Which of these pitchers would you want?
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- February
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Pitcher A:
14-14, 4.54 ERA, 204 IP, 1.412 WHIP in 2008 – Age 37, 2009 salary of about $11 million
Pitcher B:
10-7, 4.22 ERA, 194 IP, 1.402 WHIP in 2008 – Age 27, 2009 salary of $12 million
Pitcher C:
13-9, 3.09 ERA, 198 IP, 1.150 WHIP in 2008 – Age 30, 2009 salary of $13 million
Those pitchers? Andy Pettitte, Oliver Perez and Ben Sheets. Assuming Pettitte does about what he did last year, he’d make near $11 million this year; Perez is reported to be on the verge of signing a three-year, $36 million deal with the Mets; Sheets is still unsigned, but turned down arbitration which would have given him a raise from his $11 million salary last year. I put $13 million out as a semi-reasonable estimation at what he’ll get when he finally signs a deal with someone (the Rangers have been said to be among the more interested teams).
Obviously Pettitte has history with the Yankees, but looking at those prices – and even knowing you’d have to give Perez three years and, probably, Sheets at least two, would you still pick Pettitte’s one-year deal as the one you’d want?
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on Monday, February 2nd, 2009 at 3:06 pm by Sam Borden.
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Chad Jennings
Yes, I would take Andy. Perez is a head case, who only pitches well against certain teams and lacks control. Sheets has got a bad MRI and could be the second coming of Carl Pavano. I’d take Andy every day of the week and twice on Sunday.
Yes, I would still want Andy as my starter. Last year his numbers weren’t anything special, but he was pitching in the hardest league, while the other two were in the national league, a step down from the American. Andy has always been healthy, and Perez and Sheets haven’t proven they can stay healthy for a full season. Andy’s incentive based salary is perfect because the better he pitches the closer to 12 million he gets.
I think if Sheets was going to get 13 million, he would have gotten it already.
At this time of year, very few teams have 13 million for players without injury histories. A guy like Sheets? That’s a big risk.
He’s probably looking at a Smoltz/Pettitte-like deal. 5-6 million guaranteed, plus incentives.
Maybe he can push the guarantee to 8 million.
13 million? Seems a little high to me, given where teams are budget-wise this late into the off-season.
I think the length of contract for Pettitte is huge. Also, unlike the other two deals, if Pettitte gets hurt, the amount he gets paid gays down huge. With Hughes in the mix, signing another pitcher to a long-term deal when you have four guys that are probably in the rotation for the long haul, would be fooldhardy.
Pettitte and his one-year deal makes so much sense from a flexibility standpoint, and could also make sense from a production standpoint if we get the 2007 Pettitte. Giving multi-year deals to Sheets of perez, two NL pitchers with injury histories, would have made little sense to me.
It is not correct to peg Pettitte at $11 million in 09. The fact that his contract has a low base plus incentives makes it a better deal from teh Yankees’ perspective than a guaranteed deal of $11 for Perez or Sheets. If Perez or Sheets have bad years, their teams will still pay them.
If you were to sign Perez for 3 years you would have your starting rotation signed and set for at least 3 seasons, leaving Phil Hughes in limbo.
There’s no question that Sheets is the better pitcher but he’s injury prone. I’d take Sheets over Pettitte any day his upside is so high that I think it’s worth it. I guess the Yankees thought differently. Or maybe he wasn’t willing to take an incentive laden deal. (added by Mobile using Mippin)
Yes, I would prefer Pettitte. The stats, undoubtedly, show how Perez and Sheets were superior last year. They may still be superior this year, but what’s convenient about Pettitte is his short contractual commitment and his durability. To fill our #5 rotation spot, i’ll take Pettitte’s 200 IP and stability, and while Hughes, Kennedy, Horne, Brackman, Betances, etc. continue to develop, they will have a chance to be a part of the rotation in the coming years because a Perez or Sheets won’t be blocking them. One year of Pettitte for his current price is quite a bargain.
I’d go with the shortest deal possible. They have 4 starters locked up for the foresseable future with Joba, Wang, CC, and AJ. Signing a 5th starter to a multi-year deal would basically shut out Phil Hughes, who is probably a year away from being ready. And they’ve invested way too much in Hughes to leave him in AAA for 3 more years.
“8. I think Edwar Ramirez could be the Yankees’ version of Scot Shields from a few years ago.”- sam borden
“Do a lot of LSD when you were younger Sam?”- Old(grumpy, rude and mean)YanksFan
sam, welcome to the blog : )
I’ll take Andy. If he gets to $11M, it will mean he gave the Yankees everything they wanted and more. Those same assurances aren’t guaranteed with the other 2 and both of them are likely to have more than 1 year deals.
Pettitte over Perez, absolutely. In a vacuum, you would of course take Sheets, but the injuries keep it from being a viable alternative. Also, Sheets would probably be @3 year committment. Andy gives the Yanks a solid, presumably healthy #4 or 5. He gives them time to be sure of what they have on the farm for the future as well. Sheets and 3 years would effectively end Hughes, Kennedy and other’s future in Pinstripes.
I would take pitcher C
Andy is perfect for us for one more year. After this season Hughes, Kennedy, or Coke should be able to fill his spot.
