Of fathers and money
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jan 07, 2009 
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Vacation continues for your friendly neighborhood beat writer. But Journal New columnist Sam Borden attended the Mark Teixeira coronation yesterday. He was gracious enough to pass along this entry for the blog:
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After almost three hours at Yankee Stadium yesterday, two things stood out to me as I left:
1. Hal Steinbrenner is beginning to sound a lot like his dad.
2. The Yankees are basically done spending this winter, so forget about Manny Ramirez.
The first point was clear right from the beginning, when Hal – who is clearly the only Steinbrenner that matters right about now – repeatedly mentioned how the Yankees are committed to, basically, spending a ton of money because “the fans deserve it.” Referencing the fans was a big thing with George Steinbrenner, and as Hal brought it up over and over, it was hard not to imagine his father doing the same thing.
Obviously Hal (and Randy Levine and Lonn Trost and other officials) were upset about remarks made by people around baseball regarding their haul of players this winter. “”We had about $80 million come off (the payroll),” Hal said. “So we have some money to spend, and we’re going to reinvest it. That’s going to continue, whether people like it or not. That’s for the fans. They deserve the best team we can put out there.”
Hal also said that if owners don’t like it, “I’m not going to lose any sleep about it.” Very George-ish, too.
As for the second point, listen to what Brian Cashman said about the state of the current payroll, which is currently projected to be slightly below last year’s mark: “We’re going to come in lower. … The decisions we made this winter would compromise my ability to be aggressive in the free agent market (going forward). Let’s leave it at that.”
In other words, don’t expect another $20 million a year signing.
Cashman wouldn’t bite on where he expects the Yankees latest signing, Mark Teixeira, to bat in the 2009 lineup, and Joe Girardi said he had some preliminary thoughts but wouldn’t reveal them. If you’ve got an opinion on how the Yanks lineup should look, click over to the Faceoff blog, where Rick Carpiniello and I are debating that exact question (hint: Jeter bats second in my lineup. Shocking, I know).
————
Thanks to Sam. Go check out the debate and Carp are having. Sam will have another guest post later today.
Pete, thanks for continuing the updates. Enjoy what’s left of your vacation!
Always enjoy Sam Borden’s insights. Thanks Pete!!
We need a countdown clock to Pitchers and Catchers somewhere on your blog!! Cant wait for this season to get started!!
This has the potential to be a fun little argument:
http://faceoff.lohudblogs.com/.....omment-325
Hal is the new George.
Thanks Sam
So we have some money to spend, and we’re going to reinvest it. That’s going to continue, whether people like it or not. That’s for the fans. They deserve the best team we can put out there.”
Why among other reasons I’m a Yankee fan. Even when we don’t win, it isn’t often if ever due to lack of investment.
Hal’s got the attitude I like. I think we need more people in this world with the attitude. No more pansies.
I’m 100% Serious, too.
Nady vs. Swisher – I think Swish has more upside as a corner outfielder. Thoughts?
I can tell you the answer already, Teixiera will bat third and A-Rod will bat cleanup.
Both Torre and Girardi have always been big proponents of alternating righty-lefty bats, even to a fault like last season.
Perfect example, Girardi’s insistence on letting a struggling Giambi behind A-Rod last season (after Matsui went down) even though Nady was tearing the cover off the ball.
Thanks Sam.
I’d rather be a fan of a team whose ownership is continually willing to invest in their product (even if the investments are on occasion misguided) than a fan of a team whose owner simply doesn’t care.
(Unless you’re the Devils and your GM is Lou Lamoriello. Then I’m okay with it.)
Atta boy, Hal.
Good for us and a higher tide floats all boats.
i agree with the line-up Pete posted over there…
Not sure if it’s been commented on here yet, but Ricky will not be unanimous
http://homerderby.com/archives/2247
sigh…
Consider A-Rod 3rd and Tex 4th.
The HERD just said Hughes is a bust, is this kidding me. Hes 22 years old and hes calling him a BUST. I think this guy just wants ratings. Didnt know he was able to tell the future. What a joke. Gotta be kidding me how bad people just wanna jump all over the YANKS, if Hughes was on another team this guy would say that hes so talented and that hes only 22 give him time
Hal Steinbrenner is becoming his father’s son before the eyes of Yankee fans minus the bluster.
He seems to think decisions out more thoroughly and doesn’t seem to crave the back pages of the tabloids. All things point to he and Cashman on the same page.
If Hughes is a “bust”, so is Clay Buchholz.
Funny how that’s never discussed on NESN2, otherwise known as ESPN.
You know the Yankees must be doing something right because the whining from Red Sox fans, and their shills in the media, are at an all-time high.
saucY,
Thanks for posting that link. Corky Simpson’s “reasoning” for his votes is so mind-boggingly crazy that I don’t know where to begin. I think the kicker for me was lumping Henderson into a group of miscellaneous players like Dan Plesac. Based on the people Simpson actually voted for, I think he drew eight names out of a hat.
I guess the only good thing about Simpson’s failure to vote for Henderson was that he didn’t provide a holier-than-thou justification for preventing Henderson from getting a unanimous vote. That drives me nuts. Yes, it would be a little odd if Rickey Henderson became the first unanimous election to the HOF. But just because some people were too stupid to vote for Ruth, Mays, and Ripken doesn’t mean there’s a good reason not to vote for Henderson.
The “Herd” has probably never seen Hughes throw a pitch.
Why do people listen to these ESPN clowns and give any credibility to their uninformed drivel?
Pete,
OT, but while you are on vacation, perhaps you would like to put in a bid to buy Springstein’s personal Harley Davidson.
https://auction01.charitybuzz.com/secure/viewItemDetail.do?auction_item_id=79033&source=email_010709
Rebecca,
A close friend of mine is an avid Orioles fan (god bless his little heart) and he is very close to dropping baseball altogether until Angelos dies. He is a proponent for a salary cap, and not for the normal reason of the big, bad Yankees buy all the players and outspend everyone, but because he wants the Orioles to be forced to invest in their team so they can become contenders via the salary cap floor. For him, his team is out of the race by the all-star break every year. How sad.
Donnie Baseball, you weren’t here last year, were you….
I was looking at Cot’s last night, and I thought this was interesting:
Yes, Sabathia is earning $23M this year. But in 2009, he’s getting $9M of that in the form of bonuses (3 payments) and only $14M of that is salary.
I don’t know for sure, but if bonuses do not count towards the salary totals they are using, then the Yanks cut $9M from the payroll by smartly structuring the contract.
Tex’s deal is similar for the first 2 years, in that he’s basically earning $22.5M per season, but the salary for 2009 and 2010 are only $20M has he received the other $5M in bonus money.
“The HERD just said Hughes is a bust, is this kidding me. Hes 22 years old and hes calling him a BUST. I think this guy just wants ratings.”
Ratings? Hey, I think you’re on to something!
Which of the following statements do you think garners a more passionate reaction from listeners and fans:
1. Hughes has been a disappointment so far, but still shows great potential and is only 22. The Yankees clearly haven’t given up on him, and with a combination of smart usage and luck he could still mature into a very good pitcher (although no pitching prospect can be a sure thing).
2. Hughes is a bust and will never be any good.
Colin Cowherd has never provided insightful baseball analysis in his career.
