Three Yankees in ESPN’s Top 100
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jan 22, 2009 
Print This Post
| 
Email This Post
The estimable Keith Law of ESPN.com has his top 100 prospects up today. You can read the first 25 for free, the rest are on Insider.
He has Austin Jackson (46), Jesus Montero (83) and Andrew Brackman (95) in the top 100.
ok for any statheads here which offense is better:
Team A:
6/46/.263/.333/.370
1) 7/51/.297/.354/.425
2) 11/65/.311/ .376/.464
3) 11/65/.311/ .376/.464
4) 35/111/.284/.401/.555
5) 25/89/.267/.364/.472
6) 16/78/.272/.335/.434
7) 15/66/.267/.383/.448
9) 16/52/.227/.330/.389
team b:
1) 15/65/.276/.351/.417
16/79/.300/.340/.468
2) 12/68/.294/.366/.415
3) 32/108/.286/.381/.521
4) 39/116/.294/.397/.564
5) 26/78/.247/.360/.454
6) 17/75/.277/.360/.443
7) 16/67/.266/.363/.434
9) 10/66/.280/.345/.402
anybody wanna take a shot?
There is also a list of 10 prospects who just missed the top 100. Dellin Betances is on that list.
keith laws list is rubbish….Tabata ranked higher than Montero? what a joke
but its only his opinion
I’m game.. I’ll pick Team A.
Team B looks like it has Giambi on it but it’ll probably end up being Mantle.
its nice that the first 25 are free but NONE OF THEM ARE YANKEES and those are the main ones I want to read. Can any one post links so we can view the others if we are not an insider or is that impossible? At least can someone post what it says about ajax, montero and brackman.
I like how montero falls in rank because he may not be a catcher when he finally gets up here. What if he is though? Does he rise back up?
Players 2 and 3 on Team A have the exact same stats. Is that right?
steve (ny): Brackman IS 7 feet tall. or close enough. can you talk about him a little, since you didn’t really answer the first question about him?
Keith Law: (2:27 PM ET ) He was listed at 7′0″ on his Cape roster, but I think he’s actually 6′10″. Not that this matters. He’s really tall. 91-97 mph fastball, can add and subtract a little with it, good knuckle-curve with depth, command has always been an issue, delivery is good for his size but his size will always make it hard to keep the delivery together. Upside is enormous, #1 starter.
RANK PLAYER POS. ORGANIZATION ‘08 RANK #AGE
46 Austin Jackson CF New York Yankees
TOP ‘08 LEVEL: AA (Trenton) 24 22
Jackson’s star has dimmed over the past year or so, as an expected breakout hasn’t come. He’s shown that he takes a while to adjust to each new level or challenge. He’s still a great athlete, but it’s not translating into baseball skills as quickly as hoped.
Jackson’s tools grade out as more or less average across the board, with nothing standing out as plus except for the possibility that he’ll become an above-average hitter (for average, that is). He had good speed but is, at best, a 55 runner now, although he has good instincts on the bases. He has gap power and can jerk a ball over the fence to left, but doesn’t project as more than a 15-20 homer guy unless he fills out substantially.
He’s solid in center field with a good arm, but probably isn’t a Gold Glove candidate. Because he lacks a major weakness, he’s still a valuable prospect, and he’ll play all of 2009 at age 22, so he has room for growth. It’s just hard to see the ceiling that appeared to be there a year or two ago.
RANK PLAYER POS. ORGANIZATION ‘08 RANK #AGE
83 Jesus Montero C New York Yankees
TOP ‘08 LEVEL: A (Charleston) UR 19
Montero’s a catcher in name only, but his bat is very promising. Montero played the whole year at 18 in the Sally League and had no problem making consistent contact. He has a quick bat and takes a healthy cut, with plus raw power that’s around average in-game right now. He extends his arms well for good plate coverage, adjusting well to off-speed stuff so far, but doesn’t have much patience and will have to work the count more as the quality of pitching improves. Behind the plate, he has an average arm but his throwing motion is long and it takes forever for him to get from the crouch to his release. He’s already enormous for a catcher, listed at 6-4, 225 pounds, and is only going to outgrow the position with time, but his bat will play at first base.
I will pick team B. The numbers just look more consistent to me.
RANK PLAYER POS. ORGANIZATION ‘08 RANK #AGE
95 Andrew Brackman RHP New York Yankees
TOP ‘08 LEVEL: Hawaii League 100 23
Brackman returned from Tommy John surgery to pitch in the Hawaiian League this fall, showing the same velocity, 91-97 mph, he had before he hurt his elbow, but below-average command, which is very typical of pitchers who’ve just had the zipper. He threw a solid-average knuckle-curve in the mid-70s before hurting his arm, but hasn’t found his feel for the pitch in his limited action since the surgery, and his changeup was rudimentary even before he got hurt. When he was healthy, Brackman offered the two pitches plus good downhill plane on his fastball — he’s about 6-foot-10 — and a surprising ability to repeat his delivery, although that went out the window when he hurt his elbow and started trying to compensate for it. His pitching experience was limited, since he also played basketball at N.C. State and didn’t give it up until his junior year, but there is significant upside here if he can stay on the mound for most or all of 2009.
Boof,
Did you see tabata’s numbers in double A altoona? He was a beast. And remember how he used to be on cashman’s untouchable list along with ajax, hughes and chamberlain. Yeaa, he did not all of a sudden lose that skill when the yanks traded him. And montero was in single A while tabata was in double A.
Tabata line in AA Altoona: 348 avg 402 obp 562 slg 964 OPS with 8 SB in 89 at bats
Montero in A: 326 avg 376 obp 491 slg 867 OPS in 525 at bats
I realize the sample sizes are all screwed up and tabata was terrible in trenton last year but his skill set did not disappear after 79 mediocre games in trenton. He is the same guy that was our best position prospect last year. i am not surprised he is high on that list.
Thanks Steve! With betances and brackman, we must have two of the biggest pitching prospects in baseball – it will take them a while to get their mechanics but they should stay relatively healthy after they work out the kinks in their motion if they make it. But they need to find a smooth delivery first and make sure they stick to it. Otherwise, the injuries will pile up throughout their whole careers.
web, thx good catch, it should be:
Team A
6/46/.263/.333/.370
1) 7/51/.297/.354/.425
2) 11/65/.311/ .376/.464
3) 18/79/.286/..388/.474
4) 35/111/.284/.401/.555
5) 25/89/.267/.364/.472
6) 16/78/.272/.335/.434
7) 15/66/.267/.383/.448
9) 16/52/.227/.330/.389
Team B
16/79/.300/.340/.468
1) 15/65/.276/.351/.417
2) 12/68/.294/.366/.415
3) 32/108/.286/.381/.521
4) 39/116/.294/.397/.564
5) 26/78/.247.360/.454
6) 17/75/.277/.360/.443
7) 16/67/.266/.363/.434
9) 10/66/.280/.345/.402
copying from spreadsheet sucks…..
o yeah, there is no giambi here…
“C Jesus Montero, 19, batted .326 (171-for-525) with 86 runs, 34 doubles, 17 home runs and 87 RBI in 132 games with Single-A Charleston, recording the most hits among any minor league catcher in 2008. He also led the Yankees organization in batting average, runs, hits and RBI last season, while leading all South Atlantic League catchers with a .993 fielding percentage (4E, 588 TC). and will be the youngest player in the team’s spring training camp for the second consecutive year.”