Pettitte over Perez any day. Even if you assume last year’s numbers are what you’re going to get from Pettitte now, he did that in the AL East, whereas Perez put up similar in the NL East. Perez in the AL East would get bombed horribly.
A healthy Sheets is way better than Pettitte any day, but if Sheets was healthy he would’ve signed long ago.
Throw in the fact that Pettitte’s deal is incentive based and it’s a total no brainer.
Sam, thanks for all the posts. Us fans love the flow. Where do you see Al Aceves in 2-3 years? (added by Mobile using Mippin)
Yes, yes, and double yes!
1. I would take Andy over the other 2 in the postseason.
2. It’s one year. The other 4 starters have locked up spots for years. Hughes, Brackman, & Associates are patiently waiting their turn.
3. Andy’s more likely to give me 200 IP than Ben.
4. Andy’s more consistent that Jekyl-Hyde Perez.
5. Andy had a good first half with horrible run support.
6. It’s one year.
kinda surprised the mets are going 3/36…
then again, i’m not really surprised.
Everyone wants Sheets, but isn’t one pitcher with a checkered injury history enough? Girardi will have his hands full with trying to keep Burnett healthy this year, let alone a project like Sheets. Plus Sheets has always been a small market NL pitcher, who know how he responds to NY and the AL East. At least we know Burnett and Sabathia can hang with the big dogs.
I also take Andy. He’s proven he can pitch here. Perez has proven that he can brilliant and melt down and Sheets has proven he’s held together scotch tape.
If Andy earns 11 million next season, it means he was a horse and pitched a lot of innings and was a mainstay of the rotation.
Perez can easily be horrible the next 2 years and then suddenly find it when year 3 rolls along.
Sheets could have TJ surgery at any moment. I know any pitcher can suffer an arm injury, but when a guy is on the verge of having a major one as many in the game must think by the lack of offers, he’s not a wise investment.
If I were the Mets, I’d push Redding to the pen and offer Sheets a 1 year high incentive deal to rebuild his value and show he’s healthy.
It’s a risk a team like the Mets should be willing to take with Redding and Niese as backup plans.
I would have liked the Yankees to make that kind of offer to Sheets, but only if they somehow didn’t land Andy and/or decided for some idiotic reason to put Joba in the pen.
Andy will be motivated by money next season. Maybe that’s good enough to give him a little extra motivation to make his pitches perfect and go deep into games.
Yes because at some point I’d like to see Hughes, Bleich, Betances, Brackman et al or at least some of them get a shot in the rotation. We hear about all the up and coming pitchers, but if the NYY lock everyone in their current rotation to multi-year, expensive deals there is no flexibility and the youngsters will have no where to go but to another team. You can’t keep them all but you shouldn’t trade or bury them all either.
I think the biggest selling point of Pettitte is the fact that you are pretty sure he’s going to give you at least 200 innings and only needs a one year deal. They have so many guys in the minors that have good potential to pitch, you don’t want all 5 of the starters locked up on long-term deals.
Also, obviously Sheets is the best pitcher, but he comes with the most question marks. We just got finished watching the Pavano train wreck for 4 years, we don’t need to immediately jump back in that boat.
For the structure of the deal vs. production, Pettitte is the right fit.
Perez for 3 years? No thank you.
A friendlier MRI and Ben Sheets would have been in pinstripes. Absent that, especially with the way his deal is structured, its best to take the risk with Pettitte.
All of the above guys have strengths, weaknesses and flaws. Pettitte is less flawed (when you look at everything that goes into the decision) as the other two guys.
This is one time where stats don’t give you the correct picture.
Andy was injured last year. Perez and Sheets were playing in the NL so add a run to their era’s.
Sheets, sure good pitcher — also gets a discount on his medical bills for being a regular customer.
Andy also has a crazy inning when he’s off-form — usually the 3rd or 4th, that’s where his era comes from for the most part. Maybe better defense helps there this year.
He’s also a guy that gets a lot of ground balls so having Tex makes a big difference, regardless.
We know what Andy can do in the post season. If Perez stays with the Mets, we may never know what he can do there.
actually and’s best selling point is that he is only signed for a year and you can start considering your internal options next year for that spot.
Knowing that it’s a one year, incentive laden deal, I’m taking lefty Pettitte. All our starters have experience pitching in the AL and AL East Division, so even though it was costly, we have a terrific rotation, IF, they can for the most part put in 180-200 innings[except Joba] this year.
Would have really liked us to have grabbed John Smoltz, instead of Boston, as extra mid-season insurance. Terrific pitcher, if healthy, has a great repertoire of nasty pitches.
Part of the better defense for Andy would have to be in the bleachers. To often when Andy struggled he gave up the long ball.
His pitches at times last year were flat.
Given that I still think Andy was the right choice.
As bad as Texas needs pitching, they are moving further away from Sheets for a reason. He’d be perfect for a team with an Andy Pettitte contract.
My feeling is that it was never Sheets vs. Pettitte, it was Sheets vs. AJ. The Yanks looked at Sheets in that context, went with AJ and moved on.
I still like Pettitte the most for what the Yankees needed. They needed a pitcher for one year who will throw a lot of innings.
