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If Plan B is offense, it might not work

Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Dec 05, 2008 Print This Post Print This Post | Email This Post Email This Post

Baseball economics expert Vince Gennaro invited me to Manhattanville College last night to attend the final session of a grad school sports management class he taught. Two groups of students presented their final projects.

The first group did an in-depth study of the Baltimore Orioles and the factors that drive their attendance and what the team could do to improve that. The second project looked at the value of roster depth.

The students charted the win shares and durability of frontline players and bench players and broke them down to hitters, starters and relievers. They then compared all 30 teams.

As you might expect, starting pitching is what separated the elite teams from the rest and there was a wide disparity. That was particularly the case with the Yankees. But what struck me was that the offensive production was in a pretty tight range. The frontline players of most teams played close to the mean.

In other words, starting pitching is what mattered, particularly the depth of starting pitching. The students, who are all fans of the Yankees, commented that Brian Cashman was doing the right thing by focusing on starting pitching.

The reason I bring this up is to question the idea that if the Yankees lose out on the starting pitchers they want, they should go out and sign Mark Teixeira and Manny Ramirez and try to win with offense.

Based on what I saw last night, there is no “winning with offense.” You win with pitching, particularly starting pitching. The Yankees would have the same problem they had last season, except perhaps they would lose 7-5 more often instead of 3-2.

The idea that they could sign two hitters and simply mash their way to the playoffs is not a solid one or especially valid based on the statistics I saw last night. One way or another, be it through free agency or trade, the Yankees can not lose their focus on the rotation.

Cashman is a smart guy and he has start people working for him. I’m sure they know what those students so ably presented last night. That what’s makes these next few weeks so critical.

Trading Robinson Cano (which I don’t believe will happen) for Matt Kemp only spins the wheels. And please save the theories that Johnny Damon or Hideki Matsui could bring back pitching. They’re both making $13 million, are in the final year of their contracts and have no-trade rights. In Matsui’s case, he has had two knee surgeries in the last year. In this market, I don’t see either of them bringing back a front-line starter in return unless it was part of some larger deal.

The power the Yankees right now is financial flexibility and they need to use that to land a couple of those starters. If anybody in the Bronx needs proof of that, I’m sure Vince’s students would be happy to show you their presentation.

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282 Responses to “If Plan B is offense, it might not work”

  1. Squints December 5th, 2008 at 12:10 pm

    CC, Ben Sheets, Adam Dunn.

    Do it.

  2. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 12:11 pm

    I wish I could have taken a class like that in college.

  3. Drew December 5th, 2008 at 12:17 pm

    They would have to be crazy to trade Cano! Why is his name even being floated! Such a frustrating off season so far!

  4. CB December 5th, 2008 at 12:17 pm

    “Based on what I saw last night, there is no “winning with offense.” You win with pitching, particularly starting pitching.”

    Pete,

    Was this analysis based on Bill James’ win share statistic?

    I hope not. That’s ancient history. Useful at the time but now completely outdated.

    James fixes the proportion of wins between offense, pitching and defense when he set up the measurement. It’s a strange stat as its entirely colored by James’s subjective definition of what makes a team win.

  5. frankiedue December 5th, 2008 at 12:18 pm

    Yes, pitching wins games, but you also need clutch, timely hitting, to scratch out that 7th inning run against Josh Beckett.

  6. darkmoonfire December 5th, 2008 at 12:20 pm

    Plan A for the past few years has been offense. Hasn’t worked. Plan B won’t either. Our offense is fine as it is if we get good starters.

    Starting pitching is all that matters. We’ve neglected it for too long.

  7. Phil - 27 in '09 December 5th, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    Pete, could you please give more details on both presentations? What were the driving factors for the O’s presentation? What did the second group use to measure wins?

  8. JoeT 28 in 10.... KEEP PHIL FRANCHISE!! BRING BACK BOBBY!! December 5th, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    DO NOT TRADE CANO!! You don’t trade someone with that much talent off of a down year. We would DEFINITELY regret trading Robby.

    Interesting study though, I hope these meetings with CC and Boras (for Lowe etc.) go as planned.

  9. Irabu's Son December 5th, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    Bring back Jimmy Key.

  10. Dr. Cox December 5th, 2008 at 12:21 pm

    Hey Pete:

    Student in the Sports Management program at M-Ville, here. Was hoping to stop by that class last night to meet you but had a medical procedure this morning.

    Hope you enjoyed it though.

  11. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 12:22 pm

    “Same reason you don’t address his suckitude in Boston, right? You’re not the only one who can cherry pick stats, dude. ”

    I did address it. He had one bad season in Boston. The past 4 seasons have proven that his bad season was an outlier. Like I said earlier, Josh Beckett had one bad season in the AL East, does that mean he is no longer a good pitcher?

  12. mel December 5th, 2008 at 12:24 pm

    Studly hitting can knock Joshie Boy out in the 4th or 5th inning.

    Tex would be a great addition to the Yankees. He probably has as much interest in playing for the Angels as CC has pitching for the Yankees. Read into that however you please.

  13. Mike December 5th, 2008 at 12:24 pm

    Cano for Kemp. .I’d do that in a heartbeat!!

  14. Phil December 5th, 2008 at 12:25 pm

    my posts aren’t showing up.

  15. Yanks fan in Austin December 5th, 2008 at 12:26 pm

    What do you mean by “financial flexibility.” Does it mean that the Yankees have the ability to spend more money than the next team? Fancy talk befuddles me.

  16. JoeT 28 in 10.... KEEP PHIL FRANCHISE AND CANO!! BRING BACK BOBBY!! December 5th, 2008 at 12:27 pm

    really mike? I think we’d be nuts to trade Cano for Kemp (or anyone that’s not a front line starter, but I don’t even want to do that). That’s your opinion and there’s nothing wrong with it, I just hope Cashman feels differently then you do.

  17. vinny-b *Behold the sword of Urlacher* December 5th, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    “Based on what I saw last night, there is no winning with offense. You win with pitching, particularly starting pitching”

    a sampling of Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians teams, agree. The ‘John Hart’ Cleveland Indians in particular, remain the best offensive team i’ve ever seen. Lot of good, it did.

    Bill James? He’s provided valuable insight to baseball. However he lost his omnipotence when he said there’s no such thing as ‘clutch hitting’. Ignorance.

  18. Bob(The Original) December 5th, 2008 at 12:28 pm

    That’s all fine and good, you do need pitching to win.

    BUT, the pitching is only as good as the defense and the Yankees are a pretty bad defensive team. That is why Teixeira should be a main priority for the Yanks this offseason. You’re getting a great bat and a great glove.

    You’ve got Wang and maybe Lowe as starters who get lots of groundballs. For them to be their best a good defense is pivotal.

    Not to mention Posada and MAtsui are 2 huge question marks offensively and Damon is sure to start regressing.

    Even if they sign Sabathia, I don’t see this team making the playoffs with the lineup presently constructed.

  19. DC December 5th, 2008 at 12:29 pm

    Wow Pete, it took a college final project for you to realize this? Were you not watching the Yankees from 04-07? Why do my posts never come through?

  20. trisha - CC will opt to be a Yankee. December 5th, 2008 at 12:29 pm

    “DO NOT TRADE CANO!! You don’t trade someone with that much talent off of a down year. We would DEFINITELY regret trading Robby.”

    Yep.

    I also advocate bringing back Bobby and having total trust that Hughes will be the face of the franchise at some point soon. The guy has miles of talent and the maturity level to make sure he finds a way to bring it out.

  21. #9 December 5th, 2008 at 12:29 pm

    Not sure will CC will go if he doesn’t sign with Yanks…

    Angels ar more interested in Tex (they have pitching already)…

  22. trisha - CC will opt to be a Yankee. December 5th, 2008 at 12:30 pm

    If nothing else, I hope that Robby’s name being bandied about in trade rumors scares him into total concentration next season!

  23. Art Vandelay December 5th, 2008 at 12:30 pm

    You can’t say that the 1996-2001 Yankees had stronger bats than the 2002-2007 versions. But we had a very average starting rotation last year but it was our bats that kept us out of the playoffs. We seemed to have lost a lot of low scoring games in ’08.

    And trading Cano would be a bad move because we’d be selling low. He’ll get better in ’09 and Swisher will have a good ’09 too.

  24. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 12:32 pm

    Trish agree on Cano and Hughes. Not sure about Abreu so much anymore. I think they’re going in a different direction.

  25. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 12:34 pm

    Patrick
    December 5th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
    “Same reason you don’t address his suckitude in Boston, right? You’re not the only one who can cherry pick stats, dude. ”

    I did address it. He had one bad season in Boston. The past 4 seasons have proven that his bad season was an outlier. Like I said earlier, Josh Beckett had one bad season in the AL East, does that mean he is no longer a good pitcher?

    ———————————————————–

    Actually, 2003 was no work of art, either.

  26. Wave Your Hat December 5th, 2008 at 12:34 pm

    I’ll leave it to the more statistically astute to analyze, if anyone should care to, but it seems intuitively true that “winning with starting pitching” vs “winning with offense” must have something to do with how much pitching you have as opposed to how much offense you have at any time.

    For instance, if the Yanks were to sign CC for an average salary of $23MM, and AJ for one year at, say, $16MM, so that their rotation was CC, AJ, Wang, Chamberlain and Aceves, and let’s say then they had another $15MM to spend.

    Would they would be better off under all circumstances buying another top pitcher? Is the fifth starter as important as the third starter? It doesn’t seem that way to me, intuitively at least.

    Or, another way, if they could have CC, Wang, Chamberlain, Pettitte and Aceves, and then be able to afford Teixeira, is that worse than CC, Wang, Burnett, Chamberlain and Pettitte, but no offensive improvement?

    Maybe, but I’m not satisfied just with an analysis that said starting pitching always beats offense.

  27. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 12:35 pm

    I have a feeling in my gut that tells me the Yankees will not trade Cano (even if they are offered Albert Pujols), they will re-sign Abreu to a 3 year contract because he’s a true Yankee, Hughes will win the CY young this year and Derek Lowe will lose 20 games with the Red Sox in 2009.

    Wait.. maybe that feeling is just hunger. Time for lunch, see ya later!

  28. EdWhitson December 5th, 2008 at 12:36 pm

    People say we can’t afford Tex and CC, but I think that might be near – sighted. Why ? Don’t Matsui and Damon go away next year ? So, take a hit in 2009 and by 2010, you should be in a better financial position when Matsui and Damon are off the books. True, you would have to replace them, so maybe you can bring up AJ (if he’s ready)which will cost nothing and just resign one of the 2 ? Or somebody else Thoughts ?

  29. mel December 5th, 2008 at 12:37 pm

    Just like football, you need a good balance of all aspects of the game.

    The bullpen is good, with potential to be really good. Our record when leading after the 7th was really good in ’08.

    Add one study pitcher, Andy for a year. You’ve got

    CC/AJ
    Wang
    Pettitte
    Mystery Pitcher #4
    Joba

    With the AAA crew to fill in as needed.

    Add one big bat to round out the decent, but aging lineup we have.

    But you can’t ignore the defense. Good defense makes good pitching great and helps the offense.

    Add CC/AJ and Tex.

  30. Bob(The Original) December 5th, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    They should have signed Beltran. CF has been a glaring hole ever since.

    Not signing Teixeira will be just as bad a decision.

    Both have been huge areas of need for the Yanks for years now.

  31. CB December 5th, 2008 at 12:39 pm

    “You’ve got Wang and maybe Lowe as starters who get lots of groundballs. For them to be their best a good defense is pivotal.”

    Last season, when Wang was pitching, the yankee’s defense saved more runs than any defense did for any other pitcher in baseball.

    When Andy or Darrell Rasner were pitching the defense was pretty bad.

    But when Wang was on the mound – the defense was very good.

    Pitchers depend on defense. But defenses also depend on the kind of contact pitchers allow.

  32. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 12:40 pm

    This should not be surprising news people…

    PITCHING WINS, always has. If offense was of equal importance, nothing could have stopped the 2004-2007 Yankees. But oh ya, we lost in every year while a Boston team with deep pockets full of pitchers won two rings.

    That’s why all you louts lobbying for Teixeira need to wake up. Even if we don’t get CC, Teixeira is STILL a bad idea.

  33. Squints December 5th, 2008 at 12:43 pm

    “Last season, when Wang was pitching, the yankee’s defense saved more runs than any defense did for any other pitcher in baseball.

    When Andy or Darrell Rasner were pitching the defense was pretty bad.

    But when Wang was on the mound – the defense was very good.

    Pitchers depend on defense. But defenses also depend on the kind of contact pitchers allow.”

    where was that article from? Was it Baseball Musings? I was really surprised (though pleasantly) when I read it.

    Also, I like Bobby Abreu but bringing him back at this point just doesn’t make sense. I’d much rather spend that money on either Tex or Adam Dunn.

  34. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

    Bob,

    I buy your comments on CF in general. Beltran would have made more sense to the Yankees at the time because it is a position that isn’t as easy to fill from a defensive and offensive perspective.

    But 1B? Too much depth in the league at 1B. So much that dropping over $160 million for the position makes no sense (ala Jason Giambi). And yes, I know Teixeira plays better defense, but Swisher can fill that void and add at least a decent bat to the lineup for the time being.