Montero has a special bat and looks like Albert Pujols at the plate
Steve,
Do you mind posting tabata’s as well and betances if he has one – he is supposed to be under the 10 players that were close to making the top 100. It would be much appreciated.
OK Dave. You’re probably going to get me busted for copywright infringement:
32 Jose Tabata OF Pittsburgh Pirates
TOP ‘08 LEVEL: AA (Altoona) 21 20
Your guess is as good as mine at this point. Tabata can hit, and for most of his pro career, he has hit, with a career .296/.366/.401 line up through Double-A. Almost all came before his 20th birthday. But Tabata took the first few months of 2008 off, at least mentally; he showed up at the ballpark, but his attitude was horrible — failing to run out ground balls, not working at-bats and earning a suspension for throwing a tantrum on the field after a call went against him.
I’m sure Yankee fans who saw him play or followed his 0-fers in the box scores were absolutely galled to see him go to the Pirates and turn the jets back on, as he hit .348/.402/.562 with 11 extra-base hits (he had just 12 in four months with the Yankees) and eight stolen bases in just 22 games. That’s the Jose Tabata who was in my top 10 two years ago: a teenager who showed he could hit against older competition in full-season ball.
When Tabata feels like it, he can hit. He has outstanding hand-eye coordination and recognizes pitches well, so he squares balls up well and doesn’t swing and miss that often. (Even during his off year in Trenton this past season, he only struck out in 15 percent of his plate appearances.) He has above-average power, but it hasn’t shown up in games other than his tiny sample with Altoona. He can run, and does it well, going 18-for-20 in steals over all of 2008.
The Pirates have returned him to center field for now, but the presence of Andrew McCutchen makes it unlikely that Tabata will play there in the majors; he has the range and plus arm to be an asset in right. Where he goes from here is up to him. He could end up in the top 10 again next offseason if he plays hard all year in 2009, and he’s indicated to Pirates’ brass that he realizes he needs to grow up. If not, he’ll just keep dropping until he’s off the list entirely.
Dellin Betances, RHP, New York Yankees: Betances has a great frame and big fastball, but poor command and control and iffy secondary stuff hold him back. He’s all upside, but there’s a lot of development between where he is now and where he could be if it all clicks.
ham fighters-
i’m no stat head, but team b scored 99 runs more so i’d say that’s the best offense.
im starting my 2009 fantasy baseball projections and the above #’s are the first set of 2009 projections i’m entering.
so far one took team a, one took team b, and i think it’s really close, but im leaning toward team b.
anyone else wanna take a shot?
Montero will be number 1 next year… watch!
Let’s go spot by spot and pick the better of the two from each team:
1) Push
Team B by a landslide. Almost worth 2 pts.
2) Team A
3) Team B
4) Push
5) Slight, slight win for A or a Push – give it half a pt
6) Team B
7) Team A
9) Slight, slight win for B or a Push – give it half a pt
Team A wins 2.5 pts.
Team B wins 3.5 pts (maybe more with the 8 hole difference).
I’d say Team B is the better offense.
I had heard Jackson was an excellent center fielder. Are their defenesive metrics for the minors?
‘Montero will be number 1 next year… watch!”
Nope, it will be Heyward.
i should point out that im not a stathead, i just enter the projections from people who know something, average them out, run them through a mock draft and pick out the best values in each round.
i won both my leagues last year with the same draft strategy.
“i should point out that im not a stathead”
i don’t think stat heads call themselves “statheads” lol
Wasn’t Law entirely underwhelmed by Tabata when he was a Yankee prospect and wasn’t he the first one to start talking about how he got passed by Jackson? Now all of a sudden he ‘could be top 10′? lol please, seems like just yet another case of ESPN guys hating on the Yankee farm.
It speaks volumes that the best Tabata story from his time in Trenton had nothing to do with his baseball skills, but was instead about Reegie Corona kicking his azz in the dugout…
The Jackson scouting report would be very, very disappointing……….that is, if I took Keith Law seriously, which, luckily, I don’t.
ham fighter-
isn’t the second number rbi’s?
Montero also lead the sally league in most defensive stats.even though he was sharing the catching duties with Austin Romine
Montero has massive power potential but also a very good hitter.and the best bat in our minors since Derek Jeter
i think he will eventually be a LF/DH in he majors,but they should keep him at catcher as long as they can
Well scrap that previous post…..the 3 hold probably becomes a push now. Much improved counting stats for team B but the averages are a push. The 8 hole guy still wins it for team B IMO.
Ham – is your second stat on their R or RBI. Also, are these the five cats for the fantasy league??
So ajax has a problem adjusting at a new level but if history repeats itself, should excel next year in double A. Montero is a monster at the plate but his downside is he is too big to stay at catcher most likely – that production out of a catcher would be one of the best in the game most likely if those numbers can transfer over to first without hesitation. Brackman has a loong way to go, it seems losing some control and a repeatable delivery after coming back. Its good his velocity if there because it should be and his control and delivery will come in time. He needs to work on that changeup though or find a new pitch because two plus pitches at his age is fantastic but a starter needs more than just two pitches. he has time.
This about Ajax is funny to me: “He’s shown that he takes a while to adjust to each new level or challenge. He’s still a great athlete, but it’s not translating into baseball skills as quickly as hoped.” I know what he means when they say as quickly as they had hoped but the guy is 22 – its not like he does not have some time to develop. hIS second half of 2007 in tampa was leaps and bounds ahead of his production in 2006 and his numbers in double A are not nearly as mediocre as his first year in A ball although they are not great either. I would think the yanks will let him continue to play in trenton to start the season and see how he plays to start the year after ST. I would expect at least a 300 avg and a 380 obp in his second stint in trenton and he will probably be transitioning to scranton at some point next year. If he continues to take over a year to develop at each new level – he will start 2010 in tampa and be up in the majors no later than mid 2010. That leaves us a two year gap to fill in center. Its either gardner, melky or a midseason pickup at this point.
“keith laws list is rubbish….Tabata ranked higher than Montero? what a joke
but its only his opinion”
Law should stick to the majors. Tabata is better than Montero? I am sure he wont be saying anything like that when Montero hits 20-25 HR’s at low A this year.
CHONE projections for 2009:
Team A (the nation)
ells:7/51/.297/.354/.425
Ped: 11/65/.311/ .376/.464
Youk: 18/79/.286/..388/.474
Papi 35/111/.284/.401/.555
Bay 25/89/.267/.364/.472
Lowell 16/78/.272/.335/.434
Nancy 15/66/.267/.383/.448
Lugi 6/46/.263/.333/.370
Vteck 16/52/.227/.330/.389
Team B(the empire)
Johnny: 15/65/.276/.351/.417
Vista boy: 12/68/.294/.366/.415
Mr Clean 32/108/.286/.381/.521
Cravat Boy: 39/116/.294/.397/.564
Swisher 26/78/.247.360/.454
Godzilla 17/75/.277/.360/.443
Po 16/67/.266/.363/.434
Cano 16/79/.300/.340/.468
Melky 10/66/.280/.345/.402
The problem is, Jackson really hasn’t had that much difficulty when you factor everything in.
I am not sure why a .285/.354/.419 line in AA at the age of 21 qualifies as “difficulty adjusting to a new level.”
Nevermind the fact that he scorched High-A pitching in the only half season he was there.
