should Sabathia and Teixeira sign elsewhere.
As CC may be willing to discount for a WC team, just Maybe Tex will discount for the Yankees.
*shrugs..
In any even I am still waiting for something to happen..
“There is an interesting piece to M.Tex that most don’t discuss.
He actually wants to be a Yankee first.”
Probably isn’t discussed because no evidence exists that it’s the case.
Interesting rumors on the Yanks on MLB Trade Rumors. Also, Khalil Greene was traded from SD to St. Louis.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
Fredo,
I guess will see how true that is when he gets his next contract from whomever.
Its funny, but I was thinking the Yanks may have done this on purpose, they put a huge offer out there knowing CC will really have to weight his options. This eliminated his get it done quick idea. The Yanks have put a strangle hold on the FA market. If they don’t get CC, they will get alot of other talent. This is just a thought, but interesting knowing the state of the financial situation of the country.
I’m beginning to lean back toward CC ending up somewhere else. I mean how much money do you need?
If he already has a house close to San Francisco and he loves it there…well, if it was me, I’d hope to sign with San Fran. You can’t spend all that money in a lifetime anyway.
I’m kind of hoping the Yankees move on to Tex. He at least seems like he wants to play on the East Coast. It never works out when someone comes to New York and they don’t really want to be there.
Maybe Tex, Sheets and Lowe…I don’t know.
I love Pettitte’s quotes from the Jack Curry piece (link at bottom)–he does a great job of basically saying he’s trying to bleed the Yankees for every penny without outright saying it, while deferring completely to his agents, in an effort to be Mr. Teflon. I am kind of sick of the whole “detached athlete trying to enjoy their offseason” guise used as a cover when they are in the middle of negotiating. It’s an affront considering anyone can tell it’s just about haggling over the money, but I guess it keeps people from questioning Pettitte’s sanity for being offended by getting offered $10 million for one season when he’s over 36 and was 2-7 to finish 2008.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/04/sports/baseball/04pettitte.html?partner=permalink&exprod=permalink
“O/T, but what were jay destro & trisha feeling in their bones today? They both thought something big would happen today.
”
mel, although the possibility is distinct that I might end up with egg on my face over this one, I should at least be given the window of opportunity I mentioned!
*trisha – CC will opt to be a Yankee.
December 3rd, 2008 at 8:17 pm
a fearless prediction*
“…Actually I would have thought by the end of the day – that’s what I was thinking this morning – *but maybe it’s in terms of a day or two as opposed to an hour or two.* ”
Thank you!
There probably is some truth that Tex would first and foremost want to be a Yankee as his childhood idol was Mattingly. What kid doesn’t want to play for the same team as his idol? That being said, I don’t see him giving us a discount because of that. Lest we forget that Scott Boras is his agent and he doesn’t give discounts.
If we can’t get CC, then I’d like us to do a full hard court press to get Tex and one of the pitchers out there. I don’t really want Burnett or Lowe, but beggars can’t be choosy.
Obvious need for tagline change…
“If he already has a house close to San Francisco and he loves it there…well, if it was me, I’d hope to sign with San Fran. You can’t spend all that money in a lifetime anyway.”
It’s not *all* about the money. CC said that he wants to play for a contender. SF is a few years away from contending. If he’s willing to wait, then he should go to SF. If he wants to go to a team that has a better chance of winning sooner, then he’s going to have to make some concessions whether it’s money and/or location.
Mark Charles Teixeira is from MD.. I don’t know too many RedSox fans South of the Bronx.. sure there are today.. but that is because a lot jumped on the bandwagon when the sox won their first WS.
I’d love to see some stats on Yankee fans vs Redsox fans in MD.. how many Yank fans make the trip with the Yanks play the O’s..
And Tex wants his family to approve of where he goes… How many women prefer Boston over NYC ? Heh..
If I was a bookie I would not be placing bets on Boston..
Laura,
Thanks for mentioning Tex’s idol being Donnny Baseball. I forgot about that
There is a very good chance we will know quite a bit more after the weekend.
“How do I know this? I don’t have a source.. you’ll just have to take my word for it.”
And you are…?
“Thanks for mentioning Tex’s idol being Donnny Baseball. I forgot about that.”
I’m always reminded of it when I see Tex wearing #23.
MLB trade rumors reports today that Philly and at least one other team (not the Sox or Yankees at this point) have made offers to Lowe.
It sounds like there teams out there that are willing to give Burnett a five year deal so I don’t see anyone getting him for less than a five year contract.
I would love to be a fly on the wall and listen in on Cashman and Boras’ conversation today.
This kinda elaborates what I just said:
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/yankees/2008/11/09/2008-11-09_meet_mark_teixeira_the_big_bat_on_the_fr.html
Couple of things:
1. I call him J-Alba because I always forget if it’s Albadalejo or Albaladejo.
2. Trisha, I just thought it was really funny that you and jay destro both said yesterday was the day!
3. Tex has an EC preference, CC has a WC preference. That is a rarely known fact.
4. GB7, Doreen- regarding our CC convo from the last thread, I guess I’m not really against paying a good player a lot of money. But there’s a saturation point, a point where it’s too rich for even Yankee blood. What we’ve offered is very generous, even more so given the economic times and Cashman’s arbitration decisions. Part of my objection of raising our offer is that there’s no “real” market for CC. For whatever reasons, teams are not making their offers. So for us to chase him down the street with fistfulls of money is rather embarrassing considering what’s sitting on the table. It may also put CC in an awkward situation, IF he really doesn’t want to come to the east coast. Not saying he doesn’t, but if he’s holding out for WC teams to make an offer, we have to consider that a possibility. I’m just saying that people should be open-minded and respect CC’s decision, because at the end of the day he doesn’t owe anybody anything.
What Yankee fan really wants a guy, who doesn’t want to be here.
Pull the CC offer, sign Burnett, Petitte, Lowe/Sheets, and Tex.
“I would love to be a fly on the wall and listen in on Cashman and Boras’ conversation today.”
A fly on the wall? I’d rather be the Blackberry in Cash’s pants pocket. I hate flies.
You’ve got to wonder if Lowe really wants to play for the Yankees. I’d be very cautious of him using the Yanks to drive up his price, more so than some other players.
Just a feeling, but I don’t think he ends up a Yankee. I just don’t see it.
ray (sox fan)
December 4th, 2008 at 11:36 am
MLB trade rumors reports today that Philly and at least one other team (not the Sox or Yankees at this point) have made offers to Lowe.
It sounds like there teams out there that are willing to give Burnett a five year deal so I don’t see anyone getting him for less than a five year contract.
I would love to be a fly on the wall and listen in on Cashman and Boras’ conversation today.
————————————————————
Yeah….that’s a typical ed Sox fan’s move….get my hopes up that Lowe will end up in Philadelphia instead of the Yanks. Then, you’ll laugh like a clownboy when he signs with the Yanks. You’re really sadistic, Ray.
Well played. I’d do the same thing to you if I could make it believable.
Interesting that Cashman is going out of his way to meet with Boras before the Winter Meetings, especially when you consider his current crop of clients.
We can only speculate so I will.
I think the discussion is about Manny. I don’t think the Yankees want to spend 200 million on another player without a guarantee that he’s a proven clutch hitter. That’s where Manny seperates himself from Teixeira. Clutch hitting. Playoff performance. 2 rings.
“And you are…?”
Just a Yankee fan like everyone else here. (most everyone)
*fistshakes @Laura.