  35. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

    Good God…Listening to Simpson rambling on about not knowing that what he did was wrong is laughable and sickening. The attorney’s trip down Civil War Lane was absolutely pathetic.

  36. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

    According to my highly scientific calculations, the Yankees could actually get both Sabathia and Teixeira and keep the payroll under $200 million. However, to do this they’d have a crappy bench, pretty bad outfield defense (Nady, Damon, Swisher) and Phil Hughes as the fourth starter. Its doable but I don’t think Cashman will go in that direction.

    Note: My highly scientific calculations are based on several guesses. (contracts, arbitration, etc)

  37. Bob Mac December 5th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

    I think ignoring Teixiera is short-sighted akin to Beltran. Despite innings limits on Joba and Hughes, I want two starters and Teixiera. Choose the two from CC, Burnett, Sheets, Perez and Lowe. Then, we can plug in a young pitcher and go cheap in centerfield. Assuming $23M for
    CC, $20 for Teixiera and $15M for the second pitcher, they can keep payroll under $200M.

  38. CB December 5th, 2008 at 12:45 pm

    “where was that article from? Was it Baseball Musings?”

    Yes. From Pinto’s PMR data.

  39. saucY December 5th, 2008 at 12:46 pm

    “Can this analysis tell me how we made the playoffs in 2005,2006, and 2007 but missed it in 2008 given the following?”

    show us the Sox and Rays rank in team ERA runs scored in those years

  40. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 12:47 pm

    CB
    December 5th, 2008 at 12:39 pm
    “You’ve got Wang and maybe Lowe as starters who get lots of groundballs. For them to be their best a good defense is pivotal.”

    Last season, when Wang was pitching, the yankee’s defense saved more runs than any defense did for any other pitcher in baseball.

    When Andy or Darrell Rasner were pitching the defense was pretty bad.

    But when Wang was on the mound – the defense was very good.

    Pitchers depend on defense. But defenses also depend on the kind of contact pitchers allow.

    ———————————————————–

    I’d think that the fast pace of Wang’s compared to the slower pace of Pettitte and Rasner had a lot to do with that.

  41. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 12:49 pm

    Wow…sign CC, Burnett/Lowe, AND Texeira.

    You guys are mad.

  42. mel December 5th, 2008 at 12:51 pm

    saucY,

    Futile request. Those stats, nor these show “clutch” hitting which the Sox had (and won with) and the Yankees didn’t have (and lost with).

    Anyone have confirmation of the AJ/Atlanta deal posted on the other thread? The only thing I can find is an article in the Toronto Sun with Brauneker saying that there’s lots of interest (really?) and the field hasn’t been narrowed yet.

    People say AJ’s “old”, but he’s only a year older than Sheets.

    People say AJ had a contract year, well so did Lowe, Manny, Sheets, and many others. Well, not Bobby Abreu or Jason Varitek. :)

  43. Dan December 5th, 2008 at 12:52 pm

    Pete, Could you have the students post their presentations on your blog or have them for an online presentation or chat? LOVE YOUR WORK.

  44. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 12:52 pm

    The Mad Prince in Pinstripes
    December 5th, 2008 at 12:49 pm
    Wow…sign CC, Burnett/Lowe, AND Texeira.

    You guys are mad.

    ———————————————————–

    Not now, but they will be if those guys aren’t signed. It’ll be like Mad Cow Disease breaking out on these boards.

  45. mel December 5th, 2008 at 12:53 pm

    Wang’s defensive support is simple to explain. They players absolutely love playing behind him. They have to be on their toes constantly and they’ve said they love it.

  46. Bob(The Original) December 5th, 2008 at 12:53 pm

    But 1B? Too much depth in the league at 1B. So much that dropping over $160 million for the position makes no sense (ala Jason Giambi). And yes, I know Teixeira plays better defense, but Swisher can fill that void and add at least a decent bat to the lineup for the time being.

    I diagree with there being alot of depth out there at 1st. If that was the case why has it been such a black hole for the Yanks since Tino(version 1) left?

    It’s a position where you have to get monster production from and lets face it, that has not been the case here for a long time. Giambi had his moments, but we all know how that story played out. Add in Teixeira’s defense and it really should be ano brainer that the Yanks make him priority 1a. this offseason.

    Think about it, do you really see the lineup as presently constructed topping last year’s run total? There’s just too many ifs(Cano, Posada, Matsui, Damon, Gardner). I don’t think Nady is as good as his numbers were last year and a regression should be expected. I think Swisher will be better, but you never know. This lineup needs another high OBP basher.

  47. KennyH123 December 5th, 2008 at 12:53 pm

    Pitching is what wins. End of story.
    No matter how many times that is said, no matter how many times it proven over and over and over again, there are still idiots out there who think signing a first baseman for $200 million is somehow a good idea.

  48. CB December 5th, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    “I’d think that the fast pace of Wang’s compared to the slower pace of Pettitte and Rasner had a lot to do with that.”

    That very well may be part of it.

    On the whole I think it has to do with all the dead worms.

    The yankee fielders actually appear to have better range when they play behind Wang. They are simply able to get to balls that they can’t get to when other yankee pitchers are throwing.

    It’s not just that Wang gets ground ball outs. He induces ground balls that appear to be much easier to field than average.

    This goes against much of the conventional wisdom in the world of baseball statistics where they assume that batted balls are largely random events.

  49. Squints December 5th, 2008 at 12:54 pm

    “I’d think that the fast pace of Wang’s compared to the slower pace of Pettitte and Rasner had a lot to do with that.”

    I think it’s the fact that Wang’s stuff is great. His sinker is “bowling ball” like according to anecdotal evidence. Compared to him, Rasner’s stuff and Pettitte’s stuff was relatively flat and I think guys hit Pettitte and Rasner much harder.

  50. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 12:56 pm

    “Wang’s defensive support is simple to explain. They players absolutely love playing behind him. They have to be on their toes constantly and they’ve said they love it.”

    Works fast and puts the ball in play. Fielders love that.

  51. Arliss December 5th, 2008 at 12:58 pm

    Pathetic that you erased my post which basically showed statistics to prove that the much heralded analysis of these pikers was nothing more than a bunch of garbage. Utterly pathetic use of the delete function on this message board.

  52. CB December 5th, 2008 at 12:58 pm

    “Maybe, but I’m not satisfied just with an analysis that said starting pitching always beats offense.”

    I haven’t seen that analysis but I doubt that’s the conclusion.

    I’d guess that the conclusion was closer to starting pitching depth generally is more important than offense, or perhaps, allocating resources towards starting pitching increases the probability of winning/making the playoffs.

    The things I’ve seen from Gennaro – he generally feels that to win in the AL East in particular you have to have depth in starting pitching. He emphasizes that over and over and thinks that’s where money should be spent despite the higher risk for pitchers getting injured.

  53. Doreen December 5th, 2008 at 12:58 pm

    Until last year, when the Yankees offense was having an off year, to say the least, the Yankees offense DID win them games. It got them to the playoffs at least in years 2002-2007 (years when the pitching was starting to become questionable). The lack of elite starting pitching cost them championship(s). They had virtually no shut-down pitching performances, or at least not enough to match the other pitchers who were shutting down the Yankees monster offense.

    So, you need both. Plus a bullpen. And defense. Above average in all areas if you want to advance to and through the playoffs.

    I think CC and Tex, plus Andy and one more pitcher would be a very successful off-season. CC and no Tex would be okay; however the opposite would not be true – Tex without CC is nothing.

  54. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 12:59 pm

    Sign CC/Sheets/Pettitte. Am I being fair here, I think so. CC for 6/140 roughly 24 million per year, Sheets for 2 years 30 mil with incentives about 15 million per and Pettitte back on a one year 12 million dollar deal. That is about 51 million added. I believe the payroll is around 130 million right now that plus the 51 million is 181 million. I think thats right on point where we want to be?

  55. mel December 5th, 2008 at 1:00 pm

    Arliss,

    Think of it as random drug testing. It was my turn yesterday. It gets caught in the filter and posted later. We’ll just look forward to the stats when they finally show up.

  56. Mr. Exceptional December 5th, 2008 at 1:01 pm

    They could go all in on CC and Tex. In part because of the fact that I thought they were exempt from the luxury tax next year due to the opening of the new stadium (I actually thought it was a couple years).

    I know I read this somewhere. Maybe Pete can shed some light.

  57. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 1:02 pm

    No on Abreu. Bad defensively and is on the decline. Go with a big bopper like Dunn to protect Arod.

    Tell C.C. today that every day he holds out from this point on our offer figure goes down 1 MILLIOS DOLLARS!! C.rap or get off the pot.

  58. Bob(The Original) December 5th, 2008 at 1:02 pm

    Everyone seems to forget that with as many problems as there were with them last eason, at the end of the day our pitching should have been good enough to get us into the playoffs.

    It was the offense and defense that kept us out.

    Now, I doubt we would have gone anywhere if we got in with the rotation, but it shows that there is more to do than just get a couple of top shelf starters.

  59. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 1:02 pm

    “Pathetic that you erased my post which basically showed statistics to prove that the much heralded analysis of these pikers was nothing more than a bunch of garbage. Utterly pathetic use of the delete function on this message board. ”

    Wow I’d have to agree. I read your post before it got deleted and you brought up a great point. Pretty lame move by Pete IMO.

  60. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:03 pm

    Bob,

    This year’s offense doesn’t have to top last year’s run total if we have deep starting pitching. Our bullpen is extremely deep as it is. Throw CC, Pettitte, and Lowe into that rotation and you have arguably the best pitching corp in baseball.

    And regarding Giambi, there were pros and cons and A LOT of distraction in that contract, but if you look over the past couple seasons, he gave us all we needed offensively at that position. His BA was crappy, but he drove in runs, hit for power, and had high OBP.

    Teixeira as “priority 1a” is bad business.

    And to answer your question, yes, I think our current offense, IF HEALTHY, is more than capable of out-doing last year’s.

    And I am in favor of trading Cano for a stud, young starting pitcher like Clayton Kershaw. Then you sign Hudson and don’t have to worry about a Lowe or a Pettitte if you get CC.

  61. Arliss December 5th, 2008 at 1:03 pm

    “The idea that they could sign two hitters and simply mash their way to the playoffs is not a solid one or especially valid based on the statistics I saw last night. One way or another, be it through free agency or trade, the Yankees can not lose their focus on the rotation.”

    Oh – but the statistics I showed you earlier in this thread that you deleted painted a significantly different picture that basically stated the analysis, and anyone who bought into it was a fool, so you deleted it. Gotcha.

    05-07, first in runs scored twice, second once
    05-07, team era ranked 7th in AL one year, 8th another, and 9th another
    Result: 3 playoff appearances

    08, 7th in runs scored
    08, 8th in pitching (note the team era was the lowest of any of the recent years cited here)
    Result: missed playoffs

    Feel free to delete it again so as not to embarrass anyone.

  62. Phil December 5th, 2008 at 1:05 pm

    Ask the Atlanta Braves if pitching wins.

  63. Arliss December 5th, 2008 at 1:05 pm

    Mel – like the random drug testing reference.

  64. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 1:05 pm

    CB
    December 5th, 2008 at 12:54 pm
    “I’d think that the fast pace of Wang’s compared to the slower pace of Pettitte and Rasner had a lot to do with that.”

    That very well may be part of it.

    On the whole I think it has to do with all the dead worms.

    The yankee fielders actually appear to have better range when they play behind Wang. They are simply able to get to balls that they can’t get to when other yankee pitchers are throwing.

    It’s not just that Wang gets ground ball outs. He induces ground balls that appear to be much easier to field than average.

    This goes against much of the conventional wisdom in the world of baseball statistics where they assume that batted balls are largely random events.

    ———————————————————–

    I’ve only seen Pettitte’s basic numbers of the first four months against the last two months when the shoulder issues started. It would be curious to see the numbers you used based on those facts. 33 infield hits really ballooned his damage against.

    He basically quit using his cutter against right handed batters. The numbers are night and day. In the early months of the season, he seemed to work much faster and many of the hits were the cheap type. The homers were the only thing that was down.

  65. Trevor December 5th, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    Like I said: Sabathia Wang Pettitte Hughes Joba

  66. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 1:07 pm

    “I believe the payroll is around 130 million right now that plus the 51 million is 181 million. ”

    The payroll right now is around 144 million (mainly due to arbitration raises). Adding those players would mean a payroll right around 194 million.

  67. jennifer December 5th, 2008 at 1:08 pm

    miggs me too. Maybe if my statistics teacher used baseball instead of the other boring things they did I would have paid more attention.

  68. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:08 pm

    Arliss,

    Did you use bad words in your post?

    Peter won’t tolerate any of that kind of stuff, so maybe that was why?

    Who knows…otherwise, I see no reason why he would have deleted it.

  69. pat December 5th, 2008 at 1:09 pm

    “Go with a big bopper like Dunn to protect Arod.”

    Speaking of Dunn, I read somewhere this morning that he is working out like a fiend this off season, has already dropped 15 pounds and is in great shape. Might have to start calling him the Medium Donkey.

