Working on a budget
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Dec 10, 2008 
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lol
“We’re not the Red Sox,”
Thank God!
Zing!
“I wonder which restaurant in the NYC-metro area CC will visit first? Hopefully he brings Edwar with him, that boy could use some more meat on his bones”
Sylvia’s ?
Best line of the week so far
Cashman’s lucky I wasn’t on that plane and sitting within 5 rows of him. I would’ve talked to him non-stop. He would probably start making fake snoring noises just to get rid of me.
“I wonder which restaurant in the NYC-metro area CC will visit first?”
Mariano’s NY Grill of course.
lol something tells me Sabathia won’t be going to Harlem for his first meal.
“Cashman’s lucky I wasn’t on that plane and sitting within 5 rows of him. I would’ve talked to him non-stop. He would probably start making fake snoring noises just to get rid of me”
lol.
tho, i don’t expect he was sitting in coach.
LOL THATS WAS PREETY FUNNY C-MONEY
The Blog – for stuff you won’t read anywhere else! (lol)
Did anybody catch the beginning to Tireco(SP) and Van Pelt on ESPN?
While they were doing the lead (lede?) in they were playing the imperial march from Star Wars.
“lol something tells me Sabathia won’t be going to Harlem for his first meal.”
Why not ?
I didn’t notice the new threads either:
Another way to look at the opt-out: if CC exercises the clause, that most likely means that:
a) he performed at such a high level in his three years in pinstripes that he could realistically get more money on the open market as a 31 year old pitcher. That means we would have gotten three pretty good years out of CC in is prime, no?
b) he and his family just don’t like living in NY and his heart isn’t in it and he’s ready to take less or the same to go west. If that’s the case, we wish him well and say goodbye, don’t we?
c) CC totally bombs in NY and has too much pride to be a Yankee Zito and wants a fresh start elsewhere. Unlikely, I know.
I’m spinning here; I’m still not crazy about the opt-out but I’m crazy about CC in pinstripes.
Nick – If he works out great, then, great, and he looks for more money, likely from the Yankees, who will not be outbid. If it doesn’t work out, then it’s time to part ways. I know it’s philosophical, but that’s the way to look at it. He negotiated the deal he wanted. Any of us would have done the same.
Does fielding count? Below are some 2007 numbers.
FIP = Fielding Independent ERA
Johan Santana — FIP 3.71, ERA 3.14
ChienMing Wang – FIP 3.76, ERA 3.82
Andy Pettitte — FIP 3.70, ERA 3.93
So pitching in a defense neutral environment, Andy and Wang were basically the same pitcher as Santana (in 2007)
Angry Puppy is hammering the Yanks of course. He hasn’t been doing that as much after he moved to Sirius. For a few hours last night he thought his Giants had a shot at CC and now he’s ticked.
“I’m spinning here; I’m still not crazy about the opt-out but I’m crazy about CC in pinstripes.”
Agree with the assessment Nick. The opt out sucks and I don’t believe a guy with two offers that differ by $60M leaves the $60M on the table if the Yanks didn’t allow the opt out. I guess desperation is what is it is. Genske controlled this entire process right up to dictating the terms under which it could get done. Juxtapose that agaisnt a less desperate Cashman giving Johnny Damon mere hours to accept “their deal” or it would be pulled off the table.
haha
Thanks Bad Scooter glad to see we’re still making his life a living hell
“Angry Puppy is hammering the Yanks of course.”
That’s one thing I will not miss about Mike & the Mad Dog.
lol … does anyone miss Russo? as much as Mike is an idiot, i think the show probably got better. then again, i don’t listen too often. (i read a lot of comments here though)
I don’t know why everyone is so upset about the opt-out. If he exercises it, it will because he pitched well for the Yankees. When it comes up, he’ll be coming off his prime years and signing a new contract for his lesser years. The Yankees would be lucky if he took the opt-out. Especially given their young pitching that will hit the majors by 2011. The only downside I see to this deal is the length. If he doesn’t take the opt out then it will be because he pitched poorly. No amount of booing by Yankees fans is going to get him to leave 100 million on the table when he can’t get a deal like that back from another team. The opt out isn’t the issue here.
Cashman is lucky that Congress didn’t demand that he drive a Hybrid to the meeting.
Most of the reporting today (especially from Olney) is stating that the Brewers were ready to go to 120 million.
There would have been a 20, not 60 million dollar difference in the deal. Close enough to perhaps make him leave money on the table and go elsewhere.
Couple that with the fact that if the Angels lose Tex, they would have jumped into the fray for CC.
If you are the Yankees, do you raise the offer and not look to negotiate the opt out (which was also part of the Brewers offer) out of the deal in order to close it now, or do you keep dragging it out and hope for the best?
The Yankees made the call to close it out now.
Not doing so, runs the risk they come up empty in the entire process if Tex ends up in Boston, CC ends up in Anaheim or Milwaukee, and they are forced to overpay (without opt outs) for other guys.
At some point in the process, you have to make a call. The Yankees decided to do what needed to be done to close it out now, rather than keeping the guy on the open market much longer.
“I don’t know why everyone is so upset about the opt-out. ”
Everyone is not upset. I was pushing the Opt Out clause several days ago. I think it’s a good move considering that CC had issues coming to NY in the first place. Why make him feel trapped if he and his family end up not being NY material?
I like the opt-out
I love Ca$h.
who will have the better year in 2009:
CC or Santana ?
Olney on the Kay Show. Feels the Yankees will get Lowe and Sheets.
Thinks they will go 2 years for Sheets. A steal, IMO.
Believes Andy better take the Yankee offer of 10 million now or he will get left out.
Olney has done some great reporting during the meetings.
Nick is right. If CC opts out, it probably means he was a dominant pitcher for the Yankees and can make more money with a new deal (which the Yankees would gladly give if he pitches well enough to earn it).
Olney is the best.
CC v.s. Beckett at new YS, I hope this happens at some point.
The Nats willing to offer ten years at more than $20MM per and the Orioles willing to do nine years also at at least $20MM per year.
