Pinch hitting: Was Watching
Posted by: Peter Abraham - Posted in Misc on Feb 03, 2009 
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The pinch hitter series rolls on today with Steve from Was Watching.
Steve has been an online baseball analyst since 1997 and has been blogging about the Yankees since April 2005. Steve’s goal is to someday find a bag full of money that will allow him to retire and pursue baseball related matters on a full-time basis.
Here’s his post:
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This past December, the Yankees signed free agent starting pitcher CC Sabathia to seven-year deal for $161 million. And, most Yankees fans now expect the big lefty to be as intimidating as a bear in a used ice truck once he suits up for New York — and that every fifth day, when CC takes his turn, life in Yankeeland will be Sabathialicious.
And, why not? In 2008, CC Sabathia threw 253 innings (IP) and had 44 Runs Saved Above Average (RSAA) in the process.
However, just for the fun of it, let us look at some major off-season starting pitcher acquisitions made by the Yankees since Brian Cashman became their G.M. (where the pitcher acquired was coming to play home games in New York for the first time) and see how these pitchers with major league experience did the season before joining the Yankees and how they did during their first season in New York:
Roger Clemens: Traded for prior to the 1999 season. 1998 stats: 234.6 IP and 51 RSAA. Stats with the Yanks in 1999: 187.6 IP and -4 RSAA.
Mike Mussina: Signed prior to the 2001 season. 2000 stats: 237.6 IP and 23 RSAA. Stats with the Yanks in 2001: 228.6 IP and 34 RSAA.
Kevin Brown: Traded for prior to the 2004 season. 2003 stats: 211 IP and 38 RSAA. Stats with the Yanks in 2004: 132 IP and 5 RSAA.
Javier Vazquez: Traded for prior to the 2004 season. 2003 stats: 230.6 IP and 48 RSAA. Stats with the Yanks in 2004: 198 IP and -10 RSAA.
Carl Pavano: Signed prior to the 2005 season. 2004 stats: 222.3 IP and 23 RSAA. Stats with the Yanks in 2005: 100 IP and -3 RSAA.
Randy Johnson: Traded for prior to the 2005 season. 2004 stats: 245.6 IP and 50 RSAA. Stats with the Yanks in 2005: 225.6 IP and 17 RSAA.
Pretty scary, huh? Clemens, Mussina, Brown, Vazquez, Pavano and Johnson all pitched like an “ace” in their season prior coming to New York. Yet, only Mussina was able to duplicate that during his first year with the Yankees.
What does this mean? Well, it doesn’t mean, for sure, that Sabathia will not pitch as well in 2009 (as he did last year). But, it does suggest that Yankees fans, within their expectation sets/dreams for CC this season, should allow for the possibility that Sabathia may not replicate his 2008 success during his first year in Yankeeland. Nothing in baseball is a lock, especially sustained excellence by a starting pitcher. That’s demonstrated herein by the numbers for Clemens, Brown, Vazquez, Pavano and Johnson.
In any event, as Yankees fans, let’s hope that Sabathia has a “first time in New York” experience more like Mussina did in 2001. Because, if he doesn’t, it’s going to be a long baseball season this year in the Bronx.
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Thanks, Steve. Who is this “Pavano” you speak of? Coming tomorrow: Chris from Simply Smoov.
I think Tommy John pitched better as a Yankee than he did in his last year as a Dodger. Of the top of me head, I can’t think of many other free agent starters who thrived other than Moose.
Excellent Post;
A bit of cold water on the expectation conflagration -
and major points for no Cash Bash.
Jimmy Key and David Wells
Jimmy Key was pretty darn good as a FA aquisition.
CC is better than all those pitchers.
Jose Contreras and Orlando Hernandez were two FA acquisitions who were pretty damn good their first year. If McNamee is to be believe, Clemens was juicing in 1998 but not 1999, so that would have had something to do with it, maybe. Randy Johnson got old and switched from the PCL to the AL East. Brown had the crappy back. Pavano was a one-year wonder. Honestly, I don’t see how any of these guys are relevant to Sabathia beyond a superficial level.