Perez signed a 3 year deal which would not allow the Yankees to bring up any of their young starting pitchers for the next 3 years. As for Sheets there are a lot of health concerns so who knows if he will even pitch.
I also like the fact that Pettitte’s deal is incentive based so he will not be getting 12 million unless he actually pitches.
Would make for a interesting poll (assuming the choice was still there of course).
Injury prone or not, I was firmly in the sheets camp. That said I think Andy will rebound and perform much better in the second half than what he showed last year.
“Sheets, sure good pitcher—also gets a discount on his medical bills for being a regular customer. ”
LOL! Funniest thing I’ve read here today.
darkmoonfire,
Andy sure likes to make it exciting. He got out of jams more often than not.
Random thought: Why wouldn’t Boston take a flyer on Sheets? That’s the kind of smart signing they’re known for. Hmmm…hello? dave?
I don’t think pitcher C currently exists.
Yes I would. Your comparison is bad. Pettite and Perez had almost identical numbers except for the fact that Perez costs more and pitched in the National League. Pettite wins that battle hands down and between him and Sheets. Let’s see…the person who is almost guaranteed to pitch less than 150 innings next year or the person who will pitch more than 190….
“Random thought: Why wouldn’t Boston take a flyer on Sheets? That’s the kind of smart signing they’re known for. Hmmm…hello? dave?”
They’ve kind of done it to death already with Smoltz and Penny.
Dave isn’t here today. It’s his day to shave the cats and dogs.
GB7,
The word is that Sheets doesn’t want an incentive-based contract. He wants at least 2 years guaranteed. He doesn’t seem to be in the position to be dictating terms. I think he ends up with the Brewers.
I also think the Yankees will do more incentive based contracts. Especially if players are attracted to the Yankees because we’re loaded with good players again.
Well having conferred with Mr. Cashman over the weekend I am now aware of the Yankee’s future plans.
Actually, I did meet Mr. Cashman at a ski resort in Vermont and he was very approachable, gracious and friendly. I did have to promise him that I wouldn’t divulge any state secrets.
If you are reading this Mr. Cashman thank you for your time. I am the guy from Boston who you saw at the pool and at dinner (I promise I am not a stalker)!
Steve B,
True. But Sheets is an All-Star. Smoltz is a HOF, but he just had surgery so he’s even less of a sure thing than Sheets. I don’t know what the deal with Penny was. I hope that works out as badly as I envision.
I don’t think I have ever posted here before, but I am a daily reader of the site. Thanks for all the great information you provide us daily.
Pete, I think the thing that you can not calculate is the fact that Andy has proved that he can be penciled in (barring his arm falling off) 200 innings or near to that. Andy has shown in the past that with or without pain he will pitch pretty much every time his turn comes up. This allows the Yankees to say with comfort that Joba is our #5 and it protects both Joba and the pen on both ends with two guys (Pettitte and CC) that are horses. Say the Yankees signed OP, can you honestly say with conviction that he will give you innings each time out? He’s a Jekyl and Hyde type guy, you just never know. He’s also fragile mentally so if you needed him to take a couple innings on the chin for the sake of saving the pen, could he? I don’t think so. The bullpen can’t take a #4 and #5 on consecutive starts that do not eat innings. We already know Joba is going to be on an innings limit, so having bookend horses like AP and CC, to me has unmeasurable value. This will help both the long term development of Joba and help maintain the health/freshness of the pen over the course of the season. I think in a perfect world Sheets would be the best #4 available, but with his health issues the Yankees cannot say with confidence this guy gets us 180 innings this year. This 2009 staff is as stable a staff as this team has seen in many years. With the exception of Joba the Yankees can say with some certainty these are the innings we have and these are the results we should see. When is the last time we could say that about a Yankees staff?
Another angle is OP and Sheets both require more than 1 year. I would imagine the Yankees are hoping that next season Phil Hughes will be ready to be moved into the rotation. With AP, you don’t block your ability to work Hughes into the rotation for 2010. Do you really want OP blocking Hughes’ development? I don’t. OP is what he is, he owns his skill set and there isn’t much more there than what we’ve seen. As for Hughes, you’d have to hope that he will grow into the pitcher that everyone thought so highly over pre-2007.
Signing AP isn’t a sexy move, but I will take safe over sexy in this case.
m
February 2nd, 2009 at 3:48 pm
GB7,
The word is that Sheets doesn’t want an incentive-based contract. He wants at least 2 years guaranteed. He doesn’t seem to be in the position to be dictating terms. I think he ends up with the Brewers.
I also think the Yankees will do more incentive based contracts. Especially if players are attracted to the Yankees because we’re loaded with good players again.
————————————————————
Yeah, guaranteed or not, nobody is offering Sheets more than one year. Milwaukee may offer an team option year, but, this year will almost surely be incentive loaded.
Back to the CF questions from the last post, unless it’s a terrific trade for us, I don’t see Cashman moving Swisher, although he would be more appealing to teams looking for a first baseman/corner outfielder.
Expect that the CF situation will be addressed sometime during spring training or early in the season, especially once the other outfield free agents signed.
Although I think both are washed up, would not be opposed to Edmunds and Andruw Jones invited to spring training on a minor league deal.
For some reason I believe the Yankees, although they probably could afford it, even with the unsold skyboxes, want to keep the payroll just under or near 200M.