-LA Times
How is it possible that teams are willing to commit to a player for 10 years (albeit speculated) when he hasn’t even played there yet?
wow Olney thinks that Abreu’s market is 10 million a year max that is how bad the corner outfield market is. That shows that the idea that Bobby probably would have taken arbitration is most likely correct.
“At some point in the process, you have to make a call. The Yankees decided to do what needed to be done to close it out now, rather than keeping the guy on the open market much longer.”
Agree with that, SJ. However, let’s not pretend that Cashman would have done the deal with opt out if he didn’t have to. Spare me this ludicrous payroll flexibility argument. You don’t have flexibility when someone else controls a significant piece of your payroll. Sabathia has that control.
“Thinks they will go 2 years for Sheets. A steal, IMO.”
Isn’t it? The poor economy is really helping out the Yankees. Most teams can’t afford the risk of signing Sheets and having him get hurt. It would cripple their team.
I don’t think a single team thinks 2yrs/30M isnt a steal. Most teams just cant afford the risk.
SJ – Absolutely. At some point, you have to make a decision. The Yankees decided to take the best pitcher in baseball. Hard to seriously debate that one.
Laura – From all that I’ve read, CC seems like a genuine person. If he honestly had any residual doubts, then something like this helps erase them and makes him feel better about his decision. Especially after he was psyched up for all those West Coast offers that never came.
In certain ways this reminds me of The Catfish signing on Christmas Eve in 75…..The anxeity, the need for a #1 starter, the dominanece, the excitment…..Health is now the concern as with all pitchers…..
“The Nats willing to offer ten years at more than $20MM per and the Orioles willing to do nine years also at at least $20MM per year.”
I’m skeptical of these reports from anonymous sources. Has anybody figured out what % of “reports” have been accurate at the winter meetings? is it over 5%?
I think the “Yankees have no control” argument is flawed when looking at the long-term because it presumes that the Yankees front office is and will be incapable of looking at two different scenarios when making their plans. They will announce this deal as a 7-year contract, and they will look at it that way for the foreseeable future. Why is it impossible for them to have a contingency plan in place come 2012 if CC decides to opt out? Once that day comes, what, are they going to be completely incapable of making the right decision? And honestly, if the first 3 years have badly enough for him to have no incentive to opt out (i.e. injury, performance), how upset will the Yankees be? They will acknowledge that this is the risk they took when they signed a contract with him for 7 years, and they will accept his ignoring the opt-out clause and hope to finally get the return on their investment that they wanted. I think this is sour grapes for the sake of sour grapes. I also think it presumes that the team will be so bloated by big contracts or dropped revenues or a smaller budget or whatever that they’ll be unable to either pay CC or some other more money, which is silly. 3 years is an eternity in free agency and what not.
i don’t get why that’s funny.
Why can’t I get excited about Derek Lowe…..I’ve watched him pitch with the Dodgers for the past few years…He prospers inthe NL West and those large ballparks…..I was hopimh that AJ would be a fit…Or at the very least Sheets…..
Speaking of Red Sox: For once, I am actually rooting for them to be on nice end of some poetic justice. I reckon that Manny may end up getting less money in 2009 than he would have had he not opted out…
I’m not 100% sold on Sheets, even for 2 years. The guy is injured. I just don’t want another Pavano situation. Actually, it’s unfair of me to compare Sheets to Pavano. Sheets is really injured. I think that some of Pavano’s “injuries” were in his head.
I don’t know what AccuScore is, but this was worth noting vis a vis CC – and not just because it supports my recommendation of Lowe over Sheets and Burnett.
“However, Sabathia doesn’t provide a major upgrade for the Yankees, who lost two of their best starting pitchers with Mike Mussina retiring and Andy Pettitte a free agent. That leaves Joba Chamberlain and Chien-Ming Wang as the best starting options before the Sabathia signing.
“AccuScore simulated the Yankees’ 2009 season with Mussina, Pettitte, and Alfredo Aceves, and compared that group to Sabathia, Aceves, and Phil Hughes.
“The Yankees with a rotation including Sabathia but without Mussina and Pettitte would post a 90-72 record.
“The Yankees with a rotation including Mussina and Pettitte but without Sabathia would post an 87-75 record.
“The Yankees with a rotation without Mussina, Pettitte and Sabathia would post an 81-81 record.
“So, the AccuScore simulations establish that Yankees would improve by only three victories with Sabathia and Hughes replacing Mussina and Pettitte. Going into the 2009 season, the Yankees were looking at an 81-81 record with a rotation that didn’t include Mussina, Pettitte or Sabathia. The addition of Sabathia upgrades the Yankees by nine wins.
“Current rumors have the Yankees going heavily after Derek Lowe, which would provide another big impact. In AccuScore simulations with Sabathia and Lowe in the rotation, the Yankees improve their record to 97-65, with Lowe providing an additional seven-win upgrade.”
Just back from a full day of saving innocent men (and women) from jail. OK, allegedly innocent men and women….
The “arms” race is going well I see. Very well indeed.
Does signing CC mean the Yankees are the most improved team in the AL East? Does that get them back into the ALDS and beyond?
I still maintain adding *2* of (Lowe, Burnett, Sheets) is overkill.
sign Sheets and Petitte, and call it an off-season.
does anybody think hughes and or kennedy get traded for a cf or do they use kennedy with other prospects & keep hughes .
Chiming in late on the Pettitte discussion, but other than W-L record and ERA, Andy’s statistics were extremely similar in 2007 and 2008, his WHIP, BA, OBP, and SLG against were virtually identical. His strikeout to walk ratio improved and so did his ground ball to flyball ratio. The biggest difference was that they turned 29 double plays behind him in 2007 and only 15 last year. His DIPS ERA was 3.69, which suggests that he was very unlucky last year.
He’s not worth $16 million, but I don’t think he’s on the decline, either.
“I reckon that Manny may end up getting less money in 2009 than he would have had he not opted out…”
His will be another case of Boras misleading his client about his worth on the market. This is what he did to A-Rod last year. He convinced him that there were multiple teams willing to pay him big bucks when in fact, there was only one.
