Pinch hitting: In Mo We Trust
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jan 19, 2009 
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January is traditionally a slow month for baseball news. So for the second year in a row, we will showcase other blogs with a series of pinch hitters.
Next up is Brian from In Mo We Trust.
Brian has been blogging since December of 2006 when he started Depressed Fan. He recently joined forces with Mike from Green Pinstripes and created In Mo We Trust. Brian grew up watching the Yankees in the 80′s, and says he still sheds a tear every time he sees the Don Mattingly Yankeeography, He also believes Mariano Rivera is the best baseball player he’ll ever have the pleasure of watching
Here’s his post:
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Over the past five years or so, Billy Beane has tried to exploit what he sees as a flaw in baseball’s valuation of players. His data reveals that saves are a meaningless stat and closers are generally over-valued. His method is to take a decent pitcher, make him a closer, drive up his value, then trade him. It’s a brilliant economic theory, and a strategy that has served him well. I agree, wholeheartedly, with Beane’s assessment of the closer market, as well as his thoughts on the value of a save. If you need convincing, check out K-Rod’s career stats. 2008 was his worst season, statistically, yet he accumulated a record 62 saves.
There is a distinction we need to draw, however. Just because saves are overrated, does not mean that closers, by definition, are as well. You have to look at the other stats to get a true measure of a pitcher’s value, and with closers it goes even deeper than that. For example, there are certain closers whose managers will only use them in save situations, other closers won’t come in unless they’re starting an inning. Then there’s my favorite, the closer who can only pitch the ninth inning.
The exquisite value of Mariano Rivera, throughout his career, has been that none of these silly rules have applied to him. No situation has ever been too dicey to bring Mo in, he’s never shied away from a six-out save. Rivera’s dominance hasn’t come under ridiculously controlled circumstances; he’s dominated in the most high-pressure situations possible in this game.
Which brings me to the reason why I believe Rivera has been the most important Yankee over the past 12 seasons. What happens on a baseball field can be sliced and diced into millions of statistical categories. On the field, however, the game remains largely psychological. Rivera looming in the bullpen forces opponents to change their approach.
Opposing teams know they have, at best, eight innings to get a lead. This means opposing managers will pinch hit earlier than they typically would. They’ll bunt to move runners into scoring position, they’ll send runners when they typically wouldn’t. The threat of Rivera forces teams into risky strategy, meaning Rivera’s influence affects not only the eighth and ninth innings of close games, but the sixth and seventh as well. Mo’s pressence looms even larger in the playoffs when runs are truly at a premium and the Yanks will stretch Rivera’s pitch count even further.
Think about that for a second. The widely held notion has always been that starting pitchers are more important, and more valuable, than closers because they pitch so many more innings. While that holds true in virtually all cases, has anyone really quantified the Rivera Effect properly? Over the past 12 seasons, Mo has either saved or won 550 out of 1,170 Yankee wins, 47% (not including the post season). It wouldn’t be outrageous to say that having Rivera in the bullpen has affected, either directly or indirectly, over 2,200 innings of play in those wins.
Honestly, I don’t think we’ve begun to scratch the surface of what Mariano Rivera has meant to this team, I don’t think we’ll fully understand until he’s gone.
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Thanks for the post, Brian. Personally, I think years from now it will be Rivera who will emerge as the greatest player of this generation of Yankees.
Coming tomorrow: Emma from Bronx Banter.
Thanks for the opportunity, Peter. I really appreciate it.
i agree Mo was the main man during that golden era, and the best closer of all time…nothing against Hoffman etc
42 Forever.
Rivera became my favorite Yankee in 1999 when I decided I didn’t want to be like the _other_ Jeter fangirls out there, and I have never regretted my decision.
For my 8th grade graduation my parents got me a signed portrait of Mo. It still hangs in my bedroom.
