Pinch hitting: The Bronx Block
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Jan 23, 2009 
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January is traditionally a slow month for baseball news. So for the second year in a row, we will showcase other blogs with a series of pinch hitters.
Next up is Tom from The Bronx Block.
Tom lives in New York and has been blogging for about a year. He will be starting up a new blog, The Yankee Universe, soon. Here is his post:
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Today, I’m analyzing the 2009 version of the greatest rivalry in baseball: the Yankees and Red Sox. I’m not sure if a solar flare hit the earth, the Prime Mover took his eye off our spinning blue marble, or what, but the natural order of the universe has been disrupted. The Red Sox winning championships and the Yankees consistently coming up second best? This is not acceptable and I have a sneaking suspicion that it’s somehow responsible for this worldwide recession we’re currently undergoing. I can’t prove it yet, mind you (not for lack of trying), but I can’t help thinking these two tragic events are somehow connected.
What I can prove is that the planet has tilted back upon its proper axis and is spinning normally, again. The Yanks have signed the top three free agents on the market, possess a bustling bullpen of young, versatile power arms, and have several key contributors coming back from injuries (Posada, Wang, Matsui) while other Bombers are due for bounce back years (Swisher, Cano, A-Rod, Jeter). Yes, Crybaby Nation you can pretty much mark it down that the good old days of your Red Sox finishing second every year and finding ways to blow big games are back.
It’s pretty clear that the dynasty days of the 90s have returned for the Yanks but, just for the sake of science, logic and pointy ears, I’ve done a statistical analysis of each player and compared them to
their Beantown counterpart. In my mere allotted 500 words, I don’t have space to reveal the calculations, but I can go into depth in the comments if you have any questions and I’ll post a companion piece with deeper analysis on The Yankee Universe and Bronx Block. I used an amalgam of the traditional stats, the newer sabermetric stuff, and the replacement level value stats, utilizing mostly baseballreference.com and fangraphs.com.
I gave a score out of 10 to each starting player, starting pitcher, and closer. The bench of each squad received a group grade out of 10 as did the setup men and the back of the bullpens. Add it up and
surely we’ll see a huge gap between the Yankees and Red Sox.
The results: Yankees 124.5, Sox 121. Thank you very much. Without the words to spare, I must forego the sturm and drang to admit that we have to get used to the fact that the Red Sox are a really good team with an extremely well-run organization that is likely to give the Yanks a run to the wire each year. Oh, and you can throw the Rays in there, too. I guess this just makes it all the more interesting, right?
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Thanks, Tom. Coming tomorrow: Nick from San Francisco.
Zzzzzzzz
LOL
3 words (sorta):
CC, AJ, Tex
So Nick in SF will be debuting his blog tomorrow? Can’t wait!
Melky Cabrera stinks
Roger doesn’t look real nervous about the Grand Jury being convened. He appears to be in better shape now than he was when he was pitching.
http://www.wireimage.com/ItemL.....038;nbc1=1
Jeter, Damon and O’Neill are also there but no pics. Link to pics of Mr. and Mrs. CC on the left of the page.
Does anyone know when PinstripesPlus has it’s free preview period?
I wonder if Melky will start a blog. He can talk about how he ripped off the yanks…big time!
Pat:
I think you need to look a little closer. Roger looked like he dropped about 25 lbs.
MilBkid
I noticed. By better shape I meant leaner/thinner.
pat,
lol. only in a man’s world is putting on 25 lbs. a good thing.
What’s with Amber? She looks like she just walked over from the Yankees presser. And CC looks good? Thinner? I don’t know. Hard to tell with the non-Joba shirt.
Nice stuff, Tom.
Great post. I am all for the loyal homer stuff especially in light of what goes on in the provincial “hub”.
One of the few good ones while we await Pete’s return.
Would like to see the actual formulas and methodology you used.
Also, you might want to look up ‘hubris’ in the dictionary.
There’s a reason you actually _play_ the games.
[that said, I hope the Yankees kick the Red Sox to the AL East basement, of course...]
“pat,
lol. only in a man’s world is putting on 25 lbs. a good thing.”
m – Pat was saying he LOST 25 lbs.
m
CC has never looked fat to me, just big boned.
Outfit does look familiar but I give Amber a fashion pass for having a new baby. I remember the one pair of jeans that fit post pregnancy all too well. Right down the road from the new CC neighborhood is a Saks, Bloomingdales and Nordstrom so I’m sure Amber will be doing some damage there soon enough.
MilBkid,
And she said he looks like he’s in better shape than he was when he was playing. And then you corrected her, so I …never mind. It was just a joke.
“m – Pat was saying he LOST 25 lbs.”
Right and m and I are both female so losing 25 pounds is usually viewed by us as better shape and a good thing.
pat,
Even pinstripes can’t slim his girlish figure.
Have you seen him on his follow-through? Gravity’s not kind at all.
m
Gravity isn’t kind to me either these days on my follow through so I’ll be kind.
CC is going to be holding the distinction of the Yankee with the most pinstripes on his uniform so in order for him to earn his pinstripes he’s going to have to work 3 or 4 times harder than Edwar Ramirez.
Thank you for the opportunity, Pete. I apologize to all for the hatchet job on this piece. I got way too ambitious and forgot about the word limit. When I tried to cut it down it all went kablooey and my work schedule didn’t allow me to do a proper rewrite.
What I was going for was an attempt to portray a cocky Yankee fan, fresh off a great off-season, looking at the matchups in depth, only to realize how close these two teams actually are despite the hot stove haul. I was trying to combine that with analysis and it got completely out of control.
I guess my point was to say that, even though we’ve built a top squad here, the Sox and Rays are still neck-and-neck, and the era where we could rely on money and mojo to put the Beantowners in their place (irony
is long gone. It should be a great season. We can’t take the playoffs for granted the way we used to, but we should glory in the epic battle of what should be a classic race for the A.L. East crowns.
My analysis of the matchup is below. Feel free to ask questions or argue, I’d love to chat about my reasoning.
Starting Pitchers:
Josh Beckett: 8 CC Sabathia: 9 – have to give the edge to CC on durability and ERA over the last 3 regular seasons but in the playoffs, this matchup flips with a potentially large edge to Beckett.
Matsuzaka: 7.5 Wang: 7 – I deducted a half point from the Wanger for his injury issues last year, though the rust shouldn’t affect him too much. Both these guys are prototypical innings eaters who rack up wins despite their differing stuff.
Lester: 7 Burnett: 7 – Lester looks better in the traditional stats 3.21 ERA to AJ’s 4+, but the advanced value stats actually show Burnett contributing 55 runs to Lester’s 50 (rounding). Both guys lose a point, Lester for his inexperience, Burnett for injury history.
Wakefield: 5 Joba: 6 – Polar opposites. The savvy veteran innings eating knuckleballer versus the young fireballer who’s never gone much over 100 innings. On talent and numbers, Joba’s an 8 but he loses two points for injuries, inexperience and questions re: his ability to last as a starter.
