Today in The Journal News
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- December
- 12
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The Yankees have three players in mind: Andy Pettitte, A.J. Burnett and Mike Cameron. Any of the three deals could be completed at any time.
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Today is non-tender day. In English, that means teams must decide by midnight whether to offer contracts to any players on the roster with 3-6 years of experience who are eligible for arbitration. For the Yankees, that is Brian Bruney, Xavier Nady and Chien-Ming Wang. All three will be offered arbitration.
The non-tender market is often interesting and because of the economy we could see a few useful players become free agents today. One team’s trash can often become treasure. There is some talk that the Orioles will let Daniel Cabrera go, for instance. While I don’t think the Yankees would be interested in him, some team would think they could fix him up.
It would be interesting to see Cabrera at spring training, if only because half of the Yankees (including Joe Girardi) wanted to strangle him last year for hitting them so often.
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Chad Jennings
Sam Borden
Cabrera broke Jeter’s hand (according to the rumors) so I can see why they don’t like the guy.
I’d give Daniel Cabrera a minor league deal if he’s willing to accept other than that I can’t see ML contracts to that type of wildness. Maybe he finds his inner Pedro/Edwin Jackson. I hope he takes a minor league contract, com’on Daniel your primo Robi is in NYC
Still not crazy about having Burnett until he’s 37 years old. I’d rather get Sheets for 2 or 3 years.
I rather get Sheets over Pettitte right now. But that’s just me.
With CC/AJ/Wang/Pettitte/Joba as our starting rotation, I am more than happy with our offense as it is.
Pete,
Does this mean Sheets is no longer an option? What if Pettitte passes? Does that mean that Hughes is our #4 starter?
“I rather get Sheets over Pettitte right now. But that’s just me.”
Most would agree that Sheets has more ability than Pettitte right now. However, if they sign Burnett for $17 mil (looking very likely), can they afford Sheets at another $15 mil/year? I don’t think so..
Pete, excellent job all week. Thanks for the continuous updates … enjoy some R&R!
Brandon Id like to get Sheets too but that creates a glaring problem with our rotation
CC
Wang
Burnett DL
Sheets DL
Joba 150 max
“He still have it. Andy basically pitched like he always does (velocity, stuff, movement, didn’t decline). In the majority of unimpressive starts he had, he was always one pitch away from bein out of trouble. He wasn’t off by much.”
Vinny I love ya but we can’t afford that, he even had a near season ending injury scare last season. You can’t continue to cator the past achievements, every SP in the AL is 1 pitch away from being out of trouble and aren’t off by much but the times he did it hurt this team big time.
If the Yanks are looking to lock up AJ (which I would rather them go after Sheets) and get Andy on the cheap (10-11M) maybe they will make a run at Tex. After losing Bobby and Jason we have to make up for 50+ HRs and 200+ RBIs somehow. I would rather have Tex for 8-10 yrs then Manny for 2. We could Swisher in LF and have Matsui DH.
Would make sense for a team to try and convert Cabrera into a reliever, no? He throws gas and his biggest problem is control, if it were possible for him to learn to harness his stuff and max out for 1-2 innings he could reinvent himself and become that much more valuable of an arm. The Yankees don’t really have the need for that type of middle relief project, but the cross-town New York team would be smart to take that kind of flier.
A-Rod would probably strangle Cabrera with his scarf.
“Most would agree that Sheets has more ability than Pettitte right now. However, if they sign Burnett for $17 mil (looking very likely), can they afford Sheets at another $15 mil/year? I don’t think so..”
The answer to that may lie with Cameron. If they don’t get Cameron they can afford it, or if they can get Milwaukee to take back some of Cameron’s salary, say by taking Igawa, then they can afford it.
Otherwise, AJ and Sheets plus Cameron seems to take them north of where the Yanks seem to want to end up.
Looks like the Yanks will get two of the three (Sheets, AJ, Andy) and that’s pretty strong. IF AJ gets five years he won’t be 37 until after the contract runs out. By comparison Sheets turns 31 in July, Derek Lowe will turn 36 in June, Pettite 37 two weeks later.
Cabrera can’t be gotten with a minor league offer, he’ll have plenty of suitors with that arm. I think he’s more Armando Benitez than anything else, but man what an arm!
Non-tender list could be very interesting… that can be a great place to improve the bench.
I’m betting Yankees sign AJ they cator to Andy and Sheets ends up in Boston. For a guy Joe Girardi wants badly I can’t believe Cash has not roped him yet.
I don’t like the idea of trading the Cabrera for Cameron. Why are we in the get older mode again. why not sign Dunn and put him in front of A-rod. It fills that gap people keep talking about. Plus Dunn/Matsui can play left/DH and Damon can go back to Center. Damon may not have an arm, but he can still cover a lot of ground without giving up young player like Melky.
Would like to hear peoples thoughts about this?
go after Chad Gaudin if non-tender! avoid Burnett and Lowe!!!
Patrick
December 12th, 2008 at 11:06 am
“I rather get Sheets over Pettitte right now. But that’s just me.”
Most would agree that Sheets has more ability than Pettitte right now. However, if they sign Burnett for $17 mil (looking very likely), can they afford Sheets at another $15 mil/year? I don’t think so..
————————————————————
I don’t know that the Yanks can’t afford the money for both Burnett and Sheets, but, they certainly can’t afford to take a chance that both of them might go down this year. If Sheets goes down with an elbow, NYY has just wasted 30 million dollars and two years.
Pete, while the Cabrera-Cameron exchange is an example of getting older for the 2009 season, it clears the way for the team to be younger come 2010 pending the arrival of Austin Jackson. Plus, I don’t think Cashman has been as focused on making the team “younger” as he is in making them more “athletic”–putting Damon back in CF and acquiring the completely unathletic Adam Dunn is the opposite of that. While Dunn’s bat would make a difference for sure, he’s not the kind of guy that fits with Cashman’s philosophy for the offense as outlined in his statements early in the offseason. Cameron is a proven ML CF’er who, while having his flaws, should still be able to provide above-average defense and offense. The only way I think Dunn gets attached to the Yankees is if Matsui gets traded, which seems unlikely due to his contract and injuries in ‘08. He is really best served for DH, putting him in left would be ugly.
“why not sign Dunn and put him in front of A-rod”
I’m worried Damon’s legs won’t hold up if he has to be the everyday CF. I think we need Damon to play as much as possible. Don’t think you can have Dunn without trading Matsui, unless you are willing to gamble on Damon’s health.
Burnett + Sheets = too much risk for 1 team
I wonder if there will be any useful bench players non-tendered today. Maybe somebody with pop who can play 1B/RF. Or they could take a flyer on Eric Hinske
Actually, you can’t put Dunn in LF in Yankee Stadium, you don’t want him at first or in RF so he has to be the DH. So Matsui would have to go.
“Burnett + Sheets = too much risk for 1 team”
Vinny,
as I been preaching and hoping the Yanks will take a shot at Chad Gaudin to be their #4 starter since the Cubs will most likely non-tender him due to their financial crisis. He will definitely be a cheap option.
A
December 12th, 2008 at 11:08 am
If the Yanks are looking to lock up AJ (which I would rather them go after Sheets) and get Andy on the cheap (10-11M) maybe they will make a run at Tex. After losing Bobby and Jason we have to make up for 50+ HRs and 200+ RBIs somehow. I would rather have Tex for 8-10 yrs then Manny for 2. We could Swisher in LF and have Matsui DH.
————————————————————
NYY has already made up much of that offense if the get Cameron. Swisher can replace Giambi’s 2008 numbers with his return to 2006-07 type seasons. Cameron, other than some average and a few steals would replace Abreu and Nady, if he stays, will more than pass what he hit as a Yankee and what the center fielders produced. If half of Rodriguez, Matsui, Posada and Jeter get to their yearly averages, NYY will by far surpass the 2008 offense.
Chad Gaudin?
you definitely do your homework, Ed. Will have to look him up.
Tom,
Hinske is already a free agent. There are unconfirmed rumors that he and the Orioles reached an agreement. If that’s the case, then he would be a Yankee in 2010, making him to play for every team in the AL east. lol.
“Burnett + Sheets = too much risk for 1 team”
Pettitte at 37 = too much risk for a rotation
“I don’t know that the Yanks can’t afford the money for both Burnett and Sheets, but, they certainly can’t afford to take a chance that both of them might go down this year. If Sheets goes down with an elbow, NYY has just wasted 30 million dollars and two years.”
I agree with the risk angle. If they get Sheets they should get Pettitte to balance some of the risk. Sheets (and Burnett for that matter) have a bad injury history and are relatively high risks at missing time next season. Pettitte is a pretty safe bet to throw 200 innings. The Yankees need guys that can throw innings next year.
I’d be happy with a rotation of:
Sabathia, Wang, Sheets OR Burnett, Pettitte and Chamberlain
“Burnett + Sheets = too much risk for 1 team”
I agree. I could see the Yankees doing this and then having 3 inexperienced pitchers in the rotation this year when AJ/Sheets get injured.
I’d much rather have had Sheets and Pettitte on short term deals than AJ for 5 years and Sheets for 2 years.
Chad Gaudin should not be pitching for the NY Yankees over any of these other options still available.
Tom
December 12th, 2008 at 11:18 am
I wonder if there will be any useful bench players non-tendered today. Maybe somebody with pop who can play 1B/RF. Or they could take a flyer on Eric Hinske
————————————————————
Hinske is a FA anyway, I believe.
The Phillies signing Raul Ibanez and him agreeing to that deal are pretty striking.
Who know what happens behind closed doors but it seems like the Phillies didn’t even have any kind of substantial talks with Abreu, Burrell, or Adam Dunn.
Given Bobby’s history in Philly I guess you could cross him off that list of potential guys.
But none of those guys would have cost a first round draft pick as ibanez did. And it doesn’t look like the phillies will sign any other type A guys so Ibanez will cost them a first rounder.
I suppose they went after him because they thought he’d be more affordable – but Abreu, Burrell and Dunn have been considered to be better players than him. And for them to not even negotiate/ make offers to any of those players says a lot about how little interest there seems to be in their services.
From Ibanez’s perspective it says a lot that he accepted the offer so soon. Tex hasn’t signed. Neither has manny. Teams are still focused on pitching.
I wonder if he was afraid that if he didn’t take the deal the dollas wouldn’t be there later?
Now Ibanez has set something of a mark for the corner outfield market. It’s going to tough for any of those guys to negotiate big deals.
If Ibanez was the first choice for teams looking at corner guys despite his draft pick compensation things aren’t looking real good for guys like Dunn.
“Pettitte at 37 = too much risk for a rotation”
You’re really sellign Pettitte short. Pettitte still pitched 200 innings and had an ERA of 4.54. If he’s the 4th starter on the team that has a TREMENDOUS amount of value.
Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Peavy, Joba.
that should be the rotation next season, and for the next couple seasons.
Vinny,
don’t let the ERA scare you when he was a starting pitcher for the A’s in 2007. Oakland is a hitter’s park, I think.
Remember the game when the Yanks were 1 hit in 2007, which Damon broke the no-hit in the late innings? Gaudin was the pitcher.
“I rather get Sheets over Pettitte right now. But that’s just me.”
I’m with you Brandon.
“Pettitte at 37 = too much risk for a rotation”
Lot less risk than Sheets represents.
“You’re really sellign Pettitte short. Pettitte still pitched 200 innings and had an ERA of 4.54. If he’s the 4th starter on the team that has a TREMENDOUS amount of value.”
200 IP from Pettitte last season and most of them not good ones.
Sheets had 198 IP and his innings atleast helped lead a team to the playoffs. You can pretty much say before CC got there he was carrying Milwaukee’s staff.
My wishful thinking tagline.
“Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Peavy, Joba.
that should be the rotation next season, and for the next couple seasons.”
I agree. That would be SICK.
Come on Jake. Listen to reason.
Cameron at $10 million (half of Tex’ projected annual salary) is a waste of money. Melky will bounce back this year. Gardner adds a needed dimension. And I don’t want 140 strikeouts in the lineup just to get 20 HRs. Message to Cash: Forget about Cameron.