“I also think the Yankees will do more incentive based contracts. Especially if players are attracted to the Yankees because we’re loaded with good players again.”
That may serve as more of a deterrent than you think. Incentives are going to be based largely on plate appearances or innings pitched/appearances made, depending on whether you’re a pitcher or hitter. Being loaded with good players leaves less opportunity for lesser players to get opportunities (as an example, Wigginton would be a good guy to have, but you could never get him here on an incentive based contract because his playing opportunities would be minimal).
Steve B,
Maybe. But we’ve gone from “never” doing incentive based contracts to “sometimes”. The upper hand is clearly with the clubs, so it’ll be interesting to see just how badly some of the big names want to work. I also saw a lot of 1 year contracts in my crystal ball before some guy threw it at the vending machine.
he one issue with Wigginton is, he can’t play shortstop and Berroa isn’t anybody’s answer. He hasn’t hit or fielded since his rookie year in 2003.
You would have to go with Pettite by default in my opinion. Since we are only looking at one year, andy offers the best bang for your buck. Having Sheets and Burnett would scare me on a injury standpoint. One or both of them has a decent chance of getting hurt and also Sheets would want too much money. For Perez, there is no way he would take a 1 year deal and having him for 3+ at $10+ mill/year would be a terrible signing. He may not even make it pass this year, let alone 3 years. So Andy wins because you know for the most part what he is going to give you and the other two are too risky for a number 5 starter. He is just a one year renter(I’m sorry and sad to say that)till next year where a young arm will step up.
Sheets isn’t just injury-prone, he’s injured. Option C means signing a bona fide ace who unfortunately is being held together with baling wire, duct tape, and occasional animal sacrifices to the baseball gods.
If the Yankees were (are?) looking for a 7th or 8th starter, Sheets would be a great acquisition because of his upside. But we needed a reliable 200-inning guy to complete the rotation, so Pettitte was the perfect fit.
BTW, Pettitte is flat-out a better pitcher than Perez, nevermind the length of contract. That part of the survey is a no-brainer.
Correction: ***The*** one issue with
It was never AJ vs. Sheets. It was AJ vs. Lowe and most of the baseball people preferred AJ. Especially after they signed CC because AJ’s ceiling is higher.
If they missed on CC, I think they would have signed Lowe first and then really think about whether or not to sign AJ.
It was Pettitte vs. Sheets (prior to the Yankees viewing Sheets’ MRI’s).
Their biggest worry was his back more than anything else. Joel Sherman correctly reported a few weeks ago that the Yankees are shying away from pitchers with, or have had, back issues.
Call it the “Randy Johnson/Boomer Wells rule”. There is nothing more uncertain than a pitcher with a bad back.
You never know when its going to go out. If it happens at the wrong time (see Wells in the ‘03 WS), you are cooked.
Its made the Yankees very leery of pitchers with bad back histories.
The reason why they want to lower the payroll has nothing to do with sales. They will still draw over 4 million people this year.
They are tired of having to pay so much back to MLB in luxury tax payments. That’s why they want to reduce payroll.
For all the reasons stated above by others, of course I would choose Andy Pettitte over the other two.
Yes…ONE YEAR DEAL!!! we got good arms coming up. we don’t want to block them with longer deals. It’s that simple. and petitte is a lock for 200+.
M:
Sometimes? The Yankees have ONE contract where the lionshare of the money to be earned is based on incentives.
The type of player who will take that type of deal is someone like Pettitte, older, battered a little in ‘08 and with minimal options. Similar to Smoltz in Boston. High end players in the primes of their career will NEVER accept such a deal.
Any validity to “sources say” Perez getting 3/36 to go back to Mets?
I’m OK with having Pettitte secured for a year. As Sam said his final (upcoming) year won’t be as good as Moose’s but he’ll be good enough to be the team’s 5th best pitcher.
To take his likely need for surgery into consideration, a Sheets contract would have had to be structured with short-term performance pay thresholds/incentives, and a team option later on.
Since Perez has been signed to a 3 year 36M contract by the Mets, we can see how he performs, at age 30 after 3 years pitching in NY, for a future contract.
Ben Sheets, supposedly has bad mechanics, a bad back, and bad pitching shoulder and forearm, with the potential for TJ surgery lingering down the road. No thanks. Also think Peavy, unless he changes his delivery, will be headed for futher trouble.
Steve B,
I’m not arguing with you.
And of course I wasn’t thinking about the Teixeiras of the world. Just guys who were willing to sign a 1 year contract. The Gary Paytons of the world. Hopefully it ends up better than that of course.
Not many “high end” players in their primes with major health issues are getting guarenteed multiple year conttracts anytime soon.
ANSKY- from MLB trade rumors:
http://blogs.nypost.com/sports....._info.html
When Andy is healthy, he is just as good. Sheets is a huge injury risk, and perez is awful. If Andy can stay healthy, I would project his numbers to be far better than last years.
Sam, if Pettitte repeats his 2008 (over 200 innings, ERA around league average) he will be worth more than $11 million. If he gets hurt, the Yankees will only have to pay him a fraction of that amount.
If Sheets is such a good acquisition, why hasn’t any team signed him? Why isn’t there even a reported offer on the table? Because no one likes what Sheets’s medical reports show.