Fredo,
No question that if they had their druthers, they would probably not have put an opt out clause in the deal.
That said, it does give the Yankees some flexibility if he decides to opt out.
Its better than being forced to get rid of a guy (Randy Johnson) who hated being in NY.
If nothing else, it gives Sabathia piece of mind.
Its not the evil thing some folks are trying portray.
If all they get is 3/69 for Sabathia, and he walks, that’s a helluva lot better than being stuck with a guy who doesn’t want to be in NY.
I think its much ado about nothing. You do what you need to do to close the deal.
We sure aren’t the Red Sox.
He have some non-white people on our team.
If CC opts out after 3 years and does well for us and enjoys NY… then we’ll just re-sign him to an absurd deal.
So the only way he won’t be with us past 2011 is if he hated NY during the 3 years here OR if we’ve somehow developed a plethora of frontline pitching in the next 3 years and don’t need CC.
Either way, we’re in a good position with CC.
does anybody think hughes and or kennedy get traded for a cf or do they use kennedy with other prospects & keep hughes .
______________
No
Let me guess…you want Kemp?
Oh Goodie-Steve Phillips time on the Michael Kay show
no way we go with gardner/melky in cf.
i see a very nice trade coming up for a real good cf after the pitching is taken care of.
“He prospers inthe NL West and those large ballparks”
Pat,
65% of his contact allowed are ground balls. His ground ball to fly ball rate is a usually arond 3:1. How much does the large ball park possibly help him?
I’m not particularly excited about him either. But he’s useful. I wouldn’t go 5 years at all. Even 4 is painful. I too would rather have sheets, particularly sheets on a two year deal.
I know you love Tex – but at the years/ dollars we are now hearing he just becomes untenable. They can’t have another player on the roster signed to a 10 year deal worth more than $200M. They just can’t.
Kevin Brown– How is it possible that Lowe gives you an additional 7 wins and CC gives you only an extra 3? I dont understand how that works out?
Kevin,
I don’t think that’s a great statistic. All that matters is how much better the Yankees are with CC than without. I don’t know why Hughes is in that equation either. Mussina was fantastic last season and CC does fill that void. Without CC or Mussina the Yanks are in tough shape.
Further, even 3 wins (if you want to give credence to that stat) is a big deal. 3 wins generally is the difference between making the playoffs, winning the division, or staying home.
“does anybody think hughes and or kennedy get traded for a cf”
No
no way we go with gardner/melky in cf.
i see a very nice trade coming up for a real good cf after the pitching is taken care of.
____________
Real good= mike cameron…I hope not
“no way we go with gardner/melky in cf.”
Well, they are saying that now the Yankees will go hard for Cameron since he is a good friend of CC’s. Sort of like how we signed Minky because of his friendship with A-Rod.
WOW. A report says we are talking to Andy Pettitte.
This isnt brain surgery. Sign him and you only need one of Burnett, Lowe, Sheets.
Murph,
Not yet. They still have work to do. They need two more starting pitchers.
If they have 3-4 guys who are 190-210 inning guys, and Joba as the best 5th starter in the game, with their bullpen, and that’s a formidable staff.
If that happens, and they go into January with a need for a bat, there will be a glut of hitters on the market who could be had for the right price.
We need to get Sheets and resign Andy. Then Cash can look for a cheap bat via trade or FA.
“His will be another case of Boras misleading his client about his worth on the market. This is what he did to A-Rod last year.”
He was wrong on Arod, but it didn’t hurt him.
Tougher call on Ramirez because the economy as we know it today is not the economy as we knew in mid-late July. In July, for example, offering Abreu arbitration was a stone cold lock for the Yankees. Look how that played out only four months later.
YANKS IN 2010 :
i’ve been good with my cano for kemp crazy idea but now that you mentioned it i would absolutely love for cash to trade cano for kemp & get a 2nd baseman.
this makes us much better because there is no chance he goes with gardner/melky.
according to rumors cano alone will not get kemp.
we should of done it when we had the chance.
Kevin-
Interesting. What are the projections for Sheets or Burnett?
No trading Cano.
Period.
It begins and ends on the mound. The Yankees need to get as many established major league ready arms as possible. Signing CC was a great start but they need to fill out the rotation. It would be nice if they had a few guys in the minors they could depend on to pitch 200+ innings, but they need to find that talent in the free agent market. It would be nice to see Hughes as a spot starter and allow IPK to develop a few more reliable pitches w/o the season hanging on every start.
The more the better, IMO..
Cano isn’t getting traded. Favorable contract, young player, and they have spent all winter working with him.
That’s not something you do to a guy you are going to deal.
Cano for Kemp is a dead deal and has been dead since July.
“establish that Yankees would improve by only three victories with Sabathia”
Ask the Brewers how much he was worth.
Al-
You’re OK and back. Now the glass is half full for you I hope, with the signing of CC !!!
Of Burnett, Lowe, Sheets or Pettitte who will be the first two to accept the offers, to round out our starting rotation?
i am fine with cano but we need a cf.
how we get it i don’t care as long as we keep hughes.
i would trade kennedy & others but probably not hughes,brackman,montero,betances,melancon.
CC improves the record by 3?
Then the other two guys you fill in will also increase and suddenly we are in the mid 90s to 100.
Finally someone on Mike F show that knows his stuff this professor was on Suzyn Waldman’s show last night and he knows his stuff about economics and sports and how the current economic issues effect sports. He advises almost all of the professional leagues.
It was a pleasure to take the mute button off the tv
i’ve been good with my cano for kemp crazy idea but now that you mentioned it i would absolutely love for cash to trade cano for kemp & get a 2nd baseman.
__________
You knew where I was going…cuz I knew where you were going
Why do you have an obsession with CF….when we have a top-rated prospect plus two other guys under 26 on the roster
Cano alone won’t get Kemp? That’s ridiculous. Cano is already a better hitter, plays a premium position, and has just as much upside as Kemp. Stupid trade.
The grass is always greener for Yankee fans. Just relax with the Kemp talk.