Penny/ Smoltz/ Bucholtz, etc.: 6 Hughes/ Aceves/ Giese, etc.: 4 – Much as I love Phil and believe he’ll be successful this year, statistically you have to be fair (though Bill James projected a low 3 ERA for the Phranchise).
Papelbon: 9 Rivera: 9 – Mo’s old, Papelbon is a closer not named Mariano Rivera, therefore they each lose a point.
Setup Men – Boston: 8 Yanks: 7.5 – Had to be somewhat arbitrary here. Too many numbers to crunch. Both teams have great options with Saito, Masterson, Bruney, Veras, Okajima, Marte, and Coke all putting up tremendous numbers. Slight edge to the Beantowners for a longer track record.
Back of the pen – Boston: 8 Yankees: 8 – Again, somewhat arbitrary, but from what I could tell about each system, they both have a wealth of young, versatile arms that can fill a variety of different roles.
Lineup
Posada: 6.5 Bard: 2 – Posada loses 2 points for injuries and age but if he can put together even an average dropoff year from 2007 this becomes the only huge mismatch in the rivalry.
Teixeira: 8 Youkilis: 7.5 – These guys are practically clones (151 OPS+ to 143). The only difference is that last year was the first season Youkilis really hit for power.
Pedroia: 8 Cano: 6.5 – Can Cano bounce back? Can Pedroia reproduce his monster year? Take 06-07 Cano versus 07-08 Pedroia and their wOBA’s are actually very similar.
Jeter: 7 Lowrie: 4.5 – Jury is still out on Lowrie, but most people like the kid. .326 wOBA last year is pretty poor but not awful from the SS position if he wields a good glove which he did last year. Jeter was actually improved defensively last year according to fangraphs (rated middle of the pack) though he dipped with the bat.
Lowell: 6 A-Rod: 9 – Injury questions subtract two points from Lowell.
Bay: 7.5 Swisher: 5.5 – Swisher needs to bounce back. Bay needs to learn how to field.
Ellsbury: 6 Damon: 7 – ½ point off for Damon’s age. Ellsbury loses runs at the plate but saved 17.5 runs in the field last year.
Drew: 7.5 Nady: 6.5 – they both produced a similar amount of value over replacement level last year, but Drew has the track record while Nady broke out.
Ortiz: 7 Matsui: 5 – Both of these guys lose two points for age and injuries.
Benches – Sox: 6.5 Yankees: 5 – Baldelli gives them the edge. He’s a nice super sub in the outfield and if stud prospect Lars Anderson progresses, he gives them young depth for injuries. I like Gardner for the Yanks, but there are too many questions.
Nick From SF is blogging…Oh lord
Nick from SF tomorrow! I can’t even imagine …
Totally O/T, but Charles Barkley needs to come back to the TNT desk. Gary Payton is ruining the show. Ernie Johnson looks like he walked into a scene from Barbershop. There’s a lot of crowing and cackling.
Also, anyone see Violet Palmer call a blocking foul late in the 4th? Lots of body English.
Yessss! For at least the thirteenth year in a row, we have went head to head with the redsox and a yankees fan has determined that we can beat them ON PAPER! Wow, we are almost victorious, alls we gotta do now is actually play the 162 games while winning about 100 (if we want the division back which we should) and then, win three playoff series but certainly the hard part is over.
And that brian cashman really knows how to spend that money – he is the the best spender of other peoples money I have ever seen in my life. I dont think any one anywhere who has spent more of another person’s money than cash while having zero to show for it in the last eight years (although im sure someone can think of one). Look at that cashman go! I would love to see a move that brian would have to actually put some thought into – something similar to the swisher trade perhaps except with nady or packaging prospects for a need. Ya know, something that doesnt require merely throwing hundreds of millions of dollars around in order to finish the deal. People say you have to be super smart to be a GM but its a heck of a lot about resources and luck – i wonder if a formula could be worked up for GM success.
Rebecca, see my explanation above. I was going for irony but it might not have gotten through. Stat analysis and details are above.
Tom: Just saw it.
I’m not sure you can deduct a point for Mo on age when he just had his best season, statistically at age 38, but I do appreciate you sharing your methodology
Rebecca,
No question he’s the best but I had to be consistent. I did it with others and had to do it even with Mo.
dave,
You sound stoned as anyone I’ve seen on the internets. j/k. I think.
Haven’t you learned? You make your own luck.
You didn’t happen upon medical school because your mom wished it when she saw a rainbow. Wait scratch that. Wishbone, birthday wish, whatever.
Mel,
I think you are right – i have not slept more than 2 hours in almost two days. Translation – i feel like i am as high as a kite.
I got into med school with a ton of work and a little bit of luck i guess. At first, my mom did not even want me to go because she thought i was doing it for all the wrong reasons – i eventually i convinced her how much i want to do it and why and she finally came over to my side so maybe it was my dad’s birthday wish – ya never know.
dave,
GTK. I was hoping that you weren’t dipping into the pharmaceuticals to get you through the day.
Go to sleep, you’ve been loopy all day.
Tom, why is damon playing center in your work up when you know he will be playing left and gardner or melky is in center? You cant just eliminate that little fact from this…
you actually expect damon to play center all year??
booga
Mel,
What is GTK? I was loopy but it was fun writing in here while i was a little off center today. Much more enjoyable than being completely serious no? Well, i enjoyed it at least.
And do defensive metrics have a place in this matchup and contribute to the toal number because if you are seriously putting damon in center, you should at least take into account the hit the team would take in out field defense.
I know youk had a huge year last year but tex has already established himself as one of the better hitters in the game while youk had a breakout year last year and before that, was barely league average for a first baseman. I dont think they should only differ by a half of a point. Tex is all but guaranteed all star stats but youk could easily not be able to repeat last year’s performance. I think you are giving too much weight to last year for youk and too little weight to his 2 prior seasons in which he was not even close to 29 homers or a 143 ops.
Tom,
Did you bounce? I thought you were taking questions about the post…
Your comparison looks okay to me although I’m a little stunned you called Dice K an innings eater since he rarely can go 6 with his insanely high pitch counts.
Personally, I wouldn’t have hit Wang for an injury last season. It wasn’t an arm injury.
Wang consistently goes deeper into games than Dice K, but Dice K racks up more K’s (and a whole lot more walks).
I would have put Wang at 8.5 and Dice K at a 7.
I also would have raised Joba a bit more since when healthy he’s a #1 type pitcher who out pitched Beckett last year head to head.
I also would not have deducted anything from Mo. He was brilliant last season. At best, you can dock him .5 for having off season surgery and put him at a 9.5
dave,
Good to know.
The Sox will be formidable for sure, but by no means are they unbeatable. The Rays have proven that recently.