Sheets is an ideal case for an incentive-laden contract. He’ll accept one eventually if he wants to pitch in 2009.
“It was Pettitte vs. Sheets (prior to the Yankees viewing Sheets’ MRI’s).”
Doesn’t make sense to me. Sheets, MRI’s aside, was in a different payroll class than Andy ($$, years). If his medicals were all clean, the Yanks could not have afforded to sign CC, AJ, Tex and Sheets and keep their payroll anywhere near where they said they wanted it to be. So they couldn’t have been looking at Sheets to replace Andy, IMO.
I agree they looked at Lowe in the AJ context as well but I wasn’t discussing Lowe.
ANSKY
February 2nd, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Any validity to “sources say” Perez getting 3/36 to go back to Mets?
I’m OK with having Pettitte secured for a year. As Sam said his final (upcoming) year won’t be as good as Moose’s but he’ll be good enough to be the team’s 5th best pitcher.
To take his likely need for surgery into consideration, a Sheets contract would have had to be structured with short-term performance pay thresholds/incentives, and a team option later on.
————————————————————
You can’t say that Pettitte won’t put up a 2008 Mussina type year. Nobody at the start of 2008 thought Mussina was going to be the Mussina of 2008, either.
“Not many “high end” players in their primes with major health issues are getting guarenteed multiple year conttracts anytime soon.”
I don’t know how often that ever happened. Don’t think this year is any different in that regard.
At the risk of rehashing all things Pettitte — today is Groundhog Day after all — if you look at his peropheral stats for 2008, there’s not one thing that accounts for his 4.54 ERA other than bad luck. His strikeouts, BBs, HR rate, line drive percentage, etc., were ALL in line with his career averages. He didn’t pitch badly at all; he just happened to get bad results. Considering that he was also hurt, it’s no wonder he was expecting the Yankees to offer more money than they did.
Now that Pettitte’s signed, is it worth short-term performance pay thresholds/incentives (at low base salary) with no no-trade clause and a team option later on for Sheets? Just send him to Dr Andrews if his arm’s in that bad of condition right now, and see if he can earn the option pick-up a year or so later when Pettitte’s gone.
In the meantime, Hughes is going to get his shot soon too. Someone in the rotation is going to need a break at some point this year. Imagine having someone like Sheets ready to compete for a spot in the ‘10 or ‘11 rotation? (but only if he’s proven to be healthy of course)
“They are tired of having to pay so much back to MLB in luxury tax payments. That’s why they want to reduce payroll.”
With the big reduction in revenue sharing they are going to get from the new Stadium capital outlays you would have thought the Yanks would not be so hung up on the luxury tax. Money is, after all, money.
Wave Your Hat
February 2nd, 2009 at 4:10 pm
“Not many “high end” players in their primes with major health issues are getting guarenteed multiple year conttracts anytime soon.”
I don’t know how often that ever happened. Don’t think this year is any different in that regard.
————————————————————
The last one I can remember is Jon Lieber and to a certain extent Dotel.
Sam,
Decent analysis except one thing. We know what Andy can do in NY and the AL East. We have 2 unknowns coming to town plus Joba. I think they wanted a “sure thing” even if the sure thing is not quite as good as what another unknown quantity could give. NY is different and the AL East is tougher than the NL Central. Not to nitpick but this is not a trivial issue given all the flops that were good elsewhere before joining our staff.
Now if Sheets would have taken 5.5 mill plus incentives maybe I would think differently but he won’t and Andy did.
I think this was the right call.
Hey, randy l, how about signing Sheets to that minor league deal you were talking about earlier? Hee hee. Just kidding.
Bynum out 8-12 weeks. No surgery. Don’t be too gleeful, SoS.
Have a good day, guys.
SJ44-
“They are tired of having to pay so much back to MLB in luxury tax payments. That’s why they want to reduce payroll.”
Currently it’s going to be figured at 40% over 162M[includes payroll and benefits] for 2009, going up by 8M in each of the following two years.
How much, approximately, do we save from paying revenue sharing. Isn’t it adjusted due to the costs of the new stadium?
The Yankees knew Sheets MRI wasn’t going to be “clean” enough for him to get the AJ-sized contract he was hoping for in ST.
They were hoping he was healthy enough to warrant the 10 million in guaranteed money they had slotted (Pettitte’s original offer) for what his role would have been on the team.
They would have gone 2 years (with an option for a third year, depending on health) if they were comfortable with his health.
That would have easily fit into the budget they set for the start of the season.
Unfortunately for Sheets, they weren’t comfortable with h is medicals. He also wasn’t (and as of yet, still isn’t) interested in a one year deal.
At some point, you have to move on, which the Yankees did, and reached a compromise with Pettitte.
GB7
Agreed, there’s no crystal ball. I was right in there with everyone else doubting Moose a year ago.
If we only count on Pettitte going 14-12/4.50 but he goes 17-9/4.00, then we’ll all be real happy to see it. If it turns out the other way around we won’t be happy.
I’m just taking the conservative approach … if he can do better I’d love to see it.
Dr. James Andrews: I’ll take Pitcher C, please!
