Today in The Journal News
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Dec 13, 2008 
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A.J. Burnett is now a Yankee after accepting a five-year deal. Location was the difference as he wanted to play in New York instead of Atlanta.
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The Angels announced last night that they made Mark Teixeira an eight-year offer. No further details were announced, but it seems safe to say it was for at least $160 million. If that’s where the Angels started, they’re likely willing to go to nine years and $180 million.
The Nationals have made a similar offer, the Orioles have gone seven years. It’s unclear whether Boston has made an offer. The point is that there is now an active market for Teixeira, meaning the Yankees would have to invest heavily were they to chase him. Which is why they probably will not given what they have already spent.
Teixeira is a true acolyte of Scott Boras and will go where the money is. Bet on the Angels getting this done. If they are to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL, they have almost no choice.
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I’m on a flight back to New York this afternoon and will be out of touch for much of the day. It’s the shame that Blog Headquarters isn’t always in Las Vegas. Thanks for reading all this week and I’ll check back in when I get a chance.
YES, I’m FIRST!!!!
No on Teixeira!!! Thank god.
I still say the Yanks are gonna regret not getting Teixeira for years to come.
If he’s not gonna be a Yankee, here’s hoping the Nationals sign him.
They may regret it for 2, maybe 3, years, but not for all 8.
Where ya been, Pete? Whatcha been doing?
Thanks for the complete (haha) coverage. Where are the meetings next year?
in 2009 the meetings will be in indianapolis
in 2010 they will be in orlando
Here’s to hoping Teixeira signs with the Yankees anyway,
Pete, his family is situated on the east coast, specifically, in the Chesapeake area. Any person who is familiar with Texeira, knows that even though he has professed his affinity for Cali, its much too far from the rest of his family, whom he is very close to. Ultimately, acolyte of Boras or not, I think where his family resides will determine wherever he goes… so I feel its almost a guarantee he’ll be playing somewhere on the east coast come next April, no matter how much money the Angels throw his way.
Here’s hoping its the Orioles or the Nationals
Yankees react to CC & AJ signings:
“I feel less stress because you have all these guys around to be leaders for you,” Chamberlain said. “It takes a little pressure off of everybody.” (NY Post)
“On most teams, Sabathia, Burnett and Wang would be No. 1 starters,” Damon said. “We have three No. 1 guys.” (NY Post)
Characterization of Cash’s visit to Andy:
However, a baseball official familiar with Cashman and Pettitte’s talk described it as “a good meeting. They’re both thinking about it.” (NY Daily News)
I could see Tex and Zimmerman being the cornerstones for the rebuilding Nats. What a foundation for a team.
Hope for the Angels
Hope harder for the Orioles
Hope the hardest for the Nationals
IMO, if there really is a spending ceiling…
Don’t spend the $ on Pettitte and Cameron. Let the kids compete for the 5th spot. If needed, then sign Andy midyear to a prorated contract.
Damon and Gardner in center. And use the money for RF.
I am ready for Yankeeography: Manny Ramirez.
“On most teams, Sabathia, Burnett and Wang would be No. 1 starters,” Damon said. “We have three No. 1 guys.” (NY Post)
—————————————————-
Thats true, except I think Wang is more of an ideal 2 starter
Thread transfer:
Ho Hum, board alreay lol.
No sheets and thats ok. For me it’s Andy or stay young as the big three will carry us and Joba and whoever will be fine if we hit.
So that said, I’m waiting on the bat to be added.
With the Angels at 8 years on Tex I would expect the cute little Red Sockies to at least get there if not 9.
We have to get to 9 although I am leary of that many years as 10 will probably be the final number someone gets to if they want him that bad. Obviously the market is there for him and if that many teams want him he must be something good.
So, looking at what we need, one more bat, and where we will be after this year on payroll, I think we should make the move.
As far as long term goes, we need to look beyond this year and next for payroll relief and plan our building blocks around Tex and some of the young kids.
Defer some of his salary next year and fit him in to what could be one of the best Yankee teams of our generation.
vickram,
Thanks for that. Indy? yawn.
Gehrig,
True, but Wang has produced like an ace. Semi-ace? A 1.5? Wanger’s the bomb. The silent killer. haha.
Cash,
Put in an offer. Throw in that proverbial wrench. The team is an attraction again. If you build it, Tex will come. Let’s see, Boston? Yankees? Boston? Yankees?
Also, get Damon, Joba, Jeter, everyone to call and Andy to show him some love since you’re being cheap.
What difference does it make what arbitrary number someone assigns these guys. No other team is going to run out a rotation and bullpen that matches that. Only Boston and the Angels have rotations that come close, but issues in the bullpen.
The “number one pitcher” is the guy starting that day.
Diet Coke,
Joba is going to be the 5th starter because of his 150 inning max. We need someone to fill the 4th spot– you could say that Hughes/Kennedy could split the 4th spot– they will both probably have an innings limit. But it would probably serve both of the best to have another year in the minors and then Hughes could have the 5th spot next year. Pettitte could serve as the seat warmer this year for whoever would be the 5th starter next year. I would take Pettitte over any other free agent– he will only require one year.
With the free agent OFs available next year– you are going to want funds available. I could see an OF of Holliday, AJax and Vlad next year– gotta have money for Holliday and Vlad– both are free agents. Manny would be a DH– I wouldn’t put him in the OF– but maybe he signs for 1 year.
If I’m the Yankees, at the very least, I throw in a 8/160 offer for Texeira just to make sure the Angels and Red Sox have to give 200 million in the end.
They do it to us all the time and in the off chance 8/160 is what Tex would take to come to NY, so be it. Hell, I’d even throw in a 4 year opt out (Boras would love that just to really piss of Boston and LA.
In four years perhaps Jesus would be ready to play come down from the heavens and play 1b.
Why go after Teixeira when a man by the name of albert pujols will be a free agent soon, Imagine the shivers across the league with A-rod and Pujols batting right next to each other.
If we don’t sign Andy, I say we stop there with the pitching acquisitions.
If Phil has a ST like he did before he got injured this past spring, I give him the 5th slot bumping Joba up to the 4th spot. What’re the innings projections for Joba & Hughes? I wouldn’t think they’re that far off and they’d both be short. Keep Aceves in the pen for longman and spot starts.
You’re looking at:
CC
AJ
Wang
Joba
Hughes
Andy’s the safer bet, but he’s a prideful man. Gut instinct says he’s back though, I think he wants to span the two stadiums.
“However, a baseball official familiar with Cashman and Pettitte’s talk described it as “a good meeting. *They’re both thinking about it*.” (NY Daily News)”
What’s there to think about ? Hurry the hell up and make your decision.
“*I feel less stress* because you have all these guys around to be leaders for you,” Chamberlain said. “It takes a little pressure off of everybody.”
Well that’s a telling statement right there.
Cincinnati going after Wigginton, Miles and Taveras. Miles as a utility to replace Hairston if he doesn’t return, Wigginton for left field and Taveras for center field. Talk about going the “skid row route”.
“*I feel less stress* because you have all these guys around to be leaders for you,” Chamberlain said. “It takes a little pressure off of everybody.”
Well that’s a telling statement right there.
=======================
Sounds like Joba doesn’t want to be the man. Doesn’t want to be a leader. Doesn’t want to deal with the pressure. See how words can be taken out of context and turn into unsubstantiated statements?
1. WHo’s batting in the 3 hole?
Nady?
Swisher?
Abreu??
2. Who’s protecting Alex?
Kaballah?
Brandon (SHOW SHEETS THE MONEEEEEY !, CC & AJ are Yankees!)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
December 13th, 2008 at 2:39 pm
“However, a baseball official familiar with Cashman and Pettitte’s talk described it as “a good meeting. They’re both thinking about it.” (NY Daily News)”
What’s there to think about ? Hurry the hell up and make your decision.
“*I feel less stress* because you have all these guys around to be leaders for you,” Chamberlain said. “It takes a little pressure off of everybody.”
Well that’s a telling statement right there.
————————————————————
You don’t think all 5 starters aren’t thinking the same thing? It allows them to go out and pitch their game.
“they probably will not”
Probably Pete? What happened to the absolutes of not too long ago?
gehrig,
im sure plenty of teams would take wang as there number 1 starter, for instance the orioles, rangers, royals, etc.
and “Hey Cashman” im pretty sure were getting rid of abreu
The Teixeira negotiations now become very interesting, particularly for the Sox.
Some people were wondering whether the Angels would be truly willing to go to the wall for Tex.
Well they’ve broken the $150M mark. They are all in.
If the Sox were hoping to get Tex for around 7/150M – which wouldn’t have been too bad, that opportunity has passed.
Tex is quickly moving into the $180M – 200M range. That’s an enormous amount of money.
If Tex signs with the Sox he’ll represent at probably around 15-16% of their payroll. For the Angels it’ll be around 18-19%.
For comparison Alex makes up 16% of the yankees payroll.
At these prices, even if the yankees don’t sign tex, they win in many respects.
This is a huge expenditure and committment for both the Sox and the Angels. Both franchises have the money but once either spends this much it will lock them in some what.
I don’t know if they have the capacity to have 2-3 players on their roster making $20M+. So whoever they pick to be that 20M+ guy better be an absolute franchise talent.
Tex is a terrific all around player. But at what price do you start really looking at how terrific he is?
How elastic are you on the price for Tex given his talent?
Tex has a career OPS+ of 134. That’s very good. It’s not even close to great.