The question is will the Sox be better than they were in ’08? Manny left a big hole on that team even if the Boston press would like to convince us otherwise. Can Dice-K repeat? Lester wasn’t Lester in the playoffs so he’s not always invincible.
And for all the Sox fans and Sox apologists, you mean to tell me that you prefer Penny & Smoltz over CC and AJ? And Tex over Baldelli (he’s the only new bat I can think of)?
In your heart of hearts you can say that with a straight face.
M,
You can say Lester will not have as good a year but you can also say beckett willl not be as bad as he was last year. Bucholz I am positive will not be as bad as he was last year. I believe the sox have eight or even nine starters if you count masterson who used to start and probably still can representing far more depth than the yanks even though the yanks top three are probably stronger. This is a big reason why depth is so important and theo has realized this. If cash sign another legit pitcher, he will also prove he learned something from last year. If not, he will prove he learned nothing and the yanks will be severely lacking in depth compared to the sox. We both have just as many risks and question marks but the yanks have seven capable guys lined up while the sox have at least eight and more like nine at this moment.
Neither team can afford to not have depth in everything – bench, pitching, pen. We have excellent depth in the pen far above and beyond the rest of the league with at least 20 relievers capable of coming out of the yankee pen and pitching well. As I said, we lack depth in the rotation and the sox also have us beat on the bench but not by much. Adding swisher to molina/cervelli and one of berroa/ransom and one of Melky/Gardner/Rodriguez is definitely the strongest bench we have had this century (2000s).
But the sox started out the off season as a far better team than the yanks. The yankees needed to improve while bringing a drastic improvement to the sox would have been more of a luxury.
Hey Dave,
Sorry it’s late and I have to work tomorrow, but I’ll give some answers b4 I nod off.
I did include defense. If you check out fangraphs, Damon didn’t really cost any runs defensively in terms of value over replacement (he was actually +2.7)
His UZR’s, though, were pretty poor for 2008, so I pretty much compromised between the two.
Actually, i think the yankees and sox benches are a wash or the yanks have the slight edge. The only reason tom said the sox have a better bench above is because he included swisher as a starter which just is not the reality. Swisher is better than baldelli – less of a risk. The yanks have the better backup catching corps. as well which i would think would give the yanks the edge.
I think the Sox can be better than 08 if they trade for a catcher and if Lowrie/ Ellsbury break out and if Ortiz, Lowell and Beckett have bounce back years.
In my mind, they’ll probably put up pretty similar win totals as last year.
G-Love, good point. I was looking at Dice-K’s 204 innings in 07
Tom,
But there is no way damon is our starting centerfielder next year which makes the comparisons less accurate right? But swisher strengthens the bench quite a bit so it may end up being a wash – i dunno.
Also, why would tex and youk have only a .5 point differential – hasn’t tex proved far more than youk has so far? Youk seems like someone coming off a breakout year that can go back to his former self almost as easily as having a repeat of last season while tex is almost guaranteed to be among the elite again this season. I dont think that variation among them only equates to a half of a point?
I dont know of any defensive metric that would put damon at average or above average in center field.
dave,
True, Beckett will recover from whatever ails him. But you cannot convince me that Boston’s 12 pitchers are better than our 12 pitchers.
Sorry, you can play matchups all you want, but very rarely do they matchup at all unless it’s the first week of the season or first series of the postseason. CC, AJ, Wang, and Joba are all capable of winning on any given night. No matter who’s toeing the rubber on the other side.
If Bruney and Marte are solid, we’re gold in the bullpen. I have no use for Edwar and hope he’s replaced by someone with more arsenal. My second weakest link is a young flamethrower himself, Jose Veras. But there’s a possibility that he could be bumped. That’s how our bullpen rolls.
We’ve always played the Red Sox well. The trick is to get other teams to believe they can beat them as well.
Dave, the CF situation is still unsettled. They may go with Damon or Swisher in that spot if Brett and Melky look awful in ST. I was not comfortable giving BG the job (though I like the kid) particularly for analysis purposes b/c he has such a small sample size and can’t be accurately judged
Dice k had 94 walks in 168 innings and somehow managed to have an era of 2.9. That is a lot of luck right there.
thats true – it would be difficult to extrapolate stats for gardner but both mcab and gardner need to do pretty horrific for girardi to start damon in center IMO.
This is a good comparison of the two teams on paper. If you look on it based on what both teams did last year and then look at how they improved, you’d think the Yankees were at a much stronger advantage.
The Yankees finished 6 games behind the Red Sox. They replace Mussina with CC, Pettitte with Burnett, Wang/Rasner with a full season of Wang, Joba/Ponson with a mostly full season of Joba, and Hughes/Aceves/Kennedy to round out the 5th spot. The rotation should be much better than last year. The bullpen loses 35 innings of Joba, but I’d say there’s a good chance the starters pitch 35 innings more than they did last year anyway.
In the lineup, Teixeira is a huge overall upgrade on Giambi, full years from Matsui and Posada will be help a lot, and Cano should be better than last year. Swisher is an upgrade on whoever he’s replacing. The Yankees do lose some at RF with Abreu leaving, but not as much as you would think if you include his terrible defensive numbers.
The Sox haven’t really made any big improvements to their team at all. Losing 100 games out of Manny Ramirez can’t help, even if he wasn’t trying his hardest. Having full seasons from Lowell and Ortiz would help though.
I like the Yankees chances of catching the Sox and Rays this time.
Dave,
I never said he was average or above average. Not sure what you’re referring to. As I said earlier, Fangraphs lists Damon as saving 2.7 runs more than the average replacement level fielder. The positional adjustment takes several runs off of that, putting him at slightly below average, which is fine. His offensive production dwarfs Ellsbury’s which gives him a significant edge. Adding in the UZR’s, however, which were awful for Damon narrows that edge significantly. The end result of all the data has them somewhat close. There certainly are fielding metrics that don’t hate Damon – he still has decent range. His RF/9 last year was 2.5: exactly the same as Mike Cameron’s. Keep in mind, I’m not claiming he’s a good cf, I’m just disputing your statement that there are no metrics which show him as average or above. These fielding metrics are all very shaky, that’s why I tried to look at several different ones. The resulting picture is somewhere between average and awful.
not sure if that’s helpful at all
Fielding stats are tough
“Dave,
I never said he was average or above average. Not sure what you’re referring to. ”
get used to it.
No27,
You are committing the fallacy that so many others do – you are replacing injuries and ineffectiveness/off years on the yanks assuming that everyone that was injured will just come back and perform up to their last full healthy season numbers and that everyone who completely fell off will get right back on track.