Correction: ***typical Red Sox fan’s***
He could be the greatest pitcher ever, if he doesn’t want to be here. I say good luck to him, and move on…
Burnette, Petitte, Tex/Manny, and Lowe/Sheets…we will be better of with and the pitchers and offense anyway…
Is purchasing a baseball player similar to buying an expensive car.. sure you know which car you are going to go get.. the one that you have always wanted.. but you’ll listen to the salesman tell you about the other cars, cause after all they are nice as well.. but your hear is set on the one that you really really want..
I think Cash will talk about all Boras clients, but he has a plan.. and he is not sharing with us
I read the Yankee rumors on mlbtraderumors.com
One rumor is that the Braves are pushing Burnett to accept their offer before Sabathia signs in case the Yankees make a push for Burnett if CC declines to sign with New York. I see why Atlanta is doing this but I don’t see why Burnett would agree to accommodate them. If Sabathia signs with the Yankees Burnett could just accept Atlanta’s deal. If Sabathia doesn’t sign with the Yanks Burnett knows that New York will offer him more than Atlanta is offering now. Either way its a win-win for him.
I think most of the free agent pitchers will wait until Sabathia is signed.
sorry, *off
“I’d love to see some stats on Yankee fans vs Redsox fans in MD.. how many Yank fans make the trip with the Yanks play the O’s..”
Aside from Opening Day, the Orioles drew 40K plus 11 times. 5 were against the Yankees, 5 were against Boston and 1 was against the….Pirates?
“You’re really sadistic, Ray.”
Way thank you GB7. I take that as a compliment coming from you!
Good day to you GB. You don’t sound real keen on Lowe. I have no sense of where he will end up, although unlike some people I don’t think he ends up back in Boston.
When in doubt try the simplest explanation…
If CC hasn’t decided, which he hasn’t, it’s probably because his agent is still fielding offers, or continues to expect to field offers.
He just wants to be sure what the market is before he makes a decision, like you or I or any reasonable person would.
Patience, grasshopper.
Viva, that article settles it for me. I hope the Yankees get Tex. His built in love for Mattingly, aparent respect for the game, and possible hatred of the Sox makes him immensely desirable.
Tex, Sheets, Pettitte…maybe Garland. They could win with that.
“A fly on the wall? I’d rather be the Blackberry in Cash’s pants pocket. I hate flies.”
I hate flies too, but if it’s all the same to you, I’d prefer to be a fly over being anything on Cash’s pants pocket.
Patrick,
I find it odd as well. Burnett has no incentive to sign this soon unless he absolutely knows that the Yankees refuse to go 5 years. The Yankees would never completely shut the door on the fifth year before they sign Sabathia. If Sabathia doesn’t come here, Burnett gets that 5th year and the Braves get outbid.
“Good day to you GB. You don’t sound real keen on Lowe. I have no sense of where he will end up, although unlike some people I don’t think he ends up back in Boston.”
Lowe to Philadelphia actually makes a lot of sense for both sides.
“I hate flies too, but if it’s all the same to you, I’d prefer to be a fly over being anything on Cash’s pants pocket.”
Thanks a lot Fredo. With the visual you just painted I am now speed dialing my therapist!
ray (sox fan)
December 4th, 2008 at 11:46 am
“You’re really sadistic, Ray.”
Way thank you GB7. I take that as a compliment coming from you!
Good day to you GB. You don’t sound real keen on Lowe. I have no sense of where he will end up, although unlike some people I don’t think he ends up back in Boston
————————————————————
Morning to you, Ray. Rumor has it that Lowe, Schilling and Ramirez are all returning to Boston. Lowe and Schilling will make 11 starts a season and, just so nobody will say that he is lazy and a slacker, Ramirez has agreed to start 16 games a season…5 of which, he’ll actually try his best.
“I hate flies too, but if it’s all the same to you, I’d prefer to be a fly over being anything on Cash’s pants pocket.”
Ah, but Fredo, Cash talks into his Blackberry. I can stand being on his pants pockets if it means I get to hear everything he’s saying.
“Burnett has no incentive to sign this soon unless he absolutely knows that the Yankees refuse to go 5 years”
The guaranteed 5th year is the incentive. If they pull it off the table there’s little evidence that exist anywhere else, excpet in the form of a vesting option. If Atlanta is is, as has been reported, at 5 and $80M guaranteed, then they likely have the best offer Burnett will see anywhere.
ray,
You have a therapist? Why am I not surprised. It must be conflicting for you to wear RS Nation Red with those pinstripes boxers!
“Morning to you, Ray. Rumor has it that Lowe, Schilling and Ramirez are all returning to Boston. Lowe and Schilling will make 11 starts a season and, just so nobody will say that he is lazy and a slacker, Ramirez has agreed to start 16 games a season…5 of which, he’ll actually try his best.”
GB….I have nothing, zilch, zero, nada on you in being sadistic after your last post!
Why would you want to be a fly or a blackberry. Just wish that you were the Yankees Assistant GM.
“I think most of the free agent pitchers will wait until Sabathia is signed.”
It looks like they don’t have any choice but wait. What CC gets will set the bar for the rest of them. That’s what annoys me about the delay; it’s delaying everything and everybody else. I have no problem with CC waiting for other offers to come in; that’s his right and it’s the right thing for him to do. However, that doesn’t make it any less frustrating.
I’m hoping Lowe goes to Boston. I don’t want him in NY.
Good morning Mel!
mel -
I agree – the Yankees have made a generous offer and should not make it any larger. I don’t think it’s purely a financial decision for CC. It’s fairly clear that no other team is going to top NY dollars. Again, I think if no WC team makes him an offer, he’ll choose NY over Milwaukee. But if the Angels or Dodgers or SF get into it, he’ll go there. Otherwise, why the wait?
“Why would you want to be a fly or a blackberry. Just wish that you were the Yankees Assistant GM.”
Patrick, you really know how to take the fun out of a silly discussion.
ray (sox fan)
December 4th, 2008 at 11:56 am
“Morning to you, Ray. Rumor has it that Lowe, Schilling and Ramirez are all returning to Boston. Lowe and Schilling will make 11 starts a season and, just so nobody will say that he is lazy and a slacker, Ramirez has agreed to start 16 games a season…5 of which, he’ll actually try his best.”
GB….I have nothing, zilch, zero, nada on you in being sadistic after your last post!
———————————————————-
I was going to really get nasty and add Gagne as the assistant closer, but, I couldn’t be that cruel…even to a Red Sox fan.
Here (perhaps) is a solution to the CC impasse.
Obviously, he has concerns about playing in New York. His wife prefers the WC. So why not offer him an opt-out after two years. He still gets the biggest contract ever for a pitcher. But if he doesn’t like NYC, he can opt out after two years and try his luck elsewhere. To me, this seems like a win-win. CC doesn’t need to feel trapped. And even if he leaves in two years, by then Betances, Brackman and Zach-Mac may be ready to contribute.
“However, that doesn’t make it any less frustrating.”
Yeah its really frustrating but I can’t fault CC for taking his time with this decision.
It seems obvious at this point that the Yankees’ plan is to sign Sabathia, then sign 1 or 2 of Pettitte, Lowe and Burnett. If they fail to sign Sabathia, what is plan B?
Maybe they go sign Teixeira, Burnett and Pettitte. Those 3 guys would bring the payroll to about $195 million, assuming they also sign a few guys for the bench. I’m not sure Cashman wants the payroll that high but it would be a pretty good team.
“His wife prefers the WC. So why not offer him an opt-out after two years.”