“Remember the game when the Yanks were 1 hit in 2007, which Damon broke the no-hit in the late innings? Gaudin was the pitcher”
ok. Believe i may remember the game. One of those late west-coast games ?
“Sheets had 198 IP and his innings atleast helped lead a team to the playoffs.”
he also couldnt finish the season because of a muscle tear near his throwing elbow that may or may not lead to his inability to pitch anywhere close to 198 innings in 2009.
i think Sheets may be worth the risk of a 2 year deal, but lets not pretend Pettitte is more of a risk than Sheets. its not even close.
Forget Burnett too risky for that length of time. Sign Sheets for 2, Pettite for 1 and bring in TEX. There are also great starters available next year to replace Pettite such as Harden, Bedard and Lackey
CB
December 12th, 2008 at 11:24 am
The Phillies signing Raul Ibanez and him agreeing to that deal are pretty striking.
Who know what happens behind closed doors but it seems like the Phillies didn’t even have any kind of substantial talks with Abreu, Burrell, or Adam Dunn.
————————————————————
Almost as telling is the zero interest that teams seenm to have in everybody’s favorite 2nd baseman, Orlando Hudson. I’d say that his requested cost and wrist surgery and two thumb ligament surgeries in two years on the same thumb is scaring everyone.
Sheets as a #4, even with the injury risk he carries is absolutely incredible. We are talking about the starter of the freakin’ all-star game last year as our #4.
Ed, I think Oakland is more of a pitchers park. Or, at least has the reputation of being one.
“Sabathia, Wang, Burnett, Peavy, Joba.”
Turntwo, in about 2 years that would be about a 100 million dollar rotation. When you consider that Peavy isn’t waving his no trade clause unless NY gives him more money and Wang will be a free agent sooner than later and I can’t see him agreeing to accept a deal smaller than what Burnett is getting.
Not to mention what it would cost the Yankees in terms of prospects along with the cash. I can’t see the Yankees doing it at all.
To me it would be akin to having trading for Santana last year and then signing Sabathia this year. There’s no way the Yankees would have done that and I can’t see them doing that now.
“Turntwo, in about 2 years that would be about a 100 million dollar rotation.”
Unless CC opts out after 3 years.
Vinny,
nope, it was a home game.
Here’s the story to refresh your memory:
http://www.monstersandcritics......it_Yankees
Ed – CC chose the Yanks! where’s those people that thought he wasn’t coming?
December 12th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Vinny,
don’t let the ERA scare you when he was a starting pitcher for the A’s in 2007. Oakland is a hitter’s park, I think.
Remember the game when the Yanks were 1 hit in 2007, which Damon broke the no-hit in the late innings? Gaudin was the pitcher.
————————————————————Oakland is the biggest pitcher’s park in the league….It has more foul territory than most teams have outfield territory.
“200 IP from Pettitte last season and most of them not good ones.”
Brandon,
Pettitte had a 4.54 ERA last season not a 5.54 ERA so your assessment of most of them being not good is completely inaccurate. In fact he had an excellent first half of the season last year.
I get it, you want Sheets. You’re wrong about Pettitte however.
RayVTNC
December 12th, 2008 at 11:26 am
Sorry I left off the (*).
Alex Rodriguez $28,000,000
(*)Jason Giambi $23,428,571
Derek Jeter $21,600,000
(*)Bobby Abreu $16,000,000
(*)Andy Pettitte $16,000,000
Mariano Rivera $15,000,000
Jorge Posada $13,100,000
Johnny Damon $13,000,000
Hideki Matsui $13,000,000
(*)Mike Mussina $11,071,029
(*)Carl Pavano $11,000,000
(*)Kyle Farnsworth $5,916,666
Chien-Ming Wang $4,000,000
(*)LaTroy Hawkins $3,750,000
Robinson Cano $3,000,000
Jose Molina $1,875,000
(*)Morgan Ensberg $1,750,000
Andrew Brackman $1,184,788
(*)Wilson Betemit $1,165,000
Brian Bruney $725,000
(*)Billy Traber $500,000
Melky Cabrera $461,200
Phil Hughes $406,350
Shelley Duncan $398,300
(*)Sean Henn $397,448
Ian Kennedy $394,275
(*)Jeffrey Karstens $393,300
Jon Albaladejo $393,225
(*)Ross Ohlendorf $391,425
Joba Chamberlain $390,000
Humberto Sanchez $390,000
Total$209,081,577
—–
This is a great post. I’m sure there are some holes in it but it substantiates getting Tex and or Manny.
“I’m worried Damon’s legs won’t hold up if he has to be the everyday CF.”
I think this is a big issue with the whole Mike Cameron deal.
Cameron is clearly an upgrade over gardner and gives you less exposure to the risk that Gardner’s down side particular posed.
But the real issue isn’t getting Cameron – it’s upgrading CF.
I see only two ways to do this – get a guy like Cameron (and there are few CF available on the market) or move Damon back to CF.
The most efficient use of the budget would be to move Damon back to CF. Then you could take the $10M you were going to spend on Cameron and spend it on a better offensive player, eg. Dunn.
Having Swisher is a terrific asset if you feel that Damon can play CF because you could get a 1b and move Swisher to left (swisher can’t play CF regularly). That would allow them to trade for Nick Johnson or sign Tex and still not mess up the roster.
But that everything depends on the assessment of whether or not Damon could play 130 games in CF with Gardner giving him a rest.
If you are willing to sacrifice defense in CF then you have much more flexibility to improve the offense.
If you believe that Damon can’t play CF regularly or that you can’t sacrifice defense in that key spot then you really get hemmed in in what you can do. Then you have to get a CF and the pickings there are extremely thin.
But once you get Cameron then you are really locked in. Can’t really move Swisher anywhere.
The only other real way to improve the offense would be to trade Nady and upgrade right field. Not sure who that would be however.
“There’s no way the Yankees would have done that and I can’t see them doing that now.”
eh, i disagree with the direct relationship between the two situations, but i agree in the sense that i dont see the Yankees doing it. just my fantasy. not reality.
if you listen to the frustration coming from the Peavy camp, i think he’s ready to look at other markets outside of his preferred destinations of Atlanta, Chicago, and Houston… so i dont think the no-trade clause cant be massaged a bit.
but i could care less about the $100 million rotation. itd also be, hands down, the best rotation in the league. nothing could come close to that rotation.
but again, im not expecting it to happen… just what id love to see.
Tom,
thanks for correcting me, yeah it was a pitchers park.
“There are also great starters available next year to replace Pettite such as Harden, Bedard and Lackey”
I think Bedard has a lot to prove before he is safely labeled a “great” starter ever again. Lackey is almost sure to get an extension from the Angels, especially since they didn’t pay CC and are not a sure thing to retain Tex. Harden, I mean he’s basically a more-injured version of AJ Burnett, so if AJ is a Yankee this offseason, I don’t think they are going to be handing Harden a long-term deal.
RayVTNC, your payroll analysis in the previous post is somewhat flawed. Payroll is determined by the 25 man roster plus anyone on the DL, not the 40 man.
You also need to account for much more than $5 million in raises. Wang, Bruney and Nady are arbitration eligible. Nady only made 3.35 million last season and he had a career year so he’s in line for a huge raise (especially because its his third arbitration year). Wang and Bruney will get a raise but not a ton.
You also have to account for all the players the Yankees have at the minimum salary. Those guys usually will get a raise based on the amount of service time they have.
Finally, guys like Cano and Rodriguez are making more money in 2009 then they made in 2008. Its just the way their contracts are structured.
The bottom line is that with Sabathia signed the Yankee payroll is at approximately $167 million. If they sign Burnett for $17 million, Pettitte for $10 million, trade for Cameron (who makes $10 million) and sign someone for the bench at $1 million the payroll will be around $203 million.
These numbers are very rough because I essentially made a guess on what Nady, Wang and Bruney will make. I also guessed on how much the players making the minimum will get in raises.
GB,
thanks.see I knew I could count on you for correcting me. lol
Patrick —
I agree completely. Based on the last four years AJ is the better gamble, but both are risky. Shees is a year and a half younger, but I prepfer AJ’s success in the AL East:
Vs NYY 6-3, 2.43
Vs Bos 5-0, 2.56
Vs Tam 7-4, 2.98
Vs Bal 7-1, 4.97
That’s 25-and-8, 3.14 in the division! Two horrible starts vs Baltimore (9 2/3, 15 ER) skews his ERA against them.
did anyone see the Red Sox’s new logo? This one is better…
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/_drUM.....logo+1.jpg
well the payroll was $208 last year…..so its getting lower! 2010 would mark Pettitte, Cameron, Matsui and Damon off the books as well…..they’re fine
I too have been impressed watching Chad Gaudin. I know he had some injury issues but he’s a really good pitcher. And he’s only 25.
For those who haven’t seen him pitch, here is a mini scouting report I found.
“Listed at 5′10″, Gaudin is smaller than the prototypical starting pitcher. However, he compensates with excellent ’stuff.’ Gaudin’s arsenal consists of a low-90’s 4-seam fastball and a heavy-sinking 2-seam fastball that sits in the high-80s-to-low-90s. He complements these pitches with a hard-breaking slider and a changeup. Gaudin struggles with his control at times, but has shown that he can be a reliable middle-of-the-rotation pitcher or an excellent option coming out of the bullpen.”
I got this from FOX Sports. I didn’t know that the 40 man roster was the Team $200M salary thing. As you can see by the stars (*) these salaries are gone & that is where the $88M comes from. The Bronx Banter had a good writeup on this, but basically $88M minus $5M in salary increases to Wang, Bruney & Nady leaves $83M/yr to be split with CC ($23M), AJ ($17M), AP ($10M), & whoever ($33M). Now couple that with Damon & Matsui next year off the books & it adds $26M more. (Note, both players could still be resigned for less money as well.) [So Sheets, Tex & Manny would total about $53M) which is less than the $59M basically still available.]
2008 PayrollNYY
Player Salary
Alex Rodriguez $28,000,000
(*)Jason Giambi $23,428,571
Derek Jeter $21,600,000
(*)Bobby Abreu $16,000,000
(*)Andy Pettitte $16,000,000
Mariano Rivera $15,000,000
Jorge Posada $13,100,000
Johnny Damon $13,000,000
Hideki Matsui $13,000,000
(*)Mike Mussina $11,071,029
(*)Carl Pavano $11,000,000
(*)Kyle Farnsworth $5,916,666
Chien-Ming Wang $4,000,000
(*)LaTroy Hawkins $3,750,000
Robinson Cano $3,000,000
Jose Molina $1,875,000
(*)Morgan Ensberg $1,750,000
Andrew Brackman $1,184,788
(*)Wilson Betemit $1,165,000
Brian Bruney $725,000
(*)Billy Traber $500,000
Melky Cabrera $461,200
Phil Hughes $406,350
Shelley Duncan $398,300
(*)Sean Henn $397,448
Ian Kennedy $394,275
(*)Jeffrey Karstens $393,300
Jon Albaladejo $393,225
(*)Ross Ohlendorf $391,425
Joba Chamberlain $390,000
Humberto Sanchez $390,000
Total$209,081,577
Andrew (Official Scorer)
December 12th, 2008 at 11:35 am
“There are also great starters available next year to replace Pettite such as Harden, Bedard and Lackey”
I think Bedard has a lot to prove before he is safely labeled a “great” starter ever again. Lackey is almost sure to get an extension from the Angels, especially since they didn’t pay CC and are not a sure thing to retain Tex. Harden, I mean he’s basically a more-injured version of AJ Burnett, so if AJ is a Yankee this offseason, I don’t think they are going to be handing Harden a long-term deal.
————————————————————
Depending on with whom and how the 2009 rotation looks, there should be little reason to tap into the 2010 FA market for starting pitchers.
Of course the Yankees can afford to take a risk on Sheets even with Burnett in the rotation.
We have 3-4 ML ready arms available as insurance in Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves and McAllister.
No other team in baseball has the luxury of that kind of insurance that would make it possible to take a risk on Sheets.
If Pettitte rejects our offer and Sheets signs with Boston, we’ll have to let the youngsters battle it out. But the silver lining is the money saved. We can use it to bolster the lineup.
Ed – CC chose the Yanks! where’s those people that thought he wasn’t coming?