Jason Bay’s career OPS+ is 131. In terms of ceilings Tex’s highest OPS+ has been 150. He’s never slugged .600 and never had an OPS+ of 1.000.
Manny’s career OPS+ – 155. Alex – 147. Papi since coming to Boston – 150. Pujols – 172.
He’s a very good glove and his greatest strength is his well balanced play. But he’s simply not a great bat. And it’s a real question in my mind how much is player whose greatest strength is his all around game who doesn’t play up the middle or at a difficult position to fill like 3b?
Tex is a 4 win player – as such he’s worth $20-22M per year on the open market and that looks like what he’ll get.
But that’s a large fixed cost for a first baseman who is a very good but not great bat.
I understand Tex really fits the profile of the hitters the sox like particularly his high OBP but that’s his biggest strength – OBP. He hasn’t hit for the kind of elite power you’d normall associate with a guy who is going to get paid $180-200M.
It’ll be very interesting to see what happens given the dollars they are now talking about for tex, particularly given the $24M or so Lowell is still owed.
It seemed crazy giving Alex a 10 year deal. He’s older than tex but tex is also nowhere near the player alex is.
The Sox will have to make an enormous, franchise altering commitment to sign Tex now given the Angels desperation.
HEY CASHMAN
December 13th, 2008 at 2:42 pm
1. WHo’s batting in the 3 hole?
Nady?
Swisher?
Abreu??
2. Who’s protecting Alex?
Kaballah?
—————————————
I would guess that Matsui would be hit in the three hole and Posada would bat 5th
“Sounds like Joba doesn’t want to be the man. Doesn’t want to be a leader. Doesn’t want to deal with the pressure. See how words can be taken out of context and turn into unsubstantiated statements?”
I was going to attribute that to the pressure Hughes/Kennedy/Joba carried last season well more Hughes/Joba because we know IPK was too cool under pressure. Having CC and AJ (I hope some of what Halladay taught him he teaches to Hughes and Joba) could give the kids thier confidence back, less on Joba.
Why go after Teixeira when a man by the name of albert pujols will be a free agent soon, Imagine the shivers across the league with A-rod and Pujols batting right next to each other.
————————————————————
Pujols is signed thru 2010 with a club option for 2011.
You’re obviously connected to the internet, so why not take a few seconds to get your facts straight before posting garbage?
I’d still wait till 2011 for Pujols than sign Tex. Plus we need 1B for a future fall back spot. Sorry no Tex in NY.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ml?eref=T1
The yanks should have certain rules to abide by when signing free agent pitchers:
1. Dont give any one over 35 contracts longer than 1 year
2. If a player has immense talent but a laundry list of injuries – 2 years tops (if they are over thirty-five see rule 1)
3. No player should be given one of the highest contracts in the game unless they are one of the best pitchers in the game
4. Dont sign a pitcher coming off the best year of their career unless they are consistently solid year in and year out
I’d still wait till 2011 for Pujols than sign Tex. Plus we need 1B for a future fall back spot. Sorry no Tex in NY.
————————————————————
When the offense is laying eggs this season even worse than last year, alot of you are gonna understand just how much more of a priority Teixeira should have been.
I wonder if there will be a spike or premium on players like Damon, Jeter, Rodriguez, Cameron (if he’s traded) and Gardner (when he plays) running and stealing bases and on Girardi putting on more hit and run plays?
“When the offense is laying eggs this season even worse than last year, alot of you are gonna understand just how much more of a priority Teixeira should have been.”
I can’t wait to find that out.
Looking at the Post backpage photos. CC was met with “Fat City!” and AJ was greeted with “Burn, Baby, Burn”. WTH with CC’s caption?
Totally O/T, but what was that show? It wasn’t “AJ & the Fatman” was it?
I know his defense blows but I;d love to have Prince Fielder’s big left-handed stick hitting HRs in the new stadium. I love his HR swing.
dave
I understand what you’re saying. And in a perfect world, your rules are fine. But it’s not a perfect world. And when you have virtually no solid starting pitching – 1 and 2/3 of the rotation spots filled – you are by definition desperate. Desperate teams need to break the “rules” so to speak to do whatever is necessary to correct the situation. Add into that situation the situation of MLB where every team is looking for solid, if not great, starting pitching, and you realize that the Yankees did what had to be done. It’s not ideal, but, in our New York parlance, it is what it is.
from previous thread:
AJ is going to look great in pinstripes and road greys and within a couple weeks it’ll be hard to remember what he looked like in those lesser uniforms of his past. I’m saying 15 wins is the 2009 floor for AJ. AJ optimist, that’s me. Lineups that just faced CC and Wang won’t get any relief from AJ. Or, lineups facing AJ won’t have anything to look forward to with Pettitte and Joba. Or… you get the picture.
from this thread only:
No need anymore to ask what drove Joba to the bottle. Now he can relax and be the king he was born- I mean, the pitcher he was born to be. CC and AJ aren’t just saving our team; they’re saving our Joba.
mel
December 13th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Looking at the Post backpage photos. CC was met with “Fat City!” and AJ was greeted with “Burn, Baby, Burn”. WTH with CC’s caption?
Totally O/T, but what was that show? It wasn’t “AJ & the Fatman” was it?
————————————————————
“Jake And The Fat Man” William Conrad.
I dont think tex should have been priority number one. But after blowing 82.5 million for 5 years of Burnett, I agree we might as well went the cheaper route for our third and fourth starters (Sheets and pettitte or just sheets and aceves) and spent the money more wisely on tex or dunn. If this is the end of our offensive moves after trading for cameron, the offensive lineup is going to look mighty weak after those first one or two injuries start to occur as they do every single year. And dont say we could never have expected an injury to _____ (fill in any name here) and cash shouldnt be held responsible for predicting the future because an injury to a major figure in the lineup happens every year like clockwork. The lineup isnt strong enough to sustain an injury to any one major and the bench is once again filled with nothing very good.
i agree with ace…get the prince
mel -
Jake and the Fatman.
Brandon
That sounds very immature. Even though I’d love to have Tex, the Yankees needed pitching even more.
So lets just suppose it is August 15th 2009 about 2 weeks before the trade deadline. Several potential FA hitters will be on the market at a discount or maybe a premium for teams trying to cut their losses. We all know the economy is bad so that could contribute so additional talent to be exposed. The Yankees can pick up a great hitter (perhaps even Berkman) and solidify their offense.
But the pitching they now have will at least solidify a wildcard! Relax and enjoy the Yankees! They truly want to win and who knows what they will do even before the season. If you are a Yankee fan at least hold your contempt or failure wishes for someone else like the RSox or Mets! LOL!
I think Pettitte needs a deadline, this isn’t funny we have other priorities and he’s clearly stalling for that rumored Rangers 12 million dollar offer. Put a deadline on him Cash.
GB7,
LOL. Too much AJ or SC or JW on the brain. (Can you figure out the figurative SC & JW? Hint: JD)
Nick,
We’re feeling generous this am aren’t we? I’ll be magnaminous as well, I’m getting very excited about the 1-2-3-4 punch led by the clear ace, CC.
“Totally O/T, but what was that show? It wasn’t “AJ & the Fatman” was it?”
mel
Need to pull of the Peavy trade to make that headline- Jake and the Fatman.
G. Love,2.36 post
Interesting thought, and I agree.
I would first get a yeah/neah from Andy to see if he’s gonna take 10. If he is not, that slot I hand over to Phil/IPK/Aceves/Coke to battle for as the 4th P (Joba remains at 5 due to innings). Forget Sheets.
If Petitte says yes, I go in for Tex at 20*8, if he says no, I go for 21*8. To force BOS and ANA hands. If they want him they have to pay full price. I also give Tex an opt out at 4 years.
It is time to put the foot on the jugular.
nom@@s coverage have tailed off, of late.
they didn’t like the Burnett signing.
whatever the case, signing Burnett was definitely better then trading Cano for Matt Cain.
mel
December 13th, 2008 at 3:04 pm
GB7,
LOL. Too much AJ or SC or JW on the brain. (Can you figure out the figurative SC & JW? Hint: JD)
————————————————————
Perhsps you were thinking of “BJ And The Bear” or “TJ Hooker” or BB Rebozo.
Dorren,
I disagree because burnett was not absolutely essential for us – we could have let him go to the braves. We could have signed sheets to a two year deal which leaves room for one of the 8 or so pitching prospects we have to become a regular starter and sign pettitite for one year which leaves room for Hughes next year. We could have just signed sheets for around 14 mil next season and stuck aceves in the fifth spot with joba in the fourth. With pettitte and sheets, i think we still make a play for dunn. With sheets and aceves/coke/Hughes/IPK in the fifth spot, we still have money for tex. Either of those signings, puts swisher on the bench deepening the bench dramatically. Its not like signing burnett = championship. There were many ways we could go after signing CC as our ace with wang as our second starter who could be considered an ace and joba who will probably have a breakout season. I feel like sheets and burnett are almost equivalent in injury history and sheets has the upper hand in talent as he walks about 50 plus less guys a season. Burnett while amazing stuff has trouble finding the plate some days and has trouble making it out on the field other days. He is the last person in the free agent class who should have been given five years. Even his actual numbers last year werent all that impressive outside of his AL east dominance. And letting him go to the braves meant we never had to face him again.
“I’d still wait till 2011 for Pujols than sign Tex. Plus we need 1B for a future fall back spot. Sorry no Tex in NY.”