  70. Louis December 5th, 2008 at 1:09 pm

    If plan A is pitching, that also might not work, especially when you’re relying on Swisher, Posada, Cano & CF to have bounce back years, & Jeter, Damon, & Nady not to regress.

    Fact is, Yankees have a lot of holes to fill & it looks like they don’t have the resources to fill them all. Their best bet is to acquire some pitching & some hitting. But please, no bloated contracts to mid-level/risky talents like Derek Lowe & AJ Burnett.

  71. Arliss December 5th, 2008 at 1:10 pm

    Mad Prince – No bad words used in my original post.

  72. jennifer December 5th, 2008 at 1:11 pm

    Is Juice on the radio? Or is it courtv?

  73. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:12 pm

    On the subject of 1B, we also need to keep Jesus Montero in mind.

    I think its fair to hope that he remains a catcher, but if memory serves, it has been mentioned that he figures to be more of a 1B or OF, right?

    If he is a 1B, he’s only what, 2 years away? Then we have Teixeira’s HUGE contract…creates another logjam there not to mention the fact that Jeter is being suggested for 1B on top of god only knows what we’ll do with Posada in 2 or 3 years.

  74. Ariel December 5th, 2008 at 1:12 pm

    Assuming the Yankees fail in their attempt to get any “frontline” pitcher. No CC, AJ, DL etc, and Andy is not re-signed. The issue is not then whether to add quality ptching since that approach would have failed. the only question is “how much better” would the results be if the team had a strong offensive bent.

    I would be curious to see how the statistics would compare to a team with the current roster vs a roster augmented by Tex and Manny. Further, I would also like to see how the statistical analysis takes into account the potential for a dfference in A-rod’s performance were he sanwiched between Tex and Manny. Perhaps I’m really old school but I doubt that they can. Can a statistical analysis reveal a comparison as to how Big Papi would have performed during the period 04 – 07 with and Manny batting behind him?

    I don’t disagree with the notion that “pitching carries the day”, but if you assume your pitching is a constant, I find great difficulty in digesting any notion that if your offense is substantially improved your chances of winning will likewise not be improved….assuming also that your defense is the same or better.

  75. Dirk from Rockland December 5th, 2008 at 1:14 pm

    My wife just asked me what I wanted for Christmas– do you think that CC, Tex, and Andy was too much?….I should have told her that someone else would be paying for them.

  76. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 1:14 pm

    Sabathia and Burnett are top priority. And for hitting, I like the idea of moving Matsui and signing Manny. Matsui might not bring back a ‘frontline pitcher’ in a trade but his contract is definitely movable in this market. He’s only due 1 more year at 13 mil per in a market where Edgar Renteria just got nearly 10 mil per over 2 seasons.

    I would think a team like Seattle could generate a great deal of press if they united Matsui and Ichiro.

    They have Bedard but we have plenty of prospects to fill out a package based on Matsui.

    Damon’s even more valuable than Matsui because he’s a proven leadoff hitter in a market where no bona-fide leadoff hitters exist. He earns 13 mil per which is about the same amount Furcal will get each year over 3-4 years.

    Both Matsui and Damon will become type A free agents in all likelihood after 2009. We can’t get frontline pitchers for them but they definitely have value.

    Personally, I’d rather cash in Damon and Matsui now rather than take the draft picks later. This team needs major league ready talent now, especially position players.

    We can use our financial advantage to replace Matsui and Damon on the market with better players (say Manny and Furcal for instance).

  77. Arliss December 5th, 2008 at 1:15 pm

    Wait – I have just received word that my post was deleted due to the use of a word which may or may not in some languages be construed as a curse if spelled properly and hence, i was unable to make my point because I could not control myself.

    Let me try it again. The analysis put forth about offense and pitching is historically inaccurate as it relates to the Yankees in recent past and hence, I believe it to be a work of hyped idiocy.

    The Yankees did not have even average pitching in 2005-2007 yet they made the playoffs every year because they never scored less than 880 runs in each of those 3 seasons. Their pitching was actually better in 2008 than it was in 2005-2007, but since they didnt “mash” as they previously did, they missed the playoffs.

    Maybe I will go to nightschool and put together a bunch of charts and scatter plots and stuff to get people all excited over something that holds no water when tested. Sounds like a good time.

  78. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:15 pm

    Arliss,

    Email and ask him then…Pete’s an honest cat, he’ll tell you why he did it.

  79. the shining December 5th, 2008 at 1:15 pm

    I hope the Orioles land Burnett

  80. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 1:16 pm

    Correction: Other than Furcal, Damon would be the only leadoff hitter on the market if he’s on the trade block.

  81. church201 December 5th, 2008 at 1:16 pm

    LOL @ OJ

  82. jennifer December 5th, 2008 at 1:17 pm

    Just found it online. All I can say it YES!!

  83. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 1:17 pm

    As much as I like big offense I think an average offense with superior pitching can carry you through the playoffs. Just think if my proposed ideas go through. Here are some of my projections:

    CC Sabathia- 16-20 wins, 3.20-4.00 ERA, 200+ K’s, 200+IP.
    Chien Ming Wang- 16-20 wins, 3.50-4.00 ERA, 200+IP. Ridiculous ground-ball ratio.
    Ben Sheets(if healthy)- 14-18 wins, 3.00-4.00 ERA, 180+ IP, 180+K’s.
    Andy Pettitte- 14-18 wins, 4.00-4.50 ERA, 180+IP, 150+K’s.
    Joba Chamberlain(possible 25 starts)- 10-16 wins, 2.50-3.50 ERA, 150ish IP, 150+K’s.

    Regardless of the offense that rotation seems crazy. Also our offense isn’t terrible its just not a powerhouse and I can live with that.

  84. CB December 5th, 2008 at 1:17 pm

    There really is no “plan B.” There’s only making the best of very bad options.

    If they don’t sign CC this off season doesn’t matter much of what else they do.

    Tex is not even remotely close to the value CC would bring in 2009 given the yankee’s current holes in the rotation.

    If they miss out on CC then they’d have to definitely get Burnett and Lowe or get lucky with something unexpected happening.

    If they don’t fix the pitching there a serious risk for them having a disastrous season.

    If the pitching isn’t seriously upgraded they have almost no chance of making the playoffs. They can add Tex and Manny and it’s still not going to make up for the problems on the staff.

    This is no longer last year’s team – they’ve lost a 20 game winner who pitched to a 3.37 ERA and thew 200 innings. That changes everything going into next season.

    That’s the bottom line given the composition of the roster now. No enormous pitching upgrade – not much chance for success in 2009.

  85. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 1:18 pm

    Simpson just got at least 15 years, eligible for parole in 5 years.

  86. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 1:20 pm

    CB,

    So true, without Sabathia and Burnett I would say this team can’t compete with Boston and Tampa.

    We just saw Tampa defeat Boston’s superior offense with pitching in the postseason and a good but not great offense.

    Without the quality in their starting rotation, Tampa’s a last place team.

  87. jake December 5th, 2008 at 1:20 pm

    Peter, thank you for your cogent assessment. Every knowledgeable fan already knows that teams which prevent runs more effectively tend to win championships, but it is good to see it in print.
    It’s worth repeating that the great Yankees’ teams of the late-1990s had NO big-time home run mashers. But they had great pitching, good defense, and solid hitting with a high on-base percentage.
    It’s not as if the game has changed substantially since 1999. What worked then would work now. There would be nothing wrong with having Adam Dunn mashing as the DH. Heck, I’d love to see Dunn hitting 45 homeruns per year for the Yankees. But unless they have a +rotation, guys who can consistently catch and throw the ball out in the field, and guys who see more than 2.4 pitches per plate appearance #1-9, they’ll never win a championship.

  88. Ariel December 5th, 2008 at 1:21 pm

    I recall Paul DePodesta’s reign as Dodger GM. He is remembered as a slave to a computerized statistical analysis. His regime was an absolute disaster and he is buried somewhere in that vibrant Padre organization as a statistical geek.

    Statistical analysis is a guide in that it tells us what happened and provides you with a probabilty as to “what will happen” based on the same set of circumstances. That’s about it….I seriously doubt that any GM, other than a Paul DePodesta, will stake his reputation based mainly on statistics alone.

  89. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 1:21 pm

    “Ben Sheets(if healthy)- 14-18 wins, 3.00-4.00 ERA, 180+ IP, 180+K’s.”

    You’re dreaming!!!

  90. S.A.- CC Watch 2008: Making some Yankee fans go bonkers December 5th, 2008 at 1:21 pm

    OJ lol

  91. mel December 5th, 2008 at 1:22 pm

    Oh, no, CB. Not you, too!

    CC is key linchpin here, but it won’t be a disaster if he’s not signed. Otherwise, why bother following the Yankees?

    If we get neither CC nor AJ, yes we will suffer. In year 1. Yankee baseball goes back how far? And will go on for how much longer?

    I have to disagree with Ed, patience is a virtue!

  92. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 1:22 pm

    Fredo you can’t deny the validity of the WHOPPER projections. They have proven to be more reliable than PETCOTA or CAIRO.

  93. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 1:22 pm

    Correction: Simpson got 18 years, parole after 5 years but most likely will do 8 years minimum.

  94. JohnBlacksox December 5th, 2008 at 1:23 pm

    That’s interesting. I’ve said for a long time that to make baseball stats an apples to apples comparison, you should use Plate Apperances and Batters Faced.

    Plate Appearances for batters is identical to Batters Faced for pitchers.

    Given that, check this out…

    Jose Reyes was the MLB leader in PA for 2008, with 763.

    Roy Halladay was the MLB leader in BF for 2008, with 987. (How can Halladay be the leader? What about CC? He pitched like 300 innings. Oh well, not important.)

    Anyway, the point is that Halladay was involved in 30% more PA than Reyes was. So Halladay had a 30% greater impact on his team’s success or failure than Reyes did.

    That’s pretty amazing when you think about it. 30% is huge.

    I think people assume hitters and pitchers have equal impact, when in fact, your average starting pitcher will face many more hitters than your average hitter will face pitchers.

    30% more in the case of Halladay and Reyes.

  95. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 1:24 pm

    Thanks for the update GB7. I hope he’s in there for all 18 years.

  96. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 1:24 pm

    “We just saw Tampa defeat Boston’s superior offense with pitching in the postseason and a good but not great offense.”

    I’m not sure they were even good offensively. 9th in the league in runs. 13th in batting average. Rays were all about pitching and defense. They had plenty of that. One thing with the Rays is that I thought their bullpen overachieved and may have to do so again to make a similar run in ’09.

  97. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 1:24 pm

    The judge spent 11 minutes berating Simpson’s attempt to explain how he was unaware of wrong doing…calling him arrogant and stupid.

  98. CB December 5th, 2008 at 1:25 pm

    “I would be curious to see how the statistics would compare to a team with the current roster vs a roster augmented by Tex and Manny. Further, I would also like to see how the statistical analysis takes into account the potential for a dfference in A-rod’s performance were he sanwiched between Tex and Manny. Perhaps I’m really old school but I doubt that they can.”

    This is actually very easy to do. Any statistical model can do this.

    SG at the replacmentlevel yankee blog does this kind of thing all of the time.

    As an estimate replacing Swisher with Tex at first base would contribute 3 more wins. Manny is more complicated because it depends on where you play him. If you put manny in left and move Damon to center then that probably adds 4 wins (because you are essentially replacing Gardner with Manny). If ARod has a season more like he had in 2007 that’s an additional 3 wins.

    But again – the pitching this year is in much worse shape.

    Adding CC to the staff would lead to close to 6 more wins. Adding AJ or Lowe 3 more wins if they were replacing say Aceves.

    These are estimates but that’s roughly what you’d guess.

    http://www.replacementlevel.com/

  99. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:26 pm

    CB/Al from BK,

    EXACTLY.

    Deep starting pitching negates the need for a gnarly monster offense like 2007.

    And Fredo,

    Those numbers out of sheets, IF HEALTHY as he pointed out, are definitely possible.

  100. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 1:27 pm

    If we miss CC, its see ya in 2010. Then we can just wait for Montero, Jackson, Betances and Brackman to be ready.

  101. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 1:28 pm

    “Those numbers out of sheets, IF HEALTHY as he pointed out, are definitely possible.”

    Thanks for backing me up Mad Prince.

  102. jake December 5th, 2008 at 1:29 pm

    I also want to add that all is not lost if the Yanks do not sign CC Sabathia.
    CC should be their primary addition this off-season. And I’ve never been able to envision them signing both Sabathia AND Burnett, despite all the posturing.
    Oliver Perez can look terrible, at times, but I continue to believe he’s a micron away from being a consistently dominant starter. Ben Sheets is a better pitcher than Burnett, as long as he’s healthy. and Andy Pettitte, even if they have to pay him too much, would be a great back-end of the rotation guy.
    Wang/Sheets/Perez/Joba/Pettitte?
    Wang/Burnett/Perez/Joba/Pettitte?
    The Yankees wouldn’t have any reason to feel insecure going into battle with either of those rotations. And folks shouldn’t discount the possibility of Phils Coke and Hughes making their cases for starting jobs come April.

  103. Buddy Biancalana December 5th, 2008 at 1:29 pm

    Juice going to the slamma, Yahoo!