One, you dont account for new injuries and new players who have down years or dont put up numbers we would expect next year. With the age of this team still somewhat high especially all along the lineup there is little chance we will not have a significant injury this year that impact the offense or pitching. Add on to the average age of the lineup, all the risk factors among the starting staff and we are almost guaranteed to have a major injury at some point. Also, there is a ton of young and unproven talent still on the team – who is to say none of them will regress? Can we really expect the cano of 2007 back and the swisher of 2007 along with completely healthy and rejuvenated posada and matsui and no other injuries or ineffectiveness from other players? We will be up for at least four comeback player of the year awards if not more, i can tell you that. So we cant just replace all of the injuries with healthy players in their best years and all of the players who fell off last year to go back to their former self of two years ago or career years.
Two, what about all of the injured and poor 2008 performers on the sox last year? If you are assuming all of the yanks are coming back to great seasons with no new injuries or bad performances, i guess you have to assume the same for the sox. But in reality, you should not assume that for either. Some redsox will have much better seasons than they had last season like perhaps, Beckett, Lowell, Bukholz and Ortiz while others may regress like Lester, Pedroia, Youkilles and Dice k. And then, of course they have their fair share of injury risks.
So we should not say our team is replacing cano with 2007 cano and swisher with 2007 swisher, matsui and posada with a healthy matsui and posada and not consider any future under performance and injury. It doesnt make any sense. Our team did improve but not as much as your just post implied it did.
“I did include defense. If you check out fangraphs, Damon didn’t really cost any runs defensively in terms of value over replacement (he was actually +2.7)”
Does that not mean he was at least average defensively because he received a positive defensive value? If not, what exactly does a 2.7 score mean?
Sorry tom,
That question above is for you but i forgot to put your name on it.
dave,
That supremely sucky team from ’08 won 89 games. If you don’t think we can win more than that in ’09 with a radically different team, then I don’t know what to say.
Or maybe you’re the kind of person that “prepares for the worse, and hopes for the best” and you’re just projecting here.
Tom,
i guess i am a little confused as to what between average and awful means? I said that i thought almost every defensive metric would have damon below avg in center. Is not between average and awful somewhere below average in center?
Mel,
You totally just put words in my mouth right there – when did i ever say the yanks were not a better team? I actually said somewhere in the post that we did improve greatly this off season. But we will still have injury and bad performances so you cant just take every performance from last year and replace them with the same player in a better career year. It does not work like that to have a fair comparison. But where did you read that I said the team did not improve???
You cannot say we are better because swisher of 2008 will be replaced by swish of 2007 and cano of 2008 will be replaced by cano of 2007 and matsui will be replaced by a healthy and career avg matsui and posada will be replaced by a career avg posada. Then, add on CC, AJ and swish replace 2008 wang with 2007 wang, keep every one last year who had a career year at the same level, say that hughes and kennedy will definitely improve and that every one else will pretty much play to their career avg. That will not happen – no way does every player have a career avg year or better. For every matsui and wang who come back and turn it around there is another one or two significant injuries in which a player falls far below expectations… Make more sense now?
when i wrote swish above, i meant to write CC, aj and TEX
Boston Dave,
Your still not over that convo we had? Come on man – let it go.
dave,
Oops. From what I could gather, you did say we improved, but either you’re giving Boston too much credit or not giving us enough.
Even though you’re calling Tom on some of his ratings for being too slanted towards the Sox, you seem to be deeply discounting us in other areas.
Matsui, Posada, and Cano could all totally suck this year, but I still think we made significant gains this year that will float us above the high water mark.
M,
The team is no doubt better this year. My original post was to no27 who posted that we improved in every category over last year and perhaps, we did but he went on to say that every area of weakness last year will be completely turned around without incorporating any injuries or under-achievers in this years squad. For ever matsui/posada we will have a major injury this season and for every cano/swish we will have an under-achiever this year.
But you are right. We are much better. Tex is a HUGE upgrade over giambi and CC/AJ is a big upgrade over Moose/ Pettitte. Wang could easily go back to 2007 form so already the rotation looks pretty solid. i am very nervous over the backend because i feel it is not THAT strong and we dont yet have the depth to cover injuries/ineffectiveness that may arise in the top five guys. Signing one more legit starter will solve both those problems and will continue to dramatically improve last year’s team. Swish/nady is not an upgrade over abreu even when taking defense into account but if swish, damon and nady was our outfield, it could be an improvement over abreu, gardner /melky and damon. I think our lineup is fine and if most of the lineuup stays healthy, we will have one of the best lineups in baseball without hesitation.
The pen is much of the same and it was great last year so yes, all in all the team is much better than it was last year. We have a better bench as well. As I said, my one concern is rotation depth which has yet to be taken care of but outside of that one trapdoor, this team does not really have any holes at all and it would take a tragedy for the yanks to fail to make the playoffs this season. But one major injury to CC, wang or AJ will really hurt us significantly unless we have another 200 innings pitcher. I hope we can get the deal done with pettitte or someone because i think this hole is being underestimated.
I thought the irony came through pretty clearly.
Dave,
It’s like you read clear concise posts and jumble them into one of the messes that you post. Here are things that you said I assume in my post that I never said.
1, “you are replacing injuries and ineffectiveness/off years on the yanks assuming that everyone that was injured will just come back and perform up to their last full healthy season numbers and that everyone who completely fell off will get right back on track.”
2, “Can we really expect the cano of 2007 back and the swisher of 2007 along with completely healthy and rejuvenated posada and matsui and no other injuries or ineffectiveness from other players?”
3, “So we should not say our team is replacing cano with 2007 cano and swisher with 2007 swisher”
4, “what about all of the injured and poor 2008 performers on the sox last year?”
That jumbled BS that I never said is almost longer than my original post.
I did say that “full seasons from Matsui and Posada will help a lot”, but should have said that they will contribute more to the team next season than they did the last year.
Besides that, your comments are ridiculous. I said “Cano should be better than last season.” If you don’t agree, that’s fine, but it doesn’t make it a fallacy.
I said “Swisher is an upgrade on whoever he’s replacing.” Where did I mention his 2007? Right now he’s a bench player, and a much better bat that anyone the Yankees had on the bench last year.
I even mention Lowell and Ortiz. I forgot to mention Drew, who missed a good amount of time, but you didn’t even pick up on that. I really don’t think the 3 starts that Beckett missed compared to 2007 are on par with the injuries that I listed by the Yankees.
I never say anything about the Yankees not having injuries.
Where do you come up with this stuff?
Dave,
How could you possible turn this…: (my post)
“The Yankees finished 6 games behind the Red Sox. They replace Mussina with CC, Pettitte with Burnett, Wang/Rasner with a full season of Wang, Joba/Ponson with a mostly full season of Joba, and Hughes/Aceves/Kennedy to round out the 5th spot. The rotation should be much better than last year. The bullpen loses 35 innings of Joba, but I’d say there’s a good chance the starters pitch 35 innings more than they did last year anyway.