Because if he goes 42-7 for those two years, you’re not going to want to lose him. It’s not a bad idea, but I don’t think the Yankees would go for it.
Fredo,
Are you saying the Braves would withdraw the guarantee of a 5th year if Burnett waits to see if CC goes to the Yankees or not?
If the Braves do that, they’re right back where they started from. They’re not withdrawing diddly so Burnett has no incentive to sign this soon especially considering that teams are talking crazy numbers for some of the pitchers out there right now and Burnett is coming off a year where he led the AL in K’s.
I have absolutely no problem with the Yanks using Aceves as a #5 starter. There was absolutely no fear in him when facing the angels and other teams this year. He’s older than the rookies that have been tried the last two years, so he doesn’t rattle. He got his training in the Mexican leagues that are traditionally hitters leagues.
“Because if he goes 42-7 for those two years, you’re not going to want to lose him. It’s not a bad idea, but I don’t think the Yankees would go for it.”
I agree with you Laura, and I am also not so sure that even CC would want a two year opt out contract.
He seems quite durable but you just never know with pitchers. Even the best pitcher’s performance can vary a lot from year to year and if in that second year he had an off year he might not get near the same kind of contract.
bottom-line,
I had mentioned the opt-out a few weeks ago. However, I would think that if CC were really interested in coming, he would have caused his agents to sit down and attempt to hammer out the broad strokes of a deal while waiting to see if any other offers would be forthcoming. As time passes, I have less confidence in it occurring.
If I had to speculate, he’s waiting to see if the Giants intend to proffer, as that from what I have read, is the “family’s” preference. I have also read that, contrary to general belief, the Giants do have money. Given what is now hitting the media, we should have a more definitive sense rather shortly.
I don’t know if it was discussed yesterday, but Joe Sheehan wrote an interesting story yesterday in BP on the Monday arbitration offers. He concluded that the Yanks blew it by not offering arbitration to Abreu and Pettitte.
Sheehan is a very well respected baseball analyst, and his judgment has some weight.
So let’s assume that Sheehan is right. Under what conditions would Sheehan be wrong?
As I see it, the failure to offer arbitration to Abreu, if it wasn’t a mistake, may cast a lot of light on the Yanks’ plans for their offense, in particular Teixeira.
The Yanks are consistently reported to want 3 FA pitchers, namely CC, and 2 more of the quality of AJ, Lowe or Pettitte.
If they did sign 3 of those pitchers, their payroll would be between $190MM and $200MM in 2009, even if they signed no one else.
So, the failure to offer arbitration to Abreu could argue that the Yanks really do want what they reportedly want, and that they didn’t want to take a chance that significant money would be poured into the offense.
That argues that they really don’t want Teixeira, and they really do think that the offense they have now is good enough to compete in 2009.
Regarding Andy, IMO the failure to offer arbitration was just a mistake.
The Braves just traded a very good catching prospect and others to get Javier Vazquez. That means the Braves think there is value in Vazquez’ contract right now.
Vazquez and Pettitte are very similar pitchers. I personally think Andy is better, but their stats are very similar. Last year, they actually had the same OPS+.
Vazquez has 2 years and $23MM left on his contract. That’s $11.5MM a year.
IMO, there is no way Pettitte will take less than that, and he probably will get more. Notions that he will sign for $10MM are just fantasies.
The Yanks gave up an opportunity for 2 draft picks for the difference between Andy’s arb price and at best $11.5MM? That’s not smart IMO.
Ariel,
God I hope not. I can’t stop thinking…
If CC didn’t want to come here in the first place, why wasn’t his agent honest and upfront about it from the beginning? Why all the waiting and the lack of offers to other free agents? Why would the Yankees put all of their plans on hold for so long without having an accurate gauge as to CC’s willingness to come here for the right price?
“Regarding Andy, IMO the failure to offer arbitration was just a mistake.”
What possible positive could be gained by offering Pettitte arbitration? He isn’t going to sign with the Dodgers, they can’t afford him. Its clearly a negotiating ploy by Pettitte. The only thing the Yankees accomplish by offering Pettitte arbitration is that it guarantees him at least $15 million in 2009.
I’m not sure about the Abreu decision but offering Pettitte arbitration would be a really terrible idea.
I don’t think CC wants to come here either. I think he is holding the Yankees offer as a fall back if none of the West Coast teams make an offer. And I do think that he would leave money on the table to play on the West Coast.
As for an opt out clause, I think that the Yanks have had enough of opt outs after Alex last year!
Patrick, I think you are being too optimistic about Pettitte. He could get plenty of offers in the price range I mentioned if he made himself generally available.
The other possibility that the Yanks did not make a mistake is that they don’t intend to let their payroll get into the $190MM range, and really don’t intend to sign 3 FA pitchers either.
That’s when paranoia starts to creep in.
S”o, the failure to offer arbitration to Abreu could argue that the Yanks really do want what they reportedly want, and that they didn’t want to take a chance that significant money would be poured into the offense.
That argues that they really don’t want Teixeira, and they really do think that the offense they have now is good enough to compete in 2009.”
WYH:
Wouldn’t you think another way of looking at this is that maybe they do want Teixeira but fear running the risk of being saddled with both him AND Abreu????
Wave,
The refusal to risk Pettitte accepting arbitration isn’t that big of a deal. His agents can’t negotiate a 1 year deal that would top an arbitration settlement.
The Abreu case is more intruiguing. The Yankees really didn’t want to risk him accepting and thus having to alter their offseason plan. The chances of Abreu accepting were very slim but the Yankees didn’t even want to assume a small risk.
I think it means we have a pretty solid plan regardless of if we go for all pitching or for a blend of pitching and offense.
No telling how CC would react, but I would think a front-loaded contract with a 2 year opt-out could work for all parties. Pay him say $27 mill a year for the first two years (a bit higher than the likely $25 or $26m the Yanks would go to on a 6-year) and give him the right to leave in 2011. He’ll be making much more than anywhere else. He may even find to his surprise he likes New York. If he doesn’t, let him go. I personally would be thrilled with 42-7 and will give him use of my private jet back put to the Bay area when he leaves. By then, Joba and Phil, I believe, are proven winners. And, if needed we save the money and sign someone else. Unless the guy is just a falt-out irrational Yankee hater, this makes tons of sense.
Also wouldn’t hurt if Yankee fans on this board figured out a way to show CC some love.
“What possible positive could be gained by offering Pettitte arbitration? He isn’t going to sign with the Dodgers, they can’t afford him.”
Plus Andy said that he didn’t want to play for anyone other than the Yankees. He said that his kids liked it in Westchester and wanted to stay. He and the Yankees are in some sort of cat and mouse game. I love Andy, but I agree with the Yankees that he needs to take some sort of pay cut. I don’t think I’d go as low as 10mil though. Maybe 12mil?
Pettitte might get those offers but I don’t think he’d leave NY at this point. Also Vasquez is younger than Pettitte, I think its possible that Pettitte could get 2 years, 23 mil but its hardly a guarantee.
Honestly I don’t care if the Yankees sign Pettitte. I think they will get Sabathia, Lowe or Burnett and a low cost 4th starter like Byrd or Penny.
“Also wouldn’t hurt if Yankee fans on this board figured out a way to show CC some love.”
Huh? Why do we have to show him love? The Yankees are showing him the money. Where I come from, that should be enough.
Look, this isn’t that difficult a decision to make. Either CC wants to play here (and make a boat load of $$) or he doesn’t. It’s his decision to make. I’m not waging some campaign to convince him that he should come here. He needs to let his heart tell him what the right decision is for him and his family.