Yes, Because andy is postseason tested and proven as well as the ability to handle NY and less of an injury risk then Ben Sheets, and if he DOES get injured he won’t make $11 million so he only gets money for eating innings which is great for all involved…
I would still take Pettitte because Sheets is too much of an injury risk and Perez is just an enigma. They know what they are going to get with Pettitte and it will probably be better then last year, now he is the 4th starter not the 2 and he doesn’t have to pitch in pain like he had to last yr.
randy (from previous thread),
I agree with you that Livan will pitch in the majors at some point this season. Some pitching-poor team will sign him for cheap to eat innings.
From what you said about avoiding using Hughes as a designated 6th starter, I think we are also in agreement about how the team should proceed with filling gaps should a starter get injured. Of course, if it’s late in the season and Hughes is dominating in AAA, we will have an interesting problem on our hands.
Since you like consistent pitchers, I’m sure you’re glad the Yankees never made a play for Ollie Perez.
“They were hoping he was healthy enough to warrant the 10 million in guaranteed money they had slotted (Pettitte’s original offer) for what his role would have been on the team.”
SJ, I’m not saying that wasn’t what you were told, but it still doesn’t make sense to me because (A) you can’t parse the medicals that finely, B) if the Yanks thought they could go $20MM/2 years, I’m sure other teams would have gone substantially higher, and (C) they would have been locking out all of their young pitchers.
So if you are correct, IMO in my opinion they were never interested in Sheets at all.
if i recall correctly not to many here wanted aj and cc was not comingh to nyc. texeria was staying in angel land. now everyone says they were in favor of these signings. make up your minds.
How exactly is, not wanting to help fund your competitors “being hung up” on money.
Have they not spent money this off-season? At last count, over $423 million in guaranteed contracts.
At some point though, and for the life of me I can’t understand why some Yankee fans are unable to understand this, even the Yankees have a budget.
They don’t want to keep raising payroll if they don’t need to do so.
They also don’t want to keep contributing to the luxury tax pool in such large numbers. All that does is funnel money to their competitors to keep their franchises going. How is that good for the Yankees?
Despite getting a break on revenue sharing, they still have to pay off the bonds on a new stadium.
No matter which way you slice it, they have a 1 billion dollar debt on the franchise they didn’t have 2 years ago. That debt will be on the books for many, many years.
I can’t blame them looking to lower payroll in certain circumstances. It certainly isn’t hurting the roster.
This is the most complete roster the Yankees have had going into ST in a very long time.
Pete must have sent Sam an email: “Sam, thanks for taking over the blog in my absence. If things get slow, post something about whether the Yanks should have re-signed Pettitte. That’s usually good for about 600 comments. All the best. – Pete”
GB7-
Dotel was more a “flyer” type deal IMO, but your memory is good on Lieber.
I know many of you do not feel a need to add another arm to the bullpen, but if Juan Cruz ends up signing somewhere for 3M on a one year contract, I believe that will be a steal.
Flourished as a reliever the last two years, but also has starting experience. More confidence in having him then relying on Giese, Aceves, Robertson, Ramirez, or Veras, and concerned about Rivera coming off “minor” shoulder surgery.
Melancon unproven and Coke, a September callup, still unproven in the AL East-toughest division in baseball.
Juan Cruz will sign for more than one year, IMO.
Good Points, Sam
——-
BD
“Pete must have sent Sam an email: “Sam, thanks for taking over the blog in my absence. If things get slow, post something about whether the Yanks should have re-signed Pettitte. That’s usually good for about 600 comments. All the best. – Pete”
——–
funny!!
They were interested in Sheets, Wave. Very interested. Baseball-wise, the Yankees loved the guy.
Unfortunately, his medicals didn’t pan out.
If you don’t want to believe they were interested in him, ok by me.
Not a lot of teams were going to pay him anything over 8 million in a multi-year deal, given his medicals. That’s why he’s still out there.
If the Yankees could have gotten him (back issues aside obviously) for 2/20 with a vesting option(s) that could get the deal to over 30 million, that was on the table.
His back issues made it impossible though for them to move forward and they passed.
In the end, I think the rotation is balanced better with Pettitte being the second lefty in it.
I like having 2 lefties in the rotation. I think it gives the Yankees better balance and better matchups against the teams they need to beat to make the playoffs.
I choose Andy because I like the way he stares over his glove.
I would take Perez but the Mets already did that. 3 year deal for a 27 yr old guy is a steal.
Trader- I was against Cruz at first but you can never have enough pen arms and as I stated earlier, Bruney, Melancon and Cruz fighting for the set-up job sounds great.
SJ, others
Any Yankee interest or news on the Cuban players Yadel Marti, and Yasser Gomez.
ANSKY
February 2nd, 2009 at 4:17 pm
GB7
Agreed, there’s no crystal ball. I was right in there with everyone else doubting Moose a year ago.
If we only count on Pettitte going 14-12/4.50 but he goes 17-9/4.00, then we’ll all be real happy to see it. If it turns out the other way around we won’t be happy.
I’m just taking the conservative approach … if he can do better I’d love to see it.
————————————————————
I, too, am conservative on Pettitte’s numbers for 2009. I’d settle for 25-5, 2.25 ERA and 200 strikeouts. I’ll be highly disappointed with less.
“They were interested in Sheets, Wave. Very interested. Baseball-wise, the Yankees loved the guy.”