  104. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 1:29 pm

    “Those numbers out of sheets, IF HEALTHY as he pointed out, are definitely possible.”

    Cool. I’ll play along and ignore the evidence.

  105. Bobby December 5th, 2008 at 1:30 pm

    Now we’re being lectured that college kids are smarter than us.

    Awesome Pete!

  106. CB December 5th, 2008 at 1:31 pm

    mel,

    Sorry. Wasn’t trying to be too doom and gloom.

    No all is not lost. The point I was trying to make was that for 2009 and probably 2010, there is simply no comparison between Tex and CC to the yankees as a team. CC is much more valuable.

    So sure if you lose CC go after Tex. But it won’t be equivalent in any sense.

    We’d likely need some kind of surprise performance from Hughes or Aceves or sign Burnett and have him have a year at least as good as last year, stay completely healthy, etc.

    Without CC a lot of things need to fall into place perfectly. Not a lot of room for error.

  107. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:32 pm

    jake,

    great name by the way.

    if the yankees don’t get Sabathia, 2009 is going to be a rough year.

    what FA pitchers are available for th 2010 season?

  108. mel December 5th, 2008 at 1:33 pm

    Anyone watching the espn scroll? Gammons is reporting that CC is waiting for Tex to make his move and Lowe is waiting for CC.

    You’d think that the Angels would turn to Manny before CC.

  109. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 1:33 pm

    Arliss why would Pete delete that post? Puzzling.

    Fredo why do you act like you know more than anyone else? Those numbers out of Sheets are perfectly plausible if his elbow heals over the offseason, and there’s no reason why it shouldn’t.

  110. Ariel December 5th, 2008 at 1:33 pm

    Let’s see if I understand this concept of “no winning with offense”. If the pitching roster is as now stands (since all attempts will have failed to get the “good guys”) don’t bother to do whatever is necessary to get some Big Bats because you cannot win, so the “students” tell us.

    So, if in addition to signing Tex and Manny, the Cards offer to trade Pujols, even up for Shelly Duncan so he can be re-united with his father and brother and really blossom, Cashman shouldn’t do it since there is “no winning with offense”.

    I would then assume Cashman will hold a press conference and so advise the world.

  111. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:34 pm

    Fredo,

    Its called speculation.

    Do I personally think he’ll stay healthy? Absolutely NOT. Its Ben Sheets.

    If he did happen to, do I think he can put up those numbers? ABSOLUTELY. Its Ben Sheets.

  112. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:36 pm

    mel,

    I agree on your bit about Manny and the Angels if Teix didn’t work out, but the Angels might be thinking along the same lines as the Yankees: Pitching (beyond Tex).

    I mean, if the Angels know they can get CC at at less than what the Yankees are offering, its not like plugging him into their rotation would be all that bad.

    Certainly they could come up with a trade for a solid bat.

    I still see Teix in LA.

  113. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 1:37 pm

    Can the Angels just give Tex his 8 years 160 million already so we can get CC!

  114. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 1:37 pm

    “Gammons is reporting that CC is waiting for Tex to make his move and Lowe is waiting for CC.”

    And Tex is waiting for Lowe.

    What possible reason could CC have for waiting on Tex? Gammons reporting garbage like usual.

  115. mel December 5th, 2008 at 1:38 pm

    CB,

    A lot of things went wrong in ’08. Everything, in fact. And we still won 89 games. Statistics and replacement values would tell you we shouldn’t have been anywhere near that number.

    But the bullpen saved us on many nights. Holding almost every lead we had (Mo was the lone blown lead?). Keeping us in games until we scratched the winning run.

    So you just never know who the engine will be, you never know where it’ll come from. Stats can’t predict that.

    It’s difficult to believe in a flawed team such as the currently constructed Yankees, but no one would’ve believed that the Cardinals would’ve won it all a few years ago or that the ’08 Rays would go from worst to nearly first.

  116. CB December 5th, 2008 at 1:39 pm

    “I recall Paul DePodesta’s reign as Dodger GM. He is remembered as a slave to a computerized statistical analysis. His regime was an absolute disaster and he is buried somewhere in that vibrant Padre organization as a statistical geek.”

    Not true. This is just a myth. DePodesta was fired because he was a twit. He had no personal skills at all and alienated the dodgers fanbase, the press and parts of the organization. The bizarre Dodger ownership was also part of that situation.

    As it turned out DePodesta did a great job of acquiring talent. Many of the good young players on the dodgers were acquired when he was GM.

    It wasn’t about him being buried in stats. He was just kind of clueless when it comes how to communicate with people and how to lead an organization. That coupled with the dodgers being a bizarre organization.

    He’s now the assistant GM with the padres. He’s the first executive in baseball to have his own blog (it’s interesting read…). I wondered if that blog is his way of working on his communication issues that plagued him with the dodgers.

    Many people think he’ll be the next GM in san diego when towers leaves.

  117. Peter Abraham December 5th, 2008 at 1:41 pm

    Arliss:

    Your original post was deleted because you used implied curses to make your point.

    As to what you managed to repost without obscenities, sure, the Yankees can make the playoffs without above average pitching. But isn’t the idea to win the World Series? Now that the Rays have established a rotation that is only going to improve with the addition of David Price, the Yankees need to build a team around pitching more than ever.

    Signing Tex and Manny would be the road to ruin for the Yankees. They need at least two starters. I don’t see how anybody can deny that.

    Teixeira is a great player and would be a nice fit But they aren’t spending to old levels in this economy. That seems pretty obvious.

  118. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 1:42 pm

    GB7,
    Did they give OJ those extra 3 years for past murders? He still got off easy.

  119. Trevor December 5th, 2008 at 1:42 pm

    No CC, then it’s time to rebuild. Signing Texiera & Manny is a repeat of the previous 7 years of the big name bats locked into ridiculous contracts.
    That’s not a good philosophy unless you want to be the Texes Rangers of the 90′s.

  120. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:44 pm

    Patrick,

    CC is waiting on Teixeira because if Teixeira doesn’t sign with the Angels, he knows that the Angels very well may turn their attention to him.

    Who knows if there is any truth to this…could just be Gammons posturing for the Sox like always.

  121. pat December 5th, 2008 at 1:44 pm

    “What possible reason could CC have for waiting on Tex? Gammons reporting garbage like usual.”

    Tex goes East, Angels have money to play with. Question is would they use it on CC or Manny? CC is leading the parade but once again Boras is directing the band.

  122. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 1:46 pm

    “What possible reason could CC have for waiting on Tex? Gammons reporting garbage like usual.”

    Gee I don’t know….. maybe because Tex is the main focus of the Angels and CC wants to play there? No that can’t be it. That makes too much sense.

  123. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 1:46 pm

    Manny’s looking for 3 years which means big spenders are more likely to want to make him the DH to get maximum bang for their buck. I don’t see him in LF for 3 more very long years and I would be weary to invest in him if he comes with defense.

    Somebody was talking about Vlad being moved to DH in the near future so Manny complicates the situation with the Angels.

    If their plan is to move Vlad to DH, I can understand whey they seemed to have gone to great lengths to improve their offense through Tex. They traded Kotchman to get Tex and cut ties with G. Anderson (another DH) and Francisco Rodriguez to clear room in their budget.

    I don’t see Manny fitting in with the Angels team anymore. I see Tex going there.

    The market for Manny seems to be between the Dodgers and NYY.

    NYY have an advantage over the Dodgers because Manny wants 3 years and 3 years in LF seems to greatly diminish his value to an NL team whereas the DH makes him a much better investment for the Yanks.

    Also, with Manny on the Dodgers, they would have 5 outfielders:

    Ethier
    Kemp
    Jones
    Pierre
    Manny

    Manny will be a Yankee

  124. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 1:46 pm

    Fredo,
    I have to agree with the other posters. If Lee can win cy young after a not so great deal. Why cant a healthy Sheets pitch under 4 and win 18 games? Hell half of us wanted Moose in the bullpen after an over 5 era and he came out aces. Sheets is an ACE when healthy and better than Lee or Moose IMO.

  125. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:46 pm

    Peter,

    Thank you very much.

    You are 100% correct.

  126. BBB December 5th, 2008 at 1:47 pm

    While I agree that pitching is needed and there is no “winning with offense…not solely winning with offense anyway, I think the Phillies proved in this past year’s WS that there is such a thing as winning with OBP, that that fabled uber-clutchiness isn’t needed as long as you make outs at a lesser rate than the other team.

    That’s why I would like to see the Yankees become a pitching-first, OBP-second, homeruns-third kind of team.
    Fortunately I am fairly certain the FO is on the same page.

  127. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 1:48 pm

    SOS funny comment on OJ…….

    To answer your question from yesterday, I relocated back east a few months ago. Before you ask, yes I miss SD.

  128. CB December 5th, 2008 at 1:49 pm

    mel,

    Your right. You never know. I’m just banging my tin cup against the jail bars of probability…

    Baseball is strange because its prone towards sudden jumps in performance that can be completely unexpected (this is especially true of pitcher – see Aaron Small…).

    So you can never know. Last year Peter Gammons and Keith Law were picking Phil Hughes to be a dark horse contender for Cy Young.

    Didn’t happen last year. But who knows this year.

    That said – just looking over the probability of winning in different scenarios…

    Life gets so much easier in the bronx if the once could have been hawaii rainbows tight end sign on for the $140M.

  129. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 1:50 pm

    “No that can’t be it. That makes too much sense. ”

    Congrats you are the third person to tell me this. You were also the only one that came off as a condescending jerk.

    I was mistaken, I hadn’t thought about CC’s desire to play in Anaheim.

  130. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 1:52 pm

    Patrick I was only responding to your post the way you usually respond to mine.

  131. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 1:52 pm

    S.o.S.
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
    GB7,
    Did they give OJ those extra 3 years for past murders? He still got off easy.

    ————————————————————

    No the concurrent sentences totaled 18 years, eligible for parole after 5 years, but, accoring to the Nevada lawyer, he said that it always takes at least two times in front of the parole board. It is conceivable that the parole board holds those murders against him, because he was acquited as far as the law goes, he was found fully responsible in the lawsuit. He’ll be at least 70 years old whenthe gates swing open again. The judge also rejected any bail during all appeals because of flight risk.

  132. bdog375 December 5th, 2008 at 1:53 pm

    “there is no “winning with offense.” ”

    I do not disagree that pitching is important, but this is a really bold statement. Especially considering the current WS Champs, the Phillies, won with really only one good starting pitcher.

  133. mel December 5th, 2008 at 1:53 pm

    *Brandon (TEIX IS NOT WORTH IT, GET CC !)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
    December 5th, 2008 at 11:27 am
    Al he’s been cheating on her w/ a latin model google Melissa Brito. It’s was news last night.

    BTW they just announced AJ is about to sign w/ Atlanta for 4 yrs. according to ESPN radio.

    Brandon,

    Is this you and did you really hear it?

  134. riyankeefan777 December 5th, 2008 at 1:53 pm

    Arliss:

    Your original post was deleted because you used implied curses to make your point.

    “As to what you managed to repost without obscenities, sure, the Yankees can make the playoffs without above average pitching. But isn’t the idea to win the World Series? Now that the Rays have established a rotation that is only going to improve with the addition of David Price, the Yankees need to build a team around pitching more than ever.

    Signing Tex and Manny would be the road to ruin for the Yankees. They need at least two starters. I don’t see how anybody can deny that.

    Teixeira is a great player and would be a nice fit But they aren’t spending to old levels in this economy. That seems pretty obvious.”

    peter, i dont deny that what we need first and foremost is pitching, hopefully cc! but if for some reason we dont land him, why not try sheets first and grab a bat as well. i cant see any other fa pitcher being worth it before tex! aj is injury prone, and he lacks heart! ( sounds too much like pavano to me

  135. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 1:55 pm

    Mel I think that report is legit.

    And I think it really was Brandon…

  136. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    CB
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:49 pm

    Your right. You never know. I’m just banging my tin cup against the jail bars of probability…

    ———————————————————-

    You are now and forever more, known as OJ CB.

  137. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    Miggs/Patrick,

    You guys havin a lovers quarrel?

    THIS IS A JOKE!!! I’m just teasing.

  138. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    “Patrick I was only responding to your post the way you usually respond to mine. ”

    Haha okay guy.

  139. Phil December 5th, 2008 at 1:56 pm

    The adjustments in this economy are not gonna be on the great players. They are gonna be on the flawed players who aren’t gonna make in the teens of millions anymore.

  140. Brandon (TEIX IS NOT WORTH IT, GET CC !)..."Don't trade Robi !" December 5th, 2008 at 1:57 pm

    Yes mel and I did hear that. It was on Max Kellerman’s show break.

    “Olney says the Yankees would ask for Chad Billingsley or Clayton Kershaw from the Dodgers for Robinson Cano. After the Dodgers turn down that request, the Yanks will ask for Matt Kemp. If the Yankees do move Cano, they could then pursue Orlando Hudson.”

    Now you people heard me continue to say don’t trade Robi, don’t trade Robi, if Kershaw and only Kershaw is possible for a Cano/Sanchez type deal I’ll gift wrap him for ya.