Laura,
I’d give him 9 and hold my nose on 10. I hope he doesn’t get offered more than that. He looked cooked last year.
MLBTR has a piece up from the Brave beatwriter for the AJC saying their offer has been made and had reason to believe it was NOT a guaranteed 5 year offer, but rather 4 and an option at $15M.
Fredo,
I would think that if the Braves were really offering 5 years and Burnett’s agent was truly concerned that a 5 year guarantee wouldn’t come from anywhere else, he would’ve signed by now.
Regarding Pettitte, management wins arbitration cases much more frequently than the players do.
So, if Pettitte’s market value is less than $15MM, it’s quite possible that the Yanks’ offer would prevail. The assumption that arbitration would give Pettitte a minimum of $15MM is not justified.
Losing 2 draft picks is a big deal if we don’t sign Pettitte but then sign a pitcher similar to him in the same price range.
As to Abreu, if the Yanks were willing to put money into offense, then I was deferring to Sheehan’s judgment that it was a mistake not to offer arbitration to Abreu. Sheehan spends a lot more time thinking about these things than I do. He’s one of the fortunate few who get paid to do it for a living.
I was just looking for an alternative explanation and that was what I came up with.
“I’d give him 9 and hold my nose on 10. I hope he doesn’t get offered more than that. He looked cooked last year.”
Pitchers always looked cooked when they are injured, which I believe Pettite was towards the end of the season. 12mil is not unreasonable. I think that 10 is too low; not offensively low, but low when you consider that Andy is a True Yankee.
mel, yeah either Jay and I were both picking up some vibe, or we were WAYYY off. Since it looks like this gut feeling might being nothing more than a case of indigestion, I would like to put it off as long as possible! That’s why I mentioned that I did say it could be happening within the next two days (as opposed to two hours, which would have made it definitively yesterday.)
We’ll see whether it turns out to be a case for celebration or for rolaids! Stay tuned.
“So let’s assume that Sheehan is right. Under what conditions would Sheehan be wrong?
Sheehan believes that Abreu will be a 5-6 win player next year.
That was the basis of his argument.
Do you believe that Abreu is a 5-6 WAR player next year?
Sheehan’s argument about Pettite was similar – he assumes Pettite projects to be say a 4-5 win player next year.
Do you believe that?
Here’s exactly what he wrote:
“Bobby Abreu projects as a five- or six-win player, Pettitte a bit below that…”
Baseball Prospectus artificially sets replacement level way too low and at times that leads their analysts to draw poor conclusions.
Check out the discrepancy between BP’s quantitative evaluation of Abreu’s value in 2008 when compared to replacement and then to the “average” right fielder. The gap is enormous.
And BP FRAR and FRAA fielding systems are antiquated as they are still based on work Clay Davenport did many years ago. They don’t use play by play data and likely underestimate Abreu’s defensive limitations.
Bret:
Probably. I was surprised to hear the Braves would consider 5 and not at all surprised that it appears to be something different from that. I don’t believe he gets 5 guaranteed anyplace.
WYH, theres no way the Yankees win an arbitration hearing if they offer $10 million and Pettitte offers $16 million. No way in heck. And once again, Pettitte won’t sign with another team unless the Yankees tell him they don’t want him. THere is no gain to offering Pettitte arbitration. At this point you are just complaining for no reason.
Love, not money may be what it takes in this case, Laura.
He has indicated that Randy Johnson’s negative experience in NYC, along with the booing of other Yankee players, has made him leery. Obviously, if he stinks up the joint he’ll be booed too. But I think that’s highly unlikely. More likely — and he needs to uderstand this– he’s got the makings of a cult hero in New York.
Bret,
The burden is neither on CC nor his agents to tell the Yankees, from the getgo, that they are not interested, or their preference is SF.
The Yankees well knew, or should have known, that other things being equal, CC, as a family man ensconsced in Northern Cal (see the article posted by John form Ohio above on this thread) “probably” has a preference and it is not New York. If they had chosen they could have included a “drop-dead” date, not the innocuous comment from Hal “it’s not going to be there forever”. The Yankees hoped, and still hope, that in the final analysis, it’s all about the money and the length.
The one thing about Sabathia coming here when he would prefer being on the West Coast that concerns most people it seems, is that his heart and full effort may not be in every pitch is hogwash.
Had that been the case, he’d never risk everything pitching down the stretch the way he did. He is also the type that isn’t going to be “the unhappy camper” in the clubhouse. Signing him long term is the least of my concerns for the Yanks. They’d be getting the same kind of professional ball player as Jeter, Rodriguez, Rivera, Posada and Pettitte have been.
I think that this belief that Abreu was going to turn down the Yankees arbitration offer may be a misnomer. The rumor is that both the Mets and the Cubs were interested in Bobby, but do we really know to what extent their interest was? Were they going to offer him a 3 yr deal? How much was it going to be for? We don’t know, do we?
What if Bobby *really* wants to stay a Yankee? What if he doesn’t want to join a team like the Cubs, who even when they have a good team, can’t seem to get out of their own way? What if he prefers the NY team that he knows over the NY team that he doesn’t? Again, we don’t know for sure.
Insert GreenBeret7’s complain about “What ifs”.
Everyone assumes that players go for their last big contract. Everyone assumes that players don’t leave $$ on the table. It may not happen often (isn’t Maddux the only case that we know of?), but I believe that it can happen and may have with Abreu (and CC – we’ll see).
Hey guys: The live chat is in 12 minutes. Hope we get some good questions.
“So, if Pettitte’s market value is less than $15MM, it’s quite possible that the Yanks’ offer would prevail.”
Quite possible but not a guarantee.
“As to Abreu, if the Yanks were willing to put money into offense, then I was deferring to Sheehan’s judgment that it was a mistake not to offer arbitration to Abreu.”
Maybe the Yankees are still willing to invest resources in offense but just don’t trust that Abreu will be worth it. He’ll be 35 throughout 2009 and Nady can outproduce him with defense factored in. CB ran the numbers on them.
If Abreu accepted, it messes everything up. Maybe the Yankees want 2 new pitchers and a bat or 3 new pitchers and no bats. There’s no way to tell. Maybe they want a mixture of trades and free agent acquisitions that change the projected payroll in ways none of us can fathom.
The point is that the Yankees definitely have a budget decided upon but countless paths to get there. Plan A’s, B’s C’s and on and on.
Olney continues to wonder if Manny Ramirez and Scott Boras will “wave the white flag” and accept the Dodgers’ offer of arbitration
that will be nice
Pete, I can’t make the live chat, but here’s my question: Would you rather be a fly on the wall during the Cash/Boras chat or the Blackberry clipped to his pants pocket?
IMO, this weekend may be rather telling as to whether Manny will be wearing Pinstripes. I would be most surprised if this isn’t high on the agenda for the Cashman/Boras get-together in Newport. Boras will want to know whether the Yankees want Manny and if so, hammer out a deal; if not, Boras may be faced with a Hobson’s Choice and go the arbitration route where the dollars will be off the charts on a one year deal. It is highly unlikely that any other team will be interested in Manny for big $$$ and enough length.
Certainly not the Angels. if you have watched Vladdie in the field, you know full well that he is or should be the DH.That is one of the reasons why GA was not re-signed (tho he may accept arb). In short, no room for Manny.
“The one thing about Sabathia coming here when he would prefer being on the West Coast that concerns most people it seems, is that his heart and full effort may not be in every pitch is hogwash.”