December 12th, 2008 at 11:36 am
GB,
thanks.see I knew I could count on you for correcting me. lol
————————————————————
Ed, you can take that to the bank. I’ll correct you on your spelling, too and every mistake you make. Let me get my dictionary ready.
“That would allow them to trade for Nick Johnson”
CB,
As I said last night, if trading for Johnson would be the way to go, he would be our #3 hitter due to his patience. This is when we hope for the Nats to land Tex, and dump Johnson ASAP. I guess whoever is nontender today could be traded for Nick??
RayVTNC, scroll up and read my response to your post. The Yankees can’t afford Manny or Tex unless they clear a significant amount of payroll or are willing to go up to about $230 million.
GB,
LOL okay doky.
Sheets heads to Boston because of Pettitte’s indecision I’m gonna be the 2nd one to be pissed, GI Joe will be # 1.
My prediction – Sheets signs with Texas and reunites with his pitching coach from the Brewers who just took a job there.
He DID just take his house that was for sale off the market in Dallas.
“We have 3-4 ML ready arms available as insurance in Hughes, Kennedy, Aceves and McAllister.”
well, to say McAllister is ready is pushing it. a lot.
and this is also assuming that Hughes isnt also hurt the same time Sheets is, and Kennedy and Aceves pitch up to expectations, which Kennedy has already done once before.
not to be glass half-empty guy, but gotta look at it somewhat realistically.
Random thoughts:
-Can you imagine if we non-tendered any of Wang, Bruney, Nady? GM’s would be trampling each other to get to Wang.
-The Red Sox unis are alternate unis. Their alternate blue (navy!) uni with red lettering is pretty snazzy. The hanging socks hat is definitely not hanging. But it’ll sell like hotcakes with the fans. Guys, if you were a Red Sox fan would you walk around with dirty laundry as a logo?
-So no one knows what the deal for Cameron is? Can we assume it’s a pitcher on the 40-man to clear a space? Will they take on any salary?
-They’re still showing Liriano/Carmona/Melky/Peralta highlights. Melky looks the same. Maybe a little less around the gut. It seems like we haven’t seen him for years.
Ed – CC chose the Yanks! where’s those people that thought he wasn’t coming?
December 12th, 2008 at 11:41 am
GB,
LOL okay doky.
————————————————————
Just remember. You’d better not annoy me. I’m on a first name basis with Santa Claus. I call him Santa and he calls me …….uhhh….nah…I can’t say it here.
Well also re: the market for Sheets, Oswalt has also made a lot of noise about wanting the Astros to push to sign him. He’s offering to defer a bunch of money from his contract in the hopes that the team will make a run at him. It seems like the Astros have too many money concerns to take on Sheets even if Oswalt defers some dollars–they’ve been rumored to be interested in moving Valverde just to save on the raise he’s due for in arbitration. I think Sheets is looking like a “last guy to sign” candidate who gets a more favorable deal than first expected once the other FA pitchers are locked up and a team realizes they need a starter.
How about Pat Burrell as a useful bat for us?
Although Daniel Cabera and Robby Cano were childhood best buds, and remain very tight, its not a good idea to sign the guy… it would probably give Cano another excuse to goof off and have another crappy season.
We just got rid of the other Cabrera for precisely that reason.
sorry that link did not work ,
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“We just got rid of the other Cabrera for precisely that reason.”
Get.Your.Facts.Straight. Melky is still with the Yanks.
“Can you imagine if we non-tendered any of Wang, Bruney, Nady? GM’s would be trampling each other to get to Wang.”
The non-tenders this year will be very interesting.
I can’t see this happening but there’s been talk about Houston possibly non-tendering Ty Wigginton.
If that were to happen he would draw a lot of attention. In prior years I can’t imagine that Wigginton’s name would even come up in any way as a non-tender candidate.
That would basically mean that Houston felt they couldn’t even trade Wigginton at the salary he would get if he were to win his arbitration case.
Daniel Cabrera has always intrigued me. When his stuff is on the guy is absolutely filthy. I am from the school of thought that if someone “has it” there has to be a way to refine it or fix it if it isn’t working some of the time. I will always be a holdout on those players – especially pitchers – who have shown periods of brilliance. You don’t just forget how to pitch!
Cabrera definitely falls into that school. The guy will show “unhittable” – but then something quirkly can happen and he will unravel as quickly. I think he could be a great reclamation project for a top-notch pitching coach.
“But once you get Cameron then you are really locked in. Can’t really move Swisher anywhere.”
Once you get Cameron the only way to improve the offense is to trade Matsui, Damon, Nady or Swisher. There’s no other move left.
Trading any of those guys will substantially reduce the net production from whoever you are signing to improve the offense. And, the payroll will go up.
If the Yanks are going to sign two more pitchers for around, say, $25MM (probably more), and have Cameron, there’s really no payroll room left anyway to improve the offense further, so I’m not sure it’s really an issue.
If the Yanks sign two more pitchers and Cameron, they are going to project to a 98 or 99 win team, so I’m not sure I see the need to further improve the offense anyway.
Parlor game of the day. Where do the following end up?
1. Manny
2. Teixeira
3. AJ
4. Ben Sheets
5. Andy Pettitte
6. Derek Lowe
Hot stove special on espnews. Marlins president called Randy Levine to apologize for comments.
Thanks for the comments. Although some numbers change in 2009, AROD goes to $33M from $29 and Cano goes to $6M from $3M there is still plenty of $$ on the table both this year and next. Often teams will take a 1 year hit and know that their future doesn’t have to sustain the higher number. Like moving Damon’s & Matsui’s contracts next year an expense of $26M early to sign say Manny or Tex.
I know there are flaws in everything, and dollars can be renogotiated as well to stretch dollars to later even. (See Roy Oswalt) So if the Yanks want to they could even sign Andy to a 2 year deal of $8M and let him retire or back end his deal for payouts over 5 years or something.
Non-tender on Wigginton would be incredible for us. I don’t want to get my hopes up though so I’ll believe it when I see it.
CB
December 12th, 2008 at 11:51 am
“Can you imagine if we non-tendered any of Wang, Bruney, Nady? GM’s would be trampling each other to get to Wang.”
The non-tenders this year will be very interesting.
I can’t see this happening but there’s been talk about Houston possibly non-tendering Ty Wigginton.
If that were to happen he would draw a lot of attention. In prior years I can’t imagine that Wigginton’s name would even come up in any way as a non-tender candidate.
That would basically mean that Houston felt they couldn’t even trade Wigginton at the salary he would get if he were to win his arbitration case.
————————————————————
Houston has made so many mistakes with trades the last couple of years….Tejada (who they’re finding impossible to move, now) and Carlos Lee. They hit, but, they’re really bleeding Houston dry. I’d love to see NYY make a cash loan and small trade to releave them of Lance Berkman.
If you watched Daniel Cabrera against the Yankees you would think he is Cy Young
The only issue with Wigginton is that he can’t play shortstop. Thedy’d need to have another infielder that could.
“The only issue with Wigginton is that he can’t play shortstop. Thedy’d need to have another infielder that could.”
Cody Ransom?
mel
December 12th, 2008 at 11:55 am
Parlor game of the day. Where do the following end up?
1. Manny
2. Teixeira
3. AJ
4. Ben Sheets
5. Andy Pettitte
6. Derek Lowe
Hot stove special on espnews. Marlins president called Randy Levine to apologize for comments.
————————————————————
Yankees sign all of them to further annoy Florida and to make Luccino’s head explode.
“I’d love to see NYY make a cash loan and small trade to releave them of Lance Berkman.”
intriguing, although there’s been not even a peep as to him being available.
Berkman would fit perfectly into the middle of the lineup, and hold down 1B more than adequately enough.
would certainly cost a king’s ransom in prospects, however, and i dont see Cashman pulling the trigger on that type of deal.
Ed – CC chose the Yanks! where’s those people that thought he wasn’t coming?
December 12th, 2008 at 11:59 am
“The only issue with Wigginton is that he can’t play shortstop. Thedy’d need to have another infielder that could.”
Cody Ransom?
————————————————————
Pehaps, but, with Wigginton, you’d probably like a true glove man with some speed and a little hitting ability.
“If you watched Daniel Cabrera against the Yankees you would think he is Cy Young”
…Waits for GB’s comeback…
Mel,
1. Manny – Dodgers 2/52
2. Teixeira – Rag Sox- 7/175
3. AJ- Yankees 5/92
4. Ben Sheets Out on a limb here – Cardinals 2/20
5. Andy Pettitte Yankees 1/12
6. Derek Lowe Mets 4/60
TurnTwo
December 12th, 2008 at 12:01 pm
“I’d love to see NYY make a cash loan and small trade to releave them of Lance Berkman.”
intriguing, although there’s been not even a peep as to him being available.
Berkman would fit perfectly into the middle of the lineup, and hold down 1B more than adequately enough.
would certainly cost a king’s ransom in prospects, however, and i dont see Cashman pulling the trigger on that type of deal.
————————————————————
Of course it would be unlikely. Only through that out as a joke, but, Houston is in deep trouble. They’re already trying to move Tejada after one year, and nobody’s biting.
“Tejada (who they’re finding impossible to move, now)’
Only a year left on Tejada’s deal, so they’ll survive that. Lee deal is a killer. Signed thru 2012. Stros have an $11M option on Berkman for ‘11. Doubt he’s going anyplace without a pretty monsterous package going back.
Only ***threw*** that out
AJ signs w/ us Sheets will find his way to Fenway bank on it. It’s a move that would make thier GM look smarter and cost efficient.
“If the Yanks sign two more pitchers and Cameron, they are going to project to a 98 or 99 win team, so I’m not sure I see the need to further improve the offense anyway.”
Precision. That’s why.
Projections as they are done most often for baseball are really rudimentary.
They generally don’t factor in different scenarios of performance and don’t produce adequate ranges of performance.
The yanees may project to win 98-99 games in some model, but I’d guess those estimates aren’t very precise. Too many question marks and too many players prone to non-linear drop offs in performance. The variance around individual player estimates will be high.
The reason to upgrade the offense isn’t specifically to improve production – it’s to stratify risk better.
The yankees offense is built on a lot of “if statements.” Many, many more than the sox or the rays.
If Posada is healthy and can catch 130 games, if Cano bounces back, if swisher bounces back, if Jeter’s 2008 at the plate was more aberration than decline, if ARod is closer to 2007 than 2008, if Damon can stay healthy….
That’s a whole lot of ifs and it’s not real likely that all of them are going to pan out.
They need to improve the offense to hedge against those risks. You might not know which one of those risks will go south – but you know some will.
You have to be concerned about an offense with considerable down side risk. Risks that don’t get adequately factored into most models.
Remember – last year the 2008 yankees were projected to win 97 games.
Brandon (SHOW SHEETS THE MONEEEEEEEEY !, CC’s a Yank !)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
December 12th, 2008 at 12:02 pm
“If you watched Daniel Cabrera against the Yankees you would think he is Cy Young”
…Waits for GB’s comeback…
————————————————————
If he ever learns to pitch, instead of throw, he’ll be sensational. Ryan and Randy Johnson were in their 30’s before figuring out the control thing. If he gets cut loose, Ryan and Texas would be the perfect spot for him. It was Ryan that fixed Randy Johnson.
“Houston is in deep trouble. They’re already trying to move Tejada after one year, and nobody’s biting.”
its amazing to me the people in charge there in houston are still in charge.
prob with Houston is the pitching… plenty of offense, but they’ve got noone of substance behind Oswalt to get any sort of winning streak together.
that ballpark also doesnt exactly help recruit pitchers, either.
they may get to a point this season where Berkman would be available, though. i really dont see them as a serious competitor for the division, and if they continue to hemmorhage cash, players are definitely going to have to go.
Kd
AJ to us for 92/5? Good god I hope not. I wouldn’t go above 85
Patrick:
Maybe I’m missing the math:
payroll Total $209,081,577-$89,000,000 = $120,081,577.00
Add CC $23mil
AJ $17mill
Cameron $10mil
Pettite $10mil
sheets $13-15mil
from above add about $60mil thats $180mil
there would be room for Tex/Manny..
“AJ signs w/ us Sheets will find his way to Fenway bank on it. It’s a move that would make thier GM look smarter and cost efficient.”