I don’t think you will get to many that disagree with you on this Blog…When Mo hangs em up, he will be sorely missed. Jeter has gotten all the attention but Mo has gotten it done… He will go down as the greatest in history and is a sure fire first ballot HOFer…Let’s hope Mo has a few more good seasons in that right shoulder…
Yeah Brian I’ve been pretty vocal about my belief that closers are overrated and a dominant starter is more important than a dominant closer but Mo isn’t just dominant, he’s a super hero. I frankly don’t know who I’d compare him to in terms of starters. Maybe Koufax (or Gibson) in his prime? I think those guys may be worth more in their best seasons than mo in his in terms of affect on innings of play. That’s no slight on mo, the greatest closer ever, just my view of the impact his position can have. Having the pleasure of watching him pitch is special for us all. I’ll tell my kids I got to see mo close out games. Good post.
Mo is god…..
Good post. We have been ridiculously spoiled as Yankees fans to have someone as durable and reliable as Mo over these past 12 seasons.
Brian, I completely agree with you on this article. Mariano’s impact toward the game is tremendous. He has been, and always will be known for being one of the most dominating relief pitchers in baseball history. Sadly, there are few people, if any, who can replace such a man, and in New York of all cities.
“he’s never shied away from a six out save”
…except for…um…oh yeah. 2001 world series. ouch.
Pete, if you think Mo has been this valuable (as I do), then why are you so insistent that Joba be a starter. This poster argues pretty forcefully that Mo affects much more than the 9th inning. I remember in ’96, when teams knew they had six innings to beat us, they started strategizing in the 5th. We can have that again with Joba in the ‘pen, and groom him to one day replace Mo (if such a thing is possible). Not that I don’t think Joba will be a dominant starter, but he can have just as big of an impact, if not bigger, in the bullpen (think about Papelbon, who’s not half the pitcher he is).
Ayeah, ayeah. Duh, well Mo is great as a closer, Joba would be great as a closer. Ad Infinitum, Ad Nauseum. Does it hurt? Does it hurt to be so stupid?
that was a good read. i completely agree with what you said at the end about us not understanding his effect until he’s gone. that’ll be so freakin weird not hearing the sandman song with a lead in the bottom 9th at the stadium.
Total agreement here! We really do need to be preparing now and not just think we can pick up some other team’s closer and they have the same attitude and affect as our Mo. We should have someone now who is able to work with, and learn from, Mo.
Nice job, Brian!
Don’t even want to think about life after Mo!
Good post, Brian.
Also, overall, I don’t think we Yankees fans take Mo for granted – we do understand how great he is, and what a singular talent he is. But on a game-to-game basis, well, that’s different. We’ve come to expect perfection and are often taken aback when he proves he’s only human.
He’ s not replaceable. And since the Yankees have been able to rely on one man for one job for so long, it will be difficult for whoever takes over the closer’s job when Mo retires. We’re going to have to be very patient, fellow Yankees fans.
I’m assuming that the writer is saying that the closer is important. Joba is a great point here. When Mo is gone, he could be the next Rivera. We all know that Joba doesn’t shy away from pressure situations.
Great post.
Mariano is almost taken for granted and his greatness is underappreciated. I can’t wait to hear if the ignoramus’s that vote for the HOF try to say he is not worthy after his 5 year waiting period.
Of all the Yankees shirts I have (and I have a few) I only wear two numbers; 42 and 2. There are other reasons for that, but primarily it is my tribute to the greatest Yankees of this generation.
small schools….
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From Wikipedia: “Rivera’s rookie year in the Major Leagues was 1995, initially as a starting pitcher. He found ‘mixed’ success, posting a 5–3 record and 5.51 ERA that year. As a result, he split time between the Yankees and their AAA affiliate in Columbus. As a 25 year-old rookie with major arm surgery in his past, Rivera’s role on the team was not guaranteed. The Yankees considered trading Rivera to the Detroit Tigers for David Wells”
2 BIG differences between Mo and Joba,
1) Mo was basically a failed starter. He was trdae bait. He was moved to the BP because he didn’t have enough pitches to start. The Yankees did NOT lose anything by moving Mo to the pen. Then did NOT lose a good starter. They certainly did not lose a potential Ace.
2) There is more to Mo then his pitches. His calm and mindset are part of his reasons for success. We know Joba has a great arm. But replacing Mo will be near impossible, as with Mo, you will be losing much more then just a great arm.
Like Papelbaum, if Joba does not have the ‘strength’ to pitch 175 IP a year, he will be moved to the pen. They moved Mo to the BP because he didn’t have the stuff to start. Same with Papelbaum.