THANKS STEVE! You are my hero!
Woo Hoo!!!!
Ok guys anyone who wants to organize a group trip email me at Gmarchesej@aol.com. I wouldn’t get too worked up over that list, its just his opinion.
I think we should try and get a fantasy league going from the folks here at the blog. Yahoo hosts free leagues I believe.
LoHud Yankees draft first round:
jeter
arod
tex
manny
damon (RAB) (yankeesRay)
mo
sheets (dave)
posada
youk (sox troll)
santana (for hughes…)
vlad (sam i am)
moose
sorry yankees ray was for manny
epost:
MaineYankee
January 22nd, 2009 at 3:04 pm
GreenBeret7 I go see Trenton when they come to Portland to play the Sea Dogs. Who do you see coming up that is one to watch in regards to high prospect?
——————————————————————————————
Most of the Tampa team from ‘08, and, possibly Wilkins De La Rosa by late May. A skinny left handed fireballer with a Bugs Bunny changeup and a cutter. The only real offensive possibility may be Seth Fortenberry, a right fielder, left handed bat with power and speed to hit 20 or more homers and speed to steal 20 to 25 bases. Great glove and better arm at all thee positions.
One other guy to watch is Tim Battle. Great speed, some power and could be a fine center fielder. His career was derailed by bone cancer a few years ago and they had to cut through the chest muscles to remove a rib. He had a ton of talent, and he’s a good guy, and still young at 24. He’s definately somebody to pull for. He’s still i the organization because he’s a favorite of George Steinbrenner (who paid all of his medical and rehab bills).
Montero’s hitting is extremely impressive for a catcher – he has everything you could want to see in an A ball catcher. What kind of power will 17 homeruns from a 19 year old translate into in the major leagues at age 27 – I get goosebumps just thinking about it.
Boof,
What kind of arm do most scouts say montero has? I thought he had a very solid arm but Law says average? Do you know what the percentage of runners he threw out last year? I did think he was above average defensively but Law makes him out to see average to below avg.
I can see where Law is coming from in the AJax post more than what he wrote about montero’s defense because the synopsis reflects an air of disappointment for AJax and his season while not terrible was somewhat disappointing in that he regressed to a greater extent than im sure most would have predict by a move from A to AA. Ranking Tabata over Ajax was questionable as tabata certainly regressed far more than AJax last year. Tabata is put in a far too optimistic light after his attitude destroyed his game last year which should not happen when you become a professional even at 20 years old. I also did not like Law’s comments about jACKSON being average in every category – he is 21 and 10 homers over 500 at bats and 33 doubles at 21 can easily turn into 25 homers over 600 at bats at 27. he also had 19 steals in 25 attempts. If jackson continues with the potential he showed last year we are looking at 25 HR, 20 SB and a 320 400 line with solid defense in center. That is certainly an above average player across the board.
Manny in pinstripes guarantees a ring, unforunately it also guarantees a lot of “Manny being Manny”.
Ham – if i chose sheets in the first round of a fantasy draft, you have permission to take away my keyboard.
Boof,
Were you serious comparing Montero to Albert Pujols?
GreenBeret7 Thanks. I like to have some idea who to watch when I go.
I have a question – is kevin whelan ever going to learn how to throw the ball over the plate. If he does, he could be lights out but he continues to walk about one batter per inning. His hits per 9, strike outs per 9 both outstanding but his BB per 9 is just horrible. This is his scouting report rating – K rating = 100, Efficiency = 97, Control = 9.
dave, we kid because we love…
“Manny in pinstripes guarantees a ring”
Oh?
Can someone with access give us a run down of the Sox prospects? Not looking for cut and paste of the text. Just wondering how many are on there, and at what spots.
Like what Pete did for the Yanks.
Al from BK
January 22nd, 2009 at 3:00 pm
“keith laws list is rubbish….Tabata ranked higher than Montero? what a joke
but its only his opinion”
Law should stick to the majors. Tabata is better than Montero? I am sure he wont be saying anything like that when Montero hits 20-25 HR’s at low A this year.
————————————————————
Monero’s not going to stay in Charleston in 2009. He and Romine will be catching in Tampa (High A Ball).
Holdstrong… cutting and pasting from the last thread…
#7 – Lars Anderson
#52 – Michael Bowden
#81 – Nick Hagadone
#90 – Junichi Tazawa
#94 – Daniel Bard
Dave
Montero has a very good arm.His arm strength plays down because he has a slow transfer, and he threw out just 25 percent of basestealers in 2008.
““Manny in pinstripes guarantees a ring”
Oh?”
I stand by this and since it will never happen I can never be proven wrong
If Manny came here the offense would be unstoppable and make up for any short-comings the pitching staff might have.
“Monero’s not going to stay in Charleston in 2009. He and Romine will be catching in Tampa (High A Ball).”
I stand corrected then GB. I hope he climbs that ladder but not to fast.
I know ham i know.
Jonathan
January 22nd, 2009 at 3:33 pm
Boof,
Were you serious comparing Montero to Albert Pujols?
he looks like Pujols at the plate…bit un-fair to say he will produce like Pujols.but Montero has huge Power Potential and if that transfers into the Majors the might want to move him from catcher anyway,so there is not so much wear and tear on his body
Thanks Steve B!
What rank did Law give the yanks organization yesterday?
Boof: “Montero also lead the sally league in most defensive stats.even though he was sharing the catching duties with Austin Romine”
Boof,
How did montero lead the league in most defensive stats when he only threw guys out at a 25 percent clip? Do they really expect him to be able to catch in the majors when he is putting up a number like that?
“the offense would be unstoppable ”
if i had a dime for the amount of times i’ve heard/read this over the past few years…
MaineYankee
January 22nd, 2009 at 3:34 pm
GreenBeret7 Thanks. I like to have some idea who to watch when I go.
————————————————————
The pitching staff is where the talent is. You can expect closer Jonathan Ortiz to be in Trenton by mid-season, too.
Damon Sublett at 2nd base should bounce back (injuries), Kevin Smith at first could move to the outfield.
The Nunez boys, Luis is a utility type that hits and plays infield and outfield) and Eduardo, who plays shortstop can hit and they both run pretty well.
One of the players the Twins wanted in the Santana deal was Mitchell Hilligoss, a third baseman. He really took a dive last year, but, he can hit and he runs like a deer.
““the offense would be unstoppable ”
if i had a dime for the amount of times i’ve heard/read this over the past few years…”
None of those speculated “unstoppable” offenses had Manny in them. Tex/A-Rod/Manny is un-managable how would you pitch to that trio?
Im surprised Melancon did not make the top 100:
He pitched in high A, double A and Triple A skyrocketing through the organization. He pitched almost 100 innings combined with his whip dramatically improving (somehow) at each level from 1.26 in tampa to 0.89 in trenton to 0.75 in scranton. i GUESS the better talent did not phase him one bit. He struck out one per inning as well. I bet by the all star break, he will be our eighth inning setup guy (unless we sign someone else between now and then). Melancon ranks on scouting reports as 85 in control 91 in k rating and 100 in efficiency. He is without question the best reliever in our farm system and without question he will be in the majors this year.
dave
His only throwing out only 25% of basestealers could be worrisome…but most steals are made on pitchers. Very few Class A pitchers are excellent at holding runners on.
Can anyone explain to me how signing bonuses work?