Maybe, but the injury risk factor is far greater with Sheets. He only looks smarter and more cost efficient if he gets innings out of Sheet, which is miles from a lock.
Berkman was asked about after the World Series by Cashman. Any Yankee would love to have him. Houston said he wasn’t available then!
Remember – last year the 2008 yankees were projected to win 97 games.
==============================================
If Wang didnt get injured in a interleague game, 97 may just have been possible. 89 Without Wang/Posada/Matsui for a large chunk of the year. The projection was pretty spot on in my book….injuries ruin projections more than slumps do
“if someone “has it” there has to be a way to refine it or fix it if it isn’t working some of the time. I will always be a holdout on those players – especially pitchers – who have shown periods of brilliance. You don’t just forget how to pitch! …. I think he could be a great reclamation project for a top-notch pitching coach.”
Trisha – if that were really the case, then someone should have been able to fix Kyle Farnsworth, or to a more dramatic extent Rick Ankiel. Sometimes it’s a simple fix in the mechanics, sometimes it’s the use of certain pitches, sometimes a guy isn’t aware he’s tipping pitches, but sometimes it’s simply not so simple.
Cabrera almost no-hit NY once, but he was also one of the pitchers in the O’s major league record 30-3 loss. It’s like having Farsworth as a starter, except perhaps if the guys on the team would prefer Farnsworth over Cabrera as a teammate.
“I’d love to see NYY make a cash loan and small trade to releave them of Lance Berkman.”
That would be nice. That lefty bat at the new stadium…
Unfortunately, the strange Drayton McClain absolutely loves Berkman and Oswalt and wants them both to spend their careers in Houston and get inducted into the hall of fame as Astros (he believes both will get in evidently).
That’s why they haven’t traded Oswalt. And I think that’s part of why Oswalt is offerring to restructure his deal. He’s not going anywhere.
Wigginton getting non-tendered might actually be bad news for the yanks.
I’d think if he was a free agent he’d be able to get a starting job somewhere. There just aren’t that many 3b. The twins I’m sure would love to have him.
“If he ever learns to pitch, instead of throw, he’ll be sensational. Ryan and Randy Johnson were in their 30’s before figuring out the control thing. If he gets cut loose, Ryan and Texas would be the perfect spot for him. It was Ryan that fixed Randy Johnson.”
Weak I was expecting something snippy.
Tim Clougher
There is also $4M for AROD, $3M for Cano, $5M+ for (Nady, Wang, Bruney) as well. Which totals to $12M more.
Everyone here acts like a $200 million payroll is a normal thing. We shouldn’t have to go above $150 million to win. It’s insane to think we have to buy a full team.
Would Wigginton sign with a team that wouldn’t make him a starter? I have to think there’s a team out there that would outbid us and promise to make him a starter. Maybe not?
Brandon (SHOW SHEETS THE MONEEEEEEEEY !, CC’s a Yank !)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
December 12th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
“If he ever learns to pitch, instead of throw, he’ll be sensational. Ryan and Randy Johnson were in their 30’s before figuring out the control thing. If he gets cut loose, Ryan and Texas would be the perfect spot for him. It was Ryan that fixed Randy Johnson.”
Weak I was expecting something snippy.
————————————————————
Your mother wears pink combat boots.
How’s that?
These are the only “locks” right? So who do you plug the 8 holes with?
33 Brian Bruney R/R 6-3 235 02/17/82
62 Joba Chamberlain R/R 6-2 230 09/23/85
48 Phil Coke L/L 6-1 210 07/19/82
34 Damaso Marte L/L 6-2 215 02/14/75
CC Sabathia
42 Mariano Rivera R/R 6-2 185 11/29/69
41 Jose Veras R/R 6-5 235 10/20/80
40 Chien-Ming Wang R/R 6-3 225 03/31/80
Catchers B/T Ht Wt DOB
26 Jose Molina R/R 6-2 235 06/03/75
20 Jorge Posada S/R 6-2 215 08/17/71
Infielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
24 Robinson Cano L/R 6-0 205 10/22/82
2 Derek Jeter R/R 6-3 195 06/26/74
13 Alex Rodriguez R/R 6-3 225 07/27/75
— Nick Swisher S/L 6-0 215 11/25/80
Outfielders B/T Ht Wt DOB
18 Johnny Damon L/L 6-2 205 11/05/73
22 Xavier Nady R/R 6-2 215 11/14/78
Designated Hitters B/T Ht Wt DOB
55 Hideki Matsui L/R 6-2 210 06/12/74
Right now I project about $15M-$18M available this year plus $26M off next that could be accelerated (Damon & Matsui). So a ballpark figure of $41M to $44M they could use.
(Note this includes CC $23M, AJ $17M, AP $10M, & MC $10M.) Also Marte.
“If Wang didnt get injured in a interleague game, 97 may just have been possible. 89 Without Wang/Posada/Matsui for a large chunk of the year. The projection was pretty spot on in my book….”
It wasn’t spot on at all because it was projecting the yankees to score around 150 more runs than they did. It wasn’t close at all.
What you’re describing is happenstance due to the limited range of games any team like the yankees would happen to win.
Last year’s team was always going to win somewhere between 85 and 100 games.
If you picked the number of wins they would have at random you’d have a 1 in 15 chance of being right – without any computer doing any projections.
Last year the yankees didn’t hedge against the downside risk of going with young pitchers in the rotation and old players in the field.
This year they are massively hedging against underperfromance in the rotation by any one individual (though if AJ gets hurt it will sting given how much he’s making…).
But they have only partially addressed the downside risk in the offense.
You can never eliminate all risk. But the yanks have a lot of it on the field.
This is a big reason why they can’t afford to start Gardner in CF. He just compounds the downside risk in the line up.
CB
December 12th, 2008 at 12:10 pm
“I’d love to see NYY make a cash loan and small trade to releave them of Lance Berkman.”
That would be nice. That lefty bat at the new stadium…
Unfortunately, the strange Drayton McClain absolutely loves Berkman and Oswalt and wants them both to spend their careers in Houston and get inducted into the hall of fame as Astros (he believes both will get in evidently).
That’s why they haven’t traded Oswalt. And I think that’s part of why Oswalt is offerring to restructure his deal. He’s not going anywhere.
Wigginton getting non-tendered might actually be bad news for the yanks.
I’d think if he was a free agent he’d be able to get a starting job somewhere. There just aren’t that many 3b. The twins I’m sure would love to have him.
————————————————————
Twins or Giants or even Philadelphia would snap him up in a hurry, I’d think. Phillie puts him at 2nd base until Utley comes back in June and then trade Feliz?
“Would Wigginton sign with a team that wouldn’t make him a starter?”
I think he’d want a job that gets him at least 400-450 PA’s. Ain’t happenin’ in NYC. He’s the type of player everyone will be in on, not just the big market clubs. Somebody will be be able to offer him a fairly regular gig.
December 12th, 2008 at 12:03 pm
Mel,
1. Manny – Dodgers 2/52
2. Teixeira – Rag Sox- 7/175
3. AJ- Yankees 5/92
4. Ben Sheets Out on a limb here – Cardinals 2/20
5. Andy Pettitte Yankees 1/12
6. Derek Lowe Mets 4/60
kd, thanks for that. The Dodgers pulled their original offer, there’s no offers at all for Manny. If Tex goes to Boston, I can see the Angels taking a flyer. Either the Dodgers, Angels, or Yankees for Manny. Lowe to Mets sounds right. He said he wouldn’t mind the Yankees, so I guess he wouldn’t mind the Mets. And they truly need starting pitching. AJ/Andy to Yankees sounds right, but $92 sounds a bit high. Amazing though, that they’re going toe to toe with the Yankees. Atlanta fans are despondent at the thought of losing AJ to the Yankees. The players having been bugging AJ. We’ll see if it works. Ben Sheets? If Andy doesn’t sign, I guess he ends up here. I think he’ll be a late signing as will Manny. I don’t know why you don’t hear Milwaukee and Sheets. That’s the logical choice. Is there something to the medical reports? Houston sounds good. The Rangers, maybe? The Cubs are another logical choice.
2009 Total = 198.893638 2009 cost
SP CC Sabathia 23
SP Chien-Ming Wang 5
SP A.J. Burnett 17
SP Joba Chamberlain 0.39
SP Andy Pettitte 10
CL Mariano Rivera 15
RP Damaso Marte 3.75
RP Brian Bruney 1
RP Phil Hughes 0.40635
RP Ian Kennedy 0.394275
RP Jon Albaladejo 0.393225
RP Andrew Brackman 1.184788
C Jorge Posada 13.1
C Jose Molina 1.875
1B Nick Swisher 3.6
2B Robinson Cano 6
SS Derek Jeter 21.6
3B Alex Rodriguez 33
OF Xavier Nady 5
OF Mike Cameron 10
OF Johnny Damon 13
DH Hideki Matsui 13
U Someone 0.4
U Someone 0.4
U Someone 0.4
“If Wang didnt get injured in a interleague game, 97 may just have been possible. 89 Without Wang/Posada/Matsui for a large chunk of the year. The projection was pretty spot on in my book….””
I’m sure the projections had Mussina winning 20 games too.
“The yankees offense is built on a lot of “if statements.”
Now you are singing my song. Take a look at my reply to SJ44 of 4:26PM yesterday, and countless others before that. I completely agree with you.
However, I don’t think there is much you can do about that if you go with a pitching strategy. I’ve personally wanted the Yanks to sign only two FA pitchers (one of them CC), and spend the rest on the offense for the very reason that the Yanks’ offense next year rests on a lot of shaky assumptions.
The Yanks have chosen the pitching road, though, and I think Cameron is about the best you are going to do with the offense if you believe the Yanks pay attention to payroll. Only Tex or Manny would give you more net wins, and that would throw their payroll up close to $220MM.
With Cameron and three FA pitchers, they are already over $200MM.
Sure, they could sign Dunn, but they’d have to trade Matsui. Dunn is probably better than Matsui, but by how much? They could trade for Nick (I’m for that), but their payroll would edge up close to $210MM, and they’d have to sit somebody, so you don’t get his total value either.
Same for pretty much anything else they do once they get Cameron. A bench player or two would help, though.
“Your mother wears pink combat boots.
How’s that?”
Whatever Mr. born w/ a robot name.
CB – Agreed the offense may need a little boost. There are a lot of ‘ifs’.
I think I’ve made it clear that despite some posters opinions that signing Manny is the one and only instant ticket to a WS title, I’m very interested in seeing how the front office addresses the offense & defense by working with options other than Manny.
As Pete mentioned, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with non-tenders with regards to that.
We already have A-Rod’s bat which even the ‘98 team didn’t have. We need a well – balanced, consitent, hustling lineup with good defensive skills around that. Assuming we get at least most of the rotation we expect to, a consistent team BA in the .280-290 range with decent enough power, speed, hustle and patience to take a walk (all from top to bottom) would be better than having a couple guys just hitting for average, a couple guys who are just patient, a couple guys who really just run fast, a couple guys primarily hitting HRs, a couple DH’s, a couple defensive specialists and then adding one bat.
Sign Willy Taveras!
“1BNick Swisher 3.6″
Swisher is on the books for $5.3M in ‘09. Puts the number up over $200M. Luxury tax for that = $16M
Oooh. I read something bad about Taveras the other day. What was it? Bad back? Some kind of problem that was surprising because he was so athletic. Maybe some hole in his game.
//Everyone here acts like a $200 million payroll is a normal thing. We shouldn’t have to go above $150 million to win. It’s insane to think we have to buy a full team.//
Ace,
That’s all the Yankees know how to do and it’s bit them in the as* every year since 2001. Look at those championship teams from the 90’s: Good players, brought up for the most part through the system.
This franchise will never amount to anything with this mentality that they just can’t seem to shake.
If they haven’t figured it out already: Throwing over-priced superstars together does not equal to anything but 4th place!
I thought the Yanks get a pass on the luxury tax with the new stadium?
“I read something bad about Taveras the other day. What was it?”
That he can’t hit.
“I thought the Yanks get a pass on the luxury tax with the new stadium?”