Mo is the greatest closer in history. When you make an argument about SP vs. RP, using a 1 in a 10,000 pitcher as an example is not a valid argument.
I’d be curious to know how many wins/saves other ‘premier’ closers accounted for.
no DUH!
Let me elaborate.
The greatest closer EVER. Number retired, Monument Park, First Ballot HOF, should be unanimous. END OF STORY.
Let me elaborate.
The greatest closer EVER. Number retired, Monument Park, First Ballot HOF, should be unanimous. END OF STORY.
You’re all hooked on that “Joba in the bullpen” crack from 2007. You need some “Joba in the rotation” rehab.
“Joba in the rotation” will make your pee clear again!
Joba hasn’t proved anything in my eyes, except that he has potential. Let him have a role, and then pitch healthy for an entire season. The reason people keep arguing about the pen, is because that’s his most proven area of acomplishment, so far. If Joba comes out of the gate as a starter dominating, people will relax about him being in the pen. But he has to make people forget that part of his career. If he doesn’t perform as a starter, or gets hurt, the pen will always be looming.
It will be a welcome sound hearing Metallica blasting away over the public address speakers when the one and only Mariano comes in from the Yankee bullpen to close the door on a ballgame.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jRYDetbwegs
Relax all, Mo won’t be retiring any time soon.
Some of you must be unaware that Mo is not one of us. Who among us knew anything about him before he first appeared on the scene in NY?
Mo landed on this planet somewhere in the early 1990′s as a Vulcan defector. Apparently they think closers are over-rated there too.
As a Vulcan, he ages at an incredibly slower rate than we earthlings do. He should be good for a few more centuries of closing out games for us. He seem slowing down to you?
I’m surprised no one noticed the similarity to Mr. Spock.
Good post. I still think an ace starting pitcher or a great position player is more valuable than a closer (even Mo) but Mo is as good a closer as there is.
Actually, what happened to Mo, is that some time in the 90′s he fell on his arm, and after that his stuff was legendary. Here’s a clip of a similar incident…
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Heoa-AI42bA
Great post. I do not know what we will do without Mo.
I’ve never entirely understood the praise that’s lauded on Beane. While there’s no doubt that his approach seems to recognize and develop talent. I’m not entirely sure why he bothers. It seems to me that the A’s are little more than a farm for the other 29 teams.
Beane may find the talent, but he sure doesn’t know how to run a baseball team. Where’s the results? Where’s the post season appearances? They could and should be there with the talent they develop. But they get rid of it every time.
The A’s could be a much more successful team if he would keep players. They’d be much more financially successful too. It’s lose on the field, and ultimately lose in the bank too. It makes no sense.
darkmoon fire
Actually, Billy Beane has been extraordinarily successful with a small market team and the $ he has to work with.
Remember it’s the owner(s) that pay the bills, the GM just assembles the team with what he has to work with. If the owner is not willing to resign talented players at the going rate, what is left for Beane to do? He is forced to find newer, younger talent.
Oakland appears to have loosened the purse strings a little this off-season. But pitching is and always will be where you need to build. (in fact, Hudson, Mulder, and Zito were the primary reasons Oakland did so well for so long).
P.S. Go back and check Oakland’s playoff appearance history since Beane has been there. He’s made it there a lot more than most.
This was a terrific post, about a terrific player.
I didn’t realize that statistic – 550 out of 1,170 wins. Simply amazing. Couple that with the ERA+ data that shows Mo head and shoulders above other pitchers; or as CB put it when reviewing the data – “There are two groups of pitchers – Mariano Rivera, and everyone else.”
“Rivera became my favorite Yankee in 1999 when I decided I didn’t want to be like the other Jeter fangirls out there, and I have never regretted my decision.”
An unpopular yet excellent decision. Bravo!
i just love watchimg Mo pitch and this post has got me very excited in anticipation of seeing him in the new stadium.
He’s not only my favorite Yankee but my favorite athlete.
Good post about the most valuable Yankee.
Does CC know something that we don’t? I was reading some article this morning and here is what he said:
“he’s(CC) looking forward to having Joba Chamberlain and Mariano Rivera there to close out games for him, and he’s already talked to Chamberlain about it.”
Joba in bullpen?