This makes no sense. You want to save 1st as a fallback spot for 2 aging players? However your also signing Pujols for 2012 when Jeter will be 38 and playing for at least another 3 years and Arod will be 36.
Exactly who do we have signed for the next 10 years that are clogging up our corner outfield spots past 09?
doreen,
Thanks. That was a looong time ago.
Pat,
Unfortunately, I think Jake Westbrook would be a better bet.
Prince Fielder = DH in the American League.
“But after blowing 82.5 million for 5 years of Burnett…”
So you’re ready to call AJ a bust already? I had such high hopes for him.
“Exactly who do we have signed for the next 10 years that are clogging up our corner outfield spots past 09?”
You also have to think that soo Posada will have to move to 1B, heck Jeter and Arod more Jeter is not going to be a on the left side for thier whole careers, plus oh yeh that kid Montero better known as Jesus to most of us. They can’t longterm a spot plus it’s not only the player longterm but the insurance coverage of that player that they will not recieve. Yes the economy means something.
Brandon,
Add some more stuff to your handle. I want to see how long it can be before the system starts truncating stuff.
Harwood,
you do know Swisher is our 1B for a couple of years, at least for now right?
Vizquel is 40 years old and he’s still playing SS. why can’t Jeter do the same? Jeter will move to another position when he feels its time to.
If the Yankees took Option 2, they could sign Tex, trade Swishers $7 million per, platoon Gardner/Melky in CF, and still sign Andy for 1 year at $10 million. It’s not likely, and I don’t think it will happen, but it is somewhat possible.
Cash hasn’t pulled off a stealth move yet this off season. He owes us one.
Today is the start of the 12 days of Christmas. On the 1st day of Christmas, the Yankees gave to me ____?
Back to baking Christmas cookies.
dave
I don’t love the 5 years to Burnett. But at least it’s not 5 for him AND 4 for Lowe. That would tie of the rotation for far too long. Anyway – apparently from what I’m reading and hearing, they’re not too comfortable with Sheets’ medicals. So, if he’s a pitch away from TJ, even a 2-year deal would be too much don’t you think?
If he’s healthy, sure, then you let Atlanta take Burnett out of the AL East and go for it another, less expensive (in both money and years) way. But, it hasn’t worked out that way.
mel-
I looked it up. (sheepish grin)
“But after blowing 82.5 million for 5 years of Burnett”
for every negative, i can think of 2 positves for signing Burnett.
beginning with:
#1) his ability to step up performance, in games which matter.
#2) his ERA versus the Redsox
#3) his ERA versus the AL East
The Royals non-tendered Joey Gathright.
Has Montero actually officially switched to 1b? I thought he was still a catching prospect.
And I really dont like everyone penciling in Pujols like that. St. Louis isnt stupid. Hes a franchise player hes not leaving.
mel, in many discussions the choice was presented as CC *or* AJ, and I know which one of them I want to take that 3:00 a.m. call. But once CC was on board and the option became CC *and* AJ… well, that’s change I can believe in.
If I had $200M to $220M now to put together a team for this year, I would not have some of the current Yankees on it but it doesn’t work that way.
I bet the Yankees (Cash Money) have talked to every GM, FA or FA Agent and knows their positions. I imagine they have studied it well and even know AAA options of other teams that might parlay a need filled. They have a “PROCESS”! LOL! I can’t tell you how frustrated many of us were the last few years over the lack of Solid Pitching!!! (Including having lost Pettite for awhile!) Now, it seems solid and deep.
The hitters remaining have flaws! Tex is going to be very expensive! Very! (10 Years $220M before it ends I bet.) Is he worth it? Probably. But maybe not to the Yankees. Manny is a tremendous hitter! Wow!! But is he worth the defensive liability? Or do you replace Matsui a DH only with another DH only? I think so, but the question remains, is Matsui healthy. And is he still a 100 RBI guy?
I like Ankiel for CF best of all anounced here as possibilities & not Cameron, but I really don’t know how either would do in NY!
So I say go with what the Yankees basically have now (plus Pettite & or Sheets) and see how May 1st looks. Or June 1st! Or before Sept 1st! And then tweak or add what completes the team with less money against the cap as well.
Willy Taveras is a FA via being NT’d by the Rockies.
I could see the Yankees signing Tex, but not trading Swish. I think they like Swisher for what he brings. He can also cover a corner OF position when it’s vacated next season. That would push Gardner back to AAA until JD & Matsui are gone. We can not overlook the fact that we’ll have 3 holes in the OF next season. I know Jackson’s the heir apparent, but until he appears I’m not counting on that.
Burnett may not have been essential to you dave but, it was to yhe Yankees. He was a key part of their off-season plans. Next to CC, he was high priority.
CB,
Is there a way to calculate win shares for the Yankees with Tex-Gardner-Hughes vs. Pettitte-Cameron-Swisher? I’m curious as to how the numbers stack up when deciding how they should the remaining 20-22 million they seem able to spend.
Wasn’t the Swisher trade a stealth move?
nick in sf-
livan hernandez had about a 5.25 era in mid july while at the same time aj burnett had about a 5.21 era.
just take a moment and think about that. livan for half a year was as good as burnett.
what i worry about is whether burnett can handle being that bad for that long in new york with the new york spotlight and pressure on him, and then turn it on like he did in toronto. streakiness is a tough high wire act in new york.
Gardner > Taveras, defensively and offensively.
Real World:
we already have Joey Gathright (and Tavares). His name is Brett Gardner.
Swisher’s parts and not top of the lineup material until otherwise proven. The Tex debate has more to do with filling in the lineup then a position. And Swish only has 3 years on his contract left.
uhhh ..any one kno whats supp wit the cameron deal ???
just asking …
Games that matter – When has burnett pitched in a game that mattered? He has no playoff starts.
Doreen – i JUST find it strange that the yanks wouldnt be comfortable with his med records but the rangers said they looked fine. I dunno how that is possible. Plus, he has a tear of a flexor muscle – that like pulling a hammy but in your arm – That should not be an indicator of TJ surgery or anything serious really. He hasn’t had any recurring injuries in years – sheets i mean. I never looked at his medical records but i have looked up and down his medical history – i cant see anything all that bad that i would avoid a two year deal. And im in med school so i know a little about some of this stuff.
“It seemed crazy giving Alex a 10 year deal. He’s older than tex but tex is also nowhere near the player alex is.”
True, but he’ll be paid about 70% of what Rodriguez is being paid. On a bad day, he’s 70% of the player Arod is.
Teixeira certainly isn’t the hitter, especially power wise, but he’s probably a little bit better fielder. As for his OPS+, his career number of 134 is quite good and probably skewed by a 102 OPS+ posted his rookie year. The rookie year counts, of course, but in his 5 seasons since, his OPS+ is a shade over 140.
Justin,
Saw this morning that Melvin said the Yankees were “busy”, presumably with AJ & Pettitte. Did Cash really put Melvin on hold?
the only non-tender I would take a shot at is **Chris Burke**, since he could play all over the out/infield.
http://www.fangraphs.com/fanta...../aj-to-ny/
Nice read on the impact of the Burnett signing in the AL East. It’s like playing Pitching Roulette just hope the bullet isn’t in the chamber.
mel,
I think that throwing Hughes into the rotation at the start of 2009 is not a wise decision. As you point out, Chamberlain has innings limits and so too will Hughes. You don’t want two guys like that in your starting rotation.
Hughes should be allowed to continue developing pitches in AAA until at least midway through the 2009 season at which point they might call him up for spot starts and long relief…maybe spell Chamberlain here and there while gaining ML experience.
I think Pettitte is a must, but I also agree that he definitely needs to take a pay cut.
“Why go after Teixeira when a man by the name of albert pujols will be a free agent soon”
Soon is a relative term. He’s locked into the Cards for another 3 seasons.
dave,
You’re in medical school? Wow. I’m impressed. I hope you have a better outlook when giving a prognosis to your patients. You need to at least give patients a little hope. You seem to make up your mind and can’t be shaken.
Hmmm… in regard to that SI article, is there any reason we haven’t considered Edmonds for center? I can’t imagine preferring Mike Cameron – Melky Cabrera > Jim Edmonds
randy l: and then AJ was DFA’d like Livan too, right?
Are you suggesting that the free market has been exposed here?
“i can think of 2 positves for signing Burnett.
beginning with:
#1) his ability to step up performance, in games which matter.
#2) his ERA versus the Redsox
#3) his ERA versus the AL East”
That’s THREE isn’t it? Or are we accepting as fact #1 isn’t true since he’s never really pitched in a game that matters?
“Edmonds for center? ”
because Edmonds is nothing more of a platoon hitter. no range at all.
“Games that matter – When has burnett pitched in a game that mattered? He has no playoff starts”
i’ll bite.
games which matter = games which mattered to Burnett.
Burnett have owned the Yankees and Redsox. And those are the only ‘big’ games Toronto have had on their schedule in recent years. Burnett has stepped up big in those games. I don’t recall if Burnett pitched in any playoff/important games with Florida.
What a difference a year makes. Wasn’t it just last year that Jeter was playing beach volleyball with Jessica Biel in the Caribbean. And now he’s going to college football games with what’s her face?
Oh, you mean baseball. Yeah, what a difference a year makes. From bitter disappointment about a certain non-trade to a stacked rotation.
“That’s THREE isn’t it? Or are we accepting as fact #1 isn’t true since he’s never really pitched in a game that matters”
Fredo: if you don’t like it, talk to Cashman. From my view, the move have risk and high upside. And very thankful we didn’t sign Lowe. Or trade key prospects for Peavy.