Negative. They get a pass on revenue sharing. They don’t get a pass on the luxury tax. Everything over $162M is taxed at 40%.
Brandon (SHOW SHEETS THE MONEEEEEEEEY !, CC’s a Yank !)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
December 12th, 2008 at 12:27 pm
“Your mother wears pink combat boots.
How’s that?”
Whatever Mr. born w/ a robot name.
————————————————————
OK….let me work on that. I was working under pressure. I just spilled my Coca-Cola on my Sausage, Egg And Cheese.
I’ve got my “Snappy Combacks For Sportsboards” handy, now. Let me see what I can find, here.
“The Yanks have chosen the pitching road, though, and I think Cameron is about the best you are going to do with the offense if you believe the Yanks pay attention to payroll.”
I agree. And I also agree that the Cameron move is a real lock in move.
In many ways the biggest cost involved with Cameron isn’t melky or even 10M per se – it’s the opportunity cost his acquisition will incur.
Once he’s on the club you need to make a trade of someone on the roster to get anything done. The yankees don’t have many parts someone would want in a trade.
But with the pitching first strategy this may be an inevitable conclusion.
As it is they very well may be hanging much of the 2009 season on Robinson Cano.
I don’t see much way around it. For them to win the division Cano will not only need to rebound but to blossom – to take a non-linear step forward as a player.
He’s the one guy on the roster where you could theoretically get a lot of unexpected upside gain given his talent.
But then he was one of the worst players in baseball last year so…
Tim,
It’s a pass on the profit sharing, there’s no escaping the luxury tax. We will never be below the threshold. I want to say it’s about $160M this year?
Fredo,
Stop it! Something else. His weak bat is not a surprise.
ANSKY
December 12th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
CB – Agreed the offense may need a little boost. There are a lot of ‘ifs’.
I think I’ve made it clear that despite some posters opinions that signing Manny is the one and only instant ticket to a WS title, I’m very interested in seeing how the front office addresses the offense & defense by working with options other than Manny.
As Pete mentioned, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with non-tenders with regards to that.
We already have A-Rod’s bat which even the ‘98 team didn’t have. We need a well – balanced, consitent, hustling lineup with good defensive skills around that. Assuming we get at least most of the rotation we expect to, a consistent team BA in the .280-290 range with decent enough power, speed, hustle and patience to take a walk (all from top to bottom) would be better than having a couple guys just hitting for average, a couple guys who are just patient, a couple guys who really just run fast, a couple guys primarily hitting HRs, a couple DH’s, a couple defensive specialists and then adding one bat.
————————————————————
If only half of the offensive problems from last year return to normal, the offense will be fine.
Don’t worry, guys. The “real” captain will be back this season. All the Yankees woes will be solved.
Ok guys here is my payroll stuff:
2008 payroll was 209 million, I am not going to post the breakdown for each player because this post is going to be long as it is.
2009 payroll with Sabathia, Swisher and Marte. I have Hughes and Aceves filling the last two spots in the rotation and Gardner in CF. I had to guess on arbitration for Nady, Wang and Bruney. I also gave raises to everyone that is at the minimum salary. These raises are rough guesses I made based on amount of service time. Here it is:
Alex Rodriguez $32,000,000
Derek Jeter $21,600,000
Robinson Cano $6,000,000
Nick Swisher $5,300,000
Johnny Damon $13,000,000
Xavier Nady $8,000,000
Brett Gardner $400,000
Hideki Matsui $13,000,000
Jorge Posada $13,100,000
CC Sabathia $23,000,000
Chien-Ming Wang $6,000,000
Joba Chamberlain $425,000
Alfredo Aceves $400,000
Phil Hughes $415,000
Mariano Rivera $15,000,000
Damaso Marte $3,750,000
Brian Bruney $2,000,000
Jose Veras $475,000
Mark Melancon $390,000
Phil Coke $400,000
Dan Giese $420,000
Juan Miranda $400,000
Cody Ransom $475,000
Melky Cabrera $490,000
Jose Molina $1,000,000
Total: $167,440,000
From here you can calculate approximately what the Yankees payroll will be if they sign certain players.
If the Yankees sign Burnett, Pettitte and trade for Cameron the payroll will be ~ $203 million. Then they would have to improve the bench in some way so budget another few million for that.
My conclusion? Manny and Tex are unobtainable unless the Yankees are willing to go above $220 million.
HOLD ON THE CAMERON TRADE – WILLIE TAVERAS TO BE NON-TENDERED BY ROCKIES!!!
This is the young (26yr) CF the Yanks need and is dirt cheap at $2M. His numbers are a bit low last year because he was injured, but still stole 68 bases. This would allow the Yanks to still be able to get TEX. Share your thoughts.
mel
December 12th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
Don’t worry, guys. The “real” captain will be back this season. All the Yankees woes will be solved.
————————————————————
Yep…When Rodriguez hits again like 2007, all will be well.
Breaking News: Manny says he’s not retiring. Wants to hit 700 HRs before he comsiders it. He’s letting his agent worry about the contract and he’s just worrying about staying in shape for the season. He knows he’ll be playing come March because “I believe I’ve shown I can play.”
oops- forgot the
before submitting.
GB7 – Agreed on the offense. Last year was an awful year for more guys than usual, and that’s not even counting the injuries. As long as they have average performances and average injuries from top to bottom, they’ll be better than last year’s result.
Spectacular would be nice of course, but even just average would be a big step forward.
GB7,
lol. Did we get our wires crossed? I was talking about the magic power of Posada.
I’m not a big believer in the Odd Year Phenomenon. But I’ll be cheering for it.
“This is the young (26yr) CF the Yanks need and is dirt cheap at $2M. His numbers are a bit low last year because he was injured, but still stole 68 bases. This would allow the Yanks to still be able to get TEX. Share your thoughts.”
I think, in fact I know that Willy Taveras is not a good baseball player and isn’t worth close to 2M.
ET2012
December 12th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
HOLD ON THE CAMERON TRADE – WILLIE TAVERAS TO BE NON-TENDERED BY ROCKIES!!!
This is the young (26yr) CF the Yanks need and is dirt cheap at $2M. His numbers are a bit low last year because he was injured, but still stole 68 bases. This would allow the Yanks to still be able to get TEX. Share your thoughts.
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He has 558 career hits….207 are infield hits. Hit all of those hits and steals, he still doesn’t score any runs (295) and absolutely doesn’t drive any in. He also doesn’t walk.
I think this Cameron deal is pretty useless as far as offensive or defensive upgrades go. Its just blowing money on someone whos not worth it so Im hoping we save the 10 mill to play with elsewhere. But lets say they do get him.
We were at 209mill in 08 and took around 79.25mill off the books. We have added for 09
+1.75 Marte
+5.3 Swisher
+23 CC
+16 Burnett
+10 Andy
+10 Cameron
-1 Rasner
-4 Igawa (Doubtful this gets included in the Cameron deal but we can hypothetically count it for now)
= 190.8 before contract Arb (did I miss anything here?)
That is well over the 180mill song Cashman tried to sell the media on. So we can all forget about that. They are not arbitrarily capping payroll at 180.
Now what does the lineup look like? Considering we have a full team after Burnett + Andy sign and the Cameron trade.
l Damon LF
r Jeter SS
r Arod 3B
l Matsui DH
s Posada C
r Nady RF
l Cano 2B
r Cameron CF
s Swisher 1B
Matsui is not enough protection for Arod in my opinion. On top of that hes constantly missing games due to injury. Your setting up Arod to have a terrible season numbers wise while everyone is expecting him to have an MVP year. I think the Yankees care about that. Not just because they want a strong lineup to win with. Arod is their media cash cow. They want people to want to watch him. They will have to set him up with real protection so he can put on a show year to year. That means we are getting an offensive addition still. But we have a full team already so someone has to go. Here is what I think might happen.
Nady traded and Tex signed, -3.35 + 22 (worst case) = 209.45mill:
l Damon LF
r Jeter SS
s Tex 1B
r Arod 3B
l Matsui DH
s Posada C
r Cameron CF
l Cano 2B
s Swisher RF
Matsui traded, Manny signed -13 + 25 = 202.8mill:
l Damon LF
r Jeter SS
r Arod 3B
r Manny DH
s Posada C
r Cameron CF
l Cano 2B
r Nady RF
s Swisher 1B
Damon traded for a good position playing prospect and parts -13 + 22-25 = 199.8mill – 202.8mill
r Jeter SS
l Cano 2B
s Tex 1B
r Arod 3B
l Matsui DH
s Posada C
r Cameron CF
s Swisher RF
r Nady LF
r Jeter SS
l Cano 2B
r Arod 3B
r Manny LF
l Matsui DH
s Posada C
r Cameron CF
s Swisher 1B
r Nady RF
Either marginally over, at, or under last years payroll even after arb with a big name bat signing. This really has to happen I think. And I like losing Damon the most because we could use a strong infield prospect if there are any to be had. I also think in any of the lineups I listed you dont need Cameron at all. We should be saving our money and fielding Gardner/Melky. I just have a feeling Cameron has more to do with moving Melky because of Cano then anything else. They dont want to banish the kid to the minors but they also might have decided the Cano/Melky tandem has to be broken up.
AROD is $33M/yr (You used $32M)
Nady is now $5M now but will get arbitration (You used $8M)
Bruney is $725K now but will get arbitration (You used $2M)
Wang is $4M now but will get arbitration (You used $6M)
mel
December 12th, 2008 at 12:48 pm
GB7,
lol. Did we get our wires crossed? I was talking about the magic power of Posada.
I’m not a big believer in the Odd Year Phenomenon. But I’ll be cheering for it.
————————————————————
Oh….ok. never mind.
HaHa,
Pete’s college number crunchers vs. John Kruck
“Even if the Yankees get AJ Burnett, they still need to add offense to compete with the Red Sox”.
Cash should forget about Cameron at $10m. If you look at it Tex would only be $10-12m more then him. I really don’t get why the Yanks are so against getting Tex. The money is only a little bit more on the payroll for this year and then next year Damon and Matsui($26m) come off the payroll and his contract can slide into there. They can even back load some of the money to the last 6 years so that they wouldn’t have to pay that much money on the contract next year. They passed on Beltran now Tex….They are going to have to replace Abreu, Giambi, Matsui and Damon some how and Nady, Swisher and Cameron will not get it done.
If Taveras is such a lousy player, then why were the Yankees talking to Rockies about a trade earlier in the year? His batting avg. is about the same as Cameron; he just does not hit the Hrs.
The hrs. can be had by signing Tex or Manny.
GB7,
And I was being sarcastic! Sorry. That was way over your head. I should’ve known that you were busy wiping up your Coke.
At first glance of his stats & salary, it appears Taveras may be a better option than Cameron in some ways. I haven’t watched him play much though. Low OBP & slug pct are negatives, zero power, but his career BA is still in the 280’s and he’s a base stealer. Cameron’s career BA is only 250, his strikeouts are high, he costs 5 times as much, but he’s got some pop, some glove and he’s a one year deal.
Other options … hmmm …
“AROD is $33M/yr (You used $32M)
Nady is now $5M now but will get arbitration (You used $8M)
Bruney is $725K now but will get arbitration (You used $2M)
Wang is $4M now but will get arbitration (You used $6M)”
Nady, Bruney and Wang are all arb eligible and they will all get raises. Also I don’t know where you are getting $33M from, A-rod makes $32M in 2009.
“Maybe I’m missing the math:
payroll Total $209,081,577-$89,000,000 = $120,081,577.00
Add CC $23mil
AJ $17mill
Cameron $10mil
Pettite $10mil
sheets $13-15mil
from above add about $60mil thats $180mil
there would be room for Tex/Manny..”
You need to add Marte, Nady, Swisher.
Also, you need to add for the raises for every one, contractual or arbitration.
All these add up to significant amount.
Other options BESIDES signing Manny, that is ……
RayVTNC,
Yeh I said before arb. We dont know what they will be yet so I didnt count it. I didnt think to look for an Arod bounce this year but Im also not taking into account how they may backload CC’s contract. So it probably evens out.
GB7,
And I was being sarcastic! Sorry. That was way over your head. I should’ve known that you were busy wiping up your Coke.