There have been a bunch of invaluable Yanks since success began again after the ’94 strike. Jeter, Bernie, Posada, Girardi, Moose, A-Rod, Cone, Pettitte, Wang, etc etc … the list goes on. Some have been on the list a long time, some for only a season or two. Mo has been right at the top of the list, matched only by Jeter for the longest stretch of time.
How do you replace him when he inevitably hangs up his jock strap? Simple: You don’t. You hope things go well with the next guy. Maybe its someone like Melancon. Whomever it is will be a different pitcher and hopefully he won’t be compared harshly to Mo. Nobody can fill Mo’s (shoes) and it wouldn’t be fair to expect. Melancon will be Melancon and not Mo, and that shouldn’t be a knock against him. Tino Martinez wasn’t Don Mattingly either, and he turned out to be invaluable in his time here.
BTW, glad to see a move away from expensive-but-not-valuable Yanks has begun. CC and Teixiera are expensive, yes, but they’re very likely to turn out to be valuable for years. Hopefully AJ can prove to be valuable too.
Gotta go to Mo’s . . .
http://www.mosnewyorkgrill.com/
Very interesting post.
I’m not sure that mindset isn’t Mo’s greatest asset. Seems to just refuse to lose. When and if he does, he forgets it so quickly. Amazing player.
Great post Brian, thank you. So true – and it only makes that picture on the cover of Olney’s book all the more poignant. Great pitcher, great character, one amazing pitch. Definitely the 90s Yankee whose lore will be the most mythical.
small schools – you don’t put Joba in the bullpen for the same reasons you don’t put guys like Tim Lincecum & Scott Kazmir in the bullpen. Would they be good there? Of course they would. Could they go 170-180 innings in their first year? I’m not going to bother looking their stats up to see how many innings they logged as rookies … SHOULD they go 170-180 innings their first year? Unless they’d gradually built up to it in the minors already, the answer is ‘no’.
You only put a guy like him in the bullpen later in his career, if you blow out his arm with a heavy workload to start his career. Remember Kerry Wood? Sure, he would’ve been a super closer when he was in his early 20′s. Now that’s all he can do. Hmm … wonder why? We should have been starting to compare him to Clemens & Ryan at this stage in his career, not saying he could be a good closer if his arm doesn’t fall off.
The cool mound demeanor of Mo is also a weapon. So under control.
When hitters see a fishface like Papelbon, they get more determined to hit him. By the time he reaches Mo’s age he’ll be gone from burnout.
Rivera has been an incredible closer for his time, but, it’s really difficult to determine whether he’s the greatest ever or not when he’s compared with Gossage and Fingers. You simply can’t compare the eras of the three and four inning closers of the late ’60s to mid ’80s with the late ’80s to present day one inning closers. They are two entirely seperate entities. The best of the two eras are Gossage and Rivera, and that’s how they need to be viewed.
ANSKY
January 19th, 2009 at 10:07 am
Nobody can fill Mo’s (shoes) and it wouldn’t be fair to expect.
True story. I took my son to a Yankee game in Texas before the All-Star break in 1995. We got to the park early and as kids do – my son went down to the field level and tried to score an autograph.
A skinny young pitcher was walking out to the outfield before the game. My son asked him for his autograph. The young pitcher said he had to do his running and changed his shoes and left them by the side of the stands.
The pitcher said to my son – if you watch my shoes on the edge of the field and make sure none of the other players mess with them he would sign. (all I could think of was as a rookie – someone must have done something to his shoes previously!)
Ten/fifteen minutes later the young pitcher came back to the same spot and re-claimed his shoes. He also made good on the autograph promise and signed my son’s baseball.
That pitcher was Mo.
Nobody messed with his shoes that day – and 14 years later his shoes still can’t be filled.
Nice story, DT.
I’ve been to Mo’s restaurant ..it’s outstanding. First class just like Mo. A little pricey but worth it.
Go Yankees 2009 !!!
DT: That’s an amazing story.
My favorite Mo story is this one, though:
After the loss of the 2001 World Series, obviously, everyone was a little upset.
Not Rivera.
Why?
Well, not too long after that, American Airlines flight 587 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A.....Flight_587) had crashed.
Had the Yankees won the World Series, Enrique Wilson would have been on the flight.