The only games that matter now, are AJ’s starts for the Yankees.
Vinny:
1) Neither you nor I have any clue what matters to Burnett
2) To me a game that matters is one where your team’s fortunes are on the line (pennant race, postseason, etc). He’s never been in a such a game.
I am tired of posting the same thing over and over but I guess I’m hoping that Cash is reading this stuff.
Waiting for Pujols is rediculous as you wouldn’t even know if the Cards would let him get away.
Holliday is also silly to wait for because we don’t know anything about his desires as obviously geography is becoming mre of a factor now than ever before.
The bottom line is that we have a 3 yr window with Jeter,Posada,Mo, possibly CC and the time to win is now. We have young kids, and if CC stays beyond the opt out to build around butthe real opportunity to win is in teh next 3 yrs.
If we don’t hit then it wil be tough to swallow. 3-2 bames will be the norm but who here doesn’t want to win 8-2?
So we need to get more runs through a bigger bat addition.
Manny would certainly help that but that would limit him to our 3 yr window.
Tex helps in the 3 yr window and helps in the long term beyond that window. Defer his salary next year and you wil have the guy that we wil be wishing we had next off season.
Find a away to trade Nady or Matsui and let Swisher play RF.
I’d go with melky/Gardner for now and if it doesn’t work then deal with that later to get over the top. Forget Cameron.
If we add Pettite great, if not Hughes/Aceves wil be fine in 4/5 hole.
Going into new stadium is about winning with big revenues coming in.
I agree that Cash is going stealth on this and when the time is right he is going to swoop in and bring Tex to where he probably wants to play. Looking at this team how could you not want to be a part of it?
2) To me a game that matters is one where your team’s fortunes are on the line (pennant race, postseason, etc). He’s never been in a such a game.
So we can’t make any definitive statements either way. And I hope that doesn’t mean that Wang and CC will crap in every postseason start based on what they’ve done. Otherwise, put up Pettitte, Hughes, and Joba in the ALDS.
“Fredo: if you don’t like it, talk to Cashman.”
I’ll speed dial him now. I don’t like it. 5 years is ridiculous for this guy.
Vinny, when you put it that way it sounds like an indictment of Burnett’s character.
“My starts against the O’s don’t matter, but games against the Sox do?”
“Waiting for Pujols is rediculous as you wouldn’t even know if the Cards would let him get away.”
He doesn’t like Lassorda he’s been wanting out, plus you can always S&T for him.
vinny-b (bring back Petitte and sign Sheets at 2 yrs)
December 13th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
“Games that matter – When has burnett pitched in a game that mattered? He has no playoff starts”
i’ll bite.
games which matter = games which mattered to Burnett.
Burnett have owned the Yankees and Redsox. And those are the only ‘big’ games Toronto have had on their schedule in recent years. Burnett has stepped up big in those games. I don’t recall if Burnett pitched in any playoff/important games with Florida.
—
He hasn’t as 2003 was the year he hurt his arm and missed the playoffs. He only pitched 23 innings that year. He wasn’t on their 97 team either. This year will be the first time he pitches in the playoffs.
Cash is too busy to read all of this, he has it summarized for him. That’s why I try to keep it brief. Yo Cash, what up!!!
LaRussa * (you get the point)
“So we can’t make any definitive statements either way.”
No, we can’t. I was just refuting Vinnie’s notion that he’s a guy who steps in big games. Since he’s never been in one, it’s await and see proposition.
“He doesn’t like Lassorda he’s been wanting out”
I don’t like Tommy Lasorda either, but what does that habe to do with Pujols?
“He doesn’t like Lassorda he’s been wanting out”
Yep. Fact: LaRussa didn’t play Pujols in the 2007 All-Stars when the NL were in a clutch situation in the bottom of the 9th inning.
- a wait and see…
“He doesn’t like Lassorda he’s been wanting out, plus you can always S&T for him.”
Brandon, what does S&T mean?
Brandon (SHOW SHEETS THE MONEEEEEY !, CC & AJ are Yankees!)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
December 13th, 2008 at 3:41 pm
“Waiting for Pujols is rediculous as you wouldn’t even know if the Cards would let him get away.”
He doesn’t like Lassorda he’s been wanting out, plus you can always S&T for him.
—-
It’s Larussa not lassorda and if he has a problem with his manager than the cards will fire him before they let Pujols get away.
Awww Brandon, you self-corrected before I could remember how to spell Lasorda correctly. Grrrr.
Let me ask you this: what country does this Pujols guy come from?
sign and trade. More like what the Mets did w/ you know who.
las vegas’s suicide rate is double that of the average u.s. city for both residents and visitors. as a matter of fact, it has become a ‘destination’ city for people contemplating suicide.
Okay, Fredo. Just didn’t want you jumping all over my guy AJ. None of us like the fifth year, and most of us are worried about the first 4 years as well. But the Yankees love him, targeted him, and we have plenty of insurance around him.
Mix, drink, and enjoy. Which pitcher will be the straw that stirs the drink?
“Let me ask you this: what country does this Pujols guy come from?”
D.R.
I guess Ozzie Gullien will curse more than he does in a season. Kenny Williams hinted the Betemit will be their starting 3B. For every butchered plays that Betemit makes, Ozzie will be tick off..
I knew Betemit would be their 3B, no love for Josh Fields?
Why am I still reading in some articles that the Yankees are going after Sheets. I thought Pete said the Yankees decided to pass after seeing his medical records TOO many red flags. Also at this point Pettitte should see that Cash isn’t going to raise his offer. IF he wants to be a Yankee so bad why not take the offer? It isn’t like 6 million is a big difference to someone who has already earned 100 million is his career.
Pujols comes from the D.R.???? I never would have guessed.
What?! Is that why you don’t like Teixeira, Brandon? Because he’s not Dominican?!
Not…, Relevance?
“What?! Is that why you don’t like Teixeira, Brandon? Because he’s not Dominican?!”
Pujols or Berkman >>> Teixeira….. mel
Gotta step out, but I’ve started the next expansion team.
The Ex-Yankees:
SP Andy Pettitte (it’s not too, late, Andy)
SP Randy Johnson
RP Scott Proctor
1B Jason Giambi
OF Bobby Abreu
Can you guys fill in the rest?
UT Miguel Cairo
just to back up what I said:
He [Betemit] would see playing time at third base for the White Sox, who have not re-signed free agent Joe Crede.
http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/.....BHeadlines
——
Guillen will hold the record of cursing the most in a season.
not the greater las vegas tourism board
December 13th, 2008 at 3:47 pm
las vegas’s suicide rate is double that of the average u.s. city for both residents and visitors. as a matter of fact, it has become a ‘destination’ city for people contemplating suicide.
—
I hear Gammons may be moving there if we sign Tex
“Is there a way to calculate win shares for the Yankees with Tex-Gardner-Hughes vs. Pettitte-Cameron-Swisher?”
SJ,
There’s two basic issues going on in these kind of projections – the best estimate and the range of values those estimates could take. I’ll try to touch on both.
First the straight wins estimate. I’ll ball park these off the top of my head but they’ll be pretty good estimates. I’m going to do it in wins above replacement/the average player at the position as that’s a better method than win shares.
Tex-Gardner-Hughes:
To estimate Tex’s value the biggest issue is actually Nick Swisher’s value at 1b. I know that sounds strange but in your scenario Gardner stays at CF so I assume Swisher plays RF (your scenario assumes Damon cannot play CF regularly).
Right now if Swisher projects to be around 1 game better than a replacement level first baseman. Tex projects to be around 4 wins better than replacement.
So tex is a 3 win upgrade over Swisher. Now if Swisher fully rebounds to his 2006-2007 form it’s likely Swisher will be 2 games better than replacement so Tex would be around 2 games better than Swisher. But right now 3 games is safe.
If Swisher replaces Nady I’d call that roughly a draw in RF. Maybe Swisher is one win better than Nady?
Gardner projects to be 20 runs below an average offensive CF which is roughly a replacment level CF. Defensively he projects to be around 10 runs better. So I’d say Gardner is a -10 run player. That’s -1 win below replacement.
But Cameron projects to be at least 2 wins above replacement.
So Cameron could be 3 wins better than Gardner.
Hughes vs. Pettite. Pettite projects to be 3 wins above replacement next season though with his health I could see that being 2 wins.
I think Hughes if healthy would be at least 1 game better than replacment. Maybe 2. Let’s call Andy +1 on hughes.
Here’s the rough net calculation then:
Tex – 3 wins better than Swisher
Gardner – 3 wins worse than Cameron
Hughes – 1 win worse than Andy.
So the Tex-Gardner-Hughes alignment is one win worse than the Swisher-Camero-Pettite alignment.
Now we get to point two – the range of possible performance. A wider range means much more risk is involved.
Simply put it’s very, very difficult to accurately predict what Gardner or Hughes will do. I could see Gardner being worse than -10 – I could see him being a -20 player.
Hughes has an even wider range than Gardner because his upside is higher. I could see him being as good as Andy in 2009 or considerably worse. So there’s a lot of risk there.
The thing that kills Tex’s value is playing Gardner in CF. If Gardner hits at replacement level it just wipes out most of Tex’s value.
This is why i’ve posted about this several times – the key to Tex’s value is whether or not Johnny Damon can play CF.
If Damon can play 120-130 games in CF then you really start talking about big advantages to tex. Because you move tex to first and then swisher to left and damon to CF.