Expect Gammons to soon be gushing with enthusiasm about the high end Boston prospects in Low A. Can’t miss he’ll say.
Also after next season, i believe some other OFs are FAs.
Upton, Crawford? They can be Yankees too, and the proze at first base. Albert Pujols. Save the money going to Tex and bring Albert in.
“He’s not worth $16 million, but I don’t think he’s on the decline, either.”
Obviosuly the Yankees think he is on the decline or they wouldn’t be asking him to take a paycut.
“Kevin Brown—How is it possible that Lowe gives you an additional 7 wins and CC gives you only an extra 3? I dont understand how that works out?”
Maybe the theory is Sabathia replaces Mike Mussina’s numbers and Lowe is replacing Rasner & Ponson’s.
what are you doing watching mike’s show on mute?
I’m not sure who said that CC would win the yankees an additional 3 games – but that’s just not correct.
CC projects to win the yankees an additional 5-6 games. That makes him one of the most valuable players in the game. The number of 5-6 win players is minuscule.
3 wins is completely off base unless you are assuming he’ll get injured.
Ok francesa just confirmed my thoughts that he listened to Waldman’s show last night as he got the same guest as she did and just now with Girardi he quoted exactly what he said last night about as a player he was always in slow mode during this time and as a manager he is in quick mode.
Good to know he needs to listen to other places to get his ideas.
Rob NY, Boston Dave, Yankee Trader:
Like I said, I have no idea what AccuScore is so I wish I knew what their methodology was (although I don’t think they were saying that CC is worth only three wins; I think it was CC and Hughes vs. Pettitte and Mussina). Why Lowe on his own adds another seven is a good question.
Here’s the link, although I printed most of it:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/ne.....;type=lgns
Anyone out there ever heard of AccuScore?
Sounds like the Yankees are targeting Lowe next??
Besides a sinker, what pitches does he have?
His WHIP was 1.13 and in 34 starts he pitched 211 innings, with 92.3 pitches/game. Does that mean he’s more efficient, or only a 6 inning pitcher?
Crawford has a club option for 2010. They may trade him if they don’t sign him to an extension though.
I don’t think there are very many quality CF hitting the market in 2010. But hopefully AJax will be an option. Matt Holliday will be out there (RF?) as well.
“no way we go with gardner/melky in cf.
i see a very nice trade coming up for a real good cf after the pitching is taken care of.”
__
If the Yanks sign two of Lowe, Sheets and Pettitte I can’t see them getting a center fielder as well.
Two of those pitchers puts their payroll near $200MM.
Only if they could trade Nady, Damon or Matsui could it work, and trading trading any of those guys for a CF would create roster issues and reduce any benefit we’d get from a better center fielder as well.
At the risk of being very repetitious, I think they’d still have room for a guy like Ankiel if they stocked up on FA pitchers.
The knock on Ankiel is he’s very bad defensively in CF, and he only has one year left and, and as a Boras client, the feeling is he won’t stick around after the year is up.
However, he’s only about $1MM, so we can afford him even if we signed Sheets and Lowe, and we don’t have to play him every day in CF. We could mix him in with Damon in CF, even Nady occasionally in CF, and Ankiel could play CF when a strikeout guy like CC pitches ir a grounball guy like Wang or Lowe pitches. When you needed defense in the late innings you could bring in Gardner off the bench.
Ankiel would give us roster flexibility at a very low cost.
“Save the money going to Tex and bring Albert in.”
Somehow, I don’t think the Cards are going to let Albert go so easily.
Accuweather?
Tomorrow: Showers early, becoming a steady rain later in the day. Temps nearly steady in the mid to upper 30s. Winds NNE at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 90%. Rainfall near a half an inch.
“The addition of Sabathia upgrades the Yankees by nine wins.”
It says right in Kevin’s quote that Sabathia improves us by 9 wins. That 3 wins improvement is Sabathia/Hughes vs Mussina/Pettie.
Kevin,
I know. I just don’t think it makes sense to throw in multiple variables when trying to determine the value of a single player. It’s simply, how much better are the Yankees with CC than without?
I typically defer to CB when it comes to all these wacky stats. Maybe he knows.
How many wins does a full season of Wang add minus Rasner?
And FA Pitcher Signing #2 substituting for Sir Sidney?
And Pettitte (I still think and hope) as the #4 starter?
And Joba going as your #5 instead of being rushed to replace Hughes/Kennedy but then, in practice, actually replacing Wang?
Don’t forget one thing. After 2011 season, Wang, Cain and Verlander will be a free agent. On top of that, we have a lot of good pitching prospects in our farm system who may be ready by that time. If CC ready doesn’t like here and want to leave, it’s fine for us. We will have options. Not to mention, I don’t think CC will perform badly at first three years of deal.
I found this online interesting article about CC and his family life.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/.....75RG43.DTL
Article was written last year before his trade to the Brewers.
Francessa pushing sheets with Girardi, would like to see if he slams Burnett like he has been doing on the show.
CB, is that 5-6 games over a replacement level starting pitcher or a league average starting pitcher?
“Ankiel would give us roster flexibility at a very low cost.”
The Cardinals want JJ Putz for Ankiel. I don’t call that low cost. If they are going to give up quality talent for a CF, I pray it’s not for an average CF.
I remember when the Yanks were interested in trading for Mark Kotsay and the A’s wanted young talent in return. Thankfully they passed and hopefully they do again on Ankiel (and his HGH?).
Just a guess but:
According to the simulation, CC only improves the Yankees by three victories because he is replacing Moose, a 20 game winner. One would think the simulation would probably have Moose at around 15 wins next year. Put CC at around 18 games and you have a 3 game win difference.
Now you add another pitcher like Lowe, who takes the 3 slot in from of Pettitte- 14-14, 4.54 ERA, another year older, or the combo of Rasner/Hughes/IPK. According to a simulation, you’re making up more ground based on those 2008 performances.
I remember that. Billy Beane wanted Hughes and Duncan for Mark Kotsay.
Sounds like the Yankees are targeting Lowe next??
Besides a sinker, what pitches does he have?