Buchholz is also 2 years older than hughes,25 in august so he doesn’t have as much time to get it together.
you start getting near 25 yrs old & still struggling teams start giving up on you.
Damon, Jeter, Tex. Arod, Matsui, Jorgie, Swisher,Cano and centerfield
The lineup in that link looked pretty good:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Nady RF
Cano 2B
Gardner CF
Maybe Nady/Cano could be interchangeable. But the situation I’d be interested in experimenting with a key change to that would be if Cano hits to his ability, meaning consistently over .300. Let’s say for example he’s hitting something like .320 and showing patience at the plate, then maybe it’s worth moving him to 3rd and flip-flopping A-Rod & Teixiera behind him:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Cano 2B
Rodriguez 3B
Teixiera 1B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Nady RF
Gardner CF
Otherwise that first lineup looks pretty good.
Bru: Phil Coke was 25 last season.
I’m not disagreeing with you, just pointing out something I find interesting.
kingcora
January 7th, 2009 at 12:30 pm
Damon, Jeter, Tex. Arod, Matsui, Jorgie, Swisher,Cano and centerfield
———
Posada should hit 5th against lefties or Arod will never see a strike. This is one of the reasons I want Manny in this spot.
Matsui 5th against righties.
This i
Rebecca I was here last year. I was HITMAN 23 why? I just think its funny. Im pretty sure Beckett wasnt the healthy last year was he. Bucholtz wasnt the NEXT was he?? Dice K couldnt pass the 5th and yet every1 is all over the YANKS. What ever team wouldve gotten CC,AJ,and TEX ESPN and others wouldve said how much that team improved them selfs
Jeremy I agree thats my point this clown makses these statements without anything to back him up, he said how CC was good but over worked,AJ is always on the DL, Wang off an major injury,JOBA mascarding around like a SP while hes a closer and then all he said was PHIL HUGHES is a BUST..
The lineup in that link looked pretty good:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Nady RF
Cano 2B
Gardner CF
Maybe Nady/Cano could be interchangeable. But the situation I’d be interested in experimenting with a key change to that would be if Cano hits to his ability, meaning consistently over .300. Let’s say for example he’s hitting something like .320 and showing patience at the plate, then maybe it’s worth moving him to 3rd and flip-flopping A-Rod & Teixiera behind him:
Damon LF
Jeter SS
Cano 2B
Rodriguez 3B
Teixiera 1B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Nady RF
Gardner CF
——
So we traded for Swisher who has 30 HR potential and is a switch hitter and we are going to sit him on the bench?
Or he will platoon with Nady who is in his walk year and playing for a contract?
You guys are being naive if you don’t think Cash has more up his sleeve.
Donnie Baseball: Ah, I misread your post. My apologies.
sam is a great writer, color me impressed
Rebecca
agree but coke has not proven much yet & wen’t to the pen wich shows a smaller sample.a lot of players benefit from going to the pen(mo).
i didn’t mean it being in stone but if you have a prospect at 20 yrs old or so & all of a sudden he is 25 yrs old would you feel good about him if he was struggling???
everybody in the world gave up on kennedy already.if hughes is struggling in 3 yrs would you have much faith in him if he has innings under his belt???
hughes does not have many innings at all compared to buchholz.
DB23 — I think she may have just been alluding to the fact that last year pretty much every game somebody on the board would proclaim they see Hughes is done and that he doesn’t have major league stuff. If i’m putting words in your mouth Rebecca, apologies.
On a happier note http://weblogs.newsday.com/spo.....tingly.jpg
We are lucky as Yankee fans to have an owner(now Hal) who will spend money to win. I hope we will invest a bit more in another starter without having to trade an Outfielder simply for salary space.
No problem.. I understand..
Great post here and very interesting discussion in the Faceoff link. The school that says to bat your best hitter 3rd would seem to indicate that A-Rod should hit there, but you’ve also gotta consider the next 3rd of the order. Carpinello makes a great point that batting Teix 4th means you potentially have 3 lefties in a row. I’ve always liked the Yanks having good R-L balance throughout their lineup and would like to see that element remain.
Ultimately though, I think the Yanks should try the lineup both ways (Teix/ARod and ARod/Teix) not only b/c what works best on paper doesn’t always work best in practice, but so that if they decide to set the lineup that way should they make the postseason, it isn’t a national travesty.
The “more up his sleeve” involves finding another starting pitcher.
They have enough offense. They need another starter.
Hopefully, they won’t have to trade Nady or Swisher to find one. I like the position player depth heading into the season.
Yankeeray
If Swisher can beat out Nady, of course he would be a good choice to bat 8th. The lineup he posted assumed Nady would win the spot in RF. Same goes for the other OF positions too. IMO whoever is better is … well … better.
Of course its hard to say for sure what’s best until they compete for the positions and Girardi can see how they actually fit. You play the best three OFs and Johnny D gets leadoff spot assuming he’s in. Whoever wins the other 2 spots out of what we have available now are the bottom 2 of the order. On the days Matsui plays OF he’s still 5th and Girardi will mix it up.
Usually when someone thinks of a lineup, its a given there’s going to be some variation and some competition. It’s just a starting point …. spring training isn’t starting until next month and the season isn’t starting until April.
SJ– If Swisher can show his ’06-’07 type numbers in Spring Training (ie good patience with some pop) would you play him everyday in Right coming out of camp? Or do you think the Yanks would keep him in that super OF 1b utility role? IMO the guy should be playing over 100 games.
“SJ44
January 7th, 2009 at 12:20 pm
If Hughes is a “bust”, so is Clay Buchholz.
Funny how that’s never discussed on NESN2, otherwise known as ESPN.”
So true! This point needs to be made more. I have even heard countless talking heads use Buchholz as an example of one of the young players the sox have developed successfully, then in the next breath Hughes is an example of how the Yankees can’t develop their own players and inevitably have to resort to frivolous FA deals, blah blah blah
My cable coverage doesnt include the new MLB Network, but I can only hope that they will provide more balanced analyses of these kinds of topics. They have Harold Reynolds so thats a good start already.
i think 25 is about the age where a player has to show his talent & even that is being patient.
i don’t know the circumstances with coke.new pitches??? and so on.
hughes also has pitched well late,pitched well against cleveland,pitched well at the end of 08,his velocity is up & we don’t know how injuries & the fact that he needed glasses affected him.
all signs show that when he is healthy and he gets innings in he pitches well imo.
And yes, there could be a trade at some point but I’m assuming who we have available are all staying at least for now.
Swisher is going to start the season in CF. Yes, his D is avg at best out there….but with 3 groundball pitchers in our rotation, it won’t be as big a liability as some think.
Gardner will be the 4th OF, used to spell Damon Swisher and Nady on a consistent basis, and pinch hit/run. Melky will be DFA’d or traded. Posada bats 5th vs lefties, Matsui bats 5th vs righties.
LF – Damon
SS – Jeter
1B – Teixiera
3B – Rodriguez
C – Posada/Matsui
LF- Matsui/Posada
RF – Nady
2B – Cano
CF – Swisher
Rob: Nope, that was pretty much my point.
Every day lineup should be:
Damon CF
Jeter SS
Teixeira 1B
Rodriguez 3B
Matsui DH
Posada C
Swisher LF
Cano 2B
Nady RF
Put Melky or Gardner at CF when facing a team that runs a lot like the Angels or Rays. That’ll help keep them honest trying to stretch doubles or go first to third.