Said Rivera: “I am glad we lost the World Series, because it means that I still have a friend.” (H/t buster olney _Last Night of the Yankees Dynasty_)
Though Joba is starter now, there is nothing that stops yanks from converting him to closer when mo retires. Think of Dave Righetti situation. He was an excellent starter, still he was converted to Closer when the need arose.
Mo has two more years in the contract. The way he is pitching, he could hang on for another year or two. By then the elite SP prospects such as Brackman will be in the majors and moving Joba to closer will be easier.
Mo is by far my favorite Yankee player, not just for his performance on the field, but for who he is off the field. He’s quiet and dignified…….and the fiercest competitor you’d ever want to meet. I believe Tom Verducci said Pablebon was the toughest competitor in baseball recently on the Hot Stove show – I think Tom was getting the words “showboat” and “competitor” mixed up. He may not look it, but Mo is a lion and he’s got the heart of one. He is the most amazingly laid back player I’ve ever seen – falling asleep in the dugout in the middle of games? It’s this coolness under pressure (actually, at all times, regardless of situation) that is his best attribute – right ahead of that ridiculously successful cutter. Closers have to be tough (I don’t want to kill Pablebon – he’s very good) – I think they have the toughest job in baseball. Mo is able to put things in their proper perspective and that’s why he has been able to bounce back from a couple of devastating moments. Mo is revered throughout the game – I recall the photograph of him showing Roy Halladay the grip on his cutter. That just speaks a thousand words. There will never be anyone else like Mo.
As an FYI:
Tonight is going to be a cool lineup on the MLB network:
Prime 9 – top rookies and top hitting seasons
Pride & Perserverance – about the Negro Leagues
The Seasons show spotlighting 1986 was amazing….how appropriate. I wondered what happened to Mike Scott – I haven’t seen him in years. One ex-Sox I really like is Dwight Evans……Think about the rookies that debuted that year: Bonds, Canseco, Larkin, Maddux, Joyner………
I admit I had tears in my eyes seeing Bill Buckner celebrated at Fenway last year – even though it never would have happened had the Sox not won a WS. That was heartwarming – he took the brunt of the blame for that Sox loss unfairly. I had a hard time watching Dave Henderson hit his HR againt Donnie Moore, knowing what happened to Donnie a few years later. It was a very well done show – they touched on this as well.
Great story, DT. I think we’ve all seen that there is much more to Mo than stats! His character (which he attributes to his faith) has helped him operate so confidently in high pressure situations. He won’t be easily replaced (in our hearts probably never!)and it won’t be by just athletic or baseball standards.
If Joba is destined to be our next closer, he will certainly have to do some growing up! But I’m really with those that see Joba as a starter who will eventually dominate the game and moving him to the bullpen would be a mistake.
Also, we should all remember that no one can take Mariano’s number when he retires. #42 was retired by baseball in honor of Jackie Robinson and Rivera is, and will be the last to wear that number on a daily basis.
I have to beg to differ (strongly), Green Beret. That’s the same argument that Goose (who sometimes is bitter about Rivera) uses, but Mo has never been just a one inning pitcher. He’s often been called upon to get at least one or two outs in the 8th -he’s been the safety valve for Yankee managers. Set up guy not getting it done? Let Mo come in – and invariably he gets the job done. I forget which game it was in the 2003 ALDS (game 7?), but remember when Mo pitched 3 shut out innings against the Sox? Pure brilliance. His regular season numbers are remarkable – his post-season ones are out of this world. Mo is unique – he is not like the other closers of his generation and should not be lumped in with them.
Seriously, this blog and it’s weird text formatting is annoying. How about some good ol’ HTML?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.c.....ml?eref=T1
I agree with the writer, but isn’t this comment interesting?
Even after another smart and productive offseason for the Red Sox and another mega-spending spree by the Yankees, the Rays remain very much a threat to repeat in the AL East.
**Why were the Sox smart and productive this off-season? They took huge risks – that’s smart and productive? Why weren’t the Yankees smart and productive? Oh, that’s right, they weren’t – they just spent $$$ indiscriminantly. Unbelievable.
That said, the AL East should make for some seriously entertaining baseball for years to come. The Orioles are improving (they aren’t that good right now, but they are not pushovers) and the Jays would be a solid contender in most divisions.