————————————————————
LMAO. I was being a smart azz. Only I was typing in my best Emily LaTella voice,
The yankees can trade Damon for minor league prospects and insert Taveras as the lead-off hitter, who is suppossed to get on base, steal and let the heavy hitters drive him in.
The extra cash saved from Cameron ($10), and Damon ($13) could then be used to sign TEX.
Thoughts…
Tom Verducci seems to like what the Yankees are doing
:
“The Yankees would rather give a medical risk such as A.J. Burnett five guaranteed years and pay a declining Andy Pettitte $10 million to be a No. 5 starter than give the ball to Phil Hughes, who has gone from the wonder child not worth trading for Santana to a spare part. Ian Kennedy? Forgotten. Melky Cabrera? Unmentionable”
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....index.html
Found this on the Fire Brand Blog:
“Sabathia will receive a seven-year commitment at a total value of roughly $161 million, although a sizable chunk will go to charity and deferred payments.”
Has anyone heard of this? I heard it was straight cash, but I found the charity part interesting. Assumption or is there a clause?
CC
Burnett
Wang
Petitte
Joba
Rivera
Melancon
Bruney
Marte
Coke
Robertson
Aceves
*if* the pitching roster is same as above, we many not need to upgrade the offense. At least, not until July. This roster is crazy. And 754 additional bullpen options (internal) if any of these falter.
Taveras is Jose Molina with speed. Pass.
Willy Tavares kinda sucks. Kinda a lot.
First of all, Willy Taveras should be in AAA, he is not a good player at all. Not a good defender, not a good hitter. The only thing he can do is steal bases.
Secondly, Tom Verducci is a moron. Phil Hughes is a spare part? That’s why Cashman CONSTANTLY says they are not going to trade him. Hughes is still extremely valuable and will be a #1 or #2 starter.
Taveras? Can’t steal first base… If you go that route might as well stick with Gardner
Taveras < Damon.
Tom,
I didn’t click the link, but I don’t think they’re down on Hughes. I think they want to take their time with him before they totally damage him. Kennedy has rebuilt his trade value, as I don’t see a place for him with the Yankees. Melky has always been a 4th OF.
If Joba didn’t have IP issues, I could see them signing only 2 FA pitchers and rolling the dice with Hughes/Aceves. But he does so we needed to sign Andy + 2 FA.
“Hughes is still extremely valuable and will be a #1 or #2 starter.”
no. no he’s not.
he can still be good, sure. he’s not a 1 or 2, though.
I say that the Yanks pick up Taveras and trade him to the Dodgers for Kemp.
Thanks everyone on the payroll education, what about the luxury tax..I think the yanks will go to 220 mill this year, and will be shedding payroll in 09..MO
Some of you should really knock off all the Andy bashing. He gave a lot more to this team than that stiff Cano did last year who you all defend like he’s a lock All Star yet had to be “motivated” in order to play.
Andy pitches through pain and his first 1/2 last season was very good. A 4.5 ERA in the AL East isn’t something to sneeze at.
Not to mention if the offense showed up some days and weren’t white knuckling the bats, Andy would have won more games with his stuff.
I like Sheets stuff, but if we sign him instead of Andy and he hits the DL and needs elbow surgery (a big possibility) you will all be ripping Cashman for signing him.
Taveras does not help the offense…
lol. And the funny part is, lots of teams would want our “spare” parts. Matsui, Hughes, Ian, and Melky.
Give me a break. We’ll be busting at the seams with pitching, soon. We’ll have real options, unlike previous years when we had to depend on Clippard, DeSalvo, and Chase Wright.
Oh, where are thou, Aaron Small?
GB,
that’s an awesome idea. lol
Gardner will be better then Willie Taveres.
Taveras isn’t any better than Gardner..
“no. no he’s not.
he can still be good, sure. he’s not a 1 or 2, though.”
Yes. Yes he is.
You see what I did there?
Seriously though TurnTwo, most scouts agree that Hughes has the stuff to be a #2 or #1 starter in the majors.
vinny-b (bring back Petitte and sign Sheets at 2 yrs)
we hit that at the same time..:)
Jana Mussina Helped With CC Signing
By Frank Russo
December 11th, 2008
A source with close knowledge of the situation has informed us that the Yankees got some tremendous help with their negotiations with CC Sabathia from the wife of a former Yankee.
Apparently, Jana Mussina, wife of recently retired Yankees hurler Mike Mussina, contacted Sabathia’s wife, Amber, and had what was deemed, “A very reassuring conversation about what it was like to play in New York.” She was so reassuring and told Amber how great it was to be part of the Yankee family. our source told us.” She went over all the different options that her and her family would have living either in or just outside of the city.”
Jana Mussina of course, knows first hand about what it’s like to have reservations in regards to being the wife of a Yankees players, as she basically had the same fears as Amber Sabathia did when her husband first signed on before the 2001 campaign.
Ed – CC chose the Yanks! where’s those people that thought he wasn’t coming?
December 12th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
GB,
that’s an awesome idea. lol
It should at least please Bru and Dave. They haven’t whined for Kemp in an hour. And, it’s creative.
btw I’ll be sure to thank her in Jan at the meet and greet.
**Burnett decides**
With offers in hand from the Yankees and Atlanta Braves, free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett is “in decision-making mode,” agent Darek Braunecker wrote in an e-mail.
“Can’t tell you when he will pull the trigger,” Braunecker added.
http://www.nj.com/yankees/inde.....nderi.html
One scout has already said Hughes could be their #2. Right now.
Tim:
lol. noticed.
Willy Taveras is horrible.
Willy Taveras? Are people serious. He’s an awful baseball player.
2 major problems with Taveras. He can’t hit and he can’t field.
Last season Taveras was 12 runs worse than a league average CF at the plate, making him one of the single worst offensive regulars in baseball.
On top of that he was 10 runs worse than a league average defensive CF.
That makes Taveras in total 22 runs worse than an average CF.
Taveras is basically Brett Gardner at the plate but with none of the plus defense that Gardner brings.
He’s a replacement player. He’s awful.
GB,
well speak of the madget, look who came on. ^
…the one about CB’s post. lol
Is “decision-making mode” the final step of the “process”?
I’m begining to think that the Yankees should consider passing on Mike Cameron at $10 million, and instead try to sign Tex for 1st Base. The money is there to do it, and Tex would serve to offset the loss in production from CF, from Cameron to a Gardner/Swisher/Melky trio. The team figures to have 5-6 years of young guns inside the rotation on the cheap (Hughes/Joba), and a CF making minimum at some point in 2010 (AJAX). If Gardner develops as a decent CF’er, then Ajax would move to a corner spot. To develop players in the line-up, their offensive struggles will need to be offset by increased production elsewhere. At 28, Tex is going to mash for years to come.
I can’t believe people in here are upset over possibly getting Cameron who is a given and effective and are instead advocating Taveras who is lousy and being dumped by his team yet is low salaried player.
If Taveras can’t make it in Colorado, CF at Yankee Stadium isn’t the next step.
“With offers in hand from the Yankees and Atlanta Braves, free-agent right-hander A.J. Burnett is “in decision-making mode,”
I hope he says ‘yes’. Cuz, if not it will be 4 years of Lowe. And not Sheets (unfortunately)
11: 10 a.m.: “A-Rod would probably strangle Cabrera with his scarf.”
LOL!
coming?
December 12th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
GB,
well speak of the madget, look who came on. ^
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Ah….he’s just mad and jealous that he didn’t think of it first.
“most scouts agree that Hughes has the stuff to be a #2 or #1 starter in the majors.”
i would love to see where this analysis would be, because this just isnt true… and it doesnt count from scouting reports 2 or 3 years ago.
maybe some scouts might think he has the potential of a ceiling as a 2, if everything broke perfectly in his career, and he reached his highest potential with no more setbacks.
but a majority of scouts would not say this at all.
again, not to say he still cant be a very good pitcher. but he’s not a 1 or a 2. joba’s a #1. Hughes cant touch Joba’s potential.
I wonder what will happen with Andy it has been reported that some in the organization want to turn the page especially after the HGH situation.
no comments on Jana Mussina helping us get CC?
Is “decision-making mode” the final step of the “process”?
Nope!
After he makes a decision his agent has to negotiate the particulars with the Yankees. Then Burnett has to do a physical, then he signs.
the yankees won’t be over much on the luxury tax because they are smart.
There is, however, an exception to the “before expenses” rule: Teams can deduct “stadium operations costs” before calculating their revenue for sharing purposes. And, as has recently been revealed, teams are allowed to count stadium debt as a “stadium operations cost.” This means that any money spent on stadiums is effectively a deduction against revenue-sharing, allowing the team owner – in this case, Steinbrenner – to reduce his revenue-sharing check by millions of dollars a year, even if his actual revenue stays exactly the same.
“Is “decision-making mode” the final step of the “process”?”
Nope, decision-making mode is when you see if you can get the Yankees to offer you even more of a ridiculous contract.
no comments on Jana Mussina helping us get CC?
I thought it was very interesting. I wonder if Cashman asked Moose to ask his wife or if she just did it on her own?
Turntwo- Many scouts at the moment have Phil as a solid 3 with a 2 ceiling. He is obviously not the Ace he was touted as a few years back but still could develop into a fine mid rotation pitcher, with Joba, Wang, CC and now Burnett for the next 4-5 years he doesn’t need to be the guy.
Ed – CC chose the Yanks! where’s those people that thought he wasn’t coming?
December 12th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
************************
I was one who said he wasn’t coming. I said this back when the offer was still 6/140 with no opt out and it was still uncertain if the west coast teams would jump in on CC. I said if they did jump in at 120 or so he would stay on the coast. They didn’t and the Yanks sweetened the deal thus CC is here now. I am happy about that fact although I stand by my argument he has yet to show he is a playoff pitcher. Maybe that will change if his IP can be kept around 200 instead of 250 for the regular season. Time will tell.
funny. Despite the big NY football games this wknd, it seem more like baseball season, then football.
the abovewritten and maintained by Neil deMause. Copyright © Neil deMause, all rights reserved.
**synonyms for process:**
action
unfold
working
routine
movement
The GMs seriously need to learn a new word.
TurnTwo, believe what you like but scouts in the AFL saw his stuff and still think he can be a #1 or #2. Also, why are scouting reports from 2 years ago invalid? He has the same stuff now that he has back then and he’s only 22!
Oh, for Christ’s sake. Hughes is just 22 years old. How about letting him learn, firstr. He should just now be graduating from college.
didn’t Burnett state (during the season) he wished to play in NY ?
not that it matters.
“no comments on Jana Mussina helping us get CC?”
She’s one Moose that comes through in the clutch ?
“i would love to see where this analysis would be, because this just isnt true… and it doesnt count from scouting reports 2 or 3 years ago.”
Ok. I’ve posted this before but…
Jason Stark speaking with scouts after the Arizona Fall Leauge this year got glowing reports about hughes. This is one he quotes:
“Yankees pitcher Phil Hughes (1-0, 3.60 ERA, 28 K’s, 25 IP): “Saw him two games, and he cruised. He dominated, and he should. His curveball was very sharp. All those people who think he’s lost his luster — no way. Hell, he’d be our No. 2 starter right now.”
“Hell he’d be out No.2 starter right now.” That says quite a bit.
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn.....type=story
Vito,
huh? first of all, it’s just a handle and it doesn’t refer to you. It refers to everyone that said CC isn’t coming. I didn’t even bother reading your essay.
G. Love:
Amen..
mel
Most players who make 20+ million are going to donate a big chunk to charity. I think the Yankees still pay in cash and that was just implying CC was planning on being belevolent with his new found fortune.
The final step of the “process” involves tickertape.
Well whether or not she was asked she gave a good sell job.
Patrick,
Thanks. I meant no more exchange of offers, etc. But, yeah, he still has to do the following:
1. Decide
2. Agree in principle
3. Finalize contract
4. Physical
5. Press conference
He’s further along the “process” than Teixeira who said he wants to know where he’s going by Christmas. How badly does Boston want him? I hope that Moreno has the patience and budget to get him. I didn’t want the Angels to have him, but that’s the lesser of the AL evils.
I think the key thing with Hughes to remember now is he is “projected” to be.
That means, he’s not that yet and has a ways to go to get there which any of us who watched him pitch last year can tell you.