Keeping Nady, Swisher and Damon in the everyday lineup produces the most runs. Gardner as an everyday CF is an unacceptable risk.
Everyone from Cash to Tex is warning Yankee fans that he’s a slow starter at the plate. With that in mind, Tex 3rd/ Alex 4th would make more sense than the other way around because Tex might benefit from the protection to get it rolling.
I would like to see Girardi just mix it up occasionally when they are both hitting well so if Alex goes into a slump and they switch it up it wouldn’t turn to defcon 1 status in the media and with fans.
SJ44 – Think there’s any chance the Yanks might consider filling the last remaining hole in the rotation with Jon Garland? How short of a deal do you think he would accept? I like that he allows us to hold onto Swish and Nady, thereby keeping our offensive depth and adding some to the rotation too.
I meant DH for Matsui
I don’t think Swisher is playing CF for the Yankees.
I think its Brett Gardner’s job to lose. Cashman said yesterday that they don’t want Johnny Damon to be the everyday CF.
Even if Swisher is lights out in ST, I think his best role is super utility man.
Its just nice to have depth for a change. Hopefully, they won’t have to sacrifice it in order to get another starter.
swisher in cf for 1 year.trade the melkman
i don’t think the sox are as high on ells either.buchholz has great stuff but he has to start showing it.
i heard he lost confidence big time.
hughes seems to be very grounded,humble & not to rattled by the experience wich i believe will help him going forward.
i think he will have a great 09,always had faith in him.kennedy not so sure though.
“Or he will platoon with Nady who is in his walk year and playing for a contract?”
It’s completely irrelevant to the yankees that Nady is in his walk year.
Who cares? They don’t owe him anything. He’s been on the team 3 months. They certainly don’t owe him playing time just so he can maximize his value on the free agent market.
They’ll use nady the way they use most of their other players – in ways which make the team better.
So if they decide that’s a platoon then they’ll do that. He kills lefties so that’s not an unreasonable thing to do. I think he’ll play more than a straight platoon but there’s no reason they’ll need to play him or trade him.
They’re not compelled to do either of those. That’s one of the luxuries of having tremendous resources affords them. They don’t trade players as salary dumps. Nor are they forced to use them in ways that are dictated by finances.
They have an old team in many spots. If they want to keep Nady around as a source of depth that’s more than reasonable.
Same thing for Swisher – though given that he’s signed for 2 more years and they’ll need outfielders next year I think they’ll try to see how he fits into the team long term.
The yankees goal this year is clearly to win a WS. Not to make Xavier Nady content.
Damon
Jeter
Teixeira
ARod
Matsui
Posada
Cano
Nady
Swisher
I think these are the guys we would want getting the most at-bats over the season. This assumes Damon is playing center, which obviously won’t be the case all season long with an OF rotation and defensive replacements.
With “swing and miss” pitchers like Sabathia and Burnett on the mound, defensive replacements on the bench in Melky and Gardner, and some good range from Swisher in right that i’ve read about on this blog, the OF defense may be good enough when this lineup starts the game.
Cano and Swisher can hit their way higher in the lineup, but this alignment also does well breaking up lefties and righties. Nady is ahead of Swisher to start the season simply because he had a better season in 2008, and Nady has already played for the team for a few months.
Jon Garland is not very good and hates playing on the East Coast.
Don’t see him as an option.
Unless they trade Nady or Swisher for an arm, its either Andy or an arm from within the system for that spot in the rotation, IMO.
We’ll just have to wait & see who the best 3 of our OFs are, and play ‘em. We have Damon, Melky, Nady, Swisher, Gardner and Matsui, which makes 5 or 6 (if you consider Matsui an option) going into spring training. That’s a good start. That’s part of what spring training is for.
As far as nit-picking the lineup goes,
Damon leads off.
Matsui bats 5th or maybe 6th.
Any of the other 4 OFs could bat either 8th or 9th.
Pretty simple.
“Even if Swisher is lights out in ST, I think his best role is super utility man.”
I hope that’s not the case, it would be a huge waste of Swisher’s talent. Swisher is a better player than Nady, if anything Nady should sit on the bench. The most productive lineup would be to keep Swisher, Nady and Damon in the lineup on a consistent basis. Brett Gardner is not the answer.
Damon can still play CF, just not at a high level.
As far as the CF conundrum, I agree Gardner should only start against the faster teams, otherwise Damon or Swisher should with Brett coming off the bench late as a Damon defensive replacement.
Also, since we’re talking about the lineup, i may be the only one on this bandwagon but I would love to see them at least TRY leading Jeter off and batting Damon 2nd. the DP’s would decrease dramatically as Damon rarely gets doubled up and Jeter is very adept at setting the table from the leadoff spot.
AeroFANatic
January 7th, 2009 at 12:48 pm
Swisher is going to start the season in CF. Yes, his D is avg at best out there….but with 3 groundball pitchers in our rotation, it won’t be as big a liability as some think.
Gardner will be the 4th OF, used to spell Damon Swisher and Nady on a consistent basis, and pinch hit/run. Melky will be DFA’d or traded. Posada bats 5th vs lefties, Matsui bats 5th vs righties.
LF – Damon
SS – Jeter
1B – Teixiera
3B – Rodriguez
C – Posada/Matsui
LF- Matsui/Posada
RF – Nady
2B – Cano
CF – Swisher
——-
This is our best offensive lineup and for 7 innings our worst OF until Gardner replaces swisher. Without Manny this is our best option. 100% in agreement on the Matsui/Posada flip flop.
I wouldn’t trade Melky just yet though. he still has minor league options doesn’t he?
“i don’t know the circumstances with coke.”
I can remember as a kid my dad saying you have extra patience with lefties because they sometimes take longer to ripen. Not sure if facts support that claim or it was just wishful thinking because good lefties are just harder to come by.
Sam stepped up and saved the Sam name. After the thrashing Sam I am recieved. Good job.
Sj and others,
Can you picture a situation where the market/economy stays bad through out the 09 season and all of a sudden top players are getting paid around the 10 mil mark, rather than the 20 mil mark? If so, could you see players getting up there in the 20 mark soon after or would our contracts be something of the past that we are stuck with?
I don’t know why we can’t flip Jeter and Damon. Jeter was great when he led off and Damon is less likely to hit into a dp. Plus then Tex can protect A Rod.
Jeter SS righty
Damon CF lefty
A Rod 3B righty
Tex 1B switch
Matsui DH lefty
Posada C switch
Nady RF righty
Swisher LF switch
Cano 2B lefty
Sabathia’s ERAs were consistently in the 4+ catergory before the 2006 season, and he’s 28 now…
A-rod doesn’t need protection. He’s one of the best hitters in the league and should be the cleanup hitter. Tex has great OBP skills and will get tons of pitches with A-rod behind him.
If Matsui is healthy he’ll be a full-time DH but he’s not going to be play 162 games. I think there is a lot of flexibility on the team. I’d go with an outfield of Swisher, Damon, Nady (left to right). Then on some days Girardi can shift Damon to left, put Gardner in center, DH Swisher or Nady and rest Matsui.