Without a doubt. Key went from a 13-13 record and a 3.53 ERA in Toronto to 18-6 and 3.00 ERA and followed it with a 17-4 and 3.27 ERA. Then, the injuries killed him. He did rebound, though when he went to Baltimore.
Interesting information.
I constantly preach about not looking at a players’ stats elsewhere (example Johan Santana with the Mets) and being tempted to think that the stats would be identical in the Bronx. I continue to maintain that not all players thrive in the Bronx. It isn’t surprising at all to me that some pitchers have comparative down years when the come to the Bronx and (if they survive the first year) manage to bounce back. Clemens is an example.
To me what a pitcher will manage to do his first year in the Bronx is as much a function of his ability to ignore the pressures of the Yankee potlight and the NY press as much as anything else.
I meant spotlight and not potlight. There must have been something on television about Michael Phelps when I was posting!
The unfortunate part about the Randy Johnson acquisiton is that it became something that George had decided he was going to have, and Garigiola’s refusal to budge for several years meant that we ended up getting an older and more injured version of Johnson. Had the Yankees gotten Johnson when George first talked about wanting him on the team, I truly believe we would have had a pitcher who was still virtually unhittable.
m. that review is more in line with many more reviews outside the soot grime that has pollutted of manhattan and has clouded yankee fan visions and clearity..someone here said a few nights ago that many here will feel foolish for all the ranting and sparking a joe torre witch hunt.he went on to tell everyone thaty they may even sense a feeling shame.that pat m dude has been gone since, but at leqast randy 1 dude is still welecomed…Hd didn’t bring up the swquating clubhouse rank,Torre will win an espy come late summer,and just think you clowns were all behind him..on the 161 st street subway station that is..chumps
jerome,
Dude. Relax. Why do you take it so personally? No one has a problem with Torre, just the personal stuff he divulged. And it’s not just us. Respected people within the game and who cover the game said, “Why this? Why now?”
Yes, it’s a beautiful book. But why you gotta divulge personal things? If it’s such a beautiful chronicle of the Yankee years, you don’t need those little juicy “nuggets”.
Torre’s not a god. He’s made mistakes and there’s nothing wrong with calling him on those mistakes.
When people call out Phil Jackson or Tony Dungy or whomever you want to name, people don’t get bent out of shape. Put the haterade down.
Torre winning an espy? Will he show up to pick up the award?
Yet another reason to love Mussina.
And I don’t know if the Mussina quote about Mariano is true or not, but if it is, I’ll be upset.
Torre allowing it to stay in the book is his indirect way of blaming the failures on Mo. But what a coward, he lets Verducci and Mussina do the dirty work. They said it, but he meant it.
I’m going to stop now. I’ve suppressed a lot of anger about this book and I don’t want to get into it with you.
My main concern is the Yankees. Thanks to Torre for the good times and good luck to him in all his endeavors (unless it’s against the Yankees on the field).
Feelin pretty good about the team right now…
1. Damon LF
2. Jeter SS
3. Teixeira 1B
4. Rodriguez 3B
5. Matsui DH
6. Nady RF
7. Cano 2B
8. Posada C
9. Gardner CF
Bench: Swisher(OF, 1B), Cabrera(OF), Berroa(IF) Molina(C)
LHSP Sabathia
RHSP Wang
RHSP Burnett
RHSP Chamberlain
LHSP Pettitte
RHP Melancon
RHP Ramirez
RHP Veras
LHP Marte
RHP Rivera
Only things that really worry me are Posadas defense and our outfield arms.
ER,
Is that you? Feeling good? Can’t be.
Future looks bright, we gotta wear
How’s the last season going? If they show Dr. Green and play Iz’s “Over the Rainbow”, I’ll lose it.
Jimmy Key?! What is he? Like 45? I could hit him!
m, the situation has become so polarized that some are just not returning,to many bad vibes man.,iy sometimes leads to an elevated sense of frustration when all one sees in this made up anger,,traitor joe torre is not, manybe many here are becaues opinions are being set istone without all the information..just crazy mob like hysteria, bad vibes,,
What?!?!
jerome-
Can you translate your gibberish into a coherent response?
m-
I think that’s the wrong ER & Dr. Green has been on this season. No, I’m not kidding.
jerome,
Yes, polarizing is the absolutely correct word. But that’s the Yankees. They evoke such strong feelings and that’s what makes them so great.