  141. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 1:57 pm

    Miggs,
    Times are tough right now. Im in the worst business to be in at this moment. I would go where the money is. Yes there isnt anything better than SD weather/beatiful women/city. But you cant enjoy any of that when your more worried about your income. Take it from me. All i can say is make as much money as you can and come on down!! Its not going anywhere.

  142. Yankeepelotero December 5th, 2008 at 1:57 pm

    Pete, the Yankees CAN make the playoffs solely on mashing. they have done it before (2004, 2005, 2006). The problem is once they’re there, pitching takes charge and you can’t win a championship without it because you always face elite pitching in the playoffs in short series’. So as annoyed as you are of people wanting Mark Texiera, the student’s are partially right. Pitching will get you a higher chance of winning the WS but a team CAN make the playoffs based on offense. at the end of the day pitching matters BUT let’s not forget that the object of the game is to score more runs than the opponent NOT prevent the opponent from scoring a certain amount of runs. Bottom line, pitching is definitely needed but we’ll fool our selves if we are going to “HOPE” that Matsui, Damon, Nady and Swisher have good enough years to make up for what they have lost in offense. “Hoping” that your offense scores more than 3 runs a game is not the same as “knowing” they’ll score more than 3 runs a game to win games. So for you or ANYBODY for that matter to be settled with the offense the way it is, its a foolish thing to do.

  143. Ariel December 5th, 2008 at 1:57 pm

    Peter,

    No one seriously denies that the number one need in starting pitching.

    However, if Cashman strikes out on all fronts…no CC, no AJ, no DL, no Peavy, and is forced to go with what’s on the roster, and cannot get the “two starters” you so correctly state are needed, do you still maintain that “(s)igning Tex and Manny would be the road to ruin for the Yankees”?

    What would you then suggest the Yankees do? Nothing? Throw the towel in on the season? Not pursue the possiblilty that a lineup with Tex, Arod and Manny, (the collective hitting prowess of which has not been seen in many a year) can effectively compete and possibly win but will be the “road to disaster”?

  144. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 1:59 pm

    Brandon,

    What Sanchez are you referring to?

  145. yanks22 December 5th, 2008 at 1:59 pm

    get derek lowe!

  146. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:00 pm

    The Mad Prince in Pinstripes
    December 5th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
    Brandon,

    What Sanchez are you referring to?

    ————————————————————

    Senor Dirty

  147. Phil December 5th, 2008 at 2:01 pm

    Humberto Sanchez is the Yankee Sanchez.

  148. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 2:01 pm

    Humberto Sanchez

  149. Brandon (TEIX IS NOT WORTH IT, GET CC !)..."Don't trade Robi !" December 5th, 2008 at 2:02 pm

    “What Sanchez are you referring to?”

    El sucio

    http://www.nypost.com/seven/02.....ks093a.jpg

  150. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 2:03 pm

    “BTW they just announced AJ is about to sign w/ Atlanta for 4 yrs. according to ESPN radio.”

    Good. Hes out of the A.L.east and now we can go sign Sheets.

  151. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 2:03 pm

    Ariel,

    Massive contracts to Manny and Teix, believe it or not, ties the hands of the Yankees down the road. That is a HUGELY GROSS ERROR to make if you miss out on FA targets.

    Theoretically, if the Yankees miss out on CC, Sheets, Burnett, Lowe, etc., they are going to be A)forced to give pettitte more than he is worth, B) give the young pups an earlier opportunity than they might prefer and/or C) find dumpy inning eaters to get them through the season and/or D) trade prospects for a starter and raked over the coals like they would have with Santana.

    They won’t miss out on all of those guys. I think Cashman is going to have a good idea about Sabathia by the end of the weekend.

  152. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 2:04 pm

    Cano for Kershaw? What Yankee fan could possibly say no to that deal?

    Its never going to happen though. I’d say there’s a 98% chance Cano is still with the Yankees next year.

  153. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 2:04 pm

    If we could get Billingsley I might trade Cano. However Kershaw is too raw to trade a proven all-star for.

  154. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 2:05 pm

    Ah yes, Humberto…

    Green Beret, AWESOME response…I walked myself right into that one! hahahaha

  155. MichiganYankee December 5th, 2008 at 2:05 pm

    Mad Prince,

    “PITCHING WINS, always has.”
    Try telling that to the Toronto Blue Jays. The best pitching staff in baseball got them a 4th-place finish.

    “And yes, I know Teixeira plays better defense, but Swisher can fill that void and add at least a decent bat to the lineup for the time being.”
    Yes, but with Tex at 1st, Swisher can provide an offensive and defensive upgrade in right field.

    “But 1B? Too much depth in the league at 1B.”
    Which league are you talking about? Pujols and Berkman are both in the NL. Before Tex came to Anaheim, the very average Justin Morneau was the AL’s best 1st baseman.

    Granted, the Yankees need to upgrade their rotation, but they are closer than most people seem to think. Wang and Joba had injuries, Hughes and Kennedy had growing pains, and Pettitte had a shortened Spring Training and an abnormally high BABIP (without a high line-drive rate, which indicates bad defense/bad luck). The chance of Hughes, Kennedy OR Acevedes realizing his potential is certainly greater than the chance of Posada, Cano AND A-Rod repeating their 2007 performances (which is what the we’ve-got-enough-offense crowd seems to be depending on). Besides, the Yankees have a storehouse full of live arms on the farm. The next CC may well be in the Yankee system. The next Mark Teixeira is certainly not.

    CC will give the Yankees the best chance to win this year and the next, but his contract will likeely become an albatross by the back-end. AJ is a crapshoot. He could be an ace or an albatross off the bat.

    My vote: Lowe (3 years with vesting option for a 4th), Pettitte (1 year) and Tex.

  156. bigjf December 5th, 2008 at 2:05 pm

    If those students could post their presentations online and send a link to them, that’d be really cool. I’d love to see them.

  157. mel December 5th, 2008 at 2:06 pm

    Brandon,

    Sorry. Had to ask. Nothing on SI nor ESPN’s websites. And it really doesn’t make sense.

    1. Toronto Sun had quotes from his agent saying they haven’t narrowed it down yet.

    2. AJ’s attracting more interest than CC, why jump at a…

    3. 4 yr./$60M deal when…

    4. Toronto was willing to give an extension worth $54M…

    5. And neither the Yankees nor Boston have submitted formal offers?

  158. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 2:06 pm

    SOS I’m glad I sold my house when I did.

    It is better to be here when you’re in my line of work and I guess the job market is better in general here, but there are aspects of that life that I really miss.

    I’m going to try and stack some more chips here (while freezing my butt off) then buy another house in SD in a few years when values are really low.

  159. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 2:06 pm

    SoS, you know, the more I hear about Sheets and the possibility of signing him for just three years, the more intriguing it sounds.

    Just not sure though…2009 alone would be a definite need with consideration to our bleak rotation at current, but that injury history is downright frightening.

  160. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:09 pm

    Does anyone think Teixeria requested Cashman to meet with him because the Yanks are Teixiera’s top choice?

  161. Nick in SF December 5th, 2008 at 2:10 pm

    “”CC is key linchpin here, but it won’t be a disaster if he’s not signed. Otherwise, why bother following the Yankees?”

    Interesting question. There’s a school of thought that, without CC, the Yankees will be less likely to successfully contend for the postseason in 2009. I am one who subscribes to that view.

    If you, as a fan, thought that the Yankees were less likely to contend sucessfully for the postseason than they might be under a scenario that did not come to pass, would you then follow the Yankees less?

    To put it another way, would you only bother to follow the Yankees if you reasonably thought they were properly constructed to win a title?

    In the 2008 season, the Yankees were struck by several disasters. Did they cause you to stop bothering to follow the Yankees?

  162. Laura - The Hot Stove is Stone cold! December 5th, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    Pitching and offense go hand in hand. How many games did we lose last season where we got good or at least decent starts from the pitcher, but the offense was in a coma? Pitching is great, but you need a strong offense and a competent defense as well. I’m all for us signning top of the line starters, but we have to address the offense as well. Cashman is dreaming if he thinks that losing both Abreu and Giambi isn’t going to hurt. It’s going to hurt big time. And no, Swisher is not the answer.

  163. Arliss December 5th, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    Yes – the idea is to win the world series, 100% agree with that, but the premise of the original post was that the yankees wouldnt make the post season by loading up on offense and that is just inaccurate based on recent history.

    Had you changed this sentence, I may not have taken up this argument:

    “The idea that they could sign two hitters and simply mash their way to the playoffs is not a solid one or especially valid based on the statistics I saw last night.”

  164. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    Ed I was thinking the exact same thing.

    Quite a different attitude than the Yankees are getting from the CC camp huh?

  165. CB December 5th, 2008 at 2:11 pm

    For what its worth, AJ agent told Dave O’Brien from the Atlanta Constitution that he plans on holding discussions at the winter meetings so I’m not sure how that fits with reports of AJ’s imminent signing.

    Interestingly, O’brien wrote this on his blog regarding Atlanta interest n AJ:

    “The Braves, frankly, are in desperate need of an ace. The World Champion Phillies are not. Burnett, when healthy like he was in 2008, is absolutely an overpowering ace.”

    High expectations for Burnett if that’s the club’s/ fanbases expectations.

    http://www.ajc.com/blogs/conte.....jc/braves/

  166. Jeff NJ December 5th, 2008 at 2:12 pm

    Any proof on that AJ to the Braves rumor?

  167. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:13 pm

    The Mad Prince in Pinstripes
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:05 pm
    Ah yes, Humberto…

    Green Beret, AWESOME response…I walked myself right into that one! hahahaha

    ————————————————————

    Sorry. It was just too easy to pass up. He’s a natural for that nicknam bcause of his filthy stuff when he recoves.

  168. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:14 pm

    Miggs,

    let’s hope our spectulations are true, if not then no big deal.

  169. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 2:14 pm

    AJ’s agent must be lovin’ this early action.

  170. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pm

    Correction: ***Sorry. It was just too easy to pass up. He’s a natural for that nickname because of his filthy stuff when he recovers.***

  171. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pm

    “Does anyone think Teixeria requested Cashman to meet with him because the Yanks are Teixiera’s top choice?”

    Teixiera didn’t ask for the meeting, Boras did.

  172. The Mad Prince in Pinstripes December 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pm

    MichiganYankee,

    Justin McGowan got hurt on the Jays…getting Tommy John surgery.

    We have Nady for Right Field, Swisher is a 1B, not an OF even if he can play there.

    My point on 1Bs is that there are far more options than their are elite starting pitchers like Sabathia. I’m not saying you’re arguing in favor of Tex OVER CC, but 1B is a much deeper position at which you can teach players to play much more easily than others.

    I simply believe that 1B is going to be another logjam for the Yankees before people might realize. Posada has maybe 2 years of catching left in him…then what? 1B or DH. Jeter has maybe 2 years left at SS…then what? OF, 1B, DH? Montero, if we hang on to him, is probably two or three years away..then what? 1B or OF since scouts are saying he may not remain a catcher (though I hope he does).

    In terms of Hughes and Kennedy, its nice to have those options, but Hughes needs more time in AAA to continue developing pitches. He will not be successful as a starter with 2 pitches…those types are rare. Kennedy should be trade bait IMO. If he is pitching so well in AFL, AAA, trade him while his value is high.

    Hughes should figure into the rotation in 2010 while starting 2009 in AAA and joining up in August to pitch long relief and spot starts.

  173. JohnBlacksox December 5th, 2008 at 2:15 pm

    Sorry, this is off topic, but I just came across the ideal holiday gift for ARod…

    http://www.buy.com/retail/prod.....caid=17902

  174. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:17 pm

    “Teixiera didn’t ask for the meeting, Boras did.”

    same thing. probably Boras wanted to see what would Cashman would offer first.

  175. jennifer December 5th, 2008 at 2:19 pm

    Maybe he’ll give the Yankees a ‘discount’.

  176. mel December 5th, 2008 at 2:20 pm

    Nick,

    You read me wrong. I meant why follow the Yankees at all if your only criteria is that they make it to the playoffs?

    No CC–>disaster–>even though you may make it to the playoffs without him–>false logic because lots of teams, including the Yankees have done it without CC.

    Yes, I agree that CC greatly increases your chances of making the playoffs. But he alone guarantees nothing, so I don’t subscribe to the all eggs in CC basket line of thinking when it comes to Yankee success.

  177. Brandon (TEIX IS NOT WORTH IT, GET CC !)..."Don't trade Robi !" December 5th, 2008 at 2:20 pm

    JohnBlack for you

    http://cgi.ebay.com/2008-Alex-.....m153.l1262

  178. We need the big guy!! December 5th, 2008 at 2:20 pm

    If the Angels do not get Tex because he goes to Boston then the Angels would be smart to go to plan B,C,D and E on offense before they even consider CC. Manny should be plan B for them then Dunn, Burrell and Abreu. If they lose Tex and sign CC for say $120m that is a total waste of money for them and they didn’t address anything this off season. But I don’t think Boston is serious about Tex anyway. They just have nothing else to do but raise prices for everyone else.

  179. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 2:23 pm

    “Does anyone think Teixeria requested Cashman to meet with him because the Yanks are Teixiera’s top choice?”