His WHIP was 1.13 and in 34 starts he pitched 211 innings, with 92.3 pitches/game. Does that mean he’s more efficient, or only a 6 inning pitcher?
——-
Either way that is fine. We have a real bullpen now. We only need 6 innings.
Damon loves the C.C. deal . . . . .
http://www.boston.com/sports/b.....tra_bases/
sooo happy!!!
http://theblogofchampions.com/.....hia-signs/
1) I hope everyone on that flight was appreciative of the fact that they had the best news of the season before anyone else.
2) I hope this is Cash’s lo key style and not management cutting corners in the worst places.
BJK, then that simulation is a bunch of crap. If you want to assign “wins” to a player there has to be some baseline. For example, if the Yankees replace A-rod with Albert Pujols maybe that only nets the Yankees 1 more win. Does that mean Pujols is a 1 win player? No.
Boston Dave-
The Cards reportedly offered Ankiel for Putz. I haven’t heard the Mariners say yes.
The reported offer doesn’t reflect what the Cards would take for Ankiel. Joel Sherman reported yesterday the Cards were interested in Kennedy. Who knows?
No Tex the way Girardi is talking about Swisher at 1B
Can everyone please stop bringing up the HGH stuff. Who cares if someone uses HGH. It doesn’t help performance.
“Also after next season, i believe some other OFs are FAs.
Upton, Crawford? They can be Yankees too, and the proze at first base. Albert Pujols. Save the money going to Tex and bring Albert in.”
2010 OF FA’s include Holliday, Bay, Ankiel,Winn, Damon, Werth, Nady and Crawford Dye and Ordonez if options not picked up.
Also on the list are OF/DH Matsui and Guerrero.
Does anyone else think we should put joba in the pen? here’s how my rotation would then play out:
cc
wang
lowe (if signed, of course)
sheets/burnett
pettite
and then the pen has marte/joba/ and mo.
i like that better.
With all the talk of reaching our budget limit I’m surprised not more fans are talking about cutting ties with Damon and Matsui. Those guys aren’t part of the long term plan. Do we really have to keep them for 1 more year? It’s only one year. With all of our talent in the low minors, I don’t think waiting for the draft picks makes too much sense. We’re in need of AA or AAA position player prospects closer to the major leagues.
There’s a great deal we could do to this roster by trading the two of them.
Boston Dave:
I think what they are saying is something like this: Mussina won 20 so whoever “replaces” him in the rotation has to basically win 20, or it’s a net loss. Pettitte won 14 so whoever “replaces” him has to win at least that or it too is a net loss. What would be interesting to know is: their numbers included Wang and Joba, presumably for a full season, so how many wins were they projecting for them in this equation?
All you people who were begging me to drive down to SFO last night were faked out by Cashman yet again; the Oakland airport was the obvious choice.
WYH, actually the deal was Ankiel and a prospect for Putz. I’m not sure how good the prospect offered is but for a guy like Putz you’d think it has to be a blue chip prospect.
rodg12 is roger clemens
“Well, it’s not easy to get guys to play in New York, so maybe signing CC helps us with other guys,” Damon said.
Has NY turned into the town where everyone wants to visit but no one wants to live? What’s so bad about NY? The cost of living? The media? The management? The players? The fans? What is it?
Patrick-
I hear you. Not supporting any type of computer simulation, just taking a crack at translating it.
So How did Cashman get from Oakland to SF?
He must have flown Southwest…Right?
Why do you have an obsession with CF….when we have a top-rated prospect plus two other guys under 26 on the roster
————————————————————
i am excited about ajax but if you think we will not get a cf you are crazy.
i know we are not trading cano.
all i am saying is that i would.
if he doesn’t hit he is worth nothing & is as bad as it gets on the bases.
feefooo = moron.
Please show me one article with a scientific study that says HGH is a performance enhancer. I’ll hang up and listen…….
Mike-
Looked up Chamberlain’s mechanics. I would keep him in the starting rotation, where he has less chance of overthrowing up to 98-100 mph, therefore less strain on the shoulder.
Wave Your Hat,
If the Yanks are going to sell low on Kennedy, I still hope they can do better than an average player.
I’d honestly rather have Gardner in CF than Ankiel. Damon and Nady aren’t great defensively. They are passable. Adding Ankiel to play CF might give them one of the weaker defensive OF in the game.
The Yankees seem more interested in building a team around solid pitching and defense (what a concept). I’m all for it.
“There’s a great deal we could do to this roster by trading the two of them.”
You’re right. We could score even fewer runs.
“Anyone out there ever heard of AccuScore?”
I have never heard of this statistical model. It’s definitely not one of the ones that’s commonly used.
People all over are trying to jump into the sabermetrics thing and coming up with their own flavor of baseball simulation models – they are basically trying to glob onto the success of baseball prospectus and things like marcel projections or bill james’ projections.
The problem with these new models is that it’s often imossible to know what’s in them.
All this said – I can tell you after reading that Yahoo article – what they did makes almost no sense. That’s just not the right way to estimate what they are trying to do.
There’s a saying in statistics – garbage in and garbage out. That’s what that estimate strikes me as.
If nothing else, the yankees roster isn’t set so trying to do what they are trying to is sort of impossible or more specifically incomplete and meaningless.
Let me rephrase my earlier point: we still have two more slots to fill in the rotation. Once that’s done, one can properly assess how the 2009 rotation stacks up against both the 2008 paper rotation and what we actually got through the season.
I think the 2009 rotation is going to look better — on paper.
“Mike-
Looked up Chamberlain’s mechanics. I would keep him in the starting rotation, where he has less chance of overthrowing up to 98-100 mph, therefore less strain on the shoulder.”
I am dumbfounded that we are even still having this conversation. The Mets bullpen was poor last year. Maybe they should move Santana into it?
“So How did Cashman get from Oakland to SF?
He must have flown Southwest…Right?”
Cab or Limo would be my guess!!!
I predicted 7 years, 164 mil…..pretty close, huh ? ( I am straining my arm patting myself on the back ) LOL
Happy that Damon is happy but I really want to read the LeBron quotes about CC signing lol
“Oliver Perez Looking For Five Years, $70MM”
Are we interested in Mr. LightsOut ?