Torre’s book was portrayed to be an attack on the Yankees. Against those still wearing pinstripes, those we still care about. While those reports may have been exagerrated, even the tiniest slight against our team, our guys will not be greeted with open arms.
I think that Torre may have made yet another in-game tactical error. He forgot how passionate Yankee fans are about their team. That’s not shame on us. That’s shame on him.
Buddy,
I saw the locker room scene with all the name tags (including Dr. Green’s) inside the wall. I bawled. Booooohoooooohooooo!
Was Watching,
Sincere apologies for soiling the thread with the Torre talk. Good job. Continue on.
Shocker. Steve from Was Watching has a negative take on a Yankee move. That’s exactly why I stopped reading his blog (well, partly) – he always sees the downside when it comes to the Yankees.
To me, this is one of the best times of the year. The season is almost here, the possibilities are limitless, and the World Series is dangling out there, just within reach. I know you have to play the games, but if you can’t enjoy the possibilities before the season even gets started, before the inevitable injuries, disappointing performances, and random oddities (i.e. midges) derail the season, what’s the point?
m,
Sounds like you missed the Dr. Green flashback, when he was treating Angela Bassett’s son.
Good episods – total tearjerker.
clare is back. so who do have it in for today,the new ballboys.
This is probably a first for me, but I actually agree with Wallace Matthews here:
http://www.newsday.com/sports/.....316.column
Manny turned down the 1 year offer
I say go for broke an sign Manny!
Some of those guys were old or were as durable as old men. I seem to remember that Clemens guy doing alright eventually (for whatever reason). I guess it means it could either way, but there is no reason to start acting like Sawx fans and assume it will go badly.
I’m a bit confused as to why people keep saying Swisher is going to get at bats at first. Barring injury he should have about 8-10 at bats at first all year. Tex wasn’t brought in to platoon. Again barring injury, he’s going to play around 160 games. Would you have expected to get your back up infielder some time at SS a few years ago? Its crazy. I like the depth but some one is going to have less at bats. Maybe Damon will need more off days, but he is the best offensive OF on the team. I think its going to be hard to get Swisher and/or Nady at bats unless Damon can play CF some.
I have no idea why anyone lists Nady over Swisher in right. It makes no baseball sense.
Swisher > Nady. Its true.
Everybody looks at CC’s contract as if it’s a 7 year deal but the truth it’s only a 3 year deal. If CC is not great or if the economy doesn’t get much better then it’s a 7 year deal, but in any other case it’s only for 3 years ( Just like Pettitte’s contract is worth 5.5 million when it’s probably worth over 10). (added by Mobile using Mippin)
Al had it right in the comments up top. CC is a better pitcher than all those guys, except Roger and RJ, and probably Moose, and is DEFINITELY coming to the Yankees closer to the peak of his career (assuming an Age 28 peak).
Al had it right in the comments up top. CC is a better pitcher than all those guys, except Roger and RJ, and probably Moose, and is DEFINITELY coming to the Yankees closer to the peak of his career (assuming an Age 28 peak).
Hi guys. Please note that I wrote:
~~~let us look at some major off-season starting pitcher acquisitions made by the Yankees since Brian Cashman became their G.M. (where the pitcher acquired was coming to play home games in New York for the first time) and see how these pitchers with major league experience did the season before joining the Yankees and how they did during their first season in New York~~~
The key parts being…
~~off-season starting pitcher acquisitions made by the Yankees since Brian Cashman became their G.M. ~~
~~where the pitcher acquired was coming to play home games in New York for the first time~~
~~these pitchers with major league experience did the season before~~
That’s why you don’t see pitchers like Key, Contreras, Wells and El Duque on this list.
Each case is different. Personality-wise (at least from what we’ve read/heard so far), CC seems to be the type of guy who doesn’t shy away from pressure situations, is a take-charge guy and is an all-around good guy. Not many on that list would fit this description.
That being said, one never knows, do one?