Hughes needs to start in AAA, pitch healthy, refine his pitches and he will make it here. Everyone needs to be patient with him. He was rushed and none of us should want to see him in the rotation next year unless it’s an emergency or a late season call up type thing.
“Decision making-mode” for aj burtnett is blasting heavy-metal music in his room.
Ed,
Was just saying I was one of them – that’s all.
cb if that is true, why are the Yankees looking to fill all 5 spots. Or do they plan to move Joba? (I hope Mike F didn’t hear that).
We should stick with Gardner in CF, trade Matsuil to Seattle, and use the money about to be spent on Cameron to get TEX. Cameron ($10M) + Matsui ($13M)= $23M with that amount of tamales, Yankees could easily get TEX or Manny.
The only way a trade for Cameron makes sense, is if Igawa ($4M) goes in the deal.
Thoughts…
“Many scouts at the moment have Phil as a solid 3 with a 2 ceiling. He is obviously not the Ace he was touted as a few years back but still could develop into a fine mid rotation pitcher”
and i dont disagree with the assessment. i never said he stunk.
he’s got value, and if he were to be traded, he could be a centerpiece still and get something good in return.
my point is that while he’s not a spare part like Verducci was insinuating, he’s also not a #1 or #2 either.
About Phil Hughes? JUST SAY YES!
Everythgin I hear (except from blog pessimists) says htat Hughes could be a #1 or #2 on a good team in a few years but not yet. Cripes the guy’s only what … 21? 22 years old? If he could be someone’s #2 now, that team’s just not a contender. On the Yanks (in a rotation with CC Joba, Wang and others) he could be a #2 or a #3 or even a #4 depending on how each guy’s doing in a few years. Hey, anyone could get hurt, become a FA or even opt out of their contract. If Hughes reaches his potential of being a #1 or #2 caliber pitcher but he’s our #4 at that time, that DOES NOT NECESSARILY mean he’s only a #4 caliber pitcher. It means we have a devastating rotation if a front-of-the rotation guys is only the 4th best starter in our rotation. I’m all for that if we can have it in a few years, and for a few years.
I want AJ, but have a bad feeling. For all the talk of wanting to be a Yankee (see today’s Post)and what are probably comparable offers and his desire not to hit or run, you’d think it would be a slam dunk. Maybe I’m just being impatient…..He’s a big piece of the puzzle too.
yeah, CB, but then you leave out the quotes from the other AFL scouts who said they have no clue what people see in Hughes because his stuff is flat (paraphrasing).
one scout in one report in the AFL does not a majority make.
Okay, maybe we were wrong. Maybe the Arizona scout was an International League scout.
No one is taking Matsui in a trade unless we pay his salary. He has had two knee surgeries in the last year. Especially a team like Seattle that is in rebuilding mode.
bru
Revenue sharing contribution is reduced because of stadium costs and debt reduction. They pay luxury tax no matter what.
speaking of having a press conference, when is the CC’s deal is going to be finalized and have a conference? K-Rod is going to have his next week, and the Yanks should steal their thunder again!!
“Hughes needs to start in AAA, pitch healthy, refine his pitches and he will make it here. Everyone needs to be patient with him. He was rushed and none of us should want to see him in the rotation next year unless it’s an emergency or a late season call up type thing.”
agreed, G. Love, especially the last part. stick him in Scranton, and just let him stay there all year.
develop his stuff, work on his location, and hope he can stay healthy.
I see Phil Hughes as the face of the franchise. Seriously. Because he was rushed up to pitch doesn’t mean that guy didn’t more than earn the honor of being the Yankees number one draft pick. We have all seen why Highes was drafted by the Yankees. We have all seen his maturity and ability. If he needs an additional year in the majors (don’t forget he has lost the equivalent of two years of training due to injuries) so be it. Phil Hughes didn’t ask to be rushed up to the majors. When he is finally camera ready, he will dominate. He’ll do it in a quiet understated and mature way – the guy isn’t a showboater – but he will do it.
Unlike Ian Kennedy, everything about Hughes screams Yankee to me.
If Burnett sign with NYY will be running four pitchers out there that on most teams would all be #1 pitchers, with only Chamberlain having some limitations. If Pettitte signs, and then retires at the end of the year, in 2010, NYY will run out 3 #1s, and at worse 2 #2s. That’s talent. Three from the system, and no team can make that claim.
“I want AJ, but have a bad feeling. For all the talk of wanting to be a Yankee (see today’s Post)and what are probably comparable offers and his desire not to hit or run, you’d think it would be a slam dunk. Maybe I’m just being impatient…..He’s a big piece of the puzzle too.”
Ed, I hear ya. While I don’t necessarily have the bad feeling part of it, I think I have the impatience part of it because I can feel myself getting really ticked off at the lack of an announcement. I go back to the same thing – if he really wanted to be a Yankee so badly, what the heck is the holdup?
Of course, all will be forgiven as soon as the announcement is made! That he is going to play for the Yankees, of course!
“if that is true, why are the Yankees looking to fill all 5 spots. ”
Jennifer,
It’s really an issue of risk. The gap between a young players talent and his performance can be significant. Experience is what closes that gap.
But the biggest problem for the yankees is that they are constantly in a win now mode. So while other teams call up young pitchers and allow them to take their lumps the yankees just can’t afford to do that as much.
Matt Cain is considered to be one of the most talented young pitchers in the game. A guy who is going to be a #1/#2 starter. Take a look at his record the past two years with the Giants.
The other thing with Hughes is that he hasn’t pitched on a regular 5 day basis in over two years. Long time.
They need to be cautious with him now. They don’t want to just throw him back out there.
That’s why they are looking for guys to fill in the rotation for this year.
Give Hughes a year in AAA and he’ll most likely be ready to contribute positively
EdWhitson- AJ will sign hes just mulling stuff over, we have everything going for us. NY is closer to his Maryland home, we are in the AL East the division he knows best, he wouldn’t have to hit here and he has a lot of people on the Yanks selling him on coming here.
CB
he’d be number 4….CC, Wang, Joba…
No one responded to my 12:15 post.
How do we plug the last 8 holes?
SP-Burnett
SP-Pettitte
RP-Albaladejo (still doesn’t have an ERA in 10 appearances)
RP-Aceves (long relief)
* Melancon to possibly replace Veras
OF-Cameron
OF-Gardner
IF-Ransom (?)
IF-free agent or trade
Tim Clougher
December 12th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
CB
he’d be number 4….CC, Wang, Joba…
————————————————————
Only because of the order in the rotation…not in talent.
That was nice of Mrs. Mussina to call up Mrs. Sabathia
People get too wrapped up in labeling #1, 2, 3, 4,and 5. In three years, if they stay healthy and affective, you won’t be able to decide what order to put them in.
Trisha — Arod, CC and Joba are the faces of the franchise as Jeter, Mo and Posada go their merry ways.
As for your and others faith in him that he’ll dominate, that’s awesome but it’s not going to help temper expectations on him that need to be tempered.
Pitching well in the AFL or the Puerto Rican league (like IPK did) is not pitching well against the Red Sox.
He’s in development now where belongs and the best thing Yankee fans can do for him is put him out of their minds and let him develop in peace.
The hype and hyperbole about what he can be needs to end. The kid just needs to use his gifts and learn how to pitch without anyone suggesting he’s the “franchise” anymore.
Everyone needs to stop hyping the prospects.
Let them come up like Wang and Cano did with uncertain expectations and surprise us and earn our respect.
I think the internet, while awesome, has only helped to create this passion for minor leaguers that in many ways can hurt their development when the media and fans are expecting them to be something they haven’t achieved yet.
Phil needs to pitch in Scranton for a full season with no injuries and learn how to better harness he’s stuff. He’s not major league ready, except in the minds of fans who want him to be major league ready.
***effective***
Hughes, unlike Kennedy, isn’t afraid to throw strikes. When I heard that he told Posada to, “Punch me in the face the next time I walk a guy after going 0-2”, after he walked Lofton in his near no hitter, I became even more excited about him.
ill take a flier on cabrera he has a great arm who noes we could probably fix him
“but then you leave out the quotes from the other AFL scouts who said they have no clue what people see in Hughes because his stuff is flat (paraphrasing).
one scout in one report in the AFL does not a majority make.”
Wasn’t trying to say it was a majority. I don’t know how one would create a systematic assessment of what scouts think of him right now.
You seemed to be strongly suggesting that he’s not seen as anything more than a mid rotation guy.
Which is also just not true in an absolute sense and equally diminishes all of the positive reports.
And you yourself showed absolutely positively no evidence at all that hughes is considered by some majority to not be a #1 or #2.
Where is your evidence? You didn’t quote or cite even one source. So to say that “one scout in one report in the AFL does not a majority make” is sort of hollow isn’t it?
Kevin Goldstein seems to be the source from which most of the bad impressions about Hughes in the AFL have been filtered through. Jim Callis as well – who has never liked Hughes much but is always falling over himself to explain away the problems of Clay Buchholz – a pitcher who has one of the flatest fast balls this side of Kyle Farnsworth.
On the flip side there were a number of positive assessments.
Someone cited it before I think in this thread – in September Keith Law was asked if he’d trade Hughes for Votto and he said now. Votto had an .874 OPS as a rookie.
The reports the yankee’s beat reporters got about Hughes in the AFL were very positive – not just Pete but other guys as well.
Ultimately I’m not sure there is a consensus on Hughes because his performance has varied a great deal. In turn depending on when people have seen him throw opinions are varying.
We’ll see.
“33 Brian Bruney R/R 6-3 235 02/17/82
62 Joba Chamberlain R/R 6-2 230 09/23/85
48 Phil Coke L/L 6-1 210 07/19/82
34 Damaso Marte L/L 6-2 215 02/14/75
CC Sabathia
42 Mariano Rivera R/R 6-2 185 11/29/69
41 Jose Veras R/R 6-5 235 10/20/80
40 Chien-Ming Wang R/R 6-3 225 03/31/80″
Assuming you take 12 pitchers here are the remaining 4 IMO:
Mark Melancon
AJ Burnett
Andy Pettitte/Ben Sheets
Albaladejo/Robertson(I couldn’t choose)
Daniel Cabrera isn’t coming here to get fixed. There’s about a dozen rotations in MLB he would make right now.
Tim Clougher
December 12th, 2008 at 1:37 pm
“CB
he’d be number 4….CC, Wang, Joba…”
I’m pretty sure that Joba is the #5 guy because of his innings limit. He’s the guy that needs to be skipped on off days. Andy ought to be the #4 because, as others have said, there is too much risk in counting on AJ and Sheets. The rotation needs a 200 inning horse even if he isn’t the dominant Andy that we all remember. I think the choice could have been AJ or sheets then Lowe or Andy. In reality I think Cashman has penciled in Andy the whole time though.
Good pick up by the Pillies. Ibanez has kind of flown under the radar playing in KC then Seattle, but he is a good ball player. He went on a streak last year when it seemed that anything thrown near the plate was hit hard. He was an electric player on a monumentally bad team and kept it going while the season fell apart. That makes a good guy to have down the stretch.
CB, you sum it up pretty well. Hughes has the potential to be a #1 or #2 starter but its possible he doesn’t reach that potential. You can’t just flat out say “he’s not a #1 starter.” That is still up in the air.
Burnett for 5 years is a bad idea. We need to sign Pettitte for 1-2 years and Sheets for 2. We don’t want to clog the rotation up before Hughes has a chance to be slotted in. Burnett for 5 years will do that. We’re obviously going to have CMW for his whole career, so we can chisel him into the rotation for a while.
I don’t see the point in signing AJ. We have so many other options out there for cheap and rising stars in our organization. Plus, next season’s free agent class is bound to have someone like AJ on the market, without the injury concern. Why not wait?
Tim – yep, there’s a good chance of that … and we’d have a great rotation if it turned out that way.
but some people will still find a way to complain that 2 or 3 guys in the rotation aren’t ‘aces’.
Unless someone clones a complete rotation of Nolan Ryan, the Pedro of ‘97-’03, the mid-90’s Maddux, the Big Unit of ‘99-’02, and the mid-60’s Koufax and all the clones never age (Ryan didn’t anyways) these people with always be insatiable critics.