Betsy
January 19th, 2009 at 11:40 am
I have to beg to differ (strongly), Green Beret. That’s the same argument that Goose (who sometimes is bitter about Rivera) uses, but Mo has never been just a one inning pitcher. He’s often been called upon to get at least one or two outs in the 8th he’s been the safety valve for Yankee managers. Set up guy not getting it done? Let Mo come in and invariably he gets the job done. I forget which game it was in the 2003 ALDS (game 7?), but remember when Mo pitched 3 shut out innings against the Sox? Pure brilliance. His regular season numbers are remarkable – his post-season ones are out of this world. Mo is unique – he is not like the other closers of his generation and should not be lumped in with them.
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No matter how strongly you beg to differ, there is a huge difference in closers pitching 2-4 innings nearly every time out and one that pitches mainly one inning and sometimes two innings on occassion. It’s the difference between starters of the ’50s-’70s and starters now. They may be classified as starters, but, it’s an entirely different breed. Can you imagine any starter over the next 10 years or so having 150-200 complete games and 40 shutouts? Not likely.
What I said has nothing to do with your thinking that Gossage is bitter….it’s fact. There is a vast difference in the two types of closers, and they can’t be compared. Over the last 25 years, Rivera is the best. Whether he could do the same thing as Gossage and Fingers did is unknown.
Hey, guys, I know it’s off topic, but did anyone here realize Felix Hernandez becomes a free agent at age 25?
Pete, whats going on with the randy levine subpoena and more public money for the new stadium?
Rebecca–Optimist Prime–Staying to write the story
January 19th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
Hey, guys, I know it’s off topic, but did anyone here realize Felix Hernandez becomes a free agent at age 25?
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Hernandez would make the perfect closer replacement for Rivera.
OK seriously Gus Johnson and the other guy I can’t remember his name right now announced Jerome James is out for the season w/ a ruptured achilles tendon, He called it and I quote “A basketball tragedy” Should I not laugh at this !
You guys seen this:
http://www.battingstanceguy.com/2006/10/31/yankees
Bill Sheridan named Giants D Coordiator
I’m Surprised…. Sheridan our LB coach…he has huge shoes to fill.
Just to bring some more advanced statistics into the discussion here: there is something called the Leverage Index which measures the relative importance of a given situation. It does this by seeing how each possible at bat result would affect the win probability, averages these values together, and scales them so that the average situation is 1.00. Top of the third, tie game, no one on has a LI of 1.00, for example. The highest LI possible is 10.9, with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 9th (or the bottom of any extra inning) with the home team down by 1.
What does this mean for Mo and what we’re saying here? Brian is essentially making the point that Mo is being brought into high leverage situations and that this thus increases his value. In 2008, Mo pitched with a 1.92 average LI, meaning that the average game situation in which he pitched was 1.92 times more influential than the average game situation. That might seem like a large number, but Mo was only 10th among qualified relievers in average LI. He was 16th in 2007 (with a 1.78), and 17th in 2006 (1.84). If someone wants to go further back that would be great (a brief check of 1996-2000 shows similar results), but I think you see the general trend here: Mo is not being used more effectively than the average closer.
Now, this does not go as far to address how valuable he’s actually been. But if you are of the opinion, as Brian is, that the average closer’s value is diminished by managers’ paying attention to a “silly stat,” then you have to lump Mo in that group.
“By then the elite SP prospects such as Brackman will be in the majors and moving Joba to closer will be easier.”
I think Brackman is more likely to close than Joba. Because of his contract the Yanks will need to decide what to do with Brackman earlier than normal. If he doesn’t develop his changeup, and/or injuries prevent him from getting innings in, he could be moved to the pen. Unless Joba encounters serious injury issues that would prevent him from being an effective starter, I think the Yanks are committed to having Joba “be their Josh Beckett” for years to come.
I have no evidence of any of that, just a personal thought…
David:
That stat in and of itself devalues closers. Most of the time they’re brought in to start an inning. How many of the relievers before Mo on that list were closers????