I think ESPN uses accuscore. It may be their “brand”
Wave,
The yankees could probably achieve an outcome similar to trading for Ankiel by signing Juan Rivera and moving Damon to CF.
Ankiel isn’t really a CF so getting him IMO is similar to getting a corner bat.
That’s something I’d like them to consider. Getting Rivera.
Alternatively I’d like them to consider trading for Nick Johnson and moving Swisher to LF.
Johnson is so injury prone – but if he gets hurt swisher goes back to 1b and they use their OF depth.
If Johnson actually stays healthy he’s a very poor man’s Tex.
“The Braves will guarantee A.J. Burnett a fifth year, and the Yankees are now going to revise their offer.
There’s a good chance that the bidding could exceed the total value of Carlos Zambrano’s extension ($91.5M over five years) with the Cubs.”
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....=blogEntry
Boston Dave,
Kennedy is unlikely to ever get a better than average major league player in return in a trade. Especially one making around $1MM a year. Let’s be realistic.
Ankiel has limitations but he can hit and he is cheap.
He doesn’t have to be the everyday CF. We could play him when having a below average CF is likely to hurt less.
You aren’t going to like Gardner, for all his defensive prowess, if he has a .320 OBP and a .350 SLG.
Who would do a better job writing my paper about heritage development in Cairo:
a) Derek Jeter
b) A-Rod
c) Cash-money
d) Miguel Cairo
get back to me ASAP if you have useful info. tx.
**JOBA IS A STARTER!!!!!!!!**
I had to get that outta my system.
From Nick Cafardo (Boston.com):
“One baseball executive offered an observation early in this process that seemed to bear truth this morning with word of CC Sabathia’s reported seven-year, $161 million deal: The Yankees will have to overpay to get any major free agent.
They sure did.”
Please. The Mets gave up a package of prospects AND a huge deal. The Yankees gave a comparable deal without losing the prospects and jealous, whiny, writers and GM’s are going to knock the Yankees for it. People all around baseball were saying how the Mets got a great deal.
Isn’t CC for $$$$ better than Santana for $$$$ and prospects ??
krod press conferance on wfan any minute
“is that 5-6 games over a replacement level starting pitcher or a league average starting pitcher?”
Patrick,
That’s wins above replacement, yes. This is a key point because right now the guys tentatively in the yankees rotation besides Wang and Joba could very well perform at replacment – they did last year.
So upgrading to CC is literally upgrading from potential replacement to one of the leagues 3 best pitchers. That’s a huge upgrade.
That’s nearly as large a gain in wins as the yankees could possibly have mustered. Nothing could have been more important.
Boston Dave
i agree.it doesn’t make any sense.
It’s not as if the Red Sox have had to over-pay for anyone…
Is that the same guy who said the Sox were willing to go 250 over 10 for Teix?
*JOBA IS A STARTER!!!!!!!!*
2nd
“You aren’t going to like Gardner, for all his defensive prowess, if he has a .320 OBP and a .350 SLG.”
I’d rather have Gardner and keep Kennedy (rather than sell low) then have a guy who is going to give the Yankees one of the worst defensive OF in the game.
Why bother signing great pitchers if the defense to back them up is poor? Nothing gets under a pitcher’s skin more than errors and poor defensive play. They got Swisher for that reason. They like Cameron for that reason. It’s why teams aren’t all over Adam Dunn. Defense… it actually matters.
Before people start thinking that Cashman blinked with the 7th year and the opt-out clause, consider this: CC was also in deep negotiations to become the next Senator from Illinois. Cash had to get the deal done and fast.
CB,
If we can’t sign Teixeira I hope the Nats get him and trade us Nick Johnson. I’d take the risk on Nick any day.
I’m open to other alternatives in CF, but whoever we get has to be able to play CF some. I don’t think Damon can play there on an every day basis anymore and stay healthy. That’s why I like Ankiel.
If we got Teixeira, then Swisher could be in the CF mix. My preferred outcome of all this is that the Yanks sign Lowe or Sheets, and Texeira, and call it a day. Doesn’t look likely to happen.
Anyone else find it strange that the METS TV Network isn’t carrying the press conference live. We know they have cameras there as they have been there live all week.
Opt-out doesn’t bother me much. From what I hear, this was going to be in his contract no matter where he signed.
Also, agree with Nick in SF, if he opts out, it means we got 3 good years from him.
Plus, how many teams can realistically match the remaining portion of his deal if he does opt out? Is the market for a No. 1 going to push much above $25M a year by 2012 (if at all)? Doubt it.
Worry about 2012 after 2011.
Boston Dave,
One more time.
The Yanks aren’t going to get Cameron if they sign two more FA pitchers. I’d love it if they did. I’m a Cameron fan. But it isn’t going to happen, so quit saying you prefer Cameron to Ankiel.
If they don’t sign two more FA pitchers, look for them to try to sign Cameron if they don’t go for Teixeira.
“Is that the same guy who said the Sox were willing to go 250 over 10 for Teix?”
probably. The Sox paid a ransom to get Daisuke (with interest/time value of money taken into the equation you can make a sound argument that he costs them $23M/season).
They are no doubt willing to give Tex 8/160 or more.
The Sox have become the most hypocritical team in all of sports. They whined for years about the “Evil Empire”. Nothing is worse than whining and complaining, then doing the same thing, and STILL complaining about it.
“There’s a good chance that the bidding could exceed the total value of Carlos Zambrano’s extension ($91.5M over five years) with the Cubs.””
Ri-bleeping-diculous!
CB,
Thanks for the answer. I’m not sure if this even exists but is there a number of wins that a replacement level TEAM would have?
I’m basically trying to figure out if its possible to calculate (approximately) how many wins above replacement that each player provides and add them to the # of wins a replacement team would have. I’d be curious to know if that number matches up to how many games the team actually won. I think I’ve seen the guy at Replacement Level do something similar to this.