If you could play that alignment then you’d have Tex’s bat essentially replacing Gardner’s in a strange way.
I’d say the Tex 1b -Damon CF – Swisher LF – Hughes P would be 4 wins better than Swisher-Cameron-Damon-Pettite.
But that all depends on whether you believe Damon can play a reasonable CF. There’s no way around that.
I’d personally give it a shot as a way to upgrade the offense.
I particularly think Damon in CF is much more viable because they now have a strike out staff that hitter won’t get any lift off of – Wang, AJ, and Joba are huge ground ball pitchers – all over 50% GB. CC is way up there as well – around 46-47% GB.
Next year the defense will be much better because Abreu won’t be there and there will be far fewer fly ball chances.
But the only way I can see Damon in CF working is to get a new 1b and move Swisher to LF. That’s the problem.
An outfield of Manny in LF or Dunn in LF with Damon in CF spells disaster. Don’t think that’s viable.
Swisher would have good range in LF. So he could help johnny cover ground in the OF especially at the stadium with its large LF.
So right now the best way to make the offense better would be to upgrade 1b and move Damon to CF. If you can do that you could get a huge boost in wins.
If damon can play CF for a year tex becomes a huge get. If he doesnt’ then Tex’s effect gets washed out.
But if damon can play CF if they could upgrade 1b with a player outside of tex that would also help a lot e.g. take a shot on trading for nick johnson.
The biggest key right now is to get Gardner out of the outfield and to not give him 500 AB. That could be a disaster – even with Tex.
You do realize Pujols is going to get an Arod contract right?
mel
December 13th, 2008 at 3:54 pm
Gotta step out, but I’ve started the next expansion team.
The Ex-Yankees:
SP Andy Pettitte (it’s not too, late, Andy)
SP Randy Johnson
RP Scott Proctor
1B Jason Giambi
OF Bobby Abreu
Can you guys fill in the rest?
UT Miguel Cairo
—-
ss – Guzzman
3B – Lowell
of – Juan Rivera
1b – Nick Johnson
These were home grown Yankees
I can’t believe Wilson B got that contract from the White Soxs. And they say the Yankees have money to burn. That is an INSANE contract.
And ?
“You do realize Pujols is going to get an Arod contract right?”
Not from STL. I don’t see them having that kind of cash. $300mil is a lot to teams not named the New York Yankees.
Guillen is going to wear out the * bleep * sound card
CB
Very well reasoned and explained, thanks.
However the inference that I draw is that if Melky wasn’t such a useless mook, the Yankees would be well advised to make a run at Tex
The peole who know a pitcher best are as follows:
1. The Pitcher himself
2. His Pitching Coach
3. His Pitching Teammates
4. His Catcher(s)
5. His Manager
6. Other team players
Now with AJ, #2,3,4 & 5 wanted him back in Toronto! Al Leitter (#3) said he would be an asset to NYY. #6 from the NYY alone were calling him personally to try to convince him to come to NY.
Lastly, the Braves who seem to really know Pitching wanted AJ desperately too!
I think he is a great find! Maybe I should have had a #7 & said Lohud diehard bloggers and said ½ of them don’t want him! LOL! Don’t be afraid!!! He is very good. He reminds me of Koufax & I posted something about that yesterday. The lights turned on for Koufax over a mechanical issue in his pitching deliver that changed his ERA from 3.5+ to 1 something! (See below)
There was this pitcher who pitched for 6 years in the majors but who had talent. There was always something going wrong. Too many walks. ERA’s hovering around 4.00 in a pitchers park with a great defense behind him. Some thought he’d never make it as a real star. Then at the ripe old age of 25 he made the All-Star team & even was named the All Star MVP, but faded the rest of the year. Lots of folks wanted him traded or wanted to give up on him. He always seemed to have nagging injuries. At the end of the very next year at age 27 someone figured out a flaw he had in his delivery that had been causing his fastballs to be erratic and his stats the next year were as follows:
IP-311
GS-40
CG-20
K-308
BB-58
ERA-1.88
He was named MVP & CY Young winner. So anything can happen! Oh, his name was Sandy Koufax!!! And he only pitched 3 more years and retired at the age of 30.
jennifer,
whenever ESPN airs a White Sox game, or the Yanks playing against them…I would love to see Guillen curising his lungs out whenever Betemit butchers a play.
CB
December 13th, 2008 at 3:55 pm
“Is there a way to calculate win shares for the Yankees with Tex-Gardner-Hughes vs. Pettitte-Cameron-Swisher?”
SJ,
There’s two basic issues going on in these kind of projections – the best estimate and the range of values those estimates could take. I’ll try to touch on both.
First the straight wins estimate. I’ll ball park these off the top of my head but they’ll be pretty good estimates. I’m going to do it in wins above replacement/the average player at the position as that’s a better method than win shares.
Tex-Gardner-Hughes:
To estimate Tex’s value the biggest issue is actually Nick Swisher’s value at 1b. I know that sounds strange but in your scenario Gardner stays at CF so I assume Swisher plays RF (your scenario assumes Damon cannot play CF regularly).
Right now if Swisher projects to be around 1 game better than a replacement level first baseman. Tex projects to be around 4 wins better than replacement.
So tex is a 3 win upgrade over Swisher. Now if Swisher fully rebounds to his 2006-2007 form it’s likely Swisher will be 2 games better than replacement so Tex would be around 2 games better than Swisher. But right now 3 games is safe.
If Swisher replaces Nady I’d call that roughly a draw in RF. Maybe Swisher is one win better than Nady?
Gardner projects to be 20 runs below an average offensive CF which is roughly a replacment level CF. Defensively he projects to be around 10 runs better. So I’d say Gardner is a -10 run player. That’s -1 win below replacement.
But Cameron projects to be at least 2 wins above replacement.
So Cameron could be 3 wins better than Gardner.
Hughes vs. Pettite. Pettite projects to be 3 wins above replacement next season though with his health I could see that being 2 wins.
I think Hughes if healthy would be at least 1 game better than replacment. Maybe 2. Let’s call Andy +1 on hughes.
Here’s the rough net calculation then:
Tex – 3 wins better than Swisher
Gardner – 3 wins worse than Cameron
Hughes – 1 win worse than Andy.
So the Tex-Gardner-Hughes alignment is one win worse than the Swisher-Camero-Pettite alignment.
Now we get to point two – the range of possible performance. A wider range means much more risk is involved.
Simply put it’s very, very difficult to accurately predict what Gardner or Hughes will do. I could see Gardner being worse than 10 I could see him being a -20 player.
Hughes has an even wider range than Gardner because his upside is higher. I could see him being as good as Andy in 2009 or considerably worse. So there’s a lot of risk there.
The thing that kills Tex’s value is playing Gardner in CF. If Gardner hits at replacement level it just wipes out most of Tex’s value.
This is why i’ve posted about this several times – the key to Tex’s value is whether or not Johnny Damon can play CF.
If Damon can play 120-130 games in CF then you really start talking about big advantages to tex. Because you move tex to first and then swisher to left and damon to CF.
If you could play that alignment then you’d have Tex’s bat essentially replacing Gardner’s in a strange way.
I’d say the Tex 1b Damon CF Swisher LF – Hughes P would be 4 wins better than Swisher-Cameron-Damon-Pettite.
But that all depends on whether you believe Damon can play a reasonable CF. There’s no way around that.
I’d personally give it a shot as a way to upgrade the offense.
I particularly think Damon in CF is much more viable because they now have a strike out staff that hitter won’t get any lift off of – Wang, AJ, and Joba are huge ground ball pitchers – all over 50% GB. CC is way up there as well – around 46-47% GB.
Next year the defense will be much better because Abreu won’t be there and there will be far fewer fly ball chances.
But the only way I can see Damon in CF working is to get a new 1b and move Swisher to LF. That’s the problem.
An outfield of Manny in LF or Dunn in LF with Damon in CF spells disaster. Don’t think that’s viable.
Swisher would have good range in LF. So he could help johnny cover ground in the OF especially at the stadium with its large LF.
So right now the best way to make the offense better would be to upgrade 1b and move Damon to CF. If you can do that you could get a huge boost in wins.
If damon can play CF for a year tex becomes a huge get. If he doesnt’ then Tex’s effect gets washed out.
But if damon can play CF if they could upgrade 1b with a player outside of tex that would also help a lot e.g. take a shot on trading for nick johnson.
The biggest key right now is to get Gardner out of the outfield and to not give him 500 AB. That could be a disaster – even with Tex.
—
Quite the post but this is all based on next year. Beyond that Tex will be a great get as Damon will be gone and Ajax in CF with Swish and Nady in OF.
Next year if Gardner in CF is not working out then they can move Damon to CF or more likely trade away a IPK for a better CF.
Nice work on this post though you do make some assumptions.
i agree than andy should settle and sign but…
pettitte can make a pretty good case that if you pay burnett $16M and offer lowe $15M that he should be paid his $16M. pettitte has more starts, wins, and IP than burnett over the past 4 seasons and more wins, starts, and IP than lowe the last 2 yrs.
i understand the yankees want to control thier payroll somewhat but if you compare andy to burnett and lowe, he deserves what he’s asking.
“Guillen is going to wear out the * bleep * sound card”
seriously, why the Sox isn’t giving the 3B position to Fields? No love for him?