Given that history as chronicled by Steve, I think Yankees fans actually expect CC to get off to a slow start. This is a good thing. If he gets off to a slow start, no one is overly disappointed AND if he gets off to a good start, we’re all over-the-top happy! (Well, as much so as nervous nelly Yankees fans can be, anyway.)
catfish hunter: last yr in oakland: 318IP 24-12 2.49 0.98 whip
catfish hunter: first yr with yanks: 328IP 23-14 2.58 1.01 whip
Wondering, could these comparisons comprise some of the reasons we continue to play the games, and just don’t annoint the winner.
don gullet last yr in cincinati: 126IP 11-3 3.00 1.33
don gullet first year on yanks: 158IP 11-4 2.58 1.30
I don’t feel that CC will be as great as last year so I’m not expecting anything.
Thanks for peeing on our campfire, Steve.
Nice job.
D
(Not my frau! LOL!)
prediction for cc 2009: 16-10, 3.22, 210 IP 1.20 whip
So Manny didn’t even need to sleep on a 1/$25 offer before saying no? Like most other things in his career, very impressive or very silly.
I enjoy your site, nice post
Good post. This makes a case that the moves Cash made were sensible based on their performance the season before joining the Yankees. It would have been interesting to see how each of the pitchers performed at Yankee stadium and against the American League East before becoming a Yankee and then after. The bottom line is that a GM can assess the likelihood of success by past performance, there are no guarantees once a deal is done. For some perspective: Roger Clemens went on the win a Cy Young as a Yankee, Mike Mussina was well worth his deal, and Randy Johnson did manage to win 17 games each of his years as a Yankee. Javier Vazquez and Carl Pavano were disasters but each was one of the most sought after pitchers at the time the Yankees got them. And then there is Kevin Brown, enough said.
FYI – My husband just called. He works near the Barnes & Noble on Fifth Avenue. He told me there were already 15 people on line at about 7:30 this morning, complete with folding chairs!
So, I guess I won’t be getting a signed copy of the book!
Steve thanks for the post.
This time of year it’s all about optimism.
The nice thing about this years rotation is we have FIVE good starters.
- IF – CC starts slow, or has an unlike CC year, we still have AJ, Wang, Petite, and Joba. And a decent bullpen.
It’s got to be a nice feeling knowing that CC or AJ or Wang Or Joba Or Andy has your back. There should be no pressure on CC or any of them, to have to be the stopper.
You know, I only just read about the Dodgers’ offer to Manny about an hour ago, and then I come here and find out he’s already turned it down.
That’s probably why I still look for the baseball scores the next day – in the hopes that somehow the results changed overnight!
Interesting post, but it’s a mistake to attribute the fall-off in performance to the fact that the pitcher was coming to the Bronx. There are several other factors in play, such as (a) the pitcher being old and already in decline (Clemens, Brown, Johnson); (b) injuries (Brown, Pavano); (c) the pitcher coming from the NL (Brown, Vazquez, Pavano); and the pitcher just not being that good to begin with (Vazquez, Pavano). Note that Mussina had none of these factors working against him, and he performed great with the Yankees right out of the chute.
Barring injury, Sabathia looks more likely to duplicate the first-year success of Moose than the failures of any of the other pitchers named. He’s only 28 (Mike was 31), he’s coming from an AL background, and he’s a bona fide ace. I think he’ll do great.
BD -
Good points, all.
putting a 48 hour time limit on an offer is just stupid. boras is smart enough to know tha the economics of the deal arent going to change in 48 hours. in fact the pressure on the team to sign manny increases with each round of negotiations. i dont think he had any intention of signing for one year and then joining the massive group that will likely be on the market next year if alot of current fa’s take one year deals.
meanwhile, mets fans continue to clamor for thier team to get into the bidding. there was no reason for manny to jump on the dodgers one year offer within the time limit set.
this changes nothing.
Manny needed 48 minutes to decide.
I just hope he stays in the NL.
Clare
I’ve moved beyond expecting Jeter to be vocal in his support of Alex. As Captain, I would expect him to be vocal in his support of the clubhouse and players in general because keeping things behind closed doors seems to be something he has always prided himself on.
“In any event, as Yankees fans, let’s hope that Sabathia has a “first time in New York” experience more like Mussina did in 2001.”