“The Yanks aren’t going to get Cameron if they sign two more FA pitchers. I’d love it if they did. I’m a Cameron fan. But it isn’t going to happen, so quit saying you prefer Cameron to Ankiel.”
I’d prefer a soup bowl sitting in CF to Ankiel. Ankiel = overrated and an admitted HGH user. I’m sure that would go over well in the NY media.
“If we can’t sign Teixeira I hope the Nats get him and trade us Nick Johnson. I’d take the risk on Nick any day.”
Okay, why would Tex sign with the Nats, who are one of the worst teams in MLB?
““There’s a good chance that the bidding could exceed the total value of Carlos Zambrano’s extension ($91.5M over five years) with the Cubs.””
Ri-bleeping-diculous!”
My exact thoughts
“Okay, why would Tex sign with the Nats, who are one of the worst teams in MLB?”
There are 200 million reasons why Tex would sign with the Nats…
Wave,
The other wonderful part of Johnson is that it involves making a deal with Bowden. Never a bad thing.
I think Johnson would be perfect – he’s making $5.5M. If healthy I’d say that tex would be no better than a one game upgrade on Johnson.
With Swisher they can afford to take the risk on Johnson should he get hurt yet again.
I think CF will wind up as a rotation if they decide to trade for a corner bat. Damon, Gardern, maybe swisher for say 10 games or so. Something like that.
I think Rivera is also worth a shot on a one year $2M deal with a team option. In this market I think that’s all he might get. If he’s good have him play RF in 2010.
“Okay, why would Tex sign with the Nats, who are one of the worst teams in MLB?”
Not saying it will happen but he is from that area and the Nats are reportedly going to offer a huge contract. It’s at least an option.
If the Nats offer the biggest contract, it’s a real possiblity. Worst case, they push the Red Sox to pay more.
4:06pm: ESPN’s Keith Law believes bidding on Burnett will exceed the value of Carlos Zambrano’s contract, which is for $91.5MM over five years.
Good, let someone else overpay for him.
“There are 200 million reasons why Tex would sign with the Nats…”
Do they have that kind of money? I’ve never thought of the Nats as a big payroll kind of team. Actually, I don’t think about the Nats at all. LOL!
“I’d prefer a soup bowl sitting in CF to Ankiel.”
Ah, now I see why you are having trouble following my argument.
I’d find a bowl of soup entertaining for a game, if we didn’t need to win it. On a day in and day out basis, the lack of range a bowl of soup would show would begin to annoy me.
Also, what about hitting? Especially if it was noodle soup? Not good.
From Buster Olney’s blog:
“In the meeting that Sabathia had with the Yankees, a question was asked in the room about whether there was an irreparable split between the two most dominant personalities in the room, A-Rod and Derek Jeter, and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman responded by talking about how the two men are just different.
Sabathia already is friends with Jeter, and Sabathia is known for being a great teammate who tends to draw others together. When there was a team cookout in Cleveland, it would be at the Sabathias’ house, invariably, with Sabathia’s mother dishing out the food. Sabathia will make the atmosphere in the Yankees’ clubhouse better, and he will make the team better. Whether that will be good enough in New York remains to be seen. “
Who are these ‘Nats’ that people keep mentioning??
“Who are these ‘Nats’ that people keep mentioning??”
Didn’t you see them in that playoff game against CLE? They were all over Joba. The poor kid couldn’t even see the plate. I wonder why the manager didn’t pull the team off of the field……..
WYH:
Ankiel isn’t a very good hitter. Not a very good average/OBP guy at all. Doesn’t walk much at all. He was lousy in the 2nd half last year as it seemed pitchers were on to him a bit.
Nick in SF
December 10th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
Who are these ‘Nats’ that people keep mentioning??
i think they are distant cousins to the midges that bothered joba in the playoffs.
Why is everyone against trading for Ankeil? I say pull the trigger hand him Igawas glasses and have him go back in the rotation. Ever heard of lightning in a bottle?
I wonder how many teams have discussed any kind of a deal with Carl Pavano …
“Also, what about hitting? Especially if it was noodle soup? Not good.”
Just saying… you don’t make a commitment to improving pitching and defense and then trade for a weak CF, especially if it entails selling low on prospects to get him.
They won’t be in deep trouble if they don’t sign a guy or make a trade right away. Let the free agent market unfold and find a bargain or a stop-gap option without having to give up too much. There is a reason the Cardinals are shopping Ankiel.
“I think Rivera is also worth a shot on a one year $2M deal with a team option. In this market I think that’s all he might get. If he’s good have him play RF in 2010.”
The 2006 Rivera, yes. The 2008 Rivera, no. With all of the other gambles in our lineup, I’m not sure I like the idea of adding another one.
Oh man the Nats suck. If Tex goes there he will hate Boras for years to come just like A-Rod in Texas.
“In the meeting that Sabathia had with the Yankees, a question was asked in the room about whether there was an irreparable split between the two most dominant personalities in the room, A-Rod and Derek Jeter, and Yankees general manager Brian Cashman responded by talking about how the two men are just different.”
Interesting that CC cares about such things. This leads me to believe that he places a lot of value on team harmony and togetherness. I think that Jeter has managed to find a way to tolerate Alex and his drama. That should suffice for CC for now.
Now, the real concern will be this “no candy” rule of Girardi’s. Somehow, I don’t think this is going to sit well with CC as he strikes me as someone who enjoys candy.
“Sabathia will make the atmosphere in the Yankees’ clubhouse better”
Not sure i agree with you Boston Dave. If Nieves couldnt better the atmosphere in the clubhouse i cant see how C.C. does it.
how about chris young even though he has a horrific obp?
i would love mclouth.
ajax,kennedy,???
“Ankiel isn’t a very good hitter.”
He had an OPS+ of 120 and 119 the last two years. For $900K I’ll take that.
CB, I understand that he throws a heavy sinkerball, gets lots of gb’s, but how many times did people go yard on him ???? He gives up a wealth of long outs from the games I’ve seen him pitch for the Dodgers……Your the Numbers guru, I don’t know ….