However, one thing to keep in mind is that Girardi has to make sure the team has a set lineup that plays almost every day. The players obviously didn’t like all the mixing and matching Girardi did last year. Once he changed things up and played a consistent lineup everyday the team played a lot better.
BBB (don’t trade Nady)
“They have Harold Reynolds so thats a good start already”.
————
Harold Reynolds is the weakest link on that show so far IMO.
He has been coached by the same interruption interview coach that Francessa has.
All of the ex pitchers bring good insight and have been impressed by Magraine and Williams and Leiter is always good.
Damon is a pure leadoff hitter. He’s not a #2 hitter.
Jeter is the perfect #2 hitter. He can hit the ball the other way, and you can do more things with Damon on the bases hitting in front of him.
Since Swisher isn’t being told by the Yankees CF is an option, I have a hard time believing he’s going to be the CF.
Remember, they want to improve their defense more than their offense. Swisher is not a good CF. He’s an above average corner OF.
They aren’t going to weaken their defense to get another bat in the lineup.
Only way something like that happens is if Posada and Matsui are just not healthy enough to play and they need another bat in the lineup.
All things being equal though, I don’t see Swisher playing CF for the Yankees this season.
If Swisher is a utility guy at his salary, yeah maybe it’s a little expsensive but he can play 1B and OF so that covers a lot of options.
But it’s a bargain compared to what NY paid Carl Pavano to do for the vast majority of 4 years.
You never know where you might need or use him. If Melky & Gardner both can’t cut it and Matsui’s lost it, he can play OF. If Johnny D pulls a calf muscle and sits for a month, Swisher could very well get the call. If the Sox bean Teixiera and he has to go on the DL, Swisher’s a good 1B. Maybe Posada runs into some health problem where he can’t hit or catch, so Molina steps in and but it turns out Matsui can play OF because his knees are better. Swisher can DH. Ot vice versa. Whatever. You never know what could happen and having Swisher on the roster gives you options.
Swisher is much better then Nady. Last year was an anomoly for Swish with the whole Guillen situation. He is a .370+ OBP switch hitter who is good defensively on the corners. He is also 2 years younger then Nady and entering his prime. Keep him and trade Nady for a pitcher. Nady has had one full year and slumped badly down the stretch. I am not convinced he is an everyday player.
As for CF – as I have said before – Gardner gets the Nod with Melky platooning against LHP. Both are solid defensively and Gardner’s speed is a difference maker. If he gets a real chance to play he could make a huge impact on the lineup – a 40 SB guy batting 9th ahead of Damon, Jeter, Arod, Tex.
As for Tex/Arod batting order – bat Alex third because of his speed and Tex 4th to protect him. Tex could get 130 RBI’s in the cleanup spot with Alex’s OBP.
And Swisher can PH too. I’m sure he’d be better than Betemit.
meant to say…”some good range from Swisher in Left that i’ve read about on this blog”
I think it’s Swish in LF and Nady in RF during the games we need the most offense starting the game.
I think it’s either Andy Pettite or the issue is going to be resolved from within the organization….No Jon Garlnad……Swisher has more upside than Nady…..But CF will be decided between Melky and Gardner ( who is the lead option) The Melk man did have a fine winter league…Should be interesting……
Looking at all these lineups,im going to miss us complaining about Giambi and his .240 avg. in the 5th spot forever.
Last night i saw a 50′s world series Cards vs. Sox. They did a Giambi shift but it was the third baseman playing on the other side of the field. I thought it was a better idea in keeping the shortstop at bay.
If Tim Kurkjian defects to MLB Network, I will have no reason to watch ESPN for baseball.
So, it seems we are keeping our #5 position an in-house competition? Sounds like a good plan to me, considering our 1-3 can all be #1′s, and our 4 has the most upside of any #4 starter in the league.
Additionally, Leiter made a great point about the Yankees offense. More than people realize, this offense is going to succeed/fail with the success of Robinson Cano. Past our #6, we are a bit weak. If we had a .310-.340 hitter in there and Posada/Matsui can return to somewhat of their former selves, we have one heck of a lineup. Unfortunately, If Cano faulters, our 7-8-9 is will be seen as a break for pitchers.
We are done buying players, so any additions will come via trade. I like where we are at, though we could get rid of one Matsui/Nady/Swisher for almost anyone who will contribute. Thoughts?
Hal and Hank are like George was split into 2. They both have a lot of his qualities but it’s like the bluster got filtered into Hank and Hal got all the good qualities minus the over the top emotions.
Teixeira has batted mostly in the 3 or 4 spot his career and here are the statistics for each:
BA batting 3rd -.311/ 4th-.278
OBP batting 3rd- .394/ 4th- .378
Slugging batting 3rd- .573/ 4th- .523
OPS batting 3rd- .967/ 4th- .902
BApip batting 3rd- .333 4th- .294
You can draw your own conclusions as to where he should bat.
A-Rod’s BA, OBP and BApip have been higher in the #4 position.
Since Girardi is a stats guy, my guess is Tex will bat 3rd.
Also IMO, as far as Damon vs Jeter batting leadoff, Damon is statistically better than Jeter in base stealing but last year, Damon hits righties better and Jeter lefties better, with comparable BA’s & OBP. Jeter did hit into > 20 DPs. Maybe Jeter should lead off against lefties, and hopefully next year will cut down on the hitting into double plays in the two hole.
Swisher is an interesting case.
My gut tells me that the Yankees probably traded Swisher with the assumption that they thought Teixiera probably wouldn’t work out, and now that Tex has in fact, worked out, it’s like they get to keep Swisher as a bonus.
If Tim Kurkjian defects to MLB Network, I have no reason to watch ESPN for baseball purposes.
One of Matsui/Nady/Swisher need to go. Gardner is our CFer. He is better defensively than anyone we have. Also, this lineup is contingent on Cano stepping up to what we know he can be. With a +300 hitter at the bottom of our lineup, it gives the pitcher less of a break than would Posada/Cano/Gardner with nobody above 300 and nobody hitting more than 15 HR’s. While our lineup is most formidable, the 7-8-9 seems a bit suspect, especially given the ? on Cano’s back. We can go into the season with this lineup, but if Posada/Cano cannot perform offensively, it seems a trade must be made.
Swisher is a guy with good upside though. A grinder who can play multiple positions. I will be very upset if they trade him. I think they should keep them all and go into the year with depth, they will need it, they always do.
The Yankees will go into the season with all of Damon, Matsui, Melky, Gardner, Nady and Swisher. They have roster room for all 6, considering one can play first base backup, one can play all OF positions, and one is a base stealer.
The rest of the spots will be for Molina, Ransom, and one more back up infielder who may specialize at 2b.
The AL East, as it currently stands, has an improved Tampa Bay rays and Yankees team, mildly improved Red Sox team, a weaker Toronto team and a still fairly awful Baltimore team. IMO the divisional and wildcard team should come from this division.
Therefore to secure one of those spots I would feel more comfortable if we had another veteran pitcher in the 4 spot, since Joba’s innings will be limited, and to account for possible injuries, than throwing up for grabs that spot to Aceves/Hughes/Coke. I’d rather have them as insurance options. Ideally it would be a one, at most, two year contract.
Thoughts, and if in agreement who could be had for < 10 million/year, assuming Pettitte doesn’t come back.