Among starting pitchers who changed teams via free agency and signed long term deals, Mussina, in terms of results, is arguably the most successful ever. And he was lousy for two of the six years he initially signed for. I think Sabathia easily surpasses Mussina in that regard, but I think the Yankees will, more often than not over the next 5 years, rue the day they gave Burnett his deal.
i couldnt agree less that jeter needs to put some kind of seal of approval on arod. it is ridiculous. saying anything about thier relationship will only lead to weeks (months?) of more discussion about thier relationship, which serves noone. and how is this supposed ot help arod? make him feel more normal (THATS never gonna happen!), more welcome?
these are grown baseball players in thier mid thirties, they’ve played next to each other for 5 years now, how is what one guy says about the other at this point going to make any difference?
jeter is smart enough to know to stay as far away from that kind of crap as possible.
“there was no reason for manny to jump on the dodgers one year offer within the time limit set”
We’re on the cusp of spring training and he’s received offers from ONE team. I’d agree that the Dodgers were not especially realistic in this most recent offer, but I think Boras and Ramirez need to find some appreciation for reality themselves. Manny is a 37 year old, one dimensional player, who quit on his team because the prospect of being paid $40M for two years was somehow disturbing to him. The bat has great appeal, but not much else does.
Clare -
Just read the article you linked to. If Jeter uses the exact words that Wallace suggests, it doesn’t even go against Torre. It’s just a blanket statement that the Yankees are a team, basically.
It would be nice if Jeter would say this as some point, but I’m not holding my breath.
My feeling is that Jeter is a “reluctant” captain. He was offered the honor by George and, really, how could he turn it down?
But even if I’m wrong about that, the history is that Jeter is not a publicly vocal captain. He takes care of business privately.
Looks like Torre is going to tick off a whole another set of fans. I don’t care it isn’t his words it is in his book.
McNamee in Torre book: Jays pitchers used drugs
FoxSports.com
February 2, 2009
A new book by former New York Yankees manager Joe Torre contains allegations that members of the Toronto Blue Jays used amphetamines while former pitcher Roger Clemens was with the team.
“The Yankee Years” by Torre and Sports Illustrated’s Tom Verducci contains allegations by Brian McNamee, Clemens’ former trainer, that the Blue Jays were enveloped in the amphetamine use that was allegedly widespread in baseball at that time.
“I didn’t know one pitcher on Toronto’s team that wasn’t taking them when he pitched,” McNamee claims in the book. “It’s speed. Guys
were ‘beaning up’ to play golf after workouts.”
McNamee, who was hired by the Blue Jays when Clemens was with the team from 1997-98, also claimed former Toronto general manager Gord Ash “did not want to know if players were doping.”
Ash, now an assistant GM with the Milwaukee Brewers, replied to the allegations in an e-mail to the Globe and Mail.
“I don’t know or have reason to suspect that the Blue Jays wereunique and there were no obvious issues,” Ash stated. “Our medicalstaff never brought any abuse to my attention.
“We did place a great deal of emphasis on education and were one ofthe few clubs to have a full-time EAP (employee assistance program)director.”
“The Yankee Years” will be released Tuesday.
Almost any pitcher coming over from the NL is going to see a drop in effectiveness. Almost any pitcher coming to the AL East is going to see an even bigger drop.
As with ARod, it’s all about reasonable expectations. We often think of Randy Johnson’s 2005 as a bust because he wasn’t a Cy Young candidate. But it was actually an excellent season (except for the playoffs). 225 innings with a 112 ERA+ and 1.126 WHIP is terrific in our division.
It’s reasonable to expect CC to give us roughly the same number of innings and a better ERA than Johnson in 2005. If he does that, he will earn every penny of his salary.
“jeter is smart enough to know to stay as far away from that kind of crap as possible.”
Agreed. If Jeter came out today and sang Arod’s praises, it would be A) contrived as all git out and B)total horsebleep. That’s not Jeter’s style and that’s the way a I like it.
There’s been a rift there. People know it. They knew it before Torre made mention of it in his book and they know it now. It’s not a big deal. It doesn’t stop both guys from being total professionals on the field. It doesn’t stop the team from winning 90+ games a year. It hasn’t cost them a championship. Those are the things that matter. The rest of it is BS. Jeter knows this and that’s why he’s not getting mired in it.