100% agree. Said it before and I’ll say it again, he’s never had a bad word to say about New York or the Yankees. Preferring to be elsewhere is not an afront to either New York or the Yankees. When he finally decides which combination of financial, family and liefestyle combinations suits him best, he’ll be ALL IN whether it’s the Bronx or somewhere else.
“Regarding Pettitte, management wins arbitration cases much more frequently than the players do.
So, if Pettitte’s market value is less than $15MM, it’s quite possible that the Yanks’ offer would prevail. The assumption that arbitration would give Pettitte a minimum of $15MM is not justified. ”
Come on Wave. If you’re going to comment on this, at least knwo what you are talking about. Pettitte made 16 million last year. This is MLB arbitration. Getting Pettitte for under 15 million going through arbitration is living in a fantasy world.
Ariel,
Yes the Yankees guessed that money can make a difference and ultimately influence a player to sign here. But I think they have subtle strategies to determine whether or not a player hates the idea of coming to NY no matter what the monetary reward. If the Yankees couldn’t figure that out and were willing to put their entire offseason plan on hold for so long then they weren’t doing their homework.
Sure CC and his agent aren’t obligated to tell the Yankees CC’s exact intentions but I think common courtesy in the industry says that if CC hated the idea of coming here no matter what the cost, they would’ve dropped some sort of hint. Otherwise, they were blatantly using the Yankees to extort more money from other teams. That’s bad business for CC’s agent offending a team with the Yanks rescources.
I just think a system of more thorough disclosure is in place and the Yankees have word that CC is not another Jake Peavy, a player not at all shy about not wanting to be here under any circumstances. To not have that knowledge in the first place and to proceed as the Yankees have would be utterly unproffesional and irresponsible. They haven’t even made single offer to another player yet.
bottomline -
I don’t know that I have read or heard CC himself saying anything at all. Rumors are flying and suppositions are being made, and there’s speculative statements all over the place. But I don’t know that CC has made the comments you’ve suggested regarding the booing and Randy Johnson.
I have heard the Derek Jeter spoke to him. I would hope that if he did have fears about how the fans would react to him, Jeter would have told him not to worry. And CC is NOT Randy Johnson. Johnson was a surly guy whose first interaction with the NY media was less than stellar. CC does not strike me as that kind of a guy. He’s likeable and approachable, two things Johnson never has been accused of.
Dave O’Brien of the Atlanta Constitution Journal (one of their main baseball guys) is reporting that the Braves have made Burnett an offer but it does not include a guaranteed 5th year.
It only has a 5th year option.
If true that’s not an offer Burnett is going to feel compelled to take.
Interest in Abreu waned considerably, especially from the NL teams as they digested his spiralling defensive decline, and his wall-shy ventures received more press. Without the DH option, he did not warrant a multi-year deal. And Cashman, even with the DH option, concurred.
Doreen,
YOu are right on. CC certainly has enough confidence in his persona to not even entertain those type of thoughts. If he opts not to come to NY, it’s solely a family year-round lifestyle consideration as he and his family perceive lifestyle.
Ariel,
I agree, the talk is Manny talk. He’s the only guaranteed clutch hitter on the market. He’s a once-in-a-lifetime clutch hitter who grew up a fan of a team that failed miserabley in the clutch last year and every year in the playoffs since 2004.
The math is there.
Thanks, CB, for the update on AJ.
I know Schuerholz is no longer GM there, but the Braves’ operation has always been based on sound decision-making. For all the obvious reasons, it didn’t make sense for them to offer AJ 5-years. Four years, with a 5th as an option, makes a bit more sense for them. However, I’m still a little surprised that they are going into the FA marketplace, as they have a history of not getting caught-up in that, and if fact, of trading guys who were about to hit free agency. Like Tex.
CB-
My hidden agenda was to deflect this interminable “will he won’t he” discussion with respect to CC and to some extent I was successful.
I knew I could count on you to have read Sheehan’s piece or to go read it.
Like you, I’m a little skeptical with respect to Sheehan’s valuation of Abreu. Maybe he was discounting Abreu’s 2008 defensive performance as atypically poor?
Oh poor Andy everyone is asking him about where he’ll pitch. BOOO HOOO.
Oh I want to pitch for the Yankees the agents are just doing their job. YEAH AT YOUR DIRECTION. Moose took a pay cut to stay with the Yankees. Why can’t you?! You supposedly love it here! It makes me mad that I sat in 20 degree weather to watch you pitch in your return to the Yankees.
is Pete broadcasting yet from the live blog? I can’t get a picture or audio yet.
lol i my question made it
Rosenthal says Dodgers will try for Cano at the Winter Meetings and the Yankees will ‘ask for Kemp again’. I would think the Yankees would either sign Hudson or Furcal to replace Cano.
He also says that Oliver Perez and Randy Wolf are on the Yankees radar. Perhaps the Yankees are weighing the 2 lefties against Andy Pettitte. Yankee Stadium does give a nice boost to lefties.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/
“Like you, I’m a little skeptical with respect to Sheehan’s valuation of Abreu. Maybe he was discounting Abreu’s 2008 defensive performance as atypically poor?”
That’s part of it. But the bigger issue is how BP has set their level for replacement.
They’ve just set it way to low. Their statistical definition of it doesn’t match their conceptual definition of it. That’s a big problem in metric construction.
For last year they have Abreu as roughly 47 runs above replacement. And around 10 runs better than average in RF.
That just doesn’t gel if you assume that replacement is roughly 20 runs worse than league average.
I looked that up yesterday when I saw Sheehan describe Abreu as a 5-6 win player to see how he came up with that conclusion.
The problem with setting replacement too low on one hand doesn’t matter much – as long as you set it too low for every position fine.
But it’s a big problem if you try to translate that into financial decisions unless you seriously reevaluate how much a marginal win above replacement is.
Either way – i see no way at all Abreu is that good next year.
Same for Pettite – by every way you look at it he was exactly a league average pitcher.
How does that make him a 4-5 WAR pitcher? I just don’t get it.
Sheehan’s not looking at or at least not understanding his own data.
I’ve seen him do this before.
Those guys at BP are not statisticians. Not even Nate Silver is. And it shows quite often. They make very basic errors in statistics over and over and over.
“He has indicated that Randy Johnson’s negative experience in NYC, along with the booing of other Yankee players, has made him leery.”
Can you document CC indicating that?
“For all the obvious reasons, it didn’t make sense for them to offer AJ 5-years. Four years, with a 5th as an option, makes a bit more sense for them.”
As Atlanta didn’t offer AJ a deal that was any better than what he likely had on the table – people are going to start speculating that Wren is posturing and not serious about AJ.
He makes AJ an offer he won’t accept in order to put more pressure on Towers to lower his demands for Peavy.
That’s going to be the fall out of this.
Bret,
I agree, it’s Manny Talk. I think the Yankees have a far greater interest in Manny than Pete and many other members of the NY Press want to believe. “The Clubhouse Harmony” issue is best answered by the Yankee veterans, and not the Press. I’m sure DJ, A-rod, Mo, Jorge and others have been asked. If it’s a no-go, the reason would be a negative response.
If I had to voice a view, I would say that Cash would not be going now (but would wait for meetings next week in Vegas) if a decision had been made NOT to make a play for Manny…Boras could certainly wait until next week to discuss DL. But not as to Manny due to the Sunday deadline.
Are we really getting excited about J-Alba stats in the offseason? A 9 inning sample in which he gave up a hit per inning? Puhlease!