Pujols is from Missouri
*K-Rod: “We’re Going To Be The Team To Beat”*
http://wcbstv.com/sports/mets......mp=AFC-New
(The sand lines have been drawn)
your point? his family is from the DR, so that makes him a DR right?
“However the inference that I draw is that if Melky wasn’t such a useless mook, the Yankees would be well advised to make a run at Tex”
Yes. This is largely accurate.
If Melky was even a league average CF – which last year at this time seemed reasonable – not even a great guy but league average then Tex is a strong get.
On the flip side if you believe Gardner is really much better than he projects – which I personally don’t – then Tex also has more value.
It’s an issue of how to allocate resources. The most efficient bang of for the buck the yankees can do right now is to upgrade CF because simply put that is by far their weakest position. By far.
That’s the only spot they look to be below league average.
Thanks for the breakdown, CB. That’s what I was looking for.
“Pujols is from Missouri”
Yeh that’s where he lived the majority of his lif after being borned in D.R. moving to NY then Missouri.
life*
pujols was born in santo domingo, P.R. and moved to new york city at age 16. the family hated new york and fled to independance, missouri, right outside of kansas city. (i believe Royals Stadium is in independance.
k-rod “Of course, we’re going to try to win the division. Of course, we’re going to be the front-runner. Of course, we’re going to be the team to beat,” he said Saturday.
“pujols was born in santo domingo, P.R. and moved to new york city at age 16. the family hated new york”
His family didn’t hate NY he saw a man get murdered as a kid in his neighborhood his grandma rather than have him living in a hard neighborhood decided w/ his parents to move to a safer place.
LF: Damon L
SS: Jeter R
1B: Johnson L
3B: Rodriguez R
DH: Matsui L
C: Posada S
2B: Cano L
RF: Nady R
LF: Swisher S
good?
The Mets only did a telephone conference? This for their A+ signing of the off season. WOW!
“but this is all based on next year. Beyond that Tex will be a great get as Damon will be gone and Ajax in CF with Swish and Nady in OF.”
Well yes and no. I was specifically answering the question in regards to next year only.
Past that however you really have to start thinking about the opportunity cost tex’s long term deal incurs – those are opportunity costs all long term deal invoke.
Perhaps signing tex this year will cause them to pass on Matt Holliday next year?
You assume Jackson is ready to start in CF next year. I don’t at all and I follow their system very closely.
Past this year you are opening up numerous different pathways the team could take many of which wouldn’t necessarily make Tex the right move.
Ultimately tex’s value is limited by the fact that he plays 1b – a position that many players with very good bats can play.
Once you put big money into 1b you lock yourself in.
If tex played any other position – even LF he’d be much more valuable to the team, particularly because past this year it’s outfielder they are going to need desperately.
And sure there were a lot of assumptions there but that’s what making estimates and planning for future allocation of resources always involves.
CB
As Yogi said, “How can you think & hit at the same time?”!
Hitters hit, Pitchers pitch and statistics lie!
What I tried to say in an earlier post is the players know best who is likely to succeed and who isn’t. They know the details, the character, the skills and more. Not unlike the stock market where I could tell you that you should have bought ENRON stock several years ago, the FA are like that. Swisher may have a breakout year. Same with Cano. Years ago Micky Mantle was about to be sent down (and was) to the minors to get tweaked. Well he had tasted success, but others had adjusted to him and made him look awful. So they sent him down and he came back having adjusted. He was ready & the rest is history.
Cano & AJ have adjusted. Now we need to see if it is long-term or not. The players & management seem to stake $$M on it they have. That is good enough for me.
Manny, Dunn, Fielder or Berkman. Make it happen, people.
“team to beat? Um how? The Phillies are the team to beat. They won the WS, they won the the Nl East. Just as the Rays are still the team to beat, the did after all win the Al east. However i am NOT scared of them. I think they just got lucky.”
That’s K-Rod flashing his sack to NY and the NL.
SJ,
No problem. There are better ways to do it but that’s a ball park.
It really gets down to whether or not Johnny Damon can play an even passable CF.
What are your thoughts on that?
I get the sense the organization doesn’t think so – that they’re worried about him getting injured.
But if he could with Gardner spelling him late in games, big parks and against teams that run – then the potential gain is enormous.
Then you could efficiently allocate the marginal dollars towards upgrading from Swisher to Tex rather than needing to use them to upgrade Gardner to Cameron.
Brandon (SHOW SHEETS THE MONEEEEEY !, CC & AJ are Yankees!)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
December 13th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
K-Rod: “We’re Going To Be The Team To Beat”
http://wcbstv.com/sports/mets......mp=AFC-New
(The sand lines have been drawn)
—
He’s right they are thee team to beat and we will be the team to beat them. The Phillies may still beat them too.
“and then AJ was DFA’d like Livan too, right?
Are you suggesting that the free market has been exposed here?”
nick in sf-
the fact is burnett pitched for half a year in 2008 at no better record than someone as you said who was DFA’d.
i think cashman was the one exposed here by needing to take this kind of gamble.
don’t get me wrong, i hope the yankees get good aj. he was lights out the second half.
i just think people need to be realistic. the yankees are not likely to get consistency out of burnett.
… but if he can channel it for big games and the playoffs as some have said , he’ll be worth every penny. that said. i would not have made this deal at this time for this amount of money.
How come Swish is not talked about for CF. He played 80 something games there last year. Was he that bad?
“He’s right they are thee team to beat and we will be the team to beat them. The Phillies may still beat them too.”
The Marlins may still beat them too. Oh yeh and this year going into Shea, CC, Wang, Burnett or Joba. Lets DO THIS !
excuse me S…ti field *
“Hitters hit, Pitchers pitch and statistics lie!”
People say this sort of thing all the time. I’m not one to say statistics tell the entire picture.
But ever since anyone started using numbers in any way this has been the criticism – statistics lie.
Do you know who was killed for being one of the first innovators to use any statistics in baseball? Just ripped apart for it by the players and media?
Casey Stengel.
Stengel invented the notion of platooning players. And he did that based on his observation that left handed hitters are less likely to get a hit off a left handed pitcher and vice versa for right handers.
That’s simply an application of statistics and probability to baseball.
People thought he was crazy for doing it because, well, statistics “lie.”
Ed, Who’s in CF? LF looks crowded!
Brandon,
you know what could be good? the performance that Wang and CC gave when Wang outdueled CC in a 1 run game and 10 Ks each. Burnett’s performance when he struck out the Yanks 13x. If all 3 of them do that 34 times, then we are definitely in good shape. that would seriously be awesome!
..of course Joba being Joba.
j2,
oops. meant to put Damon in CF, LOL..
CB,
I think Damon’s days as a fulltime CF are over.
That’s probably why they are leading toward bringing in Cameron and re-signing Pettitte to round out the team.
That also gives them the flexibility to go after Matt Holliday next off-season.
damon isnt an everyday cf anymore. especially not if you want to get the most out of him offensivly.
swisher is only a cf if thats the only place you have to put him. he’s really a 1Bman and if you cant put him there, he’d be a better corner OFer.
It looks like we’ll get Cameron, but if we didn’t, it certainly would be interesting.
If Matsui can play left field and have his knees hold up, you could run combinations of Matsui/Damon/Gardner/Nady/Swisher out there. Not premium defenders but certainly passable.
Ok let me try again.
CB,
who would project to be a better CF next year Damon, Gardner, or Swish?
Yanks should go sign Smoltz to a one year deal worth the around 8-10 mil and forget the Cameron deal and go get TEX.We are losing Matsui’s $$ next year and Damons so TEX $$ would in a way only affect us this year and next year all we would have to worry bout is replacing Damon because Swish could play LF next year
CB
December 13th, 2008 at 4:17 pm
“but this is all based on next year. Beyond that Tex will be a great get as Damon will be gone and Ajax in CF with Swish and Nady in OF.”
Well yes and no. I was specifically answering the question in regards to next year only.
Past that however you really have to start thinking about the opportunity cost tex’s long term deal incurs – those are opportunity costs all long term deal invoke.
Perhaps signing tex this year will cause them to pass on Matt Holliday next year?
You assume Jackson is ready to start in CF next year. I don’t at all and I follow their system very closely.
Past this year you are opening up numerous different pathways the team could take many of which wouldn’t necessarily make Tex the right move.
Ultimately tex’s value is limited by the fact that he plays 1b – a position that many players with very good bats can play.
Once you put big money into 1b you lock yourself in.
If tex played any other position – even LF he’d be much more valuable to the team, particularly because past this year it’s outfielder they are going to need desperately.
—-
Cb, you are making too much sense stop it you are ruining my Tex fantasy. Can I push Manny on you? We do need a bat in the middle of the line up and I would rather Tex long term. The thing that scares me is thst Swisher may not be what we hope just like we don’t know if Melk or Gard would be better than they have shown. They thought enough of Melk last year to not include him and others for Santana.
Is it possible that Melk/Gard could suffice?
I guess we will know those answers in the next few days.
But for now, stop being so analytical and crashing my fantasy.
Pretty soon, we’ll have to address the catcher position. Jorge’s legs should be nice and fresh. I don’t worry about his hitting too much, so all we need is his throwing arm to be back to normal. Did he play any 1B last year? Because I’d like to see him play 1B on days he’s not catching, in order to get his bat in the lineup. I know he hates it, but I think he’ll want to play everyday.
Jorge will also have the added challenge of working with at least 2 new starters. Odds on which one’s the first to ask for Molina on his pitching days? I kid, I kid.
“Vinny, when you put it that way it sounds like an indictment of Burnett’s character.