In the lineup, Teixeira is a huge overall upgrade on Giambi, full years from Matsui and Posada will be help a lot, and Cano should be better than last year. Swisher is an upgrade on whoever he’s replacing. The Yankees do lose some at RF with Abreu leaving, but not as much as you would think if you include his terrible defensive numbers.
The Sox haven’t really made any big improvements to their team at all. Losing 100 games out of Manny Ramirez can’t help, even if he wasn’t trying his hardest. Having full seasons from Lowell and Ortiz would help though.”
…into this…: (your mess)
“My original post was to no27 who posted that we improved in every category over last year and perhaps, we did but he went on to say that every area of weakness last year will be completely turned around without incorporating any injuries or under-achievers in this years squad.”
…and claim to understand written English?
very lame.
your points system is arbitrary and juvenile.
you ramble on about word counts for 50 or 60 words.
boring.
Good Morning Yankee LoHuds, I’m going to go out on a limb and say someone gets traded today.. My prediction
What an absolutely terrible article. Completely subjective while being completely non-substantive. Amazing how you could possibly make it onto this blog.
Pete – edit much?
Interesting approach to comparing the two teams and almost fair. But even as a die hard Yankee fan, come on Tom, you cooked the books when you penciled in Damon in center and Swisher in left — which ain’t gonna happen all to often. If you factor in Brett or Melky in center, as would be fairer and more accurate, the scores would be closer to equal or even tipping to the Bosox (and it pains me to say that.)
Still think that a big factor will be Posada. He might not be ready until Opening Day if even then. If Posada is not ready to catch or unable to get full arm strength back, the Yanks are going to have a problem.
What kills me is that ‘anaylists’ like Harold Reynolds believe alot of member of the Sawx will have bounce back years and, as he said it, have the best pitching in baseball (rotation and bull pen).
People like he, however, do not say the same about the Yankees. If we can assume that many members of the Red Sox will have bounce back years (like Ortiz, Lowel and Beckett) then I can assume the thing about Matsui, Posada, Cano, and Wang.
I’m just tired of these ‘anaylists’ who constantly rally behind Boston but crap on the Yankees. Reynolds said Lester was better than Sabathia for goodness sake!
this is funny how dave’s blasting cash for spending money today but the rest of the time he’s all over him for NOT signing sheets for $6M+. but then it is other peoples money he want so spend.
Why does everyone worry about what people on ESPN or MLB or wherever say about the Yanks or Sox? Sheesh. Don’t you think that maybe they know the rivalry is the biggest in baseball and being constantly provocative about it is probably good for ratings? It has nothing to do with how the season plays out. Let it go.
Besides, analyzing all this at this time is kinda silly, the rosters will most likely change in very important ways for both teams by mid-season.
Dave, ignore the blogs for a few breaths – open your Med book to the chapter on right arms – and see what you think about Sheets…
(I know that will get you to studying again!) j/k
there is no need to cook the books the way tom did. i posted the CHONE projections for the offenses yesterday and with mekly in CF and nady (or swisher) on the bench, they still project better than the sox offense.
can i just say that i couldnt give a crap about any bias at espn or mlbnetwork. yankees and socks fans sound like such babies when they cry about this. the fact is they both skew heavily toward the yankees AND socks, because thats where the money is in baseball.
stop sounding like bunch of crybabies, who cares what harold reynolds thinks, i hope he joins my roto league ill smoke him.
No comeback from Dave, maybe he is hitting the books! (probably shouldn’t use that term “hitting the books though, he’ll start calculating what his book average is instead, lol).
My view on the oft-mentioned Ben Sheets…
The Yankees are strong right now. I can’t believe anyone thinks they will not be a major contender by mid-season. You add a guy like Ben Sheets to the rotation in July or August for the home-stretch and playoffs (playoffs? did I say playoffs? lol) and they would definitely be tough to beat. If his injury is one that just needs time (as in 6 months or so of recovery and rehab) and it is reasonable to expect a full recovery afterwards – sign him up! I think that’s the same thing that Boston is hoping for from Smoltz.
But it must be that team doctors and GM’s are not convinced that’s all there is with it at this time.
Tom, nice analysis. However one vastly important thing that you didn’t account for is the weight of each of the positions you ranked. Not all positions are equal, after all. For example 4th and 5th starter aren’t as important as the first 3 since the first 3 starters pitch more innings and the last 2 starters tend to get rotated/moved around during the season. Also I think the entire bullpen together is worth more than one pitcher. Finally, the field positions and the batting spot in the lineup aren’t all equal either. Batting 4th is a much bigger responsibility than batting ninth because you get more BA’s and there are consistently more runners on base.
Thank you for your hard work, Tom. I still don’t believe baseball can be reduced to mere stats and players to mere #s, though. Mo is still the best, most reliable closer in the game……and is Youkillis as good as Tex or as close as you make it seem, based on one year? I can’t imagine so.
We’ll just have to wait and see how the games are played on the field, but I am as excited as I have ever been for a season. I think this team is going to mesh better than any of our recent teams – I just have a feeling about it.
Additionally, Tom, I think you are underrating the Yankees bullpen, which was a strength last year and very much underrestimating Cano.
Nice analysis of the 2008 AL East 2nd and 3rd place teams.
Of course the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball is AL champ Tampa.
“Yes, Crybaby Nation you can pretty much mark it down that the good old days of your Red Sox finishing second every year and finding ways to blow big games are back.”
Be careful what you wish for. The Sox finished second and blew some big games in 2004.
Tom -
Thanks for your post. I love my Yankees and I want them to win, but I am not one for counting my chickens, you know. I guess I’m superstitious that way. They are both (well, all three counting the Rays) good teams and if everyone stays healthy it should be a great season. Of course I want it to culminate with the Yankees in the playoffs.
Brad Pitt’s B-L-B -
I am not certain, but I think Sheets is saying he’s ready to pitch now. I believe the worry is that his risk for injury is high and you won’t get a full season out of him somewhere along the line. It’s the uncertainty. If he had surgery and was rehabbing, I think there’s actually less uncertainty going in. I think a lot of people think he’s a major surgery waiting to happen. Again, that’s what I surmise from what I’ve read and heard.
Lots of disjointed conversation here last night. I always fall asleep before the best parts!!!!
ANSKY – Congratulations on expecting a baby girl. But condolensces regarding the anticipated Barney experience. I couldn’t get rid of those videos fast enough. I think I let the girls go 2 days without asking for watching one, and decided that that MUST mean they don’t want to watch ANYMORE and quickly packed the videos up and shipped them OUT! Most of the stuff my kids watched was fine; Barney creeped me out. Thoroughly. If you can get away without introducing him to your household, please do so. We missed out on Sponge Bob, but I hear he’s fun. Too bad Shari Lewis isn’t around anymore. She was a treasure.
So much analysis on the Yankees-Sox. What about Tampa? They won the AL last season and have gotten better. The additions of Pat Burrell and Matt Joyce should help them score more runs. And they will have David Price starting for them. Plus, a healthy season from Upton and a full season from Longoria should mean that they are going to be tough all season.