“I’m not sure if this even exists but is there a number of wins that a replacement level TEAM would have? ”
Patrick,
This number is very well known. In fact its sort of the basis for the notion of a replacement level player. Or at least a logical implication of the idea.
That said there is a major disagreement over what this number should be set at.
Keith Woolner at baseball prosectus invented the idea of replacement level. He basically defined a team of replacment level players as a team that would win around 25 games in a season.
Woolner’s invention of replacement level was terrific. Unfortunately how he put the idea into practice wasn’t great.
In short – he set the level of replacement much too low. So low that it no longer fit his own definition.
One of the things baseball prospectus did was to basically say their replacement level players would be very bad both offensively and defensively.
Instead of a player like Gardner – replacement bat with a plus glove. They kind of set replacement so the replacment level CF would like Garnder’s bat and Nate McClouth’s glove. That player would never be in the majors. He’s not even marginally acceptable.
This also gets into a bigger issue with baseball prospectus – their defensive statistics are horrendous. They’re based on something called the davenport translations from one of their founders clay davenport and are completely outdated. Really bad. So its hard to take their wins above replacement stat seriously in any way.
A much better estimate for what a replacment level team would win is around 47 wins. That’s a good one. Around there. That comes from Tom Tango and the way he puts it together makes a lot of sense.
“I think Rivera is also worth a shot on a one year $2M deal with a team option. In this market I think that’s all he might get. If he’s good have him play RF in 2010″
If it’s 1yr/$2M, why not? Low risk.
The Yanks can afford to wait a little while with regards to their position player needs and find some bargains. That would qualify as one.
“I love the fact that we(the yankees) have more money than Jesus Christ”
-yankee fan on the Michael Kay show
I wonder how much $$ is in JC’s bank account?
“would like Garnder’s bat and Nate McClouth’s glove”
are we talking about the gold glove winner here? hahaha. still laughing over that one.
“I understand that he throws a heavy sinkerball, gets lots of gb’s, but how many times did people go yard on him ????”
Not very often at all. It’s a real strength of his.
Last year he only allowed 0.6 HR/9 innings. That was one of the best rates in baseball. For comparison CC allowed home runs at a higher rate – .68 HR/9 innings. Santana was 0.88HR/9. The year before Lowe was at .9HR/9. For his career he’s .7HR/9.
Not giving up home runs is one of his real strengths. Given the number of innings he throws he gives up very few HRs.
This lineup is good enough to win the World Series if the starting pitching, bullpen, and defense is good. We need to stop thinking about scoring 1000 runs and start thinking about how we can keep the other teams from scoring 700. The Phillies scored 799 and gave up 680. Tampa Bay 774/671. This lineup can score 800.
Damon
Jeter
Nady
ARod
Posada
Cano
Swisher
Gardner
ESPN projects that Joba will have the lowest DIPS ERA in baseball next year. CC was either 4th or 5th.
Can somebody explain DIPS?
forgot Matsui in there
“The 2008 Rivera, no. With all of the other gambles in our lineup, I’m not sure I like the idea of adding another one.”
He was hurt for much of the season. When he came back and got some games under him he started raking the ball.
I’m not sold on him but if we’re talking about cheap solutions he’s one I like.
OPS for players like Ankiel is misleading because there’s such a divergence between his Slg% and his OBP%. He’s a good example of a player whom OPS’ slg % bias makes a big difference.
Take a look at his wOBA. Much less impressive.
it is nice having Baseball Tonight back.
(despite the haters)
Im reading that they can get 2 of the Sheets,Burnett,Lowe. Wouldnt it be better to get Teix with some of that money instead of 2 of those pitchers? Wouldnt be less of a risk? Maybe Teix and Pettitte or which ever one would take 12 mill or less.
Anybody want to take a guess on what kind of deal Brad Penny might get?
The Yankees seemed to have some interest in the past. Maybe he’s worth a flier (assuming he’s in the Sheets category and gets a 1 or 2 yr deal, possibly incentive-laden). If they sign him cheap enough, he is the type of guy who could be moved to the pen if need be.
Good job for Cashman!
CC is an upgrade from last year’s Santana and is worth it.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....-at-dips1/
CB, Thank you for correctly my perception….Those are very good numbers…What % spike do you suspect we’d expect if he were to return to the AL ????
mel,
The Kings? Are they doing the 72 win bulls season when they lost twice to toronto? The Kings with no Martin?
thanks for the link, bru
Pat M.,
Let’s say his homeruns increase a lot – say 10%. That would be a fairly big spike. Say its’ even ridiculous – 20%.
A 20% increase would put his HR rate at .72HR/9. That’s still way better than league average. That’s still very good.
Lowe has never given up any home runs.
His numbers in boston during the hey day of the steroid era are unbelievalbe with respect to home runs
In 2002 – one of the biggest HR year in history – Lowe gave up 0.49 HR/9. That’s unbelievable. The year before .69 HR/9. Year before that .58HR/9.
And that was in Fenway during the biggest offensive explosion in history.
He just doesn’t give up many home runs.
Home runs for pitchers really appear to be a function of how many fly balls a pitcher allows. Some % of fly balls allowed get converted into HR.
The fewer fly balls you allow the fewer HR you’ll allow. The two correlate very closely.
Hey guys, first of all congratulations on landing Sabathia. I noticed a few comments and questions about the AccuScore article on Yahoo. I am the author of that article, and an analyst at AccuScore.com. We provide simulations for every game of the MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB seasons, as well as the playoffs. Each game is simulated 10,000 times to get an un-biased projection of a teams chances of winning.
We ran early simulations on the Sabathia move for this article. The Yankees have lost Mussina and Pettitte, so Sabathia offers a 3 win upgrade over the 2008 roster. However, he adds nine wins to the projected 2009 roster, with the Yankees finishing 90-72 after the move. The Yankees would finish 97-65 if Lowe was added, according to our simulations.
Now of course this is early, and can change based on future moves (especially if the Red Sox land Teixeira), but the simulations are meant to give an idea of the impact the move makes, and this one is obviously a great move for the Yankees to make up for the loss of Mussina and Pettitte.