Comments on: Working on a budget

By: Tim Williams

Tim Williams — Thu, 11 Dec 2008 06:30:57 +0000

Hey guys, first of all congratulations on landing Sabathia. I noticed a few comments and questions about the AccuScore article on Yahoo. I am the author of that article, and an analyst at AccuScore.com. We provide simulations for every game of the MLB, NFL, NHL, NBA, NCAAF, and NCAAB seasons, as well as the playoffs. Each game is simulated 10,000 times to get an un-biased projection of a teams chances of winning.

We ran early simulations on the Sabathia move for this article. The Yankees have lost Mussina and Pettitte, so Sabathia offers a 3 win upgrade over the 2008 roster. However, he adds nine wins to the projected 2009 roster, with the Yankees finishing 90-72 after the move. The Yankees would finish 97-65 if Lowe was added, according to our simulations.

Now of course this is early, and can change based on future moves (especially if the Red Sox land Teixeira), but the simulations are meant to give an idea of the impact the move makes, and this one is obviously a great move for the Yankees to make up for the loss of Mussina and Pettitte.

By: CB

CB — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:19:16 +0000

Pat M.,

Let’s say his homeruns increase a lot – say 10%. That would be a fairly big spike. Say its’ even ridiculous – 20%.

A 20% increase would put his HR rate at .72HR/9. That’s still way better than league average. That’s still very good.

Lowe has never given up any home runs.

His numbers in boston during the hey day of the steroid era are unbelievalbe with respect to home runs

In 2002 – one of the biggest HR year in history – Lowe gave up 0.49 HR/9. That’s unbelievable. The year before .69 HR/9. Year before that .58HR/9.

And that was in Fenway during the biggest offensive explosion in history.

He just doesn’t give up many home runs.

Home runs for pitchers really appear to be a function of how many fly balls a pitcher allows. Some % of fly balls allowed get converted into HR.

The fewer fly balls you allow the fewer HR you’ll allow. The two correlate very closely.

By: Boston Dave

Boston Dave — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:14:30 +0000

thanks for the link, bru

By: S.o.S.

S.o.S. — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:13:00 +0000

mel,
The Kings? Are they doing the 72 win bulls season when they lost twice to toronto? The Kings with no Martin?

By: PAT M.

PAT M. — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:10:54 +0000

CB, Thank you for correctly my perception….Those are very good numbers…What % spike do you suspect we’d expect if he were to return to the AL ????

By: bru

bru — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 23:07:37 +0000

http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....-at-dips1/

By: mmx

mmx — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 22:59:18 +0000

Good job for Cashman!

CC is an upgrade from last year’s Santana and is worth it.

By: Boston Dave

Boston Dave — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 22:53:34 +0000

Anybody want to take a guess on what kind of deal Brad Penny might get?

The Yankees seemed to have some interest in the past. Maybe he’s worth a flier (assuming he’s in the Sheets category and gets a 1 or 2 yr deal, possibly incentive-laden). If they sign him cheap enough, he is the type of guy who could be moved to the pen if need be.

By: S.o.S.

S.o.S. — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 22:49:50 +0000

Im reading that they can get 2 of the Sheets,Burnett,Lowe. Wouldnt it be better to get Teix with some of that money instead of 2 of those pitchers? Wouldnt be less of a risk? Maybe Teix and Pettitte or which ever one would take 12 mill or less.

By: vinny-b (bring back Petitte and sign Sheets at 2 yrs)

vinny-b (bring back Petitte and sign Sheets at 2 yrs) — Wed, 10 Dec 2008 22:48:33 +0000

it is nice having Baseball Tonight back.

(despite the haters)