For example, CC gets a $9 million signing bonus and then 14 million for ‘09.
Why not a $15 million signing bonus and an $8 million salary for ‘09?
ARod got a $10 million signing bonus. Why not give him a $30 million bonus and make those annuals look smaller?
Wouldn’t that make the payroll LOOK slimmer, even though it’s actually not?
i Believe the yankees farm system was ranked fifteenth – right in the middle of the pack.
“CHONE projections for 2009:
Team A (the nation)
ells:7/51/.297/.354/.425
Ped: 11/65/.311/ .376/.464
Youk: 18/79/.286/..388/.474
Papi 35/111/.284/.401/.555
Bay 25/89/.267/.364/.472
Lowell 16/78/.272/.335/.434
Nancy 15/66/.267/.383/.448
Lugi 6/46/.263/.333/.370
Vteck 16/52/.227/.330/.389
Team B(the empire)
Johnny: 15/65/.276/.351/.417
Vista boy: 12/68/.294/.366/.415
Mr Clean 32/108/.286/.381/.521
Cravat Boy: 39/116/.294/.397/.564
Swisher 26/78/.247.360/.454
Godzilla 17/75/.277/.360/.443
Po 16/67/.266/.363/.434
Cano 16/79/.300/.340/.468
Melky 10/66/.280/.345/.402″
Well that’s not good.. Although Swisher and Melky shouldn’t be in the lineup. We still have Nady who is better than Swisher and Melky… that experiment needs to end.
“Law should stick to the majors. Tabata is better than Montero? ”
Al: I was thinking the same thing, and even more outrageous is that he said Montero was a catcher ‘in name only’. That’s funny, since every other report in the past year or so I have heard about his defensive skills behind the plate has been very positive and I have even heard that he is in fact coming along better thAN Romine with his defense.
Furthermore, Law also recently compiled his annual organizational rankings, only the top 10 was available to non-ESPN insiders, and he put Boston in the top 10, admitting that he knew it was dubious to rank them that high, but was doing so on the strength of their low-minors prospects who were playing short season ball. So, they gain points for having top tier prospects in Low A, but Montero loses points for being a top tier prospect in Low A?
Smells like hypocrisy, business as usual for NESPN!
Also remember that the Farm rankings took a hit because of Hughes and Kennedy no longer being considered prospects. I hope AJax isn’t as average as Law makes him sound, but i guess even an average offensive CF would be a big upgrade over melky or gardener.
I don’t know who CHONE is but he seems to think there’s going to be a power outage in the Bronx with some of those slug%s.
Boof,
Yea, I was thinking about that after i made the post. Do you think he can have a career as a major league catcher. Can you imagine that kind of offensive production coming out of the catcher position – he will probably put up better numbers than posada – better power, better obp, better ops, better avg for a longer period of time if he continues on this track.Ive read multiple times that with the type of production he gives the yanks , his bat will have no problem transitioning to the first base slot. But one, we dont have first base open. Two, we dont have dh open because posada will eventually be there most likely when montero comes up and three, i doubt he can play any other position well. Not to mention, we need a young catcher. I know we have romine, cervelli and others but none of them have the potential that montero has right now and where do we stick montero if not at backstop. We cant trade a bat like that. I think he has to catch – he has no choice.
and regardless of whether Swisher is in the line up or not.. he has no business batting 5th. I’d rather see Mastui or Posada for that.
i love how brett gardner got best strike zone discipline in the minors and put up a 414 OBP in scranton. Then, came to the yanks and put up a 283 OBP. Combine that with the fact that gardner massively improves in his second year at each level and i think gardner can be a productive stopgap for us next year. To me, gardner has far more upside than melky mainly because of his speed and obp potential. If gardner gets anything close to a 400 obp, he can easily swipe 60 bags – that is extremely good production out of the ninth spot in the lineup while he continues to play better than league avg defense in center. I believe in gardner a heck of a lot more than i believe in melky for some reason. Perhaps, because he actually excels in specific offensive categories which gives him a better up side.
BBB- Couldn’t agree more. ESPN serves their Boston fan-base the best obviously. This is why is was extra sweet to see us getting all the free agents this year and seeing Gammons and Phillips having to comment on it. The Yanks farm system never gets credit due to the free agent signings. However Joba if he stays healthy is the most dominant pitcher to come out of any farm system in the past 3-4 years, yet somehow that is overlooked.
“if i had a dime for the amount of times i’ve heard/read this over the past few years…”
All i can think of is that “murderers row plus Cano” that went home early. Pitching and defense wins championships.
Dave
i think he could have a career as a catcher in the majors
and it would be great if Montero can stay at C for as long as possible, if just to enhance his versatility and usefulness for when he hits the major leagues…but i think they will move him out of catcher eventually.
Speaking of espn. Do they have part ownership in the new mlb network? Everytime i turn to it its showing some type of red sox clip. If its not Williams its the 04/07 championships. It its not that its the rays red sox series of last year. I might have missed the memo on the red sox month marathon. February must be the Yankees turn. Wouldnt be surprised being that its a short month.
Al from BK – I believe that ESPN Mag picked Joba as “The Next” for 2007. No one, including ESPN, can be accused of “overlooking” Joba. THey even run with the “To bullpen, or not to bullpen” question with some regularity. ESPN has most assuredly joined in Jobamania.
Quick Example -Gardners first year in A ball – 377 obp, second year in A ball – 435 obp.
Gardner first year in AA ball – 352 obp, second year in AA ball – 392
Gardner first year in AAA ball – 343 obp, second year in AAA ball – 414
Gardners first year in MLB – 283 obp, second year in MLB – ????
All of these numbers of from a significant sample size of at least 180 to 340 at bats so they are all relevant. Granted, 283 is by far the worst obp he has ever had and he seemed completely overmatched in some of his at bats last year but history has shown that no matter what the level, gardner has learned to make adjustments and dramatically improve in his second year at any level. Also, the 283 is from the smallest sample size of 127 at bats giving him the least amount of time to adjust compared to the other years. And gardner still managed to steal 13 out of 14 bases in only 127 at bats and only getting on base at a 283 clip – imagine how many steals he would have over a full season and with a 350 or higher obp – he could easily break 60. And a player like that also provides a pest on the basepaths distracting pitchers for they cant concentrate on the batter which results in more walks and more hits. I like gardner’s track record of high obp and high stolen bases/low caught stealing ratio. Gardner’s numbers are also ideal for the ninth batter who can turn into a second leadoff hitter when he is on.
Hey GB7, question for ya:
What did you think of Reegie Corona, the guy who Seattle took from us in the Rule 5? I had liked what I’d heard about him previously and was a little disappointed he wasn’t protected, especially given Angelini’s struggles his first year in the organization.
Just wondering because if I understand the Rule 5 correctly, the M’s have to keep him on the MLB roster or return him to us. And though I liked what I read of him, I wasn’t under the impression he was even close to MLB ready….so, what are the chances of us getting him back, and how big a loss do you think it is if we don’t?
Can someone please explain to me how Montero’s ranking would drop if he was converted to first base? Isnt catcher the most grueling possition on the field? Wouldnt you think that his offensive numbers would actually be better if he wasnt in a possition where its grinding and often gets nicked up?
“Al from BK – I believe that ESPN Mag picked Joba as “The Next” for 2007. No one, including ESPN, can be accused of “overlooking” Joba. THey even run with the “To bullpen, or not to bullpen” question with some regularity. ESPN has most assuredly joined in Jobamania.”