“My starts against the O’s don’t matter, but games against the Sox do?”
when you’re not a team named the Yankees, Redsox (and this past year Tampa), in a way it is like this in Toronto. No?
seemingly, he has the ability to turn it on or off. As a pitcher for the Yankees, this may not be a negative. Instead of Kenny Rogers.
CB
Thanks for the response. But statistics lie came long before Casey! LOL! Mark Twain is often given credit for it from around 1907 when he said, “Lies, damned lies, and statistics”.
We all use statistics. But judgement should not be based on it entirely or at all. My note on Koufax would have scared a lot of people off when he was 6 or 7 years into his Major League career statistically. He was erractic, high ERA (for then), and he walked a lot of people. He also had miscellaneous injuries that seemed to occur (but he was in that tough it out mentality era then) but he still pitched. He was almost cut and released several times as well as almost traded. Then he changed. Statistics don’t tell you the change part. (Good or Bad.)
Statistically, it was a certainty to buy ENRON before its collapse. LOL! But it wasn’t prudent. Statistically no one would have bought into Bill Gates, but thanks to a family camping trip by his competitor, IBM selected him and the rest is history.
“That’s probably why they are leading toward bringing in Cameron and re-signing Pettitte to round out the team.
That also gives them the flexibility to go after Matt Holliday next off-season.”
I agree. All signs point to this as the most likely scenario.
Part of the fan in me is attracted to playing Damon in CF but my head tells me that’s not viable any longer.
I think they’ve already decided that they would rather have Matt Holliday in the OF than to have Tex playing 1b.
Much of what I think this suggests is that their days of playing guys out of position are over.
They are not going to sacrifice defense anymore.
I was very struck with Cash’s response to Abreu. How he wanted nothing to do with him.
That’s all about Cashman being smart enough to know that defense matters a lot. I’m sure he’s had scouts tell him tha Abreu is terrible out there and I’m sure he’s looked at the numbers on abreu’s defense – which are not only uniformly bad – but eye opening as well.
Measuring defense has a lot of holes in it. But when 5-6 different ways of measuring it all tell you the same thing – Abreu is horrible. That’s very telling.
I think that’s why the traded for Nady. To afford themselves the opportunity of parting ways with abreu and his defense.
I think the yanks got very lucky Holliday got traded to Oakland. This will give them a clear sense of who he is as a hitter outside of altitude and will also likely depress his price next year on the market as that stadium depresses his value more than an average park.
Just like last year they were setting up for CC this year. These moves make me think they are already lining up to sign Holliday next year.
They’d rather have the OF than the 1b.
I know from my fan perspective I can actually live with Damon in CF as long Girardi utilizes Gardner as the late inning defensive replacement.
Damon has no arm, but the staff we’re assembling is going to K more guys than ever so I’m sure that somehow balances itself out.
I don’t, however, love the idea of Texeira for 10 years here. If I’m not mistaken, wasn’t he a “bad back” kind of guy and hit the DL a few times for back issues.
After watching what happened to Donnie Baseball in his early 30′s with back issues, I’d be a little scared of signing Tex that long.
I don’t know if Boras would ever do it, but I like the idea of the Yankees offering Tex a similar opt out they did to CC. Boras would drool at opting out and renegotiating and having that option to use as a hammer in 3-4 years.
All things equal if the Yanks theoretically put up 8/160 or 8/168 w/a 4th year opt out for Tex I wonder if that would land a guy who purportedly has a bit of an east coast bias.
Above all though, I want the Yankees to drive the price up as high as they can on this guy. This happens to this team constantly in free agent and trade negotiations and it’s about time we make Boston or Anaheim severely overpay for someone they want that bad.
If Tex wants to be a Yankee though I think there’s a deal to be made.
I know Pete ignores this aspect, but the Yankees have Damon and Matstui (30 million) off the books next season. They can afford to take the salary hit this year on Tex if they deem him the final piece knowing all that money is coming off the books.
I heard the only thing that is holding up the Cameron deal besides the money, is having the Brewers include another player. Besides our dream of trading for Ryan Braun and Yovani Gallardo , who do we want from the Brew Crew?
NO to Bill Hall! He’s a poor man verison of Wilson Betemit.
“Do you know who was killed for being one of the first innovators to use any statistics in baseball? Just ripped apart for it by the players and media?
Casey Stengel.”
I just picked up Goldman’s book on Casey.
I’ve been busy working today, and around the house. Just catching up now during a break.
For what it’s worth, I think that getting Tex, while no doubt very nice, is more luxury than need. I agree with several of the posters, above and previously, that the black hole that was CF last season cannot be allowed to continue. Whether Melky or Brett, it was a automatic out (and I’m rooting for Brett, but you have to be realistic). Damon, at this point in his career, cannot be a FT centerfielder. He can fill in there once in a while, but no more than that.
Maybe the answer is Matt Holliday in LF next year (I want to see him produce away from Coors’ first), with Austin Jackson in CF. But, that’s next year.
We can’t go with a black hole in CF. Not and expect to win in the post-season.
Sorry I’m not more eloquent like CB, or others on this blog. All I know is taken from the many games that I’ve watched. And right now, Mike Cameron is looking awfully good.
Back to work.
“Yanks should go sign Smoltz to a one year deal worth the around 8-10″
then you don’t know our minor league system.
gardener would be the best defensivly but can he hit enough to stay in an A.L. East lineup? swisher would probably be the next-best choice defensivly, but he has never played a full season of CF, so who knows how he’d hold up (he just turned 28) damon will give you diminished returns with every consecutive start in CF, but isnt horrible when rested. however, damon is an above average LF
matsui as the everyday LF is courting disaster. DH him and maximize the return by keeping him as healthy as possible.
Is there some formula that factors in age?
As in, the potential in decline of an aging player relative to his production.
Or does one assume:
1). What hasn’t occurred can never occur
2). What has happened in the past will continue to happen.
OR in other terms:
1). Gardner, though 24, can never improve offensively. Cabrera, though 24, can never improve offensively. (This may, or may not, prove true).
2). Cameron, who will be 36 for the entire 2009 season, will produce at the same rate he has always produced. (This may, or may not, be true).
CB
I do enjoy your posts!!! I don’t always agree with them, but I do appreciate you for them!
“We all use statistics. But judgement should not be based on it entirely or at all. My note on Koufax would have scared a lot of people off when he was 6 or 7 years into his Major League career statistically.”
Very true. And that quote was first said by Twain I believe.
I honestly don’t think in any way statistics should determine decisions. They should simply inform them. There’s a difference.
Pitchers are the great example of this. Anyone who understand anything about statistics knows that pitchers are unbelievably difficult to project because they are prone towards making “non-linear gains.” That’s a statistical way of saying they can suddenly get much better fast (learn new pitch) or just fall apart (blow out elbow).
The casey stengel example is relevant to baseball. Casey was one of the major innovators in the use of statistics in baseball and people thought he was an idiot for doing that when he did.
I think the Yanks like Holliday however, dont be surprised if OAK uses him during the trade deadline and trades him to some1 and they want a window to sign him to an long-term deal..If it does make it to free agency next year and has a normal year by his standards yes the Yanks will be on him
Great stuff CB…I also agree that Damon’s day in center is a vision of the past……Gardner is a late inning defensive replacement as a pinch-runner…..I have to think that Cashman has a # 3 hitter in mind, but who ???? The only plausible player in Matsui, very good hitter if can bounce back…But that’s only for next season, then what ??? I di like a LH hitter in the 3 hole though…..
“Brandon,
you know what could be good? the performance that Wang and CC gave when Wang outdueled CC in a 1 run game and 10 Ks each. Burnett’s performance when he struck out the Yanks 13x. If all 3 of them do that 34 times, then we are definitely in good shape. that would seriously be awesome!”
I would hope so.
I’m fairly certain the ball is in Andy’s court at the moment. He is just mulling that 10 million. In my opinion we are overpaying for a guy with a 4 and a half ERA who will only be our 4th starter.
Vinny u make no sense I know are minor league system and you want Andy back and it would be only for 1 year so whats the difference if we sign Andy to a 1 yr deal or Smoltz?? please tell me
“NO to Bill Hall! He’s a poor man verison of Wilson Betemit.”
Say that when he has a pink bat go ahead I dear ya
dare* damn I’m playing like Vince Carter tonight. I’ll be back later.
arod bats third, matsui dh’s at cleanup.
“Can I push Manny on you? We do need a bat in the middle of the line up and I would rather Tex long term. The thing that scares me is thst Swisher may not be what we hope just like we don’t know if Melk or Gard would be better than they have shown.”
Something I think yankees fans and the media are not appreciating enough right now is that the reason why the offense needs to be upgraded isn’t due to production. This offense assembled looks like it will score 60 runs more than last year’s squad.
They need to bolster the offense to hedge against risk.
You’re righ – Swisher migh not bouce back. Cano might not. Posada and Matsui might not.
It’s unlikely all will fizzle but on the flip side it’s very unlikely that all will work out.
Another bat hedges against all those ifs.
It’s very tough to fit manny into this current team without trading someone.
He’s just terrible in the field and they really can’t afford that.
And is he so much better than Matsui at DH that it’s worth the risk of manny being manny?
Tough decision.
bodhisattva
Very true! Statistics lie.
In regards to Casey using statistics, he used current ones! Last week, last month & today. He didn’t project on them. He sent Micky Mantle down to the minors after Mick had a great year. He was a problem solver more than a statistician.