Hal Steinbrenner really has come a long way from just a couple short years ago:
http://tinyurl.com/7gkdm2
How has Tampa seriously improved from last year? Burrell??? Anything else? i would drop them to the level of boston’s improvement.
Yankee Trader: Don’t underestimate Matt Wieters with the Orioles.
The rest of the team may still suck, but Wieters is a guy, like Markakis that you can build around.
SJ,
I was curious about your comment concerning sheets current injury being a precursor to tommy john surgery. I am in medical school currently and have a lot of resources at my disposal so I tried to do some research – i find out that injuries labeled tightness in the forearm is one of the precursors to ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction or TJ surgery. This is primarily because the tendons of the forearm flexor muscles are located extremely close to the ulnar collateral ligament providing extra support – when this support is weakened, it is a sign that the ligament may also not be at full stength which makes sense.
Ben sheets current injury is a torn flexor muscle in the forearm – I dont believe it is the tendon but rather a tear in the muscle itself that is the problem. This is not exactly forearm tightness or a tear in the tendon (I dont think) but I can obviously see the cause for concern. Of course, not every player who has forearm tightness eventually has TJ surgery and I havent heard of a tear of a forearm flexor being labelled as a precursor as of yet so there is no reason to think the injury is THAT serious at the moment. I still think if the price is right we should take a flier on this guy. A contract loaded with incentives would be the way to go because if he ends up having ligament reconstruction and is out the entire length of the contract, not much will be lost. In that line of thinking, I would assume the risk would be worth the potential reward. But this is all a matter of opinion and no matter how much information you have to work with, no one can tell the future.
Agree that the best option right now would be to keep Swisher and Nady, but the Yankees are getting more trade interest in Swisher, and if a deal comes up that they like, Swisher could very well be the one traded, even though I’d like him to show what he can do as a Yankee.
anybody have updates on the 2 cuban defecters.
Backup IF’s
Ransom as the 25th man super utility guy – can play all IF positions and corner OF’s
Berroa the backup middle IF guy
My fears:
1 – adequate IP eating vet 4th starter can’t be found.
2 – Posada can’t catch
Pat M.,
Last night you asked about how much better the team would be with Tex at first base rather than Giambi. To answer that:
Tex looks to create 10-15 runs more than Giambi just by the numbers. I think that’s an underestimate however as it doesn’t take into account Giambi’s problems driving in runs with men on base due to his low batting average.
So I’ll estimate that Tex will create at least 20 runs more than Giambi at the plate next season. Around there. Call it 15-20 if you want to be conservative. But I’ll say 20.
Defensively Tex is around 8-10 runs saved better than giambi. Around there.
So in total I’d estimate that Tex will be at least 30 runs better than Giambi at first. That’s a large upgrade. That’s equivalent to 3 additional wins.
And that doesn’t take into account the inherent risk with Giambi getting injured/ falling off considerably due to his age. Giambi played a lot last year and stayed healthy. No guarantees he’d do that two years in a row.
Now the flip side to the question you asked – and I think the more salient question is this – how much better will Tex be than the yankees 1b in 2008.
Remember Giambi only played 113 games at 1b in 2008. That means they had 49 game with other players at 1b. Cody Ransom started 2 games at 1b and played 19 games at 1b. Betemit started 21 games at 1b. I think the yanks had 12 players play 1b last year. Something ridiculous like that.
This is a bit tougher to estimate as a projection for 2009 comapred to 2008 but I’d say that comared to yankees 1b in 2008 Tex will be 50-60 runs better.
That’s 5-6 wins – which is just enormous.
the following shows that sometimes it is the little things that mean a lot.
http://sports.aol.com/story/_a.....eam/296317
Then there was Boston, forever a Yankee thorn. The Red Sox drafted Teixeira out of high school, but his father John reportedly became irked at a Boston scout and urged his son to instead attend college. Now the Red Sox were again heavy on the scene; Cashman figured he might as well play along.
So he did a bit of research, discovered Teixeira had a fondness for Twisted Sister, the iron men of ’80s rock. Sometimes it really is this simple, this high-stakes recruiting game. Sure, it helped that the Yankees eventually offered $180 million over eight years, but what really wowed Teixeira was the super cool video Cashman revealed when he came to visit in the middle of December.
Shot in the new stadium, with digitalized images of what Teixeira might look like as he ran out of the dugout and onto the grass, the crowd at a froth, the New York skyline in the distance, the sound track blared “I Wanna Rock.” Cashman pressed play.
“Hey, that’s my song!” Cashman recalled Teixeira saying as he and I walked through the old stadium hallways. “I was like, yeah, we know that.”
Rebecca: You’re right, forgot about Wieters, but at least they don’t have Cabrera, who is “injury prone” for the opposing batters and Kevin Millar and his 20 homers, probably a 1/4 hit off our pitching!!
Tex NBF,
Your scenario of having another backup IF along with Ransom, Molina, and all the outfielders would assume that they will carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers.
I think they’ll carry 13 position and 12 pitchers, like they did for most of 2008. If Ransom is not the bench infielder, it will be someone else who can cover 2b, 3b, and SS. There’s only 1 bench spot for that role.
so if swisher gets traded he updated his page for no reason and thats press conference was for nothing
Your scenario of having another backup IF along with Ransom, Molina, and all the outfielders would assume that they will carry 14 position players and 11 pitchers.
I think they’ll carry 13 position and 12 pitchers, like they did for most of 2008. If Ransom is not the bench infielder, it will be someone else who can cover 2b, 3b, and SS. There’s only 1 bench spot for that role.
………………………………………………..
if its not ransom it probably berroa he can play third secnd and shorstop and i think i saw him playin the outfield before to
Yankees Fan-
There has not been a Swisher press conference he just did a conference call lol
Thank You CB,,,,,Your are the Digit Man……Great insight and a fresh slant on the game…..Alot better than the back of a Topps Card….
CB-
Always enjoy your posts. Can you take the thoughts on wins from Teixeira a little further by looking at him in the 3 hole vs the 4 hole. I posted those numbers @ 1:14 in my blog.
Also, I know you spoke of this before, but in terms of wins, would our best current outfield configuration be Swisher in LF, Damon in CF, and Nady in RF, and would replacing the CF spot with Gardner in the later innings or starting him against running teams, still be to the Yankees advantage, in terms of wins?
Nick in SF January 7th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Hal Steinbrenner really has come a long way from just a couple short years ago:
http://tinyurl.com/7gkdm2
—————————————
Nick!!! I almost choked on my lunch! lol :O
gayle: That’s a great tidbit!
Little things do mean a lot…
There has not been a Swisher press conference he just did a conference call lol
……………………………………………………
ma bad thats wat i meant :]
Swisher better get more AB’s than Nady.
This year’s team has more flexability. I can see Girardi possibly trying Swisher in CF to see for himself if he could handle the position as needed or on a rotation basis which might leave Melky as the odd man out in a late March deal for whatever is needed.
Figuring on 12 pitchers, 2 catchers, 1 DH, 4 infielders, 3 outfielders and 3 left for the bench.
I guess I’m not the only dreamer out there
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo....._is-2.html
“Nick in SF January 7th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Hal Steinbrenner really has come a long way from just a couple short years ago:
http://tinyurl.com/7gkdm2”
Nick,
Did you mean to say Pedroia? The picture is of a hobbit no?
frank b
January 7th, 2009 at 1:32 pm
“anybody have updates on the 2 cuban defecters.”