Al,
Thanks for that. Sounds like we’re pretty set if we get AJ & one more short-term starter. When you’ve got kids pushing guys like Veras out, you’ve got depth.
I can’t believe CMW will be 29. Where have the years gone?
2010 Free Agents (* means they have an option)
Starting Pitchers
Brandon Backe HOU
Miguel Batista SEA
Josh Beckett * BOS
Erik Bedard SEA
Chris Capuano MIL
Jose Contreras CWS
Doug Davis ARZ
Justin Duchscherer OAK
Adam Eaton * PHI
Kelvim Escobar LAA
Rich Harden CHC
Tim Hudson * ATL
John Lackey LAA
Cliff Lee * CLE
Jason Marquis CHC
Mark Mulder STL
Brett Myers PHI
Vicente Padilla * TEX
Brad Penny LAD
Joel Pineiro STL
Jason Schmidt LAD
John Smoltz ATL
Claudio Vargas NYM
Jarrod Washburn SEA
Brandon Webb * ARZ
Todd Wellemeyer STL
Looking over the list of available utility infielders, other than Wigginton, available that would consider playing less than full time, the best possible solution may be Alex Cora.
It would be nice to get a lefty power bat for the bench-somebody who can hit RHP well. Both Swisher and Nady hit LHP better than RHP.
G. Love – I guess I am giving my opinion that Phil Hughes is going to be the face of the franchise based on what I have seen and purely my instinct about how he will develop. I am not someone who reads someone else’s hype and runs with it. Rather au contraire. I’ve been known to make my own assessments and judgments and share my feelings, but it will just about never be based on something I’ve read from someone else.
I believe Hughes will someday be the face of the franchise. Time will tell whether I am right or wrong. In the meantime, I don’t get overly anxious about letting things develop at their own pace.
trisha,
You don’t owe anyone an explanation. We all know that we’re just giving opinions and none of us (except CB & SJ44) know what we’re talking about. We just throw things onto the proverbial wall and see what sticks.
Even Pete makes up stuff. Just kidding!
I am sometimes a day late and a dollar short here so if someone already posted this link, I apologize.
http://newyork.yankees.mlb.com.....p;c_id=nyy
“And you yourself showed absolutely positively no evidence at all that hughes is considered by some majority to not be a #1 or #2.”
ive watched the games. he pitches afraid to me more than he shows command over his stuff and the strike zone.
when the yankees farm system was barren of top of the rotation guys, maybe he looked like a #1 or 2 compared to everyone else in the system.
but then you look at what real top of the rotation prospects look like, like the potential ceilings of Joba and Betances and Brackman, big arms who throw gas in the upper 90’s, have great secondary stuff, and you compare Hughes to them, and he’s just not on the same plain.
again, you mention KLaw and BP, and i dont disagree.
but just because he’s got more value in KLaw’s eye’s than Joey Votto doesnt mean he’s a number 1 or 2.
here’s a scout from a Jim Callis report:
“I just don’t see how he dominated the lower levels of the minors so thoroughly,” a second scout said. “He’s not overpowering at all. But he has a solid fastball and the curveball is OK. I don’t see what all the fuss was about, but he’s probably still a No. 3.”
and another scout, familiar with Hughes, in a Joel Sherman article:
“According to scouts Hughes’ delivery, command and array of stuff have not been impressive. He started the Rising Stars game and permitted four runs (one earned) in three innings, allowing two homers and walking two. One scout who has seen multiple starts in the AFL by Hughes offered this report from the Rising Stars game: “His velocity was fine. He threw some at 93-94 (mph), but mostly he was in the low 90s, but the problem was that they were straight. He gave up two bombs and even the outs were mostly hard hit. He couldn’t command his fastball to the corners at all. Only about half his curves were good and only about one in four were in the strike zone. He is working to add that changeup (to use against lefties), threw three and all were up and out of the zone. “I think the problem is that his elbow is too low so he is not commanding because he is not throwing downhill. His command stinks because his motion stinks. For example, his curve has good rotation and break, but I think because of that delivery it breaks early and so hitters pick it up.”
“Al,
Thanks for that. Sounds like we’re pretty set if we get AJ & one more short-term starter. When you’ve got kids pushing guys like Veras out, you’ve got depth.
I can’t believe CMW will be 29. Where have the years gone?”
29? Gee Whiz! Yeah guys like Melancon need to get a shot next year. He has been a stud closer his entire pro-career no doubt could be part of a solid bridge to Mariano.
“2010 Free Agents (* means they have an option)”
This is one of the big reasons why they are going after a second free agent starter this off season.
Take a look at that list of free agent pitchers next year. People expects Lackey to sign an extension – it’s been reported in LA that he already is planning on signing an extension before spring training – or at least that’s his goal.
Every other attractive pitcher has an option that will be picked up.
That leaves Rich Harden – if you think AJ is injury prone forget about Harden.
Burnett and Lowe and even perhaps Sheets may be better than any starter who hits the market next winter.
A big reason why they don’t want to put Hughes in the rotation this year is that they don’t seem too eager to try breaking two young arms into the rotation at the same time, especially when one has a low innings cap like Joba does.
2009 they’ll try to slot in Joba. 2010 Hughes. But unless they have 4 other starters going in to 2010 they’ll have to take a gamble on a rookie or go trolling out in the free agent market again. It’s just too expensive to trade for pitching.
Not a lot of choice in free agents. And right now there is no other young pitcher you can count on to even theoretically slot into the 2010 rotation other than Hughes. Can’t count on Kennedy. And McCallister, Brackman, Betances aren’t going to be ready by 2010.
The yankees are lucky in that during an off season in which they are desperate for pitching – there is a lot of pitching talent on the market.
They are taking advantage of the supply this off season to brace for the lack of supply next off season.
Myrtlebeachfan- No doubt the 2 top guys on that list will be resigned by their clubs. Webb and Lackey are gonna be locked up long-term and IMO Rich Harden is even more ofa n injury risk than AJ.
“Webb and Lackey are gonna be locked up long-term”
i wouldnt be too sure about that. the Dbacks are strapped for cash as it is, so to lock up Webb long term might not be as feasible as it looks a year or two ago.
Webb would make ridiculous money on the open market if he ever made it there.
“but then you look at what real top of the rotation prospects look like, like the potential ceilings of Joba and Betances and Brackman, big arms who throw gas in the upper 90’s, have great secondary stuff,”
Does Jake Peavy fit the description you’ve written above?
Not at all.
And based on your numerous posts you feel that Peavy is a not doubt top of the rotation guy.
Peavy’s average fastball velocity last season was 92.1. In 2005 when Peavy was 24 it was 91.5 For his career it’s been 92.1.
Hughes average fastball velocity in the pros has been 91.
I’ve seen those reports from Sherman and Callis from the AFL. As I said before opinions on Hughes vary wildly largely because his performance has varied wildly.
What both those Sherman and Callis pieces have in common is that they are referring to games the scouts saw in which Hughes had a split nail and couldn’t grip his curve ball. He was rested for 10 days or so and afterwards finished the AFL strongly.
If you took out that one awful start he had with the split nail in which he only lasted 2 innings his era for the AFL was 0.9. That’s an ERA+ of 667 as the average ERA in the AFL this season was 6.0.
What I was addressing was your suggstion that you’ve discerned what the majority of people think about him.
I don’t know if there is any majority consensus on him because his performance has varied largely due to injury.
Duchsherer is an interesting FA for 2010.
Boston Dave:
Funny out of the list I was thinking the same thing.
I am no scout but I saw Hughes pitch in the International league Championship game in Sept. He was overpowering. 12 k’s in 5in while being squeezed by the home plate ump. The first time I saw him with glasses, he had a determined focused look on his face. He was awesome! I think you’ll see a different Hughes this year. By the way Igawa pitched the night before. It looked like I could hit it.
Why spend 91 million dollars on AJ Burnett for 5 years when you can have almost the same type of pitched in sheets for a possible 2 years and 27 million with an option and incentives. AJ will cost over 18 million per season while sheets would cost a mere 13.5. On the same not, the yanks are taking the smart route and trying to get pettitte for 1 year and 10 million over about the same type of pitcher (if he moved to the AL) for 4 year and 60 million. This is a 15 million per season salary for lowe and 10 mil per for pettitte. Now, the difference in AJ and sheets salary is around 4.5 million and the difference between pettitte and lowe is 5 million per season – Thats 9.5 million added back to the leftover payroll if we sign Sheets and pettitte over Burnett and Lowe. Considering sheets has done far better than burnett over the last season and pettitte and lowe should be comparable in the AL east, that is alot of change.
Now, lets see what the yanks can do with that extra 9.5 million. After this cameron trade which helps lineup speed and outfield defense but further hurts team obp and pitches taken, we need someone with a great eye. Additionally the cameron deal still leaves us without a complimentary third or fourth hitter to wherever arod hits. So ideally we need a guy with power and high obp. Since arod is a righty, it is the obvious choice to pick a lefty bat who can bat fourth with solid power and a great eye. Further, the best place for them to take on the field would be to replace swisher – swisher can serve as the backup OF, Backup first baseman, backup DH and pinch hitter. He can also platoon with nady in right field if nady continues to struggle in NY. Swisher is a switch hitter (try saying that three times fast) and nady is a righty so technically they would make a good platoon. And although they are similar types of players, we cant bank on a comeback year from swisher and bank on nady over-performing from last year along with all the other ifs surrounding the team like posada, matsui and cano.
Now, who do we pick up to bat fourth thats a lefty and can play first base decently with tremendous power and high obp. Its only the least talked about player in the free agent market adam dunn. Arizona declined to give arbitration to dunn which would have given him around 14 million in salary in 2009. Since i have not heard a single rumor about a possible offer and have no idea where dunn is valued i am going to start with a value less than 14 million. It is possible Dunn is looking for a short-term deal due to the complete lack of interest in him this off season and i would go with 3 years with a possible option. The yanks could offer 12 mil over 3 years to dunn and he may very well accept it. Dunn just turned 29 years old so a 3 year deal would take him to the age of 32 – Additionally, a three year deal likely wouldnt block the way for montero if he can no longer catch and is forced to move to first base or if someone like jeter had to move to first base in a couple of years. Dunn also has the ability to play left field making him somewhat versatile in the field in case someone needs to move over to first base.
Dunn is as conistent as they come and relying on him to have an obp in the high 380s with 40 homers and over 500 at bats is money in the bank. In Dunn’s last five seasons since 2004, he has only failed to have an obp over 380 once – always falling between 386 and 388. He has never had less than 40 homeruns in the last five seasons hitting 46, 40, 40, 40, 40. Now that is what i call consistency. Yes, he will strikeout and was fifth in the NL in strikeouts last year but he can also walk and he walks alot – he walked 122 times last year and that ranks first in the NL. He also grounded into only 7 double plays last year and has had an ops plus of 129 and 136 in the last two years. He ranked 10th last year in offense winning percentage. He is a career 247 hitter but the obp for his career is at 381 which ranks 21st among active players – jason giambi is seventh and bobby abreu is tenth thus, the stress on obp. Avg is irrelevant when the obp is that high and the homers are that high – he is also a shoe-in for over 100 rbis and on the yanks, probably good for 120.
The lineup would shape out to be: Damon – L, Jeter – R, Arod – R, Dunn- L, Posada- S, Matsui – L, Swisher/Nady – S/R, Cano – L, Cameron – R. A very solid mix of lefty, righty and switch. And where do we get the money to pay Dunn’s 12 mil next year -HOW about signing sheets and pettitte for 13.5 and 10 mil? That gives us about 12 mil left for offense and there you have it. Arod and Dunn both give us a legitimate three and four hitter and both can easily hit over 40 homers and have an obp over 380. Swisher gives us an extremely capable replacement should matsui, damon or dunn go down. Meanwhile swisher is very useful as a pinch hitter and platoon. This also gives us speed on the top and the bottom while still maintaining a better than league avg obp which cameron drops dramatically. And posada, matsui, nady/swisher and cameron could easily give us over 20 homers from the fifth, sixth, seventh and ninth spot making it a pretty intimidating lineup. Im just saying this is a perfect fit – cashman has to get it done.