The AL East is no longer a two team race.
True Doreen
But what I guess I meant was that the time taken to let the arm FULLY heal and then rehab in the minors to get up to speed. He is more important in late summer than early summer.
He and his agent probably are going to say he’s ready now even if more rest is a better idea long-term in order to get a larger (and possibly multi-year) contract signed now since they are guaranteed.
I wonder what docs and GM’s see with it that seems to cause them to feel that it is apparently not worth the risk?
MLB Network ? Please…. Here’s a breakdown of their “programming” today.
Several repeats of their hot stove show. Then..
2006 HR derby…again….then..
Recap 0f 46′ Series/Sox vs Cards. OK this is not too bad.
Game 4 2007 Series. Sox win.
2006 HR derby
Hot stove
Highlights of 2001 series.. The Horror
Highlights of 1990 series. This is decent
Hot stove for the 6th time.
Red Sox Memories
Brad P B-L-B -
Yeah, agents and players are always going to paint the rosiest pictures. I would think the Yankees need Sheets in the beginning and at the end, but maybe not so much in the middle. If they want Hughes to start in the minors, they need Sheets (or whoever) to be able to pitch from the beginning, no? Then I’d guess they’d want Sheets to be able to pitch into the playoffs (if he’s at full strength). But last season he conked out before the end of the season.
I don’t know if Sheets’ needs and the Yankees’ needs mesh. But the Yankees do have Aceves and Coke and Kennedy and Hughes to fall back on. This is what makes me frustrated with the whole Pettitte situation.
But one would hope that the Yankees decide something in the next couple of weeks, before P&C report, before spring training begins.
Bronx Jeers -
I hear ya! I saw that the 2001 season was on last night (and I think the night before). Knowing how it ends, I can’t watch it. And lots of re-runs. Heck, I would be happy if they re-ran Ken Burns’s Baseball during the day, or the show on the Negro Leagues. How many Hot Stoves can one watch before one gets burned out?
I suppose it will get a lot better once the season actually starts.
Tom
Thanks for the post. My “gut” tells me Matsui is going to have a great year. And Ortiz, not so great. Wow how many days to pitchers report?
Pete maybe we can have a countdown until spring training. Like the Yankees did with the stadium. Have a random poster pull the lever.
Doreen
I feel that the Yankees are going to be in first place or within a few games of it by mid-season. The off-season additions so far have been outstanding as you know. And I think we have enough SP options to ride out the early season (remember that the 5th starter is skipped more often early because of scheduling). Add a healthy Ben Sheets mid-season and voila! We become the team to beat.
Did MLB already run it’s show on the Negro Leagues?
If so I missed it.
Brad Pitt’s B-L-B -
I’ll go with that!
The Negro Leagues show was on last week, I think. I believe Trisha and Betsy watched it and commented on it here.
I’m can’t believe they won’t re-run it at some point. I’m really thisclose to getting, finally, DVR.
Tarheelyank
I believe pitchers and catchers report 2/14, which makes it 23 days and counting!!!!
DVR will set you free Doreen!!!!! lol
What am I missing ? Why all the New York – Boston comparisons ? Did the TB Rays finish dead last in 2008 ?
All they did was quietly help themselves over the winter to be at least as much of a force as they were last season.
The Yankees had the better won-loss record against both Boston and TB in 2008 but it amounted to 3rd place.
In 2009 the remaining 124 games vs. other opponents should be taken every bit as seriously as what’s given to 2 teams. Those 124 games count too.
Ah, but DVR is not FOR free!
Comcast charges an awful lot for it. I need to make certain it’s something we’re going to use. As it is we pay extra for HBO and watch almost nothing on it. I’m not sure if I can drop HBO and keep other premium channels, though.
I don’t think any disrespect is meant to the Rays. I think two things come into play when talking about the upcoming season – first, the historic rivalry is between the Yankees and the Red Sox; and second, it’s just a matter of habit to not have to talk about the Rays. I know I haven’t forgotten about them, but it’s another thing to include them in the discussion – you really have to make an effort to remember to do so.
Yeah, it is a bit expensive, I know.
But yes you can drop a pay service like HBO and keep other premiums. Maybe a good trade off for the DVR. I couldn’t have anticipated how much I would use it. PLUS, you get to rewind, slow-mo stop action, etc. right while you are watching if you want!
To offset the extra cost of the DVR, I have changed Wednesday nights at my house from Prince spaghetti night to Jif PBJ night! lol.
Good to know.
The Sox will be formidable for sure, but by no means are they unbeatable. The Rays have proven that recently.
The question is will the Sox be better than they were in ‘08? Manny left a big hole on that team even if the Boston press would like to convince us otherwise. Can Dice-K repeat? Lester wasn’t Lester in the playoffs so he’s not always invincible.
——-
Also, Drew, Ortiz and Lowell were all hurt last year and question marks this year. Beckett was hurt,Penny, Smoltz and Wake were all hurt last year and now have injury histories.
Sounds like more than a couple question marks.
I expect Tampas pitching to be not as good as they were so far over their innings last year. I expect a drop off but who knows how much, they may have a better offense and Price could be a big factor also. Injuries always come into play, I also don’t think the Sox are going to be as good as everyone thinks. Papi isn’t the same without Manny and he is getting older and still a big guy which isn’t good. Beckett is ok but who knows how healthy he is, Dice K won’t be as lucky this year, Wake is a year older. Lester pitched a lot of innings. They don’t know if Lowell will be healthy and bounce back and what they will get from lowrie at SS,will CF be ok or just like the Yanks with Ellsbury,Drew will be hurt at some point. I guess Youk and Pedroia are fine but will they be as good and who is their catcher???
Alot of the RS numbers from last year were with Manny in the lineup. You take him out of the 4 spot and it could change the numbers of some like Youk and Pedroia. Pitchers can pitch to that line up differently without Manny.
Didn’t Bay do a good job for the Sox last season, though, so that the drop-off from Manny was not as precipitous as anticipated? Do you think Bay will be as good this year?
I know alot of you won’t agree but I think the potential is there for Gardner and Ellsbury to develop into very similar players. Their speed is very close to the same. Their range in the outfield is comprable. Both have somewhat average arms. Ellsbury was overmatched enough at the plate in the playoffs as to not get regular playing time. I’m not saying Gardner is going to develop enough but the potential is there.