The Joba to the pen argument is the dumbest thing in the history of sports debate. Anyhow Brian you cannot overlook the gross sox bias on ESPN, ESPN sunday night baseball might as well be called “sunday night with the sox”. It is a tremendous Boston bias I’m just happy the pats missed the playoffs so the talks of “titletown” could die off already.
dave -
I don’t think Whelan is ever going to be a control artist in any sense of the world.
The thing we have to hope for out of him is that he becomes one of those “effectively wild” types. Jeff Nelson had pretty bad control/command – but because he struck out so many hitters and had nasty stuff, he was able to be effective despite the walks.
That’s what you hope for out of Whelan – that he’ll produce very strong strikeout rates to help him overcome the tendency for walking hitters.
All of that said, he does need to develop more control than he has right now….he’s obviously not going to get away with walking 29 hitters in 38 innings like he did last year. If he can get his numbers into the range he had in Lakeland in 2006 (29 walks in 53 IP), he can be a valuable contributor….as long as he keeps his strikeout rates strong.
I don’t understand why people think AJax should be higher.
If people (Peter Abraham) were so happy with Phil Hughes’ numbers in Arizona…. why shouldn’t people be as equally down on Jax for his .246AVG?
Of course ESPN is going to cash in on Joba’s appeal. What else are they going to do, hype John Lester? zzzzzzzzz
S.O.S
keith law is a idiot
but thats why i think they will move Montero from catcher,because of the wear and tear
and with a bat like Montero,a very good hitter that can use the whole field and with power, he will be better as a LF/DH or RF/DH and if he can cover C and 1ST then thats a bonus also
Guys,
What is this about your questioning of tabata being higher than montero? What about Tabata being higher than AJax??? They are both at the same level and even with tabata’s complete breakdown – he still is ranked 14 ahead of AJax… I can see why tabata is ranked higher than montero even if it is because montero is coming out of A ball and tabata out of double A but why tabata is 14 ahead of AJax is beyond me.
Also, they completely left melancon off the top 100. I know relievers are not as highly regarded but what about future closers?? hOW about guys who went through all three levels in one year and improved their whip at every stop along the way. I didnt even think that was possible. And he will be in the majors by next season so he is pretty darn close to major league ready. He will probably be our eighth inning setup man by the all star break if he pitches well and if could very well close in a couple of years. He could have been put in the 90s at least because he was dominant after his first 20 innings with a whip far below 1 and more than a strikeout per inning.
I have no gripes about montero and tabata but rather between ajax and tabata and melancon being left off. But who really cares? These rankings mean nothing except the opinion of one guy.
AL – I’m probably too biased to see a bias. The Yankees get a lot of play, as do the Red Sox. Not all of the reporting will be positive.
Here’s a litmus test. How did you think ESPN handled Joba’s DUI? Excesive? Cheap shot? Or just perfunctory reporting for a couple of days?
I don’t recall them going after Joba, not that I was taking notes. If they’re “after” the Yankees, wasn’t that a great opportunity?
In a way, the fact that anyone at ESPN argues that Joba should be in the bullpen is, by definition, underestimating/overlooking his talent. Anyone who has seen him start knows that he is way too good for the bullpen and has way too many good pitches. ESPN *overlooks* his change and curve when they suggest he should pitch out of the pen, and of course only a Yankee hater and/or Sox/Mets slurper would seriously advocate a pitcher of Joba’s caliber pitch 60 innings rather than 200.
S.O.S
Thats why i think they will move Montero from catcher because of the wear and tear
and a good young hitter that can use the whole field and with power,i think he will be better suited to LF/DH or RF/DH and if he cn cover C and 1ST then thats a real bonus
you make room for a bat like that
double post…my bad
S.O.S -
As I like to say, it’s all relative – as a first baseman, you pretty much can’t have many flaws in your offensive game to be considered “great”. As a catcher, you can get away with a few flaws in your offensive game because you play such an important defensive position. (plus, offensive catchers are harder to find).
It’s impossible to say whether Montero’s bat would become better just because you change his position on the field – ie, moving Derek Jeter to first base earlier in his career wouldn’t have given him 35 HR power.
It is true that Montero’s bat could wear down more as the season goes along as a catcher compared to being a first baseman. But does that change his overall offensive potential? I am not sure – because you have to raise the barometer as well.
BBB, good question. i’ve been meaning to ask about that (guys we lost in the rule 5), but never got around to it. i think i was pretty busy at work the week that happened…
guys we lost:
2 Reegie Corona INF Seattle New York (AL) Trenton
12 Zachary Kroenke LHP Florida New York (AL) Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
14 Jason Jones RHP Minnesota New York (AL) Scranton/Wilkes-Barre
20 Ivan Nova RHP San Diego New York (AL) Tampa
and i never knew there was a AAA round
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/minorleagues/rule_5.jsp
Last year Tabata was in the 20s. He dropped about 11 spots from last year’s Klaw list. His stock is falling.
Tabata dropped right off the radar last year
the kid has a attidude problem.is lazy in the field,his power has never developed he still young though…he only plays when he feels like it
he goes to the pirates and has one good month,then he one of the top prospects in baseball again
Brian – With all due respect, their reporting on the Red Sox is always positive. Only time it isnt is when it behooves their FO to tear apart one of the players ie Manny. Look at the way they lauded the Smoltz signing, what if the Yankees had signed a 41 yr old coming off labrum surgery?
I dont watch too much ESPN during the offseason so, don’t know how they handled Joba’s DUI, though I’m sure it was less discussed than it would be had it happened during the season, but I do recall them ripping him and basically calling him a headhunter when he threw a few pitches up and in….of course when Dice-BB goes after one of our hitters, or when Pedro used to, it is all a barrel of laughs…
BBB – I think you’re giving the ESPN analysts too much credit. Their argument is (1) Joba was great in the BP, (2) Joba got hurt starting, (3) Joba should stay in the BP.
Not very deep. I don’t know if they discredit their audience by avoiding the kind of discussion you’re talking about (i.e. quantity/quality of pitches).
Brian (Red Sox Fan)
ESPN wouldn’t go after Joba for a DUI because it’s bad for business. They named him Next and used him to promote ESPN the Weekend in Florida. Playing up a DUI doesn’t help them with all the mouse ear wearing families across America they’d like to attract to the park to put money in their coffers come March to pose for a picture with him.
The great part about todays discussion is that we dont only have one prospect highly regarded like it was not long ago with Eric Duncan. We are actually argueing why we dont have more when back then we heard crickets. Big turn around if you ask me.
Here’s Law’s reasoning:
Magpie (Columbus, OH): Sorry to ask you to contribute more to the mythical East Coast Bias. But I have to ask…Would Jesus Montero be ranked much higher if he were moved to left or right field?
Keith Law: No – his ranking reflects the fact that I don’t expect him to have much defensive value. He’s going to be moved to a position that is not as important defensively, and probably won’t play it all that well.
“AL – I’m probably too biased to see a bias. The Yankees get a lot of play, as do the Red Sox. Not all of the reporting will be positive.
Here’s a litmus test. How did you think ESPN handled Joba’s DUI? Excesive? Cheap shot? Or just perfunctory reporting for a couple of days?