He had a wealth of talent on his teams & he realized that LH hit RHP better & vice vera. He also fielded teams that were strong up the middle on defense. (C, 2B, SS & CF)
Brandon,
he 2 big hits twice right? LOL, as for Carter that was worse game last night.
update >>>>
tough decision? when the possibility of manny blowing up the team just to amuse his ego looming as an added bonus?
not a tough decision at all…
“who would project to be a better CF next year Damon, Gardner, or Swish?”
Straight number it would be Damon. But the problem with the numbers is that the range of potential production with each of these guys in CF is huge.
Damon plays CF and he just wears down and doesn’t produce at the plate. Big problem.
Swisher hates playing CF and doesn’t play well defensively.
Gardner – potential black hole and could make out 70% of the time.
They need another CF from outside the organization. There’s no way around it.
“Is there some formula that factors in age?”
Absolutely. All projection systems factor in age.
One rule of thumb is that you can factor in 0.25 fewer wins per year the player ages once he gets past his prime.
The reason why I call cameron a two win player next year instead of 2.5 is related to factoring his age and being conservative.
Benjamin Disraeli said “Lies, damned lies….”
Twain quoted him.
Thanks CB.
I heard on the radio today “statistics are like bikinis, they show a lot but not everything.”
CB
I understand and agree somewhat.
I also would love to have Manny over Tex, because Manny is a better hitter. But I don’t really care about another teams problem child. Especially Boston. Manny didn’t get the credit he deserved there & ESPN & Boston fans have ripped him since he left.
All stars have egos. The Yanks have had success with those egos in the past. Reggie Jackson, Strawberry, Kingman, Billy Martin, Ponson even to a degree, and others. Manny has a work ethic to hitting that is impeccable. He even works at defense, albeit with much less success. He has a lot of pride and he took the brunt of Boston’s collapse and little of the rewards for success in a renownly racially biased town. Boston could afford $50M+ to talk to Dice-K, but would talk with Manny about an extension. He opted out informally! LOL! The Dodgers became a +8 game swing from when he got there. He was awesome! Jacksonesque! Mantlesque!
Tarheelyank
I really like that one!
“The Dodgers became a +8 game swing from when he got there. He was awesome! Jacksonesque! Mantlesque!”
I was talking to Pat M about this the other day. But Manny’s line after going to the Dodgers reminded me a great deal of Ted Williamns season in 1941.
Now Williams did it for the whole season so there’s no comparison.
But that’s what Manny was like once he got to LA – Ted Williams 1941. And that’s not an exaggeration.
Thanks Tom!
I didn’t know that! I always credited it to Twain.
CB
I read your post the other day about Williams & I thought it was a great post!
Boston, being the finicky city they are tried to trade Williams to the Yankees for Dimagio! They did pull back their offer once the Yankees were interested.
Manny is focused and he really scares the Red Sox! I know I hated to hear he was coming to bat or about to against the Yankees. No matter what NYY pitched him he hit it on a regular basis.
My only concern with this much talent on the Yankees is Girardi! I don’t think he is a good Coach at all! He probably will become one, but I hate to see NY have to go thru his growing pains & macho control issues.
Brandon (SHOW SHEETS THE MONEEEEEY !, CC & AJ are Yankees!)…”Don’t trade Robi !”
December 13th, 2008 at 4:10 pm
K-Rod: “We’re Going To Be The Team To Beat”
http://wcbstv.com/sports/mets......mp=AFC-New
(The sand lines have been drawn)
Our town, our time?
RayVTNC
There is a new post up.
Offer Texiera $4 mil for 2 years. If he is a true Yankee he’ll take it!
One problem with many of the stats people now invoke like gospel is they fail to capture the importance of speed when a single run is needed. Gardner can hit .250 but when a gaim is on the line and he is on first base he is far more likely to produce that run than some guy sporting a gaudy .860 OPS.
Of course, the question with Gardner is whether he’ll hurt you so much with his bat in lesser moments that his occasional value in producing a single must-needed run is overwhelmed.
But that’s why I’d like to see what Gardner can do playing at least semi-regularly. It may be that he is an overall minus as a full-time player. However, I have no doubt that his impact as just a part-time player would be huge. And I think we saw that last year when he stole I think 12 out of 13 and several of those steals helped to win games.
It’s also worth noting that speed was devalued in the steroids era. I believe it will become more obviously important as players (hopefully) return to more unadulterated normality of size and strength (I’m not talking about you, CC). I don’t mean to suggest power or walks or OBP are unimportant. But I take OPS with a huge grain of salt. I believe in all the elements of small ball.
Trendy statistical analysis has also sullied the evaluation of pitchers. Last winter many on this board were ready to give up on Bruney becuase of his walks. I thought this was really foolish. The guy didn’t give up hits. And he didn’t give up walks. ANd contrary to what we keep hearing walks are simply NOT as damaging as hits. I offer the example of a single with a man on first as opposed to a wlk. THere is simply no comparison of first and second (none or one outs) and first and third. One of the problems the Yankees have had in recent years seems to be that they have lots of guys who don’t go first to third with regularity. That leaves them with first and second. And we all know what A=Rod does in those spots.
I am glad at least that they seem to see Gardner as more worth keeping than Melky. But I also think Melky is going to bust out of all the statistical formulas this year. Guys who can play in the big leasgues at 21 and 22 don’t often flame out totally before they reach 25. If he applies any sort of work ethic, he could still be a decent player. I would say .280-.300 with somewhere between 12 and 18 HRs.
Sorry for the tirade– guess i just got carried away.
One problem with many of the stats people now invoke like gospel is they fail to capture the importance of speed when a single run is needed. Gardner can hit .250 but when a gaim is on the line and he is on first base he is far more likely to produce that run than some guy sporting a gaudy .860 OPS.
Of course, the question with Gardner is whether he’ll hurt you so much with his bat in lesser moments that his occasional value in producing a single must-needed run is overwhelmed.
But that’s why I’d like to see what Gardner can do playing at least semi-regularly. It may be that he is an overall minus as a full-time player. However, I have no doubt that his impact as just a part-time player would be huge. And I think we saw that last year when he stole I think 12 out of 13 and several of those steals helped to win games.
It’s also worth noting that speed was devalued in the steroids era. I believe it will become more obviously important as players (hopefully) return to more unadulterated normality of size and strength (I’m not talking about you, CC). I don’t mean to suggest power or walks or OBP are unimportant. But I take OPS with a huge grain of salt. I believe in all the elements of small ball.
Trendy statistical analysis has also sullied the evaluation of pitchers. Last winter many on this board were ready to give up on Bruney becuase of his walks. I thought this was really foolish. The guy didn’t give up hits. And he didn’t give up walks. ANd contrary to what we keep hearing walks are simply NOT as damaging as hits. I offer the example of a single with a man on first as opposed to a wlk. THere is simply no comparison of first and second (none or one outs) and first and third. One of the problems the Yankees have had in recent years seems to be that they have lots of guys who don’t go first to third with regularity. That leaves them with first and second. And we all know what A=Rod does in those spots.
I am glad at least that they seem to see Gardner as more worth keeping than Melky. But I also think Melky is going to bust out of all the statistical formulas this year. Guys who can play in the big leasgues at 21 and 22 don’t often flame out totally before they reach 25. If he applies any sort of work ethic, he could still be a decent player. I would say .280-.300 with somewhere between 12 and 18 HRs.
Sorry for the tirade– guess i just got carried away.
Should have said on Bruney: He didn’t give up hits. And he didn’t give up home runs
To rb15 and Trisha thanks for the words of wisdom.
Trisha– I have this habit of singing my favorite song “Alone in my principles” so I don’t think chasing my dream (despite the poor check) is going to bring anything but good for me and everyone else. For better or worse I think I have a calling and if I didn’t follow it I’d die a disappointed old man.
To rb15 and Trisha thanks for the words of wisdom.
Trisha—I have this habit of singing my favorite song “Alone in my principles” so I don’t think chasing my dream (despite the poor check) is going to bring anything but good for me and everyone else. For better or worse I think I have a calling and if I didn’t follow it I’d die a disappointed old man.
Hey CB, I don’t have a problem with upgrading CF but I just want it all.
Tex to me is a long term 1B solution which is something we have always had at least since Donnie was here.
Go rework your numbers and find out who out of Matsui,Nady, Swisher could be traded to make both Cam and Tex fit.
While doing it keep in mind that money is no object this year as we move into new stadium and factor in that Damon,Matsui and Nady would come off the books next year.
Time to negotiate and get a deal done.
It would be good to hear excellent reports on Matsui’s knees. His clutch bat provides a key to 2009.
RayVTNC
December 13th, 2008 at 4:53 pm
bodhisattva
Very true! Statistics lie.
In regards to Casey using statistics, he used current ones! Last week, last month & today. He didn’t project on them. He sent Micky Mantle down to the minors after Mick had a great year. He was a problem solver more than a statistician.
He had a wealth of talent on his teams & he realized that LH hit RHP better & vice vera. He also fielded teams that were strong up the middle on defense. (C, 2B, SS & CF)
————
They are useful and fun up to a point, but just don’t uncritically accept them or mistake them for truth; they reveal patterns that one draws conclusions from based on repetition.
Once the pattern revolts enough to begin a new one, you have to rely on that to predict outcomes which the original pattern failed to anticipate, because it takes for granted that:
1). What hasn’t happened, never will
2). What has happened, will always hold true.