I posted this in a different thread so you may have read it before, and I have not read the full discussion above, but I really want to say that it is about time we stop the whole Red Sox develop better talent stuff, because it simply is not true. The Red Sox currently have Youkilis, Pedroia, Ellsbury and Lowrie as home-grown everyday talent and have traded home-grown talent to acquire Lowell. Assuming they bring back Varitek, that would also qualify as home-grown talent. They got JD Drew and Big Papi as free agents, as well as Jason Bay (they got Manny as a free agent and traded him for Bay, this is why I count Bay as a FA acquisition). On the pitching front, they have Lester, Bucholz, Paplebon and Masterson as “significant” home-grown talent and they traded home-grown talent for Beckett. They got Wakefield, Matsusaka, Smoltz, Penny and Saito as “significant” FA acquisitions over the years. On the Yankees front, they have Jeter, Cano, Posada and Cabrera/Gardner as home-grown talent on the field, and they traded home-grown talent to acquire A-Rod and Xavier Nady. They have Matsui, Damon and Texeira as free agents. On the pitching front, they have Wang, Joba, Phil Hughes and Mariano and Veras as “significant” home-grown talent and they signed CC, AJ and Bruney as free agents but have not traded any home-grown talent for pitching. This analysis does not take into account any draft picks given up for FA signings and what the quality of those draft picks have been. It also does not take into account an evaluation of the farm systems, because until you have players prove themselves in the majors for a few years, anything is possible, from injuries to bad performance to trades, etc.
The bottom line is that if Cano and Melky have bounce-back years and Posada, Joba and Wang come back from injury to perform at their regular level, you really have a core group of players on the 25 man roster that are home-grown talents or were traded for using home-grown talent (A-Rod, Jeter, Posada, Joba, Hughes, Veras, Mo, Melky, Gardner and Wang) that is comparable to the Red Sox (Pedroia, Youkilis, Beckett, Lowrie, Lowell, Varitek, Bucholz, Masterson and Ellsbury), so I just don’t get this whole “over the last ten years the yankees farm system has been terrible” stuff. Any comments?
Doreen
Bay did a good job but I think you could see a different results over the course of a season. When Manny left it was like a load was lifted off of their shoulders. From what I saw and read he caused so much turmoil there was a chance they could have missed the playoffs.
Pancho
Very good points. I’m so sick of hearing about how the RS are doing it the right way. They ignore the fact that the Yanks of the 90′s were built that way. One correction, Veritek came in a trade with Seatle for Heathcliff Slocum I believe. I think Lowe may have been in that deal also.
While I fully understand that people like Bill James use formulas to make predictions for statistics and often come very close, it’s impossible to truly predict statistics. And so, keeping with the ludicrous endeavor, here are my offensive predictions for the 2009 NY Yankees.
Damon: 8HR / 64 RBI / .292 AVG / .362 OBP / 27 SB
Jeter: 14HR / 82 RBI / .321 AVG / .386 OBP / 18 SB
Teixeira: 32HR / 119 RBI / .280 AVG / .390 OBP / 4 SB
Rodriguez: 46 HR / 138 RBI / .304 AVG / .420 OBP / 22 SB
Cano: 20 HR / 88 RBI / .319 AVG / .364 OBP / 3 SB
Swisher: 26 HR / 90 RBI / .258 AVG / .364 OBP / 4 SB
Matsui: 18 HR / 89 RBI / .285 AVG / .372 OBP / 0 SB
Nady: 20 HR / 85 RBI / .272 AVG / .332 OBP / 2 SB
Posada: 11 HR / 64 RBI / .270 AVG / .350 OBP / 0 SB
Bench:
Gardner: 1 HR / 19 RBI / .257 AVG / .299 OBP / 32 SB
OR
Cabrera: 5 HR / 38 RBI / .277 AVG / .329 OBP / 6 SB
Robinson Cano will have a bounce-back year.
The Yankees would be fools to start Cabrera or Gardner for anywhere near half of the season. The offensive production from Damon is far better and Swisher/Damon can split some time in center for the first half of the season. Hopefully, Cashman will make a mid-season trade for a true center fielder.
But for now, there is no way that Gardner or Melky are starting in center. No way at all.
“I know alot of you won’t agree but I think the potential is there for Gardner and Ellsbury to develop into very similar players.”
ellsbury may not hit the way the red sox hoped as the league gets the book on him. that’s always a risk with young players. will they adjust to the adjustments?
gardner doesn’t look like a starting yankee to me. i think it’s a bad sign that he’s even in the running for center field . i grew up on mantle and then there was bernie. gardner’s upside is probably a decent 4th or fifth outfielder.
he can’t bunt well which tells something about his baseball intelligence because with that speed how could he have not made bunting a key part of his game? and what does it say about the yankees minor league system that he has made it through their system without being able to bunt?
garnder in the running for centerfield to me is a sign that the yankees still aren’t where they need to be. i do like the idea of him being in a dave roberts type fourth outfielder role where he can come in the 9th and steal a base when everyone knows he’s going to steal.
with the poor throwing by a lot of catchers and the lack of ability for many closers to hold runners on, it seems smart to have a player who can do this on the bench.
Pancho
I’ve been saying that forever. There is the potential that 3/5 of the Yankees starting rotation and well as up the middle of the field (C, 2B, SS, CF) and closer will be made up of homegrown talent. How many other big market teams can say the same?
MaineYankee -
My personal opinion is that Bay will still be a good player, but certainly not have he impact that Manny had while he was with the Sox. Too bad Manny couldn’t be happy there, huh?
(Not unhappy for us, mind you!)
Randy
I agree there are question marks about Gardner. I’m not saying he will be a good pro. I just think to judge him on the small sample is a little premature.
Here are my baseless, random 2009 Pitching stats
CC Sabathia: W19-6 / 3.13 ERA / 216 SO / 41 BB / 1.17 WHIP / 215.2 IP
CM Wang: W21-6 / 3.57 ERA / 110 SO / 56 BB / 1.29 WHIP / 210.1 IP
AJ Burnett: W16-9 / 4.18 ERA / 219 SO / 80 BB / 1.31 WHIP / 192.1 IP
Joba Chamberlain: W13-3 / 3.54 ERA / 182 SO / 45 BB / 1.25 WHIP / 168.2 IP
Phil Hughes: W11-6 / 3.95 ERA / 136 SO / 56 BB / 1.28 WHIP / 171.1 IP
Mariano Rivera: W4-2 / 1.77 ERA / 78 SO / 8 BB / 0.92 WHIP / 72 IP / 39 S
Doreen
I agree Bay is a good player. Being here in RS territory it was fun watching the trouble Manny caused them. I really hoped they would keep him cause he was bringing the team down.
Doreen and MaineYankee,
Bay is a tremendous hitter with great athleticism who is, almost inexplicably, a godawful glove man in left, which certainly dulls some of the luster. He reminds me a lot of a young Abreu in that sense.
Tom Gaffney
I didn’t get to see him alot in the field. Is he as bad as Manny defensely?
Tarheelyank,
I hope you’re right about Matsui, but major injuries in 2 out of 3 years is a bad sign, particularly for a mid-30s Japanese player. A 35 year-old Japanese player has a LOT more mileage than a western ball player. The physical rigors they put these guys through resembles football more than baseball.