I don’t recall them going after Joba, not that I was taking notes. If they’re “after” the Yankees, wasn’t that a great opportunity?”
My theory is not that they are after the Yankees, however they cover the Sox in a different light. The Yanks are bad the Sox are good, the Yanks buy their players the sox are homegrown. Its just a double standard kind of how they didn’t make a big deal when the Sox paid 50 mil just to speak to Dice-K or when they paid 80 million for JD Drew in the same off-season. However when the Yanks spend money they are “evil” or as Sox owner John Henry said “running away from us”. I think its funny how the sox organization is crying about losing Tex when they could have had him for 5 million more, Henry got cheap and botched the negotiations.
That doesn’t sound like an accurate representation of the reasoning used by each ESPN analyst with regard to Joba. Are you being disingenuous, Brian?
BBB – I agree that they treat the Sox pretty well, but I think that’s part of a systemic problem with all of their reporting. Too many ex-jocks who won’t say anything critical about much of anybody.
An obvious case in point is Brett Favre – the guy has been mediocre for ten years, but ESPN STILL acts as though he’s a viable commodity.
But that’s another topic …..
SaucY, thanks for the link, I didn’t know about the AAA round either. Was quite dismayed to see Oakland took a guy from us in that draft, I wonder how many times he will finish top 5 in Cy Young voting…
Only guy we lost I know anything about is Jason Jones, I saw him pitch in Trenton and he looked damn good, but I’m no expert on how that will translate to the MLB level. Either way I’d say we have many better arms.
Overall, it seems like we had more players taken than any other team. That speaks very well to our pitching depth, but I just hope we are protecting the right ones.
Word is Montero is one of the hardest workers in the system.and has been working hard on flexibility and agility.
and even though he has made good strides behind the plate….i think he could make the shift to the OF
Brian – You’re right, I may be giving them too much credit regarding their analysis of Joba’s stuff… they are ESPN after all, and I can’t even count how many times I have heard Morgan incorrectly identify some offspeed pitch or the other!
BBB
January 22nd, 2009 at 4:17 pm
Hey GB7, question for ya:
What did you think of Reegie Corona, the guy who Seattle took from us in the Rule 5? I had liked what I’d heard about him previously and was a little disappointed he wasn’t protected, especially given Angelini’s struggles his first year in the organization.
Just wondering because if I understand the Rule 5 correctly, the M’s have to keep him on the MLB roster or return him to us. And though I liked what I read of him, I wasn’t under the impression he was even close to MLB ready….so, what are the chances of us getting him back, and how big a loss do you think it is if we don’t?
————————————————————
I kind of hated seeing him leave, because he was the closest to being the long term emergency shortstop in the forseeable future. no power, but a good hit and run type with speed. Pretty decent glove. Never will be a sar, but, NYY could get him back if Seattle doesn’t keep him on the big team. The one I hated to see get taken was Kroenke.
Boof,
I hope he can at least stay at catcher until the end of posada’s contract in three years. That would be helpful. hIS PRODUCTION out of the catchers position is soo much scarier than those same numbers coming from a first baseman or dh. I hope he stays at catcher atleast through his 20s but i am skeptical of how long he will be there.
Chris,
AJax could be average but his numbers do not imply that he will be. Next year is a big year for him to really see what he has and see if he improves in his second stint at double A as he did in his second stint in A ball. But 10 homers in 500 at bats at 21 could translate to at least 20 homers in 600 at bats at 27 i would think as he continues to develop. Also, the 20 steals to go along with 20 plus homerun potential dont seem too average for a center fielder. Tack on the over 320 avg and over 400 obp he had last season and that could very well be his ceiling. 320 400 20+/20 does not sound too average to me. That sounds more like numbers Holliday put up around that age,
Sos,
Law made the rankings with the idea in mind that Montero would not be a catcher any more when he actually made it to the major leagues. That lowered him in the rankings.
Tom K,
Therein lies he problem – whelan’s control numbers are getting worse and not better as he progresses or perhaps, regresses. The rest of his numbers are absolutely fantastic though and he already is that strikeout pitcher striking out between 10 and 11 per 9 innings. But walking one per inning is not going to cut it in the majors – no way he can get through with that kind of control. Even if he gives up 4.5 hits per 9 which he can do. Imagine what an arm like that would produce if he had impeccable control. He would be unhittable.
Never will be a ***star***
Oh, and speaking of Trenton. SWB is a bit of a hike for me, but if anyone wants to plan a LoHud get together in Trenton, I am definitely down. It is a beautiful ballpark with great fans and there should be some exciting players this year.
Nick – not disingenuous …. perhaps underinformed? (or have I “misremembered?”)
I’m never impressed by the depth of alleged “analysis” on ESPN (and Harold Reynolds on MLB Network is starting to irk me – again). If you’ve heard anything more qualitative than my (A), (B), (C) summation of “Joba to the Bullpen,”, I must have skipped class that day.
Yea tom that is what i said before. Law is lowering the value of Montero because he does not expect him to catcher and he assumes he will play first or dh which is dumb because the yanks dont have either position available for at least three years and probably more.
when Austin Jackson was drafted he was more a basketball player and very raw…i think he is developing nicely.and he will come along nicely in 09
Boof,
I think Tabata is being evaluated on what he had shown in prior years as well as last year. And he did drop down some but the yanks thought of tabata at one point as the best position player in the system and he was in the untouchable category for a while as well. So obviously his ceiling is pretty high – i think the rankings are taking that into account as well as the fact that he brought down the house in altoona which i found quite ridiculous that as soon as he got traded, he turned something on in his head and hit like an all star the rest of the way with the best offensive production of his career.
i saw Jackson and Tabata play this past year in AA. One thing is Jackson looked very good at the plate and CF while Tabata didnt really hustle and looked VERY out of shape, i was very surprised to hear the review saying that he is a good runner and actually was 18 for 20 or whatever in stealing bases. He looked like he would have been to winded running to first base.
Pat – Chone is a rather popular projection system for player performance based on prior track biased a bit towards most recent. Where it may hurt NY is an inherent assumption – true for most players but perhaps not as true for outstanding ones – that young guys get better, while older guys get worse. So Posada, Damon, Jeter, and Matsui are seriously nicked, while Ellsbury gets a bump. It also tends to compress towards the middle, so outstanding performances are usually reduced – such as Pedroia, A-Rod. Overall the numbers look a bit optistic for the Sox than NY – just look at the production numbers for Posada vs. Varitek.
GB – on Trenton. Fortenberry needs a serious rebound, and he’s older (25) for his 1st time at his level. Battle just can’t seem to get his BA up or keep the K’s down to an acceptable level. And Hilligoss hits like a 2B even in his good ‘07.
Trenton isn’t where our strength will be this year, but your point about the pitching is accurate, as it is throughout the Yanks org. For me, I’m looking to see if Vecchionacci – still young for the level and seemed to finally be showing something with the bat before his injury last year – can pull himself back into the limelight rather than become another Eric Duncan. I think Curtis will be back there in the OF – be nice if he stepped it up. I do like Sublett’s bat, think he bears watching if he’s there, and agree on E. Nunez. I also expect Cervelli to start the season there, and Anson could bear watching at C as well. If OF Edwar Gonzalez is back there, let’s hope he keeps moving forward too! Most of these guys are more role players than starters, but a good bench of a good thing.