You keep changing the argument, SJ. I never said they weren’t interested in Sheets. I just said they were interested in Sheets for the AJ slot, but taking everything into account they liked AJ better. You want to make a major case out of it, I guess.
My argument was, based on what you were saying, I would have concluded the Yanks weren’t really interested in Sheets (but in fact we knew they were). That’s called an argument “reductio ad absurdum”.
FYI: Joe Torre will be on Kay’s show tomorrow at 2 pm. ESPN1050 in NY.
Torre will also be on Francesa’s show tomorrow at 4 pm.
“Since you like consistent pitchers, I’m sure you’re glad the Yankees never made a play for Ollie Perez.”
i never even paid enough attention to perez to consider him. i will admit i was worried about aj burnett’s inconsistency though. his upside is so high i’m on board with the decision to sign him.
as far as hughes goes , i’d like for the organization to tell him that no matter what he spends april and may and most of june at triple a with the goal of 6 innings (100 pitches) every start whether he gets hammered or not.
he wouldn’t like it , but it’d be the best thing for him for the long run. hughes is too good to think of in any way ,but the long run. being a short term solution to yankee short term problems has caused only trouble for hughes’ development
Pettite was the right choice. 1 year and the Yankees know what to expect out of him.
Plus, he may feel he has something to prove…
Wave Your Hat
February 2nd, 2009 at 4:25 pm
GB7-
Dotel was more a “flyer” type deal IMO, but your memory is good on Lieber.
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Yeah, I was thinking that they paid both to have surgery and then had Lieber all year in 2004 and Dotel for half a year. Lieber was as good as NYY could have hoped for. Dotel pretty much bombed, though.
Haven’t heard any talk about the Cuban players. Even in South Florida, where you always hear talk about any Cuban players that defect, its been pretty quiet.
Nobody seems to have a real real as to where these guys will end up. There is even debate as to how good they are.
Does anybody remember the 6 2/3 no hitter Lieber had against the Sox? One of the better moments from that type of pitcher for us.
“FYI: Joe Torre will be on Kay’s show tomorrow at 2 pm. ESPN1050 in NY.”
Wow, that’s a shocker. I wonder if Kay is going to go all soft on him or drill him hard like he should be.
Torre’s doing Kay’s show?
Over/Under on Kay chickening out and giving a softball interview?
I thought I heard Kay say that earlier today but thought I must have heard wrong.
SJ44
February 2nd, 2009 at 4:41 pm
FYI: Joe Torre will be on Kay’s show tomorrow at 2 pm. ESPN1050 in NY.
Torre will also be on Francesa’s show tomorrow at 4 pm.
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I wish ESPN would video stream that one. Would love to see who wins in that “High Noon” showdown. “Alright, Torre…pull that smokewagon and get to work.”
SJ44
February 2nd, 2009 at 4:41 pm
FYI: Joe Torre will be on Kay’s show tomorrow at 2 pm. ESPN1050 in NY.
Torre will also be on Francesa’s show tomorrow at 4 pm.
Wow. When did that happen? Kay gets him first? That should be real interesting.
I wonder if Mikey is pouting.
Thanks SJ
Without having read ALL of the comments here, I would say this:
I would be wary of ANY NL pitcher coming over the the AL. They always seem to get pounded. It’s a hitter’s league with on DH (and thus no easy outs in the batting order). So I’d have to go with Andy over either Perez (who seems to spit the bit in pressure situations) or Sheets (the potential second coming of the Rajah of Rehab).
I’m more than willing to go to spring training with this club the way it is. If there are too many pitchers who look good in Florida they’ll be able to try and acquire a big time young OF prospect or a top set up guy… there’s no rush to do anything. Between the roster and financial wherewithall the Yankees can definitely deal from a position of strength.
IF ANYONES INTERESTED THERES SUM BASEBALL ON THE CARRIBEAN WORLD SERIES DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AGAINST VENEZUELA IS ON SUPPOSED TO START AT 5 SUMTHING
Hey Wave good luck tonight.
OK, 1050 ESPN will be unlistenable. Ian O’Connor and Joel Shermnan has been added to the network. I just puked on my keyboard.
its on mlb network
That website that analyzes a pitcher throwing mechanics SCARED THE BEEJEESUS out of me. They explained how SHEETS throws compared to Josh Becket and it’s seems amazing that his arm hasn’t fallen off.
Based on his mechanics I can see Sheets having major rotator cuff problems now or in the very near future
Thanks, TarheelYank. UConn is going to be revved being #1, but I think we can beat them.
8 out 9 people on the Venzeula team are major leaguers. it does add more feel to a “real game”.
For the Yankees purpose, Pettite was the choice. He is holding a spot in the rotation for one year when hopefully Hughes will be ready to step in.
I would have taken Sheets over Pettitte on a two year deal with incentives.
If sheets could have been had for one year and 8 mil tops with a second year team or vesting option based on performance – i take sheets. If not, one year of andy sounds better than guaranteeing two years to sheets. Only because we dont know how many innings he will pitch and joba is already limited by innings.
Add on Burnett’s tremendous risk of not pitching 200 innings, CC’s workload and wang coming off a major injury and we really needed another starter that can guarantee us a good amount of innings. i DONT know if andy will pitch 200 innings next year but he would like to meet those incentives and i think andy is an easier risk to take.