    I would think we are his top choice however we need CC we can live without Tex.

  180. mel December 5th, 2008 at 2:26 pm

    The odds of Tex being a Yankee are better than CC being an Angel.

  181. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:28 pm

    Al,

    Gammons says that Sabathia won’t sign until Teixeira signs, and that Lowe won’t sign until Sabathia does.

  182. Ariel December 5th, 2008 at 2:28 pm

    Kershaw is the jewel of the Dodger organization. Irrespective of how much Torre and Bowa would push, it’s highly unlikely Colletti would go for it.

    And the Yankees shouldn’t either, as he is still a year or so away. To me, Cano is a keeper. If what we hear as to his workouts with and without Long, in the DR, this could well be a banner season for him, exceeding each and any previous level.

  183. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 2:29 pm

    “Does anyone think Teixeria requested Cashman to meet with him because the Yanks are Teixiera’s top choice?”

    I think whoever pays the most money is his top choice. As the Yankees have the most money, Boras knows that at the very least, he has to have people believing the Yankees are in the bidding. I don’t think there is any reason to believe he’d play for the Yankees if their offer isn’t the best one.

  184. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:30 pm

    If NYY tries to sign both Sabathia and Teixeira, they need to sign them together, which gives the Angels no time to shift targets.

  185. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 2:31 pm

    Mad Prince,
    Not long ago we signed the most coveted free agent pitcher of that year and his number will end up getting retired..uhhh i mean burned. Pitchers are like a box of chocolate. Thats why i would roll the dice on Sheets for a 2 year deal options of a 3rd. Maybe even bring in Penny for 1. Can they end up being pavanoed this year. Yes. But so can Burnett or any other stud.

  186. mel December 5th, 2008 at 2:31 pm

    If CC’s going to wait around for an offer from the Angels that’s probably not coming, I would pull the Yankee offer and sign Tex.

    Then CC can take his pick of $100M offers from the Dodgers, Giants, and Brewers because the Angels will probably sign Manny.

  187. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 2:31 pm

    “Al,

    Gammons says that Sabathia won’t sign until Teixeira signs, and that Lowe won’t sign until Sabathia does.”

    Ed- I don’t trust anything Gammons says. I think If the Yanks have a good talk with CC this weekend and the Angels still haven’t contacted CC by next week he will take our deal. It gets to a point where a player feels unwanted by the team they desire I feel that point is coming soon for CC.

  188. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:32 pm

    Some Steelers fan just told Francessa to be quiet while he talks. Francessa hung up on him.

  189. Rishi December 5th, 2008 at 2:32 pm

    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ml?eref=T1

    _______________

    GM for a day

  190. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:34 pm

    “If NYY tries to sign both Sabathia and Teixeira, they need to sign them together, which gives the Angels no time to shift targets.”

    if only…since Sabathia is going to a fight this weekend, I’m sure Cashman will make his night worth while.

  191. thisguy December 5th, 2008 at 2:35 pm

    the fact is you need both to win…many people on here believe we lost last year because of our offense…so why do we now ignore offense completely? however, you can win many different ways on offense: small ball, long ball, speed, etc.

    the job is to build the best team possible.

    sign CC, then sign sheets to a 2 year deal with a 3rd year option (if not sheets, than lowe for 3 years), bringing back andy at 10 mill are all things that would certainly help.

    of course we are just guessing as to what sheets and lowe will demand/want in the end.

    andy for 1 more year will help more than it’ll hurt.

    cc-wang-sheets/lowe-joba-andy-then hughes

    and as for cano for kemp…i may have to do that deal. kemp may actually be better, or at least have the upside to be better than cano. you can have kemp play center this season, and then move him to left field in 2010. and of course you would have to sign orlando hudson to a 3 or 4 year deal if you were to do that deal. so it is really 2 moves, not 1.

    damon-jeter-kemp-arod-matsui-posada-nady-hudson-swisher

    kemp had experience batting 1-2-3 in LA…you could always move matsui to 3rd in the order…but im worried about the health and effectiveness of these old position players…can only hope they have one more (matsui, damon) good year left in em. 1 through 4 gives us speed. and of course there is posada’s health in question.

  192. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:35 pm

    Rishi
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ml?eref=T1

    _

    GM for a day

    ———————————————————–

    Those deals are worse than the worst deals thought up onthis board.

  193. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pm

    Well if you don’t trade Cano for Kemp and replace Cano with Furcal then 3 huge questions pop up for 2010.

    1)Who becomes the leadoff hitter after Damon?

    2)Who plays left field assuming Swisher remains at 1b where he is better defensively?

    3)Who plays center field assuming Swisher remains at 1b?

    Trading Cano for Kemp and signing Furcal answers 2 of those questions.

  194. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pm

    Al,

    if the Yanks sign Teixiera and Sabathia together, ESPN would be hating on us. lol

  195. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 2:37 pm

    “The odds of Tex being a Yankee are better than CC being an Angel.”

    mel,
    If the angels lose out on Tex, you can bet they will go full blown on C.C.. I would refrase your sentence to say “the odds of tex being a yankee is looking greater than C.C.”. I think one goes to U.S.California,SoCal,los angeles,O.C.anaheim and the other comes here.

  196. Bob Mac December 5th, 2008 at 2:37 pm

    The pitching versus offense argument is really simple. Certainly, to win in the regular season scoring more than you allow in whatever method will cause a winning record. Yes, games can be won 8-6 and not only 2-1. I haven’t looked at the stats lately, but I bet the Yankees gave up less runs last year than in the few prior years yet they lost. Why? Their offense was so far down that the run margin significantly reduced. Of course, a team needs pitching, but I for one can’t stomach another year of 50+ games of 2 or less runs. Even with good pitching nearly all of those games will be lost. Where will the runs come in 2010 when Damon and Matsui will be gone, and Posada and all the old gang will be older? I vote, and I’m sure Cashman weighs what I say as heavily as my teenagers, one #1 type pitcher(preferably CC, but if not Burnett, a #3 starter and Teixiera. Can’t afford it? I say can’t afford not to.

  197. CB December 5th, 2008 at 2:38 pm

    If somehow Ned Colletti has the kind of stroke required to agree to trading Clayton Kershaw for Cano, then Hal should charter Cano his own private jet to get him to LA for the physical before someone in Dodger land wakes up.

    Kershaw may have better stuff than David Price. Price is the better pitcher right now. But Kershaw may have the better arm and better stuff. You just can’t trade a left handed pitcher like that.

    There is no chance the Dodgers are going to trade Kershaw. Nevermind for Cano.

    The dodgers have a weird, inefficient checks and balances in their FO. Collettis clueless, but Logan White who oversees their draft and development has McCourt’s ear.

    When Colletti gets some crazy idea to trade a young player for an over the hill veteran White has been able to quash it.

    That’s why they are so difficult to make trades with. Too many decision makers.

    BTW I thought it was great that when the Dodgers were discussing the trade for Jack Wilson they were demanding that the Pirates pick up all of Wilson’s salary.

    Amazing how the LA team is trying to get the Bucs to eat $7.5M. Especially when the Bucs are trying to get rid of Wilson’s salary.

    The Dodgers are a mess. If they don’t want to pay Jack Wilson when they’ve already said goodbye to Furcal what makes anyone think they are seriously pay Manny or get into the CC bonanza?

  198. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:38 pm

    Ed – patience isn’t a virtue to some people
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:34 pm
    “If NYY tries to sign both Sabathia and Teixeira, they need to sign them together, which gives the Angels no time to shift targets.”

    if only…since Sabathia is going to a fight this weekend, I’m sure Cashman will make his night worth while.

    ———————————————————–

    OK, Ed. Try and behave yourself today. When we’re talking gossip about hockey players and ice skaters and their dates, try staying on the subject….none of that silly baseball talk.

  199. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:39 pm

    “Who becomes the leadoff hitter after Damon?”

    his name is Derek Jeter.

  200. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:40 pm

    GB,

    lol…ok i will try to behave today. i….promise!

  201. Doreen December 5th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

    If CC is waiting for Tex who is waiting for Lowe who is waiting for CC, or whatever, the Yankees just need to get all three together and sign them ALL together. (Not that I particularly want Derek Lowe; I don’t.) Have one gigunda press conference, announce themselves Kings of the World. Then life can go on and we can all (mostly all) live happily ever after (until the first loss of the season, anyway!) :)

  202. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 2:41 pm

    Can someone tell me if Long took some ex major/current league pitchers to the Dominican to help pitch to Cano? Or do the just have a pitchers tryouts to see who can throw in that country. Serious question.

  203. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 2:42 pm

    Derek Jeter will be turning 36 in 2010. Not a good choice for leadoff.

  204. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:42 pm

    Bret the Hitman
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:36 pm
    Well if you don’t trade Cano for Kemp and replace Cano with Furcal then 3 huge questions pop up for 2010.

    1)Who becomes the leadoff hitter after Damon?

    2)Who plays left field assuming Swisher remains at 1b where he is better defensively?

    3)Who plays center field assuming Swisher remains at 1b?

    Trading Cano for Kemp and signing Furcal answers 2 of those questions.

    ————————————————————

    What it does is gives you a bad fielding second baseman who’s slowing down and a center fielder who will outgrow the outfield within two years.

  205. jennifer December 5th, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    Cc is waiting to see where v-tek signs.

  206. Nick in SF December 5th, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    You’re right, mel, I did misread you, though I think the inference I drew follows more logically from what you wrote than what you really meant. But what you meant makes more sense than the incorrect inference, of course.

    Anyway, I don’t think anyone –unless you take Al’s flame-broiled rhetoric seriously– is really suggesting that the Yankees won’t figure out some way to at least try to contend if we don’t land CC. We just think that CC on the roster gives us the very best chance to contend.

  207. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    If there’s any chance that trade for Kershaw could happen the Yankees staff would be great for years to come. Imagine Joba, Wang, Kershaw, and CC for the next 5 years?

    Wow. Just wow.

  208. Rishi December 5th, 2008 at 2:43 pm

    yet stated with such conviction!!

  209. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 2:44 pm

    “Al,

    if the Yanks sign Teixiera and Sabathia together, ESPN would be hating on us. lol”

    Peter Gammons and Steve Phillips would take a paid leave so they wouldn’t have to cope with all the Yankee news.

  210. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:44 pm

    Ed – patience isn’t a virtue to some people
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:40 pm
    GB,

    lol…ok i will try to behave today. i….promise!

    ———————————————————–

    Well, just remember…Santa Claus is watching and he doesn’t like trouble makers.

  211. Patrick December 5th, 2008 at 2:46 pm

    CB,

    True about Kershaw, he’s near the same level as Joba. Joba’s pitches have more polish but Kershaw is younger and the high ceiling is there. Plus he’s a lefty.

  212. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:47 pm

    “Derek Jeter will be turning 36 in 2010. Not a good choice for leadoff.”

    Jeter bats over 300 when leading off.

  213. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 2:47 pm

    “Cc is waiting to see where v-tek signs.”

    I hope this was a joke.

    Kershaw is great but Cano will bounce back and have a good year. No reason to quit on him and plus Colletti would be burnt at the stake for trading Kershaw.

  214. mel December 5th, 2008 at 2:48 pm

    SoS,

    I dunno. They have an ace in Lackey and they’ll probably save some of the pitching budget to re-up him next season.

  215. Miggs December 5th, 2008 at 2:48 pm

    GB have there been any hair dresser sightings lately?

  216. pat December 5th, 2008 at 2:48 pm

    A-Rod does many things that make people shake their heads and they are all reported on but someone just sent me the People Magazine article from today and he deserves an Atta Boy for this that I haven’t seen written about in any NY paper. To whom much is given…..

    Alex is “….funding the completion of a Pediatric Outpatient Unit at Bronx-Lebanon Hospital Center in New York City; funding a Community DentCare Network at Columbia University College of Dental Medicine (to provide preventative dental services for kids); and completing a new learning center at the Boys and Girls Club in Miami that A-Rod himself frequented as a child”

  217. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 2:48 pm

    Doreen,
    I like the idea. Iv always thought the Yankees should just sign the whole league. Have tryouts,dump the Bettemet of the team and win the championship. Whats wrong with monopolizing baseball? As long as its us doing it of coarse.

  218. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 2:48 pm

    Green Barrette,

    Furcal is 31. At the end of a 4 year deal, he’d be the same age as Derek Jeter in 2009. Slowing down? Before he got injured last year he was hitting in the mid .300′s and swiping bases left and right. Billy Beane is interested in Furcal and he’s as fiscally conservative as any GM in baseball. Why would he be so willing to splurge on Furcal?

    Because he’s slowing down, right?

    As for Kemp. I think he’d be playing LF in 2010 not CF.

    So that’s 2 questions of the 3 answered if the Yanks trade Cano for Kemp and sign Furcal.

    Those 3 questions remain unanswered by you. If you disagree with my strategy for answering 2/3 of them, fine, but go ahead and let’s hear you answer those 3 questions.

  219. jennifer December 5th, 2008 at 2:49 pm

    Al from BK

    Tis true, I heard it from my friends brothers sisters cousins friend who is friends with CC. He said it himself. :P

  220. CB December 5th, 2008 at 2:50 pm

    “Those deals are worse than the worst deals thought up onthis board.”