Yup I mean would anyone be surprised if Andrew Brackman this yr. or next debuts in the 2nd half and becomes a kick ass John Wetteland in his primes w/ more devasting stuff ? Arod before Brack was drafted swore this guy is the real deal, when he watched him pitch at a college game he attended Alex said he never believed that Andrew would fall to us. So yeh watch out for that kid.
Of course, this exact philosophy is precisely why the Billy Beane A’s lost in the playoffs every year to the Yankees during their dynasty. The A’s had better starting pitching and a star-studded lineup (Damon, Giambi, Chavez, etc.) but the Yanks would hang close, eventually hit the soft underbelly of the A’s bullpen and it would be all over.
Granted, with Beane’s payroll, he has to prioritize, but I still don’t think the current statistical models capture to true value of a good bullpen. Just look at the Mets last year.
rodg12:
Every single one of them.
Brandon, with the shear numbers of hard throwing young pitchers that NYY has on the way up, I think what happens is that NYY will start filtering them into the bullpen and moving out pitchers like Veras, Ramirez and even Bruney, along with Rivera’s retirement. They will work there for a year or two until the starters either move on in trades or Free Agency or injuries. Some will be traded to bring in needed parts. Pitchers like Robertson, Cox and others will be traded, because NYY has better waiting to replace them.
For those who believe otherwise (Jason in Salt Lake City);
At December’s U.N. Global Warming conference in Poznan, Poland, 650 of the world’s top climatologists stood up and said man-made global warming is a media generated myth without basis. Said climatologist Dr. David Gee, Chairman of the International Geological Congress, “For how many years must the planet cool before we begin to understand that the planet is not warming?”
http://www.mlive.com/opinion/f.....al_wa.html
Brandon, you try to think WAYYYYYYY to much.. Let thing’s work themselves out.
*and in other matters that could have an effect on Yankee decisions…*
“In his final acts of clemency, President George W. Bush on Monday commuted the prison sentences of two former U.S. Border Patrol agents whose convictions for shooting a Mexican drug dealer ignited fierce debate about illegal immigration.”
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/s.....TE=DEFAULT
For any posters who may have had dreams of Roger Clemens getting the good ole bye from a good ole boy, time to take a cold shower and let reality seep into your pores.
As an aside, since I don’t really know the mechanics of presidential pardons, since Clemens has not yet been convicted of a crime, I didn’t really understand what kind of pardon people were talking about – unless they hoped that Bush would say “And in the matter of my good friend Roger Clemens, if he’s convicted of anything, well ha-ell, I’m settin’ him free ahaid of tahm!”
So the Roger debacle will continue. And Andy Pettitte will end up front and center at some point, with Roger hoping against hope Andy no longer misremembers the “facts”…
David:
I see another flaw in the statistic, at least the way it was explained in your post. I take your statement “In 2008, Mo pitched with a 1.92 average LI” to mean that the number gets recalculated each batter he faces. Therefore, since Mo has such a low WHIP (0.88 last year) he doesn’t put many runners of his own on and therefore pitches in lower leverage situations during his outings. Could you list the pitchers that are ahead of Mo on that list?
except this post omits the fact that Rivera has had trouble pitching in tie games as seen in many instances this past season.
David,
Do you have a link for the methodology behind that leverage stat? Also, where do you find the individual player stats?
Rhapsody
When they realize that they can’t deny this anymore they will just turn the argument around to global cooling and we still need them to fix it (probably even more than ever! lol). It’s just a power grab either way.
What’s worse is that so many people bought into it so easily. That’s the scariest thing.
Brian:
I found it on Fangraphs. You can look at the explanation here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs.....age-index/
You can go here to see the leaders and rankings:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leade.....38;month=0
Sort by pLI descending to get Davids list.
The problem is, David is looking at the wrong stat. He’s looking at pLi which has the inherent flaw I discussed in my previous post. He should be looking at gmLI which gives the Leverage Index when a player enters the game. That stat ranks Mo 3rd among all qualified relievers.
Brad Pitt’s better,
I agree, it’s a joke.
Will there be a place in monument park for Mo upon retirement? His should be the last one in line, closing it out as always.
“David:
That stat in and of itself devalues closers.”
I need to take that statement back, because it’s not true. The stat actually values closers higher than other relievers because they enter the game later.