Both are hiding out in the Dominican republic , do not have to go through the draft, and can be signed by the highest bidder.
“Right Handed Pitcher, Yadel Marti and OFer Yasser Gomez, 29 and 28 years old respectively are on their way to the D.R. and scouts claim they have MLB ready talent.”
“Marti, 29, was the best of Cuba’s pitchers in the 2006 WBC. The right-hander went 1-0 with two saves and led the tournament in ERA (0.00) after not allowing a single run in 12 2/3 innings. He was elected to the WBC All Star team.
Marti won 67 games with a 3.23 ERA in his career with Industriales but participated in a limited capacity last season (4-2, 3.12 ERA in 15 games).
Gomez, 28, is a fast outfielder who was Rookie of the Year in 1997 and hit .394 with 51 runs scored and 41 RBIs in 66 games in the most recent National Series tournament. He has a .331 career average with Industriales”
Originally i thought arod should bat third and tex fourth because arod’s speed and tex’s lack of it as well as arod’s tendency to shrink under pressure at times. It made sense considering that arod could turn most singles or walks into doubles and tex could hit him in from second while tex could not turn singles or walks into doubles and certainly couldnt score on a hard hit ball from first.
However, now that I have seen tex’s numbers in the third slot which are fat superior than his numbers batting fourth, I changed my mind. I didnt really like jeter and arod batting back to back anyways as we have three lefties, three righties and three switchhitters if swisher starts and there is no need to bat two righties in a row with that kind of spread. So here is my lineup: Damon, Jeter, Tex, Arod, Matsui, Posada, Swisher, Cano, Gardner. That is L, R, S, R, L, S, S, L, R.
I think outside of the tex, arod debate between 3 and 4 all the rest are pretty obvious outside of Nady-Swisher playing right field and where they bat. Even if cano has a comeback season I can see him hitting eighth and gardner with his speed is the clear choice for ninth. I also think matsui is the best protection behind arod.
I think swisher is better than nady if he turns things around which I think he will – they could always platoon or nady could takes the seventh spot in right and swisher could either replace someone who is injured or be the bench guy with his versatility. The lineup still makes sense as the last five spots would be L, S, R,L,R with nady batting seventh so that wouldnt change. If we end up trading for cameron I would still bat him ninth and replace gardner. – i always like some speed in the ninth spot as it is almost like a second leadoff hitter.
Rebecca abd Gayle -
Isn’t that “Ugly American” piece dripping with sarcasm? Am I missing something? The “laser show” can’t be real.
I’ve has a bad (sports) winter ….. have I lost my reading comprehension as well?
If Posada gets hurt again or isn’t ready to start the season playing catcher, Melky or Gardner could start the season in AAA and we could easily carry 3 catchers again like we did last season for some weeks to let Posada DH. The bench would still have a catcher, an infielder to cover 2nd 3rd and SS, and 2 outfielders.
oops ….. “abd” = and
I see the te Yanks made the out of town papers, and, it’s not for the usual reaons. The Washington Post says that since Teixeira, Sabathaia and Burnett have begged out of the WBC “so they can learn their new team mates and coaches”, the Yanks are somehow unpatriotic and are undermining the WBC by not sending their best players to the tournament. I guess that Rodriguez and Jeter are no longer their best players. (paraphrasing what was said, but, implications are clear)
***1. No more about the Mark Teixeira negotiations, I promise. But it’s worth mentioning here that Teixeira said yesterday he is passing on the World Baseball Classic this time around because, ahem, he needed to “learn my teammates, learn my coaches.” New Yankees pitchers C.C. Sabathia and A.J. Burnett said versions of the same thing. This is not good. The WBC simply won’t work if top players decline to play, and it won’t work if some teams hand over all their top players while others don’t. Teixeira insisted the decision was his, not the team’s, and I don’t dispute that. But it doesn’t matter. The whole endeavor is predicated upon players playing, as well as the equal sacrifice of all MLB teams***
http://voices.washingtonpost.c.....s=rss_blog
gayle
Thanks for the link. That must be the video and the “college recruiting” Tex referred to in the press conference yesterday.
brian-
The beginning part was certainly sarcastic but after that all true. he did mention the video yesterday at the press conference but didnt know it had Twister Sister on it
“Can you take the thoughts on wins from Teixeira a little further by looking at him in the 3 hole vs the 4 hole. ”
I know people put a lot of emphasis on the batting order but it really doesn’t make a whole lot of difference as long as you’re not Dusty Baker and doing things which are completely nonsensical.
In general you want to cluster your guys who get on base together and make sure that you have high on base guys up before guys with lower on base percentages.
Cano for this reason would be a poor 3 hole hitter, for example.
And the other thing is that for every spot higher in the order you hit you get around 15 more at bats over the course of a season. That makes a big difference when you compare the lead off hitter to the 7-9 hitters but not that big a deal when comparing #3 to #4.
So it doesn’t matter much if Tex hits 3 or 4 as both he an Alex are very well balanced hitters. I wouldn’t venture there would be any substantial win difference.
Citing statistics of a player batting average, etc. when they hit in one spot vs. another is largely meaningless as you aren’t controlling for any of the confounding factors. People cite these kind of stats all of the time – and they just don’t mean much.
That said a couple of things.
Tex is probably the more patient hitter. So batting him in front of Alex makes sense. Tex would get on base a ton with Alex hitting behind him.
Alex is also going to hit many, many more home runs than Tex – up to 30-40% more I’d guess. So it would be great to convert as many of Alex’s home runs into home runs with men on base as possible by hitting Tex in front of him.
On the flip side Alex’s swing at times gets very long – and that happens when he gets impatient. If you think Tex hitting behind ARod would keep his swing short that’s something to consider.
Finally, often when guys sign big contracts with the yanks they feel a real need to live up to the contract. That happens a lot – it’s probably inevitable. But hitting Tex before Alex might give Tex some time to adjust.
Anyway all of these things aren’t really related to statistics – additional wins, etc. – they are more about ancillary, supporting issues that are highly subjective and depend on the teams assessment of the player, his game and his personality.
Which is what the job of the manager is about.
When Nick Swisher went to the White Sox last year all the talk was about his “swagger” and his terrific upside etc., etc. He was supposed to have a huge year.
Well, the Chisox made the post season but not because of him. If you remember – he was terrible. Although given every chance to hold down his everyday spot in the lineup he eventually lost it – because he couldn’t produce. It’s apparent it didn’t take the White Sox long to realize they didn’t necessarily need him back again this year.
I am in no way convinced he is in any way a better player than Nady. The one thing he does provide is some flexibility though, point granted.
Hope Nick has a good year with us if he is around after ST. I do think he has to be a little better than he was last year.
But don’t hold your breath thinking he will be the everyday CF.
I think instinctually you put Tex in the 3 hole, A-Rod has infinitely more power than Tex, and both can hit for average, though I think Tex can probably hit for a little bit higher average at this point of his career. I feel that arod loses .10-.20 points of average because he tries to be a slugger too often vs a pure hitter despite his great abilities.