Betsy,
I don’t think I’m underrating the Yankee pen. I rated it very highly and I think it’s among the best in the game. I love that we’ve got Melancons and Sanchezes ready to come in and compete, too. I think this is the perfect strategy for a pen. Two things, though:
1) I’m not giving anyone (except a youngish Mariano) in the bullpen a 10. Relievers are just too darn unreliable.
2) Take a look at the stats of the Boston bullpen. They’re positively scary. I think they both have top-notch pens, but statistically, the Sox pen has a better, longer track record and they also have a bunch of young arms in the pipeline that could emerge as relievers later in the year, just like the Yanks
Alvin,
I understand what you’re saying and I toyed with that idea, but it got too difficult to make a clear comparison. If I give the Boston fifth starter a 3.5 out of 6, what does that mean relative to the other scores? 10 is a much cleaner number that is easier for readers to judge and argue. I tried to compensate by combining setup men together to equal 10 points, bench guys the same and back of the bullpen likewise.
Tom Gaffney
I’m not familar with the new guys the RS picked up but what they had last year was a problem till Masterson went to the pen. Paps arm was tired at the end enough that they were going to use Dice K to close.
no.27,
I’d agree that I like the Yankees chance but both the Rays and Sox are so close as to make the regular season a virtual crap shoot.
Here’s my question: Would you prefer the old days where the regular season was practically a formality and the real Yankee season begins in October
or
Do you like this kind of nail-biting competitiveness where every game is important even though you know that it might cost the Yanks their post-season
Dice K doesn’t match up to the Wanger no way, not even close!! The guy barely makes it through 5 innings every start…
MaineYankee,
Saito is a guy who had a 2.49 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP last year – in an off year. He’s ancient and could bust at any second, but his last few years have been sick. In 07 he had a 1.40 ERA. Smoltz can obviously work in the pen if necessary. Bowden and Bard are highly ranked pitching prospects who could contribute in 09
MaineYankee,
See this article on Bay’s fielding: http://firebrandal.com/2008/12/13/no-more-bay.html
And this is from a Sox fan!!!
Jay B,
I had to take something off b/c Wang’s coming off an injury and in terms of ERA, Dice has Wang beat. I like Wang but it seemed a fair grade objectively.
Hmmm, maybe I should drop Dice-K .5 b/c of his innings issues.
Tom Gaffney -
That is a tough question you ask above – should the Yankees waltz into the playoffs each year or should there be nail-biting competition throughout the season?
For me, well, I guess it’s not very simple. Getting to the playoffs after a hard-fought season would be extremely satisfying and would make the playoffs that much sweeter. On the reverse side of that is, you win 92 games, and the first place teams wins 93 games and the third place team wins 91 games. All three teams would have played well enough to get to the playoffs, and the one(s) who miss(es), it’s that much harder to deal with. Especially if the winner of one of the other divisions wins, say, 85 games. But that’s baseball.
Now, if the team wins 105 games and waltzes into the playoffs, that’s just fun. But I wouldn’t expect that every year. And actually, I don’t think even the recent dynasty Yankees had that every year. Also, if you win 105 regular season games and don’t win the World Series, it’s a lot more crushing, because it would have begun to feel inevitable.
So, no easy answer to that question, sir.
Tom Gaffney
Thanks for the link. Gives some good insight. I think Rocco is still a question mark because of his health. The reason I say that is because I think they still may not have his health diagnosis figured out. I think there is a chance it is Lyme disease. I say that from personal experience as well as reading his history.
Doreen,
Very true. I guess that variety is good. It’s nice to have a couple of waltz years here and there but also good to have the nail biters so you appreciate the easy times. I must admit, though, that I look back very fondly at the days where I could just lean back in my chair knowing, and I mean KNOWING, that the Sox would self-destruct and we’d find a way to get it done. I loved having that feeling that there was some kind of magic in the pinstripes, that there was an order to the universe.
It was also fun watching Sox fans turn blue with frustration.
Sigh, the good, old days
That is a crazy disease, MaineYankee. I hope that you are fully recovered and suffered no long-term problems.
Best,
Tom
Doreen
Especially satisfying to waltze in when you live in RS country!!
Ha! That must be true. It must be tough up there the last few years, MaineYankee.
No. I have been dealing with it for 4yrs. Making some progress but slow. I read that Rocco had it back in High School. I suspect it may have come back. His symptoms sound like it. I’ve pursued a couple of differant aves. to let him know2 my suspicions.
“I just think to judge him on the small sample is a little premature.”
i know it’s totally subjective, but looking at gardner’s stance and his swing is painful for my eyes. it’s like looking at someone with a bad golf swing. you don’t want to look because it’s so bad it might bleed into your own swing.
i would be very surprised if someone with as bad a swing as he has would put up good numbers except in a small sample, but that’s why they play the game. if gardner could hit .280 in the majors with that swing, he really would have to be an amazing athlete because his swing is that bad.
Almost had to move away after 04. ha ha
Randy
From what was said near the end of the season they were making progress with his swing. I don’t have a man crush on him, I just like the potenial if he can develop. His speed is off the charts.
Randy
Not arguing just making a comment. I have seen some ugly stances having watched for about 50yrs. Some that made you wonder how they could hit.
maineyankee-
i’m sure we’d both be delighted if he hit .330. lol
I’m not a swing coach, so I certainly can’t tell you whether his swing can work or not. I do know that they’ve tinkered with it and he definitely drove the ball a lot more in AAA this year than he had previously. It’s tough to tell how much is swing and how much is natural adjustment to better major league pitching. He did look much better on his second call-up.
the question is this: what kind of line does BG need to put up in order to be an asset? .270 .340 .390 (b/c that’s pretty much what he put up August-October). Will that be enough, with his wheels, to make him a positive in the lineup?
I’m not sure the Yankees will return to the dynasty days of the 90s because those were Gene Michael’s teams. It will be interesting to see if they will make it work this year.
Sean,
I think those days are gone for the near future. My reasoning for that is this:
1) No team in history, except for the 30s Yankees has ever put together a stretch like that, and that’s for a reason: baseball is just too fickle. It depends a lot on hot streaks, cold streaks, health and just plain luck. That dynasty team was a freak of nature the way they could always focus at the right time. There’s no way to guarantee post-season success, yet somehow they did it. They had some kind of magic or chemistry that can’t be measured.
2) The dynasty teams didn’t have a Red Sox or Rays team to compete against. Each of the best teams in their run had gaping holes. The Rangers jumped off to great starts every year to die in the dog days each season and they had no pitching. The A’s had no pen. All the Yanks had to do was hang in and work the starters out of the game. The Braves pitchers were not built for the post-season and the Red Sox were… the Red Sox (plus they had no pen, either).
Things are very different this time around. Boston and the Rays don’t have a gaping, tragic flaw which is sure to bring about their demise.