A bit much is made of the long relief outings of an early era. Yes, for much of his primte Goose averaged more than an inning per appearance, but so, too has Rivera. The different between them is less than two outs per outing. Significant, yes but they are on the same planet.
Mo’s ERA + as a revlier (199) is far superior to Gossage (94) and his WHIP is 1.020 compared to 1.253. Gossage faced more batters per outing, but they had a lot more success.
rodg12:
You’re absolutely right about that and I should have looked at their average leverage when they entered the game. Here it is:
2008: 3rd (1.94)
2007: 24th (1.55)
2006: 11th (1.73)
And here he is during the dynasty years, 96-2000:
1996 (Setting up Wetteland): 59th (1.34)
1997: 7th (1.91)
1998: 9th (1.88)
1999: 12th (1.74)
2000: 14th (1.74)
So it’s a little better, but nothing exceptional. Mo has been used just like every other closer. On the bright side, we can see that Joe Girardi is using him better.
Brian:
Here’s the methodology link:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/m.....situations
Scroll down to “Recipe 1″ for the specific methodology, though the whole article is a good read.
Here’s a link to the whole leverage table:
http://www.insidethebook.com/li.shtml
And here’s the link to the player stats:
http://www.fangraphs.com/leade.....38;month=0
pLI is total average leverage, gmLI is leverage upon entering the game
The notion that President Bush was going to pardon Roger Clemens was always a silly one. But a person need not have been convicted or even charged with a crime to receive a pardon. The most notable example of this would be the pardon issued by President Ford to President Nixon in 1974.
I just wanted to say that the author’s statement, backed up with nothing, that runs come at a premium in the post-seasons is cliche, trite, and untrue.
Gm 1 BOS 2 @ TB 0 Fri Oct. 10
Gm 2 BOS 8 @ TB 9 Sat Oct. 11
Gm 3 TB 9 @ BOS 1 Mon Oct. 13
Gm 4 TB 13 @ BOS 4 Tue Oct. 14
Gm 5 TB 7 @ BOS 8 Thu Oct. 16
Gm 6 BOS 4 @ TB 2 Sat Oct. 18
Gm 7 BOS 1 @ TB 3 Sun Oct. 19
Gm 1 LAD 2 @ PHI 3 Thu Oct. 9
Gm 2 LAD 5 @ PHI 8 Fri Oct. 10
Gm 3 PHI 2 @ LAD 7 Sun Oct. 12
Gm 4 PHI 7 @ LAD 5 Mon Oct. 13
Gm 5 PHI 5 @ LAD 1 Wed Oct. 15
Runs are no harder to score in the playoffs than they are normally.
Aaron, so results of two series, with 9 of 11 games played in hitter-friendly parks prove that runs are no harder to score in the playoffs than they are normally? Sound logic.
Sorry, 9 of 12, not 11.
86w183
January 19th, 2009 at 2:46 pm
A bit much is made of the long relief outings of an early era. Yes, for much of his primte Goose averaged more than an inning per appearance, but so, too has Rivera. The different between them is less than two outs per outing. Significant, yes but they are on the same planet.
Mo’s ERA + as a revlier (199) is far superior to Gossage (94) and his WHIP is 1.020 compared to 1.253. Gossage faced more batters per outing, but they had a lot more success.
————————————————————
How well did the hitters do in Gossage’s first inning and how well did they do in his third inning? Also, those numbers you have also figure in his work as a starter. He started 37 games and completed 16, but, not a good ERA, and over 1550 relief innings.
http://www.baseball-reference......=gossari01
Don’t know about the first inning vs beyond that, but the numbers I used eliminated both guys’ stats as a starter.
GB 7—
I don’t have time to do a ton of research, but looking at game logs from two Gossage seasons it appears his longer outings were among his most successful/dominant. When he stunk he was usually out of there quickly. Thus, the longer stints may not have worked against his overall stats after all, though it is admittedly a very small sample size.
Suffice to say I’d love to have either one of them, any time.
Dear God Peter, when are you returning to this full time? I appreciate these “Pinch Hitters” but they just lack your ferocity!
Rhapsody and Brad’s brother,
You’re both right! Thanks for the link!
Nick in SF,
He DOES have until tomorrow at about noon to sneak Roger in there! Maybe Rocket will be on the phone all night!