I think keeping Swisher, who is younger and under contract, is the best more for the Yanks, but those factors also make him attractive to other teams. Worst case scenario, we give Nady his arbitration money this year, and next year we collect draft picks when we lose him to FA.
Brian: A bad winter?
I guess you’re not a Celtics or a Bruins fan…
Does this mean . . No Sheets . Perez or free agent 5th starter ???
thoughts ??
Who will be the comeback player this year with the Yankees?
a.Posada
b.Matsui
c.Wang
d.Melky
e.Cano
f.Arod(odd number year)
g.?
GB: That’s unbelievable.
I can’t even come up with a coherent reply to that.
“Also, I know you spoke of this before, but in terms of wins, would our best current outfield configuration be Swisher in LF, Damon in CF, and Nady in RF, and would replacing the CF spot with Gardner in the later innings or starting him against running teams, still be to the Yankees advantage, in terms of wins?”
Yes this would be the yankees best use of players – but that assumes Damon can be around league average defensively in CF and will stay healthy playing CF.
Those are the assumptions that optimal arrangement of players is based upon.
I don’t know if the Yankee’s organization or Girardi in particular would believe in those assumptions so I don’t know what they’ll decide to do.
But as it was Tex looked to be around 2-3 wins better than Swisher at 1b.
If you move Tex to 1b, Swisher LF and Nady to RF that arrangement will produce around 5-6 wins more than Swisher at 1b, Gardner CF, Damon LF, Nady RF.
If Damon can play CF then the Tex signing goes from a very significant upgrade to a huge upgrade.
Thanks again CB for your well thought out input.
I’d love to see what Rodriguez’ numbers are when Giambi was hitting 5th against when Posada/Matsui was hitting 5th. Given the length of Giambi’s slumps, it might be quite telling.
no, this means no manny. I think for the right price they could sign sheets or perhaps, garland or someone like that because hughes is NOT ready and who knows when he will be and joba cant pitch 200 innings this season. So not only do we not have a stable fifth starter that can pitch 200 innings but we also dont have a fourth starter with that capability either. Not to mention Burnett’s history, Wang’s comeback from injury and CC’s workload. The yanks cant feel comfortable relying on some combo of Joba, Aceves and Coke to fill the fourth and fifth spot the entire year in case hughes and kennedy arent ready until september or not at all this season. I know i wouldnt be. I think the yanks may delve back into the sheets negotiations and see if they can offer him big money with the caveat that he has to stay healthy and up to 8 mil guaranteed for one year with a team option. The yanks wouldnt lose much if they signed him and he got hurt and would gain a lot if he stays healthy and pitches to his career numbers.
Rebecca–Optimist Prime–Staying to write the story
January 7th, 2009 at 2:08 pm
GB: That’s unbelievable.
I can’t even come up with a coherent reply to that.
————————————————————
Yes, it’s difficult to be upset by something that incompetently silly.
By big money i meant around 14 million if he stays healthy and pitches 200 innings – that is almost double what he would make guaranteed in this scenario and about the same as the option he declined which im sure he regrets right about now.
Dave I agree . . Hughes nor Coke have enough innings under there belt to be starters . We are some what rolling the dice with Joba . .But Joba is Joba . he has the stuff
I don’t want to blow bullpen arms when our 4th and 5th starters can’t go past 5 innings .
Yanks need an innings eater !!
Dave,
For 8 mil, id take Sheets and be happy if he lasted half a year. Give me an Ace for the first half of the year where we arent playing catchup and we will deal with replacing him the second half of the year.
“The WBC simply won’t work if top players decline to play, and it won’t work if some teams hand over all their top players while others don’t.”
LMAO – Good – it is a stupid idea anyway. Our top USA players all are coming into it after being off all winter anyway. Seriously does anyone really care about this tournament? It is a curiosity at best. Everyone knows that MLB is the “real” tournament and all the best players get there eventually anyway. Do I really need to see the Dutch team play? Or the Australians for cripes’s sake? Paging Craig Shipley – the world stage is calling…
“Who will be the comeback player this year with the Yankees?”
in my eyes or who will win the award ?
either way, Cano.
new post
Aside from getting your best hitters more ABs by having them near the top of the order, there are many who think the minor adjustments to the BO is a crap shoot. After all, any player wiil one day they go 3 for 4, the next day go 0 for 5. Production at the plate is very random. Without a hugh sample size, I think it would be impossible to prove if Tex/ARod is better then ARod/Tex, Matsui/Posada better then Posada/Matsui, etc.
Obviously, the type a year a player is having, or if he’s riding a prolonged hot streak, or in a deep slump, might dictate adjustments. The handedness of the P might make for minor ajustments. Swapping Swish for Nady, or having a JD/Swish/Nady OF might get the BO tweaked. And if Robbie returns to form, you might move him up a notch or 2.
Our team has a LOT of batters who should all be between a .800 and .850 OPS. JD, Jeter (hopefully), Matsui, Posada, Swish and X-Man, should all be in that neighborhood. So with this team, aside from our CF’er, we have few holes. The first 4 will probably be JD, Jetes, Tex and ARod. Aside from that (and even JD/Jetes and Tex/ARod could be switched), I don’t think it makes a hell of a lot of difference.
I want my PLAYERS getting ready to play for MY TEAM. I don’t care about the WBC. In fact I hope America and the Dominican team get knocked out early so MY players can come back and get ready to win a WS with MY team.
“Nick in SF
January 7th, 2009 at 1:29 pm
Hal Steinbrenner really has come a long way from just a couple short years ago:
http://tinyurl.com/7gkdm2”
That looks like Samwise Gamgee.
CB,
I agree the order between third and fourth doesnt much matter and perhaps, stats dont mean much. But considering Tex’s batting average is 33 points higher batting third than fourth (311 third to 278 fourth). i THINK that is something to consider and I am sure girardi thinks so. Further, this is comparing the same player in a giant sample size of almost 3500 at bats – i think most of the confoundings would be controlled for using these two large samples.
I agree with your other points as well – batting tex third does take some pressure off on a new team with a large, new contract and arod will hit far more homers than tex maximizing the runs scored on these. I also definitely agree tex is the more patient hitter and arod has won multiple mvps while hitting fourth including the best season of his career.
On the flip side, i am pretty surprised you never mentioned the role speed plays in the lineup.Arod’s speed can turn single into doubles and can score form first at times. Tex cannot do this. That would be one advantage of batting arod third and the major reason why speedy players hit in the top of the order.
I also agree that none of this will matter much and have very little impact on winning but it is an interesting discussion nonetheless.
“Who will be the comeback player this year with the Yankees?”
I’m hoping Posada, Wang & Matsui come back en force and end in a 3-way tie for that one, S.o.S. The team sure needs it from all 3. Big time.
I don’t think having a season one would expect from a guy after what amounts to a mental lapse year should qualify as a ‘comeback’ year. Melky & Cano just stumbled & fumbled all year and I’m thinking of them when I say that. There were no excuses to be made, they just didn’t live up to expectations. Rebound years? I hope so. Come back years? No.
A-Rod followed up an MVP year in ’07 with what amounts to a pretty good year by most player’s standards in ’08. So even thinking ‘comeback’ when thinking A-Rod isn’t fair to the guys making actual comebacks.
Good productive years from Melky, Cano and A-Rod? The team needs them too. Again … big time. But they really can’t be called ‘come back years’.