Ariel,
The NY press doesn’t know what’s really going on?
Imagine that!
“Rosenthal says Dodgers will try for Cano at the Winter Meetings and the Yankees will ‘ask for Kemp again’. I would think the Yankees would either sign Hudson or Furcal to replace Cano.”
Speculation and none of that makes sense for the Yankees.
“I would love to be a fly on the wall and listen in on Cashman and Boras’ conversation today.”
A fly on the wall? I’d rather be the Blackberry in Cash’s pants pocket. I hate flies.”
I’d rather be the Blackberry in Xavier Nady’s pants pocket. Just sayin, lol.
Bret,
It is preposterous to think the Yankees would entertain the idea of Cano for Kemp, and I do like Kemp. Cano had a few bad months this past year, and from what Long states, he has gone the whole nine yards to remedy his deficiencies.
Were Cano to be re-united with Bowa, and be exposed to Manny’s daily batting preparation (if Manny remains a Dodger) he would challege for the Batting championship. Kemp has the potential, but is quite far removed from Cano-like status. He also is NOT a centerfielder, but is far better suited for rightfield. The Boo-birds would be out in mass. It would be a mistake. Fortunately, Rosenthal is not a typically reliable source for rumors….he wings it.
Could GMs be getting smarter:
“The other thing is that teams are moving away from the base offensive statistics,” says another GM. “They are pouring through defensive studies and seeing that below-average defenders like [Manny] Ramirez and [Pat] Burrell in the field depreciate their offensive numbers because of what they give up.”
“All of these guys are worth a great deal of money. But while Ramirez might be a $25 million hitter, he is not a $25 million baseball player because he gives away a bunch of runs when he’s in the outfield. Same goes for Burrell, a $12 million hitter but an $8 million player”
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3743131&name=Neyer_Rob
Pete, being in denial as to Manny, of course believes the main purpose of the Cash/Scottie rendevous is to discuss DL.
Hopefully this Cano for Kemp talk is just that, talk. At first I was for such a trade, and even in principle I might be for such a trade – even though Kemp is young too and has many of the same issues as Cano: mental errors, defensive lapses etc. Who’s to say Kemp won’t continue to struggle w/these things while Cano works his woes out?
but in the end, now is the absolute WORST possible time to trade Cano. It just isnt a smart business decision. Let the guy get his value back up first. It’s almost statistically impossible for him to have another entire season like last year.
Just some what ifs…
CC goes to SF/LAA
Burnett goes to ATL/BOS
Lowe goes to BOS/PHI
Sheets stays in MIL
Manny stays with LAD
Tex goes to LAA
I see these all possibly happening, leaving the NYY with Wolf, Perez, Peavy as options. Not that great, in my opinion. I kinda like Perez with him 27 years old and NY experience, but he seems like a huge risk. I think Petitte for a penny over $10,000,000 is a waste.
Not looking good for us….POTENTIALLY
Tom,
That’s why those guys are really suited only for the AL; and the big bucks will not be there (other than for Manny). It’s also why the NL teams, to this point, have shied away from Abreu who is laden with rapidly declining defensive skills.
Fly across the country to discuss Derek Lowe when you can wait just a couple more days to discuss him at the Winter Meetings.
Perfect logic Pete
miggs-
With respect to Pettitte’s salary, I was using Patrick’s floor of $15MM, not Pettitte’s salary. Where did I say $15MM was Pettitte’s current salary?
Who the hell was that fool that got 4 mins of call time in the daytime on Fatcessa’s show. Vince from CT is just a regular caller made no sense and I heard him for 3 – 4 mins. what the ?
BBB,
I live in LA and do watch quite a few Dodger games. While I do like Kemp and believe he has the ability to reach an all-star level of performance, he is a head case and would probably be destroyed in NY. He is far better off in LA under the guidance of Torre and his crew.
The only reason why I can see the Yankees trading Cano is because they have an opportunity to sign a successor to Damon as leadoff hitter in Rafael Furcal.
Without Furcal, I don’t see how the Yankees can manage without a legitimate leadoff hitter in 2010.
I’m not saying Cano should go for Kemp but I’d really like to see the Yankees plan ahead for a leadoff hitter.
AS for Cano it’s been said this is not the time to deal this kid.
“Same for Pettite – by every way you look at it he was exactly a league average pitcher.”
How do you feel about FIP? That statistic indicates Pettitte was better last year than the numbers show.
I’ve asked this question on PA’s chat twice and it doesn’t show on the question scroll, today, and since he started this, over 20 questions but,I’ll ask it here.
Since there is a real scarcity of good, available center fielders, what do you think of Gardner and Christian as a platoon team in center field?
I’m beginning to think my questions on that live chat site is being filtered out.
I’d probably trade Cano straight up for Kemp. I’m a HUGE Cano fan but Kemp is really good and he’d help a position of weakness on the Yankees. Also, there are two very good options for 2B on the free agent market. Furcal is a dynamic player, I’d love to have him on the team.
Imagine a lineup of:
2B Furcal
LF Damon
SS Jeter
3B Rodriguez
DH Matsui
CF Kemp
C Posada
RF Nady
1B Swisher
Wow…
I doubt it will happen though.
Cano for Kemp would be a home run, IMO. Work kept me from watching Pete’s video, but hasn’t that trade possibility been pretty thoroughly shot down? Did Pete bring it up?
Someone posted a rumor that the Dodgers will inquire about Cano at the winter meetings next week.
I sent a question about Cano for Kemp but Suzy did not put it up.
Cano’s are harder to come by than Kemps.
By the way, Patrick, thanks for the mention yesterday.
cano and another player for kemp and billingsley.broken leg and all.
Phil, Kemp is what the doctor ordered for our 2008 CF woes. Cano can be replaced more easily.
Furcal has a very good arm, but, isn’t that accurate. He’s barely acceptable at shortstop. In 9 years, he’s had 5 years of more than 20 errors, including a high of 31. That is brutal. His range isn’t that great, either.
How about Robi Cano to new Yankees Stadium 2B for the next 4 – 5 years meanwhile Cano haters to a cliff to take a flying leap.
Haha Wave Your Hat, after your post yesterday I spent awhile looking up contract information and assembling a big spreadsheet with every player and what their salary (or projected salary) is. Now I have several possible rosters and whenever someone makes a suggestion on here I plug it into my spreadsheet and figure out what the payroll would be.
Obviously I have to guess on how much a player will be paid. I also have to guess on arbitration stuff and how much players at the minimum will get.
You made a great point though yesterday. Its going to be very hard, if not impossible, for Cashman to get the payroll in at 180 million. There are just too many holes. He might have to cut some corners here and there. Such as keeping Gardner in CF or signing a low cost player as the fifth starter. Unfortunately, the failure of Kennedy and Hughes really hurts the payroll for this year.
And I already told you guys Rafy is not moving to 2B he even made sure he told DR media that will never happen again.
Furcal’s OPS+ is 96 for his career. He just had major back surgery. No thanks.
Brandon (TEIX IS NOT WORTH IT, GET CC !)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
December 4th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
And I already told you guys Rafy is not moving to 2B he even made sure he told DR media that will never happen again.
————————————————————
He’s got hands like a foot.
Patrick-
A spreadsheet would be really useful when evaluating all of these possibilities. I just have to do it kind of seat of the pants, so to speak.
By the way, I noticed you had Cameron down for $7MM in 2009. I think Cot’s has him at $10MM for 09.