On the pitching side Garcia’s got to be the big story. Can he stay healthy and live up to his promise. Hacker and Kontos could be repeaters – and both were pretty good last year. Many think Mc Allister will be there, at least for the 2nd 1/2. And in the pen, Mike Dunn (sounds like that’s the plan) and our other Teixeira that came in the Swisher deal bear watching, along with seeing if Whelan gets command. And I’d expect Horne to get some time there in his return from injury at some point earlier in the season.
Gee, after all that maybe they won’t be so bad after all!
And tabata is in double A while montero is in single A. It doesnt make sense to compare the two. I would compare the ranings of AJax and tabata as i have said – both outfielders, both coming out of a season in double A and both have a ton of up side.
“Overall, it seems like we had more players taken than any other team. That speaks very well to our pitching depth, but I just hope we are protecting the right ones.”
agreed. i wondered how the ‘experts’ knocked our farm system last year. but rule 5 came along and we were busting at the seams with talent that other’s had interested in.
if i were to guess, we’ll be seeing some of those guys come back to us. none of them have more than a little AAA experience…
The only thing I ask is a Saturday day game.
GB7: Thanks. That was basically why I hated to see him go too, especially after the Yanks traded AGonz. And I always got the impression Corona was better than Gonzalez though I dont know that for sure.
Another thing I liked was how he apparently stood up to Tabata in the Trenton dugout when Jose was not being a very good teammate. Makeup doesnt replace talent but it is always nice to have!
So inaccurate statements aren’t necessarily disingenuous? Good to know!
Anyway, there are many analysts on ESPN and I doubt any of us here today has heard the extent of each of their comments about Joba. But I would say that the majority of comments I heard were more in line with the “Joba should be in the bullpen because he’s such a dominant setup man and shortens the game” theory and not that he should remain in the bullpen because he eventually got hurt as a starter. I’m sure both opinions were expressed.
The truth is that ESPN analysts probably want Joba in the pen to limit the number of times he faces Youk.
dont think people are comparing Montero and Tabata…just there ranking
On potential i would rank Montero ahead of Tabata being at catcher or not
would Tabata make the yanks top 5 if he was still in our farm system…i dont think so
” If you’ve heard anything more qualitative than my (A), (B), (C) summation of “Joba to the Bullpen,”, I must have skipped class that day.”
i usually just hear (A) he dominated when he came up in the pen in ‘07 (B) put him back there where he belongs!!!
nyyfaninlaaland
I think that Fortenberry will be fine. He’s only got 2 and a half years of pro ball, and the FSL is pretty much a pitcher’s league, but, he made Charleston’s Riley Stadium look small, and he’s a terrific outfielder, at all three positions. He’s also one of the few left handed power bats in the system. He had a few nagging injuries last year, but, he didn’t do too badly. He reminds me a lot of Paul O’Neill, who got started late, too.
Hilligoss has a bat like Wade Boggs, but, great speed. He just doesn’t have a real position to play…not much on defense, but I gues the nagging injuries really affected him the most. He was impressive as Hell in Charleston in 2007, though.
I’m just not as crazy about Vecchionacci as others, though. Maybe as a utility type.
Cano he didnt,
That is not that surprising considering it was this year and in trenton that you saw him. Tabata had some sort of major attitude problem in trenton this year and completely stopped hustling. He has plenty of speed though, he just stopped caring for a while and the numbers definitely did not hide his complete breakdown- he is still very young at only 20 but his little act was completely unprofessional and got him a one way ticket out of the yankee organization. He still has the skill set to be a great major leaguer though which is why he was placed so high in the Law rankings.
Boof,
I agree and I really expect to see another breakthrough year for Austin in 2009 as he figures out how to play against better competition. He had an adjustment year last year but i am pretty sure the numbers will improve across the board.
I just got an e-mail from the Trenton Thunder promoting their bobblehead giveaway games. I thought it would be cool to schedule a get-together at one of those (they’re giving away Joba, Phil Coke, Brett Gardner and AJax). Unfortunately they are Wednesday games. Darn.
There is only one Saturday afternoon game at Trenton and that is 4/11 at 1:05. Other Saturday games are at 7:05 p.m. There are Sunday 1:05 games on 4/26, 5/10, 5/31, 6/14, 7/19, 8/9 (my daughter’s b’day), 8/23 (my anniversary) and 8/30.
I’d be willing to get tickets if there’s a group that wants to do a Sunday afternoon game at Trenton, with a consensus on a date.
Of course, Dave, if Gardner matches the best OBP improvement on your list, that brings him up to a little north of .350. Not exactly .400.
But if Gardner is OBP’ing at .400, he won’t be batting 9th either. .350 with his speed in the 9 hole is perfectly acceptable. Not that I’m expecting that either.
I get the level improvement trend, but that doesn’t come with a guarantee. And going to the majors isn’t comparable to a ‘level’ jump. But Gardner did show improvement in his 2nd go round. Hoping for the best.
Nor have I given up on Melky – hey, we just need him to be acceptable. He’s not a make or break guy. And could settle in as a fine 4th OF – switch hitter with D skills.
I cant talk to anyone anymore about joba moving to the pen – it is always the same uninformed BS that runs rampant through the media in general about his injury history and his success as a reliever and even some blatantly false information like the idea that he came up as a reliever and was converted to the starting role or that relievers have more longevity and stability because they pitch less innings or that rivera is halfway out the door and chamberlain needs to fill the closer role now because there is no one else. None of the arguments make sense and most of them are not even employing accurate information. It is just impossibly frustrating and a waste of time to discuss joba with anyone who does not know the yankees very well.
Melky makes more sense to start and Gardner to be the back up. He is fast, can be a late inning stolen base threat, but i think melky is the better Center Fielder. Didnt he tie for league lead in assists a couple years back?
Here’s more prospect info
http://www.baseball-intellect......ts-part-2/
yEA we have plenty of pitching depth in our minor league system but unfortunately, most of that does not fall under the category of major league pitching depth where we have maybe 7 legitimate starters before we start running into some serious trouble like Coke, Geise, Johnson, Jackson, McCutchen, Marquez, Horne or Wright. I guess Humberto Sanchez is being brought back into his starter role which is a smart move but I dont think we could seriously consider him as part of our starting pitching depth this year. None of those outside of the first 7 are very comforting options IMO.
Boof,
Did he put up those ridiculous numbers in trenton rather than altoona if we kept him this year?
One of the reasons a lot of people said that Pettitte had a tough year last season was because his offseason workouts were disrupted because of Roger’s investigation. What are the chances that his offseason workouts have been disrupted by not signing with a team so late in the winter?
“I just got an e-mail from the Trenton Thunder promoting their bobblehead giveaway games.”
It seems just about every team in baseball is selling tickets except the Yankees. Red Sox tix go on sale Saturday.I just went on the Mets site and had no trouble picking out seats for a 15 game Saturday package.
The Yankees, on the other hand, havent communicated a syllable to their ticket licencees about their relocation other than full season plan holders.I guess they figure that,like themselves, people dont have to budget their money. With the season around the corner it would be nice to know if the price of your seats is going to double or go down. Our next communication will be “here are your seats,we suggest you dont change them, here is your bill and pay in 30 days”. It’s a bit arrogant of them.
nyyfaninlaland,
You want a guarantee? Throw in an extra 100 bucks for me and I will give you a guarantee that Gardner will have an obp of 350 or better? Im not expecting the world of this guy – i just want to see an improvement over the 220 280 he gave us last year. And i think based on gardner’s career stats we will see one.