If I can add a side bar …. if Carl Pavano were to somehow go 17-5 with an ERA in the mid-3′s after logging nearly 200 innings for Cleveland, he shouldn’t be considered for ‘Comeback Player of the Year. More like ‘Miracle of the Decade’.
Swisher (career OPS+ 112) is arguably a better player than Nady (career OPS+ 108). He’s definitely younger and more versatile defensively.
As for his “disasterous” 2008, I would recommend Peter Bendix’s article on Fangraphs. Here’s a link: http://www.fangraphs.com/fanta.....ound-in-09
Excerpt: “In a study I recently co-authored, I found that Swisher was one the unluckiest players on balls in play in 2008. I found his expected BABIP to be .294, much higher than his actual BABIP. If we credit Swisher for his lost hits, his 2008 line becomes .249/.356/.447 – not much different from his career line of .244/.354/.441 (and his career line includes his miserable 2008 stats). . . . There’s no reason to think that his inherent ability to hit the ball changed much, as evidenced by his stable strikeout, walk, and line-drive rates; therefore, we have every reason to expect Swisher to improve in 2009, thanks to regression to the mean.”
“In other words, don’t expect another $20 million a year signing.”
That statement is for this year right? cause Matt Holliday is a free agent next year and with more payroll coming off, I wouldn’t mind seeing him in pinstripes.
YankeeRay
January 7th, 2009 at 1:50 pm
I guess I’m not the only dreamer out there
http://www.nydailynews.com/spo....._is-2.html
XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
With Hank muzzled, nobody knows the Yankees’ thinking, including sportswriters, columnist and club sychophants.
I can’t imagine us not being in this.
Brad Pitt ,
The major advantage I see with swisher is his patience. He is one of the best in the game in that category somehow managing to lead the league in pitches per plate appearance despite the worst year in his career. The yanks are known for their patience and ability to wear down pitchers and swisher along with tex starting in the lineup every single day certainly does an excellent job in replacing Giambi and abreu in that category.
Further, there is a reason people were saying all that before last season. Swisher has a ton of talent. iN 2007, he had a 381 on base percentage with 22 homers and the year before it was 372 with 35 homers. That is the type of production Giambi was giving us in his healthy, productive years on the yanks for a fraction of the cost. yEA, Swisher was dreadful last season but so was cano. Does that mean they are finished or that they shouldnt start this season? Of course now. The potential is still there despite one horrendous year. Not to mention, swisher was forced to play centerfield which he claimed he hated and was one of the major reasons for his horrible year. I believe he feels very differently about right field.
Another little statistic is that in swisher’s first full season, he was sixth in bases on balls in the league. That is amazing. He was sixth in 2007 and despite last years numbers he was still eighth in the league in walks. That is pretty incredible that he has finished in the top ten in his first three years in baseball in walks while still hitting over 20 homers every single season. How can this guy not be a great player with that obp and that power? You dont need a high average when you lead baseball in obp – avg becomes irrelevant. And with his power – he is a very useful weapon and I believe he should start in right field over nady.
CB, SJ or ?
Can somebody explain how is it that Swish is an above average corner guy, but below average CF. I mean if he has an arm for RF, gets a good read and takes good routes to the ball, how does that not work in CF? Is it just not enough speed to cover more ground? Thanks
Question RE: Jeter:
Is there any truth to the rumor that Jeter is in decline? His HR total has dropped 5 straight years (04 – 23HR, 05 – 19HR, 06 – 14HR, 07 – 12HR, 08 – 11HR) and his hits, doubles, OBP and SLG dropped off considerably from 07 (206 to 179 (H), and 39 to 25 (2B), .388 to .363 (OBP), and .452 to .408 (SLG).
Can this be attributed to decline or a sore wrist from getting beaned by Daniel Cabrera 100 times?
RE: Defense… when will the Yankees move him to OF? Will they move him to OF? Will they resign him as their SS?
“Is it just not enough speed to cover more ground? Thanks”
Yes. Though more than speed it’s range. Speed is a major component of range but not all of it.
The player might not get as good a read on the ball or he might not be able to move as well to both is right and left.
CF is much more demanding defensively in terms of range than RF or LF. It’s fairly frequent that you take a guy who’s not real good in CF and move him to a corner spot and he becomes a large plus in the corner because while his range wasn’t good enough for CF it’s plus for the corner.
We have to go after holliday – matsui and damon leave 26 million to play with and nady puts that up to around 31 million off the books. Not to mention, that leaves two gaping holes in the outfield – swisher fills one but we still need a left field and thats where holliday comes in – 25 mil for holliday and we still have 6 mil left over for arbitration and raises and such. The rest of the spots are pretty much set outside of some unforeseen circumstance. Thus, Holliday being the yanks primary target next year is a foregone conclusion and perfect timing.
January 7th, 2009 at 2:28 pm
CB,
I agree the order between third and fourth doesnt much matter and perhaps, stats dont mean much. But considering Tex’s batting average is 33 points higher batting third than fourth (311 third to 278 fourth). i THINK that is something to consider and I am sure girardi thinks so. Further, this is comparing the same player in a giant sample size of almost 3500 at bats – i think most of the confoundings would be controlled for using these two large samples.
I agree with your other points as well – batting tex third does take some pressure off on a new team with a large, new contract and arod will hit far more homers than tex maximizing the runs scored on these. I also definitely agree tex is the more patient hitter and arod has won multiple mvps while hitting fourth including the best season of his career.
On the flip side, i am pretty surprised you never mentioned the role speed plays in the lineup.Arod’s speed can turn single into doubles and can score form first at times. Tex cannot do this. That would be one advantage of batting arod third and the major reason why speedy players hit in the top of the order.
I also agree that none of this will matter much and have very little impact on winning but it is an interesting discussion nonetheless.
Thanks CB.
Taking it one step further- range is more important then arm so that is why Damon is a better choice for CF then Swish.
“But considering Tex’s batting average is 33 points higher batting third than fourth (311 third to 278 fourth). i THINK that is something to consider and I am sure girardi thinks so.”
Ok Dave I’ll bite. But I’m not going to get into a long drawn out discussion of this.
The difference between Tex’s batting average hitting 3rd vs. 4th largely means nothing.
Why? Because you generally cannot draw significant inferences from bivariate statistics like that because they do not control for any other confounding factors that may also impact batting average. Bivariate statistics are best used for hypothesis exploration rather than hypothesis testing.
Now you may not believe that – but I can tell you it’s true.
Tarheelyank,
Swisher himself said he felt very uncomfortable playing CF last year. He didn’t like it at all. He also said that playing out of position in CF was a major reason for why he hit so poorly.
I’ll take him at his word. Damon has been a CF for most of his career and he was a natural at that position in terms of range and instincts.
The question now is whether he’s simply too old to play the position.
But even now he runs better than Swisher does and likely has more range to play CF.
Swisher is not a natural CF by any stretch of the imagination.
I believe you. i dont want to get into a long discussion about statistics either, i just wanted to hear your opinion – it does make sense.
1. I’m glad pettite has decided to move on.
2. The cash denails always give me hope there is more to come.
3. Can someone in the know tell me which days/weeks A-Rod will be playing at spring training so I can buy my tix to spring training fri? Tx!