I’m surprised there would be this much push for a Kemp for Cano. I think that’s an awful deal. Look at the corner OF FA. They are a dime a dozen. Now look at 2B market (and what makes anyone think Furcal wants to move to 2B).
Cano is cheap, under team control, and hit around .300 every year prior. Even last year, he ended up at .271 with 14 hr, down year for sure, but not useless.
GB 7,
My questions often have been filtered out. Pete apparently anwers only what he wants to, or what his associate/assistant considers “appropriate”.
Yes you’re right, that’s my mistake. He made $7 million in 2008 but his option is for $10 million in 2009.
Smart Yankees fans were participating in Pete’s video chat.
Dumb ones were asking questions like these of Keith Law:
Lou (Smithtown Ny): Mr. Law, I was wondering how serious are the Jays leaning towards a youth movement? and would like to pitch a trade idea to you if you don’t mind? – Roy Halladay – Veron Wells to NYY for Ian Kennedy Alfredo Aceves Edwar Ramirez Melky Cabrera
Keith Law: (1:06 PM ET ) That’s nowhere near enough. It would only be fair if the Jays also included Alexis Rios, Travis Snider, Tony Lacava, and Emmanuelle Chriqui.
Steve NJ: Would this trade work-Ian kennedy, Melky and a b level prospect for cole hamels?
Keith Law: (1:20 PM ET ) $5.
“How do you feel about FIP? That statistic indicates Pettitte was better last year than the numbers show.”
Complicated queston. FIP has uses and real limitations both in terms of how its constructed and its type of statistic.
FIP fundamentally assumes that contact made on batted balls – once they are categorized as ground balls, line drives, fly balls, etc. – produces completely random results.
Do you believe a ground ball hit off Roy Halladay and Andy Pettite should on the whole produce the same set of outcomes?
FIP does.
Not a knock. It provides some context independent information that ERA doesn’t. It’s a stat that sabermatricians all over are coming to see as the be all and end all which it isn’t. ERA is useless. FIP is everything, etc., etc.
FIP is also more a statistical model than a “metric” as the term is commonly used.
And for the type of statistic it is – there’s another stat called tRA that’s much better designed conceptually than FIP which is kind of poorly thought out.
Andy’s tRA last year was 4.46 and the league average was 4.87. About 10% better.
And for both of these stats tRA and FIP – unless you think the yankee’s defense is going to get much better, then well, they’re of limited value in many ways.
In terms of runs BRAR Pettite was around 5 runs worse than league average.
Looking at everything together Andy was around league average.
Law’s getting snippy. I don’t blame him though….
Furcal’s far better than any other post-Damon leadoff hitting option that I’ve heard. You can knock his health, his defense, his career OPS but please offer a more viable option if you’re going to ignore Furcal’s strengths.
Are you saying Furcal stinks but you have no idea how to replace Damon after 2009?
Or do you have someone in mind? I like Furcal because I can’t think of any potential leadoff hitter more capable and I’d hate the Yankees to be stuck without a leadoff hitter after Damon leaves.
Also, I wouldn’t mind trading in Damon and Matsui now rather than taking the picks for them after 2009. At 13 mil per season, they’re looking like bargains right now.
If you sign Manny to be the three hitter instead of Matsui and Furcal to leadoff instead of Damon, both Damon and Matsui become expendable.
william,
Kemp probably has a higher ceiling than Cano and he’s not just a corner OF, he can play CF. He has more power and can steal 40 bases a year.
To everyone saying that Furcal will refuse to play 2B all I have to say is, “money talks”.
Even if Furcal won’t sign with the Yanks, I’d take Hudson and Kemp over Cano and Gardner any day.
I’m a big Cano supporter but if you can get a guy like Matt Kemp its probably a good idea.
Damon, Matsui and who knows what you can get for Cano if not Kemp?
Maybe the Yankees finally get a full facelift.
why can’t this Cano trade to the Dodgers rumor die?
..its annoying!
“Cano can be replaced more easily.”
Have you taken a look at who the top second base prospects in the game are recently.
Just horrendous. Right now 2b is probably the worst position in terms of talent in all of baseball at the minor league level.
And Cameron’s option this year is going to pay him $10M. He’s expensive.
I am quite surprised at the lack of respect for Cano by some on this board. His skills are extraordinary, his accomplishments (other than for a good portion of last year) have been of all-star calibre, and most importantly, from what we are told, he has worked hard to remedy last year’s difficulties.
A Kemp for Cano will never happen. If it does, it will go down as the worst trade Cashman will ever have made. And I do like Kemp.
Cano for Kemp speculation again?
Wasn’t the full moon last week?
“And for the type of statistic it is – there’s another stat called tRA that’s much better designed conceptually than FIP which is kind of poorly thought out.”
I’m not familiar with that one. Where’s the best site to get read about it?
*** best site to read about it? ***
I hould add, that having watched Kemp for the better part of 2 plus years here in LA, he does have superstar potential, but he needs alot of nurturing and guidance; he remains a “project in development”. Though he “can play” centerfield, he is not a centerfielder. At this stage of his career, he would not flourish in NY; nor would he develop, if at all, to the satisfaction of the Yankee fanbase.
The only people who think the Dodgers would trade Kemp for Cano are yankee fans.
The dodgers are not going to trade Kemp for Cano unless the yankees include other players of value in the deal.
Kemp is much more talented a player than Cano is. It’s not even that close in terms of pure talent.
Besides Justin Upton, Kemp might be the most talented young position player in baseball right now.
He’s learning to play the game still and is only 23. But if he became a 40 HR – 40 stolen base guy no one would be that surprised.
Kemp is getting bigger every year. Within 3 years, if he isn’t careful, he’ll eat himself into a DH position.
People, get over your love of Kemp. First of all, LAD seems quite happy to have him. Second, the Yankees appear to be committed to Cano. Unless somebody makes Cash a deal he can’t refuse, I don’t see them moving Cano – nor should they.
Regarding tRA:
http://statcorner.com/index.php
“I’m a big Cano supporter but if you can get a guy like Matt Kemp its probably a good idea”
I don’t buy into Cano as a megastar, challenging .400 and annually competing for batting titles and all that stuff. But the fact is that, even after a tough 2008, he is among the Top 5 at his position, he’s young, reasonably priced and at a position where offense simply isn’t that easy to find. I see him as a .300 hitter with 17-20 homer, 40-45 double thump who will play an above average second base. That’s going to be an allstar more often than not. Find Kemps is easier than finding Canos. I don’t touch that deal.
Wouldn’t it be funny if all the press leaks of late of how great Cano is doing in the media and from Long were all just an attempt by Cash to raise his value back up from and land a big fish for him in a deal?
“Furcal’s far better than any other post-Damon leadoff hitting option that I’ve heard. You can knock his health, his defense, his career OPS but please offer a more viable option if you’re going to ignore Furcal’s strengths.”
Other then the fact he has a bulging disk in his back, is a poor defender, and is an over rated offensive player-he’s had 3 seasons where he’s had an OBP of over .350 (thats not leadoff quality). Furcal is fast. So, he’s got that going for him, which is nice…
CB likes Kemp.
There it’s settled.
Thank you CB. Kemp is indeed more valuable than Cano and has more potential. However its not unthinkable that the Dodgers would trade Kemp.
Ned Colletti .. thats all I should have to say.
Honestly though, it would be a shock if the Dodgers actually agreed to that deal but the rumor reported above brought up this speculation. IF the dodgers want Cano and IF they agree to Kemp I’d pull the trigger then sign Furcal or Hudson.