“We often think of Randy Johnson’s 2005 as a bust because he wasn’t a Cy Young candidate.”
I don’t think of him as a bust as much as I think of him as the reason Carlos Beltran isn’t patrolling centerfield in the Bronx.
moose’s 6 yr deal was a good buy:
92-53, 3.80 in the regular season and 5-7, 3.82 in the PS
but the ‘best ever?’
r johnson, az diamondbacks 4-yr deal in 1999 he went:
81-27, 3.07in the RS and 5-3, 3.07 in the PS, 4 cy youngs and a WS co-MVP.
Very good, Ham.
I was thinking 5 years plus when talking “long term”, but Johnson’s deal certainly qualifies, and as you suggest the results were rather staggering.
that is getting your money’s worth isnt it?
If you set up strict enough parameters you can probably make any point you want to make with stats.
Jeremy makes an excellent point that anyone coming from the NL to the AL East is going to see their raw stats get worse. One of the reasons I was more willing to take a risk on AJ Burnett than Derek Lowe was Lowe’s 5.42 ERA in his last AL season.
I don’t see anything wrong with suggesting that Jeter should say and do the things a “Captain” is expected to say and do.
86w183
Neither do I, he has stood up for other players in the past, he just chooses to be cold and nasty when it comes to Alex. What ever it is that really happened between them, Jeter just needs to get over it for the betterment of the team, if he is truly a team first guy.
I’m just hoping that Steve Lombardi gets a Hughes fastball to the head and either maims him or knocks some sense into him. Win-win.
I stopped reading Steve’s blog because I have too much negativity around me during work all day, so a negative review from him, especially on Cashman, does not surprise this guy. But maybe he’s got this right. If he just stays as negative as possible and doesn’t show any optimism whatsoever, then he’ll be the most excited fan when they finally win another championship. Here’s to constant negativity!
The difference between all of these guys and Sabathia are that with the exception of Moose: Clemens was roided out, Brown hadn’t been good since 1998, and was washed up, Randy Johnson was a shell of his former self, Vasquez a never was, and Pavano a big time scrub.
holy crap, what an awful bit of specious reasoning.
what the hell does CC Sabathia have in common with Kevin Brown?
why would someone who obviously hates the Yankees as much as Lombardi spend so much time writing about them?
give me a break.
“That’s why you don’t see pitchers like Key, Contreras, Wells and El Duque on this list.”
even worse.
so you are implying this is some sort of “Cashman effect”.
simply idiotic.
“In any event, as Yankees fans, let’s hope that Sabathia has a “first time in New York” experience more like Mussina did in 2001. Because, if he doesn’t, *it’s going to be a long baseball season this year in the Bronx*.”
You can actually take that either way. “Long” doesn’t have to have a negative connotation.
A “long” season could mean the Yanks will be playing deep into October.
Viola! Instant Optimism.
Holding up CC to his 2008 standard is a recipe for disappointment. His second-half performance (260 ERA+) just doesn’t happen twice in a career, and it never happens in the American League. If Sabathia can duplicate his 2006/2007 numbers (140-143 ERA+) in the Bronx, we should be ecstatic.
Post-trade hemiseasons like CC’s in 2008 — or like Rick Sutcliffe’s in 1984 — are extremely rare. (Amusing note: Sabathia and Sutcliffe each began their respective seasons in Cleveland.) I’m not looking for CC to be that spectacular; I’ll settle for very good, plenty of innings (if not as many as before), and not getting hurt.
Honestly, I’m simply hoping that Burnett will hold up for the season so that we can get 45-50 wins out of CC, CMW, and AJ. Then the rest of the rotation won’t matter so much, and the bullpen will do the rest. I like the Yanks’ bullpen, and as Sparky Anderson once said: “It doesn’t really matter so much where the pitching comes from. In Cincinnati [in 1975-76], I’d start anybody, any warm body that we could get four or five innings from, and then I’d get the bullpen going.” If Girardi is as good with bullpens as he was showing last year, the Yanks should be fine pitching-wise. Defense and clutch hitting, those are other stories entirely.