I am not so sure about melky on the other hand – I think the anomaly in melky’s career in pinstripes came in his first year rather than his last – he was never a highly touted prospect ya know? Outside of 2006, his career numbers whether in the minor leagues or the majors showed very little to expect some sort of quality offensive production.
The minute i knew melky may not be for real is when i realized in 2006 that melky’s current major league avg and obp in the majors that year were higher than his career minor league numbers. After that, I never had much faith in melky and i never believed he could ever fill the role as a starting center fielder for the yanks even as a stop gap. He just does not seem to have the talent to play that position outside of his defensive prowess which is the only above average part of his game. Thus far, The problem with melky throughout his career is patience and a lack of an offensive category in which he excels or atleast performs above average. And i dont think with more time and development, melky will become a much better player. He has shown little sign of that in the minors against far inferior talent so why any one would expect a sudden breakout year from melky is just beyond me.
Gardner has shown a lot to like throughout his minor league career. He has the type of speed that will change the outcome of a game consistently ranked one of the fastest in the organization. Gardner’s speed clocks in at 97 on scouting reports. His patience is also an area that has the potential to show vast improvement as can be seen from his minor league stats. He has a score of 84 in the patience category among scouting reports on him. His ability to get on base combined with his speed makes him a player with a heck of a lot more up side than melky. Gardner has a career obp of 389 while melky’s career obp is 349 in the minor leagues. Also, melky’s obp in his 2006 campaign was 360 in the majors or 11 points higher than against minor league pitching – that is a big red flag right there IMO.
Gardner showed absolutley no ability to hit big league pitching. None. He was completely overmatched in just about every at bat he had.
At least Melky had shown that at one point he could hit major league pitchers. Melky’s problem is plate disciline. He paid his penance and went to the minors, had some success in Winter ball and deserves first crack at the center field job.
“dont think people are comparing Montero and Tabata…just there ranking
On potential i would rank Montero ahead of Tabata being at catcher or not
would Tabata make the yanks top 5 if he was still in our farm system…i dont think so”
Boof,
I just dont think it is fair to compare their rankings – they play different positions, they are at a different point in their respective careers, one is coming out of A ball and the other out of Double A ball, they have very different strengths and weaknesses and Montero is coming off his best season so far while Tabata’s breakout year was 22007 and in 2008, he had a complete collapse followed by a resurrection in altoona in which he hit better than he ever has in his life Im sure.
I would rank Montero ahead of Tabata only because he is a catcher and put up monstrous stats for A ball. But if I went on Keith Law’s premise that Montero would not make it to the majors as a catcher but would later become an OF or DH and Tabata had that last month in trenton, i may put tabata ahead because of Montero’s position change and Tabata’s show of excellence in the last month or so proving the talent was still there and because tabata was coming out of double A and is closer to major league ready and was batting against more talented pitchers. Im not sure.
But i am pretty sure that if tabata had that last month in trenton rather than altoona that he would still be in Keith Law’s top 30 as a yankee. At least i would hope so.
Drive I figured I would call the ticket office again today to get an update what they told me today and this has changed on a weekly basis is that we should hear something by the end of Feb.latest. We will get either an invoice or an email saying here is your invoice for next year with seat locations, amount etc etc. At that time we will have the option to either reject the seats and go into the pool or pay the invoice and take the seats.
Not really what I wanted to hear being as I usually know what is going on with my tickets by the end of december but will just have to go with the flow and know that whomever is handling this process should not be hired by anyone to do it again as the lack of communication and information on this issue by the team has been horrible to say the least.
Doreen
Did Trenton say whether the Joba bobble heads were of “Joba the Starter” or “Joba the Set-up Man?”
Maybe they know something the rest of us don’t and can end the big debate for us?
Drive,
But gardner has consistently showed throughout his career that he takes a little while to adjust and then, dramatically improves. Melky has slowly gotten worse and worse in each consecutive season to the point where he was dead weight outside of his defensive abilities. He has no offensive category in which he excels and is not even league average in any of the categories at this point. Gardner has massive speed which is a very positive attribute for the ninth hitter and CF and we know that if nothing else, he could distract pitchers and steal us 40 bases in a full season. Melky has no outstanding abilities that help overcome his below avg offense like brett. Also, brett has shown to be significantly more patient than melky in the minors so he does have that ability to get a high obp even with a low average. Plus, Melky had plenty of chances to show what he can do – and he failed miserably. Gardner has barely been given a chance so far. He deserves a shot over melky at least to start off the year as he did not even have enough at bats to adjust to the far superior pitching with only 120 at bats or so.
I think gardner deserves first crack at the job. Melky has had almost three years to prove to the yankees that he belongs in center field for the yankees and he has answered the call by dropping his obp from 360 to 327 to 301 and his avg from 280 to 273 to 249. He has had 1,438 at bats to show the yankees his skill and has done nothing but disappoint. Its time to give someone else a crack at the job – Gardner had only 127 at bats last year. That is barely time to adjust to the surroundings and superior pitching or even catch his breathe never-mind show off what he can do. Why doesn’t gardner deserve at least a half of a season while melky got almost three full seasons before finally being yanked out. Gardner is a much better player in the minors, has the best speed in the organization and is far more athletic than melky. If gardner fails, then, we can try melky again but brett at least deserves a chance. Melky has had more than enough chances in which he has proven how badly he really is.
Tex’s new best friend,
Melky led the league in assists because they were testing him in his first year as no one knew how good his arm was – so everyone ran on him and he threw out a lot of people but fact is, melky has been horrible for two years. That was his shot – he blew out. Time to give someone else a chance to start. If that doesnt work, we can go back to melky but gardner did even get a shot.
gayle,
“know that whomever is handling this process should not be hired by anyone to do it again as the lack of communication and information on this issue by the team has been horrible to say the least.”
You’re exactly right. As much as I hate to say it, I can’t imagine the Red Sox taking their fans for granted the way the Yankees have in this process.Just as some fans take making the playoffs for granted, the Yankees have taken drawing 4mil fans for granted.
pretty sure Joba was voted in… or do you think Ellsbury should have got the baseball nomination?
Don’t you guys think there’s a reason Law went from special assistant to the GM to writing articles for ESPN?
Dave – if you read my post, I called Melky potentially a decent 4th OF. And my guarantee comment was just that nothing is.
I agree that Gardner has adjusted to each level effectively in the past, and very much agree his speed is a better tool than anything Melky shows offensively at this point. As I said, if he can get to a .350 OBP, that’s more than enough.
What concerns all about him is the high K rate. If he can’t hold his own, pitchers won’t BB him, and his value will decline. BB’s are a big part of his game. If pitchers just continue to challenge him without fear, and he has little power to fear, he’s gonna have a problem. He’ll be more dependant on BA than he ever has to maintain a healthy OBP in the majors. That means more and better contact. I don’t really care about the level adjustment thing – that doesn’t mean it will happen in the majors. What does give me hope, as I said, was that he showed better in his Sept. callup.
But neither of these guys get the job because they deserve a shot. Best man wins this one. And you should remember, to be fair, that Melky was facing majors pitching at an age where Gardner was playing in college. He could heve some growing up left in him as well, even if his stat track is negative right now. Personally I’m glad we have both – though I’d be happier if we had Grady Sizemore!