    I think that piece shows the kind of strange roster contortions that need to be made if they don’t sign CC.

    A lot of stats guys love Tex and are down on CC due to the long term risk of his contract.

    But then go through gymnastic exercises to make the team work without CC.

  221. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:51 pm

    Ed, if NYY signed Teixeira and Sabathia, there wouldn’t be enough Kleenix on the east coast to comfort Gammons and Phillips.

  222. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 2:51 pm

    BTW,
    You guys have the pecking order all wrong. The free agent pitchers trickle down effect starts with Pavano. Once that happens, the agents for the other guys start their negotiation like this. “If that sorry bleep can get this. Mine should get 10x as much”.

    Till then,its the Pavano watch.

  223. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 2:53 pm

    Miggs
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
    GB have there been any hair dresser sightings lately?

    ———————————————————–

    Haven’t seen him in a month or so. I’m guessing that he was a closet Devil Rays fanand is embarrassed by his blue mohawk.

  224. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 2:53 pm

    GB,

    then we need to clear out Wal-Mart’s storage of Kleenix just for them. lol

  225. Laura - The Hot Stove is Stone cold! December 5th, 2008 at 2:53 pm

    “Alex is ”….funding the completion of a Pediatric Outpatient Unit at Bronx-Lebanon Hospital Center in New York City; funding a Community DentCare Network at Columbia University College of Dental Medicine (to provide preventative dental services for kids); and completing a new learning center at the Boys and Girls Club in Miami that A-Rod himself frequented as a child””

    It’s good to see A-Rod spending his millions on something worthwhile.

  226. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 2:54 pm

    “Yanks sign CC and Tex”

    Baseball tonight would just be Olney and Kurkjian. Phillips/Gammons and Kruk would take the week off to deal with some “personal issues”:)

  227. Ariel December 5th, 2008 at 2:56 pm

    Mad Prince,

    Asuming no CC et al (and Cashman is constrained to go with what he has pitchingwise), “if” the numbers make sense, a package of both Manny and Tex could well be doable

    Contrary to popular thought it really is a “Buyer’s Market” for Manny and probably Tex. As to Manny, I don’t think anyone other than the Dodgers are really interested (and the Dodgers are reluctantly involved), and a 2-3 year deal is quite probable at “not unreasonable” dollars numbers. In the final analysis, the Yankees could be the only game in town for Manny, assuming he does not accept arbitration..

    As to Tex, only the Angels really come into play. If the “East Coast” preference is for real, Tex wants to play for a “winner” and he still harbors some level of animus to Boston, the eventual length may not be close to what Boras is asking. If approached rationally, the term could be structured to give Tex a “second bite” at the apple while still at a marketable age. This assumes, of course, that both Boras and Tex each have both feet on the ground as to what is really happening in the world today.

    Unfortunately, the Yankees may have made a grave error in coming out of the gate with the CC proposal, irrespective of the-then pending Brewer offer; Boras may believe he has a point of reference. Times are much different now than what they were three weeks ago, and probably are worsening.

  228. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 2:56 pm

    “Jeter bats over 300 when leading off.”

    Jete had better numbers at leadoff the year he led off than Damon. I see no problem with that.

    mel,
    Lackey will be resigned. Escobar had season ending surgury and is a question mark. Will the real Santana stand up? Anyone named Weaver shouldnt be trusted. And they have that good lefty Saunders. I dont think theyd mind if they had 2 aces on the staff to start the 09 season. Still lose to the Sox of coarse.

  229. YankeeRay December 5th, 2008 at 2:57 pm

    December 5th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
    Rishi
    December 5th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
    http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ml?eref=T1

    _

    GM for a day
    —————————————————————————————-
    This is along the lines of what I have been saying except that I wanted Manny in my line up as well. I think we need to stay on this course. No CC and No lowe.

  230. Espresso December 5th, 2008 at 2:58 pm

    It isn’t exactly earth shattering news that Pitching wins championships. It’s easier for a rotation with a couple of dominant starters to shut down a stacked lineup than for the line up to get to the pitcher. Just look at the most basic aspect of hitting in baseball, the best hitters make outs 60-70% of the time depending on which stat you look at. The best pitchers bring that average down farther.

  231. Mr. Exceptional December 5th, 2008 at 2:59 pm

    I don’t know. I didn’t think the GM for a day thing was so bad.

    I like the idea of the Yankees getting Tex and trading Matsui(if at all possible). Winn wouldn’t be bad in center.

    I do think they need lefties in Yankees stadium. And am always reminded that they could have had a rotation with Santana, Pettitte and Lilly (that’s the past though)…but all in all it wasn’t horrendous.

    It had logic…something this board lacks most of the time.

  232. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 3:00 pm

    GB7,
    Now that you mentioned hockey. Avery gets 6 games and couneseling. Hmmm…Counseling? I wonder how that would go. Does it start with pull the chair at dinner and open the pasanger door? Do not make offensive comments just write it in your diary?

  233. raymagnetic December 5th, 2008 at 3:01 pm

    “Especially considering the current WS Champs, the Phillies, won with really only one good starting pitcher.”

    Very excellent point you have here bdog. Of course it’ll be passed over and ignored because everyone here will say pitching wins championships when the truth is it’s a combination of pitching, timely hitting, and defense that wins championships.

  234. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 3:02 pm

    “As to Tex, only the Angels really come into play. If the “East Coast” preference is for real, Tex wants to play for a “winner” and he still harbors some level of animus to Boston,”

    According to Boras, you’re dead wrong on the Boston thing. First because it’s a different ownership and front office from the one he had issues with (read: Dan Duquette) and secondly, because Teixeira is not a 6 year old.

    Still wouldn’t rule out the Nats and O’s completely. Especially the O’s. But the Halos and Boston are definitely in it on him.

  235. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 3:03 pm

    “Jeter bats over 300 when leading off.”

    At 36, he won’t be agressive enough, or fast enough to be a high caliber leadoff hitter. He’ll probably have average speed by 2010.

    Furcal is much faster and more suited to the leadoff role. I’d much rather have Jeter batting second behind Furcal than vice versa.

    If the post-Damon era plan is to hit Jeter leadoff, it seems like patchwork to me.

  236. Laura - The Hot Stove is Stone cold! December 5th, 2008 at 3:05 pm

    “This is along the lines of what I have been saying except that I wanted Manny in my line up as well. I think we need to stay on this course. No CC and No lowe.”

    If you don’t want CC or Lowe, you would you get? AJ? Looks like he’s going to ATL. Sheets? Too risky. Oliver Perez? He only pitches well against us. Garland? His best days *may* be behind him. Peavy? He’s afraid of the AL. Who does that even leave?

  237. Brandon (TEIX IS NOT WORTH IT, GET CC !)..."Don't trade Robi !" December 5th, 2008 at 3:05 pm

    “Kershaw is great but Cano will bounce back and have a good year. No reason to quit on him and plus Colletti would be burnt at the stake for trading Kershaw.”

    But what’s wrong w/ that we kill two birds w/ one stone. We get Kershaw and the Dodgers get rid of a bad GM.

  238. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    by the way, Furcal doesn’t want to play 2B, he made it CLEAR that he doens’t want to.

  239. Laura - The Hot Stove is Stone cold! December 5th, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    “Still wouldn’t rule out the Nats and O’s completely. Especially the O’s. But the Halos and Boston are definitely in it on him.”

    Fredo, I’d be willing to bet that he’s not going to the Nats. They are one of the worst teams in baseball. The O’s stink too, but he’s from there so that may negate that fact.

  240. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    “Who does that even leave?”

    2 words. GOODNESS GRACIOUSE!!

  241. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    Someone on MLBTR hinting that the Stros are interested in moving Wigginton. He’s pricey for a bench guy, but you’d haveto like his versatility/ability to give people a day off here and there and fill in for injured players.

  242. YankeeRay December 5th, 2008 at 3:07 pm

    Heyman reporting multiple 4 year offers to Burnett and his agent says that his next team has to be within driving distance of his Baltimore home, hmmm. I think Atlanta would be out if thats the case. I think we get AJ.

    Lowe 5yrs 90 mm Please no Lowe.

    AJ, Pettite, Tex and Manny, trade Matsui.

  243. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 3:10 pm

    “The O’s stink too, but he’s from there so that may negate that fact.”

    O’s probably lead the AL East in close to MLB-ready high end prospects. With Markakis, Jones, and these upcoming youngsters, the O’s stand to improve a good deal in the coming seasons.

  244. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 3:10 pm

    ““Kershaw is great but Cano will bounce back and have a good year. No reason to quit on him and plus Colletti would be burnt at the stake for trading Kershaw.”

    But what’s wrong w/ that we kill two birds w/ one stone. We get Kershaw and the Dodgers get rid of a bad GM.”

    Fair enough. Kershaw is great but 20 yrs old I would feel bad throwing a kid that young into the rotation on the biggest stage in the world.

  245. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 3:10 pm

    Ed,

    Furcal said he does not want to play 2b because it gives him leverage in negotations with a team that might want to play him at 2b.

  246. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 3:11 pm

    S.o.S.
    December 5th, 2008 at 3:00 pm
    GB7,
    Now that you mentioned hockey. Avery gets 6 games and couneseling. Hmmm…Counseling? I wonder how that would go. Does it start with pull the chair at dinner and open the pasanger door? Do not make offensive comments just write it in your diary?

    ———————————————————–

    Somehow, I don’t think he’ll be getting a female counselor. Too much chance of them slitting his throat.

  247. Al from BK( Where in the world is Carsten Charles Sabathia?) December 5th, 2008 at 3:12 pm

    “AJ, Pettite, Tex and Manny, trade Matsui.”

    Yeah because we totally need Tex AND Manny.

  248. BBB December 5th, 2008 at 3:13 pm

    “raymagnetic
    December 5th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
    “Especially considering the current WS Champs, the Phillies, won with really only one good starting pitcher.”

    Very excellent point you have here bdog. Of course it’ll be passed over and ignored because everyone here will say pitching wins championships when the truth is it’s a combination of pitching, timely hitting, and defense that wins championships.”

    I agree with the general point being made here, that just saying “pitching wins championships” overlooks far too many other important factors, but just to play devils advocate for a sec….the Phillies didn’t really have that much timely hitting in the WS. Tampa had more, while the Phillies struggled with RISP well into game 4 before finally somewhat breaking through. The reason the Phillies won is because their hitters got on base SO MUCH that after a certain point, it was literally impossible for them not to score runs. A lot of those runs came on productive outs iirc. Of course you could argue that that’s timely situational hitting and no different than timely hitting with RISP…but the Phillies still didnt come up as big as the Rays did in hitting with RISP, and they won anyway.

    What I’m trying to say here is I think the Yanks can beat out Tampa in the division this year simply by beefing up their pitching a bit and using the same offensive model as the Phillies: that the other guys can get big hits with RISP every time they have a man on base, but if they don’t put enough men on base (ie not half as many as the Yanks do) it won’t matter.
    Boston is another story, cause theyre also an OBP team, but thats what the beefed up pitching is for. :)

  249. pat December 5th, 2008 at 3:13 pm

    “Heyman reporting multiple 4 year offers to Burnett and his agent says that his next team has to be within driving distance of his Baltimore home, hmmm. I think Atlanta would be out if thats the case. I think we get AJ.”

    Don’t count Atlanta out based on the drive thing. His last contract had limos from Toronto to Baltimore in it. Philly, NY, Pittsburgh and Boston would all be considered a drive I would think.

  250. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 3:13 pm

    Fredo,

    I like Wigginton as a bench player but the Stros are rating him as a starting third baseman and will require a level of talent that reflects his value as a starter. The Yankees would be paying for a starter and playing him as a part-timer.

  251. Laura - The Hot Stove is Stone cold! December 5th, 2008 at 3:13 pm

    “O’s probably lead the AL East in close to MLB-ready high end prospects. With Markakis, Jones, and these upcoming youngsters, the O’s stand to improve a good deal in the coming seasons.”

    That helps their case.

  252. YankeeRay December 5th, 2008 at 3:14 pm

    If you don’t want CC or Lowe, you would you get? AJ? Looks like he’s going to ATL. Sheets? Too risky. Oliver Perez? He only pitches well against us. Garland? His best days may be behind him. Peavy? He’s afraid of the AL. Who does that even leave?

    -
    AJ, Pettite, Wang, Joba , Hughes – Youth except for Pettite. Lowe is 36. CC too big, both in size and in contract and I don’t think he WANTS to be a Yankee where I do think AJ and Tex may. JMO.

  253. BBB December 5th, 2008 at 3:15 pm

    I would gladly assume Wigginton’s kinda pricey contract in a trade. to have a guy like that on the bench, it’s well worth it imo. Yanks haven’t had a bench player like that in years, and having one would be a big step in the direction of re-becoming the kind of team the dynasty teams were.

  254. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 3:15 pm

    Bret The Hitman,

    wrestling kills your brain cells, stop watching it.