“Cano for Kemp speculation again?”
I know. I’m sure the “Let’s get Peavy” nonsense is not too far behind.
The Yankees are NOT trading Cano this off season! Why on Earth would they have their hitting coach flying to the Dominican to recreate a swing and batting stance for a player they are trading???
Tom,
Who replace Damon after 2009? It’s a simple question. Give it a gander.
Tom,
Who replaces Damon at leadoff after 2009?
“I live in LA and do watch quite a few Dodger games. While I do like Kemp and believe he has the ability to reach an all-star level of performance, he is a head case and would probably be destroyed in NY. He is far better off in LA under the guidance of Torre and his crew.”
Ariel: That is exactly what I’ve heard from relatives of mine. It seems like they are similar enough, both in that regard and in terms of potential to produce far above the league average at 2b and CF, that trading one for the other would be an exercise in uselessness, a case of spinning our wheels for no reason. It’s hard to find young, above avg offensive producers at both positions, so why create a hole in order to fill another one? Especially when both players carry risk – I’ll stick with our own risk rather than take another team’s unknown one all day. If Cano returned to 2006 form in LA under Bowa’s tutelage and Kemp faded under the bright lights here, it would be a disaster.
And that’s not even addressing the fact that Cano is at his lowest mkt value while Kemp isn’t. That’s the bright red cherry atop the ice cream sundae o’monumental idiocy of trading Cano this winter.
And I, too, like Kemp alot. Doesn’t make this the right deal for the Yankees, though.
“CB likes Kemp.
There it’s settled.”
Like I give a rat’s….
CB-
You misinterpreted my post. My point was not that you could easily replace Cano with a young Cano somewhere. That’s not going to happen.
My point was that if we got Kemp, we would not need to then replace Cano’s production, because we would then have Kemp instead of Gardner.
I said getting Kemp for Cano would be a home run. The flip side of that point is that the Dodgers would never do the deal straight up.
“Find Kemps is easier than finding Canos.”
Cano is a relatively unique talent only because of his position.
Kemp is a rare talent independent of position. He has monstrous bat speed. The kind of bat speed that just can’t be taught. Watching him swing the bat is phenomenal.
I’m not sure when the last time I saw a guy that raw – that much an athlete rather than ball player – play as well as Kemp has.
Compare Kemp to Cameron Maybin. Still big questions on Maybin despite his gifts. I was expecting Kemp to basically do what Maybin did when he got to the pros. He’s played much better.
I don’t think there’s some definite answer to yes you definitely make the trade or no you don’t.
They provide different kinds of value. A lot of it depends on what the needs of your team are.
I also agree with Ariel and have said this before. Many of the yankee fans who want to trade Cano for Kemp would absolutely hate Kemp as a player. He’d quickly get written off as a “headcase,” “lazy,” “undisciplined,” “unfocused,”etc.
Kemp requires patience. Many Yankee fans just don’t have that.
Kemp could be an absolute disaster in NY. No question about it.
BBB,
If you trade Cano for Kemp and sign Furcal while he’s on the open market then you’re filling two needs, not spinning wheels. Furcal becomes leadoff hitter after Damon leaves and Kemp upgrades CF.
“I see him as a .300 hitter with 17-20 homer, 40-45 double thump who will play an above average second base. ”
So do I except for maybe a bit more HR’s. However, Kemp has a LOT higher potential than that. He could possibly be a .300, 40 HR, 40 SB player.
Okay we really need to stop beating this dead horse. This discussion is getting really old.
By the way, theres a new post.
Thanks for the statcorner site, CB. I’d never seen it.
Oh, also, I’ve heard a lot of talk that Kemp may end up a corner OF when all is said and done. Which makes a previous comment that it’s easier to find Kemps than Canos all the more accurate. Corner OF’s with big bats are a dime a dozen, and iirc from looking at next year’s FA list, it includes a lot of corner OF, and Matsui and Damon will be off the books then.
It’s silly to create a hole that can’t be filled next year in order to fix a hole that can. And for those who think the hole at 2b could be easily filled by an Orlando hudson signing, I beg to differ. The guy just can’t stay on the field. Sure he’d make exciting plays when healthy, but once he got injured, get ready for Cody Ransom, your everyday starting 2nd baseman.
Honestly if anything, I would have been open to Mark Ellis taking over at 2b, but the A’s re-signed him quickly.
“Cano is a relatively unique talent only because of his position.”
True enough CB. That was my point, but the way I stated it suggested Cano is more talented than Kemp, which I do NOT believe to be true.
CB,
Maybe Kemp and Manny got along in LA and Manny can help Kemp adjust here?
FURCAL FOR THE LAST TIME TOLD EL DIARIO AND PRIMER IMPACTO HE DOES NOT WANT TO PLAY 2B. HE HAS MADE THAT KNOWN WELL IN D.R.
BBB, I too live So.Cal, and Matt Kemp is going to grow into a perennial All Star ballplayer….RF is where I envision him ending up…He’s learning CF via on the job training…..That being said, I would not trade Cano for him at all….Cano is just a wonderful talent and his future should remain in the Bronx…..Besides the Dodgers would have to expand the return if that trade ever came up….Dodgers need young pitchers, just as most every ballteam does….No to trading Cano….I do love Kemp though
Bret,
Jeter or Brett Gardner.
Before you jump down my throat, hear me out. You have to figure that Brett Gardner is going to get playing time this year. If he can be productive (say .260-270 with an OBP of .350 or so) he’ll get a shot. If not it will go to Jeter. Then Austin Jackson eventually will get a shot.
“If you trade Cano for Kemp and sign Furcal while he’s on the open market then you’re filling two needs, not spinning wheels. Furcal becomes leadoff hitter after Damon leaves and Kemp upgrades CF.”
Bret – Under this scenario, does Jeter move to 2b, or Furcal? Either way it sounds problematic. I dont think the Yanks are ready to move Jeter to a new position yet, and why would Furcal agree to move when numerous teams want him at his natural position?
The Yanks could also upgrade CF by trading for David DeJesus, and it wouldn’t require dealing Cano at his absolute lowest value possible.
Hey Brandon, whatever happened to that CF Gerut that you wanted the Yanks to trade for in the summer? Is he still with SD? Maybe that should be explored now, I’m sure he could be had for cheap and he would make a very nice piece of insurance off the bench especially if the Yanks end up going with some incarnation of Melky/Brett/Damon as the starter. Or even if we signed Teix, Gerut could save Swisher the trouble of having to play CF all the time.
BBB,
Furcal moves to 2b, his natural position where he first played with the Braves. Yes he told the press in DR that he would not switch back to 2b, but it’s interesting that the press bothered to ask him the question instead of everyone just assuming Furcal will sign with a team to play shortstop. I would assume Furcal’s defense at 2b is more of an asset given the degree of diffuculty compared to shortstop and Furcal’s experience as a 2b when he was initially called up.
Tom,
I would much rather have a guaranteed leadoff hitter in Furcal than take a gamble on Gardner or depend on Jeter at this point in his career.
BTW,
Just because Furcal told the press he would not switch back to 2b doesn’t mean he won’t. If the price is right he might and to tell the press otherwise would be to reduce his leverage in negotiations.
Well, there are a couple of corner outfielders that I like that might be had for the right deals..Hart from Milwaukee, Hawpe from Colorado, Ankiel, even Kemp (just not for Cano), Holliday just for money, but, for the money and talent cost would be Hart.
I’d also like to see Adam LaRoche at first base.