I would have liked sheets for one year but I dont think we could have gotten him at just one and we really should leave a spot open for hughes next season. If he flops this year, we can always sign another pitcher in the off season – there are still some solid starters in the 2010 class like john lackey, justin duchscherer and erik bedard
Patrick Bateman
February 2nd, 2009 at 5:18 pm
I would have taken Sheets over Pettitte on a two year deal with incentives.
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Who would have tried to trade for in May?
Correction: Who would ***you*** have
SJ44 -
Thanks for that information. A bit of a shocker, I guess. But good for Michael Kay. Frankly, how could Torre “make the rounds” and NOT do ESPN, Kay or no Kay. Plus he’s had to deal with Kay for many years; I’m sure it’s like riding a bicycle, right?
ED
“8 out 9 people on the Venzeula team are major leaguers”
8 out of 9 venezuelans also know the Steelers play in Pittsburgh.
j/k
Everyone it seems knows a good amount about montero but what about guys like romine, cervelli and the other catchers in the organization. If your Wondering who else can actually have a shot of being a starting catcher in the MLB outside of montero check out this site. iTS WORTH THE READ
http://www.yankeesmtom.com/200.....tcher.html
Tarheelyank
February 2nd, 2009 at 5:34 pm
ED
“8 out 9 people on the Venzeula team are major leaguers”
8 out of 9 venezuelans also know the Steelers play in Pittsburgh.
j/k
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You Tarheels wouldn’t be so cruel if you wore shoes. That was just nasty. LMAO.
Forgetting that Andy pitches in the AL East?! + he ain’t gonna get injured/tired shoulder due to insufficient pre-season preparation.
Add at least a run to NL pitchers coming over to the AL… it’s Andy hands down
Pettitte is gonna be this years Moose
I can’t believe this many people would prefer Pettitte to Sheets. take off your pinstriped glasses, people.
GB
I have been paying attention and learning from masters, such as yourself.
New Post—
Mr. Faded Glory -
Pay attention to what people have been saying for months, now. If Sheets was healthy, almost everyone here would have loved to have had Sheets on the Yankees. Stated correctly, more people here prefer Andy Pettitte and his one-year contract to an injury-plagued/injury-prone Ben Sheets.
To further clarify, probably many people here would have preferred a healthy Ben Sheets to AJ Burnett, but are nervously satisfied with an AJ Burnett who might have turned the injury corner over a Ben Sheets who is probably thisclosetoapproaching the injury corner.
What a great half-time show, but does anyone know why Neil Diamond was doing all those Springsteen covers? Hi, Pete.
Yes. The young talent has to have an opportunity at some point and that time will be the 2010 season barring injuries in 2009.
yeah, andy for me, you just can’t question the guys want to. You get every ounce of andy, the good, the great and sometimes the ugly, but you always get what hes got. No question for me.
besides i think he is comeback material.
Doreen – I’d rather take 100 innings of a Sheets and 100 innings of Hughes/Aceves/Kennedy than 200 innings of Pettitte.
So DEREK JETER will be on UCF’s campus tomorrow – I plan on buying “The Yankee Years”
So you think Jeter will sign it?? lol
Quick question for the board:
How would you rank the Yankees OF right now (Nady, Damon, Swisher) compared to the rest of the AL outfields?
The only OFs I’m sure NY is better than is Seattle and KC. Other ones, even Baltimore, you could make an argument.
What do you guys think? Which outfields are the Yankees superior to in the AL?
“looking at those prices – and even knowing you’d have to give Perez three years and, probably, Sheets at least two, would you still pick Pettitte’s one-year deal as the one you’d want?”
Yes, it is still best to sign Pettitte. Pettitte is more reliable than Perez. As recently as 2006 Perez posted an ERA of 6.55 in the NL. Sheets is more injury-prone than Pettitte, and giving him anything more than a one-year deal is very quesrtionable. Those two guys both have much higher upside than Pettitte at this point. But the Yankees don’t need the upside for 2009. It’s ok to play this one safe since Pettitte is just the 4th or 5th starter. It is just a one-year deal, so this leaves time for Hughes to start in the 2010 rotation – remember that Hughes will not be able to be kept in the minor leagues too much longer before he is subjected to waivers. Also, the Yankees will lose yet another draft pick for signing Sheets or Perez. It would just be a 4th rounder, but even so, forfeiting 4 of your top 6 draft picks in one season seems like a counterproductive thing to do. Especially when there is a safe and reliable option out there that can be had on a one-year deal and that is also cheaper on a per-year basis than the other riskier guys who have higher upside.
When kicking the tires at the used car lot you need to make sure you not only look at the window sticker but the “buyer beware” in fine print.
I wonder if these models come with a 30-day money-back warranty?
God, when is Pete getting back? Can we please have someone that doesn’t ask stupid questions leaving out vital information? For instance, Perez was just barely better than Pettitte according to only the stats you mentioned, despite being ten years younger, and did it in the National League in Shea, yet you want to give him a three year deal? Stupidity. And we all know the story with Sheets, so even including him in the discussion is senseless. The guy is great, but he can’t stay on the mound enough to be considered reliable.