  255. Laura - The Hot Stove is Stone cold! December 5th, 2008 at 3:15 pm

    “Don’t count Atlanta out based on the drive thing. His last contract had limos from Toronto to Baltimore in it. Philly, NY, Pittsburgh and Boston would all be considered a drive I would think.”

    Geez, how long is the drive from TOR to BAL?

  256. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 3:16 pm

    “Somehow, I don’t think he’ll be getting a female counselor. Too much chance of them slitting his throat.”

    GB7,
    LOL.If so. He better make sure the counseling isnt done in a hockey rink.

  257. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 3:16 pm

    BBB,

    The Yankees would be trading talent that reflects Wigginton’s value as a starter. They would be trading too much talent away for a bench player.

  258. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 3:18 pm

    Ed,

    Look at yourself and your own ideas. If you can’t articulate them, then you lose credibility when you attempt to critique others.

  259. vinny-b *Behold the sword of Urlacher* December 5th, 2008 at 3:18 pm

    “Derek Lowe is looking for $90MM over five years” – per Heyman

    you have to be kidding me.

  260. S.o.S. December 5th, 2008 at 3:18 pm

    I say Arod should come out and say that he will give AJ’s wife his private jet to come and go to the stadium. Who needs cars? So im here to say if he doesnt sign with us,its Arods fault.

  261. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 3:21 pm

    There is one issue to having Wigginton as the utility player….he can’t play shortstop. He’s not great, but Ransom can play a servicable shortstop for a short period.

  262. raymagnetic December 5th, 2008 at 3:21 pm

    “At 36, he won’t be agressive enough, or fast enough to be a high caliber leadoff hitter. He’ll probably have average speed by 2010.”

    Maybe he will, maybe he won’t have average speed. Speed is not the end all be all anyway when it comes to being a leadoff hitter.

    As long as Jeter can get on base in 2010 he’ll be fast enough to score on doubles from first or singles from second because he is an excellent baserunner.

  263. BBB December 5th, 2008 at 3:21 pm

    oh and in case no one has posted it yet, the latest from MLBTR:

    “Derek Lowe is looking for $90MM over five years. Brian Cashman apparently expressed “heavy interest” to Scott Boras yesterday.”

    UGH….certainly not even Lowe’s staunchest defender from one of the previous threads can say they’re overjoyed about the Yankees’ “heavy interest” in a 5 year, nearly $100MM deal to a THIRTY-SIX YEAR OLD PITCHER who only managed a sub-4 ERA 1 of 3 years as a starter in the AL.

    Just. Say. No. Cash!!!!!

  264. Ed - patience isn't a virtue to some people December 5th, 2008 at 3:22 pm

    Look Furcal made it clear and told the Spanish newspaper that he doesn’t want to play 2B. I can’t find the link now but some people on this board knows it.

    btw, what does looking at myself do with it?

  265. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 3:25 pm

    Ed,

    Suppose a team wants to sign Furcal to play 2b? Should he just agree to it or say that he refuses to move from shortstop?

    Which approach gives him more leverage and ultimately more money?

  266. BBB December 5th, 2008 at 3:25 pm

    “The Yankees would be trading talent that reflects Wigginton’s value as a starter. They would be trading too much talent away for a bench player.”

    Bret: Yeah, but Houston GM Ed Wade is literally dumb as rocks. Maybe he won’t go for it but the Yanks should at least try to see if they can fleece him with a couple overhyped guys that won’t end up doing much. I mean, it’s certainly been done to him before.

    also, never underestimate the idiocy of opposing GM’s. When the offseason started, would you really have thought we could get Swisher for Can’t Find A Bettermit? Even bearing in mind Swisher’s awful 08, thats highway robbery. Ed Wade likes getting robbed too! :D

  267. YankeeRay December 5th, 2008 at 3:25 pm

    “Don’t count Atlanta out based on the drive thing. His last contract had limos from Toronto to Baltimore in it. Philly, NY, Pittsburgh and Boston would all be considered a drive I would think.”

    Geez, how long is the drive from TOR to BAL?

    -
    Exactly, if thats a factor his family probably said “that ride from toronto to Baltimore was too much”
    So if that is a factor I would say Atlanta will be out.

    Good call on the Arod plane offer. The players really seem to want AJ. I still think the rest of the pitching staff would resent CC’s salary. The only ones who wouldn’t are the ones who contacted him, Jeter and Arod.

  268. GreenBeret7 December 5th, 2008 at 3:26 pm

    BBB
    December 5th, 2008 at 3:21 pm
    oh and in case no one has posted it yet, the latest from MLBTR:

    “Derek Lowe is looking for $90MM over five years. Brian Cashman apparently expressed “heavy interest” to Scott Boras yesterday.”

    UGH….certainly not even Lowe’s staunchest defender from one of the previous threads can say they’re overjoyed about the Yankees’ “heavy interest” in a 5 year, nearly $100MM deal to a THIRTY-SIX YEAR OLD PITCHER who only managed a sub-4 ERA 1 of 3 years as a starter in the AL.

    Just. Say. No. Cash!!!!!

    ———————————————————-

    I wouldn’t want Lowe on a 90 year, 5 million dollar total.

  269. Fredo Corleone December 5th, 2008 at 3:27 pm

    “Derek Lowe is looking for $90MM over five years” – per Heyman”

    Yeah, but it’s the same agent who suggested a Posada-like contract for Varitek. Reality will strike and it won’t be 5 years or $18M per. He can probably get 4/$60M under the “Hey if someone gave Carlos Silva 4/$48M then I’m worth X” rule.

  270. BBB December 5th, 2008 at 3:29 pm

    “Bret: Yeah, but Houston GM Ed Wade is literally dumb as rocks. Maybe he won’t go for it but the Yanks should at least try to see if they can fleece him with a couple overhyped guys that won’t end up doing much. I mean, it’s certainly been done to him before”

    also just to add to this previous post a bit – the Yanks have a surplus of pitching talent and Houston has a very weak farm system. So, prospect wise, our trash could easily be their treasure. I think thats what happened to some extent in both the Nady and Swisher trades and I’d love to see Cash continuing to deal from that strength wherever it’s possible/beneficial.

  271. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 3:31 pm

    Actually, Cashman meeting with Boras about ‘Lowe’ and Boras coming out of it demanding 90 million for 5 years for Lowe is good business for Boras and also an assist to Brian Cashman and the Yankees if they’re more interested in Burnett than Lowe.

    Once Burnett and his agent catch word of 90 million/5 years for Lowe, their asking price goes up and prices out the Atlanta Braves. At the very least, Burnett would hesitate to accept the offer from the Braves, which buys Cashman some time.

  272. pat December 5th, 2008 at 3:32 pm

    “Geez, how long is the drive from TOR to BAL?”

    I’m guessing about 9 hours depending on border crossing.

    I think the plane could be arranged but the issue seems to be someone in the AJ household must not be a fan of flying because planes fly from Baltimore to Toronto too.

  273. Bret the Hitman December 5th, 2008 at 3:34 pm

    BBB,

    I like both the Swisher and Nady trades for us but I also feel that we gave up good players in return in both deals. I like Tabata and I actually think Betemit’s going to prove alot of people wrong if Ozzie can find him more regular playing time somehow. Also, that Nunez guy sounded pretty decent.

    I’d like to have Wigginton but I just feel other GM’s would offer more than us to get him because some of them really need a starting third baseman or a decent bat. They’d be willing to not fleece Ed Wade to get it.

  274. jennifer December 5th, 2008 at 3:34 pm

    Just one question is Derek Lowe and Scott Borass on drugs?

  275. Taylor December 5th, 2008 at 3:42 pm

    Pitching AND DEFENSE matter. It’s amazing how many people forget the importance of defense (and I’m not saying Mr. Abraham is). Either way, Tex’s defense at 1B would really help the pitching staff, although I’m not necessarily a proponent of signing Tex given the contract. Also, Jeter’s defense at SS kills our pitching.

  276. sd December 5th, 2008 at 5:36 pm

    I don’t deny the overall premise but I do disagree that it should drive the way teams approach the off-season.

    As they said it is healthy and deep pitching that makes the difference however pitchers in general are less likely to remain healthy than hitters. Spending money on free agent pitching doesn’t change that fact so spending money on starting pitchers is a less effective use of money than spending money on hitters. Given that you should focus on drafting and developing a lot of young starting pitchers and do most of your free agent spending on offense.

  277. RustyJohn December 5th, 2008 at 5:58 pm

    My theory (and since it is not backed up by any evidence, it differs very little from most of the other theories posted in the comments section) is that what determines success in a rotation is pitching durability/depth, namely the quality of your 4th and 5th starters and ability to replace those who are injured during the season. During the course of a season most teams will have their 4th and 5th starter position filled with AAA or AAAA pitchers for a large chunk of the season. Since the drop off between a #1 or #3 starter is not that great (unless you have a true ace), you’re only talking about a 1/2 run to a run’s difference in ERA from #1 to #3. However, if you have pitching depth and have what would be a league average #3 starter in the 4th or 5th whole, your starters would be going up against guys that have era’s on average a run to two runs higher.

    Considering that your average #4 and #5 starter are going to be making 31 or 32 starts a season, that would be a difference of at least 10-15 wins a season (a total guess on my part).

    The exception I suppose would be teams like the 2001 Diamondbacks, where you just have 2 overwhelming aces in the rotation at 1 and 2, and an average #3 with mediocre talent in the 4th and 5th spots, but that is an extreme rarity.

    The pitching depth also maximizes bullpen use, so I would hope that they would get Sabathia and Lowe based on the durability issues, perhaps resign Andy- a rotation of Sabathia, Wang, Lowe, Andy, Joba with Hughes and IPK to fill in would be sick.

  278. Kevin December 5th, 2008 at 6:17 pm

    Sorry, but like I’ve said in the past it doesn’t matter if the Yankees could trot out Whitey Ford in his prime, you can’t win consistently and get in the playoffs scoring one and two runs a game. We ALL know that starting pitching is probably the most important aspect of winning in baseball. But the offense at least has to be SERVICEABLE. The Yankees’ in 2008 was not even serviceable, unbelievable as that is considering their production in prior years. We’ve replaced Giambi AND Abreu (arguably our most clutch and consistent hitter last season) with Nick Swisher. And that’s supposed to fix everything? Sure people will have bounceback years but come on. I’m all for signing CC and Lowe, but if we miss out on even one of those guys they HAVE to upgrade the lineup in some way.

  279. RustyJohn December 5th, 2008 at 6:51 pm

    Yankees scored an average of about 4.9 runs per game last year, more than AL champ Tampa and only .06 runs per game less than World Champion Phillies. That, of course, was without Matsui or Posada for most of the year, a slumping Cano, and the hole in CF that was Melky.

    So I can see how 4.9 runs a game equals 1 or 2 runs a game. (tongue in cheek)

    Now, yes, there did seem to be a lot of games where they wouldn’t hit with RISP and there seemed to be an odd number of 1 or 2 run games or lopsided games- however, assuming you have Matsui as DH full time and healthy, a Cano bounceback and Posada having an average season, it will more than be adequate.

    Assuming of course they find someone to replace Abreu’s bat…

  280. Lloyd Braun December 6th, 2008 at 8:43 am

    As a Red Sox fan, I HOPE the yanks:

    1- sign Burnett- he will implode in NY or Boston. He had trouble with the fans in TO. Great stuff, but brittle with a 10 cent head.

    2- trade Cano- the man has a ton of talent. Are there off-field issues? Does he party too much?

    3- miss out on CC- the man is a horse. Yes, he has stumbled in the last 2 playoffs. He had to pitch his butt off just to get his teams there. People tend to forget that. I see CC playing in Cali., for the Angels or SF.

    4- fail to focus on their D- your team needs an upgrade in CF, LF, SS and 1B when it comes to D. Yes, you have Jeter. But, he is a 1B waiting to happen.

    5- panic when Teixeira signs in Boston. By that i mean you folks freak out and sign Manny. He will get killed in LF in NY. Also, the media and the fans will HATE his aloof personality. He is a tremendous hitter, but we saw last year how he can be 2 different players when not motivated.

    Best of luck next year! Yanks/Sox games are always fun to watch.

  281. Jones December 6th, 2008 at 12:06 pm

    TELL US SOMETHING WE DON’T KNOW. CASHMAN SHOULD HAVE BEEN FOCUSING ON STARTING PITCHING FOR THE LAST 9 YEARS! IT’S TAKEN HIM THIS LONG TO FIGURE THIS OUT?!

  282. george December 6th, 2008 at 12:44 pm

    this is such an oversimplification: as one example, if offense is so irrelevant, then the Big Red Machine would not have even made the playoffs in 1975-1976!

    in 1976, for example, the Dodgers gave up 3.35 runs-per-game, the Reds 3.91 – more than 1/2 a run a game, a big deal.

    the Reds won the West because they wildly outscored the Dodgers – 5.29 runs-per-game to 3.75 for LA.

    Similar scenario in 1975.

    the Reds had good pitching – though their strength was mostly in a superlative bullpen, the starters were just decent.

    The point being that it’s silly to make it so black-and-white in terms of pitching vs. hitting. if the Yanks can’t get the pitchers they want, if anything it makes it more important to improve the offense – then the amount of pitching they’d need to get/develop in order to win goes
    proportionally down.

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